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Home , Australian Skeptics, Barry Beyerstein, Barry Karr, Glasgow Skeptics, Inedia, Kendrick Frazier

Vol. 16PSYCHI No. 4 C EXPERIENCES EXPLAINED

The Scientist's The 's Popularity Self-Help Books/ Lights

Published by the Commute Investigation of Claims of the PParanormaa an l THE SKEPTICAL INQUIRER (ISSN 0194-6730) is the official journal of the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal, an international organization. Editor . Editorial Board James E. Alcock, , , Philip J. Klass, . Consulting Editors , William Sims Bainbridge, John R. Cole, Kenneth L. Feder, C. E. M. Hansel, E. C. Krupp, David F. Marks, Andrew Neher, James E. Oberg, Sheaffer, Steven N. Shore. Managing Editor Doris Hawley Doyle. Contributing Editor Lys Ann Shore. Business Manager Mary Rose Hays. Assistant Business Manager Sandra Lesniak Chief Data Officer Richard Seymour. Computer Assistant Michael Cione. Production Paul E. Loynes. Audio Technician Vance Vigrass. Librarian, Ranjit Sandhu. Staff Leland Harrington, Jonathan Jiras, Atfreda Pidgeon, Kathy Reeves, Elizabeth Begley (Albuquerque). Cartoonist Rob Pudim. The Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal Paul Kurtz, Chairman; professor emeritus of philosophy, State University of New York at Buffalo. , Executive Director and Public Relations Director. Lee Nisbet, Special Projects Director. Fellows of the Committee James E. Alcock, psychologist, York Univ., Toronto; Isaac Asimov, biochemist, author; Robert A. Baker, psychologist, Univ. of Kentucky; , biopsychologist, , Vancouver, B.C., Canada; Irving Biederman, psychologist, University of Minnesota; Susan Blackmore, psychologist, Brain Laboratory, University of Bristol, England; Henri Broch, physicist, University of Nice, France; Vern Bullough, Distinguished Professor, State University of New York; , philosopher, McGill University; John R. Cole, anthropologist, Institute for the Study of Human Issues; F. H. C. Crick, biophysicist, Salk institute for Biological Studies, La Jolla, Calif.; L. Sprague de Camp, author, engineer; Cornelis de Jager, professor of astrophysics, Univ. of Utrecht, the ; Bernard Dixon, writer, London, U.K.: Paul Edwards, philosopher. Editor, Encyclopedia of Philosophy; Antony Flew, philoso­ pher, Reading Univ., U.K.; Andrew Fraknoi, astronomer, executive officer. Astronomical Society of the Pacific; editor of Mercury; Kendrick Frazier, science writer, Editor, THE SKEPTICAL INQUIRER; Yves Galifret, Exec. Secretary, l'Union Rationaliste; Martin Gardner, author, critic; Murray Gell-Mann, professor of physics, California Institute of Technology; , magician, columnist, broadcaster, Toronto; , Museum of Comparative Zoology, Harvard Univ.; C. E. M. Hansel, psychologist, Univ. of Wales; Al Hibbs, scientist, Jet Propulsion Laboratory; Douglas Hofstadter, professor of human understanding and cognitive science, Indiana University; Ray Hyman, psychologist, Univ. of Oregon; Leon Jaroff, editor, Time; Lawrence Jerome, science writer, engineer; Philip J. Klass, science writer, engineer; Marvin Kohl, professor of philosophy, SUNY at Fredonia; Edwin C. Krupp, astronomer, director, Griffith Observatory; Paul Kurtz, chairman, CSICOP, Buffalo, N.Y.; Lawrence Kusche, science writer; Paul MacCready, scientist/engineer, AeroVironment, Inc., Monrovia, Calif.; David Marks, psychologist, Middlesex Polytech, England; David Morrison, space scientist, NASA Ames Research Center; Richard A. Muller, professor of physics, Univ. of Calif., Berkeley; H. Narasimhaiah, physicist, president. Bangalore Science Forum, India; Dorothy Nelkin, sociologist, Cornell University. , author, technical writing instructor, University of Kentucky; Lee Nisbet, philosopher, Medaille College; James E. Oberg, science writer; John Paulos, mathematician, Temple University; Mark Plummer, lawyer, ; W. V. Quine, philosopher, Harvard Univ.; Milton Rosenberg, psychologist. University of Chicago; , astron­ omer, Cornell Univ.; Evry Schatzman, President, French Physics Association; Eugenie Scott, physical anthro­ pologist, executive director. National Center for , Inc.; Thomas A. Sebeok, anthropologist, linguist, Indiana University; , science writer; Dick Smith, film producer, publisher, Terrey Hills, N.S.W., Australia; Robert Steiner, magician, author, El Cerrito, California; , psychologist and author, Los Angeles, California; Stephen Toulmin, professor of philosophy. Northwestern Univ.; Marvin Zelen, statistician, Harvard Univ. (Affiliations given for identification only.)

Manuscripts, letters, books for review, and editorial inquiries should be addressed to Kendrick Frazier, Editor, THE SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, 3025 Palo Alto Dr., N.E., Albuquerque, NM 87111. Subscriptions, change of address, and advertising should be addressed to: THE SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Box 703, Buffalo, NY 14226-0703. Old address as well as new are necessary for change of subscriber's address, with six weeks advance notice. Subscribers to THE SKEPTICAL INQUIRER may not speak on behalf of CSICOP or THE SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. Inquiries from the media and the public about the work of the Committee should be made to Paul Kurtz, Chairman, CSICOP, Box 703, Buffalo, NY 14226-0703. Tel.: (716) 636-1425. FAX: (716)-636-1733. Articles, reports, reviews, and letters published in THE SKEPTICAL INQUIRER represent the views and work of individual authors. Their publication does not necessarily constitute an endorsement by CSICOP or its members unless so stated. THE SKEPTICAL INQUIRER is indexed in the Readers' Guide to Periodical literature. Copyright ©1992 by the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal, 3965 Rensch Road, Buffalo, NY 14228. All rights reserved. THE SKEPTICAL INQUIRER is available on 16mm microfilm, 35mm microfilm, and 105mm microfiche from University Microfilms International. Subscription Rates: Individuals, libraries, and institutions, $25.00 a year; back issues, $6.25 each. Postmaster: THE SKEPTICAL INQUIRER is published quarterly, Winter, Spring, Summer, and Fall. Printed in the U.S.A. Second-class postage paid at Buffalo, New York, and additional mailing offices. Send changes of address to THE SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Box 703, Buffalo, NY 14226-0703. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Vol. 16, No. 4. Summer 1992

Journal of the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal

FROM THE CHAIRMAN Freedom of Scientific Inquiry Under Siege Paul Kurtz 339 ARTICLES Experiences: Psychic Illusions Susan Blackmore 367 The Scientist's Skepticism Mario Bunge 377 The Persistent Popularity of the Paranormal James Lett 381 Self-Help Books: in the Guise of Science? Eileen Gambrill 389 Ghost Lights of Herbert Lindee 400 NEWS AND COMMENT 407 Who in and Why / UFO / Research Group Questions Gallup Trends Claim / Chemist Critiques Cold Fusion / Test of Subliminal Tapes / Isaac Asimov / James Michener as Fortune- Teller / Study of in China / China Clamps Down on Fortune-Tellers / CJR Laurel to JAMA / New LA Skeptics Group / Funny Stuff NOTES OF A FRINGE-WATCHER The Big Bang Theory Still Lives Martin Gardner 357 PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS Smart Drinks, Orvotron Activation, & Vedic Science Robert Sheaffer 364 BOOK REVIEWS William D. Gray, Thinking Critically About Ideas Mark Durm 407 Joe Nickell, Ambrose Bierce Is Missing Robert A Baker 409 Eric Lerner, The Big Bang Never Happened Victor J. Stenger 412 Michael Talbot, 777© Holographic Universe Robert A Baker 415 I NEW BOOKS 421

ARTICLES OF NOTE 425

FOLLOW-UP 428 UFO crash? Schmitt and Randle reply- Mass responds

FORUM 430 A tabloid Encyclopedia Americana? LETTERS TO THE EDITOR 434

ON THE COVER: Illustration by Bruce Adams. Cover design by Jacqueline Cooke. CSICOP LEGAL DEFENSE FOUNDATION Help Us Defend Skepticism Against Harassing Suits In the Winter 1992 issue of the Skeptical Inquirer we outlined the difficulties that the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal is experiencing because of harassing lawsuits filed against skeptics. We feel confident that these suits will eventually be dismissed. Still, we suspect that the lawsuits were brought for other than the redress of alleged grievances. For what do these suits mean? They mean that the pro-paranormalists think they have finally found a way to strike below the belt of scientists and skeptics. For years they have been unable to prove their claims of miraculous abilities. They've grown tired of hearing our challenges. Now they have turned to intimidation by lawsuit in an effort to silence their only persistent critics. It doesn't necessarily matter if the plaintiff wins or loses the suit. Their purpose is to waste their opponents' resources and to intimidate and silence them—in effect, depriving individuals or organizations of their First Amendment rights. We are by no means a wealthy organization, but we are not prepared to surrender our rights. We have vowed to fight back. To do so, we need your support. CSICOP has established the CSICOP Legal Defense Foundation. Its funds will be used to help pay the costs of existing lawsuits and any that may arise in the future, and to countersue when appropriate. Don't allow the claim-mongers to destroy CSICOP (and the values of science and it steadfastly represents) through unjust and frivolous legal proceedings. Support the CSICOP Legal Defense Foundation today. It's the best way to blunt this frightening new weapon of the apostles of nonsense.

Yes, I want to help defend the rights of skeptics. Enclosed is my tax- deductible contribution of: $ (Please make check payable to the CSICOP Legal Defense Foundation) Charge my • Visa D MasterCard • Check enclosed # Exp Signature Credit-card contributors may call toll-free: 1-800-634-1610 Name Address City State Zip Mail to: CSICOP Legal Defense Foundation Box 703, Buffalo, NY 14226 From the Chairman

Freedom of Scientific book Physics and (published by Prometheus), and it names me because Inquiry Under Siege of a passage published in my book The PAUL KURTZ Transcendental Temptation, also pub­ lished by Prometheus. Still another suit has been filed in London, England, rie skeptical community is under against Victor Stenger and Prome­ heavy siege. Pro-paranormalists, theus Books. This suit also names Tin an effort to silence their critics, Michael Hutchinson, a well-known have embarked upon lengthy and skeptic and a distributor of Prome­ costly litigations. There are four libel theus Books, for marketing Stenger's suits against skeptics now under way, book in Britain. three of them brought by , I should point out that Prometheus the alleged psychic. Books is an independent company, As I wrote in the Winter 1992 entirely separate from CSICOP. It is SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Geller is suing virtually the only company in the and the Committee for world that consistently publishes the Scientific Investigation of Claims books providing skeptical critiques of of the Paranormal for remarks attrib­ paranormal claims. uted to Randi in an interview pub­ Both Stenger and I devote consid­ lished last year in the International erable space in our books to the Herald-Tribune. This lawsuit, brought scientific analysis of the claims of in Washington, D.C., has already cost psychics. The suits against us, how­ CSICOP almost $100,000 in legal fees. ever, concern a single event that I met Uri Geller for the first time occurred in Beersheba, Israel, in on March 13 in Washington, where December 1970, which was reported both Randi and I had been summoned in the Jerusalem Post and other news­ by Geller's attorney to give deposi­ papers at that time. According to one tions in connection with the Herald- article, the Magistrate's Court of Tribune suit. The next two days of Beersheba "upheld charges that Uri questions and answers included many Geller, the self-proclaimed telepathist, heated, often acrimonious exchanges, was guilty of breach of contract in that largely between Geller's attorney and he promised to perform feats of ours. , , hypnot­ I did not know, until I returned to ism, and telekinesis, while in fact he Buffalo the following Monday, that merely employed sleight-of-hand and Geller, an Israeli citizen living in stage tricks." London, England, had initiated still In his own book, The Geller Effect, another libel suit, in Miami, Florida, Geller writes, "A student named Uri the day before we met. This suit was Goldstein decided that he had been filed against Professor Victor Stenger, deceived by the poster used to adver­ a distinguished physicist at the Uni­ tise the show. It had promised a versity of Hawaii, and Prometheus demonstration of psychic powers, but Books, because of a passage in his in his opinion it was just another

Summer 1992 339 display of stage . So he went our scientific understanding of the along to the local civil court and made world. James Randi has shown that a complaint against my promoters, a many allegedly paranormal feats can firm called Solan, and me. . . . The be performed by magicians using court heard and upheld his complaint, sleight of hand and other conjuring and he was awarded the price of his tricks. ticket plus costs, all of which came to In the suit recently filed in Miami the equivalent of a few American against Stenger and me, Geller states: dollars." Geller continues, "Eventu­ "In truth and fact, Plaintiff was not ally, I was able to obtain documentary brought to court in Israel for using evidence from Hashalom Civil Court the words , ESP, and that the complaint was heard in my parapsychology in his promotion, and absence." he was never prohibited from doing According to papers filed by Geller, so in the future, and he was not and both Stenger and I "have libeled and has never performed conjurer's tricks." defamed the Plaintiff by their report­ On page 161 of his book The Geller ing of an incident that occurred in Effect, however, Geller admits that in December, 1970, in Beersheba, Israel, 1970 his promoter "thought it would involving the Plaintiff, who was be a good idea to add some trickery named but never served with process to the genuine displays of psychic nor did he make any appearance in a power. ... I thought this was a stupid civil matter." idea and I told him so, but he insisted Geller takes issue with descriptions and I finally agreed to keep him quiet." of these events given by Stenger and Because in libel suits truth is an me. Because these descriptions are the absolute defense (or, more precisely, subject of litigation we feel con­ the plaintiff must prove falsity), strained from reprinting them here. skeptics may have an excellent oppor­ Stenger and I deny that malice was tunity to challenge Geller to prove intended on our part. We have volun­ under controlled conditions that he can teered, if there are any errors, to insert do what he claims. errata sheets in our books and to Geller has expended great effort on correct future editions. Geller has his suits against CSICOP, James ignored these offers but, in a letter Randi, Victor Stenger, Prometheus to our attorneys, has demanded (1) Books, Michael Hutchinson, and that we take out full-page ads of myself. Unfortunately, when we are apology in major newspapers, (2) that sued, however frivolous the charge, we delete any and all references to him we have to defend ourselves, and the entirely from our books, and (3) that process is costly. we pay $1 million in damages. He has An even graver issue, however, is since raised the claim for damages to the need to defend the First Amend­ $8 million! ment. If such obstacles are placed in As our readers know, over the the way of scientific research, and if years many skeptics have contested one cannot question extraordinary Geller's claims that he is able to bend claims, then this could be a serious or break metal and stop watches by blow to science. means of psychokinesis and is able to We, for our part, pledge to continue read and see the contents of the defense of freedom of scientific sealed envelopes by psychic means. If inquiry, and we will not be intimidated, any of these claims were true, it would for what is at stake is the very integrity have extraordinary implications for of science itself. •

340 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 The Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal announces the 1992 CSICOP Conference at the Harvey Hotel in Dallas, Texas Friday, Saturday, and Sunday October 16, 17, and 18, 1992 FAIRNESS, FRAUD AND FEMINISM: CULTURE CONFRONTS SCIENCE

Keynote Address (Friday at 8:30 P.M.) distinguished professor of zoology at Oxford University, author of The Blind Watchmaker and The Selfish Gene

Friday, October 16

7:30 - 9:00 A.M.: Registration 9:00 - 9:15 A.M.: Opening Remarks — Paul Kurtz, CSICOP Chairman 9:15 A.M. - 12 NOON: MULTICULTURAL APPROACHES TO SCIENCE: THE GOOD, THE BAD, AND THE UGLY Moderator. Eugenie Scott, Executive Director, National Center for Science Education Bernard Ortiz de Montellano, professor of andiropology, Wayne State University Diana Marinez, professor of biochemistry, Michigan State University Joseph Dunbar, professor of physiology, Wayne State University 12 NOON - 2:00 P.M.: Lunch Break 2:00 - 5:00 P.M.: GENDER ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND PSEUDOSCIENCE Moderator. , professor of psychology, Glendon College, York University, Toronto Susan Blackmore, psychologist, University of Bristol, U.K. Carol Tavris, social psychologist, author of The Mismeasure of Woman Steven Goldberg, professor of sociology, City College, City University of New York, and author of The Inevitability of Patriarchy Friday (continued)

5:15 - 6:15 P.M.: Reception (Cash Bar)

6:15 - 8:30 P.M.: Dinner THE FUTURE OF SKEPTICISM: THE PRICE OF REASON with the CSICOP Executive Council, Paul Kurtz, James Alcock, Barry Beyerstein, Susan Blackmore, Kendrick Frazier, Ray Hyman, Philip J. Klass, Joe Nickell, and Lee Nisbet

8:00 P.M.: KEYNOTE ADDRESS Richard Dawkins, professor of zoology, Oxford University, and author of The Blind Watchmaker and The Selfish Gene

Saturday, October 17

8:00 - 9:00 A.M.: Registration

9:00 A.M. - 12 NOON: FRAUD IN SCIENCE Moderator: Elie Shneour, Director, Biosystems Research Institute Paul Friedman, professor of radiology, School of Medicine, University of California, San Diego, at La Jolla Clark Glymour, professor of philosophy, Carnegie-Mellon University Walter Stewart, National Institutes of Health

12 NOON - 2:00 P.M.: CSICOP Luncheon Sergei Kapitza, editor of Russian edition of ; member Russian Academy of Sciences Evry Schatzman, former president, French Physics Society; member French Academy of Science

2:00 - 5:00 P.M.: Two Concurrent Sessions Session 1. CRASHED SAUCERS Moderator: Philip J. Klass, leading investigator of UFO claims and former senior editor of Aviation Week and Space Technology Robert Young, education director, Harrisburg Astronomical Society James McGaha, Major, U.S. Air Force (ret.), Tucson, Arizona Kevin Randle and Donald R. Schmitt, authors of UFO Crash at Roswell Session 2. THE PARANORMAL IN CHINA Moderator: Paul Kurtz, CSICOP Chairman and professor emeritus of philosophy at the State University of New York at Buffalo Guo Zheng-yi, Shen Zhen-yu, Weng Shi-da, and Dong Guang-bi, members of the Chinese Association for Science and Technology; Lin Zixin, former editor-in-chief of China's Science and Technology Daily; Yu Li, journalist and magician

6:00 - 7:00 P.M.: Reception (cash bar) 7:00 - 10:00 P.M^ Awards Banquet Entertainment by Steve Shaw, mentalist, magician and "Project Alpha" alumnus (Continued on next page.) Sunday, October 18

9:00 A.M. - NOON: Conversation Session Screening of CSICOP video. Sunday morning Tour of Dinosaur Valley State Park: See die Paluxy River footprints and die fossil imprints left by giant reptiles of eons past. Dr. Ronnie Hastings, an expert on die Paluxy River footprints, will be our tour guide. The bus will leave at 8 A.M. and arrive back at die Harvey at 1:00 P.M. A complete box lunch will be provided ($31.50 per person) This conference is hosted by the North Texas Skeptics, an independent, autonomous organization. REGISTRATION FORM Preregistration is advised. (Students 25 or under with I.D., $25.00. Registration fee does not include meals or accommodations.) Mail to: 1992 CSICOP Conference, P.O. Box 703, Buffalo, New York 14226 • YES, I (we) plan to attend the 1992 CSICOP Conference in Dallas. • $125 registration for person(s), includes Keynote Address. $ Q $15.00 Friday Dinner for person(s) $ • $15.00 Saturday Luncheon for person(s) $ • $25.00 Saturday Awards Banquet for person(s) $ D $10.00 nonregistrant tickets) to Keynote Address for person(s) $ • $31.50 Tour of Dinosaur Valley State Park and Box Lunch for person(s) $ D Charge my D VISA • MasterCard O Check enclosed Total $ Acct. # Exp Name. Address. City State Zip. Phone: (day) (evening) O No, I will not be able to attend the conference, but please accept my contribution (tax- deductible) of $ to help cover the costs of this and future CSICOP events. Note: The CSICOP Hospitality Room will be open at 5:00 P.M. on Thursday, October 15 (cash bar 7:30 to 11:00 P.M.). This room will be available for the entire conference. Accommodations: The Harvey Hotel, near the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport, Highway 114 at Esters Blvd., 4545 W. John Carpenter Freeway, Irving, TX 75063. Free parking. Single $68.00, double $68.00 (plus 11% tax). (The Harvey will arrange shared doubles upon request) These special rates will be available from October 13 through October 19. For reservations call 214- 929-4500, FAX 214-929-0733. Benton's restaurant, Scoop's Diner, Cassidy's Lounge, and the Lobby Bar are on the premises, and the hotel will provide free transportation to Restaurant Row. Complimentary will be available in the lobby for hotel guests. Transportation: For special conference airline rates call CSICOP's travel agent, Judy Pensack, Creative Destinations, 800-572-5440 or FAX 407-830-5530, who has arranged discounts. Free transportation to and from DFW Airport to die Harvey Hotel. For more information, call or write to Mary Rose Hays at CSICOP, Box 703, Buffalo, New York 14226 / Telephone: 716-636-1425, FAX 716-1733. Media representatives should contact Barry Karr: 716-636-1425. News and Comment

Who Believes in Astrology and Why? 0 Surveys Give Some Surprising Insights

ost surveys of belief in things public confusions and misunderstand­ paranormal have a frustrat- ings about science. MiM ingl y superficial quality to Results were reported in a half-day them. Too often they leave the session on "Astrology and Other scientifically inclined person wonder­ Pseudoscience" at the 1992 annual ing just what the results do or do not meeting of the American Association reveal. The 1990 Gallup poll of Amer­ for the Advancement of Science in ican adults described recently in these Chicago in February. The symposium pages (Winter 1991) overcame some was organized by Jon D. Miller, of these objections, but although director of the International Center detailed, it was based on telephone for the Advancement of Scientific interviews and had some shortcom­ Literacy, Chicago Academy of Sci­ ings (Letters, SI, Summer 1991, and ences, who also presented one of the next story). main papers. Others providing new Now a series of surveys by academ­ survey data were Daniel Boy and Guy ics in France, the United Kingdom, and Michelat of the University of Paris and the United States give a more in-depth the Fondation Nationale de Sciences look at belief in astrology and related Politique in Paris; John Durant and matters. They provide demographic Martin Bauer of the Science Museum and other useful variables that help in London; and Tom W. Smith of the us to understand who believes and, National Opinion Research Center at more important, some reasons why. the University of Chicago. These studies were national Here are some of the key findings random-sample surveys devoted and conclusions: primarily to estimating levels of public • Most people who follow astrol­ interest in, understanding of, and ogy do so very casually; the serious, attitudes toward science and technol­ hard-core believers are a fairly small ogy. Part of the motivation for the fraction of the population: 4 to 6 studies was the increasing awareness percent in the U.K. In the U.S. the that both democratic processes and fraction of those who say they change economic competitiveness depend on their lives due to astrological guidance a scientifically literate population and is also fairly small, about 5 percent; work force. The surveys all asked still, as Miller notes, that amounts to questions about astrology and other about 8 million people. nonscientific or pseudoscientific • Belief in astrology in the United beliefs as a way of understanding States, by three separate measures,

344 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 "Paradoxical as it may seem, therefore, we conclude that popular support for astrology may be part and parcel of modernity itself." JOHN DURANT AND MARTIN BAUER declined between 1979 and 1990. • It may be surprising to science- Those who think "astrology is at least minded people, but belief in astrology sort of scientific," for example, does not appear to be correlated with declined 10 percentage points, from 50 an inadequate understanding of percent to 40 percent; most of that science or to a negative attitude drop, reports Miller, took place toward science. In Britain, believers between 1983 and 1985. tend to be those with intermediate • Astrological belief is strongly levels of understanding of science; related to gender. In all three those with higher or lower levels of countries, belief in astrology is understanding believe in astrology to significantly higher among women a slightly lower degree. "Belief in the than among men—two to three times pseudoscience does not seem higher by some measures in some automatically linked to mistrust of demographic subcategories. The science," says Daniel Boy. British survey found gender the single • Astrological belief also tends to most important variable, among the be correlated with age (highest among 12 assessed, predicting higher young people) and with middle-class astrological belief. occupations (clerks, merchants, office • People who believe in astrology workers). tend to have high religious interest but These findings seem to support low levels of integration into some commonsense hypotheses established religious structures—they offered by the scholars to explain tend to be disconnected from belief in astrology and other pseudo- organized . sciences. "In view of these results," • Believers in astrology likewise says Daniel Boy, "we can erect the tend to come from more marginal hypothesis that belief in paranormal family and employment situations phenomena is linked to the degree of than nonbelievers—especially in uncertainty about a person's social France: People living together, those future. Thus, it is in youth, when the who are divorced, and those who rate spread of possibilities for the future their risk of future unemployment is at its widest, that uncertainty is felt highest express greater interest and most intensely. Similarly, in our belief in astrology than those in more societies women probably have fewer settled circumstances. effective possibilities to choose their • Astrological belief is also related social futures than men do. And the to the extent to which people feel they social potential is more open—hence are in control of their social world— more uncertain—among the middle low control is related to higher belief class." in astrology. "Paradoxically, the boom in

Summer 1992 345 "From these results it would appear that interest in science and scientific UFOs as ET Spacecraft? understanding are not significant contributors to variations in belief in Belief Strong, Steady astrology." Durant and Bauer, noting that they on D. Miller's surveys in risk a caricature, summarize what 1985, 1988, and 1990 also their data show about supporters of J asked American adults astrology this way: "Such people tend whether they believed "some of to be: female rather than male; single the unidentified flying objects rather than married; younger rather reported are really space vehicles than older; and religiously motivated from other civilizations." De­ rather than religiously indifferent." spite the views of scientists on Durant and Bauer consider at least these matters, says Miller, a three different ways of thinking about majority of Americans still belief in astrology: answer yes to this question. One, that it is an "anachronism," There is no evidence of a change a throwback to prescientific thinking; in this view: 54 percent in 1985, this is a tempting way for scientists 57 percent in 1988, and 54 to think of it, Durant notes. Second, percent in 1990. it can be viewed anthropologically, as "Interestingly, the acceptance an alternative world-view deserving of the idea of UFOs from other of attention and respect in its own civilizations is unrelated to the right; in this approach no value level of formal education, with judgments are offered. Third, it may a majority of both high school be regarded sociologically, "as one dropouts and college graduates among a number of potential compen­ embracing the idea. There is no satory mechanisms that may be avail­ significant difference between able to individuals who are struggling men and women in their accep­ to come to terms with particular tance of the UFO idea," says aspects of modern culture." This is his Miller. approach. Miller attributes the belief Durant and Bauer's data about high partly to popular movies and religiosity but low religious integra­ television programs and partly tion, for example, support an earlier to a lack of understanding of the hypothesis that astrology feeds upon massive scale of the universe, "metaphysical unrest." This is des­ which makes visits to earth from cribed as a desire for the recovery of any alien civilizations exceed­ a sense of the sacred and a sense of ingly unlikely. unity on the part of people whose social experience has undermined —K.F. those things. "We are able to confirm that astrology has particular attrac­ tions for those who may be experienc­ may be less a result of ing metaphysical unrest," Durant and a weakened confidence in science than Bauer say. "In Britain it seems, as in of the collapse of orthodox religious France, astrology is a phenomenon of faith," says Boy. particular social groups; groups which, Durant, who surveyed British as we have indicated, may be experi­ attitudes, echoes Boy's conclusion: encing some difficulty in accommo-

346 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 dating their religious values to modern astrology." life in an industrial culture. Paradox­ Miller points out that the results ical as it may seem, therefore, we suggest an important agenda for sci­ conclude that popular support for ence educational institutions: "Science astrology may be part and parcel of museums, science TV shows, and modernity itself." other kinds of informal science edu­ Miller's series of surveys for the cation should include on their agenda National Science Foundation disclose programs to debunk old misunder­ the U.S. decline in belief that astrology standings as well as to provide expo­ is scientific, and also similar declines sure to new ideas. We have tended not in those who read horoscopes often to pay much attention to misunder­ and who change behavior in response standings of science." to them. In his final oral remarks at the Women in the United States are AAAS Miller added a criticism of more likely than men to think that newspapers that publish horoscope astrology has some scientific basis (45 columns without including a disclaim­ percent to 33 percent), and they are er, as has been recommended by the significantly more likely to be regular Committee for the Scientific Investi­ readers of horoscopes (23 percent for gation of Claims of the Paranormal. women, 9 percent for men). Women Such publications "contribute some are twice as likely to report that they kind of implicit endorsement" and change their behavior due to an "credibility" to astrology by their astrology report (6 percent for association with horoscopes, he said. women, 3 percent for men). Among those with less than a high school —Kendrick Frazier education this disparity rises to a factor of 3 (9 percent for women, 3 percent for men). Miller's trend lines point to a strong ORC Knocks Gallup surge of astrology-related changing of behavior in the early 1980s but a N Trends Claim relative decline since then. He finds that only 1 or 2 percent of college graduates reported making any he 1990 Gallup survey of para­ changes in their behavior due to normal belief in America was astrology reports. Tsummarized in newspapers "In summary," says Miller, "a nationwide and published in full as a substantial portion of American adults cover Special Report in the SKEPTICAL are still confused about the scientific INQUIRER (Gallup and Newport, standing of astrology/with approxi­ Winter 1991). Now Tom W. Smith of mately 2 of 5 American adults still the National Opinion Research Cen­ thinking that astrology is at least sort ter at the University of Chicago says of scientific. Only about 1 in 5 the apparent substantial growth of at Americans read a horoscope regularly, least certain paranormal phenomena but only 1 in 20 Americans actually shown by the poll was "a methodo­ change their behaviors due to what logical artifact." they read in astrology reports. The One table in the Gallup poll article data from the last decade point to a compared results of Gallup polls in continuing growth of public recogni­ 1978 and 1990. The table showed large tion of the nonscientific character of increases in the percent believing in

Summer 1992 347 deja vu (which, incidentally, isn't even are correct, all the major gainers from a paranormal phenomenon), devils, 1978 to 1990 (Deja vu, , and and ghosts and small, statistically Devils) may be the result of wording marginal increases in belief in witches changes." and , plus small declines He also says that the 1978 survey in belief in ESP and astrology. was done in person and the 1990 Smith, in a paper titled "Phantom survey over the phone. This could Changes on Paranormal Beliefs," have affected results in several ways. made available to the SKEPTICAL "In sum," says Smith, "the 1978 and INQUIRER, says Gallup compared sur­ 1990 Gallup surveys differ in a mul­ veys that differed in several important titude of ways. Any rigorous compar­ regards. "The two surveys (1) used ison between these surveys is different question wordings, (2) asked impossible and they should not be about different phenomena in differ­ used to study changes in beliefs about ent orders, and (3) employed different paranormal phenomena. As a result, data collection methods." despite Gallup's claims, there is no The 1978 survey did not offer any evidence that belief in the paranormal equivocal or uncertain response has increased over the last decade." options, while the 1990 one did. This SI gave survey authors George would tend to systematically reduce Gallup, Jr., and Frank Newport several belief in 1990 compared with 1978 opportunities to reply to Smith's when reported as Gallup did in its criticisms, but they have not done so. "trends table," Smith says. The question wordings themselves —K.F. were also frequently notably different across the two surveys, Smith points out. The 1990 survey gave more elaborate definitions of the pheno­ A Chemist on mena • in question. Smith says this "should have increased reporting." For D Cold Fusion example, what in the earlier survey had been labeled merely "ghosts" was expanded to include "spirits of dead o the two books on cold fusion, people" in the 1990 survey. "It prob­ one by Frank Close and the other ably moved images from those of Tby Eugene F. Mallove, reviewed in Halloween and Hollywood to more recent issues of SI, we can now add general thoughts of spiritual entities," a third. It is the first by a chemist. Smith says. John R. Huizenga, of the Department "In trying to assess the changes in of Chemistry at the University of wording, we believe that there was Rochester, has written Cold Fusion: probably no alteration for witches, The Scientific Fiasco of the Century, trivial changes for ESP and astrology, published in March by the University and substantial shifts for deja vu, of Rochester Press. ghosts, clairvoyance, and devils. We Huizenga was co-chairman of the believe that the changes for deja vu, Department of (DOE) panel ghosts, and devils expanded or on cold fusion, assembled to advise the changed the term so that it was Secretary of Energy on the extraor­ notably easier to believe in the dinary claims of an energy Utopia amended items than the original based on experiments using essen­ formulations.... If these assessments tially test-tube chemistry. The DOE

348 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 for their results, when scientists distort the normal scientific proce­ dures to protect their patent rights, and when scientists use the press as a conduit to disseminate information about a claimed discovery in an unrealistic and overly optimistic tone." But the incident did reveal the scientific process in action. Huizenga's paper concludes on this positive note: "Scientists are real people and errors and mistakes do occur in science. ... In the end the can be relied upon to sort out the valid experimental results from back­ ground noise and error. . . . The cold fusion fiasco illustrates once again, as Schematic drawing of the experiment conducted N rays and polywater have done by Pons and Fleischmann, showing the power- earlier, that the scientific process gain claimed at their press conference. From the works by exposing and correcting its cover of Huizenga's Cold Fusion: The Scientific Fiasco of the Century. own errors." also instructed its ten large national —K.F. laboratories to divert some of their resources to conducting their own cold-fusion experiments in attempts to replicate the claimed phenomena. Subliminal Tapes: It asked them to report the results, positive or negative, to DOE head­ Controlled Tests quarters weekly. Based on all this J (With Bogus Tapes) evidence, the advisory panel eventu­ ally gave cold fusion a markedly cool appraisal. ecent months have been diffi­ Huizenga gave an invited topical cult times for manufacturers of lecture "Cold Fusion Unmasking" at R subliminal self-help tapes and the AAAS meeting in Chicago in the nearly $50-million sales market February (in a session on ethics and they control each year. As SKEPTICAL research policies), and it amounted to INQUIRER readers were informed in a preview of his book. the Spring 1992 issue, a number of Here is Huizenga's concise sum­ controlled experiments have been mary of the cold-fusion episode, as he performed to test the effectiveness of sees it: these products. The results do not "The chimera of cold fusion with substantiate the often outrageous excess heat is a striking illustration of claims being made by the manufactur­ what happens when research is done ers, but instead demonstrate a lack of in isolation by scientists who are empirical support for the efficacy of outside their field of expertise, when their products. scientists circumvent the normal peer In response to some of this "neg­ review process, when scientists ative" research, which has received require too many surprises to account national public exposure. Effective

