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Transport Strategies . CI 3 STUDIES OF ECONOMIESIN TRANSFORMATION '23LAS TransportStrategies . CI3 for the Russian Federation Public Disclosure Authorized Jane Holt 9 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized THE WORLD BANK RECENT STUDIES OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSFORMATION PAPERS No. I Country Department 111,Europe and Central Asia Region, Food and AgriculturalPolicy Reforms in the Former USSR: An Agendafor the Transition No. 2 Michalopoulos and Tarr, Trade and Payments Arrangementsfor States of the Former USSR No. 3 Country Department 111,Europe and Central Asia Region, StatisticalHandbook: States of the Former USSR No. 4 Barr, Income Transfers and the SocialSafety Net in Russia No. 5 Country Department III, Europe and Central Asia Region, ForeignDirect Investmentin the States of the Former USSR No. 6 Wallich, FiscalDecentraliZation: Intergovernmental Retations in Russia No. 7 Michalopoulos, Trade Issuesin the New IndependentStates No. 8 The World Bank, StatisticalHandbook 1993: States of the Former USSR STUDIES OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSFORMATION PAPER NUMBER 9 Transport Strategies for the Russian Federation Jane Holt The World Bank Washington, D.C. Copyright (© 1993 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/THEWORLD BANK 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America First printing September 1993 Papers in the "Studies of Economies in Transformation" series present the results of policy analysis and research on the states of the former USSR. The papers have been prepared by World Bank staff and consultants and issued by the World Bank's Europe and Central Asia Country Department III. Funding for the effort has been provided in part by the Technical Cooperation Program of the World Bank for states of the former USSR. In light of the worldwide interest in the problems and prospects of these countries, dissemination of these findings is encouraged for discussion and comment. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author(s) and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations, or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility whatsoever for any consequence of their use. Any maps that accompany the text have been prepared solely for the convenience of readers; the designations and presentation of material in them do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Bank, its affiliates, or its Board or member countries concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city, or area or of the authorities thereof or concerning the delimitation of its boundaries or its national affiliation. The material in this publication is copyrighted. Requests for permission to reproduce portions of it should be sent to the Office of the Publisher at the address shown in the copyright notice above. The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally give permission promptly and, when the reproduction is for noncommercial purposes, without asking a fee. Permission to copy portions for classroom use is granted through the Copyright Clearance Center, 27 Congress Street, Salem, Massachusetts 01970, U.S.A. The complete backlist of publications from the World Bank is shown in the annual Index of Publications, which contains an alphabetical title list (with full ordering information) and indexes of subjects, authors, and countries and regions. The latest edition is available free of charge from the Distribution Unit, Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A., or from Publications, The World Bank, 66, avenue d'lena, 75116 Paris, France. ISSN: 1014-997X Jane Holt is senior transport financial analyst in the Infrastructure/Energy/Environment Division of Country Department III, Europe and Central Asia Region of the World Bank. Libraryof Congress Cataloging-in-PublicationData Holt, Jane, 1945- Transport strategies for the Russian Federation / Jane Holt. p. cm. - (Studies of economies in transformation, ISSN 1014-997X: paper no. 9.) Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8213-2625-2 1. Transportation-Russia (Federation) 2. Transportation-Russia (Federation)-Planning. 1. Title. 11. Series. HE255.2.H65 1993 388'.068-dc2O 93-32003 CIP Contents Foreword ... ix Abstract ........................................................ xi Acknowledgments .xii Abbreviations and Acronyms ..... xiii Glossary..................................................... xv Overviewand Recommendations ......................................... I i Economic and Financia Performance of Russia's TransportSystem ................ 