What is required to accommodate future train services in the Hull Area to support economic growth to 2043? Continuous Modular Strategic Planning October 2019 02
Contents
01: Foreword 03 02: Executive Summary 04 03: Continuous Modular Strategic Planning in the Hull Area 06 04: Hull Area Strategic Context 08
05: Delivering Long Term Growth 11 06: Accommodating Future Services 19 07: Recommendations and Next Steps 23 08: Glossary 26
Hull Area Strategic Question October 2019 03
1 Foreword
The Hull Area Continuous Modular Strategic Planning Close working relationships with local stakeholders (CMSP) study forms part of the railway industry’s and Transport for the North (TfN), the region’s Long Term Planning Process (LTPP) covering the Sub National Transport Body, has identified the region in the medium to long term planning horizon. strategic gaps from their Long Term Rail Strategy and interfaces with Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) The railway is an integral part of the Hull, East on the conventional railway in the Hull Area that are Riding and North Yorkshire geography connecting necessary to meet pan-northern objectives. people to places and delivering goods to markets. Rail provides a competitive, efficient and reliable A holistic approach to assessing the needs of the journey offer whether it be between the cities of railway in the Hull Area to cater for growth and the North of England, providing local connections connectivity has included a mixture of service-based between towns and villages, or facilitating freight to and infrastructure options that put the passenger Yorkshire’s European Gateway. In an environment and freight users first. Network Rail has worked with increasing demand for mobility, it is vital that rail collaboratively across the industry with partners and adapts to changing demands to provide an attractive stakeholders to provide a choice for funders on future and accessible network to support economic, social options to deliver a safe, reliable and efficient railway and environmental objectives. Today the railway to drive economic growth in the Hull Area to support network as a whole is more intensively used than at a versatile and competitive North of England. any other point in history, as more people travel it is vital that high levels of performance are attained to deliver a railway that works for the nation.
Over the coming years significant investment will lead to a transformation in services in the Hull Area as Northern, Transpennine Express, LNER and Hull Trains deliver more services and seating capacity, further complemented by the Transpennine Route Upgrade (TRU). It is against this backdrop that the Hull Area Strategic Question analyses future growth from 2026 to 2033 and 2043.
October 2019 Hull Area Strategic Question 04
2 Executive Summary
The Hull Area Strategic Question examines future passenger and freight growth across Hull, East Yorkshire and North Yorkshire covering Scarborough, Brough, Goole and to the east of Selby for 2026, 2033 and 2043 under a range of demand growth scenarios.
The study forms part of Network Rail’s Continuous Key areas of economic growth have been identified on Modular Strategic Planning (CMSP) approach to the the Beverley to Hull corridor across all scenarios with a Long Term Planning Process (LTPP) to meet the needs number of options including both train lengthening of the industry in an agile, focused and accessible way. and additional services considered. To accommodate The overarching Strategic Question is supported by five this increasing demand, improving flexibility at sub questions which have been developed Beverley Station through additional crossing capability, collaboratively with stakeholders and industry partners turnback opportunities and understanding the to provide a directed and clear approach to strategic opportunity for service extensions should be examined. planning in the Hull Area. The study has examined a A key challenge going forward for the Hull Area will be series of demand forecast scenarios from the accommodating the number of train services on the Department for Transport, Network Rail System Brough corridor. The mixture of speeds and stopping Operator and Transport for the North (TfN) covering patterns on a predominantly two track railway the medium to long term. A starting point baseline of between Hessle Road Junction and Gilberdyke 2026 has been used to cover the envisaged service Junction has the potential to affect performance and outputs arising from the Transpennine Route Upgrade journey times as capacity is restricted by the service (TRU). Demand has then been forecast out to 2033 structure. and 2043 aligning to key investment decisions such as The Strategic Transport Plan developed by Transport High Speed 2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) to for the North (TfN) to set the region’s transport understand the required service specifications to priorities and unlock an additional £100 billion in facilitate economic growth. economic growth identifies rail as a key component in The train service specification developed to delivering the vision. To deliver the vision, TfN have accommodate future passenger and freight growth in developed a Long Term Rail Strategy (LTRS) to improve the Hull Area has been tested on the existing rail connectivity and productivity to enable economic network to identify constraints and propose railway growth across the North of England. Within the Hull investment choices to address these concerns. Key Area, TfN’s Desirable Minimum Standards for two areas identified by this study are the station throat and passenger trains per hour on each route in the North platform capacity at Hull, both of which are heavily would see an additional service between Hull and York utilised in the future train service specification both in and Hull and Scarborough. As part of the collaborative terms of quantum and increased need for reversing approach of CMSP, a sensitivity of these additional moves due to service structure. Increased platform services above the baseline train service specification capacity, crossings and additional track could facilitate was tested to provide investment choices for funders. additional capacity at Hull Station enabling parallel Under this sensitivity, the previously identified moves between the Brough and Beverley corridor to constraints become more acute and the single track support future train services. Growing passenger section between Bridlington and Hunmanby is unable demand also puts pressure on pedestrian capacity at to accommodate two trains per hour, necessitating a Hull Station both in terms of platform clearance and double track solution on the most optimal section access to the concourse with options to reduce between Bridlington and Bempton. congestion including removal of existing platform furniture and considering how services are platformed.
Hull Area Strategic Question October 2019 05
Transport for the North’s major rail programme of The recommendations in this study have been Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) has been considered developed by a number of stakeholders in line with in this study. Close partnership working across the findings from the National Rail Passenger Survey railway geography and comparison of CMSP and the (NRPS) to deliver a coherent and collective view on emerging outputs for NPR has allowed a single what is required to deliver future passenger and narrative on the strategic priorities for the railway in freight services in the Hull Area to support the Hull Area to be developed. This has demonstrated economic growth to 2043. As rail industry long that the proposed quantum of train services to meet term strategic planning evolves, it is important long term planning growth and NPR service aspirations that future studies take into account the work are the same. However, wider network operational undertaken to ensure a consistent and robust plan considerations are being examined by Transport for the for the future network that puts passengers and North separately within their programme to ensure freight users first. consistency for a high performing and reliable network. High level engineering feasibility has assessed the deliverability of identified interventions and produced indicative order of magnitude costings to produce a set of railway investment choices for funders. This paves the way for options to be further developed to a Strategic Outline Business Case (SOBC) in line with the Rail Network Enhancements Pipeline process to mature the potential interventions to deliver the right outcomes for the railway in the Hull Area.
October 2019 Hull Area Strategic Question 06
3 Continuous Modular Strategic Planning in the Hull Area As part of Network Rail’s Long Term Planning Process (LTPP)1 Continuous Modular Strategic Planning (CMSP) provides the rail industry with an impartial evidenced based view of the rail network for the medium to long term planning horizon.
