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Weekly Financial Markets from June 20 Th to 24 Th 2016 by Analysis & Research Department

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Weekly Financial Markets from June 20 Th to 24 Th 2016 by Analysis & Research Department Weekly Financial Markets From June 20 th to 24 th 2016 By Analysis & Research Department Equity Our reflexion: BAM lowers inflation forecasts Stock Market : Trading volume continues to shrink Stock to follow: AMMC approves the merger Lafarge-Holcim in Morocco Fixed Income Bond Market Decline in primary yield curve Money Market Increase in the RRR from 2% to 4% International Commodities Precious metals benefit from risk aversion Forex Brexit materialized A T T I J A R I Intermédiation Stock market - (1/2) By Analysis & Research Department Our reflexion: BAM lowers inflation forecasts The Council of Bank Al-Maghrib decided to keep key rate unchanged at 2.25% during its last monetary policy meeting held on June 21 st , 2016 taking into account an upward revision of its inflation forecast for 2016 to 1.6 %. This upward revision is a result of a significant increase in volatile food prices. In addition, it should be noted that Bank Al-Maghrib anticipated a GDP growth rate of 1.2% in 2016 and 4.0% in 2017. In addition, the Council of Bank Al-Maghrib decided to react to the bank liquidity improvement. The banking sector showed a slow growth of bank loans, i.e. 2.0% Y-o-Y at the end of April 2016 against 2.5% a year earlier. In this context, the Council raised the required reserve ratio from to 2 % to 5% as response to the improvement in bank liquidity. This additional reserve would be remunerated at 0.75% for dynamic financial institutions whose outstanding loans are higher than the sector average during Q2-2016. Business news MASI 9.649,60 pts √ Fishing activity up 15.0% at the end of May 2016 Week change -0,48% YTD change 7,59% √ Morocco’s net hard currency reserves up 25.9% ADV CM Week (MAD million) 31,0 ADV BM Week (MAD million) 21,2 √ The Consumer Price Index up 0.5% during May 2016 Trading volume continues to shrink Evolution of the index vs. volume (MAD Mn) over a week The MASI index closed the week in a negative territory, posting a weekly decrease of 0.48% to 9,603.16 points. Thus, th the market YTD performance stood at 7.59% as of June 24 , 9 649,6 106 2016. 9 603,2 Regarding the transactions flows, the wait-and-see attitude 32 35 37 39 continues to reign on the market. Indeed, the average daily 18 26 volume traded on the central market stood at only MAD 31.0 million this week against an annual average of 17-juin 20-juin 21-juin 22-juin 23-juin 24-juin MAD 92.1 million. In this context of low volumes, Attijariwafa Bank, Maroc Telecom and Saham Assurances Central Market Block Market MASI captured more than the half of total trade, with respective volumes of MAD 34.7 million, MAD 32.0 million and MAD 21.6 million. Weekly sectoral performances If the summer period is historically marked by sluggish Mining -8,2% activity, we expect a renewal of trading volumes enhanced by Building materials -1,9% the IPO of Marsa Maroc and the potential trade-offs which Bank -1,1% should follow. Tourism -1,0% Chemical -0,9% Concerning the most significant sectoral performances of this Telecoms -0,3% week, we note: Cement -0,2% Food processing -0,2% The mining sector posted the largest decrease of the week Refining - Finance companies 0,1% (-8.2%). This under performance is attributed to SMI and Insurance 0,4% Managem stocks which fell respectively by 18.5% and 2.9%. IT 0,4% Note that this technical decline included the ex dividend of Utilities 0,5% Real estate 0,7% MAD 220.0 for SMI and MAD 20.0 for Managem which occurred Distribution 0,9% rd on June 23 , 2016. Vehicles 2,0% Energy distribution 3,3% At the same time, the building materials sector displayed a weekly decline of 1.9%. This is mainly related to Aluminium du Maroc stock which decreased by 11.8%. In this context, it is should recalled that in a press release, Aluminium du Maroc has announced that it has been swindled following the change of bank details. Occurred during Q1-2016, this fact concerns bank