The Skills Mismatch Introduction I Believe That There Is a Disconnect Between the Education System of Our Country and the Needs of the British Economy

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Lord Baker of Dorking CH The Skills Mismatch Introduction I believe that there is a disconnect between the education system of our country and the needs of the British economy. This dysfunction operates at all levels – schools, further education colleges and universities. If we are to deliver the skills required over the next decade radical changes are needed.

At the school level we need more 14 year old specialist colleges. We need FE colleges to spawn 14 year old Career Colleges. And we need universities to attract more STEM students.

University Technical Colleges Ron Dearing and I travelled the length and breadth of England to discuss our ideas for a new generation of technical high schools. We struck a chord. Today, University Technical Colleges are open or planned in every English region.

Everywhere we went, people told us there was an urgent need to inspire more young people to study science, engineering and technology. Employers told us of the difficulties they faced recruiting THE SKILLS MISMATCH people, not just with the right qualifications, but the right practical skills and the right temperament. Lord Baker of Dorking CH They need people with inquiring minds: people who can look at a problem and think “what if …?” University Technical Colleges stand out for several reasons: Chair, the Edge Foundation UTCs recruit at 14, not 11 or 16. By 14, many young people know where their strengths and interests lie. And while most of their contemporaries only start level 2 technical qualifications at 16, UTC students start at 14, giving them a head start.

Employers are involved in all aspects of the UTC curriculum. They choose the technical subjects, shape the timetable, devise and deliver real-world projects and serve as governors.

Universities, too, play a significant role. UTC students know that higher education is within their reach. Some go directly to university when they leave. Others choose the apprenticeship route and enter higher education later, often sponsored by their employers.

UTCs help every student find employment, education or training.

The aim is simple: no NEETs!

In short, UTCs build the knowledge, skills and temperament employers tell us they need.

MARCH 2014

But there are still very many jobs in the middle ground, as shown in Figure 2 – which scarcely The future of the labour market resembles an hourglass.

An hourglass economy? Figure 2: Employment by broad occupation, 20105 The labour market has changed massively over the last thirty years.

Demand for both skilled and unskilled manual workers fell when mines, Managers, directors, senior officials: 3.0m dockyards and steel mills closed and robots replaced factory workers. Meanwhile, demand for graduates rose as we developed a knowledge- Professional occupations: 5.8m based economy. So did demand for shop assistants, waiters, other service industry jobs and – thanks to an ageing population – care assistants. Associate professional: 3.9m This has led many people to describe today’s labour market as an

hourglass. The University Alliance puts it this way: Admin and secretarial: 3.7m

jobs at the top and low-pay, low-skill jobs at the bottom, Graham Stuart MP, Chair of the with hardly any in between. House of Commons Education Retirement Committee It is true that many jobs in the middle of the pay range In debates about the hourglass economy, there’s one trend that gets remarkably little attention, have all but disappeared. Here are some examples of the Oral evidence: Underachievement in education of despite its huge importance: retirement. white working class children, HC 727, 29 January fall in job numbers over 20 years4: 2014 There was a sharp spike in the birth rate following the mass demobilisation of our armed forces in  boring and drilling machine setters: 94% 1946-47. As a result, the number of people reaching the age of 65 leapt by 30% between 2011 and 6  face-trained coal miners: 93% 2012 . Birth rates fell back in the 1950s before rising to another peak in 1965.  grinding machine setters and operators: 86% Thanks to changes in legislation, some people born in this period will stay on in employment beyond 65. Others will opt for part-time work. Nevertheless, we are about to lose skills and experience on an However, this does not tell the whole story. For a start, there is no evidence that wages at the top unprecedented scale. In fact, replacing people is the biggest challenge we face. and bottom of the labour market spectrum have risen faster than wages in the middle, which is what might be expected in an hourglass economy. For another, some jobs have moved up or down the Table 1 is based on forecasts published by the UK Commission for Employment and Skills for the pay scale and are now firmly in the middle ground. Third, the loss of some jobs has been offset by period 2010-2020. These show that upward and downward trends are dwarfed by the number of the creation of others: shorthand secretaries have been replaced by personal assistants and new recruits needed to replace people leaving employment. administrators, for example. And then there are jobs that hadn’t even been invented 20 or 30 years ago, such as social media manager, app developer and data miner.

3 Kackett L, Shutt L and Madachlan N (2012), The Way We’ll Work: Labour Market Trends and Preparing for the 5 Taken from table 4.1 in Wilson RA and Homenidou K (2011), Working Futures 2010-20: Main Report. UKCES Hourglass. London: University Alliance 6 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/9563647/Record-numbers-reach-retirement- 4 McIntosh S (2013), Hollowing out and the future of the labour market, Department for Business, Innovation age-as-baby-boomers-turn-65.html and Skills Research Paper 134

Naturally, I am delighted that so many groups of employers and universities have proposed UTCs, and that in 2013 the Chancellor pledged to fund another Sector snapshot 40Sector over snapshottwo years. This is a real Sectorsuccess snapshot story, with the Smaller specialist units, including Lord Baker of Dorking CH potential to make big inroads into the country’s skill needs University Technology Colleges, In agriculture, forestry and fishing, The creative and digital Construction is the second should be created with stronger links The Skills Mismatch 55% of people are over 45 years of insectors the years are growing to come. rapidly. largest sector of employment age, compared with 38% across the The term “creative” includes in the UK. Replacing people to business, commerce and industry. Introduction economy as a whole. The number of However,film, TV, theatre, the moreradio, I hear aboutwho the leave labour the skilled market, trades the I believe that there is a disconnect between the education system of our country and the needsindividuals of in the sector aged 60 and lesscomputer complacent games, publishing, I become. means recruiting over Sir Michael Wilshaw, Her Majesty’s the British economy. This dysfunction operates at all levels – schools, further education collegesover and increased from 57,000 in 2002 advertising, music, 400,000 people by 2020 – and Chief Inspector universities. If we are to deliver the skills required over the next decade radical changes are needed.to 84,000 in 2010. Given this profile, Aperform turninging/visual point arts,was design a report by that’sthe Royal before Aca net demygrowth ofis it is not surprising that replacement Engineering.and cultural heritage. “Jobs They and Growth: factoredThe Importance in. of “Unseen Children” speech, 20 June 2013 demand is forecast to be very high increasingly depend on digital At the school level we need more 14 year old specialist colleges. We need FE colleges to spawn 14 1 in the decade to 2020. The Sector Engineeringtechnologies, whichSkills provide to the UK Economy”After a downturn, showed the that: sector year old Career Colleges. And we need universities to attract more STEM students. Skills Council, Lantra, forecasts that the infrastructure for is starting to grow again in the 212,000 people will be needed to developing and sharingthe demand forsouth graduate east of engineers England and exceeds supply and the demand is pervasive replace workers who leave the creative content. Theacross two all sectorsother of theregions economy are set to follow in the second half of the University Technical Colleges industry – a remarkable figure, linked sectors will createdemand up to for people in non-graduate science, technology, engineering and maths considering the popular image of 300,000 new jobs between decade. Ron Dearing and I travelled the length and breadth of England to discuss our ideas for a new (STEM) occupations exceeds supply agriculture as a declining industry. 2010 and 2020 – a total Many people think of house generation of technical high schools. We struck a chord. Today, University Technical Colleges are  demand for STEM skills will exceed supply into the foreseeable future increase of 20% in ten years. building and bricklayers when open or planned in every English region. Source: Breuer Z (2012), Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing: Sector Skills Assessment 2012. UKCES Adding in vacancies created they hear the word Professorby people leaving Matthew the industry Harrison, authorconstruction. of the In report, fact, the calculated demand for people with STEM Everywhere we went, people told us there was an urgent need to inspire more young people to qualifications(through retirement, over for the period 2012sector-2020. is much He broader took accountthan of growth in employment opportunities study science, engineering and technology. Employers told us of the difficulties they faced recruitingSector snapshot andexample), the need the industry to replace needs people this,leaving taking the in major labour civil market, for example due to retirement. His figures to recruit up to 800,000 people, not just with the right qualifications, but the right practical skills and the right temperament. show that by 2020, we need: engineering projects such as The health, care and social managers, professionals and Crossrail as well as They need people with inquiring minds: people who can look at a problem and think “what if …?”work sector is doubly affected technicians.  commercial, industrial and by demographic change. Not 830,000 professionals (degree level) University Technical Colleges stand out for several reasons: Source: Williams M, Hillage J, Pinto R and healthcare buildings. Many only is there a need to replace Garrett R (2012), Sector Skills450,000 Insights: technicmodernians (levels buildings 3 and don’t 4) people leaving the workforce, Digital and Creative. UKCES contain any bricks at all; and UTCs recruit at 14, not 11 or 16. By 14, many young people know where their strengths and but Britain’s ageing population dry lining is taking the place interests lie. And while most of their contemporaries only start level 2 technical is leading to a huge increase in of traditional plaster walls. Sector snapshot qualifications at 16, UTC students start at 14, giving them a head start. caring occupations. Between Employers increasingly need 2010 and 2020 there are Hospitality and tourism is a huge specialist skills in forecast to be 695,000 Employers are involved in all aspects of the UTC curriculum. They choose the technical industry spanning hotels, prefabrication, automation, vacancies for caring and other subjects, shape the timetable, devise and deliver real-world projects and serve as governors. restaurants, bars, travel agencies, project management and the service level jobs: within this event planning, tour operators and use of green materials and total, entirely new jobs will Universities, too, play a significant role. UTC students know that higher education is within leisure facilities. Taking account of methods. amount to 125,000 vacancies, staff turnover and net growth in their reach. Some go directly to university when they leave. Others choose the and replacement demand Source: Gambin L, Hogarth T, Atfield G, Li employment, the industry needs to Y, Owen D, Breuer Z and Garrett R, Sector apprenticeship route and enter higher education later, often sponsored by their employers.accounts for 570,000. Skills Insights (2012), Construction. recruit an average of 135,000 UKCES Source: Tamkin P, Behling F, Jones R and people every year between now and UTCs help every student find employment, education or training. Garrett R (2012), Sector Skills Insights: 2020. Health and Social Care. UKCES

Source: Williams M, Luanaigh A and Garrett R The aim is simple: no NEETs! (2012), Sector Skills Insights: Tourism. UKCES

In short, UTCs build the knowledge, skills and temperament employers tell us they need.

