1952 Washington UFO Sightings • Pets and Pet • The Skeptical Environmentalist THE MAGAZINE FOR SCIENCE AND REASON Volume 26,.No. 6 • November/December 2002

ppfjlffl-f]^;, rj-r ci-s'.n.: -/: •:.'.% hstisnorm-i nor mm . o THE COMMITTEE FOR THE SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLAIMS OF THE AT THE CENTER FOR INQUIRY-INTERNATIONAL (ADJACENT TO THE STATE UNIVERSITY OF AT BUFFALO) • AN INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION , Chairman; professor emeritus of philosophy. State University of New York at Buffalo Barry Karr, Executive Director , Senior Research Fellow , Research Fellow , Research Fellow Lee Nisbet Special Projects Director FELLOWS

James E. Alcock,* psychologist. York Univ., Consultants, New York. NY Irmgard Oepen, professor of medicine Toronto Susan Haack. Cooper Senior Scholar in Arts (retired), Marburg, Germany , magician and inventor, Albany, and Sciences, prof, of philosophy, University Loren Pankratz, psychologist, Oregon Health Oregon of Miami Sciences Univ. Marcia Angell, M.D., former editor-in-chief. C. E. M. Hansel, psychologist. Univ. of Wales John Paulos, mathematician, Temple Univ. New England Journal of Medicine Al Hibbs, scientist, Jet Propulsion Laboratory Steven Pinker, cognitive scientist, MIT Robert A. Baker, psychologist. Univ. of Douglas Hofstadter, professor of human Massimo Polidoro, science writer, author, Kentucky understanding and cognitive science, executive director CICAP, Italy Stephen Barrett, M.D., psychiatrist, author. Indiana Univ. Milton Rosenberg, psychologist, Univ. of consumer advocate, Allentown, Pa. Gerald Holton, Mallinckrodt Professor of Chicago Barry Beyerstein,* biopsychologist, Simon Physics and professor of history of science, Wallace Sampson, M.D., clinical professor of Harvard Univ. Fraser Univ., Vancouver, B.C., Canada medicine, Stanford Univ., editor, Scientific Ray Hyman.* psychologist, Univ. of Oregon Irving Biederman, psychologist. Univ. of Review of Leon Jaroff, sciences editor emeritus, Time Southern California Amardeo Sarma, engineer, head of dept. Sergei Kapitza, former editor, Russian edition. Susan Blackmore, Visiting Lecturer, Univ. of at T-Nova Deutsche Telekom, executive the West of England, Bristol Scientific American director, GWUP, Germany. Henri Broth, physicist, Univ. of Nice, France Philip J. Klass, * aerospace writer, engineer Evry Schatzman, former president, French Jan Harold Brunvand, folklorist. professor Edwin C. Krupp, astronomer, director, Griffith Physics Association emeritus of English, Univ. of Utah Observatory Eugenie Scott physical anthropologist, execu­ Verm Bullough, professor of history. California Paul Kurtz,' chairman. Center for Inquiry tive director. National Center for Science State Univ. at Northridge Lawrence Kusche, science writer Education Leon Lederman, emeritus director, Fermilab; Mario Bunge, philosopher. McGill University Robert Sheaffer, science writer John R. Cole, anthropologist, editor, National Nobel laureate in physics Elie A. Shneour, biochemist, author, Center for Science Education Scott Lilienfeld, psychologist, Emory Univ. director, Biosystems Research Institute, Frederick Crews, literary and cultural critic, Lin Zixin, former editor. Science and La Jolla, Calif. professor emeritus of English, Univ. of Technology Daily (China) Dick Smith, film producer, publisher, Terrey California. Berkeley Jere Lipps, Museum of Paleontology, Univ. of Hills, N.S.W.. Australia F. H. C. Crick, biophysicist, Salk Inst, for California, Berkeley Robert Steiner, magician, author, Biological Studies, La Jolla. Calif; Nobel Prize Elizabeth Loftus, professor of psychology, El Cerrito, Calif. laureate Univ. of Washington Jill Cornell Tarter, astronomer. SETI Institute. Paul MacCready, scientist/engineer. Richard Dawkins, zoologist. Oxford Univ. Mountain View, Calif. Cornelis de Jager, professor of astrophysics, AeroVironment, Inc., Monrovia. Calif. Carol Tavris, psychologist and author, Los John Maddox. editor emeritus of Nature Univ. of Utrecht, the Netherlands Angeles, Calif. David Marks, psychologist City University, London. Paul Edwards, philosopher, editor, David Thomas, physicist and mathematician, Encyclopedia of Philosophy Mario Mendez-Acosta, journalist and Peralta. New Mexico Kenneth Feder, professor of anthropology. science writer, Mexico City, Mexico Stephen Toulmin, professor of philosophy. Central Connecticut State Univ. Marvin Minsky, professor of media arts and Univ. of Southern California Antony Flew, philosopher. Reading Univ., U.K. sciences, M.I.T. Neil deGrasse Tyson, astrophysicist and direc­ Andrew Fraknoi, astronomer, Foothill College, David Morrison, space scientist, NASA Ames tor, Hayden Planetarium, Los Altos Hills. Calif. Research Center Marilyn vos Savant Parade magazine con­ ,* science writer, editor. Richard A. Muller, professor of physics. Univ. tributing editor and CBS News correspondent SKEPTICAL INQUIRER of Calif., Berkeley Steven Weinberg, professor of physics and Yves Galifret. vice-president. Affiliated H. Narasimhaiah, physicist, president, astronomy, Univ. of Texas at Austin; Nobel Organizations: France Bangalore Science Forum, India Prize laureate ,* author, critic Dorothy Nelkin, sociologist, New York Univ. Murray Gell-Mann, professor of physics, Santa Joe Nickell,* senior research fellow, CSICOP Richard Wiseman, psychologist. University of Fe Institute; Nobel Prize laureate Lee Nisbet* philosopher, Medaille College Hertfordshire Thomas Gilovich, psychologist. Cornell Univ. Bill Nye, science educator and television host, Marvin Zelen, statistician, Harvard Univ. Henry Gordon, magician, columnist, Toronto Nye Labs * Member, CSICOP Executive Council Saul Green. PhD, biochemist president of ZOL James E. Oberg. science writer (Affiliations given for identification only.)

• • • Visit the CSICOP Web site at http://www.csicop.org • • •

The SKErnt'Al INQMRER (ISSN 0194-6730) is published bimonthly by the Committee for the Articles, reports, reviews, and letters publidied in the SMITKAI INQ) IRI.R represent the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal. 1310 Sweet Home Rd., Amherst. NY views and work of individual authors. Their publication does not necessarily constitute an 14228. Printed in U.S.A. Periodicals postage paid at Butt Jo. NY. Subscription prices: one year endorsement by CSICOP or its members unless so stated. (six issues). S35; two years. $60; three years, $84; single issue. $4.95. Canadian and torcien orders: CopyrrigjH ©2002 by die Commlivcc '«•• il.c Scientific [nvctucauioa of Claims of the Payment in U.S. funds drawn on a U.S. bank must accompany orders; please add US$10 per year Paranormal. All right*, reserved. The SftXPIH M KijURrK is J suitable on 16mm microfilm. for shipping. Canadian and foreign customers are encouraged to use Visa of MasterCard. 35mm microfilm, jnj 105mm microfiche from UmvcrMis Microfilms International and is Inquiries from the media and the public about the work of the Committee should be made indexed in the Reader's Ciuidc to Periodical titcrjiuie to Paul Kurtz, Chairman. CSICOP. Box 703. Amherst. NY 14226-0703 Tel.: 716-636-1425. Subscriptions and changes of address should be addressed to: SKEFiH M INQIiRER. BOS FAX-716-636-1733. "03. Amherst. NY 14226-0703. Or call loll-fcc I -800-634-1610 (outside U V .all "16-636- Manuscripts, letters, books for review, and editorial inquiries should be addressed to Kcndrick 1425). Old address as well as new arc necessary for change of subscribers address, with six Frazicr. Editor. SKEPTKAI Lsytmu. 944 Deer Drive NE. .Albuquerque. \'M 8712Z Fax 505- weeks advance notice. Sunt* M |M.-I IRtR subscribers may not speak on behalf of CSICOP 828-2080. Before submitting any manuscript, please consult our Guide for Authors for format and or the SKEFTIGU INQUIRER references requirements. It is on our Web site at hrrrK//w»w.csKop.or^si/gtude-ror-aurhor\ html Postmaster Send changes of address to SKEPIK U K'.K IBtR. Bm "03. Amherst. M and on page 69 of rhe March/April rssue. Or you may send a tax request to the editor. 14226-0703. 44 Are Skeptics Cynical? Popular Misunderstandings Skeptical Inquirer of Skeptics November/December 2002 • VOL. 26, NO. 6 Many people seem to confuse cynicism with , and believe that critical thinking results in a negative attitude ARTICLES about life. However, this opinion rests on a number of mis­ 22 Politicizing the Virgin Mary: taken assumptions about the nature of skepticism. Skeptics The Instance of the Madonna of must correct these misconceptions if they hope for the wider Medjugorje application of critical thinking.

Apparently individual experiences of the paranormal can, PHIL MOLE on some occasions, be shown to arise largely out of the

broadest social forces, including even those that result in COLUMNS cross-national warfare. RAYMOND A. EVE EDITOR'S NOTE: Statistical Self-Deceptions, and When History Isn't 4

27 Hypothesis Testing and the Nature NEWS AND COMMENT Washington Post Commemoration of 1952 UFO Sighting Omits of Skeptical Investigations Telling Details / Microanalytical Great Walter C. McCrone, Dies / Testing hypotheses is the fundamental activity of scientists Anti-Gravity Shield Rises Again, and the Zero-Point Fringe / and skeptics. Now, a debate within the scientific commu­ Psychics Wrong About Chandra Levy / Houdini Reappears / nity may be about to radically change the way we think Martin Gardner Donates Book Collection to Center for Inquiry about and conduct tests in the sciences. Library 5 MASSIMO PIGLIUCCI INVESTIGATIVE FILES Psychic Pets and Pet Psychics 31 A Presentation Without Arguments: JOE NICKELL 12 Dembski Disappoints PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS William Dembski is a prominent advocate for Intelligent The X-Planet: The Truth is Nowhere in Sight Design (ID). In his presentation to the Fourth World ROBERT SHEAFFER 16 Skeptics Conference in Burbank, California, he avoided NOTES ON A STRANGE WORLD discussing the substance of the controversy, thus laying bare The Search for Margery the futility of ID wherein specious rationalization substi­ MASSIMO POLIDORO 19 tutes for evidence. NEW BOOKS, ETC 54 MARK PERAKH SCIENCE BEST SELLERS 53 FORUM 35 Hugo Gernsback, Unintelligent Design Skeptical Crusader PAUL GILES 55 Throughout the 1920s and 1930s magazine publisher and Its a Good Thing Cows Can't Fly in Mobile "father of science fiction" Hugo Gernsback used his popular RALPH ESTLING 57 publications to fight a one-man war against . FOLLOW-UP Virtually every issue of magazines such as Science & Econometric Modeling, Guns, and Murder Statistics Invention contained debunking articles, tests on claims for JOHN R. LOTT, JR. (Reply by TED GOERTZEL) 59 psychic abilities and extraordinary medical devices, and Response to The High Cost of Skepticism' offers of substantial cash awards to anyone who performs a STANLEY BERENT (Reply by CAROL TAVRIS) 61 successful demonstration Richard Wiseman Replies to Gary Schwartz RON MILLER RICHARD WISEMAN 65

40 Alternative Medicine LETTERS TO THE EDITOR 66 and Pseudoscience Comments of a Biophysicist BOOK REVIEWS Many claims of alternative medicine practitioners and para­ The Skeptical Environmentalist." normal investigators are at odds with scientific knowledge. A Measuring the Real State of the World biophysicist deals with the biophysical aspects of these claims, By Bjorn Lomborg some widely known, some specific to the Czech Republic. RICHARD M. FISHER .49 VOJTECH MORNSTEIN K.l.S.S. Guide to the Unexplained By Joel Levy Cover Credit: Mary Evans Picture Gallery .52 EDITOR'S NOTE Skeptical Inquirer THE MA£A2IHI fOR SCIENCE «ND REASON

EDITOR Statistical Self-Deceptions, and When History Isn't Kendrick Frazier EDITORIAL BOARD James E. Alcock f you've ever been puzzled when researchers with legitimate scientific cre­ Barry Beyerstein Thomas Casten Identials claim near-astronomical that their experimental data Martin Gardner showing evidence of (fill in the blank, for instance) are not due to Ray Hyman Lawrence Jones chance, then you must read Massimo Pigliucci's article in this issue. In Philip J. Klass Paul Kurtz "Hypothesis Testing and the Nature of Skeptical Investigations" Pigliucci Joe Nickell shows the conceptual/statistical trap that leads to so much honest self-decep­ Lee Nisbet Amardeo Sarma tion when analyzing the results of such experiments with standard statistical Bela Scheiber techniques. And he clearly explains a better, more insightful way of analysis, Eugenie Scott slowly gaining acceptance in the scientific community, that instead examines CONSULTING EDITORS Robert A. Baker the likelihoods of competing hypotheses and is much more in accord with how Susan J. Blackmore John R. Cole scientists actually think and carry out their work. Kenneth L. Feder C E. M. Hansel E. C. Krupp Scott O. Lilienfeld The major TV networks aren't the only ones guilty of broadcasting questionable David F. Marks James E. Oberg pseudodocumentaries. A welcome recent article in the Dallas Morning News by Robert Sheaffer Olin Chism chronicles "extravagant, scientifically suspect claims" appearing in David E. Thomas Richard Wiseman cable "fact-TV" channels that we normally consider "educational," such as die MANAGING EDITOR Discovery, Learning, and History channels. One might think something called Benjamin Radford the History channel would deal only with legitimate history, but the article ART DIRECTOR Lisa A. Hutter quotes the channel's programming chief: "You have to understand, too, that wc PRODUCTION are a commercial network governed by different rules than PBS. A reasonable Paul Loynes Christopher Fix rating size is important to us." He said shows such as the channel's "Haunted CARTOONIST History" are done as entertainment, "with a little of a wink." The Learning Rob Pudim Channel presented a credulous two-hour program on "Atlantis in the Andes" WEB PAGE DESIGN Patrick Fitzgerald, Designer with litde skepticism. Chism reports on some scientists' experiences of being Amanda Chesworth Kevin Christopher misled by TV producers into thinking they are participating in a scientifically Rob Beeston responsible production only to find out otherwise when it airs. Jim Undcrdown PUBLISHER'S REPRESENTATIVE of our Center for Inquiry's National Media Center in Los Angeles is quoted, as Barry Karr are CSICOP chairman Paul Kurtz and several scientists who have written CORPORATE COUNSEL recently for SI. We all need to call more attention to the egregious nonsense Brenton N. VerPloeg BUSINESS MANAGER these pseudoscientific TV programs promulgate unashamedly to the public. Sandra Lesniak The Learning, Discovery, and History channels have an obligation to present FISCAL OFFICER Paul Paulin claims and issues objectively and with some sense of critical evaluation of sus­ CHIEF DEVELOPMENT OFFICER pect claims, not to just titillate and entertain without regard for scientific evi­ Arthur Urrows DEVELOPMENT OFFICER dence. Furthermore, the way some producers treat good scientists who honestly James Kimberly think they are contributing to public knowledge and who then find their words CHIEF DATA OFFICER edited into a totally different context or ignored altogether if they don't support Michael Cione STAFF the programs' sensationalistic themes is shameful. Darlene Banks Patricia Beauchamp Jennifer Miller Heidi Shively Buzz-off, crackpot—I suppose scientists and skeptics can't use this option (can Ranjit Sandhu Anthony Santa Lucia we?), but who can blame Apollo 11 astronaut Edwin "Buzz" Aldrin for doing John Sullivan so. Aldrin, the second man to walk on the moon, with Neal Armstrong in July Vance Vigrass PUBLIC RELATIONS DIRECTOR 1969. didn't argue with an obnoxious moon-landing-denyer and filmmaker Kevin Christopher who physically confronted him in a Beverly Hills, California, hotel and chal­ YOUNG SKEPTICS PROGRAM DIRECTOR lenged the veracity of the moon landings. Aldrin punched the idiot in the jaw. Amanda Chesworth INQUIRY MEDIA PRODUCTIONS Thomas Flynn DIRECTOR OF LIBRARIES Timothy S. Binga

The SUFTIOU. INQUIRE" is the official journal of the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal, an international organisation.

4 November/December 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER NEWS AND COMMENT

Washington Post Commemoration of 1952 UFO Sighting Omits Telling Details of Report that Explained Radar Blips

PHILLIP J. KLASS report, which stated that mysterious temperature-inversion conditions, which blips on radar "do not represent a new often occur during die hot, humid sum­ The July 21, 2002, Washington Post "com­ phenomena nor are they peculiar to the mer months, a patch of warmer air exists memorated" die fiftieth anniversary of a Washington area." Thus die details of at higher altitude. This causes the UFO incident that made headlines the CAA investigation and its finding upward-looking beam of an airport radar around the globe when mysterious blips would be newsworthy for Washington to be refracted downward so it is reflected appeared briefly on me primitive radars at Post readers. Instead, Carlson devoted off of autos, ships, and surface objects. As several airports near Washington. At the much of his article to extracts from a the temperature-inversion conditions time, in 1952, barely five years after book published in die mid-1950s by shift location, a surface-object's radar blip UFOs first attracted national attention, then recently retired Capt. Edward may disappear from one part of the Ruppelt, who had headed Project Blue radar's display and another may appear there were some even in high positions Book, die Air Force's office some distance away. If a traffic controller who suspected that UFOs might be for investigating UFO reports. erroneously assumes the two blips are extraterrestrial craft. II so, perhaps they from the same object, he can conclude were reconnoitering die nation's capital Early in the CAA investigation die that the single object is travelling at very prior to an attack. The recent Washington logs of radar controllers were examined to high speed.) Post article by staff writer Peter Carlson list all instances of mysterious radar blips was headlined "Alien Armada." from May through August of 1952. Because the Washington enroute traf­ Although Carlson's article occupied The tabulation, contained in die CAA fic control center was the only such nearly two pages, regrettably he opt­ report, was then taken to the Weather center dien outfitted with long-range ed to omit important details from a Bureau's analysis section. "It was dien radar, the CAA investigators checked sixteen-page report on the results of an found that a temperature inversion had witJi airports equipped with shorter- investigation by the Civil Aeronautics been indicated in almost every instance range terminal area radars to determine when die unidentified radar targets or Administration—now the Federal Avia­ if diey too had experienced mysterious visual objects had been reported," tion Administration. During our two- radar blips. The CAA report stated that according to the CAA report. (Normally, hour interview I loaned him a copy of Chicago's Midway airport had displayed the temperature of the air decreases unidentified targets "on many occasions. the CAA report and urged him to read with increasing altitude. During or at least scan it. This CAA investiga­ tion was conducted immediately follow­ ing the Washington radar-UFO inci­ dents, but die report, issued the following spring (May 1953), is never even men­ tioned by those who believe that UFOs are ET craft because it offers pro­ saic explanations for the incidents. Carlson mentions the CAA investigation report only very briefly. I also gave Carlson a copy of a recent issue of my Skeptics UFO Newsletter (SUN) containing a review of the recent book Invasion Washington: UFOs Over The Capital, by pro- UFOlogist Kevin Randle. SUN noted that Randle did not even mention the CAA report in his 312-page book. My review quoted briefly from die CAA

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 2002 5 NEWS AND COMMENT particularly when temperature inversions borne radar and a separate radar operator V. Menkello) does not even mention had been in effect." Similar experience to spot enemy aircraft. (The F-94C's "radar" or the 1952 radar incidents any­ was reported by Cleveland's airport, and radar operated at a higher frequency where in his report. Boston's Logan airport reported anom­ than airport radars and therefore was not Carlson's article concludes by quoting alous blips "on rare occasions." as susceptible to temperature inversion former Washington traffic controller But the CAA investigation included effects.) When the two F-94Cs were vec­ Howard Cocklin, who remains convinced observation of the enroute center's radar tored to the vicinity of the UFO blips, that mysterious craft visited the nation's with data measurement. For example, their radars were unable to spot any capital in 1952: "I saw it on die screen on the night of August 13, 1952, the craft. When they were running low on and out the window. It was a whitish- radar's Moving Target Indicator had fuel and returned to base, two more F- blue object. Not a light a solid form. been set to filter out (not display) non- 94Cs were dispatched to the Washington An object. A saucer-shaped object." Pre­ moving ground targets up to ten miles area and were vectored to the mysterious sumably, mysterious blips have appeared from the radar's antenna. According to radar blips. None of the four aircraft on Washington area and other FAA radars the CAA report, "Beyond this range the radars detected any craft, as one of the F- during die last fifty years, but they have scope was clear except for a few perma­ 94C pilots (Capt. John W McHugo) been correctly identified. nent echoes that were visible. Suddenly, later wrote me. In McHugo's letter he Veteran Washington, D.C., aerospace at approximately 19:57 Eastern said that "One pilot reported a light but journalist Philip J. Klass is author of Standard Time (EST) a group of seven we arc confident it was a motor-vehicle numerous books critically examining strong stationary targets became visible headlight." (I gave a copy of McHugo's UFO claims, chairman of the CSICOP's in an area about fifteen miles north- letter to Carlson, who opted not to men­ UFO Subcommittee, and editor of tion its content in his article.) northeast of the radar antenna. During Skeptics UFO Newsletter. the next two or three antenna revolu­ During both July 19-20 and July tions, the area on the scope between 26-27 incidents, the traffic controllers Washington and became asked aircraft flying in the vicinity if they heavily sprinkled with stationary targets saw the mysterious craft. And a few Microanalytical Great, in a belt about six miles wide. reported seeing a very fast-moving light, Walter C. McCrone, Dies "A group of additional targets became which might have been fireballs from the visible in an area approximately ten to fif­ Aquarids meteor shower, reaching its Walter C. McCrone—world-famous teen miles south of the radar antenna. peak activity around July 29. A few odier microanalyst, CSICOP fellow, and This was evidence of die beginning of a pilots reported seeing a very bright light, Shroud of Turin nemesis—died July 10, temperature inversion. Within the next but the planet Jupiter (which triggers 2002, at the age of 86. minute at approximately 19:58 EST, four many UFO reports) was especially bright McCrone's distinguished career unidentified moving targets showed up after midnight during late July of 1952. included a Ph.D. in organic chemistry five miles southeast of the radar antenna In the concluding portion of from Cornell in 1942, and several years' and moved in a southerly direction. ... Carlson's article, he quotes well-known work as a microscopist at what is now For the next four and one-half hours, pro-UFOlogist Bruce Maccabee, a Navy the Illinois Institute of Technology. many unidentified targets were carefully physicist: "Maccabee believes there were In 1956 he became an independent plotted with grease pencil on the face of solid objects in the air over Washington consultant and founded his now-famous the scope. The time for each was entered fifty years ago. And I think those solid on these plots in order to calculate objects were not made by us.'. . . Like ground speed." CAA investigators con­ Klass, Maccabee buttresses his argument ducted several such experiments in mid- widi an official government report. It's August, as disclosed in their report. "In called 'Quantitative Aspects of Mirages' each case, target directions corresponded and it was issued by the Air Force in with the wind directions reported aloft," 1969. 'They proved in their own study according to the CAA report. there wasn't enough temperature inver­ As Carlson reports in his article, sion to cause this effect,' he says. 'The when mysterious blips appeared on the Washington sightings cannot be ex­ Washington radars a week later (July plained as a radar mirage.'" 26-27), the USAF dispatched two F- If Maccabee had studied more care­ 94C interceptors from an air base near fully the report he cited, he would dis­ Wilmington, Delaware. The F-94C was cover that it deals with visual mirages, equipped with the most advanced air­ and its author (First Lieutenant Frederick

6 November/December 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER NEWS AND COMMENT

Research Associates. In 1960 he founded awards (for example, from the American shield work, they invested another mil­ his complementary organization, the Microchemical Society in 1970 and the lion dollars (WN 22 Jan 99). When it McCrone Research Institute, which Criminalistics Section of the American still didn't work, they decided the tests would eventually teach more than Academy of Forensic Sciences in 1984), were "inconclusive" and sank another 20,000 "students," including forensic an­ in 2000 the American Chemical Society million into it (WN 12 Oct 01). I have alysts from the FBI and orJier crime lab­ honored him for his pioneering work in identified seven warning signs of bad oratories. He also founded a similar facil­ chemical microscopy. The society specif­ science at www.bobpark.com. The ity in London, McCrone Scientific, and ically cited his analytical work on the Podkletnov gravity shield fits all seven. created the international journal The Mi­ Shroud of Turin. So why would Boeing choose to spend croscope. Perhaps his most lasting contri­ McCrone is survived by his wife— millions to test a ridiculous claim by an bution will prove to be his multivolume the former Lucy Beman whom he mar­ obscure Russian physicist that has failed work, The Particle Atlas, a massive com­ ried in 1957—an accomplished micro- every test and is a physical impossibility pilation of photomicrographs of various scopist in her own right. to begin with? Okay, so the Pentagon is substances to aid in their identification. paying for it. But there's also this goofy McCrone's motto was at once both book by Nick Cook, who writes for Although much of McCrone serious and witty: "Think small." It seems Jane's Defense Weekly. Associates' work involved industrial also appropriately ironic for one who will matters, they also became renowned for be remembered as a giant in his field. Book Review: The Hunt for Zero their forensic expertise. For example, Point by Nick Cook, If this book is —Joe Nickell they were decisive in a criminal case about controlling gravity, what's with the when they matched a tiny bullet frag­ Joe Nickell is CSICOP's Senior Research "zero point"? The confusion is natural; ment, taken from the left hand of the Fellow. both lie within the province of fringe sci­ accused murderer, with an area missing entists who haven't a clue of where the from the fatal bullet. The evidence sup­ real world stops and the fantasy world of ported the defendant's claim of a strug­ Atlantis and UFOs begins. Cook is not a gle, and he was set free. Anti-Gravity Shield scientist of any sort; in his world, these McCrone's expertise solved many Rises Again, and the guys are the insiders. Don't look for historical mysteries. He determined Zero-Point Fringe them in the pages of Phys Rev; they're not from a lock of Beethoven's hair that the a bunch of pointy-headed academics. composer died of lead poisoning; simi­ The following items are from Robert L They are part of the black world of really larly, he found that Napoleon Bonaparte Park's weekly electronic newsletter "What's important top secret stuff like—well, had not been poisoned with arsenic as New" (American Physical Society, Washing­ electrogravitics. So who some had theorized. McCrone discov­ ton, D.C., and University of ). ered that the Vinland Map, purporting to show that Leif Ericson had visited August 2, 2002: America some five centuries before Anti-Gravity: A Gravity \ Columbus, had traces of anatasc, a pig­ Shield Would Be Very Nice, \ ment not synthesized until about 1920. But. .. . Never has an idea I McCrone was employed by an galleries with no prospect for success around the world to authenticate—or so captivated corporate not—various paintings attributed to old research managers who masters, but he is perhaps best known for either never studied or having proved die notorious Shroud of never understood the Turin a fake. He identified red ocher and most basic laws of physics. vermilion pigments and a tempera binding Both Boeing in the U.S. medium on the doth, consistent with the and BAE Systems, the reported confession of a fourteenth-cen­ British aerospace giant, are tury artist. For his efforts he was, he said, trying to make the "drummed out" of me pro-Shroud group Podkletnov gravity shield tli.n had commissioned his analyses, but he work. BAE has already was vindicated in 1988 when radiocarbon been at it for two years dating verified that the cloth was manufac­ (WN 31 Mar 00), with tured between 1260 and 1390. no success. When NASA Although he had received many couldn't make the Podkletnov

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 2002 7 NEWS AND COMMENT

exactly fed Nick Cook this enormous pile can hold on the anti-gravity nonsense of horse manure? If you're a regular reader stirred up by Nick Cook's goofy book, of WN, you've already met them all. The Hunt for Zero Point. We braced for Fringe: Where Everything Is sensational stories in the National Secret, and Nothing Is Impossible. Enquirer and on Art Bell, but where does When Cook set out on his search for Cook turn up? Gasp, on National Public "the biggest secret since the atom Radio's Fresh Air. "I am not a scientist," bomb," he went straight to the Integrity Nick Cook admits in a brilliant under­ Research Institute (IRI), in statement, "but I enlisted some help." So Washington, D.C., where you can buy who did he enlist? "There are scientists books and with titles like working right on the cutting edge Dr. "Holistic Physics and Consciousness" Hal Puthoff is pioneering this whole zero- (WN 5 Mar 99). IRI is really Tom point energy field " Well, there's a Valone, a former patent examiner who name we know. One of the first scientists lost his job in the fallout from the to vouch for spoon-bender Uri Geller, Conference on Free Energy (WN 21 Puthoff headed the CIA's remote-viewing May 99). He had recruited Paul program, and is said to have sent his own LaViolette, who claims the B-2 uses mind to explore the surface of the planet anti-gravity, reverse engineered from a Mercury (WN 11 Mar 94). Guest host crashed flying saucer. He was also fired Barbara Bogaev, who also is not a scien­ (WN 18 Aug 00). They sent Cook to tist, asks how anti-gravity machines work? the Institute for Advanced Study. Not They all spin, Nick Cook explains. "Some buster—no armchair theoretician he! the one at Princeton; the one at Austin, theories say if you spin this zero-point The stamp belatedly honoring him Texas. It consists of Harold Puthoff, energy field that exists all around us, some was issued on July 3 in New York City, who wants to extract energy from the weird and magical things start popping coinciding with the one-hundredth zero point of the vacuum. He used to out, one of which is an anti-gravitational anniversary of the Society of American run the CIA's "" pro­ effect." There you have it—an authorita­ Magicians, over which Houdini presided gram, which was inspired by Mind tive explanation on NPR. for the last nine years of his life. The Reach, a book he wrote with Russell stamp was previously unveiled on Targ (WN 11 Mar 94). Finally, Cook Robert L. Park is director of the Halloween 2001, the seventy-fifth sought advice from Charles Piatt, Washington office of the American anniversary of the great showman's death. founder of CryoCare, a company that Physical Society, a physics professor at the Depicting a confident Houdini at keeps human heads bobbing in liquid University of Maryland, and author of the peak of his career, the stamp is based nitrogen until scientists can figure out Voodoo Science. on a 1911 lithographed poster. It also how to restart them (WN 21 Jul 00). encodes a hidden image that seemingly enwraps Houdini in chains—an effect August 9: Houdini Reappears visible through the U.S. Postal Service's Anti-Gravity: Was This the Light­ official Stamp Decoder. (1874-1926)—world- weight Story of the Year? The Eastside The magical effect is especially famous magician, escape artist, and para­ Journal in Bellevue, Washington, quotes appropriate for one who exposed and normal investigator—has received a long- a Boeing spokesman as saying the com­ replicated many bogus "spirit" pictures. overdue accolade: his portrait is featured on pany is not funding any anti-gravity Houdini used his knowledge of to a new U.S. commemorative postage stamp. research (WN 2 Aug 02), nor is it rout many fake paranormal claimants— Born Ehrich Weiss in Budapest, he attempting to duplicate Podkletnov's not only spiritualist mediums but others changed his name as a tribute to the results. Ha! Nick Cook warned us they like "the Spaniard with X-ray Eyes" and great French conjurer, Jean-Eugene would say that. He would say it's just an "Egyptian Man." disinformation, part of the massive gov­ Robert-Houdin, and went on to become Today's skeptical investigators follow ernment coverup. one of the greatest magical showmen of all times. He performed mystifying illu­ in his footsteps. CSICOP even features an annual Halloween seance at which— August 16: sions and daredevil escapes, flew the first although Houdini invariably fails to Cook Book: Fresh Air Offers a Recipe airplane over Australia, produced and appear—his great life is honored. for Stale Baloney. Two weeks ago, WN starred in feature films, and became the dumped as much cold water as one page twentieth century's premier - —Joe Nickel!

