Dowsing and Archaeology • The Onion Humor: 'Skeptic Pitied' Saddam's Giant Scorpions mrp

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Hypnosis, Airplanes and Strongly Held Belief's

PMS and Menstrual Disorder Myths

A Patently False Patent Myth

Wired to the Kitchen Sink 03 Mediumship Claims: Schwart z and Hyman Respond

Published by the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal THE COMMITTEE FOR THE SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION of Claims off the Paranormal AT THE CENTER FOR INQUIRY-INTERNATIONAL (ADJACENT TO THE STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK AT BUFFALO) • AN INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION Paul Kurtz, Chairman; professor emeritus of philosophy, State University of New York at Buffalo Barry Karr, Executive Director Joe Nickell, Senior Research Fellow Massimo Polidoro, Research Fellow Richard Wiseman, Research Fellow Lee Nisbet, Special Projects Director FELLOWS

James E. Alcock,* psychologist, York Univ. Susan Haack, Cooper Senior Scholar in Arts and Loren Pankratz, psychologist, Oregon Health Toronto Sciences, prof, of philosophy, University of Miami Sciences Univ. Jerry Andrus, magician and inventor, Albany, C. E. M. Hansel, psychologist, Univ. of Wales John Paulos, mathematician. Temple Univ. Oregon Al Hibbs, scientist, Jet Propulsion Laboratory Steven Pinker, cognitive scientist MIT Marcia Angell. M.D., former editor-in-chief. New Douglas Hofstadter, professor of human Massimo Polidoro, science writer, author, execu­ England Journal of Medicine understanding and cognitive science, tive director CICAP Italy Robert A. Baker, psychologist, Univ. of Kentucky Indiana Univ. Milton Rosenberg, psychologist, Univ. of Stephen Barrett M.D., psychiatrist, author, Gerald Holton, Mallinckrodt Professor of Physics Chicago consumer advocate, Allentown, Pa. and professor of history of science. Harvard Wallace Sampson, M.D., clinical professor of Barry Beyerstein,* biopsychologist, Simon Univ. medicine, Stanford Univ., editor, Scientific Fraser Univ., Vancouver. B.C.. Canada Ray Hyman, * psychologist, Univ. of Oregon Review of Alternative Medicine Irving Biederman, psychologist, Univ. of Leon Jaroff, sciences editor emeritus. Time Amardeo Sarma, engineer, head of dept. Southern California Sergei Kapitza, former editor. Russian edition, at T-Nova Deutsche Telekom, executive Susan Blackmore, Visiting Lecturer, Univ. of the Scientific American director, GWUP, Germany. West of England, Bristol Philip J. Klass." aerospace writer, engineer Evry Schatzman, former president. French Henri Broch, physicist, Univ. of Nice. France Lawrence M. Krauss, author and professor of Physics Association Jan Harold Brunvand, folklorist, professor physics and astronomy. Case Western Reserve Eugenie Scott physical anthropologist, executive emeritus of English, Univ. of Utah University director, National Center for Science Education Vern Bullough, professor of history, California Edwin C. Krupp, astronomer, director, Griffith Robert Sheaffer, science writer State Univ. at Northridge Observatory Elie A. Shneour, biochemist, author. Paul Kurtz,' chairman, Center for Inquiry Mario Bunge, philosopher, McGill University director. Biosystems Research Institute, Lawrence Kusche, science writer John R. Cole, anthropologist, editor. National La Jolla, Calif. Leon Lederman. emeritus director, Fermilab; Center for Science Education Dick Smith, film producer, publisher, Terrey Hills, Nobel laureate in physics Frederick Crews, literary and cultural critic, pro­ N.S.W.. Australia Scott Lilienfeld, psychologist, Emory Univ. fessor emeritus of English, Univ. of California, Robert Steiner, magician, author, Lin Zixin. former editor, Science and Technology Berkeley Daily (China) El Cerrito, Calif. F. H. C. Crick, biophysicist. Salk Inst, for Jere Lipps, Museum of Paleontology, Univ. of Victor J. Stenger, emeritus professor of physics Biological Studies, La Jolla, Calif; Nobel Prize California, Berkeley and astronomy, Univ. of Hawaii; adjunct profes­ laureate Elizabeth Loftus, professor of psychology, Univ. sor of philosophy. Univ. of Colorado Richard Dawkins, zoologist. Oxford Univ. of California, Irvine Jill Cornell Tarter, astronomer, SETI Institute, Geoffrey Dean, technical editor. Perth, Australia Paul MacCready, scientist/engineer, Mountain View. Calif. Cornells de Jager. professor of astrophysics. AeroVironment, Inc., Monrovia, Calif. Carol Tavris, psychologist and author. Los Univ. of Utrecht, the Netherlands John Maddox, editor emeritus of Nature Angeles. Calif. Paul Edwards, philosopher, editor, Encyclopedia David Marks, psychologist City University, London. David Thomas, physicist and mathematician. of Philosophy Mario Mendez-Acosta. journalist and Peralta, New Mexico Kenneth Feder, professor of anthropology. science writer, Mexico City. Mexico Stephen Toulmin, professor of philosophy. Univ. Central Connecticut State Univ. Marvin Minsky, professor of media arts and of Southern California Antony Flew, philosopher, Reading Univ., U.K. sciences. M.I.T. Neil deGrasse Tyson, astrophysicist and director. Andrew Fraknoi, astronomer, Foothill College. David Morrison, space scientist NASA Ames Hayden Planetarium, New York City Los Altos Hills. Calif. Research Center Marilyn vos Savant Parade magazine contribut­ Kendrick Frazier,* science writer, editor. Richard A. Muller, professor of physics. Univ. of ing editor and CBS News correspondent SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Calif., Berkeley Steven Weinberg, professor of physics and Yves Gal if ret. vice-president. Affiliated H. Narasimhaiah. physicist, president. Bangalore astronomy, Univ. of Texas at Austin; Nobel Prize Organizations: France Science Forum. India laureate Martin Gardner,* author, critic Dorothy Nelkin, sociologist, New York Univ. E.O. Wilson, University Professor Emeritus, Joe Nickell,* senior research fellow, CSICOP Murray Gell-Mann, professor of physics, Santa Havard University Lee Nisbet* philosopher, Medaille College Fe Institute; Nobel Prize laureate Richard Wiseman, psychologist. University of Bill Nye, science educator and television host. Thomas Gilovich. psychologist, Cornell Univ. Hertfordshire Nye Labs Marvin Zelen, statistician. Harvard Univ. Henry Gordon, magician, columnist. Toronto James E. Oberg, science writer Saul Green, PhD, biochemist president of ZOL Irmgard Oepen. professor of medicine (retired). * Member. CSICOP Executive Council Consultants, New York, NY Marburg. Germany (Affiliations given for identification only.)

Visit the CSICOP Web site at http://www.csicop.org

The SKWTICAI. INQUIRER (ISSN 0194-6730) a publidsrd bimonthly by tV Committer foe the Amrli—i. rrport*. rrvifsw and Irtfrr*. puhlishcd in the SiVFPIWAI IstjiriRFR rrprevni the Scientific Investigation of Claims oi the Paranormal. 1310 Sweet Home Rd., Amherst, NY vkm and work of individual authors. I heir publication does not necessarily constitute an 14228. Printed in US A Periodicals postage paid ai Buffalo. NY. Subscription prices: one year endorsement by CSICOP or its members unless so stated. (six issues). S35: two years, $60; three years. $84; single issue. S4.95. Canadian and foreign ordcrs: Cops-right 62003 by the Committee lor the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Pavmcnt in US. funds drawn on a U.S. bank must accompany orders; please add L'SSIO per year Paranormal. .Ml rights reserved. The SKfcFTICAI. Is-yjIKtR is available on 16mm microfilm, for shipping. Canadian and foreign customers are encouraged 10 use Visa or MasterCard. 35mm microfilm, and 105mm microfiche from University Microfilms International and is Inquiries1 from the rnaiiJ and the public about ihc work of the Committee should be made indexed in the Reader's Guide to Periodical Literature. iu Paul Kuru- Chairman. CSICOP. Box "03. Amhem. NY 14226-0703- Td.: 7 16-636- 142V Subscriptions and changes of address should be addressed to: SKEPTHAI Is-^URfR. Box PAX ~I6*636-I733. 703. Amherst. NY 14226-0703. Or call toll-free 1-800-634-1610 (outside U.S. call "16-636- Manuscripts, letters, books tor review, and editorial inquire* should be addressed to Kendrick 1425] "Id address as well as new arc necessary lot change of subscribers address, with MA Frazier. Editor. SKEFTY Al bX* MM. 944 Deer Drive NE, Albuquerque. NM 8"'122. Fax 505- weeks advance notice. SKEPTft AI iNQt !Rr-.R subscribers may not speak on behalf of CSICOP 828-2080. Before submitting any manuscript, please consult our Guide for Authors for format and or the SKEPTHAI IsQUiRiR. references requirements. It is on our Web site at http:^'»ww:cskc»p.org.'si/guide-fm-auihors.himl Postmaster: Send changes of address to SKEPTICAL IMJURIR. BOX "03. Amherst. NY and on page 60 of the (anuary/February issue. Or you may send a lax request to the editor 14226-0703 Skeptical Inquirer COLUMNS EDITOR'S NOTE 4 May/June 2003 • VOL 27, NO. 3 NEWS AND COMMENT NASA Solar Observatory Shows How to Make a UFO / Psychics Fail Toronto Skeptics' $1,000 Challenge / Inorganic Oil: Much ARTICLES Ado about Nothing? / PBS Evolution Series Wins NASW Science- in-Society Award / Penn & Teller Series Exposes Paranormal B.S. and Gains Audience / Journal Editors Criticize MDMA Study as 26 The Luck Factor Nonscientific, Unethical / New Center for Inquiry-Metro New A ten-year scientific study into the nature of luck has revealed York Office Opens / Magnetotherapy— For Better Wine? / that, to a large extent, people make their own good and bad Skeptical Gadfly Marcello Truzzi (1935-2003) 5 fortune. The results also show that it is possible to enhance tlje amount of luck that people encounter in their lives. INVESTIGATIVE FILES Dowsing Mysterious Sites RICHARD WISEMAN JOE NICKELL 14

THINKING ABOUT SCIENCE 31 More Hazards: Hypnosis, Airplanes, 'Elementary, Dear Watson' and Strongly Held Beliefs MASSIMO PIGLIUCCI 18

After a single-case history was reported in the psychological PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS literature, I made an unsuccessful attempt to obtain any Special Forces Battle Giant Scorpions in Iraq documents of the case. However, the adventure provided ROBERT SHEAFFER 20 lessons about wliy some therapists hold so firmly to certain NOTES ON A STRANGE WORLD psychological theories and disdain the critical research. I Remember Doing the Time Warp LOREN PANKRATZ MASSIMO POLIDORO 22

SKEPTICAL HUMOR 37 'Premenstrual Dysphoric Disorder1 Skeptic Pitied and 'Premenstrual Syndrome' Myths THE ONION 25 Neither Premenstrual Dysphoric Disorder (PMDD) nor SCIENCE BEST SELLERS 56 Premenstrual Syndrome (PMS) is a medical or mental disorder or illness. Premenstrual changes are a normal part NEW BOOKS 57 of life. Belief in PMS/PMDD is a result of conditioning, not biological processes, and best treated as such. FOLLOW UP STEPHEN RAY FLORA and MELISSA SELLERS How Not To Review Mediumship Research GARY E. SCHWARTZ 58 Hyman Replies to Schwartz 43 A Patently False Patent Myth—Still! RAY HYMAN 61 Did a patent official really once resign because he thought REVIEWS nothing was left to invent? Once such myths start they take on a life of their own. The Blank Slate: The Modern Denial of Human Nature SAMUEL SASS Steven Pinker AUSTIN DACEY 49

46 Wired to the Kitchen Sink The Borderlands of Science: Where Sense Meets Nonsense Michael Shermer Studying Weird Claims for Fun and Profit PETER LAMAL 52 An evaluation of Dr. John Upledger's craniosacral therapy illustrates an exercise proposed for skeptics to develop critical A Netv Kind of Science thinking and a better understanding of human psychology. Stephen Wolfram HARRIET A. HALL ANUTOSH MOITRA 53

The Museum of Hoaxes: A Collection of Pranks, Stunts, Deceptions, and Other Wonderful Stories Contrived for the REPORT Public from the Middle Ages to the New Millennium

12 The 'Miracle Poet' Case Alex Boese BENJAMIN RADFORD 54 Japanese Media Fooled by the Doman Method and Facilitated Communication 'Einstein Exhibit at the American Museum of Natural History SADAHIKO NAKAJIMA JERRY KURLANDSKI 55 Skeptical Inquirer THE MAGAZINE FOR SCIENCE AND REASON

EDITOR Kendrick Frazier Good Luck in Reading Our Cover Article EDITORIAL BOARD James E. Alcock Barry Beyerstein Thomas Casten ood or bad luck can transform peoples' lives. So it's understandable that Martin Gardner Gmuch of human culture is devoted to encouraging the former and dis­ Ray Hyman Lawrence Jones couraging the latter. To the degree that such efforts are based on magical ritu­ Philip J. Klass als and bizarre behaviors, the lack of success poses no surprises. But, in fact, Paul Kurtz Joe Nickell people can and do make their own luck. And some of this can be studied and Lee Nisbet Amardeo Sarma demonstrated scientifically. Bela Scheiber Psychologist Richard Wiseman's article "The Luck Factor" in this issue, Eugenie Scott CONSULTING EDITORS based on his new book of the same title, describes his 10-year Luck Project, a Robert A. Baker scientific investigation into the concept of luck. The goal was to find why some Susan J. Blackmore John R. Cole people "seem to live charmed lives full of lucky breaks and chance encounters, Kenneth L. Feder while other experience one disaster after another." His research revealed four C. E. M. Hansel E. C. Krupp basic principles by which people tend to generate their own good fortune. Scott O. Lilienfeld David F. Marks (One: "Lucky" people are skilled at creating and noticing chance opportuni­ James E. Oberg ties.) He carried out experiments to test the differences between such people Robert Sheaffer David E. Thomas and their less lucky brethren. Ever constructive, he even devised a "luck Richard Wiseman school," a series of experiments examining whether people's luck can be MANAGING EDITOR Benjamin Radford enhanced by getting them to think and behave in a more positive way. The ART DIRECTOR answer is yes. Lisa A. Hutter Wiseman heads the Perrott-Warrick Research Unit in the Department of PRODUCTION Paul Loynes Psychology at the University of Hertfordshire, north of London, where he has Christopher Fix CARTOONIST established an international reputation for his research into deception and Rob Pudim parapsychology and for his efforts on behalf of the public understanding of WEB PAGE DESIGN Patrick Fitzgerald, Designer science. A CSICOP Fellow, SKEPTICAL INQUIRER consulting editor, and former Amanda Chesworth magician, he's an innovative, energetic researcher wirh a popular touch. Kevin Christopher Rob Beeston A survey by The Times Higher Education Supplement found that he was the psy­ PUBLISHER'S REPRESENTATIVE chologist most frequently quoted by the British media. The New Yorker, Barry Karr writing about his widely publicized project last year to identify the world's fun­ CORPORATE COUNSEL niest joke, called him "Britain's most recognizable psychologist." This is his Brenton N. VerPloeg BUSINESS MANAGER sixth SI article. Sandra Lesniak FISCAL OFFICER Paul Paulin CHIEF DEVELOPMENT OFFICER We've expanded our reviews section in this issue to accommodate discus­ Arthur Urrows DEVELOPMENT OFFICER sions of some important new books, plus a museum exhibit. James Kimberly CHIEF DATA OFFICER Michael Cione STAFF We note with sadness the death of Marcello Truzzi (see page 9). Marcello Darlene Banks Patricia Beauchamp was the first editor of this journal. He edited the first two bi-annual issues, Jennifer Miller when it was called The Zetetic; I succeeded him in August 1977. We renamed Heidi Shively Ranjit Sandhu it die SKEPTICAL INQUIRER but kept "The Zetetic" as a subtitle for several more Anthony Santa Lucia John Sullivan issues. Marcello went on to publish his own informal journal. The Zetetic Vance Vigrass Scholar, at irregular intervals for some years thereafter. Always provocative, and PUBLIC RELATIONS DIRECTOR with a sociologist's perspective, Marcello was as likely to find fault with skep­ Kevin Christopher YOUNG SKEPTICS PROGRAM DIRECTOR tics as with paranormalists, but his goal always was to facilitate constructive Amanda Chesworth debate between the two camps. INQUIRY MEDIA PRODUCTIONS Thomas Flynn DIRECTOR OF UBRARIES Timothy S. Binga

The SKEPTICAL INCXMER is the official journal of the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal, an international organization.

4 May/June 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER NEWS AND COMMENT

NASA/European Space Agency's Solar Observatory Shows How to Make a UFO

WILLIAM THOMPSON Neither did anyone identify two of the SOHO diree items in the correct boxes, which Of the many scientific satellites in space, EXPLORING THE SUN would have won them die $100 second the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory prize. Nor did anyone identify even one (SOHO) seems to have particulariy drawn item in the correct box. the attention of UFOIogists. SOHO is a Ihe cardboard boxes were displayed joint project of the European Space in plain sight on a table behind a rope Agency and NASA, launched in barrier, with a guard watching over them December 1995 to study die Sun. Daily to ensure no one tried to touch them. images of die Sun in extreme-ultraviolet People were able to view the boxes from (EUV) wavelengths, and of the extended six feet away and take their time to visu­ solar atmosphere (corona) in visible light, alize the objects in them. They were told are made available to the general public in the past, die article is available at the objects were common items that through SOHO's Web page at http://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/hot- could be easily identified by most adults http://soho.nascom.nasa.gov. However, shots/2003_01_17/. or adolescents. Their answers were sub­ almost since day one, there have been mitted in writing on a form. There was claims diat these images show more dian William Thompson is a solar astronomer, no charge for participating. the solar features that SOHO was and SOHO/CDS co-investigator, working At the end of the UnFair, the boxes designed to study, and that diere is a at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center containing the mystery items were opened NASA conspiracy to hide these facts from in Greenbelt, Maryland before a crowd of hopeful onlookers. The die public. Occasionally these claims cen­ items were found to be a tangerine, a ter around previously unknown planets in glove, and a roll of toilet paper. the solar system ("Planet X"), but die most Psychics Fail Toronto A review of the submitted entries common claim is of extraterrestrial crafts, showed no one who had taken the chal­ i.e., UFOs. Recently, one group of UFO Skeptics' $1,000 lenge that day would win any of the proponents, EUROSETI, decided to hold Challenge skeptics' money. a conference on the subject, which was No close matches—such as calling die held at die National Space Center in In a direct public challenge to self- tangerine an orange, for example—were Leicester, England. proclaimed psychics, Toronto-area skep­ tics put up Si,000 in prize money for found either, although these would have Over die years, die SOHO team had anyone who could identify three com­ been honored as correct identifications, become used to fielding questions from mon items in sealed boxes. according to the published rules of the die public about UFOs in their images, The $1,000 Psychic Challenge was challenge. but once die EUROSETI conference was held November 2, 2002, as part of the The Psychic UnFair was held at the announced, die team started receiving so Psychic UnFair hosted by the Ontario University of Toronto for the second year many requests for information from both Skeptics Society for Critical Inquiry in a row, with an exhibit hall of exhibits journalists and the general public diat (OSSCI). OSSCI organizes the UnFair and two presentation theatres. Exhibits dicy decided to post a response. The each year to counter the psychic fairs included displays showing skeptical expla­ SOHO team started widi a purported and expositions held frequently in nations of paranormal claims such as UFO image diat was published in an Toronto, as in other major North UFOs, the purported moon landing hoax, Australian newspaper reporting on die American cities, presenting mediums, cryptozoology, and astrology. "Madame conference, and found the original astrologers, tea-leaf readers, aura Liz" gave mind-reading demonstrations, SOHO image diat it was based upon. painters, herb hawkers, and other para­ after each of which she revealed to her In their article, the)' outline die series of normal practitioners to the public. amazed customers how the readings were steps needed to take an innocuous flaw done without paranormal powers. At With so many local people professing produced by a cosmic ray hitting a few another booth a skeptic explained how he psychic powers in die Toronto area, it detector pixels, and process and stretch it successfully acted as an online psychic by might have seemed a sure thing that at until one ends up widi somediing that using cold-reading and warm-reading least one of diem would be able to claim looks like a UFO. Tided "How to Make techniques. Game boodis tested skeptical die prize money. Your Own UFO," and augmented widi a skills and knowledge. Emily Rosa's experi­ detailed explanation of die various image However, at the end of die day, when ment testing Therapeutic Touch was repli­ artifacts diat have led to UFO claims die boxes were opened, it was found that cated at another booth. no one had identified die diree items.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2003 5 NEWS AND COMMENT

Guest speakers throughout the day Howard Reiss, a chemical physicist at the temperatures range between 75 and 200 included psychologist and CSICOP University of California at Los Angeles. As degrees Celsius. In the late 1980s and early fellow and Executive Council member per the PNAS guidelines for members 1990s, Gold spearheaded a project, which James Alcock, who spoke on belief sys­ communicating papers, Reiss obtained he says also involved Kenney, to illustrate tems; magician and CSICOP fellow reviews of the paper from at least two ref­ the prospects of abiogenic oil and gas by Henry Gordon, who related his lifetime of erees from different institutions (not affili­ drilling into crystalline rock in Sweden. experiences debunking the paranormal; ated with the authors) and shepherded the But the granite did not yield an economi­ philosopher Fred Wilson, who has written report through revisions. cally viable result. and taught on science and pseudoscience; The paper examined thermodynamic Still, Kenney appears undaunted. and biochemist Larry Moran, who has arguments that say methane is the only During the interview on NPR, he said been prominent in defending evolution organic hydrocarbon to exist within he found, while working with against creationism in Canada. Earth's crust. The report also discussed the Kutcherov over the last ten years, inor­ OSSCI is now working on developing hypothesis that high pressures of 25 to 50 ganic oil and gas fields in the northern a more extensive Psychic Challenge with a kilobar or more are needed for establishing flank of the Dnepro-Donetsk basin in larger cash award—$ 10,000—as a greater natural petroleum hydrocarbon mole­ the Ukraine that arc greater than the incentive for psychics to take the test. cules. The authors also included a descrip­ entire reserves in Alaska. After the initial challenge, Toronto-area tion of laboratory experiments in Moscow Kenney and his Russian colleagues' skeptics are confident their money will be that created petroleum products from paper in PNAS is "an excellent and rigor­ safe even if they increase the stake tenfold. marble, water, and iron oxide under 50 ous treatment of the theoretical and exper­ kilobar of pressure and 1,500-degree imental aspects for abiotic hydrocarbon —Eric McMillan Celsius temperatures. formation deep in the Earth," says organic geochemist Scott Imbus of Chevron- Eric McMillan is Chair of the Ontario But the news stories, Kenney says, are Texaco Corp. "Unfortunately, it has little Skeptics Society for Critical Inquiry. written on the premise that "I have 'devel­ or nothing to do with the origins of com­ oped a thermodynamic argument that mercial fossil fuel deposits." demonstrates that the hydrocarbon mole­ Inorganic Oil: Much Ado cules of natural petroleum cannot evolve While geologists agree that crude oil about Nothing? spontaneously at the low pressures and can come from inorganic means, the temperatures of the near-surface crust of majority of commercially recovered petro­ leum, they say, is organic. And they are Geoscientists are cringing as news reports the Earth.' Such is absolute nonsense." frustrated with advocates of this alternative dredge up what they have long consid­ Many geologists would agree. But, theory who dismiss evidence of a biologi­ ered a preposterous assertion about the Kenney adds, "The fact that the hydrocar­ bon molecules which comprise natural cal origin or interpret organics in crude oil origin of oil: That none of the fossil fuels as contaminants. Such an idea is anathema found on this planet come from fossils. petroleum cannot evolve spontaneously at the low pressures and temperatures of the to the well-established understanding that The idea, heavily debated in Russia dur­ near-surface crust of the Earth has been biomarkers in petroleum are a result of liv­ ing the 1950s and 1960s, holds that the known by competent physicists, chemists, ing organisms transforming the complex world's oil is not made of decomposed and chemical engineers for over a century. molecules, dying, and then being sub­ biological organisms; rather, it forms In my article, I only reviewed this knowl­ jected to burial processes that turn the bio­ inorganically at near-mantle depths then edge briefly, using the efficient formalism markers into petroleum products. migrates up to the crust. of modern thermodynamics." The idea of finding an abundance of The newest incarnation comes from crude oil ready for the tap at depths cur­ J.F. Kenney, a self-proclaimed oil and gas Kenney's slap in the face to the compe­ rently unreachable is tantalizing. But, says driller from Houston, Texas, who worked tence of modern geologists is not winning geochemist Alexei Milkov of the Deep with three Russian scientists, including him any converts. Even astrophysicist Ocean Exploration Institute at the Woods Vladimir Kurcherov of the Russian State Thomas Gold of Cornell University, who Hole Oceanographic Institution and a University of Oil and Gas. Their paper on wrote two books on the subject of inor­ graduate of Saint-Petersburg State inorganic hydrocarbon formation, pub­ ganic oil on Earth, is surprised by the University in Russia, "I've never met an lished in the August 20, 2002, Proceedings media's response. "There is nothing new industry geologist that uses abiogenic the­ of the National Academy of Sciences about any mix of hydrogen and carbon at ory to find oil and gas fields, and that (PNAS), has generated coverage in Nature, pressures of 40 kilobar or so, and temper­ includes Russian industry geologists. The Economist, and New Scientist and led atures of greater than 800 degrees Celsius, These guys pay money for mistakes and forming oil." Kenney to an interview on National can't afford using wrong theories to con­ Public Radio (NPR). PNAS published the Most commercial drilling occurs in tinue exploration." A key factor in decid­ ing whether to put money in exploration paper at the request of Academy member sedimentary rock where source material

6 May/June 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER NEWS AND COMMENT of a frontier basin is the potential quality coveries and political struggles over one episodes broadcast so far. Each oudines and extension of source rock, Milkov of the most basic topics in all of science." claims and skeptical arguments in a suc­ adds. "This strategy apparently works for NASW holds the independent com­ cinct, yet sufficient manner given the 30- them so far." petition annually to honor outstanding minute format. "Bullshit" has already cov­ That's a pity, says Roger Sassen, deputy investigative and interpretive reporting ered a broad range of topics, including director of Resource Geosciences, a geo- about the sciences and their impact on alien abductions, the Apocalypse, alterna­ chemical and environmental research society for good or ill. The 67-year-old tive medicine, and feng-shui. organization aims to recognize and group of Texas A&M University. The premier episode focused on the encourage critical, probing works in six "The potential that inorganic hydro­ psychic medium business. There was a categories—newspaper, magazine, tele­ carbons, especially methane and a few nice expose of Rosemary Altea during a vision, radio, Web, and book—without other gases, might exist at enormous taped readings arranged by Showtime. subsidy from any professional or com­ depth in the crust is an idea that could Viewers got a clear picture of how she mercial interest. use a little more discussion. However, not worked the small group of people present from people who take theories to the for readings prior to the taping in order to point of absurdity," he says. "This is an glean information for later use. They also idea that needs to be looked into at some learned how her publicist seeded the point as we start running out of energy. group wifii people whose biographies were But no one who is objective discusses the already known to Altea in order to boost issue at this time." her on-camera success. CSICOP's Joe Nickell appeared on the show to discuss —Christina Reed techniques of cold reading and the Barnum effect. CFI-West executive direc­ Christina Reed is associate editor of tor Jim Underdown and LA New Times Geotimes, a publication of the American reporter Tony Ortega were also inter­ Geological Institute, where this story origi­ viewed. They reported on observations nally appeared. Published by permission. made during the undercover investi­ gation of one of James Van Praagh's show. Underdown displayed an extensive and PBS Evolution Series intimidating non-disclosure contract that Wins Science Writers Van Praagh's audience participants had to sign to keep them quiet. Science-in-Society Award Penn & Teller Series The March 14 episode on creationism The science documentary series Evo­ Exposes Paranormal B.S. was also well done. Penn & Teller took lution, shown on public television in the and Gains Audience viewers into die August 2002 hearings in U.S. in 2001, has been honored with Marietta, Georgia, where the Cobb the 2002 Science-in-Society award from County School Board heard arguments The raucous and irreverent magicians the National Association of Science from creationist cranks and concerned cit­ Penn Jillette and Teller are already well Writers (NASW). izens on the merits of "equal time" for known for their in-your-face showman­ In announcing the award January 8, Intelligent Design. The camera showed ship and implacable hatred of flim-flam. die live debate and protest, warts and all, 2003. NASW offered this description: The duo has applied their signature talents "If there had been a science-in-society from an agitated man in die lobby pro­ to a new half-hour television program on claiming, "If God is the God of creation, prize in Darwin's days, evolution would the cable channel Showtime, tided "Penn have been a real contender, and it obvi­ this whole place is doomed to hell," to & Teller Bullshit." The show, which pre­ otherwise normal parents and children ously still is. In the television category, miered on January 24, directs pointed crit­ who saw a "war between two different Richard Hutton, executive producer, icisms onto a different paranormal or world views" and "two different kinds of WGBH/NOVA Science Unit, is hon­ pseudoscientific topic each week, backed people." The producers and writers did an ored for Evolution (broadcast September up by a merciless barrage of aspersions excellent job of laying out die fundamen­ 24-27, 2001). Credit goes to die pro­ fired from Penn Jillette's bellowing how­ tal arguments and interviewing influential ducers of this landmark series for recog­ itzer of a mouth. This is the only program creationists such as Duane Gish of the nizing the impact the science of evolu­ on U.S. television where viewers will hear Institute for Creation Research (ICR) tion has had on society for well over 100 mediums, creationists, and conspiracy- dic- and defenders of science education, such years. This captivating series took view­ orists publicly—and repeatedly—called as Eugenie Scott of the National Center ers from jungles to islands to classrooms "assholes." I have seen two of the past nine for Science Education. to highlight the continuing scientific dis­

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/iune 2003 7 NEWS AND COMMENT

By all accounts, "Bullshit" is doing the journal Science, implicating MDMA Mithoefer and his wife, Ann Mithoefer, quite well in the ratings. According to in damage to dopamine receptors in mam­ a psychiatric nurse, are trained practi­ Showtime, ratings are up 14 percent malian brains. Reductions in dopamine tioners of Grofs Holotropic Breath- overall in the show's time slot, and a are associated with Parkinson's disease. work. The investigators' background, whopping 40 percent in the male 35-49 Although the precise neurological effects although not bearing directly on the demographic. Showtime's publicist for of ecstasy remain controversial in the sci­ methodological quality of the study, the series confirmed that the network was entific community, there is a widespread raises troubling questions concerning "pleased with the performance." Com­ consensus that this drug has the potential their capacity to conduct the research mercially successful and skeptical? If to do harm in at least certain cases. and to evaluate the data impartially Penn & Teller actually pull this off (and Editors Scott Lilienfeld of the Scientific without strong a priori allegiances. they seem to be doing just that), then Review of Mental Health Practice and Sampson and Lilienfeld question how they will have a guaranteed spot in any Wallace Sampson of die Scientific Review such an experiment was approved by the magician's hall of fame, and any skeptic's of Alternative Medicine (SRAM), based on FDA and an Institutional Review Board. hall of fame for that matter. Any demon­ detailed investigations by health advocate Efforts by MAPS and the principal inves­ stration to the media that skepticism sells E. Patrick Curry, note that die research tigator. Dr. Mithoeffer, to win IRB sup­ will certainly help our cause. was approved by die Food and Drug port from the Medical University of South Administration (FDA) in late 2001 and by Carolina were rebuffed earlier this year. —Kevin Christopher the independent Western Institutional The project was approved within weeks Kevin Christopher is Public Relations Review Board in July 2002. In light of when submitted to the independent IRB. reports of damaging effects of MDMA, Director for CSICOP. Sampson and Lilienfeld concur diat die editors found die research to be poten­ comments in the popular press presenting tially dangerous and possibly in violation this Charleston study as a possible "tie­ of human subjects research ethical stan­ breaker" in die debate over the effects of Journal Editors Criticize dards. They also note that evidence for MDMA are misplaced. Lilienfeld states: MDMA Study as effectiveness that would justify such "It is disturbing that scientifically flawed research was lacking. Nonscientific, Unethical and potentially dangerous research like According to Lilienfeld, an associate this could pass muster widi die FDA, an The editors of two journals that provide professor of psychology at Emory IRB, and popular journalism." objective scientific investigations of con­ University and president of the Society troversial and largely untested medical and for a Science of Clinical Psychology, the mental health practices have criticized pro­ study itself is scientifically questionable posed research using the drug MDMA at best and meaningless at worst, because New Center for (ecstasy) as a treatment for posttraumatic the treatment will not be compared with Inquiry-Metro New stress disorder. The study, "MDMA- a meaningful and properly blinded con­ York Office Opens Assisted Psychotherapy in the Treatment trol group consisting of either no therapy of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder," is await­ or a comparison treatment of known As of February 2003, the General Electric ing final MDMA licensing approval from effectiveness. Building at Rockefeller Center is home to the Drug Enforcement Administration. "One of the most disturbing things The Center for Inquiry-Metro New York Proponents from the Multidisciplinary about this study," Sampson said, "is that office. Located at 30 Rockefeller Plaza, Association for Psychedelic Studies it appears to be the exclusive project of Suite 2829, die offices offer spectacular (MAPS) claim that it will prove that believers in psychedelic mysticism, and views, an extensive lending library, and MDMA has strong potential as a psy­ based on work of Dr. Stanislav Grof, an space to serve die needs of skeptics and chotherapeutic drug. The president of early LSD self-experimenter and psyche­ humanists from the surrounding areas. MAPS, Rick Doblin, is a longtime propo­ delic psychotherapist. After LSD and nent of recreational and spiritual use of ecstasy use was declared illegal, Grof Nearly 300 visitors attended a mid- both LSD and ecstasy. The protocol was developed Holotropic Breathwork, a March grand opening event at the offices, developed in the Charleston, South potentially dangerous form of severe hosted by the permanent CFI-Metro Carolina, area with die assistance of hyperventilation, as a legal mediod of New York staff as well as CSICOP MAPS. The proposed study subjects invoking hallucinations. Grof was a chairman Paul Kurtz, Free Inquiry editor would be twenty victims of violent assault long-time fellow of the Esalen Institute, Tom Flynn, and SKEPTICAL INQUIRER who have been given diagnoses of post­ widely considered to be a birthplace of managing editor Benjamin Radford. traumatic stress disorder. the New Age movement. A statue of Prometheus, who took fire MDMA has recendy received national Both therapists involved in the from die gods to give to Man, sits just attention because of research published in research, principal investigator Michael outside the entrance.

8 May/June 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER NEWS AND COMMENT

Magnetotherapy— tion, you simply "wait 30 minutes. The Some wines benefit from "breath­ wine will show softer tannins and ing"—opening the bottle and letting For Better Wine? rounder fruit, as if it had been aged for some atmospheric oxygen dissolve in the several years." wine. (Decanting also helps widi that as SKEPTICAL INQUIRER readers are familiar well.) It would be like the difference with die use of magnets for several pro­ By what mechanism does this product work? No explanation is given, nor are between aerated and nonaerated water; posed therapies, including pain relief by nonaerated water tastes "flat" to us. wearing magnet-insoled shoes and purifi­ any stria tests reported. Everything is cation of water and fuels by magnetic promoted by testimonial. Thankfully, But a magnetic field? By what mecha­ treatment. But a new one has popped many serious wine drinkers have a healdiy nism would the magnetic field change the up on the skeptic's radar screen—the dose of skepticism—die only opinion tannin structure of a wine, or even decrease die acid level of the wine, as Chef improvement of fine wines using magnets. they accept regarding the quality of a fine wine is their own! Unfortunately, unpre­ Sonnenschmidt states? We get no clue. "Age your wine in minutes," pro­ pared wine appreciators may fall for the Given die inability of magnetotherapy claims die Web site that is promoting the testimonials, which come from many supporters to find hard evidence for their Perfect Sommolier (www.cellarnot.com) one-named wine drinkers, distributors, previous claims, the ability of the Perfect for $49.95. The site even quotes and restaurant owners. The only other Sommolier to "age" a wine may be equally Anthony Dias Blue, wine critic for Bon unambiguously identifiable people pro­ impossible to substantiate. Apitit magazine, as saying, "The skeptic viding testimonials (besides our afore­ My wine advice? Spend the $50 on a is convinced . . . Don't ask me how it mentioned journalist-critic) are Les nice bottle of Veuve Clicquot champagne. works, but it works!" A short blurb in the Kincaid, listed as a "Master Sommeliet" Or a vintage pon. And my friend Arnie at December 2002 issue of Bon ApMt also who does a radio show through CRN, a Markko Vineyards makes a very nice trumpets this product. cable radio network, out of Las Vegas; and reserve cabernet.... What is the Perfect Sommolier? It's a Fritz Sonnenschmidt, listed as the —David W Ball set of magnets, one acting as a "magnetic National Chair of the American Academy base" for a wine bottle and the other a of Chefs. Mehopes Chef Sonnenschmidt David W. Ball is an amateur wine snob "magnetic stopper" to cork the bottle. is a better chef man skeptic.... and professor of chemistry at Cleveland According to the promotional informa­ State University.