CMSP provides an agile, responsive and focused view In an environment in which land-use, transport and on the strategic priorities of the network that meets economic development are increasingly devolved to the needs of customers and funders by identifying the local decision makers, Network Rail has developed the future capacity needs and opportunities for rail CMSP process to work closely with stakeholders investment to stimulate economic growth. As a identifying the priorities for the rail network through a collaborative approach to strategic planning, service strategic question approach both at a local and specifiers; train operators; local and sub-national national level. transport bodies; local enterprise partnerships and In the Hull Area, the railway network will see a other functions of Network Rail work holistically to significant improvement to the rail offer over the develop investment choices to accommodate future coming years as Northern, Transpennine Express, economic growth. LNER and Hull Trains deliver more services and seating As the railway becomes increasingly busy, making the capacity further complemented by the Transpennine best use of train, track and station capacity is a key Route Upgrade (TRU). Increasing demand for challenge for the industry as a whole. It is therefore passenger and freight services across Hull and the important to understand how service patterns, journey North of England coupled to the transformational times and levels of operational performance all impact growth agenda of Transport for the North both on the capacity of the rail network to deliver an through their Long Term Rail Strategy (LTRS) and efficient, competitive and reliable railway. The Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) programme have coordinating role of the System Operator balances prioritised the Hull Area as a focus for strategic these requirements and the different outputs that the planning over the medium to long term. network can deliver to provide options for how capacity To deliver an inclusive and holistic rail strategy for the can be increased in an affordable and value for money Hull Area, an effective governance structure was way. developed. A high level of autonomy was provided to the Working Group to contribute, review and provide Journey Time endorsement and incorporated service specifiers, train Both absolute and operators, local authorities and local enterprise combinations of partnerships. An additional layer of oversight was journey times a ect provided through the CMSP Governance Group with network capacity and members including the Rail Delivery Group, Sub- performance National Transport Bodies and other functions of Network Rail to endorse the work undertaken by the Working Group. National governance was provided Capacity Performance through the System Long Term Governance Group to Greater use of the Punctuality and network typically reliability can improve ensure consistency across the industry for a puts pressure on by running fewer comprehensive and credible strategy for the future performance and services with more growth in the Hull Area. can impact space between 1 https://www.networkrail.co.uk/running-the-railway/long-term- journey times them planning
1 https://www.networkrail.co.uk/running-the-railway/long-term-planning
Hull Area Strategic Question October 2019 07
The governance structure is set out as follows: In line with the Strategic Question approach for CMSP, System Long Term Governance Group an overarching principal question was established to Providing national oversight and ensures consistency encompass the problem statement by stakeholders as across Strategic Planning follows: CMSP Governance Group What is required to accommodate future train Approval of remit and outputs - representation of Train services in the Hull Area to support economic growth and Freight Operators, Rail Delivery Group, Department to 2043? for Transport, Transport for the North and other Network A further sub-set of questions were identified by the Rail Functions Working Group to answer the overall Strategic Hull Area Working Group Question as follows: Develop, review and endorse remit and undertake technical work – Train and Freight Operators, Hull City Council, East Riding of Yorkshire Council, North Yorkshire • What are the interventions to improve the Yorkshire County Council, Humber Local Enterprise Partnership, Coast Line Corridor comprising of Capacity, Department for Transport, Transport for the North, Connectivity and Journey Times? Network Rail • What are the interventions to improve the Selby Future passenger and freight growth in the Hull Area was Line Corridor comprising of Capacity, Connectivity prioritised by stakeholders to cover three time periods up and Journey Times? to 2043 as follows: • How can the Hull Station Area accommodate forecast passenger growth?
2026 2033 2043 Outputs from the • How can freight be accommodated alongside future Completion of Delivery of Northern Transpennine Route High Speed 2 Powerhouse Rail passenger services in the Hull Area? Upgrade network • How could Northern Powerhouse Rail aspirations be accommodated alongside other services in the Hull To ensure a clear approach for the study, the following Area? remit was agreed by the industry to deliver a set of railway investment choices: A set of investment choices, which offer value for money, are required for funders that can accommodate future passenger growth in the short, medium and long term for the Hull area under different demand growth scenarios. The investment choices identified should also include options for accommodating Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) and additional freight growth identified by the North of England Freight Strategic Question alongside the Long Term Planning Process (LTPP) conditional outputs. It should be noted that due to the distinct and separate railway geography of the Barton-on-Humber Line it is not included within the remit of this strategic question.
October 2019 Hull Area Strategic Question 08
4 Hull Area Strategic Context
The railways of East Yorkshire link Hull with Beverley, Bridlington and Scarborough in the north and to Brough, Selby and Goole in the west.
Significant freight facilities are provided by the 4.02 Future Train Services aggregate terminal at Dairycoates, accessed by Hessle 4.02.01 Transpennine Route Upgrade East Junction, and the Hull Dock Line connecting into The Transpennine Route Upgrade is a major the key import and export markets at the Port of Hull programme to increase capacity and deliver a high through Hessle Road Junction. Hull is also home to the performing and reliable railway on the core Botanic Gardens Rolling Stock Depot accessed from Manchester to Leeds and York route. As part of the the Scarborough lines at West Parade Junction emerging outputs, an additional semi-fast adjacent to Hull Station. A schematic diagram of the Manchester Piccadilly to Hull service is envisaged geographic remit of the Hull Area is shown in Figure 1. calling at Selby, Howden, Brough and Hull in the 4.01 Existing Train Services remitted geography. The nominal completion date in 4.01.01 Passenger the mid to late 2020s for the TRU programme Passenger services in the Hull Area are predominantly therefore provides a credible baseline for forecasting split between cross-Hull services from South Yorkshire future growth out to 2043. The Indicative Train to the Yorkshire Coast and services terminating at Hull Service Specification (ITSS) for 2026 has been from Selby and the west. The through Hull services determined by the industry based on the future provide an important link between North and East service structure arising from the North of England Yorkshire to the East Coast Main Line at Doncaster for franchise awards and the service outcomes from TRU onward connections. Services terminating at Hull in the Hull Area. provide linkages to Manchester, Leeds, York and 4.02.02 Transport for the North Long Term Rail London King’s Cross. All services are principally Strategy Connectivity provided on an hourly frequency providing a Transport for the North published their Strategic competitive service offer from Hull with the exception Transport Plan in January 2019 setting the vision to of services to London King’s Cross which are provided 2050 on transport priorities required to drive inclusive on a two hourly frequency. Further interchange and sustainable economic growth across the North. A between transport modes is provided at Hull Paragon key element of the delivery of this vision is a high- Interchange with bus services linking the wider areas of quality railway network to improve productivity and the region into the rail network. enable economic growth through a set of desirable 4.01.02 Freight minimum standards as part of their Long Term Rail Strategy (LTRS). The step-change in connectivity, Freight is an important part of the wider Hull economy encompassing frequency and journey time set out in with rail connected terminals for both aggregate flows the LTRS, forms part of each geographic route from North Yorkshire and facilities for importing and corridor sub question alongside the capacity exporting goods at Hull Docks. Freight services do not requirements to meet future passenger growth. typically operate on the Yorkshire Coast Line or interact Working in partnership with TfN, the gaps from the with Hull Paragon Station itself, utilising the Selby Line Desirable Minimum Standards relating to connectivity corridor to the west of Hull to access Hull Dairycoates were identified, this highlighted the need for an at Hessle East Junction and Hull Docks at Hessle Road additional service between Hull and York and also an Junction. Freight flows are accommodated alongside extension of the existing Bridlington service to the passenger services as a mixed traffic railway with Scarborough to facilitate two trains per hour between W8 Gauge Clearance provided from Hessle Road Scarborough and Hull. Junction to Goole and Selby.