8 November/December 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER NEWS AND COMMENT

Psychics Wrong About some Windex for her crystal ball: The remains were found across a steep in­ Chandra Levy cline in a heavily wooded area—perhaps near "some trees" but clearly not "in a The body of missing Washington, D.C., marshy area," since a marsh located on an intern Chandra Levy was finally found incline is geographically impossible. At in late May 2002 by a man searching for least Browne isn't alone in her faulty psy­ turtles in Rock Creek Park. Following chic powers: None of the other thousands Levy's disappearance, thousands of psy­ of tips from psychics led police to her chics told police where their powers said body either. Levy would be found (see "'Psychic Flies' —Benjamin Radford

Benjamin Radford is Managing Editor of the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER

Martin Gardner ous articles and news clippings. Among the topics covered are creationism. Donates Book Catholic artifacts, psi, mediums, para- Collection to Center science, and monsters, but also files on Washington Metropolitan Police officers secure the physics, chemistry, astronomy, animal perimeter on May 23, 2002. around the area where for Inquiry Library the remains of Chandra Levy were found in the talk, anthropology, and other sciences. Rock Creek Park in Washington. D.C Af P PHOTO/ Shawn Thew The Center for Inquiry-International The Center for Inquiry Library Library in Amherst, New York, received already houses one of the largest skepti­ Feed on Levy Disappearance," SKEPTI­ an extensive collection of books on the cal and freethought libraries in the CAL INQUIRER, November/December paranormal, pseudoscience, and fringe world. The addition of Martin 2001). The sad end to her disappear­ religions from Martin Gardner. Gardner's priceless collection will fur­ ance does at least provide us with the Gardner, considered to be one of the ther enrich the Library as a research opportunity to see how accurate those leading skeptics in the world, donated resource. The intensive process of cata­ psychics were. over 400 books and reference works and loguing this important addition will get underway shortly. Self-proclaimed psychic encyclopaedias to the library's collection. told Fox News Channel's Paula Zahn that Each book will have a name plate in —Paul Kurtz Levy's body was near "some trees down in honor of Martin Gardner affixed to it. a marshy area." Browne may need to buy There are also extensive files and numer­ Paul Kurtz is Chairman of CSICOP D

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CENTER FOR INQUIRY - WEST Regional Headquarters and National Media Center A joint project of the Center for Inquiry™, the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal, and the Council for Secular Humanism, each a 501(c)(3) tax-exempt educational corporation P.O. Box 741 • Amherst NY 14226-0741 • (716) 636-4869 ext. 311 • FAX (716) 636-1733 INVESTIGATIVE FILES JOE NICKELL

Psychic Pets and Pet Psychics

any believe that the bond be­ Intelligent Goose" appeared in London. tional cueing. Pfungst discovered that tween man and animals, The porker spelled names, solved aridi- Hans began stamping when the ques­ Mknown from great antiquity, metic problems, and even read thoughts tioner leaned forward to observe the includes (ESP). by selecting, from flashcards, words horse's hoof and only stopped when that They cite anecdotal evidence, controver­ thought of by audience members (Jay person relaxed after the correct number sial research data, and the claims of al­ 1986). The goose, advertised as "The was given. Pfungst even played the role of leged psychics. During over three greatest Curiosity ever witnessed," per­ Hans by rapping with his hand while decades of investigating the paranormal, formed such feats as divining a selected friends posed questions. Of twenty- I have often encountered and reviewed playing card, discovering secretly five questioners, all but two gave the such evidence. I have written about selected numbers, and telling time "to a beginning and ending cue without being "talking" animals, appeared with a "pet Minute" by a spectator's own watch aware of doing so (Christopher 1970; psychic" on The Jerry Springer Show, (Christopher 1962, 35). Sebeok 1986). analyzed alleged paranormal communi­ Odier prodigies were Munito die cele­ Of course, trainers could deliberately cations between people and animals brated dog, Toby "The Sapient Pig" (who cue their animals and practice other (both living and dead), and even visited could "Discover a Person's Thoughts"), deceptions, such as secretly gleaning in­ a spiritualists' pet cemetery. Here is a and a "scientific" Spanish pony who formation that the animal would then look at some of what I have found. shared billing with "Two Curious Birds." reveal "psychically." In 1929, the man The latter were "much superior in knowl­ who later coined die term ESP, Dr. J.B. Talking" Animals edge to the Learned Pig" and "die first of Rhine, was taken in by a supposedly Alleged animal prodigies—various "edu­ die kind ever seen in die World." Such telepathic horse named . cated," "talking," and "psychic" crea­ animals typically performed dieir feats by Rhine believed Lady actually had psy­ tures—have long been exhibited. In sev­ stamping a hoof or paw a certain number chic power and he set up a tent near her enteenth-century France, for instance, a of times or by spelling out answers using Virginia barn so he could scientifically famous "talking" horse named Morocco alphabet and number cards (Christopher study her apparent abilities. Lady was seemed to possess such remarkable pow­ 1962; Jay 1986). trained to operate a contraption— ers, including the ability to do mathe­ In 1904 a German horse named somewhat like an enlarged typewriter— matical calculations, that he was charged Clever Hans provoked an investigation consisting of an arrangement of levers with "consorting with the Devil." How­ into his wonderful abilities. "Learned that activated alphabet cards. Lady ever, he saved his own and his master's professors were convinced," wrote Mil- would sway her head over the levers, life when he knelt, seemingly repentant, bourne Christopher (1970, 46), "that then nudge one at a time widi her nose before church authorities. Hans could work out his own solutions to spell out answers to queries In the latter eighteenth century a to madiematical problems and had a bet­ (Christopher 1970; Jay 1986). "Learned Pig" and a "Wonderful ter knowledge of world affairs than most Magician fourteen-year-old children." However, (1970) had an opportunity to assess Joe Nickell is CSICOP's Senior Research psychologist Oskar Pfungst soon deter­ Lady's talents on a visit in 1956. As Fellow and author of numerous investiga­ mined that questioners—including a test, Christopher gave Lady's train­ tive books. Hans's trainer—were providing uninten­ er, Mrs. Claudia Fonda, a false name.

12 November/December 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER "John Banks." (The real Banks had exhibited the "talking" horse, Morocco, mentioned earlier.) When Christopher subsequently inquired of Lady, "What is my name?," die marc obligingly nudged the levers to spell out B-A-N-K-S. Another test involved writing down numbers which Lady then divined. Given a narrow pad and a long pencil, Christopher suspected Mrs. Fonda might be using a professional mentalists' technique known as "pencil reading," which involves subtly observing die movements of the pencil to learn what was written. So he pretended to write a bold "9" but, while going through die motions, only touched die paper on die THE PSYCHIC HORSE WITH THE 'COLLEGE EDUCATION" downstroke to produce a "1." Although An early advertisement lor "Serrano the Psychic Horse' (courtesy ol the Skeptiseum). he concentrated on die latter number. Lady indicated the answer was 9. story, and credulous paranormalists. In tance away from the house. However, it In short, as the noted magician and fact, a reporter for the Isle of Man seems possible that they are either re­ paranormal investigator observed, Mrs. Examiner once caught Viorrey making a sponding to some unintended signal Fonda gave a "slight movement" of her squeaking noise although her father had (such as recognizing certain noises asso­ training rod whenever Lady's head was insisted the sound came from elsewhere ciated with his getting ready for a hunt­ at the correct letter. That was enough to in the room (Psychic Pets 1996, 72-83). ing trip) or that he is selectively remem­ cue the swaying mare to stop and nudge In part the case recalls the celebrated bering those occasions when the dogs' that lever. Thus, Lady was revealed to be magician/ventriloquist Signor Antonio excitement happens to coincide with a well-trained animal, not a telepathic Blitz who enjoyed strolling through a his intentions. Another friend says he one (Christopher 1970; Nickell 1989). village and engaging in conversation once had dogs who seemed to know No doubt the same was true of her pre­ with horses tied at hitching posts. Re­ when he was going to take them for a decessors, whose exhibitors were often portedly, he also "once discussed the walk, but he decided he must have performing magicians. state of the weather with a dead mack­ unconsciously signaled them (such as In one case a "talking" animal was erel in a fish market and almost created by glancing in the direction of their allegedly just that: a mongoose who a panic" (Christopher 1970, 49). hanging leashes). spoke in complete sentences. Gef, as he There is also considerable anecdotal was called, not only spoke English but Psychic Pets evidence of animals supposedly know­ many foreign phrases as well. He Trickery aside, what about reports of ing when their masters were about to appeared in 1931 on the Irving farm on apparent animal ESP? Anecdotal evi­ suffer harm or were being harmed the Isle of Man (in the Irish Sea) but was dence suggests some animals may have (Guiley 1991). The operable word here never reliably seen. Instead, he tossed precognitive awareness of various types is anecdotal such talcs are notoriously stones at unwelcome visitors, "urinated" of natural catastrophes, becoming agi­ untrustworthy. For example, they may through cracks in wails, and—although tated before earthquakes, volcanic erup­ be subject to selective recall, so that he was partial to the family's twelve-year- tions, cyclones, and other events. after a death, say, the deceased's dog is old daughter, Viorrey, and allegedly lived However, the creatures may actually be recalled to have "acted strangely" some­ in her room, he sometimes mischievously responding to subtle sensory factors— time before; other instances of the ani­ locked her inside with a lock that, report­ like variations in air pressure and mals' odd behavior, that did not coin­ edly, could only be accessed from outside tremors in the ground—that are cide with the event, are conveniently the room. Psychic investigators supposed beyond the range of human perception forgotten. Additional problems with Gef was a or perhaps a ghost. (Guiley 1991). anecdotal evidence include the narra­ Not surprisingly, there were skeptics, Something of the sort may explain tor's ego and bias, memory distortion, including many fellow residents on the some instances of apparent animal pre­ and other factors. Isle of Man. who believed Viorrey was science. For example, a Kentucky friend Scientific tests of animal "psi" (a playing pranks. They accused her of of mine insists that his dogs seem to parapsychological term applied to ESP using ventriloquism and other tricks, know when he has decided to go hunt­ and psychokinesis) remain controver­ the effects of which were hyped by fam­ ing, exhibiting a marked excitement sial (Ostrandcr and Schrocder 1971; ily members, reporters in search of a even though they are lodged some dis­ Guiley 1991). Rigorous experimental

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 2002 13 protocols designed to exclude normal communicating with them by ESP or immediately licks Leigh's hand, that the explanations (such as sensory cueing) other paranormal means, such as animal "fears no one"; but then she tend not to show evidence for psi. An through or assistance from the quickly adds that it is "not an uncondi­ example is the report by Richard seer's "spirit guides" (MacDougall 1983; tional lover." She continues by stating Wiseman et al., "Can animals detect Cooper and Noble 1996). that the pet is "independent" and "not a when their owners arc returning home? Having studied pet psychics at yes dog." Such virtually universal decla­ An experimental test of the 'psychic work—including Gerri Leigh (with rations are not apt to be challenged. pet' phenomenon," published in the whom I appeared on Springer) and 3. Asking questions. Psychics fre­ British Journal of Psychology. Sonya Fitzpatrick (star of the Animal quently seem to provide information when they are in reality fishing for it. The asking of a question may, if it is correct, credit the reader with a hit; Consciously or not, psychics are essentially otherwise it will seem an innocent using the same fortunetellers' query. For instance, Fitzpatrick (2002) technique—""—that is used asks a dog owner, "When was there someone who was with him who went for human subjects. After all, it is the away?" (Unfortunately, this is too good pet owners, not the pets themselves, who a hit, since the young woman seems puzzled and replies that it could have "validate" the pronouncements. been various persons—possibly, one imagines, former boyfriends or other acquaintances.) Questioning also keeps The researchers responded to a sug­ Planet channel's The Pet Psychic)—I find the reader from proceeding too far gestion by that just that they impress audiences with some down a wrong path and allows for mid- such a study be undertaken, and it fol­ very simple ploys. Consciously or not, course correction. lowed a formal test of the alleged phe­ they are essentially using the same for­ 4. Offering vague statements that nomenon by an Austrian television tunetellers' technique—"cold read­ most people can apply specifically to them­ company. That test focused on an ing"—that is used for human subjects. selves. Alleged psychics take advantage English woman and her dog and seemed This is an artful method of gleaning of what is known as "the Barnum successful. Wiseman et al. (1998) con­ information from someone while giving effect"—after showman P. T. Barnum ducted four experiments designed to the impression it is obtained mystically who strove to provide something for rule out the pet's responding to routine (Hyman 1977). After all, it is the pet everyone (French et al. 1991). They or picking up sensory cues (either from owners, not the pets themselves, who learn that people will respond to a the returning owner or from others "validate" the pronouncements. Here is vague, generalized statement by trying aware of the expected time of return), as a look at some of the common cold- to fit it to their own situation. Thus well as people's selective memories and reading techniques used by pet psychics. Fitzpatrick (2002) tells the owner of a selective matching, and other possible A Noting the obvious. Fitzpatrick pet iguana that the creature had experi­ normal explanations. (2002) visits an animal clinic with a enced "a move." Now most people can In all four experiments the dog couple and their infant daughter to tell associate a "move" with their pet: either failed to detect accurately when her them which dog is right for their family. when they acquired it, when they owner set off for home, contradicting After the selection is narrowed to three changed residences, or when they left it claims made on the basis of the previous choices, each is brought out in turn. The with someone to go on vacation, etc. (Austrian TV) study. The experiments first is ambivalent; the second ignores Thus the pet psychic was credited with suggested "that selective memory, mul­ everyone; and the third, Patty, greets the a hit (never mind that she incorrectly tiple guesses and selective matching couple and nuzzles the child. Sonya referred to the female iguana as "he"). could often have sufficient scope to give writes her choice on a slip of paper and 5. Returning messages to animals. an owner the impression of a paranor­ it proves to be the same the couple People who are convinced pets give mal effect." made: Patty. The audience applauds: information to psychics may be willing Patty was apparently their choice too! (I to believe the reverse. Thus Fitzpatrick Pet Psychics know she was mine!) (2002) claims to give animals "mes­ People who are both devoted to their 2. Making safe statements. Fitzpatrick sages"—for example a clarification of pets and credulous about the paranor­ (2002) announces that one pooch "says" something by the owner—by silently mal may easily fall prey to unsubstanti­ he wants to go out more often, and the concentrating for a moment. ated claims of pet psychics. Some pro­ dog's owners accept the assertion. These and other techniques help fess to treat animals' emotional prob­ Similarly, Gerri Leigh (1992) tells the convince the credulous that pet psychics lems, for example, after supposedly owner of an outgoing little dog, who have telepathic or clairvoyant or other

14 November/December 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER powers. Some, like New York psychic tions. And since pets are loved and often at psychic fairs and now styles himself a Christa Carl, even claim to use these regarded as members of a family, it is "psychic medium." But on Dateline NBC powers to help locate lost pets. Carl not surprising diat people occasionally he was caught cheating: attempting to gained notoriety "for being called in to experience "visitations" from their pass off some previously gained knowl­ find Tabitha, the cat who disappeared departed animal friends just as they do edge as spirit revelation (Nickell 2001b). on a Tower Air flight." Actually, my their human ones. However, diese seem Mediums like Edward and Van reading of the case is that Carl did not to have similar explanations to those of Praagh occasionally mention a pet— find the cat but that the cat found other apparitional experiences. For usually a dog—in a reading. Given the Carl—or rather found her owner. example, some who hear a dog's phan­ Barnum effect (discussed earlier), this Tabitha was known to be hiding on the tom bark or footsteps, or see (as one re­ usually gets a hit. For instance, on Larry airplane and, after twelve days and thirty ported) "a shadow jump up on the bed," King Live (February 26, 1999), Van do so just after rousing from sleep thousand miles of flight that engendered Praagh told a caller: "I'm also picking up (Cohen 1984) and may dius be having negative publicity and a threatened law­ something on a dog. So 1 don't know "waking dreams." These are common suit, the airline grounded the plane so why, but I'm picking up a dog around hallucinations that occur in the twilight the animal could be retrieved. The cat you." Note the vagueness of the refer­ between being awake and asleep and eventually came out to her owner—and ence—not even an indication of to Carl, who claimed credit. That was for supposedly helping the animal resolve a problem with "one of her past lives" and "showing her how to come If an animal returns, Christa Carl can out" of the plane's drop ceiling (Cooper claim credit; if not, she has a ready and Noble 1996). To find other lost animals, Carl rationalization: some animals do not claims she uses "visualization" to help wish to come back and, says Carl, them "find their way home." Thus, if an animal returns, Carl can claim credit; if "I have to respect the not, she has a ready rationalization: animal's wishes." some animals do not wish to come back and, says Carl, "I have to respect the ani­ mal's wishes" (Cooper and Noble 1996). exhibit content that "may be related to whether the animal is dead or alive or Some per psychics offer still other the dreamer's current concerns" (Baker what link it might have to the person. services. For example, Oklahoma 1990). Similarly, apparitions that are But the caller offers the validation, "Oh, "equine parapsychologist" Karen seen during wakefulness tend to occur my dog died two years ago." Hamel-Noble claims to heal horses. She when one is tired, daydreaming (per­ Some pet psychics, like Christa Carl, uses her hands to detect "the source of haps while performing routine work), or conduct "seance readings" for animals weakness in their energy fields"—i.e., the like (Nickell 2001a, 291-292). who have "passed over." Asked to give their imagined auras—then supplies With the advent of —the an example of such a seance, she replied compensating "energy" from herself belief that the dead can be contacted— (in Cooper and Noble 1996, 102): (Cooper and Noble 1996). However, certain self-styled "mediums" began to Brandy, a dog, had been placed in a since auras remain scientifically offer themselves as intermediaries with kennel by her owner when she got unproved and tests of psychics' abilities the spirit realm. Some produced bogus married. She broke away from the to see them have repeatedly failed spirit "materializations" and other phys­ kennel and got killed. (Nickell 2000), Hamel-Noble's claims ical phenomena, but these were fre­ Her owner called me and told me require proof, not just her feelings and quently exposed as tricks by investiga­ she was having a hard time and wanted to communicate with Brandy. assertions. Perhaps the animals' per­ tors like magician Harry Houdini. When I did [he reading with Brandy, ceived illnesses are merely responding to Today's mediums tend to limit them­ 1 learned from her that she didn't their natural healing mechanisms and selves to purely "mental phenomena," know why she had been put in the die medical treatments Hamel-Noble i.e., die use of "psychic ability" to obtain kennel. She had felt abandoned, unloved, uncared for. provides them—including penicillin messages from "the odicr side." Her owner should have told her injections (Cooper and Noble 1996). Such mediums—like James Van ahead of time why she needed to put Praagh. , , her in a kennel. 1 explained it to Bran­ Pet Mediums George Anderson, and Sylvia Browne— dy, and now she's at peace. In the popular imagination, animals, appear to rely largely on the old psychics' like their human counterparts, may con­ standby, cold reading. In fact Edward tinue tJicir existence after •.loath, there (real name John MaGee Jr.) came to PSYCHIC PETS AND PET PSYCHICS being many reports of animal appari­ as an erstwhile fortuneteller Continued on page 18

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 2002 15 PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS ROBERT SHEAFFER

The X-Planet: The Truth is Nowhere in Sight

et ready for the end of the last name). Since 1995 she has been lings about the arrival of a body alter­ world once again. In the past publishing on the Internet something nately called Planet X, or the twelfth Gfew years, the world has been called "Zeta Talk," which has easily Planet (a calamitous, meandering solar ending with alarming regularity, and the become the single most widely ignored system body first hallucinated by coming year promises to be no different. topic in any science-related newsgroup. Zecharia Sitchin), although it is actually We have survived the Y2K crisis, the (Fortunately it's all archived on a giant comet. This planet, or comet, is planetary "alignment" of May 2000, www.zetatalk.com). Soon Nancy was inhabited by two intelligent races: hominoids, and reptilians. "The giant hominoids on the Twelfth Planet to this Nancy's record as a is not a day dress in attire reminiscent of Roman good one. When the discovery of the soldiers," says Nancy. This is because the Romans actually copied the aliens' giant comet Hale-Bopp was announced attire. This "planet" supposedly is in a in 1995, Nancy proclaimed long, elliptical orbit around two bodies, one being the Sun and the other being that it didn't exist. some object we haven't yet discovered. Its orbital period is a leisurely 3,657 exotic calendars reaching the end of famous, or infamous, depending on years. When it arrives in the vicinity of their rope, etc. However, none of the your opinion of the messages from the Earth, it will cause a "pole shift." "Prior cosmic disasters we have narrowly Zetas. Since fools are ever eager to rush to the shift, the Earth slows in its rota­ escaped could possibly prepare us for the in where wise men fear to tread, Nancy tion, and actually stops," an idea that threat of a planet of enormous size has developed quite a following with her either Nancy or the Zetas evidently bor­ hurtling our way at breakneck speed, prolific Internet presence and her many rowed from Velikovsky. preparing to scramble up Earth, shift its media appearances (see www.prep2003. As far back as 1995, Nancy claimed poles, and wipe out an estimated 90 per­ com)—especially since Art Bell featured that "The Twelfth Planet is now visible cent of its population. Worst of all, our Nancy and her Zeta Talk on his wild- to the human eye, though only the edu­ astronomers don't know a thing about and-woolly all-night radio show. cated eye would see it. At the current this planet—we have to rely upon chan­ Nancy says that she became a "con- time the Twelfth Planet is approximately neled messages from the Zetas for what tactee" of the Zetas in 1993, when she magnitude 2.0 in brightness" (about the pitifully meager warning we have on this "recovered" the memory of an alien same as the familiar stars in the Big looming planetary disaster. encounter that had occurred when she Dipper). Nonetheless, the world's The Zetan representative on earth is was a young girl. The Zetas supposedly astronomers somehow failed to notice Nancy Lieder (she doesn't like to use her come from the Zeta Reticuli star system, this bright interloper, probably because widely believed by UFOIogists to be the "the Twelfth Planet, to you, is camou­ Robert Staffer's World Wide Web page for home system of the aliens that allegedly flaged against the night sky." UFOs and other skeptical subjects is at abducted Betty and Barney Hill in The Comet-Planet's close approach www. . com. 1961. The Zeta messages warn earth- to Earth is scheduled for about May 15,

16 November/December 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 2003, with the pole-shifting Doomsday discovery of the giant comet Hale-Bopp nally intended state of human beings." to occur a few days later. There is appar­ was announced in 1995, Nancy pro­ Next Jesus spoke to the people of ently some uncertainty in the calcula­ claimed that it didn't exist. The earth. He explained, "I came with the tion because as Planet X approaches us, announcement of that comet was, she mission of the Messiah in the New "the Repulsion Force clicks in at the said, part of a disinformation campaign Testament, but people at that time cruci­ edge of the Solar System." This, Nancy to distract people from Planet X and the fied me. That is why there remained a explains, is the force that keeps the outer coming doom. Although the bright task for God to fulfill, and the necessity planets from falling into the Sun. Our earthly physicists haven't yet learned 'The giant hominoids on the about the Repulsion Force. In case you're worried about what is Twelfth Planet to this day dress going to happen to the region in which in attire reminiscent you live, Nancy provides a great deal of detailed information specifying the of Roman soldiers," nature of the doom that awaits you. says Nancy. Most of Mexico will fare tolerably well, at least when considering the global destruction occurring in most other comet was seen by much of Earth's pop­ places. However, "California anticipates ulation, Nancy, like the proverbial being inundated, due to the very famous churchmen confronted by Galileo's tele­ Edgar Cayce predictions along those scope, refused to look because it could lines." Its residents might be well not and did not exist. While it would advised to head for Arizona, which "is seem that the very notion of this "Planet situated on old land, plates that have X" is self-debunking, anyone who still survived numerous pole shifts without isn't convinced can find more than fracturing." Along the east coast, "conti­ enough refutation on the Bad Astronomy Web site at www.badastron- nental rip" will occur along the entire omy.com/bad/misc/planetx/index.html. length of the Atlantic, resulting in huge One wonders what Nancy and her Zeta tidal waves. Residents of New York State friends will have to say for themselves will be okay, so long as they remain at least 100 miles inland. As for India, its next June? unfortunate inhabitants can expect to be « • « "forced under the Himalayan high­ When most organizations hold a sem­ lands." The new North Pole will end up inar, they typically choose a location in what is now the South Atlantic, just such as a major hotel or a university. off the coast of Brazil. But the Unification Church of the Supposedly Planet X is now visible to Reverend Sun Myung Moon has pio­ professional astronomers at observato­ neered the use of the most amazing ries, although a conspiracy is afoot and conference venue yet devised: the the U.S. Government is suppressing Spirit World. From February 3 to April Planet X sightings in every way it can. 11, 2001, Ms. Young Soon Kim, a She claims that the planet (or, some­ Unification Church leader in South times, comet) has been photographed Korea, held "Seminars in the Spirit many times. World with the Four Religious Certain astronomical photos on the Founders." Zeta Talk Web site are alleged to show Confucius was the first to speak. He Planet X. However, given the very lim­ explained that he has learned a great deal ited information that she provides, plus since he first arrived in heaven and began the absence of side-by-side identical having conversations with God. As a photos taken at different times, it is result, he has had to make some signifi­ impossible to determine if the little dot cant changes to his religious philosophy: being triumphantly pointed to is a "In order for us fallen people to be planet, a star, an asteroid, or a photo­ restored from the original sin, our lineage graphic defect. has to be changed. Reverend Moon is the Fortunately, Nancy's record as a instrument for this transition; through his prophet is not a good one. When the ministry we can be restored to the origi-

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER No-.mb.'/D.c.mb.' 2002 17 of a Second Coming.. .. Reverend Sun into the Spirit World a secoad rime to error of his ways, proclaimed, "Please Myung Moon is the returning Messiah conduct a "Seminar in the Spirit World receive die thought of Reverend Moon for whom you have been waiting and for 120 Christians Who Illuminated and study it deeply. If you do so, you will waiting. He inherited my mission at the History." Among those speaking were attend God more truly than the thinkers age of sixteen." Then it was Buddha's Jesus' twelve disciples, fifteen patriarchs of or politicians of the Free World." Mao turn. He, too, had found a need to die Old Testament, and numerous odier Tse Tung now has very different diings to revise his religious teachings since major religious leaders including St. Paul, say than what is in his Little Red Book: ascending to the spirit world, but he Martin Luther, John Wesley, Joseph "God exists and the spirit world clearly sought to allay the fears of his current Smith, and many others. All of them have exists. Reverend Moon, True Parents, supporters: "Dear Buddhists, I am not become followers of the Reverend Moon who illuminated the truth diat God is die saying that your way of life thus far has since arriving in heaven, and emphasized Parent of humankind, please save our been wrong. Like Jesus, in my time I die urgency of following his teachings. Communist people." also did my best to guide humankind in From April 18 to May 9, 2002, Ms. While some may dismiss channeled the right direction. However, with the Young Soon Kim went back to the Spirit transcripts on obscure Web sites passing of time, die tasks needed for the World yet once more, to conduct a (www.tparents.org) as insignificant and salvation of humankind have changed. "Seminar in die Spirit World for 120 perhaps unrepresentative of the teach­ ... In this age Reverend Sun Myung Communists" who during their lifetimes ings of the Unification Church, that Moon is the Buddha for whom you have had been leaders of diat atheistic and organization was so eager to promote been waiting." The last of the Big Four materialistic movement. Without excep­ the endorsements of Jesus, Martin to speak was Muhammad, who told his tion, all of them had discovered after Luther, Marx, and Lenin that it took out followers, "Now God's basic desires are death the error of their ways, and a full-page ad in the Los Angeles Times on to bring the truths and doctrines of all expressed full support not only for reli­ July 8 to brag about it. Most impressive religions together and unite them as gion in general, but also for the True of all was a concluding Letter from God one. When it is done, God can finally Parents (Mr. and Mrs. Moon) and their himself, endorsing the Moon mission: "I rest. After countless days of waiting, mission to unify the religions of the am the God of all people. You, the True God finally sent Reverend Sun Myung world. For example, Karl Marx said, "I, Parents, have now succeeded in every­ Moon for this purpose." Putting in Marx, have met God. I have found that thing and have raised everything to its cameo appearances toward the end of He is the Parent of humankind.... true level. So you are now the Savior, die seminar were Socrates and Saint Reverend Sun Myung Moon, who is on messiah and King of Kings of all of Augustine, both of whom emphasized the Earth, brought this fact to light." humanity!" Somehow this message from the importance of following the teach­ Marx' sidekick, Freidrich Engels, added, God neglected to chastise the Reverend ings of the Reverend Moon. "You people on the Earth! Please attend Moon and remind him that, in virtually From August 27 to November 12, God and receive Reverend Moon's guid­ every other religion, humility is consid­ 2001, Ms. Young Soon Kim went back ance." Lenin, equally regretful of die ered to be a virtue.

PSYCHIC PETS AND PET PSYCHICS Christopher, Milbourne. 1962. Panorama of MacDougall, Curtis D. 1983. and the Magic. New York: Dover, 8—37. Press. Buffalo. N.Y.: , 532. From page 15 . 1970. ESP. Seers & Psychics. New York: Nickell, Joe. 1989. The Magic Detectives. Buffalo. Thomas Y. Crowell Co., 39-54. N.Y.: Prometheus Books, 9-12. Cohen, Daniel. 1984. The Encyclopedia of . . 2000. photography: a candid shot. Of course, there is not the slightest bit New York: Dorset Press, 137-149. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 24:3 (May/June), 15-17. of evidence that the spirit was contacted Cooper, Paulette, and Paul Noble. 1996. 100 Top . 2001a. Real-life X-Files. Lexington. Ky.: or that, in fact, it existed anywhere other Psychics in America. New York: Pocket Books. University Press of Kentucky. than in the imagination of Christa Carl 97-113. . 2001b. John Edward: Hustling ihc Fitzpatrick. Sonya. 2002. The Pet Psychic. Animal bereaved. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 25:6 and, of course, the dog's grieving, guilt- Planet channel, March 7. (November/December), 19-22. ridden, and credulous owner. French, Christopher C. ct al. 1991. Belief in Ostrandcr. Sheila, and Lynn Schroedcr. 1971. Such seems invariably the problem astrology: a test of the Barnum effect. Psychic Discoveries Behind the Iron Curtain. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 15:2 (winter). 166-172. New York: Bantam. 134-145. with claims involving psychic pets and Guiley, Rosemary Ellen. 1991. Harpers Psychic Pets and Spirit Animals: True Stories from pet psychics. Based on anecdotal evi­ Encyclopedia of Mystical & Paranormal the Files of Fate Magazine. 19%. New York: dence—wonderful tales of psychic and Experience. New York: HarperCollins. 22-25. Gramercy Books. Sebeok, Thomas A 1986. Clever Hans redrvivus. mediumistic success—diey are not sup­ Hyman. Ray. 1977. Cold reading: how to convince strangers true you know all about them. SKEPTI­ SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 10:4 (summer). 314-318. ported by scientific investigation. CAL INQUIRER U2 (Spring/Summer), 18-37. Wiseman, Richard. Matthew Smith, and Julie Jay. Ricky. 1986. Learned Pigs & Fireproof Women. Milton. 1998. Can animals detect when their References London: Robert Hale. 7-27. owners are returning home? An experimental Baker, Robert A. 1990. They Call It . Leigh. Gerri. 1992. Appearance on The Jerry test of the 'psychic pet' phenomenon. British Buffalo: Prometheus Books. 179-182. Springer Show, March 16. journal of Psychology 89: 453-462.