Skeptical Gadfly Marcello Truzzi (1935-2003)

sngtime skeptic Marcello Truzzi in 1976,1 invited as many skeptics as that there were literally hundre died from cancer on February 2 at I could locate. Sociologist Marcello magazines and groups worldwide age 67. There are all too few skeptics Truzzi was on the list, for he was devoted to die pro-paranormal view­ in the world; Marcello was surely one editing a small newsletter dealing point, while almost none were inter­ of the most colorful and provocative: with examinations of paranormal ested in exploring a skeptical scien­ the skeptic's skeptic. He urged us not claims called The Zetetic, at Eastern tific agenda. only to doubt claims that are ill- Michigan University. He came from In any case. The Zetetic was soon founded, but he was skeptical of a family of circus performers and afterwards retitled the SKEPTICAL skeptics who made up their minds enlivened meetings in which he par­ INQUIRER under the editorship of prior to investigation. Truzzi ticipated. He was so engaging that 1 Kendrick Frazier, and it has grown befriended psychic Uri Geller and invited him to co-chair our new rapidly ever since. We were sorry to astrobiologist Michel Gauquelin— Committee. He immediately ac­ lose Marcello (who then created a both of whom were meticulously cepted my invitation and edited The Center for Scientific Anomalies investigated over the years by skepti­ Zetetic in a new format under our Research in Ypsilanti, Michigan), cal inquirers. auspices. But he resigned a year later and also to sec that the new journal I am especially grateful that (1977) after receiving a vote of no he founded. The Zetetic Scholar, was Marcello was involved in die early confidence from CSICOP's Execu­ eventually discontinued. We should days of CSICOP. When I decided in tive Council. He wished our new always be grateful to Marcello Truzzi 1975 to organize a conference on die Committee and its magazine to as die skeptical gadfly. growth of irrational cults and to cre­ include both "believers" and "unbe­ ate a committee to investigate them lievers," but the Council thought —Paul Kurtz. Chairman, CSICOP

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2003 9 ^^Kjk\ CENTER FOR INQUIRY ^Summer Main Session • 2 Week Course Main Session Faculty July 6-20, Amherst, New York Barry Beyerstein is associate professor of psychology and a member of the Brain Behavior Laboratory at Simon Fraser The Psychology ol Belief. Is seeing believing? How reliable is human cognition? University. An expert in pseudoscience in healthcare, Professor What psychological processes are involved in supernatural or paranormal Beyerstein is associate editor of The Scientific Review of beliefs? Topics covered include: knowledge, truth, and belief; cognitive psychol­ Alternative Medicine. ogy of perception, memory and reasoning; cognitive psychology of religion and the paranormal. 3 credits. Paul Kurtz is professor emeritus of philosophy at SUNY-Buffalo, and the founder and chairman of the Center for Inquiry. He is Reason and Ethics. Can reason help us to make sound moral Editor-in-Chief of Free Inquiry magazine and is on the editorial judgments? What is the relationship between facts and values? What would make board of Skeptical Inquirer magazine. Kurtz has published over a moral claim true or false? Topics covered include: historical survey of Western 650 articles and reviews and authored or edited over 40 books, ethics, with an emphasis on rationalist and naturalist traditions; moral realism; including The Courage to Become (Praeger/Greenwood, 1997), religion and ethics; evolution and ethics. 3 credits. Science and Religion (Prometheus, 2003), and Moral Problems in Contemporary Society (Prentice-Hall, 1969). Practicum. Assistantships available at Center for Inquiry. Fields include commu­ nications, outreach, research, and editing. Robert C. Solomon is Quincy Lee Centennial Professor of Evening & Weekend Entertainment. Sporting & outdoor activities; PhilosophyPhilosoph y and Business at the University of Texas at Austin, and a member of the Academy of Distinguished Teachers. A special­ Cafe; music and magic performances; all expenses paid excursion to acclaimed ist in post-Kantian continental philosophy, he has also published Shaw Festival, Ontario, Canada. extensively on ethics, business ethics, the emotions, and the his­ TRANSFERABLE UNDERGRADUATE CREDIT AVAILABLE tory of philosophy.

Richard Wiseman heads the Perrott-Warrick Research Unit at the Workshops University of Hertfordshire, UK. His scientific research into Debater's Toolbox unusual areas within psychology has been reported in over 40 academic journal articles, including Nature, Science, and July 25-26, Amherst, New York $69 Psychological Bulletin. Wiseman has published six books, most A how-to for engaging in public debates about theism and naturalism, address­ recently The Luck Factor (Century, 2003). ing theoretical, rhetorical, and strategic questions. Facilitated by Keith Parsons, Assistant Professor of Philosophy, University of Houston-Clear Lake.

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Intensive, hands-on training in the skeptical investigation of extra­ ordinary claims. Faculty: Jerry Andrus, magician and inventor; Barry Beyerstein, Professor of Psychology, Simon Fraser University; Ray Hyman. Professor of Psychology, University of Oregon; and others. Registration Information

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Registration Deadline: June 15, 2003. Assistantship Application Deadline: May 30, 2003. \ CENTER FOR INQUIRY J €TYl&tlOHUl J In promote and defend I-CXMHI. RfcMCi 'and freedom o( inquin in .ill jrv.i* nl lium.ui aidt-nnr.

Outpacing its origins as a dissenting publisher, today's Center for Inquiry (CFI) movement has emerged as an educational resource, think tank, and advocacy orga­ nization. We have a bold plan to advance critical thinking, freedom of inquiry, and the scientific outlook through research, publishing, education, advocacy, and social services. RUSH DUf IP A NEW FUTURE!

As before, CFI: Branch Centers Across the United States and the World • Supports the Council for Secular Humanism and the Committee for the Amherst. New York (HQ): We increased Scientific Investigation of Claims of library space 30 percent and are completing the Paranormal (CSICOP) acquisition of a five-acre parcel for future expansion. • Operates the world's premier freethought and skeptical libraries Hollywood, California: Renovation of our • Offers distinguished adult education 9,000-square-foot Center for Inquiry - West programs through the Center for is almost complete. There, a new National Center for Inquiry-International, Amherst. NY Inquiry Institute. Media Center will reach out to — and criti­ cally examine — the entertainment media. But, the Center needs to reach out The 99-seat Steve Allen Theater will also serve as a television production facility. in new ways... tackling new prob­ lems, exerting influence. New Yorlc, New York: Our fledgling Center for Inquiry - Metro New York, now in Rockefeller That's why the Center for Inquiry's Center, will reach out to the nation's financial, New Future Fund seeks millions intellectual, and news media centers. of new dollars for program needs, capital expansion, and endowment. Tampa Bay, Florida: Center for Inquiry - Florida is launching pilot programs and Your New Future Fund activities, pending a search for permanent Gift Can Support: quarters.

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The 'Miracle Poet' Case Japanese Media Fooled by the Doman Method and Facilitated Communication

SADAHIKO NAKAJIMA

n April 28, 2002, Japan's nation­ seemed to believe her son's literacy was provide any comments by specialists such wide public TV channel (Nihon real. (A portion of the program is available as neurologists, psychologists, physicians, OHoso Kyokai, NHK) broadcast a online at http://lunavideo.hp.infoseek. physiotherapists, or special education program titled Miracle Poet: Messages co.jp/index_e.html, and the letterboard teachers. (In marked contrast to the situa­ From an 11-year-old Boy with Brain pointing at www.geocities.co.jp/Tech- tion in North America, FC is unknown to Damage. It is an episode of "NHK nopolis/9822/test.swf.) the public in Japan, and only a handful of Special," die most influential TV docu­ The Doman method is based upon psychologists are conversant with its con­ mentary series in Japan, with an audience incorrect knowledge of die brain and the troversial history.) of 14 million. In the program, a speech­ unverified assumption diat people with Sensible viewers began to voice their less boy with severe brain damage "devel­ brain damage can be cured by continuous doubts on Web pages immediately after oped" his intelligence by means of the exercise and stimulation termed "pattern­ the program, and continuing discussions Doman method (described below), "read" ing." In the framework of this method, all lasted for several mondis. More rJian 2,000 books including philosophy, sorts of different brain damages yield a 2,000 phone calls, fax messages, and e- physics, and astronomy, and "communi­ blockage of brain development, which mails were sent to NHK within a week. cated" with people via Facilitated can be eliminated by the patterning train­ Because NHK is funded by public Communication (FC). According to the ing. The Doman method has been criti­ money, it is legally prohibited from pro­ narrator, the souls of many people are cized not only by skeptics (e.g., Hines moting specific products from private being healed by the boy's poems and 1988, 1995, 2001; Novella 1996) but enterprises. However, the program essays, which were "written" with the aid also by academic societies (see the policy appears to have links with a major com­ of a letter board and his mother. This pro­ statement of die American Academy of pany mat published that boy's book, Rules gram, however, stunned a lot of sensible Pediatrics, www.aap.org/policy/re9752 In Which Nobody is Denied (in Japanese), viewers in disbelief, because his mother .html, for example) due to lack of empir­ offered for sale immediately after the grabbed his hand, pushed it to the paper ical and theoretical validation. This broadcast. Weekly and rnondily maga­ letter board, and read die "selected'' let­ mediod gives parents of disabled children zines carried stories against NHK. ters. Most amazingly, die modier contin­ die illusion that their child may one day Newspapers, however, took a wait-and- ued to move the boy's hand even when he live without disabilities and requires a lot see attitude and gave generally neutral was yawning and after he fell asleep! She of emotional and economic resources. accounts, though some papers printed Facilitated Communication is also a comments by informed people who criti­ harmful and unscientific communicative cized NHK. Sadahiko Nakajima, Ph.D., is associate procedure (see, for example, Dillon 1993; Conventionally, the episodes of professor of psychology at Kwansei Gakuin Gardner 2001; Green 1994, 1995; University Japan. He is a member of the "NHK Special" are rebroadcast in Japan, Hudson 1995; Jacobson, Mulick, and and diey are also broadcast in some cities board of directors of the Japan Skeptics and Schwartz 1995; Mostert 2001; Mulick, of the North America via cable networks. chair of its psychology committee. He also Jacobson, and Kobie 1993; Shane 1994; NHK decided not to do so widi die pro­ serves on the committee of Japanese and and Spitz 1997) and policy statements gram Miracle Poet. Nevertheless, NHK international psychology societies, and is against the use of FC have been issued by did not accept die criticisms and broad­ author or coauthor of several textbooks on several academic societies such as the cast a brief explanation on May 11. psychology of learning. Address: Depart­ American Academy of Pediatrics and the According to NHK's explanation, its TV ment of Psychology, Kwansei Gakuin American Psychological Association. crew believes diat die boy's ability is gen­ University, Nishinomiya, 662-8501. However, rhe TV program did nor men­ uine, and anonymous specialists are said Japan. E-mail: [email protected]. tion any of this. Furthermore, it did not to support this belief. They seemed not to

12 May/June 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER have considered the possibility of the a critical opinion of FC in its journal in Dillon. Kathleen. 1993. Facilitated communication, Ouija (or ideomotor) effect. These reac­ February, 2003. autism, and Ouija. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 17 tions made sensible viewers so angry that On November 14, a member of die (Spring): 270-280. Gardner. Martin. 2001. Facilitated communication: the viewers began campaigns against House of Representatives of die Japanese A cruel rarcc. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 25(1). NHK by creating badges, sticker seals, Diet called a managing director of die bookmarks, paper fans, and T-shirts in (January/February): 17—19. NHK to a committee of die House, Green, (•in.i 1994. Facilitated communication: protest. Furthermore, a large number of where the NHK was accused of improper Mental miracle or sleight of hand? Skeptic 2(3): Web sites were set up by volunteers programming. In addition, an officer of 68—76. Online at www.skepric.com/02.3. against NHK's behavior. Among them is the Ministry of Health, Labor, and grcen-rc.html. a site where academic and critical papers Welfare presented a statement that die . 1995. An ccobchavioral interpretation of or. the Doman method and F(~ are Trans­ Doman method is not proper treatment die facilitated communication phenomenon. lated into Japanese. On June 28, die for brain-damaged people. However, the Psychology in Mental Retardation and Develop­ book Objection to Miracle Poet (in mentalDisabilities 2\{2): 1-7. Japanese), was published, and about Hines, Terence. 1988. Pseudoscience and the 10,000 copies have been printed dirough Paranormal: A Critical Examination of the the end of the year. The book was edited Evidence. Buffalo, New York: Prometheus Books. by Taro Takimoto, a lawyer working . 1995. Recycling questionable treatments. against cult groups such as Aum SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 19(5). (September/ Shinrikyo, and by Ken-ichiro Ishii, a October): 47-48. journalist. The book's main argument . 2001. The Doman-Delacato patterning against NHK is diat die program may treatment for brain damage. The Scientific Review of 'Alternative Medicine 5(2). (Spring): 80-89. have given false hope to a lot of people Hudson. Alan. 1995. Disability and facilitated com­ with disabled family members. munication: A critique. In Advances in Clinical As a board member of the Japan Child Psychology. Vol. 17, T.H. Ollendick and Skeptics and die chair of its psychology RJ. Prinz (Eds.) New York: Plenum. committee, I sent a letter of complaint to Jacobson. John W.. James A. Mulick. and Allen A. NHK in the beginning of May and called Schwartz. 1995. A history of facilitated commu­ nication: Science, pseudoscience, and anti- an urgent conference on June 8 for hear­ science. American Psychologist 50: 750-765. ing citizens' voices. Based upon my report Online at http://gcocities.com/validation on the conference, die Japan Skeptics luna/html/a_hisTory_of_FC_e.html. issued a presidential comment in August, Mosten. Mark P 2001. Facilitated communication which pointed out two problems widi the since 1995: A review of published studies. program (Anzai 2002). First, diere is no Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders Nakajima book criticizing NHK and the evidence diat die boy's "expression" came 31: 287-313. Doman method. from himself Second, ihe program vio­ Mulick. James, John Jacobson. and Frank Kobic. lates the Japanese Law of Broadcasting, NHK director escaped rebuke by claim­ 1993. Anguished silence and helping hands. which says "any program must provide ing that die program was not intended to SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 17 (Spring): 281-287. varied views if die topic is controversial." disseminate the Doman method. The Nakajima, Sadahiko. 2002a. An outrageous case of The statement concludes that unscientific chairperson of NHK, Katsuji Ebisawa, is Miracle Poet. Japan Skeptics Newsletter 46: 1-3. behavior such as NHK's may yield a still claiming there were no problems in (In Japanese) biased view of handicapped people. The the program. Volunteer groups are still . 2002b. Further repon on Miracle Poet trouble. Japan Skeptics Newsletter 47: 10-11. Japan Skeptics also carried my reports on working to spread word of NHK's irre­ (In Japanese) the case of Miracle Poet (Nakajima sponsible behavior and to disseminate 2002a, 2002b, and 2002c). . 2002c Miracle Poet in the House of correct information on the Doman Representatives. Japan Skeptics Newsletter 48: There were also movements in acade­ method and FC to the general public. 7-8. (In Japanese) mic and professional societies. The Novella. Steven. 1996. Psychomotor patterning. The Connecticut Skeptics 1(4): 6-9. Online at Japanese Society of Child Neurology sent Acknowledgments www.thcness.com/article/pattcrningcs0104. a letter of inquiry to NHK at die end of I am grateful to many courageous people fight­ html: www.hcrc.org/contrib/novclla/pattern. October, and die Japan Pediatric Society, ing against NHK on the case of Miracle Poet. html: and www.quackwatch.org/01Quackery which is the parent organization of RdatedTopics/patteming.hunl. JSCN, issued a statement on die official References Shane. Howard G 1994. Facilitated Communication: Web site on November 20 that supports The Clinical and Social Phenomenon. San Diego. Anzai, Ikuro. 2002. Presidential statement on NHK's Galitomia: Singular Publishing Group. the policy statement of the American broadcasting of Miracle Poet. Japan Skeptics Spitz. Herman H. 1997. Nonconscious Movements: Academy of Pediatrics concerning die Newsletter 47: 12. Online at www. From Mystical Messages to Facilitated Communi­ Doman method. The Japanese Spcech¬ georities-co. jp/Technopolis/8515/seimei47.pdf. cation. Mahwah. New Jersey: Lawrence Erlbaum Language-Hearing Association published (In Japanese) Associates. D

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2003 13 INVESTIGATIVE FILES JOE NICKELL

Dowsing Mysterious Sites

'm not an archaeologist but, as some­ appointed him. Bond was an occultist as to render the results meaningless" thing of a jack of all trades, I have who turned to a friend's automatic writ­ (Feder 1996). Iparticipated in some archaeological ing for help in locating the ruins of two Some defenders of dowsing would investigations and digs, including a chapels. Soon "Gulielmus Monachus" object to its being categorized with psy­ forensic one thai unearthed hidden ("William the Monk") and other spirits, chic claims, suggesting it may have a nat­ skeletal remains and a bullet (Reno­ including "watchers from die other side," ural explanation. Dowsers have often vation 1981). In short, I know enough were tapping the "Universal Memory" to attributed die movement of the rods or to appreciate what a boon psychic power provide die necessary site information. pendulums to "eardi force fields," which would provide to the field—if such Bond's excavations were successful, but supposedly send out "vibrations" such as power were actually to exist. when he eventually revealed his mediods electromagnetic or other radiations. Yet in 1917 die Church was embarrassed and many dowsers work from maps, far from Psychic Archaeology he was forced out, ending the work in the actual locations, and some claim to Certainly, there arc many who believe in 1922 (Guiley 1991). receive images—including those of the "psychic archaeology"—the supposed Archaeologist, skeptic, and CSICOP past and future—like clairvoyants (Guiley "application of clairvoyance and other fellow Kenneth L. Feder—in his Frauds, 1991, 155-156). Dowsers have claimed psychic skills to die field of archaeology, Myths, and Mysteries (1996, 198)—points success in locating hidden objects, even especially in the location of dig sites and out the problem of possible prior knowl­ missing persons (Nickell 1994). the identification of artifacts." It may edge in such cases. "Bond was an expert Unfortunately, dowsers actually fare involve psychometry (in which an object on medieval churches," notes Feder, "and poorly in properly controlled tests of their is used to obtain psychic "impressions"), we know that he had access to and had abilities, as James Randi (1982; 1991) has dowsing (divination with a device such examined many of the documents, maps, repeatedly demonstrated. I once tested as a rod or pendulum to locate hidden plans, and drawings of the abbey before some gold dowsers in the Yukon Territory things from a site or map), automatic initiating field research." Moreover, "Al­ of Canada, site of the famed Klondike writing (in which spirits of the dead or though much of the abbey was a ruin, gold rush. Alas, they could not differenti­ other sources supposedly guide the hand some walls and foundations were visible ate between gold nuggets, fool's gold, to produce messages), or some other at the surface." The locations of the chromium nuts and bolts, and empty alleged psychic mode (Guiley 1991). chapels, supposedly identified for Bond boxes—aldiough they had rationaliza­ by spirits, were already generally identi­ tions for their failures (Nickell 1976). What has been termed "perhaps the fied in old documents, and previous The well-established, scientific expla­ first, best-known case of deliberate psy­ searches had gready narrowed die areas to nation for the movement of dowsing chic archaeology" was launched in 1907 be searched. Feder observes drat Bond rods and pendulums is that it is due to by Frederick Bligh Bond in excavations at simply "searched for and found die "die unwitting translation of thoughts England's Glastonbury Abbey. Unknown chapels in die only reasonable places left into muscular action," die same force to the Church of England officials who for them to be" (Feder 1996). responsible for various phenomena like Scientific tests have not proved die automatic writing, table tipping, the Joe Nickell is CSICOP's Senior Research efficacy of psychic archaeology (Feder movement of a Ouija boards planchctte, Fellow and author of numerous inves­ 1980; 1995). Such tests "either are not etc (Gardner 1957, 109). tigative books. conducted or are conducted so poorly Nevertheless, the claims continue.

14 May/June 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Here are rwo examples—one from by a Captain John Mills to recover their gate the Mahogany Ship mystery with Australia, the other from Germany— capsized boat along with the drowned Bob Nixon and Richard Cadena. Bob that involve dowsing to supposedly captain's body. However, the searchers had been in touch with Peter D'Aloisio, locate or provide information about failed to sight the reported shipwreck. the 1988 "Australian Champion" water alleged archaeological sites. Mills again searched in 1843 and did dis­ diviner (dowser) and professional water cover a wreck, which he revisited in 1847. driller. D'Aloisio had used his divining The Mahogany Ship There were sightings off and on over sub­ rods to locate what he believed was a Reportedly, a boat carrying three men sequent decades, until the wreck was last chain and nine-foot anchor, possibly hunting seals capsized off southeastern seen in 1880. It has since become the sub­ from the fabled wreck itself. He had Australia in 1836, drowning the captain. ject of persistent legend, as in these clos­ "found" the alleged relics in December The two survivors sought safety along this ing verses of an unattributed poem, "The 1992, and from February to June 1993 now aptly named "Shipwreck Coast" Ancient Ship" (Lindsay 1996): (when he was hospitalized iWuEfC OVCf **i»hrv shin- with an angina arrack) he ping disasters occurred drilled two holes: One between 1836 and 1922). turned up bits of metal; he At that site, between pre­ then sank a large-diameter sent-day Port Fairy and pipe to a depth of some Warrnambool, the two thirty-three feet, but unfor­ spied a wrecked ship, tunately the shaft flooded. lodged in the hummocks We met Peter, his (or sand dunes) (Lindsay brother Dominic, and two 1996, 2). of their friends in Warrna­ Since rhen, the legend mbool and followed them of the Mahogany Ship has to the location at Levy's challenged historians and Point Coastal Reserve. Peter intrigued tourists. There is told me he had been even an eye-catching directed to the general site by local landmarks. He had, "Mahogany Ship Replica" Figure 1. Faux Mahogany Ship" at the McDonald's in Warrna mbool, along (figure 1) at the Australia's "Shi pwreck Coast"—clubbed the "McReplica" by Bob Nixon . he said, spent about McDonalds restaurant in $150,000 (Australian) in Warrnambool—dubbed the "McReplica" ... An ancient ship— motel bills and exploration costs. He and we've heard the tale a diver had gone down to the bottom of by a waggish Bob Nixon, Australian Was forced ashore by southern gales, Skeptics' Chief Investigator. Bob, Richard Nothing left—no masts or sails, the flooded pipe shaft but could not be Cadena (Victoria Skeptics vice-president), Just timbers like mahogany. certain what was there. Since 1993 the and I had motored from Melbourne pipe has been sealed with a metal cover Will it be discovered soon along the Great Ocean Road in search of That ancient ship beneath a dune? (D'Aloisio 2000). a mystery. Only the sun, the stars, the moon Peter demonstrated his dowsing tech­ The enigma is that the wreck was Arc witness to this mystery. nique for us at the site. We took pho­ periodically sighted and lost, presumably Some have thought the legendary tographs (see figure 2) and later discussed due to shifting sands, until it finally dis­ wreck was Dutch, Spanish, or Portuguese the evidence at the Mahogany Ship appeared, leaving only controversy (Loney 1998, 20), possibly even proof Restaurant (where I had a delicious kan­ behind. Worse, it was a perambulating - of a prior "secret" discover) of Australia garoo steak). Peter showed us some papers wreck. As Bob Nixon (2001) says: by the Portuguese, rather than by related to his project, but the report on It is variously described as close to Captain Cook (Mclnryre 1977). tests of the metal traces he had obtained Port Hairy, mid-way between Port There have been skeptics, however. In by drilling—provided by Monash Fairy and Warrnambool, three miles west of Warrnambool. She is said to be 1896 a local historian expressed doubt as University—determined they had proba­ high in the hummocks, well above the to the existence of the wreck, stating that bly been from one of Peter's own broken high tide mark, in the water, between most older residents regarded it as mere drill bits (D'Aloisio 2000; Nixon 2001a). rwo hummocks, at the end of a gap in fable. He cited the use of old timbers, sat­ Not only is the dowsing evidence the hummocks. She is identified to be urated with whale oil, that had been used therefore unsupported, but much other in various states of decay, in various orientations, bows pointing west and for flooring in a house; they were mistak­ evidence renders unlikely the claim that a north. In short there is little agree­ enly thought to have been salvaged from Mahogany Ship anchor has been found. ment among the reports. the Mahogany Ship but had probably For example, while one possible location The chronology of events is illuminat­ come from "an old whaling punt" (Loney for the wreck (shown on a widely pub­ ing. Just after the 1836 sighting by the 1998, 17-18). lished map) is appropriately near the two sealers, an expedition was mounted I was fortunate to be able to investi­ beach, the D'Aloisio site is almost a

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2003 15 kilometer inland, a fact difficult to recon­ mocks, and buried in the sand," its deck especially for me, and I am indebted for cile with a beached ship. was "completely gone." The account went that and many additional kindnesses from Actually there is evidence that casts on to suggest it had been die source of "a him and others (see Acknowledgments). doubt on die existence of an ancient number of articles strewed along the From Bamberg, our little convoy pro­ Portuguese (or odier exploratory caravel's) beach" in 1841, adding diat "from several ceeded some fifty kilometers southeast wreck. As it happens, the "original" 1836 articles of French manufacture that were into the atea known to tourists as sighting was reported only decades later then found it was deemed that the vessel "Franconian Switzerland" for its moun­ and there are conflicting, even apparently had been a French whaler." tainous terrain, caves, castle ruins, and "doctored" versions of some accounts Bob and I have come to believe diat other scenic features. It was once inhab­ (McKiggan 1987, 65). Indeed, Hugh this French whaler was a plausible—I will ited by the Celts, a tribe that extended Donnelly, who claimed to have been even say probable—candidate for the into central Europe about 1200 B.C. aboard the boat diat set out to Our first stop took us to a recover the capsized whale remote wooded hill known as boat and body of the drowned Ringwall. Had we not been captain in 1836, did not with Michael Link, we would arrive in Australia until five have thought it only a scenic years later (Fawcett n.d.). place with some natural rock Richard, Bob, and I—in outcroppings. Once shown, addition to visiting the however, we could sec that, in D'Aloisio site, taking pho­ addition, covered with thick tos, and looking over his moss and a stand of trees, were documents—explored the distinct earthworks. They had area in and around Tower been added to the limestone Hill. Actually a lake-filled formations to create what was, ancient volcano crater, it indeed, an ancient Celtic provided a magnificent view fortress—hence the name of Armstrong's Bay to the Ringwall ("circular rampart"). south, the reputed site of Figure 2. Peter D'Aloisio dowsing the site where he believes may lie the Michael informed us that exca­ the Mahogany Ship. We also anchor of the Mahogany Ship. (In background, left to right, are Bob vations at the site turned up Nixon, Richard Cadena, Peter's brother, and a friend.) did research at the Flagstaff iron implements and pottery Hill Maritime Museum where we Mahogany Ship. Given the differing dating to ca. 500 B.C obtained clippings and researched descriptions and locations, however, it From Ringwall we proceeded to anchors, learning that one from an appears that more than one wreck could another isolated site, about 1.5 kilometers ancient Portuguese ship would proba­ be involved. In any case, to date there is further southeast, known as Espershohle bly have been much smaller than that no evidence that dowsing has added any­ {hohle meaning "cavern"). This is a cave of described by D'Aloisio. We also inter­ thing other than confusion to the ship­ Jurassic limestone from which cold air viewed a member of the Mahogany wreck mystery. emanates, giving it the popular name Ship Committee, John Lindsay (2000), Eisholle (i.e., "Ice Hell"). It may have had who told us that extensive negative Celtic Sites mystical meaning fot the Celts. Having results of searching with a magnetome­ During an investigative tour of Germany been an avid spelunker during my college ter suggest it is unlikely an anchor in the fall of 2002 (Nickell 2003a; years, I was Michael Link's apt pupil when would be found in the area. Finally, we 2003b), which included some locales in he pointed out that the amphitheater-like visited the local library, staying until Franconia (northern Bavaria), 1 was able entranceway resulted from a cave "room" closing time and photocopying much to explore three sites associated with the having collapsed and over time becoming material. This included information legendary Druids, the Celtic priesthood. exposed at die surface (see figure 3). from a book cited in a Mahogany Ship The expedition, on a bleak, drizzly A passageway (which is home to hibernat­ display at the museum—which turned October 13, was arranged at the request ing bats from October until April) leads out to be a novel! of my excellent German guide, Martin to a fifteen-meter-deep pit. This was exca­ Back in Melbourne, Bob Nixon and I Manner, Executive Director of the Center vated by archaeologists in 1937-1938, visited die state library of Victoria to con­ for Inquiry—Europe. Accompanying us and the recovered artifacts identified it as duct still further research. We searched were several intrepid members of the a Celtic site. The presence of skeletal out early newspaper accounts on micro­ Bamberg Skeptics Guild and our distin­ remains—some bones even exhibiting film, notably one from the Portland guished leader, geologist Michael Link, knife marks—seemed to indicate the Guardian of Octobet 29, 1847, describ­ from the Paleontological Institute of the practice of sacrifice (Link 2002). ing a wreck found near Warrnambool. It University of Erlangen. Michael was con­ The last of the three sites we visited on was "thrown completely into the hum­ ducting the three-site tour in English our expedition is known as Druidenhain

16 May/June 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER or "Druid's Grove." The arrangement of Conclusions investigations fund that helps make such giant rocks that litter the wooded area, As both the Mahogany Ship and "Druidic sojourns possible, I am continually grateful. interspersed with passageways for a Grove" cases demonstrate, dowsing does References labyrinthine effect, have inspired popular not seem an effective method of archaeo­ belief that it is an ancient Celtic site. D'Aloisio, Peter. 2000. Interviews by author. logical investigation—whether consid­ November 19 and 20. Some have called it "The University of ered a "psychic" means or not. Fawcett, Jenny. N.d. Cited in Nixon 2001a, 33. the Druids." Supposedly, the Celts sub­ However, not only is science an ongo­ Feder, Kenneth L 1980. Psychic archaeology; The jected the rock to heating and cooling to anatomy of itr.itnin.ihsi prehistoric studies. ing process, but so is popular belief. From SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 4:4 (Summer), 32-43. produce fracturing and thus create the either perspective, it is important to con­ . 1995. Archaeology and the paranormal. In "monoliths," a notion leading to another tinue to look at significant new cases and Encyclopedia of the Paranormal cd. Gordon sobriquet for the place, "The Franconian Stein. Buffalo, N.Y.: Prometheus Books, 32-46. . 1996. Frauds, Myths, and Mysteries, 2nd cd. Stonehenge" (Link 2002). Mountain View, Cal.: Mayfield Publ. Co.. 194-210; citing McKusick 1982. Gardner, Martin, i 957. fad* Cs /iuUio in tin Natnc the formations, such as "Christening of Science. New York: Dover. Stone," "Bowl Stone," "Entrance to the Guiley. Rosemary Ellen. 1991. Harper's Encyclopedia Underworld," and so on. The belief that of Mystical & Paranormal Experience. San Francisco, Cal.: HarperCollins, 470—472. the place was one of sacrifice—an idea Hester. Thomas R.. Harry J. Shafer. and Kenneth L that dates from 1863—led to one boulder Feder. 1997. Field Methods in Archaeology, 7th being styled the "Sacrificial Stone." ed. New York: McGraw Hill. 57. Lindsay, John. 1996. The Legend of OK Mahogany Dowsers eventually got into the game Ship. Warrnambool, Victoria. Australia: and in 1983 determined that the "Altar Mahogany Ship Committee. . 2000. Interview by Joe Nickell, Stone" was at the intersection of two November 20. "earth-ray" lines. These are apparendy Link, Michael. 2002. Personal communication to similar to the earth-energy or "ley" lines author (with numerous technical handouts for "Exkursion zum Druidenhain*'), October 13. that are imagined to connect mystical Loney. Jack. 1998. The Mahogany Sliip, 7th cd. sites; leys represent an idea advanced by N.p.: Marine History Publications. English beer salesman Alfred Watkins Mclntyre, Kenneth Gordon. 1977. The Secret Discovery of Australia. Sydney, Australia: Pan (1925), an amateur antiquarian. Dowsing Books. is often touted as a method of supposedly McKiggan, Ian. 1987. Crearion of a legend? A lib­ eral undcrview. In Potter 1987. 61-68. detecting such "earth energies" (Guiley McKusick. Marshall. 1982. Psychic archaeology: 1991,157). theory, method, and mythology. Journal of Field Dowsing was also used in other ways ArclMeology'): 99-118; cited in Feder 1982. Figure 3. Entrance to German cave with a 15- Nickell. Joe. 1976. Not recommended for serious at Druidenhain. For example, dowsers meter-deep pit that yields evidence of appar­ mineral exploration. Yukon News, September 1. employed their witching wands to deter­ ent Druidic sacrifice. . 2003a. Germany: Monsters, myths, and mine the supposedly true nature of one of mysteries. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 27:2 (March/ to even work the "cold case" files—not April. 24-28. the supposed megaliths. As a conse­ . 2003b. Legend of the White Lady. quence, it was bestowed with the fanciful with the view of mystery mongers to pro­ Skeptical Briefs 13:1 (March). 10-12. Nickell, Joe, cd. 1994. Psychic Sleutlis: ESP and name, "The Grave" (Link 2002). mote diem, or of self-styled "debunkers" to dismiss them, but as investigators try­ Sensational Cases. Buffalo, N.Y.: Prometheus Alas for the evidence from dowsing, Books. 11, 163-164. ing to understand and explain diem. In so and for the belief that the site is Celtic or Nixon, Bob. 2001a. A fresh perspective on the doing we can learn more about ourselves Mahogany Ship. The Skeptic (Australia), even manmade, Druidenhain has yielded and our world—a reward dogmatists autumn. 31—34. no potsherds, skeletal remains, or other . 2001b. The real "secret history." The often seem unaware of. Skeptic, autumn, 35-37. evidence of human habitation. More­ Potter. Bill. cd. 1987. The Mahogany Ship: Relic or over, the array of "monolith';" is actually Acknowledgments legend. Warrnambool. Victoria, Australia: The Mahogany Ship Committee and Wairiuinbool a natural formation—the product of In addition to those mentioned in the text, I Institute Press. geologic forces and erosion. (During the am grateful for the assistance of Barry Randi. James. 1982. Flim-flam! Psychics, ESP. geologic formation of the mountain, Williams and Ian Bryce (in Australia) and Unicorns and Other Delusions. Buffalo, N.Y.: pressure caused the rock to fracture, pro­ Amardeo Sarma, Christoph Bordlein, and Prometheus Books. . 1991. James Randi: Psychic Investigator. Detlev Luck (in Germany). Closer to home, ducing numerous faults crisscrossing London: Boxtree Ltd. each other. These faults were then Paul Kurtz, Barry Karr, Tim Binga, and Renovation work slowed after skull, bones found. attacked preferentially by seeping water, Ranjit Sandhu, along with Benjamin 1981. Georgetown News & Times, November 5. Radford, Kevin Christopher, and the entire (Indudes photo of author with foicnsic anthro­ with the erosion along the lines eventu­ pologist Dr. David Wolf.) Center for Inquiry support staff, all deserve ally resulting in a multitude of rocks Watkins. Alfred. 1925. The Old Straight Track: Its thanks for helping in various ways. To John aligned in rows [Link 2002).) Mounds, Beacons, Moats. Sites and Mark Stones: and Mary Frantz, for their creation of an reprinted London: Abacus, 1974.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2003 17 THINKING ABOUT SCIENCi MASSIMO PIGLIUCCI

'Elementary, Dear Watson'

t turns out that Sherlock Holmes one interested in critical thinking and are true (and the deductive sequence is never says "Elementary, dear science to understand the difference formally correct), then the conclusion i Watson!" in any of Sir Arthur between deduction and induction, and is guaranteed to be true (i.e., the truth Conan Doyle's original stories. App­ the strengths and pitfalls of the two of the premises is conserved). However, arently, the phrase was introduced with approaches. a deductive reasoning does not aug­ the first theatrical representations of Deduction is a form of reasoning ment our knowledge of the world (it is the fictional detective, with the consent with which one can go from general not ampliative), it simply makes of Doyle in reply to a letter by the actor premises to specific predictions. It was explicit what is already contained in William Gillette, who originally played first formalized in Western philosophy the premises. While the latter is often a valuable enterprise, it clearly is not the sort of thing that would help Holmes solve a crime, or a scientist make gen­ eralizations about the world. The type of reasoning employed by Sherlock For the latter, we need a different Holmes was not "deduction" at all, kind of reasoning, often referred to as induction. Induction is, in some sense, though Doyle referred to it that way. the opposite of deduction: it seeks to go from particular facts to general statements. However, the price to pay is that induction is not necessarily Holmes on the stage. More important, truth-preserving: we can generalize as far as skeptics are concerned, the by Aristotle, who described a simple from specifics, but the generalization type of reasoning employed by variety of it known as syllogism. From may turn out to be wrong. Bertrand Sherlock Holmes was not "deduction" the two premises "All men are mortal" Russell, with his characteristically dry at all, though Doyle referred to it that and "Socrates is a man" one can deduce humor, nicely explained this: he imag­ way. In fact, in all his adventures the conclusion that "Socrates is mor­ ined an "inductivist turkey" which is Holmes uses what in philosophy of sci­ tal" (a conclusion that, unfortunately, brought to a farm and fed regularly ence is referred to as "induction to the was given final proof when Socrates every morning at the same time. The best inference." It is important for any- was condemned to die by the Athenian turkey wishes to make predictions state for teaching critical thinking to about his future, but—being a good Massimo Pigliucci is associate professor of the local youth). Deduction is particu­ inductivist—realizes that he needs a ecology and evolutionary biology at the larly useful in mathematics and to for­ large sample of data before being able University of Tennessee and author of mulate predictions (hypotheses) based to do so confidently. So he collects data Denying Evolution: Creationism, Scien- on general scientific theories. Notice, on when he is fed, how often, and with tism, and the Nature of Science. His however, that while deduction is truth- what. After 364 days, the turkey feels essays can be found at www. rationally conservative, it is not truth-ampliative. confident that he has enough particular speaking.org. What this means is that, if the premises examples to draw a general conclusion:

18 May/June 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER He will be fed every morning at the tally, that even "simple observations" are ficationism cannot work for the reason same time, with the same amount and made possible by the inductive inference that we can never test hypotheses in type of food. Sadly, the following day that our senses—usually—are reliable). isolation. Every time we allegedly was Thanksgiving, and the turkey was Skeptic philosopher David Hume attempt to falsify a hypothesis, in real­ instead slaughtered and brought to the was the first one to recognize this ity we are also testing several corollar­ farmer's table. Such are the perils of the "problem of induction," i.e., that all ies and assumptions, and at least some non truth-preserving character of our knowledge, ultimately, is based on of them will have been derived via induction. inductive generalizations, even though induction. And yet induction is a quintessential we have no independent validation ol Having said this, I wouldn't throw component of scientific investigations. induction itself. One might think to away science or skeptical investigation Indeed, the argument can be made that get around the problem of induction just because induction cannot be justi­ even deductive reasoning does, ulti­ by taking a pragmatic approach and fied from within science. There are solid mately, rely on induction: after all, one stating that we use induction because it philosophical reasons to think that sci­ has to get die premises from somewhere, has worked well so far. Sure, but that in ence is on firm grounds as a method of and this is usually done by induction. itself is a piece of inductive reasoning. inquiry, and there are plenty of results For example, while we can establish that You see the problem. that assure us that it works. But the "Socrates is a man" by direct observa­ Famously, Karl Popper thought he problem of induction is a good tion, the premise that "All men are mor­ reminder that even skeptics and scien­ had solved the problem ol induction tal" is neither the result of simple obser­ tists do have to accept certain philo­ by stating that science does not seek to vation nor a necessary piece of logical sophical assumptions to do their work. prove its theories, only to disprove inference. The only reason we think that If such assumptions make you a bit them. This is the well-known principle all men are mortal is because every man uncomfortable, this just adds to the fun. we have seen so far eventually died. of falsification. I will eventually devote But—for all we know—we may be in a whole column to it, given its impor­ Further Reading die same position as Russell's turkey and tance in skepticism and science, but Hume. D. 11748] 1956. Enquiry Concerning drawing unwarranted conclusions from for now let us say that most philoso­ Human Understanding. Chicago. Illinois: insufficient evidence (notice, inciden­ phers ot science think that simple falsi- Gateway Editions.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Mjy/Jun* 2003 19 PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS ROBERT SHEAFFER

Special Forces Battle Giant Scorpions in Iraq

ccording to a report first pub­ The Arab reporter Mohammed Hajj a barbed tail six or seven times. Dearii lished December 17, 2002, in al-Amdar writes, "Saddam gave the aliens comes almost immediately.... I hear Joseph Trainor's UFO Roundup sanctuary, so that they couldn't be cap­ that Saddam says die mission of diese A creatures is 'to discourage guests who (http://ufoinfo.com/roundup/), a UFO tured by Americans. Nobody can reach may have crashed in Iraq—leaving the citadel Qalaat-e-Julundi at night. have not been invited.'" Saddam Hussein in possession of They say that the aliens created 'watch­ The story about Saddam's crashed extraterrestrial technology that may be dogs' for Saddam. The aliens took ordi- UFO was picked up by the Russian news­ turned against invad­ paper Pravda on January ing forces. The San 31, citing Trainor. Francisco Bohemian Pravda adds to the story physicist Jack Sarfatti by citing dubious sources who claimed passes on information that "A high-ranking that America's "great­ source admitted that est fear is that Saddam U.S. Air Forces F-16 will reverse-engineer brought down a UFO the crashed alien over Saudi Arabia dur­ spacecraft. . . . The ing the Operation craft allegedly crashed Desert Storm, and five during the Gulf War countries are trying to (1990-1991) or more conceal information recendy (possibly De­ about this fact.... It cember 1998). This was a relatively small will be Iraq's Roswell. craft, of approximately The U.S. is currently fifteen feet in diameter. reverse-engineering Soldiers prepare for battle in Iraq. It had three chairs, the Roswell craft and probably for crew mem­ fears Saddam's scientists will catch up nary desert scorpions and used their bio- bers, but they were so small as if meant for with or even go beyond the U.S. in one engineering to grow die scorpions to children. To all appearance, space aliens or more areas. These areas of research giant size. Scorpions of a cow-size! They were just about three feet tall. However, it include zero point, over-rario or gravi­ are wonderful watchdogs: they blend in seems incredible that there were no dead metric technology, which would allow widi die desert, swifdy and silendy move bodies at the crash site." Pravda leaves for a tremendous advance, allowing Iraq on their warm-blooded prey for a decisive itself an "out" by suggesting, "If no addi­ to become a leading power." arrack. Luckless intruders hear just some tional information follows in connection strange sound from behind stones, then a with the case, it may be sail considered Robert Sheaffer's World Wide Web page for pincer crushes their necks, another pincer just doubtful anonymous rumors," leav­ UFOs and other skeptical subjects is at crushes their legs; then the victim is ing one to wonder why the newspaper www. debunker. com. slammed to die ground and beaten with published them in the first place.