Hull Area Strategic Question October 2019 09
Figure 1: Geographic scope of study
Scarborough
N Seamer Filey
Hunmanby
Passenger line Bempton Freight line Bridlington
Driffield Nafferton
Hutton Cranswick
Arram
Beverley
t Cottingham Wressle Howden Botanic Gardens Depot Eastrington mflee Gilberdyke Broo Brough Hessle Hull Paragon Saltmarshe Ferriby Interchange Hull Dock Goole Dairycoates Aggregate Terminal
October 2019 Hull Area Strategic Question 10
4.03 Baseline Service Specification An additional ‘TfN Connectivity’ baseline scenario, The service structure in the Hull Area arising from the taking into account TfN’s Long Term Rail Strategy, builds North of England franchise awards and the emerging on the above service structure with an additional Hull to TRU outputs for an additional Transpennine service York service and an extension from Bridlington to between Manchester and Hull form the indicative Scarborough on an existing Yorkshire Coast Line service. baseline for 2026. An extension of the Hull to London Rolling stock assumptions for each scenario have been King’s Cross service to Beverley has been included as a developed through industry collaboration based on sensitivity on this baseline to incorporate stakeholder existing and planned formations to provide a aspirations. representative baseline. In all scenarios an hourly freight path has been provided between Hull Docks and Goole.
Figure 2: Visualisation of 2026 Service Baseline and added Scenario Sensitivities
Scarborough
Beverley-Hull Sensitivity
TfN Long Term Rail Strategy Connectivity
1 tph (freight)
1 train per 2 hours (passenger) Bridlington
1 tph (passenger)
2 tph (passenger)
3 tph (passenger)
4 tph (passenger)
Beverley Gilberdyke Jn Hull Selby Hull Dock
Hull Area Strategic Question October 2019 11
5 Delivering Long Term Growth
The rail network plays a key role in driving economic growth across the country connecting millions of people to jobs and delivering goods to markets.
5.01 Defining future growth scenarios The analysis focuses on the Morning Peak (0800-0859) The competitive journey times and frequencies across arrivals into Hull Station covering the busiest sustained the network enable businesses to connect and unlock period of demand in the Hull Area to identify gaps in the benefits of agglomeration whilst also increasing the provided passenger capacity. Passenger capacity is labour market catchments. A high-quality railway aggregated and averaged across all services on the network likewise encourages modal shift, reducing corridor to indicate areas where sufficient capacity is road congestion, carbon emissions and improving air not provided, this enables the development of quality. Planning the strategic direction of the railway, potential capacity solutions for the medium to long with the challenges and opportunities this entails over term on a corridor level, rather than focusing on the the medium to long term is therefore vital to delivering existing issues on a service-by-service basis. a versatile and growing economy.
To inform the long term strategic plan for the railway in Seasonal demand from the leisure market in the Hull the Hull Area an assessment of future rail growth on Area, which is managed locally by train operators the corridors into Hull has been undertaken. Existing based on specific events and availability of stock and levels of demand have been examined with exogenous train crew, will naturally benefit from the options background growth and the endogenous effects of developed as part of the capacity gap analysis as will timetable change up to 2026 applied to build up the off-peak passengers at less busy times of the day. demand forecasts. Following strong stakeholder input, a range of economic forecasts from the Department The passenger demand forecasts for the next 25 years for Transport, Network Rail System Operator and in the Hull Area are provided in Figure 3 and show the Transport for the North have been modelled to provide variance between the growth models. It should be a comprehensive view of rail demand for 2026, 2033 noted that whilst the impact of Northern Powerhouse and 2043. In line with industry agreed forecasting, the Rail (NPR) has not been explicitly examined as part of latest economic outlook on population, housing and this study, the Transport for the North (TfN) job growth has been included with further assessment transformational growth scenario captures ‘a broad of the Local Plan for each Local Authority to inform the estimate of the potential scale and nature of impacts development of options to address capacity gaps. arising from connectivity improvements’, arguably achieved through large scale interventions such as NPR.
October 2019 Hull Area Strategic Question 12
Figure 3: Passenger demand growth forecasts for the Hull Area
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% 2026 2033 2043
DfT WebTAG Network Rail System Operator TfN Transformational
Some of the service options developed as part of this 5.03 National Rail Passenger Survey study enable connectivity benefits which will also serve The National Rail Passenger Survey (NRPS) provides a outbound passengers travelling to other key regions and network-wide picture of satisfaction with the railway. cities in the North and beyond. As part of the Strategic The latest survey at the time of publication was Question approach, the capacity constraints for such undertaken in Spring 2019 and surveyed more than passengers will be addressed in the appropriate Strategic 30,000 passengers providing a valuable insight for the Questions for the relevant regions. medium to long term strategic plan of the network. 5.02 Rail Freight Growth The overall journey satisfaction for rail passengers was Existing freight flows in the Hull Area were examined to recorded as 83% with the key drivers of satisfaction develop a representative service pattern for the baseline identified as punctuality, train cleanliness, frequency, train service specification. Further analysis of Network length of journey and crowding. It is therefore Rail’s Freight Market Study has modelled the changes in important that in delivering additional capacity to freight demand up to 2043 to identify the future facilitate economic growth in the Hull Area a high requirements in the Hull Area. Assessment of the freight performing and reliable railway is achieved. An forecasts and collaboration with stakeholders optimised and attractive service frequency proposition highlighted the need to provide an hourly freight path is also key as well as ensuring that existing journey from the Hull Dock Line to Hessle Road and on to times are not affected by more trains on the network. Gilberdyke Junction where the service was routed via Delivering a high quality journey offer both in terms of Goole. The future development of rail connected sites in train cleanliness and providing sufficient passenger the Goole area alongside existing demand flows were capacity to reduce crowding also needs to be factored key factors in the decision making process on service into how additional demand growth can be routing. accommodated on the railway in the Hull Area. The inclusion of the drivers of passenger satisfaction in the strategic planning process allows Network Rail to put passengers first, identifying opportunities to deliver both economic growth and improve satisfaction with the rail network.