1 1 Harrison M (2012), Jobs and Growth: The Importance of Engineering Skills to the UK Economy. Royal Academy of Engineering

But there are still very many jobs in the middle ground, as shown in Figure 2 – which scarcely The future of the labour market resembles an hourglass.

An hourglass economy? Figure 2: Employment by broad occupation, 20105 The labour market has changed massively over the last thirty years.

Since the early 1990s sustained growth in high Skilled trades: 3.5m wage, analytical, non-routine jobs; an expansion The idea that there is this complete of manual, lower wage jobs; and a contraction of hourglass that means there are no Caring, leisure, other service: 2.7m routine, middle-wage jobs has led to a ‘hollowing jobs that people can aspire to and get is not true. They simply are not out’ of the labour market in developed Sales, customer service: 2.6m economies. This creates an hourglass-shaped being prepared properly in order to labour market.3 get them, and they are not aware Process, machines: 1.9m that they are there or what they The image of an hourglass suggests that the modern need to do in order to get there. Elementary: 3.2m economy is broadly divided between high-paid, high-skill jobs at the top and low-pay, low-skill jobs at the bottom, Graham Stuart MP, Chair of the with hardly any in between. House of Commons Education Retirement Committee It is true that many jobs in the middle of the pay range In debates about the hourglass economy, there’s one trend that gets remarkably little attention, have all but disappeared. Here are some examples of the Oral evidence: Underachievement in education of despite its huge importance: retirement. white working class children, HC 727, 29 January fall in job numbers over 20 years4: 2014 There was a sharp spike in the birth rate following the mass demobilisation of our armed forces in  boring and drilling machine setters: 94% 1946-47. As a result, the number of people reaching the age of 65 leapt by 30% between 2011 and 6  face-trained coal miners: 93% 2012 . Birth rates fell back in the 1950s before rising to another peak in 1965.  grinding machine setters and operators: 86% Thanks to changes in legislation, some people born in this period will stay on in employment beyond 65. Others will opt for part-time work. Nevertheless, we are about to lose skills and experience on an However, this does not tell the whole story. For a start, there is no evidence that wages at the top unprecedented scale. In fact, replacing people is the biggest challenge we face. and bottom of the labour market spectrum have risen faster than wages in the middle, which is what might be expected in an hourglass economy. For another, some jobs have moved up or down the Table 1 is based on forecasts published by the UK Commission for Employment and Skills for the pay scale and are now firmly in the middle ground. Third, the loss of some jobs has been offset by period 2010-2020. These show that upward and downward trends are dwarfed by the number of the creation of others: shorthand secretaries have been replaced by personal assistants and new recruits needed to replace people leaving employment. administrators, for example. And then there are jobs that hadn’t even been invented 20 or 30 years ago, such as social media manager, app developer and data miner.

Naturally, I am delighted that so many groups of employers and universities have proposed UTCs, and that in 2013 the Chancellor pledged to fund another 40 over two years. This is a real success story, with the Smaller specialist units, including University Technology Colleges, Naturallypotential, I am to delightedmake big inroadsthat so manyinto the groups country’s of employers skill needs and universities have proposed UTCs, should be created with stronger links andin that the inyears 2013 to the come. Chancellor pledged to fund another to business, commerce and industry. Sector snapshot 40Sector over snapshottwo years. This is a real Sectorsuccess snapshot story, with the Smaller specialist units, including However, the more I hear about the labour market, the Lord Baker of Dorking CH potential to make big inroads into the country’s skill needs University Technology Colleges, In agriculture, forestry and fishing, Theless creative complacent and digital I become. Construction is the second Sir Michael Wilshaw, Her Majesty’s should be created with stronger links The Skills Mismatch 55% of people are over 45 years of insectors the years are growing to come. rapidly. largest sector of employment Chief Inspector However, not enough people are graduating with STEM qualifications. to business, commerce and industry. Introduction age, compared with 38% across the TheA term turning “creative” point includes was a report inby the the UK. Royal Replacing Aca peopledemy of economy as a whole. The number of However,film,Engineering. TV, theatre, the moreradio, “Jobs I hearand Growth:aboutwho the The leave labour Importance the skilled market, trades of the “Unseen Children” speech, 20 June 2013 We face a shortfall of 40,000 graduates every year. I believe that there is a disconnect between the education system of our country and the needsindividuals of in the sector aged 60 and lesscomputer complacent games, publishing, I become. means recruiting over Sir Michael Wilshaw, Her Majesty’s Engineering Skills to the UK Economy”1 showed that: the British economy. This dysfunction operates at all levels – schools, further education collegesover and increased from 57,000 in 2002 advertising, music, 400,000 people by 2020 – and Chief Inspector Shortages of professionals (graduate +) and technicians (level 3/4) are a problem for British industry to 84,000 in 2010. Given this profile, Aperform turninging/visual point arts,was design a report by that’sthe Royal before Aca net demygrowth ofis universities. If we are to deliver the skills required over the next decade radical changes are needed.  the demand for graduate engineers exceeds supply and the demand is pervasive as a whole, but especially for expanding sectors such as the nuclear industry, tunnelling, aerospace it is not surprising that replacement Engineering.and cultural heritage. “Jobs They and Growth: factoredThe Importance in. of “Unseen Children” speech, 20 June 2013 demand is forecast to be very high increasingly depend onacross digital all sectors of the economy and vehicle manufacturing. At the school level we need more 14 year old specialist colleges. We need FE colleges to spawn 14 Engineering Skills to the UK Economy”After a downturn,1 showed the that: sector in the decade to 2020. The Sector technologies, which providedemand for people in non-graduate science, technology, engineering and maths year old Career Colleges. And we need universities to attract more STEM students. is starting to grow again in the As I travel the country, I hear more and more examples of skills shortages, not just in STEM Skills Council, Lantra, forecasts that the infrastructure for (STEM) occupations exceeds supply 212,000 people will be needed to developing and sharingthe demand forsouth graduate east of engineers England and exceeds supply and the demand is pervasive disciplines but in many jobs typically associated with technical and vocational education in sectors as replace workers who leave the creative content. Theacross twodemand all sectors for STEMother of theregions skills economy arewill set exceed to follow supply into the foreseeable future in the second half of the diverse as glass, plastics, agriculture and food processing. University Technical Colleges industry – a remarkable figure, linked sectors will createdemand up to for people in non-graduate science, technology, engineering and maths considering the popular image of 300,000Professor new jobs Matthew between Harrison,decade. author of the report, calculated demand for people with STEM Ron Dearing and I travelled the length and breadth of England to discuss our ideas for a new (STEM) occupations exceeds supply And the situation is about to get much worse because of a spike in the number of people reaching agriculture as a declining industry. 2010qualifications and 2020 – a total over the period 2012-2020. He took account of growth in employment opportunities Many people think of house retirement age. generation of technical high schools. We struck a chord. Today, University Technical Colleges are increase of 20% in tendemand years. for STEM skills will exceed supply into the foreseeable future Source: Breuer Z (2012), Agriculture, Forestry & and the need to replace peoplebuilding leaving and bricklayers the labour when market, for example due to retirement. His figures open or planned in every English region. Adding in vacancies created Fishing: Sector Skills Assessment 2012. UKCES show that by 2020, we need:th ey hear the word The evidence is there for anyone who wants to read it. The UK Commission for Employment and Professorby people leaving Matthew the industry Harrison, authorconstruction. of the In report, fact, the calculated demand for people with STEM Everywhere we went, people told us there was an urgent need to inspire more young people to qualifications(through retirement, over for the period 2012-2020. He took account of growth in employment opportunities Skills publishes comprehensive labour market  830,000 professionalssector is much (degree broader level) than Many businesses – particularly those study science, engineering and technology. Employers told us of the difficulties they faced recruitingSector snapshot andexample), the need the industry to replace needs people this,leaving taking the in major labour civil market, for example due to retirement. His figures information, including employment and skills projections to recruit up to 800,000 450,000 technicians (levels 3 and 4) in high-growth sectors that should people, not just with the right qualifications, but the right practical skills and the right temperament. show that by 2020, we need: engineering projects such as to the year 2020. Their evidence is quoted throughout The health, care and social managers, professionals and Crossrail as well as this report. be leading our economic recovery – They need people with inquiring minds: people who can look at a problem and think “what if …?”work sector is doubly affected technicians.  commercial, industrial and are not confident their future by demographic change. Not 830,000 professionals (degree level) University Technical Colleges stand out for several reasons: Source: Williams M, Hillage J, Pinto R and healthcare buildings. Many But the message is not getting through. Conventional demand for high-skilled employees only is there a need to replace Garrett R (2012), Sector Skills450,000 Insights: technicmodernians (levels buildings 3 and don’t 4) people leaving the workforce, Digital and Creative. UKCES contain any bricks at all; and wisdom has it that a general education will fit all our will be met. UTCs recruit at 14, not 11 or 16. By 14, many young people know where their strengths and but Britain’s ageing population dry lining is taking the place young people for the future. People believe any degree is interests lie. And while most of their contemporaries only start level 2 technical is leading to a huge increase in of traditional plaster walls. a passport to success, while technical and vocational John Cridland, CBI Director-General caring occupations. Between Sector snapshot qualifications at 16, UTC students start at 14, giving them a head start. Employers increasingly need education is for the other 50%. 2010 and 2020 there are Source: Changing the Pace: CBI/Pearson education Hospitality and tourism is a huge specialist skills in forecast to be 695,000 and skills survey 2013 Employers are involved in all aspects of the UTC curriculum. They choose the technical industry spanning hotels, prefabrication, automation, vacancies for caring and other It is high time we turned this on its head. A degree no subjects, shape the timetable, devise and deliver real-world projects and serve as governors. restaurants, bars, travel agencies, project management and the service level jobs: within this longer guarantees success, while looming skills shortages event planning, tour operators and use of green materials and total, entirely new jobs will mean there are great prospects for people with technical and vocational skills. Universities, too, play a significant role. UTC students know that higher education is within leisure facilities. Taking account of methods. amount to 125,000 vacancies, staff turnover and net growth in their reach. Some go directly to university when they leave. Others choose the and replacement demand Source: Gambin L, Hogarth T, Atfield G, Li employment, the industry needs to Y, Owen D, Breuer Z and Garrett R, Sector Of course, young people need a good general education. Above all, they need to be literate and apprenticeship route and enter higher education later, often sponsored by their employers.accounts for 570,000. Skills Insights (2012), Construction. recruit an average of 135,000 numerate. But they also need opportunities for hands-on learning. They need to build bridges from UKCES Source: Tamkin P, Behling F, Jones R and people every year between now and UTCs help every student find employment, education or training. classroom learning to the kind of challenges they will face in the working world. Garrett R (2012), Sector Skills Insights: 2020. Health and Social Care. UKCES This is why I am convinced – more than ever before – that we need more hands-on education in our The aim is simple: no NEETs! Source: Williams M, Luanaigh A and Garrett R (2012), Sector Skills Insights: Tourism. UKCES primary and secondary schools, leading to new pathways at 14.

