Mihkel Meidla University of Tartu Estonia
1 TheThe purposepurpose ofof thethe studystudy
►►ReviewReview ofof generalgeneral traffictraffic safetysafety situationsituation inin EstoniaEstonia
►►RiskRisk assessmentassessment ofof carcar makesmakes -- basedbased onon EstonianEstonian nationalnational safetysafety statisticsstatistics ofof registeredregistered ((injuriousinjurious oror fatalfatal)) accidentsaccidents
►►ElaborationElaboration ofof mostmost dangerousdangerous carcar makesmakes 2 CurrentCurrent situationsituation inin traffictraffic safetysafety
►►ComparedCompared toto otherother EuropeanEuropean countriescountries thethe situationsituation isis unsatisfactoryunsatisfactory!!
►►EstonianEstonian NationalNational TrafficTraffic SafetySafety ProgrammeProgramme CC VisionVision 100:100: LessLess thanthan 100100 fatalitiesfatalities atat 20152015 (168(168 inin 2005)2005)
3 RoadRoad fatalitiesfatalities perper 11 millionmillion populationpopulation
2004 1990 Russian Federation
Poland
Czech Republic 126 Greece 278 Hungary
Estonia
Portugal
Spain
Slovak Republic
Belgium
Austria
Italy
Ireland
France
Denmark
Finland
Germany
United King dom
Norway
0Sweden 50 100 150 200 250 300 Netherlands 4 RoadRoad accidentsaccidents inin EstoniaEstonia 1991-20051991-2005
600 3600
500 3000
400 2400
300 1800
200 1200
Fatalities 100 600 Injuries
0 0 0 03 04 05 01 02 0 0 0 6 98 99 00 0 0 2 2 2 2 94 95 9 9 2 2 2 91 9 9 99 1997 1 1 9 1 1 1 1 199 1993 5 MotorizationMotorization developmentdevelopment inin EstoniaEstonia ((carscars perper 10001000 populationpopulation))
400
350
300
250
200
150 Non used cars elimination from the register (based on technical insepction and 100 insurance data)
50 Car ownership(cars perof 1000 population)
0
2 1981 1986 0 1991 199 1993 1994 6 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 200 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 EvaluatingEvaluating traffictraffic safetysafety ofof differentdifferent carcar makesmakes
DATADATA SOURCES:SOURCES: ► RoadRoad accidentaccident datadata fromfrom thethe accidentaccident databasedatabase ofof EstonianEstonian RoadRoad AdministrationAdministration ((injuryinjury andand fatalfatal accidentsaccidents););
► MotorMotor vehiclevehicle kilometragekilometrage datadata fromfrom EstonianEstonian MotorMotor VehicleVehicle RegistrationRegistration CentreCentre (ARK);(ARK);
7 StructureStructure ofof thethe accidentaccident databasedatabase
Sources: Road Administration
EMVRC 8 Representation of car makes in Estonian register
9 2005 Percentage 2003 Change 2005-2003 Lada (VAZ) 58 593 12% 60 853 -2 260 Ford 57 415 12% 49 749 7 666 Opel 48 426 10% 42 359 6 067 Volkswagen 43 850 9% 30 170 13 680 Audi 31 592 7% 21 865 9 727 BMW 20 838 4% 15 636 5 202 Nissan 20 685 4% 17 918 2 767 Moskvitch 19 324 4% 21 815 -2 491 Toyota 18 965 4% 15 050 3 915 Mazda 18 692 4% 15 231 3 461 Mercedes 15 764 3% 12 534 3 230 Honda 13 566 3% 11 039 2 527 Peugeot 12 138 3% 8 974 3 164 Mitsubishi 11 147 2% 9 893 1 254 Volvo 10 976 2% 9 754 1 222 Fiat 6810 1% 6 736 74 10 ZAZ 6554 1% 6 981 -427 AverageAverage kilometragekilometrage ofof carcar makesmakes
GAZ (VOLGA) 2640 MOSKVITCH 3709 LADA 3724 FORD 8346 OPEL 12987 SKODA 15239 AUDI 15763 VOLKSWAGEN 15957 BMW 16517 SUZUKI 16549 HONDA 16675 RENAULT 16751 NISSAN 17357 VOLVO 17655 MERCEDES 17725 TOYOTA 18339 PEUGEOT 18413 SEAT 19016 CHRYSLER 20275 CITROEN 21027
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 11 AnnualAnnual exposureexposure ofof carcar makesmakes (millions km)
GAZ (VOLGA)
MOSKVITCH
SKODA
SEAT
SUZUKI
CHRYSLER
CITROEN
RENAULT
LADA
VOLVO
HONDA
PEUGEOT
TOYOTA
NISSAN
MERCEDES
BMW
FORD
OPEL
AUDI
VOLKSWAGEN 12 0,0 100,0 200,0 300,0 400,0 500,0 600,0 IndicatorsIndicators::
► General exposure of cars, shared between car makes
► Accident risk ratio: No of accidents/driven km
► Accident severity risk: No of fatalities/injuries
► Fatality risk ratio: No of fatalities/driven km
13 SAAB MITSUBISHI VW
A UDI NISSA N VOLVO
CHRY SLER SEAT BMW
MB MA Z DA HY UNDA I
TOYOTA HONDA
OPEL Casualty accidents RENA ULT per driven 1 million km. MOSKVITS
d KIA i rg MUUD a m to u A SUZUKI
SKODA FIAT PEUGEOT
FORD CITROEN LADA
024681012 14 Liiklusõnnetused/1 000 000 km MITSUBISHI HONDA RENA ULT VW A UDI FORD FIAT MB PEUGEOT Ratio of fatalities and LADA PassPass ohoh graafikgraafikinjuries siiasiia by car makes NISSAN OPEL BMW MA Z DA argid VOLVO utom A SEAT TOYOTA CHRY SLER SUZUKI MOSKVITS
0,000 0,050 0,100 0,150 0,200 0,250 0,300 0,350 Hukkunuid vigastatute kohta 15 MITSUBISHI HONDA
AUDI VW RENA ULT NISSA N
MB VOLVO
BMW OPEL PassPass reaalreaal graafikgraafikFatalities per siiasiia 1 million km MA ZDA shared by car makes PEUGEOT FORD d TOYOTA argi
utom CHRY SLER A LADA
FIA T SEAT
SUZUKI MOSKVITS
0,0 0,4 0,8 1,2 1,6 2,0 16 Hukkunuid 1 miljoni km kohta MoskvichMoskvich // IIŽŽ
17 TheThe resultsresults andand conclusionconclusion
► Car makes with very high risk- Moskvich and Suzuki
► High risk: Chrysler and Seat
► Low risk: Audi, Honda, Mitsubishi ja Volkswagen
► NCAP test can’t be compared with this research ► Traffic safety situation Estonia is getting better but it needs extra resources
18 ThankThank YouYou!!
19