Hull Area Strategic Question October 2019 13
5.04 Growth Forecasts to 2026 For Network Rail System Operator and Transport for The growth forecasts presented in this study utilise the the North growth, standing of up to one passenger per baseline train service specification without the square metre on average occurs between Beverley and sensitivities of the additional Beverley to Hull service Hull. Under DfT guidelines, allowance for standing and TfN Connectivity services between Hull and York passengers is made within 20 minutes of the critical and Hull and Scarborough as shown in Figure 2. This load point, in this case Hull Station, given that it falls allows a clear understanding of the future needs of the within the specific parameters for passengers in excess network to be undertaken. The medium term demand of capacity (PiXC) determined for the franchise2. As forecasts to 2026 have up to 70% of seats occupied on Beverley and Cottingham fall within this 20 minute both the Selby and Goole corridors into Hull across all catchment, some standing is therefore acceptable growth scenarios. On the Beverley to Hull corridor according to the guidelines.
under DfT WebTAG growth, between 85-100% of 2 https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/ available seats are occupied. uploads/attachment_data/file/9078/rail-notes-definitions.pdf
Figure 4: High peak arrivals into Hull 2026 Network Rail System Operator and TfN growth
Marske Saltburn Allens West Hull 2026 capacity - System Operator & TfN Yarm Suburban rail services arriving into central Hull during the high peak hour 0800 to 0859
Scarborough
Seamer
Filey
Northallerton Hunmanby
Bempton Malton Thirsk
Bridlington
Nafferton
Hammerton Poppleton Driffield
York Hutton Cranswick
Arram
Ulleskelf
Beverley
Cottingham
Hull Selby Wressle Howden Eastrington Gilberdyke Broomfleet Brough Ferriby Hessle
Saltmarshe
Based upon a map designed by Andrew Smithers © 2017 www.projectmapping.co.uk and reproduced with permission Goole ct Knottingley Hensall Snaith Rawcliffe Whitley Bridge GREY No direct service to central Hullon during the high peak hour LIGHT GREEN Up to 70% of of seats occupiedof seats onoccupied averageon GREEN Between 70% and 85%of ofseats seatsoccupied occupiedon on overage Thorne North DARK GREEN Between 85% and 100%to 1ofpassenger seats occupiedper square on overage AMBER Passengers standing, up to 1 passenger1 and 2 passengers per square metre on average ck Thorne South RED Passengers standing, between2 1and and3 2passengers passengers per square metre on average Bentley Hatfield & Stainforth Kirk Sandall PURPLE Passengers standing, between3 passengers 2 and 3 perpassengerssquare per square metre on average Doncaster BLACK Passengers standing, over 3 passengers per square metre on average Conisbrough loaded of travel gh < > Indicates the the most heavily loaded direction of travel shown for orbital services
October 2019 Hull Area Strategic Question 14
5.05 Growth Forecasts to 2033 As per the 2026 forecasts, the lines in from Selby In 2033 all three growth scenarios consistently show and Goole still have up to 70% seats occupied on standing of up to one passenger per square metre on average providing sufficient passenger capacity, average between Beverley and Hull, with the relative notably due to the high number of services number of standing passengers varying between operating on this corridor. forecast. Under both Network Rail System Operator and Transport for the North growth there is increasing demand on the corridor from Driffield to Beverley increasing seat occupancy on average to between 70 -85%.
Figure 5: High peak arrivals into Hull 2033 Network Rail System Operator and TfN growth
Marske Saltburn Allens West Hull 2033 capacity - System Operator & TfN Yarm Suburban rail services arriving into central Hull during the high peak hour 0800 to 0859
Scarborough
Seamer
Filey
Northallerton Hunmanby
Bempton Malton Thirsk
Bridlington
Nafferton
Hammerton Poppleton Driffield
York Hutton Cranswick
Arram
Ulleskelf
Beverley
Cottingham
Hull Selby Wressle Howden Eastrington Gilberdyke Broomfleet Brough Ferriby Hessle
Saltmarshe
Based upon a map designed by Andrew Smithers © 2017 www.projectmapping.co.uk and reproduced with permission Goole ct Knottingley Hensall Snaith Rawcliffe Whitley Bridge to central Hull during the high peak hour GREY No direct service No direct ofserviceseats tooccupied central Hullon average during the high peak hour LIGHT GREEN Up to 70% of of seats occupied on average and 85% of seats occupied on average GREEN Between 70% and 85% of seats occupied on overage and 100% of seats occupied on average DARK GREEN Between 85% and 100% of seats occupied on overage Thorne North standing, up to 1 passenger per square metre on average AMBER Passengers standing, up to 1 passenger per square metre on average standing, between 1 and 2 passengers per square metre on average ck RED Passengers standing, between 1 and 2 passengers per square metre on average Thorne South standing, between 2 and 3 passengers per square metre on average Bentley Hatfield & Stainforth PURPLE Passengers standing, between 2 and 3 passengers per square metre on average Kirk Sandall standing, over 3 passengers per square metre on average Doncaster BLACK Passengers standing, over 3 passengers per square metre on average
Conisbrough most heavily loaded of travel shown for orbital services Indicates the gh < > Indicates the most heavily loaded direction of travel shown for orbital services
Hull Area Strategic Question October 2019 15
5.06 Growth Forecasts to 2043 Driffield and Beverley can be observed with seat The long term view of high peak capacity for 2043 occupancy continuing to rise. Up to 70% seat demonstrates that crowding remains an issue between occupancy remains on the Selby and Goole corridors Beverley and Hull with increasing numbers of with high number of services and high capacity trains passengers standing, although still within the one serving the Selby corridor likely to be a contributor to passenger per square metre on average and within the the available passenger capacity. As previously 20 minute boundary for both the DfT WebTAG and mentioned however, the aggregated and averaged Network Rail System Operator growth. Consistent with nature of the data analysis may not sufficiently the 2033 forecasts, increasing demand between identify highly crowded individual train services on these corridors.