18 November/December 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER NOTES ON A STRANGE WORLD MASSIMO POLIDORO

The Search for Margery

hile researching material the book was "superb" but wanted to conversation between two people who for my book Final Stance: "point out, though, that it was not ever could have been "very close" to those W The Story of the Strange proven that Mina provided 'sexual two giants. Friendship Between Houdini and Conan favors' to members of the stance circle. Massimo Polidoro: Anna, I must say Doyle (Prometheus Books, 2001) I Ken is careful to point this out himself. that I am an admirer of Margery and I made several attempts at locating some Bird [Malcolm Bird, secretary of the think that the idea of her faking the phenomena was probably more a mat­ Scientific American Commission] later of the relatives of the medium ter of a difficult relationship with her "Margery," whose role was so promi­ made that claim, but I would argue that husband than an attempt to deceive the nent when Houdini and Doyle were a man desperate to salvage his own rep- public. What do you think? friends and later enemies. Margery ( was her real name) was the wife of Dr. LeRoi I made several attempts at locating some of Goddard Crandon, a wealthy Boston physician, who, in 1924, entered the the relatives of the medium "Margery," whose contest announced by Scientific American role was so prominent when Houdini and according to which $5,000 would be paid to anyone able to demonstrate psy­ Conan Doyle were friends—and later enemies. chic powers under scientific controls. The only catch was that Houdini was a mem­ ber of the committee, and that proved to Anna Thurlow: Please, do not feel be enough to scare away most tricksters utation and is willing to do so by com­ any anxiety over offending me regard­ eager to win die prize by any means. menting on such personal matters is ing whether she was "authentic" or not—I do not believe in I knew that Margery had a son and perhaps not the most trustworthy source phenomena. I am, however, fasci­ that he was probably still alive, but of information." nated with the pageantry and ritual of though I tried many times to contact him I was quite excited to get a chance to it. I know that for whatever reason I was never able to get a reply. The dead­ speak to someone who had had she started it (and I agree with you, I line for the book finally came and I Margery as grandmother and I thought do not think it was with intent to deceive but rather for reasons more closed it without the information I it would be very interesting to hear the psychologically complex), it con­ wished to include. perspective of a member of the family quered her mentally in the end—after Then, in March of this year, I who was not as involved in the case as Dr. Crandon died (even though he received an e-mail from an Anna Dr. Crandon. To me it looked almost as was my great-grandfather, we've Thurlow, who introduced herself as if, eighty years later, the contemporary always called him "Dr. Crandon") she Margery's granddaughter. She was writ­ "representatives" of Margery and ing me because she had read a review I Houdini had a chance to meet and dis­ Massimo Polidoro is an investigator of the wrote for the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER on cuss what went on during those famous paranormal author, lecturer, and co- Ken Silverman's book on Houdini (SI seances in Boston. So, imagine you founder and head of CICAP, the Italian 21(3), May/June 1997). She thought could step back in time and listen to a skeptics group.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 2002 19 continued on her very dangerous game." His room at 10 judgment. But Mina did drink herself own, as if it was the only company Lime street was right next to the stance to death by her early fifties (although she had, which I find very sad. room, and he could hear everything. the toll of drink and depression, as I They locked him in every night (as gather, made her seem much, much MP: Did you have a chance when you well as the servants) to prove to the sit­ older). But yes, my grandfather was were a kid to know Mina personally? ters that the seance circle was con­ terribly ashamed of her, as I think AT: I never knew Mina, nor did my trolled. I think he was around twelve most children of alcoholics are, even mother, as Mina drank herself to years old. So I imagine, for him, how­ without having had the whole world death so early on. But my grandfather ever much a rationalist he was, it must know very intimate things about her. John Crandon (Mina's son and my have nonetheless been absolutely terri­ By the time she died, my grandfather mother's father) was greatly influ­ fying. Seeing him re-live that was chill­ was already married. enced and shaped by her. He was a ing enough for me to not ask again. MP: Could this Button you are refer­ very unhappy man and both obsessed My mother told me that the public ring to be WH. Button, the then- with and ashamed by her. She was outcry on this arrangement was such President of the American Society for rarely spoken of in the family but my that Mina had to send my grandfather Psychical Research? mother gathered many stories and away, which they did—to Andover (a passed them on to me. I've been wor­ boarding school). When 1 asked him AT: You are right! I was shocked to ried about the veracity of the stories, once about how it was done, he said, realize that he was the head of the but where I've been able to verify "mirrors." But he didn't explain more ASPR—my mother had thought he diem, they've turned out to be true. than that. was a lawyer. All of the papers I have More immediately, however, the psy­ from later in Mina's life were archived, MP: Did you have other chances to chological impact of my greatgrand- sorted, and stored by him—the talk about Mina with John? parent's dysfunctionality and the envelopes all have his name and conflict with Houdini was deeply im­ AT: I've asked my grandfather about address on them. I am now curious as printed on the family. Mina over my whole life, but he really to what date he starts the archiving as didn't like to talk about it. The conver­ opposed to Dr. Crandon. I never MP: Is John still living? sation I relayed to you took place in really thought about it, but Dr. Crandon's papers seem to peter out AT: Yes, my grandfather is still living 1997, I think, just before he really slipped mentally; he must have been in around 1926 (presumably around the although not mentally competent; time that Dr. Crandon no longer even before, however, he rejected any­ his early eighties, and I was in my late twenties. The question about the mir­ believed in Margery?) even though he one's attempt to contact the family— didn't die until 1938. I wonder if which is why you wouldn't have been rors was the same day—I asked him it he believed in it (no) how they did it Button "took up the cause" and per­ able to find any of us. My mother, on haps that is how Mina and he became the other hand, was fascinated by (mirrors) and how he felt about being in the room next door (wouldn't say). involved with each other. She moved Mina and was preparing to write a to New York to be with him. book about women, spirituality, and He was very rattled and the nurse told me that he had nightmares all that Coincidentally, she lived on W. 116th class in Boston, with Mina as the cen­ street, and of course Houdini had tral figure. My mom died of cancer in night. Sid Radner (of the Houdini seances) was very interested in talking lived on W. 113th street. My mother 1995, just before Ken's book came and I also lived on W 113th street for out—she would have been thrilled to with him, but after that, I really felt that he couldn't remember enough for almost fifteen years, only two blocks read it, as he uncovered so much away! more than we knew. I've been very it to be worth the emotional turmoil it grateful to him for answering so many obviously caused him. of the questions that my grandfather MP: Since you are talking about never would. There is only myself and MP: Dr. Crandon died in 1939 and houses: While on my search for mate­ my mother's brother. Mina in 1941, however we know that rial and information for my book I she went into depression and drank went to Boston and tried to locate the MP: It must not have been easy for a quite heavily. What were those two house where Mina lived and where kid like John, your grandfather, to live years alone like for her? the famous seances with Houdini and in a house were all those strange the Scientific American team took AT: After Dr. Crandon died Mina had things went on. What did he think place. However, due also to time con­ an affair with their lawyer, Mr. about his mother's fame? straints, I was not able to find it. Does Button, and I believe she moved in the house still exist, I wonder? AT: It made my grandfather very with him in New York City. However, angry to talk about Mina (die Rand my mother and grandmother (my AT: Yes, 10 Lime street is still there. I side of the family only knew her as grandmother was rather horrified by have written to the owners to ask if I Mina, people outside of the family or the whole thing and never really knew could meet them but they've never Houdini specialists always refer to her how to handle Mina) always hated responded. My mother was born there as Margery; my mother and I refer to him. I am not sure why but I think my and I'd like to see it for personal his­ her as both). I asked him several years grandfather felt Button stole her tory, but no luck. I am dying to find ago what he diought about the whole money or he otherwise took advantage out if they found any secret passages, thing, and he said that he knew when of her. Button certainly supported her etc. As an interesting note, the photo she started die seances that something continued "experiments" so I wouldn't of her most often reproduced (stand­ was not right with her, mentally. be surprised if he was hoping to recrc ing in a doorway) was actually of the However a few minutes later he turned ate some of the notoriety of before. building next door. 10 Lime doesn't to me and said in a way that made my However, I haven't found a thing have a recessed doorway. I understand hair stand on end: "They didn't know about him that confirms that he was a that the photo was taken by Houdini, what diey were playing with. It was a bad person, so I have to reserve my and I saw a note somewhere asking

20 November/December 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER him to keep that feet rather secret, for bly not a person it would be wise to suspect that in combination with too fear of their "reputations"—I presume get too intimately involved with. many sexual escapades with the female to keep it a secret that they actually got Would she even dare get involved staff, he was argumentative with his along long enough to take a picture! I with such a person, if her highest pri­ peers. Plus I think Ken Silverman may do suspect that they were quite similar ority was to keep Dr. Crandon happy? have mentioned that Dr. Crandon was in the aspect of having been hard Of course, relationships do not always not as wealthy as he appeared to be. working class and yet outsmarted a lot make sense, but Bird sets off alarm This also makes sense to me, as he had of very self-satisfied people. Plus they bells even for me, eighty years later. several previous wives and was likely to each had some aspect of themselves have some financial pressures on that that society used to dismiss them—he MP: As with many of those who have end, which may have complicated being Jewish and her being female. studied the Margery story and the things. There have been disappoint­ Neidicr of which were qualities held in Scientific American investigation, you ments for me in learning more about high value by many of the participants, don't seem to have a great opinion of my greatgrandfather; he was a racist from what I can tell.... Malcolm Bird. and a sexist. (My grandfather inherited

MP: Was Houdini and the Scientific American investigation ever talked about in your family? When the Boston Globe stated that Houdini AT: I didn't know anything about the Scientific American episode other than announced Margery to be a fraud, my grandfather it had been a scandal, until I read Ken's book. Houdini was a respected name went out and bought all of the newspapers in the household but his name also held a great aura of sadness and shame. so that she wouldn't read it. I remember my mother telling me that when the Boston Globe stated that Houdini announced her to be a fraud, my grandfather went out and bought AT: I think he was a rather duplicitous those traits. However the both of them all of the newspapers so that Mina person himself. He basically moved hid it fairly well under the veneer of wouldn't read it. While 1 agree widi into 10 Lime street, and I suspect may upperclass manners and propriety, but Houdini that one can only explain the have been given money by my great- when pushed or angered, you can see stances as a combination of theater grandparents (although I can't prove it, and it is ugly.) But there have also and audience participation, the seances that—there is just a reference to a been two things of which I am sur­ he was at were pretty simple. I would blank check to him from Mina, to prised to say I am rather proud: one, really like to know how they managed which he teases her: "what would it he was staunchly atheist and did not the more complicated seance events. I look like if certain people saw this?") let social mores pressure him into also don't feel that Houdini was quite and there may have been plenty of per­ believing certain things —I believe his up front himself—he seemed to be sonal reasons for them to all grow belief in spiritualism to be genuine, playing his own games. However, he quite tired of each other's company. 1 and to be based in a combination of was treated terribly by Dr. Crandon find, however, I am quite curious to hope and science, but not in religion. and some of the others and that pretty know what happened to him. He That must have made his disappoint­ much entitles Houdini to act however strikes mc as a rather sad person as ment later all that more devastating. he wanted, to my mind. well, not quite able to handle the The second thing I am proud of him demands of the situation he found for is mentioned in your last chapter. I don't know that he assisted women MP: You said that after 1926. Dr. himself in . .. although I suppose the situation got the better of most of the with abortions for a fact, but I had Crandon presumably no longer heard it before, and it makes sense to believed in Margery. What do you participants.... By the way. the pic­ ture in your book of Mina in the me, and I am proud to think that one think of him? Did he help her in doorway is the picture I was referring of my ancestors did something like some of her trickery or was he really a to earlier. I believe it was taken by that gave women more autonomy over complete believer? Houdini and she asked him not to themselves, particularly in a time when women had so few choices. Sexism I AT: I think Dr. Crandon must have reveal that fact (a collector at one of find not an absolute quality but exists been convinced of the experiments— the Houdini seances showed mc the by degrees, and although I think he I don't think anyone can write so con­ same picture and told me Houdini thought of women as less capable than sistently to intimate friends for so had taken it, and I have a copy of a let­ men, I think he also thought women many years and have it be a lie. 1 ter from Mina asking Houdini not tell should have some autonomy over their think that Conan Doyle (whose anyone he was the one who took pic­ bodies or minds. To his credit, he friendship was dearly valued by my tures of her). It is of her standing in warmly welcomed my grandmother greatgrandparents) and Dr. Crandon the doorway of 11 Lime, not 10 Lime. into the family—a doctor herself, and truly thought they were foraging at the only woman to graduate from the frontiers of science, as strange as McGill Medical School in 1939. that seems now. ... I take Bird's testi­ MP: On reading about the story from mony regarding a sexual relationship some of the original documents, what with a grain of salt. He strikes mc as a do you think now of Dr. Crandon's rather charming but unbalanced and role and character? MP: Thank you for sharing with our not entirely trustworthy person— readers your very interesting thoughts tragic, too—as he disappeared (from AT: I'm pretty sure I know what Dr. and comments on one of the greatest what I know) after all this ... proba­ Crandon's problems at the hospitals historical figures in the history of psy­ were—women. He was a philanderer. I chical research.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 2002 21 Politicizing the Virgin Mary: The Instance of the Madonna of Medjugorje

Apparently individual experiences of the paranormal can, on some occasions, be shown to arise largely out of the broadest social forces, including even those that result in cross-national warfare.

RAYMOND A. EVE

TT7"7e live in days of all too obvious tension and occa- \ ji I sional outright slaughter between specific V V Christian nations and certain Muslim ones. With this in mind, we can point to an instructive example of how a similar conflict that has occurred on a somewhat smaller geographical scale can be used to demonstrate that paranor­ mal beliefs sometimes arise from a symbolic conflict between differing religious and ethnic groups. We can further demon­ strate how such paranormal beliefs frequendy both derive from and add to tensions associated with outright warfare and attempts at ethnic cleansings. To substantiate these claims I examine the case of the widely claimed apparitional appearances of the Virgin Mary in the former Yugoslavia.

22 November/December 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Sources of Pseudoscientific Belief The literature on paranormal belief is dominated by the view that such beliefs typically arise for highly idiosyncratic reasons, or at least from mistaken or bizarre thought processes. For example, Singer and Benassi (1981) have sug­ gested that paranormal and pseudoscientific beliefs arise from common errors in human reasoning (such as those studied by learning psychologists examining errors of per­ ception that seem to have their origins hardwired into the human brain). Singer and Benassi further identify sources of pseudoscientific belief as arising from poor or erroneous sci­ ence education (see Eve and Dunn 1988; Gray 1987; etc.) or from erroneous or sensationalistic media coverage of sci­ ence (Harrold and Eve 1987). However, Singer and Benassi do, admittedly, suggest a fourth category: socio-cultural factors. It is this category that I wish to emphasize here. Pseudoscience arising out of socio- cultural forces is unique in that rather than representing bizarre or deviant thought processes, it is actually reflective of cognitive and heuristic conformity to the mode for one's reference groups. It seems likely that most research into sources of para­ normal beliefs have examined individuals or small groups (such as cults). I do not mean to suggest that there has not been a small proportion of studies that have examined the etiology of beliefs at a more "macro" level. For example, a number of stud­ ies have shown definitively that belief in creationism is signifi- candy correlated with factors such as denominational affilia­ tion, regionality within the U.S., gender, and other sociological factors. However, even these studies have for the most part been confined to examining major social trends within but a single country at a time.

Apparently individual experiences of the paranormal can, on at least some occasions, be shown to arise largely out of the broadest social forces, including even those that result in cross-national warfare. We are all children of our own times, and as such our conscious and rational mental processes tend to reflect the dominant cognitive and social paradigms of our times and our home nations. So too, even our appar­ not an exaggeration to state that tens of millions of the ently idiosyncratic hopes, fears, and subconscious compul­ Catholic faithful and other seekers have made Medjugorje a sions tend to have their roots in the overall social fabric of Catholic shrine that exists nearly on an equal footing with the everyday life. The phenomenon of the "Madonna of Vatican. The good news is that the Madonna's messages as Medjugorje" is a good example. received through the children almost always encourage peace Medjugorje is a village located in the former Yugoslavia. It and love in the world. The bad news is that a number of much first came to my attention in 1985 while I was standing in a darker and less noble currents circulate just under the surface. tube station in the Bloomsbury district of London looking at My purpose here is to examine some of these undercur­ a huge paper advertisement on the wall. The advertisement rents, and try to draw some overall conclusions for a skeptical asked the reader to "Dial Mary" and came complete with a analysis of the origins of paranormal belief systems. toll-based long distance number. Callers could receive the ben­ efit of daily communications as imparted by the Virgin Mary, The Historical Context of Medjugorje who apparently channeled her invocations through several The events of recent decades in Medjugorje both follow and children in Medjugorje. Since 1981, the six young visionaries lead in a tradition of similar appearances of the Virgin. In (Ivanka, Ivan, Jakov, Marija, Mirjana, and Vicka) had been Portugal in 1917 a series of apparitions by the Blessed Virgin experiencing nearly daily episodes of apparitions and commu­ occurred in the rural village of Fatima. Like the case of nication with "Our Lady." Medjugorje, the appearances were in a rural area and experi­ The overall result has been that since the 1980s, enced by children, and the initial appearances were to become Medjugorje has attracted pilgrims from all over the world. It is intensely politicized in the months that followed. An earlier

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 2002 23 brought to a head in the fall of 1914 when Pope Benedict XV pleaded with the leaders of Europe to stop the bloodshed. The Pope went so far as to issue a policy statement that the invo­ cation known as "Queen of Peace, pray for us" should be per­ manently included in the Church's litany of prayer to Mary. It was in the context of having frequently heard this invocation upon the occasions of their church attendance that the chil­ dren of Fatima had their first encounter with a vision of Mary. Mary thereafter appeared to the children on the thirteenth day of each month for six months. However, these apparitions had political implications: the mayor of Fatima, just before the scheduled August apparition, had the children arrested and tossed into jail, where they were interrogated and threatened with execution. One result of this precipitous action was described by numerous of the local believers as various solar This 1917 file photo shows the three Portuguese shepherd children Lucia Dos Santos (C) and her cousins Jacinta (L) and Francisco Marto. The Virgin Mary was abnormalities that occurred as an apparent sign of divine dis­ said to have appeared to the children in 1917 and given them three messages- one about the end of WW I, one other about Russia, and a third "secret" that pleasure (Pelletier 1983). Just as at Lourdes earlier, and other the Vatican never revealed. Francisco and Jacinta died in 1919 and 1920. and locations such as Medjugorje later, the sun was said to "dance" Lucia is a 93-year-old nun. Pope John Paul II beatified Jacinta and Francisco in May 2000 during his visit to Fatima. Agence France Presse. in the sky, and also to vary alarmingly in its hues. At one level the Fatima appearances obviously reinforced and possibly less well-known instance of the phenomenon had the threatened faith of the rural believers, helped along in no occurred in Lourdes, France. In 1858, a thirteen-year-old girl small part by the actions of the mayor whose tactics reified the named Bernadette Soubirous entered what is commonly old Marxist dictum that "external threat creates internal co­ described as a grotto in the nearby Massabielle rocks just out­ hesion." One of revelations of Mary at Fatima specifically side of Lourdes. Bernadette at first felt that she saw "a white- denounced Russia and predicted worldwide disaster unless all light" shining from a grotto, but upon closer inspection she people turned to the Catholic faith (Haffert 1950). said that she found the light to be presented to her in the form of the Virgin. Thereafter the appearances were to become The Events in Medjugorje known as the Miracle of Lourdes, the Apparition, and to be Turning our attention back to the more recent phenomenon immortalized in the classic movie Song of Bernadette. The of Medjugorje, the visions there also took place in a specific visions at Lourdes carried substantial political overtones. A historical context. The occupation of the nation by Nazi good analysis of the political aspects of the apparitions has Germany in 1941 established a Croatian (i.e., largely Roman been presented by Harris (1999). Harris suggests that the true Catholic) fascist state that was strongly resisted by several subtext of Lourdes is "a story about France, about the struggles groups. Especially suffering at the hands of the fascist regime of Catholics in the aftermath of revolutionary turmoil, the were their Serbian (primarily Eastern Orthodox) neighbors. capacity of the Second Empire to adjust to, and even profit This oppression was in retaliation for 400 years of Turkish rule from, religious movements, and the inability of the Third during which the Roman Catholics felt they had suffered a Republic to suppress diem." As at Medjugorje, the appear­ heavy hand upon them. In any event, hundreds had died in ances of the Virgin were frequently accompanied by claims of pogroms of the period. miraculous healings (Boissarie 1933; West 1957). Eventually the dissident group headed by Marshal Tito As I mentioned, similar appearances of the Virgin took took full control after the German expulsion of 1945 and place in Fatima, Portugal, in 1917. Portugal was on the verge established a communist government. Even diough Tito broke of totalitarianism after the revolution there in 1910. One with Stalin and the Cominform in 1948 to develop his own result of the revolution had been the decree of a sharp separa­ brand of communism, Yugoslavia remained a communist tion of church and state. While the intelligentsia and political regime, and religion was suppressed as a result. Religion, for center ridiculed and suppressed religion, strong, but threat­ example, had been entirely banned from the school classroom. ened, religious faith persisted in the peasants of the rural coun­ In June of 1981 Ivanka Ivankovic, a fifteen-year-old schoolgirl, tryside. It is within this context that over a six-month period a was the first to experience an apparition of the Virgin Mary. (I series of apparitions by the Blessed Virgin occurred to three note that Ivanka's mother had just died and Ivanka was to small children from die rural village of Fatima. The visions had immediately refer to the Virgin as "Our Mother.") The appari­ begun in May of 1917, and throughout die early years of tion of the Virgin immediately gave Ivanka various messages of World War I the children were later to claim that they been hope and peace to convey to die villagers (as she would almost repeatedly visited by a male "Angel of Peace." Matters were daily do thereafter; why the Virgin chose not to speak direcdy with die villagers is unclear). The other two schoolgirls who Raymond A. Eve is professor of sociology at the University of Texas were with her on the occasion of the first appearance later said at Arlington. that diey too had seen die Virgin. Within days, hundreds of

24 November/December 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER visitors began to arrive in the village to hear the messages and hopeful of seeing the apparition themselves. The in Medjugorje, while pleasing to the local Catholic peasants, set off dire concern among the party func­ tionaries in die urban centers. Far from viewing the claimed appearances as fortuitous, die party leaders clearly feared that the apparitions might provide the focal point for a revitalization movement among the Catholics of die nation. The term revi­ talization movement is commonplace in modern anthropology. It refers to the largely spontaneous uprising of members of a for­ merly dominant (but then subordinated) group who attempt through militant action to recapture their former dominance, including the cultural and religious symbolism they favor. However, the uprising takes a singularly peculiar form. A revi­ talization movement typically begins in a manner that appears Vicka Ivankovic. who claims she has been meeting with the Virgin Man/ every to be no more than a rebinh of interest in spiritual life among day for the past 21 years, and her groom Mario Mijatovic (L). are cheered by the crowds after their wedding in the Bosnian village of Medjugorje 26 January. die oppressed. However, die apparently merely religious phe­ 2002. AFP Photo Tom Dubravec. nomenon in some cases provides an organizational structure for the discontented to quickly mobilize a political movement. those present on these occasions saw the transmutation of the One example is the slave revolts in die Caribbean under colo­ cross or the dancing of the sun. nialism. They initially appeared as an apparently apolitical Things also began to take a somewhat ugly turn within the revival of interest among the slaves in native African religions religious community. There had been for a hundred years a but were often followed by bloody slave uprisings. (So too, in competitive relationship between the lay clergy and the some ways, can one conceptualize creationism within die U.S. Franciscan priests of die area. The lay clergy, also called diocesan as a revitalization movement—albeit a less bloody one. Cre­ priests, report directly to their bishop. They are trained in sem­ ationism was the belief system of the dominant class a century inaries diat are not associated with a particular order. Priests in ago in America. Little wonder that rural, older Protestants resent the orders, e.g., Jesuits, Franciscans, Dominicans, Maryknoll, the politics and values of modern cosmopolitanism and mulri- and so on, are always subject to the authority of the local bishop, culturalism. It is possible to see the creationism movement as but their main allegiance is to their order and its mission. less about the age of die Earth than as a revitalization movement The lay clergy had for some time accused the Franciscan intended to restore a formerly dominant worldview and lifestyle Brotherhood of being arrogant and manipulative. Now the lay to its previous position of cultural and political dominance.) clergymen began to accuse the Franciscans of having know­ In any event, the Communist government of the former ingly appropriated the appearances of the Virgin to legitimate Yugoslavia greatly feared that the alleged appearances of the their order at the expense of the influence of the lay clergy. Virgin Mary might be a thinly disguised device by which a Catholic Nationalist revitalization movement might attempt Conclusion to reassert its claim to the nation. As I noted at the outset paranormal beliefs often can be gen­ On die eighth day of the children's visions, die police erated by small group dynamics. Markovsky and Thye (2000), attempted to break up the crowd and take the visionary chil­ for example, have recently documented this dynamic in some dren in custody. A Franciscan priest, upon seeing this, took the convincing laboratory studies. However, it is clear that it is also children to sanctuary in his local church. The priest later said possible for many paranormal beliefs to find dieir most pri­ that a divine voice had told him to protect die children. Some mary initiation within die most macro-level of socio-cultural more cynical observers suggested it was the first step in the forces. I acknowledge that the children's initial encounters appropriation of the miracle by the organized Church. with the Virgin may well have been caused by personal factors. Apparently the Virgin was prepared to accommodate the new For example, Ivanka, who was the first to perceive a visitation, indoor arrangements, and thereafter began to appear to the had just lost her natural modicr. The perception of appari- children daily inside the church. Apparently, also, the Virgin '.iun.il experiences spread rapidly among her intimate peer was becoming increasingly interested in politics. The children group. Markovsky and Thye's work may well help us to under­ were receiving ten messages each per day now, and many of stand this spread of belief. The region's tension and anxiety these consisted of statements such as, "The Russians will likely exacerbated this contagion process and the need to become Christians" and "The West has lost its faith." believe among the youthful protagonists. The seeds of hatred Now the miracles came fast and frequent. Accounts of and ethnic-religious tensions must have been easy to feel. The miraculous healings began to occur with frequency (for exam­ breakup of the former Yugoslavia was imminent, and with that ples, see Nickell 1998). A cross on a nearby hill was said to breakup Medjugorje would soon find itself located in Bosnia, sometimes turn into "a pillar of light," and as at Fatima, die widi all that implies. Such tensions that would lead to the hor­ sun was said to "dance" in the sky—aldiough only some of rors of the 1990s in Bosnia must have been easy for children

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 2002 25 to intuit but not to understand. Little wonder that a nurtur­ tially or entirely in tensions tiiat arise out of the conflict ing maternal figure offering a message of peace and love would between the world's two most enthusiastically proselytizing reli­ be of substantial comfort to the young people of the village. gions. It's not just jetliners and anthrax powder that are capable Ivanka herself said on film in the 1980s, "We have so much of wreaking havoc; we have seen here that paranormal beliefs anxiety within ourselves—Our Lady has given us peace, espe­ can sometimes carry a serious payload of their own. cially the young people." She goes on to say that the appear­ ances and pilgrimages (which brought great prosperity to the Note formerly poverty-stricken village) have ".. . given a sense of I'd like to mention a personal experience of my own arising out of the pride to a people whose lives have been mostly struggle." study of Medjugorje. I was asked by a large newspaper a few years ago for my opinion of why millions were traveling to Medjugorje. I spent nearly an On another level it is quite likely that the initial experiences hour on the phone with the reporter explaining the political and historical of die young visionaries are partly due to the personal situation contexts that undoubtedly played a huge role in the popularity and mean- ingfulncss assigned by various groups and individuals to the apparitions. of the young teens. In all the European cases of appearances of When the article appeared in print there was not a single word about the eth­ the Virgin cited here, those who are the central initial wit­ nic-nationalistic implications of the appearances, nor was their any mention nesses are children or young teenagets; recall that in many his­ of how the event symbolized internecine struggles within the Catholic hier­ archy itself. When I phoned the reporter and asked why all this had been torical witch trials the original witnesses were of the same omitted. I was told because it was too abstract and young age. Some observers have sug­ therefore would have gotten in the way of a good "story." The lessons to be learned in how the press gested that in the case of the witch trials covers paranormal claims are obvious. the experience of being so important a witness must have been very satisfying to References and Readings of young members of society who ordinar­ Interest ily lack any real power or influence over Alonso, Joaquin Maria. 1979. The Start of Fatima Fact the lives of the adults around them. and legend Cambridge, Mass.: Ravengate Press. Very quickly the personal experiences Boissarie, Prosper Gustave. 1933. Healing at of the young people were appropriated Lourdes. Baltimore. Md.: The John Murphy Company. by adults and authorities for their own Carter, Edward. 1994. The Spirituality of Fat­ purposes and their own needs. Clearly ima and Medjugorje. Milford, Ohio: Faith Publishers. many Croatians felt it good to promote Cranston. Ruth. Bureau nn.-du.il (Lourdes, France). the legitimacy of the miracles in 1988. The Miracle of Lourdes. New York: Image Medjugorje for purposes intended to put Books. Eve, Raymond A., and Dana Dunn. 1988. "Psychic the Serbs and Muslims of the region at a powers, astrology, and creationism in the class­ disadvantage, as well as offering a poten­ room? Evidence of pseudoscientific beliefs among U.S. secondary school biology and life tial rallying point for opposition to a sec­ science teachers." Paper presented at the annual ular central government. There is in one meeting of the American Sociological sense a most tragic irony in our observa­ Association. Fulda. Edeltraud. 1961. And I Shall Be Heath: The tions. Most witnesses felt, and even now Autobiography of a Woman Miraculously Cured continue to feel, that the Virgin's appear­ at Lourdes. N.Y.: Simon and Schuster. ances heralded an improved chance for Gray, Thomas. 1987. Educational experience and belief in the paranormal. In Cult Archaeology peace and human kindness in the world. and Creationism. edited by E Harrold and R. However, from another perspective it is The Song Of Bernadette tells the story of a nine­ Eve. Iowa City: University of Iowa Press. teenth century French peasant girl, Bernadette Haffert. John M. 1950. Russia Will Be Cammed possible to see claims associated with the Soubirous. While gathering firewood she sees a appearances as symbolic weapons of mass vision of the Virgin Mary in a grotto and through Washington, N.J.: AMI International Press. her unshakable faith and determination, and with Harris, Ruth. 1999. Lourdes Body and Spirit in the destruction. In other words, the appear­ help of a spring with healing powers, convinces the Secular Age. N.Y.: Viking. ances may also have had the effect of church and the rest of France of her vision and thus establishes Lourdes as a religious shrine. Harrold. Francis B.. and Raymond A. Eve. 1987. both consciously and subconsciously Patterns of creationist belief among college stu­ heightening tensions in the region, tensions that would even­ dents. In Cult Archaeology and Creationism: Understanding Pseudoscientific Beliefs About the Past, edited by F. Harrold and R. Eve. Iowa City: tually lead to deaths of thousands. If this is indeed even in part University of Iowa Press. what actually happened in the region we can only wonder at Lasserre, Henri. 1980. Les Apparitions de la Tres-Sainte Vierge Marie A la Grotte de Lourdes et le Jaillissement de la Source Miraculeuse. Trois-Riviercs the terrible irony and grieve at the terrible results. IQu&ec): P.V. Ayonc. On a final note, a major implication of our case study here Markovsky. Barry, and Shane Thye. 2001. Social influences on paranormal of a small town in the Balkans is diat in some ways the politi­ beliefs. Sociological Perspectives 44(1): 21-44. cal and ethnic tensions seen there in the 1980s may have moved Marnham, Patrick. 1980. Lourdes: A Modem Pilgrimage. London: Heinemann. Nickell. Joe. 1998. Looking for a Miracle: Weeping Icons. Relics. Stigmata. beyond the Balkans. The phenomena of Medjugorje was fed to Visions, and Healing Cures. Amherst. N.Y.: Prometheus Books. a large degree by tensions between Christians and Muslims. It Pelletier, Joseph Albert. 1983. The Sun Danced at Fatima. Garden City, N.Y.: is all too obvious that since September 11, 2001, we might now Image Books. Singer. Barry, and Victor A. Benassi. 1981. beliefs. American Scientist expect a rash of other pseudoscience beliefs diat can be used as 69:49-55. symbolic weapons—weapons of belief that have their roots par­ West. D.J. 1957. Eleven Lourdes Miracles. London: Duckworth.

26 November/December 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Hypothesis Testing and the Nature of Skeptical Investigations

Testing hypotheses is the fundamental activity of scientists and skeptics. Now, a debate within the scientific community may be about to radically change the way we think about and conduct tests in the sciences.

MASSIMO PIGLIUCCI

"The test of statistical significance in research may be taken as an instance of a kind of essential mindlessness in the conduct of research." (Bakan 1966) "Statistical significance is quite different from scientific significance." (Cox 1977)

n 1987 a study by Schmidt, Jahn, and Radin proved that it is possible for the human mind to act on matter at Ia distance. More specifically, the researchers concluded that their data were consistent with the idea that a per­ son could deviate—by acting at a distance—a significant number of particles arriving at a "quantum gate" and that the of this happening by chance was about p=0.0003. Before anybody rushes to his or her word

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 2002 27 processors and starts typing letters of outrage to the SKEPTICAL lows a particular distribution (say, a bell curve), then one can INQUIRER, let me qualify the above statement. What I should calculate a simple statistic (known as a p-value) that tells us what have said is diat we should accept the above-mentioned con­ is the probability that a score like die one observed or more clusion //we apply to that data set the standard statistical extreme (i.e., more favorable to the hypothesis) would be observed in an infinite run of the experi­ There is a slow revolution afoot in science ment. If diat probability is lower tfian a pre­ set threshold (usually 0.05, i.e., 5%), then that might ultimately radically alter the way we conclude that the hypothesis of a chance scientists and skeptics think about the world result has to be rejected and its complement (telepadiy) accepted. and conduct their all-important business of The Problem with Null Hypotheses testing claims of the normal and paranormal. There are two fundamental problems with the above scenario, one concerning the idea methods of hypothesis testing that scientists and skeptics learn of a null hypothesis, the other regarding the calculation of p-val- from Statistics 101. Instead, if we conduct a much more sen­ ues. Let's start with the first one. In reality, we are not interested sible statistical analysis (known as the Bayesian approach, for in rejecting the null hypothesis at all. Statistically, the null is the curious) we would conclude that the hypothesis that the interpreted as the situation in which the outcome of the experi­ results were due to chance was many more times (53,263,000 ment is exacdy the one expected when chance only is acting (in times to be exact) more probable than the hypothesis that rJiey our case, exactly one-fifth positives). But scientifically, we are really had witnessed an example of psychokinesis. interested in what one could think of as an "extended" null This is important because there is a slow revolution afoot in hypothesis (figure 1). We wish to know if the actual outcome is science (it has been going on for several decades) that might far enough from the one predicted by chance to convince us that ultimately radically alter die way scientists and skeptics diink something is really going on. about the world and conduct their all-important business of testing claims of the normal and paranormal. In order to understand this change let us start with a brief summary of exact null Statistics 101 and its relevance to skeptical research. hypothesis

Null Hypotheses and P-Values "negative" telepathy - telepathy • According to the standard method of , an V investigator will formulate a research question in terms of a "null" (or default) hypothesis and an alternative outcome. For example: in an experiment on telepadiy, one wishes to test if in 1 25/25 fact the subject has the ability to read anodier person's mind. 0/25 5/25 The null hypothesis is that he doesn't, the alternative hypothesis approximate is that he does. The investigator dien sets up an experiment in area of chance which, say, twenty-five cards widi five different symbols are pre­ hypothesis sented to a person who acts as "transmitter" of telepathic infor­ mation. The "receiver" has to guess which symbol comes up Figure 1. The structure of hypothesis testing in an hypothetical experi­ ment on telepathy carried out with twenty-five cards and five symbols. every time. Since we know diat there is a certain probability What one is really interested in is not the rejection of the exact null (namely, one out of five) to guess the right card by chance (i.e., hypothesis (which is what standard statistical tests do), but in seeing if the widiout any telepathic ability), the expectation for the null outcome of the experiment is far enough from that point to seriously raise the possibility of a systematic effect (perhaps due to real telepathy). hypothesis is that, on average (i.e., over many trials), the allegedly telepathic subject will score only one-fifth of the times. This is an important difference because in any real experi­ Any significant deviation from that value (in the excess direc­ ment there will always be some small but systematic deviation tion) will lead to the rejection of the null hypothesis and to the from the exact null. Some factor that the experimenter has not acceptance of its alternative (i.e., the subject really is telepathic). taken into account (other than chance) will likely cause small One of die key words just mentioned is that die deviation deviations from the expected result, especially if for some reason has to be significant, but according to what criterion? Standard it is not possible to conduct a completely randomized and dou­ statistical theory tells us that if the distribution of the scores fol- ble-blind experiment. For example, cards may not have been shuffled well enough, or—if the input is generated by a com­ Massimo Pigliucci is associate professor of ecology and evolution­ puter—the random numbers used to produce the cards to pre­ ary biology at the University of Tennessee and author o/Denying sent to the subject may not actually have been truly random, Evolution: Creationism, Scientism, and the Nature of Science. and so on. What we really want to know, in other words, is if His essays can be found at www.rationallyspeaking.org. die actual result is far enough from the range of outcomes

