What is required to accommodate future train services in the Hull Area to support economic growth to 2043? Continuous Modular Strategic Planning October 2019 02 Contents 01: Foreword 03 02: Executive Summary 04 03: Continuous Modular Strategic Planning in the Hull Area 06 04: Hull Area Strategic Context 08 05: Delivering Long Term Growth 11 06: Accommodating Future Services 19 07: Recommendations and Next Steps 23 08: Glossary 26 Hull Area Strategic Question October 2019 03 1 Foreword The Hull Area Continuous Modular Strategic Planning Close working relationships with local stakeholders (CMSP) study forms part of the railway industry’s and Transport for the North (TfN), the region’s Long Term Planning Process (LTPP) covering the Sub National Transport Body, has identified the region in the medium to long term planning horizon. strategic gaps from their Long Term Rail Strategy and interfaces with Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) The railway is an integral part of the Hull, East on the conventional railway in the Hull Area that are Riding and North Yorkshire geography connecting necessary to meet pan-northern objectives. people to places and delivering goods to markets. Rail provides a competitive, efficient and reliable A holistic approach to assessing the needs of the journey offer whether it be between the cities of railway in the Hull Area to cater for growth and the North of England, providing local connections connectivity has included a mixture of service-based between towns and villages, or facilitating freight to and infrastructure options that put the passenger Yorkshire’s European Gateway. In an environment and freight users first. Network Rail has worked with increasing demand for mobility, it is vital that rail collaboratively across the industry with partners and adapts to changing demands to provide an attractive stakeholders to provide a choice for funders on future and accessible network to support economic, social options to deliver a safe, reliable and efficient railway and environmental objectives. Today the railway to drive economic growth in the Hull Area to support network as a whole is more intensively used than at a versatile and competitive North of England. any other point in history, as more people travel it is vital that high levels of performance are attained to deliver a railway that works for the nation. Over the coming years significant investment will lead to a transformation in services in the Hull Area as Northern, Transpennine Express, LNER and Hull Trains deliver more services and seating capacity, further complemented by the Transpennine Route Upgrade (TRU). It is against this backdrop that the Hull Area Strategic Question analyses future growth from 2026 to 2033 and 2043. October 2019 Hull Area Strategic Question 04 2 Executive Summary The Hull Area Strategic Question examines future passenger and freight growth across Hull, East Yorkshire and North Yorkshire covering Scarborough, Brough, Goole and to the east of Selby for 2026, 2033 and 2043 under a range of demand growth scenarios. The study forms part of Network Rail’s Continuous Key areas of economic growth have been identified on Modular Strategic Planning (CMSP) approach to the the Beverley to Hull corridor across all scenarios with a Long Term Planning Process (LTPP) to meet the needs number of options including both train lengthening of the industry in an agile, focused and accessible way. and additional services considered. To accommodate The overarching Strategic Question is supported by five this increasing demand, improving flexibility at sub questions which have been developed Beverley Station through additional crossing capability, collaboratively with stakeholders and industry partners turnback opportunities and understanding the to provide a directed and clear approach to strategic opportunity for service extensions should be examined. planning in the Hull Area. The study has examined a A key challenge going forward for the Hull Area will be series of demand forecast scenarios from the accommodating the number of train services on the Department for Transport, Network Rail System Brough corridor. The mixture of speeds and stopping Operator and Transport for the North (TfN) covering patterns on a predominantly two track railway the medium to long term. A starting point baseline of between Hessle Road Junction and Gilberdyke 2026 has been used to cover the envisaged service Junction has the potential to affect performance and outputs arising from the Transpennine Route Upgrade journey times as capacity is restricted by the service (TRU). Demand has then been forecast out to 2033 structure. and 2043 aligning to key investment decisions such as The Strategic Transport Plan developed by Transport High Speed 2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) to for the North (TfN) to set the region’s transport understand the required service specifications to priorities and unlock an additional £100 billion in facilitate economic growth. economic growth identifies rail as a key component in The train service specification developed to delivering the vision. To deliver the vision, TfN have accommodate future passenger and freight growth in developed a Long Term Rail Strategy (LTRS) to improve the Hull Area has been tested on the existing rail connectivity and productivity to enable economic network to identify constraints and propose railway growth across the North of England. Within the Hull investment choices to address these concerns. Key Area, TfN’s Desirable Minimum Standards for two areas identified by this study are the station throat and passenger trains per hour on each route in the North platform capacity at Hull, both of which are heavily would see an additional service between Hull and York utilised in the future train service specification both in and Hull and Scarborough. As part of the collaborative terms of quantum and increased need for reversing approach of CMSP, a sensitivity of these additional moves due to service structure. Increased platform services above the baseline train service specification capacity, crossings and additional track could facilitate was tested to provide investment choices for funders. additional capacity at Hull Station enabling parallel Under this sensitivity, the previously identified moves between the Brough and Beverley corridor to constraints become more acute and the single track support future train services. Growing passenger section between Bridlington and Hunmanby is unable demand also puts pressure on pedestrian capacity at to accommodate two trains per hour, necessitating a Hull Station both in terms of platform clearance and double track solution on the most optimal section access to the concourse with options to reduce between Bridlington and Bempton. congestion including removal of existing platform furniture and considering how services are platformed. Hull Area Strategic Question October 2019 05 Transport for the North’s major rail programme of The recommendations in this study have been Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) has been considered developed by a number of stakeholders in line with in this study. Close partnership working across the findings from the National Rail Passenger Survey railway geography and comparison of CMSP and the (NRPS) to deliver a coherent and collective view on emerging outputs for NPR has allowed a single what is required to deliver future passenger and narrative on the strategic priorities for the railway in freight services in the Hull Area to support the Hull Area to be developed. This has demonstrated economic growth to 2043. As rail industry long that the proposed quantum of train services to meet term strategic planning evolves, it is important long term planning growth and NPR service aspirations that future studies take into account the work are the same. However, wider network operational undertaken to ensure a consistent and robust plan considerations are being examined by Transport for the for the future network that puts passengers and North separately within their programme to ensure freight users first. consistency for a high performing and reliable network. High level engineering feasibility has assessed the deliverability of identified interventions and produced indicative order of magnitude costings to produce a set of railway investment choices for funders. This paves the way for options to be further developed to a Strategic Outline Business Case (SOBC) in line with the Rail Network Enhancements Pipeline process to mature the potential interventions to deliver the right outcomes for the railway in the Hull Area. October 2019 Hull Area Strategic Question 06 3 Continuous Modular Strategic Planning in the Hull Area As part of Network Rail’s Long Term Planning Process (LTPP)1 Continuous Modular Strategic Planning (CMSP) provides the rail industry with an impartial evidenced based view of the rail network for the medium to long term planning horizon. CMSP provides an agile, responsive and focused view In an environment in which land-use, transport and on the strategic priorities of the network that meets economic development are increasingly devolved to the needs of customers and funders by identifying the local decision makers, Network Rail has developed the future capacity needs and opportunities for rail CMSP process to work closely with stakeholders investment to stimulate economic growth. As a identifying the priorities for the rail network through a collaborative approach to strategic planning, service strategic question approach both