Summer 1992 349 Learning Systems, Inc., has published are criticizing, it is difficult to evaluate a notice to their customers in their the truthfulness of this statement. "Success Catalog," which is an adver­ This ad, so typical of the self-help tisement for their self-help "Love industry, ends with shallow advice: Tapes." The notice begins: "Should I "But don't take our word for it, or Buy Subliminal or Regular Love anyone else's. See for yourself." In Tapes?" Notice that the option of not other words, forget about all that talk buying anything, for lack of empirical of evidence, and buy our product. support of their usefulness, is not Now the subliminal market has suggested as an alternative. It con­ been dealt another blow. Research tinues, "Let us help you decide." Then presented at the most recent Western to build the case that subliminal Psychological Association meeting in products work: "There have been San Francisco and conducted by Bryan dozens of subliminal communication Auday, Jennifer Mellett, and Philip studies by . . ." and they name Williams, all from Gordon College Silverman, Becker, Taylor, and (Wenham, ) found no Parker, without any mention of the evidence that subjects benefitted from failure over the years to replicate this the subliminal contents of the tapes research; nor do they mention the lack they listened to. The paper "Self- of adequate controls in these studies. improvement Using Subliminal Self- The ad emphatically points out that help Audiotapes: Consumer Benefit or "not all subliminal tapes are equal!" Consumer Fraud?" describes a series and says the studies that fail to of three experiments in which subjects substantiate the effectiveness of these were randomly assigned to a group products "totally failed to consider the that listened to a genuine subliminal effectiveness of tapes that combine tape or a control group that listened audible plus subliminal programs," to a bogus tape with no subliminal which, of course, is present in their content. tapes. Since the ad doesn't tell us Auday and his colleagues had three which of the publicized reports they goals in : (1) empirically test the most frequently ordered subliminal tapes from one of the largest distrib­ utors; (2) employ adequate control measures to rule out placebo effects; (3) use tapes that allowed for an accurate and valid assessment of the dependent variables so that improve­ ment could be fairly evaluated. Three tapes, "Memory Improvement," "Relieve Stress and Anxiety," and "Self-Confidence (Self-image)," all from the same manufacturer, were tested. A total of 103 subjects were pretested using widely accepted tests for each of the dependent variables (e.g., stress and anxiety were assessed using the Anx- si^u^i- - iety Scale Questionnaire

350 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 Isaac Asimov Isaac Asimov, perhaps the great­ est explainer and popularizer of science of all time, died April 6 at the age of 72. He was also a towering figure of twentieth- century science fiction, author of works that had been voted the best science-fiction series (Foundation Trilogy) and best science-fiction short story (Nightfall) of all time. He combined extraordinary gifts of intellect, curiosity, imagination, breadth, and diversity. and clarity of thought and expres­ He was a relentless defender of sion with an astonishing passion reason, rationality, and the values for writing that produced nearly of science. He was a founding 500 published books (335 of them Fellow of CSICOP and had been a still in print). They range over SKEPTICAL INQUIRER consulting every field of science, as well as editor since 1978. most other areas of human knowl­ The SKEPTICAL INQUIRER plans edge, including history, Shake­ to publish a series of tributes by speare, and the Bible. Few writers friends and colleagues in a future have ever produced a body of work issue. of such substance, magnitude, —Kendrick Frazier and the Jackson Personality Inven­ tory). Subjects did not know whether James Michener's Tales they had received a genuine tape or a bogus tape. The manufacturer's • of a Fortune-Teller recommendation of 3 to 4 weeks of listening to the products was followed. At the end of this period subjects were he author James A. Michener's post-tested with the same instru­ memoirs, The World Is My Home, ments used during the pretesting. Tpublished early this year by Ran­ Results using analysis of variance dom House, are filled with unforget­ revealed no significant improvements, table stories of his travels and his for any of the dependent variables, experiences as an involved citizen and that could be attributed to the sub­ a writer of epic novels that have liminal contents of the tape. In terms entertained and informed millions of empirical support for the effective­ worldwide (Tales of the South Pacific, ness of subliminal self-help tapes—the Hawaii, Caravans, The Source, Centen­ evidence just does not appear to be nial, The Covenant, Space, Poland, Texas, there. Caribbean, to name just a few). —Bryan C. Auday Every chapter yields pleasures and surprises. But to the skeptic nothing Bryan Auday is an associate professor of could be more unexpected than this: psychology at Gordon College, Wenham, Late in the book Michener, who Massachusetts. turned 85 on February 3, devotes the

Summer 1992 351 first third of a chapter (pp. 403-411) even one right on the nose, that is to his experiences learning, and what is remembered. . . ." practicing, the art of fortune-telling. A string of just such lucky hits— Yes, fortune-telling. and Michener gives several exam­ Once when "knocking about ples—established his reputation and Egypt" Michener came upon a gifted began attracting clients from outside fortune-teller named the Princess. His the area. interest and curiosity led her to let him He then came to another realiza­ in on her system. She used a deck of tion. "I discovered that one of the cards to provide the fortune, arranged profound secrets of fortune-telling is in six columns of eight with four cards that subjects want to believe what left over, "the heart of the fortune." they are being told and will sometimes She would put on remarkable go to extreme lengths to make the exhibitions based on what Michener prophecies come true." He told a busi­ realized was "insight, shrewd guess­ nessman he would go to Omaha the ing, and plain common sense," and her next Tuesday and things would work readings were often right on the mark. out well. He later found the man as She told him not to try to be clever; a result had added Omaha to a trip use any secret information your originally intended to include only subject reveals but stick with what the Kansas City, and in Omaha had indeed cards reveal. And she pointed out that engineered a successful deal. "That all people are vitally concerned with fellow Michener is unbelievable," the the six headings, which dealt with job, man told everyone. "My reputation love, safety, death, money, and travel. grew," Michener says. And she told him always to be specific; Michener stopped the readings when you're correct it has a big impact only when he realized how seriously on the subject. people were beginning to take them. Some years later his home district He told a woman and her husband not in Pennsylvania decided to launch an to go on a planned trip. She later told arts festival, and a friend urged him they went, and their car was hit Michener to tell fortunes as his by a truck and her husband was killed. contribution. He set up a tent, put on "This, and other extraordinary "an outrageous hat and scarf" and coincidences that resulted from sheer "began to tell some of the wildest guessing, began to make me think that fortunes ever heard in rural Pennsyl­ what I was doing was irresponsible; vania." His fortune-telling became a it had become far more serious than sensation, "and by sheer accident I hit just a silly game, and I realized that just enough truths or near-truths to I had better quit the nonsense, because cause neighbors to tell others of the even if I refused to take it seriously, remarkable record I was compiling as others did." a man who could really foresee past He says the fortune-telling and future." methods he was taught bear a "strik­ It was then he uncovered the real ing resemblance" to the story-telling secret that the Princess had kept from skills he uses in novels. "In both him, Michener recalls. "In the course activities one used observation, of telling a fortune the seer makes shrewd guesswork, and the proper about forty-five separate statements, selection of -laden words to and at least thirty-five will be totally create empathy." wide of the mark, but if he or she Michener concludes this tale in a succeeds in the remaining ten to hit way that will endear him to skeptics.

352 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 other parts of Michener's memoirs of special interest. One is his brief description (pp. 270-271) of the sad events at Macmillan, where he worked as an editor, when a fellow editor, Jim Putnam, a hero of Michener's, got into serious trouble for persuading Mac­ millan to publish Immanuel Velikov- sky's Worlds in Collision. The book was on its way to becoming a bestseller, but the community of scientific scho­ lars "descended on Macmillan in outrage," Putnam was fired, and the book was given to another publisher. Michener never saw Putnam again. He treats this as a case of censor­ ship. The other (pp. 492-494) concerns the Russian scientist Trofim Lysenko. Lysenko's theories briefly held deep appeal to Michener, an orphan of uncertain parentage, because they James Michener learned, practiced, and then gave him hope that "acquired charac­ revealed the secrets of fortune-telling. (Photo 61991 Steven Pumphrey.) teristics" resulting from his upbring­ ing and strength of character "Never once, not even when I was overwhelmingly outstripped the reaping great acclaim as a seer, did I importance of Mendelian genetic believe a word of what I told my inheritance. Nevertheless when evi­ subjects, nor did the Princess. . . . dence discrediting Lysenko began to Each of us acknowledged that what mount, Michener accepted that and we did was nothing but delightful revised his thinking accordingly. trickery." He resisted entreaties to enlist in —Kendrick Frazier the cause of believers. "I was fre­ quently invited or badgered to confess that I had powers, or was in touch with spirits, or had at some Study of Pathological point been inducted into the world of black magic, but I was never remotely • Science in China inclined to accept such nonsense and quickly dropped my involvement when others began to take fortune- nthusiasm for studying the phe­ telling more seriously than I did. I had nomenon of "pathological no powers of whatsoever. Escience" has recently been Tarot, I Ching, and astrology disgust aroused among Chinese scientists and me, and I think that newspapers that philosophers. They feel it could be publish daily horoscopes are enemies used to counter "paranormal science" of sanity. When people ask 'What sign in China, since it has been regarded are you?' I cringe." as an important concept in the 51 readers should also find two West.

Summer 1992 353 The first person to introduce this concept into China was physicist Qin China Acts to Suppress Cheng-Rui, wife of the distinguished physicist He Zuo-Xiu. Her article J Fortune-Tellers "Pathological Science, Cold Fusion, etc." was published in Research into n a move sure to strike many with Nature Dialectics (no. 1, 1991). In this mixed , the Communist article, Qin described pathological I government of the People's Repub­ science as a social activity in which lic of China recently banned 25 scientists are influenced by strong publications dealing with fortune- wishful thinking resulting from pop­ telling and related subjects. ular social ideas. The Press and Publications Admin­ In another periodical, World Science, istration of the PRC announced that the article "Pathological Science," by the move was made "to increase their Irving Langmuir, was translated and vigilance and absolutely to not allow published in June 1991. (It had been this kind of publication to harm society published earlier in the United States and poison people's thoughts" {sic), in in the October 1989 Physics Today.) a statement made in the official People's Then the article "Cold Fusion, ­ Daily. gong Craze and Pathological Science," Many of the publications are quite written by Wu Xiang-Hong, was used ancient and are considered to play a in Knowledge Is Power in January significant role in the history of 1992. Chinese culture, among them being In fact, paranormal beliefs are so the 1 Ching, or Book of Changes, a popular in contemporary China that fortune-telling system that is consid­ they have been called "crazes." The ered to be the oldest book in the world most essential cause is that many and is still very popular today among Chinese have hardly developed their the Chinese. skill of thinking scientifically. Chinese Other works banned deal with such are highly proud of their long history subjects as choosing names that will and traditional culture, and such an ensure good fortune, judging charac­ attitude is encouraged by the govern­ ter by a person's outward appearance ment. This pride itself is harmless, but and facial features, and other fortune- it could be dangerous when the telling methods. Publishers will scientific is discarded or disre­ receive fines and unspecified adminis­ garded. Some scientists and VIPs trative punishments. believe that they can revolutionize the It is doubtful if this action will have field by studying such "treasures of much long-term effect on the beliefs traditional culture" as Qi-Gong, and of the average Chinese citizen or the in some cases are cheated by their own attitudes toward these beliefs in wish. Therefore, it would appear to Chinese society in general. Many of be a good idea for these people to be these beliefs have survived for thou­ introduced to the study of pathological sands of years. They have flourished science. under conquests by Mongols and Manchus and persevered through the Wu Xiang-Hong trials and tribulations of both capitalist and communist reforms and dramatic Wu Xiang-Hong is a graduate student cultural and changes, includ­ at the People's University of China, ing the horrors of the Cultural Revo­ Beijing. lution, during which traditional

354 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 Chinese culture was widely sup­ stuff," says the journalism review in pressed. Furthermore, there is a great its March-April issue, "JAMA took deal of evidence that at this time the heroic measures to resuscitate its typical Chinese citizen has more faith reputation." Following Skolnick's in traditional Chinese fortune-telling three-month probe, "JAMA exposed systems than in the pronouncements far more than the numerous consul­ of the government. tancies, research grants, directorships, stock ownerships, and other ties to the —Peter Huston entrepreneurial 's multimillion- dollar business that the authors had Peter Huston writes from Taipei, Taiwan. somehow forgotten to mention: Skol­ nick found what appeared to be a widespread pattern of misinforma­ tion, deception, and manipulation of A Laurel to JAMA . . . news media. ... As a result of Skolnick's investigation, TM's health­ For it's Maharishi care business is now being examined by the National Institutes of Health, Ayur-Veda Expose a congressional subcommittee, and the FDA." he Columbia Journalism Review has Several pages of letters to the given a coveted "Laurel" in its editor about the affair, followed by a T"Darts and Laurels" column to the two-column reply by Skolnick, appear Journal of the American Medical Asso­ in the March 11,1992, JAMA. ciation and its associate editor Andrew Skolnick for the investigation of -K.F. deceptions involving Transcendental Meditation's Maharishi Ayur-Veda health-care products and services. The complex of events during which A Skeptics Society JAMA first published a favorable 0 in Los Angeles article about Ayur-Veda and then found it had been deceived about the authors' connections to the movement here is a new skeptics group in the were the subject of a lengthy inves­ sprawling and populous Los tigation by Skolnick. This was pub­ TAngeles metropolitan area. Called lished by JAMA and later described , it has been in Skolnick's special report in the Spring 1992 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. CJR credited JAMA for "a fine piece of corrective surgery after a botched operation." Finding that Maharishi Ayur-Veda actually referred not to an ancient healing system of India but to a trademarked line of products and services intro­ duced in 1985, and further that the SKEPTICS "three impressively credentialed authors had a strong interest in the SOCIETY marketing and promotion of the TM New group's logo.

Summer 1992 355 organized to promote was James Randi. Shermer said more and encourage scientific investigation than 400 people attended. of paranormal and pseudoscientific For further information contact claims. the Skeptics Society at 2761 N. The Skeptics Society is directed by Marengo Ave., Altadena, CA 91001, , who has a doctorate phone/fax 818-794-3119. in the history and and teaches and does research —K.F. at the Institute for Human Progress. Like other local groups, it is independ­ ent and autonomous, but shares some intellectual goals with CSICOP. Funny Stuff Shermer is author of Teach Your Child Science and Teach Your Child Math (co-authored by Arthur Ben­ ow many times have fellow jamin), both recently published by skeptics shaken their heads Lowell House, (Los Angeles). "I am H sadly when finding astrology, interested in exploring the role of , and paranormal books classi­ science and skepticism in all areas of fied with "Science," "Philosophy," or the human condition," says Shermer some other respectable field of in announcing the new group. inquiry? Philosophy professor William The Skeptics Society will host a Grey says Grahames' Bookshop in monthly lecture series on the campus Wollongong, Australia, deserves com­ of the California Institute of Technol­ mendation. It includes the classifica­ ogy. It's first speaker, on March 22, tion: "Humour/Astrology." o

ARE BEJN3 PLANNER

356 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 Notes of a Fringe-Watcher

MARTIN GARDNER

D The Big Bang Theory SHU Lives

few years ago astronomers can occur all by itself in nothing, the discovered that the universe is BB offers a convenient moment for A much lumpier than they had a Creator to start the process of supposed. Galaxies are not spread cosmic evolution. (Of course empty uniformly throughout space. They space is not pure nothing; it has to tend to cluster along the imaginary contain quantum fields capable of surfaces of enormous bubbles that fluctuating.) Indeed, many liberal surround monstrous voids, or along Christians and philosophical theists huge ribbons that twist through have viewed the BB in this light. But space. This lumpiness seems to con­ among fundamentalists still clinging tradict the uniform distribution of the to the notion that God created the microwave radiation believed to be the universe some ten thousand years residual glow from . a primordial ago, the BB is anathema. To accept fireball. If the universe is so clumpy, it would require accepting an evolving why is this background radiation so cosmos billions of years old. Creation­ incredibly smooth? ists are now all in a dither over Spurred on by a small group of prospects that the BB may be over­ scientists, the media have seized on turned. It only shows, they say, how these newly found large-scale struc­ shaky modern science is—maybe, just tures as evidence that the big bang maybe, evidence for a young earth will (BB) theory is mortally wounded. Time soon be forthcoming. (September 2, 1991) headed a page It will not be forthcoming. "Big Bang Under Fire." Dozens of Although BB theory may have to be reports on the BB's demise have modified, or even replaced by a new appeared in newspapers and such model, evidence that the universe is periodicals as The Sciences (January/ billions of years old is overwhelming. February, 1990) and England's Nature Not only that, but rumors of the BB's (August 10, 1989). Plasma physicist death are enormously exaggerated. Eric J. Lerner has even written a book The term big bang was coined by titled The Big Bang Never Happened British astronomer Fred Hoyle to poke (Times Books, 1991), which has been fun at the BB conjecture of physicist widely and favorably reviewed. George Gamow. At that time Hoyle One might think that all conser­ favored an expanding steady-state vative Christians would welcome BB model with no beginning and no end. theory. Because no one has any clear To keep the infinite universe always idea of how a "quantum fluctuation" in the same overall state while it

Summer 1992 357 balloons, new matter is constantly an ionized (electrically charged) gas, being created in the form of hydrogen often called a "fourth state of matter," atoms—though where those atoms that permeates the universe. Indeed, come from was never explained. 99 percent of the universe is plasma. Hoyle's theory met its death when the Suns are made of plasma. Their winds cosmic background radiation was are plasma. Plasma surrounds the detected. larger planets, including Earth. It is At the moment, the BB's chief rival plasma that produces the polar auroral is a theory proposed 20 years ago by lights. Fluorescent lights contain a Hannes Alfven, a Swedish physicist form of plasma. and holder of a 1970 Nobel Prize, now Only a few plasma physicists favor 84 years old. Alfven has a reputation Alfven's view that plasma shapes the galaxies. If gravity was acting alone, they maintain, the large-scale galactic clumping would have required at least a hundred billion years, far exceeding the amount of time permitted by BB theory. The plasma theory, they say, not only allows sufficient time for clumping, it also predicted just such clumping. Although Alfven's universe is infinite in time and space, it is not a steady-state model like some of its rivals. Drawing on the views of Belgian chemist Ilya Prigogine, it is a universe that began in chaos and is steadily evolving more and more complex forms of order. At the beginning was a uniform hydrogen plasma that had always existed. Over trillions of years it began to develop vortices and gravitational instabilities that finally, after hundreds more as a maverick whose proposals have billions of years, formed galaxies, been a mix of successful hits and stars, and planets. Unlike the BB unfortunate misses. One of his con­ model, Alfven's universe is not run­ troversial conjectures was the basis ning down as its entropy increases, for his Worlds-Antiworlds (Freeman, but is being continually wound up in 1966). The book defended the view ways that Prigogine seeks to explain. that half the galaxies in the universe Its future is unlimited and unpre­ contain stars made of matter and that dictable. the other half contain stars made of Now, the greatest obstacles to this antimatter. Almost all astrophysicists infinitely evolving cosmos are the red now agree that the universe is entirely shifts of distant galaxies, which are matter. best explained by a uniformly expand­ In Alfven's model, gravity is not ing, finite model. If you run the alone in shaping galaxies. They are expansion backward, you reach a time, formed mainly by the electromagnet- 10 to 20 billion years ago, when the ism of titanic helical vortices in plasma, universe had to be an infinitely dense

358 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 Big Bang Gets Big Boost

s this issue was on it's way to cist at the University of California, Apress, the startling news broke Berkeley, who led the research that NASA's Cosmic Background team. "The big bang," exclaimed Explorer (COBE), peering back astrophysicist Edward Wright, a some 15 billion years into the past, member of Smoot's team, "is alive found that the microwave radiation and well, very well!" was far from uniform. Fluctuations Still a mystery is the nature of in the radiation showed that soon the "dark matter" required by big- after the big bang there were bang theory to account for the nonuniform patterns in the radio galactic structure. As I write, there waves sufficient to account for a is yet no word from Alfven or rapid congealing of primeval gas Lerner about their reaction to the into large-scale structures. news. My guess is they are not The discovery was hailed as the likely to toss in their towels, but most important in cosmology for will be proposing an explanation for the past two decades. "If you're the COBE results that is consistent religious, it's like looking at God," with their plasma model. said George Smoot, an astrophysi- —M.G. singularity that exploded. site matter collide, they pass through How does Alfven evade this evi­ one another without mutual annihi­ dence? His conjecture is that the lation. The microwave background primeval plasma first produced a thin comes not from the BB of a singu­ mixture of matter and antimatter that larity. It is radiation from nearby stars, gathered into huge clouds. Gravity smoothed by intergalactic plasma. caused each cloud to start to collapse Eric Lerner acknowledges that until the collisions of matter and there are grave difficulties with this antimatter produced an explosion that scenario, even though he is certain covered a space hundreds of millions that BB theory has been refuted by of light-years across and lasted mil­ the universe's large-scale structures lions of years. Portions of each original and that something like Alfven's cloud blew apart to form smaller model will have to be substituted. clouds of matter and antimatter that Another alternative to BB cosmology in turn exploded in myriads of smaller is the possibility that red shifts are not bangs. Alfven calls this his "fireworks measures of receding velocities, but model." the result of other, as-yet-unknown We live in what Alfven calls a causes. If this is true, then of course "metagalaxy." It arose from a little our metagalaxy is not expanding at all. bang that occurred 10 to 20 billion Few cosmologists believe that any years ago, as indicated by the red other explanation of red shifting will shifts. In infinite space an infinity of be found, or that there is any evidence other metagalaxies are forming. Half to support Alfven's fireworks. our galaxies are made of matter; the Lerner's battering of the BB theory other half, of antimatter. Stars are so would be more effective if he would far apart that when galaxies of oppo- soften his rhetoric, which is like that

Summer 1992 359 so often used to support fringe that if our universe is destined to die science. Not content with giving data from an overdose of entropy, or from and arguments against the BB, and a big crunch at the end of a contracting sketching alternative models, Lerner phase, then the universe does seem, bashes the scientific establishment for as in a much-quoted passage from a its stubborn inability to accept new book by Steven Weinberg, to be ideas. If BB theory is discredited, he "pointless." warns, would not the careers of hun­ Presumably, if we could only get dreds of researchers be threatened? rid of unfettered capitalism and Although evidence against the BB substitute a more humane democracy, remains far from persuasive, Lerner's economic woes would be diminished, enthusiasm is boundless. He likens the hope for humanity's future would coming rejection of BB theory to the revive, and scientists would replace Copernican revolution. Just as astron­ the pessimistic BB theory with an omers tried vainly to patch up the optimistic plasma model. The dying Ptolemaic model with mystical epi­ universe of BB theory would give way cycles, so (Lerner claims) BB buffs to a universe in which humanity keep patching their dying model with would flourish forever, evolving into such "epicycles" as a sudden inflation higher and higher forms of intelli­ of the universe immediately after the gence as it colonizes the stars. It is BB, mammoth cosmic strings to sculpt hard to believe, but Lerner goes out the galaxies, yet undiscovered "dark of his way to point out that Alan Guth matter" to keep whirling galaxies developed his inflationary model of intact, black holes, gut theories, the BB at the very time that our nation superstrings, and other improbable was experiencing its worst monetary ad-hoc devices. inflation of the century! Lerner correctly perceives that if Here is a sample of Lerner's soci­ certain popular versions of the BB go, ological speculations: a drastic revision of modern particle physics will be needed, perhaps even Obviously, the small-scale specula­ a refinement of quantum mechanics. tors of cosmology did not, in any This is a tall order, especially since conscious way, imitate the large- Lerner has nothing to offer in the way scale speculators of Wall Street. Yet, of a better theory of particles. as in every other epoch, society's dominant ideas permeated cosmol­ The most surprising aspect of ogy. If the wealthiest members of Lerner's book is his plunge into a society earned billions by mere dubious sociology of science. He manipulation of numbers, without actually believes that the BB's popu­ building a single factory or mill, it larity rests not on sound evidence but didn't seem too strange that scien­ on an obsession with a free-market tific reputations could be made with economy that allows the rich to get theories that have no more relation richer and the poor to get poorer. He to reality. If a tower of financial thinks the dream of working for a speculation could be built on debt— the promise of future payment— brighter future has been forgotten as then, similarly, a tower of cosmo- greed takes over. Along with the greed logical speculation could be built on comes a pessimism about the future promises of future experimental of humanity, which in turn generates confirmation. a pessimism about the future of the universe. He subscribes to the view Because science is always cor­ rigible, there is indeed a possibility

360 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 that as more evidence accumulates the our actions today have no meaning BB model will blow up with a bang, in the end of all things, and are we or fade slowly with whimpers, or what now being swept into that inevitable seems most likely at the moment, be decay? Or does what we do here steadily refined. It is true that astron­ and now permanently change the cosmos, a change that will echo omers change their models of the through a limitless future? universe about every 50 years. As someone has said, cosmologists are If Lerner's sociology is right, we always wrong but seldom uncertain. may have to get rid of capitalist greed Unfortunately, the dogmatism of before our scientists will open their big-bangers is exceeded by the dog­ minds to Alfven's optimistic cosmol­ matism of their detractors. "The Big ogy. Lerner is confident that as new Bang is a myth," Alfven has declared, evidence against the BB is forthcom­ "a wonderful myth maybe, which ing, the pendulum will start swinging deserves a place of honor in the the other way and cosmologists will columbarium which already contains abandon armchair theorizing for a the Indian myth of a cyclic universe, model based more firmly on hard the Chinese cosmic egg, the Biblical empirical data. It is not clear whether myth of creation in six days, the he thinks such a change in cosmology Ptolemaic cosmological myth, and will help eliminate economic greed, or many others." Writing in Sky and whether the greed will have to go Telescope (February 1992), Lerner before the cosmology changes. likens BB theory to the emperor's nonexistent clothes. Although the BB is still favored by the vast majority of cosmologists, who Lerner seems to think that we knows what big surprises our new mortals, knowing we will soon die, are telescopes and particle accelerators less concerned about our own fate have in store? We must wait and see. than about the fate of our universe hundreds of billions of years from (See also Victor Stenger's review of Eric now! Here is his book's stirring next- Lerner's book, this issue.—ED.) to-las't paragraph: Martin Gardner's latest book, On the Do we live in a finite universe Wild Side (Prometheus, 1992), includes doomed to decay, where humans are insignificant transitory specks on a his 16 most recent columns from the tiny planet? Or are we instead the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, with addenda, furthest advance of an infinite and 16 essays and reviews published in progress in a universe that has the New York Review of Books, Free neither beginning nor end? Will Inquiry, and other periodicals.

Summer 1992 361 You Can Help Build the

Martin Gardner and co-chair the Center for Inquiry fund-raising campaign.

Science commentator Martin Gardner and author-humorist Steve Allen, co-chairs of the Center for Inquiry Capital Fund Drive, will lead an expanding fund-raising effort, now under way. Its aim is not only to raise the funds required to complete Phase II of CSICOP's headquarters, but also to create an Endowment Fund whose income can be used in part to defray operating and maintenance costs of the new headquarters in perpetuity and to enrich all our programs. Martin Gardner, the author of numerous books, wrote the long- running "Mathematical Games" column in Scientific American for many years and is a longtime contributor to SI. Steve Allen is an author, humorist, musician, and television personality who created public television's Meeting of Minds series. His recent book Dumbth: And 81 Ways to Make Americans Smarter focused on America's crisis in critical thinking. In 1991, CSICOP and the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER moved many of its offices and production facilities to a new 5,700-square-foot building near the State University of New York at Buffalo/Amherst campus. By conducting this Phase I project in cooperation with the Council for Democratic and (CODESH), publisher of magazine, and thanks to the generosity of our readers, CSICOP was able to pay almost all of its share of the costs. Phase I was never designed to house back-issue storage, our mail center, and audio-visual facilities—most of which remains seven miles away in a decaying urban neighborhood. Moreover, our new headquarters has space for only the most recent literature in CSICOP's library collection. Finally, it provides no room for our increasing number of meetings and seminars. Completing the 25,000-square-foot Phase II will consolidate all our Buffalo-area operations at one site—and provide permanent space for CSICOP's much-needed research library, seminar-meeting rooms, and additional office space. In addition, there will be room for expansion as CSICOP continues to grow. It's Up To You Your contribution at this time will help us to maintain our momentum as we accumulate funds for the design and construction of Phase II. Donors of $1,000 or more will be listed in a special commemorative album. Names of donors of $5,000 or more will be inscribed on a bronze plaque. A seminar room in the Phase II building will be named after anyone giving $25,000 or more, and a wing of the building will be named for anyone giving $100,000 or more. Gifts may be paid through three-year pledges payable quarterly, or with stocks or bonds. Please make your contribution today. Make checks payable to CSICOP and mail to the CSICOP/Center for Inquiry Capital Fund Drive, Box 703, Buffalo, New York 14226-0703. Inquiries regarding substantial gifts, phased pledges, or bequests may be made in confidence to Paul Kurtz at the same address.

Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal CSICOP, Box 703, Buffalo, NY 14226-0703

Yes, I support skepticism, science and reason! Here is my tax-deductible commitment to the CSICOP/Center for Inquiry Capital Fund Drive.

Name Address City State Zip • Pledge payable over three years in 12 quarterly payments. Amount: D $100 • $500 D $1,000 more D $5,000 or more O Other $ D Seminar room, $25,000 ($694.44 a month, billed quarterly.) D Wing, $100,000 ($2,777.77 a month, billed quarterly.) D My gift is for D Building Fund • Endowment D Where most needed D Check / Money Order O MasterCard D VISA Or call 800-634-1610. i Credit Card Donors only . Acct. No Exp. Date Signature Daytime Phone

D Please have campaign representative call me. Psychic Vibrations l~T?Xx Smart Drinks, Orvotron Activation, & Vedic Science

ROBERT SHEAFFER

ow that increasing health- its neurotransmitters and thereby consciousness is making alco­ increase mental powers. None of these N hol less glamorous, what are substances are illegal (although many people supposed to drink during a revelers spike their smart drinks with night out on the town? "Smart drugs like LSD), and no laws are drinks," claimed to give your mental broken so long as these supposedly and physical powers a temporary smart ingredients are marketed as boost, are the surprising choice of "nutritional supplements" rather than many active young adults at trendy as "drugs." California night spots. As described in Most of the smart drink formulas the January 31,1992, San Jose Mercury on the market today come from the News, these drinks—sporting names fertile minds of Durk Pearson and like "Blast" and "Wow" and selling for Sandy Shaw, authors of the best- about $4.00—contain megadoses of selling book Life Extension: A Practical vitamins or amino acids. Many of Scientific Approach. Their success in them contain high doses of either amplifying human intelligence prob­ choline or phenylalanine, which are ably matches their ability to extend supposed to help the brain build up human life. Smart drinks have now become big business, and one of the leading amino-acid entrepreneurs is the former 1960s radical Jerry Rubin, now a distributor of something called Omnitrition International. Rubin claims to have 10,000 "individual entrepreneurs" working under him. The absence of scientific proof that these drinks have any real effect on one's mental powers seems to have had no adverse effect on their sales. Users of smart drinks perceive many benefits from their use. People make such claims as "I can stay really focused for longer periods of time" and "The drinks keep you going when you are •yirer

364 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 feeling a little slow." But James trim." Smith confidently predicted McGaugh, a neurobiologist at the that 1991 would be the year of "the University of California at Irvine who complete comeback of Elvis Presley." specializes in the study of brain chemistry, charges that these so-called * * * smart drinks are quite useless and that widely publicized claims about "smart Nonetheless, 1992 may yet usher in drugs" are both irresponsible and the golden New Era. Jose Arguelles, potentially dangerous. On the other who dreamed up the Harmonic Con­ hand, Mark Rennie, attorney and vergence, claims that the ancient evangelist for the smart drink crowd, Mayans were actually space aliens gushes: "This is huge, huge, huge. This from the Galactic Federation, and he is the next evolutionary shift on the has fixed 1992 as the year that they're planet. . . . Once this thing hits a coming back. critical mass, I think the government A New Age sect called Orvotron, will panic." Still, nutritionist Bonnie "The East Coast Power Point," has Liebman of the Center for Science in been proclaiming 1992 as the year of the Public Interest notes: "Pearson and the "opening of the Doorway for Shaw have made outrageous, unsup­ Ascension," which according to Kor- ported claims in the past. ... If tron and Solinus, leaders of the group, anyone's smart, it's the people who is supposed to center around Stone have developed this whole scheme." Mountain, Georgia. This was sup­ posed to have culminated in a full * * * "Throne Energy Activation" by this past January 27, so the activation must In matters eschatological, 1991 was a have taken place silently. Anyone bust. The Gulf War ended without interested in ascending would do well triggering Armageddon, which many to subscribe to Orvotron's newsletter, fundamentalists had confidently which is available for $30 from expected. Disciples of the ultra- Solinus. She requests, however, that orthodox Lubavitcher sect, based in checks be made out in her Earth name, New York City, were no doubt keenly Judith Wells; perhaps she cannot use disappointed when the Jewish New her proper star name yet because Year came and went without the Orvotron's interstellar bank accounts revelation of the Messiah, who many have not been established. expected to turn out to be their 90- year-old leader Menachem Schneer- * * * son (this column, Fall 1991: 32). Worse yet, their obscure sect was indeed As if this were not exciting enough, thrust into national headlines, but by some UFO believers are circulating a tragic traffic accident that kindled claims via various electronic confer­ animosities and divided a community. ences that "the real October surprise" And even a predicted return of Elvis will occur on October 12, 1992, the failed to materialize. Promoter Bill five-hundredth anniversary of Smith, who produced the hit record Columbus's arrival in the New World. "Hey Paula" back in 1963, claims that On that day, NASA plans to inaug­ Elvis phones him up regularly and that urate its SETI program—the Search they meet from time to time. Presley, for Extraterrestrial Intelligence—but he says, has slimmed down to about rumor has it that the ETI may find 190 pounds and now looks "very us first. According to one such docu-

Summer 1992 365 ment, "Project SETI has been chosen to be the point organization that will announce to the world a 'discovery'— it will be that they have established communication with an 'alien race' (the lower Greys). The Greys will 'land' at either White Sands in New Mexico, or at Area 51 in Nevada." The very mention of "the Greys" sends a shudder down one's spine in the more paranoid circles of , as this is said to be the alien race that relishes the taste of human flesh.