In short, UTCs build the knowledge, skills and temperament employers tell us they need.

1 Harrison M (2012), Jobs and Growth: The Importance of Engineering Skills to the UK Economy. Royal Academy of Engineering

2 1 Harrison M (2012), Jobs and Growth: The Importance of Engineering Skills to the UK Economy. Royal Academy of Engineering

% of vacancies caused Sales, customer service: 2.6m Managers by skills shortages Professional Managers 20%

Process, machines: 1.9m Associate professional Professional occupations 30% Administrative Associate professional/technical 26% Elementary: 3.2m Administrative/secretarial 13% Skilled trades Skilled trades 39% Caring/leisure/service Caring, leisure and other service 27% Retirement Sales/customer service Sales and customer service 13% Process, plant, machine operatives 25% In debates about the hourglass economy, there’s one trend that gets remarkably little attention, Process, plant, machine Elementary occupations 13% despite its huge importance: retirement. Elementary Skilled trades shortages are particularly affecting the manufacturing, hotel and restaurant, There was a sharp spike in the birth rate following the mass demobilisation of our armed forces in wholesale/retail and business services sectors. 1946-47. As a result, the number of people reaching the age of 65 leapt by 30% between 2011 and 20126. Birth rates fell back in the 1950s before rising to another peak in 1965. In other words, labour market demand is more evenly distributed than most people probably realise. …while youth unemployment remains a serious challenge Thanks to changes in legislation, some people born in this period will stay on in employment beyond In the present decade, more than one in five of all opportunities – three million – will be in In the UK, the employment prospects of young people have been getting gradually worse over recent years. Figure 3 compares the employment rates of 16-14 year olds who have completed their 65. Others will opt for part-time work. Nevertheless, we are about to lose skills and experience on an professional occupations. But there will also be two million opportunities for people with level 4 education with the employment rates of people aged 25-64. The figures are from the October- unprecedented scale. In fact, replacing people is the biggest challenge we face. technical skills and another million for people in the skilled trades. December Labour Force Survey. Table 1 is based on forecasts published by the UK Commission for Employment and Skills for the We’re not talking about the forgotten few: these are the forgotten many. period 2010-2020. These show that upward and downward trends are dwarfed by the number of new recruits needed to replace people leaving employment.

Naturally, I am delighted that so many groups of employers and universities have proposed UTCs, Giving students a head start and that in 2013 the Chancellor pledged to fund another In most schools, worthwhile level 2 technical and vocational courses are deferred until students are Smaller specialist units, including 40 over two years. This is a real success story, with the 16. The most stretching qualifications – BTEC and OCR Diplomas and the Principal Learning University Technology Colleges, Naturallypotential, I am to delightedmake big inroadsthat so manyinto the groups country’s of employers skill needs and universities have proposed UTCs, Qualification – are taken by only around 15% of 16 year olds nationwide. It is not surprising, should be created with stronger links Giving students a head start andin that the inyears 2013 to the come. Chancellor pledged to fund another therefore, that vast numbers of level 2 qualifications are taken by 17 and 18 year olds – over to business, commerce and industry. In most schools, worthwhile level 2 technical and vocational courses are deferred until students are 40 over two years. This is a real success story, with the Smaller specialist units, including 303,000 in 2012. Some go on to level 3 later, but many don’t. However, the more I hear about the labour market, the 16. The most stretching qualifications – BTEC and OCR Diplomas and the Principal Learning potential to make big inroads into the country’s skill needs University Technology Colleges, less complacent I become. Sir Michael Wilshaw, Her Majesty’s Qualification – are taken by only around 15% of 16 year olds nationwide. It is not surprising, should be created with stronger links In UTCs, more than 90% of students complete rigorous level 2 technical qualifications by the age of in the years to come. Chief Inspector However, not enough people are graduating with STEM qualifications. therefore, that vast numbers of level 2 qualifications are taken by 17 and 18 year olds – over to business, commerce and industry. 16. As a result, they are ready to start level 3 qualifications straight away, giving them a real head A turning point was a report by the Royal Academy of 303,000 in 2012. Some go on to level 3 later, but many don’t. “Unseen Children” speech, 20 June 2013 start as they prepare for careers and higher level skills. However,Engineering. the more “Jobs I hearand Growth:about the The labour Importance market, of the We face a shortfall of 40,000 graduates every year. less complacent I become. Sir Michael Wilshaw, Her Majesty’s Engineering Skills to the UK Economy”1 showed that: In UTCs, more than 90% of students complete rigorous level 2 technical qualifications by the age of Chief Inspector Shortages of professionals (graduate +) and technicians (level 3/4) are a problem for British industry Figure 1: students at UTCs and other schools: probability of achieving level 2 technical qualifications16. As a result, by they 162 are ready to start level 3 qualifications straight away, giving them a real head A turning point was a report by the Royal Academy of as a whole, but especially for expanding sectors such as the nuclear industry, tunnelling, aerospace the demand for graduate engineers exceeds“Unseen supply Children” and the speech, demand 20 June is 2013 pervasive start as they prepare for careers and higher level skills. Engineering. “Jobs and Growth: The Importance of across all sectors of the economy and vehicle manufacturing. Engineering Skills to the UK Economy”1 showed that: 100  demand for people in non-graduate science, technology, engineering and maths Figure 1: students at UTCs and other schools: probability of achieving level 2 technical As I travel the country, I hear more and more examples of skills shortages, not just in STEM 2 (STEM) occupations exceeds supply qualifications90 by 16  the demand for graduate engineers exceeds supply and the demand is pervasive disciplines but in many jobs typically associated with technical and vocational education in sectors as across demand all sectors for STEM of the skills economy will exceed supply into the foreseeable future 80 diverse as glass, plastics, agriculture and food processing. 100  demand for people in non-graduate science, technology, engineering and maths Professor Matthew Harrison, author of the report, calculated demand for people with STEM 70 (STEM) occupations exceeds supply And the situation is about to get much worse because of a spike in the number of people reaching 90 qualifications over the period 2012-2020. He took account of growth in employment opportunities 60  demand for STEM skills will exceed supply into the foreseeable future retirement age. and the need to replace people leaving the labour market, for example due to retirement. His figures 80 50 UTC Professorshow that Matthew by 2020, Harrison, we need: author of the report, calculated demand for people with STEM The evidence is there for anyone who wants to read it. The UK Commission for Employment and 70 40 Other schools and colleges qualifications over the period 2012-2020. He took account of growth in employment opportunities Skills publishes comprehensive labour market 60  830,000 professionals (degree level) Many businesses – particularly those and the need to replace people leaving the labour market, for example due to retirement. His figures information, including employment and skills projections 30  450,000 technicians (levels 3 and 4) in high-growth sectors that should 50 UTC show that by 2020, we need: to the year 2020. Their evidence is quoted throughout 20 be leading our economic recovery – Other schools and colleges this report. 40  830,000 professionals (degree level) are not confident their future 10 30  450,000 technicians (levels 3 and 4) But the message is not getting through. Conventional demand for high-skilled employees 0 wisdom has it that a general education will fit all our will be met. 20 Level 2 at 16

young people for the future. People believe any degree is 10 a passport to success, while technical and vocational John Cridland, CBI Director-General Table 1: education is for the other 50%. 0 Source: Changing the Pace: CBI/Pearson education Level 2 at 16 and skills survey 2013 Full level 2 by 16 Full level 2 by 18 Full level 3 by 18 Ready for It is high time we turned this on its head. A degree no Level 4+ at longer guarantees success, while looming skills shortages Table 1: 18? mean there are great prospects for people with technical and vocational skills. UTCs Almost all Already achieved Almost all Yes Other schools AFull few level 2 by 16 MajorityFull level 2 by 18 MinorityFull level 3 by 18 MaybeReady for Of course, young people need a good general education. Above all, they need to be literate and and colleges Level 4+ at numerate. But they also need opportunities for hands-on learning. They need to build bridges from 18? UTCs Almost all Already achieved Almost all Yes classroom learning to the kind of challenges they will face in the working world. Other schools A few Majority Minority Maybe This is why I am convinced – more than ever before – that we need more hands-on education in our and colleges

primary and secondary schools, leading to new pathways at 14.

2 In 2013, there were 95,000 entries for BTEC and OCR level 2 Diplomas in schools in England. There were 1 Harrison M (2012), Jobs and Growth: The Importance of Engineering Skills to the UK Economy. Royal 635,000 students in the year group, meaning no more than 15% of all students in the year group took these Academy of Engineering qualifications. Source: The Data Service, SFR40, GCSE and equivalent results in England 2012/13 (provisional).

3 2 In 2013, there were 95,000 entries for BTEC and OCR level 2 Diplomas in schools in England. There were 1 Harrison M (2012), Jobs and Growth: The Importance of Engineering Skills to the UK Economy. Royal 635,000 students in the year group, meaning no more than 15% of all students in the year group took these Academy of Engineering qualifications. Source: The Data Service, SFR40, GCSE and equivalent results in England 2012/13 (provisional).