28 November/December 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER expected by chance to raise the possibility of a telepathic phe­ given a particular hypothesis (the null). What we wish to know nomenon. are the likelihoods of different hypotheses given the observed Furthermore, it should be clear that the two hypotheses we data, that is, the exact opposite of the normal approach. are considering (the null and the alternative) arc actually not In order to get what we really want, then, we need to start the only two interesting scientific possibilities. While it is true by explicitly considering several (not just one or two) hypothe­ that either the outcome of the experiment is close to one-fifth ses and find ways to assess their relative "fitness" when com­ or it isn't (factual result), the possible interpretations (scientific pared to the data. In the case of the psychokinesis experiment, result) of either outcome may be varied. Consider some of the possibilities include: there really was a mind-over-matter phe­ alternatives: there could be telepathy, but the effect is too weak nomenon; the results were due to chance; there was cheating to detect with the small number of runs typically carried out on the part of the subject; there was a small but systematic in these experiments (i.e., failing to reject the null hypothesis defect in the experimental apparatus that generated the parti­ is not the same thing as accepting it!); or, a large result on the cle stream; there was an error in the method of counting par­ right side of figure I could be explained by the fact that— ticles; or none of the above (the latter is a catch-all category despite the experimenters' precautions—the subject cheated that is always necessary in science—sometimes an experiment (so rejection of the null hypothesis does not automatically is simply inconclusive). entail the acceptance of its complement). And so on. One Our task then is to find ways to quantify the likelihood of could conceive of a series of different hypotheses competing these different hypotheses and decide which one(s) appear more for the most sensible explanation of the data at hand. probable given the available information. If more than one (or none) seem to win the game after this round, we obviously need The Problem with P-Values to generate more data that can discriminate among the remain­ The second problem with the standard statistical approach to ing competitors (or go back to the drawing board and propose scientific inference is the meaning of p-values. As I said earlier, new alternatives). And so on. The game of science continues. they are an indication of the probability (given certain assumptions) of obtaining the same result or a more extreme What to Do?: The Practice one in an infinite repetition of runs. But surely this is not what In practice, comparing the fitness of different hypotheses is we want to know. We wish to know if the observed outcome of one particular experiment \s far enough from the null zone to raise the possibility of telepathy. This is not the same as asking Why Intelligent Design Is Not Science what is the probability of getting a result equal to the null expectation or more extreme. Another consequence of the view of hypothesis testing Moreover, what does it mean to say that the p-value gives presented in this article is that the so-called "Intelligent Design" (ID) theory is not science, but rather an argument us a probability valid over an infinite (or sufficiently long) from ignorance. William Dembski, one of the leading pro­ series of runs? This raises serious philosophical as well as prac­ ponents of ID, has claimed that what he calls the "design tical problems: we cannot repeat an experiment but a small inference" can be made after one successively eliminates number of times (sometimes only once), let alone pretend to simpler hypotheses. His "explanatory filter" starts out by considering the hypothesis that, say, a complex biological know what would happen with an infinite series. structure is the result of a simple physical law (such as the Finally, as I said earlier, if there is any systematic effect that law of planetary motion). If not, it asks if it could have we did not explicitly consider, no matter how small, this will been assembled by chance (which can yield more compli­ result in a deviation from the strict null hypothesis. In that cated patterns than regular laws). If the answer is again no, Dembski concludes that one is justified in inferring the case, p-values will become smaller and smaller as a function of action of a designer (of unknown origin and characteris­ the sample size (the number of observations), so that for a tics, of course). large enough sample, anything will become statistically signif­ Besides the fact that the explanatory filter does not icant. This is exacdy what happened with the psychokinesis consider several other possibilities (e.g., chaotic phenom­ experiment mentioned at the beginning: with 104,900,000 ena, emergent properties due to nonlinear interactions, observations (one per particle), any slight asymmetry in the etc.), it should be clear that the filter itself suffers from experimental conditions (for example in the building of die the same problem of the standard approach in statistics: it simply does not reflect the way science works. The design apparatus to count the particles) will yield false positives. hypothesis is assumed to win by elimination, just like the opposition between null and alternative hypotheses. But What to Do?: The Theory we have seen that in reality scientists consider several Given all these problems, what is an honest skeptic (or scientist) alternative hypotheses simultaneously (not in sequence) and weigh their positive merits against each other. to do? What many statisticians and scientists have suggested for Nobody has the luxury of winning by default. decades: Throw away the conceptual framework of standard sta­ What, then, if anything, does ID represent? It is equiv­ tistics and use one of several alternative ways of thinking. alent to our "catch-all" category of "none of the above." The first thing to realize is that philosophically speaking we That is, ID is an unnecessarily fancy way of saying "I don't arc simply not interested in what standard statistics tells us: wc know." do not want to know the probability of the observed data

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 2002 29 8 If results fall here, telepathy becomes a serious candidate 7 Hypothesis J Results in this area are highly compatible h with random fluctuations * 4 i Exact null Prediction ^^H hypothesis I' •i * f i" A J Focal Hypothesis ' Inorrect Correct If results fill here, the possibility of 'negative* telepathy should be entertained Falsified Go to another ^^V round ^^r t t ^ t t

2 3 4 Prediction Experiment's run

Data test the whole network

Figure 2. Hypothetical results (obtained by computer simulation) of five runs of an experiment on telepathy showing how a graphical analysis of means and standard errors (vertical bars) allows the experimenter to reach Figure 3. Two models of hypothesis testing: on the left. Popper's "naive" conclusions about alternative hypotheses. Notice that one of the five runs falsificationism, where an hypothesis makes falsifiable predictions that (n. 3) yielded results that are significantly different from the exact null are directly tested by data; on the right, a complex web of knowledge in according to the standard statistical framework. Yet there is no telepathy which assumptions, hypotheses, and reliability of measurements are going on between my computer and me, you can be assured of that. simultaneously tested during an ongoing process of research.

actually not that difficult, although I cannot get into the tech­ nical details here (but see some of the references at the end if you On wish to try). Mosdy, there are two things to do: visualize the data in informative ways, and calculate simple statistics (called likeli­ Skeptics are often fond of invoking the concept of fal- hood ratios) that quantify the probability of a given hypothesis siflability, introduced by philosopher Karl Popper, to to be a better match for the data than another one(s). (A more get rid of pseudoscientific beliefs. The idea is that if a complex approach is to use a full-fledged Bayesian framework, theory or claim cannot possibly be refuted by any empirical evidence, it does not advance our knowl­ but that is beyond the scope of this article; again, see references.) edge of the world (though that doesn't necessarily An example of visualization of data is shown in figure 2. mean that it is false). For example, claiming that an These are hypothetical data from a telepathic experiment with alleged paranormal phenomenon does not occur our familiar set of twenty-five cards with five symbols (the data under controlled conditions because the very presence were obtained by computer simulation). It is clear from the of a skeptic neutralizes it via some sort of negative vibration makes the claim itself unfalsifiable: no piece plot of means and their standard errors that the most likely of of empirical evidence could possibly show it false (fig­ three hypotheses being considered is in fact that the results are ure 3, right). due to random fluctuations (indeed they were, since that's how While it is true that an unfalsifiable statement is of I generated them in the computer!). Had we seen one or more little use, one needs to be careful in light of our discus­ of the runs with a mean in the "possible telepathy" zone (and sion of hypothesis testing in science. As I mention in this a standard error that clearly put that mean away from the article, scientists do not reject a hypothesis just because it has failed one (or even a few) tests. The reason for this boundary widi the chance events), we would not necessarily is that there may be alternative explanations for the have concluded in favor of telepathy: there are still a series of failure, such as a faulty apparatus, or the simultaneous alternative hypotheses (such as cheating, or a defect in the action of other factors not explicitly considered in the measurement apparatus or—in the case of my simulation— experimental design. that the computer did not truly generate random numbers We can therefore think of science as testing not just with a mean of five) that would need to be considered before a specific hypothesis at a time, but also the entire web of assumptions, corollaries, and additional hypotheses conferring a high likelihood to the telepathy hypothesis. that are connected to the one that is the focus of our A common way to quantify likelihoods of different investigation (figure 3, right). Only if the test fails and hypotheses given the data is to calculate what is appropriately we can reasonably exclude that other factors were at called a series of likelihood ratios comparing all pairs of play, can we then say that the hypothesis has not with­ hypotheses. A likelihood ratio is simple to obtain (you only stood the test of the data. However, since there is an infinity of factors that could possibly be involved in any need a pocket calculator) once one has carried out standard particular investigation, our conclusions (positive or statistical analyses such as t-tests, analyses of variance, or negative) will only be probabilistic. Strictly speaking, regression analyses. For die really curious (and somewhat we can never reject a hypothesis (pace Popper), only determine that its likelihood of being true has become HYPOTHESIS TESTING AND THE NATURE OF vanishingly small. SKEPTICAL INVESTIGATIONS Continued on page 48

30 November/December 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER A Presentation Without Arguments: Dembski Disappoints

William Dembski is a prominent advocate for Intelligent Design (ID). In his presentation to the Fourth World Skeptics Conference in Burbank, California, he avoided discussing the substance of the controversy, thus laying bare the futility of ID wherein specious rationalization substitutes for evidence. MARK PERAKH

ne prominent feature of the Fourth World Skeptics Conference in Burbank, California, in June was the Oinvited appearance of two prominent proponents of Intelligent Design (ID), William Dembski and Paul Nelson, to give talks and to defend their views in an open dispute with two opponents of the anti-evolution move­ ment, Wesley Elsberry and Kenneth Miller. This not-quite-common feature was despite the fact that the conference, organized by the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal (CSICOP), was designed as a meeting of skeptics, whose participants are squarely on the side of genuine science and

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 2002 31 are opponents of all disguised incarnations of creationism. is a "theistic evolutionist." I cannot remember a single conference of creationists Hence, both Dembski and Nelson were given a chance to wherein the opponents of creationism were invited to give argue in favor of their position using arguments of substance, talks in open discussion. based on facts rather than on ideology, in a dispute with oppo­ The SKEPTICAL INQUIRER reported on this session in its nents who had no reason to assault Dembski's and Nelson's subsequent Conference Report (September/October 2002, pp. religious beliefs. In this brief article I will discuss only the pre­ 8-12), but here I comment more fully on and critique the pre­ sentation by Dembski. sentation by Dembski. The text of Dembski's presentation The text of Dembski's presentation is notable (Dembski 2002a) is available on the by the almost complete absence of arguments Internet. This text is notable by the almost complete absence of arguments relevant to relevant to the gist of the dispute between ID the gist of the dispute between ID advo­ advocates, like himself, and the opponents cates, like himself, and the opponents of that theory. Indeed, the only instance of of that theory. Dembski's touching on the substance of the dispute seems to be a paragraph where Dembski mentions his term specified complexity and unequiv­ ocally defines it as a synonym for "specified improbability." Of course, there is nothing new in that statement. Dembski has expressed his interpretation of complexity as "disguised improbability" in various forms in many of his articles and books (Dembski 1998 and 2002b). This interpretation has been criticized more than once as contrary to logic and to the accepted mathematical notion of complexity (Wein 2002, Perakh 2001 and 2002, and many others). Continuing in the same vein, Dembski repeats his often-stated thesis diat what he calls "specified complexity" is a necessary indicator of design. The of that statement has been demonstrated more than once (for example, Edis 2001, Wilkins and Elsberry 2001, Perakh 2001 and 2002, Wein 2001 and 2002, Fitelson et al. 1999, Pennock 2000, Elsberry 2002, and others). Indeed, consider an example discussed several times before (Perakh 2001): Imagine a pile of pebbles found on a river William Dembski shore. Usually each of them has an irregular shape, its color varying over its surface, and often its density also varying over The proponents of creationism sometimes accuse their its volume. There are no two pebbles which are identical in detractors of being doctrinaire adherents of antireligious bias shape, color, and density distribution. I guess even Dembski whose motivation is not pursuing the truth but assaulting reli­ would not argue that the irregular shape, color, and density gious faith. AlrJiough this may be not the most important distribution of a particular pebble resulted from intelligent point, still it seems worth mentioning that both Elsberry and design, regardless of how complex these shapes and distribu­ Miller have asserted that they are not atheists. Professor of tions may happen to be. Each pebble formed by chance. Now, biology Miller is a faithful Catholic, and Elsberry, while vigor­ what if among the pebbles we find one that has a perfecdy ously defending the theory of evolution, has also said that he spherical shape, with an ideally uniform distribution of color and density? Not too many people would deny diat diis piece Mark Perakh is professor of physics, emeritus at California State in all likelihood is a product of design. However, it is much University Fullerton. He has authored nearly 300 papers in vari­ simpler than any other pebble, if, of course, complexity is ous fields of physics and electrochemistry, as well as several books; defined in a logically consistent manner rather than in he holds a number of patents and is a recipient of several prizes Dembski's idiosyncratic way. A logically consistent definition and awards for his research, including one from the Royal Society of complexity is given, for example, in die algorithmic dieory of London for the discovery and study of the photodeposition of of -probability-complexity (and is often referred to semiconductors. His latest book, devoted to the dispute between the as Kolmogorov complexity). The Kolmogorov complexity of a genuine science and fallacious theories like Intelligent Design, perfecdy spherical piece of stone is much lower than it is for Irreducible Complexity and the like, has been accepted for publi­ any odier pebble having irregular shape and non-uniform dis­ cation by Prometheus Books. tribution of density and color. Indeed, to describe die perfecdy

32 November/December 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER spherical piece one needs a very simple program (or algo­ show that certain ideas or theories indeed belong in real sci­ rithm), actually limited to just one number for the sphere's ence rather than crank science, one has to subject those ideas diameter, one number for density, and a brief indication of to merciless tests, wherein evidence supporting these ideas can color. For a piece of irregular shape, die program necessarily be reproduced and independently verified. Dembski and his must be much longer, as it requires many numbers to repro­ colleagues in the ID "movement" not only did not ever pro­ duce the complex shape and the distributions of density and of duce such evidence that could be independently verified, but color. This is a very simple example of the fallacy of Dembski s in fact offered no evidence at all despite having substantial thesis according to which design is indicated by "specified financial support and a significant fighting force at their complexity." Actually, in this example (as well as in an endless Discovery Institute of Seattle. Instead of supporting his theory number of other situations) it is simplicity which seems to by factual evidence and arguments of substance, all Dembski point to design while complexity seems to indicate chance as was able to do was to resort to a dubious reference that proves the antecedent cause of die item's characteristics. nothing and is largely irrelevant. That is the tenor of Dembski's entire presentation. Ad Populum Arguments In a similar manner, Dembski plays with other quotations That is about all Dembski chose to discuss in his presentation allegedly supporting his thesis, like a quotation from Mencken with regard to the substance of the dispute. Instead, Dembski juxtaposed with a quotation from Gould, which, Dembski dabbles in prophecy. His argument in favor of ID mainly boils implies, contradict each other. The two quotations may or down to references to polls which show that the majority of may not contradict each oilier (and actually they were relating Americans believe in some form of creationism. This may be to different situations and therefore their juxtaposition was true. However, Dembski himself gives an example of astrology, meaningless). It is, however, always possible to mine a host of which is probably even more popular in America than is ID, quotations on every subject and pretend that tJiey prove some­ but this by no means makes astrology plausible. Dembski is thing even if they are not relevant to each other in any way. not arguing in his presentation that ID will win the minds Such play with mutually irrelevant quotations confirms the because it is true. It will win, predicts Dembski, because the suspicion that Dembski has no real arguments that would be American public is predisposed to believe in ID. The same necessary in a talk to an audience not consisting of such ID may be true, diough. for astrology and other fads and adherents who would happily swallow anything seemingly he himself listed as being widespread despite their contradict­ confirming their already held preconceptions. ing scientific data. One of the main points stressed by Dembski in his presen­ One more argument by Dembski is that young people are tation is the assertion that Intelligent Design, unlike such inclined to take the side of innovators, and, since ID-ists are fringe pseudoscience as astrology and the like, has by now the new guys in town, the sympathy of the younger generation become firmly "mainstream." In this, Dembski depicts the will be with them, thus ensuring their victory. Once again, this desired as if it is real. So far, die overwhelming majority of may be true but it has nothing to do with the merits of ID mainstream scientists ignore ID, as can be seen by searching "theory." If scientific theories were accepted or rejected by a through die scientific literature. Practically no scientific maga­ popular vote, or just by the vote of young people, quantum zine has published articles by scientists wherein a discussion of mechanics, the general theory of relativity, and a whole bunch ID and related matters could be found. No references to ID of odier great achievements of the human mind would never can be found in the mainstream peer-reviewed scientific pub­ have had a chance to take their legitimate place in the progress lications. The ID advocates either publish their productions as of humankind. popular or semi-popular books and collections by nonscien- Later Dembski argues that his ID dieory is "not a crank tific publishers or in their own periodicals mosdy connected to theory (at least not one that is obviously so)." The sole argu­ their Discovery Institute. The only exception seems to be ment Dembski offers in favor of that statement is that Paul Dembski's monograph (Dembski 1998) published by die Davies "thinks that it's onto something important," rJius dis­ Cambridge University Press. Even this book, reportedly, was agreeing with those who, like Wesley Elsberry, "think it merely Dembski's doctoral dissertation in philosophy rather than in codifies the argument from ignorance." This seems to be a science. Regardless of how many times Dembski will repeat his rather weak argument, even by Dembski's standards. The ref­ mantra about "mainstreaming" ID, the scientific community erence to Davies can be interpreted in various ways and is far has not and will not accept the claims by ID-ists unless and from endorsing ID as a real scientific theory. Moreover, so until he and his colleagues present real data supporting their what if Davies or any other writer has indeed said something contentions. So far no such data have been presented. that can somehow be interpreted charitably regarding The overall level of Dembski's acerbic assault on skeptics Dembski's ideas? A position whose strength can be sustained can be exemplified by his comment that the letters COP in the only by such ambiguous references is weak indeed and can be acronym CSICOP are "not accidental." Is this so? The absence suspected of being crank science with a high degree of likeli­ of real arguments may be sometimes replaced with attempts at hood. If all Dembski can say in support of his views is that being witty by using irrelevant puns. Dembski wants readers somebody thinks it has "something to it," it raises a suspicion to believe that the organization of skeptics is like police trying that he has no factual evidence favoring his suppositions. To to muzzle its opponents. Somehow he does not notice die

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 2002 33 absurdity of such an accusation given the fact that he and a program of action for skeptics if they wish to defend their Nelson are freely presenting their views at the meeting orga­ position against ID. In his uncompromising self-confidence nized by the same CSICOP which allegedly is out to prevent Dembski seems not to realize that if he suggests a new, the IDists from presenting tfieir views. allegedly revolutionary theory, the burden of proof is on him and on his colleagues in the ID camp. It is ID-ists who need to provide evidence, any evidence, in support of their position. It is precisely the absence of evidence for the ID If Dembski or any of his colleagues dieory that makes skeptics (read: main­ showed any reasonable evidence supporting stream scientists) reject ID. If Dembski or their views, then, beyond doubt, scientists any of his colleagues showed any reasonable evidence supporting their views, then, would be much more receptive to their theory. beyond doubt, scientists would be much more receptive to their theory. So far this has not happened. Therefore, rather than suggesting what skeptics should do to Let me list some of the items that were discussed by defend their views from the assault by ID, Dembski should Dembski's critics (a partial list of critical reviews of Dembski's better think of how to search for any believable proof of his literary production is given in my references section; this list own so far arbitrary and dubious assertions. does not include many more critical discussions of Dembski's By inviting Dembski and Nelson to give talks at the Fourth work). To some of his critics Dembski never replied in any World Skeptics Conference, its organizers offered Dembski a form. To some others he responded, for example in his latest chance to reply to his critics on the matters of substance and book (Dembski 2002), with superficial and largely irrelevant to defend his position in front of a diversified audience, mostly arguments (as discussed by Wein 2002 and Perakh 2002), but not very friendly to his views. By taking the floor at the con­ he never really replied to the substance of a number ol points ference in question, Dembski put himself in an unenviable listed below, which constitute essential elements of his theory. position of denying a simple fact obvious to all—he was com­ • Dembski asserted (Dembski 1998 and 2002) that com­ plaining about skeptics suppressing his views while speaking to plexity is tantamount to low probability. This assertion was the same skeptics who provided him the forum. rebuffed by more than one of the listed critics. Dembski never replied to that critique. Acknowledgements • Dembski asserted that his "explanatory filter" (Dembski I would like to thank Brian Spitzer, Pete Dunkelberg, and Wesley 1998) never produces "false positives." This assertion was Elsberry for constructive remarks regarding the initial version of this article. rebuffed by several of the listed (as well as by some not listed) critics. Dembski never replied to them. (It can be argued, References though, that in his latest book Dembski [2002] by implication Elsberry. Wesley R. 2002. Review of W.A. Dembski's The Design Inference, conceded that false positives can be produced by his "explana­ www.1alkreason.org/2nicles/infcrcnce.cfm, accessed on June 22, 2002. tory filter" after all; he still did not admit this explicitly.) Dembski. William A. 2002a. Skepticism's Prospects for Unseating Intelligent Design, www.iscid.org/papcrs/Dcmbski_SkepticismsProspects__062102. • Dembski announced a supposedly new importanr law— pdf, accessed on June 22. 2002. the so-called Law of Conservation of Information (Dembski . 1998. The Design Inference, Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge 1998 and 2002). More than one critic argued that the law in University Press. . 2002b. No Free Lunch—Why Specified Complexity Cannot Be question does not exist. Dembski never replied to those critics. Purchased without Intelligence, Lanham. Maryland: Rowman and • Dembski widely used a concept of what he called "specified Littlefield. complexity" (Dembski 1998 and 2002). More man one critic Edis, Taner. 2001. Darwin in Mind—'Intelligent Design Meets Artificial Intelligence, www.csicop.org/si/2001-03/inielligenr-design.hrml, accessed argued that the concept in question is meaningless in the sense on January 17,2002. it has been used by Dembski. The latter never replied to this cri­ Fitelson, Branden, Christopher Stephens, and 1.1 lion Sober. 1999. How not to tique. The same can be said about Dembski's concept of CS1— detect design—critical notice: William Dembski, The Design Inherence. Philosophy of Science 66: 472-488. "Complex Specified Information" (Dembski 1998 and 2002). Pennock, Robert T. 2000. Tower of Babel Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press. • Dembski insists that design can be reliably inferred if low Perakh, Mark. 2001. A Consistent Inconsistency, www.talkrcason.org/ aniclcs/dcmbski.cfm. accessed on June 22. 2002. probability of an event is combined with its specification. . 2002. A Free Lunch in a Mousetrap, www.talkrcason.org/anidcs/ More than one of the listed critics has argued that the specifi­ dem_nfl.cfm, accessed on June 22, 2002. cation as defined by Dembski has no reasonable interpreta­ Wein. Richard. 2000. What's Wrong with the Design Inference, http://wcbsite.linconc.net/-rwcin/skcptic/whatswrong.htm, accessed on tion. Dembski never responded to those critiques. November 22. 2001. There are other claims by Dembski that have been subjected . 2002. Not a Free Lunch But a Box of Chocolate, www.talkrcason.org/ to critique to which Dembski has never responded while he con­ anides/choc_nfl.cfm. accessed on June 22. 2002. Wilkins. John S., and Wesley R. Elsberry. 2001. The advantages of theft over tinues to promote the same criticized concepts and assertions. toil: The Design Inference and arguing from ignorance. Biology ami In his presentation, Dembski condescendingly suggested Philosophy 16: 7'11. •

34 November/December 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Hugo Gernsback, Skeptical Crusader

Throughout the 1920s and 1930s magazine publisher and "father of science fiction" Hugo Gernsback used his popular publications to fight a one-man war against pseudoscience. Virtually every issue of magazines such as Science & Invention contained debunking articles, tests on claims for psychic abilities and extraordinary medical devices, and offers of substantial cash awards to anyone who performs a successful demonstration.

RON MILLER

hen Poptronics, a magazine published by Gernsback Publications, recently published an W article expounding the bizarre theory that the great pyramids of Egypt are in fact giant radios, Hugo Gernsback would surely have been at best astonished and at worst horrified. Long before Randi and CSICOP, the Luxembourg-born editor and founder of a seemingly endless line of popular magazines had waged a long—and for the most part solo—war against pseudoscience of all kinds, from astrology to medical quacks, spiritualism and every other sort of "humbuggery." He used the power of his immensely pop­ ular magazines to advance his crusade and was always willing to put up considerable amounts of cash to back his beliefs.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 2002 35 Gernsback was born in 1884, emigrating to the United Neurasthenia Baldness States when he was twenty, bringing with him an abiding pas­ Mental Derangement sion for anything dealing with electronics and radio. By 1906 Insomnia Hair he was marketing a home radio set and two years later founded Cataract Mastoiditis Modern Electrics, the first of a long line of magazines to bear Catarrh Acne his name as editor or publisher. It was in this magazine that he Mumps serialized his science fiction novel, Ralph 124C41 + Goiter (1911-1912), a dreadful story from a literary viewpoint—it is Tuberculosis High really little more than a catalog of the scientific and techno­ Blood Gall Stones Pressure logical wonders Gernsback expected to find in the twenty-sev­ Tumor enth century—famous for its accurate description of radar. Bright's Indigestion Modern Electrics evolved into Electrical Experimenter, which Appendicitis featured the regular installments of "Baron Munchausen's Obesity Hernia Constipation Scientific Adventures," written anonymously by Gernsback. Convinced that science fiction was the ideal medium by which Rheumatism science education could be painlessly sugar-coated for his read­ ers, Gernsback made certain that science fiction stories and Sciatica 2 — - Ulcers serials were included in most issues of Electrical Experimenter Varicose and its successor, Science & Invention. Stories included contin­ Veins uations of the Munchausen series as well as reprints and orig­ inal stories by authors such as Ray Cummings, Clement Fezandie, and Abraham Merritt. After seeing the enthusiastic response to a special "scientific fiction" number of Science & Invention (August 1923), Gernsback announced his plans for a new magazine devoted entirely to scientific stories, to be BEFORE called Scientifiction. It was not until nearly three years later, If we are to believe the testimonials, a person as indicated above however, that this project got off the ground and the first issue could be cured. What lonaco can't cure simply "ain't." of Amazing Stories appeared. It was the first magazine to exclu­ sively publish what was to be later known as science fiction. Although by today's standards most of the fiction published in the old Amazing is almost unbearably creaky, didactic, and, in far too many instances, almost illiterate, they were almost all written under Gernsback's ironclad dictum that science fic­ tion's first duty was to be educational, with all other consider­ ations secondary at best—if they were considered at all. The magazine was fabulously popular. Part and parcel of Gernback's intense interest in getting the fundamentals of hard science across to his readers was his no less enthusiastic campaign against pseudoscience. He took on astrology, spiritualism, perpetual motion machines, and, espe­ cially, medical . Page after page, even whole issues, of Science & Invention and its sister magazines were devoted to deflating pseudoscientific medical claims, such as the debunk­ ing of "Dr." Rogers's "neurophonometer." Rogers immediately retaliated by unsuccessfully suing Radio News for a million dollars. Gernsback also took on Dr. Abrams "of Electronic fame" [see "The King of Quacks: Albert Abrams, M.D." by J.D. Haines, SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, May/June 2002] and Dr. Farnam's "Radio Health Energizer." Gernsback provided a feature article for the October 1928 issue in which he exposed "The lonaco Swindle." Manufactured by Gaylord Wilshire's Iona Company, the lonaco treatment, using an electromagnetic "belt" (which AFTER resembled, in Gernsback's words, "a horse collar more than anything else"), was supposed to magnetize the iron in the Advertisement for the lonaco treatment wearer's blood to die end that everything from acidosis to

36 November/December 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER vertigo was cured. Highly successful, die Iona company had Not satisfied widi staring his own opinions regarding die offices in San Francisco, Los Angeles, Seattle, Portland, worthlessness of die Ionaco belt, Gernsback followed up his arti­ , and Kansas City. It even published the I-On-A-Co cle by reprinting a repon issued by die Seattle Better Business News, a four-page newspaper. Bureau diat soundly condemned die Ionaco device, as well as The device itself was simple enough, consisting of a buckram rim about eighteen inches in diameter, wrapped witJi 3,411 feet of cotton-covered copper wire, all in turn "What the gullibles never seem to get covered witJi tape, felt, and an imitation Into their heads, is that 98 percent of the leather sleeve. When plugged into a ordi­ nary wall oudet, a small lamp held near die cures usually lie in 'faith/ and they would have belt would glow by means of die current been cured just as quickly by the 'waving hand' induced by die big electromagnet. "The gullible person," Gernsback said, "is sup­ healing process, or by 'sugar-coated pills,' posed to diink that diis shows a mysterious if their faith had been sufficient." action." Once the belt was plugged in it was placed around the waist of die patient, where the magnetic effect was supposed to cure just about anything. The Ionaco belt was not lim­ statements from numerous doctors and scientists. ited to human sufferers; it had its veterinary uses as well. Gernsback discovered diat many of the laudatory The literature diat accompanied die Ionaco belt was testimonials published by the Iona Company wete not the least shy about the claims made for it, nor did it not all diat diey seemed. In one example, he con­ stint in its pseudoscientific explanations, "all of tacted a Dr. Arbuthnot, who had been quoted which sounds like rubbish to the man of science. by Iona as saying diat her "wry neck had been Through die pamphlet occur a few statements instandy relieved" by the machine. by reputable scientists . . . diese statements are Arbuthnot replied to Gernsback diat, to well-known; but die point remains diat per­ the contrary, she "might just as well tinent passages are deliberately excerpted have used die left hind foot of a rab­ and presented to mislead die unwary. bit." Other testimonial writers ... Of all the highfalutin nonsense, Gernsback contacted knew noth­ peruse the following, copied verba­ ing of dieir "case" at all! tim from Wilshire's booklet, entitled "Of course," Gernsback observ­ 'The Short Road to Health: ed, "die Ionaco is not made to cure, However, not only does Ionaco act but to sell." And it sold very well, indirectly as a catalyser through too, in spite of its hefty price tag of the iron but it also acts directly, $58.50 ($65 in time payments). It for electro-magnetism is itself a was a good deal for the Iona catalyzer and induces metabo­ lism. Nowhere may this be bet­ Company since die Seattle Better ter seen than in the wonderful Business Bureau estimated diat diat cures performed by sunlight, and the belt cost only $5-75 to manu­ light is but an electro-magnetic Miss Belle Fox demonstrating one way in which the Ionaco may be facture and Gernsback was able to phenomenon. worn. The other method was to support it from one shoulder so that duplicate one for only $3.50. The magnetic flux from the it ran diagonally across the body. Ionaco acts directly upon the elec­ tronic structure of the molecular iron in the system and seems Hugo Versus Astrology to restore the proper catalytic action in pathologic conditions. Gernsback was particularly skeptical about the claims of astrol­ The result is that normal oxidation takes place and this explains the marvellous therapeutic results from using the Ionaco. ogy. He devoted his monthly essay, "The Astrology Humbug," in die October 1926 issue of Science & Invention to die sub­ Of course all the above is all nonsense, and has no founda­ ject. "One would think," he begins, "that in an enlightened tion in fact at all." age, which we are pleased to call our present era, Astrological Gernsback was perfectly aware why die Ionaco belt seemed to actually work in many cases, if the pages of enthusiastic tes­ Ron Miller is an author/illustrator specializing in scientific sub­ timonials were any indication. "What die gullibles never seem jects—astronomy and space sciences in particular. He is the author to get into their heads, is diat 98 percent of the cures usually o/The History of Science Fiction and The Dream Machines, lie in 'faith,' and diey would have been cured just as quickly by and is the co-author of The Art of Chesley Bonestell. He is die 'waving hand' healing process, or by 'sugar-coated pills,' if presently writing and illustrating a ten-book series about the solar their faith had been sufficient." system for young adults.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 2002 37 nonsense should have disappeared from the face of die earth selves how accurate the astrologers had been. long ago. The reverse is actually the fact. ..." Gernsback goes "And so we close the $6,000 Astrology Contest," the mag­ on to point out all of the flaws and discrepancies of astrology, azine concluded, "with the hope tiiat some this would-be sci­ criticisms on which "the astrologers remain silent." ence shall become scientific enough to give us accurate infor­ In spite of astrology's obvious lack of efficacy or any scientific mation. .. . The subject is interesting; it is even fascinating, basis, "astrologers and near-astrologers" still manage to "prey but it holds no truth whatsoever." upon credulous souls whose intelligence rating, as a rule, is not very high, or who, otherwise, are so superstitious diat Hugo Versus the Spooks their reasoning is thereby deadened. ... Do not Gernsback was no less gentle with the spiritualism deceive yourself," he urged his readers, "by join­ that was so popular in the 1920s and devot­ ing diat class of those simple mortals who te ed numerous articles, some of them author­ you glibly diat tiiey had their horoscopes taken, ed by the magician Dunninger (chairman 'just for die fun, of course,' all the while insist­ of die magazine's "Psychical Investigation ing they know it is a humbug. Secretly they Committee"), to debunking it. Occasionally, think, 'there may be something to it after all." Dunninger would devote a feature article to Not willing to dismiss astrology as a the expose of an individual medium, such as harmless fad, Gernsback condemns it as Portland, Oregon's Miss Amelia Bosworth. being capable of doing great harm, not the A long-running series was written by Edward least of which is defrauding the public of huge Merlin, "the reformed spiritualist," who for amounts of money, for astrologers were dien years had successfully performed seances. He was demanding fees as high as $300 for a reading— "positive that such a thing as a spiritual man­ a very significant sum in the mid-1920s. ifestation has never been produced and Like the Amazing Randi, Gernsback that all mediums that operate for pay are was willing to put his money where his fraudulent." Merlin's articles—profusely mouth was. In the case of astrology, he illustrated with how-to photographs— had a standing offer of $6,000 that would were devoted to exposing the gim­ be awarded to "the astrologer or fore­ micks and techniques used by medi­ caster who will foretell three major ums and spiritualists. events of such a nature that he will have Similar to its challenge to astrol­ no control over the outcome of the same. ogers and crank inventors, the magazine He must describe in advance each event in offered a reward of $1,000 for evidence detail, giving the location and result or the of actual supernatural phenomena. casualties if the event is an accident. $1,000 G.C.B. Rowe demonstrating how the $10,000 was added to this by Joseph F. "Konzentrator" was worn. This simple will be paid to the astrologer or forecaster device was claimed to stimulate thought Rinn and another $10,000 by Dunninger, who will produce three accurate, detailed, and perform other wonders. making the total prize a staggering (cer­ and perfect horoscopes, free of contradic­ tainly by 1927 standards) $21,000. To the tions, on the lives of three people whose initials will be given best of my knowledge, this money remained as safe as any of him when he requests the same and the birth dates and place the other prizes Gernsback offered. of birth will also be supplied by this office." For months, the magazine's stand on astrology filled its letter columns with Hugo Versus the Pseudoscientists considerable criticism from believers and Science & Inventions The nature of Science & Invention attracted inventors of all challenge was roundly criticized by astrological magazines, kinds, from the sincere, and often talented, home mechanic and such as Science and Astrology. "One group of astrologers," electrician to die crank whose inventions defied all known laws Gernsback asks, "tells us that no one can possibly live up to of physics, , and chemistry. "The editors," the mag­ the conditions of our contest. . . . We wonder why?" azine complained, "have received thousands of different designs Nevertheless, over the fifteen months the challenge ran, thou­ of perpetual motion devices, and have received hundreds of cir­ sands of astrologers and would-be astrologers from all over the cular letters soliciting finances for die building of perpetual world responded to the contest, attempting to successfully motion machines." If diey receive such a vast quantity of corre­ cast horoscopes for the three individuals selected by the mag­ spondence regarding perpetual motion schemes, diey reasoned, azine. No one appeared to have attempted to describe the then there must be many thousands of individuals who receive major event asked for and none of the horoscopes agreed— similar inquiries, usually soliciting an investment of some sort. they not only contradicted themselves, they were unani­ Fearing that many of his readers may be wasting their money in mously unsuccessful in describing the three people. this way, Gernsback offered this challenge to die perpetual Gernsback was fair: he not only published many of these motion entrepreneurs: "Just come in and show us—merely show horoscopes verbatim, he followed with the correct descrip­ us—a working model of a perpetual motion machine and we tions of the individuals so the readers could judge for them- will give you $5,000." He never had a successful taker.