* * *

This year is also very important because it is "Maharishi's Year of the Constitution of the Universe." If we can believe what we read in the Maharishi's double-page ads in the Toronto Globe and Mail of January 30, and who knows where else, "the Prakritis—the fundamental quali­ ties of the unified field of conscious­ Source of All Order and Harmony" ness. ... When these 64 string fields has been "discovered through Maha­ are interpreted with respect to rishi's Vedic science, verified by Hilbert space, operators, and states, modern science." This discovery is this gives 3 * 64 = 192 fundamental explained by sets of tables containing expressions of Natural Law at this some very complicated symbols. At level of description of the Consti­ the top is "Maharishi's Vedic Science," tution of the Universe—in precise containing what must be Sanskrit correspondence with the first sukt letters. Below them, in strict corres­ of the Rik Ved. pondence, we find an equally compli­ cated grouping of symbols from Where is all this leading? "We are mathematical physics, which for those establishing a Capitol of Heaven on who have not studied them might as Earth," says Maharishi (although for well also be in Sanskrit. The Mahar- something as major as Heaven I'd be ishite explanation goes something like satisfied with even a mere County this: Seat). Anyone who wants to learn more about the Constitution of the Universe is urged to contact Maha­ As with the structure of Ved, the rishi International University; and if Lagrangian of the superstring can be seen in various degrees of unfold- you can't find the Maharishi there, ment. . . . These eight fundamental you might be able to catch him in modes of the string correspond, in Stockholm when he arrives to pick up Vedic terminology, to the eight his Nobel Prize in Physics. o

366 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 Psychic Experiences: Psychic Illusions SUSAN BLACKMORE

hy do so many people believe in psychic phenomena? Because they have psy­ Wchic experiences. And why do they have psychic experiences? Because such experiences are an inevitable consequence of the way we think. I suggest that, like visual illusions, they are the price we pay for a generally very effective relationship with a massively complex world. The latest Gallup poll (Gallup and Newport 1991) shows that about a third of Americans believe in telepathy and about a quarter claim it Psychic to have experienced it themselves. Rather fewer have experienced clairvoyance or psychokinesis experiences are (PK), but still the numbers are very high and the inevitable have not been decreasing over the years. Previous surveys have found similar results and consequence of also that the most common reason for belief the way we think. in the paranormal is personal experience (Palmer 1979; Blackmore 1984). They are A "psychic experience" is here defined as any comparable to experience interpreted by the experient as visual Illusions. requiring a psychic or paranormal interpreta­ tion. The question of whether such a hypothesis is required is not addressed. Rather we are attempting to understand how such experiences come about even if no genuinely paranormal phenomena occur. It should be noted that many experimental studies of psi (such as guessing long strings of targets) do not produce psychic experiences in this sense, although they may produce evidence of the paranormal. Others (such as ganzfeld studies and , perhaps) do, but the experience is a separate issue from the question of statistical significance or evidence for psi. We are here concerned with experience and belief, not the evidence for psi. My hypothesis is that psychic experiences are comparable to visual illusions. The experience is real enough, but its origin lies in internal

Summer 1992 processes, not peculiarities in the real connections between events and observable world. Like visual illusions failing to look for explanations. they arise from cognitive processes Second, they may treat chance events that are usually appropriate but under as connected and seek for explanations certain circumstances give rise to the where none is required. In the real wrong answer. In other words, they world of inadequate information and are a price we pay for using efficient complex interactions one would heuristics. expect errors of both types to occur. In the case of vision, illusions arise It is the latter type that, I suggest, when, for example, depth is seen in gives rise to experiences of ESP. two-dimensional figures and con­ This is comparable to classical stancy mechanisms give the answer signal-detection theory. Figure 1 that would be correct for real depth. shows two distributions. For any The equivalent in the case of psychic given stimulus strength there could experiences may be the illusion that be just noise or noise plus a signal. a cause is operating and an explanation At low signal-to-noise ratios, it is not is required when in fact none is. In possible to be a perfect detector. other words, psychic experiences are Mistakes are inevitable and may be illusions of causality. I shall discuss either in missing a true signal or in five types of illusion. thinking there is a signal when there is not. I am suggesting that believers 1. Illusions of Connection in the paranormal (called "sheep" in psychological parlance) are more likely Experiences of telepathy, clairvoy­ to make the latter kind of error than ance, and imply a coin­ are disbelievers (called "goats"). In cidence that is "too good to be just signal-detection theory, this is des­ chance." This is so whether the experi­ cribed in terms of a variable criterion. ence involves dreaming about a per­ As the payoffs change, people may use son's death and that person dies a different criterion, making more of within a few hours, feeling the urge one kind of error and fewer of to pick up one's partner from the another. Their sensitivity (d') may not station and in fact he was stranded change when their criterion does (see and needed help, or betting on a horse Figure 2). It is not a question of right that later wins a race. and wrong but of which kind of error Some people's response to such you would rather make, given you events is to say, "That was just a have to make some. chance coincidence"; while others' is One prediction of this approach is to say, "That cannot be chance." In that those people who more fre­ the latter case the person will then quently look for explanations of look for a causal explanation for the chance coincidences are more likely to coincidence. If none can be found, a have psychic experiences. Therefore, "cause," such as ESP, may be invoked. sheep should be those who under­ Alternatively, some kind of noncausal estimate the probability of chance but meaningful connection may be coincidences. sought, such as Jung's "acausal con­ It has long been known that prob­ necting principle" (Jung 1973). ability judgments can be extremely There are two possible types of inaccurate. Kahneman and Tversky error that may be made here. First, (1973) have explored some of the people may treat connected events as heuristics, such as "representative­ chance coincidences, thereby missing ness" and "availability," that people

368 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 FIGURE 1. Sheep (believers in the paranormal) can be seen as more likely than goats (disbelievers) to decide that a connection is meaningful, a series of events nonrandom, or a form present in ambiguous images. use to make judgments and that can find coincidences surprising (Falk give rise to serious errors. In addition, 1982; Falk and McGregor 1983). people have great confidence in Adding specific but superfluous details erroneous judgments, even in the face can make coincidences seem more of contrary evidence (Einhorn and surprising, and things that happen to Hogarth 1978). Falk and collaborators subjects themselves seem more sur- have investigated what makes people prising to them than the same things

FIGURE 2. In an analogy with signal-detection theory, sheep and goats might have the same sensitivity (d') but differ in criterion.

Summer 1992 369 happening to other people. Diaconis Langer (1975). Sheep have been found and Mosteller (1989) have reviewed to show a greater illusion of control some ways of studying the psychology than goats in a psi task (Ayeroff and of coincidences and have provided Abelson 1976, Jones et al. 1977; models for calculating probabilities. Benassi et al. 1979). There is, however, little research One might argue that if PK occurs relating these misjudgments to belief then the perception of personal con­ in the paranormal or to having psychic trol in such tasks is not an illusion. experiences. Blackmore and Trosci- This is less likely, given that no PK anko (1985) found that sheep per­ was found in these experiments. formed worse than goats on a variety However, to rule out this as an of probability tasks. For example, in explanation for the difference, Black- questions testing for responsiveness more and Troscianko (1985) used a to sample size, sheep did significantly covert psi task. There was no evidence worse than goats. The well-known of PK and a greater illusion of control birthday question was asked: How for sheep than for goats. many people would you need to have at a party to have a 50:50 chance that 3. Illusions of Pattern two have the same birthday? (See and Randomness Diaconis and Mosteller 1989 for a general model for this type of ques­ Pattern and randomness cannot be tion.) As predicted, goats got the unambiguously distinguished. In a answer right significantly more often long enough series of events, any than sheep. combination or string of events is Subjects also played a coin-tossing likely to occur by chance. However, computer game and were asked to the process of extracting pattern from guess how many hits they would be noise is central to all sensory pro­ likely to get by chance. The correct cesses. As in the case of coincidences, answer, 10 hits in 20 trials, seems to two kinds of error can occur. One is be rather obvious. However, the sheep the failure to detect patterns that are gave a significantly lower mean esti­ there; the second is the tendency to mate of only 7.9, while goats gave a see patterns that are not there. We more accurate estimate of 9.6. are arguing that the second type of Further research is called for here. error will make people search for a It would be interesting to test whether cause and that, since there is no cause, sheep and goats differ in the proba­ they may turn to paranormal expla­ bility they assign to various kinds of nations. coincidences happening both in labor­ This predicts that people who make atory tests and in assessing probabil­ this type of error are more likely to ities of real-world events. have psychic experiences (or experien­ ces they interpret as psychic) and 2. Illusions of Control hence to believe in the paranormal. It has long been known that people Where the coincidence is between a are bad at judging randomness. In person's own action and an event particular, when asked to generate a external to them, the same effect may string of random numbers (subjective be at work but the assumed cause will random generation, or SRG), people be personal control; or in the context typically give far fewer repetitions of of psi, it will be PK. This has been the same digit than would be expected called the "illusion of control" by by chance (see reviews by Budescu

370 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 1987 and Wagenaar 1972). This is related to the "Gambler's /' whereby some people think that a long "These findings suggest that we string of reds must be followed by should expect to find a high black. ESP experiments are often equivalent to SRG and show the same incidence of psychic experience bias. and widespread belief in the Blackmore and Troscianko (1985) found no differences between sheep paranormal whether or not and goats in SRG for strings of digits psychic phenomena ever occur." 1 to 5 or in the ability of sheep and goats to discriminate random sequen­ ces from biased ones. However, tended to choose the string with fewer Brugger, Landis, and Regard (1990) repetitions. Sheep did so more than did. They argued that the same goats, and the intermediate group was variables affect ESP scoring and SRG in between. These results appear to in the same direction—variables like be highly consistent and to show the task duration, stimulant and depres­ expected greater bias in sheep. sant drugs, and age. They even To test this further, Katherine suggest that many laboratory ESP Galaud, at Bristol University, carried findings may be explained by corres­ out an experiment to compare SRG pondences between target sequences for different numbers of choices. It and human biases. Although there is might be argued that most people can some evidence for this in studies predict or calculate likely sequences giving immediate feedback (Gatlin when only two choices are involved 1979; Tart 1979), this cannot easily but that the real world typically explain results obtained without involves multiple choices and low feedback and with adequate target probabilities. Perhaps SRG would be randomization. even less random when more choices They tested the relationship to are possible. Furthermore, differences belief in the paranormal in three between sheep and goats may be more experiments. SRG was studied in a extreme where more choices are avail­ telepathy experiment with five sym­ able. This experiment studied the bols to choose from. Sheep produced variation in results with different significantly fewer repetitions than numbers of choices available. goats did. Subjects intermediate in One hundred twenty students belief gave intermediate repetitions. were given the Belief in the Paran­ There was no evidence of ESP occur­ ormal Scale (BPS) (Jones, Russell, and ring and no sheep-goat effect (i.e., Nickel 1977), a randomness question­ sheep did not do better at the ESP naire, and a probability questionnaire. test). The probability questionnaire con­ In a second experiment, SRG was sisted of three questions based on the studied in mimicking the roll of dice "taxi problem" (Kahneman and (6 choices). The same effect was Tversky 1972) manipulated to give found. Third, subjects were shown correct answers of 20, 40, and 80 dice sequences with different percent. The randomness question­ numbers of repetitions and asked naire asked subjects to generate which was more likely to appear first strings of random numbers, choosing by chance. Of course all strings were from the digits 1 to 2, 1 to 4, or 1 equally likely to occur, but subjects to 8, with expected numbers of

Summer 1992 371 repetitions being 12, 6, and 3, respec­ criterion for seeing forms than goats, tively. No differences were found with the same accuracy for discrim­ between sheep, goats, and interme­ inating forms, or they may actually diates (Blackmore, Galaud, and make more errors altogether. Walker, in press). Fifty subjects were given the Belief There are two differences between in the Paranormal Scale and tested on this experiment and Brugger's that an object-identification task. The might account for the different stimuli consisted of four sets of seven results. One is that Brugger et al. pictures each; ranging from barely timed the generation of digits with a identifiable blobs to clear outline metronome. It could be that, given shapes (see Figure 3). The final shapes time to think about randomness, were two leaves, a bird, a fish and an people can to some extent compensate axe. They were presented for 10 for their biases and that untimed and milliseconds each, with a mask of black unpressured responses like those in dots on a white background shown the present experiment cannot reveal between presentations. The four least them. However, it could also be identifiable stimuli were shown first, argued that in real-life situations there progressing through the series with is not usually time pressure. Another the four at each level being random­ difference is that they used only one ized for order. The subjects were question on ESP to divide subjects into asked whether they could see any sheep, goats, and intermediates. shape; and, if they could, what shape Further experiments now under way it was. at Bristol are trying to find out if these It was predicted that sheep would factors are responsible. report seeing forms earlier in the series than goats but would not be any 4. Illusions of Form more accurate in identifying the forms. In other words, they would Object recognition can entail the same have a lower criterion for identifica­ two types of error. A conservative tion. This is exactly what was found. approach means missing interesting BPS scores did not correlate with the forms that are there. A less cautious number of pictures correctly identified approach means seeing things that are but did correlate closely with the not. Possibly, those people who are number of incorrect identifications more likely to see forms when none and the tendency to say there was a is present are also more likely to see shape but not identify it. In other apparitions or ghosts or to seek words, the sheep were more likely to paranormal explanations when none make wrong guesses but were no is required. worse at detecting the pictures that In a second experiment at Bristol, were there. Goats, although willing to carried out by Catherine Walker say there was a shape, were less (Blackmore, Galaud, and Walker, in willing than sheep to guess at iden­ press), we tested this and a related tifying it. question. If sheep are more willing to This confirms that sheep are more see forms in noisy displays, is this an likely to claim to see identifiable forms error compared with goats, or are in ambiguous stimuli, but there are goats more likely to miss forms that many possible reasons for this. For are present. This is the familiar example, creativity may correlate with question of accuracy versus criterion. belief in the paranormal and with Sheep might simply have a lower tendency to see forms. Whatever the

372 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 FIGURE 3. Examples of stimuli taken from Blackmore. Galaud. and Walker, in press. For each of the four forms there are seven levels of detectability. Three levels are shown here. Conclusions "Human beings, in trying to Five types of psychic illusion have been make sense of the world, must explored. They may be the basis for make mistakes. They miss many spontaneous psychic experien­ ces that generate belief in the para­ things that are there and invent normal. The tendency for sheep to things that are not." show many of these effects to a greater extent than goats tends to origins of the tendency, the findings confirm this hypothesis. fit with the idea that paranormal belief This conclusion does not apply to may be encouraged in those who more many kinds of psi experiments, espe­ often see form in ambiguity. cially those giving no feedback and using sound randomization tech­ 5. Illusions of Memory niques. It therefore has no bearing on the issue of whether any laboratory In addition to all the processes above, experiments provide evidence for psi. selective memory may make coinci­ Also in life outside the lab these dences appear to occur more often processes may operate to produce than they do in fact occur. Hintzman, psychic experiences and belief in the Asher, and Stern (1978) demonstrated paranormal quite independently of selective remembering of meaning­ whether genuinely paranormal phe­ fully related events. Fischhoff and nomena ever occur. Beyth (1975) showed that people These findings are therefore not so misremember their previous predic­ much evidence against the occurrence tions to conform with what actually of paranormal phenomena as a sug­ happened. gestion that we should expect to find We might predict that people who a high incidence of psychic experiences are particularly prone to such memory and widespread belief in the paranor­ effects are more likely to seek para­ mal whether or not psychic pheno­ normal explanations and therefore to mena ever occur. have psychic experiences and believe in the paranormal. If so, these effects The Nature of Skepticism. would be greater for sheep than for goats, but this has not been tested. The whole basis of this approach is The popularity of fortune-tellers that human beings, in trying to make may also depend to some extent on sense of their world, must make selective memory. Selective recall of mistakes. On the one hand, they miss meaningful coincidences and true things that are there and, on the other, statements about the person will add invent things that are not. This applies to the Barnum effect, or the tendency as much to simple signals as to to accept certain kinds of personality complex correlations and to scientific readings as true of oneself but not of theories as well as to perceptual ones. others (Dickson and Kelly 1985). If I have tried to show some of these this is so we would expect the people in Figure 4. who frequent fortune-tellers to be In everyday life the equivalent of more prone to this kind of selective the sheep is someone who will see memory. Again this has not been something interesting in everything. tested, but a project is now underway The problem is that they may be at Bristol to investigate it. seeing things that are not there. The

374 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 FIGURE 4. The true skeptic is not entrenched at one end of the spectrum. equivalent of the goat is someone who sheep who embraces everything (as is needs lots of evidence before seeing John Palmer's [1986] "progressive or experiencing anything. They are skeptic"). True skeptics can drop their likely to miss out on a lot of fun! fear of looking silly or curtail their love Similarly, in science the equivalent of the novel as appropriate; can apply of the sheep is someone who enjoys caution or stick their neck out accord­ every crazy theory and follows every ing to their understanding of the faint lead. The problem is that they issues. The true skeptic is not the may easily be following a false lead. ultimate goat but something more like The equivalent of the goat is someone a flying horse. who takes no interest in wacky theories and sticks only to the con­ References ventional. They may be safe but are likely to miss the really exciting new Ayeroff, F., and R. P. Abelson. 1976. ESP and ESB: Belief in personal success at theory when it comes along. mental telepathy, journal of Personality You takes your choice and with it and Social Psychology, 34:240-247. the consequences—fun or boredom, Benassi, V. A., P. D. Sweeney, and G. E. fear of failure or love of novelty. But Drevno. 1979. Mind over matter: Per­ ceived success at psychokinesis. Journal what of skepticism? I do not think the of Personality and Social Psychology, true skeptic is the goat. The true 37:1377-1386. skeptic does not always stick to one Blackmore, S. J. 1984. A postal survey of end of the spectrum but can shift OBEs and other experiences. Journal of criteria as the circumstances demand. the Society for Psychical Research, 52:225- 244. The true skeptic is as skeptical of the Blackmore, S. J., K. Galaud, and C. Walker. goat who denies everything as of the In press. "Psychic Experiences as Illusions

Summer 1992 375 of Causality." In Research in Parapsychol­ ESP data, journal of the American Society ogy 1991, ed. by D. Delanoy. Metuchen, for Psychical Research, 73:29-43. N.J.: Scarecrow. Hintzman, D. L., S. J. Asher, and L. D. Stern. Blackmore, S. ]., and T. Troscianko. 1985. 1978. Incidental retrieval and memory for Belief in the paranormal: Probability coincidences. In Practical Aspects of judgements, illusory control, and the Memory, ed. by M. M. Gruneberg, P. E. "chance baseline shift." British journal of Morris, and R. N. Sykes, 61-66, New Psychology, 76:459-468. York: Academic Press. Brugger, P., T. Landis, and M. Regard. 1990. Jones, W. H., D. W. Russell, and T. W. Nickel. A "sheep-goat effect" in repetition 1977. Belief in the Paranormal Scale: An avoidance: Extra-sensory perception as objective instrument to measure beliefs an effect of subjective probability? British in magical phenomena and causes. JSAS journal of Psychology, 81:455-468. Catalog of Selected Documents in Psychology, Budescu, D. V. 1987. A Markov model for 7:100 (Ms. No. 1577). generation of random binary sequences. Jung, C. G. 1973. : An Acausal journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Connecting Principle. Princeton, N.J.: Perception and Performance, 13:25-39. Princeton University Press. Diaconis, P., and F. Mosteller. 1989. Methods Kahneman, D. and A. Tversky. 1972. On for studying coincidences, journal of the prediction and judgment. Oregon Research American Statistical Association, 84:853- Institute Bulletin, 12. 861. . 1973. On the psychology of predic­ Dickson, D. H., and I. W. Kelly. 1985. The tion. Psychological Review, 80:237-251. Barnum effect in personality assessment: Langer, E. J. 1975. The illusion of control. A review of the literature. Psychological Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Reports, 57:367-382. 32:311-328. Einhorn, H. J., and R. M. Hogarth. 1978. Palmer, J. 1979. A community mail survey Confidence in judgement: Persistence of of psychic experiences, journal of the the illusion of validity. Psychological American Society for Psychical Research, Review, 85:395-416. 73:221-252. Falk, R. 1982. On coincidences. SKEPTICAL Palmer, J. 1986. Progressive skepticism, INQUIRER, 6(i):i8-3i. journal of Parapsychology, 50:29-42. Falk, R., and D. MacGregor. 1983. "The Tart, C. T. 1979. Randomicity, predictability Surprisingness of Coincidences." In and mathematical inference strategies in Analysing and Aiding Decision Processes, ESP feedback experiments, journal of the ed. by P. Humphreys, O. Svenson, and American Society for Psychical Research, A. Vari, 489-502. New York: North 73:44-60. Holland. Wagenaar, W. A. 1972. Generation of ran­ Fischhoff, B. and R. Beyth. 1975. "I knew dom sequences by human subjects: A it would happen": Remembered probabil­ critical survey of the literature. Psycho­ ities of once-future things. Organizational logical Bulletin, 77:65-72. Behaviour and Human Performance, 13:1- 16. Susan Blackmore is lecturer in psychology Gallup, G. H., and F. Newport. 1991. Belief at the Department of Social Sciences, in paranormal phenomena among adult University of Bath, and the Department Americans. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, 15:137- of Psychology, University of Bristol, U.K. 146. Gatlin, L. L. 1979. A new measure of bias This article is based on the author's address in finite sequences with applications to at the 1991 CSICOP Conference.

376 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 The Scientist's Skepticism MARIO BUNGE

hose of us who question the beliefs in ghosts, , telepathy, clair­ Tvoyance, psychokinesis, , astral influences, magic, witchcraft, UFO-abductions, , , , psychoanalysis, and the like, call ourselves "skeptics." By so doing we wish to indicate that we adopt Descartes's famous methodical doubt. This is just initial distrust of extraordinary , thoughts, and reports. It is not that skeptics close their minds to strange events but There are two that, before admitting that such events are real, they want to have them checked with new kinds of experiences or reasonings. Skeptics do not skepticism. Only accept naively the first things they perceive or think; they are not gullible. Nor are they one is part of the neophobic. They are just critical; they want to scientific outlook. see evidence before believing.

Two Kinds of Skepticism Methodical doubt is the nucleus of methodological skepticism. This kind of skepticism must be distinguished from systematic skepticism, which denies the possibility of any knowledge and therefore entails that truth is inaccessible, and the search for it vain. The skeptics of both varieties criticize naivete and dogmatism, but whereas methodological skepticism urges us to investigate, systematic skepticism blocks research and thereby leads to the same result as dogmatism, namely, stagnation or worse. The craftsman and the technologist, the manager and the organizer, as well as the scien­ tist and the authentic philosopher, behave as methodological skeptics even if they have never heard about this approach—and even if they behave naively or dogmatically after work hours. In fact, in their professional work they

Summer 1992 377 are not gullible, nor do they disbelieve Methodological skepticism is a everything, but they mistrust any methodological, practical, and moral important idea that has not been put stance. Indeed, those who adopt it to the test and demand the control of believe that it is foolish, imprudent, data as well as the test of conjectures. and morally wrong to announce, They look for new truths instead of practice, or preach important ideas or remaining content with a handful of practices that have not been put to dogmas, but they also hold certain the test or, worse, that have been beliefs. shown in a conclusive manner to be For example, the electrician makes utterly false, inefficient, or harmful. some measurements and tests the (Note the restriction to important installation before delivering it; the beliefs; by definition, trivialities are pharmacologist tests the new drug harmless even when false.) before advising to proceed to its Because we trust research and manufacture in industrial quantities; action based on research findings, we the manager orders marketing are not systematic skeptics. We dis­ research before launching a new believe falsity and suspend judgment product; the editor asks for advice of concerning whatever has not been referees before sending a new work checked, but we believe, at least tem­ to the printer; teachers test their porarily, whatever passed the requi­ students' progress before evaluating site tests. At the same time, we are them; mathematicians attempt to willing to give up whatever beliefs prove or disprove their theorems; prove to be groundless. In sum, physicists, chemists, biologists, and methodological skeptics are construc­ psychologists design and redesign tive. . . . experiments by means of which they test their hypotheses; the sociologist, The Scientist's Skepticism the serious economist, and the political scientist study random samples of the It is impossible to evaluate an idea in populations they are interested in and by itself, independently of some before announcing generalizations system of ideas that is taken as a basis about them—and so on. In all these or standard. When examining any idea cases people search for truth or we do so in the light of further ideas efficiency and, far from admitting that we do not question at the uncritically hypotheses, data, tech­ moment; absolute doubt would be as niques, and plans, they bother to check irrational as absolute belief. Hence them. systematic or radical skepticism is On the other hand, the theologians logically untenable. By the same and school philosophers, the neoclas­ token, every methodological skeptic sical economists and messianic politi­ has some creed or other, however pro­ cians, as well as the pseudoscientists visional it may be. and the counterculture gurus, indulge For example, we evaluate a mathe­ in the luxury of repeating dogmas that matical theorem in the light of its either are untestable or have failed premises and the laws of logic—and rigorous tests. The rest, those of us in turn the latter are evaluated by their who make a living working with our fertility and consistency with mathe­ hands, producing or diffusing knowl­ matics. We judge a physical theory by edge, organizing, or managing organ­ its logical consistency and its mathe­ izations, are supposed to practice matical tidiness as well as according methodological doubt. to its harmony with other physical

378 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 theories and its correspondence with the relevant empirical data. We eval­ uate a chemical theory according to "Methodological skeptics are not the physical theories it takes for gullible, but they do not granted and according to whether or not it jibes with other chemical question everything at once theories as well as with the relevant either. . . . Theirs is a experimental data. We proceed in a similar manner with the remaining qualified, not indiscriminate sciences. In particular, we demand that skepticism." psychology does not violate any biological laws and that the social sciences respect psychology and har­ presupposed in scientific research. monize with one another. (The fact However, it does not take much to that mainstream economics and poli- show that (a) if any of the preceding tology do not care for other social principles were relinquished, scientific sciences is precisely a point against research would miscarry, and (b) the them.) main difference between science and In other words, the scientist's pseudoscience is not so much that the skepticism is methodological and former is true and the latter false, but partial, not systematic and total. that pseudoscience does not abide by Serious researchers are neither gul­ those principles—as a consequence of lible nor nihilistic; they do not embrace which it seldom delivers truth and it beliefs uncritically, but do admit, at never corrects itself. least until new notice, a host of data Not all skeptics share these philo­ and theories. Their skepticism is sophical principles. Most of them constructive, not just critical. believe that only scientific method Moreover, in every case the meth­ applied to data-gathering is required odological or moderate skeptic presup­ to conduct scientific research. How­ poses—albeit seldom explicitly—that ever, it is possible to apply the scien­ scientific theories and methods satisfy tific method to a nonscientific certain philosophical requirements. investigation, such as trying to mea­ These are (a) materialism: everything sure the speed of ghosts or the in the universe is concrete or material, intensity of the action of mind on though not necessarily corporeal, and matter. To yield knowledge, the scien­ everything behaves lawfully; (b) real­ tific method must be accompanied by ism: the world exists independently of a scientific world-view: materialist, those who study it, and moreover it realist, rationalist, empiricist, and can be known at least partially and systemic. This is the core of a skeptic's gradually; (c) rationalism: our ideas credo. ought to be internally consistent and they should cohere with one another; Conclusion (d) empiricism: every idea about real things should be empirically testable; Methodological skeptics are not gul­ and (e) systemism: the data and hy­ lible, but they do not question every­ potheses of science are not stray but thing at once either. They believe constitute a system (for details, see whatever has been demonstrated or Bunge 1983a, 1983b). has been shown to have strong No doubt, few scientists realize empirical support. They disbelieve that these five principles are indeed whatever clashes with logic or with

Summer 1992 379 the bulk of scientific knowledge and ing should be a common endeavor of its underlying philosophical hypoth­ scientists, technologists, philosophers, eses. Theirs is a qualified, not in­ and educators. Given the massive discriminate skepticism. commerical exploitation of junk cul­ The methodological skeptics ture, as well as the current decline in uphold many principles and, above all, the teaching of science and technology they trust humans to advance even in numerous countries, unless we further in the knowledge of reality. work harder on debunking pseudo- Their faith is critical, not blind; it is science and pseudotechnology we the explorer's faith not the believer's. shall be in for a sharp decline of They do not believe anything in the modern civilization (see Bunge 1989). absence of evidence, but they are willing to explore bold new ideas if References they find reasons to suspect that they have a chance (see, for example, Bunge Bunge, M. 1983a. Exploring the World. 1983c). They are open-minded but not Dordrecht: Reidel. blank-minded; they are quick to filter . 1983b. Understanding the World. Dordrecht: Reidel. out intellectual rubbish. . 1983c. Speculation: Wild and sound. For example, methodological skep­ New Ideas in Psychology, 1:3-6. tics find no reason to engage in . 1989. The popular perception of science in North America. Transactions of experimental investigations before the Royal Society of Canada, ser. V, 4:269- denying that pure thought may ener­ 280. gize machines, that surgery can be performed by sheer mental power, Mario Bunge is in the Foundations and that magical incantations or solutions Philosophy of Science Unit, McGill of one part in ten raised to the 100th University, Montreal, H3A lW7, power have therapeutic power, that Canada. This article is excerpted by perpetual-motion machines can be permission from the opening and conclud­ built, or that there are solve-all ing sections of "A Skeptic's Beliefs and theories. All such beliefs can be Disbeliefs," the lead article of a special demolished by wielding some well- issue of New Ideas in Psychology (vol. tested scientific or philosophical 9, no. 2, 1991, Pergamon Press) devoted principles. This strategy is certainly to "Mario Bunge on Nonscientific cheaper than naive empiricism. Psychology and Pseudoscience: A Debate." To conclude. Pseudoscience and That journal's editor, Pierre Moessinger, pseudotechnology are the modern in a leadoff editorial about its first special versions of . They issue, says: "Mario Bunge is one of the must be subjected to critical scrutiny few great philosophers of science of our not only to clean up culture but also times. More precisely, he is both a to prevent quacks from cleaning out philosopher and a scientist. . . . What our pockets. And to criticize them it is so extraordinary about Bunge is the is not enough to show that they lack breadth of his intellectual interests and his empirical support—for, after all, one ability to coordinate and synthesize might believe that such support could problems. ..." Bunge's paper was be forthcoming. We must also show originally given as the Keynote Address that those beliefs in the arcane or in at the CSICOP conference on "Magical the paranormal clash with either well- Thinking and Its Prevalence in the World established scientific theories or fertile Today," held at the Universidad Nacional philosophical principles. For this Autonoma de Mexico City, November 10, reason, the criticism of magical think­ 1989. Bunge is a CSICOP Fellow.

