Local Transport Plan 2011-2026

Home , Port of Hull, River Hull, Travel to Work Area

3. Geographic and Demographic Characteristics

3.1. Introduction The City of Kingston upon Hull is located on the north bank of the River Humber at its confluence with the River Hull. It is some 15km (9.32 Mile) east of the Yorkshire Wolds and about 25km (15.53 mile) west of the North Sea. The River Hull bisects the City in a north-south direction. The location of Hull in its regional context is outlined below in Figure 3.

Figure 3 - Regional Context

Source: Yorkshire and Humber Regional Spatial Strategy (Adopted 2008)

The City forms a semi circle with an average radius of some 7 km (4.34 mile). The pattern of major roads has developed from routes radiating from the historic City Centre to the suburbs and villages beyond. The distribution of major land uses owes much of its origins to the River Hull and the Humber estuary, along which most of the major industries, port areas and docks have developed forming an inverted 'T' shape. The two segments of the City between these industrial areas are primarily housing with significant open areas defining the boundaries of communities.

3.2. Strategic Network A comprehensive road and rail network links the City with the rest of the country. The core road and rail networks are outlined in Figure 4 and

14 Hull City Council Local Transport Plan (2011 – 2026)

Figure 5 and summarised below.

The A63 (T) / A1033 (T) runs through the City on the north bank of the River Humber and provides access to the port to the east and the national motorway network, via the M62, to the west. Access through Hull via the A63 (T) was improved in 2003 by the completion of the A1033 (T) Hedon Road improvement scheme. However, significant congestion and safety problems are still prevalent on A63 Castle Street and the Highways Agency has recently published the Preferred Route for the A63 Castle Street Improvement Scheme. This scheme includes a grade separated solution which aims to improve safety and traffic flow whilst fulfilling the desire of regeneration partners to promote economic revitalisation of the City Centre and the adjacent waterfront. The Government recently announced as part of its Comprehensive Spending Review (C.S.R.) that they would continue working on A63 Castle Street with the intention of starting work post 2015 subject to future funding availability.

Within the City, three sides of a dual carriageway orbital box of roads (Castle Street, Ferensway and Freetown Way) have been constructed which enables the city centre core to be set aside for a pedestrian friendly environment. The possibility remains to upgrade Great Union Street to the east of the city centre to complete the orbital box. In addition a signed ring road surrounds the City from St Andrews Quay in the west to Marfleet in the east; however, this ring road has not been purpose built and runs through sensitive residential areas (as shown in

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Figure 5) and is currently under review.

Kingston upon Hull is one of Yorkshire's major cities and is regionally unique in being a Port City. It is at considerable distance from other major centres, York is some 60 km (37.28 mile) and Leeds some 90 km (55.92 mile) away, and consequently, the City has developed as a sub-regional centre for a wide area on the north bank of the River Humber.

The A15 crosses the estuary at the Humber Bridge and provides access to North and North East Lincolnshire including Scunthorpe, Grimsby and Humberside International Airport. The A1079 has been de-trunked and provides the primary route to York and the north.

Hull City Council Local Transport Plan (2011 – 2026) Figure 4 - Strategic Transport Network – Kingston upon Hull 16

Hull City Council Local Transport Plan (2011 – 2026) Figure 5 - Local Highway Network – Kingston upon Hull 17

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The City is served by the national railway network via the terminus station at Paragon Interchange as shown in Figure 6. While there are no local railway stations within Hull’s administrative boundary, there are stations within the Greater Hull conurbation at Hessle and Cottingham. The capacity of the rail network in and around Hull is, however, restricted by numerous level crossings and the fact that track access is only generally available at present for 16 hours per day between 06:00 and 22:00.

Figure 6 - Strategic Rail Network – Kingston upon Hull

A freight railway, which was formerly part of a more comprehensive network in the City, runs at high level between the main line west of the City to the Hull Docks area to the east. A scheme to increase the number of train paths available from 10 to 22 per day in each direction on this route was opened in June 2008 as part of Yorkshire Forward’s ‘early wins initiative’.

The Port of Hull is part of the biggest port complex in the country and continues to expand to offer a wide range of freight and passenger services to destinations across Europe and the rest of the world although growth in port traffic has been hit by the current economic climate.

Humberside International Airport is 20 miles (32 km) away from the City while Leeds/Bradford Airport is 70 miles (112 km), Robin Hood Airport Doncaster Sheffield is 50 miles (80 km) and Manchester Airport is 110 miles (176km) away. All are reasonably accessible for residents of the City.