20 May/June 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER The best-selling horror and fantasy it wouldn't surprise me if it is) that last the Nazis launched a crude spaceship, the writer Whitley Strieber, who also writes December, the popular late-night radio Vril-Odin, which traveled to Aldebaran, supposedly true accounts about his host Art Bell interviewed Sylvia Browne, seeking military assistance against the encounters widi alien-like entities, placed "the well-known psychic and author. And Allies. The ship supposedly arrived in die story of Saddam's Scorpions on his she disclosed she is no longer able to see 1967." If this is true, then the worlds Web site (www.unknowncountry.com/ the future beyond the summer of 2003." first manned space voyage was interstel­ news/?id=2351). Strieber suggests that Saddam may have planted the crashed saucer stories to scare people away from Qalaat-e-Julundi, where his henchmen may be making banned weapons. If the messages received from the Zetas by Nancy

* s * Lieder are correct, by May "Planet X" will be huge

If the messages received from the Zetas and impossible to miss, but the government will by Nancy Lieder are correct, by the time attempt to convince you that you are actually this is published, the whole world will be staring up at the huge red object in the seeing something else. sky. And we don't mean the planet Mars, which this summer will be drawing unusually close to Earth and has undoubtedly already startled many early- Bell also interviewed Ed Dames, who lar, and it traveled faster than light. At risers. We refer instead to a supposed claims to have been a "remote viewer" this very moment, an "Aldebarani space Planet X, which according to the Zetas is employed by the CIA. Dames said that armada" consisting of over 200 heavily now approaching Earth to cause a "pole "he and his remote viewing team are no armed battle cruisers and the like is sup­ shift" and massive destruction on or longer able to remote view the future posedly on its way to Earth to deal World about May 15 (see this column, Nov­ beyond next summer." From this, Nancy War Us victorious allies a crushing ember/December 2002). "The Twelfth deduces that there will be no future defeat. But since this information comes Planet will be visible to the common man beyond this summer. from a book published by a notorious some seven weeks prior to the shift, with­ It will be instructive to check Nancys out the use of telescopes," says Nancy, holocaust denier, I wouldn't bet money Web site, www.zetatalk.com, after her meaning that it should have become visi­ on its veracity. Doomsday has come and gone to see what ble around the end of March. "Planet X Trainor has more to say about "saucer explanation she offers for the fact that the will have a distinct red appearance, with Nazis" in the item about Saddam's Earth is still intact. Some possibilities: (1) Scorpions. He notes that "Nazi interest a roiling tail full of moons, that are more She misinterpreted the Zetas messages, in Iraq goes back eighty years to the early concerned with the dance between them and the destruction is coming at a later 1920s." Supposedly the early Nazi leader than any effect the solar wind might have date; or (2) the cosmic near-collision has Detlef Schmude went to Iraq in 1924, upon them. Thus, they swirl, and look already occurred, and we didn't notice it; "and spent the next few years hunting like a dragon approaching, not a straight or (3) she may say nothing, do nothing, for what he called 'the Hidden line tail at all. Nevertheless, we anticipate and just slink away. Masters.'" In 1940, SS-Brigadefuhrer NASA will explain the Planet X complex Karl Maria Wiligut "called Himmler's But just because Earth has narrowly as any number of things, or rather their attention to important archaeological avoided destruction at the hands of a lackeys, who will natter the word on discoveries in Iraq's Irbil province. every Internet or media source that planet diat failed to show up for doom as Scientists had dug up man-made arti­ allows their nattering—asteroid bunch, scheduled does not mean that doomsday facts dating back to 10,000 B.C. Wiligut passing comet [C2002/X5], unusual won't soon be upon us. In another issue claimed to be the last of a line of sorcer­ comet [C2002/V1], Mars closest pass in of Trainor's UFO Roundup (October 15, ers called the Ueiskuinigs, which had many eons, or whatever." In other words, 2002), he notes that "Neo-Nazis, Black originated hundreds of thousands of by May "Planet X" will be huge and Sun enthusiasts and a handful of esoteric years ago on the lost continent of impossible to miss, but the government types believe that Hitler's Germany made Atlantis." I am not clear where all of this will attempt to convince you that you are contact sixty years ago with an alien civi­ is supposed to lead, except perhaps to actually seeing something else. lization on a planet orbiting the star suggest that the Indiana Jones stories are Aldebaran, sixty-eight light-years from actually nonfiction. Trainor concludes, Earth." (According to some contempo­ "It appears that something is going on in At the dme of this writing, Nancy still rary neo-Nazi conspiracy theories, the the Litde Zab valley, but it is unclear just appears supremely confident that her Aryans actually arrived thousands of what. Is Zarzi the site of Saddam's Area prophecy of doom will indeed take place. years ago in spaceships from Aldebaran.) 51?' Or the location of some Neolithic She notes on her Web site (which claims "In a last-ditch effort to stave off defeat, 'Temple of Doom?'" to be in the top five percent of sites, and

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Miy/)un« 2003 21 NOTES ON A STRANGE WORLD MASSIMO POLIDORO

I Remember Doing the Time Warp The Incredible Story of Father Ernetti's Chronovisor

arco Tullio Cicero, the great in time but was said to allow the user to Next, die time-travelers "dallied," as lawyer, orator, politician, and see historical events in the exact moment Ernetti put it, "at a playlet." The year was Mphilosopher, gave a speech to they took place, like a sort of tridimen­ 169 B.C.; they watched part of a tragedy, die Roman senate in 63 B.C. and an sional television. Thyestes, written by the "father of Latin observer noted: "His gestures, his intona­ poetry," Quintus Ennius. It was a play, As Time Goes By tion; how powerful they were! What explained Ernetti, that is now almost flights of oratory!" Father Ernetti, who was also an exorcist of wholly lost to us; only twenty-five frag­ These comments, however, are not considerable renown, claimed that the ments, a line or so each, have survived. from a contemporary of Cicero but Chronovisor was die result of many years "Have you been able to reconstruct instead from Father Pellegrino Ernetti, an of study by a team of scientists that, apart what you heard?" asked Father Brune. Italian Benedictine monk born in 1925 from himself, included twelve famous "Yes," replied Father Ernetti enthusiasti­ and who died in 1992. Logically, similar people who, he said, preferred to be cally. "Since we heard and saw everything, appreciations on gestures and intonations anonymous. The only names he let slip text, choruses, music, I've been able to could only be possible by observing the were those of physicist and Nobel publish the entire text of the tragedy." said orator in action; this is exactly what Laureate Enrico Fermi and of rocket sci­ Ernetti appeared to be very reticent Father Ernetti claimed he had done. Not entist Wernher von Braun. to give details about the machine's only that, die monk was also apparently "First of all we wanted to verify that invention. "It happened virtually by able to witness one of Napoleon's what we saw was authentic," Ernetti told accident.... The basic idea was very sim­ speeches, a Latin tragedy of 169 B.C., and Father Francois Brune, a French dieolo- ple. It was just a matter of stumbling even the passion of Christ on die cross. gian and author who had befriended die upon it." Just anodier mystic visionary? Not at Italian monk. "So we started off with a And who exactly invented it? "No all. Father Ernetti was a musician, a cele­ relatively recent scene of which we had one person" replied Ernetti. It had been brated historian of archaic music at much documentation and footage. We a joint creation, where Fermi played a Venice's Conservatorio di Stato Benedetto tuned the machine on one of Mussolini's seminal role. Marcello, a philosopher, and a physics speeches. Then we started to go backward Father Ernetti said the Chronovisor studies graduate. It was thanks to his sci­ and observed Napoleon giving die speech consisted of three components. First, a entific interest that, in the 1950s, he was in which he proclaimed Italy a republic. multitude of antennae, which were able to able to build the "Chronovisor," a true We then traveled much further back in pick up every conceivable wavelength of time machine! time, to ancient Rome. First, there was a light and sound. These antennae were Unlike die fantastic one imagined by bustling fruit and vegetable market in the made of alloys consisting of three mysteri­ H.G. Wells, however, die Chronovisor time of Emperor Trajan. Next, a speech ous metals. The second component was a could not transport people back and forth by Cicero, one of the most famous, the type of direction finder, activated and dri­ first delivered against Catilina." Ernetti ven by the wavelengths of light and sound said that he had noticed slight differences Massimo Polidoro is an investigator of the which it received. You could set it to a in the Latin pronunciation of Cicero's paranormal, author, lecturer, and co- given place, date, and even person of your time as compared to the Latin taught in founder and head of CICAP, the Italian choice. The third component was an schools today. skeptics group. extremely complex array of recording

22 May/June 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER devices, which made possible the record­ adorning the sanctuary. The woodcarv­ Christ dying on the cross on Golgotha. ing of sound—and particularly of ing was by a Spanish sculptor named This was the vision she had communi­ images—from any time and any place Cullot Valera. cated to the Spanish sculptor; following (Brune and Chauvin 1993). This photo and the one produced by her instructions, he had sculpted on the Father Ernetti were identical, except that face of the Christ on the wooden cross Jesus Christ Superstar! one was the mirror image of the other. No the exact features, the very expression of Aside from these engaging tales, however, one could deny that they were identical, Christ, that she had seen in her vision! the only solid fact was that nobody had not even Father Brune who, when the The fact that not only were the pictures ever seen the Chronovisor; the only proof monk had less than a year to live, asked his identical in their subject, but also in the of its existence was Father Ernetti's words. friend about this compromising photo. shadows and light reflections, means that On May 2, 1972, the weekly the two images were in fact the Italian magazine La Domenica del same picture (Krassa 2000). Corriere (Courier's Sunday) pub­ lished a picture which Father Sunset Boulevard Ernetti claimed was obtained No trace of the Chronovisor exists through the Chronovisor: the and Father Ernetti was very careful image showed Christ's face in to explain that, after its experimen­ agony on the cross. tal runs, it had been disassembled "At first," explained Father and "hidden in a safe place." Ernetti to Brune, "we tried to But why hide such a discovery, recapture the images of the day of Father Brune asked. Father Christ's crucifixion. But we had a Ernetti's replied, "This machine problem. Crucifixions, as awful as can tune in on everyones past they were, were commonplace in completely, leaving nothing out. Christ's time. People were nailed With it, there can be no more to the cross every day. It also did­ secrets; no more state secrets, no n't help that Christ wore a crown more industrial secrets—no more of thorns, because, contrary to private lives. The door would be popular belief, it wasn't unusual wide open for the most fearsome to be punished by having a crown dictatorship the world has ever of thorns put on your head." seen. We ended up agreeing to dis­ They were thus obliged to go a mantle our machine" (Brune and few days further back in time, to Chauvin 1993). the last supper of Christ. "We saw What to make, then, of such everything" said Father Ernetti Supposed photograph of Jesus by Father Pellegrino Ernetti. an incredible tale? "As a matter of simply. "The agony in the garden, fact," says Peter Krassa in a recent the betrayal of Judas, the trial—Calvary." Ernetti's reply was very disingenu­ interview in Fortean Times, "there is no The Chronovisor team brought back a ous: "He explained that he was aware of reliable witness to Ernetti s claims. No one record of this experience: "We filmed it— the other photo, aware that it was the ever saw the Chronovisor, not even Brune losing the fine details, of course, but film­ work of a Spanish sculptor. He also said or Senkowski, who were both in close ing it was the only way to preserve it." he knew that the Spanish sculptor had contact with him. Ernetti never named No trace of this film, however, ever carved his Christ according to the the scientists who were cooperating with came to light. The only objective proof instructions of a certain Spanish nun. him because he wanted, he claimed, to that came out of this story was that pic­ that this Spanish nun had been a mystic protect them from public harassment. ture. A few months after its publication, who carried the stigmata of Christ on The exceptions were Wernher von Braun however, the mystery was solved: in the her body and was consumed by ecstatic and Enrico Fermi, who were already August 1972 issue of the Giornale dei visions of Christ's Passion." dead" (Heinzerling 2002). Misteri (Journal of Mysteries) a letter Ernetti seemed to have assumed that Aside from the photograph of Christ, and a photo were published. A reader, Father Brune would understand the rest. which turned out to be a fake, the only Alfonso De Silva, explained that he had The Parisian priest does not dwell on this other "proof" of the existence of the purchased the photo for 100 lire in the in his article but Peter Krassa, author of Chronovisor was the transcript of the gift shop of the Santuario dell'Amore Father Ernetti's Chronovisor, does and Thyestcs, the lost tragedy. Actually, this Miscricordioso (Sanctuary of Merciful assumes that Father Ernetti is tendering one as well, after close scrutiny by Love) in the town of Collevalenza, neat the following explanation: The ecstatic Katherine Owen Eldred, who holds a Todi and Perugia. It was a photograph vision of Christ's Passion which the mys­ Ph.D. in Classics from Princeton of the face of Christ on a woodcarving tical nun had enjoyed was a vision of University, provides reasons to doubt. For

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2003 23 one thing, a number of words in the text expect (Krassa 2000). He was an alchemist and a physicist. do not appear in the Latin language Near the end of die Chronovisor saga, He, too, experimented with a until at least 250 years later. Also, says as in a classic mystery tale, comes an unex- Chronovisor. It was he who taught me that it might be possible." Was Ernetti the culprit of a pious fraud, wishing that his tales could lend Was Ernetti the culprit of a pious fraud, credibility to Christianity? Or was he the victim of a monster that he created wishing that his tales could lend credibility and could not kill, like the Fox sisters to Christianity? Or was he the victim of who started out by playing a joke on their parents and ended up inventing a monster that he created and could not kill? Spiritualism? We will never know . . . unless, of course, someday, someone will come forward with a time machine and will let us go back in time and ask Eldred, there are certain words which pected surprise: a confession. In his book, Ernetti for the truth. are reused in this text too often, clear Krassa reproduced a letter from an sign of a limited Latin vocabulary— unidentified "distant relative" of Father References which was certainly not the case with Ernetti who claimed he had met him on Conti, Sergio. 1980. "Leitera," Giornale dei misieri. author Quinto Ennio. his deathbed. Ernetti wished to leave this Firenze: Cormdo Tedeschi Editore, 114. Onobrc. De Silva, Alfonso. 1972. "Lettera," Giornale dei mis- world with a clear conscience, and so he Furthermore, of the twenty-four frag­ teri. Firenzr. Cormdo Tedesdii I'dinar, 17. Agpsto. ments of Ennio's Thyestes which have admitted that "he had not really brought Gandi, Annunziato. 1980. "Lcttera," Giornale been preserved for us by later commenta­ that play back on the Chronovisor. He dei misieri, Firenze: Cormdo Tedeschi Ediiore. tors such as Cicero, Nonius, and Statius, said that he thought he had composed the 114. Otiobre. Brune. Francois, and Remy Chauvin. 1993. En more dian half show up in the Ernetti play himself, using many fragments that Direct de TAu-DeU Paris: Robert Laffon. Thyestes piece. Since the Ernetti Thyestes were preserved in the writings of other . 1999. A VEcoute de TAu-DeU. Paris: playlet is only one-tenth the probable authors—but he could only very Kiron/Philippe lxbaud. Krassa, Peter. 2000. Father Ernetti) Chronovisor. length of die complete tragedy by Ennius, obscurely remember doing that." Boca Raton. Florida: New ["aradigm Books. it might have been expected that, on the However, before taking this as a true con­ Maddaloni, Vincenzo. 1972. Inventata la macchina average, about ten percent of the frag­ fession one must know that a few sen­ die fotografa il passaro. La Domenica del ments would show up. Here 65 percent of tences later Father Ernetti tells about Corriere, Milano. N. 18, 2 maggio. Mancini. Lorenzo. 1980. "Letiera," Giornale the fragments show up—about seven another lifetime in which he was a con­ dei misteri. Firenze: Cormdo Tedeschi Editore. times as many as you might reasonably temporary of Nostradamus. "I knew him. Ill.Ortobre. D

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24 May/lune 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER SKEPTICAL HUMOR ONION the ONION VOLUME 39 ISSUE 02 AMERICAS FINEST NEWS SOURCE 23-29 JANUARY 2003 Skeptic Pitied

FAYETTEVILLE, AR—Craig the exclusion of alternative New Schaffner, 46, a Fayetteville-area Age remedies like chakra cleans­ computer consultant, has earned ing and energy-field realign­ the pity of friends and acquain­ ment." tances for his tragic reluctance to Eddy said he has tried repeat­ embrace the unverifiable, sources edly to pull Schaffner back from reported Monday. the precipice of lucidity. "I honestly feel sorry for the "I admit, science might be guy," said neighbor Michael great for curing diseases, explor­ Eddy, 54, a born-again Christian. ing space, cataloguing the natural "To live in this world not believ­ phenomena of our world, saving ing in a higher power, doubting endangered species, extending that Christ died for our sins— the human lifespan, and enrich­ that's such a sad, cynical way to ing the quality of that life," Eddy Craig Schattner. skeptic. live. I don't know how he gets said. "But at the end of the day, Perhaps the person who pities through his day." science has nothing to tell us Schaffner most is his brother Coworker Donald Cobb, who about the human soul, and that's Frank, a practicing Scientologist spends roughly 20 percent of his a critical thing Craig is missing. I since 1991. annual income on telephone psy­ would hate for his soul to be lost "It's bad enough when some­ chics and tarot-card readings, forever because of a stubborn one has the ignorance to reject similarly extended his compassion doubt over the actual existence Dianetics in spite ot its tremen­ for Schaffner. and nature of that soul." dous popularity," Frank said. "But "Craig is a really great guy," Gina Hitchens, a lifelong Craig isn't even willing to try a Cobb said. "It's just too bad he's astrology devotee, blamed free introductory course. Scien­ chosen to cut himself off from the Schaffner's lack of faith on an tology has the potential to free world of the paranormal, restrict­ accident of birth. humanity from the crippling yoke ing himself to the limited universe "Craig can't entirely help him­ of common sense, unshackling of what can be seen and heard self, being a Gemini," Hitchens billions from the chains of cen­ through empirical evidence." said. "Geminis are always very- tury after century of scientific Also feeling pity for Schaffner skeptical and destined to feel pain precedent, and yet he still won't is his former girlfriend Aimee throughout life as a result of their give it a try." Brand, a holistic and homeo­ closed-mindedness. If you try to "I realize that Craig seems very pathic healer who earns a living introduce Craig to anything even happy with his narrow little selling tonics and medicines remotely made-up, he starts going common-sense-based worldview," diluted to one molecule per gal­ off about 'evidence this' and Frank continued, "but when you lon in the belief that the water 'proof that.' If only the poor man think of all the widely embraced "remembers" the curative proper­ were open-minded enough to beliefs that are excluded by that ties of the medication. stop attacking everything with his way of thinking, you have to feel "Don't get me wrong—logic brain and just once look into his kind of sad." and reason have their place," heart, he'd find all the proof he Brand said. "But Craig fails to rec­ needed. But, sadly, he's unable to ©Copyright 2003 Onion, Inc. All Rights ognize the danger of going too far let even a little bit of imagination Reserved. Reprinted With Permission. with medical common sense to drive his core beliefs." www.thconion.com.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2003 25 The Luck Factor

A ten-year scientific study into the nature of luck has revealed that, to a large extent, people make their own good and bad fortune. The results also show that it is possible to enhance the amount of luck that people encounter in their lives.

RICHARD WISEMAN

arnett Helzberg Jr. is a lucky man. By 1994 he had built up a chain of highly successful jewelry stores Bwith an annual revenue of around $300 million. One day he was walking past the Plaza Hotel in New York when he heard a woman call out, "Mr. Buffett" to the man next to him. Helzberg wondered whether the man might be Warren Buffett—one of the most successful investors in America. Helzberg had never met Buffett, but had read about the financial criteria that Buffett used when buying a company. Helzberg had recently turned sixty, was thinking of selling his company, and realized that his might be the type of com­ pany that would interest Buffett. Helzberg seized the oppor­ tunity, walked over to the stranger and introduced himself.

May/June 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER The man did indeed turn out to be Warren Buffett, and the The Power of Superstition chance meeting proved highly fortuitous because about a year People have searched for an effective way of improving the later Buffett agreed to buy Helzberg's chain of stores. And all good fortune in their lives for many centuries. Lucky charms, because Helzberg just happened to be walking by as a woman amulets, and talismans have been found in virtually all civiliza­ called out Buffett's name on a street corner in New York. tions throughout recorded history, lbuching ("knocking on") Helzberg's story illustrates the effect of luck in business, but wood dates back to pagan rituals that were designed to elicit good fortune also plays a vital role in all aspects of our lives. the help of benign and powerful tree gods. The number thir­ Stanford psychologist Alfred Bandura has discussed the impact teen is seen as unlucky because there were thirteen people at of chance encounters and luck on people's personal lives. Christ's last supper. When a ladder is propped up against a wall Bandura noted both the importance and prevalence of such it forms a natural triangle which used to be seen as symbolic encounters, writing that "some of the most important deter­ of die Holy Trinity. To walk under the ladder would break the minants of life paths often arise through the most trivial of cir­ Trinity and therefore bring ill fortune. cumstances." He supports his C9«" with several telling exam­ Many of these beliefs and behavior? ar<- still with us. In ples, one of which was drawn from his life. As a graduate stu­ 1996, the Gallup Organization asked 1,000 Americans dent, Bandura became bored with a reading assignment and so whether they were superstitious. Fifty three percent of people decided to visit the local golf links with a friend. Just by said that they were at least a little superstitious, and 25 percent chance, Bandura and his friend found themselves playing admitted to being somewhat or very superstitious. Another behind two attractive female golfers, and soon joined them as survey revealed that 72 percent of the public said that they a foursome. After the game, Bandura arranged to meet up with possessed at least one good luck charm. Superstitious beliefs one of the women again, and eventually ended up marrying her. A chance meeting on a golf course altered his entire life. Richard Wiseman is a psychologist at the University of In short, lucky events exert a dramatic influence over our Hertfordshire and a CSICOP fellow. E-mail: R. Wiseman lives. Luck has the power to transform the improbable into the @herts.ac.uk. This article is based on his new book The Luck possible, to make the difference between life and death, reward Factor, published in April 2003 by Talk Books. Web site: and ruin, happiness and despair. www. luckfactor. co. uk.

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SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2003 27 and behaviors have been passed down from generation to gen­ Next, diey were asked to carry a lucky charm with them and eration. Our parents told us about them and we will pass them to monitor the effect that it had on their lives. The charms had on to our children. But why do they persist? I believe that the been purchased from a New Age center and promised to answer lies in the power of luck. Throughout history, people enhance good fortune, wealth, and happiness. After a few have recognized that good and bad luck can transform lives. A weeks everyone in the group was asked to indicate the effect few seconds of ill fortune can lay waste years of striving, and that the charms had had on their lives. Overall, there was moments of good luck can save an enormous amount of hard absolutely no efFect in terms of how satisfied they were with work. Superstition represents people's attempts to control and their lives, how happy they were, or how lucky they felt. enhance this most elusive of factors. And the enduring nature Interestingly, a few participants diought that they had been of these superstitious beliefs and behaviors reflects the extent especially unlucky, and seemed somewhat relieved that they could now return the charms.

The Luck Project Superstition doesn't work because it is based on outdated and incorrect thinking. Superstition comes from a time when people It comes from a time when people thought that luck was a strange force that could thought that luck was a strange force that only be controlled by magical rituals and could only be controlled by magical rituals bizarre behaviors. Ten years ago I decided to take a more and bizarre behaviors. scientific investigation into the concept of luck. I decided that the best method was to examine why some people are consis­ tently lucky whilst others encounter little but ill fortune. In short, why some people seem to live charmed lives full of lucky of people's desire to find ways of increasing their good luck. In breaks and chance encounters, while others experience one short, superstitions were created, and have survived, because disaster after another. they promise that most elusive of holy grails-—a way of I placed advertisements in national newspapers and enhancing good fortune. magazines, asking for people who considered themselves exceptionally lucky or unlucky to contact me. Over the years, Testing Superstition 400 extraordinary men and women have volunteered to There is just one problem. Superstition doesn't work. Several participate in my research; the youngest eighteen, a student, researchers have also tested the validity of these age-old beliefs the oldest eighty-four, a retired accountant. They were drawn and found them wanting. My favorite experiment into the from all walks of life—businessmen, factory workers, teachers, topic was a rather strange study conducted by high school stu­ housewives, doctors, secretaries, and salespeople. All were dent (and member of the New York Skeptics) Mark Levin. In kind enough to let me put their lives and minds under some countries, a black cat crossing your path is seen as lucky, the microscope. in other countries it is seen as unlucky. Levin wanted to dis­ Jessica, a forty-two-year-old forensic scientist, is typical of cover whether people's luck really changed when a black cat the lucky people in the group. She is currently in a long-term crossed their path. To find out, he asked two people to try their relationship with a man who she met completely by chance at luck at a simple coin tossing game. Next, a black cat was a dinner party. In fact, good fortune has helped her achieve encouraged to walk across their path, and the participants then many of her lifelong ambitions. As she once explained to me, played the coin tossing game a second time. As a "control" "I have my dream job, two wonderful children, and a great guy condition. Levin also repeated the experiment using a white, that I love very much. It's amazing, when I look back at my life rather than a black, cat. After much coin tossing and cat cross­ I realize that I have been lucky in just about every area." In ing. Levin concluded that neither the black or white cat had contrast, the unlucky participants have not been so fortunate. any efFect on participants' luck. Also, skeptics have regularly Patricia, twenty-seven, has experienced bad luck throughout staged events in which they have broken well-known supersti­ much of her life. A few years ago, she started to work as cabin tions, such as walking under ladders and smashing mirrors— crew for an airline, and quickly gained a reputation as being all have survived the ordeals intact. accident-prone and a bad omen. One of her first flights had to A few years ago I decided to put the power of lucky charms make an unplanned stop-over because some passengers had to the test by empirically evaluating the actual effect that they become drunk and abusive. Another of Patricia's flights was have on people's luck, lives, and happiness. I asked a group of struck by lightning, and just weeks later a third flight was volunteers to complete various standardized questionnaires forced to make an emergency landing. Patricia was also con­ measuring their levels of life satisfaction, happiness, and luck. vinced that her ill fortune could be transferred to otJicrs and

28 May/June 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER so never wished people good luck, because this had caused about the whole situation. They became very focused on the them to fail important interviews and exams. She is also center dot and over a third of them missed the large dots when unlucky in love and has staggered from one broken relation­ they appeared on die screen. The harder they looked, the less ship to the next. Patricia never seems to get any lucky breaks they saw. And so it is with luck—unlucky people miss chance and always seems to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. opportunities because they are too focused on looking for Over the years I have interviewed these volunteers, asked something else. They go to parties intent on finding their per­ them to complete diaries, personality questionnaires, and fect partner and so miss opportunities to make good friends. intelligence tests, and invited them to my laboratory to par­ They look through newspapers determined to find certain ticipate in experiments. The findings have revealed that luck type of job advertisements and as a result miss other types of is not a magical ability or the result of random chance. Nor jobs. Lucky people are more relaxed and open, and therefore are people born lucky or unlucky. Instead, although lucky and unlucky people have almost no insight into the real causes of their good and bad luck, their thoughts Lucky people generate their own good fortune and behavior arc responsible for much of their fortune. via four basic principles. They are skilled at My research revealed that lucky people creating and noticing chance opportunities, generate their own good fortune via four make lucky decisions by listening to their basic principles. They are skilled at creating and noticing chance opportunities, make intuition, create self-fulfilling prophesies lucky decisions by listening to their intu­ via positive expectations, and adopt a resilient ition, create self-fulfilling prophesies via positive expectations, and adopt a resilient attitude that transforms bad luck into good. attitude that transforms bad luck into good.

Chance Opportunities Take the case of chance opportunities. Lucky people consis­ see what is there rather than just what they are looking for. tently encounter such opportunities whereas unlucky people But this is only part of the story when it comes to chance do not. I carried out a very simple experiment to discover opportunities. Many of my lucky participants went to consid­ whether this was due to differences in their ability to spot erable lengths to introduce variety and change into their lives. such opportunities. I gave both luck)' and unlucky people a Before making an important decision, one lucky participant newspaper, and asked them to look through it and tell me would constantly alter his route to work. Another person how many photographs were inside. On average, the unlucky described a special technique that he had developed to force people took about two minutes to count the photographs him to meet different types of people. He had noticed that whereas the lucky people took just seconds. Why? Because whenever he went to a party, he tended to talk to the same type the second page of the newspaper contained the message of people. To help disrupt this routine, and make life more "Stop counting—There are 43 photographs in this newspa­ fun, he thinks of a color before he arrives at the party and then per." This message took up half of the page and was written chooses to only speak to people wearing that color of clothing in type that was over two inches high. It was staring everyone at the party! At some parties he only spoke to women in red, straight in rhc face, but the unlucky people tended to miss it at another he chatted exclusively to men in black. and the lucky people tended to spot it. Just for fun, I placed Although it may seem strange, under certain circumstances, a second large message halfway through the newspaper. This this type of behavior will actually increase the amount of one announced: "Stop counting, tell the experimenter you chance opportunities in people's lives. Imagine living in the have seen this and win $250." Again, the unlucky people center of a large apple orchard. Each dav vou have to venture missed the opportunity because they were still too busy look­ into the orchard and collect a large basket of apples. The first ing for photographs. few times it won't matter where you decide to visit. All parts of Personality tests revealed that unlucky people are generally the orchard will have apples and so you will be able to find much more tense and anxious than lucky people, and research them wherever you go. But as time goes on it will become has shown that anxiety disrupts people's ability to notice the more and more difficult to find apples in the places that you unexpected. In one experiment, people were asked to watch a have visited before. And the more you return to the same loca­ moving dot in the center of a computer screen. Without warn­ tions, the harder it will be to find apples there. But if you ing, large dots would occasionally be flashed at the edges of the decide to always go to parts of the orchard that you have never screen. Nearly all participants noticed these large dots. The visited before, or even randomly decide where to go, your experiment was then repeated with a second group of people, chances of finding apples will be dramatically increased. And who were offered a large financial reward for accurately watch­ it is exactly the same with luck. It is easy for people to exhaust ing the center dot. This time, people were far more anxious the opportunities in their life. Keep on talking to the same

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2003 29 people in the same way. Keep taking the same route to and Luck School from work. Keep going to the same places on vacation. But I wondered whether the principles uncovered during my new or even random experiences introduce the potential for work could be used to increase the amount of good luck that new opportunities. people encounter in their lives. To find out, 1 created "luck school"—a series of experiments examining whether people's Dealing with Bad Luck luck can be enhanced by getting them to think and behave But a lucky life is not just about creating and noticing chance like a lucky person. opportunities. Another important principle revolved around The project comprised two main parts. In the first part I the way in which lucky and unlucky people dealt with the ill met up with participants on a one-to-one basis, and asked fortune in their lives. Imagine being chosen to represent your them to complete standard questionnaires measuring their country in the Olympic Games. You compete in the games, do luck and how satisfied diey were with six major areas of their very well, and win a bronze medal. How happy do you think life. I then described the four main principles of luck, that you would feel? Most of us would, I suspect, be overjoyed explained how lucky people used these to create good fortune and proud of our achievement. Now imagine turning the in their lives, and described simple techniques designed to help clock back and competing at the same Olympic Games a sec­ them think and behave like a lucky person. For example, as I ond time. This time you do even better and win a silver medal. noted earlier, without realizing it, lucky people tend to use var­ How happy do you think you would feel now? Most of us ious techniques to create chance opportunities, and soften the think that we would feel happier after winning the silver medal emotional impact of any ill fortune they encounter. During than the bronze. This is not surprising. After all, the medals luck school participants were shown how to be more open to are a reflection of our performance, and the silver medal indi­ the opportunities that surround them, how to break daily rou­ cates a better performance than a bronze medal. tines, and also how to deal more effectively with bad luck by But research suggests that athletes who win bronze models imagining how things could have been worse. I asked my vol­ are actually happier than those who win silver medals. And unteers to spend a month carrying out exercises and then the reason for this has to do with the way in which the ath­ return and describe what had happened. letes think about their performance. The silver medallists The results were dramatic. Eighty percent of people were focus on the notion that if they had performed slightly better, now happier, more satisfied with their lives, and, perhaps most then they would have perhaps won a gold medal. In contrast, important of all, luckier. Unlucky people had become lucky, the bronze medallists focus on the thought that if they had and lucky people had become even luckier. At the start of the performed slightly worse, then they wouldn't have won any­ article I described the unlucky life of Patricia. She was one of thing at all. Psychologists refer to our ability to imagine what the first people to take part in Luck School. After a few weeks might have happened, rather than what actually did happen, carrying out some simple exercises, her bad luck had com­ as "counter-factual." pletely vanished. At the end of the course, Patricia cheerfully I wondered whether lucky people might be using counter- explained that she felt like a completely different person. She factual thinking to soften the emotional impact of the ill for­ was no longer accident-prone and was much happier with her tune that they experienced in their lives. To find out, I decided life. For once, everything was working out her way. Other vol­ to present lucky and unlucky people with some unlucky sce­ unteers had found romantic partners through chance encoun­ narios and see how they reacted. I asked lucky and unlucky ters and job promotions simply through lucky breaks. people to imagine that they were waiting to be served in a bank. Suddenly, an armed robber enters the bank, fires a shot, and the Positive Skepticism bullet hits them in the arm. Would this event be lucky or After ten years of scientific research my work has revealed a unlucky? Unlucky people tended to say that this would be radically new way of looking at luck and the vital role that it enormously unlucky and it would be just their bad luck to be plays in our lives. It demonstrates that much of the good and in die bank during the robbery. In contrast, lucky people bad fortune we encounter is a result of our thoughts and viewed the scenario as being far luckier, and often sponta­ behavior. More important, it represents the potential for neously commented on how the situation could have been far change, and has produced that most elusive of holy grails—an worse. As one lucky participant commented, "It's lucky because effective way of increasing the luck people experience in their you could have been shot in the head—also, you could sell your daily lives. story to the newspapers and make some money." The project has also demonstrated how skepticism can play The differences between the lucky and unlucky people were a positive role in people's lives. The research is not simply striking. Lucky people tend to imagine spontaneously how the about debunking superstitious thinking and behavior. bad luck they encounter could have been worse and, in doing Instead, it is about encouraging people to move away from a so, diey feel much better about themselves and their lives. magical way of thinking and toward a more rational view of This, in turn, helps keep their expectations about the future luck. Perhaps most important of all, it is about using science high, and, increases die likelihood of diem continuing to live and skepticism to increase the level of luck, happiness, and a lucky life. success in people's lives. D

30 May/June 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER More Hazards Hypnosis, Airplanes, and Strongly Held Beliefs

Afier a single-case history was reported in the psychological literature, I made an unsuccessful attempt to obtain any documents of the case. However, the adventure provided lessons about why some therapists hold so firmly to certain psychological theories and disdain the critical research.