380 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 The Persistent Popularity of The Paranormal t

JAMES LETT

aranormal beliefs are firmly entrenched in our society. An overwhelming majority of Pall Americans hold at least some beliefs that are nonrational, nonscientific, and nonsen­ sical (Gallup and Newport 1991), and the level of paranormal belief in the United States actually seems to be increasing (Frazier 1987). The irony, of course, is that no culture in the history of humanity has ever possessed a greater The battle to store of objective, accurate, and reliable knowl­ edge about the universe. diminish That irony is well appreciated by the physicist paranormal Victor Stenger, who offers a thorough critique of transcendental claims in his recent book beliefs is certainly Physics and Psychics. Stenger (1990:298) writes worth fighting, but that he is "astonished that so many people in a modern nation like the United States still take scientists and the paranormal seriously," and then he goes on skeptics should to say that he "shudder[s] at what this fact realize that it will implies about the general state of scientific education in America." probably never As a science educator, I share Professor be won. Stenger's concerns about the deplorable state of scientific education in our country. Those concerns have led me to develop a course at my college called "Anthropology and the Paranormal," which attempts to teach students the fundamentals of critical thinking (Lett 1990). As an anthropologist, however, I am not at all astonished by the popularity of the paranormal, and I am aware that all of my best efforts, and all of the collective best efforts of all the world's scientists and skeptics, are not likely to appreciably diminish the level of paranormal belief. To understand why that's true, you simply have to look at the underlying reasons for the

Summer 1992 popularity of the paranormal. Those beings are likely to seek reassurance reasons are well understood by in paranormal beliefs whenever they anthropologists and widely appre­ face situations where the outcome is ciated by many other skeptics (see, for uncertain or beyond their control. example, Singer and Benassi 1981; Subsequent anthropological research Kurtz 1984; Asimov 1986). In brief, around the world has confirmed the the popularity of the paranormal in obvious truth of Malinowski's princi­ the United States can be attributed to ple. four principal factors: the uncertainty It might seem, then, that the level of the public, the unreliability of the of paranormal belief in the United media, the inadequacy of the educa­ States should be on the decline, given tional system, and the inaccuracy of the scientific advances of the past the American worldview. Let me century that have substantially review each of the factors in turn, and increased our understanding and then consider why they ensure the control of so many facets of reality. persistence of paranormal beliefs. However, the evidence indicates that 1. The Uncertainty of the Public. the average American's degree of Anthropologists have documented the certainty and security about life has fact that religion is a cultural univer­ actually decreased over the past sal. Belief in the supernatural—in a generation or so, at the same time that reality that is not necessarily amenable the incidence of paranormal beliefs has to the five senses—occurs in every increased. The reason? In a phrase, society on the planet. American rapid and profound culture change. culture is hardly unique in having a Millions of Americans are increas­ range of paranormal beliefs. What is ingly bewildered and disoriented by remarkable about American culture at the far-reaching changes that have the moment is that paranormal beliefs occurred in virtually every aspect of seem to be proliferating, and that daily life since World War II. The presents an interesting anthropolog­ American family has undergone rad­ ical puzzle. Why are the proponents ical restructuring, sexual morality has of some of the most preposterous and been turned upside-down, gender platitudinous forms of the paranormal roles have been substantially rede­ able to attract such wide followings? fined, the birth rate has dropped, the The answer is fairly simple. Since divorce rate has jumped, the crime early in this century, when Bronislaw rate has soared, the cost of living has Malinowski first published the results skyrocketed, the quality of American- of his ethnographic research in the made goods and services has plum­ southwestern Pacific, anthropologists meted, the average real income of have known that people are likely to American households has fallen, the turn to magical solutions to solve their international power and prestige of problems when practical solutions are the country has declined, the impov­ unavailable. In a classic study, Mali­ erished underclass has mushroomed, nowski noticed that the inhabitants of and the American dream of home the Trobriand Islands always used ownership has become unattainable magical rituals to protect themselves for increasing numbers of middle-class when fishing in the rough, shark- citizens. The population of the planet infested of the open ocean, but is growing at an alarming rate, the never turned to magic when fishing world's natural resources are being in the calm, protected waters of the readily depleted, the environment is lagoon. He concluded that human suffering calamitous abuse, and the

382 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 threat of nuclear annihilation still hangs over the whole of humanity. Small wonder, then, that millions "Human beings are likely to of Americans are suspicious of the seek reassurance in paranormal present and fearful of the future. At the beginning of the past decade, the beliefs whenever they face anthropologist Marvin Harris (1981) situations where the outcome is noted these trends in American life and linked them to a number of uncertain or beyond their phenomena, including the rise of the control." Moonies and other nontraditional religious cults, the popularity of Carlos Castaneda's shamanic mysti­ apparently, whether their explana­ cism, the development of , tions are true or false; it only matters the growth of Transcendental Med­ that they are emotionally satisfying. itation and other self-help strategies, For millions of Americans, paranormal and the emergence of the televange- beliefs fulfill that criterion. lists. What was true ten years ago is 2. The Unreliability of the Media. even more true today. For millions of Book and magazine publishers, tele­ Americans, life is a perplexing, fright­ vision and movie producers, and ening, and unsatisfying whirl, and newspaper and broadcast journalists they are looking for a way off the are all sure about one thing when it merry-go-round. They are looking for comes to the paranormal: it sells. answers. There is a huge market for stories It should be no surprise that (true or not) about ghosts, reincarna­ millions of Americans find their tion, ESP, psychics, UFOs, ancient answers in paranormal beliefs. At a astronauts, , the Bermuda time when traditional religious insti­ Triangle, and every other imaginable tutions are declining in influence variety of the paranormal, and the (because of their increasing irrele­ media reap huge profits by producing vance to the new facts of daily life), a large quantity of uncritical material paranormal beliefs are emerging as to supply that demand. the new folk . The reason, as The entertainment media un­ Isaac Asimov (1986:212) pithily puts ashamedly fuel the public passion for it, is obvious: "Inspect every piece of the paranormal. They do so even pseudoscience and you will find a when they themselves—writers, edi­ security blanket, a thumb to suck, a tors, and producers—recognize this skirt to hold." Paul Kurtz (1986) nonsense for what it is. Time-Life argues that the tendency to embrace Books, for example, is promoting a nonempirical explanations of puzzling best-selling series of pro-paranormal phenomena is deeply rooted in the books called "Mysteries of the human psyche—he calls it the "trans­ Unknown," despite the fact that the cendental temptation." I would agree. editors know very well that nothing By their nature, human beings are of what they are publishing is either meaning-seeking animals, but the sad mysterious or unknown. (Time mag­ conclusion of cross-cultural anthropo­ azine has frequently published skep­ logical research is that most individual tical stories about the paranormal, humans, and all human cultures, are including, for example, a December 7, content with the illusion of meaning. 1987, cover story about the New Age, For most people, it matters not, and a June 13, 1988, feature article

Summer 1992 383 about magician/investigator James the distinguished journalism profes­ Randi.) sor Curtis MacDougall (1983) com­ The news media, which are regu­ piled a voluminous list of preposterous lated to a certain extent by both the paranormal claims that had been law and their own professional stand­ credulously reported by reputable ards, supposedly offer the public the newspapers in American cities. Mac­ objective truth about paranormal Dougall died in 1985, but an equally phenomena. In practice, however, the energetic reader and clipper would be news media are only slightly more able to compile an annual update that skeptical than the entertainment would add substantially to MacDou- media; far too frequently, they are just gall's 600-page book. (In fact, the as credulous when it comes to the Education Subcommittee of CSICOP paranormal. maintains such a file—see Feder 1987- The infamous Tamara Rand 88.) The broadcast media, as a whole, is widely recalled by skeptics (Frazier are equally uncritical. and Randi 1981), although it has There are two reasons for the undoubtedly been forgotten by the paranormal receiving such a promi­ general public. Rand was the self- nent play in the news media. In the professed psychic who claimed to have first place, journalists know that the accurately predicted the attempted public is greatly interested in stories assassination of Ronald Reagan in about the paranormal, and there are March 1981. Four days after John major incentives—they are called Hinckley shot the president, three of ratings and circulation—to give the the four major television news net­ public what it wants. In the second works broadcast a videotape of Rand's place (and this is the more disturbing prediction, which she said was made and more dangerous of the two more than two months before the factors), most journalists lack the assassination attempt. Investigation knowledge, training, and experience revealed that the tape had been made to critically evaluate paranormal 24 hours after the shooting; after claims. Journalism professor Philip repeated requests from CSICOP, the Meyer (1986:39-40) admits that many networks retracted their stories. journalists don't even care about the The real indictment, however, lies objective truth of the matter: "It not in the fact that the networks were doesn't make any difference what the slow to correct their error, but in the facts are—if somebody with an fact that they could ever have made impressive-sounding degree or title such an error in the first place. How says something interesting, then it's could the networks have reported a story." such an improbable story without any As a cultural anthropologist, I have preliminary investigation whatso­ many things in common with journal­ ever? No such lack of skepticism ists: both of us are interested in would be applied to any political story observing, recording, describing, and by any self-respecting journalist. The explaining human behavior. There are unfortunate truth is that the lessons important differences between us, of the Tamara Rand incident made however, one of which is the way we little impression upon the news media. define "objectivity." As a scientist, They continue to apply the same un­ objectivity means, for me, being fair critical standards in their reporting on to the truth; for the journalist (and the paranormal. I speak from personal experience, In his book and the Press, having spent time as a television

384 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 journalist), objectivity means being fair to everyone involved. I've written about these issues "Human beings are meaning- before (Lett 1986; 1987), and my seeking animals, but the sad conclusion is that journalists are not likely to become skeptics. As long as conclusion of cross-cultural the paranormal sells, journalists anthropological research is that cannot afford to debunk it. They are, after all, competing with the enter­ most individual humans, and tainment media for the attention of all human cultures, are content the public. News coverage of the notorious shroud of Turin provides an with the illusion of meaning." illuminating example. On September 27, 1988, when it was publicly marily upon the media for their revealed that radiocarbon dating had knowledge and understanding of the proved that the shroud could not be world. The knowledge offered by the the burial cloth of Christ, ABC News media is hardly reliable, however. On reported that scientists were never­ balance, the message of both the theless baffled as to how the image entertainment and the news media could have been made. Not true, of with regard to the paranormal is the course—scientists know very well same: namely, that there is, or at least how the image could have been made very well may be, another dimension (see Nickell 1983; 1989)—but that's to ordinary reality that is well known what journalistic "objectivity" means. to the average citizen but obscure to I am aware that there are excep­ established scientists, who tend to be tions. Beginning on November 28, cloistered, conservative, and closed- 1988, to name one outstanding minded. Obviously that message is instance, "Good Morning America" highly misleading. broadcast a three-part series on 3. The Inadequacy of the Educational astrology by ABC News consumer System. The scientific method has been editor John Stossel. Stossel was responsible for an enormous and unabashedly skeptical in his report— unprecedented increase in the fund of he called astrology "total nonsense"— human knowledge in the past century, and he did an excellent job of clearly yet the American public-educational and forcefully debunking the para­ system fails to teach students the basic normal claims of Hollywood astrol­ principles of that method. Beginning oger Joyce Jillson. Nevertheless, such in grade school, and continuing, reports are by far the exception rather unfortunately, through high school than the rule in broadcast news. and college, students are taught The real significance of the fact science as though it were a body of that the media are generally uncritical facts, a dry and static subject matter, lies in the fact that the media are, in rather than a technique for acquiring addition, highly pervasive and highly knowledge. The skills of evidential influential (see Kottak 1990). The reasoning and logical analysis that are media are an important agent of the heart of the scientific approach are enculturation for all Americans, and rarely identified and examined; they are a predominant source of instead, students are given the task information for Americans who have of memorizing the products of past completed their formal schooling. scientific research. Most adult Americans depend pri- These points are well appreciated

Summer 1992 385 by many science educators, of course, ism is a disease (as are drug addiction, especially at the university level. overeating, undereating, and any Charles Vigue (1988:326), for exam­ number of antisocial activities and ple, is a biology professor who helped proclivities, such as an apolitical develop an interdisciplinary course motivation for political assassination); called "The Nature of Science," which human beings have souls, which are explores such topics as "deductive and in some way independent of their inductive logic," "scientific methodol­ bodies; there is life after death; a ogy," "causal and noncausal explana­ benevolent, omnipotent, omniscient tion," "the interpretation of data," and deity exists and is concerned about the the like. Nevertheless, these topics are personal fate of every individual on rarely addressed in pre-collegiate the planet. science classrooms, and they continue Each of these assumptions is part to be deemphasized in post-secondary of the American worldview; each is curricula. widely accepted by the great majority All of which means that most of Americans, each enjoys consider­ students finish their schooling with­ able prestige, and each is firmly out developing their abilities to think institutionalized in the legal, social, critically, reason logically, or evaluate political, economic, and educational properly. They have learned to respect systems of our culture—yet each is, the accomplishments of science, and by any reasonable measure, patently they have learned to recognize the and completely untrue. None of them superficial trappings of science (such enjoys evidential support, and none of as lofty credentials, impressive jargon, them can withstand logical and empir­ lengthy citations, and professional ical scrutiny. Because these proposi­ conferences). Unfortunately, a little tions are part of the culture's world- learning can be a dangerous thing, view, however, most Americans take because that leaves students easy prey them for granted and regard them as for pseudoscientists, who can often obvious givens. Indeed, as far as most claim those same superficial trappings Americans are concerned, anyone for themselves. who would even think to question 4. The Inaccuracy of the American these basic assumptions would have Worldview. Every culture has a to be lacking in common sense. "worldview," a set of assumptions These dubious assumptions about about the nature of reality, and every the nature of reality can pose a culture's worldview is a mix of sense fundamental obstacle to the rational and nonsense. The American world- investigation of paranormal pheno­ view—to which all of us who are mena. Using the methods of scientific native members of U.S. society are investigation, for example, you can enculturated from the moment of show someone that extrasensory birth—includes a large number of perception does not exist (or at least erroneous assumptions. that it has never been demonstrated), Consider, for example, the follow­ and the average American is likely to ing propositions: polygraphists can respond (as many of my students detect lies; graphologists can discern have) with the following syllogism: I personality traits from handwriting know that God exists; the proposition samples; psychotherapists can diag­ that God exists cannot be substan­ nose, treat, and cure "mental illnesses" tiated by the methods of scientific based on a scientific understanding of investigation; therefore there must be human personality processes; alcohol­ something wrong with the methods

386 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 of scientific investigation, at least the culture's worldview. That's a when those methods are applied to the daunting task, and the sad truth is that supernatural (or paranormal). That it will probably never be accomplished. argument is perfectly valid; it is, of We might someday succeed in inspiring course, unsound, because the first the media to be more responsible on premise is indefensible, but for psy­ these subjects (although I doubt it), chological and political reasons it can we might manage to restructure the be very difficult to explain that to educational system (although I suspect students. the possibility is remote), but we will In short, when we try to decrease never be able to appreciably reduce the incidence of paranormal beliefs in anxiety, because we will never be able American society by appealing to the to eliminate the sources of anxiety. As rationality of Americans, we are long as death, disease, disability, fighting an uphill battle, because we disaster, and disharmony exist, para­ are dealing with an audience that has normal beliefs will flourish. been persuaded that nonrational thinking is perfectly appropriate in some cases. Moreover, when we use "No amount of training in rationality to attack beliefs like pre­ cognition and psychokinesis, we are evidential reasoning will be implicitly attacking such beliefs as the sufficient to dissuade most efficacy of psychotherapy and the immortality of the soul. The degree people from beliefs to which of intellectual and emotional commit­ they have a strong emotional ment to such beliefs is overwhelming, and it is a rare individual who will commitment." examine the merits of that commitment. I know from personal experience Collectively, I believe, these four that showing people the facts, and factors—the uncertainty of the public, teaching them how to think critically, the unreliability of the media, the will not necessarily be enough to get inadequacy of the educational system, them to abandon paranormal beliefs. and the inaccuracy of the American In teaching my course on "Anthropol­ worldview—explain the popularity of ogy and the Paranormal," I'm often paranormal beliefs in American cul­ able to persuade my students that the ture today. The stresses and strains evidence doesn't support their belief of life account for the appeal of para­ in the or normal beliefs, the uncritical publica­ or spontaneous human combustion, tion of extraordinary claims accounts but I rarely succeed in persuading for the source of paranormal beliefs, students that the evidence doesn't and the widespread inability to think support their belief in life after death. critically, together with the cultural No amount of training in evidential legitimization of uncritical thinking, reasoning will be sufficient to dissuade accounts for the persistence of para­ most people from beliefs to which they normal beliefs. have a strong emotional commitment. The only way to diminish the Nevertheless, I am not willing to incidence of paranormal beliefs, then, capitulate and to allow irrationality to is to address all four problems: to go unchallenged. I agree in principle somehow reduce anxiety, revamp the with Carl Sagan (1986:227) that "the media, reform education, and revise best antidote for pseudoscience . . .

Summer 1992 387 is science," and I believe that the wide- Tamara Rand hoax. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, ranging efforts of CSICOP represent 6(l):4-7. our best hope for an effective response Gallup, George H., Jr., and Frank Newport. 1991. Belief in paranormal phenomena to paranormal beliefs. We should among adult Americans. SKEPTICAL encourage scientists to share their INQUIRER, 15:137-146. knowledge with the general public, Harris, Marvin. 1981. America Now: The just as we should encourage journal­ Anthropology of a Changing Culture. New ists and other members of the mass York: Simon and Schuster. Kottak, Conrad Phillip. 1990. Prime-Time media to exercise responsible judg­ Society: An Anthropological Analysis of ment in the publication of nonfiction Television and Culture. Belmont, Calif.: (and everything proffered as nonfic­ Wadsworth. tion). We should insist that instruction Kurtz, Paul. 1984. Debunking, neutrality, in critical-thinking skills be incorpo­ and skepticism in science. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, 8:239-246. rated into educational curricula at all . 1986. The Transcendental Temptation: grade levels. We should, in addition, A Critique of Religion and the Paranormal. encourage the deinstitutionalization Buffalo, N.Y.: . of pseudoscience in our culture (for Lett, James. 1986. Anthropology and jour­ example, I would support efforts to nalism. Communicator, 40(5):33-35. . 1987. An anthropological view of make it illegal for psychotherapists to television journalism. Human Organiza­ give expert testimony in court). tion, 46(4):356-359. What we shouldn't do, however, is . 1990. A field guide to critical thinking: Six simple rules to follow in examining delude ourselves. Skepticism, unfor­ paranormal claims. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, tunately, isn't a drug that will cure 14:153-160. irrationality, or even a vaccine that MacDougall, Curtis D. 1983. Superstition and will prevent it; at best, skepticism is the Press. Buffalo, N.Y.: Prometheus only an antidote to an insidious poison. Books. Meyer, Philip. 1986. Ghostbusters: The press The problem, however, is that the and the paranormal. Columbia Journalism antidote of skepticism isn't effective Review, March/April, pp. 38-41. for everyone who's exposed to the Nickell, Joe. 1983. Inquest on the Shroud of poison. It's only effective for people Turin. Buffalo, N.Y.: Prometheus Books, who have the qualities of heart and (Updated paperback ed., 1987.) . 1989. Unshrouding a mystery: Sci­ mind required to face the anxieties and ence, pseudoscience, and the cloth of uncertainties of life without the quick Turin. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, 13:296-299. comfort and simple answers offered Sagan, Carl. 1986. Night walkers and by paranormal beliefs. As long as mystery mongers: Sense and nonsense at the edge of science. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, those qualities remain in short supply 10(3):218-228. among the general public, paranormal Singer, B., and V. A. Benassi. 1981. Occult beliefs will continue to be prevalent. beliefs. American Scientist, 69:49-55. Stenger, Victor J. 1990. Physics and Psychics: The Search for a World Beyond the Senses. References Buffalo, N.Y.: Prometheus Books. Vigue, Charles L. 1988. Teaching the nature Asimov, Isaac. 1986. The perennial fringe. of science. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, 12:325- SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, 10:212-214. 326. Feder, Ken. 1987-88. Trends in popular media: Credulity still reigns. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, 12:124-126. James W. Lett is a professor of anthro­ Frazier, Kendrick. 1987. Mainlining of pology at Indian River Community mysticism: Poll shows new popularity College, Ft. Pierce, Florida. He is the (News and Comment). SKEPTICAL author of The Human Enterprise: A INQUIRER, 11:333-334. Critical Introduction to Anthropolog­ Frazier, Kendrick, and James Randi. 1981. Prediction after the fact: Lessons of the ical Theory.

388 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 Self-Help Books Pseudoscience in the Guise of Science? EILEEN GAMBRILL

elf-help books are a tradition in the United States (Starker 1989), and they have long Sbeen recognized as sources of moral guidance. As Starker (1989:15) describes, they "became increasingly established in the eigh­ teenth century as a repository of useful and practical knowledge. [They] offered readers advancement in skill, wealth, and social status under the tutelage of successful and respected figures while remaining within the framework of the Protestant ethic." Benjamin Franklin's it A review of writings encouraged people to advance socially through their own efforts. He himself kept track benefits and of 17 virtues, such as temperance ("Eat not to dangers of self- dullness.") and tranquility ("Be not disturbed by trifles"), in an effort to alter his own behavior help books and a (Silverman 1986). Self-improvement books consumer's guide provided religious leaders a format for diffusing prescriptive guidelines; and, indeed, self-help to selection of books "emerged from a religious context" self-help material. (Starker 1989: 37). In his book Oracle at the Supermarket (1989: 10), Starker writes that the self-help book in America "appears to occupy a social niche roughly on a par with that of the legendary oracle at Delphi. Offering wisdom and enlight­ enment at discount prices, it has the ability to speak with a vast audience on a variety of topics and provides specific directions for achieving love, health, money, peace of mind, and any number of practical skills." Social historians have suggested that self is a modern-day term for "soul" and that there has been a progression from the use of "the soul" to "the mind" and now to "the self." If this is true, then indeed Starker (1989) is correct in viewing self-help books as a modern-day oracle replacing older sources of guidance, such as organized religion. A belief in mind power (the power to change

Summer 1992 through changing what we think) is help books indicates that, when they a key part of the "American myth of spend their money and time on them, success" (Weiss 1969; see also Wyllie people indeed seek certain promised 1954). outcomes. As Starker (1989:10) notes: In the broadest sense, a self-help "Inasmuch as self-help books are book could be any book that helps dispensing advice to millions on people in some way, whether or not matters physical, psychological, and the author expresses an intent to help. spiritual, they cannot responsibly be For example, in this broad sense the ignored by social scientists and health Bible could probably be described as care professionals. Questions regard­ the most popular self-help book. My ing their relative merits and potential concern here is with self-help books dangers deserve careful attention." related to self-change (not those that What are the possible benefits? describe how to build a bookcase or They include the attainment of de­ how to repair a television set). Rosen sired outcomes with little expenditure (1981: 190) defines a self-help book of time, money, and effort, and access by "the claims and contents of the to accurate information about partic­ book itself. This leaves responsibility ular outcomes or problems of interest for labeling a book as 'treatment' (e.g., social anxiety, depression) as well where it belongs, namely, in the hands as about the conditions required for of the one who writes the book"—and, self-change. Other possible benefits it could be added, in the hands of the include enhancing self-change skills publishers who prepare bookjackets and decreasing beliefs that get in the and other promotional materials. way of self-change. Sales of self-help books are increas­ Dangers of ineffective self-help ing (Rosen 1987). About two thousand materials have been described by are published each year (Doheny Rosen (1981). These include an 1988). Audio cassettes and videotapes increase in hopelessness and helpless­ have also entered the self-help market. ness when desired outcomes do not A recent study found that 60 percent occur, neglect of other methods that of psychologists prescribe self-help might be successful—such as consult­ books to supplement their treatment ing a clinician—and a worsening of (see Starker 1988). Some of these problems. Additional dangers include books do seem to offer readers what the fostering of superstitious beliefs they promise (see, for example, DeAn- and the suppression of real sources of gelis 1991). I will first review potential influence over valued outcomes! This benefits and dangers of self-help may make attainment of desired goals books and then present guidelines less likely. Self-help books may potential consumers can use in select­ increase rather than decrease incor­ ing self-help material. rect views about self-change and how it can be accomplished. They may Potential Dangers and Benefits encourage a dysfunctional focus on the self and on one's problems or of Self-Help Books encourage the unrealistic view that It could be argued that guidelines to life should be without problems (see, help consumers select self-help books for example, Barsky 1988; Kayne and that deliver what they promise are not Alloy 1988) and may foster dysfunc­ appropriate because people read such tional attributions (see Taylor and books for entertainment. But do they? Brown 1988 for a discussion of the Research into why people read self- value of positive illusions).

390 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 • I

IB,

The Suppression and Mystification gy highways commuting from home of Real Sources of Influence to office, pressure to make more money to buy discretionary consumer Self-help focuses on the individual items, and so on. who is attempting to alter his or her The fundamental attribution error own behavior, thoughts, or feelings (that of overlooking environmental to attain specific goals. Individual causes of problems and focusing on change, however, is but one level of dispositional causes) is common and intervention. Many other levels may is likely to be encouraged by a focus be required to attain valued outcomes on the self (Nisbett and Ross 1980; like losing weight or becoming less Miller and Porter 1988). Encouraging anxious, less depressed, or happier. a focus on the self may increase The focus on self-help obscures the depression in people who already tend role of political, social, and economic to focus extensively on themselves factors that influence most of the (Kayne and Alloy 1988). Self-help behaviors that individuals try to alter books may encourage unhelpful views through self-change. This focus also of "the self" (for example, they may often exaggerates the potential a support a search for the "true self.") person has to alter his or her envir­ I have already noted the continuity of onment and self (Gambrill 1990). It's the terms soul, mind, and self. Thus like using only a few of the keys on the term self is a heavily loaded, almost a piano to play a polonaise. sacrosanct concept, and writers and Let's take a look at stress, for publishers of self-help books often example. Many factors related to take advantage (sometimes to the stress are environmental—high noise detriment of their readers) of this levels, hours spent on crowded smog- heavily value-laden term and the

Summer 1992 391 ideology that accompanies it—that individuals are more likely than others there are no limits to what can be to profit from self-help formats (see, accomplished through self-change. for example, Kivlighan and Shapiro Rosen (1981) has for some time 1987). We know that there are dif­ pointed out the dangers of self-help ferent kinds of self-change goals; some books written by psychologists (see are given a higher status than others also Becvar 1978; Barrera, Rosen, and (Carver and Scheier 1986). People 1981). Have these warnings differ in their repertoire of self-change been taken to heart? Hardly. As he skills and in their history of using points out, even psychologists who them to attain valued outcomes. argue against publication of untested Research on self-management and material themselves often go on to self-instruction suggests that some publish self-help books with exagger­ methods and formats are more likely ated, untested claims (Rosen 1990). As than others to facilitate self-help. To Rosen (1990:3) writes, consumers are what extent do self-help books build being "flooded with new untested do- on this knowledge about self- it-yourself therapies." management.

What Do We Know About Questions to Ask Self-Change? Are expected outcomes clearly described? Self-help books usually promise great changes with little effort. Is that Vague descriptions of outcomes (e.g., possible? If so, under what conditions? increased self-actualization) have a Are there limits to self-help? If so, number of disadvantages, including what are they? Under what conditons difficulty in planning how to attain do they arise? We know a great deal them and in evaluating progress (see about the potential for and limitations Table 1). of self-change. (See, for example, Agran and Martella 1991; Kanfer and Who is (and who is not) likely to benefit? Schefft 1988; Mahalik and Kivlighan Who may be harmed? 1988; Peterson 1983; Prochaska et al. 1985; Scogin et al. 1990; Stuart 1977; Readers should ask: Is this book likely Watson and Tharp 1989). The poten­ to help me? What evidence is given tial is impressive. For example, com­ that it will help me? Have any exper­ parison of self-exposure instruction imental studies been conducted in from a psychiatrist, a self-help book, which people are randomly assigned or a computer showed that phobic to different groups, including a control individuals assigned to any one of group composed of individuals who do these three groups improved (Ghesh not have access to the self-help and Marks 1987). The book used in material? If so, what are the results? this program included detailed Do all people benefit, or just some? instructions. It is difficult for people How long do gains last? Who is most to clearly identify what they did to likely to benefit? Has anyone been achieve change. They often attribute harmed? Was the book itself tested changes in their behavior (such as under the same conditions readers will stopping smoking) to "will power." It be using it? Often only testimonials is often difficult to convince readers are offered or the presumed expertise to comply with suggested procedures of the author is used to buttress claims for self-change. Certain kinds of made. Views about what has been

392 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 TABLE 1

A Consumer's Checklist Questions to Ask About Self-Help Books

• Are expected outcomes clearly described (what/where/how long will they last)?

• What evidence is there that the book is helpful for people like me? Haw credible is this information? (Are the results of experimental studies reported?) What is the success rate? What is the failure rate? Are there any potential negative effects of the program? What are they? How long will gains be maintained?

• Will this book help me to develop accurate beliefs about self-change?

• Will this book help me to acquire accurate information about outcomes or problems of interest?

• Will this book help me to accurately identify problems?

• Will this book help me to clearly define my goals and and to identify changes required to achieve these goals?

• Are guidelines provided to help me assess my current knowledge and skills?

• Will this book help me to select effective self-change methods?

• Are guidelines for evaluating progress provided?

• Are the instruction formats used the most likely to be effective?

• Are effective methods described that will help me to carry out needed tasks (that will "motivate me")?

• Does the book describe how I can generalize and maintain positive outcomes?

• Are troubleshooting aids included to help me if I get stuck?

helpful may not reflect what is actually accurately assess claims. They will the case. Research in psychotherapy accept claims based on pseudoscience as well as in social psychology indicates as readily as those based on science that we do not necessarily accurately (Bunge 1984). perceive or report the degree of change (see, for example, Nisbett and Will this book help me to develop accurate Ross 1980; Schnelle 1974). Consumer beliefs about self-change? satisfaction ratings are often quite high (Lebow 1983) whether or not People have beliefs about self- people gained what they originally change—what it is, what it requires, sought from counseling (Zilbergeld and what ethical and moral prescrip­ 1983). tions relate to it in terms of respon­ Many people do not understand sibility. Many people believe that they what science is and what it is not can change by using will power. Belief (Miller 1987) and do not have the in will power for overcoming common critical-thinking skills required to problems, such as shyness, smoking,

Summer 1992 393 as unworthy, the person may feel even worse than before. Or consider people "The focus on self-help obscures who believe that their difficulty in the role of political, social, and meeting others is due to poor personal appearance, when in fact it is because economic factors that influence they are not actively seeking out most of the behaviors that promising social situations and initiat­ ing conversations. Here, too, the focus individuals try to alter through of change may be misdirected. self-change." Rosen (1981:190) emphasized the importance of "self-diagnosis." One of the seven guidelines he has proposed and fear of flying, is widespread for reviewers of self-help books is this: (Knapp and Delprato 1980). (For a "Does the book provide a basis for self- review of lay theories, see Furnham diagnosis . . . and have the methods 1987). Does the book discuss personal for self-diagnosis been evaluated to beliefs about self-change and help establish rates of false positives and readers to acquire accurate beliefs false negatives." He points out that based on research about self-change? "there is not a single published study concerning the ability of individuals Will this book increase (or decrease) accu­ to self-diagnose a problem." Selection rate information about topics addressed? of specific behaviors to focus on may not become clear until further infor­ Does the book offer accurate infor­ mation is gathered, as described in the mation about an outcome or problem next sections. area of concern? Not all books offer accurate, up-to-date information. Will this book help me to clearly define Rosenthal and Yalem (1985), for ex­ my goals and to identify the changes ample, found that suicide-prevention required to achieve them? information presented in self-help books was not always accurate. Readers approach self-help books with different goals. Some wish to alter a Will this book help me to accurately specific behavior, such as to stop identify problems? smoking. Others have vague goals, such as becoming a better person. If Errors in problem definition are one clear rather than vague goals are of the main sources of failure of all pursued, attaining desired outcomes kinds of programs. The histories of is more likely and progress can be medicine and psychiatry are replete carefully followed. Although readers with instances of inaccurate identifi­ may say that they received help from cation of problems and their causes, a particular book, unless outcomes are with resultant ineffective or iatro­ clearly described and progress mon­ genic results (e.g., Morgan 1983). itored, the results are really unknown. Consider the example of someone A feeling of being helped may not be with low self-worth who inaccurately accompanied by a real change in believes that excess weight is the behavior. People may feel better but reason for this low self-worth. The not be better. In some cases this might entire focus of self-change in such a be satisfactory (if nothing can be done case would be misdirected. When to achieve desired outcomes). But weight is lost but the self is still viewed what if desired outcomes could be

394 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 TABLE 2

Sources of Error in Making Judgments Acquiring Information

• Attending to vivid (but uninformative or misleading) data. • Seeking data that confirm expectations. • Ignoring conflicting data. • Mistaking correlation for causation. • Overlooking environmental causes and focusing on dispositional (personal) characteristics (the fundamental attribution error). Output • Influence of choice of format. • Wishful thinking (our preferences influence our view of events). • The illusion of control (a feeling that one has control over events that are in fact uncertain). Feedback • Misperception of chance fluctuation. • Attributing success to skill and failure to change. • Hindsight bias

Sources Nisbett and Ross 1980; Hogarth 1987. attained? What if readers could Are guidelines provided to help me assess have more than just a feeling (or be­ my current knowledge and skills? lief) that desired outcomes have been achieved? People differ in their repertoires of Another step in behavior change is self-change skills. For example, some identifying factors related to desired readers may know how to set clear outcomes. Let's say that a woman goals. Some may already know how reads a self-help book designed to to rearrange consequences related to increase enjoyable social contacts. changes of interest. To what extent Does it give guidelines that help her does a book help each reader to take to clearly understand why her current advantage of skills he or she already contacts are not satisfactory. Possible reasons include a lack of skills, a fear of negative evaluation, social anxiety, Will this book help me to select effective unrealistic expectations, poor self- self-change methods? management, and environmental obstacles. Errors often occur when The data gathered during assessment making judgments about the causes or "self-diagnosis" are used to plan of behavior. These include mistaking intervention programs. According to correlation for causation and over­ the extent to which data are informa­ looking environmental causes (Nisbett tive (reduce uncertainty about how to and Ross 1980). Other sources of attain valued outcomes) and assump­ error are noted in Table 2. tions about causes are sound, wise