Table 2: numbers needed by broad occupation, 2010-20

Growth/decline Replacement demand Total requirement Skills shortages are already getting worse… Figure 4: employment rates over time, 16-24 year-olds who have completed education, compared Managers 544,000 1,306,000 1,850,000 10 Professional occupations 869,000 2,315,000 3,184,000 The UK Commission for Employment and Skills regularly surveys employers to gauge trends in the with 25-64 year olds Associate professional/technical 551,000 1,450,000 2,000,000 labour market. The most recent Employer Skills Survey shows that job vacancies are returning to Administrative/secretarial -387,000 1,695,000 1,309,000 pre-recession levels; good news. 78 Skilled trades -230,000 1,383,000 1,153,000 76 Caring, leisure and other service 313,000 1,144,000 1,457,000 However, many employers find it hard to recruit people with the right skills. This is particularly true Sales and customer service 2,000 938,000 939,000 in manufacturing, where skills shortages affect as many as three in ten vacancies (30%). Agriculture 74 Process, plant, machine operatives -213,000 845,000 633,000 and business services are not far behind – 28% of vacancies are affected by skills shortages – 72 Elementary occupations 101,000 1,243,000 1,344,000 followed by transport and communications (26%), community, social and personal services (24%), 70 16-24 employment rate 7 (%) Source: The UK Commission for Employment and Skills electricity, gas and water (23%) and construction (23%). Sub-sectors of industry also face enormous 68 growth in demand, such as tunnelling and aerospace. 25-64 employment rate 8 66 Figure 3: requirement for new recruits, 2010-20 (%) While shortages are reported for degree level jobs, the biggest problem reported by employers is 64 Total Requirement, 2010-20 filling vacancies in skilled trades, such as electricians and chefs. 62 Table 3: % of vacancies caused by skills shortages, 20139 60

Managers % of vacancies caused by skills shortages Professional Managers 20% The UK is not unique in facing high rates of youth unemployment. However, some countries seem to Associate professional Professional occupations 30% manage the transition from education to work very much better than we do. One crucial reason is Administrative Associate professional/technical 26% their commitment to technical and vocational education. Administrative/secretarial 13% Skilled trades Skilled trades 39% Figure 5 compares male participation in the vocational stream of upper secondary education and the Caring/leisure/service Caring, leisure and other service 27% percentage of men aged 18-24 classed as not in education, employment or training (NEET) in 2011. Sales/customer service Sales and customer service 13% Process, plant, machine operatives 25% Figure 5: enrolment in vocational upper secondary education and youth unemployment11 Process, plant, machine Elementary occupations 13% Elementary 90 Skilled trades shortages are particularly affecting the manufacturing, hotel and restaurant, 80 wholesale/retail and business services sectors. 70 60 50 In other words, labour market demand is more evenly distributed than most people probably realise. …while youth unemployment remains a serious challenge 40 30 In the present decade, more than one in five of all opportunities – three million – will be in In the UK, the employment prospects of young people have been getting gradually worse over 20 professional occupations. But there will also be two million opportunities for people with level 4 recent years. Figure 3 compares the employment rates of 16-14 year olds who have completed their 10 0 technical skills and another million for people in the skilled trades. education with the employment rates of people aged 25-64. The figures are from the October- December Labour Force Survey. We’re not talking about the forgotten few: these are the forgotten many.

Participation in VET (%) NEET 18-24 (%) Linear (Participation in VET (%)) Linear (NEET 18-24 (%))

7 Wilson, R. and Homenidou, K. (2012). Working Futures 2010-2020. UKCES Evidence Report 41 10 Office for National Statistics, Labour Force Survey 8 ibid 11 Source: Eurostat. Enrolments in vocational education:

Giving students a head start In most schools, worthwhile level 2 technical and vocational courses are deferred until students are 16. The most stretching qualifications – BTEC and OCR Diplomas and the Principal Learning There is a massive skills gap. UTCs show it can be done. A longer school day, combined with QualificationGiving students – are taken a head by only start around 15% of 16 year olds nationwide. It is not surprising, From apprenticeships, to a longer school year, make it possible for students to spend therefore,In most schools, that vast worthwhile numbers oflevel level 2 technical 2 qualifications and vocational are taken courses by 17 and are 18deferred year olds until – studentsover are technician level, to engineers 40% of their time studying technical subjects while still covering 303,00016. The inmos 2012.t stretching Some go qualifications on to level 3 –later, BTEC but and many OCR don’t.Diplomas and the Principal Learning …there are shortages across all a spectrum of core subjects including English, maths and InQualification UTCs, more –than are 90%taken of by students only around complete 15% rigorousof 16 year level olds 2 nationwide. technical qualifications It is not surprising, by the age of science. However, not enough people are graduating with STEM qualifications. areas [of engineering]. 16.therefore, As a result, that they vast are numbers ready toof startlevel level2 qualifications 3 qualifications are taken straight by 17away, and gi 18ving year them olds a – real over head 303,000 in 2012. Some go on to level 3 later, but many don’t. Career Colleges are the next step. Led by further education We face a shortfall of 40,000 graduates every year. start as they prepare for careers and higher level skills. Vince Cable, Secretary of State for Business, Innovation colleges, they will take the UTC concept into subjects other In UTCs, more than 90% of students complete rigorous level 2 technical qualifications by the age of than science, engineering and technology. Early expressions of Shortages of professionals (graduate +) and technicians (level 3/4) are a problem for British industry Figure 1: students at UTCs and other schools: probability of achieving level 2 technical and Skills 16. As a result, they2 are ready to start level 3 qualifications straight away, giving them a real head interest range from digital and creative media to hospitality as a whole, but especially for expanding sectors such as the nuclear industry, tunnelling, aerospace qualifications by 16 start as they prepare for careers and higher level skills. Quoted in “Growth put at risk as talent and catering. and vehicle manufacturing. pool dries up”, Financial Times, 14 June 100 2013 Figure 1: students at UTCs and other schools: probability of achieving level 2 technical This is not about closing doors. Ambitious young people will As I travel the country, I hear more and more examples of skills shortages, not just in STEM 2 qualifications90 by 16 leave UTCs and Career Colleges to take up Advanced and Higher Apprenticeships, level 4 courses disciplines but in many jobs typically associated with technical and vocational education in sectors as 80 (including Foundation Degrees) in further education colleges and universities, and both full and part- diverse as glass, plastics, agriculture and food processing. 100 time degrees. Some will go straight into higher level studies; others will go later, after gaining 70 And the situation is about to get much worse because of a spike in the number of people reaching 90 valuable experience in the workplace. 60 retirement age. 80 And to be equally clear, this is not about “the other 50%”. This is about new opportunities for 50 UTC The evidence is there for anyone who wants to read it. The UK Commission for Employment and 70 anyone who wants to combine rigorous study with hands-on learning. Anyone who wants a career Other schools and colleges 40 in the modern economy. Anyone who understands that a degree is no longer a guarantee of a Skills publishes comprehensive labour market 60 information, including employment and skills projections Many businesses – particularly those 30 prosperous future. in high-growth sectors that should 50 UTC to the year 2020. Their evidence is quoted throughout 20 this report. be leading our economic recovery – 40 Other schools and colleges are not confident their future 10 Sector snapshot 30 But the message is not getting through. Conventional demand for high-skilled employees 0 The creative and digital sectors are growing rapidly. The term “creative” wisdom has it that a general education will fit all our will be met. 20 Level 2 at 16 includes film, TV, theatre, radio, computer games, publishing, advertising, young people for the future. People believe any degree is 10 music, performing/visual arts, design and cultural heritage. They increasingly John Cridland, CBI Director-General a passport to success, while technical and vocational Table 1: depend on digital technologies, which provide the infrastructure for 0 developing and sharing creative content. The two linked sectors will create education is for the other 50%. Source: Changing the Pace: CBI/Pearson education Level 2 at 16 up to 300,000 new jobs between 2010 and 2020 – a total increase of 20% in and skills survey 2013 Full level 2 by 16 Full level 2 by 18 Full level 3 by 18 Ready for ten years. Adding in vacancies created by people leaving the industry It is high time we turned this on its head. A degree no Level 4+ at (through retirement, for example), the industry needs to recruit up to longer guarantees success, while looming skills shortages Table 1: 18? 800,000 managers, professionals and technicians. mean there are great prospects for people with technical and vocational skills. UTCs Almost all Already achieved Almost all Yes Full level 2 by 16 Full level 2 by 18 Full level 3 by 18 Ready for Source: Williams M, Hillage J, Pinto R and Garrett R (2012), Sector Skills Insights: Digital and Creative. Other schools A few Majority Minority Maybe UKCES Of course, young people need a good general education. Above all, they need to be literate and and colleges Level 4+ at numerate. But they also need opportunities for hands-on learning. They need to build bridges from 18? UTCs Almost all Already achieved Almost all Yes classroom learning to the kind of challenges they will face in the working world. Sector snapshot Other schools A few Majority Minority Maybe and colleges This is why I am convinced – more than ever before – that we need more hands-on education in our Construction is the second largest sector of employment in the UK. primary and secondary schools, leading to new pathways at 14. Replacing people who leave the skilled trades means recruiting over 400,000 people by 2020 – and that’s before net growth is factored in.

After a downturn, the sector is starting to grow again in the south east of 2 In 2013, there were 95,000 entries for BTEC and OCR level 2 Diplomas in schools in England. There were England and other regions are set to follow in the second half of the decade. 635,000 students in the year group, meaning no more than 15% of all students in the year group took these qualifications. Source: The Data Service, SFR40, GCSE and equivalent results in England 2012/13 (provisional). Many people think of house building and bricklayers when they hear the word construction. In fact, the sector is much broader than this, taking in 2 In 2013, there were 95,000 entries for BTEC and OCR level 2 Diplomas in schools in England. There were 4 major civil engineering projects such as Crossrail as well as commercial, 635,000 students in the year group, meaning no more than 15% of all students in the year group took these industrial and healthcare buildings. Many modern buildings don’t contain qualifications. Source: The Data Service, SFR40, GCSE and equivalent results in England 2012/13 (provisional). any bricks at all; and dry lining is taking the place of traditional plaster walls. Employers increasingly need specialist skills in prefabrication, automation,

project management and the use of green materials and methods.