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3.3. Population The population of the City has declined by 61,000 between 1931 and 2001 (as shown in Figure 7) but since 2001 the City has seen a very gradual reversal in this trend as shown in Figure 8.

Figure 7 - Population Trend in the City (1901 – 2009)

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Figure 8 - Growth of Population in the City (2001- 09)

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3.4. Economy In terms of macro economic indicators for comparing productivity, Gross Value Added (GVA), Hull’s economy was worth £4.26 billion GVA with an estimated GVA per head of £16,571 (compared to £16,670 regionally and £20,458 nationally) in 2007. Analysis of growth over the last ten years demonstrates the challenges facing this area which is

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highly dependent on manufacturing and the public sector. Manufacturing experienced the slowest rates of growth in economic output in the Hull area. Although GVA in Hull, North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire remains around the regional average, it is a long way behind the national average and Hull has low levels of productivity compared to other large cities in the North. The East Riding has lower GVA per head because of its low job density, although earnings are relatively high because of its knowledge-intensive employment as shown in Figure 9.

Figure 9 – Economic Growth Indicator – GVA Per Capita (1995 – 2007)

Source: ONS 2010 NUTS3 GVA Data

3.5. Employment The Annual Population Survey (APS) Jan-Dec 2009 shows that the activity rate for the working age population was 71.9% for the City and 78.6% for the East Riding as compared to 75.4% at regional level and 76.9% at national level. The City of Hull has the largest working age population in the economic area, 68.3% (179,200) of the population are between the ages 16 – 64 compared to 62.7% of the East Riding according to Office of National Statistics Mid Year Estimates. In 2008 there were 115,723 jobs in the city which represents 64.58% of working age population. The largest sector in Hull is public administration, education and health which accounts almost a third (30.8%) of all employment in the economic area followed by distribution, hotels and restaurants as shown in Figure 10.

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Figure 10 - Employment Distribution in the City (2008)

Other services 3.9% M anufacturing 17 . 1% Public administration, Construction education and 4.7% health 30.8%

Distribution, Hotels & Restaurants 23.5% Finance, IT and Transport & Other business Communication activities 14.2% 5.0%

Source: Economy Development and Regeneration (Hull City Council)

Hull has a relatively high proportion of manufacturing employment (17.1% compared to 10.1% for England) as shown in Table 1. Whilst remaining the largest sub sector, the food and beverage manufacturing has shown a decrease in recent times possibly due to the recession.

Table 1 - Comparison of Employment by Industry (2008) Kingston upon England Employment by Industry Hull Number % % Manufacturing 19,800 17.1 10.1 Construction 5,500 4.7 4.6 Distribution/hotels/restaurants 27,300 23.5 23.5 Transport & communication 5,700 5 6 Banking, finance and insurance etc 16,500 14.2 22.7 Public admin, education & health 35,600 30.8 26.4 Other services 4,500 3.9 5.3 Total jobs 115,700 100 100 Source: ABI data, (rounded to nearest 100) Even chemicals and chemical products, which provides substantial number of jobs has also declined. The percentage of the banking, finance and insurance sector in the wider local area is just 12.3% of all jobs (33,000) in 2008, 49.9% of these (16,500) were based in the city.

The Northern Way undertook a study to develop understanding of the labour market relationships in the three separate labour markets in Hull and the Humber Ports.

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These developed City typologies were applied to Hull’s relationships with places within its surrounding areas as shown in Figure 11. Figure 11 - Relationship between Hull and the neighbouring Urban Centres

Source: City Relationships – The Northern Way (Aug, 2010)

A few of the main points identified by the study in relation to the neighbouring urban centres were:

• Beverley is ‘dependent’ on Hull as an employment centre, although as an administrative centre attracting workers from surrounding areas, it also has some characteristics of an ‘independent’ urban centre. Beverley plays a dual role both as a residential area, with good housing and quality of life offer, and as an employment centre, with a relatively high proportion of knowledge intensive employment.

• Bridlington is relatively self-contained and ‘isolated’ from Hull in labour market terms. The majority of people living and working in the town tend to be employed in low wage jobs. The skills profile of the area means that Bridlington’s residents are less likely to travel elsewhere for employment – just 5% commute to Hull.

• Driffield has a strong residential offer but is ‘dependent’ on Hull as an employment centre. Just fewer than 10% of residents commute to Hull from Driffield. The area offers an attractive place to live for knowledge workers working in the city – 16% of Driffield’s residents working in professional occupations work in Hull.

• Goole is largely ‘isolated’ from Hull in labour market terms, although there may be stronger firm links between Goole and Hull because of the ports. As a port often described as ‘the UK’s premier inland port’, Goole has relatively high levels of self-containment compared to other urban centres in East Riding (61% live and work in Goole).

