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Automotive Market in Russia and the CIS Industry Overview February 2010 Contents

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Automotive Market in Russia and the CIS Industry Overview February 2010 Contents Automotive market in Russia and the CIS Industry overview February 2010 Contents Opening statement .............................................................................. 1 Russian economy ..................................................................................2 Russian automotive market in a global context ...................................... 4 Russian automotive industry ................................................................ 6 Light vehicle market ............................................................................. 7 Commercial vehicle (CV) market ......................................................... 10 Automotive components market ..........................................................11 Passenger car loan market .................................................................. 12 Dealership networks ........................................................................... 13 Automotive logistics ........................................................................... 14 CIS automotive markets ...................................................................... 15 Ukraine ......................................................................................... 15 Kazakhstan ................................................................................... 16 Belarus ......................................................................................... 17 Uzbekistan .................................................................................... 18 Ernst & Young’s involvement in the automotive industry ....................... 19 Contacts ............................................................................................ 20 List of acronyms and initialisms ........................................................... 21 Opening statement Dear Reader, • Russia’s heavy truck market grew This report outlines our view of the current rapidly in mid-decade, and is still the situation on the Russian and the CIS 2009 was one of the most challenging years largest single truck market in Europe automotive markets as well as our outlook for the Russian automotive industry: despite a recent significant decline in for possible market development in the • What had been the fastest growing production. following years. Despite the recent light vehicle market in the world in slowdown in sales volumes, we remain • The Russian automotive component mid-2008 is now just a memory; rapid positive about the long-term prospects for manufacturing sector is experiencing a growth had been spurred by low the Russian automotive industry and very difficult period and the local unemployment and interest rates, and believe that the next few years will be supplier base lacks competitiveness expanded access to credit. extremely important as the industry’s new and major global suppliers. • Currently, unemployment has surged competitive landscape develops. In such • Automotive retail has been severely above 8%, GDP contracted by 7.9% in challenging yet promising times for the impacted by liquidity issues due to 2009 and is expected to recover automotive business, we would be glad to huge vehicle inventories built up in slightly in 2010, and decline in share with you our market experience and 2008 and high leverage intended for consumer confidence, real wages and assist you through prudent investment as aggressive expansion. credit availability have pushed auto well as risk, operational and cost sales lower. management advisory services. • Light vehicle sales were down by almost 50% in 2009 compared to a year earlier, but there are signs of optimism as improving credit conditions and soon to-be-introduced scrapping incentives are expected to help reverse the trend in 2010. Ivan Bonchev CIS Automotive Leader Automotive market in Russia and the CIS — Opening statement 1 Russian economy The Russian economy - like the global in domestic demand, further postponing liquidity re-accumulate and kick-started economy - faced significant challenges in economic recovery. To combat these growth. The brightening of the economy 2009. Feeling the pressure of the global conditions, the Government of the Russian has improved the situation in the labor economic downturn and low commodity Federation initiated a major support market, with unemployment slowly prices, the domestic economy entered the program with the main aim of maintaining retreating. However, despite the positive year on a downward trend with a current liquidity in the economy through signs, the economy was still stagnant as the depreciating local currency and slumping direct injections and lending auctions, while banking sector remained hesitant to exports. The situation was further at the same time supporting domestic provide sufficient financing to enable a aggravated by the global liquidity squeeze manufacturers by imposing additional quick recovery of domestic industries. which, coupled with the weak domestic restrictions on imports. The first signs of actual economic growth in banking sector, has negatively affected As a result of these measures, by mid-2009 Russia materialized in the second half of Russian industrial output and fueled rising the economic situation had stabilized and a 2009. Supported by stable commodity unemployment. At the same time, welcome uptick in commodity prices helped prices, the energy sector was the first to depressed consumer confidence put a dent Nominal and real GDP growth US$ billion % y-o-y 2,000 10 7.7 % 1,500 8.1 % 7.3 % 7.2 % 6.4 % 5.6 % 1,000 4.4 % 5 2.8 % 500 3.5 % 432 589 763 989 1,289 1,472 1,263 1,523 1,708 1,916 0 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 F2010 F2011 F2012 -5 -7.9 % -10 Nominal GDP Real GDP growth Sources: Rosstat, Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, IHS Global Insight, Business Monitor International, Ernst & Young estimates 2 Automotive market in Russia and the CIS — Russian economy overcome the impact of the economic the Russian ruble ultimately began to rise year were critical in ultimately stabilizing downswing and helped to lift overall against the major international currencies the economy. However, it should be noted domestic demand. At the same time, the as the domestic balance of payment got that government help now becomes industrial sector also began to recover after some backing. a potential hazard to future economic carrying out major restructuring initiatives growth, as the Government may be The bottom line is that 2009 was so and working to improve liquidity. The tempted to withdraw its fiscal stimuli too dramatic that the interventions that overall recovery has ultimately translated early for a stable platform of growth to be occurred have raised questions over the into an improvement of the domestic stock created, or too late as the Russian economy Government’s proper role in supporting the market, which has started to recoup losses starts to overheat. Russian economy. It is a given that the incurred since the last quarter of 2008. liquidity injections at the beginning of the Based on these solid fundamentals, Macroeconomic indicators 2007 2008 2009 F2010 Population, million 142.2 141.8 141.4 141.1 Nominal GDP, US$ billion 1,282.1 1,650.7 1,238.6 1,513 Nominal GDP, change in % 29.6 28.8 -23.3 19.4 Real GDP, change in % 8.1 5.6 -7.9 3 — 3.5 GDP per capita, US$ 9,018.1 11,643.1 8,916.5 10,719.0 Foreign direct investment, US$ billion 55.1 70.3 40 40.4 Consumer price index, % 11.9 13.3 8.8 6.1 Industrial output, US$ billion 767.1 947.6 663.1 761.5 Industrial output, change in % 7.1 2.3 -10.8 2.6 Spot crude, US$ 70.3 95.7 61.1 70.1 Real income growth, % 12.2 3.4 1.9 2.6 Unemployment rate, % 6.1 7.0 8.2 8.9 Average monthly wages, automotive industry, US$ 548 697.1 422.5* 494.3* Average monthly wages, Russian economy, US$ 530.3 695.5 561.4 655 RUB/US$ 25.6 24.9 31.6 28.8 RUB/EUR 35.1 36.5 44.0 41.1 * Ernst & Young estimates Sources: Rosstat, Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, CBR, IHS Global Insight, Business Monitor International, Ernst & Young estimates Automotive market in Russia and the CIS — Russian economy 3 Russian automotive market in a global context Dramatic declines in consumer demand, impacting both automotive OEMs and more than a decade, while conversely Asian driven largely by the global recession and suppliers alike. North American and markets overall have reached their highest illiquid consumer debt markets, have European light vehicle production and sales levels ever. precipitated a number of negative events levels have reached their lowest levels in 2009 sales of new passenger cars in the top markets, thousands of units China US Japan Germany F2010 Brazil 2009 France 2008 2007 Italy UK India CEE* Russia Spain 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Ernst & Young estimates *CEE: Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey 4 Automotive market in Russia and the CIS — Russian automotive market in a global context In North America, severely depressed As many European governments rolled out increase in Asia in the face of the global consumer demand and the bankruptcy scrapping incentives, vehicle sales were recession, future increases will be relatively filings by Chrysler and General Motors stabilized in 2009, but are expected to fall dependent on a return to growth in the largely curtailed vehicle production during in many markets in 2010. Scrapping North American and European markets, the second quarter of the year and
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