Figure 6: High peak arrivals into Hull 2043 DfT and Network Rail System Operator growth
Marske Saltburn Allens West Hull 2043 capacity - System Operator & DfT Yarm Suburban rail services arriving into central Hull during the high peak hour 0800 to 0859
Scarborough
Seamer
Filey
Northallerton Hunmanby
Bempton Malton Thirsk
Bridlington
Nafferton
Hammerton Poppleton Driffield
York Hutton Cranswick
Arram
Ulleskelf
Beverley
Cottingham
Hull Selby Wressle Howden Eastrington Gilberdyke Broomfleet Brough Ferriby Hessle
Saltmarshe
Based upon a map designed by Andrew Smithers © 2017 www.projectmapping.co.uk and reproduced with permission Goole ct Knottingley Hensall Snaith Rawcliffe Whitley Bridge direct service to central Hull during the high peak hour GREY No direct service to central Hull during the high peak hour to 70% of seats occupied on average LIGHT GREEN Up to 70% of of seats occupied on average 70% and 85% of seats occupied on average GREEN Between 70% and 85% of seats occupied on overage 85% and 100% of seats occupied on average DARK GREEN Between 85% and 100% of seats occupied on overage Thorne North standing, up to 1 passenger per square metre on average AMBER Passengers standing, up to 1 passengers per square metre on average standing, between 1 and 2 passengers per square metre on average ck RED Passengers standing, between 1 and 2 passengers per square metre on average Thorne South standing, between 2 and 3 passengers per square metre on average Bentley Hatfield & Stainforth PURPLE Passengers standing, between 2 and 3 passenger per square metre on average Kirk Sandall standing, over 3 passengers per square metre on average Doncaster BLACK Passengers standing, over 3 passengers per square metre on average
Conisbrough the most heavily loaded of travel shown for orbital services Indicates the gh < > Indicates the most heavily loaded direction of travel shown for orbital services
October 2019 Hull Area Strategic Question 16
Under the Transport for the North transformational Seating occupancy has moved towards 100% on growth scenario the level of standing between Beverley the stations from Driffield into Hull under this and Hull has worsened to between one and two growth scenario, however, the Selby and Goole passengers standing per square metre on average. corridors remain with sufficient seating capacity of Whilst this still within the previously referred to 20 up to 70% occupation. minute passengers in excess of capacity parameter, the conditions are likely to necessitate an increase in available capacity to ease crowding as shown in Figure 7.
Figure 7: High peak arrivals into Hull 2043 TfN Transformational growth
Marske Saltburn Allens West Hull 2043 capacity - TfN Transformational Growth Yarm Suburban rail services arriving into central Hull during the high peak hour 0800 to 0859
Scarborough
Seamer
Filey
Northallerton Hunmanby
Bempton Malton Thirsk
Bridlington
Nafferton
Hammerton Poppleton Driffield
York Hutton Cranswick
Arram
Ulleskelf
Beverley
Cottingham
Hull Selby Wressle Howden Eastrington Gilberdyke Broomfleet Brough Ferriby Hessle
Saltmarshe
Based upon a map designed by Andrew Smithers © 2017 www.projectmapping.co.uk and reproduced with permission Goole ct Knottingley Hensall Snaith Rawcliffe Whitley Bridge to central Hull during the high peak hour GREY No direct service to central Hull during the high peak hour seats occupied on average LIGHT GREEN Up to 70% of of seats occupied on average and 85% of seats occupied on average GREEN Between 70% and 85% of seats occupied on overage and 100% of seats occupied on average DARK GREEN Between 85% and 100% of seats occupied on overage Thorne North up to 1 passenger per square metre on average AMBER Passengers standing, up to 1 passenger per square metre on average between 1 and 2 passengers per square metre on average ck RED Passengers standing, between 1 and 2 passengers per square metre on average between 2 and 3 passengers per square metre on average Thorne South Passengers standing, between 2 and 3 passengers per square metre on average Bentley Hatfield & Stainforth PURPLE Passengers standing,over over3 3passengers passengersper persquare squaremetre metreon onaverage average Doncaster Kirk Sandall BLACK Passengers
Conisbrough most heavily loaded of travel shown for orbital services Indicates the the most heavily loaded direction of travel shown for orbital services gh < >
Hull Area Strategic Question October 2019 17
5.07 Hull Station Pedestrian Capacity In all cases, passengers are standing within the Analysis acceptable 20 minute boundary from Beverley into Assessment of the platforms, walk-ways and concourse Hull. However, there are a number of reasons why at Hull Station has been undertaken to ascertain if the options to provide additional capacity should be existing infrastructure exhibits acceptable levels of considered, not only to put passengers first and reduce crowding and delivers compliant platform clearance crowding as identified by the National Rail Passenger times for the forecast future growth in passengers. The Survey, but also: analysis demonstrates that most trains are able to • Funders may have an aspiration for 100% seated unload passengers without significant queuing, capacity however, the existing gate from the concourse to the platforms constrains pedestrian flows. Furthermore, it • Passengers perceptions of crowding may be such is likely that Platform 2 will experience platform that they choose to travel by rail at different times clearance time risk due to the platform width and than would be optimal or use other modes of access to the concourse. Both infrastructure and transport to make their journey operational interventions are therefore recommended • Growth could increase at a faster rate than expected to deliver a safe and efficient station that due to further housing developments and accommodates long term growth and improves employment growth passenger satisfaction. In the first instance, train lengthening was considered 5.08 Options to accommodate growth to achieve additional passenger capacity on the The exogenous growth forecasts in the Hull Area corridors into Hull. Service choices to provide enhanced demonstrate a consistent trend of increasing demand connectivity were also considered in line with from Beverley and Cottingham into Hull during the stakeholder aspirations, this resulted in the following high peak hour. Assessment of the baseline train options taken forward to address the passenger service specification and envisaged rolling stock has capacity gaps in the Hull Area: identified that whilst in the medium term to 2026 the DfT forecast growth can be satisfactorily accommodated, a capacity gap between the number • Train lengthening: Bridlington to York service from 2 of available seats and passenger demand between to 3 Cars Beverley and Hull becomes an issue across other • Train lengthening: Bridlington to York service from 2 scenarios. By 2043 under the Transport for the North to 3 Cars; Beverley to Doncaster service from 2 to 3 transformational scenario, standing has worsened Cars from up to one passenger per square metre to between one and two passengers standing per square metre on • Additional 5 Car Beverley to Hull service average. A summary of the capacity gap for all growth scenarios and years in the high peak hour into Hull Station is provided in Table 1.