transfers to a foreign supplier for an amount worth $ 5.06 million, i.e. nearly MAD 50 million. By Analysis & Research Department (2/2) - market Stock The AMMC has approved, on June 24 Exchange. the top 5 of the largest market capitalizations on Thus, this operation would enable the newly formed the exchange date is scheduled on July 13 July on scheduled is date theexchange expected expected to be realized during the 3 MAD 9.1 billion follows the merger scenario for establ 1 Holcim price of MAD 1,539.17, based upon a Maroc parity of 1.20 share. shareholders, involves This the issuance of 5,9 transaction millions Maroc. with This an operation related to Lafarge which Ciments capital increase through is reserved to Holcim M Stock to follow...Stock AMMC approves the merger Lafarge-Holcim in Morocco Morocco in Lafarge-Holcim merger the approves AMMC rd quarter of this year. In this context, th 2016, an information prospectus th , 2016. ,2016. new shares at a unit a merger with Holcim Lafarge Lafarge Ciments share the Casablanca Stock Group Group to rank among ished ished in 2015 and is aroc aroc current amount amount of 1 626 1 02 /01 /15 26 /01 /15 MASI LAC 16 /02 /15 Stock 09 /03 /15 30 /03 /15 of Evolution Lafarge vs.stock Volumes 20 /04 /15 12 /05 /15 +0.7% +0.5% 02 /06 /15 3M Volume 23 /06 /15 14 /07 /15 06 /08 /15 +16.7% 01 /09 /15 +8.2% 22 /09 /15 6M 16 /10 /15 09 /11 /15 01 /12 /15 Price 22 /12 /15 +0.2% -1.9% 12M 18 /01 /16 08 /02 /16 29 /02 /16 21 /03 /16 +29.6% 11 /04 /16 +4.3% 24M 02 /05 /16 23 /05 /16 1 800 1 13 /06 /16 Bond Market By Analysis & Research Department Decline in primary yield curve The final session auction of June remains has witnessed a decline in investors' yield requirements. Indeed, the 13, 52 week and 2 year maturities were down 7.0, 3.2 and 2.3 bps respectively. On the secondary market side, the trend remained mixed between short-medium and long terms. Investors thus remain on a wait and see attitude and prefer to observe bond yields evolution following the decision of Bank Al Maghrib to keep steady its key rate and raise its required reserve ratio from 2% to 4% currently. After this session, the aggregate amount subscribed by the Treasury during the month of June stood at 4.2 MAD billion below the forecast. The latter are established between MAD 6.0 billion and MAD 6.5 billion or a monthly implementation rate of 64.0%. Regarding the characteristics of the session, the Treasury has been active only on short and medium terms by making a lift of MAD 1.0 billion while demand declined slightly to MAD 5.9 billion. Primary Market Maturity Rate (w) Rate (w-1) Spread 4,99% 13w 1,61% 1,68%- 7,0 4,42% 26w 1,71% 1,71% - 4,03% 4,92% 52w 1,84% 1,87%- 3,2 3,63% 3,48% 3,12% 2y 2,02% 2,05%- 2,3 3,20% 2,71% 2,74% 5y 2,29% 2,29% - 2,53% 2,51% 2,55% 2,29% 10y 2,74% 2,74% - 2,02% 15y 3,20% 3,20% - 1,84% 1,61% 1,71% 20y 3,48% 3,48% - 30y 4,92% 4,92% - 13w 26w 52w 2y 5y 10y 15y 20y 31/12/2015 21/06/2016 Secondary Market Maturity Rate (w) Rate (w-1) Spread 13w 1,68% 1,68% - 4,36% 26w 1,71% 1,71% - 3,92% 52w 1,85% 1,86%- 1,3 3,54% 3,52% 3,10% 3,25% 2y 2,01% 2,02%- 1,5 2,77% 2,82% 2,61% 5y 2,37% 2,37%- 0,6 2,48% 2,51% 2,37% 10y 2,82% 2,87%- 5,3 2,01% 1,85% 15y 3,25% 3,16% 9,2 1,68% 1,71% 20y 3,52% 3,52% 0,0 13w 26w 52w 2y 5y 10y 15y 20y 31/12/2015 21/06/2016 Treasury payment term 2016 (MAD Bn) Offered and retained amounts 2015 (MAD Mn) SoumissionsOffered SouscriptionsRetained Maturity Offered Retained % 73,2 13w 40,0 2,7 7% 26w 23,7 1,2 5% 52w 34,0 4,6 13% 40,0 34,0 2y 73,2 5,6 8% 29,8 27,9 23,7 5y 29,8 6,9 23% 16,2 11,0 6,9 6,9 10y 27,9 4,9 18% 4,6 5,6 4,9 3,2 3,7 0,0 2,7 1,2 1,0 15y 11,0 3,2 29% TCT 13 w 26 w 52 w 2y 5y 10 y 15 y 20 y 30 y 20y 16,2 3,7 22% 30y 6,9 1,0 15% Money Market By Analysis & Research Department Increase in the RRR from 2% to 4% The end of the required reserve period has shown a large surplus of over MAD 24.0 billion. This reflects the continued improvement in foreign exchange reserves inducing a drop in the liquidity needs of the banking system, falling from MAD 18.2 billion by the end of December 2015 to MAD 2.4 billion by the end of May 2016.
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