WORKSHOP REPORT

To Err Is Human

NANCY SHELTON

ore than one hundred skeptics examined with the probability of fraud in not to teach us how to be cold readers; from twenty-one states and mind. Canals on Mars, which spawned rather he wanted us to know how power- Mtwo Canadian provinces books about Martian residents, the Face ful this suggestive activity can be. "Many attended the Committee for the on Mars, and N-rays are other examples errors result from the human tendency to Scientific Investigation of Claims of the of mistaken beliefs, as was the discovery discover hidden meaning in seemingly Paranormai's superb Human Error of the nonexistent planet Vulcan. random events," Hyman said. lie also Workshop August 17-21, 1995, at the The Central Intelligence Agency cautioned us to be very gende in disabus- University of Oregon. hired Hyman and a parapsychologist to ing those who believe such exercises are Our guides throughout the five-day evaluate psychics working for the govern- paranormal. "Cold readings work in the program, all CSICOP Fellows, were: ment. Hyman told the workshop atten- sense that the client is typically satisfied James Alcock, professor of psychology, dees that not only were previous studies with the results . . . the error involved is York University, Toronto; Jerry Andrus, in falsely assuming that the meaning and inventor, magician, illusionist, and accuracy of the reading stems from some philosopher; Barry Beyerstein, professor special occult powers of the reader. A of psychology, Simon Fraser University, related error is the assumption that the Vancouver; Ray Hyman, professor of psy- meaning of the reading is contained in chology, University of Oregon; and Loren the words of the reader." Instead, subjects Pankratz, clinical psychologist, Oregon create their own inferences from pro- Health Sciences University. Alcock, posed generalities. The more personal Beyerstein, and Hyman are also members information the client supplies, such as of CSICOP's Executive Council. day, month, year of birth, the more cre- Hyman, a cognitive psychologist, dence he or she gives to the reader's accu- coordinated and moderated the talks, all racy and the greater the belief that the of which were characterized by lively reader is psychic. interaction with the attendees, and Andrus demonstrated how mystified humor. Though others' gullibility fre- we can be by visual cues. Among his many quendy elicited mirth, Hyman quickly amazing creations rhat he encouraged us warned us that nxryone is subject to to play with were the Nutty Nuts and Ray Hyman shows a model of the errors both in belief and action. He Piltdown skull (photo: Gerald Shelton). Bewildering Blocks. He challenged our explained that Piltdown man, supposedly auditory perception by playing his Never- an early man but reconstructed by hoax- flawed, but their psychic accuracy was Ending Chords on the piano. While ers from human and animal bones, about 15 percent. The problem was that watching his hands drop to lower octaves, fooled borh laypeople and scientists for no one could determine which 15 per- we all "heard" the chords ascending. about 40 years. Was it a clever hoax? cent was right. (Sec Hyman's "Special Pankratz, an expert in medical Hyman said no; filing the ape jawbone to Report," SI, March-April 1996.) anomalies and insurance fraud, dis- make it fit the reconstructed human skull In his syllabus "How To Do Cold cussed self-deception, a vulnerability was crude and quite obvious after it was Readings," Hyman said his purpose was within all of us. He told of patients who

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Mjy/June 1996 21 fused with pop-psychology's bio- rhythms) is the scientific study of rhyth- micity and biological clocks. Among the cycles we are attuned to are: circadian (about a day)—sleep/waking cycle; ultradian (much less than 24 hours— breathing, heart rate, EEG rhythms; the basic rest-activity cycle (BRAC)—90- minute period; infradian (a month or longer)—menstrual cycle, other hor- monal rhythms, and seasonal changes. Abrupt time shifts result in "desyn- chronosis," the uncoordinated free-run- ning of subsystem rhythms. Some effects are sleep disorders, gastrointestinal prob- lems, and decreased vigilance. Optimum well-being depends upon the various cycles operating synchronically. Yet about a quarter of our population, often emer- "Nutty Nuts," an illusion created by Jerry Andrus (photo: Gerald Shelton). gency workers whom we trust to make each had numerous hospital admissions ignoring negative evidence. Occurrences the right decisions (police, firemen, doc- for diverse symptoms within a short close in time are frequently inferred to be tors and nurses, air traffic controllers), time period. The subjects had made up, causally connected. A dream followed by must operate under these adverse condi- distorted, or hidden medical informa- an experience that can be perceived as tions, sometimes leading to fatal errors. tion. Even though doctors were correlative may seem precognitive. "Re-entraining," or resetting the bio- informed beforehand that these patients Alcock also said that beliefs that logical clocks, he explained, usually takes appeared to have factitious symptoms reduce concern are more readily accepted. about ten days to two weeks. Since out- (as in Munchausen syndrome, a feign- Prejudice permits one to feel "I'm not of-sync biological clocks favor a longer ing of illness), some doctors persisted in responsible for others' dire straits; it's their day, east-to-west flights have less effect treating for the nonexistent illnesses. He genes." Religion offers the comforting than do west-to-east. Further, change is said that because patient malingering is belief that departed loved ones will be met easier when everyone in the new time intentional and voluntary, it is not con- again in heaven. We often hold beliefs zone is on the same waking/eating/sleep- sidered a psychiatric disorder. that have no rationale. '"To be a good ing schedule. Shift workers, who have Alcock explained that we have both teacher you must be a good researcher' is their days turned upside down, and experiential and rational psychological nonsense, but offends some notion of whose duty hours are advanced from systems, which collide with each other. what universities are all about," he said. evening to afternoon to morning, have "Feelings and rationality often produce Hunches are not necessarily pro- the most difficult adaptation. (Reversing contradictory results." We have two sets cessed rationally, he noted. Coca-Cola the shift order, e.g., morning/after- of rules: one for religion, based on faith; took down its billboards because, the noon/evening would be more effective another for die lab. We feel we have company stated, "Nobody looks at for the workers and result in fewer mis- experience of psi even though it remains them." Sales dropped, and the bill- takes—life threatening or otherwise.) unproven. Frequency distribution is boards reappeared. Smokers rationalize The workshop demonstrated why such that, in tests, some individuals will evidence for cancer: "They'll have a cure errors are part of the human condition. "get it right," thus convincing them- for it when I'm 40." Behavioral change Some contributors to error are not selves—and others—that they have psy- precedes attitude change. If you get peo- enough information, overabundance of chic powers. Such convictions may be ple to act contrary to their beliefs, they w/nnformation, excessive repetition, extremely difficult to extinguish. Often will shift beliefs over time. and innumeracy. We automate as much the belief comes first: We believe, and Beyerstein discussed how the human as possible to save precious resources. then find corroborative evidence while brain evolved, and how technology, just Our brains arc not video recorders; in the last 100 years, has confounded our many stimuli never get to long-term Nancy Shelton is a freelance writer/editor programming, thus leading to human memory. Much of what we think we who retired recently from the Defense errors. Electric lights have lengthened remember is reconstructed from codi- Nuclear Agency and is a member of New our awake cycle. Jets that cross time fied bits and imagination. The purpose Mexicans for Science and Reason. Address: zones in a day play havoc with the nat- of scientific methodology is to find the 11617 Snowheights Blvd. NE, ural rhythms acquired through evolu- truth. It can also help us to minimize Albuquerque, NM 87112-3157. tion. Biochronometry (not to be con- our errors. D

2 2 Ma»/Iune 1996 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER