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Foreign Direct Investment and Restructuring in the Automotive Industry in Central and East Europe

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Foreign Direct Investment and Restructuring in the Automotive Industry in Central and East Europe CENTRE FOR THE STUDY OF ECONOMIC & SOCIAL CHANGE IN EUROPE SCHOOL OF SLAVONIC & EAST EUROPEAN STUDIES FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND RESTRUCTURING IN THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY IN CENTRAL AND EAST EUROPE by Slavo Radosevic and Andrew Rozeik SSEES, University College London Working Paper No. 53 March 2005 University College London Centre for the Study of Economic and Social Change in Europe Senate House, Malet Street, London, WC1E 7HU Tel: 44(020) 7863 8517 Fax :44(020) 7862 8641 Email: [email protected] FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND RESTRUCTURING IN THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY IN CENTRAL AND EAST EUROPE 1 by Slavo Radosevic and Andrew Rozeik SSEES, University College London Abstract This paper reviews and explores the major effects of FDI on industry restructuring of the CEE automotive industry. In particular, we are interested if automotive companies have exploited the value creation potential of CEE? Which factors explain the scale and depth of automotive industry restructuring in CEE? What are the economic effects of restructuring the automotive industry in terms of employment, trade and technology? What has been the role of national and EU policies in shaping FDI and restructuring in the CEE automotive industry? Our results suggest that the value creation potential of CEE as a global automotive location has not yet been fully exploited with great differences across countries. A combination of country specific factors (proximity to EU markets, socialist heritage in automotive industry, skilled labour and privatisation policies) coupled with strategies of automotive MNCs have generated different country patterns and very different effects on industry. Improvements in productivity and technology transfer in both embodied (equipment upgrading) and disembodied form (know how) are significant in countries with large FDI in automotive industry. Employment effects are positive in particular in automotive suppliers industry. Privatisation policy in early 1990s which was followed by a policy of attracting Greenfield FDI on the eve of EU accession is crucial in explaining country differences in FDI presence. Automotive investors have foreseen EU accession and in that respect, EU membership will not bring to changes in trend but possibly a deepening of the automotive cluster in central Europe. However, whether this will happen or not will depend on the ability of CEECs to develop sector specific policies which would support the upgrading of local automotive suppliers. 1 This paper has been produced within the Study for the EU DG Employment on "Industrial Restructuring in the Accession Countries", Contract No. VC/2003/0367 coordinated by Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, WIIW 2 Content: 1. INTRODUCTION 2 GLOBALIZATION OF THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY AND THE EMERGENCE OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AS A GLOBAL PRODUCTION LOCATION 2. CEE in the world automotive industry 3. Value creation potential of CEE for auto MNCs 3. RESTRUCTURING OF THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY IN CEE: KEY FEATURES 3.1. CEE as an automotive market 3.2. CEE as an automotive producer 3.2.1. Socialist heritage in automotive industry 3.2.2. Role of the automotive industry in CEE manufacturing 3.2.3. Employment: assemblers and suppliers 3.2.4. Productivity 3.2.5. Trade 3.2.6. Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) 4. MICRO VIEW: ORIGINAL EQUIPMENT MANUFACTURERS (OEMs) IN CEE - KEY DRIVERS OF RESTRUCTURING? 4. 1. Market and production dynamics at firm level 4. 2. OEM and building of local supply base 5. POLICIES INFLUENCING AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY RESTRUCTURING IN CEE 5.1. Tariffs 5.2. FDI and privatisation policies 5. 3. Clusters policy 6. CONCLUSIONS 3 1. INTRODUCTION Since 1989 industrial restructuring of central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has been greatly dependent on foreign direct investment (FDI). These have brought capital, technology, know how and access to foreign markets. Equally, local markets, cost advantages and a skilled labour force have attracted foreign investors. Privatization policy and the EU accession have greatly facilitated this process. The automotive industry 2 is a leading sector in terms of its importance for industry restructuring in CEE. Moreover, it is one of three sectors, in addition to electronics and the clothing industry, in which CEE has become a global production location. Hence, this sector represents very interesting case for understanding how globalization of CEE as an automotive market and production location has affected these economies and industry in particular. Effects of globalisation