Source: Gambin L, Hogarth T, Atfield G, Li Y, Owen D, Breuer Z and Garrett R, Sector Skills Insights (2012), Construction. UKCES

There are bumps along both lines. Italy, for example, has high rates of youth unemployment despite Skills shortages are already getting worse… Figure 4: employment rates over time, 16-24 year-olds who have completed education, compared highThere rates are of bumps enrolment along on both vocational lines. Italy, programmes for example in ,upper has high secondary rates of education.youth unemployment Nevertheless, despite the The UK Commission for Employment and Skills regularly surveys employers to gauge trends in the with 25-64 year olds10 lineshigh of rates best of fit enrolment show that onon vocationalaverage, countries programmes with inhigher upper enrolments secondary in education. vocational Nevertheless, pathways have the labour market. The most recent Employer Skills Survey shows that job vacancies are returning to lowerlines ratesof best of fityouth show unemployment, that on average, and countries vice versa. with higher enrolments in vocational pathways have 78 pre-recession levels; good news. lower rates of youth unemployment, and vice versa. 76 The challenge of youth unemployment was explored in a recent report by McKinsey, “Getting However, many employers find it hard to recruit people with the right skills. This is particularly true Europe’sThe challenge Youth intoof youth Work” unemployment12, a comparative was review explored of eightin a recent countries: report France, by McKinsey, Germany, “Getting Greece, in manufacturing, where skills shortages affect as many as three in ten vacancies (30%). Agriculture 74 Italy,Europe’s Portugal, Youth Spain, into SwedenWork”12 ,a and comparative the UK. They review found of that eight an countries: overriding France, reason Germany,for young Greece,people and business services are not far behind – 28% of vacancies are affected by skills shortages – 72 beingItaly, held Portugal, back isSpain, a lack Sweden of skills a relevantnd the UK. to theThey workplace. found that an overriding reason for young people followed by transport and communications (26%), community, social and personal services (24%), 70 16-24 employment rate being held back is a lack of skills relevant to the workplace. (%) electricity, gas and water (23%) and construction (23%). Sub-sectors of industry also face enormous 68 They also found that in some countries, young people veer away from technical and vocational growth in demand, such as tunnelling and aerospace. 25-64 employment rate education,They also evenfound though that in they some apprec countries,iate its young value. people Overall, veer 80% away of young from technical people surveyed and vocational by 66 (%) McKinseyeducation, agreed even thatthough vocational they apprec educationiate its is value. most helpfulOverall, for 80% getting of young a job. people However, surveyed fewer by than While shortages are reported for degree level jobs, the biggest problem reported by employers is 64 halfMcKinsey of those agreed who wanted that vocational to undertake education a vocational is most coursehelpful actually for getting did aso. job. However, fewer than filling vacancies in skilled trades, such as electricians and chefs. 62 half of those who wanted to undertake a vocational course actually did so. When the researchers turned their attention specifically to the UK, they were struck by the Table 3: % of vacancies caused by skills shortages, 20139 60 imbalanceWhen the between researchers academic turned and their vocational attention forms specifically of education: to the UK, they were struck by the % of vacancies caused imbalance between academic and vocational forms of education: Only 12 percent of United Kingdom young people gain a post-secondary vocational by skills shortages Only 12 percent of United Kingdom young people gain a post-secondary vocational Managers 20% The UK is not unique in facing high rates of youth unemployment. However, some countries seem to qualification; in contrast, more than four times this number go to university. However, more thanqualification; a quarter (27in contrast, percent) more of young than people four times with this an academicnumber go degree to university. reported However, being more Professional occupations 30% manage the transition from education to work very much better than we do. One crucial reason is unemployedthan a quarter six months(27 percent) after of leaving young education, people with compared an academic with degreeonly 21 reported percent ofbeing those Associate professional/technical 26% their commitment to technical and vocational education. Administrative/secretarial 13% withunemployed vocational six training. months The after United leaving Kingdo education,m is the compared only country with surveyedonly 21 percent where of recent those Skilled trades 39% Figure 5 compares male participation in the vocational stream of upper secondary education and the graduateswith vocational of vocational training. courses The United are more Kingdo likelym is to the be only employed country than surveyed academic where graduates. recent Caring, leisure and other service 27% percentage of men aged 18-24 classed as not in education, employment or training (NEET) in 2011. graduates of vocational courses are more likely to be employed than academic graduates. Sales and customer service 13% In addition, the United Kingdom reported the lowest number of young people undertaking Process, plant, machine operatives 25% Figure 5: enrolment in vocational upper secondary education and youth unemployment11 workIn addition, placements. the United Kingdom reported the lowest number of young people undertaking Elementary occupations 13% work placements. 90 And to complete the bad news, “the United Kingdom faces a skills crunch in areas related to science, Skilled trades shortages are particularly affecting the manufacturing, hotel and restaurant, 80 technology,And to complete engineering, the bad and news, maths”. “the United Kingdom faces a skills crunch in areas related to science, wholesale/retail and business services sectors. 70 60 technology, engineering, and maths”. 50 In short, we have an enormous skills mismatch. It is already evident in the figures for youth …while youth unemployment remains a serious challenge 40 unemployment,In short, we have and an it enormous is set to get skills much mismatch. worse in It the is alreadyyears to eviden come.t in the figures for youth 30 In the UK, the employment prospects of young people have been getting gradually worse over 20 unemployment, and it is set to get much worse in the years to come. recent years. Figure 3 compares the employment rates of 16-14 year olds who have completed their 10 education with the employment rates of people aged 25-64. The figures are from the October- 0 December Labour Force Survey.

Participation in VET (%) NEET 18-24 (%) Linear (Participation in VET (%)) Linear (NEET 18-24 (%))

10 Office for National Statistics, Labour Force Survey 11 Source: Eurostat. Enrolments in vocational education: 12 Mourshed M, Patel J and Sudar K (2014), Education to Employment: Getting Europe’s Youth into Work http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/refreshTableAction.do?tab=table&plugin=0&pcode=tps00055&languag 12 9 Winterbotham M, Vivian D, Shury J, Davies B and Kik G (2014) The UK Commission’s Employer Skills Survey http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/social_sector/converting_education_to_employment_in_europe Mourshed M, Patel J and Sudar K (2014), Education to Employment: Getting Europe’s Youth into Work acce ssed e=en NEET data: http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/submitViewTableAction.do Accessed 21 January 2013: UK Results. 11http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/social_sector/converting_education_to_employment_in_europe February 2014 accessed 2014 11 February 2014

0 The creative and digital sectors are growing rapidly. The term “creative” 20 Level 2 at 16 includes film, TV, theatre, radio, computer games, publishing, advertising,

10 music, performing/visual arts, design and cultural heritage. They increasingly

Table 1: depend on digital technologies, which provide the infrastructure for 0 developing and sharing creative content. The two linked sectors will create Level 2 at 16 Full level 2 by 16 Full level 2 by 18 Full level 3 by 18 Ready for up to 300,000 new jobs between 2010 and 2020 – a total increase of 20% in ten years. Adding in vacancies created by people leaving the industry Level 4+ at (through retirement, for example), the industry needs to recruit up to Table 1: 18? 800,000 managers, professionals and technicians. UTCs Almost all Already achieved Almost all Yes Full level 2 by 16 Full level 2 by 18 Full level 3 by 18 Ready for Source: Williams M, Hillage J, Pinto R and Garrett R (2012), Sector Skills Insights: Digital and Creative. Other schools A few Majority Minority Maybe UKCES and colleges Level 4+ at 18? UTCs Almost all Already achieved Almost all Yes Sector snapshot Other schools A few Majority Minority Maybe and colleges Construction is the second largest sector of employment in the UK.

Replacing people who leave the skilled trades means recruiting over 400,000 people by 2020 – and that’s before net growth is factored in.

After a downturn, the sector is starting to grow again in the south east of 2 In 2013, there were 95,000 entries for BTEC and OCR level 2 Diplomas in schools in England. There were England and other regions are set to follow in the second half of the decade. 635,000 students in the year group, meaning no more than 15% of all students in the year group took these qualifications. Source: The Data Service, SFR40, GCSE and equivalent results in England 2012/13 (provisional). Many people think of house building and bricklayers when they hear the word construction. In fact, the sector is much broader than this, taking in 2 In 2013, there were 95,000 entries for BTEC and OCR level 2 Diplomas in schools in England. There were major civil engineering projects such as Crossrail as well as commercial, 5 635,000 students in the year group, meaning no more than 15% of all students in the year group took these industrial and healthcare buildings. Many modern buildings don’t contain qualifications. Source: The Data Service, SFR40, GCSE and equivalent results in England 2012/13 (provisional). any bricks at all; and dry lining is taking the place of traditional plaster walls. Employers increasingly need specialist skills in prefabrication, automation,

project management and the use of green materials and methods.

Source: Gambin L, Hogarth T, Atfield G, Li Y, Owen D, Breuer Z and Garrett R, Sector Skills Insights (2012), Construction. UKCES

25-64 employment rate education,They also evenfound though that in they some apprec countries,iate its young value. people Overall, veer 80% away of young from technical people surveyed and vocational by 66 (%) McKinseyeducation, agreed even thatthough vocational they apprec educationiate its is value. most helpfulOverall, for 80% getting of young a job. people However, surveyed fewer by than 64 halfMcKinsey of those agreed who wanted that vocational to undertake education a vocational is most coursehelpful actually for getting did aso. job. However, fewer than 62 half of those who wanted to undertake a vocational course actually did so. When the researchers turned their attention specifically to the UK, they were struck by the 60 imbalanceWhen the between researchers academic turned and their vocational attention forms specifically of education: to the UK, they were struck by the imbalance between academic and vocational forms of education: Only 12 percent of United Kingdom young people gain a post-secondary vocational Only 12 percent of United Kingdom young people gain a post-secondary vocational The UK is not unique in facing high rates of youth unemployment. However, some countries seem to qualification; in contrast, more than four times this number go to university. However, more thanqualification; a quarter (27in contrast, percent) more of young than people four times with this an academicnumber go degree to university. reported However, being more manage the transition from education to work very much better than we do. One crucial reason is unemployedthan a quarter six months(27 percent) after of leaving young education, people with compared an academic with degreeonly 21 reported percent ofbeing those their commitment to technical and vocational education. withunemployed vocational six training. months The after United leaving Kingdo education,m is the compared only country with surveyedonly 21 percent where of recent those Figure 5 compares male participation in the vocational stream of upper secondary education and the graduateswith vocational of vocational training. courses The United are more Kingdo likelym is to the be only employed country than surveyed academic where graduates. recent percentage of men aged 18-24 classed as not in education, employment or training (NEET) in 2011. graduates of vocational courses are more likely to be employed than academic graduates. In addition, the United Kingdom reported the lowest number of young people undertaking Figure 5: enrolment in vocational upper secondary education and youth unemployment11 workIn addition, placements. the United Kingdom reported the lowest number of young people undertaking work placements. 90 And to complete the bad news, “the United Kingdom faces a skills crunch in areas related to science, 80 technology,And to complete engineering, the bad and news, maths”. “the United Kingdom faces a skills crunch in areas related to science, 70 60 technology, engineering, and maths”. 50 In short, we have an enormous skills mismatch. It is already evident in the figures for youth 40 unemployment,In short, we have and an it enormous is set to get skills much mismatch. worse in It the is alreadyyears to eviden come.t in the figures for youth 30 20 unemployment, and it is set to get much worse in the years to come. 10 0

Participation in VET (%) NEET 18-24 (%) Linear (Participation in VET (%)) Linear (NEET 18-24 (%))

10 Office for National Statistics, Labour Force Survey 11 Source: Eurostat. Enrolments in vocational education: 12 Mourshed M, Patel J and Sudar K (2014), Education to Employment: Getting Europe’s Youth into Work http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/refreshTableAction.do?tab=table&plugin=0&pcode=tps00055&languag http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/social_sector/converting_education_to_employment_in_europe12 Mourshed M, Patel J and Sudar K (2014), Education to Employment: Getting Europe’s Youth into Work acce ssed e=en NEET data: http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/submitViewTableAction.do Accessed 21 January 11http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/social_sector/converting_education_to_employment_in_europe February 2014 accessed 2014 11 February 2014

At the school level we need more 14 year old specialist colleges. We need FE colleges to spawn 14 year old Career Colleges. And we need universities to attract more STEM students.