23 2 Institutional Frameworkfor Transport .................................. 51 3 Railways ..................................................... 59 4 Road Transport. 87 5 Urban Passenger Transport .101 6 Highways ................................................... 107 7 Waterborne Transport ............................................. 121 8 Airlines and Civil Aviation .......................................... 157 9 TransportEquipment Manufacturing ................................... 181 iii Annex A Statistical Summary of Transport Demand Forecasts .................... 193 Annex B Compilation of Primary Transport-Dependent Industry Economic Forecasts for Railways and Waterborne Transport ............................ 195 Annex C Derivation of Estimates of Physical Consumption of Energy in the Russian Transport Sector ..................................... 209 Annex D Compilation of Privatization Acts in the Transport Sector of the Russian Federation ......................................... 215 Annex E Russia's Principal Sea Carriers: Their Fleets and Trading Patterns in 1991 ... .. 245 References ...................................................... 249 NMAS: IBRD 24770R ............................................. 255 IBRD 24771R ............................................. 256 iv Exhibits TEXr 1.1 Russian Freight Transport Task, 1992 Estimates ........................... 24 1.2 Modal Shares of Soviet InternationalTrade Tonnage, 1988 .................... 25 1.3 Transport Ton-Kilometerper Dollar of GDP (Road, Rail and Water) .............. 27 1.4 Volumeof Russian Freight Transport ................................. 28 1.5 Domestic Freight Transport Demand and Its Relationto GNP Growth Rates .... ..... 29 1.6 Energy Transport Demand, 1980to 2015 .............. ................. 32 1.7 Non-EnergyTransport Demand, 1980 to 2015 ............................ 32 1.8 Passenger Demand, 1980 to 2007 ............ ........................ 33 1.9 Russian Rail Passenger Projections ........... ........................ 34 1.10 RussianRail Freight Projections.35 1.11 Actual and Forecast Volumesof Russian Freight Transport, 1991 to 1995 .36 1.12 Actual and Forecast Russian Freight Transport Task .37 1.13 Rail Share of Combined Rail and Truck .38 1.14 Urban PassengerTransport OperationalLosses .39 1.15 FinancingTransport from the State Budget, 1992 .40 1.16 Transport SubsidiesCompared to Total State Budgetedand UnbudgetedSubsidies, 1992 . .41 1.17 Subsidieson Energy Consumption, 1992.42 1.18 Physical Energy Consumptionby Transport Modes, 1992 .43 1.19 Transport Tariff Index Adjustments.45 2.1 Structure of Transport within the Russian Government ....................... 52 2.2 The Ministry of Transport . ....................................... 54 3.1 Coverage and Performanceof the Former USSR RegionalRailways Compared to Other Major Railways, 1990 .............................................. 60 3.2 Soviet and RussianRailway Categories and EmploymentLevels ................. 61 v 3.3 Former USSR Railway Data ....................................... 63 3.4 Russian Railways: Indexed Traffic Trends, 1980 to 1992 ..................... 64 3.5 Percentages of Common Carrier Shipments by Type of Transportation ............. 65 3.6 Rail Freight Traffic Trends in Europe, 1988 to 1992 ........................ 66 3.7 Common Carrier Rail Traffic ...................................... 67 3.8 Daily Wagon Loads in the CIS by Republic ............................. 68 3.9 The Directorate of the CIS Railway Transport Council ....................... 70 3.10 Railway Equipment Production and Delivery Statistics .71 3.11 Number of Track Kilometers Subject to Speed Restrictions .73 3.12 Track Material Deliveries .74 3.13 Locomotive Replacement and Maintenance .74 3.14 Comparision of U.S. and FSU Railway Labor Productivity Levels .75 4.1 Russian Trucking Fleet .......................................... 90 4.2 General Use Road Transport Vehicle Load Capacity, 1970 to 1991 ............... 92 4.3 Actual and Forecast Truck Capacity vs Transport Demand in the Russian For-Hire Trucking Industry, 1990 to 1995 .................................... 93 6.1 Russian Federation Road Network .................................. 108 6.2 Federal Road Conditions (two-lane equivalent) .......................... 110 6.3 Public Road Network Expenditures ................................... 112 6.4 Projected Funding for Public Roads to be Financed from Road Funds, January 1993 ... 113 7.1 Status of the Former Soviet Merchant Fleet, July 1, 1992 .................... 122 7.2 Merchant Fleets of the World ....................................
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