LOREN PANKRATZ

Imagine that a Viennese prankster, to amuse his friends, invented the whole busi­ ness of the id and Oedipus, and made up dreams he had never dreamed and little Hanses he had never met. And what happened? Millions of people were out there, all ready and waiting to become neurotic in earnest. And thousands more ready to make money treating them. Umberto Eco, Foucault's Pendulum

n this magazine, Elizabeth Loftus and Melvin Guyer (2002a, b) reviewed a single-case history report that had Ibeen hailed as evidence of recovered memory. Psychiatrist David Corwin had captured on videotape the story of the abuse of a six-year-old girl and the recovery, at age seventeen, of her "repressed memories." However, serious doubts were raised when Loftus reviewed the court records and inter­ viewed the girl's mother. Here I review another single-case

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/lune 2003 31 history on recovered memory that appeared in the psychologi­ gist I checked the records of nearly every patient who, like this cal literature. Although my attempts to obtain the facts were tail gunner, asserted improbable and self-aggrandizing claims. less than successful, the adventure provided some lessons about Time and again the stories turned out to be bogus.1 Students professional credulity and the power of theories that are formed and colleagues of mine quickly learned not to present a report by personal experience. like that of Karon and Widener's without first obtaining some verification. A Case History Report of Repressed Memory The purpose of checking a veterans story, of course, is not In 1997, Bertram Karon and An marie Widener published an directed at catching lies but at identifying and treating the article in Professional Psychology: Research and Practice entitledprope r problem. For example, was this man's arm paralyzed at "Repressed memories and World War II: Lest we forget!" In their the time of his discharge, and did he receive a Purple Heart? article, the authors claimed that there were "literally hundreds of Was he receiving a service-connected disability pension for his documented batdefield neuroses that involved the repression of symptom? Maybe the war story provided an explanation for his traumatic combat experiences" and that professionals who marital and occupational problems. These questions could be worked in the Veterans Administration hospitals (now Veterans answered by consulting the patient's C-file (claim file) or his Affairs hospitals) after WWII frequently saw such patients. DD-214.' Also, when and where was the newspaper article Karon and Widener then described what they identified as written? Whether the therapist is a psychoanalyst or a behav- a typical combat hysterical neurosis. In their example, a psy­ iorist, such critical details should always be checked against choanalytic psychologist identified as Edward Karon' treated a outside records. Nevertheless, these simple facts are almost veteran with a hysterical paralysis for six months in twice- never verified, a point I return to later. weekly sessions. At the end of this period, the patient brought I wondered as well what documents were available to Karon his therapist a newspaper clipping that presumably dealt with for his reconstruction of this case. I believed that the author an airplane crash in which he and the pilot had been injured. understood that he would be obligated to provide such infor­ The patient reported that he had been a tail gunner in a two- mation because the Ethical Principles of Psychologists (1992) man bomber, selected because he was small enough to fit into state that "After research results are published, psychologists do the cramped tail gunner's turret. The pilot, however, was over six feet tall and weighed over 200 pounds. Returning from a not withhold the data on which their conclusions are based mission, the patient said that six of the planes in their squadron from other competent professionals who seek to verify the sub­ crashed during landing, raising the suspicion of sabotage. stantive claims through reanalysis. . . ." Because the runway was littered with wreckage, the patients Thus, in November 1998, I wrote to Dr. Patrick DeLeon, plane was forced to land in a field. The tail gunner broke his then editor of Professional Psychology to ask his assistance. My arm, while the pilot broke both legs and was unconscious. letter was directed to him because Pendergrast, in preparing a Rescuers refused to approach the burning plane because its fuel response (1998), had repeatedly made specific requests for doc­ was ready to explode. However, with his one good arm, the umentation, which Karon ignored.* My first mailing to patient managed to drag the pilot, inch by inch, away from the DeLeon went unheeded, but he responded to my second plane. Although his broken arm subsequently healed, his other request by saying 1) that he thought my first letter was merely arm was thereafter paralyzed. Furthermore, he had no con­ a "FYI," needing no reply; 2) that I should write ditectly to scious memory of the crash or of saving his friend. He was Karon; and 3) that he believed that the ethical code about shar­ reported to have repressed it. ing data applied only to "empirical data." I disagreed about the After recovering his memory in an emotional therapy ses­ empirical data limitation on the grounds that the spirit of the sion, the patient regained partial movement of his paralyzed code has always been to promote the science of psychology by arm for the first time. Unfortunately, the secondary gains from allowing open examination of "substantive claims," not merely this paralyzed arm were not sufficiently resolved for him to to recheck t-tests. return to work until after another year of psychoanalytic psy­ Subsequently I wrote to Karon. After he failed to respond to 2 chotherapy. The authors concluded that current controversies my second request, I provided all my correspondence to the concerning repressed memories "are always discussed without Ethics Office of the American Psychological Association for an reference to this well-documented body of data." They encour­ opinion. Dr. Dolph M. Printz, the acting director of the Office aged mental health professionals to "remember their past in of Ethics, responded by saying that Dr. Gary R. VandenBos was order to be effective in die real world." In ways they did not quite familiar with my concerns, and he had summarized his intend, this case history sparked many memories for me knowledge of the issues in an enclosed memorandum. Printz because I was well acquainted with stories like these and this trusted that the careful review would assure me "that no further style of therapy. action is indicated in this matter." A Search for More Information Surprisingly, the enclosed memorandum by VandenBos was merely a discussion of airplanes. This was clearly not my pri­ Events in war are sometimes stranger than fiction. I know, mary concern and was mentioned only parenthetically in the because in my twenty-five years as a Veterans Affairs psycholo- last paragraph of my letter. The airplane issue had been raised by software engineer Loren Pankratz is a Clinical Professor in the Department of James Giglio, in one of the four responses to the Karon article. Psychiatry, Oregon Health Sciences University Portland, Oregon. Giglio (1998) claimed that no such airplane as the one

32 May/June 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER described in the article was ever flown in the European theatre about qualifying planes "he then tried to become technical." of war, namely a two-man bomber with a tail gunner in a sep- Even more damaging, they still failed to mention die name of arate tail turret. I wrote Giglio after I read his article, and he any specific aircraft that they believed might qualify. And provided me with copies of his correspondence with Karon and although they never acknowledged their article's factual defi- Widener. Both kept insisting that he was wrong. Widener ciencies, they nonetheless vigorously defended die truth of finally said diat she was glad die veteran was no longer around their story. to read Giglios misguided comments that "completely dis- Strangely, the VandenBos memorandum focused exclusively counted his experience as a soldier and patriot of this country on the airplane issue. He said that he had formally sought input and of democracy." Karon had also suggested several planes, from the editor of a WWII aviation magazine who provided which Giglio showed as not meeting their criteria. Karon several examples: the Mosquito A-20a and A-26, the Douglas finally insisted that the Rand McNally Encyclopedia of Military SBD Dauntless, the Curtis SB2C Helldiver, the British Aircraft (Angelucci 1981) contained bombers that qualified. deHavilland Mosquito, the Douglas A-20 Havoc, the Douglas Giglio then asked for specific page numbers because he found A-26B Invader, and the Bristol Beaufighter. However, Giglio nothing mat fit. When Karon responded, "I do not have time had already pointed out why these specific planes failed to meet to teach you how to read," their correspondence ended.'' the criteria. The Mosquito A-20 and A-26 did not have a sep- The authors' inability to name an aircraft that fit the arate tail gunner; me Douglas SBD Dauntless and Curtiss patient's description seriously damaged the credibility of their Helldiver were carrier-based dive bombers deployed exclusively story. Yet in Karon and Widener's (1998) response to the cri- in the Pacific; the British deHavilland Mosquito, Douglas A-20 tiques of their article, they said that when they informed Giglio Havoc, and Douglas A-26B Invader each had no tail gunner or

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2003 33 tail turret; the British Beaufighter was a night fighter, not a he stated, "The defense has no obligation to tell die truth." bomber, and the only models with separate rear-facing turrets The only hint of a concession in the Karon and Widener (not in the tail) were non-operational prototypes. article was an acknowledgment that hypnosis and pentathol VandenBos opined that any distortions of the patient's procedures can be leading and suggestive. Further, "Remem­ memory were a "side detail" and not the essential determinant bered events may or may not be literally true," but then, "People of accuracy and validity of the clinical discussion. Memory dis­ in or out of therapy have memories of events that never occur as tortion was the issue, and it was difficult for me to dismiss as well as memories of events that did occur, but this fact has noth­ ing to do with our article." This admission, it seems to me, suggests the possibility of a We applauded each theory knowing that mistaken story by a tail gunner. I can think of several options other than lying and next month our fickle devotion would be malingering to explain die onset of hysteri­ overwhelmed by a new series of fascinating cal symptoms and recovered memories. They were the ones who brought up the case histories. patient's secondary gain—a mark of malin­ gering. Why does a skeptical attitude about repression evoke such distress in some therapists? "side detail" the obvious importance of investigating the patient's service record, clinical treatment notes, and any other Remembering the Lessons data that could "verify the substantive claims" of the article. Then I discovered that VandenBos had co-authored a book I agree with Karon that the lessons of WWII seem to have been with Karon. VanderBos was caught in a conflict of interest. Any forgotten but "need to be remembered in order for therapists to be effective in the real world." He was also correct in stating hope of finding the facts behind this case were now blocked, that few living clinical psychologists were working in the VA in and it was clear that many issues remained unresolved. the 1940s. However, my generation was trained by them. For Boiling Controversy example, I interacted several times with Jack Watkins who was at the Portland Veterans Administration before moving to the About a year after the article appeared, Professional Psychology University of Montana where he continued his work in hypno­ published four critical reviews and a response by Karon and sis and in the multiple personality disorder movement. Further, Widener. The Giglio article has already been discussed. The in 1974,1 was president of the Portland Academy of Hypnosis, review by Lilienfeld and Loftus (1998) was about twice as long where month after month speakers shared dramatic case histo­ as the original Karon article because the authors reviewed ries that demonstrated the "truth" of their particular theories. a broad spectrum of research concerning the evidence for repression, the role of hypnosis and sodium pentathol in the These therapists promoted a vast array of explanations for recovery of memories, problems with the specific case example, the development of symptoms. They focused on childhood and the appropriate use of single case-history reports. Piper events, anniversary reactions, blocked emotions, sexual issues, (1998) focused on the problem of definitions that confuse dis­ double binds, internal conflicts, hidden trauma, and, of course, cussions of repression, and he also reviewed many of the papers repressed memories. We applauded each theory knowing that cited by Karon and Widener that they believed supported the next month our fickle devotion would be overwhelmed by a notion of repression and amnesia. Finally, die article by new series of fascinating case histories. Why did each therapist Pendergrast (1998) described many examples of recovered war have a different explanation about the cause of symptoms? traumas that were false. In 1784, the French commission investigating mesmerism The response by Karon and Widener (1998) reflects the bit­ found that subjects appeared to know when and where they ter divide that infects the issue of repressed memories. They should have a convulsion only if the mesmerist was present to began their article with another case history—this one about a provide the cues. From the very beginning, patients unwit­ rape. "Would any serious clinician tell her she is lying because tingly confirmed the theories of their therapists. For example, there is no such thing as repression?" These reviewers, they Zerffi (1871) illustrated the extent of this problem when he charge, are dismissing all WW II patients who suffered trauma said, "Hundreds of trustworthy witnesses have asserted facts and repression as malingerers. which we cannot understand" (p. 67), namely that somnam­ bulists exhibit clairvoyant powers. For example, Grimes (1850) The only point of their article, they insist, was to show that noted that a phrenologist could ask a mesmerized subject to repression exists. "Every psychodynamic therapist sees it. The identify the part of her brain where she kept secrets, and she only way he or she could not see it is by assuming that what die would place her finger exactly on the organ of Secretiveness. patient says are lies." Although they put up a brave fight over Similarly, she could identify other regions of emotions without the research, the bottom line for Karon and Widener was that any understanding of phrenological science. Then, Grimes dis­ clinicians know repression exists, and "psychologists who dis­ covered that phrenologists with different cranial maps obtained pute die conclusive existence of repression do not do therapy." information from subjects that confirmed their own individual They implied that those who deny repression are academics theories. He concluded: "When the subject, the operator, and who make money by testifying for the defense in court cases, all concerned, believe in any peculiar notion, the experiments and they agreed widi famous attorney Alan Dershowitz when

34 May/June 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER will not contradict that notion, but will confirm it, howeveever diagnostic manual as a natural adaptation to extraordinary absurd it may be" (p. 209). adverse situations (Yehuda et al. 1995). The French neurologist Jean-Martin Charcot confirmed his In 1983, Landy Sparr and I were the first to show how easily own theories in a similar manner when he studied hysteria usinsing this new disorder was feigned. However, PTSD became a wildly hypnosis, a process described as "one of the most significant misnis-­ popular research enterprise. But in their enthusiasm, most understandings in the entire history of medicine" (Webster 1995>95, researchers failed to check their subjects' claims or consider more p. 72). Charcot was Freud's most significant mentor, and this mundane explanations for their symptoms.' Like patients who problematic methodology was passed on to die generation of psychiatrists who were con­ vinced that the conversion disorders of WW I servicemen were caused by repressed battle The majority of people exposed to toxic events do trauma. Like Karons patient, rfiey were often not experience any long-term disorder, and delayed treated with hypnotic abreaction in which the patient was expected to re-live the responses are extremely rare. moment of trauma with unrestrained emo­ tions. They believed that memories revealed during abreaction were completely true to the original experi>eri­- told their therapists what they wanted to hear, research subjects ence, and if not, for those who wondered, the process itself was validated experimenters' hypotheses (Orne 1962). probably necessary for healing. During the twenty years that I have refereed papers sub- For example, Hadfield (1940) believed that most of the sol­- mitted to the American Journal of Psychiatry, I discovered that diers with traumatic neuroses had repressed experiences; of many authors merely gathered evidence for what they believed being buried or blasted by an explosion. He used hypno-analyaly- was true about symptoms and the underlying trauma, sis to recover these memories, although sometimes "considerier-­ Fortunately, editors usually understood my skepticism, but it able patience and persistence are required to recover the expericri-­ was of great help when Southwick and colleagues (1997) ence" (p. 142). In such cases, he recommended telling the showed that the memories of veterans of Operation Desert patient that he will not leave the room until he has recovereTed Storm were highly inconsistent when questioned one month the experience. "Such persistence nearly always succeeds." after combat and then again two years later. Most disturbing But from WWII on, the number of psychotherapeutiiitic was the amplification of recall of traumatic events. Subjects strategies exploded. This was also true for hypnotic interven'en­- changed their reports to say that they had seen others killed or tions, and many of those innovators traveled through the wounded, that their unit had been ambushed, or that they had informal speaking circuit of hypnosis societies that I menien­- encountered booby traps or mines. The authors concluded tioned above. Martin Orne (1959) provided some insight intnto that "If memories of combat are inconsistent, then the rela- why this proliferation was happening. Through a series of diaiia-­ tionship between PTSD and combat exposure would be a ten- bolically clever experiments, he showed that the hypnotiotic uous one." An accompanying editorial frankly admitted that interaction is such a powerful experience for therapist and subub-­ no one now knows what posttraumatic stress disorder really is ject that both remain unaware of how certain implicit cueues (Hales and Zarzick 1997). guide their process. The subject integrates the expectationss of But careful research testing competing explanations has the hypnotist in an attempt to be cooperative, while modifyify-­ shown us how far we have drifted off course. The vast majority ing his own story to fit that expectation. Of course, in somimce of people exposed to toxic events do not subsequently experi- situations the patient's story might be true. However, confabab-­ ence any long-term disorder, and delayed responses are ulated reports can be "extremely deceiving, as they represenit a extremely rare. Both children and adults, it turns out, are amaz- subjectively real situation, and, therefore, arc produced witrith ingly resilient in the long run to trauma and unfavorable envi­ complete sincerity" (Orne 1951, 221). ronments (Bowman 1997; Masten 2001). Pre-existing personal Unaware of how much they are influencing each other, bototh vulnerabilities are more predictive of outcome than an event, therapist and subject become convinced that their theoryf iiss just as the DSM-I suggested (Yehuda et al. 1995). Finally, B.C. true, with the result that they will likely come to view researcrch Burkett and Glenna Whitley (1998) provided compelling evi- as contrived or irrelevant to their dynamic experiencelce. dence that Vietnam veterans are better educated, have a lower Checking the facts seems irrelevant, even confrontational or suicide rate, have a higher employment record, are underrepre- counter-therapeutic. This powerful subjective experience can sented in prison populations, and have a lower homelessncss rate lead both panics into false beliefs (Pankratz 2002). than those who did not serve. They suggested that the VA is not During the Vietnam war, conversion disorders were seldoom treating posttraumatic stress disorder; they are teaching it. encountered as repressed memories, and abreactivc treatment:nts became a quaint historical artifact. The effects of trauma wer,ere Conclusions now expressed as symptoms of avoidance and intrusion, witrirh In 1781, Mesmer fled Paris in disappointment and fury because flashbacks as a marker." Because this war was unpopular, somme the commission appointed to investigate him was not interested suggested that most who participated would have symptomims in the personal experiences of his patients but in whether there independent of any constitutional vulnerability—if not nowow, was evidence for his underlying assumption of animal magnet - then delayed. Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) entered the ism. In the 1880s, Charcot ordered doubters out of his hospital

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2003 35 when they questioned the value of his Tuesday lectures. In the References twentieth century, psychiatrists disdained the idea of checking American Psychological Association. 1992. Ethical principles of psychologists and the reality of abreactions and self-reported trauma. As a result, code of conduct. American Psychologist 47: 1597-1611. Angclucci. E 1981. The Rand McNally Encyclopedia of Military Aircraft, 1914-1980. posttraumatic stress disorder disability pensions may now cost Chicago: Rand McNally. taxpayers $2 billion a year, and we must face the possibility that Bowman, M. 1997. Individual differences in posttraumatic response. Mahwah N.J.: two decades of posttraumatic stress disorder research, all based Erlbaum. Burkett, B.C. and G. Whitley. 1998. Stolen Valor. Dallas: Verity Press. on dubious self-reports, may be useless. Giglio, J.C. 1998. A comment on World War II repression. Professional /Psychology: In the single-case history report investigated by Loftus, small Research and Practice 29: 470. Grimes, J.S. 1850. Edterology, and tlxphreno-philosophy of mesmerism and magic elo­ inconsistencies were ignored by professionals who were over­ quence. Boston/London: James Munroe/Edward T Whitfield. whelmingly convinced by the emotional response of the subject. Hadfield, J.A. 1940. Treatment by suggestion and hypno-analysis. Chapter in E When Loftus looked for all the facts, she became the object of Miller, The Neuroses in War. London: Macmillan. Hales, R.E, and D.F. Zatzick. 1997. What is PTSD? American Journal of Psychiatry some serious harassment (Tavris 2002). James Giglio was 154: 143-144. accused of being unpatriotic when he asked for information, Jones, E et al.. in press. Flashbacks and post-traumatic stress disorder. The genesis and the American Psychological Association would rather talk to of a twentieth-century disorder. British Journal of Psychiatry. Karon, B„ and A. Widener. 1997. Repressed memories and World War II: Lest we aviation experts than acknowledge whether or not any docu­ forget! Professional Psychology: Research and Practice 26: 338-340. ments support a repressed memory report.9 . 1998. Repressed memories: The real story. Professional Psychology: Research and Practice 29: 482-487. From these generations of neglected critical questioning Kulka. RJ\.. el al. 1988. Tmuma and the Vietnam War Generation. New York: emerged an eagerness to treat recovered memories, multiple Brunner/Mazel. personality disorders, and traumas of ever)' sort. The disheart­ Lilienfeld, S.O. 2002. When worlds collide. American Psychologist'57 : 176-188. Lilienfeld. S.O., and EE Loftus. 1998. Repressed memories and World War II: ening news is that we have yet to discover an effective treatment Some cautionary notes. Professional Psychology: Research and for those who really suffer from chronic posttraumatic stress Practice 29: 471-475. Litz, B.T., et al. 2002. Early intervention for trauma: current status and future direc­ (Shalev et al. 1996) or from the acute effects of trauma. Litz tions. Clinical Psychology: Science and Practice 9: 112-34. and colleagues (2002) reviewed six studies of early interven­ Loftus, EE, and M.J. Guyer. 2002a. Who abused Jane Doc? The hazards of the sin­ tions for acute trauma that they judged as having sound gle case history Part 1. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 26(3): 24-32. 2002b. Who abused Jane Doc? The hazards of the single case history Pan methodology. In all instances, psychological debriefing failed to 2. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 26(4): 37-40. promote change to a greater degree than no intervention at all, Masten, A. 2001. Ordinary magic: Resilience processes in development. American and in two studies the symptoms of treated victims became Psychologist 56: 227-38. Orne, M.T 1951. The mechanism of hypnotic age regression: An experimental worse over time. While society demands that mental health study. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology 46: 213-225. professions help, sufferers are likely to be better off relying on . The nature of hypnosis: Artifact and essence. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology 58: 277-298. their own natural support systems. . 1962. On the social psychology of the psychological experiment: With par­ I believe psychologists have a responsibility to provide safe ticular reference to demand characteristics and their implications. American and effective treatments to those who use our services. Karon Psychologist 17: 776-783. Pankratz, L 1979. Procedures for the assessment and treatment of functional sen­ and I agree on one thing: Mental health professionals need to sory deficits. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 47: 409-410. remember their past in order to be effective in the real world. . 1990. Continued appearance of factitious posttraumatic stress disorder. American Journal of Psychiatry 147: 811-812. Notes . 1998. Patients Who Deceive. Springfield. Illinois: Charles C. Thomas. . 2002. Demand characteristics and the development of dual, false belief sys­ 1. Bertram Karon told Beth Loftus that Edward was his brother who had tems. Prevention and Treatment 5: Article 39. died about twenty years previously. Pankratz. E, D. Hickam, and S. Toth. 1989. The identification and management 2. 1 published a single-case report describing two sessions of hypnosis to of drug-seeking behavior in a medical center. Drug and Alcohol treat a similar hysterical paralysis (Pankratz 1979). My point was that a face- Dependence 24: 115-118. saving strategy can avoid a struggle over the etiology of symptoms, and it is not Pankratz, L. and J. Jackson. 1994. Habitually wandering patients. New- England necessary that the paradigm fit the facts to be effective. Journal of Medicine 331: 1752-1755. 3. See, for example, Pankratz 1990, 1998; Pankratz, Hickam. and Toth Pankratz. E. and L Kofoed. 1988. The assessment and treatment of geezers. Journal of the American Medical Association 259: 1228-1229. 1989; Pankratz and Jackson 1994; Pankratz and Kofoed 1988; Pankratz and Pankratz, L, and J. Lipkin. 1978. The transient patient in a psychiatric ward: Lipkin 1978; and Pankratz and McCarthy 1986. Summering in Oregon. Journal of Operational Psychiatry): 42-47. 4. The DD-214 is the veteran's discharge document that provides a general Pankratz, L, and G. McCarthy. 1986. The ten least wanted patients. Southern review of the individuals military history. The DD-214 is now so commonly Medical Journa/ T): 613-620. forged, however, that it should no longer be considered a reliable document. Pendergrast. M. 1998. Response to Karon and Widener (1997). Professional 5. Interested readers can obtain a copy of this correspondence from Mr. Psychology: Research and Practice 29: 479-481. Pendergrast at [email protected]. Piper, A. 1998. Repressed memories from World War II: Nothing to forget. 6. Interested readers can obtain a copy of this correspondence from Mr. Examining Karon and Widener s (1997) claim to have discovered evidence for Giglio at [email protected]. repression. Professional Psychology: Research and Practice 29: 476-478. 7. Jones, et al. (in press) examined symptoms of UK servicemen from 1854 Shalev, A.Y.. O. Bonne, and S. Eth. 1996. Treatment of posttraumatic stress disor­ to the present. They concluded that symptoms of stress have changed dramat­ der A review. Psychosomatic Medicine 58: 165-82. Southwick S.M., et al. 1997. Consistency of memory for combat-related traumatic ically over time and that PTSD (as described in the diagnostic manual) is a cul­ events in veterans of Operation Desert Storm. American Journal of Psychiatry ture-bound syndrome. 154: 173-177. 8. My favorite example is from the National Vietnam Veteran Sparr. L, and L Pankratz. 1983. Factitious posttraumatic stress disorder. American Readjustment Study (NWRS), research that consumed four years and $9 mil­ Journal of Psychiatry 140: 1016-1019. lion (Kulka et al. 1988). Six women in die study claimed that their stress was Tavris, C 2002. The high cost of skepticism. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 26(4): 41-44. caused by being a prisoner of war. Not one of the many researchers involved in Webster. R. 1995. Why Freud Was Wrung. New York: Basic Books. the study apparendy realized that no American military woman ever became a Yehuda, R., and A.C. McFarland 1995. Conflict between current knowledge about POW in Vietnam. posttraumatic stress disorder and its original conceptual basis. American Journal 9. The American Psychological Association recently was accused of backing of Psychiatry 152: 1705-1713. away from some controversial scientific findings. To their credit, rhcy devoted Zerffi. G.G. 1871. Spiritualism and Animal Magnetism. London: Robert an issue of the American Psychologist to the whole affair (see Lilienfeld 2002). Hardwicke. •

36 May/June 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 'Premenstrual Dysphoric Disorder' and 'Premenstrual Syndrome' Myths

Neither Premenstrual Dysphoric Disorder (PMDD) nor Premenstrual Syndrome (PMS) is a medical or mental disorder or illness. Premenstrual changes are a normal part of life. Belief in PMS/PMDD is a result of conditioning, not biological processes, and best treated as such.

STEPHEN RAY FLORA and MELISSA SELLERS

remenstrual dysphoric disorder (PMDD) is not a dis­ order, illness, or disease, but an extreme point on the Pcontinuum of premenstrual tension. Nor is "premen­ strual syndrome" (PMS) an illness or disorder. Premenstrual physical changes related to the menstrual cycle are a normal part of female life. Emotional and behavioral problems associated with men­ struation in some women are a result of basic conditioning processes—reinforcement and modeling. Expressions of PMS symptoms are negatively reinforced when they result in sick days from work or school or allow the "sufferer" to escape or avoid anxiety-provoking or unpleasant social situ­ ations. PMS provides an excuse for what would otherwise be

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2003 37 unacceptable behavior. PMS behaviors are positively rein­ depressed feeling, anxiety, anger, and food cravings" forced when expression of symptoms result in social comfort (Premenstrual Syndrome 2001). The psychological commu­ or medical care. PMS symptoms develop when they are mod- nity, the medical-psychiatric community, and feminists all tied by others as expected patterns of female behavior. have varying opinions on the validity of PMS and PMDD as Cognitive-behavioral therapy, nutrition, and exercise, are the mental or physical illnesses. The consensus among psychiatrists, most rational and the most effective treatment for PMS symp­ who consider PMS/PMDD to be a valid disorder, is that drugs toms. Drugs given for PMS produce many side effects (e.g., should be the first line of treatment. However, neither PMS anxiety) that are the same as reported "symptoms" of PMS. nor PMDD has been scientifically established as an illness.

Physiology of Menstruation A Brief History of PMS The body's hormone interactions are responsible for the men­ "The notion that women's reproductive systems affect their strual cycle. Seven to ten days prior to the onset of menstrua­ lives is ancient," notes Linda Brannon in Gender: Psychological tion, many women report symptoms of "premenstrual syn­ Perspectives (Brannon 1996, 62). Historically and across cul­ drome" (PMS). "The most common physical complaints tures, as recently portrayed in Anita Diamant's award-winning include breast tenderness, bloating, weight gain, headache, novel The Red Tent, (2001) menstruation was celebrated: and fatigue. Common emotional and mental symptoms "how my mothers celebrated the new moon [menstruation] include irritability, difficulty concentrating, moodiness, with cakes and songs and stories, leaving ill will outside" (133). Menstruation was seen as a reconfirmation of "womanhood," and eagerly looked forward to by many women—"a gift to women that is not known among men, and this is the secret of blood ... to men this is flux and distem­ per, bother and pain. They imagine we suffer and consider themselves lucky. We do not disabuse them. ... In the red tent, the truth is known . . . women give thanks—for repose and restoration, for the knowledge that life comes from between our legs, and that life costs blood" (158). Once, menstruation was seen as . the essential part of life that it is. \» How did normal menstrual If symptoms come to be viewed by some as an illness? In Psychobbable and Biobunk, Carol Tavris concludes that PMDD is "just ancient supersti­ tion in pompous new jargon" (2001). The problem of whether or not severe PMS—PMDD— is a real mental disorder is actu­ ally a particular case of the gen­ eral problem of when any set of conditions constitutes a mental disorder. In Creating Mental Illness (2002) Rutgers sociologist Allan Horwitz argues that "psychiatrists, epidemiologist, and clinicians simply

Stephen Ray Flora is an associate profes­ sor of psychology at Youngstown State University Melissa Sellers is a writer and psy­ chology major at Youngstown State. Correspondence concerning this article can be sent to [email protected].

38 May/Junt 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER accept as mental disorders whatever conditions the DSM [a of other women, Melissa's sister was given a free sample of psychological diagnostic manual] lists. They do not ask how Sarafem from a different doctor for a different "problem"— these conditions came to be regarded as mental disorders ... she had a baby. there is no reason to accept that any particular group of symp­ toms represents a valid form of mental dis­ order" (pp. 19-20). "Premenstrual tension" was first described in 1931. In 1953 Katherine Through observational learning and Dalton introduced the term "premenstrual syndrome," and in subsequent years pro­ reinforcement women are taught that moted and researched PMS (see Dalton premenstrual symptoms are problematic. 1987) The list of PMS symptoms, some directly contradicting others, has grown to if girls are taught that menstruation is over 150. Dalton notes that "The symp­ normal, then as women they are unlikely toms themselves are commonplace and also occur with great frequency in men, to perceive the symptoms as problematic. children, and postmenopausal women" (1987, 717). How can this vast group of common "symptoms" that occur in all people represent a valid mental disorder? Tavris argues that PMS is a "manufactured" problem Conditioning of PMS (e.g., a fiction). 16 support this claim Tavris notes that Reports of subjectively experienced premenstrual pain are not although described in 1931, it wasn't until 1964 that the first a product of actual physical severity, but of basic conditioning article on PMS appeared in a medical journal, and 1966 for processes—reinforcement and observational learning. In an the first psychological journal article. But by 1989 there were article "Modeling and reinforcement of the sick role during 305 medical journal articles and 120 psychological journal childhood predicts adult illness behavior," the authors, led by articles on PMS (Tavris 1992, 140). Women have always ovu­ William E. Whitehead of the Division of Digestive Diseases lated and menstruated, but research on PMS "erupted" of die University of North Carolina, studied 382 women and in the 1970s, according to Tavris, because "When women's found that "subjects were most likely to report the symptoms participation in the labor force is seen as a threat instead of a and to take disability days for the symptoms that their parent reinforced and modeled" (Whitehead et al. 1994, 548). necessity, menstruation becomes a liability" (141). Along the Specifically: "Childhood reinforcement and modeling of way, as noted by Tavris, PMS was "coopted" by biomedical menstrual illness behavior had a significant influence on the researchers—"The big money, the big grants" (141). Indeed, number of physician visits for menstrual symptoms" (547). today the pharmaceutical companies are the biggest promoters Similarly, Canadian researchers Melanie Thompson and Mary of PMS/ PMDD. Do real medical problems need promoting? Glick found that among college students: "Consistent with In 1987, the American Psychiatric Association's Diagnostic previous research, care-seekers reported more reinforcement for and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, third edition- adolescent menstrual illness behaviors than non-care-seekers. revised (DSM-Hl-R), labeled those with severe PMS symp­ Care-seekers also reported their symptoms as more serious toms as meeting the criteria for "late luteal phase dysphoric and more difficult to ignore. The perceived seriousness and disorder." In 1994 the DSM-IV task force (literally a group of severity of symptoms were both correlated with reinforcement psychiatrists that decide, not by scientific data, but by con­ for adolescent menstrual symptoms" (2000, 137). sensus what to call a "disorder") put late luteal phase dys­ Mexican researchers Luisa Marvan and Claudia Escobedo phoric disorder in the appendix as "premenstrual dysphoric (1999) studied PMS with eighty-six healthy Mexican women disorder" (PMDD) under disorders needing further siudv." who had no higher than a sixth grade education. A This inclusion legitimized PMDD for women, die medical "Menstrual Distress Questionnaire" (MDQ) was given to all community, and the insurance industry. It wasn't long until women one week after menstruation. Then half the women Prozac, repackaged in pretty purplish pills and called were shown a video describing the menstrual cycle. The other "Sarafem," was being readily offered to women for mention­ women were shown a video describing PMS and its negative ing "commonplace symptoms." consequences. All the women were again given the MDQ For example, when Melissa (the second author) casually after their next menstruation. There were no changes in the asked her doctor how a new birth control pill was with "PMS women who simply learned about the menstrual cycle, but symptoms," before she could finish her sentence the doctor the women who watched the PMS video reported more severe offered her Sarafem. Melissa did not say she had severe symp­ premenstrual symptoms after watching the tape. Would toms or was depressed. The doctor didn't ask what symptoms watching a video about measles produce measles? Melissa was referring to. He simply offered her a powerful These results show that viewing premenstrual symptoms as pharmaceutical. This occurrence is not unique. Like millions problematic is not the result of physical conditions. Through

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2003 39 observational learning and reinforcement women are taught they found much higher retrospective reports of premenstrual that premenstrual symptoms are problematic. The converse is change than actually occurred according to the daily reports. that if girls are taught that menstruation is normal— The researchers concluded that "many women have a misper- nonproblematic, then as women they are unlikely to perceive ception about the meaning of PMS: consequently, they the symptoms as problematic. amplify their premenstrual changes in recall, reflecting women's cultural stereotypes rather than their actual experiences" (2001, 276). In addition to cultural stereotypes, experimentally produced biases ("expec­ tancy effects") cause changes in reported Studies that ask people to chart their premenstrual symptoms. There are several moods and physical state daily for extended questionnaires other than the MDQ that evaluate premenstrual changes, and the periods of time fail to find any correlation amount of reported distress depends on between "symptoms" of PMS or PMDD the questionnaire given. Indeed, compared to women who first complete a MDQ and and impending menstruation. then a Menstrual Attitude Questionnaire (MAQ), women who first complete a Menstrual Joy Questionnaire (MJQ) report more positive cyclic changes on the MAQ (Chrisler et al. 1994). The MJQ asks subjects to evaluate the experience of positive symptoms Misattribution and lllusionary Correlations (such as increased sexual desire, sense of euphoria, and The more salient different stimuli or events are, the more feelings of power) the week preceding menstruation. likely they are to be associated. Therefore, once women come Menstruation is a fact, but whether it is interpreted as joyful to believe they "have PMS," other salient physical states, emo­ or distressful depends on what one is taught to expect (see tional states, and behaviors are likely to be believed to be also Diamant 1997). caused by PMS. A University of Texas-Houston Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences study (Dougherty et al. Studies that do not inform the participants that the study 1998) found that aggression did not vary across the menstrual is looking at PMS but simply ask people to chart their moods cycle. They did find that women with high MDQ scores and physical state daily for extended periods of time fail to (PMS) were almost twice as aggressive as women without find any correlation between "symptoms" of PMS or PMDD PMS during all menstrual cycle phases (premenstrual, men­ and impending menstruation (Mcfarland, Ross, and strual, mid-follicular, and ovulation). DeCourville 1989). Studies find that both men and women regularly cycle though mood changes, on both daily and The Houston study shows that the link between aggression monthly cycles (McFarlane et al. 1988). and premenstruation is an illusion. Aggressive women are aggressive across the cycle, believing they have PMS just gives Treating PMS and PMDD them an excuse for much of their aggression. Indeed, an ear­ lier study of violent women offenders found that only 29 per­ Irritability, anxiety, and depression associated with the onset cent committed their crimes during the premenstrual phase of menstruation is very real for the woman even if the suffer­ (71 percent were committed during other phases), indicating ing is the result of conditioning and misattribution. PMS dis­ menstrual phase has no effect on the likelihood of a woman tress deserves effective treatment. To dismiss PMS as "all in behaving violently (d'Orban and Dalton 1980). The premen­ you head" would be as dismissive as telling a depressed person strual phase is not a cause of aggression. "don't worry, be happy." How then should PMS be treated? Studies that find relationships between premenstrual phase Exercise and inappropriate behaviors or psychological problems are ret­ rospective self-report surveys, often with the intent of die study Water retention and abdominal discomfort may occur pre- known to the participants. Such findings suggest PMS is an menstrually, and decreasing the physical symptoms through illusion due to women's (learned) expectations and (mis)attri- regular exercise in turn decreases the behavioral and emotional butions, not biology. Other studies (such as Aubuchon and symptoms. Regular exercise improves psychological function­ Calhoun 1985) find that symptoms are exaggerated if women ing for all individuals regardless of die "diagnosis" of the indi­ believe menstruation is the focus of the study. vidual suffering. A research review by Australian researchers But when the purpose of a PMS study is disguised there is Byrne and Byrne (1993) found that exercise was successful in little evidence of PMS. For example, when Maria Marvan producing antidepressant, anti-anxiety, and mood-enhancing and Sandra Cortes-Iniestra compared disguised-purpose daily effects across mood disorders. A team of Duke University reports with retrospective reports of premenstrual changes medical researchers (Babyak et al. 2000) recently found that