Table 1: Summary of Capacity Gaps 2026 2033 2043 DfT WebTAG Beverley - Hull Beverley - Hull System Operator Beverley - Hull Beverley - Hull Beverley - Hull TfN Beverley - Hull Beverley - Hull Beverley - Hull
Key Seated capacity Passengers standing up to 1 passenger per sq m Passengers standing between 1 and 2 passengers per sq m
October 2019 Hull Area Strategic Question 18
Table 2 summarises the effect of the various options on The baseline train service specifications previously capacity between Beverley and Hull in the high peak developed were therefore taken forward for network under the three growth forecasts. Train lengthening of analysis with the following sensitivities to the Bridlington to York service in isolation is unlikely to accommodate future growth at Hull. make a significant impact on crowding into Hull. • Baseline with train lengthening of Bridlington to However, additional lengthening of the Beverley to York and Beverley to Doncaster services Doncaster service provides sufficient seating capacity under both DfT and Network Rail System Operator • Baseline with additional Beverley to Hull service Growth scenarios with up to one passenger standing • Baseline with additional TfN Connectivity services; per square metre on average under the TfN growth York to Hull and Scarborough to Hull forecast. To provide 100% seating capacity in the TfN transformational growth scenario the additional 5 Car Beverley to Hull sensitivity is required.
Table 2: Summary of Options Train Lengthening Scenario Additional Service Only 2043 3 Car Bridlington to York service 3 Car Bridlington to York & 5 Car Beverley to Hull service Beverley to Doncaster service DfT WebTAG Cottingham - Hull
System Operator Beverley - Hull TfN Beverley - Hull Beverley - Hull
Key Seated capacity Passengers standing up to 1 passenger per sq m Passengers standing between 1 and 2 passengers per sq m
Hull Area Strategic Question October 2019 19
6 Accommodating Future Services
To understand network capability in the Hull Area to accommodate future economic growth and train services, a concept train plan has been constructed.
6.01 Assessing Network Capability services are the same, however, due to the wider To understand network capability in the Hull Area to network operational considerations of NPR different accommodate future economic growth and train train lengths are envisaged. This collaborative services, a concept train plan has been constructed. approach has allowed a single and complementary The concept train plan has been constructed to make narrative on the needs for the railway in the Hull Area the most efficient use of available capacity on the to be developed to accommodate future growth. current infrastructure and to identify the limitations in A high level overview of the capacity analysis providing a reliable and robust future train service. undertaken and key geographic areas of constraint in Assessment across the railway geography in the Hull the Hull Area are demonstrated in Figure 8. Area of the CMSP outputs and the emerging outputs for NPR has demonstrated that the quantum of train
Figure 8: Identified network constraints for future growth
Scarborough
N Seamer Filey
Hunmanby
Passenger line Bempton Freight line Bridlington Two trains per hour between Bridlington and Scarborough can not be accommodated on the current infrastructure
Na erton Dri eld
Hutton Cranswick With up to two trains per hour reversing at Beverley on the main line network capacity is limited Arram
Beverley High number of movements across Hull Throat and High Platform Occupancy e t Cottingham Wressle Howden Botanic Gardens Depot Eastrington Gilberdyk BroomfleeBrough Hessle Hull Paragon Saltmarshe Ferriby Interchange Hull Dock Goole Mixture of speeds and stopping Dairycoates Aggregate Terminal patterns constrain network capacity
October 2019 Hull Area Strategic Question 20
6.02 Options to deliver future services The identified network constraints were assessed with stakeholders to produce a set of interventions that could accommodate future train services in the Hull Area to support economic growth to 2043. The recommended interventions were then taken forward with project engineers to produce high level engineering assessments utilising Network Rail’s Geographic Rail Infrastructure Model and signalling and track diagrams to understand the feasibility of each proposed scheme. High level order of magnitude costs were then developed Each constraint links to a potential intervention which following Network Rail cost planning procedures to could resolve the problem. A qualitative benefit provide an indicative scale of cost which could be assessment provides detail on what the proposal would apportioned to the expected benefit to understand achieve with the indicative costing providing a scale for the viability of each intervention. The costs have comparison. Table 3 provides a summary of the been categorised utilising a low, medium and high options to deliver economic growth in the Hull Area. approach using the following criteria. Where more than one option is shown alongside a Low: Up to £5m given constraint, the options are considered on an Medium: £5-£50m ‘either or basis’. High: >£50m To provide a consistent approach for the potential interventions in the Hull Area to accommodate future train services, interventions have been grouped according to geographic theme aligning to the identified constraints in the capacity analysis.
Table 3: Summary of Options to Deliver Economic Growth in the Hull Area Geographic Scope Constraint Intervention Options Benefits Cost Class 80X units restricted Gauge clearance of additional Introduction of longer and more frequent Class Low to certain Platforms Platforms at Hull to support 80X units on Transpennine services will limiting the number Class 80X operation. accommodate future demand and improve available for the new journey ambience by providing more Transpennine services. opportunities to travel and reducing crowding, both of which have been recognised as key priorities in the National Rail Passenger Survey. Selective Door Opening is Platform extension to 265m for Longer trains fully accommodated in Platform 7 Low required to accommodate Platform 7 to ensure a 10 Car would put the passenger first and improve the 2x5 Car Class 80X Services Class 80X formation can be fully journey experience providing more seats and at Hull Station. platformed. reducing crowding, identified as a key priority by the National Rail Passenger Survey. Delivering sufficient Platform capacity at Hull for Reinstate Platform 1 to provide Existing platform and buffer stop are non- Low long term economic growth additional flexibility to compliant to modern standards curtailing the Platforms at Hull are accommodate the additional maximum useable platform length to circa 55m. heavily utilised to services. This limits the functionality of the intervention accommodate the future to 2 car trains constraining future train service specification of lengthening and additional seating capacity. more reversing and Provide a new Platform of at A new platform to accommodate the longest Low frequent train services least 135m to provide additional train in the future service specification will which can limit the flexibility to accommodate the increase flexibility of platforming to optimisation of pathing additional services. accommodate additional services reducing and end to end journey crowding, maintain journey times and offering times. more opportunities to travel in line with the priorities identified by the National Rail Passenger Survey.