Summer 1992 395 decisions are likely to be made. Inac­ be even more satisfied if their original curate data and assumptions may complaints were also removed. Does result in incorrect choices. a self-help book help readers to What self-management skills are identify clear, personally relevant required? There are two major kinds progress indicators, motivate readers of self-management. One involves the to track these on an ongoing basis, and rearrangement of antecedents related provide effective instructions about to behaviors of interest. This is known what to do depending on progress as stimulus control. For example, found? environmental stimuli that encourage unwanted behavior can be removed or Are the instructional formats used the most reduced in vividness, and those that likely to result in success? encourage desired behaviors can be increased. Stimulus control is used to A good deal of research is available achieve a wide variety of outcomes that has investigated the effectiveness (see, for example, Stuart 1977; Kanfer of different kinds of instructional and Schefft 1988; Meyer and Evans formats. This indicates that some are 1989; Watson and Tharp 1989). A more effective than others (Gagne second kind of self-management 1987). Instructional formats that involves rearrangement of conse­ include clear description of desired quences. Positive consequences are outcomes, intermediate steps, and provided for behaviors we would like entering repertoires (knowledge and to encourage, and punishing conse­ skills initially available) and use model quences are removed. Negative con­ presentation, coaching, and rehearsal sequences may be provided for are more likely to be effective com­ unwanted behaviors, and positive pared with programs that do not have consequences that usually follow such these characteristics. Successful self- behaviors may be withheld. help programs for anxiety reduction include a detailed manual and a Are guidelines for evaluating progress pro­ specially designed diary to record tasks vided? completed and progress made (see Marks 1987). Detailed instructions are Feedback about progress can help to given about how to: (l) identify target maintain change. Some desired out­ problems, (2) practice self-exposure to comes are clear: stopping smoking, for anxiety-provoking events, (3) keep example. Others are vague, such as records of tasks performed and track communicating better with others. reduction in anxiety in diaries, (4) What would people do if they did anticipate and deal with setbacks, and communicate better? It could be (5) involve significant others if argued that fuzzy goals have an feasible. advantage in that any positive change will be of value. For example, Zilber- Are motivational guidelines presented? geld (1983) points out that many people are glad they have seen a Although prescriptive advice offers counselor and feel better even though guidelines (which may be more or less they didn't get what they came for. clear) about what to do, it does not Perhaps this is the reason consumer provide the motivation to act on this satisfaction is so high in outpatient advice. For example, knowledge about mental-health agencies (Lebow 1983). helpful rules does not provide the However, perhaps these clients would motivation to act on these rules

396 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 (Hayes 1989; Skinner 1987). It would at relevant points to address obstacles be quite a different world if this were that may arise. the case. Not carrying out instruc­ tions is a common problem in self- Summing Up change programs (Rosen 1981). Review of self-exposure treatment for The popularity of self-help books can­ anxiety indicates that brief initial not be understood without a historical contact with a counselor is an impor­ understanding of the transforma­ tant motivator for some individuals tion of the term soul into mind and (Marks 1987). now into self. The self is thus almost Motivation is largely a matter of a holy concept, a reverential one. This arranging cues and contingencies of is one reason that efforts to point out reinforcement to support desired the limits of self-change and self- changes. A contingency is a relation­ managment are strenuously resisted ship between behavior and the envir­ even though they would increase onment. Smoking cigarettes may be understanding of real sources of influ­ followed by pleasurable feelings of ence and consequent potential to exert relaxation. Altering contingencies counter-control against unwanted involves rearranging the environ­ influences (e.g., Skinner 1971). Self- ment. Questions here are: (1) Are help books should take advantage of consequences of concern under a what is known about self-change. client's control? (2) Does the client Research that bears on self-change have the skills required to rearrange does not so much question the pos­ these? (3) Are there competing con­ sibility of self-change, but points to tingencies that will interfere with a different set of factors that will help success? and (4) Can these be removed in the attainment of desired outcomes. or muted? Many self-help books rely Limitations of self-help books on exhortation to motivate readers; include: inadequate or misleading that is, they encourage them to "do guidelines for self-assessment; lack of it." Exhortation is notoriously guidelines about how to monitor the ineffective. degree of compliance with programs and to increase compliance as needed; Are guidelines presented for generalizing and lack of guidelines for selecting and maintaining gains? intervention programs uniquely suited for each reader and for mon­ To what extent will new behaviors itoring progress. Few guidelines are occur in different situations? Will described for "troubleshooting" (what gains be durable? Generalization and to do if there is no progress/no maintenance are major problems in compliance, etc.). Few, if any, guide­ change programs—both self-help and lines are provided to encourage gener­ counselor-based (Marlatt and Gordon alization and maintenance. One of the 1985; Stokes and Osnes 1989). greatest deficiencies of self-help books is their ignoring environmental var­ Are troubleshooting guidelines included? iables that influence behavior and not providing guidelines to readers about Self-help books require readers to use how to alter the environment to material "on their own." Errors may achieve desired outcomes. occur at many points and may com­ Many people benefit from advocat­ promise hoped-for results. Trouble­ ing self-help as a panacea for physical shooting guidelines should be included and psychological maladies. Millions of

Summer 1992 397 dollars are made by publishing com­ Hayes, S. C. 1989. Rule-Governed Behavior: panies and bookstores each year from Cognitions, Contingencies, and Instructional Control. New York: Plenum. the sale of self-help books. Only if Hogarth, R. M. 1987. Judgement and Choice: earlier books are not successful in The Psychology of Decisions, 2nd ed. New fulfilling readers' goals will new books York: Wiley. be purchased that promise greater Kanfer, F. H„ and B. K. Schefft. 1988. success. The change process and the Guiding the Process of Therapeutic Change. Champaign, 111.: Research Press. factors related to it remain mystified Kayne, N. T., and L. B. Alloy. 1988. "Clinician as readers turn to the self-help book and Patient as Aberrant Actuaries: displays in search of the latest self- Expectation-Based Distortions in Assess­ help guide—this one is bound to work. ment of Covariation." In Social Cognition and Clinical Psychology: A Synthesis, edited by L. Y. Abramson. New York: References Guilford Press. Kivlighan, D. M., and R. M. Shapiro. 1987. Agran, M., and R. C. Martella. 1991. Holland type as a predictor of benefit "Teaching Self-instruction Skills to from self-help career counseling, journal Persons with Mental Retardation: A of Counseling Psychology, 34:326-329. Descriptive and Exploratory Analysis." In Knapp, J., and D. Delprato. 1980. Willpower, Progress in Behavior Modification, vol. 27, behavior therapy and the public. Psycho­ edited by M. Hersen, R. M. Eisler, and logical Record, 30:477-482. P. M. Miller. Newbury Park, Calif.: Sage. Lebow, J. 1983. Research assessing consumer Barrera, M., G. M. Rosen, and R. E. Glasgow. satisfaction with mental health treat­ 1981. "Rights, Risks and Responsibilities ment: A review of findings. Evaluation and in the Use of Self-help Psychotherapy." Program Planning, 6:211-236. In Preservation of Client Rights, edited by Mahalik, J. R., and D. M. Kivlighan. 1988. G. Hannah, W. Christian, and H. Clark. Self-help treatment for depression: Who New York: Free Press. succeeds? Journal of Counseling Psychol­ Barsky, A. J. 1988. Worried Sick: Our ogy, 35:237-242. Troubled Quest for Wellness. Boston: Marks, I. M. 1987. Fears, Phobias, and Rituals: Little, Brown. Panic, Anxiety, and Their Disorders. New Becvar, R. J. 1978. Self-help books: Some York: Oxford University Press. ethical questions. Personnel and Guidance Marlatt, G. A., and J. R. Gordon. 1985. Journal, 57:160-162. Relapse Prevention: Maintenance Strategies Bunge, M. 1984. What is pseudoscience? in the Treatment of Addiction. New York: SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, 9:36-47. Guilford. Carver, C. S., and M. F. Scheier. 1986. "Self Meyer, L. H., and I. M. Evans. 1989. and the Control of Behavior." In Percep­ Nonaversive Intervention for Behavior tions of Self in Emotional Disorder and Problems: A Manual for Home and Psychotherapy: Advances in the Study of Community. Baltimore, Md.: Paul H. Communication and Affect, vol. 11, edited Brooks. by L. Hartman and K. Blankstein. New Miller, D. T., and C. A. Porter. 1988. "Errors York: Plenum. and Biases in the Attribution Process." DeAngelis, T. 1991. Self-help books, no joke In Social Cognition and Clinical Psychology: in easing panic disorder. APA Monitor, A Synthesis, edited by L. Y. Abramson. 22(6):16. New York: Guilford. Doheny, K. 1988. Self-help. Los Angeles Miller, J. D. 1987. The scientifically illiterate. Times, October 2, Part VI, p. 1. American Demographics, 9:26-31. Furnham, A. F. 1987. Lay Theories: Everyday Morgan, R. F. 1983. The Iatrogenics Handbook. Understanding of Problems in the Social Toronto: IPI Publishers. Sciences. New York: Pergamon. Nisbett, L., and L. Ross. 1980. Human Gagne, P. M. 1987. Instructional Technology: Inference: Strategies and Shortcomings of Foundations. Hillsdale, N.J.: Erlbaum. Social Judgment. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Gambrill, E. D. 1990. Critical Thinking in Prentice Hall. Clinical Practice. San Francisco: Jossey- Peterson, L. 1983. "Failures in Self-control." Bass. In Failures in Behavior Therapy, edited by Ghesh, A., and E. M. Marks. 1987. Self- E. B. Foa and P. M. G. Emmelkamp. New treatment of agoraphobia by exposure. York: Wiley. Behavior Therapy, 18:3-16. Prochaska, J. O., C. C. DiClemente, W. F.

398 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 Velicer, S. Ginpil, and J. C. Norcross. Starker, S. 1988. Do-it-yourself therapy: The 1985. Predicting change in smoking prescription of self-help books by psy­ status for self-changers. Addictive Behav­ chologists. Psychotherapy, 25:142-146. iors, 10:395-406. . 1989. Oracle at the Supermarket: The Rosen. G. M. 1981. Guidelines for the review American Preoccupation with Self-help of do-it-yourself treatment books. Con­ Books. New Brunswick, N.J.: Transac­ temporary Psychology, 26:189-191. tions. . 1987. Self-help treatment books and Stokes, T. F., and P. G. Osnes. 1989. An the commercialization of psychotherapy. operant pursuit of generalization. Behav­ American Psychologist, 42:46-51. ior Therapy, 20:337-356. . 1990. "Psychology: Ability to Ad­ Stuart, R. B., ed. 1977. Behavioral Self- vance Self-care." Paper presented at the management. New York: Brunner/Mazel. 98th annual convention of the American Taylor, S. E., and J. D. Brown. 1988. Illusion Psychological Association, August 10. and well-being: A social psychological Rosenthal, H. G., and P. J. Yalem. 1985. perspective on mental health. Psycholog­ Suicide prevention information and self- ical Bulletin, 103:193-210. help books. Crisis Intervention, 14:122- Watson, D. L., and R. G. Tharp. 1989. Self- 131. directed Behavior: Self-modification for Schnelle, J. F. 1974. A brief report on Personal Adjustment, 5th ed. Monterey, invalidity of parent evaluations of behav­ Calif.: Brooks/Cole. ior change. Journal of Applied Behavior Weiss, R. 1969. The American Myth of Success: Analysis, 7:341-343. From Horatio Alger to Norman Vincent Scogin, F., J. Bynum, G. Stephens, and S. Peak. New York: Basic Books. Calhoon. 1990. Efficacy of self- Wyllie, I. G. 1954. The Self-made Man in administered treatment programs: Meta- America. New Brunswick, N.J.: Rutgers analytic review. Professional Psychology: University Press. Research and Practice, 21:42-47. Zilbergeld, B. 1983. The Shrinking of America: Silverman, K. 1986. Benjamin Franklin: The Myths of Psychological Change. Boston: Autobiography and Other Writings. New Little, Brown. York: Penguin. Skinner, B. F. 1953. Science and Human Eileen Gambrill is a professor in the Behavior. New York: Macmillan. Department of Social Welfare, University . 1971. Beyond Freedom and Dignity. New York: Knopf. of California, Berkeley 94720. She is . 1987. Upon Further Reflection. Engle- the author of Critical Thinking in wood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall. Clinical Practice.

Anybody Listening?

"I have only one redeeming thing to say. I'd rather listen to a president that listens to pollsters than to one that listens to astrologers."

—House Rules Chairman John Moakley, reacting January 29,1992, to President Bush's State of the Union speech the night before {Congress Daily, Jan. 29,1992)

Summer 1992 399 Ghost Lights Of Texas

HERBERT LINDEE

ike many other places, Texas has its share of reported ghost lights. The two best- Lknown ghost lights in the state are at Saratoga and at Marfa. We at the Houston Association for Scientific Thinking (HAST) have seen both and have found simple causes for both. Explanations offered for the Saratoga and Marfa A The Saratoga and can look impressive and mysterious. Here is what causes them.

lights have included luminescence from human ghosts, swamp gas, Satan, UFOs, campfires seen from far away, piezoelectricity, mirages caused by temperature inversion, St. Elmo's Fire, ball lightning, the 's reflection in pools, the glow from bat guano phosphates, and phosphorescence from mineral deposits. Although simple logic dictates that there may indeed be more than one source of energy that produces strangely visible luminescence, there is strong evidence that what most tourists take to be ghost lights outside of these Texas cities is a phenomenon of no more subtlety than car headlights seen along a highway quite a bit farther away than the distance one normally encounters when perceiving such objects. Saratoga is a small town in the East Texas

400 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 Sar

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\Zie\oiur) Site- about smiles from —HP

Map 1: Looking approximately south. (See Map 2, of dotted section.) Point C is a reference point. At point A. a car headed north comes over the rise. The lights then shine into the tunnel of trees formed along Bragg Road. Cars from B to A present a slight red glow with their taillights. piney woods, a part of the Big Thicket, growth of the trees above it and the an ecological treasure whose name thicket beside it create a tunnel of aptly describes its plant growth. Local vegetation as one peers down the legends claim the lights have been roadway in the darkness of night. At seen there since the times of the early night, if you travel five miles north Native Americans. Near Saratoga, into the tunnel and then look back, stretching seven miles across the you can see the lights from the cars forest floor, is Bragg Road, an arrow- as they round the curve on Highway straight former railroad bed about 787 (see diagram). To the naked eye, seven miles long. (See map.) The from such a great distance the two

Summer 1992 401 Map 2: Dotted section of Map 1. looking approximately west. At Position 1, the car's headlights do not enter the tunnel of trees along Bragg Road. At Position 2, the car's headlights are suddenly directed full force along Bragg Road. headlights appear to be one bright do something quite different. As the motionless spot in the middle of the car approaches, the headlights are first tunnel. The bright spot appears in the directed upward into the sky above the exact middle of the tunnel for a short tunnel of trees. When the car slips time, then suddenly disappears until over the rise, about 60 to 100 yards the light from another car takes its from Bragg Road, the headlights place. The duration of the pheno­ suddenly are directed into the tunnel menon varies with the speed of the harboring Bragg Road. The viewer is cars as they travel along 787. A time- rewarded with first a slight glow and exposure photo of the Saratoga light then a sudden dramatic burst of light can be seen on page 528 of the October instead of the slow buildup one might 1974 National Geographic. The actual expect along a stretch of straight experience is eerier than the photo. highway. The lights do not appear to The slight rise in Highway 787 as be the familiar lights of oncoming a northbound car reaches the point at traffic, so they are often interpreted which its lights shine into the tunnel as mysterious. of trees produces a startling effect that This is what most watchers see as contributes to the eeriness of the the Saratoga lights. We have been phenomenon. On a dark night along there four times. On all four occasions a straight highway, the light from an all participants saw the same thing approaching car expands from a small with the naked eye, first a glow then dot until the first car is close enough a bright spot in the middle of the for a person to observe two bright tunnel that appears suddenly, stays a lights. But cars traveling on 787 to the short time, then disappears just as tunnel of trees formed by Bragg Road suddenly. Looking through binoculars

402 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 or through a good terrestrial telescope collected plants till darkness, then unmasks the mystery, for then one drove home. We surmised this is more can see the single light separate into a winter phenomenon because the two car headlights. If the lights are heavy summer foliage filters out the exceptionally bright, one can even light. To check this out, John make out the license-plate holder on Chalmers, HAST's vice-president, and the front of the car. I journeyed to Saratoga on July 29, Those with better eyesight say 1991. The night was slightly hazy. We they can sometimes see a change of could see some stars, but it was not color in the light. This occurs if a car the clear night-sky background that traveling south toward Saratoga our groups had had on previous appears in the viewing window just expeditions. As we drove to Bragg as one traveling north, away from Road, car lights along Highway 105, Saratoga, exits the viewing window. which intersects with 787, looked The tail-lights of the southbound car fuzzy when they were far away. replace the image of the white lights We entered Bragg Road after dark of the northbound car. It is quite a and stopped to look back toward 787 remarkable exhibition even when the at one-mile intervals. After about two cause is well understood. miles the phenomenon became less Local residents seem willing to impressive. Something was filtering perpetuate this phenomenon as a out the light from the cars along 787. mystery, for it brings in a considerable By the time we were four miles in, amount of tourism throughout the we could only faintly see the lights year. To their credit, they do not lie that appeared at the end of the tunnel. when asked about the lights. They The difference between these lights either do not respond to questions, or and the ones seen in the winter was they say something like, "Who knows like the difference between the light what it might be?" from a very powerful flashlight and Another indicator of the true that from a small penlight. We believe nature of the lights is the protest the the cause of this dimming to be the town of Saratoga lodged a short time filtering effect of the leaves that now ago against the cutting of the trees covered the branches around the along the road for forest management. tunnel. It is also possible that the Any destruction of that tunnel of trees higher humidity of the summer might might hinder the ability of the light have some dimming effect on the to travel uncontaminated by other light. light sources along that five miles of We saw far fewer occurrences of dirt road directly to the viewer's eye. the lights than one does in winter. That would change the reputation of Two things could cause this. First, the Saratoga lights. darkness occurs much earlier in An interesting point arose on our winter than in summer. Second, our first visit when we talked to the young other visits were on weekend nights, man minding the local museum, one when people are out doing the things of the most interesting local museums they do on Friday or Saturday even­ in the state of Texas. He said he had ings. The traffic on a winter weekend never seen the lights because he had night at six o'clock would be expected been on Bragg Road only in the to be much heavier than that of a summer to collect plants, and the summer weekday night at nine lights seemed to be a winter phenom­ o'clock. enon. We assumed he meant he After our excursions to the Sara-

Summer 1992 403 toga lights, the Marfa lights in West came to a point on the inner rim of Texas promised to offer something the Chinati Mountains from which special. Persistent rumor claims that one can see the entire basin in which there is no roadway where the Marfa Marfa lies. There I waited until lights are seen. I visited Marfa during darkness fell. I could see car lights all spring break of 1991 and found, to my along the road to Marfa, except where great surprise, a highway running the bends and cuts obscured them, and north-south from Marfa to Presidio I could see the lights of Marfa itself exactly where the lights tend to be nestled at the end of this well-lit trail. seen. (See map.) The viewing site is I could also see the three different- on Highway 90 some nine miles east colored stationary lights we had seen of Marfa. Some people claim that at the viewing site, and I made a records of the Marfa lights go back mental note of their positions relative to the 1880s, when ranchers first to Highway 67 as I traveled it north reported seeing them. I visited the back to Marfa. viewing site three nights in a row. To get the straight-line distance Each night I stayed three hours, a total from these mountains to the viewing of nine hours of viewing time. On each point on Highway 90,1 measured the of those nights close to 50 other distance along Highway 67 to Marfa tourists appeared at one time or from the point on the inner rim. Using another to watch the lights. this distance (which was only approx­ The first night there was complete imately straight) with the distance agreement among those I talked to from Marfa to the viewing site, and that the lights we were seeing were slipping in a bit of Pythagoras, gave cars headed north from Presidio to a distance of about 30 miles from the Marfa on Highway 67. We would see viewing site to the place on the rim the headlights as they came to high where I waited for darkness. spots in the road and would see them At the viewing site I related the disappear as the road went behind a position of the stationary lights visible cut or into a valley. Because the there to the stationary lights I saw viewing distance is about 30 miles, no appearing and disappearing as I drove movement is seen, and not even good north along Highway 67. The posi­ binoculars can separate the single light tions of these lights were exactly we see with the naked eye into two where they should have been relative car headlights. Nightly one can also to where the stationary lights had see three quite clear stationary been on the trip northward along 67. lights—one red, one bluish-green, the The stationary lights that had been other a bright white—that are east of the highway and north of the unquestionably man-made, and these point on the rim where I waited were came into play the last day of the now both east and north of the lights investigation. we saw as the Marfa lights. The second night fewer viewers Reports of the Marfa lights are knew of the highway to Presidio, and more spectacular than those of the one or two maintained they were lights of Saratoga, and in truth the seeing magic lights. On the third day display at Marfa is more impressive. I decided to look at the lay of the land People at both places report sightings along Highway 67. I traveled in late whose accoutrements resemble those afternoon from Marfa into the Chi- associated with ball lightning, but ball nati Mountains to Shafter, some 40 lightning is something associated with miles up the road. I turned around and electrical storms and is not peculiar

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to either Marfa or Saratoga, so that ments in a random pattern could be it does not enter as anything special taken for just about anything from a to just those places. However, a ghost light to a UFO. careful look about the Marfa area The geography around Marfa produced some ideas about the Marfa enhances the feeling of mystery and lights that are pure speculation. the majesty of its lights. Our vision As I drove into the Chinati Moun­ sweeps across the basin to the moun­ tains toward dusk on the third day, tains miles away, and we see lights I noticed a small, dark-colored plane blinking on and off as cars slip circling the area near the mountains. between the open spaces into shelter­ This region is close to the border with ing cuts or valleys. The horizon is far Mexico, and the swooping plane away, and we feel the vastness of the evoked fantasies about smugglers or basin in which Marfa lies. The prosaic illegal immigrants. If the plane's lights stationary lights remind us that the were on at night they might be seen winking lights could be something as easily as those of a car along the much more ordinary than a simple road, and perhaps the plane's move­ human artifact. We must not forget

Summer 1992 405 that the entrancement of seeing the in either place. I think we some­ lights is not diminished by any realistic times forget that skepticism must be explanation of them. The experience open-ended. I do not think that is mildly mystical, and it is this that anyone will ever see at Marfa or at keeps the crowds coming again and Saratoga anything not explainable again. by natural or man-made causes, but A reminder that caution must be too many skeptics think the door is taken. Because what we saw for four shut when it should always be slightly nights in Saratoga and three nights ajar. in Marfa did not go out of the bounds of the ordinary does not mean that Herbert Lindee is president of the Houston the extraordinary has never occurred Association for Scientific Thinking.

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406 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 Book Reviews

Fallacies and Factors in New Age Thinking

Thinking Critically About New Age Ideas. By William D. Gray. Wadsworth Publishing Co., Belmont, Calif., 1991. 164 pp. Paper, $15.95.

MARK W. DURM

Critical thinking is the reasoning we do starting point and proceeds to relate in order to determine whether a claim is four basic principles of human lan­ true. This is a process we can do poorly guage: (1) language is a human prod­ or splendidly. Because our conclusions are uct; (2) whatever meaning a word has only as sound as our reasoning process, is due to the use that humans put it critical thinking is not a luxury but a to; (3) the meaning of a word is necessity if we are serious about discovering arbitrary; and (4) in order for there the truth. The clear advantage to studying critical thinking, then, is that we become to be symbolic communication better able to sort out fact from fiction. between people, there must be agree­ ment on the use of those symbols. he quotation above begins this The importance of these principles well-written and timely book by cannot be overemphasized when one TWilliam D. Gray. Gray began his realizes that "linguistic superstition" study of "New Age" phenomena because of the interest shown in them by his philosophy students at South­ western College. His concern grew as he realized his students accepted these ideas without any critical evaluation. (I, too, became concerned at the college I teach, for this very same reason. As a result, I initiated and now teach a course entitled "Skeptical Thinking.") Even though the book is concise, its intensity and breadth of topics is substantial. Yet it is written nontech- nically. Gray presupposes no special background from his reader and so the text is applicable in a wide variety of situations. The author uses "language" as his

Summer 1992 407 is used by many New Age proponents. paranormal phenomena—the Ber­ Linguistic superstition, as Gray des­ muda Triangle, precognition, time cribes, is when a word is treated as travel, and others. In so doing Gray if it has a power of its own, independ­ explains the Fallacy of Affirming a ent of human agency. Thus mantras, Logical Impossibility, the Fallacy of chants, magical words, and even new Demanding Proof of a Negative, and words are touted by New Age Hume's Scale (asking if a paranormal thinkers. Furthermore, Gray writes of event really occurred or if a human how the New Age thinkers deal in being has bent the facts). metaphysical terms. The paranormal- He lists three factors that contrib­ ists love to discuss such concepts as ute to belief in the paranormal: (1) a astral plane, another dimension, inward popular philosophy, (2) environmental journey, vibes, and others. This passion influences, and (3) psychological for "beyond the physical" terminology tendencies that promote fallacious is seen in many New Age publications. reasoning. Even though these paranormal The popular-philosophy concept "scientists" contend that they are centers around a number of beliefs searching for the "truth," they use that encourage adherence to the terms that cannot be empirically paranormal. Such beliefs as "Scientists tested. As Gray writes, "If no obser­ don't know everything," "There are vations can refute a statement, no things we just can't know," and "The observations can confirm it either." mind is a mysterious entity and we A powerful section of the book is do not know its limits" provide the entitled "Common ." Fallacy is basis for an easy acceptance of para­ defined as a defective argument in normal premises. which the premises do not support the The second factor, environmental conclusion. Gray lists several of these influences, is a very strong one due fallacies, of which a few are listed to the belief, as Gray writes, that they below using his examples: are largely outside our control. He lists the media, , and ignor­ Ad Hominem (attack the person). ance as examples. The media are quick Example: "James Randi says that to relate paranormal stories and is a . But only extraordinary claims because of the a fool would listen, because he's public's interest. We are excited about an atheist." the abnormal, not the normal. We hear and see reports of psychics, ghosts, Appeal to Ignorance. Example: and UFOs, just to name a few. How­ "Ghosts must exist at the Smurl ever, whenever the story turns out house in West Pittston, because to be a hoax, the media do not give skeptics have never proved that it as much attention. Misinformation they don't." is rampant in our society. We easily fall prey to myths because we lack Appeal to Authority. Example: critical-thinking skills. The myth that "Channeling is real, because we use only 10 percent of our brain Shirley MacLaine talks about is an excellent example. And, of her numerous experiences with course, ignorance—ignorance makes channeling in her book." us gullible because we are unaware of natural explanations of "supernatural The author skillfully, and in a very events." A perfect example of this is understandable way, confronts some firewalking, which can easily be

408 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 explained by just knowing a few ing knowledge. Pseudoscience, on the fundamental laws of physics. other hand, is not empirical, is vulner­ Many people succumb to psycho­ able to experimenter effects, is often logical tendencies, the third factor not testable or repeatable, ignores Gray lists for paranormal belief. The falsifying data, and is often incompat­ human tendency for enjoying exciting ible with existing knowledge. The two stories, thinking wishfully, having are simply not the same, much to the confidence in what we see and feel, chagrin of paranormalists. and making a causal connection where To sum up, Gray has written a very none exists makes for naivete, and readable and informative work. He naivete underscores credulity. teaches readers to recognize fallacies Gray concludes by explaining the and understand the tenets of true difference between science and pseu­ science. doscience and giving characteristics of each. Science is empirical and con­ Mark W. Durm is a professor of trolled and requires repeatability, test­ psychology at Athens State College, ability, and compatibility with exist­ Athens, Alabama.

Adventures of a Skeptical Detective

Ambrose Bierce Is Missing, And Other Historical Mysteries. By Joe Nickell. Lexington, Ky.: University Press of Kentucky, 1992. 180 pp. Cloth, $22.00.

ROBERT A. BAKER

or the skeptical investigator, Joe inquirer can solve just about any Nickell's latest work, Ambrose conundrum that comes up. Drawing FBierce Is Missing, is not only an interesting and useful distinction required reading but the quickest between "an investigation" and possible way to hone one's investig­ "research," Nickell notes: "While we ative skills. Into a relatively few pages 'research' the effects of smoking or the not only has Nickell managed to pack causes of economic growth, we 'inves­ the philosophy, strategy, and tactics tigate' a diversion of funds or a of scholarly research and scientific homicide. In short, the systematic investigation, but he also walks the seeking of knowledge is research, and reader, in step-by-step fashion, the attempt to solve a specific mystery through nine separate and diverse is an investigation." Then, beginning historical mysteries he has confronted with "The Mystery of the Nazca and solved. Lines," as an example of an ancient Citing Heinrich Schliemann's riddle, Nickell succinctly reviews how uncovering of the Mycenae culture as archaeologists go about their business one of the classic investigations of all of uncovering the past. He follows this time, Nickell goes on to show how, with eight additional case histories— by varying one's approach, the clever each an illustrative example of a

Summer 1992 409 particular investigative strategy. Swift successfully mined his silver Approaching the problem of the until illness, mutiny, and other Nazca lines from the point of view of dangers made him wall up his the Nazca artists and engineers, treasure-filled mine. When the fabled Nickell was able to reproduce, i.e., miner, now blind, returned some 15 duplicate, the giant condor drawing years later to recover his hoard, he using only sticks and cords in a was unable to find the mine. manner that the Nazcas probably Approaching this tale from a scientific used. There is no need to assume perspective, Nickell quickly discovered extraterrestrials were involved. If that: (l) silver exists only in trace they were, Nickell notes, "one can only amounts in eastern Kentucky; (2) a conclude that they seem to have used number of spurious Swift "journals" sticks and cord just as the Indians [and exist; (3) false documents and fake Nickell] did." Swift signatures, as well as fraudulent The title piece, "Ambrose Bierce Is genealogies, were also uncovered; and Missing," serves as a classic example (4) no evidence could be found that of how to deal with biographical this particular "Jonathan Swift" had enigmas. Citing Marchand's investiga­ ever existed. To put the final nail in tion of Byron, Griswold's and Quinn's the coffin lid, Nickell and his father study of Poe, and Goerner's attempt reconstructed Swift's map and fol­ to put Amelia Earhart in the hands lowed his directions across the Ken­ of the Japanese just before World War tucky terrain to nowhere. Over the II to illustrate various ways of con­ years this "fakelore" cost several fusing legend with fact, Nickell uses people their health and fortunes and a number of these approaches on the was also the direct cause of at least disappearance of Bierce. Bierce not one homicide. only created mysterious disappearan­ In the search for the lost silver mine ces in his stories but also became the a number of artifacts turned up that subject of one himself. When Nickell's the finders claimed must have analysis is finished, there is little doubt belonged to the great Daniel Boone about what happened to Bierce. Nick­ himself. As the years went by more ell's tracing of the various speculations and more Boone artifacts emerged— and his revealing of their shortcom­ rifles, knives, huts, carvings, and so ings is an exercise no dedicated on. With the help of John Fischer, skeptical student should miss. Nickell applied his detective skills to Looking at folklore and its origins, a number of these relics and cleverly Nickell studied the Eastern Kentucky exposed hoax after hoax. In similar legend of the fabled "lost silver mines" fashion, Nickell also examined a of one "Jonathan Swift." This tale is number of suspect documents and, an excellent example of "fakelore," i.e., over the years, has quietly built a falsification of folkloric data via himself a reputation as one of the "invention, selection, fabrication, and nation's few forgery experts. (Most of similar refining processes." Some of Nickell's work in this area appears in the world's great legends, e.g., Noah's his recent book Pen, Ink and Evidence Ark, Atlantis, and the Gilgamesh epic, [University Press of Kentucky, 1990].) fall into this category. Swift, sup­ Exactly how one uses one's investig­ posedly preceding Daniel Boone into ative skills to determine a document's the wilderness, made annual trips into authenticity is shown clearly in Chap­ Kentucky from Alexandria, Virginia, ter 7, Nickell's study of Lincoln's to mine silver. From 1760 to 1769 famous letter to Mrs. Bixby on the

410 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 "JOHN

BUFFALO, SWIFT'S LICK SILVER MINES'

| TO MINES | Worked by I FRENCHMEN Map reconstructed from purported journal description shows supposed location of John Swift's lost silver mines. (Drawing by author.) death of her sons. Here the issue "Investigators of whatever variety regarding the letter's authenticity is share a belief that mysteries invite unquestionably resolved. solution, that appropriate methods Other chapters include the inves­ can be an attainable goal, and that a tigation of lost textual material and changed—presumably better—view is missing editifir*nc r»r r»r\r»Vc the tracking the ultimate result" («. 155). down of lost, incomplete, biased, or Although Nickell calls these inves­ spurious resources and, of most tigations "historical" ones it is impor­ interest to skeptics familiar with the tant to remember that most—if not author's Inquest on the Shroud of Turin all—investigations are after-the-fact (Prometheus, 1987), a chapter sum­ and thus are "historical." This fact in marizing and updating the techniques no way diminishes the value of the used to establish that the famed methods and techniques for the Shroud is not the burial cloth of Jesus. skeptical investigator in search of In a short afterword, "Some Les­ solutions. Ambrose Bierce Is Missing is sons Learned," Nickell reviews other a clear, concise, highly readable and investigative techniques and metho­ entertaining addition to the skeptic's dologies and notes in conclusion: armamentarium. As a dogged, deter-

Summer 1992 411 mined, dedicated, and undaunted the realm of the hidden, the myste­ detective, Joe Nickell is, without a rious, the secret, the supernatural, and doubt, surpassed only by Sherlock the unknown will never end. Holmes, Sam Spade, Spenser, and the indefatigable Columbo. Let us hope Robert A. Baker is professor emeritus of his peeking, probing, and prying into psychology at the University of Kentucky.

Is the Big Bang a Bust?

The Big Bang Never Happened: A Startling Refutation of the Dominant Theory of the Origin of the Universe. By Eric Lerner, New York: Random House, 1991. 466 pp. Cloth, $21.95.