40 May/June 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER exercise was as effective as antidepressant medications such as new skills (p. 311). Results showed that "cognitive therapy for Prozac in treating major depressive disorder at six months, and premenstrual syndrome (PMS) was found to be associated at ten months fewer exercisers relapsed into depression than with significant improvements in a range of measures, which drug takers. That is, exercise is more effective than SSRI drugs included measures of PMS symptoms, associated impair­ in treating major depression. Exercise is equally effective in ments, and depression . . . there was no sign of any tendency treating PMS/PMDD. Strength training produces general to lose the gains made" (316). improvement in premenstrual symptoms (e.g., Steege and Dissertation work by Susan Koons indicates that the best Blumenthal 1993). Aerobic exercise produces even greater treatment for PMS may involve a combination of exercise, improvements, and is "protective" against both physical symp­ diet, and cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT). When women toms such as water retention and psychological symptoms who were diagnosed with severe PMDD completed a CBT including dysphoric mood (depression) anxiety, pain, and treatment package that included diet and exercise, the sched­ functional impairment (Bibi 1996; Stoddard 1999) uling of pleasant events, and stress management, symptoms The protective nature of exercise against PMS provides a were alleviated and gains were maintained at six month clue as to why premenstrual tension became a problem. Since follow up (Koons 1999). the early 1900s. people in the "developed world" have become increasingly sedentary. Obesity is at epidemic levels. Before Drug "Treatment" modern labor-saving devices, living required regular exercise. Despite the fact that exercise, dietary changes, and CBT have As a result, problems such as obesity and PMS were rare. been shown to be equally effective as (or more effective than) Therefore it is not surprising that women who exercise have sig­ drugs in treating mood disorders including PMDD, drugs are nificantly fewer PMS symptoms than non-exercisers (Johnson, considered to be "the first line treatment option" (Pearlstein Carr-Nangle, and Bergeron 1995). and Steiner 2000) by psychiatrists. Clearly, if womens' best interest was the primary consideration then the suggestions Nutrition mentioned thus far would be the first line of treatment. But Corresponding to the decrease in the amount of exercise psychiatrists are medical doctors, trained to give diagnosis and required by daily life there has been an increase in food avail­ treat problems with drugs. Thus if the disorder is diagnosed, ability and food consumption—particularly consumption of then it is only logical that doctors would to look to drugs to high fat and high sugar foods. An increase in fat consump­ treat the illness. However, die data suggests that drug treat­ tion and a decrease in low-fat vegetable consumption con­ ment is short-sighted. tributes to PMS symptomology. Improving nutritional habits The first drug approved specifically for PMDD by the effectively decreases premenstrual distress. FDA is Sarafem (previously marketed as Prozac). Prozac is a Because "anecdotal reports indicate that a low-fat, vegetar­ selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI). SSRIs work by ian diet might reduce menstrual pain," and because several preventing the reuptake of the neurotransmitter molecule research findings have established that "plant-based and vege­ serotonin by the neuron that released it. Preventing reuptake tarian diets increase serum concentration of sex-hormone increases serotonin's concentration in the synapse between binding globulin, which binds and inactivates estrogens" communicating neurons and thus increases neuronal com­ (245), Georgetown University researchers (Barnard, et al. munication. Prozac was developed for depression. SSRIs were 2000) studied the effects of a vegetarian diet on dysmenorrhea not developed for, or assumed to have anything to do with, (painful menstruation) and premenstrual symptoms. The veg­ menstruation. With the impending expiration for the patent etarian diet resulted in weight loss, decreased dysmenorrhea, on Prozac, Eli Lilly's multibillion-dollar drug, the color of the decreases in pain and water retention, and other premenstrual pill was changed and on July 6, 2000, die FDA approved the symptoms. Following the Federal Drug Administration's rec­ "new" drug Sarafem for PMDD. As listed on the "informa­ ommended diet of five servings of fruits and vegetables and tion for the patient" insert included in packets of Sarafem, minimal animal fat would result in greatly improved men­ some of the side effects include "tiredness, upset stomach, strual health including a decrease in PMS symptoms. nervousness, dizziness, and difficulty concentrating." These side effects are among the very "symptoms" of PMDD! Cognitive Behavioral Therapy One of the impetuses for Sarafem/Prozac being approved Although effective, exercise and diet alone may not address by the FDA was a 1995 study (Steiner, Steinberg, Stewart, et. the misattributions that problematic behaviors (e.g., aggres­ al.), funded by Eli Lilly, that found that for 52 percent of suf­ sion) and emotions are caused by premenstrual tension. ferers drug treatment produced "moderate improvement." Fortunately, education and dicrapy directed at changing diese Obviously, yet ignored, this means the drug did not help (or beliefs is effective (Christensen and Oei 1995). Cognitive only slightly helped) 48 percent. The efficacy of Prozac also therapy that includes diet and exercise recommendations has decreased considerably after four months. shown to be an effective treatment for PMS. Fiona Blake and Furthermore, taking drugs for PMS is likely to produce her coworkers (1998) treated women diagnosed with PMS misattributions—e.g., "If I'm feeling good now, it must be with cognitive therapy that included: treatment goals, educa­ because I'm on Sarafem. It couldn't be due to my own actions tion, engaging in new behaviors for homework, and gaining and of those around me. I'm not aggressive now because I'm

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2003 41 on drugs." Such misattributions are likely to foster further Blake, F.. D.G. Salkovskis, A. Day, and A. Garrod. 1998. Cognitive therapy for premenstrual syndrome: A controlled trial. Journal of Psychosomatic drug dependence—e.g., "I need Sarafem or I'll be a real Research 45, 307-318. bitch." The side effects of SSRJs such as Sarafem are detri­ Brannon. L. 1996. Gender: Psychological Perspectives. Boston: Allyn and Bacon. mental, whereas the side effects of improved diet and exercise Chrisler, J.C.. I.K. Johnston. N.M. Champagne, and K.E. Preston. 1994. are beneficial. Menstrual joy: The construct and its consequences. Psychology of Women Quarterly 18, 375-387. In contrast to drug treatment, behavioral approaches Christensen A.P.. and T.P. Oei. 1995. The efficacy of cognitive behavior ther­ including lifestyle changes (involving diet, exercise, social apy in treating premenstrual dysphoric changes. Journal of Affective skills, and education) directly confront the sources of PMS Disorders 33. 57-63. (poor diet, lack of exercise, poor social skills, misattributions, Dalton, K. 1987. What is this PMS? In M.R. Walsh (Ed.) The Psychology of Women: Ongoing Debates, 131-136. New Haven, Conn.: Yak- and ignorance about menstruation). While the initial costs of University Press. changing one's lifestyle may be higher than simple pill pop­ Diamant, A. 1997. The Red Tent. New York: Picador. ping, the results are much greater (e.g., Babyak et al. 2000). d'Orban, RT, and J. Dalton. 1980. Violent crime and the menstrual cycle. Psychosomatic Medicine 10, 353-359. Diana Taylor (1999) of the University of California at San Dougherty, D.M., J.M. Bjork, D.R. Cherek, EG. Moeller, and D.B. Huang. Francisco investigated the effectiveness of a symptom man­ 1998. Effects of menstrual cycle phase on aggression measured in the lab- agement intervention involving self-monitoring/regulation orator)1. Aggressive Behavior 24: 9-26. (diet regulation, vitamin supplementation, and exercise), and Goodale, L., A. Domar, and H. Benson. 1990. Alleviation of premenstrual syndrome symptoms with the relaxation response. Obstetrics and self/environment modification ("lifestyle alterations, . . . Gynecology 74. 649-655. change in daily activities, and interpersonal competency Horwitz, A.V. 2002. Creating Mental Illness. Chicago, Illinois: The University training") with ninety-one women with severe PMS. of Chicago Press. Treatment produced "dramatic reductions in premenstrual Johnson, W.G.. R.E. Carr-Nangle, and K.C. Bergeron. 1995. Macronutricnt intake, eating habits, and exercise as moderates of menstrual distress in symptom severity (75-85 percent)" (507). Results were main­ healthy women. Psychosomatic Medicine 57, 324-30. tained or enhanced at follow up. Taylor (1999) compared Koons. S.R- 1999. Cognitive-behavioral symptom management of premen­ these results with those of drug treatment: strual dysphoric disorder: A multi-element design with replications. Dissertation Abstracts International: Section B: The Sciences and a 75-85 percent reduction in PMS severity in women [results Engineering 60, 2346. from] using a combination of dietary, exercise, and behav­ Kirby. R. 1994. Changes in premenstrual symptoms and irrational thinking following cognitive-behavioral coping skills training. Journal of ioral, cognitive, and environmental stress management strate­ Consulting and Clinical Psychology 62.1026-1032. gies (Goodale et al. 1990; Kirby 1994). When compared to Marvan, M.L... and S. Cortes-Iniestra. 2001. Women's beliefs about the antidepressant drug therapy, the PMS-SMP (Symptom prevalence of premenstrual syndrome and biases in recall of premenstrual Management Program] was more effective in reducing pre­ changes. Health Psychology 20, 276-280. menstrual symptom severity and distress than studies testing Marvan. M.L. and C. Escobedo. 1999. Premenstrual symptomatology: Role fluoxetine [Sarafem/Prozac], which demonstrated 40-50 per­ of prior knowledge about premenstrual syndrome. Psychosomatic cent improvement in PMS severity, but up to one third of Medicine 61. 163-167. women will discontinue medication use due to drug side McFarland, C. M. Ross, and N. DeCourville. 1989. Women's theories of effects such as nausea, disturbed sleep, fatigue, and dizziness" menstruation and biases in recall of menstrual symptoms. Journal of (Steiner et al. 1995). Personality and Social Psychology 57, 522-531. McFarlane, J.. C.L Martin, and T.M. Williams. 1988. Mood fluctuations: Thus, there is only one rational conclusion concerning treat­ Women versus men and menstrual versus other cycles. Psychology of Women Quarterly 12, 201-223. ment for the so called "disorder" of PMS/PMDD: Pearlstein, T, and M. Steiner. 2000. Non-antidepressant treatment of pre­ Behavioral, educational, and cognitive-based treatment menstrual syndrome. Journal of Clinical Psychiatry 61, 22-27. should be the first line treatment option. Ignorance, conve­ Premenstrual Syndrome. 2001. Preventive Medicine 33. 7-8. Steege, J.E, and J.A. Blumenthal. 1993. The effects of aerobic exercise on nience, and the profit motive, not women's health, are why premenstrual symptoms in middle-aged women: A preliminary study. drug treatment is advocated. . Journal of Psychosomatic Research 37', 127-133. Steiner, M.. S. Steinberg, D. Stewart, D. Carter. C. Berger. and R. Reid. et References al. 1995. Flouxetine in the treatment of premenstrual dysphoria. The Aubuchon, P.G. and K.S. Calhoun. 1985. Menstrual cycle symptomology: New England Journal of Medicine 332. 1529-1534. The role of social expectancy and experimental demand characteristics. Stoddard, J.L. 1999. The effect of moderate aerobic exercise on premenstrual Psychosomatic Medicine 47, 35—45. distress and ovarian steroid hormones. Dissertation Abstracts Babyak. M., J.A. Blumenthal. S. Herman. P. Khatri, M. Doraiswamy. K. International Section B: The Sciences and Engineering 60, 2641. Moore, W.E. Craighead, T.T. Baldewicz, and K.R. Krishnan. 2000. Tavris. C. 2001. The Politics of Diagnosis: PMS and the DSM. Psychobabble Exercise treatment for major depression: Maintenance of therapeutic and Biobunk, 2nd cd. Upper Saddle River, N.J.: Prentice Hall. benefit at 10 months. Psychosomatic Medicine bl, 633-638. . 1992. The Mismeasure of Woman. New York: Simon and Schuster. Byrne, A., and D.G. Byrne. 1993. The effect of exercise on depression, anx­ Taylor. D. 1999. Effectiveness of professional-peer group treatment: iety, and other mood states: A review. Journal of Psychosomatic Research Symptom management for women with PMS. Research in Nursing and 37, 565-74. Health 22. 496-511. Barnard, N.D., A.R. Scialli, D. Hurlock, and P. Bertron. 2000. Diet and sex- Thompson, M.L, and M.L Gick. 2000. Medical care-seeking for menstrual hormone binding glogulin. dysmenorrhea, and premenstrual symptoms. symptoms. Journal of Psychosomatic Research 49. 137— 140. Obstetrics and Gynecology 95, 245-250. Whitehead, W.E., M.D. Crowell, B.R. Heller, J.C. Robinson, M.M. Bibi, K.W. 1996. The effects of aerobic exercise on premenstrual syndrome Schuster, and S. Horn. 1994. Modeling and reinforcement of the sick symptoms. Dissertation Abstracts International: Section B: The Sciences and role during childhood predicts adult illness behavior. Psychosomatic Engineering 56, 6678. Medicine 56. 541-550. •

42 May/June 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER It is rare that we feel moved to republish an earlier SKEPTICAL INQUIRER article. But the myth that a patent commissioner once resigned because "everything that can be invented has been invented" keeps being uncritically repeated in prominent news outlets. So we thought it would be interesting and useful to reprint Samuel Sass's brief article investigating that claim, "A Patently False Patent Myth, "from our Spring 1989 issue. The article has not appeared in any SI anthology. Author Sass has slightly revised one paragraph, and at the end he provides an update.—EDITOR A Patently False Patent Myth—Still!

Did a patent official really once resign because he thought nothing was left to invent? Once such myths start they take on a life of their own.

SAMUEL SASS

or close to a century there has periodically appeared in print the story about an official of the U.S. Patent FOffice who resigned his post because he believed that all possible inventions had already been invented. Some years ago, before I retired as librarian of a General Electric Company division, I was asked by a skeptical scientist to find out what there was to this recurring tale. My research proved to be easier than I had expected. I found that this matter had been investigated as a project of the D.C. Historical Records Survey under the Works Projects Administration. The inves­ tigator, Dr. Eber Jeffery, published his findings in the July 1940 Journal of the Patent Office Society. Jeffery found no evidence that any official or employee of

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2003 43 the U.S. Patent Office had ever resigned because he thought vate affairs, and stated, "1 wish to express a willingness that there was nothing left to invent. However, Jeffery may have others may share public favors and have an opportunity to found a clue to the origin of the myth. In his 1843 report to make greater improvements." He indicated that he would have Congress, the then-commissioner of the Patent Office, Henry resigned earlier if it had not been for the need to rebuild after L. Ellsworth, included the following comment: "The advance­ the fire of 1836, which had destroyed the Patent Office build­ ment of the arts, from year to year, taxes our credulity and ing. In any case, the letter of resignation should have put an seems to presage the arrival of that period when human end to any notion that his comment in the 1843 report was to improvement must end." As Jeffery shows, it's evident from die be taken literally. rest of that report that Commissioner Ellsworth was simply Unfortunately, the only words of Commissioner Ellsworth using a bit of rhetorical flourish to emphasize that the number that have lived on are those about the advancement of the arts of patents was growing at a great rate. Far from considering taxing credulity and presaging the period when human inventions at an end, he oudined areas in which he expected improvement must end. For example, the December 1979 patent activity to increase, and it is clear tJiat he was making Saturday Review contained an article by Paul Dickson titled plans for the future. "It'll Never Fly, Orville: Two Centuries of Embarrassing When Commissioner Ellsworth did resign in 1845, his let­ Predictions." He lists a pageful of "some of the worst wrong- ter of resignation certainly gave no indication that he was headed predictions." Ellsworth's rhetorical sentence is included resigning because he thought there was nothing left for die with such laughable statements as that said by Napoleon to Patent Office to do. He gave as his reason the pressure of pri- Robert Fulton: "What sir, you would make a ship sail against the wind and currents by lighting a bonfire under her decks? I Samuel Sass (523 Crane Ave., Pittsfield, MA 01201) was librar­ pray excuse me. I have no time to listen to such nonsense." ian of the General Electric Company's transformer division for If in the case of Commissioner Ellsworth there was at least thirty-one years before his retirement in 1976. a quotation out of context on which the "nothing left to

44 May/June 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER invent" story was based, a more recent myth attributing a sim­ are not those of some kind of idiot who believes that every­ ilar statement to a commissioner who served a half-century thing has already been invented. Other information in that later is totally baseless. This news story surfaced in the fall of report also definitely refutes any such notion. Duell presents 1985, when full-page advertisements sponsored by the TRW statistics showing the growth in the number of patents from Corporation appeared in a number of leading periodicals, 435 in 1837 to 25,527 in 1899. In the one year between 1898 including Harper's and Business Week. and 1899 there was an increase of about 3,000. It's hardly These ads had as their theme "The Future Isn't What It likely that he would expect a sudden and abrupt ending to Used to Be." They contained photographs of six individuals, patent applications. ranging from a baseball player to a president of the United The other book cited by the advertising manager of TRW, States, who had allegedly made wrong predictions. Along with Inc., The Experts Speak, by Cerf and Navasky, offers a key to such statements as "Sensible and responsible women do not how myths are perpetuated. This volume, published three want to vote," attributed to President Cleveland, and "There is years after the Morgan and Langford work, contains the spu­ no likelihood man can cvci iap die power of the atom," attrib­ rious Duel! quote, "Everything that can be invented has been uted to physicist Robert Millikan, there is a prediction that was invented," and prints it as though it had formed part of the supposedly made by Commissioner of the U.S. Patent Office commissioner's 1899 report to President McKinley. However, Charles H. Duell. The words attributed to him were: unlike the earlier work, The Experts Speak contains source "Everything that can be invented has been invented." The date notes in the back. The source given reads as follows: "Charles given was 1899. H. Duell, quoted from Chris Morgan and David Langford, Since I was certain that the quotation was spurious, I wrote Facts and Fallacies (Exeter, England, Webb & Bower, 1981), to the TRW advertising manager to ask its source. In response p. 64." Unlikely as it is for the head of the U.S. Patent Office to my inquiry, I received a letter referring me to two books, to have said something so silly, evidently it did not occur to although I had specifically asked for the primary and not Cerf and Navasky to question that statement. They simply secondary sources. The books were The Experts Speak, copied it from the earlier book. One can expect that in the by Christopher Cerf and Victor Navasky, published in 1984 future there will be more copying because it is easier than by Pantheon, and The Book of Facts and Fallacies, by checking the facts. Chris Morgan and David Langford, published in 1981 The irony is that the subtitle of The Experts Speak is "The by St. Martin's Press. Definitive Compendium of Authoritative Misinformation." When I examined these two volumes I found that the 1981 One can only wonder how much more misinformation is con­ Morgan and Langford work contained Commissioner tained in this nearly 400-page compendium. On the tide page Ellsworth's sentence about the advancement of the arts taxing the book is described as a "joint project of the Nation magazine our credulity, although the quote was somewhat garbled. It and the Institute of Expertology." Whatever this institute may also contained the following comment by the authors: "We be, on the theory that the Nation is a responsible publication, suppose that at just about any period in history one can imag­ I wrote to Mr. Navasky, who is editor of that magazine and ine, the average dim-witted official will have doubted that any­ coauthor of the book, to ask if he could tell me where and thing new can be produced; the attitude cropped up again in when Commissioner Duell made the stupid statement attrib­ 1899, when the director of the U.S. Patent Office urged uted to him. 1 did not receive a reply. President McKinley to abolish the office, and even the post of director," since "everything that can be invented has been Addendum to Original Article invented." The authors do not give the name of the commis­ The earliest appearance of the patent myth in print that I am sioner whom they call "director," but it was Charles H. Duell aware of is the October 16, 1915, issue of The Scientific who held that office in 1899. They don't offer any documen­ American. It contains the following item: "Someone poring tation to support that alleged statement, and they would have over the old files in the United States Patent Office in had a tough time finding any. Washington the other day found a letter written in 1833 that It's easy enough to prove that Duell was not the "dim-witted illustrates the limitations of the human imagination. It was official" so glibly referred to. One need only examine his 1899 from an old employee of the Patent Office, offering his resig­ report, a document of only a few pages, available in any nation to the head of the department. His reason was that as depository library. Far from suggesting to the president that everything inventable had been invented the Patent Office he abolish the Patent Office, Duell quotes the following from would soon be discontinued and there would be no further McKinley's annual message: "Our future progress and pros­ need of his services...," perity depend upon our ability to equal, if not surpass, other As in all "urban legends," the details are vague. Neither "the nations in the enlargement and advance of science, industry old employee" who is supposed to have resigned nor the and commerce. To invention we must turn as one of the most "someone poring over the old files" is identified. The fact is powerful aids to the accomplishment of such a result." Duell that when the Patent Office burned to the ground in 1836, ail then adds, "May not our inventors hopefully look to the records were destroyed so that even if that 1833 letter had ever Fifty-sixth Congress for aid and effectual encouragement in A PATENTLY FALSE PATENT MYTH STILL! improving the American patent system?" Surely these words Continued on page 48

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2003 45 Wired to the Kitchen Sink Studying Weird Claims for Fun and Profit

An evaluation of Dr. John Upledger's craniosacral therapy illustrates an exercise proposed for skeptics to develop critical thinking and a better understanding of human psychology.

HARRIET A. HALL

fter reading some particularly egregious nonsense, you have probably asked yourself, "How could anyone in Ahis right mind believe that?" There is an answer to your question. In fact, the person who believes the nonsense will usu­ ally provide the answer himself if you give him half a chance. Go to the source. Read the believers account of how he came to believe. He will probably give a clear enough description that you can see where he went wrong. It will give you an insight into human psychology. It will probably also be very entertain­ ing. Here is an example of how it works. I recendy heard of craniosacral therapy. It is a method some osteopathic physicians use to restore health by adjusting

46 May/June 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER the bones of the skull and sacrum. Anatomists can demon­ He thought he had found a "cure-all," but apparently it wasn't strate that the skull bones are fused together in adulthood and enough to cure all, since he proceeded to add other treatments cannot move. Other fallacies inherent in the therapy are too to his armamentarium. He discovered tissue memory, he found numerous to list: craniosacral therapy is totally implausible his hands "almost moving by themselves" to certain areas of and has been thoroughly debunked elsewhere. the patient's body that seemed to contain some son ol mem­ So how could anyone in his right mind believe in it? ory of an old injury. He could feel heat and pulsations: under To find out, I went to the horses mouth. My local library had his hands these increased, then decreased until the sensations a book entitled Your Inner Physician and You: Craniosacral seemed to stop. At that point the patients pain would subside. The patient sometimes felt an emotion (fear, anger) and at that Therapy and Somato Emotional Release, by Dr. John E. Upledger, time or later might remember a forgotten injury. who is a major proponent of craniosacral therapy. I decided to read his account with as open a mind as I could summon, and give him a fair chance 10 convince tnc Dr. John E. Upiedger regressea a paiieni io age He describes his "eureka" moment. He was assisting a neurosurgeon by holding the two days, where she remembered her grandmother dura (membrane surrounding the brain saying she should never have been born; insight and spinal cord) steady while the surgeon removed a calcified plaque. He wasn't caused her symptoms to disappear. He asked to talk doing a very good job of holding still. The to a patient's Inner Physician, who would explain the surgeon complained. Most of us would have thought our own muscles were at cause of the illness. One Inner Physician appeared fault: however. Upledger observed that the to the patient in the form of a seagull and asked dura was fluctuating up and down at about ten cycles per minute, overcoming his to be addressed as "Mermaid." attempts to hold it still. Nobody had ever observed this before. He hypothesized that this "craniosacral rhythm" was intrin­ He proceeded to discover energy cysts (energy from an injur,' sic to human health. Since the cerebrospinal fluid within the supposedly forms a ball deep in the tissues and stays there until dura is in a closed space, the skull bones must move in and out released), somatoemotional release (touching the patient and to accommodate the rhythmic changes. The nervous system giving permission allows old traumatic memories to surface and controls the rest of the body, so if the bones are not moving ventilate), and healing energy (which he transmits from the fin­ freely, nerve conduction might be abnormal and health might gers of one hand to the other hand through the patient's body). suffer. Perhaps he had found the basic cause of all disease. Next he tried hypnosis. He regressed a patient to age two days, He tried mobilizing the cranial bones through hands-on where she remembered her grandmother saying she should manipulation, and convinced himself he could feel the bones never have been born; insight caused her symptoms to disap­ move one-sixteenth of an inch or more. Patients with autism, pear. He asked to talk to a patient's Inner Physician, who would seizures, cerebral palsy, headaches, dyslexia, colic, asthma, and explain the cause of the illness. One Inner Physician appeared other diseases reported dramatic improvement. He found that to the patient in the form of a seagull and asked to be addressed well people treated with monthly adjustments reported more as "Mermaid." (I am not making this up.) energy, felt happier, and were sick less often. He found that combinations of therapies worked even bet­ He felt he had achieved a glimpse into the "core." He states, ter than one at a time. Multiple hands with multiple therapists "I'm not quite sure as yet what the core is all about, but I do got results logarithmically faster. He tried therapy in float know that at times the craniosacral system feels like the entree tanks: it worked wonders. He tried swimming with dolphins: into the deepest region of the patient's (and my own) total multiple therapists surrounded the patient and were told to being. I'm not quite sure as yet what the 'total being is all silently encourage the dolphins' freedom of choice, and to about, but it feels like the craniosacral system is where it all think that the dolphins were at least equal to them in knowl­ comes together, whatever it is." edge and skill, and probably superior. (Perhaps this was true.) So far, he had failed to convince me. It seems obvious that Dolphins spontaneously came up and touched the therapist's he had experienced an illusion (ideomotor activity, as experi­ back to relieve the patients symptoms. In one case, they enced by Ouija boarders and water witchers). His false per­ reduced a leg-length discrepancy from three inches to one ception was reinforced when patients seemed to respond to inch. At the same time the therapists' own skills were enhanced treatment (perhaps from placebo effect, suggestion, hypnosis, in "some non-conscious wav." a wish to agree with the doctor, the natural tendency of symp­ toms to improve with time, hands-on massage therapy, or Harriet A. Hall, M.D., is a retired family physician and a whatever). I found his claims implausible and unbelievable. member of Physicians for Scientific Medicine. E-mail: harriethall This was bad enough, but then he really got carried away. @attbi.com.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2003 47 Onward and upward, enthusiasm undaunted, he tried desire to find patterns everywhere and the motivation to seek sound therapy for an orchestra conductor. Hearing a cello play explanations. If we can't find meaning, we will invent it. If a concert "A" tone caused back pain; "G" relieved upper and somerhing seems to work once, we will repeat it with the lower back pain, while "B" worked only for his upper back. expectation that it might work again. We have a tendency to He would try anything his intuition suggested to him. He jump to conclusions because there is a survival value to decid­ sensed that a patient had excess energy, so he grounded the ing quickly. We tely strongly on personal testimonials, because patient's big toe to a drainpipe with copper wire, and—lo and until recently (in an evolutionary sense) that's all we had to go behold—it worked! He successfully applied the same therapy by. As any magician knows, our senses are prey to many kinds to a woman with sympathetic reflex dystrophy who was in so ol illusions. Illusory perceptions allow us to accomplish things much pain she would scream when the therapist's hand came we couldn't otherwise do; for instance, our brains fill in the within three inches of her body (!?). He had her husband con­ blind spot in our visual field. All these traits were instrumen­ nect her to the kitchen sink at home with a thirty-foot copper tal in our developmental success as a species. grounding wire so she could get around the house. (My hus­ Every one of us can be fooled, so don't cast any stones. band says this sounds like a reasonable way to control a wife, Be skeptical of weird ideas, but go to the source and listen but he may be prejudiced.) carefully and sympathetically. Approach it as a case study of Upledger never reports a failure. Everything seems to work self-deception. Try to pinpoint where logic went wrong. You for him. With that kind of reinforcement, how could he doubt? might learn how to better avoid making mistakes yourself, He is an intelligent and educated man and is admirable in many and you just might have a few laughs in the process. Just ways. You have to respect his creativity, imagination, and die remember, you're not laughing at an individual; you're appre­ courage to try unorthodox things in defiance of traditional ciating the humor in the very human failings we all share. medical education. New ideas should be encouraged: eventually some will lead to breakthroughs. It is obvious that he believes he Further Reading has helped patients and patients believe they have been helped. Barrett, Stephen. Massage Therapy: Riddled with Quackery. Quackwatch. If the skull bones really could move as much as one- Available at www.quackv.-atch.0rg/O I QuackeryRdatedTopics/massage.html. sixteenth of an inch, it would be easy enough to measure Barrett, Stephen, and W.T. Jarvis (eds.). 1993. The Health Robbers: A Close and prove it. Unfortunately, Upledger is so convinced his Look at Quackery in America. Buffalo. New York: Prometheus Books. treatments work that he has no motivation to prove the effect Hartman, Steve, and J.M. Norton. 2002. Intercxamincr Reliability and Cranial is real. He wants to keep on truckin' and to "spread the word." Osteopathy. The Scientific Review of Alternative Medicine, 6 (1): 23-34. Homola. Samuel. Inside Chiropractic: A Patient's Guide. Amherst, New York: He doesn't pause to reflect that if his hypotheses were demon­ Prometheus Books. strated to be true, it would be a major scientific discovery Magner, George. 1995. The Victim's Perspective. Amherst, New York: worthy of a Nobel Prize. He doesn't stop to think that he is Prometheus Books. subjecting his patients' money, time, health, and perhaps even Medical Economics Company, Inc. 1999. The PDR Family Guide to Natural their lives to unproven treatments. Medicines and Healing Therapies. New York: Three Rivers Press. Upledger, John. 1997. Your Inner Physician and You: Craniosacral Therapy and Evolution has given the human mind a great ability and SomatoEmotional Release. Berkeley, California: North Atlantic Books. D

eighty years earlier The Scientific American had made the same A PATENTLY FALSE PATENT MYTH—STILL/ mistake it's encouraging to know that the editors felt com­ from page 45 pelled to correct Gates. existed it could not have been seen "the other day" in 1915. Two other prominent individuals who failed to take a sec­ With the imaginative addition later of the names of ond look are Carol Browner, former Administrator of the Commissioners Ellsworth and Duell, the myth kept cropping Environmental Protection Agency, and Hugh Downs, radio up sporadically for decades but then received a major boost and television journalist. The former repeated the myth in an twenty years ago by the publication of the Morgan and October 2000 talk to the National Press Club, and Downs Langford book in 1981 and the Cerf and Navasky book three stated in his July 17, 1996, "Perspective" radio commentary years later. The 1985 TRW ad, which made use of die misin­ spiel that in "a handwritten note" Commissioner Duell had formation in these volumes, helped spread it more widely. urged President McKinley to abolish the Patent Office because A particularly discouraging aspect of die repetition of this "Everything that can be invented has been invented." He was fable is that it is repeated by individuals who have research and evidently so pleased with himself for being a purveyor of rhat fact-checking facilities at their disposal. For instance, in his news that he ended by telling his audience, "Remember that book The Road Ahead published in 1995, Bill Gates relates the you heard it here first, on radio." myth as fact. He was chided for that in the February 1996 issue It would be the height of optimism to believe that efforts to of Scientific American in these words: "If Bill Gates's grasp of debunk this myth will cause it to disappear. It's too good a the past is any guide, readers should take his visions of the story and lends itself too readily to those who are eager to make future with a dose of skepticism." In view of the fact that a point and to whom facts and truth are secondary.

48 M»y/)une2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER REVIEWS

Human Nature Is (Fill in the Blank) * • irTii • r% A rev

The Blank Slate: The Modern Denial of Human Nature. Steven Pinker. Viking Penguin Press. New York. 0670031518. 528 pp. Hardcover, $27.95.

he next time you want to end a belongs to human nature, then it belongs sequences. The difficulty with this sug­ dinner conversation about to all individuals (or is at least "species- gestion is that we expect a concept of some social problem or other, typical"—more on rhis later). However, human nature to be useful in explain­ T ing things about us, yet genes them­ try using the argument that "it's human it would be a mistake to seek universality nature." If you are talking with intel­ at the level of behavior. In principle. selves cannot explain anything. This is lectuals in the humanities or social sci­ because organisms result from a process ences, chances are they will take you for involving DNA interacting with its a reactionary or an ignoramus, and developmentally relevant environ­ excuse themselves. If you arc talking STEVEN ments—cellular, organismic, social, with ordinary people, they probably and ecological (not to mention stochas­ will consider the matter settled by tic developmental events). A revised appeal to naturalness. The people to PINKER version of the gene-centered view watch out for are the ones who respond acknowledges the role of the develop­ by asking you what you mean by mental environments, but assigns ana­ "human nature." The truth is, the con­ lytical priority to genetic factors cept is muddled. because they supply the information For the ancient Greeks, a thing's needed to build an organism, while nature had to do with those features that non-genetic factors merely supply the are possessed by all and only those raw construction materials. However, things of its type—a nature is an essence. even if this description were accurate, Bur essentialism about organisms has there would be no rationale for assign­ been undermined by Darwinism. Early ing causal priority to informational fac­ modern thinkers like Hobbes, Locke, tors as such.' It seems we cannot simply and Rousseau tried to discover "natural identify human nature with the genes. man" through a kind of rJiought experi­ Should we conclude that there is ment whereby one looks at contempo­ nothing in scientific or everyday rary people and subtracts from diem knowledge that fills the bill? That would be a grave mistake, according to those characteristics that appear to behavioral sameness can arise from Steven Pinker, the MIT cognitive psy­ depend on society and politics. This was shared circumstances as much as from chologist and popular author of The armchair anthropology. shared "natures," and behavioral differ­ Language Instinct and How The Mind Remarkably, empirical anthropolo­ ence can arise from shared "natures" Works. In his ambitious new book. The gists throughout much of the twentieth exposed to different circumstances. Blank Slate: The Modern Denial of century insisted that uSere really is no Perhaps, we need to look past vari­ such thing as human nature. This they able behavior to an invariant structure concluded from the remarkable diversity underlying it. In the age of the Human Austin Dacey is visiting research professor of human behavior cross-culturally. It Genome Project, it is tempting to of philosophy at SUNY-Buffalo and exec­ does make sense to think that if a trait equate this structure with DNA utive editor o/Thilo.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2003 49 REVIEWS

Human Nature, Pinker argues that the sights and sounds. They must be whatever the exact picture turns out denial of human nature is no longer equipped with mental machinery to be, a universal complex nature that can extract the beliefs and values will be part of it. I think we have rea­ scientifically respectable. [An excerpt underlying other people's behavior son to believe that the mind is from the book appeared in the so that the children themselves can equipped with a battery of emotions, March/April 2003 SKEPTICAL IN­ become competent members of the drives, and faculties for reasoning QUIRER.] He challenges head-on the culture. (60) and communicating, and that they radical environmentalist and social have a common logic across cultures, Finally, Pinker deftly summarizes a are difficult to erase or redesign from constructivist belief that our only sig­ diverse and fascinating assortment of scratch, were shaped by natural nificant biological endowment is an selection acting over the course of evidence gathered from animal behav­ undifferentiated capacity for "learning" human evolution, and owe some of or "reasoning." ior, anthropology, archaeology, cognitive their basic design (and some of their variation) to information in the genome. (73)

Evolutionary psychologists look for­ ward to the day (which may come) One can think that there is a human nature— when they can compile a kind of cog­ nitive Gray's Anatomy, a complete com­ the Non-Blank Slate—without thinking that pendium of the mind, carved at the science now knows what it is—the Full Slate. naturally selected joints. Of course, that day is nowhere near. Pinker is quick to admit that many important facts are not yet in, including "how our minds use the information coming in from the senses." He will defend a gen­ and developmental psychology, learn- In the opening chapters of the book. eral model that can "embrace a variety ability theory, artificial intelligence, Pinker brilliantly critiques this and of theories, present and future, and a neuroscience, evolutionary biology, and related orthodoxies. First, he presents a range of foreseeable scientific discover­ genetics. He relies heavily on evolution­ series of broad, conceptual arguments ies" (73). Pinker's circumspection here ary psychology, the emerging research informed by empirical research. is reasonable. After all, it is one thing to tradition that synthesizes evolutionary Biology teaches us that wherever one argue that the Blank Slate is prima facie science and cognitive psychology. Evolu­ finds complex adaptive systems in liv­ implausible in light of a body of well- tionary psychologists expect to find that ing nature, one finds evolution by nat­ established evidence. It is another thing the mind is mosdy an array of complex, ural selection behind them. Since the altogether to argue that the Blank Slate "domain-specific" information-process­ mind is surely a complex adaptive sys­ has been replaced by an alternative ing mechanisms that on average con­ tem, it stands to reason that it has been account. One can think that there tributed to reproductive success in significantly shaped by selection. is a human nature—the Non-Blank ancestral environments. Meanwhile, common sense suggests Slate—without thinking that science that "there can be no learning without What does this have to do with now knows what it is—the Full Slate. innate mechanisms to do the learning" human nature? Many evolutionary psy­ Agnosticism about the Full Slate is (101). "Learning," "plasticity," and chologists think that cognitive adapta­ all the more advisable at present "culture" are not alternatives to biolog­ tions (excepting sex differences) will be because so much of the relevant science ical or evolutionary explanations, but species-typical, or possessed by the is immature. Consider evolutionary components of them: average member of the species. Two leading researchers, Leda Cosmides and psychology. Despite some very promis­ Culture ... is not some miasma thai John Tooby, have dubbed this thesis the ing studies, the field is rife with deep seeps into people through their skin. ; conceptual and methodological dis­ Culture relies on neural circuitry "psychic unity of humankind." In it, agreements characteristic of a nascent that accomplishes the feat we call we find a novel notion of human learning. Those circuits do not make nature, distinct from eternal essences, discipline. For example, there is little us indiscriminate mimics but have to pre-social states, common behaviors, or agreement about what constitutes ade­ work in surprisingly subtle ways to genes: our nature is our universal quate confirmation of an adaptationist make the transmission of culture evolved psychology. In a number of hypothesis that some cognitive trait possible. . . . for children to learn evolved under natural selection. How about culture they cannot be mere places, Pinker endorses this concept of does one rigorously define, in the video cameras that passively record human nature:

