Mihkel Meidla University of Tartu Estonia

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Mihkel Meidla University of Tartu Estonia Mihkel Meidla University of Tartu Estonia 1 TheThe purposepurpose ofof thethe studystudy ►►ReviewReview ofof generalgeneral traffictraffic safetysafety situationsituation inin EstoniaEstonia ►►RiskRisk assessmentassessment ofof carcar makesmakes -- basedbased onon EstonianEstonian nationalnational safetysafety statisticsstatistics ofof registeredregistered ((injuriousinjurious oror fatalfatal)) accidentsaccidents ►►ElaborationElaboration ofof mostmost dangerousdangerous carcar makesmakes 2 CurrentCurrent situationsituation inin traffictraffic safetysafety ►►ComparedCompared toto otherother EuropeanEuropean countriescountries thethe situationsituation isis unsatisfactoryunsatisfactory!! ►►EstonianEstonian NationalNational TrafficTraffic SafetySafety ProgrammeProgramme CC VisionVision 100:100: LessLess thanthan 100100 fatalitiesfatalities atat 20152015 (168(168 inin 2005)2005) 3 RoadRoad fatalitiesfatalities perper 11 millionmillion populationpopulation Russian Federation Poland 2004 Czech Republic 1990 Greece Hungary Estonia 126 278 Portugal Spain Slovak Republic Belgium Austria Italy Ireland France Denmark Finland Germany United King dom Norway Sweden Netherlands 4 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Road accidents in 600 500 400 300 Estonia 1991-2005 200 100 0 Fatalities Injuries 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 3600 1997 3000 1998 1999 2400 2000 2001 1800 2002 1200 2003 2004 600 2005 0 5 MotorizationMotorization developmentdevelopment inin EstoniaEstonia ((carscars perper 10001000 populationpopulation)) 400 350 300 250 200 150 Non used cars elimination from the register (based on technical insepction and 100 insurance data) 50 Car ownership(cars perof 1000 population) 0 2 0 1981 1986 1991 199 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 200 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 6 EvaluatingEvaluating traffictraffic safetysafety ofof differentdifferent carcar makesmakes DATADATA SOURCES:SOURCES: ► RoadRoad accidentaccident datadata fromfrom thethe accidentaccident databasedatabase ofof EstonianEstonian RoadRoad AdministrationAdministration ((injuryinjury andand fatalfatal accidentsaccidents);); ► MotorMotor vehiclevehicle kilometragekilometrage datadata fromfrom EstonianEstonian MotorMotor VehicleVehicle RegistrationRegistration CentreCentre (ARK);(ARK); 7 StructureStructure ofof thethe accidentaccident databasedatabase Sources: Road Administration EMVRC 8 Representation of car makes in Estonian register 9 2005 Percentage 2003 Change 2005-2003 Lada (VAZ) 58 593 12% 60 853 -2 260 Ford 57 415 12% 49 749 7 666 Opel 48 426 10% 42 359 6 067 Volkswagen 43 850 9% 30 170 13 680 Audi 31 592 7% 21 865 9 727 BMW 20 838 4% 15 636 5 202 Nissan 20 685 4% 17 918 2 767 Moskvitch 19 324 4% 21 815 -2 491 Toyota 18 965 4% 15 050 3 915 Mazda 18 692 4% 15 231 3 461 Mercedes 15 764 3% 12 534 3 230 Honda 13 566 3% 11 039 2 527 Peugeot 12 138 3% 8 974 3 164 Mitsubishi 11 147 2% 9 893 1 254 Volvo 10 976 2% 9 754 1 222 Fiat 6810 1% 6 736 74 10 ZAZ 6554 1% 6 981 -427 AverageAverage kilometragekilometrage ofof carcar makesmakes GAZ (VOLGA) 2640 MOSKVITCH 3709 LADA 3724 FORD 8346 OPEL 12987 SKODA 15239 AUDI 15763 VOLKSWAGEN 15957 BMW 16517 SUZUKI 16549 HONDA 16675 RENAULT 16751 NISSAN 17357 VOLVO 17655 MERCEDES 17725 TOYOTA 18339 PEUGEOT 18413 SEAT 19016 CHRYSLER 20275 CITROEN 21027 11 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 AnnualAnnual exposureexposure ofof carcar makesmakes (millions km) GAZ (VOLGA) MOSKVITCH SKODA SEAT SUZUKI CHRYSLER CITROEN RENAULT LADA VOLVO HONDA PEUGEOT TOYOTA NISSAN MERCEDES BMW FORD OPEL AUDI VOLKSWAGEN 12 0,0 100,0 200,0 300,0 400,0 500,0 600,0 IndicatorsIndicators:: ► General exposure of cars, shared between car makes ► Accident risk ratio: No of accidents/driven km ► Accident severity risk: No of fatalities/injuries ► Fatality risk ratio: No of fatalities/driven km 13 SAAB MITSUBISHI VW A UDI NISSA N VOLVO CHRY SLER SEAT Casualty accidents BMW per driven 1 million km. MB MA Z DA d HY UNDA I i rg TOYOTA a m HONDA to u A OPEL RENA ULT MOSKVITS KIA MUUD SUZUKI SKODA FIAT PEUGEOT FORD CITROEN LADA 02468101214 Liiklusõnnetused/1 000 000 km MITSUBISHI HONDA Ratio of fatalities and RENA ULT PassPass ohoh graafikgraafikinjuries siiasiia by car makes VW A UDI FORD FIAT MB PEUGEOT LADA argid NISSAN utom A OPEL BMW MA Z DA VOLVO SEAT TOYOTA CHRY SLER SUZUKI MOSKVITS 0,000 0,050 0,100 0,150 0,200 0,250 0,300 0,350 Hukkunuid vigastatute kohta 15 MITSUBISHI HONDA AUDI VWPassPass reaalreaal graafikgraafikFatalities per siiasiia 1 million km RENA ULT shared by car makes NISSA N MB VOLVO d BMW OPEL argi MA ZDA utom PEUGEOT A FORD TOYOTA CHRY SLER LADA FIA T SEAT SUZUKI MOSKVITS 0,0 0,4 0,8 1,2 1,6 2,0 16 Hukkunuid 1 miljoni km kohta MoskvichMoskvich // IIŽŽ 17 TheThe resultsresults andand conclusionconclusion ► Car makes with very high risk- Moskvich and Suzuki ► High risk: Chrysler and Seat ► Low risk: Audi, Honda, Mitsubishi ja Volkswagen ► NCAP test can’t be compared with this research ► Traffic safety situation Estonia is getting better but it needs extra resources 18 ThankThank YouYou!! 19.
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