University Technical Colleges stand out for several reasons:

UTCs recruit at 14, not 11 or 16. By 14, many young people know where their strengths and interests lie. And while most of their contemporaries only start level 2 technical qualifications at 16, UTC students start at 14, giving them a head start.

Employers are involved in all aspects of the UTC curriculum. They choose the technical subjects, shape the timetable, devise and deliver real-world projects and serve as governors.

UTCs help every student find employment, education or training.

The aim is simple: no NEETs!

In short, UTCs build the knowledge, skills and temperament employers tell us they need.

But there are still very many jobs in the middle ground, as shown in Figure 2 – which scarcely The future of the labour market resembles an hourglass. But there are still very many jobs in the middle ground, as shown in Figure 2 – which scarcely The future of the labour market 5 An hourglass economy? Figureresembles 2: Employment an hourglass. by broad occupation, 2010 An hourglass economy?The labour market has changed massively over the last thirty years. 5 DemandThe labour for marketboth skilled has changed and unskilled massively manual over workers the last fe thirtyll when years. mines, Figure 2: Employment by broad occupation, 2010 Managers, directors, senior officials: 3.0m dockyardsDemand for and both steel skilled mills closedand unskilled and robots manual replaced workers factory fell wh workersen mines,.

Meanwhile,dockyards and demand steel formills graduates closed and rose robots as we replaced developed factory a knowledge workers.- Managers,Professional directors, occupations: senior officials:5.8m 3.0m basedMeanwhile, economy. demand So did for demand graduates for shoprose asassistants, we developed waiters a ,knowledge other service- industrybased economy. jobs and –So thanks did demand to an ageing for shop population assistants, – carewaiters assistants., other service AssociateProfessional professional: occupations: 3.9m 5.8m industry jobs and – thanks to an ageing population – care assistants. This has led many people to describe today’s labour market as an hourglass. The University AllianceThis has puts led many it this people way: to describe today’s labour market as an AdminAssociate and secretarial: professional: 3.7m 3.9m hourglass. The University Alliance puts it this way: Since the early 1990s sustained growth in high AdminSkilled and trades: secretarial: 3.5m 3.7m The idea that there is this complete wage,Since analytical,the early 1990s non-routine sustained jobs; growth an expansion in high ofwage, manual, analytical, lower wage non-routine jobs; and jobs; a contraction an expansion of hourglassThe idea that theremeans is there this complete are no Caring, leisure,Skilled other trades: service: 3.5m 2.7m

routine,of manual, middle lower-wage wage jobs jobs; has and led ato contraction a ‘hollowing of jobshourglass that people that means can aspire there to are and no out’routine, of the middle labour-wage market jobs in hasdeveloped led to a ‘hollowing getjobs is thatnot true. people They can simply aspire are to andnot Sales,Caring, customer leisure, otherservice: service: 2.6m 2.7m

economies.out’ of the Thislabour creates market an in hourglass developed-shaped beingget is prepared not true. properlyThey simply in order are not to 3 laboureconomies. market. This creates an hourglass-shaped getbeing them, prepared and they properly are not in aware order to Process,Sales, customer machines: service: 1.9m 2.6m labour market.3 thatget theythem, are and there they or are what not they aware The image of an hourglass suggests that the modern needthat tothey do arein order there to or get what there. they Process,Elementary: machines: 3.2m 1.9m economyThe image is broadlyof an hourglass divided suggestsbetween that high the-paid, modern high-skill need to do in order to get there. jobseconomy at the istop broadly and low divided-pay, lowbetween-skill jobs high at-paid, the bottom,high-skill Graham Stuart MP, Chair of the Elementary: 3.2m withjobs hardly at the anytop inand between. low-pay, low-skill jobs at the bottom, HouseGraham of CommonsStuart MP, Education Chair of the Retirement with hardly any in between. CommitteeHouse of Commons Education It is true that many jobs in the middle of the pay range In debates about the hourglass economy, there’s one trend that gets remarkably little attention, Committee haveIt is trueall but that disappeared. many jobs inHere the aremiddle some of examples the pay range of the Oral evidence: Underachievement in education of despiteRetirement its huge importance : retirement. white working class children, HC 727, 29 January fall in job numbers over 20 years4: Oral evidence: Underachievement in education of In debates about the hourglass economy, there’s one trend that gets remarkably little attention, have all but disappeared. Here are some examples of the 2014 There was a sharp spike in the birth rate following the mass demobilisation of our armed forces in 4 white working class children, HC 727, 29 January despite its huge importance: retirement. fall in job numbers over 20 years : 2014  boring and drilling machine setters: 94% 1946-47. As a result, the number of people reaching the age of 65 leapt by 30% between 2011 and There6 was a sharp spike in the birth rate following the mass demobilisation of our armed forces in  faceborin-trainedg and drillingcoal miners machine: 93% setters: 94% 2012 . Birth rates fell back in the 1950s before rising to another peak in 1965. 1946-47. As a result, the number of people reaching the age of 65 leapt by 30% between 2011 and  grindingface-trained machine coal settersminers :and 93% operators : 86% Thanks2012 to6. Birthchanges rates in felllegislation, back in thesome 1950s people before born rising in this to periodanother will peak stay in on 1965. in employment beyond  grinding machine setters and operators: 86% 65. Others will opt for part-time work. Nevertheless, we are about to lose skills and experience on an However, this does not tell the whole story. For a start, there is no evidence that wages at the top unprecedentedThanks to changes scale. inIn legislation,fact, replacing some people people is theborn biggest in this challenge period will we stay face. on in employment beyond andHowever, bottom this of thedoes labour not tell market the whole spectrum story. have For risena start, faster there than is no wages evidence in the that middle, wages which at the is topwhat 65. Others will opt for part-time work. Nevertheless, we are about to lose skills and experience on an mightand bottom be expected of the in labour an hourglass market spectrumeconomy. haveFor another risen faster, some than jobs wages have inmoved the middle, up or down which the is what Tableunprecedented 1 is based on scale. forecasts In fact, published replacing by peoplethe UK isCommission the biggest for challenge Employment we face. and Skills for the paymight scale be and expected are now in anfirmly hourglass in the middleeconomy ground.. For another Third, the, some loss jobs of some have j obsmoved has upbeen or downoffset theby period 2010-2020. These show that upward and downward trends are dwarfed by the number of thepay creation scale and of areothers: now shorthand firmly in the secretaries middle ground. have been Third replaced, the loss by of personal some jobs assistants has been and offset by newTable recruits 1 is basedneeded on to forecasts replace peoplepublished leaving by the employment. UK Commission for Employment and Skills for the administratorsthe creation of, forothers: example. shorthand And t hensecretaries there are have jobs been that replaced hadn’t even by personal been invented assistants 20 or and 30 years period 2010-2020. These show that upward and downward trends are dwarfed by the number of ago,administrators such as social, for media example. manager, And t henapp theredeveloper are jobs and that data hadn’t miner. even been invented 20 or 30 years new recruits needed to replace people leaving employment. ago, such as social media manager, app developer and data miner.

3 5 Kackett L, Shutt L and Madachlan N (2012), The Way We’ll Work: Labour Market Trends and Preparing for the Taken from table 4.1 in Wilson RA and Homenidou K (2011), Working Futures 2010-20: Main Report. UKCES 6 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/9563647/Record-numbers-reach-retirement- Hourglass.3 Kackett L,London: Shutt L Universityand Madachlan Alliance N (2012), The Way We’ll Work: Labour Market Trends and Preparing for the 4 age-as-baby-boomers-turn-65.html Hourglass.McIntosh S London: (2013), HollowingUniversity outAlliance and the future of the labour market, Department for Business, Innovation 5 Taken from table 4.1 in Wilson RA and Homenidou K (2011), Working Futures 2010-20: Main Report. UKCES and4 Skills Research Paper 134 6 6 McIntosh S (2013), Hollowing out and the future of the labour market, Department for Business, Innovation http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/9563647/Record-numbers-reach-retirement - and Skills Research Paper 134 age-as-baby-boomers-turn-65.html