38 November/December 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Gernsback was willing to take on any inventor who he felt crystal actually managed to support a 35-pound mass. There was touting a pseudoscieniific machine. For instance, he devoted was even a photo to prove it. several pages of the March 1928 Science & Invention to the The following issue exposed the hoax. It was reprinted. "Thought 'Konzentrator'," a device that Gernsback admitted "took the prize" among Gernsback was willing to put his all the scientific swindles he had investigated. "In some of die other devices we exposed," money where his mouth was. In the case of Gernsback writes with grudging awe, "at least astrology, he had a standing offer of $6,000 there may always be some remote question in someone's mind that 'there may be some­ that would be awarded to "the astrologer thing to it after all.'. . . But The Thought or forecaster who will foretell three major events Konzentrator, a German device ... is without doubt the most preposterous piece of bunk of such a nature that he will have no control that ever came to these shores. For the over the outcome of the same." Konzentrator actually does nothing . . ."

Gernsback was not above hoaxing his own readers on occa­ Gernsback admitted, from the April Fool's number of a sion—but with commendable intentions. The September 1927 German magazine. Had his readers examined the pho­ Science & Invention starded subscribers when it presented die tographs closely, he pointed out, they would have seen that straight-faced report that a German scientist named Dr. Kowsky none of the electrical equipment made the least bit of sense. had successfully invented a "gravity nullifier." So important was Moreover, they would have noticed that the wire supposedly this discovery that Gernsback even accorded it the magazine's connecting the quartz crystal to the weight wasn't even cover, which illustrated a charming blonde lounging in a porch touching the latter! "The moral," Gernsback reminded his swing supported only by an enormous white cube. Illustrated readers, "is that we should not believe everything we see, but with diagrams and photographs of the machine and its inventor, do a little original thinking ourselves, because we may never the story, told with exacting verisimilitude, reported every detail know, otherwise, what are facts and what are not." or the discovery—including the names of numerous authorities and respected journals—that quartz crystals charged by a high- References frequency current lost weight. So much so, in fact, that one large Cluic. John, and Peter Nicholls. 1995. The Encyclopedia of Science Fiction. New York: St. Martins Griffin. Moskowitz, Sam. 1957. Explorers of the Infinite. Cleveland, Ohio: World Publishing Co. D

$6,000.00 For Proofs of Astrology SCIENCE AND INVENTION at \ .ft Magazine holds that there is noth­ ing scientific in Astrology, that As­ trology is not a science and that statements made by astrologers un­ less very general cannot be enter­ tained seriously. Accordingly, this publication has i decided to award an Astrology )&gEE Prize for $5,000 for the following: j S5.000 will be paid to the astrologer ifS^w or forecaster who will foretell three major events of such a nature that he will have no control over the outcome of the same. He must describe in sdvance each event in detail, giving the location and result or the casual­ ties if the event is an accident. 1 ' t^^B^B ^ SI.000 will be paid to the astrologer IY3 or forecaster who will produce three ac­ curate, detailed and perfect horoscopes. free of contradictions on the lives of three people whose initials will be given him when he requests the same and the ;iWSl j_§ri : birth date* and place of birth will also .be supplied by this office. This contest closed October 1st, 1927, and further announcements will be made. Address all entries to Editor, As­ trology, care of SCIENCE AND INVENTION Magazine, 23C Fifth Avenue, New York, N. V. «TO - scitNCt * IMVTKTION - KADIO KTVIEW . AMAXWC siomirs - MADIO :VTU».I»CICW*( 1

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 2002 39 Alternative Medicine and Pseudoscience Comments of a Biophysicist

Many claims of alternative medicine practitioners and paranormal investigators are at odds scientific knowledge. A biophysicist deals with the biophysical aspects of these claims, some widely known, some specific to the Czech Republic.

VOJTECH MORNSTEIN

complete definition of alternative medicine or pseu­ doscience is very difficult or almost impossible. So- Acalled alternative medicine is usually characterized as a set of therapeutic and diagnostic modalities that are incon­ sistent with scientific knowledge (or ignore it intentionally). This definition is not correct because alternative medicine also often involves methods commonly used in evidence- based medicine. We acknowledge the usefulness of massages or relaxation, the potential for chiropractic therapy to treat lower back pain, and the relative or absolute effectiveness of many herbal remedies. Any alternative medicine method can help patients in a certain sense (it works—say the proponents triumphandy) due to the placebo effect or to substances or

November/December 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER procedures that appear also in evidence-based medicine. Similar problems are encountered when defining pseudo- science. For example, UFOIogy may be nonsense or a question of blind faith, but we cannot absolutely rule out contacts with extraterrestrials in the future. With the exception of mathematicians, nobody can give evi­ dence that a particular phenomenon does not exist, work, or happen. We cannot prove die homeopathic remedy has no pos­ itive effect on the patient; wc can only ask for sound evidence of it. We can ask what the results of double-blind placebo-con­ trolled trials are. Widiout getting into all the details, I am going to discuss die distortion of scientific—especially biophysical— knowledge in individual branches of alternative medicine. We can start with die concept of energy. This concept is com­ monly used not only in sciences but also in pseudoscience and most branches of alternative medicine. Most alternative medicine authors use that word only symbolically (i.e., the term energy is an equivalent of elan vital for them), not as a defined physical quantity. Therefore, energy becomes an example of semantic con­ tusion characteristic in postmodern thinking. This confusion could be fatal for people without education in sciences. In physics, energy is a clearly defined quantity; in the alternative medicine worid, usually nobody wastes time searching for any definition. Energy appears here as a magic word used for various tilings, ranging from the patients good mood to something radi­ ant that allegedly emanates from the healer's hand. Energy has various physical and chemical forms. In princi­ ple, it means an ability of a system to do work—mechanical, electrical, magnetic, chemical, etc. Therefore, it is not a radi­ ant fluid, which can be seen only by certain people and poured higher) is the most prominent problem because in such a case from one person to another like water from one cup to no molecule of the alleged remedy is present in the homeo­ another. The presence or absence of such "alternative" energy pathic drug. I don't have space to discuss the so-called consti­ is often detected by rods or pendulums, or someone's tutive remedies, which utilize a single universal remedy for any outstretched hands. health problem of the patient. "Negative energy" is a term commonly used in alternative Experiments of professor Jacques Benveniste on the action medicine and related . It is said to cause diseases at the cellular level of homeopathic dilutions of biologically or similar problems. From die viewpoint of biophysics, the active substances were published in Nature in 1988. This energy cannot be primarily positive or negative for humans. important attempt to verify homeopathic principles scientifi­ The same kind of energy can be harmful or useful, mainly cally ended in a fiasco when tested under scrutiny of an inde­ depending on the amount absorbed in the body. There are also pendent commission. no specific terrestrial or cosmic energies; no energy is specific Some homeopaths try to clear their conscience and link for living systems. Alternative healers often feign diat such spe­ homeopathy to natural sciences. They attempt to explain the cific vital energy really exists. They use various names taken activity of an absent substance, imagining information spots from mysticism or oriental religions—od, orgon, mesmerian encoded in water structure. According to them, these charac­ magnetism, prana, chi, etc. teristic spots, fingerprints, appear in solution, and are multi­ Now look at some common forms of alternative medicine plied by potentiation, i.e., shaking die solution after each dilu­ to discover what evokes such serious doubts in scientists. tion. Are diese spots some specific changes in die so-called cluster structure of water? Are they stable in time? Is it possi­ Homeopathy ble to remove a molecule of a diluted substance from the solu­ tion and maintain the existence of its spot at all? Nobody has Hahnemann's medical myth is the most vital branch of alter­ answered these questions satisfactorily. A considerable stir native medicine today. The principles "similia similibus cur- arose in connection with sensitive chemical analyses of high rantur" and "infinitesimal dilution" are resistant to any scien­ tific criticism, although they are inconsistent not only with sci­ Vojtech Mornstein is head of the Department of Biophysics, ence but also with sound reason. The biological effectiveness Medical Faculty, Masaryk, University of Brno, Jostova 10, CZ of highest homoeopathic dilution (e.g., one pan in 10* and 662 43 Brno, Czech Republic. E-maiL [email protected].

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 2002 41 homeopathic dilution, in which no molecule of the "mother of the so-called acupuncture points and meridians used. Even tincture" can be present. Traces of chemical substances that the measurement of electric impedance in these points seems were not present in pure (non-potentiated) solvent were also dubious because it is easily influenced by the electrode contact found. How can these be scientifically explained? pressure and area, humidity, and thickness of skin or place­ One explanation was given by Kenneth Suslick, who is a ment of the electrode. There are possibly points of lowered top specialist in investigation of the chemical and mechanical impedance in which the tissue can be stimulated more easily effects of ultrasound. It has been known for a long time that than at other points. However, are these points the same as the intense ultrasound causes oscillations of microbubbles in alleged acupuncture points? No one can answer this question water. This phenomenon is called cavitation. It can be evoked without being puzzled. It is sufficient to keep in mind that (a) also by turbulent streaming of water. The oscillating different acupuncture systems exist, and that (b) it is extraor­ microbubbles collapse vigorously and the temperature inside dinarily difficult to find the correct position of points because the microbubble increases rapidly up to thousands of degrees of individual body differences. centigrade. It is high enough to produce free radicals, starting Partial effectiveness of acupuncture could be explained psy­ a chain of chemical reactions. In pure water irradiated by ultra­ chologically (distracting the patient from his pain or illness) or sound under aerobic conditions, it is possible to find free oxy­ on the basis of reflex nervous mechanism or endorphin gen and hydrogen, hydrogen peroxide and superoxide, nitrous release—no special acupuncture points are then necessary. and nitric acids. It is clear that these substances also can be The "electroacupuncture according Dr. Vol!" (EAV) is not produced by shaking the water, because it is accompanied by only interesting—it is even horrible in light of medical ethics. It turbulent streaming, in which the cavitation as well as its is often used in Germany and the Czech Republic but similar chemical products must be present. methods are practiced all over the world. In this method, on the We can also describe a homeopathy-like method called basis of unclearly measured impedance of acupuncture points, spagyric (or Cellhelp, cluster medicine). It was invented in some electrical impulses of special shape are formed to achieve Germany and then exported to the Czech Republic. Several specific healing action. I had an e-mail discussion with a Czech dozen Czech physicians deal or dealt with this pure quackery. inventor of an EAV system for healing a diabetic's foot about This is the principle: At first, an organic substance that has some­ two years ago. The man was absolutely convinced that the sys­ thing to do with a patient's disease (an excrement, purulent mat­ tem is the best method of healing, but he was not able or will­ ter, etc.) is burned. The ash is then dissolved in water. A "diag­ ing to correctly describe the principle of measurement and ther­ nosis" is based on the microstructure analysis of crystals growing apeutic action. This method is also used to test homeopathic up from the evaporated solution—different crystal shapes are remedies or so-called nosodes—very diluted solutions of harmful allegedly typical for different diseases. Of course, to date nobody substances used for "therapy." The ill person holds a closed glass has shown any scientific evidence of that. This diagnosis is pure botde in his or her hand (!) that contains the tested remedy. The veiled by pseudoscientific babbling. Water distilled electric response measured in an acupuncture point determines from the ash solution—the so-called "dot"—is used as a remedy. the applicability of that respective remedy. The remedy can be Therefore, the previously mentioned and rejected information even simulated by electric impulses generated by a computer, spots would be destroyed by burning at first, and then by evapo­ because the homeopaths deal only with information carried by ration and condensation of water again. the remedy. It is not a joke, but a pseudoscientific rapture of healers and physicians which may easily earn money by fraud. The 1 make is that of a television repairman. The Acupuncture service man, say, uses an oscilloscope to electric voltages Acupuncture is based on an ancient Chinese tradition which is in more or less arbitrary parts of the surface of a non-function­ interesting, though without scientific validity. Acupuncture is ing TV set. The voltages measured arc modified and sent back relatively effective in resolving pain and in some psychoso­ into the TV set. Is it possible to repair it in this way? Can we matic problems. Of course, the needle insertion is a much hope for a successful repair of something much more complex, more invasive procedure than, for example, swallowing a i.e., the human body, using the same procedure, in principle? homeopathic remedy. We cannot argue scientifically with an acupuncturist who believes in the yin-yang principle, because Paranormal Healing and Psychic Healers we cannot argue with knowledge based on faith. A discussion becomes possible when the European or American acupunc­ These terms encompass a mixture of healing procedures, which turists start to search for a way to combine acupuncture with exploit imaginary energies, supplied (the positive energy) or modern medicine. removed (the negative energy) by healers. Some healers shake Let us admit that there are many nerve endings or ganglia off the negative energy from their fingers, use a flame, or sim­ near the body surface which can be stimulated to influence ply wash their hands to remove the harmful negative energy. some physiological functions. For example, it is commonly The pendulum is a very important diagnostic tool for them known that by pressing a point under the nose we can avoid because they use it to get the "right" diagnosis. So-called auto­ sneezing. However, the number of such points is very limited. matic drawing, , clairvoyance, and astrol­ No success was achieved in searching for specific local mor­ ogy are also used for diagnostics. The healing "energy" is often phological structures which could be identified with hundreds concentrated or focused by talismans, models of pyramids, or

42 November/December 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER various Indian, Celtic, Egyptian, Christian, and other symbols. (1) Biophoton radiation theory—an idea about information Healing based on the alleged healing force of noble metals exchange between living systems or their parts by weak light and gem stones, or the so-called mumiyo coming from Middle radiation. Some microbiologists try to find it in bacteria or Asia, etc, are very similar. This "energetic" principle is also used other microorganisms. They also consider communication by in distance healing (e.g., television healers). Some producers offer sound signals. In my opinion, results of these experiments are instruments "able to receive" this energy from powerful healers. invalidated by inadequate methodology. The contemporary One such product, of Czech origin, looks like a credit card. controversy about the so-called Frohlich radiation, which seems The healing potential of psychic healers can be explained to be synonymous with the biophoton radiation, represents evi­ only by suggestion. For a scientist, die absence of acting energy dence of poor communication between physicists and biolo­ is die basic problem. There is no real energy diat could directly gists. As a biophysicist, I think diat die physicists investigating this radiation don't have die relevant knowledge about the com­ influence die patient's bodies and be measured by objective plexity of living matter. In contrast, biologists are not able to physical, chemical, or biological methods. oppose and falsify diis theory (in Popper's sense). (2) Ecological activism—naive ecological thinking and forc­ Healing Diets and Nutrition ing of controversial measures for environmental protection. I will not discuss nutrition systems based on real knowledge These activists argue, for example, that carbon dioxide causes a about the body and that are beneficial for health. But certain measurable greenhouse effect, but they ignore the existence of extreme diets (for healing or slimming, for example) ignore real natural temperature oscillations in the past. Roughly the same needs of die body and replace them with fictitious ones. As a community battles for animal rights. It is again a mixture of rea­ rule, dicsc diets arc naive conceptions based on incorrect or sonable diiuking and pscudorcligious beliefs. I cannot agree insufficient knowledge of physiology. Besides macrobiotics, with killing of animals for entertainment or to obtain luxurious which can cause vitamin or protein deficit, diesc are mainly: furs. However, reasonable usage of animal models for testing of • Diets containing "live" enzymes. They are based on the idea anticancer drugs seem unavoidable to me. Further, more or less the same group of people protests against genetically manipu­ diat enzymes are able to pass through alimentary tract without lated foods. Why? It is well known that mankind has performed losing their natural activity. The digestive process is ignored. A genetic manipulations for centuries by breeding. This move­ refined form of this diet is modern enzyme therapy. Of course, ment, very strong in Europe, is probably not driven only by fear the enzymotherapeutic remedies are at least protected against the of genetic and health dangers, but also some well-hidden eco­ ,ti t ion of gastric juice, and perhaps a small amount of them could nomic interests of the agricultural lobby. Anti-nuclear move­ penetrate into the tissues of our body. However, enzyme dierapy ments struggle against nuclear power plants, protesting the dele­ does not belong among proven therapeutic methods. terious effects of ionizing radiation. I belong among the people • Vegan and fruitarian diets. They cause lack of some amino who think of nuclear energy as a necessary evil on the way to less acids or vitamins, unless these are consumed in food additives. dangerous, alternative, but powerful enough sources of energy. • Urine consumption. According to die gurus of diis dubi­ Consider that only a small part of emitted solar power reaches ous diet, the nitrogen-containing waste substances present in Earth's surface! Why not take more of this energy and utilize it urine can replace nitrogen from proteins. The urine is also outside Earth to avoid its unnecessary heating? However, this compared with homeopathic remedies for it contains traces of goal cannot be reached without modern functioning industry— substances created during various diseases. Urine consumption and nuclear energy—because the fossil fuels, such as coal, oil, is not propagated only by die uneducated. The Czech author of and natural gas, are limited. That is why die radiophobic anti- books about urine therapy, Jiri Cingros, worked in Czech nuclear movements are misguided. diplomatic services, in Russia at first, later (several years ago) even as die Czech ambassador to Yemen. After he became sus­ picious of some illegal business activities in the embassy, he Conclusion simply disappeared, leaving behind only botdes containing It is dangerous when the people promoting alternative medicine urine of the embassy employees. and paranormal activities have scientific erudition. Some even • Cleansing diets. They are often combined with enemas. work in universities and research institutions. Many other sci­ All our diseases are explained on the basis of deposition and fer­ entists are tolerant or neutral, unable to recognize or combat lies mentation of waste substances. The bacterial infections are mimicking sciences. However, they accuse die skeptics of intol­ denoted a secondary process. Bacteria simply grow and prolif­ erance instead of supporting them. Most of the "independent" erate in the deposits, helping so to remove them. Where is the media and postmodern philosophers attack skeptics in the same whole knowledge of microbiology and the legacy of Pasteur? way. I am worried by die possibility diat genetically manipu­ There are many areas on the boundaries of science that can lated food will be forbidden today, all animal experiments be also considered pseudoscience when applying rigorous crite­ tomorrow, and die day after tomorrow, homeopaths or shamans ria. They always contain elements of blind faith and pseudo- will become members of surgical teams. Considering die eco­ science mixed with legitimate results and die honest effort to nomic interests of media, the populism of policymakers, the solve problems or at least give evidence of these problems. Here decreasing level of students' knowledge of dien natural sciences, are two quite different examples: this nightmare is not as improbable as it may appear.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 2002 43 Are Skeptics Cynical? Popular Misunderstandings of Skepticism

Many people seem to confuse cynicism with skepticism, and believe that critical thinking results in a negative attitude about life. However, this opinion rests on a number of mistaken assumptions about the nature of skepticism. Skeptics must correct these misconceptions if they hope for the wider application of critical thinking.

PHIL MOLE

ne afternoon, after sending an e-maii refuting vari­ ous urban legends, I received an interesting response Ofrom a friend who received my message. She thanked me for correcting so much misinformation, but also commented in passing that I seemed to be "somewhat of a cynic." Why was I a cynic, I asked? In her reply, she cited my apparent unwillingness to believe anything on faith. She con­ strued my habit of questioning ideas and information pre­ sented to me as a general pessimism about life. This misinterpretation of my viewpoint was puzzling, because I've almost always considered myself an optimist. I genuinely think the world is an amazing place, and I imag­ ine I could spend upwards of five lifetimes exploring its

44 November/December 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER wonders. I'm practically immune to depression. In spite of French writer Alexis de Tocqueville observed in his classic what the evening news and Lifetime movies seem to indicate, I book Democracy in America, citizens in a democracy tend to even believe most people are basically good. To my mind, all confuse two concepts. They diink that dieir right to hold their of this demonstrates me to be a pretty optimistic guy. But to own opinions somehow makes all opinions equal. Of course, my friend, and to many other acquaintances I've made nothing is further from the trudi. A right to hold a belief does throughout the years, my skepticism sufficiently proves me to not entail a guarantee of its truth, and does not imply immu­ be a cynic at heart. nity from critical examination. In fact, pursuit of truth Cynicism is a general negative attitude about life—a feeling that things will pan out for the worse. Skepticism is simply applied critical thinking, especially with regard to unfounded or poorly established Why do many people confuse claims. The two terms have no relationship. skepticism with cynicism, and equate any Why then do many people confuse skepti­ cism with cynicism, and equate any attempts to think critically with attempts to think critically with a gloomy a gloomy outlook? outlook? Generally, most people have sev­ eral misconceptions about what skeptics do, and these misconceptions tend to make them view us in an unflattering light. This article will examine requires the rational evaluation of competing truth claims in a some of these misconceptions, and attempt to respond to each spirit of free inquiry. Some ideas are better than others, and of them. skepticism is simply the methodology for assessing the merits of different truth claims. It follows that those who are trained Misconception #1: Skeptics Consider People Who in the methods of critical diinking will be better skilled at this Don't Share Their Beliefs to Be Stupid task (IUM those who lack such training. Skeptics often demonstrate the evidence for many claims to be Training in critical thinking is important because, as cogni­ unreliable, or even nonexistent. When this occurs, believers in tive researchers such as Massimo Piatelli-Palmarini have shown these claims at times attack the alleged attitude of intellectual (1994), innate cognitive biases often seem to impair our judg­ superiority associated with skeptics. They claim skeptics are ments. To see examples of some of these cognitive biases in just a bunch of haughty know-it-alls who look down on every­ action, let's suppose we flip a coin ten times and record the one who disagrees with them. Doesn't each person have a right numbets of heads and tails. We perform this exercise twice, to his or her own opinions? Since skeptics criticize the ideas of and obtain the following results: otJiers, they must be guilty of arrogance and contempt for their fellow human beings. 1)HTHTHHTTHT Needless to say, diere are many problems with this view of 2)TTTTH TTTTT skeptics. While skeptics are human, and may sometimes show insufficient sympadiy for believers of dubious claims, there is Which of these two series is more likely? Think it over, and no necessary link between skepticism and intellectual arro­ remember your answer. Now, suppose we vary the number of gance. Skeptics should, and often do, recognize true believers as coin flips in each series. We record the following two strings of human beings with understandable feelings and motivations. outcomes: Exposing the falsity of a claim does not compel us to cynically conclude that die claimant is morally or intellectually inferior. 3) HTTHTTHH In fact, many of die most prominent proponents of pseu- 4) HHHHH doscientific theories are highly intelligent, and possess advanced academic or professional degrees. The creationist Again, choose the outcome you think is more likely, and Hugh Ross, for instance, has a Ph.D. in astronomy, and die remember your answer. Ayurvedic "healer" Deepak Chopra is a licensed physician. If you chose (1) and (3) as being the most statistically These are not die credentials of simpletons. The truth of a likely, you're in good company. The overwhelming majority of claim is quite independent of credentials, or die claimant's participants in studies like this have chosen identically, and I apparent intellectual abilities. Smart people can and do commit may add, incorrecdy. The first two series are equally likely, logical errors that only careful skeptical investigation can reveal. since the probability of each coin flip outcome being either Why do so many people think that skeptics are pessimistic and elitist when they insist on the critical evaluation of ideas Phil Mole has a masters degree in public health from the and evidence? I think the answer has somediing to do widi die University of Illinois at Chicago. He frequently writes about issues comforting relativism, especially prevalent in American soci­ relating to science, philosophy and religion, and lives in Elm wood ety, that tells us diat all ideas have equal validity. As the famous Park, Illinois. He may be reached [email protected].

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 2002 45 heads or tails is one-half, and we obtain the probability of the always on the claimant. There are many unsubstantiated series by multiplying the probabilities of the individual coin claims out there, and skeptics cannot possibly evaluate all of flip outcomes together. Therefore, series (1) and (2) have them. Just as a plaintiff must present evidence that his or her equivalent probabilities of (-5)'°, or (1/1,024). And against our allegation is not frivolous before the court will consider it fur­ best common sense, series (4) turns out to be eight times more ther, the supporters of a controversial new idea must try to likely rJian series (3). Once again, the only statistically valid argue that their ideas are worthy of review. way to determine these probabilities is to find the product of Of course, if a skeptic decides to look more intensively at a the individual coin flip outcome probabilities. When we cal­ claim, he is under no obligation to accept it as true. As dis­ culate this, we find that the probability of series (3) is (.5)8, and cussed previously, there are standards for evaluating ideas, and the probability of series (4) is (.5)\ not all ideas are equal. Some ideas deserve rejection. But ulti­ Our natural tendency is to view (1) and (3) as being more mately, true skepticism involves assessing a claim on its own "typical" results because they contain an equal number of heads merits, and not arbitrarily rejecting it. Skeptics do not dog­ and tails. The pattern fits our conception of what a string of fair matically declare certain ideas impossible, even when they coin toss outcomes should look like. But our natural tendency involve paranormal phenomena such as ghosts, extrasensory is wrong. Furthermore, as Piatelli-Palmarini points out, cogni­ perception (ESP), or extraterrestrial visitations. As physicist tive errors such as this occur independendy of the subjects Phillip Morrison has argued, nothing is too wonderful to be degree of professional or academic education. People consid­ true (1997). Many scientists once strongly doubted the valid­ ered experts in statistics often perform more poorly than those ity of revolutionary ideas that now form the very backbone of of us with no training in statistics at all. Clearly, theres more modern scientific thought: heliocentrism, natural selection, involved in thinking critically than just being smart. relativity theory, and plate tectonics, to cite a few examples. Thus, skeptics who insist on critical analysis of ideas are not But many of the same scientists eventually accepted these the­ being cynical or snobbish. They realize that human thinking is ories, since they proved to be valuable, empirically supported fallible, and desire reliable methods for making judgments. explanations. Skeptics follow the in giving Someone who does not understand these methods is not nec­ provisional assent to those theories that best match the evi­ essarily stupid, any more than someone who lacks medical dence and allow us to make the most accurate predictions. The training is stupid. We all have our different skills and aptitudes, degree of support can always change depending on new evi­ just as a doctor and an engineer have different areas of compe­ dence and/or the explanatory powers of rival theories. tence. Arc we being snobbish if we go to a doctor when we are It is instructive to contrast the provisional nature of skepti­ sick instead of going to a car mechanic or an engineer? Does cism and science with the comparably dogmatic acceptance of our preference for the doctors opinion imply that we think the many pseudoscientific beliefs. Astrology still has its loyal sup­ car mechanic and engineer are stupid? Of course not—we just porters, even though innumerable studies have demonstrated no recognize that there are judgments a doctor is best qualified to correlation between astronomical signs and personality, and make. Similarly, skeptics simply insist that people who have believers in astrology are routinely unable to recognize their own training and skills in critical thinking and a willingness to think astrological profiles. Most of these believers express no interest diligently are best qualified to evaluate ideas. Such insistence in reviewing these studies, or irrationally claim diat scientists implies nothing about the intelligence or worth of people who and skeptics are conspiring to belittle astrologers. By the same do not share the skeptics viewpoint or abilities. token, how many believers in the psychic abilities of Nostradamus have ever actually read any of his alleged "predic­ Misconception #2: Skeptics are Closed-Minded, tions," and how many of the paranormal faithful have taken a and Think That Logic and Science Can Explain good, earnest look at the "evidence" for the existence of Bigfoot, Everything the Loch Ness monster, or extraterrestrials? If diey really believe Skeptics reject insubstantial evidence and insist on the primacy as much as they say diey do, why would they fear or resent an of science for answering questions about the empirical world. honest examination of the facts? When confronted with these However, some people extrapolate these characteristics to questions, many paranormalists will simply say the equivalent reach mistaken conclusions about the motivations and pur­ of, "I believe what I believe, and that's that." While they're enti­ poses of skepticism. To them, the dismissal of flimsy evidence tled to hold beliefs unsupported by science or logic, it seems fair demonstrates that skeptics close their minds to any evidence to find them guilty of the charges of closed mindedness they conflicting with their own beliefs. Additionally, diey misread unjustifiably hurl at skeptics. Although paranormalists often the skeptic's esteem for scientific inquiry as a naive belief that accuse skeptics of "explaining away" all the mysteries in life, they science and logic can explain everything. themselves stubbornly grasp at tidy supernatural explanations Good skeptics do not simply reject evidence conflicting for any phenomena they do not understand. with their current beliefs. They do sometimes dismiss certain Science, unlike pseudoscience, is keenly aware of the limi­ claims out of hand, but only when these claims are identical or tations of human knowledge. Contrary to what many people extremely similar to claims already disproved beyond any rea­ believe, skeptics insist on the application of critical drinking sonable doubt. Skeptics are willing to consider good evidence because diey know diat science cannot explain everything, and or arguments in favor of a claim, but the burden of proof is want the knowledge revealed by the scientific method to be as

46 November/December 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER reliable as possible. As Immanuel Kant argued over two hun­ flood of Exodus, general belief in God probably cannot be fal­ dred years ago, all of the information we obtain about the sified or verified to the satisfaction of all rational people. "But world registers in our minds indirectly and imperfectly, wait," some skeptics may be asking, "what about the theory of through our senses. Furdiermore, our perception of the world evolution by natural selection? Doesn't evolution reveal a uni- is influenced by extra-rational factors, such as emotions or hormonal fluctuations. However, Kant also showed that These lim­ itations do not prevent us from obtaining a Skeptics who insist on critical analysis of reliable and self-consistent body of knowl­ ideas are not being cynical or snobbish. edge. Skepticism is one of the major tools for ensuring the integrity of this knowledge. Are we being snobbish if we go to a doctor There can be, and must be, things diat when we are sick instead of going to a science is unable to explain. Is it possible that our fallible human minds, crafted car mechanic or an engineer? Skeptics simply through millions of years of natural selec­ insist that people who have training and skills tion acting upon imperfect starting materi­ als, can comprehend everything about the in critical thinking and a willingness to think universe? Many questions may ultimately diligently are best qualified to evaluate ideas. prove to be solely metaphysical, such as why there is something in the universe rather than nothing, or whether there is a God. It should also be obvious that science has little to say verse without design?" The answer is that evolution has as about the meanings of many of our most sublime human much, or as little, consequence for belief in God as any other experiences—die feelings associated with love, or stimulated established scientific theory. This is true even though organic by contact with great works of art. Then again, these experi­ evolution encompasses the entire known biosphere. To see ences never constituted the proper subject of science in the why, consider the fact that all living creatures are made of first place. Science is concerned with explaining the world we cells, and cellular mitosis and meiosis govern the life cycles of live in, and skepticism is one of its most important methods. these cells. It follows that cellular mitosis and meiosis, in direct ways, then govern the entire living world, but most of Misconception #3: Skeptics Try to Undermine us would find it odd if a scientist claimed that this fact proved Religious Faith, and Show That Life Is Hopeless there was no God. Any natural process can form part of a the- According to popular opinion, science and skepticism seem to ist's image of die Creator's actions and purposes. As William conflict with hope and faith. Many people seem to fear that James would say, personal belief in God remains a "live skepticism reveals a world without purpose. To some degree, I option," because the evidence does not, and probably cannot, can understand and sympathize with this fear. After all, many overwhelmingly contradict it. former tenets of religious faith, such as geocentrism and the Second, even if skepticism does challenge some religious Biblical creation story, now stand discredited. Furthermore, beliefs, there are no consistent connections between theologi­ some scientists and skeptics periodically make unwarranted cal belief and optimism. Very many devout believers have held metaphysical and theological judgments based on scientific profoundly negative views of life, and many agnostics and theories. Stephen Hawking, in his fine book A Brief History of atheists have been quite cheerful. Of course, some theists Time, contends that modern cosmological theories may maintain that their belief in eternal life is the only thing that demonstrate the absence of a Creator. Some skeptics also tend makes life bearable for them. It should be clear that this is to lump all forms of religion in with irrationalism and super­ nothing more than a statement about their own lack of happi­ stition.' Needless to say, religion is one of the main expressions ness in the life they already possess. Is it reasonable to expect of human hope. When skeptics belittle religion, they lead that someone who is miserable during her short time on earth many people to the conclusion that skepticism is incompatible will become permanently happy in a life extended indefinitely? with the search for meaning and spiritual fulfillment. Anyone who believes that critical thinking undermines hap­ Still, there is no unavoidable reason why skepticism should piness is a cynic in disguise. Since critical thinking is an essen­ undermine our deepest hopes. We can say this confidently for tial tool for revealing truths about our world, the person who two reasons. First, skepticism cannot definitively disprove the claims that skepticism erodes his happiness is essentially saying existence of a deity. The concept of God is so subjective, and that the truth erodes his happiness. She would prefer the world to so variable from one person to the next, that it's difficult to be different than it really is. We can reasonably conclude that a imagine how skeptics could ever disprove die existence of person could only hold such a thought if she felt negatively God beyond all reasonable doubts. While skeptics have dis­ about the world she lives in. But since few people like to think proved many religious claims with specific empirical conse­ of themselves as pessimists, they have to try hard to convince quences, such as the Biblical creation account and the global themselves that the world really is the way they imagine it to be.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 2002 47 They would like very much to ignore all evidence to the con­ opinions. Most important, skepticism need not threaten trary, and they may become defensive if their selective interpre­ human hopes, religious or otherwise. tation of life comes under closer scrutiny. Cynicism is an attitude about life, while skepticism is a Needless to say, such scrutiny often does reveal a num­ method for uncovering facts about life. Anyone may incorpo­ ber of pessimistic details about their allegedly rosy view of rate those facts into a general philosophy of life as he or she life. Consider the fact that many theists who consider best sees fit, but we'll all be better off if those facts have firm themselves quite optimistic believe that a large percentage foundations. Skepticism is the best means of ensuring the reli­ of humanity is essentially wicked, and will face eternal ability of our knowledge, and I don't think it's too optimistic damnation for their sins. And then there is the content of to hope for its wider application in the realm of ideas. the e-mails that many so-called optimists believe unques- tioningly. Many of these e-mails are urban legends spread­ Note ing false and dangerous misinformation. According to these 1. Sec, for example, Joseph L Daleiden's book The Final Superstition: A Critical Evaluation of the Judeo-Christian legacy (Buffalo: Prometheus, 1994). urban legends, for example, Taiwanese people snack on As the title implies. Dalciden views theism as the last major obstacle in the human embryos and Congress is a moral cesspool filled path of rationalism. with criminals and public leeches. These aren't exactly cheery notions, but someone who abandons critical think­ References ing has no defense against them. They unthinkingly accept Hawking. Stephen. 1989. A Brief History of Time. New York: Bantam Books. James, William. [1897] 1985. "The Will IO Believe." Reprinted in James, them, and consider themselves blissful optimists all the William. The Will to Believe and Human Immortality. New York: Dover. while. Such is life without skepticism. Morrison, Phillip. 1995. Nothing is Too Wonderful to Be True. Masters 1 hope I have shown that cynicism and skepticism have of Modern Physics, Volume 11. Woodbury, New York: American Institute of Physics. nothing to do with each other. A skeptic has no obligation to Piatclli-Palmarini. Massimo. 1996. Inevitable Illusions: How Mistakes of Reason unfairly judge others, and does not close his mind to contrary Rule Our Minds. New York: Wiley & Sons. •