VICTOR J. STENGER

ormally the refutation of a scientific criticism: The big-bang dominant scientific theory conjecture is said to be invalidated by N takes place on the pages of a the data. Cosmologists have a theory, scientific journal. But strange things the big bang, that makes specific are happening in science these days, quantitative and qualitative predic­ as a Nobel laureate admits to publish­ tions that are tested against observa­ ing falsified data, great research tions. They claim success for a sig­ universities are accused of misspend­ nificant majority of these tests, far ing, and wacky claims like cold fusion exceeding all alternatives. The recent are announced by press conference. highly publicized results from the News magazines proclaim that science Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) is in trouble, so it must be so. The satellite provide further evidence for scientific establishment has been the validity of the big-bang model. smug and complacent for too long. It's While admitting that a detailed, satis­ high time it was pulled down from its factory explanation of several phe­ pedestal and told who's boss in a nomena, notably large-scale structure democratic society. formation, is yet to be provided, big- The big-bang theory is the stand­ bang cosmologists do not see this as ard framework within which most fatal. Lerner, however, argues that cosmologists operate, having assumed these deficiencies are so severe as to the same position held by evolution invalidate the whole notion of a for biologists and quantum mechanics universe finite in time and space. for physicists. Eric Lerner wishes to The big bang may be wrong, but pull down not only that framework Lerner can't seriously expect to prove but also what he perceives as the it in a popular book. The issue is hardly outdated mentality that built it. likely to be settled without the tech­ Lerner's case against the big bang nical detail, careful reasoning, and is composed of several different lines expert critical review of the conven­ of argument. The first is conventional tional scientific paper or monograph.

412 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 which this is not. Lerner attempts to a state of increasing order. The second go over the heads of cosmologists to law is simply wrong, or wrongfully the general public. Despite current interpreted. criticism of science, I see no sign that The curved space and black holes the public is demanding suffrage in the predicted by general relativity are determination of scientific truth. likewise not common experience, but The author does not limit himself the result of abstruse mathematics. to a scientific critique of big-bang Lerner says we should believe what cosmology, but has a larger agenda. our eyes tell us, not some fashionable His goal is to refute not just the big mathematical equation. bang but the very thought processes Finally, Lerner finds within this of conventional science as well. He cosmotheological conspiracy the argues that the hypothesis-testing source of most of the evils of society. procedure is a throwback to Plato- The slavery of the past and the nism, a product of theological rather continued authoritarianism of the than scientific thinking and antithetic present somehow arise from the idea to the essence of the scientific that the universe came into being at revolution. an explosive instant and is headed According to the author, the equa­ toward ultimate decay. He says the big tions used in big-bang calculations are bang is a convenient paradigm treated by the science elite as the employed by an unholy alliance ultimate reality of the universe—like between church and state to subjugate Plato's forms. Even after these equa­ humanity. In their view, the material tions are shown to disagree with world came from nothing and is next observational facts, as Lerner claims to nothing, transient and meaningless they have been, they are retained by in the face of the eternal, limitless big-bangers because of an irrational power of God. prejudice that the theory must be Lerner's alternative universe is correct regardless of the facts. Rather based on the matter-antimatter sym­ than discard the big-bang theory, metric plasma cosmology promoted cosmologists invent new unobserved for years by Nobel laureate Hannes phenomena, such as cosmic strings Alfven. Most conventional cosmolo­ and invisible dark matter, to "save the gists insist that plasma cosmology is phenomena." inconsistent with observational data. The big bang is promoted, in In particular, Alfven's universe is half Lerner's view, because science has matter and half antimatter; yet no sacrificed its soul to theology. The more than one part in a billion of theory confirms the theological notion antimatter is observed anywhere in of creation ex nihilo: The universe is the universe. finite, having a definite beginning, What arguments does Lerner use created with a fixed design, and to promote the plasma universe? gradually winding down under the Again they fall into the same classes inexorable effect of the second law of as his arguments against the big bang. thermodynamics. And they possess the same flaws he Lerner argues that this picture purports to find in conventional disintegrates on exposure to observed cosmological argument. facts, not just those gathered with While castigating big-bang cosmol­ telescopes but common experience as ogists for using hypothesis-testing, well. From everyday observations, the Lerner is not beyond claiming success­ universe is growing and evolving to ful tests of the hypotheses of plasma

Summer 1992 413 cosmology. While maligning big- the earth was round since he set foot bangers for inventing new ad-hoc in the Americas rather than the East entities, such as the dark matter, to Indies, where he had expected to land. "save the phenomena," he introduces Lerner also argues that the uni­ unobserved, invisible "filaments" verse must be much older than the throughout the universe to scatter the 15 to 20 billion years required by microwave background and make it standard big-bang theory. He claims isotropic as the data require. (The big that the large structures being bang requires nothing ad hoc here, observed by astronomers ". . . were and, in fact, predicted the microwave just too big to have formed in the background.) While he derides the twenty billion years since the Big mathematical equations of general Bang" (p. 23). While current cosmol­ relativity for being inferred from ogy has yet to accommodate these arguments of symmetry and elegance, structures, Lerner has not demon­ rather than directly from experiment, strated that it never will within the Lerner extols the marvels of Max­ big-bang framework. His calculation well's equations of electromagnet- is based on the lengths of the struc­ ism—also inferred as much from tures, the longest being somewhat less arguments of symmetry and elegance than a billion light-years. In fact, only as from observation. And while he their widths, tens or hundreds times criticizes the theological nature of smaller, need to be explained. In a 15- creation ex nihilo, he calls on the to 20-billion-year-old universe, ample equally mystical ideas of Teilhard de time exists to generate a structure a Chardin. billion light-years long and a hundred million light-years wide. We just do Has Eric Lerner punctured the big- not yet know the exact mechanism. bang balloon so that its collapse is at hand? I doubt it. The big-bang theory The fact is: No observation rules is in no more trouble than the theory out the big-bang theory at this time. of evolution. Creationists tried and And the big-bang theory is successful failed to invalidate evolution by in quantitatively explaining many trumpeting a few of the problems observations. For example, calcula­ biologists still argue over. Similarly, tions on the synthesis of light chemical Lerner tries and fails to invalidate the elements in the big bang give remark­ big bang by drawing attention to its able agreement with measured abun­ current unsolved problems, declaring dances. them fatal while ignoring the theory's Lerner uses the kinds of arguments many successes, unmatched by any one often hears in a public discourse alternative theory. on science, but rarely among profes­ The first successful test of the big sional scientists themselves. For bang occurred with the discovery of example, he argues that plasma cos­ the microwave background in 1964. mology is in closer agreement with Lerner dismisses this prediction, label­ everyday observation than big-bang ing it a failure because the measured cosmology, and hence is the more temperature of the radiation was sensible. A look through a telescope lower than predicted. But the impor­ reveals spirals and other structures tant result was that the radiation was similar to those observed in the plasma there at all. No other theory, including laboratory (and, as cosmologist Rocky plasma cosmology, foresaw this. Kolb has remarked, in your bathroom Lerner's argument is like someone toilet as well). Following Lerner's line saying that Columbus failed to prove of reasoning, we would conclude, as

414 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 people once did, that the earth is flat, that was a spontaneous quantum fluc­ that the sun goes around the earth, tuation, with structure and physical and that species are immutable. The laws developing by the purely material scientific revolution taught us to processes of self-organization. The question commonsense expectations. uncreated universe does not, as some Finally, I want to comment on people think, require a violation of the Lerner's connection of the big bang first or second law of thermodynam­ to the Judeo-Christian concept of ics, nor any other principle of physics. Creation. I agree with the author in Perhaps the big bang did not condemning the way the big bang has happen exactly as currently envisaged, been exploited by preachers, popes, but Lerner does not make much of a and some scientist-authors of popular case against it. In fact, a great deal books as providing an imagined link of what he discusses in his book, like between science and religion, and even cosmic plasma phenomena, is per­ a verification of the existence of a fectly consistent with the big bang. He Creator. We have seen this pheno­ could have used the same material had menon repeated as the recent COBE he decided to write "The Big Bang results are trumpeted by the media as Happened!" evidence for God's presence "shining through" in the design of the universe. (See also Martin Gardner's column in this These commentators do not under­ issue—EDJ stand that quite the opposite is the case. No support for creation by Victor ]. Stenger is professor of physics design can be found in the theory of and astronomy at the University of the big bang. Hawaii and the author of Not By Design: Complete quantum chaos must The Origin of the Universe (Prome­ have existed at an early moment of theus Books, 1988) and Physics and the big bang (the Planck Time, 10-43 Psychics: The Search for a World second). All we know about the uni­ Beyond the Senses (Prometheus Books, verse is consistent with a beginning 1990).

Holography, Hyperbole, and Hooey

The Holographic Universe. By Michael Talbot. HarperCollins, New York 1991. 338 pp. Cloth, $19.95; paper, $10.00.

ROBERT A. BAKER

According to the cover of Michael latest frontiers of physics, and the ^^X Talbot's latest excursion into unsolved riddles of brain and body." pseudoscience, his Holographic Unfortunately it does none of these Universe provides "a remarkable new things, since a mere analogy is neither theory of reality that explains: the a sufficient nor a satisfactory explan­ paranormal abilities of the mind; the ation, particularly for matters as

Summer 1992 415 complex as the mind, physics, the hologram is a three-dimensional brain, and even the paranormal. As photograph. Unlike conventional a whole, the book is simply incredible. photography, which uses light If the platypus is an animal that has reflected from an object and focuses to be seen to be believed, then Talbot it on a piece of film, holography uses is a writer who has to be read to be a split beam of light. One part of the disbelieved. beam—called a reference beam—goes As one of the paranormal's bright­ directly to the photographic plate, est and most indefatigable defenders, while the other part is reflected off Talbot has striven mightily over the the object being holographed. When past decade to place the supernatural the two beams intersect, they create on solid scientific ground. In doing so, an interference pattern that is he has created a new genre: pseudo- recorded on holographic film as a scientific fiction. His first contribution complex pattern of stripes and whirls, to the genre was Mysticism and the New much like the intersection of wave Physics (1980), in which he attempted patterns created when two stones are to unify subjective and objective dropped simultaneously into a still reality with Eastern mysticism. This pond. Once developed, the hologram was followed a few years later by bears no visible resemblance to the Beyond the Quantum (1986) and then subject—in fact it seems almost trans­ by Your Past Lives: A Reincarnation parent. Yet when a reference beam is Handbook (reviewed in SI, Winter shown through the hologram, the 1992). Undeterred by his misinterpre­ interference pattern acts like a grat­ tation and misapplication of quantum ing, bending the light via diffraction theory and hypnosis, Talbot has now and re-creating an image of the tackled holography and Bohm's "impli­ original in three dimensions. Making cate order" and thrown both for a a hologram requires coherent light, substantial loss. i.e., light of the same color and wave­ length, like one obtained from a laser In Talbot's hands the trivial be­ beam. comes titanic and the mundane mirac­ ulous. A master of hyperbole, he piles According to Talbot, "The most exaggeration upon exaggeration. staggering thing about the holograph­ Talbot is able to see significant and ic model was that it suddenly made causal connections between the most sense of a wide range of phenomena random and chaotic of disparate so elusive they generally have been things and events. Zeroing in on the categorized outside the province of speculations of London physicist scientific understanding. These and Stanford neurophys- include telepathy, precognition, mys­ iologist Karl Pribram that the universe tical feelings of oneness with the is a hologram, Talbot outspeculates universe, and even psychokinesis, or both of them by taking their surmises the ability of the mind to move boldly where no man has gone before physical objects without anyone or will ever go. In the hologram Talbot touching them" (p. 2). This starts sees the answer to every human Talbot's ball rolling and he barrels mystery, problem, and puzzle our ahead to tell us that holography does species has ever encountered. much more. It helps explain "virtually Dennis Gabor, the Hungarian- all paranormal and mystical experien­ born British physicist, invented holo­ ces," even the unusual near-death graphy in 1947 and later won a Nobel experiences, which are a "mere shift­ prize for his work. Simply put, a ing of a person's consciousness from

416 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 one level of the hologram of reality to another." Archetypal experiences, encounters with the collective uncons­ cious, and all other unusual pheno­ mena experienced during altered states of consciousness are, similarly, understood. So even are lucid dreams, which, Talbot writes, are "actually visits to parallel realities, and the holographic model will ultimately allow us to develop a 'physics of consciousness' which will enable us to explore more fully these other dimen­ sional levels of existence." As for Jung's , or unusal coincidences, these are nothing more than "flaws in the fabric of reality." Hyperburbling along, Talbot reins himself in slightly, after a time, to mention that many of his ideas— including the holographic model itself—are "highly controversial and by no means accepted by a majority prejudice-free." For this extraordinary of scientists." Then, in an extraordi­ discovery Talbot's authority is none nary burst of candor, Talbot admits: other than the physician-cum- "One final piece of evidence in favor dimestore-philosopher Bernie Siegel, of the holographic model is the para­ who sagely remarks that "people are normal itself. . . . Because paranormal addicted to their beliefs, which is why events cannot be accounted for by our when you try to change their beliefs current scientific understandings, they act like an addict." Nothing could they cry out for a new way of looking be truer of Talbot and his addiction at the universe, a new scientific to the supernatural, because he next paradigm. In addition to showing how confesses, "I grew up in a psychic the holographic model can account for family." the paranormal, the book will also While heredity may well explain examine how mounting evidence in Talbot's addiction to all things occult, favor of the paranormal in turn it fails to account for his extraordinary actually seems to necessitate the imagination and his incredible skill in evidence of such a model." Lifting explaining mystery after mystery in himself by his own bootstraps Talbot terms of other, even more mysterious then tells us: "The fact that the and strange concepts. Using Pribram's paranormal cannot be explained by idea that the brain may work like a our current scientific worldview is hologram to create three-dimensional only one of the reasons it remains so images in our heads and Bohm's idea controversial. Another is that psychic that there is another level of reality functioning is often very hard to pin enfolded beneath the physical reality down in the lab, and this has caused of our everyday perceptions, Talbot many scientists to conclude it there­ unhesitatingly states that not only is fore does not exist." And Talbot the brain a hologram but that the astutely observes, "Science is not entire cosmos is also a hologram! From

Summer 1992 417 these premises stupendous corollaries personality disorder is nothing more ensue: "The past is a hologram and than a shift from one holographic self is not lost, but still exists in some form to another! There is no difference accessible to human perception ... and between the mental and physical the human mind and the holographic worlds, and the body is also holo­ record of the past already exist in the graphic. By simply recognizing the same domain [and] are, in a manner unbroken wholeness of things, Talbot of speaking, already neighbors. Thus, says, we can cure our illnesses and get a shift in the focus of one's attention well. For example, merely keeping a may be all that is needed to access the diary of one's headaches forces them past." For Talbot, this explains both to go away. Placebos work because the clairvoyance and hauntings. Since the mind/body is unable to distinguish past is holographically "recorded in the between an imagined reality and the cosmic airwaves and can occasionally real one. To cure ourselves, all we be plucked out by the human mind have to do is "harness the powers of and converted into holograms," some the holographic brain." Since the gifted psychics learn to "tap into this mind/body ultimately cannot distin­ dazzling and infinite treasure-trove" guish between the neural holograms within the "shimmering holographic the brain uses to experience reality record of the past." Moreover, accord­ and the ones it conjures up when it ing to Talbot, "As disconcerting as is imagining reality, we are all sha­ having access to the entire past is, it mans, wonder workers, and yogin. pales beside the notion that the future Toward the middle of this extrav­ is also accessible in the cosmic holo­ aganza, after Talbot is really warmed gram" (p. 205). Talbot then adds, up, we encounter such doozies as the "Every cell in our body enfolds the following: "The laws of physics are entire cosmos" and "our brains even habits. Matter is a kind of habit." All construct space and time inside our —e.g., the blood of Saint heads." Januarius, , levitations, The holographic paradigm, Talbot , miraculous healings, and believes, also solves all of psychology's such—are due to psychokinesis (PK), problems because there are unexplain- and PK is due to the fact that "reality able linkages between the conscious­ is in a very large part a construct of nesses of two or more individuals. the imagination." Talbot then asks, This explains ESP. As for psychoses, "Does consciousness create subatomic Talbot says psychotics are also able to particles?" He answers, "Of course." experience certain aspects of the As far as things paranormal are holographic level of reality; and concerned Talbot is very systematic, occasionally, when there are losses of and no paranormal theme or event is boundaries, they can read the neglected. All things are possible thoughts of others; and sometimes because there are "an infinite number they experience the implicate order— of potential realities." Sai Baba, their internal reality—directly. All Swedenborg, , auras, Sham­ illogical thinking is of the implicate anism, Castenada, , psy­ order. Dreams are all internal holo­ chic archaeology, reincarnation, grams, and lucid dreams (and perhaps remote viewing, out-of-body expe­ all dreams) are actually visits to riences, near-death experiences, any­ parallel universes! Multiple personal­ thing and everything is easily ities are due to the fact that the "self explained. Even UFOs. According to is a hologram." Thus the multiple- Talbot, "There is evidence that some

418 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 UFOs may also be some kind of In his haste to connect everything hologramlike phenomena. ... It has with everything else, however, Talbot become increasingly apparent they are fails to heed the wisdom of others who not extraterrestrial in origin." have also looked at the physics of Talbot's ultimate objective be­ mysticism and the holographic comes clear when we encounter in the paradigm. final chapter of this tome his plea for A decade ago Ken Wilber noted, "a basic restructuring of science." "The statement that: 'the world views Since present-day science will not of physics and mysticism are similar' tolerate such ideas, we should reframe is a wild overgeneralization and is and restructure our science so that it based, as one physicist recently put it, can accept and incorporate them! In 'on the use of accidental similarities other words, if the shoe doesn't fit— of language as if these were somehow modify the foot. In Talbot's world, evidence of deeply rooted connections. fantasy is not the problem—it's real­ Further, physics and mysticism are ity. Science's biggest problem, accord­ not two different levels of reality" ing to Talbot, is its domineering (Wilber 1982: 166). Wilber supports attitude. The poor paranormal this by noting that many mystically researchers, it seems, are so afraid of or transpersonally oriented research­ ridicule nowadays they simply refuse ers have already totally rejected the to come forward with their astound­ holographic paradigm. ing discoveries. In Talbot's words, Moreover, many physicists are ". . . It appears that fear of ridicule "furious with the 'mystical' use to may be as much if not more of a which particle physics is being sub­ stumbling block as disbelief in getting jected." Characteristic is John Wheel­ the scientific establishment to begin er's branding of the recent attempts to treat psychic research with the to link physics and mysticism as seriousness it deserves." "moonshine," "pathological science," One cannot get too upset with and "charlatanism." Wheeler also these excursions into the further wrote: "In the quantum theory of reaches of the human imagination observation, my own present field of because it is very, very difficult—if not endeavor, I find honest work almost impossible—to take them seriously. overwhelmed by the buzz of abso­ Talbot apparently consults psychic lutely crazy ideas being put forth with practitioners in caring for his health. the aim of establishing a link between On page 284, he confesses: ". . . In quantum mechanics and parapsychol­ a holographic universe we can no ogy" (Wheeler 1979). longer view consciousness as confined But the most important message solely to the brain. The fact that Carol that Talbot has missed lies in Wilber's Dryer was able to communicate with closing comments about the holo­ my spleen and tell me it was upset graphic paradigm: because I had yelled at it indicates that other organs in our body also possess The work of these scientists— their own unique forms of mentality." Bohm, Pribram, Wheeler and all— is too important to be weighed down It is clear from the outset that with wild speculations on mysti­ Talbot wishes to be taken seriously cism. And mysticism itself is too and hopes to become the premier psi- profound to be hitched to phases of scientist of his generation, outdoing scientific theorizing. Let them Fritjof Capra, Gary Zukav, Lyall appreciate each other, and let their Watson, Fred Alan Wolf, and others. dialogue and mutual exchange of

Summer 1992 419 ideas never cease. But unwarranted sort of an engagement. To preserve and premature marriages usually the public tranquility and the domestic end in divorce, and all too often a health of both families, it is strongly divorce that terribly damages both recommended that Talbot's talk of an parties. (Wilber 1982: p. 185) impending betrothal between science and mysticism be taken for exactly In keeping with Wilber's recom­ what it is: idle gossip and silly prattle. mendations it should be clear that Talbot's attempt to play matchmaker between science and mysticism is ill- References conceived, poorly executed, and ill- timed. Not only do the two parties' Wheeler, John A. 1979. Point of View: Drive philosophies and living styles clash, the pseudos out. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, but neither has expressed a desire to 4(1): 12-13. Wilber, Kenneth. 1982. The Holographic see each other socially or even in Paradigm and Other Paradoxes. Boulder, private, much less to enter into any Colo., and London: Shambala.

You'll now find regular columns, such as "Inside CSICOP," "Who's Who in Skeptical Briefs CSICOP?" "Beyond Belief" by Tom Flynn, CSICOP's 15th Anniversary and "Barrett's Corner" by , co-chairman of CSICOP's Paranormal Health Claims Subcommittee, and news and views not often found in the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. (Published quarterly, in Febru­ ary, May, August, and November.)

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420 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 New Books E ?A-; -'v m.'A -' • • •.-••;•• |

Dubious Dental Care. John E. Dodes, profitable business." Includes discus­ D.D.S. American Council on Science sions of the "science of things that and Health, 1995 Broadway, New aren't so," law and pseudoscience, York, NY 10023, 1991. 12 pp. $3.85, cashing in on magical cures, "chem­ paper. Booklet on dental health fraud, icals cause everything," clinical ecol­ estimated to cost American consu­ ogy, and the legal pursuit of fad mers one billion dollars a year. Deals terrors. with genuine vs. dubious credentials, controversial treatment methods, and Immortality. Edited by Paul Edwards. blatant . Macmillan, New York, 1992. 337 pp., $11.00, paper. Philosophical writings Galileo's Revenge: in the from Plato to modern thinkers about Courtroom. Peter W. Huber. Basic immortality, the mind-body problem, Books/HarperCollins, 1991. 274 pp., and the nature of personal identity. $23.00, cloth. Important and timely Attempts to do justice to all view­ work examines the increasing and points and arguments. Includes exten­ disturbing prevalence of the courts' sive coverage of reincarnation, which allowing maverick scientists, eccentric "has become extremely fashionable theories, and batteries of meaningless and is accepted or sympathetically high-tech tests to determine the considered by a great many people outcome of legal cases. "Courts who are totally unaware of the case resound with elaborate, systematic, on the other side." jargon-filled, serious-sounding decep­ tions that fully deserve the contemp­ Logic and Contemporary Rhetoric: tuous label used by trial lawyers The Use of Reason in Everyday Life. themselves: junk science. Junk science Howard Kahane, 6th edition. Wads- is the mirror image of real science, worth Publishing Co., Belmont, CA with much the same form but none 94002, 1992. 350 pp., $27.00, paper. of the same substance." The rules of Classic work is aimed at helping evidence now allow "almost any self- students improve their ability to styled scientist, no matter how reason well about everyday problems strange or iconoclastic his views" to and issues—and to do so in an inter­ testify in liability cases. Many highly esting way. This latest edition updates publicized cases have been determined examples, exercises, illustrations, and this way, resulting in astronomical information sources, adds a section on judgments, bankrupted companies, the pull of pseudoscience, and revises and doctors being driven out of discussion of doublespeak and sexism business. "Among all the many refrac­ in language. tory problems of our modern liability system, junk science is the most The Science Gap: Dispelling Myths insidious and the least noted," says and Understanding the Reality of Huber. "Scientific humbuggery in court has become an immensely Science. Milton Rothman. Prome­ theus Books, Buffalo, N.Y., 1992. 254