50 May/June 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER REVIEWS context of cognitive psychology, the from reciprocal social interactions that cellular, organismic, and ecological structures "evidence of special design" that is the evolved by frequency-dependent selec­ interacting in a contingent ontogenetic his­ tory in which no single structure—including hallmark of selection? How does one tion (in which the fitness of a behav­ the DNA—is seen as "controlling" or "guid­ bridge the evidentiary gap between ioral strategy depends on the incidence ing" development. See Susan Oyama, The showing, via an "optimality analysis," of other strategies employed in the pop­ Ontogeny of Information: Developmental that selection should have favored'a given ulation). This would make homo sapiens Systems and Evolution, 2nd ed. (Duke University Press. 2000); Paul E. Griffiths and cognitive trait under some possible what biologists call a polymorphous Russell D. Gray. "Developmental Systems and ancestral conditions, and showing that species—in which several "morphs" or Evolutionary Explanation," Journal of those conditions actually obtained and "types" coexist in stable equilibrium. Philosophy XCI, 6 (1994): 277-304; Susan selection actually did favor the traiii' It is curious, therefore, that after making a powerful case for the Non- Blank Slate, Pinker devotes nearly half of the book to quite specific (and con­ After making a powerful case for the Non-Blank troversial) positive claims about altru­ Slate, Pinker devotes nearly half of the book to ism, morality, violence, gender roles, rape, art, and much else. In these sec­ quite specific (and controversial) positive claims tions, we are assured of the naturalness about altruism, morality, violence, gender roles, of numerous traits, including sexual ori­ entation, women's desire to be with chil­ rape, art, and much else. dren, men's tolerance for danger and risk, the taste for risky sexual liaisons and infidelity, representational realism in art, and so on. This is a Full Slate, a substantive account of our nature that What happened to the psychic unity of Oyama, Paul E. Griffiths and Russell D. Gray, goes well beyond the basic supposition humankind? Or would Pinker say that eds.. Cycles of Contingency: Developmental Systems and Evolution (Cambridge. Mass.: The of a universal evolved psychology. the Mealean psychopath is not a human MIT Press, 2003). In some important ways, Pinker complicates matters by plac­ being? When focusing on these issues, Richard Dawkins' The Extended Phenotype ing behavioral genetics among what he Pinker's usage of "human nature" tacitly (San Francisco: Freeman, 1982) accords with calls the sciences of human nature shifts from "universal evolved psychol­ a developmental systems analysis. (135). Behavioral genetics studies ogy" to "whatever is due to genes." 2. John Tooby and leda Cosmides. "The Psychological Foundations of Culture." in The For all of its bold vision, rare insight, twins, siblings, and adoptees to ascer­ Adapted Mind Evolutionary Psychology and the tain the heritability of personality traits moral clarity, and polemical firepower, Generation of Culture, Jerome H. Barkow. Leda such as openness to experience, consci­ The Blank Slate spends precious litde Cosmides, and John Tooby. eds. (New York- entiousness, and "general intelligence." time analyzing just what it means to Oxford University Press, 1992). 78-79. Overall, Pinker says, the field is reveal­ affirm or deny human nature. Half of 3. For these and related issues, see Paul E. ing that "about half of the variation in the time, the book reads as an affirma­ Griffiths, "From Adaptive Heuristic to Phylo- genctic Perspective: Some Lessons from the intelligence, personality, and life out­ tion of the Non-Blank Slate. Here it is at Evolutionary Psychology of Emotion," in comes is heritable—a correlate or an its strongest, although it fudges the dis­ Harmon R. Holcomb, ed.. Conceptual indirect product of genes" (374). He tinction between species-typical psy­ Challenges in Evolutionary Psychology: says that this richer conception of chology and genetic factors as such. The Innovative Research Smtrrgin. (Dordrecht: human nature" will clarify controversies other half of die time, it reads as an affir­ Kluwer Academic Publishing, 2001); "The about childrearing (3), among other mation of the Full Slate, an advertise­ Historical Turn in the Study of Adaptation," British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 47: ment for a soon-to-be-published Gray's things. The problem is that behavioral 511-532. For a variety of general concerns genetics looks at the differences Anatomy of the mind. Such a book truly about evolutionary psychology see Julie between individuals, not their com­ would be before its time. Fitness and Kim Sterelny. eds.. New Directions monalities. Therefore, it does not in Evolutionary Psychology (Hove. Australia: describe our "universal complex Notes Psychology Press, forthcoming); Harmon R. Halcomb, Conceptual Challenges in nature." Pinker also endorses psycholo­ 1. For over a decade, a new research pro­ Evolutionary Psychology: Sociobiology. Sex, and gist Linda Mealey's view that psychopa­ gram now known as "developmental systems Science (Albany, N.Y: SUNY Press, 1993); thy is actually not a pathology at all, but theory" has attempted to reconceprualizc the "Will Evolutionary Psychology Ever Become a an adaptation, a strategy for defecting intractable nature-nature debate in terms of a Mature Science?" Free Inquiry 21: 51-54. "developmental system": the various genetic.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/luce 2003 51 REVIEWS

science to pseudoscience. Using the cate­ The Shaky Ground gories "hero as great man" versus "hero as myth," Shermer considers Freud and Between Science and Darwin; I leave it to die reader to guess into which category he places each. Nonscience Shermer then describes die balance that PETER LAMAL Sagan maintained between scientific orthodoxy and scientific heresy. The Borderlands of Science: Where Sense Meets Nonsense. By In Part III, Shermer explores how the Michael Shermer. Oxford University Press, New York, NY study of humans' past can be accom­ 10016, 2001. ISBN 0-19-514326-4. 360 pp. Hardcover, plished using the scientific methods $27.50. employed by such historical sciences as cosmology and paleontology. He also ow do we draw the line borderlands science and lists examples applies cognitive science to the study of between science and non- of each, along with his judgment about historical figures and debunks the Hscience? Can we make this their scientific validity. He says that notion of the "miraculous" nature of demarcation reliably? Are there cases because claims in each of the categories genius. How science, especially revolu­ where the difference between the two is are fuzzy they can be reevaluated and tionary science, really works is illus­ fuzzy? The "Boundary Detection moved to a different category as a result trated by die priority dispute (Darwin Problem," as Michael Shermer dubs it, of changing evidence. All of the normal or Wallace) over the theory of evolution. is die focus of this book. Shermer con­ science claims (e.g., plate tectonics), he The Piltdown hoax is presented as a case siders and illustrates this foundational maintains, were once either in the non- study of a shift from science to pseudo- issue from three perspectives: theory, science or borderlands science cate­ science, a warning that the data never individuals, and history. In the intro­ gories, and it is the latter category to just speak for themselves. duction he points out that knowledge which the book is devoted. Although this book was an interest­ sets are fuzzy and the lines between In Part I, Shermer considers what he ing and often informative read, it is not them are blurry. Whether a particular calls our "knowledge filter" that enables without problems. For example, Sher­ claim belongs in the set labeled science us to distinguish what is true from what mer cites tulipomania as a nineteenth or pseudoscience depends on both the is not. This section also includes consid­ century phenomenon. More impor­ claim and the definition of the sets. eration of borderland theories (e.g., ath­ tantly, we are presented with various Shermer approaches the boundary letic racial differences), at least some of kinds of data regarding the question of problem by examining specific claims in which involve the hindsight bias and Carl Sagan's stature as a scientist, but some detail (e.g., remote viewing) in the confirmation bias as factors signifi­ perhaps the most important data, cita­ order to formulate principles for draw­ cantly contributing to the degree of tions of his work by other scientists, is ing the boundary. But he avers that plausibility they enjoy. Shermer dis­ absent. In addition, Shermer reports die many claims and theories are best cusses scientific paradigms and the con­ results of applying the Five Factor thought of as existing in the borderland troversy over punctuated equilibrium. It Personality Inventory of traits to between science and nonscience. is here that Shermer presents his defini­ Stephen Jay Gould and A.R. Wallace in Before outlining the ten questions tion of science, one with which scien­ order to assess such characteristics as that constitute his "Boundary Detection tists would doubtless agree. He also their Conscientiousness and Openness Kit," Shermer warns that an investigator offers definitions of paradigm, paradigm to Experience. But the construct of should abide by the fairness question: "If shifts, and scientific progress and uses "trait" is a contentious one among I were to ask the holders of die claim if punctuated equilibrium as the frame­ behavioral scientists. Even in the wake dicy feel tiiat they and their beliefs were work for discussing them. of disclaimers, it strongly suggests an fairly treated, how would they Part II is concerned wiuH individuals innate determinant of individuals' respond?" This can alert investigators to such as Copernicus, A.R. Wallace, behavior. Furthermore, "traits" are the danger of setting up and then Sigmund Freud, and Carl Sagan, all of descriptions of certain of individuals' demolishing straw men. Shermer distin­ whom were sometime dwellers in die bor­ behavior patterns; diey do not explain guishes normal science, nonscience, and derland. Shermer points out fJiat those behavior patterns. They are Copernicus's heliocentric system was, for instead shorthand labels for the pat­ Peter Lamal is Emeritus Professor of scientific and ideological reasons, slow to terns. In his reliance on traits as Psychology at the University of North be accepted. He describes why he labels explanatory, Shermer has, knowingly or Carolina-Charlotte. E-mail: plamal@car- Wallace "die heretic-personality," as well not, moved into the borderland. olina.rr.com. as Wallaces crossing die boundary from

52 May/June 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER REVIEWS

• Therefore the universe operates Divining Science's through simple rules. The obvious flaws of diis syllogism Simple Rules notwithstanding, die analyses given in ANUTOSH MOITRA die book warrant serious critical evalua­ tion. The usefulness of CA in modeling A New Kind of Science. By Stephen Wolfram. Wolfram the behavior of complex systems has been Media, Inc., Champaign, IL, 2002. ISBN 1-57955- well established in many fields of science 008-8. 1,197 pp. Hardcover, $44.95. including fluid mechanics—a field Wolfram draws upon often to illustrate his arguments. What must be noted, atterns are curious tilings. They are synthetic universes. The behavior of the however, is that his claims go far beyond ubiquitous, and discovering a few constituents of these universes is defined just modeling. He finds no reason not to Ponly whets die appetite for more, by simple rules as in a board game. Space believe that die universe is in fact a giant possibly leading to a sweet obsession to is represented by a uniform grid widi cellular automaton. A skeptic will imme­ go quietly crazy. Stephen Wolfram is any- each cell containing a few bits of data. diately notice die multiple negation. I riling but crazy, but patterns have a curi­ Time advances in discrete steps and at suppose Wolfram is open to being proven ous hold on him. He is a well-known and each step the data in each cell is updated wrong, but he places the burden of proof respected scientist renowned as die origi­ based only on die states of die data in its on everybody else, shrugging off the nator of Mathematica, a software system closest neighboring cells. Wolfram has responsibility to furnish extraordinary for solving differential equations. He is presented an abundance of examples of proof for his own extraordinary claim. also a proponent of Cellular Automata complex behavior arising out of CA gov­ This confusion between models and (CA), a computational scheme that in erned by elementally simple rules. But is actual physical systems—the confound­ Wolframs estimation would make differ­ this new? Claims of new sciences appear ing of die metaphor and die real thing— ential equations obsolete as a tool for every now and then. Two popular books pervades die whole of Wolfram's book. describing die workings of die physical widi subtides claiming the advent of new Skeptics are well aware that indulging universe. To support this ironic claim sciences have been published in the this synonymy between symptom and Wolfram has filled a book of over twelve recent past (Ban Kosko's Fuzzy Thinking: cause can easily lead one to accept falla­ hundred pages, A New Kind of Science, The New Science of Fuzzy Logic and James cious arguments such as "after this, there­ with exquisite patterns—of randomness, Gleick's Chaos: Making A New Science). fore because of this." paradoxically. Wolfram's suspicions and Both of them have disappeared from Models have always been used in sci­ certainties, strangely often synonymous popular imagination without kindling a entific simulation of physical phenom­ in his writing, could have been succinctly revolution. Toffoli and Margolus, in their ena. Models are approximations used to laid out in a volume one-fifth die size of book widi a far more appropriate subti­ describe the aggregate behavior of physi­ his much acclaimed and often maligned tle. Cellular Automata Machines: A New cal systems, insofar as these behaviors arc book. But the real questions to be asked Environment for Modeling, tell us that CA known, without actually reproducing die are. Is it new? and Is it science? Claims of have been invented many times under workings of the system in its minutest "new science" tend to raise skeptics' hack­ different names, and somewhat different details. Take die example of fluid turbu­ les, and rightly so. After all. claims of die concepts have been circulated under die lence, Wolfram's favorite topic. supernatural and the paranormal often same name. CA were introduced in die Theoretical models are essential to study­ come clothed in precepts claiming to be late 1940s by John Von Neumann. I have ing turbulence because the exact mecha­ beyond die capabilities of traditional sci­ followed Wolfram's work with great nism through which turbulence is gener­ ence to understand diem. They claim interest, CA modeling of fluid mechanics ated is not yet known to science. existence of phenomena that are only in particular, over a couple of decades and Traditionally, turbulence theories at­ revealed when normal modes of percep­ would hate to see die interesting parts of tempt to model fluid turbulence phe­ tion are transcended. I do not believe his work marginalized because of inflated nomena through statistical averages of Wolfram is making these claims, claims of newness. the velocity field. This field is, however, although his language of discourse is In a nutshell Wolfram's claim often reminiscent of them. appears to consist of the following line Anutosh Moitra, Ph.D., is Principal Wolfram talks about Cellular Auto­ of argument: Engineer at Boeing. His specialties are mata and their ability to generate repre­ • Algorithms based on simple rules can enabling technology and research and com­ sentations of complex phenomena. generate complex behavior of systems. putational fluid dynamics. E-mail anutosh. Cellular Automata may be thought of as • The universe is a complex system. [email protected].

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Mjy/lunr 2003 S3 REVIEWS

itself an average over microscopic molec­ must be considered in both its cpistemo- in use. This is not new either. Skeptics ular motion. I was first drawn to logical and ontological aspects. In the have heard this line of argument before Wolfram's work by his depiction of flow- context of modeling it is sufficient to from proponents of ESP. fields showing structures characteristics know the rules that effectively describe Let me now explain why despite all of turbulent flow that he had generated the aggregate behavior of a system. These this I consider Wolfram's book an impor­ by CA without incorporating any physi­ models can then be utilized and refined tant one. Science is not best served by cal principles whatsoever. to gain further insight into and knowl­ models which slavishly obey all of our However, these structures were visible edge about the system. But what does wishes by faithfully reproducing what we only when the states of the individual this knowledge consist of? In scientific have programmed into them. Science cells in die grid were averaged over large inquiry one seeks to know what actually needs models that give back more than numbers of cells. In this sense of predict­ happens, not just what the end result what we have put into them. A good way ing averaged behavior, therefore, CA fares looks like. Here Wolfram presents us to stan may be to put in as litde as possi­ not much better than traditional models with a curious argument. He informs us ble, to program into our models the sim­ of turbulence. Claiming a new science that CA's ability to actually reproduce plest possible rules. Wolfram shows that that makes ir.ulitii.ii.il science obsolete is physical phenomena entirely down to simple rules can generate most classes of thus unwarranted; it provides just the microscopic interactions can only be complex behavior and the simplest of another model for studying turbulence. realized when viewed from an as-yet these rules can generate all the other There are many precedents in physics of indefinable higher form of perception rules. Validation of this principle, termed simple discrete models able to provide and analysis. This leads him to make "Principle of Computational Equiv­ correct approximations of complexities of dubious statements such as the follow­ alence" by Wolfram, will be a significant real world phenomena. This in no way ing: the very fact that we have so far step in the journey toward the holy grail implies that these models actually gener­ failed to discover any evidence for of science—the definition of the simple ate the behavior of the system at its extraterrestrial intelligence may itself rules that describe die universe. Wolfram microscopic level. conceivably already be a sign that higher has not accomplished this validation, but Philosophically the real question here forms of perception and analysis may be one can hope.

ers hoaxes perpetrated by respected lumi­ A Tour of the naries like Benjamin Franklin and Mark Twain as well as inveterate pranksters such Halls of Flummery as Joey Skaggs. The book's presentation of BENJAMIN RADFORD the early history of hoaxes is very good and enlightening. Sir John Mandeville, The Museum of Hoaxes: A Collection of Pranks, Stunts, Marco Polo, and other early explorers Deceptions, and Other Wonderful Stories Contrived for the were accused—with good reason—of fak­ Public from the Middle Ages to the New Millennium. ing some of their seminal travel observa­ By Alex Boese. Penguin Putnam, New York. 2002. tions and journals. ISBN 0-525-94678-0. 266 pp. Hardcover, $19.95. The Museum of Hoaxes begins with a good (if arguable) discussion delineating differences between hoaxes, pranks, oaxes and the history of hoaxing Roswell crash, there is hardly a category urban legends, frauds, and tall tales. are important elements in of the unexplained or paranormal that There's some overiap, but he setdes on understanding practical skepti­ does not have a robust history of fraud the careful definition of hoax as "a delib­ H and hoaxing. Alex Boese, a graduate stu­ cism. The very notion that perhaps a erately deceptive act that has succeeded remarkable story or account may not be dent in San Diego and curator of rhe in capturing the attention of the public." entirely (or at all) true is, at its heart, a Museum of Hoaxes Web site, guides Boese provides an insightful discus­ skeptical one. In a way, the history of the teaders through his virtual museum in his sion of the public's role in hoaxing. paranormal closely parallels the history of new book The Museum of Hoaxes. Hoaxes do not occur in a vacuum; rhe hoaxes. From Btgfoot to Spiritualist Some of the hoaxes will be familiar to public's reaction to the hoax is an impor­ mediums, from the Turin Shroud to the longtime SKEPTICAL INQUIRER readers, tant element of rhe hoax. With an histo­ such as the Cardiff Giant (said to be a pet­ rian's perspective, Boese points out that Benjamin Radford is managing editor of rified giant as described in the Bible), the current notions of truth are quite differ­ the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER and writes about Cottingley Fairies, and crop circles. The ent from medieval ones. These days, we hoaxes in his upcoming book Media book, however, also includes a fascinating have a modern sophistication (and desire Mythmakers (2003, Prometheus Books). survey of lesser-known hoaxes. Boese cov­ to discern truth) that might have seemed

54 May/June 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER REVIEWS

bizarre to our ancestors. Truth, after all, is resources. Others, such as Outrage: The hoaxes, such as the literally thousands the basis by which a hoax, tall tale, or Story Behind the Tawana Brawley Hoax, of hoaxes that followed the September other deception is measured. A mutable are exhaustive, detailed analyses of a 11, 2001, attacks and the anthrax-laced (or postmodern) truth leaves little basis particular hoax. But among this lot, letters to politicians (though perhaps upon which to discern fact from fraud. there is usually little discussion of the the book's deadline was too early to "The medieval world treated the concept nature of hoaxes. The Museum of Hoaxes include a discussion of these). of truth allegorically and spiritually, admirably fills the gap between the I was often left wanting more infor­ while we treat it scientifically. Claims exhaustive catalogues of hoaxes and sin­ mation on a given topic or hoax, and it that we would regard as obviously false gle-case studies. The book does a fine was at times frustrating to read an entry |u'u of »ci ving as a reference source; ;; were regarded by the medieval mind as of only a few paragraphs. Still, a book true if they revealed a deeper underlying not only has an index but also lists the size and scope of The Museum of metaphysical meaning about the hoaxes by category and includes an Hoaxes (like any museum) cannot hope world. . . . Public life was highly local­ extensive chapter-by-chapter list of ref­ to be complete and authoritative; new ized and fragmented. Sharing of infor­ erences for further reading. hoaxes occur all the time. The best a mation between communities was spo­ There arc some apparent omissions. hook like this can do is to bring readers radic and unreliable. As a result secrecy, In die section on literary hoaxes, there's a general survey of hoaxes, their nature not openness, became the fountain of no mention of The Amityville Horror, or and perpetrators, and offer some tips on medieval knowledge." Mark Helfrich's 2000 book Naked how to avoid being hoaxed. In that. The Pictures of My Ex-Girlfriends (though There arc many books on hoaxes. Museum of Hoaxes is a valuable skeptical Some, like Gordon Stein's Encyclopedia the story of Sony's fake film reviewer book for both serious research and of Hoaxes and Carl Sifakis's Hoaxes and David Manning is briefly recounted). casual amusement. Scams, are excellent encyclopedic There's also no mention of terrorism

Moral, Religious, and Philosophical Life of Albert Einstein"). The events billed as "performances" explore the Einstein 'Einstein' Exhibit at theme through such means as cabaret, musical narration, and juggling. the American Museum Perhaps one day the distinction between the modern-day museum exhi­ of Natural History bition and its symbiotic gift shop will JERRY KURLANDSKI cease to exist. In the meantime, a pair of heavy glass doors separate this particular exhibition from its fund-raising coun­ terpart. Through those doors you can purchase, of course, Einstein T-shirts and mugs, as well as Einstein Beanie f Einstein hadn't been born, would pedia. What makes the tour worthwhile babies, plates, and refrigerator magnets. is its artful marriage of encyclopedia-like we have had to create him? That's Taken as a whole, the exhibition text with the traditional strengths of Ione of die big unasked questions admirably fulfills its duty to entertain, a museum—photographs, manuscript lurking behind the Einstein exhibition educate, and even inspire. What it lacks, reproductions, and interactive presenta­ now showing at the American Natural however, is any hint of self-examination. tions. The curator, Michael M. Shara, History Museum in New York City. A There is much on Einstein the genius, special program of events, talks, perfor­ has done a fine job; still, there is little mances, and workshops both direcdy and in his show that is going to raise tangentially related to Einsteins life and any eyebrows. Jerry Kurlandski is a software engineer cur­ work runs concurrendy. The same cannot be said of the spe­ rently involved in natural language process­ ing applications. He lives in Morristown, The exhibition proper—sans events, cial program. While many of the talks New Jersey E-mail: jkurlandski- talks, and whatnot—serves as a mixed- have unsurprising themes ("Einstein's Qyahoo.com. "Einstein" began November media biography of the scientist. We Relativity: Past, Present and Future," 15, 2002, and runs tbrougfi August 10. learn the kind of summary information "Einstein: Patents and Inventions"), 2003. The special program ran through that can be picked up from an article in, other have more intriguing tides ("The April 7. See www.amnh.orgfor details. for example. The World Book Encyclo­ Soul of Einstein: A Dialogue on the

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2003 55 BOOK REVIEWS

but no mention of Einstein the pop the magic formula" E=mc2. From amalgamated role of scientist, sage, and icon, though the latter would seem to Barthes's observation we can safely con­ saint? Darwin, perhaps? I am inclined have as large a part in the exhibition as clude that, even while he was still alive, to believe that the post could only be the former. In his essay "Einstein's Einstein the genius had to share the filled by an American still alive after Brain," written around the time of the limelight with Einstein the pop star. World War II, when advanced methods scientist's death in 1955, Roland Barthes What Einstein the human being of mass communication came into exis­ pointed out the discord between pho­ thought about all this is not discussed in tence. Perhaps, then, the answer to the tographs and cartoons of Einstein. the exhibition and its programs. question is No—no other scientist Typically, photographs showed him Which brings us to the question would have enjoyed and suffered the before a blackboard covered with com­ asked at the beginning of this review. If same fame as Einstein. plex mathematical equations, whereas Einstein hadn't been born, would some In any case, after enjoying and appre­ cartoons depicted the theoretical physi­ other scientist have been elevated to the ciating this exhibition, one nevertheless cist "having just written on an empty same position? And if so, who would regrets that the question—or others like blackboard, as if without preparation, have been thrust into this curious, it—is not even raised. SCIENCE BEST SELLERS Top Ten Best Sellers in New York

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56 May/June J003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER NEW BOOKS

Listing does not preclude future review. pp. S29, hardcover. A collection of essays by Suite 200, Toronto, ON M5E 1M6. 2003. 296 eminent scientists and science educators, pp. $24.99. softcover. Two Canadian investiga­ The Inner Eye: .Social including Bruce Alberts, Howard Gardner, tive journalists examine chiropraaic. They Intelligence in Evolution. Margaret Geller, Stephen Jay Gould. George explore its roots, its treatment methods, the Nicholas Humphrey. Keyworth, Lawrence Krauss, Leon Lederman, misleading information disseminated about Oxford University Press, Sheila Tobias, and James Trefil. They all involve chiropractic care, and the taxpayer money used 198 Madison Ave., New suggestions for improving the standards of sci­ to pay for treatments. They also explain how to York, NY 10016, 2002. entific literacy throughout the world and sci­ protect yourself from 188 pp. $12.95. softcover. ence education in the United States. The essays dangerous adjustments Where does consciousness were invited in honor and celebration of Nobel and bogus treatments. come from? What is it? laureate physicist Leon Lederman, who has f NCYClOPfDU Of Where is it taking us? The theoretical psycholo­ devoted much of his life to SCIENCE Van Nostrand's Con­ gist Nicholas Humphrey presents a short work these concerns. cise Encyclopedia of growing out of a mid-1980s scries of U.K. tele­ Science, fcdited by vision programs on the evolution of human The Science Wars: UU1UHD9 ^iJ Christopher G. DePree consciousness. Includes a discussion of the evo­ Debating Scientific Know­ and Alan Axelrod. lution of intelligence and its relation to social ledge and Technology. Wiley Publishers. 605 life and his theory about the development and Edited by Keith Parsons. Third Avenue, New York. NY 10158. 2003. uses of human consciousness. Prometheus Books, 59 820 pp. $40, hardcover. Designed for "anyone John Glenn Drive, who needs speedy access to authoritative infor­ The Mind Made Flesh: Amherst, NY 14288. 2003. 325 pp. $21, paper. mation on a large number of scientific disci­ Frontiers of Psychology From creationists on the right to postmod­ plines," this encyclopedia claims to cover every and Evolution. Nicholas ernists on the left, science as a way of knowing key concept, theory, and area of research in sci­ Humphrey. Oxford Uni­ has been subjected to intense critical scrutiny. ence. Though well-written, many ol the 5.000- versity Press, 198 Madison Editor Parsons, a philosopher (University of plus entries are nl dubious scientific impor­ Ave.. New York. NY Houston) and author, oilers the best arguments tance—why is the quetzal bird ("the best known 10016. 2002. 366 pp. the science critics have presented and some of of all trogons") included, and why is hall a page SI8.95, softcover. A new the spirited defenses of science in response. of space spent illustrating it? Useful and accessi­ collection of essays, lec­ Other essays go deeper to analyze the underly- ble but with spotty organization. tures, and articles dealing with the uneasy rela­ ing issues. The book is organized into foui tion between minds and bodies. The focus is parts: The Constructivist Challenge. Feminists What Your Astronomy Textbook Won't Tell centered on die author's longstanding interest in on Science, Science and Postmodernism, and You: Clear, Savvy Insights for Master)-. evolutionary psychology, which he feels has Conservative Critiques ot Science. Scholars Norman Sperling. Foreword by David Levy. emerged as "the most fertile field of all psychol­ whose writings are represented range from Everything in the Universe, 413 Poinstrtia ogy." Perennial issues of consciousness, justice, Bruno Latour, Sandra Harding, and Phillip Avenue, San Mateo, CA 94403 (e-mail: wont- social understanding, and spirituality are dealt Johnson on the critics' side to Paul R. Gross, [email protected]). 2002. 183 pp. $23.70, softcover. with. Throughout, Humphreys takes issue with Normal Levitt, Steven Weinberg, and Robert T. An interesting approach to teaching good received ideas. Pennock on behalf of science. astronomy by discussing things that won't be discussed in formal textbooks: misconceptions, blunders, confusing jargon, how bogus claims Science Literacy for the Twenty-First Spin Doctors: The Chiropractic Industry arc debunked, things we don't vet know, and so Century. Edited by Stephanie Pace Marshall, Under Examination. Paul Benedetti and on. All are short and lively. Judith A. Scheppler, and Michael J. Wayne MacPhail. With a foreword by Dr. Palmisano. Prometheus Books, 59 John Glenn Brad Stewart and an afterword by Dr. Stephen —Kendrick Frasier Drive. Amherst. NY 14228-2197. 2003. 321 Barrett. The Dundurn Group. 8 Market St., and Benjamin Radford

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SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2003 57 FOLLOW-UP

How Not To Review Mediumship Research

GARY E. SCHWARTZ

ost rational scientists agree that maintain his belief drat die phenomenon accurate and informed decision. What we the credibility and integrity of in question is impossible? As I document strive for is seeking the truth as reflected Ma review of a body of research below, Hyman resorts to (consciously in Harvard's motto "Veritas." is that it includes all die important infor­ and / or unconsciously) selectively ignor­ I appreciate Hyman's effort to outline mation, not just the reviewer's favored ing important information dial is incon­ some of the possible errors and limitations information. Ray Hyman's review "How sistent with his personal beliefs. in the mediumship experiments discussed Not To Test Mediums" (January/February Selective ignoring of facts is not in The Afterlife Experiments. However, as 2002) is a textbook example of the selec­ acceptable in science. It reflects a bias that Hyman emphasizes in his review, I do tive ignoring or dismissing of historical, obviates the purpose of research and disal­ "strongly disagree" with him about his procedural, and empirical facts to fits lows new discoveries. I have made die interpretations. The two fundamental dis­ statement that the survival consciousness one's preferred interpretation. The result agreements I have with Hyman's argu­ hypothesis does account for the totality of is an inaccurate, mistaken, and biased set ments are: of conclusions of the current data. the research data to date. Of course, this does not make the survival hypodiesis the 1. Hyman has chosen to ignore numer­ Hyman is a distinguished professor ous historical, procedural, and emeritus from the Department of only or correct hypothesis—my state­ empirical (acts that are inconsistent Psychology at the University of Oregon, ment reflects die status of die evidence to with his interpretive descriptions of who has had a longstanding career as a date, not necessarily the truth about the our experiments; and skeptic focused on uncovering potential underlying process. This is why more 2. Hyman has chosen not to acknowl­ research is needed. edge the totality of the findings fol­ flaws in parapsychology research. Hyman lowing Occam's heuristic principle as is well skilled in carefully going through Note diat I do not use die word a means of integrating the total set of die conventional checklist of potential "believe" in relationship to the statement. findings collected to daic. sources of experimental errors and limita­ This is not a belief. It is an empirical Space precludes my providing a tions in research designs. observation derived from experiments. detailed and diorough commentary here Hyman's overall appraisal of the It is correct that some of die single- illustrating how pervasively Hyman research conducted to date is implied by blind and double-blind studies have ignores and omits important information. his conclusion: "Probably no other weaknesses—we discuss the experimental (An extensive commentary has been pub­ extended program in psychical research limitations at some length in our pub­ lished on various Web sites, including deviates so much from accepted norms of lished papers as well as in The Afterlife www.openmindsciences.com.) Four sam­ scientific methodology as does this one." Experiments. However, these weaknesses ples of important ignored facts are pro­ Is Hyman's summary conclusion based do not justify dismissing die totality of vided below. upon a thorough review of the total body the data as mistaken or meaningless. of research? Or does it reflect the system­ Quite the contrary, an honest and accu­ Selective Ignoring of Historical, atic ignoring of important historical, pro­ rate analysis reveals that the data, in total, Procedural, and Empirical Facts cedural, and empirical facts—a cognitive deserve serious consideration. Veritas 1: In his review, Hyman failed to bias used by the reviewer in order to Our research presents all the find­ mention the important historical fact that ings—the hits and the misses, the creative our mediumship research actually began Gary E. Schwartz is with the Human aspects of the designs and dieir limita­ with double-blind experimental designs. Energy Systems Laboratory, University of tions^—so that the reader can make an For example, die published experiment Arizona, Tucson.

58 May/June 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER FOLLOW-UP

referred to in The Afterlife Experiments as Hyman fails to mention mat NIH, for mation, by chance, could fit multiple sit­ "From Here To There and Back Again" example, requires that investigators who ters—an erroneous conclusion that can be with Susy Smith and Laurie Campbell apply for research grants calculate statisti­ reached only if we do what Hyman did was completed almost a year before cal power and sample size to determine and accept the information selectively. we conducted die more naturalistic multi- what n is required to obtain a statistically medium/multi-sitter experiments in­ significant result. This is accepted scien­ Veritas 4: Hyman's conclusion that expe­ volving John Edward, Suzanne tific practice and is required for obtaining rienced cold readers can readily replicate Northrop, George Anderson, Anne NIH funding. the kinds of specific information obtained Gehman, and Laurie Campbell. The early Smith-Campbell double-blind studies did not suffer from possible sub­ tle visual or auditory sensory leakage or Just as I don't take the claims of the rater bias—and strong positive findings mediums on faith, I don't take the claims were obtained. of the magicians on faith either. Our decision to subsequently conduct more naturalistic designs (which are inherendy less controlled), was made par­ tially for practical reasons (e.g., develop­ Conclusion: Hyman would rather dis­ under the conditions of our experiments ing professional trust with highly visible miss the fact that the highly accurate rat­ is mistaken at best and deceptive at worst. mediums) and pardy for scientific ones ings obtained in the single-blind pub­ Under experimental conditions where (e.g., we wished to examine under labora­ lished study for GD were indeed repli­ (a) professional cold readers do not know tory conditions how mediumship is often cated in the double-blind published die identity of die sitters (i.e., cheating is conducted in die field). study, than to admit the possibility that ruled out), and (b) cold readers are not Conclusion: Hyman makes a factually individual differences in sitter characteris­ allowed to see or speak with the sitters erroneous criticism when he reports diat tics are an important and genuine factor (i.e., cueing and feedback is ruled out), it double-blind experiments were initiated in mediumship research. is (c) impossible for cold readers to use only late in our research program, and whatever pre-obtained sitter specific therefore makes a serious interpretative Veritas 3: It is curious that among the information they might have obtained, mistake when he decides tliat all the early many examples of readings provided in and (d) impossible for cold readers to use data can be dismissed because they were The Afterlife Experiments, one early subset their feedback tricks to help them get not conducted double-blind. (cluster/pattern) of facts happened to fit information from the sitters. Hyman nicely. It is true that mention of At the two-day meeting I convened in Veritas 2: In an exploratory double-blind the "Big H," a "father-like figure," an Los Angeles of seven highly experienced long distance mediumship experiment "HN sound" would fit Hyman's father professional mentalist magicians and cold where George Dalzell (GD) was one of six like it did the sitter's husband mentioned readers, they all agreed that they could not sitters and Laurie Campbell (LC) was the in the book. apply their conventional mentalist tricks medium, Hyman states "because nothing Hyman chose not to report the fact under these stria experimental condi­ significant was found, die results do not that many other pieces of specific infor­ tions. However, a vocal subset (Hyman warrant claiming a successful replication mation also reported for the "Big H" did was one of rhe three), made the unsub­ of previous findings." not fit Hyman but did fit the sitter pre­ stantiated claim that if dicy had a year or However, Hyman minimizes the fact cisely. Moreover, Hyman consistently two to practice, they might be able to fig­ that the number of subjects in this failed to report scores of examples from ure out a way how to fake what the medi­ exploratory experiment was small («=6). readings reported verbatim in the book ums were doing. More importandy, Hyman fails to cite a that were highly unusual and unique to My response to this vocal subset was important conclusion mat we reached in individual sitters (e.g., John Edward see­ simple. It was "show me." Just as I don't me discussion: "If die binary 66 percent ing a deceased grandmother having two take the claims of me mediums on faith, I figure approximates (1) LC's actual ability large poodles, a black one and a white don't take die claims of die magicians on to conduct double-blind readings, cou­ one, and die white one "tore up the faith either. I am a researcher. Mentalist pled widi (2) the six sitter's ability, on die house"). magicians who make these claims will average, to score transcripts double-blind, Conclusion: The reason Hyman railed have to "sit in the research chair" and die 66 percent figure would require only to mention these numerous examples is show us that diey can do what diey claim an n of 25 sitters to reach statistical signif­ because they contradict the conclusion they can do. icance (e.g., p< .01)." Hyman chose to accept—that the infor­ Thus far, the few cold readers who

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2003 59 FOLLOW-UP

have made these claims have refused to his preference is to propose mat the set of So what is the truth at the present be experimentally tested. They have findings collected to date must involve a time, based upon the available data? been unwilling to demonstrate in the complex set of subtle cues providing When the totality of die history, proce­ laboratory that they can't do what the information in some studies, cold reading dures, and findings to date are examined mediums do under these experimental techniques being used in some studies, honestly and comprehensively—not selectively sampled to fit one's particular theoretical bias—somediing anomalous appears to be occurring in die medi­ To me the question of whether or not mediums umship research, at least with a select are obtaining anomalous information is a group of evidence-based mediums. Over and over, from experiment to purely scientific one, to be revealed through experiment, findings have been observed a program of systematic research. diat deserve the term extraordinary. In our latest double-blind, multi-center experi­ ments, stable individual differences in sit­ ters have been observed that replicate conditions; and they have been unwill­ rater bias providing inflated scores in across laboratories and experiments. The ing to demonstrate at a later date that some studies, and chance findings in observations are not going away—even with multi-center, double-blind testing. their performance can improve substan­ some studies. The idea that mediums tially with practice. might be obtaining anomalous informa­ Hyman once told me, "I have no Conclusion: The claim that cold tion that can most simply and parsimo­ control over my beliefs." When I asked reading can account for the research niously be explained in terms of die con­ him what he would conclude if a perfect findings is not supported when the tinuance of consciousness is presumed large sample multi-center double-blind experimental procedures are honestly categorically to be false by Hyman until experiment was conducted, his response taken into account. proven odierwisc. was, "I would want to see your major I make no such categorical assump­ multi-center, double-blind experiment Failure to Integrate Information tions, one way or die other. To me the replicated a few times by odier centers and Appreciate the Process of question of whedicr or not mediums are before drawing any conclusions." Discovery obtaining anomalous information is a This conversation is revealing In most areas of science, no single experi­ purely scientific one, to be revealed psychologically. Until multiple perfect ment is perfect or complete. Different through a program of systematic research. experiments are performed and pub­ experiments address different conditions Such research must be conducted by mul­ lished, Hyman would rather believe that and different alternative explanations to tiple laboratories. The reason for publish­ die totality of the findings must be due different degrees. The challenge is to con­ ing findings, as diey emerge, is to encour­ to some combination of fraud, cold read­ nect the dots of the available data and age odier investigators to conduct their ing, rater bias, experimenter error, or integrate the complex set of findings own experiments, and then integrate the chance—even if this requires diat he selectively ignores important aspects of using the fewest number of explanations totality of the findings. the history, designs, and findings in (i.e., Occam's razor). However, the truth is, it is impossible order to hold on to his belief that he Hyman reveals in his review that he to integrate the totality of die findings in (or we) are being "fooled." learned as a teenager that it was easy for any area of science if one selectively (con­ Why spend the time and money con­ him to fool many people widi palm read­ sciously or unconsciously) ignores those ducting multiple multi-center, double- specific findings diat do not fit one's pref­ ing. It is also quite easy to fool many peo­ blind experiments unless mere are suffi­ ple widi fake mediumship, as anyone erences or biases. cient dieoretical, experimental, and social trained in cold reading will tell you. I have reasons for doing so? Scientific Integrity and Changing studied a number of books on cold read­ The critical question is, "Is it possible One's Beliefs ing and have taken some classes on cold diat consistent widi die actual totality of reading myself. However, just because it is I admit, quite adamantly, that I do have die data collected to date—viewed histor­ possible sometimes to be fooled (espe­ one fundamental bias—my bias is ically (e.g., the observations of William cially by die masters of magic) doesn't to use the scientific method to discover James) as well as across disciplines (e.g., mean diat everyone is fooling you. the truth, whatever it is. Discovering from andiropology to astrophysics)—diat Hyman reluctandy agrees mat it is the truth cannot be achieved through future research may lead us to come to die improbable diat the totality of our find­ selective reporting of history, proce­ conclusion that consciousness is inti­ ings can be explained by fraud. As a result, dures, and data. mately related to energy and information.