HYPOTHESIS TESTING AND THE NATURE OF be discarded—not necessarily because we know for sure that they are wrong, but because they failed the test so many times SKEPTICAL INVESTIGATIONS that their likelihood is rapidly approaching zero. (That's why From page 30 it is ludicrous for somebody believing in pseudoscience to pre­ tend that skeptics actually test every potential case of telepathy or psychokinesis.) statistically savvy) skeptics, this is the formula (I promise, the By the same token, the likelihood of certain hypotheses will only one in the article): become so high, because of their continuously successful fit to the data, that we will regard them as true beyond reasonable doubt, at least for the time being. One important lesson for the skeptic is that within this philosophical (in fact, Bayesian) framework, the likelihood of an hypothesis is never exactly zero or one (100%), so that where X is the likelihood of hypothesis 2 when compared to one always needs to keep an open mind about things: you hypothesis 1, Ris the amount of information (variance) in the never know if new data will knock down the likelihood of a data explained by each model (hypothesis), and n is the sam­ favorite hypothesis, or suddenly raise the probability of an ple size (number of observations). Simple and powerful, it almost discarded one. On the other hand, we are free to bet grows on you. a beer on the (provisional) conclusion that there is no such A New Philosophy of Science thing as telepathy. So, next time you run an experiment, think in terms of several Additional Readings alternative hypotheses and analyze die data accordingly. This is a major shift in attitude for scientists and skeptics, and one Chamberlain, T.C. 1897. The method of multiple working hypotheses. Science \ 5: 92-96. that will become more common as more people are exposed to Cohen. J. 1994. The earth is round (p<0.05). American Psychologist 49: it. It will take decades for the textbook-entrenched standard 997-1003. approach to dissipate; science and scientists can be very con­ Dixon, P., and T O'Reilly. 1999. Scientific versus statistical inference. servative in their habits of mind. Yet, it simply makes sense to Canadian Journal of Experimental Psychology 53: 133-149. Jcfferys, W.H., and J.O. Berger. 1992. Sharpening Ockam's Razor on a think of progress in science not as the rejection of uninforma- Bayesian strop. American Scientist 80: 64-72. tive hypotheses, but as a continuous competition among dif­ Loftus, G.R. 1993. A picture is worth a thousand p values: On die irrelevance ferent solutions to a problem. This is the way scientists actu­ of hvpoihcMs testing in the microcomputer age. Behavior Research Methods. Instruments & Computers 25: 250-256. ally think, despite their frequent use of statistical methods that Tukcy. J. W. 1969. Analyzing data: sancrificaiion or deiccrivc work? American^ do not reflect such diinking. Eventually, some hypotheses will Psychologist 24: 83-91. •

48 November/December 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER BOOK REVIEWS

Skeptical About The Skeptical Environmentalist RICHARD M. FISHER

The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World. By Bjorn Lomborg. Cambridge University Press, London, 2001. ISBN 0-52101-068-3. 496 pp. Hardcover, $28.

hortly before he died, astronomer book by Danish statistician Bjorn (Grubb 2001). Other negative reviews and science popularizer Carl Sagan Lomborg. Lomborg's book has attracted have appeared in more specialized sci­ Swrote a wonderful book called The remarkable negative comment from the ence journals, such as Environment Demon-Haunted World: Science as a scientific community, juxtaposed with (Gleick 2001) and World Watch (Bell Candle in the Dark (Sagan 1996). The positive gushes from the popular press. 2002). Among the most vociferous crit­ book is both a personal odyssey of a dis­ The Washington Post calls it "the most sig­ ics has been Scientific American, which tinguished scientist's twilight and a bea­ nificant work on the environment since countered with its own debunking arti­ con of reason in a world awash with irra­ the appearance of its polar opposite, cle (Rennie 2002), including rebuttals by tional beliefs and superstition. Among a coterie of scientific heavyweights, all of the most important gifts that Sagan ^iAtM whom refute Lomborg's claims. bequeaths us in the book is his "baloney The gist of the scientific feedback detection kit." The kit is a handyman's • against Lomborg is that he displays wil­ tool set for skeptical thinking, and ful ignorance, quotes selectively from includes instructions for recognizing fal­ the works of others, and, perhaps above lacious or fraudulent arguments. all else, courts the attention of media Among the instructions: that accept his work at face value, in an • wherever possible obtain indepen­ the skeptical uncritical manner (Wilson 2001). The dent confirmation of the facts oddity is that the book, while claiming environmentalis: t to be a skeptical review of a wide body • encourage substantive debate on Mc.v.uring ' the subject by knowledgeable persons of "doomsaying" environmental studies, • spin more than one hypothesis should itself be subject to a healthy dose • ensure that every link in a chain of of skepticism. A reasonable layperson is argument works, not just most of them likely to look askance at Lomborg's The baloney detection kit also claims that virtually every environmen­ includes extensive advice on what not to tal indicator is better than scientists do. It is based upon fallacies of logic and claim, including world hunger, global Bjern I otnh. ii i rhetoric, some simple, others more com­ warming, forest depletion, species plex. My personal favorite among them extinction, loss of nonrenewables, acid is misunderstanding the nature of statis­ Rachel Carson's Silent Spring in 1962" rain, as well as water, air, and wastewater tics, with Sagan's example of President (Dutton 2001). Similar kudos are pollution. A reasonable person is also Dwight Eisenhower "expressing aston­ offered by The Economist. In contrast, likely to view with marked disbelief ishment and alarm on discovering that there has been a plethora of negative fully half of all Americans have below reviews of the book in scientific journals, Richard M. Fisher, Ph.D.. LLB, is a scien­ average intelligence." including the heavyweights Nature, tist and lawyer. He teaches at I had occasion to revisit Sagan's which calls it "deeply flawed" (Pimm and International Pacific College in Palm- baloney detection kit in the context of Harvey 2001), and Science, which disap­ erston North, New Zealand E-mail: reading The Skeptical Environmentalist, a proves of Lomborg's selective use of data [email protected].

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 2002 49 BOOK REVIEWS

Lomborg's claims that all that bad news that this "is a figure which with monot­ trumpeted with appropriate fanfare, at is the result of a directed and concerted onous regularity has been repeated the same time as other claims in the same cabal of environmental pressure groups everywhere until in the end we all area are swept under the carpet, or given to conceal the truth. In a nutshell, the believed it." The problem is, it hasn't, short shrift. truth may be out there ... but not in and we don't (Lovejoy 2002). However, this book. by emphasizing that 40,000 figure again Argument from Authority How then do we explain the ability and again, Lomborg tars with the same In the context of Lomborg's book, argu­ of someone who has admitted having no brush other, more current studies which ing from authority means garnering sup­ scientific training or expertise compara­ still show an alarming loss in biodiver­ port from leaders in the field, especially if ble to those he attacks to attract such sity over time. their support for you can be given with­ favorable press? Canadian scientist In creating his straw man, Lomborg out revealing their own existing prejudice David Suzuki suggests that it is because also engages another of the anti-science in favor of your point of view. The Lomborg assuages guilt about ecological tools, observational selection. Sagan English language version of Lomborg's problems (Suzuki 2002). In contrast to describes this as enumerating favorable book includes a number of favorable current United Nations reports which circumstances by counting hits and comments by various researchers paint a pretty dismal picture about the avoiding misses. Lomborg refers to the reprinted on the covers. Most noticeable state of the environment, Lomborg tells 40,000 number repeatedly, without of these is the praise of researcher Matt us what we prefer to hear: namely that referring to the body of work of the sci­ Ridley. The words "a brilliant and power­ things are a lot better than pessimistic entist in question, carried out in eighty- ful book," appear in big, bold print on scientists would have us believe. plus published papers over the course of the front cover, above the book's tide, More important than all of this, from a twenty-year period (Myers 2001). being a quote from "Matt Ridley, author the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER'S point of view, is In Demon-Haunted World, Sagan of Genome." Ridley is no slouch in the finding the answer to Lomborg's success talks frankly about himself, and other science field, and it would be tempting to through his use of die toolkit advice scientists, who occasionally get it wrong. conclude that his praise is high praise offered in Demon-Haunted World. By that The truth is, scientists make mistakes. indeed from an impartial genetics advice, I refer specifically to things Sagan Among those Sagan himself acknowl­ researcher. Unfortunately, what isn't warns us not to do. The Skeptical edges was his belief that when Iraq stated anywhere in The Skeptical Environmentalist is a textbook example of torched Kuwaiti oil wells in 1991, the Environmentalist is that Ridley is also a the anti-science toolkit in action. As such, smoke might be enough to disrupt agri­ past editor of The Economist, and is very it is extremely illustrative. Here are some culture. While it did get dark at noon, much a believer that economic progress of those tools and how they have been and while Persian Gulf temperatures did can go hand in hand with environmental (ab)used, chosen (due to length restric­ drop several degrees, not enough smoke improvement. This is in fact a very con­ tions) from a single chapter in Lomborg's reached the stratosphere to cause serious tentious view, and is opposed by many in book which deals with biodiversity. long-term disruption. Sagan got it the field of sustainable development. wrong (thank goodness). How do we know Ridley believes this? Straw Man Unfortunately, when a scientist is pre­ Because he says so himself, in a followup According to Sagan, a straw man fallacy mature in making conclusions, or is sim­ letter in support of Lomborg published is "caricaturing a position to make it eas­ ply wrong in the published literature, the in Scientific American (Ridley 2002). ier to attack." Lomborg uses a more sub­ paper stays around, bound somewhere Ridley may be right in encouraging a tle variation on this theme, by finding on a library shelf, where it can be quoted stronger linkage between economic an early, erroneous or exaggerated scien­ many years later, as Lomborg has done. development and sustainability, but that's tific viewpoint, and then treating it as Never mind that there are more current not the point. Many people will see his though it were still mainstream. In par­ figures: a past mistake may have been support on the cover of The Skeptical ticular, he quotes from the work of a sci­ found, and thus the whole body of liter­ Environmentalist, but only as the author entist who stated in 1979 that we could ature respecting biodiversity loss is sus­ of a popular book on genetics, and there­ be losing something in the order of pect. This also illustrates two more of fore out of context. 40,000 species a year to human-driven Sagan's anti-science tools: slippery slope, extinction. To increase the caricature, whereby letting even one, possibly exag­ Ad Hominem Attacks Lomborg reprints the 40,000 species gerated species-loss figure slide by with­ Lomborg decries what he perceives to be number on an X-Y graph so that the out trashing the enure field may lead to a number of personal attacks on himself 40,000 figure spikes up like a sore complete chaos, and suppressed evidence, in the myriad reviews that conflict with thumb from a near-zero baseline from or half truths, wherein a claim that has his own point of view. That may be in the years 1600-2000. Lomborg states been "caught out as poorly supported" is part a misplaced perception on the part of

50 November/December 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER BOOK REVIEWS anyone who is an inexperienced gladiator opposed to scores of thousands of initial investigations of natural and in the scientific arena. As Sagan points out species annually? Apparently so, accord­ physical phenomena. That's why the in Demon-Haunted World, scientists aren't ing to Lomborg, who considers that los­ study of problems like global warming is there to be the friends of new theorists. ing 0.7 percent of all species per fifty so easy to attack. There is now general They are diere to test new views, to chal­ years is a lot rosier than 40,000 species a consensus diat global warming is a gen­ lenge diem, to ensure diat tliey are robust. year. Thank goodness for percentages! uine phenomenon, but die uncertainty However, Lomborg himself slips into the As you can see from the above analy­ among studies as to its scope and speed tactic of attacking die arguer, rather rJian sis, people like Lomborg can get quite a provide more than enough ammunition die argument, when he states in his biodi­ bit of mileage debunking science. The for those determined to seek weaknesses in die arguments, and thus dither away versity chapter diat die basis of opinion of anti-science tools I've mentioned are just while the problem intensifies. biologists' arguments is diat "diere are a few in the larger collection Sagan sets many grants at stake." out in The Demon-Haunted World They Unfortunately, the only groups that can be quite fun to use, as a destructive will be served by Lomborg's book will be Inconsistency exercise. Earlier in the last century, for the pro-development and anti-environ­ An example of die inconsistency princi­ mental lobbies. No doubt they've been clamoring for a "feel good" book like ple, described in The Demon-Haunted Lomborg himself World, is the belief that it is "reasonable this, after all the bad news. I've already for die Universe to continue to exist for­ slips into the tactic of seen die book trotted out at globaliza­ ever into the future, but judge absurd attacking the arguer, tion meetings hosted by private interest groups favoring free trade. In sum, I'd the possibility that it has infinite dura­ rather than the give Lomborg's book a pass. Go to the tion into die past." This is arguably the argument, when he public library and check out Demon- most oft-repeated complaint lodged Haunted World instead. against Lomborg's book. In addition to states in his biodiversity selective use of data, critics argue diat chapter that the basis of Lomborg is inconsistent in his use of opinion of biologists' References global or regional trends, and switches arguments is that "there Bell, R.C. 2002. Media sheep. World Watch from one to the other where it pleases March/April: 11-13. his argument. This produces interesting are many grants Dutton, D. 2001. Greener than you think. The Washington Post. 21 October 2001, p. 01. results when talking about percentages. at stake." Grubb, M. 2001. Relying on Mana from Heaven? Remember our "40,000 species a year" Science 294: 1285-87. scientist? Lomborg is determined not to Gleick, P.H. 2002. Is the Skeptic all wet? Environment 44(6): 36-40. let him off the hook, and repeats diis example, we could have had a good crack Lomborg. B. 2001. The Skeptical Environ­ number several times in his biodiversity at Einstein, on die basis of his lousy mentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World. chapter. However, whenever Lomborg school record, paucity of published Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Lovejoy, T. 2002. Biodiversity: dismissing scientific talks about the "true" state of biodiver­ papers, unexplained holes in his work, process. Scientific American, January: 67-69. sity loss, he consistendy expresses it as a such as die existence of dark matter, and Myers, N. 2001. Specious: On Bjorn Lomborg that unusual, funky hairdo. Anyone who and species diversity, www.gristmagazine.com/ percentage, or rate of loss. His reason for grist/books/myersl21201.asp. Date posted: doing so is because that is die way bio­ uses rasa mnemonic for die velocity of 12 December 2001. diversity loss is measured these days. If light must be seriously unstuck. Pimm, S.. and J. Harvey. 2001. No need to worry about tile future. A

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 2002 51

• BOOK REVIEWS

drome, as well as good skeptical check­ Simplified Skepticism lists (such as for ordinary objects that might be mistaken for UFOs, as well as Suffers "the most common mundane causes of BENJAMIN RADFORD ghost phenomena"). Despite its refreshing skepticism, K.I.S.S. Guide to the Unexplained By Joel Levy. DK K.I.S.S. Guide to the Unexplained also Publishing, Inc. New York, New York, 2002. ISBN has plenty of non-sequiturs and head- 0-7894-8941-4. 288 pp. Softcover, $20. scratchers, such as Levy's claim that "There is evidence that even small card­ board pyramids seem able to sharpen dull razor blades and preserve food. A y friends and family have book on the shelf or send it to our Czech inventor, Karel Drbal, has been generally had the good sense bulging Center for Inquiry Library. granted a patent for manufacturing sty- to avoid giving me gifts that However, I stopped my wrist in mid- rofoam pyramids for use as razor sharp­ M eners." Let me get this straight: Levy insult me. I don't get cleaning products, swing and cracked the book open to give for example, or deodorant soap. I also it a look. Instead of the usual patchwork accepts the granting of a patent (from don't get books whose titles begin with of credulous paranormal pap, I found a 1952) as real evidence for an unproven "The Complete Idiot's Guide to.. .." surprisingly skeptical tteatment of unex­ phenomenon like pyramid power? There are several series of these sorts plained phenomena. Occam's razor doesn't need sharpening of how-to or introductory books, Using the now-typical format of slick with pyramid power. including the "For Dummies" guides stock photos, cutesy cartoons, and color­ This is perhaps the most frustrating and the "K.I.S.S.: Keep It Simple ful illustrations, author Joel Levy covers a thing about the book: It frequently Series." These guides have apparendy svide variety of topics, divided into four arrives at rational, skeptical conclusions been a publishing gold mine. At first the sections: Mind (ESP, , etc.); (albeit at times equivocal ones), but in books focused mostly on technical mat­ Spirit (ghosts, spiritualism, die occult, the process it also makes incomplete or ters that one actually did need expert etc.); Natural Mysteries (dowsing, pyra­ dubious statements. In several places guidance for, such as computers and mid power, Bigfoot, etc.); and Aliens & Levy writes that a certain piece of evi­ home repair. But soon any topic at all UFOs (Roswell, abductions, etc.). dence has "never been proven fake." He was grist for the idiot mill, resulting in There may have been a few uncom­ states this about several things, includ­ books like The Complete Idiot's Guide to fortable moments around the pub­ ing stigmatic Padre Pio's bleeding Spirituality for Teens and Guide to lisher's conference table as the series wounds and the 1967 Patterson Bigfoot Making Money Through Intuition. producers looked over the manuscript film. Levy is correct, but the implication (SKEPTICAL INQUIRER published a and saw the skeptical comments is that the burden of proof lies with review of The Complete Idiot's Guide to therein. For example. Levy correctly skeptics to prove diat evidence is faked, Being Psychic in SI 23 [5], September/ notes that tests of astrology "have given when in fact it is the claimant who must October 1999.) almost entirely negative results," and, prove the evidence is real. There are a lot of things I know litdc as for feng shui, "careful research has There is a fundamental and insur­ or nothing about, but I'm not keen to cast doubt on the existence of ley lines" mountable problem widi this sort of "keep announce my idiot status to fellow (which Levy ties in with feng shui). it simple" approach to die unexplained: These conclusions might be disconcert­ shoppers at Barnes and Noble (or, none of die topics are simple. If die expla­ ing to the authors of other books in die preferably, a small independent book­ nations (bodi for and against) paranormal K.I.S.S. catalog on astrology and feng store), or those who may pass by my phenomena were simple, then the phe­ shui. We are reminded that publishers bookshelves. I have flipped through the nomena would most likely be explained. are not arbiters of truth but instead are guides on occasion, just to see what the In diis field it is especially true that, as they happy to sell books endorsing opposite idiots were reading, but never spent say, die devil is in die details. By Keeping sides of an argument. much time on them. So when I came It Simple (or making it for Complete across the K.I.S.S. Guide to the On the whole Levy seems to accept Idiots), discussion of paranormal topics is Unexplained, I was about to toss the skeptical explanations, and steers the oversimplified and reduced to die equiva­ reader away from and lent of textual sound-bites. Important Benjamin Radford is a writer and toward scientific answers. The book points and caveats are lost or glossed over Managing Editor of the SKEPTICAL includes a short section on die Satanic in favor of a quick blurb. INQUIRER. abuse scare and false memory syn­

52 November/December 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER BOOK REVIEWS

Another facet in any book on unex­ "unexplained" topics; not all will be the far too short for a subject of this size. The plained phenomena is the inclusion of absolute truth or final word, of course, Committee for the Scientific Investiga­ topics that, by die authors own admis­ but skeptics can and do report what the tion of Claims of the Paranormal is sion, are in fact explained. One clear scientific method reveals about strange briefly mentioned, as is SKEPTICAL example is the pho­ happenings. The question is whether INQUIRER, though Levy cites James tographs, in which two English girls took believers will accept those explanations. Randi as being CSICOP's highest profile photographs of paper cutouts of illus­ The promise made on the first page, member; in fact Randi hasn't been part of trated fairies and claimed die fairies were that "by the end of the book, you'll be the organization since 1991. real and visited them. Sir Arthur Conan an expert yourself!" is clearly wrong. It's hard to heartily recommend this Doyle, among many others, believed the (Fortean Times editor Bob Rickard, in K.I.S.S. Guide, though hard to really girls and the photographs. This is not to his foreword, sensibly reminds readers condemn it either. Given the wide say that such books should exclude solved to "be wary of anyone calling himself an range of topics Levy had to survey (and mysteries; indeed, it is instructive to see expert in the unknown; there aren't the very short space in which to sum­ how other people, many more learned any.") Entire books have been written marize it), he has done a good job of that we are, were fooled by their percep­ about each topic, and to have anything presenting the skeptical view. This tions or assumptions. but the most superficial understanding book is ostensibly for the lay reader, But it does raise the question of requires more than the three or four and if a curious reader is going to read when something is explained, and to short sentences Levy affords. an introduction to the unexplained, whose satisfaction. Many of the topics The guide includes an index, a glos­ this book is certainly better than most presented here (and in other books) sary, a list of Web sites, relevant maga­ of its ilk. Given the popular appeal of have been explained. Skeptics have zines (including diis one), and organiza­ the book, on balance the book's credits explanations for most or all of the tions. The book reference list is good but outweigh its debits. Q SCIENCE BEST SELLERS Top Ten Best Sellers in Mew York

Authentic Happiness: Using the Guns, Germs, and Steel: New Positive Psychology to The Fates of Human Realize Your Potential for Societies Lasting Fulfillment Jared Diamond Martin E.P. Seligman W.W. Norton and Co. Free Press Merriam-Webster's Collegiate A Mind at a Time Dictionary 2 Mel Levine Merriam-Webster, Inc. Simon & Schuster The Universe in a Nutshell A New Kind of Science 8 Stephen Hawking 3 Stephen Wolfram Bantam Doubleday Dell Wolfram Media The Art of War Fast Food Nation: Sun Tzu, Samuel B. Griffith 4 The Dark Side of the Oxford University Press Ail-American Meal Seeing in the Dark: How Backyard Eric Schlosser Stargazers Are Probing Deep Space Houghton Mifflin 10 and Guarding Earth from On the Shoulders of Giants Interplanetary Peril Stephen Hawking (Editor) Timothy Ferris Running Press Simon & Schuster

By arrangement with Amazon.com, September 2002.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/Decembc 2002 53 NEW BOOKS, ETC.

Listing does not preclude future review. ized academic research on everyday human to skeptics are tracks such as "Skeptic" (sam­ judgment. Their central idea was that judg­ ple lyric: "your astral projections are coming Denying Evolution: ment under uncertainty often rests on a lim­ along / your chakra and chi are both growing Creationism, Scientism, ited number of simplifying heuristics rather real strong / your cold disappeared after nine and the Nature of Sci­ than extensive algorithmic processing. This short days / thanks to the words on the whole ence. Massimo Pigli- book is intended as an update or successor earth displays") and "Speak to You," which ucci. Sinauer Assoc­ to the influential 1982 book on the subject challenges TV mediums such as John Edward iates, Sunderland, MA Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and who claim to speak to the dead. Why, he asks, 01375. 2002. ISBN 0- Biases, by Kahneman, Slovic, and Tversky. would dead loved ones only speak to their 87893-659-9. 275 pp. Each of the contributions is connected to grieving relatives through a fast-talking, glitzy $24.95, softcover. A this heuristics and biases approach to the medium in a television studio? valuable fresh look at study of judgment under uncertainty. Much Trying to describe the "sound" of Hrab's the evolution-creation controversy by a has happened in the field since 1982, and music is pointless, so I'll just pass on how he young evolutionary biologist immersed not the editors say this book is an attempt to describes it: "a bizarre amalgamation some­ only in evolution but also in the philosophy capture many of the most important contri­ times described as rock-folk-rap-jazz-fusion- of science and education. He labels creation­ butions and developments. Forty-two prog-acoustic-funk-hiphop-world-classical- ists "those who deny evolution," much in the papers—some pre-existing, some new—by pop-retro-electronic-fat free music." For what sense of holocaust-denyers. He insightfully seventy-three contributors deal with such that's worth. examines creationism as a form of anti- topics as the conjunction fallacy in proba­ The fourteen tracks include "Monkey intellectualism, showing its historical roots. bility judgment, sympathetic magical think­ Hip Dysplasia," "Cruel Spines," "Simple He also criticizes scientists for focusing solely ing, compatibility effects in judgment and Simian," and "Shoe." Of the best non- on research rather than helping improve choice, probability judgment across cul­ skeptical songs, "I Want a Nun" is a sopho- textbooks and education, ignoring the anti- tures, the dilemma of unrealistic optimism, moric, sacreligious gem in the vein of Frank evolutionists rather than engaging and con­ two systems of reasoning, the hot hand in Zappa, and "B3: brainsbodyboth" describes fronting them, and presenting a somewhat basketball, and one, by Gilovich and the quest for women who are not just beau­ misleading, overextended picture of the Savitsky, that appeared originally in SI, tiful but intelligent as well. Ovetall worth a reach of science (scientism) to the media and "Like Goes with Like: The Role of listen for skeptics and the curious alike. public. He uses his broad and deep knowl­ Representativeness in Erroneous and On the other end edge to dissect creationist arguments and Pseudoscientific Beliefs." of the spectrum, sort reveal creationist fallacies, including recent of, is Jim Richard­ manifestations in the "intelligent design" XTL: Extraterrestrial Life and How to son's Gonzo Science movement and other major claims and com­ find It. Simon Goodwin with John (Earthology Records, ponents of the evolution-denial controversy. Gribbin. Cassell & Co., Wellington 2001), a CD which, House, 125 Strand, London WC2R 0BB, according to the cov­ Duelling Idiots and Other Probability United Kingdom. 2001. ISBN 0-304-358- er, offers "science heresies, rogue paradigms, Puzzlers. Paul J. Nahin. Princeton 975. 191 pp. $29.95, hardcover. Excellent, and phat beats." The songs are mostly University Press, 41 William Street, beautifully illustrated science book explor­ Richardson giving short, quasi-rhythmic, Princeton, NJ 08540. 2002. ISBN 0-691- ing the possibility of, as well as the condi­ quasi-logical expositions on various paranor­ tions necessary for, life on other planets. 10286-4. 280 pp. $18.95, softcover. Twenty- mal topics, backed by what are apparendy the The authors, both astronomers and writers, one probability problems by a professor who aforementioned "phat beats." say they hope to provide readers with the teaches the subject. None have appeared in Tracks include "Down With the Big background information to enable them to print before, to his knowledge, at least in this Bang," "MoFo Aquatic Ape," "Crypto- participate fully in the excitement of the form. Although conceptually not difficult, search for extraterrestrial life (XTL) over zoology," "Carl Sagan: Buzzhound," and he nevertheless considers them in a group of the next few years. Main chapters cover our "Debunking the Skeptics." One of the best, "more challenging, more interesting" prob­ home in space, planet beyond, probability or at least most listenable, is "So You've Seen lems. Examples: The curious case of the of life, homes from home, and searching the Virgin Mary," a somewhat tongue-in- snowy birthdays, a different slice of proba­ for civilizations. cheek account of Virgin Mary sightings bilistic pi, the blind spider and the fly, and around the world. when negativity is a no-no. Richardson seems firmly planted in —Kendrick Frazier heretical science, with a perhaps too-open Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of mind. Along the way he takes some select Intuitive Judgment. Edited by Thomas straw man swipes at skeptics, with bald state­ Gilovich, Dale W. Griffin, and Daniel ments such as, "In their zeal to defend the Kahneman. Cambridge University Press, Only rarely docs a music compact disc pop mundane, skeptics have developed a patho­ 40 West 20th Street, New York, NY 10111- up with any real relevance to skeptics, logical aversion to the anomalous." If listen­ 4211. 2002. ISBN 0-521-79260-6. 857 pp. though not one but two recent recordings ing to a chipmunk voice discuss the criteria $110, hardcover. Is your case strong enough found their way to our offices. of adequacy—and warn you about the fal­ to go to trial? Will interest rates go up? Can George Hrab's release Vitriol (Geologic lacy of the appeal to tradition—sounds like I trust this person? In the late 1960s and Records, 2001) combines warped humor fun, this is your CD. early 1970s a series of papers by Amos with clever lyrics and a decidedly skeptical / Tversky and Daniel Kahneman revolution­ rationalist point of view. Of particular interest —Benjamin Radford

54 November/December 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER FORUM

Unintelligent Design

PAUL GILES

y now we've all heard the theory chutzpah. After hours put forward by proponents of of research on the B"intelligent design." It's the Internet and twice that proposition that some being of infinite long trying to rid my com­ intelligence, supreme power, and, I can puter of pop-up ads and only assume, massive ego created our unbidden pornographic universe and the life in it. They're not Web pages, I came to the saying this being is God, but the job only logical conclusion: description implies there are no other If there was any sort of serious candidates for the position, plan for everything, it needing just the qualification "only was the most unintelli­ those of unfathomable mystery and a gent design possible, worse deep, booming voice need apply" to even than, say, a televange- clinch the deal. list's hairstyle.

X«

universe, and getting farther every sec­ Let's examine intelligent design's two Recently serious consideration has ond? Puh-lease! How are we supposed to major premises. First is the belief that been given by the State Board of get there when Brenda has set the cos­ this all-powerful, all-knowing being Education of Ohio, where I currently mic speed limit below that of light? who is not God (to avoid sexism let's call live, to include intelligent design in the That's not very good planning. Even this entity Brenda) created the universe science curriculum, making Ohio the nearby Andromeda, the closest galaxy to specifically to make it hospitable for life. latest battleground in the war between our own Milky Way, is 2.2 million light- Intelligent design proponents call this evolution and creationism. Since these years away, one heck of a long commute. the anthropic principle. Fair enough. camouflaged creationists were creeping If he started today, Dick Clark would up so close to home, I decided to exam­ Brenda creates the heavens and the ine intelligent design in the same man­ I -ii ill. But how intelligent is her cosmo- ner as its proponents. That is, widiout logical design? Not very. For one thing, Paul Giles is a humorist, speaker, and any scientific proof or peer review but everything is too far away. Fourteen bil­ comedy writer. He can be contacted at with a healthy dose of imagination and lion light-years to the edge of the [email protected].

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 2002 55 FORUM

look old at the end of the trip. on the cheap, thinking no one would be about his fertility, and enduring no pain Within our immediate neighborhood the wiser, like some sleazy, fly-by-night greater than the slight inconvenience of things don't improve much. The nearest home improvement company or gov­ being told by his wife how he should try star to our sun is Proxima Centauri, 4.3 ernment contractor? I'd say she was carrying all that extra, unbalanced light-years distant, with no rest stops, gas indifferent at best. The design of Homo weight around on a bipedal body with­ stations, or convenience stores between sapiens is extremely unintelligent. out falling down. Now if Brenda was an intelligent designer, we'd reproduce asexually. The If we were designed by Brenda then a class action advantages are clear. There'd be no stigma consumer lawsuit should be filed immediately for to being an unwed mother since we'd all be unwed mothers. No one would have damages, both real and punitive. She should be to worry about not having a date on New made to correct all our defects, issue an apology, Year's Eve because we'd each be die object of our own desire. There would be no and promise to stay out of the creation business. controversy over cloning since we'd all be able to make exact genetic copies of our­ selves, and how many of us haven't at one­ the two. To make it even more challeng­ Let's look at the facts. To begin with time or another thought, "This world ing, there's no air ... in my opinion a we're bipedal. That means when we're would be a much better place if everyone very serious oversight. young we fall down a lot. And when was just like me?" Our own solar system, while rela­ we're old we fall down a lot. I'm neither, Fourth, who but sadistic automobile tively compact, is still a traveler's night­ and I fell down twice yesterday. When and computer manufacturers would mare. It takes our fastest probes years to we're not falling down we're very slow, design a creature with so much built-in reach the outer planets, and once we get unable to outrun predators even with obsolescence? We get sick, we grow bald, there we find frozen rocks or giant balls $300 athletic shoes. In the upright posi­ we get fat, we lose our visual acuity, our of gas. Even with a bit of elbow grease, tion we're constantly banging our heads teeth fall out, our skins sag, our bones new curtains, and a lot of redecorating on door jams and tree limbs and any­ become brittle, our sexual performance advice from the Home and Garden thing else above the level of better fades (which wouldn't matter if we were Network we still wouldn't want to set up designed quadrupeds. No, bipedal was asexual, by the way), our brains shrink, housekeeping on Neptune or Saturn. not the smart way to go. our arteries clog, our senses dull, our The inner planets are almost as Second, we can't breathe water. Why memory becomes unreliable, and then inhospitable. Mars may only be friendly is that important? Think about it—what our children stop visiting us. If we were to microbial life. Venus is caught in an lunatic would make us so we can only designed by Brenda then a class action endless loop of a runaway greenhouse breathe oxygen, then put us on a planet consumer lawsuit should be filed imme­ effect, and Mercury's surface tempera­ which is 75 percent water? Hello? diately for damages, both real and puni­ ture is over 420 degrees Celsius, Anybody home in there? Brenda gave us tive. She should be made to correct all although they say it's a dry heat. For us, a useless organ like the appendix, but our defects, issue an apology, and at least in the foreseeable future. Earth is couldn't throw in a couple rows of gills? promise to stay out of the creation busi­ our only home. I'd have to say the All knowing, indeed. ness for a period of five billion years, design of our universe is not only unin­ Third, there's the problem of sexual and then only under the watchful eye of telligent, it's cosmo-illogical. reproduction. Requiring two people to a governing board of experts in the field. The second major premise of intelli­ make offspring is so inefficient. And Lastly and most tellingly in the argu­ gent design is that life, especially Homo painful. And messy. Sexual reproduction ment against intelligent design is the sapiens, is too complex to have just hap­ breeds not only children, it breeds fact that we think. We experiment, we pened. It was to produce us that Brenda resentment. As my wife is always quick discover, we theorize, we extrapolate, we supposedly used die lion's share of her to point out, die male's contribution to predict based on our observations. If we wisdom and power. But are we any bet­ the process is insignificant, can be really were die result of a master plan, ter than if we had "just happened?" accomplished in just a few minutes, and Brenda would have made us unthink- Were we built from the best blueprint? unfortunately usually is. The female ing, so we could never doubt her exis­ Did the builder even bodier to look at then spends die next nine months in tence. Intelligent design? Hardly. At the plans before starting work? And did discomfort awaiting the birth. The least not until I can breadie under water she use the finest materials available, or male, on the other hand, blithely gets on with my very own gills. did she underbid widi an eye to buying widi his life of drinking beer, bragging ©2002 Paul Giles.