Education: the skills mismatch starts early TheEducation: Education and the Employers skills mismatchTaskforce recently starts compared early young people’s career aspirations with 13 theThe labour Education market’s and Employers current and Taskforce future needs recently. They compared found anyoung enormous people’s mismatch. career aspirations with the labour market’s current and future needs13. They found an enormous mismatch. Interest in some careers far outweighs the number of vacancies on offer. Among 13-14 year olds, moreInterest than in asome quarter careers - 27% far - saidoutweighs they would the number like jobs of in vacancies culture, mediaon offer. or sport,Among whereas 13-14 year these olds, sectorsmore than combined a quarter will - provide27% - said only they 2% would of all vacancies like jobs in between culture, 2010media and or 2sport,020. whereas these sectors combined will provide only 2% of all vacancies between 2010 and 2020. At the opposite end of the spectrum, no 11-12 year olds – zero percent – expressed interest in a careerAt the inopposite manufacturing, end of the even spectrum, though nothe 11 sector-12 year provides olds – over zero 10%percent of all – expressedjobs in the interestUK economy. in a career in manufacturing, even though the sector provides over 10% of all jobs in the UK economy. This is partly a failure of careers education. Children know about the jobs they see in their daily lives, whetherThis is partly at school, a failure in theof careers high street education. or on television. Children know They about the jobs they see in their daily lives, dowhether not know at school, about thein the myriad high streetjobs done or on on television. office parks They Concerns have also been expressed anddo not industrial know about estates. the We myriad need jobs to open done up on opportunities office parks aboutConcerns the havepractical also contentbeen expressed of the forand them industrial to find estates. out about We aneed whole to openvariety up of opportunities careers, scienceabout the curriculum. practical Thecontent Gatsby of the startingfor them in to primary find out school. about a whole variety of careers, Charitablescience curriculum. Foundation The said: Gatsby starting in primary school. Charitable Foundation said: But we should be just as concerned about the school There has been a steady curriculum.But we should There be isjust too as little concerned learning about by doing. the school erosionThere has of thebeen teaching a steady of curriculum. There is too little learning by doing. laboratoryerosion of theskills. teaching This erosion of is When I introduced the National Curriculum, I was proud to alaboratory cause of significant skills. This concernerosion is includeWhen I Designintroduced and Technologythe National alongside Curriculum, mor I ewas traditional proud to toa causeindustry of significantand higher concern subjectsinclude Design such as and maths Technology and science. alongside I was convincedmore traditional young educationto industry institutions. and higher peoplesubjects would such benefitas maths from and learning science. aboutI was convincedthe “made young education institutions. world”.people wouldI was equally benefit convinced from learning that aboutthe subject the “made should Ofsted backed this up in a 2013 includeworld”. handsI was -equallyon learning: convinced design thating theand subjectmaking shouldtangible reportOfsted on backed science this in up schools: in a 2013 objectsinclude andhands learning-on learning: to use designa varietying of and tools, making machines tangible report on science in schools: Too many school leavers are andobjects materials. and learning to use a variety of tools, machines not well-enough equipped and materials. Too many school leavers are Since then, however: scientificallynot well-enough with equipped practical, Since then, however: investigativescientifically withand analytical practical, The development of D & T in the UK has seen a skills.investigative and analytical moveThe development away from a of skills D &-focused T in the curriculumUK has seen to a a 14 skills. knowledgemove away-focused from a skills one.-focused curriculum to a The Gatsby Charitable Foundation, written evidence to House of Commons Science and 14 knowledge-focused one. TechnologyThe Gatsby CommitteeCharitable Foundation (Sch Sci 23),, written2011 Many schools offer a so-called carousel, in which students evidence to House of Commons Science and spendMany blocksschools of offer eight a weeksso-called studying carousel, food in technology,which students Ofsted,Technology Maintaining Committee curiosity: (Sch Sci a survey23), 2011 into science education in schools, 2013 textiles,spend blocks graphic of designeight weeks and so studying on. This food leaves technology, little time to Ofsted, Maintaining curiosity: a survey into gettextiles, to grips graphic with designany of theand areas so on. of This study; leaves little little time time to to science education in schools, 2013 thinkget to deeply grips with about any designing, of the areas making of study; and evaluating little time tangibleto products. think deeply about designing, making and evaluating tangible products.

13 Education and Employers Taskforce (2013), Nothing in common: The career aspirations of young Britons mapped against projected labour market demand (2010-2020) 13 Education and Employers Taskforce (2013), Nothing in common: The career aspirations of young Britons 14 Martin M and Owen-Jackson G, “Is design and technology about making or knowing?” in Owen-Jackson G mapped against projected labour market demand (2010-2020) (ed) (2013), Debates in Design and Technology Education, edited by Gwyneth. Abingdon: Routledge 14 Martin M and Owen-Jackson G, “Is design and technology about making or knowing?” in Owen-Jackson G (ed) (2013), Debates in Design and Technology Education, edited by Gwyneth. Abingdon: Routledge

Naturally, I am delighted that so many groups of employers and universities have proposed UTCs, and that in 2013 the Chancellor pledged to fund another 40 over two years. This is a real success story, with the Smaller specialist units, including Lord Baker of Dorking CH potential to make big inroads into the country’s skill needs University Technology Colleges, The Skills Mismatch in the years to come. should be created with stronger links to business, commerce and industry. Introduction However, the more I hear about the labour market, the I believe that there is a disconnect between the education system of our country and the needs of less complacent I become. Sir Michael Wilshaw, Her Majesty’s the British economy. This dysfunction operates at all levels – schools, further education colleges and Chief Inspector universities. If we are to deliver the skills required over the next decade radical changes are needed. A turning point was a report by the Royal Academy of Engineering. “Jobs and Growth: The Importance of “Unseen Children” speech, 20 June 2013 At the school level we need more 14 year old specialist colleges. We need FE colleges to spawn 14 Engineering Skills to the UK Economy”1 showed that: year old Career Colleges. And we need universities to attract more STEM students.  the demand for graduate engineers exceeds supply and the demand is pervasive across all sectors of the economy University Technical Colleges  demand for people in non-graduate science, technology, engineering and maths Ron Dearing and I travelled the length and breadth of England to discuss our ideas for a new (STEM) occupations exceeds supply generation of technical high schools. We struck a chord. Today, University Technical Colleges are  demand for STEM skills will exceed supply into the foreseeable future open or planned in every English region. Professor Matthew Harrison, author of the report, calculated demand for people with STEM Everywhere we went, people told us there was an urgent need to inspire more young people to qualifications over the period 2012-2020. He took account of growth in employment opportunities study science, engineering and technology. Employers told us of the difficulties they faced recruiting and the need to replace people leaving the labour market, for example due to retirement. His figures people, not just with the right qualifications, but the right practical skills and the right temperament. show that by 2020, we need: They need people with inquiring minds: people who can look at a problem and think “what if …?”  830,000 professionals (degree level) University Technical Colleges stand out for several reasons:  450,000 technicians (levels 3 and 4)

Employers are involved in all aspects of the UTC curriculum. They choose the technical subjects, shape the timetable, devise and deliver real-world projects and serve as governors.

Universities, too, play a significant role. UTC students know that higher education is within

their reach. Some go directly to university when they leave. Others choose the apprenticeship route and enter higher education later, often sponsored by their employers.

UTCs help every student find employment, education or training.

The aim is simple: no NEETs!

In short, UTCs build the knowledge, skills and temperament employers tell us they need.

1 Harrison M (2012), Jobs and Growth: The Importance of Engineering Skills to the UK Economy. Royal Academy of Engineering

But there are still very many jobs in the middle ground, as shown in Figure 2 – which scarcely The future of the labour market resembles an hourglass. But there are still very many jobs in the middle ground, as shown in Figure 2 – which scarcely The future of the labour market 5 Table 2: numbers needed by broad occupation, 2010-20 An hourglass economy? Figureresembles 2: Employment an hourglass. by broad occupation, 2010 An hourglass economy?The labour market has changed massively over the last thirty years. Growth/decline Replacement demand Total requirement 5 DemandThe labour for marketboth skilled has changed and unskilled massively manual over workers the last fe thirtyll when years. mines, Figure 2: Employment by broad occupation, 2010 Managers 544,000 1,306,000 1,850,000 Managers, directors, senior officials: 3.0m dockyardsDemand for and both steel skilled mills closedand unskilled and robots manual replaced workers factory fell wh workersen mines,. Professional occupations 869,000 2,315,000 3,184,000