60 May/lune 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER FOLLOW-UP and diat consciousness, as an expression For example, Hyman's review begins regardless of die specific research area diat of dynamically patterned energy and by stating that I was a professor at Yale is being reviewed or the specific person information, persists in space like die light University for twenty-eight years—die doing die reviewing. from distant stars?" fact is, I was at Yale for twelve years. If the Note diat my argument is not widi This is ultimately an empirical ques­ SKEPTICAL INQUIRER had not chosen to Hyman as a person, nor with the tion; it will be answered by data, one way keep Hyman's review secret, and had SKEPTICAL INQUIRER as a publication. or die other. If positive data are asked me to fact check Hyman's review, I My concern is about die process by which obtained—and I emphasize if—accepting would have gladly done so, and therefore Hyman has written his review, and die the data will require diat we be able to enabled both the magazine and the responsibility of SKEPTICAL INQUIRER to change our beliefs as a function of what the data reveal. The Afterlife Experiments reviewer to correct at least the obvious decrease the likelihood that this kind of was written to encourage people to keep errors of fact. Qeariy, iittie mistakes, com­ mistaken review will be published in die an open mind about what the future pounded by big mistakes, do not make future. There is a bigger lesson here. It is research may reveal. for a credible publication or review. worth considering, and correcting. I am taking a strong position about Epilogue: What is a Magazine's Acknowledgments accuracy of reporting here not because of Responsibility? the ultimate validity of the survival I diank a number of my colleagues who have If the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER wishes to be hypothesis (i.e., whether it is true or not, graciously taken die time to provide me with viewed as being a credible publication, since that is an experimental question) useful feedback about this commentary. They more like the Philadelphia Inquirer than but because of the nature of scientific include Peter Hayes, Ph.D., Katherine Creath, the National Enquirer, it should take reviewing process itself. Ph.D., Stephen Grenard, Ph.D.. Donald responsibility for fact checking its articles The selective ignoring and omission of Watson, M.D., Emily Kelly, Ph.D., Lonnie and correcting mistakes caused by simple important information cannot be con­ Nelson, MA, and Montague Keen. The com­ errors and/or the selective ignoring of doned in cither reviewing or publishing. ments provided here are diose of the author, important information. It must be exposed and understood. not necessarily diose of my colleagues.

Hyman's Reply to Schwartz's 'How Not To Review Mediumship Research'

RAY HYMAN

cannot, of course, respond in detail my assessment of the research. I chose to iment with the mediums Susy Smith within the allotted space to each of focus my discussions on those items that and Laurie Campbell that "was com­ ISchwartz's arguments. Instead, I will Schwartz and his colleagues had empha­ pleted almost a year before we con­ comment on his major points and con­ sized as the strongest outcomes amongst ducted the more naturalistic multi- clude with a general reaction to his their findings. 1 have refereed and medium/multi-sitter experiments in­ rebuttal. reviewed research reports for more dian volving John Edward, Suzanne 1. "Hyman resorts to . . . selectively fifty years for many of the major scien­ Northrop, George Anderson, Anne ignoring important information that is tific publications and for major granting Gehman, and Laurie Campbell. The inconsistent widi his personal beliefs." agencies. I applied die same standards to early Smith-Campbell double-blind my evaluation of the afterlife experi­ studies did not suffer from possible sub­ In preparing my critique of his ments that I have used in my other tle visual or auditory sensory leakage or research program, I not only read The assessments. rater bias—and strong positive findings Afterlife Experiments carefully, I also were obtained." scrutinized in detail every report of his 2. ". . . Hyman failed to mention the research that was available. It was not important historical fact that our medi- possible to discuss each separate piece of umship research actually began with Ray Hyman is professor emeritus of psy­ information in my critique. I took each double-blind experimental designs." chology. University of Oregon. E-mail: item into account, however, in making As his example he refers to his exper- rayhym @msn. com.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2003 61 FOLLOW-UP

This is a peculiar example to use as a the experiment was subjective. medium two tries at matching the draw­ model of a controlled, double-blind During the sittings with Medium ings, nor do the experimenters tell us experiment. The experiment involved Two, all the experimenters were blind as how they justify asking the medium to having Susy Smith, designated as to which drawing was associated with redo her matching. Probably these and Medium One, apparently contact four which departed individual. (Although it other questionable aspects of the proce­ deceased persons: her own mother, is plausible that one might be able to dure arc moot given that the possibility William James, Linda Russek's father, make some reasonable guesses, given the of blinding was compromised. and Schwartz's father. Smith made a characters of each of the departed indi­ Schwartz and his colleagues, in their drawing for each of these departed indi­ viduals, which type of drawing would go published paper, describe this as an viduals supposedly with their input. She with each one.) Unfortunately, the "exploratory study." The proceedings seem to have been improvised at each stage. Certainly, no competent investi­ gator would plan to unnecessarily com­ promise experimental blinding at the Schwartz has really not answered my criticisms. two most critical points of the data col­ A close reading reveals that he does not deny the lection. Nor does it make sense to design an experiment wherein the various failings I have divulged in his research. medium is given two chances at getting the matching correct. I simply was applying the principle of charity in not discussing this botched experiment. also made a "control" drawing. Laurie experimenters then make another seri­ 3. "In an exploratory double-blind Campbell, designated as Medium Two, ous, and completely unnecessary, blun­ long-distance mediumship experiment was then requested to independently der when it came time to see if Medium ... Hyman states 'because nothing sig­ attempt to contact these departed indi­ Two could accurately match the draw­ nificant was found, the results do not viduals and, using the information ings with the appropriate individual. warrant claiming a successful replication obtained from them, to try to match The experimenters brought Medium of previous findings.' However, Hyman each drawing to the associated departed Two and Medium One together. minimizes die fact that die number of individual. Campbell attempted to con­ Medium One then displayed the draw­ subjects in this exploratory experiment tact the departed entities during two ses­ ings she had made to represent each was small («=6). More importantly, sions in the presence of three experi­ individual. Medium Two then Hyman fails to cite a(n) important con­ menters. Campbell is described as being attempted to match the drawings to the clusion that we reached in the discus­ "blind" to personalities of the four de­ appropriate sources in the presence of sion: If the binary 66 percent figure parted individuals. However Schwartz, Medium One. Ironically, the experi­ approximates (1) LC's actual ability to who was not blind to the personalities of menters openly admit that this could conduct double-blind readings, coupled these entities, was not only present dur­ allow clues about the correct matching with (2) the six sitters' ability, on the ing these sessions but actively trying to through the "Clever Hans" phenome­ average, to score transcripts double- convey this information (through non. They dismiss this as possibility blind, the 66 percent figure would "telepathy") to Campbell. This unneces­ because Campbell was able to correctly require only an n of 25 sitters to reach sary blunder compromises whatever match only one of the five drawings to statistical significance (e.g. < .01)." blinding would have existed between its appropriate source. This pan of Schwartz's rebuttal, like Medium Two and the personalities of At this point in the experiment the all the odier parts, strikes me as both the departed individuals. No psychic report becomes especially murky. bizarre and off die mark. First, we need investigator would be surprised if Laurie Presumably, the experiment has failed. to clear up some mistakes and/or mis­ Campbell came up with some correct However, the experimenters inexplica­ understandings. Schwartz confuses the information such as die gender and bly have Medium Two try again to sample statistic with the population (or other descriptors of the departed indi­ match die drawings to dieir appropriate hypothesized true value). Given twenty- viduals under these conditions. source. This second attempt is made five sitters and a sample outcome of sev­ Another defect of this phase of die after she is shown an explicit summary enteen correct identifications (success experiment is that no provisions were of her comments about die pictures and rate of 68 percent) of their actual read­ made to use a systematic and objective die departed individuals. Campbell cor- ings (which, given the discrete nature of method for assessing die accuracy of recdy matches the five drawings (includ­ die binomial distribution is the closest Medium Two's descriptions. The evalua­ ing die control) in this second attempt. we can get to 66 percent correct) die tion of the information for this stage of No reason is given for giving the one-tailed probability would be .054

62 May/June 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER FOLLOW-UP and not less than .01 as Schwartz claims. In addition to greatly enhanced sensi­ to show that this explanation is correct. Regardless of the correct probability tivity, this would have avoided the Rather, the burden of proof should be on value here, this has little to do with unfortunate situation where each sitter Schwartz to show, as the claimant, that he power. Schwartz is hypothesizing that was rating his or her own reading has ruled out this and other possible the true (population) proportion of cor­ against a foil that differed for each rater. mundane explanations. This is what good rect binary choices in this situation is Another plus would have been the experimental methodology, which is so close to the 67 percent (4 out of 6) that opportunity to determine which read­ far lacking in the afterlife experiments, is he observed in his sample. If, indeed, ings had more general appeal indepen­ intended to accomplish. this value is correct, then, given his use dent of any specific information pecu Unfortunately, I do not have space of a one-tailed test and a significance liar to a given sitter. to respond to other specifics of level of .01, the probability of getting a In his longer rebuttal to my critique Schwartz's rebuttal. In his rebuttal he significant outcome with twenty-five which he posted on the Web (see his attributes motives, preferences, and sitters would be slightly more than reference in his rebuttal) Schwartz biases to me. These are based on 0.54. To have a reasonable power (say claims he actually predicted that GD assumption unsupported by facts. For close to 90 percent) one would need would successfully differentiate his own example, he characterizes me as "reluc­ over 100 sitters. reading from the accompanying foil tantly" agreeing that fraud is unlikely. reading. The claim that this particular Schwartz appears to be begging the In fact, I have no reluctance at all to outcome was predicted does not square question here. He begins by observing make such an assertion. He attributes with the opening sentence of the report that four out of six sitters correctly iden­ certain preferences to me that are, in tified which of two readings was meant wherein the experimenters state, "This some cases, just not true. He also is fac­ for them. Because of the small sample, paper reports an unanticipated replica­ tually incorrect on some matters. He this outcome is consistent with a num­ tion and extension. . . . says that I was one of the group of cold ber of possibilities including the chance I have already pointed out in my cri­ readers who declared that I could, with value of 50 percent. If he had obtained tique how Schwartz has an unusually lib­ training, duplicate what his mediums the same proportion of correct hits with eral interpretation of "replication." Not had accomplished in his laboratory. a larger sample, then it would have been only is the statistical and experimental evi­ This is wrong. I deliberately refrained significant. However, since we cannot dence suspect, but the qualitative analysis from such a commitment. My major tell what the true proportion is from a of die actual reading for GD in die sec­ sample outcome based on only six cases, ond experiment does not overlap in any point during the meeting with him on we have no basis for predicting the out­ important respect with the reading in die cold reading was that the determination come for a larger sample. His argument earlier experiment. In particular, none of of whether his mediums are using cold reduces to the trivial one: If the true the apparently striking examples of reading is a separate matter from the proportion is 67 percent then we will be names, events, and places that are question of whether they were convey­ able to get a significant outcome with a reported for the first reading are in the ing any information of a paranormal larger sample. From his actual outcome, second reading. I agree widi Schwartz that nature. If he wanted to study the role of we can just as well say: If the true pro­ the outcome of this "double blind" exper­ cold reading in the readings given by his portion is 50 percent (and this, too, is iment is consistent with "individual dif­ mediums, that was an experimental consistent with his data), then he will ferences in sitter characteristics." goal that was separate from determining very likely not get a significant outcome However, borrowing from Schwartz's if his mediums are providing evidence with a larger sample. propensity to resort to Occam's Razor, I for the survival of consciousness. believe it is prudent to suggest a much I find it difficult to understand why Nor did I conclude, contrary to more mundane explanation. We need Schwartz considers this point worthy of Schwartz's implication, that his medi­ only assume two very plausible and non- mention. Of course a binary outcome ums were using cold reading. I did extraordinary assumptions to account for with only six trials has very low sensitiv­ observe—and I specifically emphasized the results: 1) Luck: GD had a 50-50 ity. However, he did not rely on this out­ that this was a subjective opinion—that chance of choosing the correct reading; 2) come. He used two other measures, the 1 could see little difference between the Rater bias: given diat he has chosen the number of dazzle shots and the hits and utterings of his mediums and those of correct reading, he would show a strong misses, which are clearly much more the typical psychic reader. I want to response bias to give high marks to the sensitive. These also failed to provide emphasize again, it is not for me, or chosen reading and low marks to die overall significance. For these measures other critics, to show that his mediums rejected one. Note diat this is consistent (as well as for the actual choice of the are using cold reading or some other with the qualitative evidence dial 1 pro­ relevant reading), the overall sensitivity ploys. The burden of proof is on vided in my critique. However, note that would have been greatly enhanced if the burden of proof is not upon the critic Schwartz to show that he has convinc­ each sitter actually rated all six readings. ingly eliminated such possibilities.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/lune 2003 63 FOLLOW-UP

So far as I can tell, Schwartz has does not justify drawing strong conclu­ actually assess how much of this is just really not answered my criticisms. A sions); and 4) that taken in their totality coincidence. Furthermore, even the close reading reveals that he does not the experiments somehow provide pow­ most specific and concrete match is deny the various failings I have divulged erful evidence for anomalous communi­ problematical because practically no in his research. Instead, he defends the cation even if the individual experi­ constraints are placed upon the sitter in departures from proper experimental ments are flawed (actually, repeatedly finding a suitable match (e.g., it can be methodology on a number of grounds: making similar mistakes from experi­ a dead or a living person; it can be some­ 1) he and his colleagues were aware of ment to experiment compounds rather one close to the sitter or a mere acquain­ these defects and actually admitted so in than compensates for the errors). tance; etc.). No actual check is made as their reports (but such admissions do Despite the deficiencies in his exper­ to how close the match actually is. My not somehow neutralize the defects); 2) iments, Schwartz seems convinced that point here is that Schwartz really has there were practical reasons such as his mediums have provided, in some provided us with nothing to explain. We wanting to provide a more naturalistic cases, specific and unique information do not know if he has produced context (but this does not excuse using including names, places, etc., that the anything worth taking seriously until he inappropriate control comparisons, fail­ critics cannot explain away. For one can convincingly demonstrate that he ing to correct for rater bias, using inap­ thing, these apparently specific items are has obtained his data under method­ propriate probability and statistical much fuzzier than he believes. His ologically appropriate conditions. computations, etc.); 3) some of the examples are selected just because they Science demands this in the conven­ "defects" were deliberately included to appeared to contain such specifics. This tional fields of inquiry. We should check on certain questions (but this raises the difficult question of how to demand no less from Schwartz.

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64 May/June 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

such shabby thinking in the first place. Mysticism" has been published in die Spring Schwartz's work at the University of Arizona 2002 issue of the Scientific Review of is hardly limited to "past-life" considera­ Alternative Medicine. tions; he has been deeply involved with the I would think that the public exposure of mystical alternative medicine projects of the these psychedelic spiritualist networks is at University of Arizona's other shabby thinker least is effective a way to deal with obvious Andrew Weil as well, serving as Senior irrationalists like Schwartz as the meticulous Research Advisor to Weil's program. point-by-point rebuttal of Ray Hyman. One common denominator is Schwartz's Schwartz, like all paranormalists, has an infi­ and Weil's education at Harvard in the psy­ nite capacity to spew out defective research. chedelic 1960s—when chemical paths to Is it not better to expose the very roots of the "creativity were .ill the rage. Weii, of course, detective "vr""f»g icsdr rather than spend can properly be called a psychedelic mystic; he our own limited time constantly rebutting admits he still uses LSD to tune his creative his nonsense? "natural mind" and recently has been the object of ridicule for his assertions that LSD is E. Patrick Curry an effective treatment for cat allergies. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania Has a psychedelic cult been established at the University of Arizona? Indeed, in 2001, Ray Hyman has exposed the flaws in Gary psychiatrist Dr. Stanislav Grof, the leading guru of paranormal psychedelicism, deliv­ Schwartz's claim to demonstrate that medi­ ered a Grand Rounds lecture to the Depart­ ums can communicate with the dead. Gary Schwartz's Strange ment of Psychiatry titled "Psychology of the Supported bv public funds. Schwartz and his Research at Arizona Future: Lessons for Modern Consciousness research methods also inform the academic Research." Grof then met with a research "integrative medicine" movement. As a col­ In Ray Hyman's "How Not to Test team purporting to be studying the use of league of alternative medicine guru Andrew Mediums" (January/February 2002) he psilocybin for treatment of Obsessive Weil at the University of Arizona, Schwartz states that "in August 2001, [Gary] Schwartz Compulsive Disorder. This questionable contributes to claims dial "conventional" assembled a panel of seven experts on cold research is a project of the Multidisciplinary medicine is preeminent only because it is reading.. . . Association for Psychedelic Studies—a "politically dominant," that the modern clas­ 1 could quibble on how Schwartz and/ Groffian organization that endorses psychc- sification of diseases refers to "Western dis­ or Hyman would define "expert" in this delics to amplify paranormal powers. The orders," that modern physicians arc unaware University of Arizona's research team, as part context, but won't, as I was one of those of emergent properties, that they arc unlikely of their "research" preparation, underwent assembled. And, based on that two-day expe­ to be open to "new paradigms." and that Grofs hallucinogenic psychotherapy called rience, I thought I'd offer some comments they do not "emphasize healing the person as Holotropic Breathwork! on the article: a whole" or understand that "a given disease Ray Hyman and 1 have long shared a Another product of 1960s-1970s psyche- may manifest at the spiritual level as well as mutual respect for one another, but wc do not delicism. Dr. Lewis Mehl-Madrona, has just on the physical plane." As an antidote to always agree on various topics. This is one been added as Coordinator of Integrative such failings, Schwartz, Weil, and their col­ such case, as I feel Hyman was far too gener­ Psychiatry to Andrew Weil's research team, leagues offer traditional Chinese Medicine, ous in assessing The Afterlife Experiments. funded by the National Center for Comple­ Ayurvedic Medicine, Native American Medicine, and homeopathy. Gary Schwartz is an engaging, even mentary and Alternative Medicine. Mehl-Madrona, a mystic with an extraordinarily checkered career, is aiso a product of the charming fellow, but his understanding of Since these disciplines are not readily Grof-Esalen Institute circles. Known for cold reading is remarkably minimal (and amenable to study by "Western reductionist" his book Coyote Medicine, his medical largely mistaken), and it seems diat he has methods. Schwartz and Weil argued (in the practice might best be called "pcyote" medi­ little knowledge or interest in the fundamen­ January 28. 2002, Archives of Internal cine. (See SI July/August 2000. "SRAM tals of protocol design and the interpretation Medicine), they must be studied in a "sys­ Articles Lead to Alternative Medical Doctors tems theory framework." A standardized of probability. Professor Schwartz is not a Resignation.") acupuncture regimen oughtn't be studied as stupid man. However, given his seemingly a treatment for patients with asthma, for willful ignorance combined with astonishing example. Rather, patients with the "Western" hubris, he might as well be. Mehl-Madrona and Schwartz will be sharing keynote responsibilities at an diagnosis of asthma should be individually diagnosed and treated by practitioners of Max Maven upcoming conference exploring "clinical Traditional Chinese Medicine, using what­ [email protected] practices integrating mind, body, and spirit" at Arizona State this coming February. ever diagnostic and therapeutic options they deem appropriate—however numerous and Gary Schwartz regularly shares mystical disparate these may be. Outcomes must not Missing from Ray Hyman's effective dissec­ conference billings with Grof and his follow­ be reductionist either in addition to "dis­ tion of Gary Schwartz's past-life experi­ ers, as any Internet search can verify. ease-specific conventional outcomes" there ments was any explanation of how My substantive study of Stanislav Grofs should aiso be "psychological, social, and Schwartz, with all his academic credentials, influence on alternative medicine. "Carl spiritual outcomes in the same study." careened into such oudandish views and Jung. Stanislav Grof and New Age Medical

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2003 65 LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

The only trouble, the authors grant, is application of litigation paradigms to the I frequently encounter misapplications of that these schemes will introduce so many skeptical inquiry into claims of the paranor­ legal reasoning other than those described by variables that it will be impossible to draw mal, he has failed to do so, and accordingly Richard Fisher. A common example is invok­ any conclusions. No problem: "given many the jury should be directed to dismiss his case! ing a variation of "innocent until proven choices, the patient's preferences for the The pith and substance of his argument guilty," for example, UFO sightings are real course and sequencing of action guide the seems to be that the standard of proof of para­ until proven wrong. This ploy, of course, ultimate decision-making process." normal phenomena should be one rhat would effectively places the burden of disproof on Likewise, the difficulty in conducting ran­ satisfy ordinary people sitting on a jury. This science. Criminal defendants are innocent until proven guilty, but ideas arc wrong until domized, controlled trials under such condi­ standard depends on "what is reasonable in the tions isn't a problem because "not only are proven right. circumstances," which in turn depends on observational studies justifiable under cer­ what would be expected from persons stand­ A much better model is the civil stan­ tain conditions, they may even have several ing "in the shoes of the claimant." dard of "preponderance of the evidence." If advantages over randomized controlled tri­ In this way Fisher seeks to cram the the vast majority of UFO sightings are als, including lower cost, greater timeliness, erroneous, the preponderance of the evi­ and a broader range of patients." "Reasonable Person" (RP) standard into a con­ text in which it was never intended to operate. dence suggests that the remaining unex­ plained cases arc, too. Even more useful is Schwartz is the recipient of a grant from Originally formulated by the courts as an the doctrine of "control of the facts." The the NIH's National Center for Comple­ objective standard, the RP becomes subjective: burden of proof is frequently on the side mentary and Alternative Medicine for his it is to be defined in relation to the specific that was best in a position to record the "Center for Frontier Medicine in Biofield "education, experience, and capacity" of the facts. That's why taxpayers are required to Science." According to the NCCAM Web person making the paranormal claim. Next he site, "This Center facilitates and integrates keep financial records. Similarly, both the changes the RP concept from a standard for orthodox scientist and the believer in research on the effects of low energy fields. assessing a defendant's past conduct into a The research is focused on developing stan- UFOs have the responsibility for collecting yardstick for measuring the credibility (or fal­ dardized bioassays (cellular biology) and psy­ convincing data and ensuring that it meets libility or gullibility) of a witness—something chophysiological and biophysical markers of stringent standards. the law does not do. biofield effects, and on the application of the In the ongoing debate about the Mars This leads to Fisher's extraordinary sug­ markers developed to measure outcomes in Effect (the Ertel-Dcan exchange), there is gestion that a claim by an air traffic con­ the recovery of surgical patients. one possible explanation I have never seen troller to have seen a UFO is to be assessed discussed. If you scan a large body of data for As unlikely as it may seem, some influen­ according to whether "a reasonable air traffic tial academic physicians take such ideas seri­ apparent correlations, you will probably find controller, with similar background and a few. If you focus solely on the apparent cor­ ously. Ralph Snyderman is the Chancellor experience to the claimant" would have been for Health Affairs at Duke University and relation and ignore all the other possible led to the same inescapable conclusion. I'm President and CEO of Duke University combinations and permutations, the correla­ sorry, but the answer to that question proves Health System. He has "fostered discussion tion will stand up to every imaginable statis­ nothing to me about the existence of UFOs. of Integrative Medicine at meetings of the tical test. No amount of post-hoc statistical Would Fisher be satisfied with an alien Association of Academic Medical Colleges," analysis will make a run of ten consecutive of which he is the chairman. In a recent arti­ abduction story told by a country bumpkin, heads in coin flipping go away, but if we find cle for Academic Medicine, Snyderman and provided it's good enough to persuade a jury out the ten heads arc a selected part of a former Schwartz and Weil co-author Tracy of "reasonable" country bumpkins? series of a thousand flips, the run becomes a Gaudet praised Weil's "Arizona Program" Fisher disdains the evidence of experts, lot less remarkable. If the Mars Effect is and called for incorporating "integrative because not all experts are skeptics, and some nothing more than statistical clustering, no amount of post-hoc statistical testing of the medicine" into the standard medical school arc "out-and-out flakes." We don't need original data set will discredit it. To test curriculum. Elsewhere they have written, experts, says he; all we need is the Reasonable whether the Mars Effect is real, we need to "We believe that what we now call integra­ Person. This populist, anti-intellectual view­ look in a broader context. Are there equally tive medicine will one day be such an inte­ point may be in keeping with the current gral part of medical education, training, and strong analogous correlations between other Zeitgeist, but I still like to think there's room planets and other traits? No. Does the effect practice that it becomes the new paradigm for scientific evidence to be brought to bear for good conventional medicine." persist when examined over a longer time on claims of the paranormal. span than the original data? No. The pre­ Fisher doesn't like the idea of requiring ponderance of the evidence is that the effect Kimball C. Atwood IV, M.D. extraordinary proof of extraordinary claims, is statistical clustering, nothing more. Waben, Massachusetts unless it's "reasonable in the circumstances" to require it. Reasonable people can differ (See also the Follow-Up section in this issue, pp. Steven I. Dutch over what's reasonable, so where does that 58-64 —EDITOR) Professor. Natural and Applied leave us? The standard, he says, depends on Sciences what would be expected from any other per­ University of Wisconsin-Green Bay son with similar qualifications and experi­ 'Reasonable Person' Green Bay, Wisconsin Standard? ence to the claimant. Again, a subjective test for proving objective facts. If Richard M. Fisher's purpose ("Beliefs on When a skeptic undertakes, as does Richard Trial and the Legality of Reasonableness," Jeff White M. Fisher, to pontificate on the need to January/February 2003) was to justify die Toronto, Ontario apply proper scientific and statistical

66 May/June 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER and hysterias of the past millennium. Bartholomew and Goode I Doomsday fears at RHIC, Guiterrez I Save FILL IN THE GAPS IN YOUR our science: The struggle for rationality at a French university, flroch / Paraneuroscience?, Kirkland I Bohm's guided wave theory. Gardner. MARCH/APRIL 2000 (vol. 24, no. 2). Risky business: Skeptical Inquirer COLLECTION Vividness, availability, and the media paradox. Rusciol Physics and the paranormal, 't Hoof* ' Efficacy of • 15% discount on orders of $100 or more • prayer. Tessman and Tessman I Can we tell if someone • $6.25 a copy. Vols. 1-18 ($5.00 Vols. 19-25). To order, use reply card insert • is staring at us?. Baker I Assessing the quality of med­ ical Web sites. Levi I The demon-haunted sentence. Byrne and Normand I Mad messiahs, Gardner. MARCH/APRii. 2003 (vol. 27, no. 2); The Blank Slate, Science, religion, and the Galileo affair, Moy I The JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2000 (vol. 24. no. 1): Special Pinker I Omission neglect: The importance of missing god of falling bodies, Stenger / The relationship Report The ten outstanding skeptics of the twentieth information. Kardes and Sanbonmatsu I Acupuncture. between paranormal beliefs and religious beliefs. century / Two paranormalisms or two and a half?. Goode magic, and make-believe. Ulett/Walt Whitman. Sloan Sparks I Science and religion in an impersonal uni­ I Anna Eva Fay, Polidoro I The pseudoscience of oxygen I The James Ossuary. Nickell. verse, Young / Arthur C. Clarke's therapy. Allen I Confessions of a (former) graphologist JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2003 (vol. 27. no 'Credo.' Clarke I A designer universe?. Tripidan I The Second Coming of Jesus. Gardner 1): How not to test mediums, Hyman I Weinberg I An evolutionary-genetic NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 1999 (vol 23. no. 6): The Beliefs on trial, and the legality of rea- wager. Avise I Shroud of Turin scandals. Universe and Carl Sagan, Davidson I The millennium ;o"t!cr.cc:. Fisher f P1?cebo5 rw«hn< Nickell I Multiverses and blackberries. thought contagion. Lynchl Uebunxing tne aebuiineis and chiropractic adjustments. Homola I Gardner. A response to astrology. Kelly I The physics behind Pliny the Elder: Credulist skeptic, or JULY/AUGUST 2001 (vol 25. no. 4): four amazing demonstrations. Willey I Another lunar both?, Parejko / Unfazed: Mark Twain Confronting veterinary medical non­ effect put to rest. Sweet I Special Report: Blooming debunks the mesmerizer. Englebretsen sense. Imrie I Junk science and the law. shroud claims. Nickell I The star of Bethlehem. I Amityville Horror, Nickell. Dodes I Chevreul's report on the myste­ Gardner. NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2002 (vol. 26, rious oscillations of the hand-held pen­ no. 6): Politicizing the Virgin Mary, fve dulum, Spitz and Marcuard I CSICOP SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 1999 (vol. 23. no. 5): Special / Hypothesis testing and the nature of 25th Anniversary section: A quarter-cen­ Report. Flashl Fox news reports aliens may have built skeptical investigations, Pigliucci I tury of skeptical inquiry, Paul Kurtz I the pyramids. Carrier I Where do we come from?, Intelligent design: Dembski's presenta­ Thoughts on science and skepticism in Pigliucci I Profits and prophecy. Wise / Projective mea­ tion without arguments, Perakh I Hugo the twenty-first century. Kendrkk sures of personality and psychopathology: How well Gernsback. skeptical crusader. Miller I Frazier I Proper criticism, Ray Hyman I do they work?, Lilienfeldl What every skeptic ought Alternative medicine and pseudoscienci , Mornstein I The lighter side of skepticism. Pudim IA skeptical look to know about subliminal persuasion, Epley. Savitsky, at Karl Popper. Gardner. Are skeptics cynical?. Mole I Psychic pet: and pet psy- and Kachelski I Carlos Castaneda and New Age chics. Nkkell. MAY/JUNE 2001 (vol. 25. no. 3): The shrinking file- anthropology. Gardner. SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2002 (vol. 26. no. 5): Special dnWK Stoke;: ine Pokcrnon Panic of 1997. Radford JULY/AUGUST 1999 (vol. 23. no. 4): Special teuc: Report: Circular Reasoning: The •mystery' of crop cir­ I The Antinous Prophecies. Pickover I Common myths Science and Religion, Conflict or Conciliation? cles and their orbs- of light. Nkkell, Fourth World of children's behavior. Fiorello I Bertrand Russell and Celebrating creation. Raymo I Should skeptical Skeptics Conference Report / A skeptical look at critical receptiveness. Hare I CSICOP 25th Anniversary inquiry be applied to religion?. Kurtz I The 'Science September 11th. Chapman and Harris I Sheldrake's section: From the editor's seat: 25 years of science and and Religion' movement. Scott / Science and the ver­ Crystals, van Genderen, Koene and Nienhuys I skepticism, Kendrkk Frazier I Science vs. pseudo- sus of religion, Palevitz I Science vs. religion. Teaching skepticism via the CRITIC acronym. Bam I science, nonscience. and nonsense, James Alcock I CSI­ Pazameta I Anthropic design, Stenger I Scientific Skepticism under the big sky. Schwinden, Engbrecht, COP timeline / Primal scream: A persistent New Age skepticism, CSICOP. and the local groups. Novella and Mercer and Patterson I Why was The X-Files so appeal­ therapy. Gardner. Bloomberg I Two mind-sets, Allen I God is dead, after ing?. Goode / Winchester mystery house. Nickell. MARCH/APRIL 2001 (vol. 25. no. 2): Darwin in mind. the weather and sports. Reiss I Whence religious JULY/AUGUST 2002 (vol. 26, no. 4): Special Report: Edit I A bit confused. Roche I What can the paranor­ belief?. Pinker I Non-overlapping magisteria. Gould I Alternative medicine and the White House commis­ mal teach us about consciousness?. Blackmore I You can't have it both ways: Irreconcilable differ­ sion. Gorski. London I Special Section: Science and Spontaneous human confabulation. Nienhuys I Italy's ences?. Dawkins I The concerns of science. Mayr I The pseudoscience in Russia, Kurtz, Efremov, Kruglyakov I version of Harry Houdini. Nisbet IA psychological case religious views of Stephen Gould and Charles Darwin. Who abused Jane Doe? Part 2. Loftus and Guyer I The of 'demon' and 'alien' visitation. Reisner I Distant Gardner. high cost of skepticism, Tavris I Graham Hancock's healing and Elizabeth Targ. Gardner. MAY/JUNE 1999 (vol. 23. no. 3): Special Section: Urban shifting cataclysm. Brass / The Mad Gasser of Mattoon. JANUARY/FE8RUARY 2001 (vol. 25, no. 1): Special legends. The snuff film. Sri'ne / Bitter harvest: The Ladendori and Bartholomew I Moscow mysteries. Section: Issues in Alternative Medicine: Medicine organ-snatching urban legends. Radford I Bigfoot's Nkkell. wars. Seidman I Herbal medicines and dietary sup­ screen test Daegling and Schmitt I Tracking Bigfoot on the Internet Zuefle I Statement analysis. Shearer I MAY/JUNE 2002 (vol. 26. no. 3): Who abused Jane plements. Allen I Psychoactive herbal medications. NAGPRA. science, and the demon-haunted world, Doe? Part 1. loftus and Guyer / Is the Mars Effect a Spinella I Chiropractic, Homola I Damaged goods? Clark I Urine therapy. Gardner. social effect?. Dean I Gray Barker's book of bunk. Science and child sexual abuse. Hagen I Special MARCH/APRIL 1999 (vol. 23. no. 2): Special Report: Sherwood / The king of quacks: Albert Abrams. M.D.. Report: Science indicators 2000 / Facilitated commu­ The ten-percent myth, Radford I Haines I Benny Hinn: Healer or hypnotist?. Nkkell. nication, Gardner. Superstition and the regression effect. NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2000 (vol. 24. MARCH/APRIL 2002 (vol. 26. no. 2): Special Reports: Kruger, Savitsky, and Gilovich I no. 6): The face behind the Face on Bioterrorism and alternative medicine, Atwood I Psychology of the seance. Mars. Posner I The new paranatural par­ Wiseman I •Mothman' solved! Nickell I Bigfoot at fifty. Radford I Dowsing and archaeology, adigm. Kurtz I Francis Bacon and the i Leusen I Cripplefoot hobbled. Daegling I Pseudohistory in Hidden messages in DNA?. true ends of skepticism. Friedberg I Larhammar ancient coins. Carrier I Are science and religion com­ and Chatzidimitriou I The Worlds in collision: Where reality meets real Chief patible?. Kurtz I Ihe emptiness of hoiism. Ruxfo I Seattle was not a spintuj the paranormal. Radford I Why bad ecologist Undercover among the spirits. Nkkell. Abruzzi / Joint pain and weathe beliefs dont die, [ester / Supernatural . Qukk I Acupressure, zone therapy, and r JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2002 (vol. 26. no. 1): Myths of power and cultural evolution. Layng I eflexol- ogy. Gardner murder and multiple regression. Goertzel I Education, The brutality of Dr. Bettelheim. Gardner. scientific knowledge, and belief in the paranormal. Goode I A university's struggle with chiropractic, SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2000 (vol. 24, no. JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1999 (vol. 23. no. DeRobertis I Snaring the Fowler Mark Twain debunks 5): Voodoo science and the belief gene. 1): Special Report: Armageddon and the phrenology. Lopez I Three skeptics' debate tools Park I Rogerian Nursing Theory. Raskin I prophets of doomsday. Fears of the examined. Caso / Mickey Mouse discovers the 'real' Sun sign columns, Dean and Mather I apocalypse, Kurtz I The 8ible and the Atlantis. Hardersen I Atlantis behind the myth. The psychic staring effect. Marks and prophets of doom, Larue I Science and Christopher 110th European Skeptics Congress report Cohvell I Management of positive and pseudoscience in Russia. Kapitza I Mahner I Voodoo in New Orleans. Nkkell I Some negative responses in a spiritualist medium consulta­ Testing dowsing: The failure of the Munich experi­ thoughts on induction, Gardner. tion. Greasley I The laws of nature: A skeptic's guide. ments. Enright IA fallibilist among the cynics. Haack I Pazameta I Special Report On ear cones and candles. The internet: A world brain?. Gardner. NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2001 (vol. 25, no. 6): A cri­ Kaushall and Kaushall I little Red Riding Hood. NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 1998 (vol. 22. no. 6): Gaps in tique of Schwartz et al.'s after-death communication Gardner studies. Wiseman and O'Keeffe I Magical thinking in the fossil record: A case study. Thomas / The Martian complementary and alternative medicine. Stevens / JULY/AUGUST 2000 (vol. 24. no. 4): Thought Field Panic sixty years later Bartholomew I The perils of Educational malpractice. Moore I Philosophers and Therapy: Can we really tap our problems away?. post-hockery. Suscio / May the force be with you. psychics: The Vandy episode. Oldfteld I CSICOP 25th Gaudiano and Herbert I Absolute skepticism equals Krauss I The Mead-Freeman controversy: A fresh look: Anniversary section: The origins and evolution of CSI­ dogmatism, Bunge I Did a close encounter of the third Much ado about nothing The 'Fateful Hoaxing' of COP. Nisbet I Never a dull moment. Kan I John kind occur on a Japanese beach in 1803?. Tanaka I Margaret Mead. Core / Margaret Mead. Derek Edward: Hustling the bereaved. Nickell I Ernest Rethinking the dancing mama. Bartholomew I Has sci­ Freeman, and the issue of evolution. Shankman I Hemingway and Jane. Gardner. ence education become an enemy of scientific ratio­ Second World Skeptics Congress: Science and reason. nality?. Ede I Krakatene: Explosive pseudoscience from foibles and fallacies, and doomsdays / Science and the SEPIEMBER/OCIOBER 2001 (vol 25. no. 5): Special the Czech Academy of science. Slanina I David Bohm unknowable. Gardner. Issue: Science and Religion 2001. Holy wars. Tyson I and Krishnamurti. Gardner. The dangerous quest for cooperation between sci­ ence and religion. Pandian / Design yes. intelligent MAY/JUNE 2000 (vol. 24, no. 3): Special Report- The For • complete listing of our back issues, call 800-634- no. Pigliucci IA way of life for agnostics?. Lovelock I new bogus MJ-12 documents. Klass I Mass delusions 1610. or see rittpJh«ww.csicop.org/si/badi-issues.html. LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

methodology, a useful first step for the skep­ of something that was going to happen. the possession of miraculous powers by vari­ tic is to acquaint himself with the basic prin­ It I had fixed the World Series, for exam­ ous "gurus" gives one good cause to seriously ciples of science and statistics. In the article, ple, and then telephoned a crony on the question the integrity and honesty of these Fisher makes the following statements: "For opposite coast to tell him about it, that "spiritual leaders," and, by extension, to look publishing in most scientific journals, the would not imply that the call caused the fix. askance at the fundamental precepts of their minimum standard is P<.05. In other words, tradition. in order to convince me, and others, that the John Orr results are valid, you must first be able to Fullerton, California John A. Finch show, by statistical analysis, that if you Madison, Wisconsin repeated the experiment 100 times, you would be expected to get the same result 95 Askance at Yogic 'Miracles' times out of 100," Letters on 9/11 Concerns What Fisher seems not to realize is that I greatly enjoyed Massimo Polidoro's "Don't the ".05" in the phrase ".05 level of statisti­ Try This At Home" (January/February A more rational, objective alternative to the cal significance" refers to the probability of 2003). To his suggestions for further reading, events of September 11, 2001, (Letters, what is called a Type I error (obtaining a sig­ I would like to add Arthur Koestler's delight­ January/February 2003) could unwittingly nificant result if the null hypothesis is true). ful travelogue and critique of both India and provide a framework for minimizing the Japan, The Lotus and The Robot (Hutchinson Thus, a correct version of Fisher's statement human significance of an act of profound 1960), which includes a description of vari­ would be something like: "If only chance is moral evil. A rational analysis that objecti­ operating, and you repeated the experiment ous bizarre and, in Koestler's opinion, often fies the personal and symbolic meanings of 100 times, you would fail to get a significant "degrading" Yogic practices. Koestler con­ this act of terrorism can easily "spill over" effect 95 times out of a 100." cludes that yogis can achieve high levels of conscious control over various neuro­ into a rationalization that minimizes the Fisher has instead erroneously assumed endocrine functions which are normally meaning of this evil act and more impor­ that the .05 refers to what is called a Type II autonomic, and can, for example, raise boils, tant, leads to a neglect of prophylactic error (failing to get a significant result when stigmata, etc. through meditative exercises. action and healing. the null hypothesis is false). The probabilities A purely logical analysis of the terrorist of making a Type I and Type II error are not In no case, however, could he find evi­ in general the same. For instance, suppose dence of a genuine miracle, one in which a attacks is characterized by both strengths that a weight-loss program really does pro­ law of physics as we know it was clearly vio­ and weaknesses. Strengths include an ana­ duce a loss in the average weight of its par­ lated by a Yogic feat. Koestler chose levita- lytical, objective examination and an emo­ ticipants. If the effectiveness of the program tion as an example; no yogi has ever been tional distancing from the event. Weak­ is tested using a .05 level of significance, the reported to be able to alter his own weight by nesses include the objectification of an probability of a Type II error (getting a non­ even a small amount, when measured under event that should be, at least in part, expe­ significant result) is likely to be much greater controlled conditions. rienced within an emotionally empathic if the program produces an average weight Koestler and others have noted that, framework of shared meanings. loss of three ounces than if it produces an when Vedic philosophy is exported to the The "disproportionate" response is not average loss of twenty-five pounds. West, either as New Age stuff (and non­ ai all disproportionate when viewed in psy­ Fishers error would be sufficient to earn sense) or in the older writings of Aldous chological terms. The meaning of this event him a B- in Statistics 101 (any lower grade Huxley, Christopher Isherwood, etc., the should be recognized in terms of implica­ role of the miraculous is usually down­ being of course precluded by contemporary tions for such core American identity ele­ played. In India, however, the story was grade inflation and the ever-present possibil­ ments and values (arguably somewhat illu­ ity of litigation). very different in 1960, when Koestler wrote, and probably remains so today in sory) as security and safety. The core identi­ Douglas M. Stokes many areas of the country. ties of many Americans were threatened— exposing millions to vivid awareness of the Ann Arbor, Michigan A typical New Age/spiritualist response fragility and contingency of human life. to a skeptic's demand for proof is that yes, Yogic miracles are possible, but only at great The symbolic meaning of this event cannot Causes and Precognitions risk to the practitioner, and that miracles are be experienced within the context of a in any case not for public consumption. purely rational analysis, but must be exam­ Massimo Pigliucci's new column is a won­ Nonsense! Jesus' "miracles" were allegedly ined from multiple perspectives, including derful idea, and he chose an excellent topic performed for the multitudes, not just for subjective, emotional, symbolic, and collec­ for his first entry (January/February 2003). "initiates," and included wine, transformed tive meanings. Unfortunately, in conveying the essence of from water, enjoyed by unbelievers. If "advanced" yogis can in fact perform mira­ Jerome J. Tobacyk the post hoc fallacy, he used a terrible exam­ cles, there is no necessary "karmic law" that Psychology Department ple which severely undermines the impact of would prevent them from doing so under Louisiana Tech University his article. laboratory conditions. One very strongly Ruston, Louisiana When people claim to have had precog- suspects that yogis do not give such demon­ nitive dreams, they do not, as Pigliucci says, strations because they are in fact unable, imply "some causal connection between the rather than merely unwilling, to do so. If so, The central point to be made about the dream and the phone call." They merely the tacit encouragement of public belief in response to 9/11 is not whether it was dispro­ believe that they have had advance warning portionate but rather whether any effective

