THE POST-SOVIET SPACE AND UZBEKISTAN IN THE INTERNATIONAL DIVISION OF LABOUR FROM TRANSITION TO CAPITAL ACCUMULATION A thesis submitted to The University of Manchester for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Faculty of Humanities 2021 Franco Galdini School of Social Sciences Department of Politics Contents List of Figures 6 List of Acronyms 7 Abstract 10 Declaration and Copyright Statement 11 Acknowledgements 12 INTRODUCTORY CHAPTER 13 From Transition to Capital Accumulation in the Post-Soviet Space 13 0. INTRODUCTION 13 1. FROM TRANSITION TO CAPITAL ACCUMULATION: POSITIONING THE THESIS, RESEARCH QUESTIONS, AND CONTRIBUTION 14 2. METHODOLOGY AND RESEARCH METHODS 21 2.1. Form analysis: Global content, national forms 21 2.2. Class and Internal relations 22 2.3. Levels of generality 24 2.4. Research methods 25 3. CHAPTER STRUCTURE AND KEY ARGUMENTS 26 4. THE LIMITS OF THE DISSERTATION 31 5. CONCLUSION 32 CHAPTER 1 34 A Monopoly on ‘Normality’: A Review of the Literature on Transition as Development 34 0. INTRODUCTION 34 1. DEVELOPMENT IN TRANSITION 35 1.1. Neoliberal theory 35 1.2. Developmental state theory 37 1.3. Dependency theory 41 1.4. Methodological nationalism common to the literature 43 2. ON ‘NORMALITY’ AND EXCEPTIONALISM (1): TRANSITOLOGY IN THE FSU 44 2.1. The roaring 1990s: (revolutionary) shock therapy and (evolutionary) gradualism 46 2.2. Permanent exceptionalism: From the 2000s to today 51 3. ON ‘NORMALITY’ AND EXCEPTIONALISM (2): TRANSITOLOGY IN UZBEKISTAN 54 3.1. Neoliberal transitology: Uzbekistan as negatively exceptional 55 3.1.a. The 1990s: Non/slow/late reform and the ‘Uzbek growth puzzle’ 55 3.1.b. From the 2000s until today: Permanent exceptionalism and the enduring ‘paradox’ of no transition and transformation 60 3.2. Developmental transitology: Uzbekistan as positively exceptional 62 3.2.a. The rise of the Uzbek model in the 1990s 62 3.2.b. The 2000s to today: State-led upgrading as alternative to neoliberalism 65 2 4. STUCK IN TRANSITION: METHODOLOGICAL NATIONALISM, EXTERNAL RELATIONS, AND IDEAL-TYPE DEMOCRATIC CAPITALISM 68 5. CONCLUSION 70 CHAPTER 2 72 Beyond Exceptionalism: The Political Economy of ‘Resource Rich’ Countries in the International Division of Labour 72 0. INTRODUCTION 72 1. FROM CIDL TO NIDL: EXPLAINING UNEVEN DEVELOPMENT IN THE GPE 74 1.1. The rise of the NIDL: Large-scale industry, labour, and uneven development 76 1.2. National differentiation in the IDL 79 2. THE SPECIFICITY OF ACCUMULATION IN ‘RESOURCE RICH’ COUNTRIES: GROUND-RENT, LAND USE, SURPLUS POPULATION 86 2.1. Forms of ground-rent in capitalism 87 2.1.a. Absolute rent & Simple absolute monopoly rent 88 2.1.b. Differential rents (DRI & DRII) 89 2.2. Ground-rent and ‘backward’ industrialisation: Labour, gender, and surplus population (1) 91 2.3. Primitive accumulation, gender, and surplus population (2) 94 2.4. Land use, gender, and everyday resistance in the age of climate crisis 97 3. BEYOND EXCEPTIONALISM: THE FSU AND UZBEKISTAN AS ‘RESOURCE RICH’ COUNTRIES IN THE IDL 101 4. CONCLUSION 104 CHAPTER 3 106 ‘Unity of the Diverse’: The Post-Soviet Space in the International Division of Labour 106 0. INTRODUCTION 106 1. THE POST-SOVIET