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3.6. Travel to Work Area (TTWA) Hull is geographically one of the UK’s smallest cities with one of the highest population densities. It is surrounded on three sides by the UK’s largest unitary authority (in terms of land area), the East Riding, which has a substantially lower population density. Hull is also the only east coast city to have a port within its administrative boundaries. As well as an employment centre, Hull plays a role within the wider area as a major retail centre (recent developments include the St. Stephen’s shopping centre) and as an educational centre, home to the University of Hull. Even though it is a regional city it does not perform the same ‘economic centre’ role as other large northern cities, and this is reflected in its travel-to-work area: it does not have the level of influence over surrounding areas that Leeds and Manchester do, for example.

As illustrated in Figure 12, there are lower levels of interaction across Hull and Humber Ports as a whole compared to both Sheffield and Leeds City Regions. Commuting between the north and the South Bank is minimal. Just 0.7% of North Lincolnshire’s residents commute to Hull and 0.2% travel the other way. Commuting levels are similar between North East Lincolnshire and the North Bank. The labour market links from Hull and Humber Ports to other surrounding cities are limited, reflecting the geography of Hull and Humber, the relative weakness of its economic centres, but also preferences for people to move rather than commute. The figure also reflects that Hull does not act as a key employment site for Leeds and Wakefield residents.

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Figure 12 - Commuting Patterns across the Yorkshire and Humber Region (2004)

Source: City Relationships - Northern Way (2010)

The Hull Travel-to-Work Area has a population of around 419,100 with Hull located at the heart of the area (see Figure 13). The Hull Travel to Work area extends into the East Riding of Yorkshire, serving over half a million people. Hull is the principal settlement in the Humber sub-region and provides more than 115,000 jobs as well as many shopping, leisure and cultural facilities, most of which are based in the city centre.

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Figure 13 - Travel to Work Area (2001)

Source: Census 2001

Analysis of commuting by occupation demonstrates the importance of quality of life as a determinant of where highly skilled individuals in Hull want to live (Figure 14) compares commuting from each of the urban centres to Hull by occupation. It is clear from the figure that Beverley and Driffield have the highest proportion of knowledge workers (Defined as Managers, professionals and Associate professionals) commuting to work in the city.

The proportion of jobs held by Hull’s residents is low – 66% of Hull’s jobs are taken by the city’s residents – compared to other cities such as Leeds (72%) and Sheffield (72%). This is partly a result of the city’s under-bounding but also because of high levels of unemployment amongst the resident population. The city’s skills profile means that only 48% of knowledge worker jobs and 31% of the city’s jobs in professional occupations are held by Hull’s residents. Many of these jobs are taken by commuters: Hull’s GVA is higher than surrounding areas but wealth (in terms of earnings) returns back to the suburbs” (Source: Northern Way ibid 2006).

The commuting patterns of ‘knowledge workers’ across the wider area – and hence the labour market links across Hull – reflect the variations in the quality of the housing stock and wider quality of place factors. This is particularly apparent in the relationship between Hull and the East Riding: according to the 2001 Census, nearly 50% of those travelling from East Riding to Hull are knowledge workers (17,018 people), whilst just 28% travelling from Hull to East Riding are knowledge workers (3,832 people).

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Figure 14 - Commuting to Hull by Occupation (2001) 100% 90%

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Elementary Process, Plant & Machine operatives Sales & Customer Service Personal Service Skilled Trades Administrative Associate Professional Managers & Senior officials

Source: City Relationships - Northern Way (2010)

3.7. Mode of Journey to Work The 2001 census identified that 39% of Hull’s population travelled by sustainable means compared to 27% for Yorkshire and The Humber and 27% in England (shown in Table 2). Table 2 - Mode of Travel to Work (2001) City of Yorkshire England Modes Kingston and The

upon Hull, Humber Works mainly at or from home 5% 8% 9% On foot 10% 11% 10% Bicycle 12% 3% 3% Rail 1% 2% 7% Bus, minibus or coach 13% 11% 8% Motorcycle, scooter or moped 2% 1% 1% Taxi or minicab 1% 1% 1% Passenger in a car or van 8% 7% 6% Driving a car or van 48% 56% 55% Source: Census 2001 Office for National Statistics

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At the time of the last national census (2001), car ownership levels for Kingston upon Hull show that there are a majority of people in Hull who either have no car, or solely one car (refer to section 3.9). This may be reflective of the large unemployment rate, the relatively low-income levels or the compactness of the City that aids a frequent bus service in the local authority.

