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;-.. ; : s -- 0--21297 .4 { Public Disclosure Authorized VehicleFle'et Public Disclosure Authorized Characterizationin CentralAsia and, the Caucasus Public Disclosure Authorized Reportfor the RegionalStudy on: CleanerTransportation FuelIs for UrbanAir QualityImprovement Public Disclosure Authorized inCentralAsia -and the Caucasus Vehicle Fleet Characterization in Central Asia and the Caucasus Report for the Regional Study on: Cleaner Transportation Fuels for Urban Air Quality Improvement in Central Asia and the Caucasus Canadian International Development Agency Joint UNDPlWorld Bank Energy Sector ManagementAssistance Programme (ESMAP) Contents Acknowledgments ............................................... vii Abbreviations and Acronyms ............................................... ix Executive Summary ............................................... xi Vehicle Technology in Central Asia and the Caucasus........................................ xii Fleet Octane Requirements ........................................ xiii Inspection and Maintenance Programs ........................................ xiv Uzbekistan's Natural Gas Conversion Program ........................................ xvi Conclusions and Recommendations ....................................... xvii 1 Introduction ................................................ 1 1.1 Objectives .1 1.2 Background .2 Impact of Fuel on Vehicle Emissions .2 Long Range Effects of Emissions .2 Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases .2 Impact of Fuel on Vehicle Technology. 3 1.3 Study Methodology.3 2 General Description of the Russian-Made Vehicle Fleet .......................................... 7 2.1 Octane Requirements .7 2.2 Light-Duty Gasoline Vehicles .8 2.3 Light-Duty Diesel Vehicles .9 2.4 Alternate-Fueled Light-Duty Vehicles .9 2.5 Heavy-Duty Gasoline Vehicles .10 2.6 Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles .10 iii Cleaner Transportation Fuels for Urban Air Qualitv Management 2.7 Alternate-Fueled Heavy-Duty Vehicles .................................... 11 2.8 Technical Considerations for Lead Phaseout..................................... 11 2.9 Benefits of Lead Phaseout .................................... 13 3 Fleet Octane Demand ....................................... 15 3.1 Octane Requirements .15 Heavy-Duty Vehicles .15 Light-Duty Vehicles .15 3.2 Future Trends in Fleet Fuel Requirements .17 3.3 Sensitivity Analysis .28 3.4 Uzbekistan Natural Gas Vehicle Program.33 CNG Vehicle Fleet and Fueling Infrastructure .33 Planned Large-Scale Conversion of Vehicle Fleet to CNG.33 Current Status of CNG Conversions of the Vehicle Fleet .34 Air Quality and I/M Program Considerations .35 4 Inspection and Maintenance Programs............................. 37 4.1 Emissions standards for in-use vehicles.37 4.2 Emissions Measurement Equipment .3 4.3 Frequency of Measurement and Institutional Setting.40 4.4 Record-Keeping and Evaluation of I/M Program Effectiveness .40 4.5 Assessment of Current I/M Program Procedures .40 4.6 Assessment of Program Implementation and Effectiveness .42 4.7 Future Equipment Needs .43 4.8 A Remote sensing Pilot Project for I/M Programs in Central Asia and the Caucasus 44 Limitations .45 Costs .46 iv Contents Vehicle Fleet Database ...................... 46 Collaborating Agencies ...................... 46 Training and Technical Support ...................... 46 Field Implementation...................... 47 Location and Duration ...................... 47 Expected Benefits ...................... 47 4.9 Country-Specific Information...................... 47 Azerbaijan ...................... 48 Georgia ...................... 48 Kazakhstan ...................... 49 Uzbekistan ...................... 50 5 Conclusions and Recommendations.53 References and Selected Bibliography.55 Appendix A Vehicle Fleet Data, Fuel Requirements, and Future Projections .57 Appendix B Sensitivity Analysis .61 v Acknowledgments This report was prepared as part of a broader regional study, "Cleaner Transportation Fuels for Urban Air Quality Improvement in Central Asia and the Caucasus," undertaken jointly by the Energy and Environmentally & Socially Sustainable Development Departments of the Europe and Central Asia Region, the Environment Department, and the Oil, Gas and Chemicals Department of the World Bank Group. The study was supported by the joint UNDP (United Nations Development Programme)/World Bank Sector Management Assistance Programme (ESMAP) and the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA). The financial assistance of the Government of the United Kingdom through ESMAP is gratefully acknowledged. The report is based on the work carried out in 1999 by Greg Rideout and Jacek Rostkowski of Environment Canada and Professor Deniz Karman of Carleton University, with technical contributions