Hull Area Strategic Question October 2019 21
Table 3: Summary of Options to Deliver Economic Growth in the Hull Area Geographic Scope Constraint Intervention Options Benefits Cost An additional crossover from More through trains at Hull connecting the Low Platforms 4 and 5 to the Up Brough corridor to Beverley, Bridlington and Main line will give the option of Scarborough will increase connectivity, a key departing from Platform 4 and 5 priority identified by the National Rail Passenger in parallel with arrivals (and Survey and facilitate economic growth by departures to Beverley) from reducing journey times and providing increased Platforms 6 and 7 providing an access to employment, education and health additional platform choice to centres. Gauge clearance of all Platforms at Hull enable throat movements. for Class 80X should also be assessed alongside this intervention to deliver the maximum benefit. The current layout does not More through trains at Hull connecting the Low allow arrivals from Brough being Brough corridor to Beverley, Bridlington and High utilisation of Hull made in conjunction with Scarborough will increase connectivity, a key Station throat amplified by services from Beverley. A priority identified by the National Rail Passenger three services per hour crossover from the Down Main Survey and facilitate economic growth by reversing from the Brough to the Up Man east of West reducing journey times and providing increased Unlocking the constraints of and Beverley corridors. Parade Junction would enable access to employment, education and health Hull Throat to deliver the Currently Hull station only an arrival into Platform 2 or 3 centres. Gauge clearance of all Platforms at Hull future train service enables limited from Brough alongside a for Class 80X should also be assessed alongside specification opportunity for parallel departure to Beverley from this intervention to deliver the maximum benefit. arrival and departures Platforms 3, 5, 6 or 7 to support which limits the capability the future service structure. of delivering more services across Hull. An additional track solution More through trains at Hull connecting the Medium would provide greater Brough corridor to Beverley, Bridlington and opportunity to segregate the Scarborough will increase connectivity and routes and enable the potential facilitate economic growth by reducing journey for three parallel movements at times and providing increased access to the same time. A direct employment, education and health centres. connection from the Beverley Consideration would need to be given to the Lines to Platforms 6 and 7 interactions with Botanic Gardens Maintenance enables an arrival/departure to Facility with this scheme. Gauge clearance of all Beverley alongside an arrival Platforms at Hull for Class 80X should also be from Brough into Platform 4 or 5 assessed alongside this intervention to deliver and a departure to Brough from the maximum benefit. Platform 2 or 3. Platform 2 extension to 135m to Longer trains fully accommodated in Platform 2 Low ensure a 5 Car Class 80X would put the passenger first and improve the formation can be fully journey experience for reversing services. platformed. An additional crossover to the Additional flexibility to accommodate the Low- south of Beverley to allow terminating Beverley to Doncaster and Beverley Medium Platform 1 to be utilised to to London King’s Cross services to optimise the turnback services providing timetable for services to Bridlington and flexibility to accommodate Scarborough from Hull improving the journey Trains terminating at services on the Yorkshire Coast offer for passengers. An optimised timetable can Beverley use the Line. Platform 1 would require reduce crowding spreading demand and seating northbound Platform 2 to gauge clearance for Class 80X to availability across services and maintain an reverse back to Hull, whilst ensure maximum functionality attractive high performing railway as a service is turning back it is with a Platform extension to highlighted by the National Rail Passenger not possible to run a service 135m. Survey. to Bridlington and Accommodating future Scarborough. The length of Turnback siding to the North of Additional train services to Beverley from Medium services at Beverley Station dwell to turn services Beverley Station to allow London King’s Cross and South Yorkshire can be around which will be services terminating to be taken accommodated without restricting capacity of required for up to two off the main line to release the main line for services to Bridlington and service in the hour from capacity for services to Scarborough. The additional operational Doncaster and London Bridlington and Scarborough. requirements to facilitate the reversing moves King’s Cross constrain would need to be considered alongside this capacity to run services intervention to maximise the benefit. further north. Infrastructure to support the A reduction in dwell time and occupation of the Medium extension of an existing main line at Beverley by extending services to Beverley terminating service to Bridlington would provide additional capacity in Bridlington. the Beverley area. Improved connectivity to Bridlington would increase opportunities to travel and provide more seats on the Yorkshire Coast Line. The additional operational costs involved in this option would need to be considered alongside any infrastructure proposal.
October 2019 Hull Area Strategic Question 22
Table 3: Summary of Options to Deliver Economic Growth in the Hull Area Geographic Scope Constraint Intervention Options Benefits Cost Increased network Additional train services Optimise the headway to Introduction of more frequent Transpennine Medium- capability to deliver more result in the corridor having provide additional capacity for services and an additional service between Hull High connectivity and capacity a mixture of speeds and the future service pattern. and York will provide more opportunities for between Hull and stopping patterns which travel enhancing connectivity between Gilberdyke restrict the available track economic centres. The provision of more seats capacity affecting will reduce crowding and a solution to performance and journey accommodate more trains will ensure that times. journey times are not affected, both of which form key priorities in the National Rail Passenger Survey. Enabling a better journey Selective Door Opening is Platform extensions to 135m for Longer trains accommodated in both Platforms Medium experience for passengers required to accommodate both Platform 1 and 2 to ensure would put the passenger first and improve the at Cottingham Station 5 Car Class 80X service at a 5 Car Class 80X formation can journey experience. Replacement of the existing Cottingham. Additionally, be fully platformed. A new foot crossing would provide a safer railway and restrictions to enable safe accessible footbridge would remove operational constraints to improve operation of the railway replace the foot crossing to the reliability, a key driver of passenger satisfaction. limit the network north of the station to provide capability. for a safe and inclusive railway. Delivering a step-change in The existing single track The section between Bridlington An additional Scarborough to Hull service would High the rail offer between section between and Bempton would be the most transform connectivity across East and North Scarborough and Hull to Bridlington and Hunmanby optimal part of the network to Yorkshire especially for the coastal and rural deliver on Transport for the is only capable of double track to facilitate two communities on the route by offering more North’s Long Term Rail accommodating one train trains per hour between opportunities to travel and access to education Strategy of two services per per hour in each direction Scarborough and Hull. and health centres as well as better connectivity hour constraining the timing of to the economic centres of the North. The services between improved frequency of services will improve the Bridlington and attractiveness of rail and encourage modal shift, Scarborough. enhancing rural sustainability. The benefits of such a service would however need to be considered in line with the additional operating costs that would be necessary to provide the train service. The existing access from Remove the gating structure to Low the Platforms to the increase the available width for Concourse is restricted by pedestrians to access the the iron gating Concourse from the Platforms. constraining pedestrian Providing a safe and flows. A safe and attractive environment is provided for efficient Hull Station that Cycle parking facilities on Relocate cycle parking facilities passengers to access rail services and the Low accommodates the long Platform 2 impede away from Platform 2 head end economic centre of Hull improving overall term growth in passenger pedestrian flows restricting to improve Platform clearance passenger satisfaction. numbers Platform clearance times. times. Platform 2 clearance times Provide direct access from Low are limited by Platform Platform 2 to the Concourse to head-end capacity. relieve congestion on the Platform walkways to reduce Platform clearance times.
Hull Area Strategic Question October 2019 23
7 Recommendations and Next Steps The assessments carried out as part of this study have identified a number of challenges and opportunities to deliver future train services in the Hull Area.
7.01 Recommendations from the Strategic In line with the Strategic Question approach, a number Question of sub-strategic questions were identified to provide an The assessments carried out as part of this study have additional level of detail for the study. A summary of identified a number of challenges and opportunities to responses to these sub-strategic questions are presented deliver future train services in the Hull Area. The future below in Table 4. train service structure, with the additional capacity it provides, will drive the need for interventions to deliver a reliable and high performing railway. Providing a railway that can cater for the forecast growth in the Hull Area will enhance connectivity and capacity improving productivity to support a versatile and competitive economy in both the Hull Area and across the North of England.