68 May/June 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

response can be made, other than the exercise saying, "Weii, he no longer works for the Despite having been extinct for these last of belter than usual care (i.e., "vigilance"). company, and he's not independently diree years, I nevertheless look forward to Although it wasn't the central point of wealthy. So perhaps let that be the final les­ Richard Fishers review of the newest and their letters, respondents Thomas Freeman son, that maybe in a bull market lots of most elegant edition of this Vice-Presidential and Charles Chandler touched on it. things will work that might otherwise not." masterpiece. Perhaps he will commend it to Chandler wrote, "The next big terrorist Second, on die last day of class, we briefly The Danish Committees on Scientific attack will probably have nothing to do with reviewed some of the philosophical topics Dishonesty. air transport," and Freeman added, "My related to artificial intelligence. In the clos­ Russell Seitz engineer friends and I spent time at lunch ing remarks for die course, he asked the stu­ Nantucket, Massachusetts dreaming up terrorist scenarios." To sec how dents to "be skeptical of claims about artifi­ easy it is 10 COOK up with horrific acts cial ji^Kgfprr. Dor.': !c: some snake oi! against which virtually no defense is possible, salesman convince you of some machine especially when the perpetrator is willing to learning technology because 'it's got genetic ID and NEA commit suicide in the process, imagine sev­ algorithms' or 'it's based on nature.'" eral terrorists, say, hijacking several gasoline This note relates to the concept of Intelligent In summary. Professor Shavlik was not tank trucks one day and driving them into, Design creationism, and specifically to the only an excellent professor who taught CS say, several banks around the country. This "Unintelligent Design" Forum article in the 540 very well, but also a proponent of skep­ would require little in the way of planning November/December 2002 issue of SI. tical thinking in the field. For this, I feel he and almost nothing in the way of equip­ I am a career public school teacher, and deserves an honorable mention as one of the ment. I will probably be accused of encour­ I'm saddened to learn that the National best professors I've encountered in my aging terrorism for giving this example, but Educational Association (NEA) of which I'm undergraduate career. Professor Shavlik's surely it is clear this isn't rocket science. a member apparently is going to provide a home page is www.cs.wisc.edu/-shavlik/. How many mailboxes did just one mixed-up forum for ID proponents. This note appears teenager blow up before he was caught? Patrick Meade in the January 2003 issue of NEA Today, dis­ tributed to all members: So Chapman and Harris's comparison Madison, Wisconsin wiih other, risks is die only comparison that "Should Schools Teach 'Intelligent matters. Reinforcing cockpit doors is a good Design? If you'd like to take part in this (and overdue before 9/11) idea. Catching The Report of Our future debate, send a brief note to Alain bin Laden would be a great (and overdue Extinction May Be Jehlen, [email protected]." before 9/11) event. This is a yes/no "Debate" page, a regular Exaggerated feature of the educational journal. But 1 don't think we now need a Federal Bank Petroleum Truck Approach Radar and Richard M. Fisher, reviewing The Skeptical Brant Abrahamson Barricade Network or a National Teenage Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of Brookfield, Illinois Mailbox Antipathy Screening Network. the World by Bjorn Lomborg (November/ Jonathan R. Smith December 2002) takes its author to task for Brunswick, Georgia resurrecting a statistical straw man: "he quotes from the work of a scientist who stated in 1979 that we could be losing some­ The letters column is a forum thing in the order of 40,000 species a year to Kudos for a Professor for views on matters raised in human-driven extinction. To increase the caricature, Lomborg reprints the 40,000 previous issues. Letters Yesterday, I finished my last day of class for species number on an X-Y graph so that the should be no more than 225 Computer Science 540: Introduction to 40,000 figure spikes up like a sore thumb words. Due to the volume of Artificial Intelligence. The course was taught from a near-zero baseline from the years letters not all can be pub­ by Professor Jude Shavlik at the University of 1600-2000. Lomborg states that this 'is a lished. Address letters to Wisconsin-Madison. I believe he deserves an figure which with monotonous regularity Letters to the Editor, SKEPTICAL honorable mention in SKEPTICAL INQUIRER has been repeated everywhere until in the INQUIRER. Send by mail to 944 for two instances I observed during the end wc all believed it." The problem is, it course of the semester hasn't, and we don't." Deer Dr. NE, Albuquerque, NM 87122; by fax to 505-828- First, the class watched an ABC Nightline This will come as a surprise to the mil­ 2080; or by e-mail to let- episode titled, "Machines Like Us." The final lions who have seen just such a graph in a part wc watched talked about an investment book that is very much still in print. It is not [email protected] (include business using genetic algorithms to create a product of the 1970s, but Al Gore's best name and address). artificial stock pickers. Nightlintefocused on seller The Earth In the Balance. Its depiction the successes of the featured busmen ot the exponential rate of species loss is liter­ Professor Shavlik informed us that a former ally impossible to exaggerate, since its curve graduate of UW-Madison had worked for goes vertical, and hence its rate of extinction the company, and ended that day of class by infinite, upon reaching the year 2000.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER M«y/Juns 2003 69 THE COMMITTEE FOR THE SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLAIMS OF THE PARANORMAL AT THE CENTER FOR INQUIRY-INTERNATIONAL (ADJACENT TO THE STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK AT BUFFALO) AN INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION Network of Affiliated Organizations International AUSTRALIA. Canberra Skeptics. Canberra nology. China. Shen Zhenyu Research Center, the Investigation of the Anomalous Australia. Peter Barrett President. PO Box 555, P.O. Box 8113. Beijing China. Hong Kong Phenomena (KCIAP) Kazakhstan. Dr. Sergey Civic Square ACT 2608 Australia. Australian Skeptics, Hong Kong. Brad Collins, P.O. Box Efimov, Scientific Secretary. E-mail: efim© Skeptics Inc., Australia. Barry Williams. 1010, Shatin Central Post Office, Shatin NT China. afi.south-capital.kz. Astrophysical Institute Executive Officer. Tel. 61-2-9417-2071; e-mail: COSTA RICA. Iniciativa para la Promocion del Kamenskoye Plato Alma-Ata, 480020 Republic [email protected]. PO Box 268, Roseville Pensamiento Critico (IPPEC) San Jose. Victor of Kazakhstan. Committee for the Scien­ NSW 2069 Australia, www.skeptics.com.au. Quiros V. Tel.: 506 275 43 52; e-mail: victorcr tific Expertise of Claims of the Paranormal Australian Skeptics—Hunter Region ©racsa.co.cr. A.P. 1513-1002 Paseo de los (CSECOP). Newcastle/Hunter Valley. Dr. Colin Keay. Estudiantes San Jose, Costa Rica. http7/webs. KOREA. Korea PseudoScience Awareness President. Tel.: 61-2-49689666; e-mail: demasiado.com/vicr. (KOPSA) Korea. Dr. Gun-ll Kang, Director. Tel.: bolide©hunterlink.net au. PO Box 166. Waratah CZECHOSLOVAKIA. Sisyfos-Czech Skeptics 82-2-393-2734; e-mail: KOPSAechollian.net. NSW 2298 Australia Darwin Skeptics. Club. Czech Republic. Ms. Ing. Olga Kracikova. 187-11 Bukahyun-dong, Sudaemun-ku, Seoul Northern Territory. Australia. Simon Potter, Secretary. Tel.: 420-2-24826691; e-mail: 120-190 Korea www.kopsa.or.kr. Secretary. Tel.: 61-8-8932-7552; e-mail: dwnskep- olgakracikova©email.cz. Hastalska 27 Praha 1 MALTA. Society for Investigating the ticeais.net.au. PO Box 809, Sanderson NT 0812 110 00 Czech Republic, www.fi.muni.cz/sisyfos/ Credibility of Extraordinary Claims (SICEC) Australia. Gold Coast Skeptics. Queensland, (in Czech). Malta. Vanni Pule, Chairman. Tel.: 356-381994; Australia. Lilian Derrick, Secretary. Tel.: 61-7- DENMARK. Skeptica: Association of e-mail: pulevanevol.net.mt. P.O. Box 31, 5593-1882; e-mail: Imderricketelstra.easymail. Independent Danish Skeptics, Denmark. Hamrun, Malta. com.au. PO Box 8348. GCMC Bundall OLD 4217 Willy Wegner. Tel.: 45-75-64-84-02; e-mail: MEXICO. Mexican Association for Skeptical Re­ Australia. Queensland Skeptics Assoc Inc. skepticaeskeptica.dk. Vibevej 7 A DK 8700 search (SOMIE) Mexico. Mario Mendez-Acosta, (Qskeptics) Queensland. Bob Bruce, President. Horsens. Denmark, www.skeptica.dk. Apartado Postal 19-546 D.F. 03900 Mexico. Tel.: 61-7-3255-0499; e-mail: [email protected]. ECUADOR. Pablo Cevallos Estarellas. Apartado 09- NETHERLANDS. Stichting Skepsis, Netherlands. PO Box 6454, Fai-view Gardens QLD 4103 01-5603 Guayaquil, Ecuador. Rob Nanninga, Secretary. Tel.: 31-50-3129893; Australia. South Australia Skeptics (SAS) ESTONIA Horisont. Indrek Rohtmets. EE 0102 e-mail: [email protected]. Westerkade 20. 9718 AS South Australia. Mr. Laurie Eddie. Secretary. Tel.: Tallinn. Narva mnt. S. Groningen, Netherlands, www.skepsis.nl. 61-8-8272-5881; e-mail: allang«txc.net.au. PO FINLAND. SKEPSIS. Finland. Jukka Hakkinen. PO NEW ZEALAND. New Zealand Skeptics. New Box 377, Rundle Mall SA 5000 Australia. Box 483. Helsinki 00101 Finland. Zealand. Vicki Hyde, Chair. Tel.: 64-3-384-5136; Australian Skeptics in Tasmania Inc., FRANCE. AFIS. AFIS (Association Franchise pour e-mail: Vicki©spis.co.nz. PO Box 29-492, Christ- Tasmania, Australia. Fred Thornett. Secretary. I'lnformation Scientifique) France. Jean church, New Zealand, www.skeptics.org.nz. Tel.: 61-3-6234-1458; e-mail: fredthornett@hot- Bricmont. President. 14 rue de I'Ecole NIGERIA. Nigerian Skeptics Society, Nigeria. Leo mail.com. PO Box 582, North Hobart. TAS 7000 Polytechnique F-75005 Paris. France. Cercle Igwe, Convenor. E-mail: dpcOskannet.com.ng. Australia. Australian Skeptics—Victorian Zetetique, France. Paul-Eric Blanrue. 12 rue; PO Box 25269, Mapo Ibadan Oyo State, Nigeria. Branch Victoria. Grant Stevenson, President. Tel.: David Deitz. F-57000 Metz. France. NORWAY. SKEPSIS. Norway St. Olavsgt. 27 N-0166 61-3-9531-9905: e-mail: contact©skeptics.com.au. Laboratoire de Zetetique (laboratory). Oslo, Norway. GPO Box 5166AA, Melbourne VIC 3001 Australia. Professeur Henri Broch. Tel.: 33-0492076312; e- PERU. Comite de Investigaciones de lo Para­ www.skeptics.com.au. WA Skeptics, Western mail: broch8unice.fr. Universite de Nice-Sophia normal lo Seudocientifico y lo Irracional Australia. Dr. John Happs, President. Tel.: 61-8- Antipolis Faculte des Sciences F-06108 Nice CIPSI-PERU, Lima. Peru. Manuel Abraham 9448-8458; e-mail: wa.skeptics@australiamail. Cedex 2 France, www.unice.fr/zetetique/. Paz-y-Mino. Tel.: +51-1-99215741; e-mail: cip- com. PO Box 899, Morley. WA 6062 Australia. GERMANY. Gesellschaft zur wissenschaft siperu©yahoo.com. El Corregidor 318 Rlmac, BELGIUM. Comite Beige Pour ^Investigation lichen Unterrsuchung von Parawissen- Lima 25 Peru, www.geocities.com/cipsiperu. Scientifique des Phenomenes Reputes schaften (GWUP) Germany. Amardeo Sarma, POLAND. Polish Skeptics, Poland. Adam Pananormaux Comite Para. Belgium. J. Chairman. Tel.: 49-6154-695023. E-mail: Pietrasiewicz. E-mail: [email protected] Dommanget. President of the Committee. E- info©gwup.org. Arheilger Weg 11 D-64380 www.biuletynsceptyczny.z.pl. mail: omer.nyseoma.be. Observatoire Royal Rossdorf, Germany, www.gwup.org. European PORTUGAL. Associacao Cepticos de Portugal Belgique 3. ave. Circulaire B 1180. Brussels. Council of Skeptical Organizations (ECSO) (CEPO) Portugal. Ludwig Krippahl. E-mail: Belgium, www.comitepara.be. Studiekring Europe. Dr. Martin Manner Tel.: 49-6154- cepo©interacesso.pt. Apartado 334 2676-901 voor Kritische Evaluatie van Pseudoweten- 695023; e-mail: info©ecso.org. Arheilger Weg Odivelas, Portugal, http://cepo.interacesso.pt. schap en Paranormale beweringen (SKEPP) 11 64380 Rossdorf, Germany, www.ecso.org/. RUSSIA. Dr. Valerii A. Kuvakin. Tel.: 95-718-2178, Belgium. Prof. Dr. W. Betz. Tel.: 32-2-477-43-11; HUNGARY. Tenyeket Tisztelk Tarsasaga TTT e-mail: V.KUVAKINeMTU-NET.RU. Vorob'evy e-mail: skeppeskepp.be Laarbeeklaan. 103 Hungary. Prof. Gyula Bencze. Tel.: 36-1-392-2728; Gory, Moscow State University. Phil. Dept. B-1090 Brussels, Belgium, www.skepp.be. e-mail: gbenczeermki.kfki.hu. c/o Termesret Moscow 119899 Russia, http://1og.philos.msu. BRAZIL. OPCAO RACIONAL. Brazil Luis Fernando Viliga. PO Box 246 H-1444 Budapest 8 Hungary. ru/rhs/index/htm. Gutman. Tel.: 55-21-548-2476; e-mail: fernan- INDIA. Atheist Centre, Dr. Vijayam. Executive SINGAPORE. Singapore Skeptics. Contact: dogutmanehotmail.com. Rua Santa Clara, 431 Director. Benz Circle. Vijayawada 520 010, Ronald Ng. E-mail: ronaldngeiname.com. Bloco 5, Apt. 803. Copacabana-Rio de Janeiro Andhra Pradesh. India. Tel.: 91 866 472330; Fax: www.skeptic.iwarp.com. 22041-010 Brazil, www.opcaoracional.com.br. 91 866 473433. E-mail: atheistevsnl.com. SLOVAK REPUBLIC (SACT). Slovak Republic. Igor BULGARIA. Bulgarian Skeptics, Bulgaria Dr. Maharashtra Andhashraddha Nirmoolan Kapisinsky Pavla Horova, 10 Bratislava 841 07 Vladimir Daskalov. E-mail: egoshev©einet.bg. Samiti (MANS) states of Maharashtra & Goa. Dr. Slovak Republic. Krakra 22 BG 1504 Sofia. Bulgaria. Narendra Dabholkar. Executive President Tel.: SOUTH AFRICA. Marian Laserson. P.O. Box 46212. CANADA. Alberta Skeptics, Alberta. Greg Hart, 91-2162-32333; e-mail: ndabholkarOhotmail. Orange Grove 2119 South Africa. SOCRATES. Chairman. Tel.: 403-215-1440; e-mail: hang com. 1SS. Sadashiv Petri Satara 415001 India. South Africa. Cape Skeptics, Cape Town. Dr. ©humaneffort.com. PO Box 5571. Station www.antisuperstition.com. Indian Rationalist Leon Retief. Tel.: 27-21-9131434; e-mail: 'A", Calgary, Alberta T2H 1X9 Canada. Association, India. Sanal Edamaruku. E-mail: leonreiafrica.com. 5N Agapanthus Avenue. http://abskeptics.homestead.com. Alberta edamarukuevsnl.com or IRA©rationalist Welgedacht Bellville 7530 South Africa. Skeptics, British Columbia Skeptics, BC and international.net. 779. Pocket 5. Mayur Vihar 1, SPAIN. El Investigador Esceptico, Spain. Felix Alberta. Lee Moller. Tel. 604-929-6299; e-mail: New Delhi 110 091 India. Dravidar Kazhagam, Ares de Bias Gamez/Ares/Martinez. P.O. Box 904. leemoller©shaw.ca. 1188 Beaufort Road. N. southern India. K. Veeramani, Secretary General. Donostia-San Sebastian 20O8O Spain. ARP- Vancouver, BC V7G 1R7 Canada. Ontario Tel.: 9144-5386555; e-mail: periyarevsnl.com. Sociedad para el Avance del Pensamiento Skeptics, Ontario. Canada. Eric McMillan, Periyar Thidal, 50, E.F.K. Sampath Road Vepery, Critico ARP-SAPC Spain. Sergio Ldpez. Chair. Tel.: 416-425-2451; e-mail: eric©we-com- Chennai Tamil Nadu 600 007 India. Borgonoz. Tel: 34-933-010220; e-mail: arpBarp- pute.com. P.O. Box 53003. 10 Royal Orchard www.Periyar.org. Indian CSICOP. India, B. sapc.org. Apartado de Correos, 310 Blvd.. Thornhill. ON L3T 7R9 Canada. Premanand. Convenor. Tel.: 091-0422-872423; e- E-08860 Castelldefels. Spain, www.arp-sapc.org. www.astro.yorku.ca/-mmdr/oskeptics.html. mail: dayamini©md4.vsnl.net.in. 11/7 Chettipa- SWEDEN. Swedish Skeptics, Sweden. Dan Toronto Skeptical Inquirers fTSI) Toronto. layam Road Podanur Tamilnadu 641 023 India. Larhammar. professor chairperson. Tel.: 46-18- Henry Gordon, President. Tel.: 905-771-1615; e- ITALY. Comitate Italiano per il Controllo delle 4714173; e-mail: [email protected] Medical mail: henry_gordon@hotmail com 343 Clark Affermazioni sul Paranormale (CJCAP) Italy. Pharmacology BMC Box 593. Uppsala 751 24 Ave.. W.. Suite 1009. Thornhill. ON L4J 7K5 Massimo Pohdoro. Executive Director. Tel.: 39- Sweden, www.physto.se/-vetfolk/index.html. Canada. Ottawa Skeptics. Ottawa. Ontario. 049-686870; e-mail: polidoro©cicap.org. P.O. TAIWAN. Taiwan Skeptics, Taiwan. Tim Holmes. Greg Singer. E-mail: skeptic©ottawa.com. PO Box 1117 35100 Padova. Italy, www.cicap.org. PO Box 195. Tanzu, Taiwan Perspective. Box 1237, Station B, Ottawa. Ontario KIP 5R3 JAPAN. Japan Anti-Pseudoscience Activities Net­ UNITED KINGDOM. The Skeptk Magazine. United Canada, www.admissions.carletor.ca/-addalby/ work (JAPAN) Japan. Ryutarou Minakami, chair- Kingdom. Mike Hutchinson. E-mail: subsOskep- cats/skeptic.html Sceptiques du Quebec. person. E-mail: skepticSe-mail.ne.jp. c/o Ohta tk.org.uk. P.O. Box 475 Manchester M60 2TH Quebec. Alan Bonnier. Tel.: 514-990-8099. CP. Publishing Company. Epcot Bid. 1F. 22. Arakicho. United Kingdom. 202, Succ. Beaubien Montreal. Quebec H2G 3C9 Shinjuku-ku Tokyo 160-8571 Japan. Japan VENEZUELA. La Asociacion Racional y Esceptica de Canada, www.sceptiques.qc.ca. Skeptics Skeptics. Japan. Dr. Jun Jugaku. E-mail: Venezuela (A.R.E.V.), Guido David Nurtez Quinte, Bill Broderick. 2262 Shannon Rd. R.R. [email protected]. Japan Skeptics. Business Mujica. 10th Street 13th av. corner. Mini centra 1. Shannonville, ON KOK 3A0; e-mail: Center for Academic Societies, Japan 5-16-9 Honk- comercial Oasis. Valera, Trujillo state. broderic9kos.net. omagome. Bunkyo ku Tokyo 113 8622 Japan. Venezuela. Web site: www.geocities.com/escep CHINA. China Association for Science and Tech­ KAZAKHSTAN. Kazakhstan Commission for ticosvenezuela. ILLINOIS. Rational Examination Association of e-mail: ecarlsonOwfu edu. Physics Department, United States Lincoln Land (REALL) Illinois David Bloomberg. Wake Forest University, Winston-Salem. NC 27109 Chairman Tel 217-726-5354. e-mail chairman US. www.carolinaskeptics.org. ALABAMA. Alabama Skeptics. Alabama Emory ereall.org PO Box 20302, Springfield, IL 62708 US Kimbrough Tel 205 759-2624 3550 Watermelon www.reall.org OHIO. Central Ohioans for Rational Inquiry (CORD Road. Apt 28A. Northport. AL 35476 US Skeptics. Central Ohio. Charlie Hazlett. President Tel: 614- Freethouaht Forum of Alabama Skeptics KENTUCKV. Kentucky Assn. of Science Educators 878-2742; e-mail: charlieOhazlett.net PO Box Freethought Forum. Richard Rich. 1801 Beech Si SE. and Skeptics (KASES) Kentucky. Prof. Robert Decatur. AL 35601-3511 US E-mail: rrbama66«hot- Baker, 3495 Castleton Way, North Lexington. KY 282069. Columbus OH 43228 US South Shore mail com 40502 US Contact Fred Bach at e-mail fredw- Skeptics (SSS) Cleveland and counties. Jim Kutz. bachOyahoo com Tel 440 942-5543; e-mail: jimkutzeearthlink.net ARIZONA. Tucson Skeptics Inc. Tucson. AZ James McGaha. E-mail JMCGAHAePimaCC.Pima.EDU. 5100 LOUISIANA. Baton Rouge Proponents of Rational PO Box 5083. Cleveland, OH 44101 US. www.south N Sabino Foothills Di, Tucson. AZ 85715 US Inquiry and Scientific Methods (BR PRISM) shoreskeptics.org/. Louisiana Marge Schroth. Tel/ 225 766-4747 425 Phoenix Skeptics Phoenix. AZ Michael Siackpole, Association for Rational Thought (ART) PO Box 60333. Phoenix. AZ 85082 US Carriage Way. Baton Rouge, LA 70808 US MICHIGAN. Great Lakes Skeptics (GLS) SE Michigan Cincinnati Roy Auerbach, president. Tel: 513-731- CALIFORNIA. Sacramento Organization for 2774, e-mail: raaOcinci.rr.com. P0 Box 12896. Rational Thinking (SORT) Sacramento. CA. Ray Lorna J Simmons. Contact person Tel 734-525- Spangenburg. co-founder. Tel: 916-978-0321; e 5731; e-mail: Skeptic310aol com 31710 Cowan Cincinnati. OH 45212 US www.ancinnati skept mail, liitrayequiknet.com. PO Box 2215. Carmichael. Road. Apt 103, Westland. Ml 48185-2366 US Tri- ks.org. CA 95609-2215 US www.quiknet com/-kitray Cities Skeptics, Michigan Gary Barker. Tel.: 517- OREGON. Oregonians for Rationality (04R) Oregon /index 1 html Bay Area Skeptics (BAS) San 799-4502. e-mail barkergOsvol org 3596 Butternut Si. Saginaw. Ml 48604 US Dave Chapman. President Tel: 503 292-2146, e-mail Francisco—Bay Area Tully McCarroll. Chair Tel. 415 dchapmaneiccom.com 7555 Spring Valley Rd. NW. 927-1548; e-mail tulryannOpacbell net. PO Box 2443 MINNESOTA. St. Kloud Extraordinary Claim Salem, OR 9/304 US. www.o4r.org. Castro Valley. CA 945460443 US. www Psychic Teaching Investigating Community BASkeptics org Sacramento Skeptics Society (SKEPTIC) St Cloud. Minnesota Jerry Mertens Tel PENNSYLVANIA. Paranormal Investigating Cora- Sacramento, lerry sanobek. president 4suu Auourn mittee of Pittchlirgh iPlfP) Piftshlirnh PA Blvd. Suite 206. Sacramento CA 95841 Tel. 916 489 Richard Busch. Chairman. Tel.. 412-366-1000. e 1774 Email terryOsandbeck com San Diego edu. Jerry Mertens, Psychology Department, 720 Association for Rational Inquiry (SDARI) 4th Ave. 5. St Cloud State University, St. Cloud, MN mail. mindfulOtelerama.com. 8209 Thompson Run President Todd Rockhold Tel (Todd's personal 56301 US Rd., Pittsburgh. PA 15237 US Philadelphia phone) 760 943-8977 Web site: www MISSOURI. Gateway Skeptics. Missouri, Sieve Best. Association for Critical Thinking (PhACT), much sdan.org. E-mail infoOsdan org PO Box 623, La 6943 Amherst Ave , University City, MO 63130 US of Pennsylvania. Eric Krieg, President Tel.: 215-885 Jolla. CA 92038-0623. Kansas City Committee for Skeptical Inquiry. Missouri Verle Muhrer, United Labor Bldg, 6301 2089. e-mail: encOphact org. PO Box 1131. North Wales, PA 194S4 US. www.phact.org/phact. COLORADO. Rocky Mountain Skeptics (RMS) Colo.. Rockhill Road, Suite 412 Kansas City, MO 64131 US Wyo , Utah. Monl Bela Scheiber. President Tel : 303 NEBRASKA. REASON (Rationalists. Empiracists TENNESEE. Rationalists of East Tennessee. East 444-7537, e-mail: rmscentralOmindspring.com PO and Skeptics of Nebraska). Chris Peters, PO Box Tennessee Carl Ledenbecker. Tel: 865-982-8687, e- Box 7277, Boulder, CO 80306 US httpV/bcn boulder 24358, Omaha. NE 68134; e-mail: reasonOIOhot- mail: AletallOaol.com 2123 Stonybrook Rd., eo us/communrty/rms mail.com; Web page, www.reason.ws. Louisville, TN 37777 US CONNECTICUT. New England Skeptical Society NEVADA. Skeptics of Us Vegas. (SOLV) PO Box TEXAS. North Texas Skeptics NTS Dallas/Ft Worth (NESS) New England Steven Novella MD. 531323. Henderson. NV 89053 1323 E-mail: rban- area. John Blanton, Secretary Tel.. 972-306-3187; President Tel. 203-281-6277, e-mail board dersonOskepticslv org Web site www.skepticslv •theness.com 64 Cobblestone Dr., Hamden. CT org/ e-mail skepticOntskeptics.org. PO Box 111794. 06518 US. wwwtheness.com NEW MEXICO. New Mexicans for Science and Carrollton. TX 75011-1794 US. www.ntskeptics.org. DC /MARYLAND National Capital Area Skeptics Reason (NMSR) New Mexico David E Thomas. VIRGINIA. Science & Reason. Hampton Rds.. Virginia NCAS, Maryland, DC. Virginia D W "Chip" President lei 505-8b9-92S0; e-mail nmsrdave Lawrence Weinstein, Oid Dominion Univ.-Physics Denman Tel.: 301-587-3827 e-mail: ncasOncas.org eswcp.com PO Box 1017, Peralta, NM 87042 US Dept.. Norfolk, VA 23529 US PO 8ox 8428, Silver Spring, MD 20907-8428 US www nmsr.org WASHINGTON. Society for Sensible Explanations http7/www.ncas.org NEW YORK. New York Area Skeptics (NYASk) met­ Western Washington Tad Cook. Secretary E-mail: FLORIDA. Tampa Bay Skeptics (IBS) Tampa Bay. ropolitan NY area. Jeff Corey. President 18 k7wvOarrl net. PO Box 45792. Seattle. WA 98145 Florida Gary Posner. Executive Director Tel 813- Woodland Street. Huntington. NY 11743. Tel: (631) 584-0603, e-mail: tbskepOaol.com 5319 Archstone 427-7262 email: jcoreyeiiu.edu. Web site: 0792 US. httpy/seattleskeptics.org Advocates for Dr «102. Tampa FL 33634 US. httpV/members www.nvask.com Inquiring Skeptics of Upper Critical Thinking. Larry Henderson. Secretary. Tel.: aol.com/tbskep. New York (ISUNY) Upper New York Michael S»/Wb//B; e-mail: ACIinspokaneaincamail.com Sofka, 8 Providence St.. Albany. NY 12203 US 3901 S Brooks Rd. Medical Lake. WA 99022. GEORGIA. Georgia Skeptics (GS) Georgia Rebecca Central New York Skeptics (CNY Skeptics) Long, President Tel. 770-493-6857; e-mail arlong The organizations listed above have aims similar to ehcrc.org. 2277 Winding Woods Dr.. Tucker, GA Syracuse. Lisa Goodlin. President. Tel: 315 446- 30084 US 3068; e-mail, infoecnyskeptics.org. Web site: those of CSICOP but are independent and cnyskeptics.org 201 Milnor Ave. Syracuse. NY autonomous Representatives of these organizations IOWA. Central Iowa Skeptics (CIS) Central Iowa, Rob 13224 US Beeston. Tel.: 515-285-0622; e-mail: ciskepticsOhot cannot speak on behalf of the CSICOP Please send mail com S602 SW 2nd St Des Moines. IA 50315 NORTH CAROLINA. Carolina Skeptics North updates to Barry Karr, P.O. Box 703 Amherst NY US. www.skepticweb.com Carolina. Eric Carlson, President Tel.. 336-758-4994; 14226-0703 SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL CONSULTANTS George Agogino, Dept of Anthropology. Eastern New Donald Goldsmith, astronomer, president Interstellar Media Gary P. Posner, MD, Tampa. Fla. Mexico University Alan Hale, astronomer. Southwest Institute for Space Daisie Radner. professor of philosophy, SUNY, Buffalo Gary Bauslaugh. educational consultant Center for Research. Alamogordo, New Mexico Michael Radner, professor of philosophy, McMaster Curriculum, Transfer and Technology. Victoria, B C Canada Clyde F. Herreid. professor of biology. SUNY. Buffalo University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada Richard E. Berendzen, astronomer. Washington. D.C Terence M. Hines, professor of psychology, Pace University. Martin Bridgstodc, Senior Lecturer. School of Science. Pleasantville. N Y Robert H. Romer, professor of physics. Amherst College Griffith University. Brisbane, Australia Michael Hutchinson, author; SurencAi INOURER representa­ Karl Sabbagh, journalist. Richmond, Surrey, England Richard Busch magician/mentalist. Pittsburgh. Penn. tive, Europe Robert J. Samp, assistant professor of education and med- Shawn Carlson, Society for Amateur Scientists. East Philip A lama, assoc professor of astronomy Univ of Virginia icrne, University of Wisconsin-Madison Greenwich, Rl William Jarvis, professor of health promotion and public Steven D. Schafersman, asst. professor of geology. Miami Roger B. Culver, professor of astronomy, Colorado State Univ. health, Loma Linda University, School of Public Health Univ. Ohio Felix Ares de Bias, professor of computer science, I, W. Kelly, professor of psychology. University of Beta Scheiber,' systems analyst Boulder, Colo. University of Basque, San Sebastian. Spain Saskatchewan Michael R. Dennett writer, investigator, Federal Way, Richard H. Lange. MD. Mohawk Valley Physician Health Chris Scott statistician. London. England Washington Plan, Schenectady. NY. Stuart 0. Scott Jr.. associate orofessor of anthropology. Sid Deutsch consultant. Sarasota, Fla Gerald A Larue, professor of biblical history and archaeol­ SUNY. Buffalo J. Dommanget astronomer. Royale Observatory. 8russels. ogy, University of So California Erwin M. Segal professor of psychology. SUNY, Buffalo Belgium William M London, consumer advocate. Eon Lee. New Jersey Carta Selby. anthropologist /archaeologist Nahum J. Duker, assistant professor of pathology, Temple Rebecca Long, nuclear engineer, president of Georgia Steven N. Shore, professor and chair. Dept of Physics and University Council Against Health Fraud. Atlanta, Ga. Astronomy, Indiana Univ South Bend Barbara Eisenstadt psychologist educator, clinician, East Thomas R. McDonough. lecturer in engineering. Caltech. Greenbush, NY and SET! Coordinator of the Planetary Society Waclaw Szybalski, professor, McArdle Laboratory, William Evans, professor of communication. Center for James E. McGaha. Major. USAF. pilot University of Wisconsin-Madison Creative Media Joel A Moskowitz. director of medical psychiatry. Ernest H. Taves. psychoanalyst Cambridge. Mass John F. Fischer, forensic analyst Orlando, Fla Calabasas Mental Health Services. Los Angeles Sarah G. Thomason. professor of linguistics. University of Robert E. Funk, anthropologist New York State Museum & Jan Willem Nienhuys. mathematician. Univ of Eindhoven, Pittsburgh Science Service the Netherlands Tim Trachet journalist and science writer, honorary chair­ Eileen Gambnll, professor of social welfare. University of John W. Patterson, professor of materials science and engi­ man of SKEPP, Belgium. neering. Iowa State University California a! Berkeley David Willey, physics instructor. University of Pittsburgh Sylvio Garattini. director Mario Negri Pharmacology Massimo Pigliucci, professor of evolutionary biology. institute '/'lan. Italy University of Tennessee. Knoxville Laurie Godfrey, anthropologist University of Massachusetts James Porneramx Provost and professor of cognitive and • Member. CSICOP Executive Council Gerald Goidev nathematkaa Rutgers University. New Jersey linguistic sciences. Brown Unrv 'Associate Member. CSICOP Executive Council

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THE COMMITTEE FOR THE SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION H-' ^ OF CLAIMS OF THE PARANORMAL

Dumbbell Nebula An aging star's last hurrah is crealing a Hurry ol glowing knots ol gas that appear to he streaking through space in this close-up image ol the Dumbbell Nebula, taken with NASA's Hubble Space Telescope. The Dumbbell, a nearby planetary nebula residing more than 1.200 light-years away, is the result of an old star lliat has shed its outer layers in a unique display ol color.

Image Credit NASA .md DM Hubble H.-nj. lejm (SIScl/AURA) Acknowledgment C II O'Dell (Vandeibill University)

Skeptical Inquirer IHI MAC. A/IN I IOR SCHNCI AND REASON

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