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Ukraine as manufacturing hub Boosting value and reaching global market Introduction Yuliya Kovaliv Head of Office, National Investment Council of Ukraine As a result of changes in global geopolitical and international trade contexts, Ukraine emerged on investors’ radars as one of the key manufacturing hubs in Europe. Its beneficial location, well qualified labor force, affordably priced utilities, extensive transport infrastructure, and profound background in manufacturing make the country very attractive for export-oriented businesses. Historically, Ukraine had one of the strongest expertise in machine building among Eastern European and CIS countries. Designed and manufactured in Ukraine, sea vessels and railcars, motor vehicles and aircrafts were used domestically and exported across the world. Ukraine is known as designer and producer of a number of record-breaking machines like AN-225 Mriya – a famous aircraft with the highest carrying capacity and one the largest wingspan in the world. Up till now, expertise remains one of the principle advantages of Ukraine. In 1991, Ukraine gained independence and followed the course of economic reforms. Liberalized markets and free-trade agreements with 46 countries (the last one signed with Israel in January, 2019) resulted in the growing significance of Ukraine as a regional hub and improved its access to the global supply chain. Figures speak for themselves: export volumes in 11 months of 2018 grew by almost 10% and reached $43 billion, with exports to the EU taking over 42%. Now Ukraine is committed to further strengthen its position in the European and global manufacturing industry. For investors, opportunities are vast – from automotive spare parts production and food processing to shipbuilding and aerospace industry. Since 2014, over 150 new plants and factories were launched in Ukraine, 83 of them with participation of foreign investors. Some 58 more are under construction. We believe it is just the beginning. Office of National Investment Council, supported by European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, provides a platform for public-private dialogue bringing together representatives of business community and key multinational companies, international financial institutions and Ukrainian Government. We are open for investors who plan to expand their business and add Ukraine on the map of production facilities. This report provides a brief outline of the whole variety of investment options in manufacturing. We hope it will be a useful tool to get the broad picture of the industry and its subsectors and make the right choice. 3 Market overview: Why Ukraine 4 2019 | National Investment Council | Manufacturing Market overview: Why Ukraine Strategic geographic location, developed transportation network, high-skilled labor force, low production cost: all of these make Ukraine a great manufacturing hub. Macroeconomic overview Since 2016, Ukraine’s economy has been steadily recovering. Following 16.4% cumulative economic de- cline in 2014-2015 caused by Russian aggression in the Eastern part of Ukraine, GDP grew by 2.4% in 2016, 2.5% in 2017 and expected to grow by 3.4% in 2018. Based on the intense economic reforms and inherent competitive advantages, Ukraine is expected to achieve higher rates of economic growth in the coming years. Its big promising market and integration with EU has great opportunities for increase in consumption and investments, particularly in manufacturing. Real GDP rate Period: 2012-2020 Score: %, y-o-y 0.2 0.0 3.8 3.0 -6.6 3.4 2.5 2.4 -9.8 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine, Ministry of Economic Development and Trade Real GDP rate Period: 2012-2020 Score: %, y-o-y 5 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F -5 -10 Ukraine Eastern Europe European Union Source: International Monetary Fund 5 Market overview: Why Ukraine Ukrainian economy has been growing 12 quarters in a row Reforms and regulatory policy in financial sector resulted in dramatic reduction of both external and internal economic imbalances. Inflation has been successfully slowed down as well. International reserves have been increased substantially to USD 20.82 billion updating a 5-year record. They are sufficient to meet government’s obligations and cover current operations of National Bank. International reserves Period: 2014-2018 Score: billion USD 20.82 18.81 15.54 13.30 7.53 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: National Bank of Ukraine Inflation rate Period: 2014-2020 Score: %, y-o-y 43.3 24.9 12.4 13.7 9.8 7.3 6 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F Source: National Bank of Ukraine, International Monetary Fund 6 Ukraine in international ratings 2019 | National Investment Council | Manufacturing 7 Ukraine in international ratings Ease of doing business by World Bank The Ease of doing business ranking is developed by the World Bank Group. Higher ranking normally indicates better, usually simpler, regulations for businesses and stronger protections of property rights. Ease of