Table 4: Summary for each Sub-Strategic Question Sub-Strategic Question Summary Assessment of the economic growth forecasts in this study have consistently identified the section between Beverley and Hull experiencing standing in the medium to long term of up to one passenger per square metre. To provide sufficient seating capacity, train lengthening of both Bridlington to York and Beverley to Doncaster to 3 Car services are required. Additional connectivity through the regular extension of Hull to London King’s Cross services would also provide additional seating to meet increasing passenger demand but likely drive an intervention at Beverley. A strategy that puts passengers first would also include Platform extensions at Nafferton and Hutton Cranswick to fully platform 3 Car services to improve the overall journey experience. What are the interventions to improve To meet the conditional outputs of the Long Term Rail Strategy, the Bridlington service would need to be the Yorkshire Coast Line Corridor extended to Scarborough. However, the single track sections north of Bridlington limit capacity and a double comprising of Capacity, Connectivity track solution between Bridlington and Bempton is required as a minimum to accommodate two trains per and Journey Times? hour between Hull and Scarborough.
Whilst there is the potential that journey time improvements could support two trains per hour on this section, performance and local connectivity would need to be carefully considered to deliver a robust and reliable railway and to not drive an intervention on the Filey to Seamer single track section. Transport for the North continue to work across the industry to identify and develop potential journey time improvement schemes, however the options for this corridor are not at a sufficient level of maturity to be considered in this study.
October 2019 Hull Area Strategic Question 24
Table 4: Summary for each Sub-Strategic Question Sub-Strategic Question Summary The baseline train service specification provides sufficient capacity on this corridor under all growth forecasts in the medium to long term. However, this service pattern of seven trains per hour in addition to a freight path on a predominantly two track railway restricts the available track capacity affecting performance and journey times if an intervention is not delivered. The large quantum of trains, including three services reversing across Hull also heavily utilise the platforms and throat affecting service pattern optimisation, interventions at Hull Station would therefore improve flexibility to deliver the future train service. What are the interventions to improve To meet the conditional outputs of the Long Term Rail Strategy, an additional Hull to York service would the Selby Line Corridor comprising of provide the minimum two trains per hour. The previously identified constraints between Hessle Road Junction Capacity, Connectivity and Journey and Gilberdyke Junction as well as capacity in the Hull Station area are further exacerbated by this service Times? option.
Whilst there is the potential that journey time improvements could assist in providing additional capacity on this section, further assessment of the service pattern and railway constraints would need to be undertaken. Transport for the North continue to work across the industry to identify and develop potential journey time improvement schemes, however the options for this corridor are not at a sufficient level of maturity to be considered in this study. Station Capacity Analysis has considered the different growth forecasts and effect on the station How can the Hull Station Area infrastructure at Hull. In all scenarios, access from the Platforms to the Concourse is highlighted as a accommodate forecast passenger constraint with pedestrian flow on Platform 2 and access to the Concourse also identified as an issue for future growth? growth. Examination of the existing freight flows and Network Rail’s Freight Market Study, in addition to stakeholder feedback, identified the need for an hourly freight path between Hull Docks and Goole to deliver forecast How can freight be accommodated freight demand. The interaction of the freight flow with a mixture of passenger services at Hessle Road alongside future passenger services in Junction and Gilberdyke Junction find the need for an intervention on this section of railway to robustly the Hull Area? accommodate the mixture of the train services in the medium to long term. Gauge enhancement from the existing W8 to W10/W12 could also be considered to maximise the benefit of freight path in the Hull Area. Comparison of the outputs from this study and the emerging outputs for Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) How could Northern Powerhouse Rail have demonstrated that the proposed quantum of train services to meet long term economic growth, albeit aspirations be accommodated with additional levels of crowding, and the service quantum for NPR are the same. Whilst the differences in alongside other services in the Hull destination and train length for NPR are being examined separately within the NPR programme, the Area? consistent service quantum between scenarios has allowed a complementary approach to the future needs of the railway in the Hull Area to be developed.
Hull Area Strategic Question October 2019 25
7.02 Next Steps for the Industry entering the potential interventions into the pipeline. This study has identified a number of potential Should the next stage, a ‘Decision to Develop’, be enhancements to deliver forecast rail growth in the Hull jointly agreed further development through the Area. The options presented are investment choices for pipeline and business case cycle would be potential funders to be considered for development and undertaken toward a ‘Decision to Deliver’ and delivery. Any development should be cognisant of the deployment where the focus would move toward emerging work being undertaken on the Depot and implementing the enhancement and realising the Stabling and Traction Decarbonisation Network Strategy benefits. workstreams to provide a coherent future strategy for The recommendations from this study have been the Hull Area. Where appropriate, schemes should look developed collaboratively with a number of for synergies with identified future renewals to put the stakeholders to deliver a collective view on what is passenger and freight user first to minimise disruption required to deliver future train services in the Hull and ensure value for money. If Central Government Area to support economic growth to 2043. The funding is sought, the development of the schemes System Operator will continue to work with funders should align to the Rail Network Enhancements Pipeline to refine credible options that meet the needs of (RNEP) process, established to create a rolling passengers and freight users; that drive social and programme of enhancements. The decision points for economic benefits; and that fit with the long term investment in the railway are supported by the needs of a reliable railway system to meet wider established Five Case Model for business cases ensuring pan-Northern objectives in the Hull Area. value for money throughout the Lifecyle. Figure 9 illustrates the stages of the RNEP process and identifies where the key decisions for enhancement schemes take place. The first stage of the process, the ‘Decision to Initiate’ stage, is the establishment of the case for intervention and progresses to the development of a Strategic Outline Business Case. This would form the next stage in developing options for the Hull Area,
Figure 9: Illustration of the Rail Network Enhancements Pipeline process
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5 Decision to Decision to Decision to Decision to Acceptance Initiate Determine Develop Develop Design Design Deliver Deliver Deploy
October 2019 Hull Area Strategic Question 26
8 Glossary
Glossary Abbreviation Definition CMSP Continuous Modular Strategic Planning DfT Department for Transport ITSS Indicative Train Service Specification LTPP Long Term Planning Process LTRS Long Term Rail Strategy NPR Northern Powerhouse Rail NRPS National Rail Passenger Survey PIXC Passengers in Excess of Capacity RNEP Rail Network Enhancements Pipeline SOBC Strategic Outline Business Case TfN Transport for the North TRU Transpennine Route Upgrade WebTAG Transport Analysis Guidance
Hull Area Strategic Question October 2019 Network Rail 1 Eversholt Street London NW1 2DN