56 November/December 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER FORUM

It's a Good Thing Cows Can't Fly in Mobile

RALPH ESTLING

gentleman from Mobile, Ala­ dien they reply yes, of course diey bama, airmails a letter in which are right, how could it be other­ Ahe "feels compelled" to tell me wise? The logic that underlies this is that "sadly" (why sadly? He seems rather not absolutely clear to me. pleased about it) I know little about sci­ It also seems to me that people do ence and nothing about physics. altogether too much preaching. I am Unfortunately for this cogent percep­ impatient with people whose sole con­ tion he then goes on to give his own cern with ideas is to preach their own, telling insights—not into my ignorance, having no interest in learning anything. where hcd be on pretty safe ground— I'm not condemning them for not but into his very own grasp of physics. wishing to learn anything from me, At that point his letter suffers a blow I'm condemning them for not wishing from which it never really recovers. But to learn anything from anybody. die man from Mobile serves a useful So, as I don't like preaching, let me purpose, if not the one he intends, for proclaim that I believe physics must re­ he got me to diinking about thinking flect (as far as humanly possible) under­ and what we and our physicists do with lying reality, for otherwise it isn't physics it and to it. but a sort of intellectual mush, a physics It seems to me that the most impor­ of make-believe and let's-pretend. I'm tant difference between a good thinker sorry if this sounds dogmatic but there's in general and a good scientist in partic­ a point where dogmatism is called for, ular, on the one hand, and a bad or we drown in the swamp of rela­ tivism, with its neither fJiisness nor thinker, bad scientist, philosophers, ^kKoHtaX-'^^nrer metaphysicians, theologians, paranor- thatness but just a great amorphous blob malists, and True Believers, on the other, of anything-you-likeness, which means is that a good thinker and a good scien­ an end to all possible search for reality in Universe in a Nutshell, Stephen tist spend a lot of their time and effort the universe and a descent into the hell Hawking writes that as a positivist "die checking to see if they could be wrong, of pseudo- and quasi-science. The uni­ question 'Do extra dimensions really while all of die others haven't the wit to verse is complicated enough without our exist?' has no meaning. All one can ask realize diat I) you can be wrong; and 2) creating even more, and unnecessary, is whether mathematical models with if you are it's much better to discover obscurity, obscurantism, and opaque­ extra dimensions provide a good this yourself, rather than having some­ ness, and please, do not confuse rela­ description of the universe." one else do so. Not so with bad thinkers. tivism with relativity. Positivism has its beginnings in the Bad thinkers are too busy preaching to The grinning ape that leers back at us late eighteenth century widi Immanuel take time out to ask themselves if their each time we gaze into a mirror is telling little homily is on track or not. If some­ us something and we ought to listen. Our frequent columnist Ralph Estling one else has the temerity to ask them. In his latest book for die masses, The writes from Ilminster, Somerset, England.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 2002 57 FORUM

Kant's diktat that we can never hope to Positivists such as Hawking tell us any other scientists are prone to take up know the "thing-in-itself," the actual that reality cannot be dealt with or even a perfectly possible hypothesis (if it nature of reality. The best we can ever comprehended, therefore we can only weren't perfectly possible it could not be do, and our best is none too good, is deal with what we can measure in some a hypothesis) and expound on it until acquire some vague inklings through the way. At first glance this seems like emi­ they too begin the alliterative descent of obscuring and distorting filters of our nently sensible or at least practical slippery slopes when, rather suddenly, five senses, and our understanding must advice, until we watch as our physicists the perfectly possible first is transmogri­ therefore be greatly diminished. By the slowly slide down the slippery slopes of fied into the probable and then, hey, end of the nineteenth century all man­ solipsism where they tell us that only the presto, into the highly likely, all this ner of mechanical aides were available to measurable is real, only the measurable without a shred of real, palpable evi­ extend our senses, especially that of can truly be said to exist. If you can't dence to call its own. Physics at the start sight, far beyond their natural, very lim­ count it or weigh it, then it's not there. of the twenty-first century is chock-a- ited range, so that, for example, the This is quite another matter, one not so block with all kinds of wondrous specu­ entire electromagnetic spectrum, from eminendy sensible at first or any number lations about the underlying nature of radio waves to gamma rays, and not of glances. But it bedevils physics and that reality which we can never really merely the narrow band of visible light, until its dead hand is lifted from it, discern, and the number grows almost could be detected, studied, and under­ physics (or rather, physicists) will con­ daily. So, what have we, or they, in the stood. Other devices were being tinue to insist that vitally important way of evidence? Well, they have math­ invented and developed so that for the questions have "no meaning" and that ematical models. Thank you very much first time in human history the begin­ the best we can do is play with mathe­ but I'm afraid that does not quite answer ning of a real insight into the nature of matical models. God's litde helpers, the my question. And my fear grows that the universe was now a possibility. mathematicians, do indeed perform physicists are playing games, some of Oddly, just at this time, just as our abil­ absolutely necessary work in physics. them a lot of fun, no doubt, but I'm not ity to discern something of things-in- Without them you couldn't have physics. sure this is what physics should be, or at themselves was burgeoning, the philo­ But if you let them take over and run any rate should limit itself to. sophical pasture of positivism suddenly with the ball, oh boy, can you get die For I can't help believing (call me a took root among many physicists. I wrong number! For mathematicians deal hopeless fool) that there is a real world don't know why and perhaps somebody with an ideal world, one that cannot pos­ out there and that what we see and can enlighten me for it seems a remark­ sibly exist, and this puts a definite limit study is part of it. ably perverse step. Quantum mechanics to its range of real-life possibilities. As to that other world, the world of certainly gave positivism a big boost but Possibilities are themselves another positivists, well, what can we say except QM came later, it was not the cause of source of problems for physicists. It that it's a good thing cows and positivists fin-de-sie'cle positivism. seems to me that physicists more than can't fly. In Mobile, or anywhere else. LJ

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58 November/December 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER FOLLOW-UP

Econometric Modeling, Guns, and Murder Statistics

JOHN R. LOTT, JR.

In this Follow-Up column submission economist John R. Lott, Jr. responds to criticisms of his research using an econometric model to conclude that allowing citizens to carry concealed weapons deters violent crimes without increasing accidental deaths. The criticisms were in one section (pp. 20-21) of the article "Myths of Murder and Multiple Regression," by Ted Goertzel, SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, January/February 2002, Vol. 26 No. 1. Following that Ted Goertzel responds.

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oertzel's main claim that my 'i\ttkt* IP research "had no data for die G major cities" is simply not a serious statement. The second edition of my book published in 2000 examined data for cities from Philadelphia to Houston to Dallas to Atlanta to Pittsburgh to Miami to Phoenix. Twenty states adopted right- to-carry laws during die 1977 to 1996 that adopt diese laws later. There are sev­ period. Even in die data from 1977 to eral different issues here. First, the regres­ 1994 in the first edition (published sions used in this book have attempted to (pp. 151-152 in second edition). 1998), there were many of the same set control for many differences that can "The son of state diat passes a 'shall of major urban areas. Many of my esti­ explain the level of crime (for example, issue' law in the 1980s is apt to be the mates in both editions specifically exam­ income, poverty, unemployment, popu­ same kind of place where ordinary citi­ ined how die drop in crime varied across lation and population density, demo­ zens carrying concealed firearms might urban areas. 1 don't know how he could graphic characteristics, law enforcement, claim to have discovered that "no" urban not be regarded as a major problem even other gun laws). Admittedly, even my areas were covered by the research. before die iaw changed. . . . Idaho is not long list of variables does not pick up all It is also wrong to claim that the states die same sort of place diat New York is, die differences between states, which is adopting right-to-carry laws have primar­ and diere seem to be systematic differ­ the reason that a variable is added for ily been "largely in die South, die West." ences between states that change stan­ each individual county or state to pick For example, most of New England has dards for concealed weapons and diose up the average differences in crime rates diese laws (Maine, New Hampshire, and diat do not." (Franklin Zimring and across places. Individual time trends are Connecticut, and Vermont has no regu­ Gordon Hawkins. "Concealed-handgun also allowed for each state. lations at all). By die end of 1996, permits: The case of the counterfeit Yet despite all these attempts to con­ twenty-eight states had had these laws in deterrent." The Responsive Community, trol for variables some caution is still in effect for at least one full year and diey Spring 1997, pp. 50 and 51.) order—especially when dealing with are from all parts of die country. Just because we observe a drop in As to the second quote by Zimring crime for diose states that have enacted and Hamkins, I had a long discussion of diese laws does not by itself imply that we John Lott, Jr. is author of More Guns, this quote in both editions of my book will observe die same effect in odier states Less Crime (2002).

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 2002 59 FOLLOW-UP areas that are particularly extreme along Of course my work specifically the research period. Looking at the these dimensions that do not have obvi­ accounted for the factors noted by trends, it was apparent that the "right- ous counterparts in areas with nondis- Goertzel in terms of NRA membership, to-carry" laws had no discernible cretionary laws. One obvious compari­ geographic location, demographics, impact. This graph, and several others, son would be New York City. While the political affiliation, population density, are available in a paper at http:// regression results show that the largest etc. in trying to explain what states crab.rutgers.edu/-goertzel/. I urge any­ population and most densely populated adopted the laws. one who has any doubts about die issue areas gain the most from nondiscre- As to "crack-related homicides," I to look at that paper; there is not space tionary laws, there is always the possibil­ did not ignore this issue. Among other for me to reproduce the graphs in SI. ity that relationship changes for popula­ factors, I tried to account for variables John Lott argues that his work tion and density values above which we such as cocaine prices (e.g., pp. 279- "accounted for" the factors that I men­ have yet to be able to measure. To date, 80, fn. 8 and pp. 30203, fn. 86). tioned such as NRA membership, geo­ the fourth and fifth largest cities in the It is not clear why Goertzel would graphic location, and demographics. country now have these laws (Houston review my work and act as if I had not Of course, he is aware of and discusses and Philadelphia) and additional experi­ written anything on these points. these factors, especially in the second ence with large cities may help deter­ edition of his book. The point of my mine whether these laws would be Indeed in discussion we had I noted all paper, however, was that the method equally useful in a city like New York. If these points to him, even if he had he uses— multiple regression—is sim­ one were skeptical about the effects in missed them in reading my research, ply not able to "account for" factors in large cities, the laws should first be though he did not see fit either to this way, at least not with real world changed in Los Angeles and Chicago. acknowledge my responses or rewrite data about social problems. This is not what he had done. a new observation on my part, it has A second issue was whether diere is been widely recognized by specialists somediing unique about states that John R. Lott, Jr. in research methodology. In a recent adopted nondiscretionary laws, and [email protected] technical report, the distinguished sta­ whether that characteristic caused diem tistician David Freedman states that to adopt the law and also to reduce prob­ "causal relationships cannot be lems possibly faced from adoption. For Ted Goertzel Replies inferred from a data set by running example, if local legislators had special to John Lott regressions unless there is substantial information that the citizens in their state prior knowledge about the mecha­ were unique in how well diey could be When I started working on John Lott's nisms that generated the data." (The trusted with concealed handguns, it data set, I decided to do what research report is available at www.stat.berke would have led these few states to pass methods textbooks universally advise: ley.edu/-census/601 .pdf.) the law and have little difficulty with it. It graph the trends to look for nonlinear could then "falsely" appear that nondis­ patterns before attempting any complex With prior knowledge of the issue, cretionary law are generally successful. statistical manipulations. I couldn't one can explain Lott's findings quite Such an argument may have been plausi­ graph the trends for every county, so I easily: "right-to-carry" laws were passed bly put forward at one time, but the force decided to start with the ten largest in states that were not the center of the of the argument has declined as such cities in die country. These cities were cocaine-related homicide epidemic, so large and varied areas are now covered by central to the homicide epidemic, yet I their crime rates were lower on average the laws. Equally important is the fact found that none of them had enacted than those in states that did not pass that not all jurisdictions have willingly "right-to-carry" laws during the period such laws. Of course Lott is aware adopted these laws. Many urban areas covered in die analysis. There was sim­ of this problem, if only because crit­ such as Atlanta and Philadelphia fought ply no variation in Lott's key causal vari­ ics have pointed it out to him. In strongly against the laws, but lost out to a able for these cities, which meant that the 2000 edition of his book More coalition of rural and suburban represen­ regression analysis could not show any­ Guns, Less Crime he concedes that tatives. Philadelphia's opposition was so thing about its effects there. This was his critics' "concern over cocaine- or strong diat when Pennsylvania's nondis­ nowhere mentioned in his book. Next, I crack-induced crime is surely a legiti­ cretionary law was first passed graphed the trends in five counties that mate one," and that "it is difficult to Philadelphia was partially exempted. had enacted "right-to-carry" laws during directly measure the violence-inducting

60 November/December 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER FOLLOW-UP influence of cocaine or crack." (pp. period when the cocaine-related homi­ ence. Scientists who have based dieir 213-214). He then attempts to deal cide epidemic was most acute. careers on a particular dieory or method with the problem by introducing Lott is a true believer in a research are often unable to accept its failure. cocaine prices as a variable in his mul­ mediod that simply cannot do what he tiple regression analysis. Bui no wants it to do. Faced widi criticism, he Ted Goertzel amount of statistical manipulation can simply runs more regressions and stu­ Department of Sociology compensate for the fact that he simply diously avoids die more fundamental Rutgers University had no data on the effects of "right-to- methodological issue. This is not an Camden, NJ 08102. carry" laws in the big cities during the unfamiliar pattern in the history of sci- [email protected]

Response to The High Cost of Skepticism'

STANLEY BERENT

write in response to "The High Cost the IRBMED (Medical School Institu- beyond the IRBMED Chair, knew of Skepticism" by Carol Tavris iioii.i! Review Board) and its chait in iiodiiug about its release lo odiei par­ I(July/August 2002). The article is a 1998 to address the Committee's con­ ties, and cannot speak to the actions of piece of advocacy, not analysis or even cerns about the Guyer application and those who released it. investigative journalism. As die author to list issues and implications presented • My memo specifically suggested candidly admits, for instance, she is a by that application. The charge to me that Guyer be asked to comment on the friend to both Loftus and Guyer, and was made after die entire committee had issues it raised about his research. she never contacted "administrators or investigators to get 'their side'" before writing her story. Nevertheless, the story As the author candidly admits, she is a has die capacity to create misimpres- friend to both Loftus and Guyer, and sions (and contains some outright errors) about me and my work. I write she never contacted "administrators or to correct them. investigators to get 'their side.'" My Memorandum to the University of Michigan IRB discussed the matter, and reflected die • It is not correct diat my memo Tavris implies that 1 wrote an unfair group's concerns about die work and "excoriated Mel Guyer," as Tavris memo about Guyer's IRB (Institutional further questions the committee felt wrote, nor was it harsh or "filled with Review Board) application and that I needed to be addressed. This was a com­ false innuendo, malicious insinua­ played some role in "keeping it secret." mittee decision, not mine. tions, and outright falsities" as Guyer The audior has not quoted from die • It should be mentioned that regard­ has suggested. The memorandum was memo, choosing instead to use Guyer's less of how the Guyer project was even­ fact-based, written in good faith, and somewhat inflammatory characteriza­ tually classified, it was presented in in direct response to inquiries raised tion of it. I have never disclosed the con­ 1998 at the IRBMED review meeting as by the University's IRBMED. Con­ tents of the memo outside die IRB, and a "research" project. sistent with die assignment to me by do not intend to so now, but I am con­ • The memo I prepared in response the Committee, I addressed the strained to make die following points: was a draft, internal work intended only • The memo did not reflect some to go to die IRBMED Chair, and was Stanley Berent, Ph.D., is a professor of psy­ spontaneous action on my part. Rather, designated as "confidenrial." I had no chology at the University of Michigan, I was asked as a committee member by pan in the dissemination of the memo Ann Arbor.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/Decembei 2002 61 shroud claims, Nickell I The star of Bethlehem. Gardner. FILL IN THE GAPS IN YOUR SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 1999 (vol. 23, no. 5): Special Report: Flashl Fox news reports aliens may have built the pyramids, Carrier I Where do we come from?, Pigliucci I Profits and prophecy, Wise / Projective mea­ Skeptical Inquirer COLLECTION sures of personality and psychopathology: How well • 15% discount on orders of $100 or more • do they work?, Lilienfeld I What every skeptic ought to know about subliminal persuasion. Epley. Savitsky, • $6.25 a copy. Vols. 1-18 ($5.00 Vols. 19-25). To order, use reply card insert • and Kachelski I Cairl o I Castaneda and New Age anthropology, Gardner. JULY/AUGUST 1999 (vol 23, no. 4): Special Issue: SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2002 (vol 26, no. 5): Special of children's beha . Fiorello I Bertrand Russell and Science and Religion, eceptiveness. Hare I CSICOP 25th Anniversary Conflict or Conciliation? Report: Circular Reasoning: The 'mystery" of crop circles critical Celebrating crc and their 'orbs' of light, Nickell. Fourth World Skeptics section From the editor's seat: 25 years of science and ition, flaymo / Should skeptical inquiry be applied to religion?, Kurtz I The 'Science and Conference Report / A skeptical look at September 11th, skeptic ;m. Kendrick Frazier I Science vs. pseudo- science, nonscience. and nonsense. Religion' move nent, Scott I Science and the versus of Chapman and Harris I Sheldrake's James Aicoc* / CSICOP timeline / Primal religion. Pafev?'t z / Science vs. religion, Pazameta I Crystals, van Genderen, Koene and scream: A persistent New Age therapy. Anthropic de ign, Stenger I Scientific skepticism, CSI­ Nienhuys I Teaching skepticism via the Gardner. COP. and the local groups. Novella and Bloomberg I CRITIC acronym, Bam I Skepticism under Two mind-sets. Allen I God is dead, after the weather the big sky, Schwinden. Engbrecht. MARCH/APRIL 2001 (vol 25. no. 2): and sports. Reiss I Whence religious belief?. Pinter I Mercer and Patterson I Why was The X- Darwin in mind, Edis I A bit confused, Non-overlapping magisteria. Goufd / You can't have it Files so appealing?, Goode / Winchester Roche /What can the paranormal teach both ways: Irreconcilable differences?, Dawkins I The mystery house, Nickell. us about consciousness?, Blackmore I concerns of science, Mayr I The religious views of JULY/AUGUST 2002 (vol. 26. no. 4): Spontaneous human confabulation, Stephen Gould and Charles Darwin, Gardner. Special Report: Alternative medicine and Nienhuys I Italy's version of Harry Houdini. Nisbet I A psychological case the White House commission, Gorski. MAY/JUNE 1999 (vol. 23. no. 3): Special Section: Urban of "demon' and 'alien' visitation, legends. The snuff film. Stine / Bitter harvest: The London I Special Section: Science and Reisnerl Distant healing and Elizabeth organ-snatching urban legends. Radford I Bigfoot's pseudoscience in Russia. Kurtz, Efremov. Targ. Gardner. KruglyakovlVJho abused Jane Doe? Part screen test. Daegling and Schmitt I Tracking Bigfoot 2, tortus and Guyer I The high cost of JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2001 (vol, 25. no. on the Internet. Zuefle I Statement analysis. Shearer I skepticism, Tavris I Graham Hancock's 1): Special Section: Issues in Alternative NAGPRA. science, and the demon-haunted world. shifting cataclysm. Brass / The Mad Gasser Medicine: Medicine wars, Seidman I Clark I Urine therapy. Gardner. of Mattoon. Ladendoriand Bartholomew/ Moscow mys­ Herbal medicines and dietary supple- MARCH/APRIL 1999 (vol. 23, no. 2): Special Report: teries, Nickell. ments, Allen / Psychoactive herbal medications, The ten-percent myth. Radford I Superstition and the Spinella I Chiropractic Homola I Damaged goods? regression effect. Kruger. Savitsky, and Gilovich I MAY/JUNE 2002 (vol. 26. no. 3): Who abused Jane Scienc nd child sexual i ibuse, Hagenl Special Report: Psychology of the seance, Wiseman I Dowsing and Doe? Pan 1, toftus and Guyer / Is the Mars Effect a Scienc ndicators 2000 / Facilitated communicatit archaeology, van Leusen I Hidden messages in DNA?, social effect?, Dean I Gray Barker's book of bunk. Gardner. Larhammar and Chatzidimitriou I The real Chief Sherwood / The king of quacks: Albert Abrams. M.D.. NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2000 (vol. 24. no. 6): The face Seattle was not a spiritual ecologist. Abruzzi I Joint Haines I Benny Hinn: Healer or hypnotist?. Nickell. behind the Face on Mars, Posner I The new paranat- pain and weather. Owe* / Acupressure, zone therapy, MARCH/APRIL 2002 (vol. 26, no. 2): Special Reports: ural paradigm, Kurtz / Francis Bacon and the true ends and reflexology, Gardner. Bioterrorism and alternative medicine. Arwood / of skepticism. Friedberg I Worlds in collision: Where JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1999 (vol. 23, no. 1): Special 'Mothman- solved! Nickell I Bigfoot at fifty, Radford I reality meets the paranormal, Radford I Why bad Report: Armageddon and the of doomsday. Cripplefoot hobbled. Daegling I in beliefs don't die. tester / Supernatural power and cul­ Fears of the apocalypse, Kurtz / The Bible and the ancient coins. Carrier I Are science and religion com­ tural evolution, Layng I The brutality of Dr. prophets of doom, tarue / Science and pseudoscience patible?. Kurtz I The emptiness of holism, Ruscio I Bettelheim, Gardner. in Russia. Kapitza I Testing dowsing: The failure of the Undercover among the spirits. Nickell. SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2000 (vol. 24. no. 5): Voodoo sci­ Munich experiments. Enright I A fallibilist among the JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2002 (vol. 26. no. 1): Myths of ence and the belief gene. Park / Rogerian Nursing cynics. Haac* / The internet: A world brain?. Gardner. murder and multiple regression. Goertzel I Education, Theory, Raskin I Sun sign columns. Dean and Mather I NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 1998 (vol. 22. no. 6): Gaps in scientific knowledge, and belief in the paranormal, The psychic staring effect. Marks and Colwell I the fossil record: A case study. Thomas I The Martian Goode / A university's struggle with chiropractic. Management of positive and negative responses in a Panic sixty years later Bartholomew! The perils of post- DeRobertis I Snaring the Fowler: Mark Twain debunks spiritualist medium consultation. Greasley I The laws of hockery. Ruscio / May the force be with you. Krauss / phrenology, Lopez I Three skeptics' debate tools nature: A skeptic's guide. Pazameta I Special Report: The Mead-Freeman controversy: A fresh look: Much examined. Caso I Mickey Mouse discovers the 'real' On ear cones and candles, Kaushalland Kaushalll Little ado about nothing The 'Fateful Hoaxing' of Margaret Atlantis. Hardersen I Atlantis behind the myth. Red Riding Hood, Gardner. Mead. C6te I Margaret Mead. Derek Freeman, and the Christopher 110th European Skeptics Congress report. JULY/AUGUST 2000 (vol. 24, 4): Thought Field issue of evolution. Shankman I Second World Skeptics Mahner I Voodoo in New Orleans. Nickell I Some Therapy: Can we really tap r problems away?, Congress: Science and reason, foibles and fallacies, and thoughts on induction. Gardner. Gaudiano and Herbert I Absolute skepticism equals doomsdays / Science and the unknowable, Gardner. dogmatism, Bunge I Did a close < ounter of the third SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 1998 (vol. 22. no. 5): Special NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2001 (vol. 25. no. 6): A cri­ kind occur on a Japanese be. ith in 1803?. Ti Section: What are the chances?. tique of Schwartz et al.'s after-death communication Rethinking the dancing man a. Sarth- Coincidences: Remarkable or random?, studies. Wiseman and O'Keeffe I Magical thinking in olomew I Has science educatioi become Martin I Numerology: Comes the revolu­ complementary and alternative medicine. Stevens / an enemy of scientific rational ty?. Ede I tion. Dudley I Calculated risks. Cole I Educational malpractice. Moore I Philosophers and Krakatene: Explosive pseudoscii >nce from How to study weird things. Thxco / Why psychics: The Vandy episode. Oldfield I CSICOP 25th the Czech Academy of science Slanina I would people not believe weird things?. Anniversary section: The origins and evolution of CSI­ David Bohm and Krishnamurti, Gardner Anderson I Starkle. starkle, little twink, COP, Wisoet / Never a dull moment, Karr I John MAY/JUNE 2000 (vol. 24, no. 3): Special Hayes / Of planets and cognitions: The Edward: Hustling the bereaved. Nickell I Ernest Report: The new bogus MJ-12 docu­ use of deductive inference In the natural Hemingway and Jane, Gardner. ments. Mass / Mass delusions and hyste­ sciences and psychology. Schlinger Jr. I SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2001 (vol. 25, no. 5): Special rias of the past millennium, What's going on at Temple University?, Issue: Science and Religion 2001. Holy wars. Tyson I Bartholomew and Goode I Doomsday Gardner. The dangerous quest for cooperation between science fears at RHIC. Guiterrez I Save our sci­ and religion. Pandian I Design yes. intelligent no, ence: The struggle for rationality at a JULY/AUGUST 1998 (vol. 22. no. 4): Pigliucci I A way of life for agnostics?. Lovelock I French university, firocfl / Special Report: Mars Global Surveyor pho­ Science, religion, and the Galileo affair. Moy I The god Paraneuroscience?, Kirkland I Bohm's tographs 'Face on Mars'. Morrison I of falling bodies. Stenger / The relationship between guided wave theory. Gardner. Magnetic therapy. Plausible attraction. Livingston I Biomagnetic pseudoscience paranormal beliefs and religious beliefs. Sparks I MARCH/APRIL 2000 (vol. 24. no. 2): Risky and nonsense claims, Sabadell I Catching up with eigh­ Science and religion in an impersonal universe. Young business: Vividness, availability, and the media para­ teenth century science in the evaluation of therapeutic I Arthur C. Clarke's 'Credo.' Clarke I A designer uni­ dox. Ruscio I Physks and the paranormal. 1 Hooft / touch. Ball and Alexander I Paranormal depictions in the verse?, Weinberg I An evolutionary-genetic wager, Efficacy of prayer, Tessman and Tessman I Can we tell if media: How do they affect what people believe?. Sparks someone Is staring at us?. Baker / Assessing the quality Avise I Shroud of Turin scandals. Nickell I I Planting a seed of doubt Shneour I Essiac The not-so- of medical Web sites. Levi I The demon-haunted sen­ and blackberries. Gardner. remarkable cancer remedy. McCutcheon I Near-Earth tence. Byrne and Normand I Mad messiahs. Gardner. objects: Monsters of Doom?. Gardner. JULY/AUGUST 2001 (vol. 25. no. 4): Confronting vet­ JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2000 (vol. 24. no. 1): Special Report The ten outstanding skeptics of the twentieth erinary medical nonsense, Imrie I and the MAY/JUNE 1998 (vol. 22. no. 3) Special Section: The century / Two paranormalisms or two and a half?. law. Codes' Chevreul's report on the mysterious oscil­ Aliens Files. Abduction by aliens or sleep paralysis?, Goode / . Polidoro I The pseudoscience of lations of the hand-held pendulum. Spitz and Blackmore I Before Roswell: The meaning behind the oxygen therapy, Allen I Confessions of a (former) Marcuard I CSICOP 25th Anniversary section: A quar­ crashed-UFO myth. Bartholomew I Case closed: graphologist. Tripician I The Second Coming of Jesus. ter-century of skeptical inquiry. Paul Kurtz I Thoughts Reflections on the 1997 Air Force Roswell report. Gardner. on science and skepticism in the twenty-first century. Gildenberg and Thomas I Gray Barker My friend, the Kendrick frazier I Proper criticism. Ray Hyman I The myth-maker. Sherwood I A skeptic living in Roswell. NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 1999 (vol. 23, no. 6): The lighter side of skepticism. Pudim / A skeptical look at Churchill I Zero-point energy and Harold Puthoff, Universe and Carl Sagan, Davidson I The millennium Gardner. Karl Popper, Gardner. thought contagion. Lynch I Debunking the : MAY/JUNE 2001 (vol. 25. no. 3): The shrinking file- A response to astrology. Kelly I The physio behind drawer. Stokes / The Pokemon Panic of 1997. Radford four amazing demonstrations, Willey I Another lunar For a complete listing of our back issues, call 800-634- I The Antinous Prophecies. Pickover I Common myths effect put to rest. Sweet / Special Report: Blooming 1610. or see http7/www.csicop.org/5i/badi-issues.html. FOLLOW-UP

Committees concerns regarding issues Before beginning our proposed work, It is true that complaints were made of methodology, timeliness of submis­ my colleagues and I sought a waiver of about my colleagues and my research, as sion of the application to the consent process in order to perform a referred to by Tavris. The genesis of these IRBMED, and implications of the retrospective analysis of existing and complaints appears to be plaintiffs' per­ research. The memo outlined areas that anonymous records. Such a request is sonal injury lawyers (or those affiliated were in need of further information allowed under federal regulations (e.g., with diem) who are unhappy with the and suggested that the investigator be 45 C.F.R. 46) and in our case, after results of my research. Apparently unable asked to comment on how these issues appropriate review, a waiver was granted. to rebut that research on its merits, a were to be addressed. Tavris noted that I was a member of the small number of persons who feel threat­ IRBMED at the time my worked was ened by the data have undertaken to dis­ My Research on Solvent approved, but she failed to mention that credit me and my colleague and to pre­ Exposure in keeping witfi institutional and feder­ vent others from undertaking similar In a "Postscript" to her piece. Tavris ally mandated procedures, I was formally research; they have submitted "com­ describes as an "irony" the fact that I and my colleagues received IRB approval for certain research I have con­ ducted regarding solvent exposure in railroad workers. Tavris's treatment of my research is indeed "ironic," but not My research yielded important information for the reasons she describes. I concur about solvent exposure. Within the scientific with Tavris's assertion that "Skeptical inquiry is endangered when rJiose who community, the research was well received. arc offended or threatened by knowl­ edge are abie to silence those who have something valuable to say." That is exactly what has happened to me since publication of my data. excused from participation in any discus­ plaints" to various entities, including the From time to time, I have been sion or decision regarding that review or Department of Health and Human retained by CSX to conduct evaluations its outcome. Services, and then taken care to advise of workers involved in civil litigation It is also not the case that my research newspaper reporters of those "com­ with that company over exposure to sol­ had, as Tavris suggests, "far graver impli­ plaints." Tavris may have unwittingly vents. Separate and apart from that pri­ cations for the dignity and welfare of his become pan of those efforts. vate consulting work, CSX partially [sic, referring to me) subjects." The It is correct that the University of funded retrospective, records-based truth is that the formal and federally Michigan responded to these com­ research conducted at the University of authorized group charged with assessing plaints with several investigations in Michigan regarding health implications my research determined the proposed order to address the questions and con­ of solvent exposure in railroad workers. work was proper and imposed "minimal cerns raised. In every instance, my col­ This funding was to the University of risk" (i.e., the lowest possible risk assess­ leagues and I were exonerated. The ment) to the anonymous subjects whose Michigan and not to me personally. I results of those investigations were for­ data we analyzed. participated in that research and, with warded to the Department of Health My research yielded important infor­ my colleagues, published our findings and Human Services, which, to my mation about solvent exposure. Those in peer-reviewed journals. However, knowledge, has not taken any further data may be of interest to parties in that research and those publications action. As far as I am concerned, the private civil litigation—but that is a were not written for or at the behest of matter is closed. If the reader is inter­ byproduct of much scientific investiga­ CSX or anyone else. It is simply incor­ ested, more detailed information can be tion in these litigious times, and was rect, as Tavris asserts, that I was "hired not the purpose or intent behind that accessed on the University's Web site at by CSX or anyone else. It is simply research. Within rhe scientific commu­ www.med.umich.edu/opm/clinicalres/. incorrect, as Tavris asserts, dial I was nity, the research was well received: one Finally, the author incorrectly states "hired by CSX and Dow" to conduct of the publications from our work that I have taken early retirement. In that research. received the Adolph G. Kammer Mer­ fact, I continue to be active in my There are no parallels between my it in Authorship Award from the research, writing, administration, teach­ retrospective, record-based research and American College of Occupational and ing and other activities at the University the incident described in Tavris's article. Environmental Medicine. of Michigan.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 2002 63 FOLLOW-UP

Reply to Stanley Berent

CAROL TAVRIS

erent's letter is three times longer failure to release the memo was that he above contamination by conflicts of inter­ than the postscript I wrote about couldn't find it; next, that it didn't exist; est that impartial review boards are cru­ Bhim in my essay, so I welcome the now, apparently, that he is unable to dis­ cial. Naturally Berent believes that his chance to reply and clarify. Because this close anything about it for some mysteri­ "research yielded important information debate exemplifies the larger systematic ous reasons of confidentiality. about solvent exposure," but others are problems in academia and research these Why should this memo have been entitled to be skeptical. Berent asserts days, I hope readers will stay with me. kept secret from Guyer? Berent may not that he was not hired by CSX and Dow. I have Berent's memo about the pro­ think it is filled with "false innuendo, This is a most disingenuous remark. posal in front of me. It is headed malicious insinuations, and outright fal­ The funding went to his private con­ "Confidential Memo" in capital letters. sities," but I have read it, and I think sulting corporation in Ann Arbor, which I have this memo because it was— that it is. For example, he suggests in the works in alliance with the University of inappropriately and unethically, in my memo, with unctuous concern, that Michigan. According to the Louisville view—sent to Elizabeth Loftus's investi­ Guyer might have falsely misrepresented Courier-Journal which conducted a ten- gating committee at the University of himself to his interviewees as being a month investigation: "CSX railroad Washington, where her lawyers discov­ (clinical) psychologist, which would paid more than $ 170,000 over two years ered it and shared it with her; she natu­ have been a violation of "state or other for University of Michigan research rally informed her colleague about it. laws." This is a serious allegation to that, when published, denied any link The memo was sent to UW by Ed make against an attorney, for it is a between industrial solvents the com­ Goldman, UM's attorney on the IRB felony in the state of Michigan to mis­ pany's workers used and their previously [Institutional Review Board], of which represent oneself as a clinical psycholo­ diagnosed permanent brain damage. Stanley Berent was a member and even­ gist and a conviction would be grounds And while conducting their study, the tually Chair. It seems unlikely that for disbarment—as well as grounds for university researchers—neurologist Dr. Berent "knew nothing about its release impugning him as an expert witness. James Albers and neuropsychologist Dr. to other parties," but if he didn't at the Guyer, who is a lawyer as well as a Stanley Berent—worked as paid expert time, he certainly knew about it later. research psychologist, suspects that witnesses for law firms representing Now, why is Berent so determined not Berent will not release this document CSX in lawsuits filed by workers." to disclose its contents "outside the IRB," because he knows full well diat if he The newspaper reported that "more and why does he "not intend to do so does so, it will subject him to a libel suit. than 600 railroaders in fifteen states had now"? He claims he had no part in keep­ The larger issue here, however, is the been diagnosed with a form of brain ing die memo secret. But when Guyer power of IRBs to conduct secret investi­ damage known as toxic encephalopathy learned of its existence, he asked Berent gations and fail to respond to researchers' following heavy exposure to chlorinated for it directly. Berent replied by e-mail requests for information about how deci­ hydrocarbon solvents for many years. that he looked but couldn't find it, but sions were arrived at. When any inves­ CSX alone had paid out up to $35 mil­ diat it wasn't important anyway because tigative unit is permitted to operate in lion to 466 current or former workers no committee decisions were based on it. the dark, making decisions that affect during the past fifteen years." He did not tell Guyer that its contents people's lives and reputations, it will Under such circumstances, would were secret or confidential. Later, how­ sooner or later abuse this power. Berent and Albers have felt free to say to ever, when Guyer and his lawyer finally As for Berent's research on solvent CSX, "Sorry, guys, you paid us a bundle, sought release of all IRB documents, exposure, of course he is going to claim but our research shows that your solvents using the Freedom of Information Act, he is an honorable scientist who is above were responsible for these workers' med­ Berent and the IRB denied that it even such venalities as conflict of interest. It ical problems, and we will testify to that existed. So the first reason for Berent's is precisely because all of us feel we are effect for the plaintiffs"? I don't think so.