doing business Period: 2014-2019 Rate: out of 190 76 71 83 80 96 112 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: World Bank, Doing Business Reports 30 41 56 in Dealing with position № in Starting № + Construction since 2014 a business Permits Ease of doing business (compared to other developing countries) Period: 2016-2019 Rate: out of 190 38 39 50 59 60 61 71 67 72 83 80 76 77 100 130 130 Ukraine India Bulgaria Greece 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: World Bank, Doing Business Reports 8 Ukraine in international ratings Global Innovation Index Global Innovation Index is the result of a collaboration between Cornell University, INSEAD, and the World Intellectual Property (WIPO). Index provides detailed metrics about the innovation performance of 126 countries and economies around the world. Global Innovation Index Global Innovation Index Period: 2016-2018 (compared to other developing countries) Rate: out of 126 Period: 2018 Rate: out of 126 43 49 43 57 50 74 56 2016 2017 2018 Ukraine India Romania Greece Source: World Intellectual Property Organization Source: World Intellectual Property Organization EBA Investment Attractiveness Index Investment Attractiveness Index is the European Business Association’s research project which reflects the status of Ukrainian business climate based on expert evaluations provided by top-managers from member companies. EBA Investment Attractiveness Index Period: 2012-2018 Rate: out of 5 3.15 3.1 3.07 2.88 2.85 3.03 2.72 2.74 2.65 2.66 2.56 2.57 2.39 2.5 2.51 2.18 2.19 2.14 2.12 2.12 2.17 1.81 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I-II III-IV I-II III-IV I-II III-IV 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018 Source: European Business Association 9 Ukraine in international ratings Human Capital Index The World Economic Forum’s Human Capital Report ranks 157 countries on how well they are developing and deploying their talent. position out No. 50 of 157 countries Human Capital Index (compared with other developing countries) Period: 2018 Rate: out of 130/130/157 50 48 42 114 Ukraine India Bulgaria Greece Source: World Bank, Global Human Capital Report 10 Location and infrastructure 2019 | National Investment Council | Manufacturing 11 Location and infrastructure Ukraine is the largest country in Europe by area, and 7th by population. Its favorable geographic location makes the country a natural transportation link between Europe, Russia and Central Asia Area: Population: 603,000 km2 42.3 million people Key economic sectors: Borders: Seas: Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, the Black sea and Romania, Moldova, Russia the Sea of Azov (borders with Turkey, Bulgaria, Georgia, Russia) 12 Location and infrastructure Association Agreement with Eurasian Hub, Trade World Trade the European Hub to the EU, Organization Union, Deep and Middle East and Asia Member Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement with the EU Free Trade Agreements with: EU, EFTA, Canada, Georgia, Israel, Macedonia, Montenegro, totally covering 46 countries. On-going negotiations with Turkey Transportation network Ukraine has the most extensive railroad network in Europe handling a substantial part of passenger and freight traffic. Country’s road network is no less extensive, it covers all the territory and makes deliveries possible to any point of destination. Low cost, developed deep-water ports and upcoming reconstruction of river waterways will help maritime transportation become worthy alternative to its rail and road counterparts. Logistics Performance Index 2018 by World Bank LPI International Logistics Tarcking Country Year Customs Infrastructure Timeliness Rank shipments competence & tracing Germany 2018 1 1 1 4 1 2 3 Italy 2018 19 23 18 21 24 18 17 Poland 2018 28 33 35 12 29 31 23 Hungary 2018 31 27 30 43 38 26 32 Romania 2018 48 80 51 48 47 41 39 Croatia 2018 49 39 46 58 45 61 47 Bulgaria 2018 52 42 64 41 55 59 65 Ukraine 2018 66 89 119 68 61 52 56 Moldova 2018 116 124 141 90 122 142 82 13 Location and infrastructure Roads Railway 443,000 km of road network 20,900 km operational length of railways 169,500 km of public roads 3,800 locomotives 8,600 km of international road routes 168,000 freight wagons 19 European road routes 3 international railway corridors pass through Ukraine Port infrastructure 13 sea ports 263 berths with 40 km length Draught up to 19 m – port Yuzhny, 14 m – port Chernomorsk, 13 m – port Odessa 2,100 km of inland waterways 9 E85 101 E38 E373 101 E373 E85 9 2 0 101 0 0 0 Lviv Kiv 0 ariv E583 1 0 E58 0 0 10 0 0 0 9 0 E85 E583 0 0 niro 0 E573 0 0 onets 0 E58 1 E584 10 E58 E584 9 E58 E58 E58 E58 1 essa 9 10 E87 E87 10 9 Roads Railway Sea port 14 Location and infrastructure Port infrastructure Molaiv lvia etiars Mariuol erians Yun erson esa enices Illicivs aovs iloronistrovs Reni Kerch Imail Yevatoriia eoosiia evastool Yalta Source: Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine Ukraine holds a leading position with the most powerful port potential within the Black Sea region.
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