3.8. Strategic Traffic Survey Monitoring In 2000 the Council set up two screenlines to monitor travel patterns across the city. The River Hull screenline monitors by direction traffic crossing over the nine River Hull bridges. The Hull Docks Branch railway screenline monitors traffic on the routes which cross the screenline heading in to/from the city centre (20 survey sites). The screenlines are illustrated in Figure 15.

Annual 12 hour classified count surveys are carried out at the same time of year to monitor all movements across the screenlines. These surveys provide a ‘snap shot’ on the trends in traffic including pedestrians crossing the two screenlines.

The Council also has 51 Automatic Traffic Counting ATC) sites located across the City which it uses to supplement the classified count information.

Figure 15 - Location of Screenlines for Traffic Monitoring Surveys

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Figure 16 illustrates the trend in traffic growth entering into the City Centre between 07:00 and 10:00 whilst Figure 17 illustrates the trend in two way traffic movements across the River Hull for the morning and evening peaks and 12 hour (07:00 to 19:00).

Figure 16 - Traffic crossing the Hull Docks Branch Railway Line

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Figure 17 - Two Way Growth in Traffic (River Hull Screenline)

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3.9. Car Ownership Table 3 and Table 4 show that although Hull has witnessed a significant increase in car ownership over the 30 years between 1971 and 2001 the figures still show traffic growth in Hull well below the regional and national average.

In comparing the figures for Hull with the National picture there appears to be considerable scope for car ownership to increase still further in Hull, and the trend over the 30 years indicates that this is likely to occur, although this will only be confirmed following the National Census in 2011.

Table 3 - Car Ownership in Kingston upon Hull (1971 – 2001) Year 0 Cars 1 Car 2 Cars 3+ Cars (%) (%) (%) (%) 1971 67 30 3 0 1981 57 37 5 1 1991 51 39 9 1 2001 44 43 11 2 Source: Census 2001 Office for National Statistics

Table 4 - Car ownership levels for Kingston upon Hull (2001) City of Yorkshire England Kingston and The upon Hull Humber (%) (%) (%) No car or van 44 30 27 1 car or van 43 44 44 2 cars or vans 11 21 24 3 cars or vans 2 4 5 4 or more cars or vans 0 1 1 Source: Census 2001 Office for National Statistics

3.10. Indices of Deprivation Indices of deprivation identify areas of multiple deprivation at the small area level. Based on a methodology developed by the Social Disadvantage Research Centre at the University of Oxford, separate indices have been constructed for England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales.

Though not directly comparable, each index is based on the concept that distinct dimensions of deprivation such as income, employment, education and health can be identified and measured separately. These dimensions, sometimes referred to as 'domains' are then aggregated to provide an overall measure of multiple deprivation and each individual area is allocated a deprivation rank and score.

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The indices are used to help target policies and funding, and reinforce a common goal to improve the quality of life in disadvantaged communities. However, the indices may not be used together to create a single UK index.

Indices of Deprivation are designed to identify small area deprivation and so assist in the development of more targeted policies and more informed funding allocation. As each country has its own responsibility for tackling deprivation, and the combination of factors which influence the levels of deprivation in each country may differ, separate indices have been constructed to help address the issue more effectively.

The overall index of multiple deprivation (IMD) 2007 identifies that 87 of Hull’s 163 Lower Super Output Areas are in the most deprived 20 per cent in England. This equates to approximately 137,383 people, or about 53 per cent of all residents, and places Hull as the eleventh most deprived local authority in England as shown in Figure 18 (an improvement on ninth most deprived local authority when assessed in 2004).

Figure 18 - Location of Most Deprived Wards in the City

3.11. Health Profile Health profiles are produced annually by the Association of Public Health Observatories and funded by the Department of Health. The results of this work identified that the health of people in Hull is worse than the England average.

The assessment identified that the life expectancy of males and females in Hull is 74.8 and 79.1 years respectively compared to the England average of 77.7 male and 81.8

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female. It has also been identified that deaths from smoking and early deaths from heart disease and stroke and from cancer, are all worse than the England averages as shown in Table 5. Table 5 - Comparison of health indicators for the City (2009) Hull England Indicator Total Number Value Average Worst Per Year Death from 501 305.2 210.2 330.2 Smoking 1 1 1 Early deaths from heart 268 107.4 79.1 130.5 disease and 2 2 2 stroke Early death 355 144.1 115.5 164.3 from cancer 3 3 3

Source: APHO and Department of Health 2009 1. Per 100,000 population age 35+, directly age standardised rate 2005-07 2. Directly age standardised rate per 100,000 population age under 75 2005-07 3. Directly age standardised rate per 100,000 population age under 75 2005-07