STATES AS RAW MATERIAL EXPORTERS IN THE IDL 107 1.1. Before ‘transition’: Decentralisation, fragmentation, dissolution 108 1.2. ‘Unity of the diverse’: Different ‘paths’ of transition, same form of integration 111 2. GROUND-RENT AND ‘BACKWARD’ INDUSTRIALISATION IN THE FSU 114 2.1. The 1990s: Decentralisation, manufacturing collapse, and economic reprimarisation 116 2.2. From the 2000s until today: Different forms, same content 122 3. DIFFERENTIATING THE COST OF REPRODUCTION OF THE WORKING CLASS: CLASS AND STRUGGLE IN THE FSU 128 4. CONCLUSION 133 CHAPTER 4 135 Ground-rent, Labour, and Uzbekistan’s ‘Backward’ Industrialisation in the International Division of Labour 135 0. INTRODUCTION 135 1. ‘UNITY OF THE DIVERSE’: FROM THE ‘UZBEK MODEL’... 136 3 1.1. The why behind the ‘Uzbek model’ 137 1.2. State policies and institutions: ground-rent for ‘backward’ industrialisation 143 2. ...TO ‘LIBERALISATION’ 148 2.1. Different forms, same content 150 3. A CASE STUDY IN ‘BACKWARD’ INDUSTRIALISATION: UZBEKISTAN’S CAR INDUSTRY SINCE 1992 157 3.1. Uzbekistan’s ‘backward’ car manufacturing 158 3.2. Ground-rent, labour, and solvent demand 165 3.3. The car industry since 2016: new players, same game 167 4. CONCLUSION 169 CHAPTER 5 171 Decollectivisation, Social Stratification, Class and Struggle in ‘Resource Rich’ Uzbekistan 171 0. INTRODUCTION 171 1. DECOLLECTIVISATION AND CLASS STRATIFICATION: THE RISE OF A VAST RELATIVE SURPLUS POPULATION 172 1.1. From collective agriculture to private farmers and landless peasants 174 1.2. A vast relative surplus population: peasants, daily workers, labour migrants 179 2. BETWEEN LABOUR AND SURPLUS: DIFFERENTIATING THE COSTS OF REPRODUCTION OF THE WORKING CLASS 183 2.1. Informal: geography, gender, skills 184 2.2. Formal: geography, gender, skills 190 3. CLASS AND STRUGGLE 195 4. CONCLUSION 198 CHAPTER 6 200 Class, Food In/Security, and Everyday Resistance in ‘Resource Rich’ Uzbekistan in the Age of Climate Crisis 200 0. INTRODUCTION 200 1. LAND AND RESOURCE USE AND DEPLETION IN ‘RESOURCE RICH’ UZBEKISTAN 201 1.1. From Aral Sea desiccation... 201 1.2. Agribusiness and industry 206 1.3. … to glacial retreat 208 2. TECHNO-MANAGERIAL ‘SOLUTIONS’, CLASS STRATIFICATION, AND FOOD IN/SECURITY 210 3. WOMEN AND EVERYDAY RESISTANCE BETWEEN CAPITAL ACCUMULATION AND SOCIAL REPRODUCTION 216 4. CONCLUSION 220 CONCLUDING CHAPTER 222 Capital Accumulation in the Post-Soviet Space: Towards a New Research Agenda 222 0. INTRODUCTION 222 1. MAIN ARGUMENTS AND ANSWERS TO THE RESEARCH QUESTIONS 222 4 1.1. Research Question 1 222 1.2. Research Question 2 226 1.3. Research Question 3 227 2. CONTRIBUTION TO THE LITERATURE 231 3. BEYOND EXCEPTIONALISM: TOWARDS A NEW RESEARCH AGENDA 232 APPENDIX 1 236 Map of Uzbekistan 236 APPENDIX 2 237 Fieldwork: List of interviewees and conferences 237 APPENDIX 3 241 GDP growth (annual %) in selected CIS countries (1991-2018) 241 APPENDIX 4 242 Selected International Commodity Prices in USD (1989-2019) 242 APPENDIX 5 243 Uzbekistan’s cotton production (tons) (1989-2019) & cotton exports (mln USD) (1995-2018) 243 Uzbekistan’s & Turkmenistan’s FDIs in mln USD vis-à-vis natural gas price (1992- 2018) 244 Kazakhstan’s FDIs in