Summer 1992 421 Fill in the gaps in your SKEPTICAL collection ^S%dl5s

SPRING 1992 (vol. 16, no. 3): Special Report: The Technique: Treatment or torture, Worrall. The spooks Maharishi caper: JAMA hoodwinked, Skolnick. Myths of of quantum mechanics, Stenger. Science and Sir William subliminal persuasion: The cargo-cult science of sublim­ Crookes, Hoffmaster. The 'N' machine, Cumming. Biological inal persuasion, Pralkanis; Subliminal perception: Facts and cycles and rhythms vs. biorhythms, Wheeler. The fallacies, Moore; Subliminal tapes, Phelps and Exum. The Avro mysterious finger-lift levitation, Gardner. 1990 CSICOP VZ-9 'flying saucer,' Blake. Two 19th-century skeptics: Conference. Augustus de Morgan and John Fiske, Rothman. The sad SUMMER 1990 (vol. 14, no. 4): Ghosts make news: How story of Professor Haldane, Martin Gardner. four newspapers report psychic phenomena, Klare. WINTER 1992 (vol. 16, no. 2): On being sued: The chilliing Thinking critically and creatively, Wade and Tavris. Police of freedom of expression, Kurtz. The crop-circle pheno­ pursuit of satanic crime, Part 2, Hicks. Order out of chaos menon, Nickell and Fischer. Update on the 'Mars effect,' in survival research, Berger. Piltdown, paradigms, and the Ertel. A dissenting note on Ertel's 'Update,' Kurtz. Magic paranormal, Feder. Auras: Searching for the light, Loftin. Melanin: Spreading scientific illiteracy among minorities, Biorhythms and the timing of death, Lester. Relativism Part 2, de Montellano.Adventure s in science and cyclosophy, in science, Gardner. de Jager. Searching for security in the mystical, Grimmer. SPRING 1990 (vol. 14, no. 3): Why we need to understand Probability paradoxes, Gardner. science, Sagan. The crisis in pre-college science and math FALL 1991 (vol. 16, no. 1): Near-death experiences, education, Seaborg. Police pursuit of satanic crime, Part Blackmore. Multicultural pseudoscience: Spreading scien­ 1, Hicks. The spread of satanic-cult rumors, Victor. Lying tific illiteracy, Part 1, de Montellano. Science and common- about tests, Shneour. Worldwide disasters and sense skepticism, Aach. Spook Hill, Wilder. Lucian and moon phase, Kelly, Saklofske, and Culver. St. George and Alexander, Rowe. 1991 CSICOP conference, Shore and the dragon of , Gardner. Frazier. Reeder feedback from Urantia to Titanic, Gardner. WINTER 1990 (vol. 14, no. 2): The new catastrophism, SUMMER 1991 (vol. 15, no. 4): Lucid dreams, Blackmore. Morrison and Chapman. A field guide to critical thinking, Nature faking in the humanities, Gallo. Carrying the war Lett. Cold fusion: A case history in 'wishful science'? into the never-never land of psi: Part 2, Gill. Coincidences, Rothman. The airship hysteria of 1896-97, Bartholomew. Paulas. Locating invisible buildings, Plummer. True Newspaper editors and the creation-evolution controv­ believers, Bower. Cal Thomas, the big bang, and Forrest ersy, Zimmerman. Special report: New evidence of MJ-12 Mims, Gardner. hoax, Klass. The great Urantia mystery, Gardner. SPRING 1991 (vol. 15, no. 3): Special report: Hi-fi FALL 1989 (vol. 14, no. 1): Myths about science, Rothman. pseudoscience, Davis. Searching for extraterrestrial The relativity of wrong, Asimov. Richard Feynman on intelligence: An interview with Thomas R. McDonough. . Luis Alvarez and the explorer's quest, Getting smart about getting smarts, Faulkes. Carrying the Muller. The two cultures, Jones. The 'top-secret UFO war into the never-never land of psi: Part 1, Gill. Satanic papers' NSA won't release, Klass. The metaphysics of cult 'survivor' stories, Victor. 'Old-solved mysteries': The Murphy's Law, Price. The Unicorn at large, Gardner. Kecksburg incident, Young. Penn & Teller, the magical SUMMER 1989 (vol. 13, no. 4): The New Age—An iconoclasts, Gordon. Magic, medicine, and metaphysics in Examination: The New Age in perspective, Kurtz. A New Nigeria, Roder. What's wrong with science education? Age reflection in the magic mirror of science, O'Hara. Look at the family. Eve. Three curious research projects, The New Age: The need for myth in an age of science, Gardner. Schultz. Channeling, Alcock. The psychology of channeling. WINTER 1991 (vol. 15, no. 2): Special report / Gallup Reed, 'Entities' in the linguistic minefield, Thomason. poll: Belief in paranormal phenomena, Gallup and Newport. Crystals, Lawrence. Consumer culture and the New Age, Science and self-government, Piel. West Bank collective Rosen. The Shirley MacLaine phenomenon, Gordon. Special hysteria episode, Stewart. Acceptance of personality test report: California court jails psychic surgeon, Brenneman. results, Thiriart. Belief in astrology: A test of the Barnum SPRING 1989 (vol. 13, no. 3): High school biology effect, French, Fowler, McCarthy, and Peers. A test of teachers and pseudoscientific belief. Eve and Dunn. Evidence clairvoyance using signal-detection, McKelvie and Gagne. for Bigfoot? Dennett. Alleged pore structure in Sasquatch Intercessory prayer as medical treatment? Wittmer and footprints, Freeland and Rowe. The lore of levitation. Stein. Zimmerman. Tipler's Omega Point theory, Martin Gardner. Levitation 'miracles' in India, Premanand. Science, FALL 1990 (vol. 15, no. 1): Neural Organization pseudoscience, and the cloth of Turin, Nickell. Rather than (continued on next page) just debunking, encourage people to think, Seckel. MJ-12 the Supreme Court, Seckel, with statements by Ayala, papers 'authenticated'? Klass. A patently false patent myth, Gould, and Gell-Mann. The great East Coast UFO of August Sass. 1986, Oberg. Does astrology need to be true? Part 1, Dean. WINTER 1989 (vol. 13, no. 2): Special report: The Homing abilities of bees, cats, and people, Randi. The EPR 'remembering water' controversy, Gardner and Randi; paradox and , Gardner. Followups: On Bibliographic guide to the 'dilution controversy.' fringe literature, Bauer; on Martin Gardner and Daniel Pathologies of science, precognition, and modern Home, Beloff. psychophysics, Jensen. A reaction-time test of ESP and FALL 1986 (vol. 11, no1.1): The path ahead: Opportunities, precognition. Hints and Dennison. Chinese psychic's pill- challenges, and an expanded view, Frazier. Exposing the bottle demonstration, Wu Xiaoping. The Kirlian technique, faith-healers, Steiner. Was Antarctica mapped by the Watkins and Bickel. Certainty and proof in creationist ancients? Jolly. Folk remedies and human belief-systems, thought, Leferriere. Reuter. Dentistry and pseudoscience, Dodes. Atmospheric FALL 1988 (vol. 13, no. 1): Special report: Astrology and electricity, ions, and pseudoscience, Dolezalek. Noah's ark the presidency, Kurtz and Bob. Improving Human and , Harrold and Eve. The Woodbridge Performance: What about parapsychology? Frazier. The UFO incident, Ridpath. How to bust a ghost, Baker. The China syndrome: Further reflections on the paranormal unorthodox conjectures of Tommy Gold, Gardner. in China, Kurtz. Backward masking, McIver. The validity SUMMER 1986 (vol. 10, no. 4): Occam's razor, Shneour. of graphological analysis, Furnham. The intellectual revolt Clever Hans redivivus, Sebeok. Parapsychology miracles, against science. Grove. Reich the rainmaker, Gardner. and repeatability. Flew. The Condon UFO study, Klass. SUMMER 1988 (vol. 12, no. 4): Testing psi claims Four decades of fringe literature, Dutch. Some remote- in China, Kurtz. Alcock, Frazier, Kan, Klass, and Randi. The viewing recollections, Weinberg. Science, mysteries, and appeal of the occult: Some thoughts on history, religion, the quest for evidence, Gardner. and science, Stevens. Hypnosis and reincarnation, Venn. SPRING 1986 (vol. 10, no. 3): The perennial fringe, Pitfalls of perception, Wheeler. Wegener and pseudos­ Asimov. The uses of credulity, de Camp. Night walkers and cience: Some misconceptions, Edelman. An investigation mystery mongers, Sagan. CSICOP after ten years, Kurtz. of psychic crime-busting, Emery. High-flying health quackery, Crash of the crashed-saucers claim, Klass. A study of the Hints. The bar-code beast, Keith. Occam's Razor and the Kirlian effect, Watkins and Bickel. Ancient tales and space- nutshell earth, Gardner. age myths of creationist evangelism, Mclver. Creationism's SPRING 1988 (vol. 12, no. 3): Neuropathology and the debt to George McCready Price, Gardner. legacy of spiritual possession, Beyerstein. Varieties of alien WINTER 1985-86 (vol. 10, no. 2): The moon was full experience, El/is. Alien-abduction claims and standards of and nothing happened, Kelly, Rotton, and Culver. Psychic inquiry (excerpts from Milton Rosenberg's radio talk- studies: The Soviet dilemma, Ebon. The psychopathology show with guests Charles Gruder, Martin Orne, and of fringe medicine, Sabbagh. Computers and rational Budd Hopkins). The MJ-12 Papers: Part 2, Klass. Dooms­ thought, Spangenburg and Moser. Psi researchers' inatten­ day: The May 2000 prediction, Meeus. My visit to the tion to conjuring, Gardner. Nevada Clinic, Barrett. Morphic resonance in silicon chips, FALL 1985 (vol. 10, no. 1): Investigations of firewalking, Varela and Letelier. Abigail's anomalous apparition, Durm. Leikind and McCarthy. Firewalking: reality or illusion, The riddle of the Colorado ghost lights, Bunch and While. Dennett. Myth of alpha consciousness, Beyerstein. Spirit- The obligation to disclose fraud, Gardner. rapping unmasked, V. Bullough. The Saguaro incident, WINTER 1987-88 (vol. 12, no. 2): The MJ-12 papers: Part Taylor and Dennett. The great stone face, Gardner. I, Philip ]. Klass. The aliens among us: Hypnotic regression SUMMER 1985 (vol. 9, no. 4): Guardian astrology study, revisited, Baker. The brain and consciousness: Implications Dean, Kelly, Rotton, and Saklofske. Astrology and the commod­ for psi, Beyerstein. Past-life hypnotic regression, Spanos. ity market, Rotton. The hundredth monkey phenomenon, Fantasizing under hypnosis, Reveen. The verdict on Amundson. Responsibilities of the media, Kurtz. 'Lucy' out creationism, Gould. Irving Kristol and the facts of life, of context, Albert. The debunking club, Gardner. Gardner. SPRING 1985 (vol. 9, no. 3): Columbus : I, FALL 1987 (vol. 12, no. 1): The burden of skepticism, Randi. Moon and murder in Cleveland, Sanduleak. Image Sagan. Is there intelligent life on Earth? Kurtz. Medical of Guadalupe, Nickell and Fischer. Radar UFOs, Klass. Phren­ Controversies: , Jarvis; Homeopathy, Barrett, ology, McCoy. Deception by patients, Pankralz. Commun­ M.D.; Alternative therapies, Jones: Quackery, Pepper. ication in nature, Orstan. Relevance of belief systems, Catching Geller in the act, Emery. The third eye, Gardner. Gardner. Special Report: CSICOP's 1987 conference. WINTER 1984-85 (vol. 9, no. 2): The muddled 'Mind Race,' SUMMER 1987 (vol. 11, no. 4): Incredible cremations: Hyman. Searches for the Loch Ness monster, Razdan and Investigating combustion deaths, Nickell and Fischer. Kielar. Final interview with Milbourne Christopher, Subliminal deception. Creed. Past tongues remembered? Dennett. Retest of astrologer John McCall, lanna and Tol- Thomason. Is the universe improbable? Shotwell. Psychics, bert. 'Mind Race,' Gardner. computers, and psychic computers, Easton. Pseudoscience FALL 1984 (vol. 9, no. 1): Quantum theory and the and children's fantasies, Evans. Thoughts on science and paranormal. Shore. What is pseudoscience? Bunge. The new superstrings, Gardner. Special Reports: JAL pilot's UFO philosophy of science and the 'paranormal,' Toulmin. An report, Klass; Unmasking psychic Jason Michaels, Busch. eye-opening double encounter, Martin. Similarities SPRING 1987 (vol. 11, no. 3): The elusive open mind: between identical twins and between unrelated people, Ten years of negative research in parapsychology, Wyatt el al. Effectiveness of a reading program on Blackmore. Does astrology need to be true? Part 2: The paranormal belief, Woods, Pseudoscientific beliefs of 6th- answer is no, Dean. Magic, science, and metascience: Some graders, A. S. and S. J. Adelman. Koestler money down notes on perception, D. Sagan. Velikovsky's interpretation the psi-drain, Gardner. of the evidence offered by China, LB. Anomalies of Chip SUMMER 1984 (vol. 8, no. 4): Parapsychology's past eight Arp, Gardner. years, Alcock. The evidence for ESP, C. £. M. Hansel. WINTER 1986-87 (vol. 11, no. 2): Case study of West $110,000 dowsing challenge, Randi. Sir Oliver Lodge and Pittston 'haunted' house, Kurtz. Science, creationism and the spiritualists, Hoffmasler. Misperception, folk belief, and the occult, Connor. Psychology and UFOs, Simon. Freud and Fliess, Gardner. SPRING 1984 (vol. 8, no. 3): Belief in the paranormal worldwide: Mexico, Mendez-Acosla; Netherlands, Hoebens; U.K., Hutchinson; Australia, Smith; Canada, Gordon; France, Route. Debunking, neutrality, and skepticism in science, Kuril. University course reduces paranormal belief, Gray. The Gribbin effect, Roder. Proving negatives, Pasquarello. MacLaine, McTaggart, and McPherson, Gardner. WINTER 1983-84 (vol. 8, no. 2): Sense and nonsense in parapsychology, Hoebens. Magicians, scientists, and psy­ chics, Ganoe and Kirwan. New dowsing experiment, Martin. study, Mechler, McDaniel, and Mulloy. Science and the The effect of TM on weather, Trumpy. The haunting of mountain peak, Asimov. the Ivan Vassilli, Sheaffer. Venus and Velikovsky, Forrest. FALL 1980 (vol. 5, no. 1): The Velikovsky affair — articles Magicians in the psi lab, Gardner. by Oberg, Bauer, Frazier. Academia and the occult, Gr«n- FALL 1983 (vol. 8, no. 1): Creationist pseudoscience, well. Belief in ESP among psychologists, Padgett, Benassi, Schadewald. Project Alpha: Part 2, Randi. Forecasting radio and Singer. Bigfoot on the loose, Kurtz. Parental expec­ quality by the planets, Dean. Reduction in paranormal tations of miracles, Steiner. Downfall of a would-be psychic, belief in college course, Tobacyk. Humanistic astrology, McBurney and Greenberg. Parapsychology research, Mishlove. Kelly and Krutzen. SUMMER 1980 (vol. 4, no. 4): , Bainbridge SUMMER 1983 (vol. 7, no. 4): Project Alpha: Part 1, Randi. and Stark. , Feder. , Goodman's 'American Genesis,' Feder. Battling on the air­ Klass. Follow-up on the 'Mars effect,' Evolution vs. waves, Slavsky. Rhode Island UFO film, Emery. Landmark creationism, and the Cottrell tests. PK hoax, Gardner. SPRING 1980 (vol. 4, no. 3): Belief in ESP, Morris. UFO SPRING 1983 (vol. 7, no. 3): , Worrall. The Nazca hoax, Simpson. Don Juan vs. Piltdown man, de Mille. drawings revisited, Nickell. People's Almanac predictions, Tiptoeing beyond Darwin, Greenwell. Conjurors and the Donnelly. Test of , Dlhopolsky. Pseudoscience psi scene, Randi. Follow-up on the Cottrell tests. in the name of the university, Lederer and Singer. WINTER 1979-80 (vol. 4, no. 2): The 'Mars effect' — WINTER 1982-83 (vol. 7, no. 2): , Port. The articles by Kurtz, Zelen, and Abell; Rawlins; Michel and Franchise great SRI die mystery, Gardner. The 'monster' tree-trunk Gauquelin. How I was debunked, Hoebens. The metal of Loch Ness, Campbell. UFOs and the not-so-friendly bending of Professor Taylor, Gardner. Science, intuition, skies, Klass. In defense of skepticism, Reber. and ESP, Bauslaugh. FALL 1982 (vol. 7, no. 1): The prophecies of , FALL 1979 (vol. 4, no. 1): A test of dowsing, Randi. Science Cazeau. of all seasons, James Randi. Revival of and evolution, Godfrey. Television pseudodocumentaries, Nostradamitis, Hoebens. Unsolved mysteries and extra­ Bainbridge. New disciples of the paranormal, Kurtz. UFO ordinary phenomena, Gill. Clearing the air about psi, or UAA, Standen. The lost panda, van Kampen. , Randi. A skotography scam, Randi. Randi. SUMMER 1982 (vol. 6, no. 4): Remote-viewing, Marks. SUMMER 1979 (vol. 3, no. 4): The moon and the Radio disturbances and planetary positions, Meeus. Divin­ birthrate, Abell and Greenspan. Biorhythms, Hines. 'Cold ing in Australia, Smith. "Great Lakes Triangle," Cena. reading,' Randi. Teacher, student, and the paranormal, Skepticism, closed-mindedness, and science fiction, Beyer- Krai. Encounter with a sorcerer, Sack. stein. Followup on ESP logic, Hardin and Morris and Gendin. SPRING 1979 (vol. 3, no. 3): Near-death experiences, SPRING 1982 (vol. 6, no. 3): The Shroud of Turin, Mueller. Alcock. Television tests of Musuaki Kiyota, Scott and Hutchin­ Shroud image, McCrone. Science, the public, and the son. The conversion of J. Allen Hynek, Klass. Asimov's Shroud, Schafersman. Zodiac and personality, Gauquelin. corollary, Asimov. Followup on quantum PK, Hansel. WINTER 1978-79 (vol. 3, no. 2): Is parapsychology a WINTER 1981-82 (vol. 6, no. 2): On coincidences, Ruma science? Kurtz. Chariots of the gullible, Bainbridge. The Falk. Croiset: Part 2, Hoebens. Scientific creationism, Schade­ Tunguska event, Oberg. Space travel in Bronze Age China, wald. Follow-up on 'Mars effect,' Rawlins, responses by Keightley. CS1COP Council and Abell and Kurtz. FALL 1978 (vol. 3, no. 1): An empirical test of astrol­ FALL 1981 (vol. 6, no. 1): : Part 1, Hoebens. ogy, Basledo. Astronauts and UFOs, Oberg. Sleight of Test of perceived horoscope accuracy. Lackey. Planetary tongue, Schwartz. The Sirius "mystery," Ridpath. positions and radio propagation, lanna and Margolin. SPRING/SUMMER 1978 (vol. 2, no. 2): Tests of three , 1981, Dennett. Observation of a psychic, psychics, Randi. Biorhythms, Bainbridge. Plant perception, Mclntyre. Kmetz. Anthropology beyond the fringe. Cole. NASA and SUMMER 1981 (vol. 5, no. 4): Investigation of 'psychics,' UFOs, Klass. A second Einstein ESP letter, Gardner. Randi. ESP: A conceptual analysis, Gendin. The extrover­ FALL/WINTER 1977 (vol. 2, no. 1): Von Daniken, Story, sion-introversion astrological effect, Kelly and Saklofske. Art, The Bermuda Triangle, Kusche. Pseudoscience at Science science, and paranormalism, Habercom. Profitable night­ Digest, Oberg and Sheaffer. Einstein and ESP, Gardner. N- mare, Wells. A Maltese cross in the Aegean? Loftin. rays and UFOs, Klass. Secrets of the psychics, Rawlins. SPRING 1981 (vol. 5, no. 3): Hypnosis and UFO SPRING/SUMMER 1977 (vol. 1, no. 2): Uri Geller, Marks abductions, Klass. Hypnosis not a truth serum, Hilgard. and Kammann. , Hyman. Transcendental Medi­ H. Schmidt's PK experiments. Hansel. Further comments tation, Woodrum. A statistical test of astrology, McGervey. on Schmidt's experiments, Hyman. Atlantean road, Randi. Cattle mutilations, Stewart. Deciphering ancient America, McKusick. A sense of the FALL/WINTER 1976 (vol. 1, no. 1): , Wallis. ridiculous. Lord. Psychics and clairvoyance. Fine. "Objections to Astrology," WINTER 1980-81 (vol. 5, no. 2): Fooling some people Westrum. Astronomers and astrophysicists as astrology all the time. Singer and Benassi. Recent critics, Kurtz and Nisbel. Biorhythms and sports. Fix. Von developments, Schadewald. National Enquirer astrology Daniken's chariots, Omohundro. pp., $24.95, cloth. While scientific until it is observed," "Scientists don't knowledge is ever-expanding, miscon­ have any imagination," etc.) and ceptions about the natural world and exposes the misconceptions and false the nature of science itself abound. assumptions behind each. This is an Physicist Rothman examines 16 fre­ expansion of his article "Myths About quently encountered myths about the Science . . . and Belief in the Paran­ nature of science ("Nothing is known ormal" in the Fall 1989 SKEPTICAL for sure,""Nothing is impossible,""All INQUIRER. theories are equal," "Nothing exists —Kendrick Frazier

Articles Of Note

Dvorak, John C. "How Lazy New fraud is not as rigorous as the federal Agers Brought Back That Dreaded government's new Office of Scientific Term 'Paradigm Shift.' " PC Comput­ Integrity would have us believe. He ing, March 1992, p. 44. Column gives examples of standard procedures skewers management gurus and that could be considered fraudulent. industry magazines for adopting buzzwords used by the New Age Hansson, Sven Ove. "Is Anthropos- movement: "You know, the people ophy Science?" Conceptus, vol. 25(64): who have lost faith in scientific 37-49, 1991. Examination of the method and who eschew research in claims of anthroposophy, one of the favor of the advice of a bald-headed most successful occult movements in shaman named Ekododo. . . ." Europe, to be a science. Uses two criteria, intersubjectivity and confir­ Goetzmann, William H. "The Rage mation by empirical science, both of for Antiquity." Science, December 6, which have been accepted by the 1991, pp. 1528-1529. Book review of movement's founder, Rudolf Steiner. Stephen Williams's Fantastic Archaeol­ On this basis concludes, "The claims ogy, "a wonderful ride through Never- that anthroposophy is a science are Never Land where Vikings land in not justified." western Oklahoma and sail away into the sunsets of the California deserts; Hipschman, Ron. "So You Want to Be where all over the continent are clues a Psychic?" Exploratorium Quarterly, by way of ancient Hebrew inscrip­ Winter 1991, pp. 8-11. Explains how tions, Egyptian hieroglyphics, . . . believers in astrology and other Norse rune stones and rusted swords, "unconventional" sciences are led and Barry Fell's sacrificial altars. . . ." astray by some basic human tenden­ cies innate in all of us: "We tend to Goodstein, David. "Scientific Fraud." personalize unrelated facts; we tend American Scholar, Autumn 1991, pp. to believe positive things about our­ 505-515. Goodstein argues that the selves; and we tend to remember line between scientific judgment and events selectively."

Summer 1992 425 Holton, Gerald. "How to Think About Research, Fall 1991, pp. 305-325. the 'Anti-science' Phenomenon." Examines the epistemology of inter­ Public Understanding of Science (Insti­ pretive anthropology, which is tute of Physics, U.K.), l(l): 103-128, founded on two premises: that evo­ 1992. Important essay by Harvard cation and interpretation, rather than physicist and historian of science. description and explanation, are suf­ Presents a framework for deciding ficient and appropriate goals for which forms of opposition to science anthropology, and that objective are relatively negligible and which are scientific descriptions and explana­ potentially dangerous, and what they tions of human affairs are unattain­ portend for science and culture. Belief able. Finds both premises insupport­ in anti-science (or "alternative able, "as can be demonstrated from the science" or "parascience") is grounded absurd conclusions that inevitably in a person's functional worldview, result when those premises are ap­ says Holton. It is one symptom of a plied to claims of paranormal phe­ long-standing struggle over the legi­ nomena." Paper identifies the logical timacy of the authority of conven­ errors of "postmodernism" and sug­ tional science, as well as the concept gests a reconciliation between scien­ of modernity in which science is tific and interpretive approaches in embedded. He proposes strategies for anthropology. dealing with "the set of countervisons which periodically attempt to raise Levy, Steven. "Sensitive New Age themselves from the level of apparent Software." MacWorld, April 1992, pp. harmlessness to that of politically 63-65. Tongue-in-cheek review of ambitious success." software representing a budding genre, Sensitive New Age Software Hoyt, Erich. "Into the Mystic." (e.g., Mac-Horoscope, Psychic Books in Canada, November 1991, pp. Reward, Synchronicity). "It would 11-13. A lengthy review essay about have you believe that alchemists, John Oliphant's Brother Twelve, a magic, and sorcerers in those creaky biography of the mystic/charlatan days of yesteryear would have per­ Edward Arthur Wilson, who in 1927 formed even more powerful magic if founded the Aquarian Foundation, a they'd had Classics, IIci's, and Quadras Utopian colony in Canada that prom­ at their disposal." ised to lay the foundations of "the new age." McCarthy, Kathleen. "Belief in Paranormal Isn't OK, It's Harmful." Kanitscheider, Bernulf. "A Philo­ APA Monitor (American Psychologi­ sopher Looks At Astrology." Interdis­ cal Association), November 1991. ciplinary Science Reviews, September News article summarizes paper by 1991, pp. 258-266. The author feels Terence Sandbeck given at APA scientific arguments against astrology meeting in August 1991. have been contradictory and unsyste­ matic. He attempts an organized Oldenburg, Don. "The Plots Thicken: ontological review of the flaws in Conspiracy Theorists Are Every­ astrology. where." Washington Post, January 28, 1991, p. E5. Inquiry into conspiracy Lett, James. "Interpretive Anthropol­ theories and the psychological and ogy, Metaphysics, arid the Paranor­ sociological explanations for their mal." Journal of Anthropological appeal.

426 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 Reibstein, Larry, and Karen Springen. national Society for Contemporary "Spotting the Write Stuff: Is Graphol­ Legend Research. ogy Emerging from the Kooky Closet?" Newsweek, February 17,1992, Utts, Jessica. "Replication and Meta- p. 44. Brief feature alleges that Analysis in Parapsychology." Statisti­ graphology "may be moving out of the cal Science, 6(4): 363-378, 1991. Over­ kooky closet" despite critics' de­ view of the use of statistics in nouncements that it has "about as parapsychology and a summary of the much scientific validity as tea leaves." meta-analyses that have been pre­ Companies are using graphology sented. This paper, by a statistician more in hiring decisions "because, sympathetic to parapsychology, is well, not much else is available." followed (pp. 379-395) by a series of comments by other scholars on both Rousseau, Denis L. "Case Studies in sides of the issue, including Ray Pathological Science." American Hyman, Persi Diaconis, Joel B. Green­ Scientist, January-February 1992, pp. house, Frederick Mosteller, and 54-63. Excellent inquiry by a Distin­ Robert L. Morris, and a rejoinder (pp. guished Member of Technical Staff at 396-403) by Utts. AT&T Bell Laboratories into how the experimenters' loss of objectivity led Wood, Daniel. "The Psychic Search to false conclusions in the studies of for Selma Sung." Vancouver, February polywater, infinite dilution, and cold 1992, pp. 24-27. Feature on use of fusion. psychics in a police case differs from the usual in that a prominent skeptic, Rout, Lawrence. "Fables of Fright." psychologist Barry Beyerstein, is American Way, January 15, 1992, pp. actually quoted; adds that "the Vic­ 38-41. Feature about research into toria police, it turns out, share Beyer- contemporary legends—myths of stein's doubts." killer clowns, poisoned candy, and such—focusing on the work of English —Kendrick Frazier professor Bill Ellis and the Inter­ and Robert Lopresti

Watch for a CSICOP Seminar/Workshop Near You CSICOP has scheduled several seminars and workshops, under the auspices of the Institute for Inquiry, in the coming months: Chicago, Illinois—Saturday, September 19 Boston Massachusetts—Saturday, November 15 Miami, Florida—Saturday, December 13 Los Angeles, California—Thurs.-Sun., Jan. 14-17, 1993 Further details will appear in future issues, or write to Barry Karr, CSICOP, P.O Box 703, Buffalo, NY 14226-0703, or call him at 716-636-1425.

Summer 1992 427 Follow-Up UFO Crash At Roswell? DONALD R. SCHMITT AND KEVIN D. RANDLE

n his review of our UFO Crash at the debris recovery efforts. Roswell (SI, Fall 1991), Philip J. Klass Klass completely ignores this cru­ I makes blanket claims and state­ cial aspect of secrecy. With one ments that seriously distort our exception, all the firsthand military argument and the evidence we witnesses who were on the debris field gathered. Given space limitations, we have said they were sworn to secrecy can only detail a few of his errors and in July of 1947. This information is omissions in this reply. in our book, but Klass chooses not to Klass attempts to show that the mention it. One such person is Major debris recovered at Roswell was Edwin D. Easley, who was Provost nothing but a weather balloon with Marshall (chief of the MPs) at the a radar-tracking device by explaining base. Easley (p. 270) claims that he was away the testimony of key witnesses sworn to secrecy and and can't talk and by downgrading their status to with us about his role or what he "low-level military personnel." Klass knows of the recovery. Klass, while is able to do so only because he never mentioning such military wit­ engages in the same type of coverup nesses directly, must conclude they of which he accuses us: omitting were either lying or were misled by evidence that would disprove his our questioning. But given that these claims. men were members of an elite military A most egregious example of this group, these are both rather ludicrous is the statement that "three persons "explanations" for their testimony. were firsthand witnesses to the Klass makes much of the fact that original debris." This is nonsense, as Cavitt, whom he goes on about, Klass must know. A fourth living contradicts our version of events and witness studiously avoided by Klass that we don't mention him until late is M/Sgt. Lewis (Bill) Rickett, who in the book. However, Cavitt asked worked directly under Captain Sheri­ us to mention him in the book as little dan Cavitt in counterintelligence. We as possible. We honored his request, report (pp. 159-160, 162-163) on two even though we knew critics would interviews with Rickett in which he use this as a red herring. describes his visit to the original debris In any case, Cavitt's testimony is field and the bizarre nature of the suspect, not only because his fellow debris. Rickett also confirmed the counterintelligence agent, Rickett, extraordinary secrecy surrounding contradicts it, but because Cavitt

428 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 misled us about other, documented debris. He also had direct knowledge facts. For example, when we originally of a secret UFO-investigation team contacted him, he denied he was ever that periodically staged at Wright- stationed at Roswell in 1947! At this Patterson before leaving on a mission. point, there is no reason to use his Does Klass wish to claim that General testimony to verify anything. Exon is lying or confused? Klass refers to two military doc­ We have demonstrated that Klass's uments as proof there is no coverup, review seriously misrepresents the but he fails to mention Brigadier nature of evidence in our book by General Arthur Exon's testimony (pp. leaving out critical information that 108-112, 231-234). Exon was base supports the coverup scenario. We commander at Wright-Patterson Air certainly don't mind a fair debate on Force Base in 1964. As such he was the Roswell event, but we are dis­ aware of a "top secret committee" that heartened when our work is unfairly had been formed to study the Roswell attacked.

Response to Schmitt and Randle PHILIP J. KLASS

f the tales told by what Randle and hand witnesses" have subsequently Schmitt call "firsthand military recanted and significantly changed witnesses" who claim "they were their stories. They opt to rely on sworn to secrecy" are true, these flawed 40-year-old recollections and sources obviously are persons who to ignore hard evidence in the form readily violate their oaths. This by of once "Secret" and "Top Secret" CIA itself should make their tales suspect. and Defense Department documents Curiously, none of them—including that deny their crashed-saucer Exon—has been admonished, let alone fantasies. punished by loss of military service/ retirement benefits, so far as is known. Philip }. Klass, chairman of CSICOP's Randle/Schmitt ignore numerous UFO Subcommittee, is writing a book on contradictions between the tales they "crashed saucer" claims that is expected have been told by different "wit­ to be published late this year by Prome­ nesses." And two of their key "first- theus Books.

Summer 1992 429 Forum

A Tabloid Encyclopedia? The Americana Disappoints LEWIS JONES

magine, if you will, that I am a Some gifted subjects are quite believer who has seen the light. I consistent, and some relaxation have discovered the SKEPTICAL procedures give fairly consistent I results even with unselected sub­ INQUIRER of course, but copies are few and far between—once every three jects. This last implies that ESP and PK abilities are common but ordi­ months is not exactly a filling . narily weak and erratic. What I need is a good solid source of information. Something I can turn to I put opinion on hold and try whenever I need to check the facts. TELEPATHY. An encyclopedia? Why not? It's not confined to any one subject, and it Laboratory investigators seem to covers just about everything you confirm that telepathy can occur. could want to know. I ask around: The sender translated the digits Which is the most prestigious? In the of a random number table into a United States, how about the Encyc­ private code, never written or lopedia Americana? Last-minute source spoken, then "sent" the message in of doubt—it costs hundreds of dollars. code. These examples have given I check it out. Is it constantly updated? results that cannot be explained by They say yes. Are the articles written chance, thus indicating the exist­ by acknowledged experts? They say ence of "pure telepathy." yes. Hang the expense. I'll have it. It's a lifetime investment. Sigh. Got it. All 30 volumes. Check the CLAIRVOYANCE? publication date—this year. And now, Although it was formerly believed feet up. Stand by for an education in that few persons were clairvoyant, my own living room. Eeny-meeny- modern research indicates that miny-mo: PARAPSYCHOLOGY. clairvoyant ability of a very faint, intermittent sort is widespread. While in a trance or through auto­ matic writing, these mediums gave How about people rather than accurate descriptions of people or subjects? You might expect that events they could not normally have historical and biographical detail known. So many laboratories using would perhaps be less amenable to ultracareful methods have demon­ distortion. But the article on JOSEPH strated ESP and PK that both seem BANKS RHINE informs us that "PK is well established, but some scientists a direct mental influence on outside remain skeptical. events such as dice throws."

430 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 And SO to DANIEL HOME. Nevertheless, no tests were con­ ducted on portions of the cloth Hundreds of reputable witnesses bearing the image, and the question reported that they saw him levitate, of the image's origin remains unre­ sometimes remaining about a foot solved. ... Many continue to believe in the air for several seconds. Three that the image was produced mirac­ witnesses said that while they were ulously at Jesus's resurrection from in semi-darkness they saw him the dead. On announcing the results levitate horizontally through a of the test, the Roman Catholic window open only about a foot and Church, which had never formally return through an open window in declared the Shroud to be Jesus's the next room. burial cloth, made it clear that it continued to regard the Shroud as a proper object of veneration. This wildly inaccurate account of the happening at Ashley House would be considered lamentable in a tabloid Some contributors prefer the cloak newspaper. What is it doing in Amer­ of anonymity. From one of these, we ica's encyclopedic high-flyer, rubbing learn that though the Italian medium shoulders with properly researched EUSAPIA PALLADINO was sometimes accounts of plasma physics and the caught in trickery, she was "noted for cardiovascular system? her powers of telekinesis or All the examples so far are from psychokinesis." the pen of one contributor—Gertrude She was investigated by scientists, Schmeidler. But others have made and "in their presence, she apparently their offerings. discharged an electroscope and made Rhine himself was assigned the a lever balance register a weight of article on SPIRITUALISM: 7 kg (15.4 pounds), again without touching them. In 1908, while she was Experimental studies in extrasen­ being investigated by the Italian sory perception ... have shown that criminologist Cesare Lombroso, she the mind can, in certain instances, apparently made a table rise into the reach out across space and time and air, where it was photographed." physical barriers to acquire infor­ In the BERMUDA TRIANGLE (you will mation that the senses and the reason could not obtain. not now be surprised to learn) "more than 100 planes, ships, and boats with more than 1,000 seamen and airmen Our source of information on the are believed to have disappeared, SHROUD OF TURIN is Robert Drews, . . . leaving no trace. In some cases author of the pro-authenticity In no distress message was received, Search of the Shroud of Turin: heightening the mystery." . . . Tests carried out in the 1970s At least Larry Kusche's two books proved that the image was not are among those suggested for further painted and that the bloodstains on reading, but then so is Without a it were real. Trace: New Information from the Tri­ angle, by C. F. Berlitz and J. M. There is no way of avoiding the Valentine. radiocarbon tests that dated the As an antidote to this depressing Shroud to the thirteenth or four­ catalogue, I can offer only a few whiffs teenth century of course. But in these of the breeze of cool reason. murky areas, science is easily DOWSING has been mercifully dismissed: alloted to E. Z. Vogt and L. K. Barrett:

Summer 1992 431 Controlled field and laboratory tests unscientific education of its practi­ have failed to establish the validity tioners and their rigid adherence to of dowsing, and judged by scientific an irrational, unscientific approach standards the practice has little basis to disease causation. in fact. What is one to make of all this? ASTROLOGY, "in spite of attempts What is the point of singling out the to establish itself as a science, must tabloid press for sloppy research, be considered a pseudoscience and a when a student seeking factual divinatory art." (Grateful thanks to help has to turn to an encyclo­ Erika Bourguignon, professor of pedia that can't even get Houdini's anthropology at Ohio State Uni­ birth date right, 20 years after the versity.) Society of American Magicians estab­ A few welcome words on GRAPHOL­ lished it with a copy of his birth OGY from Michael Rothenberg, of the certificate? Department of School Services, City There is a lesson to be drawn, and College, New York: a trap to be avoided. For information on calculus you Much handwriting analysis is pseu­ would turn to a mathematician, and doscience, closer to fortune-telling an article on isomerism would be than serious research. farmed out to a chemist. The principle seems obvious: "Get your information And finally, two contributions from a practitioner who specializes in from Miriam G. Hill, associate profes­ the subject." sor of journalism at the University of The trap lies in not completing the Alabama. principle: "Get your information from First, HOMEOPATHY: a practitioner who specializes in the subject, provided the subject has a The critics of homeopathy have scientific basis." claimed that homeopaths are con­ So-called researchers for tele­ cerned only with the symptoms of vision programs notoriously fall head diseases and do not try to recognize first into this trap. When they need or treat the underlying cause of diseases. Hahnemann's minute dos­ a comment about an unidenti­ age has also been scorned, as well fied flying object, they normally as his erroneous belief that all reach for a list of UFO enthusiasts and chronic illnesses develop from three pick up the phone. (At least the sources: syphillis, venereal warts, or Americana got this one right—they psor (itch). The view of the Amer­ allotted their article on UFOs to Carl ican Medical Association is that Sagan.) homeopathy is only of historical And the lesson is for readers: In interest as a progressive departure a standard definition of the word from the primitive forms of therapy it surpassed. encyclopedia (a work that contains information on all branches of knowledge), be particularly wary of And this on CHIROPRACTIC: the term information. The expression "tabloid encyclopedia" may not be The American Medical Association quite the contradiction you thought has charged that CHIROPRACTIC it was. constitutes a hazard to rational health care in the United States because of the substandard and Lewis Jones is a writer in London.

432 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 A CSICOP SEMINAR The Skeptic's Toolbox at Eugene Thursday-Monday, August 20-24 The workshop will begin with dinner and an introduction on Thursday night, August 20, and will adjourn at noon on Monday. Our goal is to sharpen the ability of skeptics to deal with various situations. Some of the topics to be covered by the five lecturers are:

The Brain and Psychic Experience Pitfalls in Psychical Research How Our Minds Can Deceive Us How to Deal with the Media How Children Succeed in Fooling and Confrontational Adults Challenges The Statistics of Coincidences How to Convince Strangers You The Dowsing and the Are Psychic Board How to Distinguish Good How to Avoid Legal Pitfalls from Corrupt Information Ray Hyman, the workshop coordinator, is a professor of psychology at the University of Oregon and a member of the CSICOP Executive Council. He has written extensively on the critical evaluation of paranormal claims. With a background in professional magic, he specializes in the psychology of human error and deception. Barry Beyerstein, professor of psychology at Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, B.C., and a member of the CSICOP Executive Council, specializes in how the brain determines behavior. He has researched how apparently psychic experiences can be due to malfunctions in the brain. , a clinical psychologist with the Veterans Administration in Portland, Oregon, is the world's foremost authority on the Munchausen Syndrome, which refers to patients who repeatedly and successfully fake serious illnesses. He has studied quackery in all its guises, and is a magician who writes on the psychology of conjuring. Jeff Mayhew, whose degree is in physics, has pioneered in applying computer graphics and the latest audiovisual tools to foster skepticism. He will demonstrate how to target audiences and how to deliver your message most effectively. , magician, inventor, and iconoclast, has lectured at Harvard, MIT, the University of Oregon, and elsewhere on how people reach the wrong conclusions for the "right" reasons. He has created many optical illusions and is a consultant to major science museums. Take advantage of this exciting opportunity to sharpen your skeptical skills, and join us on the Sunday fieldtrip to the "Oregon Vortex," one of Oregon's major "paranormal" geographical sites. For registration information, contact Barry Karr, CSICOP, P.O Box 703, Buffalo, NY 14226-0703, or call him at 716-636-1425. Letters to the Editor r^g^-af •

Crop circles when the pattern appeared. After a photograph of the phenomenon I enjoyed Joe Nickell and John F. Fischer's appeared in the Cambridge Weekly article on crop circles in your Winter News, mathematicians pointed to a 1992 issue. I think that one of the fact that makes a forgery rather unlikely: Unlike regular geometric overriding motives of the hoaxers is to patterns, fractals like the Mandelbrot put one over on the pretentious self- set cannot just be drawn, they have styled experts who see UFOs and to be built up point by point. And mysterious phenomena behind every mathematicians have shown that even bush. then it is impossible to put the pattern The British journal New Scientist on paper accurately with a pen reported that hoaxers with a mathe­ matical bent struck in the cornfields of (By the way, the probably garbled Cambridge producing a corn Mandel­ mathematicians' comments on drawing brot set! Suspicion fell on the University the Mandelbrot set are irrelevant: of Cambridge mathematics department. Mathematicians draw it quite often on The Cambridge Weekly News printed a blackboards, and the photograph looks picture of the circle, not realizing what exactly like a very good drawing of the it represented until a number of readers Mandelbrot set.) identified the shape and pointed out that I greatly enjoy the prospect of seeing it was probably done by Unemployed elaborate theories developed on why Fractal Observers. plasma storms should come in Mandel­ brot's gingerbread-man patterns. Or Frank Sonleitner why extraterrestrials are begging for Norman, Okla. gingerbread.