64 November/December 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER FOLLOW-UP

That is the nature of co-optation: It on commercial sources of revenue for Louisville Courier-Journals headline of ensnares die most honorable of investiga­ research and other needs. Berent is August 15, 2001: "Key figure in CSX tors as well as the most crass. And that is absolutely correct that he has been case will retire; Researcher says move not the reason the public should be seriously "exonerated" by internal investigations linked to ethics probe." alarmed that the once-unbreachable fire­ at the University of Michigan; "white­ I should have used the term sent by wall between science and industry has washed" is another term. The Berent's department chair to all members been almost completely destroyed. University has vested interests to pro­ of the department, that Berent was "tran­ Today, much research is funded by tect in this situation, too. sitioning into a phased retirement,' by private industry that has a vested inter­ I apologize for my mistake about stepping down as die university's medical est in the outcome, and universities Berent's "early retirement." When I school chief psychologist and as director themselves are increasingly dependent wrote that, I was looking at the of its neuropsychology division.

Wiseman Replies to Schwartz

This is a brief response to "After-Death Communications: A Misleading Critique," by Gary E. Schwartz, Follow-Up column, SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, September/October 2002.

RICHARD WISEMAN

I am glad to see that Gary Schwartz ded by carrying out new studies that do reveals that this new experiment still accepts that his original experiment did not contain the type of contained the potential for judging bias, indeed contain the various flaws that I and judging artifacts present in his orig­ as the sitters were not blind when assess­ outlined in my critique. He does, how­ inal experiment. Schwartz claims to ing the accuracy of the mediums' com­ ever, dispute whether such problems have recently conducted and published ments. Until such problems are rectified could give rise to the apparent accuracy such an experiment {Journal of the it will be impossible to judge whether of the mediums' statements. This is an Society for Psychical Research, 65.4, the mediums involved in such studies empirical question that can only be set- 257-275). Unfortunately, his paper have paranormal abilities.

• ASKE - The Association for Skeptical Enquiry • ECSO - European Council of Special Organizations • CSICOP - The Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal 11th European Skeptics Congress September 5-7,2003 • London, England

This congress will be held in the center of London, an exciting meeting place for skeptics from the world over to talk about listen to, discuss, and debate current controversies. The congress will consist of: • Keynote addresses by invited speakers • "Make your point" sessions: brief presentations, • One or more debates on contentious issues following which the audience will discuss and • Thirty-minute talks and discussion by participants challenge the issue raised by each presenter. There will be a sequence of symposia devoted to different areas of interest to skeptics, although one symposium may be a miscel­ lany of topics. The others are Science, Health and Medicine; ; ; and "Scientists on the Defensive," the last-mentioned being in the form a debate.

For further details visit the ASKE Web site (www.aske.org.uk) or contact The 11th European Skeptics Congress, ASKE, P.O. Box 5994, Ripley, DE5 3X, UK (e-mail: [email protected]|.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 2002 65 LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

ostensibly revealing the weakness of case published their work (after careful and exten­ studies. I do not dispute their research, but sive peer review), the American Psychological wish to point out that readers are no more Association (APA), coming under strong Skeptical Inquirer able to assess the accuracy, balance, and attack by conservative members of Congress : * validity of their work than were readers of for publishing the study, eventually distanced Corwin's work. I™ rz Science and themselves from it by saying they didn't agree Pseudoscience Unfortunately the memory issue was with the conclusions of the study, as if science- addressed in our adversarial legal system, required agreement with traditional attitudes. which polarizes debate and is ill-suited to In order to placate its critics for publishing arriving at moderate or reasonable conclu­ the study, the APA took the unprecedented sions, and became inflamed, with first one H i \ It > step of forwarding it to the prestigious Knot witch-hunt against sexual abusers, then American Association for the Advancement ErwrtH. _ • Wiry n PWJI»»cir>W another in retaliation. of Science (AAAS) for further review. A panel SKEPTICAL INQUIRER'S readers may be sur­ from the AAAS, after reviewing the study and Q«?Pari2 prised to learn that "repression" and "memory finding no fault, expressed "grave concerns"

Cost of Skepticism ihp rtdrie tttui* Conwr.ii recovery" have not been discredited. Si's in regard to how the Rind study was "politi­ Sasscr of Mattooom focus otherwise does a disservice to the peo­ cized and misrepresented" by its critics. The ple involved and to the skeptical community. sexual hysteria that is ravaging our country Repeated investigation has reached conclu­ and devastating innocent adults and children sions that should surprise no one: Memory of with a web of deceit and pseudoscience can trauma is sometimes forgotten, sometimes only have the ultimate effect of trivializing Postmortem on Case not. Memories which have been forgotten arc true sexual abuse by, ironically appropos, sometimes recovered, sometimes not. "throwing the baby out with the bathwater." History Recovered memories are sometimes accurate and reliable, sometimes not. (Check out Arthur Pomerantz In "Who Abused Jane Doe?" (Conclusion, www.apa.org/pubinfo/mem.html.) Silver Spring, Maryland July/August 2002) the authors perform a detailed review of previous work and expose Invalid methods to ascertain memory reli­ what appears to be poor workmanship in a ability are unfortunately widespread. I sug­ The report by Carol Tavris is shocking. It is case history. It should be no surprise that clin­ gest we move discussion to more useful focus. hard to believe and very saddening when ical psychologists and psychiatrists make mis­ How might reliable best be distinguished takes. Mistakes are made in every profession. from unreliable? What corroborations consti­ believed. It seemed to me, in the 1950s, when tute sufficiency? What indicators suggest I first became a university faculty member, A critical factor in improving the quality that one had the right to pursue one's intel­ of work done in a profession is being able to presence or absence of reliability? With this lectual curiosity wherever it might venture. locate mistakes. Only when mistakes can be focus, we could meaningfully inform clinical, I was hired because those most con­ identified can the quality of work be legal, and lay communities regarding an cerned wanted a vigorous lecturer to fill improved. important subject and truly demonstrate the value of skepticism and rational thought. the available opening. If one published, that When a patient dies, a detailed autopsy was gravy. Fortunately I got tenure before performed by an independent doctor may dis­ Kenneth L. Salzman the "publish or perish" dictate overtook cover that an incorrect diagnosis or procedure Licensed Clinical Psychologist the university. harmed the patient. From this knowledge the Lansing, Michigan Now it appears, since universities are practice of medicine is improved. Whai I •illu- and Guyer have done is similar to per­ increasingly administered as businesses, that forming a postmortem. From a detailed and academic freedom is in large measure an independent audit of a case history mistakes High Cost of Skepticism antique. To be hired, one must have pub­ and poor practices arc identified. lished. To obtain tenure and advancement I totally agree with Carol Tavris's article "The one must have research proposals that yield Quality is not likely to advance quickly High Cost of Skepticism" (Ju\yl August 2002) nice grants so that the university can get its when a profession makes it very hard for in which she expressed grave concern regard­ cut of the grant money. Intellectual curiosity poor work to be detected and corrected. To ing the state of scientific investigation and the must be grant-directed. an outsider it seems obvious that clinical psy­ "growing institutional barriers to free chologists, in die interests of performing Tavris reveals there are even more hazards inquiry." She correctly praises Loftus and quality work, should have independent pro­ afoot. What next? As for teaching under­ Guyer for their courage, persistence, and fessionals audit a random sampling of their graduates, that is left to graduate students! integrity. I would like to add another three past cases. Without this, improvements in While the Jane Doe Question had no con­ names to her list. Bruce Rind, Robert qualify will be slow. nection to teaching. I can't refrain from not­ Bauserman, and Ph.D. candidate Philip ing that the importance of teaching has Steve Sullivan Tromovirch were savagely assailed by conser­ fallen into the same slough of neglect as has vative radio host "Dr. Laura," The Family Beaverton, Oregon academic freedom. Do we still really have Research Council, victimologists of all universities, or is this label becoming a mis­ stripes, and even the Congress of the United nomer and what we have are glorified tech­ States (January/February 2000 SI; July/ Loftus and Guyer offer a case study to assail nical schools dominated by petty bureaucrats August 2001 SI). The very organization that the issue of memory repression and recovery, and businessmen? This should be of grave

66 November/December 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

concern for all pursuers of skeptical inquiry. radically different, posited noumena which inability to incorporate the previous theory not only could also explain the same phe­ As concerns the subjectivity of scientific Laurence G. Wolf nomena but might really be the correct knowledge, popularized by Kuhn, this impres­ Cincinnati, Ohio explanation. While science has been incredi­ sion is mostly connected with misunderstood bly successful, nonetheless, scientists, like all popular descriptions of scientific work, and other human beings, must learn to accept even with poor knowledge of scientific results. When Tavris, Loftus, and Guyer express the limits of human understanding. Some freedom in the selection of facts to be their outrage at the abridgment of the First explained exists only during the first attempts Amendment free speech rights of the latter Donald F. Nigroni to construct a theory The great thing is the two by their respective institutions, the)- may Glenolden, Pennsylvania insight and the ability of some scientists to select be falling prey to a common misconception. the problem to which it is possible to turn—for Their story involves violations of academic a while—with a blind eye in order to explain freedom, tenure, open inquiry, and institu­ The statement by Yuri N. Efremov that "new the whole picture—yet Utter on, even these tional due process—but no apparent infrac­ knowledge, if it is true, always includes the missed things are explained within the frame­ tion of the First Amendment. old, which appears as a special case of the new work of the same theory—if it is correct. dieory" simply isn't true. Two examples, die The First Amendment only addresses The achievements of contemporary science phlogiston theory of die seventeenth century, suppression of speech by the government. It (first of all physical theory, cosmology included) and the caloric theory of the eighteendi, come does not protect you from the actions of pri­ are not easy to describe for everyone, even for immediately to mind. Efremov would surely vate parties, such as your spouse, father-in- those who have a solid philosophical education. be hard-pressed to explain how either of these law, or boss. As far as the First Amendment Quite specialized knowledge is often needed. I dieories, widely accepted by the scientific is concerned, if your wife tells you to stow it, suspect that instead of trying to get this knowl­ community at the time, constitute a special you'd best buy a muzzle. edge, some philosophers simply cUlim the scien­ case under modern thermodynamic dieory. That die bosses here were state universi­ tific result subjective (and then nonessential). ties probably makes no difference. Those arc No doubt, what Efremov has in mind is Yet even from strange and seemingly abstract usually allowed the latitude of private uni­ what happened to classical Newtonian theory things appear that are widely used physics in the early twentieth century when versities in academic matters. (There's been today, often after many decades. Therefore these it was subsumed under the relarivistic no ruling on IRBs, so far as I know.) theories weie right. The theories of Maxwell, physics of Einstein, but it is hardly ever a Planck. and Einstein are the best cxampUs. Thus, the private employer (here, the uni­ good policy to base such a sweeping general­ Our observational abilities are surely con­ versity) may set die rules in his workplace He ity as Efremov's on a single example. can tell you to shut up or ship out. Your strained yet they correspond to our real woHd In remedies, if any, depend on the common law. Donald C. Wilson any moment we are able to see only a small part The professors' free speech rights (as W. Hartford, Connecticut of the world's construction; we are seeing through defined by contract, university rules, tenure, a window only yet this window is getting wider and wider. Our ability to describe and analyze academic custom, etc.) seem to have been Yuri Efremov responds: the world correctly has been confirmed by a bit of seriously violated. Their First Amendment cases when the abstract theory designed to explain rights probably were not. The letters bring up real problems that I didn't the things quite far from us (like the energy of have space to write about in detail in my paper. stars) was found to be suitable to make real things Paul Morgan Fredrix The example of phlogiston theory is not the only here (such as the Hydrogen bomb).... Nearly Los Angeles, California one that seemingly contradicts the assertion everything we see in our towns was created only that new knowledge, if true, always includes because the science correctly—and more and more the previous knowledge as a particular case. compUtely—reflects reality This is the only reality Copernicus's theory also does not include the Theories and Limits existing that is common for everybody—except for Ptolemy planet system as the special case. perhaps the postmodernist psauh-philosophen. Yuri N. Efremov ("The Reliability of My suggestion was to consider phlogiston Scientific Knowledge and the Enemies ol and Ptolemy theories as products of pre-scientific Yuri N Efremov Science," July/August 2002) considers knowledge. I do believe that Copernicus (and Sternberg Astronomical Institute philosophers of science like T.S. Kuhn to be Utter Newton, among others) did not create the Moscow, Russia enemies of science because they challenge its revolution in science, yet were the first real sci­ objectivity and its reliability. The position entists. This is not to say Ptolemy was completely that all scientific theories are always under- wrong—his theory did describe planet motions determined by any raw facts and that it will etc.,—but there was no real physics behind it, Placebo Power just as in the case of phlogiston. Both theories always be necessary to rely on values when were not even first approximations to reality; choosing amongst them was first espoused How many readers were surprised that they were instead nothing but mathematical by Pierre Duhem and later popularized by "Controlled Study Finds No Efficacy for St. models. Thus, Ptolemy's system of the world was Kuhn. Scientific theories are attempts to John's Wort in Major Depression" (News & something like the image of the mechanical Comment, July/August 2002)? describe how the noumena (or things-in- computer, having no relation to reality. There thcmselvcs, which can never be directly per­ was no real explanation, which always must be Both die media and SI ignored, however, ceived by us) can explain the phenomena part of the general picture, as is the case of all a point of greater interest to skeptics—and that we do perceive. Such theories can never contemporary theories. The first (but far from the medicine-buying public In the study be known to be objectively true because only) sign that a new theory is wrong is its {Journal of the American Medical Association dierc could always be some other, perhaps 287 [14]: 1807-1814. April 10, 2002),

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER No»ember/Dec«mber 2002 67 LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

neither did the mainstream prescription bereaved people, who arc most vulnerable to review of Robert Sawyer's novel Calculating medication sertraline, a selective serotonin charlatans, continue to be deceived by those God Every one of them states that Seidman reuptake inhibitor, outperform the placebo. who make millions. overreacted to a fiction novel while criticizing The study raises possibilities for a new, it from a skeptical viewpoint. The letter from Bob Baugher, Ph.D. but proven "nutritional supplement": Sawyer himself ends with: Department of Psychology "Genuine Placebo, clinically tested as effec­ "Barry Seidman's review .. . it's also pan Highline Community College tive as sertraline, widi no side effects whatso­ of the shift toward knee-jerk reaction and Des Moines, Washington ever. Accept no substitutes." rhetorical sleight of hand within the skepti­ And that's just one of its uses. cal community that is damaging the skepti­ cal movement itself." William E. Lee Is Sawyer saying something important Pordand, Maine Helder's New Age Notions here? Is the skeptical community becoming reactionary and close-minded? A couple of Benjamin Radford's piece on Luke Helder things come to mind that might contribute to John Edward's 3.3-Second (the smiley-face pipe bomber. News & Com­ a shift toward reactionary responses. First, Disclaimer ment, July/August 2002) strikes me as an how many times must we debunk a ghost story or a psychic or telepathy? After a while, As a psychologist and college instructor of a the constant repetition of the same old claims course entitled "Critical Thinking About tbe is going to make anyone say, "Another ghost Paranormal," I have heard much about John story? It's nonsense." Second, is the ratio of Edward's TV series Crossing Over on the Sci believers to debunkcrs becoming high enough Fi channel. Recently I videotaped a couple of tbat debunkers don't have time to deal with all episodes and noticed the disclaimer at the the claims? That also will cause them to say end of each show. First, I invite the reader to "Sorry, no time today. It's nonsense." sec how much of it can be read in 3.3 sec­ I discussed this issue with fellow skeptics onds, which is exactly how long the message at the Education Foundation is displayed. Second, notice the word "pro­ forum and many agreed thai these two reac­ ducer" is used twice. However, there are no tions are becoming more common. I propose fewer than eleven "producers" mentioned. oblique attempt to blame his actions on his that if skeptics, and especially those debunk­ Third, what a tragedy it is for so many believ­ New Age beliefs. I hope you'll consider that ers to put their faith in Edward and his ilk these crackpot New Age notions are nothing ing claims, arc tired of a particular genre of when all they need to do is read the last three but the organ on which he played his mad­ claim, or don't have time to deal with it thor­ lines (which of course is impossible unless ness. Had these philosophies not been avail­ oughly, they simply say, "I'm sorry, but I've you're a speed reader) and see the words "... able to him, he might well have planted been over that claim before. I don't have time are not meant or intended to be a form of... bombs in the name of some political, social, to do it again." There is no advantage to hav­ factual statement in anyway whatsoever." or religious philosophy. ing an opinion on every claim.

Four years ago I debated James Van Russell T. Johnson Paul C. Anagnostopoulos Praagh on a local TV show. It is sad to see [email protected] Carlisle, Massachusetts

Benjamin Radford responds: Having been intrigued by the mini-storm brewed up by Barry Seidman's review of Johnson, and at least one other reader, feel Calculating God along with the subsequent that my News & Comment piece somehow letters to your magazine (July/August 2002), implied that New Age beliefs caused Helder's I must say that my initial sympathy was with bombing spree. I am well aware of the fallacy Robert Sawyer. However, after actually read­ of trying to blame an individual's actions on ing the book, I've come to agree more with a belief system; in fact I stated quite clearly Seidman's viewpoint. Sawyer gives un­ that "the paranormal cannot be said to have abashed credence to all of the creationist caused Helder's attacks. " However in this case assertions (his two hillbillies notwithstand­ it is not J but Helder himself who claims that ing). What science-based counterviews his the bombs were designed to draw attention to human character mentions are offered only his paranormal beliefs. I was simply reporting half-heartedly. He then goes on to suggest a facet of the story which had been virtually that popular scientists with well-known ignored by the media. skeptical views, such as Sagan and Gould, actually sccredy held, if not explicit pro-God views, at least had developed serious doubts about their own, long-held skeptical princi­ Skeptics' Reactions ples. Strangely, Sawyer offers a Borders- related essay on his sfwritcr Web site as an TV psychic John Edward. Photo: Evan Agostini/ In the July/August 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER indication of his "true" skeptical credentials. imageDirect diere are four letters about Barry Seidman's

68 November/December 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

But the essay actually only reinforces the honor belongs to Thomas Jefferson, Marvin J. Schisscl points that Seidman was making. Still in all, who made a statement implying that prin­ Roslyn Heights, New York I mostly enjoyed the book, up until the ciple in 1805. We should not stop there. rather weak ending. It might have been bet­ The principle can be found in a famous ter to have closed at the point the human essay on miracles by the great Scottish Lefs Make ID Inclusive! and aliens began their trip to visit God, philosopher David Hume. The essay rather than attempt to describe what they was first published in 1748 as Chapter found. That would have allowed readers to 10 of his Enquiry Concerning Human If "Intelligent Design" should be forced into imagine their own deep and unfathomable Understanding. It is still worth reading. your school system, consider this. The whole discovery. Unfortunately, the ending The essay is well explained and put in its purpose of the ID movement is to turn reminded me of the rather vague and unsat­ context in Stephen Buckle's Hume's departments of science education into eigh­ isfying conclusion to 2001: A Space Odyssey. Enlightenment Tract (Oxford University teenth century schools of "natural theology." Press, 2001). Jefferson, a man of discrimi­ However, one strategem of this movement— John dinger nating taste, admirable intellect, and wide to slyly not identify the "designer"—leaves the door open to nontheistic "designers." Richmond, Virginia. learning—which at that time, did not dis­ qualify him from the presidency—was cer­ There is Francis Crick's suggestion in his tainly familiar with Hume's writings, and 1981 book, Life Itself, of "directed pansper­ mia," a process by which a very advanced Blue Babe a Bison with Hume's statement: "the wise man proportions his belief to the evidence." civilization has seeded the galaxy with life by sending spaceships loaded with bacteria While I much enjoyed the critique of many places, including Earth. "Fingerprints of the Gods," (July/August Thomas Mautner My own favorite would-be designers are 2002) there was one minor error in the arti­ Canberra, A.C.T. the members of the Raelian "flying saucer" cle on page 47. Australia group. Rael, a famous European race car dri­ ver, claims he was taken aboard a spacecraft in southern France and recruited by the alien Giant Footprints designers of our species to further their work. To that end. Rael formed a group with Whenever I read an account of giant foot­ science degrees in the United States to per­ prints attributed to Sasquatch (Letters, fect human cloning. Their testimony during July/August 2002) I have to chuckle, because congressional hearings on cloning last year I'm reminded of a cartoon in "Up Front" by was most colorful. 1 am a practicing school­ Bill Mauldin. Willy and Joe, the long-suffer­ teacher. When I tell some supporters of ID ing heroes of this collection of WWII car­ in the classroom about the need to include toons, are staring at a set of huge tracks left the Raelians in the lesson plans, their enthu­ along a muddy road somewhere in the siasm wanes. European war theatre, and the caption is "Footprints! Gawd, what a monster!" Their John Davis own combat boots are caked in mud and are Jackson, Mississippi about the size of tennis racquets

Sam Hanson Douglas City, California The letters column is a forum Blue babe was not a "mammoth," it was for views on matters raised in an Ice Age bison (Bison priscus). Its blue color Quackery, Not Holism previous issues. Letters should was due to the mineral vivianitc dusting the be no more than 225 words. carcass. The story of Blue babe and other Ice Age animals is told in the book Frozen Fauna In the discussion of "Holism" (Letters, Due to the volume of letters of the Mammoth Steppe: The Story of Blue July/August 2002) an essential point has not all can be published. Babe by R. Dale Guthrie. been overlooked. Proponents of "alternative Address letters to Letters to holistic" practices complain that we should the Editor, SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. Sheila L Chambers not wait for evidence to be gathered, that we [email protected] could be denying patients benefits, that Send by mail to 944 Deer Dr. some day these methods may be validated. NE, Albuquerque, NM 87122; But the public believes that health pro­ by fax to 505-828-2080; or by Jefferson and Hume fessionals use proven treatments, and it con­ e-mail to [email protected] stitutes deception to use unvalidatcd meth­ (include name and address). The principle that extraordinary claims ods without telling the patient. require extraordinarily strong evidence has Treatments used prior to proof are called been credited to Carl Sagan. This is unfair, experiments, and should be so labeled. To use according to Shawn Carlson (Letters, unproven treatments on uninformed patients May/June 2002), who argues that the for money is not holism. It is quackery.

SKEPT INQUIRER November/December 2002 69 THE COMMITTEE FOR THE SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLAIMS OF THE PARANORMAL AT THE CENTER FOR INQUIRYHNTERNATIONAL (ADJACENT TO THE STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK AT BUFFALO) AN INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION Network of Affiliated Organizations International AUSTRALIA. Canberra Skeptics, Canberra nology, China. Shen Zhenyu Research Center, the Investigation of the Anomalous Australia. Peter Barrett President. PO Box 555. P.O. Box 8113, Beijing China. Hong Kong Phenomena (KCIAP) Kazakhstan. Dr. Sergey Civic Square ACT 2608 Australia. Australian Skeptics. Hong Kong. Brad Collins. P.O. Box Efimov, Scientific Secretary. E-mail: efime Skeptics Inc.. Australia. Barry Williams, 1010, Shatin Central Post Office, Shatin NT China. afi.south-capital.kz. Astrophysical Institute Executive Officer. Tel. 61-2-9417-2071; e-mail: COSTA RICA. Iniciativa para la Promoci6n del Kamenskoye Plato Alma-Ata. 480020 Republic skepticsekasm.com.au. PO Box 268, Roseville Pensamiento Crftico (IPPEQ San Jose. Victor Of Kazakhstan. Committee for the Scien­ NSW 2069 Australia, www.skeptics.com.au. Quiros V. Tel.: 506 275 43 52; e-mail: victorcr tific Expertise of Claims of the Paranormal Australian Skeptics—Hunter Region eracsa.co.cr. A.P. 1513-1002 Paseo de los (CSECOP). Newcastle/Hunter Valley. Dr. Colin Keay, Estudiantes San Jose. Costa Rica. httpV/webs. KOREA. Korea PseudoScience Awareness President. Tel.: 61-2-49689666; e-mail: demasiado.comA/icr. (KOPSA) Korea. Dr. Gun-ll Kang, Director. Tel.: bolideGhunterlink.net au. PO Box 166, Waratah CZECHOSLOVAKIA. Sisyfos-Czech Skeptics 82-2-393-2734; e-mail: KOPSAechollian.net. NSW 2298. Australia Darwin Skeptics, Club. Czech Republic. Ms. Ing. Olga Kracikova, 187-11 Bukahyun-dong, Sudaemun-ku, Seoul Northern Territory, Australia. Simon Potter, Secretary. Tel.: 420-2-24826691; e-mail: 120-190 Korea www.kopsa.or.kr. Secretary. 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Tel.: 505-869-9250; e-mail: nmsrdave Western Washington Tad Cook. Secretary. E-mail; FLORIDA. Tampa Bay Skeptics (TBS) Tampa Bay. Oswcp.com PO Box 1017, Peralta, NM 87042 US k7vwOarrl.net. PO Box 45792. Seattle. WA 98145-0792 Florida. Gary Posner. Executive Director. Tel.. 813- www.iiinsi.oig. US. Iillpy/sedtlleskeptiu.org. 584 0603; e-mail: tbskepOaol.com. 5319 Archstone NEW YORK. New York Area Skeptics (NYASk) met­ Dr «102. Tampa. Fl 33634 US httpV/members ropolitan NY area Ted W. Debiak. President Tel.: The organizations listed above have aims similar to aol.com/lbskep 516-735-8739. e-mail: infoOnyask.com. 57 South those of CSICOP but are independent and GEORGIA. Georgia Skeptics (GS) Georgia Rebecca Windhorst Ave.. Bethpage, NY 11714-4931 US autonomous. Representatives of these organizations Long. President Tel.: 770-493-6857; e-mail: arlong www.nyask.com Inquiring Skeptics of Upper cannot speak on behalf of the CSICOP Please send ehcrc.org. 2277 Winding Woods Dr., Tucker, GA New York (ISUNY) Upper New York. Michael updates to Bela Scheiber. PO Box 4482, Boulder, CO 30084 US. Sofka, 8 Providence St.. Albany, NY 12203 US 80306

SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL CONSULTANTS

George Agogino, Dept of Anthropology. Eastern New Laurie Godfrey, amhropologist University of Massachusetts James Pomerantz. Provost and professor of cognitive and Mexico University Gerald GokSn. mathematician. Rutgers University. New Jersey linguistic sciences, Brown Univ. Gary Uauslaugh. educational consultant. Center for Donald Goldsmith, astronomer; president Interstellar Media Gary P. Posner, M.D.. Tampa, Fla. Curriculum. Transfer and Technology, Victoria, B.C. Canada Alan Hale, astronomer, Southwest Institute for Space Daisie Radner, professor of philosophy. SUNY, Buffalo Richard E. Berendzen, astronomer, Washington, D.C. Research, Alamogordo. New Mexico Michael Radner, professor of philosophy, McMaster Martin Bridgstock. lecturer. School of Science, Griffith Clyde F. Herreid, professor of biology, SUNY. Buffalo University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada University, Brisbane. Australia Terence M. Hines, professor of psychology, Pace Robert H. Romer. professor of physics. Amherst College Richard Busch, magician/mentalist Pittsburgh, Penn University. Pleasantville, NY Karl Sabbagh, journalist Richmond, Surrey, England Shawn Carlson. Society for Amateur Scientists. East Michael Hutchinson, author; SxfimcAi iNoumf" represen­ Robert J. Samp, assistant professor of education and Greenwich. Rl tative. Europe medicine. University of Wisconsin-Madison Roger B. Culver, professor of astronomy, Colorado State Unrv Philip A lama, assoc professor of astronomy. Univ. of Virginia Felix Ares de Bias, professor of Steven D. Schafersman, asst. professor of geology, William Jarvis, professor of health prnmntion and public Miami Univ.. Ohio health, Loma Linda University, School of Public Health University of Basque. San Sebastian. Spain Bela Scheiber.* systems analyst Boulder. Colo. Michael R. Dennett writer, investigator. Federal Way. I. W. Kelly, professor of psychology, University of Chris Scott statistician, London, England Washington Saskatchewan Stuart D. Scott Jr, associate professor of anthropology. Sid Deutsdv consultant. Sarasota, Fla Richard H. Lange. M.D.. Mohawk Valley Phvsician Healili J. Dommanget astronomer. Royale Observatory, Plan, Schenectady. N.Y. SUNY. Buffaio Brussels, Belgium Gerald A. Larue, professor of biblical history and archae­ Erwin M. Segal, professor of psychology. SUNY, Buffalo Nahum J. Dufcer, assistant professor of pathology. ology, University of So. California Carta Selby, anthropologist/archaeologist Temple University Wnn M. London, consumer advocate. Fort Lee. New Jersey Steven N. Shore, professor and chair, Dept. of Physics and Barbara Eisenstadt psychologist educator, clinician. East Rebecca Long, nuclear engineer, president of Georgia Astronomy, Indiana Univ. South Bend Greenbush. N.Y Council Against Hearth Fraud. Atlanta. Ga Waclaw Szybalski. professor. McArdle Laboratory. William Evans, professor of communication, Georgia Thomas R. McDonough, lecturer in engineering. Caftech. University of Wisconsin-Madison State University and SETI Coordinator of the Planetary Society Ernest H. Taves. psychoanalyst Cambridge, Mass John F. Fischer, forensic analyst Orlando, Fla. James E. McGaha, Mapr. USAF. pilot Sarah G. Thomason, professor of linguistics. University of Robert E. Funk, anthropologist New York State Museum Joel A. Moskowftz. director of medical psychiatry, Pittsburgh a Science Service Calabasas Menta Health Services. Los Angeles Tim Trachet journalist and science writer, honorary chair­ Eileen Gamorill, professor of social welfare. University nf Jan Willem Nienhuys, mathematician. Univ of man of SKEPP Belgium California at Berkeley Eindhoven, the Netherlands Sytvio GarattJni. director, Mario Negri Pharmacology John W. Patterson, professor of materials science and • Member, CSICOP Executive Council Institute. Milan, Italy engineering, Iowa State University •Associate Membei. CSICOP Executive Council

METRO NEW YORK PERU CENTERS FOR INQUIRY Walnut and Green. 89 Walnut Street D. Casanova 430. lima 14. Peru wvwv.centerforinquiry.net Montclair. NJ 07042 Tel.: (973) 655-9556 EUROPE INTERNATIONAL Dr. Martin Manner P.O. Box 703 Arheilger Weg 11, D 64380 Rossdorf. Germany Amherst. NY 14226 FRANCE Tel.: +49 6154 695023 Tel.: (716) 636-1425 Prof. Henri Broth. Universite of Nice MOSCOW WEST Faculte des Sciences Professor Valeril A. Kuvakin 4773 Hollywood Blvd. Pare Valrose. 06108 119899 Russia, Moscow, Vorobevy Gory, Los Angeles, CA 90027 Nice cedex 2. France Moscow State University. Tel.: (323) 666-9797 www.unice.fr/zetetics/ Philosophy Department Center for Inqii'"' International "... to promote and defend reason, science, and freedom of inquiry in all areas of human endeavor." THE COMMITTEE FOR THE SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLAIMS OF THE PARANORMAL

A Wheel Within a Wheel A nearly perfect ring of hot blue stars pinwheeb about the yellow nucleus ol an unusual

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