mln USD vis-à-vis oil price (1992-2018) 245 Uzbekistan’s cotton, gold, and natural gas exports as % of total (selected years) 246 APPENDIX 6 247 History of Uzbekistan’s car industry since 1992 247 Uzbekistan’s car production/exports vis-à-vis total exports in mln USD (1996-2018) 249 APPENDIX 7 250 Uzbekistan’s land use changes, migration, and remittances in mln USD (2000-2010) 250 APPENDIX 8 251 Uzbekistan’s land use change for key crops/1,000 ha (selected years) 251 BIBLIOGRAPHY 252 Word Count: 88,311 words 5 List of Figures Figure 1.1. GDP growth (annual %) in selected CIS countries (1991- 46 2018) Figure 3.1. Selected International Commodity Prices in USD (1989-2019) 116 Figure 4.1. Uzbekistan’s cotton production (tons) (1989-2019) & cotton 149 exports (mln USD) (1995-2018) Figure 4.2.a. Uzbekistan’s & Turkmenistan’s FDIs in mln USD vis-à-vis 151 natural gas price (1992-2018) Figure 4.2.b. Kazakhstan’s FDIs in mln USD vis-à-vis oil price (1992-2018) 152 Figure 4.3. Uzbekistan’s cotton, gold, and natural gas exports as % of 154 total (selected years) Figure 4.4. Uzbekistan’s car production/export vis-à-vis total exports in 162 mln USD (1996-2018) Figure 5.1. Uzbekistan’s land use changes, migration, and remittances in 182 mln USD (2000-2010) Figure 6.1. Uzbekistan’s land use change for key crops/1,000 ha 205 (selected years) 6 List of Acronyms ACRU Antimonopoly Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan ADB Asian Development Bank ADBI Asian Development Bank Institute AGMK Almalyk Mining and Metallurgical Company AR Absolute rent BBC British Broadcasting Corporation BNS Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan CAAN Central Asia Analytical Network CBU Central Bank of Uzbekistan CEE Central and Eastern Europe CER Center for Economic Research (GoU-affiliated) CIA Central Intelligence Agency CIDL Classical International Division of Labour CICP Centre for Research as Practical Criticism CIS Commonwealth of Independent States DMC Daewoo Motor Company DRI/DRII Differential rent I/II EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development EDB Eurasian Development Bank EIU Economist Intelligence Unit EJF Environmental Justice Foundation EOI Export-Oriented Industrialisation E&Y Ernst & Young FAO Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations FDIs Foreign Direct Investments FEZs Free Economic Zones FH Freedom House FSU Former Soviet Union FTA Free Trade Agreement FTUU Federation of Trade Unions of Uzbekistan FW Fieldwork GCF Green Climate Fund GDP Gross Domestic Product GEF Global Environment Facility GM General Motors GosKomGMR Uzbekistan State Committee for Geology and Mineral Resources GosKomStat State Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics GoU Government of Uzbekistan GPE Global political economy HRW Human Rights Watch IACHR Inter-American Commission on Human Rights IAMO Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies ICG International Crisis Group IDL International Division of Labour IEA International Energy Agency IFC International Finance Corporation 7 IFIs International Financial Institutions IFMR Institute of Forecasting and Macroeconomic Research (GoU-affiliated) ILO International