Boris Hasselblatt The investigative report on the crop- Somerville, Mass. circle phenomenon reminded me of an amusing newspaper clipping I was sent from Germany. A synopsis is roughly as follows: Nickell and Fischer fail to take the best tack in dealing with "anecdotal" crop- Strange Crop-Circle of the circle reports. Chaotic Kind We are confronted with a diplomatic A crop-circle near Cambridge is problem any time sane-seeming individ­ currently causing some confusion—it uals recount, in apparent good faith, is not a simple circle, but the most implausible things that have "happened" complicated object in mathematics: a to them or to those they respect. It is Mandelbrot set. The mathematics difficult at best to deal with this without department of the university, being seeming to call them crazy or liars. under suspicion, denies being involved in any hoax. Also, Benoit Mandelbrot, Although either of these may be correct, the mathematical discoverer of the it is not efficacious to say so; so we skirt chaotic structure, denied, in New the matter and unavoidably grant our Scientist, any connection with the crop interlocutors more room than they pattern. He was in North America should have. But sometimes we can do

434 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 better, and crop circles is such a case. I read with interest the article on crop Delgado/Andrews write on page 21 circles. I was intrigued by the idea of of Circular Evidence that the photograph a "bandwagon" effect. Although the adjoining the text is notable for being authors mentioned that the incidents free of tractor tram marks; this is increased faster than exponentially over important since tram marks remove any time, I thought it would be interesting serious objection to hoaxing as an to plot the data given on page 140. explanation for a particular incident. If there really is a , However, the photograph in fact shows then more publicity should yield more tram marks quite clearly, including one incidents and we would actually expect set going through the crop circles. This an exponential increase because dn/dt kind of thing plopped on the table in would be proportional to n. I plotted the middle of a discussion is dynamite ln(n), where n is the number of crop in impeaching "firsthand" accounts. circles in a year, versus the year. The correlation between the data and the David P. Babcock best straight line is better than 98 Minneapolis, Minn. percent! So, we may conclude, the data we have are better than a 98-percent fit to what would be expected if the only As a person long craving for a scientific mechanism were hoaxers jumping on explanation of the crop-circle pheno­ the bandwagon. mena, I could not help being disap­ pointed by your article on the subject. Ronald Stearns The authors conclude that the circles Newport Corporation must be and shun the pheno­ Fountain Valley, Calif. mena by resorting to the same circum­ stantial evidence they criticize so much, and by repeatedly quoting the discred­ Joe Nickell replies: ited Delgado and Andrews "investiga­ tors." And to place Meaden in the same 1 am grateful for the input of Frank vein as that duo is a disservice to some­ Sonleitner, Boris Hasselblatt, and Ronald one who has at least attempted to apply Stearns. objective reasoning to the problem. I also appreciate the point David P. As someone who lived in the Wessex Babcock is trying to make; however, his area for a few years, I can vouch for discrediting of Delgado and Andrews's claim the farmers' irritation at the loss of about the absence of tram lines, while correct, thousands of dollars in spoiled crops. In does not provide a model for dealing with— addition to laying on such complex for example—the claims of three alleged formations at night, any hoaxer exposes eyewitnesses to the vortex creation of a circle. himself to the farmers' shotguns. The We do not feel that there was any impropriety authors should ponder why not a single in observing that "unfortunately, all waited hoaxer has been caught on the spot several years before making their claims, during the many years the phenomena and none described the respective events in have existed. While there is no doubt quite the same way." that many of those circles are indeed the As to Israel del Rio's criticisms, first result of hoaxes, and that the pheno­ of all it was anecdotal, not circumstantial, mena have been cheapened by unscrup­ evidence that we disparaged, the latter often ulous , the fact remains that being very powerful indeed—as any textbook they still present a valid mystery crying or law will attest. Second, his defense of for rational, proved explanations. I'm for Meaden over Delgado and Andrews seems healthy skepticism on the matter; not predicated on the notion that pseudoscience for skepticism at all costs. is better than no science at all—an assumption of dubious merit. Finally, need Israel del Rio one point out that del Rio contradicts himself? Highlands Ranch, Colo. He argues against the hoax hypothesis on

Summer 1992 435 the grounds that hoaxers have not been important because they needed to apprehended (a weak argument, given the conserve material and labor, while expanse of the crop fields), then blithely achieving a stable structure. concedes "there is no doubt that many of Lastly and of most concern to me is the circles are indeed the result of hoaxes." de Jager's comment, "It has indeed some Given such thinking on his part, one can astronomical characteristics." It does only fear that del Rio will remain forever not. The north-south orientation, often mystified. quoted, had religious significance and can be achieved by a method given in my 40-year-old Boy Scout Handbook. Cyclosophy and pyramidology Further, I have shown (Bulletin of the American Astronomy Society, 16 [4]:887, In his "Adventures in Science and 1984) the descending passageway sloped Cyclosophy," SI, Winter 1992, Cornelis at 23.5651° in accordance with the fact de Jager correctly states that the ratios that a stone 1 cubit square laid on top of height (481) to base (755) of Khufu's of a third in a row created an angle (Cheops's) pyramid is 1 to jt/2. In fact where: Tan 0 x 1/2. This was how the ratios relating to n are found throughout builders constructed the passageway. that pyramid to great accuracy, and They did not "aim" the pyramid at a there is an obvious explanation. First let Draconis. In fact a Draconis could not me state that Egyptian mathematics have been seen by an observer at the during the pyramid age (2800-2300 B.C.) bottom of that passageway. With similar was far from being advanced. In fact the examples one can show the air vents did Rhind papyrus (1700 B.C.) shows frac­ not slope toward celestial objects. tions were most difficult and while the To sum up, the builders of Khufu's concept (not the value) of JI was known pyramid had no mathematical museum it was approximate by the fraction in mind when they built it, nor did they 22/7. Pi was not "sealed" within the aim the pyramid at the stars. In fact Great Pyramid. many of the laborers may have wished The reason for its occurrence is to just dig a 6-foot hole (3.5 cubits) and simple and known to any wheelwright. plant the old tyrant! Thank you for In a monograph dealing with weights permitting me to air my viewpoint. I and measurements of the ancient Egyp­ hope these remarks have not distracted tians, Sir Flinders Petrie noted that from the important point of de Jager's when the Khufu pyramid was built the article. "cubit" was preserved carefully. Until then and during the construction of R. L. Walker earlier pyramids the cubit differed from Flagstaff, Ariz. structure to structure and often varied on a single job! By the time these geometers had reached Khufu the cubit Cornelis de Jager ascribes the coinci­ was a standard of measurement. To lay dence between JI and the dimensions of out long linear measurements they used the Great Pyramid to an accident. The a wheel one cubit in diameter and rolled relationship is not an accident but an out an integer number of revolutions. artifact of the construction process. This, naturally, inserted the value of JI As a physicist, engineer, and occa­ in the metrology of the building and sional lecturer on pyramid myths, I knew throughout the structure by an analog there was no historical evidence that the manner. pyramid builders had known the value Second point: Ancient engineers of Jt; the earliest (incorrect) value dates were not fools. Kurt Mendelssohn from a thousand years later. However, showed (American Scientist, 59:2, 1971) twice the base of the Great Pyramid the pyramids were built on a trial-and- divided by its height does approxi­ error basis until study culminated with mate JI. the proportions of Khufu's. This was The slope of the Great pyramid,

436 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 which determines its base-to-height they had accurately measured the length ratio, is about 52°. Why was this of the year. Actually, I don't see anything particular value chosen from the prac­ particularly implausible in either of tical range of slopes? Obviously the these claims, but then the mystifiers slope was measured during construction shoot themselves in the foot by pointing to ensure that it remained constant. If out that "twice the diagonal contains the measurement was done in royal 25,826 pyramid inches (one p.i. being 1/ cubits, which were divided into 28 25 p.y.), which is the precession period fingers, then the slope of the Great in years of the earth's axis." Aren't three Pyramid conforms to, "Measure up 1 coincidences more convincing than two? cubit and inward 22 fingers." This makes Well, no: once the base length is set to the ratio of twice the base to the height correspond to the days in the year and exactly three and a seventh, which is the height to express pi, the diagonal not too bad an approximation to n. is a done deal; the designer has no That the slope can be represented by freedom to make it match some arbitrary an integer ratio proves nothing; it might third constant. In fact anyone who be as much a coincidence as the appear­ wants to tell me these dimensions are ance of Jt. However, on examining the significant had better be prepared to slopes of other pyramids built over a start by explaining why the number of 300-year period I found that the major­ solar days in a year is related through ity of them could be ascribed to the same pi to the precessional rate of the earth's method. The vertical measurement was axis. one cubit and the horizontal measure­ Mark Drake ment was an integer number of fingers. Leggett, Calif.

I don't know whether to be happy I found Cornells de Jager's article on or sad that the Egyptians never built a cyclosophy most significant and pyramid with a setback of 19 fingers. portentous. Twice the base of such a pyramid, One quibble I have is that, to the best divided by its height, would be within of my recollection, the fine structure 0.15 percent of the value of e, the base constant is not 137.0 but the reciprocal of natural logarithms. Claims that the of that number. Egyptians anticipated Archimedes are bad enough, at least we have been spared I therefore can't help but wonder if, their having anticipated Euler and while developing cyclosophy, de Jager Napier. might not have spent some time riding his Holy Bicycle upside down? Tom Napier Karl Lembke North Wales, Pa. Los Angeles, Calif.

The amusing and insightful article by By the Great Ogdoad, I believe Cornelis Cornelius de Jager suggests another de Jager has made a major discovery! point not specifically brought out, Reprints of his insightful article on the perhaps because not relevant to his Pyramid Religion and Cyclosophy point. Still, it can be a helpful factor in should be made available to the general evaluating the competence of claims for public. I suggest a per copy price of $10 the wonders of the pyramids or Stone- and a small advertisement in Fate. henge or whatever. CSICOP's new headquarters building De Jager mentions that the ratio of could be paid for in six months! the height of the Great Pyramid to its Kidding aside, keep up the good work. base is reported to be 1 to Jt/2, ostensibly CSICOP has never been needed so proving the builders had evaluated pi. badly. Further, the base length in "pyramid John Morris yards" is exactly 365.25, showing that Carol Stream, 111.

Summer 1992 437 Searching for security enthusiasts, etc., are always accusing scientists of being killjoys, rigid and As Martin Grimmer suggests ("Search­ dogmatic types, and stick-in-the-muds. ing for Security in the Mystical," SI, Their advantage is that they seem Winter 1992), belief in the paranormal exhilarating. Their disadvantage is that meets some basic human need. Most they seem crazy. It's true these occultists people of all cultures hold some such et al. may not actually be bold and brave: beliefs. Although part of this need for aliens creating the pyramids, a somehow some people is "to seek control and living and breathing earth, reincarna­ stability," it is ironic that for others the tion, psi powers are old hat. But they need is to be free of the responsibility perennially seem like new hats. And that for control and stability. In other words, is what is important. let somebody else make the decisions, such as a cult leader, or assume some Richard A. Dengrove other force has already made the deci­ Alexandria, Va. sions, as in predestination. Actions arising from belief in the paranormal may be from the relatively Multicultural pseudoscience harmless, such as knocking on wood, to the grossly antihumanitarian, such as While I share Bernard Ortiz de Mon- willfully allowing children to die without tellano's concerns in his two articles on medical attention and human sacrifice. "Spreading Scientific Illiteracy Among In the great social morass of para­ Minorities" (SI, Fall 1991 and Winter normal beliefs, the role of the skeptic 1992), I fear he underestimates the needs to be concentrated on the refu­ problem. Decrying the harm done to tation of those beliefs most damaging African-Americans by racist pseudo- to personality and community. science, he then suggests that, aside from the Portland African-American Lyle Tatum Baseline Essays, it is "spread primarily by Riverton, N.J. broadcasts on black radio stations of lectures given at annual melanin conferences." I enjoyed Martin Grimmer's article, but Would it were so. While the tastes disagree with it. A lot that's nonmystical of your readers might not include rap, is a search for security, and a lot of a generation of youth gets an earful, mundane ideas have been conceived to daily, of the notions promoted by make sense of the world. Science melanin scholars. Such popular groups certainly has been. In fact, an argument as Public Enemy and NWA have for can be made that science gives us greater years been espousing the racial super­ security than all the Blavatskys and von iority of Africans, the blackness of Danikens combined. It gives us real ancient Egyptians, and the "theft" of security. When we use Newton's Laws Egyptian (hence, African) culture by of Motion and Einstein's Relativity, we degenerate Europeans. Preaching this know they work. With German sex material is "dropping knowledge" and is magic or General Semantics, or Kunda- a staple of both lyrics and concert patter. lini Yoga, we are not so certain; they A disturbing aspect of this pheno­ don't totally live up to their billing. menon is that the knowledge "dropped" No, the mystical's attraction is just is presented as a secret, privileged legacy the opposite: it appears bold and brave. hidden from students by racist schools. Similarly, the mystical and occult are Formal science and history are not just romantic ways of thinking. They harken ignored, they are scorned as the tools back to our past, they harken forward of oppression. Thus education, the best to the future, they take things one or means of social advancement, is replaced two steps further than we more mun­ by the cant of a tawdry impostor, a vain dane mortals do. Occultists, saucer and rather sad set of lies.

438 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 The trend has moved well beyond sample. Since the KZA sample contained rap. In a recent Michael Jackson video— many football and basketball players an ancient Egyptian period piece— while Gauquelin tended to avoid these Cleopatra and her court are African. sports, an anti-football and basketball Must look right to MTV fans. bias in Ertel's works could result in a greater proportion of Gauquelin's sam­ Michael Carmen Matti ple having two or more citations in these Carrboro, N.C. works than the KZA sample. In summary, I don't think that Kurtz's response resolves the central Questioning the 'Mars effect" problem posed by Ertel's analysis, though it may explain the differing I was pleased to see the publication of proportions of "high eminence" athletes Suitbert Ertel's article "Update on the between the KZA and Gauquelin sam­ 'Mars Effect' " (SI, Winter 1992). Michel ples. A resolution to the "Mars effect" Gauquelin's "Mars effect" is a fascinat­ mystery remains to be seen—perhaps in ing anomaly that is worthy of skeptical a new study by the French Committee attention. Ertel reevaluates the Kurtz, for the Study of Paranormal Phe­ Zelen, and Abell (KZA) test of the Mars nomena. effect for American athletes (SI, Winter 1979-80) and a 1982 Gauquelin test of Jim Lippard American athletes by dividing up the Tucson, Ariz. samples from both tests on the basis of a more objective measure of eminence— citation counts from a set of 18 reference Suitbert Ertel's article sounds like a lot works. of after-the-fact hypothesizing to me. It Paul Kurtz takes issue with Ertel's is akin to searching the Bible for methodology in his brief reply, "A passages that are "confirmed" by the Dissenting Note on Ertel's 'Update on latest scientific data. the "Mars Effect," ' " on the grounds The selection of who is or is not that Ertel used European "who's who" "noted" or "eminent" is so subjective and books, which have a European bias liable to biases that it is hard to put much against the eminence of American credence in the outcome of the calcu­ football and basketball players. lations no matter how sophisticated they A European bias in Ertel's reference may be. works does not entirely explain the Part of science is prediction. It seems results that appear in Table 1 of his to me that if he wants to be taken article. Athletes cited in 2 or more of seriously, Ertel needs to select at random Ertel's 21 reference works are born a group of, say, 10,000 babies born when Mars is in one of Gauquelin's "key during 1992. Then predict which ones sectors" significantly more frequently will become "noted" or "eminent" than expected by chance, for both the according to a previously agreed upon KZA sample and for Gauquelin's 1982 set of criteria. The predictions would be American sample. Why should a Euro­ based on the planetary situation at birth. pean bias also be a bias for athletes born The predictions must be secret, with Mars in a key sector? written down, and sealed away so as not There is, however, a feature of the to bias the way the children are treated. results in Table 1 that might be Since much real talent shows up early, explained by a bias against football and the trend should begin to show up in basketball stars in Ertel's reference only ten years or so. Mozart and Yehudi works (assuming that such a bias exists). Menuhin were only seven or so when This is Ertel's finding that only 85 of their talent was clear. Most accom­ the 408 athletes in the KZA sample had plished athletes are recognized as two or more citations, as compared with superior in kids' leagues. Great scientists 162 of 349 athletes in Gauquelin's 1982 usually do their supreme work early.

Summer 1992 439 If there is really something there, ten the article. years isn't too long to wait for the Thank you for providing a much- beginnings of an answer. needed and much-appreciated forum for open-mindedness. David J. Simmons Ridgecrest, Calif. Stephen D. Christman University of Toledo Toledo, Ohio Ertel fails to consider an additional alternative explanation for the Mars effect, assuming, of course, that there Probability paradoxes is some sort of effect to account for. If one is willing to assume that there is Martin Gardner's brainteasers ("Proba­ indeed a reliable correlation between the bility Paradoxes," SI, Winter 1992) are position of Mars relative to the horizon not really paradoxes, although they are and the birth dates of people with certainly ingenious and amusing, as is ,eminence in certain domains, the prob­ everything Gardner writes. The air of lem arises of trying to find a causal link paradox about his probability "para­ between the two phenomena. One doxes" evaporates upon reflecting that possible resolution of this dilemma lies they arise from the subjectivist (person­ in finding something else that is corre­ alis!, Bayesian) interpretation of prob­ lated with the position of Mars in the ability he adopts, which is inconsistent sky for which a plausible causal connec­ with the objectivist interpretation used tion with the birth of eminent people in science. Let me explain. can be found. In Gardner's probability problems, One such potential candidate lies in there is a question of ignorance or the relation between handedness and uncertainty, not of objective chance or date of birth. A number of studies have randomness—which is when probability documented a relation between the considerations are legitimate. Let us incidence of left-handedness and season begin with the simplest problem, that of birth, with left-handedness being of the woman who has two children, at associated with Fall and Winter births least one of whom is known to be a boy. (e.g., Badian, 1983, Cortex, 19:451-463; It makes no sense to ask what is the Peterson, 1979, Perceptual & Motor Skills, probability that the second child too is 48:961-962). Similarly, other studies a boy, because he or she is already born have demonstrated associations with a definite sex. The question would between left-handedness and various have made sense only during the very types of artistic and athletic ability (e.g., short period of fertilization, because this Hassler, 1990, Brain and Cognition, 13:1- is indeed a process of random gene 17; McLean and Ciurczaj, 1982, New shuffling, where each of the sexes has England Journal of Medicine, 2:1278- nearly the same chance, i.e., 1/2. Once 1279; Peterson and Lansky, 1977, the ovum has been fertilized, one of the Perceptual & Motor Skills, 45:1216-1218; probabilities has expanded to 1 and the Snow, 1985, ESN, 39:355-359). If the other has contracted 0. position of Mars in the sky bears a In the three-door problem the prison­ systematic relationship with the time of ers do not know who has been pardoned year, then perhaps the real relationship by the governor. During the random is between handedness (with its asso­ shuffling of three slips of paper with the ciation with ability) and time of birth names of the prisoners, each of these (with its association with handedness). did have the same probability, namely In this case, the relationship involving 1/3, of being pardoned. But when the the position of Mars would simply be shuffling came to an end and only one fortuitous. Although this is only con­ of the slips was picked, the probability jecture, it certainly is at least as plausible of this one expanded to 1 whereas the as any of the causal accounts offered in probabilities of the other two contracted

440 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 to 0. Alea jacta est! From here on the a question and was given an answer? probability calculus has nothing to say What if C, not A, had asked and been because the random process has stopped. given the same answer. Then C would The circumstance that neither the have a probability of being executed of prisoners nor their warden knew the 1/3, and A of 2/3! Gardner's logic outcome of the process does not auth­ requires a belief that the act of asking orize them to engage in probabilistic the question and receiving the answer speculations. Probabilities can only be alters the probability of being executed. assigned to random events, and propo­ The probability of an outcome that has sitions are not among them. I have dealt already been decided has been altered with these problems in my paper "Four by the transfer of information. Now Concepts of Probability," Applied Mathe­ that's paranormal! What if C asked after matical Modeling, 5:306-312 (1981). A had asked? Would the probabilities Finally, Hempel's "paradox of confir­ now shift to 1/2 for each or would each mation," about the way to go about prisoner have simultaneous probabilities testing the proposition that all crows are of 1/3 and 2/3? black, is actually a fallacy. A zoologist Perhaps this is the long-sought intent on putting the generalization to application of quantum mechanics to the the test begins by noting that it is about macroscopic world. Let's call this crows, so he will observe crows, not paradox "Schroedinger's Prisoner." We neckties, socks, or what have you. (And know there will be two dead prisoners he will eventually come upon albino eventually, but we won't know which crows, which will refute the generali­ the second will be until we examine the zation in question.) The fallacy origi­ corpses. . . . nates in the logician's exclusive atten­ tion to form and his neglect of con­ Fredrick W. Gilkey tent, in particular reference, as I have Takoma Park, Md. shown in my Treatise on Basic Philosophy, vol. 1, pp. 79-81 (Dordrecht: Reidel, 1974). Martin Gardner replies:

Mario Bunge Bunge and Gilkey are quibbling over a choice McGill University of language that is universally used by Montreal, Canada ordinary people, gamblers, mathematicians, and scientists. If 1 draw a card from a deck, it is perfectly proper for me to say, "The Probability only applies to the future. probability that this card is the Queen of The probability of flipping heads in the Hearts is 1/52." Everybody knows that the future is 1/2. The probability that an card either is the QH or not the QH, and already-flipped coin is heads is 1/1, not that what I mean is that 1 calculate the 1/2. The result is fixed; we just don't probability to be 1/52 that it will be seen know what the result is. In the example, as the QH if 1 turn it over. once the governor decided whom to Consider the problem of the two children pardon, the probability of being exe­ as modeled by a dime and a penny. 1 flip cuted for A and C is 1/1 or 0/1, not both coins and a person with his back turned something in between. Knowing that B to me asks, "Is at least one coin heads?" is to die does not change that fact. One 1 say yes. No mathematician would hesitate might discuss the probability of A to say that the man could not correctly guessing the correct answer, but that declare, "The probability both coins are is not the question posed. heads is 1/3." Everybody understands that In the example of the prisoners, A the coins either are or are not both heads. and C are said to have a large difference If he were to ask, "Is the penny heads?" in probability of being executed. Why? and 1 answer yes, the probability rises to How are these two people different? 1/2 There is only one difference: A asked The three problems discussed in my

Summer 1992 441 column obviously are not paradoxes in the each of us made some decision as to the sense of logical contradictions, but in the nature of the probabilities involved and familiar sense of being surprising and acted accordingly. counter-intuitive. For a good analysis of the As to the second point, that of three-door problem, and the second-ace attitude, I was surprised and saddened problem, see "The Car and the Goats," by by the presence of ad hominem (and ad the distinguished mathematician Leonard feminam) responses (e.g., "should stick Gillman in the American Mathematical to medicine and leave mathematics to Monthly, January 1992. (Note that he uses those trained it"; ". . . Vos Savant's the same language 1 used.) mumbo-jumbo of an explanation"; As for Bunge's quick dismissal of "Maybe women look at math problems Hempel's notorious induction paradox, it differently than men"). Such attacks in seems to me he evades Hempel's subtle no way substitute for solid argument, argument. To the many readers who wrote any more than does an appeal to author­ about this paradox, I urge them to look up ity ("If all those Ph.D.s were wrong, the my discussion in Hexaflexagons and country would be in very serious Other Mathematical Diversions, a trouble"). Nevertheless, how often have University of Chicago Press paperback, and these methods been used to quash check some of the papers listed in my four- opposition in science or elsewhere, when page bibliography. there is no other rebuttal? We should have little difficulty with the first point. If we can agree on the Lessons of the actual assumptions, then we must agree "Three Door Problem" with the results (as did 82 percent of the respondents to SI). As to the second Editor's Note: Letters on the "Three Door point, even (or especially) in the face of Problem" keep flowing in, but we must move vague information, one should not on to other matters. The letter below was resort to abandoning investigation in selected from all of them. It elucidates some favor of insult. If nothing else, this is issues external to the problem itself that are what we criticize in them. well worth remembering. If one considers the issues that SI regularly covers—the MJ-12 papers; the The recent and continuing flap over alleged benefits of firewalking, home­ Marilyn vos Savant's "Three Door opathy, or psychoanalysis; the Shroud Problem" (SI, Summer 1991; Winter of Turin; whether the "face" on Mars 1992) should have taught all of us an is that of Elvis, etc.—it should be obvious object lesson or two; I certainly learned that the "Three Door Problem" is from it. At the same time, it has provided somewhat more cogent to the general us with a powerful demonstration of public ("My God, Mary! Here's how we some important issues. win a car!"). In another sense of cogency, As intriguing as the problem is in it has the advantage of being easily itself, all the more so are the approaches tested by means available to anyone who to its solution and the attitudes of the cares to do so, and thereby it provides authors of the published letters of the opportunity to preach not just to response. So far as the first point is the choir but to the flock. (Martin concerned, each of us made assumptions Gardner's autohistorical piece in the about the nature of the problem—some Winter issue yields other versions of this of us used only those that were explicitly same problem, as do John Allen Paulos's stated in the Parade excerpt, some (e.g., lnnumeracy and Robyn Dawes's Rational myself) included their recollection that Choice in an Uncertain World.) I can claim Monty Hall always opened a "goat door" two new subscribers to SI as a result, (apparently vos Savant's intended ver­ one of whom related a similar unre­ sion), still others recalled the option of solved debate in the Mensa Journal. taking cash instead of (or in addition to) In the end, however, maybe the another door selection, etc. Nonetheless, "flock" is us, since we are obviously

442 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 subject to the same frailties that are alone writes popular books about them, ordinarily and automatically attributed because the present-day representatives to them. of the groups in question became known before the fossil ones did. James M. Price I agree with Riddell that the existence Dept. of Psychology of the living coelacanth does nothing to Oklahoma State Univ. give respectability to . Stillwater, Okla. . . . Until the cryptozoologists can point to incontrovertible proof of the exist­ ence of even one of the fantastic Coelacanth confusion creatures whose existence they specifically predict (e.g., Loch Ness monster, bigfoot, Unfortunately, Paul T. Riddell's review, living African dinosaurs, etc.), or through ("What About the Coelacanth?" (SI, their own efforts turn up an extraordinary Winter 1992), perpetuates and contrib­ previously unknown creature that utes to some of the confusion concern­ neither they nor anyone else had pre­ ing this fish. For one thing, Riddell refers dicted existed, their significant contri­ to it as "the sole known remnant of the butions to zoological knowledge will Crossopterigii [sic], the family of fishes remain, as at present, zero. that includes the ancestors of modern tetrapods [that is, the amphibians, Ronald H. Pine reptiles, birds, and mammals]." Actually, Illinois Mathematics and the family of fishes that the living Science Academy coelacanth belongs to is the Latimeri- Aurora, 111. idae, a family, by the way, totally unknown in the fossil record, contrary to what one usually hears about this Book reviewer Paul T. Riddell, says creature. Its closest known fossil rela­ "Contrary to the popular refrain of the tives from the age of dinosaurs are 'unknown' coelacanth, [Keith S.] Thom­ actually no more nearly related to it than son points out [in Living Fossil] that the a beagle is to a polar bear. Furthermore, coelacanths were well known to the although the order (not family) Crossop- islanders in the Comores. . . ." terygii does include the fossil and However, what Thomson actually present-day coelacanths in one conser­ wrote is the opposite: vative scheme of classification, it was another group of fishes sometimes In their overnight fishing [Ahmed placed in this order, namely, the Rhi- Hussein] Bourou and Soha had caught pidistia, that scientists usually credit many fish, and they managed to sell with providing the ancestral stock for all of them at the morning market on the land vertebrates. A coelacanth is not the beach except the one that turned more closely related to one of these out to be a coelacanth. There is an Rhipidistia than a zebra is to a rhinoc­ oddity here in that [Prof. Margaret] eros. It is curious, by the way, that so Smith later reported that the fish was much is often made of there being an well known to Comoran fishermen, who never kept them when they were 80 or so million-year gap between the caught because they had no value for latest known kinds of fossil coelacanths ; the local name was gombessa or and the present-day kind. There are ngombessa. Affane Mohamed is quite many major groups of living animals for clear that the fishermen did not which there are no known fossils, recognize the fish either as something providing what would seem to be an seen before or as a fish depicted on even more remarkable "gap" of effec­ the schoolhouse wall. In fact it was tively infinite length. There are also the local hairdresser, Abdallah Hou- longer finite gaps than 80 million years; madi, who spotted the fish at the but, in most cases, hardly anyone other market and, although he also did not recognize it, told Affane Mohamed than specialists ever mentions them, let about it. . . .

Summer 1992 443 In other words, the coelacanth was Eve had hair. Gardner may have asked not recognized as a coelacanth, nor did someone else about Eve's hair, but he the natives even have a name for never asked me. As for her navel, I coelacanth, but the fish was recognized responded in the context of the old riddle from the poster distributed by the South that I assumed he knew. African and-English ichthyologists. . . . Gardner also ridiculed the fact that Thus the myth (started by Professor I am editor of Science Probe!—"a hand­ Smith) was that the coelacanth was well some new science magazine." Scientific known to the Comoran fishermen. writings stand or fall on their own merit. Riddell got it backwards. Would Gardner reject the writings of The coelacanth was unknown to the Galileo, Newton, Bacon, Kepler, Lin­ Comoran fishermen. naeus, Pasteur, and a host of others because of their abiding faith in God? Shawn Tiffany Would he have written for Scientific Washington, D.C. American had he known its founding editor, Rufus Porter, advocated in its pages belief in a Creator God? The Mims affair What is puzzling about all this is that Gardner has assured me that he, too, About the Piel-Mims affair: It is the old believes in a "creator God" who is also problem of where to draw the line. In a "personal God." Although Gardner the nature of things people will draw believes God created life through evo­ it in different places, and if there is any lution, he has also assured me that his neat formula for choosing the "right," theism does not preclude the possibility I do not know it. If it had transpired that God is capable of creating life that Mims was a flat-earthian, most spontaneously and without evolution. would, I suspect, have agreed that the Gardner's defense of his former poor fellow needed a screw tightened employer, Scientific American, is mis­ and should not be on the Scientific placed. He knows that to this day the American staff. Still, nobody but a few magazine's staff remains divided over astronauts has been into outer space and the issue. He knows that I was asked directly perceived the planet's globular- more about abortion and my Christian ity; so flat-earthians can say that its faith than about evolution. He also roundness has not been proved to them. knows about the duplicity of the mag­ And as far as evidence goes, that for azine's editor, who denied his promise evolutionism vs. creationism is about as to buy and publish three of my columns. strong as that for the roundness of the The columns were published only after earth. the magazine's president intervened. Moreover, in Gardner's first report L. Sprague de Camp about this unfortunate matter, even he Piano, Texas cited the transcript in Harper's (March 1991) in which the following exchange appears: Mims's final response to MlMS: Prior to the visit to your offices, Martin Gardner there was never even a hint that religion would become an issue. In the same issue of SI that Paul Kurtz PlEL: Forrest, come on, that's why I decries ad-hominem remarks, Martin had the meeting with you. Gardner has for a second time stereo­ typed me a "fundamentalist" (Follow- Gardner also knows that the Amer­ Up, Winter 1992). I am a conservative, ican Association for the Advancement evangelical Christian, and there is a of Science issued a statement on my significant difference. behalf after the severing of my relation­ Also for the second time, Gardner ship with Scientific American, which falsely writes that I am unsure whether reads, in part,

444 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 A person's private behavior or reli­ protons changed into neutrons, to give gious or political beliefs should not the required stability mentioned in the serve as criteria for publication. We footnote to the SI article. emphasize, in particular, the consen­ This, of course, was good science sus of the Committee that even if a person holds religiously-derived fiction, and not science fact. The story beliefs that conflict with views com­ from New Zealand is also science monly held in the scientific commun­ fiction—but very bad science fiction. ity, those beliefs should not influence decisions about scientific articles Ken Smith unless the beliefs are reflected in the St. Lucia, Queensland articles. Australia

The presence of this letter in SI affirms this journal's endorsement of Lucian of Samosata these principles. Although Martin Gardner and the editor of Scientific I appreciate E. F. Bleiler's kind comments American have withheld theirs, I shall (Letters, Spring 1992) on my article on continue my 25-year habit of reading Lucian of Samosata (SI, Fall 1991). I did Gardner's writings and Scientific make the mistake of relying on a American. translator's note suggesting that Lucian was influenced by Hippolytus's Refuta­ Forrest M. Mims III tion of All Heresies. Lucian was probably Seguin, Texas born about A.D. 120; the accepted dates for Hippolytus are A.D. 170-236.

Cold Fusion goose Walter F. Rowe, Ph.D. Dept. of Forensic When I read the article "Cold Fusion Sciences Chicken" in the Winter 1992 SI, my George Washington Univ. thoughts went back 35 years, to my Washington, D.C. student days. Around 1957 or 1958 I read a science-fiction story by Isaac Asimov. The letters column is a forum for views on The title of the story was "Pate de matters raised in previous issues. Brief letters Foie Gras," and dealt with nuclear (less than 250 words) are welcome. We reactions in the liver of a goose. The reserve the right to edit longer ones. They goose took in oxygen, and excreted eggs should be typed double-spaced. Due to the with gold shells. Unlike Kervran, as volume of letters, not all can be published. reported in SI, Asimov got his nuclear Address them to Letters to the Editor, reactions right. He even mentioned that the goose somehow managed to deal SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, 3025 Palo Alto with the extra positrons released when Dr. NE, Albuquerque, NM 87111.

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Subcommittees Astrology Subcommittee: Chairman, I. W. Kelly, Dept. of Educational Psychology, University of Saskat­ chewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan S7N OWO, Canada. College and University Lecture Series Subcommittee: Chairman, Paul Kurtz; Lecture Coordinator, Ranjit Sandhu, CSICOP, Box 703, Buffalo, NY 14226-0703. Education Subcommittee: Chairman, Steven Hoffmaster, Physics Dept., Gonzaga Univ., Spokane, WA 99258-0001; Secretary, Wayne Rowe, Education Dept., Univ. of Oklahoma, 820 Van Vleet Oval, Norman, OK 73019. Electronics Communications Subcommittee: Chairman, Page Stevens, 6006 Fir Ave., Cleveland, OH 44102. Paranormal Health Claims Subcommittee: Co-chairmen, William Jarvis, Professor of Health Education, Dept. of Preventive Medicine, Loma Linda University, Loma Linda, CA 933S0, and Stephen Barrett, M.D., P.O. Box 1747, Allentown, PA 18105. Parapsychology Subcommittee: Chairman, Ray Hyman, Psychology Dept., Univ. of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97402. UFO Subcommittee: Chairman, Philip J. Klass, 404 "N" Street S.W., Washington, D.C. 20024. "to ©anSBDiflag© feff An© ©§ftanflCB@ OsiKftg@Gflg)gfiO@(n) ©ff ©fete© Off flh© (FfeB@ira®(?Dffl)gfl gflianpfe* ot§@efllte @ff @oa^ ta^^ teste

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