from and data collection by Mr. Rauf Salimov, Department Chief, State Committee on Statistics, Mr. Agil A. Shikhaliyev, Head of Technical Department, Azerautonaglivyat, and Mr. Ramiz Rafiyev, Assistant Director, Ekomerkez (State Center for Ecology) in Azerbaijan; Mr. Aleksander Bogdanchikov, Chief of Department for Fuel Economy, Toxicity Reduction and Operating Materials, Research Institute of Transport in Kazakhstan; Mr. Vladimir A. Glazovsky, Head, Enviromnental Department, Ministry of the Nature Environrmental and Protection in Turkmenistan; Mr. Farkhad Sabirov, Head Specialist, Main Department of Air Protection, State Committee for Nature Protection, and Professor Edward Pyadichev, Tashkent Automobile and Road Construction Institute, and Radian International representative in Uzbekistan. In addition, the following individuals contributed to technical discussions covered in this report: Azerbaijan Mr. Mirzakhan Mansimov, Vice-chairman. State Committee for Hydrometeorology Dr. Rauf B. Mouradov, Director of Project Implementation Unit, Azerbaijan Republic State Committee on Ecology and Control of Natural Resources Utilization. Mr. Rasim Sattarzade, State Committee on Ecology, National Coordinator for Cleaner Fuels Study Georgia Mr. Shalva Ogbaidze, Secretary General, Georgian Automobile Federation Ms. Lia Todua, Head, Division of International Programmes, Main Division of Air Protection, Ministry of Environment Kazakhstan Mr. Mambet Malimbayev, Director, National Center for Complex Raw Mineral Processing Turkmenistan Mr. Yuri Fedorov, Director, Research and Production Center of Ecological Monitoring, Ministry of the Nature Protection Ms. Amanniyazova Ludmila, Chief of Division, National Institute of Statistics and Forecasting (Turkmenststatprognoz). Vii Cleaner Transportation Fuels for Urban Air Quality Management Uzbekistan Mr. Sergei Grigory,vich Lyubishin, Urban Transport Specialist, Project Implementation Unit. Ministry of Auto Transport (Uzavtotrans) Mr. Albert M. Bagdasarov, Deputy General Director. NPO Uzavtotranstehnika, Uzavtotrans. Mr. Sarvar M. Kodirov, Rector. Tashkent Automobile and Road Construction Institute Ms. Nadejda Dotsenko, Chief, Main Department of Air Protection. State Committee for Nature Protection. Ms. Alla Chirkova. Principal Specialist, International Cooperation and Programmes Department, State Committee for Nature Protection. Ms. Tamara Haybrahmanova Saidova, Emissions Measurement Specialist, State Committee for Nature Protection. Mr. Gulyama Shukhrat Naktevich, Center for Ecology, GAI Ms. Olga V. Tsipinyuk, General Director. Tashkent Productive Commercial Firm The World Bank team includes Masami Kojima (task manager) and Robert Bacon of the Oil. Gas and Chemicals Department; and Martin Fodor and Magda Lovei (co-task manager) of the Environment Department. The team wishes to thank the editorial assitance of Nancy Levine for some sections of this report. viii Abbreviationsand Acronyms ASM acceleration simulation mode inspection program CNG compressed natural gas CO carbon monoxide CO2 carbon dioxide CONCAWE Conservation of Clean Air and Water in Europe EPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ESMAP Joint UNDP/World Bank Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme ESP Environmental Systems Products EU European Union FSU former Soviet Union FTP U.S. Federal Test Procedure for vehicle emissions testing GAF Georgia Automobile Federation GAI state road police GDP gross domestic product GNP gross national product HC hydrocarbons I/M inspection and maintenance IM240 vehicle emission test procedure based on the first 240 seconds of the federal test procedure (FTP) LNG liquefied natural gas MON motor octane number NIS newly independent states NMA National Motorists Association NMHC nonmethane hydrocarbons NO, oxides of nitrogen NPO Scientific Research and Production Center, Uzbekistan 02 oxygen OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development PKF Tashkent Productive Commercial Firm PM particulate matter RON research octane number rpm revolutions per minute SO2 sulfur dioxide ix Cleaner Transportation Fuels for Urban Air Quality Management THC total hydrocarbons UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNECE Economic Commission for Europe USEPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency USTDA U.S. Trade and Development Agency VKT vehicle kilometers traveled cm3 cubic centimeters g gram g/l grams per liter hp horsepower kg kilogram km kilometer (103 meters) km/h kilometers per hour I liter mm millimeter (10-3 meter) ,um micron (1 0-6 meter) x ExecutiveSummary Emissions from consumption of fuel by a variety of sources, including industry, energy, households, and transport, contribute to some of the pressing environmental concerns around the world. Urban air pollution is associated
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