of CEE in the automotive industry, its determinants as well as its future prospects are still largely unexplored 3. This study is of the review type and aims to explore the major effects of FDI on industry restructuring of the CEE automotive industry. In particular, we are interested if automotive companies have exploited value creation potential of CEE? Which factors explain the scale and depth of automotive industry restructuring in the CEE? What are the economic effects of restructuring of automotive industry in terms of employment, trade and technology? What has been the role of national and EU policies in shaping FDI and restructuring in the CEE automotive industry? Our results suggest that the value creation potential of CEE as global automotive location has not yet been fully exploited. This process has most progressed in the Czech Republic and Hungary, is consolidated in Slovenia and has started in Slovakia and Romania. It is faced with difficulties in Poland while other CEE countries are largely bypassed by automotive networks. A combination of country specific factors (proximity to EU markets, socialist heritage in the automotive industry, skilled labour and privatisation policies) coupled with strategies of automotive MNCs have generated different country patterns and very different effects on the industry. Improvements in productivity and technology transfer in both embodied (equipment upgrading) and disembodied form (know how) are significant in countries with large FDI in the automotive industry. Employment effects are positive in particular in the automotive suppliers industry. Privatisation policy in the early 1990s, which was followed by policy of attracting Greenfield FDI on the eve of EU accession, was crucial in explaining country differences in FDI presence. Automotive investors have foreseen EU accession and in that respect, EU membership will not bring to changes in trends but possibly deepening of automotive clusters in central Europe. However, whether this will happen or not will depend on the ability of CEECs to develop sector specific policies which would support upgrading of local automotive suppliers. The restructuring of the automotive industry evolves around large investors and is based on a good understanding of competitive dynamics and micro-strategies. In terms of an analytical perspective, this requires the blending of economic and international business perspectives which has been followed in this paper. This paper is organised as follows. Part 2 positions CEE within the globalisation process of the automotive industry and try to estimate value creation potential of CEE as production location for MNC. Ultimately, it is this value creation potential that will determine the scope and pace of restructuring in the region. Part 3 analyses major aspects of restructuring the 2 For the purpose of this paper, the automotive industry is defined using NACE classification DM (manufacture of transport equipment) code 34 (manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi- trailers), and SITC classification 78 (road vehicles including air-cushion vehicles). The terms automobile, car, motor, and motor vehicle will be used here interchangeably to mean the same thing. 3 There have been several papers written on the CEE automotive industry (see for example Havas 1997, Havas, 2000, Sadler et al. 1993, Sadler and Swain 1994, Swain 1998, van Tulder and Ruigrok 1998, Richet and Bourassa 2000, Pavlínek 2002, Pavlínek and Smith 1998). These are mostly written from an economic geography or industry perspective. To date there has been very little written on the globalisation of CEE automotive industry from industry restructuring perspective. 4 automotive industry œ employment, productivity, trade and FDI effects. Section 4 analyses the industry from a micro perspective including how MNCs have addressed the issue of local supply base. Part 5 analyses key policies and how they have shaped globalisation and restructuring of the CEE automotive industry. Conclusions summarise the main arguments and derive a few policy ideas. 2. GLOBALIZATION OF THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY AND THE EMERGENCE OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AS A GLOBAL PRODUCTION LOCATION The opening and integration of CEE automotive markets and industry coincided with the emergence of ”new‘ model of competition in world automotive industry. The Sloan Foundation study on automotive industry (Sturgeon and Florida, 1999) concludes that the automotive industry has transited from an older "domestic" model of competition to a new ”global‘ model. The key features of the ”old‘ and new‘ models are summarised in the table below. Table 1: Old and new models of competition in automotive industry ”Old‘ model of competition ”New‘ model of competition ”Domestic‘ model (competition based on "Global" model (day-to- day production functions exporting from home country supply-base) are organized on a regional and global basis) Emerging markets as dumping grounds for old Emerging markets as locations for
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