Meanwhile,dockyards and demand steel formills graduates closed and rose robots as we replaced developed factory a knowledge workers.- Associate professional/technical 551,000 1,450,000 2,000,000 Managers,Professional directors, occupations: senior officials:5.8m 3.0m basedMeanwhile, economy. demand So did for demand graduates for shoprose asassistants, we developed waiters a ,knowledge other service- Administrative/secretarial -387,000 1,695,000 1,309,000 Skilled trades -230,000 1,383,000 1,153,000 industrybased economy. jobs and –So thanks did demand to an ageing for shop population assistants, – carewaiters assistants., other service AssociateProfessional professional: occupations: 3.9m 5.8m Caring, leisure and other service 313,000 1,144,000 1,457,000 industry jobs and – thanks to an ageing population – care assistants. This has led many people to describe today’s labour market as an Sales and customer service 2,000 938,000 939,000 hourglass. The University AllianceThis has puts led many it this people way: to describe today’s labour market as an AdminAssociate and secretarial: professional: 3.7m 3.9m Process, plant, machine operatives -213,000 845,000 633,000 Elementary occupations 101,000 1,243,000 1,344,000 hourglass. The University Alliance puts it this way: Since the early 1990s sustained growth in high AdminSkilled and trades: secretarial: 3.5m 3.7m Source: The UK Commission for Employment and Skills7 wage,Since analytical,the early 1990s non-routine sustained jobs; growth an expansion in high The idea that there is this complete 8 ofwage, manual, analytical, lower wage non-routine jobs; and jobs; a contraction an expansion of hourglassThe idea that theremeans is there this complete are no Caring, leisure,Skilled other trades: service: 3.5m 2.7m Figure 3: requirement for new recruits, 2010-20 routine,of manual, middle lower-wage wage jobs jobs; has and led ato contraction a ‘hollowing of jobshourglass that people that means can aspire there to are and no out’routine, of the middle labour-wage market jobs in hasdeveloped led to a ‘hollowing getjobs is thatnot true. people They can simply aspire are to andnot Sales,Caring, customer leisure, otherservice: service: 2.6m 2.7m Total Requirement, 2010-20 economies.out’ of the Thislabour creates market an in hourglass developed-shaped beingget is prepared not true. properlyThey simply in order are not to 3 laboureconomies. market. This creates an hourglass-shaped getbeing them, prepared and they properly are not in aware order to Process,Sales, customer machines: service: 1.9m 2.6m labour market.3 thatget theythem, are and there they or are what not they aware The image of an hourglass suggests that the modern Managers needthat tothey do arein order there to or get what there. they Process,Elementary: machines: 3.2m 1.9m economyThe image is broadlyof an hourglass divided suggestsbetween that high the-paid, modern high-skill Professional need to do in order to get there. jobseconomy at the istop broadly and low divided-pay, lowbetween-skill jobs high at-paid, the bottom,high-skill Graham Stuart MP, Chair of the Elementary: 3.2m Associate professional withjobs hardly at the anytop inand between. low-pay, low-skill jobs at the bottom, HouseGraham of CommonsStuart MP, Education Chair of the Retirement Administrative with hardly any in between. CommitteeHouse of Commons Education It is true that many jobs in the middle of the pay range In debates about the hourglass economy, there’s one trend that gets remarkably little attention, Skilled trades Committee haveIt is trueall but that disappeared. many jobs inHere the aremiddle some of examples the pay range of the Oral evidence: Underachievement in education of despiteRetirement its huge importance : retirement. Caring/leisure/service white working class children, HC 727, 29 January fall in job numbers over 20 years4: Oral evidence: Underachievement in education of In debates about the hourglass economy, there’s one trend that gets remarkably little attention, have all but disappeared. Here are some examples of the 2014 There was a sharp spike in the birth rate following the mass demobilisation of our armed forces in Sales/customer service 4 white working class children, HC 727, 29 January despite its huge importance: retirement. fall in job numbers over 20 years : 2014  boring and drilling machine setters: 94% 1946-47. As a result, the number of people reaching the age of 65 leapt by 30% between 2011 and Process, plant, machine There6 was a sharp spike in the birth rate following the mass demobilisation of our armed forces in  faceborin-trainedg and drillingcoal miners machine: 93% setters: 94% 2012 . Birth rates fell back in the 1950s before rising to another peak in 1965. Elementary 1946-47. As a result, the number of people reaching the age of 65 leapt by 30% between 2011 and  grindingface-trained machine coal settersminers :and 93% operators : 86% Thanks2012 to6. Birthchanges rates in felllegislation, back in thesome 1950s people before born rising in this to periodanother will peak stay in on 1965. in employment beyond  grinding machine setters and operators: 86% 65. Others will opt for part-time work. Nevertheless, we are about to lose skills and experience on an However, this does not tell the whole story. For a start, there is no evidence that wages at the top unprecedentedThanks to changes scale. inIn legislation,fact, replacing some people people is theborn biggest in this challenge period will we stay face. on in employment beyond andHowever, bottom this of thedoes labour not tell market the whole spectrum story. have For risena start, faster there than is no wages evidence in the that middle, wages which at the is topwhat In other words, labour market demand is more evenly distributed than most people probably realise. 65. Others will opt for part-time work. Nevertheless, we are about to lose skills and experience on an mightand bottom be expected of the in labour an hourglass market spectrumeconomy. haveFor another risen faster, some than jobs wages have inmoved the middle, up or down which the is what In the present decade, more than one in five of all opportunities – three million – will be in Tableunprecedented 1 is based on scale. forecasts In fact, published replacing by peoplethe UK isCommission the biggest for challenge Employment we face. and Skills for the paymight scale be and expected are now in anfirmly hourglass in the middleeconomy ground.. For another Third, the, some loss jobs of some have j obsmoved has upbeen or downoffset theby period 2010-2020. These show that upward and downward trends are dwarfed by the number of professional occupations. But there will also be two million opportunities for people with level 4 thepay creation scale and of areothers: now shorthand firmly in the secretaries middle ground. have been Third replaced, the loss by of personal some jobs assistants has been and offset by newTable recruits 1 is basedneeded on to forecasts replace peoplepublished leaving by the employment. UK Commission for Employment and Skills for the technical skills and another million for people in the skilled trades. administratorsthe creation of, forothers: example. shorthand And t hensecretaries there are have jobs been that replaced hadn’t even by personal been invented assistants 20 or and 30 years period 2010-2020. These show that upward and downward trends are dwarfed by the number of We’re not talking about the forgotten few: these are the forgotten many. ago,administrators such as social, for media example. manager, And t henapp theredeveloper are jobs and that data hadn’t miner. even been invented 20 or 30 years new recruits needed to replace people leaving employment. ago, such as social media manager, app developer and data miner.

3 5 Kackett L, Shutt L and Madachlan N (2012), The Way We’ll Work: Labour Market Trends and Preparing for the Taken from table 4.1 in Wilson RA and Homenidou K (2011), Working Futures 2010-20: Main Report. UKCES 6 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/9563647/Record-numbers-reach-retirement- Hourglass.3 Kackett L,London: Shutt L Universityand Madachlan Alliance N (2012), The Way We’ll Work: Labour Market Trends and Preparing for the 4 McIntosh S (2013), Hollowing out and the future of the labour market, Department for Business, Innovation age5-as-baby-boomers-turn-65.html Hourglass. London: University Alliance Taken from table 4.1 in Wilson RA and Homenidou K (2011), Working Futures 2010-20: Main Report. UKCES and4 McIntosh Skills Research S (2013), Paper Hollowing 134 out and the future of the labour market, Department for Business, Innovation 6 7 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/9563647/Record-numbers-reach-retirement - 7 Wilson, R. and Homenidou, K. (2012). Working Futures 2010-2020. UKCES Evidence Report 41 and Skills Research Paper 134 age- as-baby-boomers-turn-65.html 8 ibid

Education: the skills mismatch starts early TheEducation: Education and the Employers skills mismatchTaskforce recently starts compared early young people’s career aspirations with Higher education: the mismatch continues 13 Our training and education system responds well to demand from individuals. By and large, further theThe labour Education market’s and Employers current and Taskforce future needs recently. They compared found anyoung enormous people’s mismatch. career aspirations with and higher education is geared to what students ask for; and as we shall see in this section, this the labour market’s current and future needs13. They found an enormous mismatch. Interest in some careers far outweighs the number of vacancies on offer. Among 13-14 year olds, responsiveness has translated into remarkable growth in the number of people going on to higher moreInterest than in asome quarter careers - 27% far - saidoutweighs they would the number like jobs of in vacancies culture, mediaon offer. or sport,Among whereas 13-14 year these olds, education. sectorsmore than combined a quarter will - provide27% - said only they 2% would of all vacancies like jobs in between culture, 2010media and or 2sport,020. whereas these That would be fine if students were able to make fully- Even a robust economic recovery sectors combined will provide only 2% of all vacancies between 2010 and 2020. At the opposite end of the spectrum, no 11-12 year olds – zero percent – expressed interest in a informed choices. But they’re not. They do not know how should not mask the need for careerAt the inopposite manufacturing, end of the even spectrum, though nothe 11 sector-12 year provides olds – over zero 10%percent of all – expressedjobs in the interestUK economy. in a many jobs there are in each sector of the economy, how changes in how Europe develops and career in manufacturing, even though the sector provides over 10% of all jobs in the UK economy. things are changing, or whether a particular course will uses skills. No matter how well the This is partly a failure of careers education. Children know about the jobs they see in their daily lives, lead to sustained employment. economy performs, people need the whetherThis is partly at school, a failure in theof careers high street education. or on television. Children know They about the jobs they see in their daily lives, ‘right’ skills to enter and stay in the dowhether not know at school, about thein the myriad high streetjobs done or on on television. office parks They Concerns have also been expressed Those who make the case for the knowledge economy labour market. anddo not industrial know about estates. the We myriad need jobs to open done up on opportunities office parks aboutConcerns the havepractical also contentbeen expressed of the would say that it doesn’t really matter, particularly for for them to find out about a whole variety of careers, science curriculum. The Gatsby graduates. They argue that all degrees develop higher European Centre for the Development of and industrial estates. We need to open up opportunities about the practical content of the Vocational Training (CEDEFOP), Roads to recovery: startingfor them in to primary find out school. about a whole variety of careers, Charitablescience curriculum. Foundation The said: Gatsby order thinking skills which – given the fluidity of the labour three skill and labour market scenarios for 2025 starting in primary school. Charitable Foundation said: market – matters more than the subject studied at But we should be just as concerned about the school There has been a steady university. In short, any degree is a passport to success. curriculum.But we should There be isjust too as little concerned learning about by doing. the school erosionThere has of thebeen teaching a steady of curriculum. There is too little learning by doing. laboratoryerosion of theskills. teaching This erosion of is Sadly, that is no longer true. When I introduced the National Curriculum, I was proud to alaboratory cause of significant skills. This concernerosion is includeWhen I Designintroduced and Technologythe National alongside Curriculum, mor I ewas traditional proud to toa causeindustry of significantand higher concern The growth in higher education subjectsinclude Design such as and maths Technology and science. alongside I was convincedmore traditional young educationto industry institutions. and higher As Secretary of State for Education, I actively promoted the expansion of higher education in this peoplesubjects would such benefitas maths from and learning science. aboutI was convincedthe “made young education institutions. country. I was convinced that we would need many more graduates if we were to keep pace with world”.people wouldI was equally benefit convinced from learning that aboutthe subject the “made should Ofsted backed this up in a 2013 our international competitors and build the wealth of the nation. includeworld”. handsI was -equallyon learning: convinced design thating theand subjectmaking shouldtangible reportOfsted on backed science this in up schools: in a 2013 objectsinclude andhands learning-on learning: to use designa varietying of and tools, making machines tangible report on science in schools: At the start of the 1980s, one in eight 18-year-olds went into higher education. By 1990, it was one Too many school leavers are andobjects materials. and learning to use a variety of tools, machines in five. not well-enough equipped and materials. Too many school leavers are Since then, however: scientificallynot well-enough with equipped practical, In 1999, the Higher Education Careers Service Unit (HECSU) published the outcomes of a large-scale 18 Since then, however: investigativescientifically withand analytical practical, study of people who graduated from university in 1995 . Back then – nearly 20 years ago – the The development of D & T in the UK has seen a skills.investigative and analytical future looked rosy for almost all new graduates. By late 1997, 30 months after graduating: moveThe development away from a of skills D &-focused T in the curriculumUK has seen to a a 14 skills. knowledgemove away-focused from a skills one.-focused curriculum to a The Gatsby Charitable Foundation, written … only 2 per cent of economically active graduates [were] unemployed and less than 10 per evidence to House of Commons Science and 14 cent of graduates [were] in a non-graduate occupation. Most graduates move[d] into work knowledge-focused one. TechnologyThe Gatsby CommitteeCharitable Foundation (Sch Sci 23),, written2011 Many schools offer a so-called carousel, in which students evidence to House of Commons Science and with relative ease and most graduates [found] work in traditional graduate or graduate track Technology Committee (Sch Sci 23), 2011 spendMany blocksschools of offer eight a weeksso-called studying carousel, food in technology,which students Ofsted, Maintaining curiosity: a survey into occupations. science education in schools, 2013 textiles,spend blocks graphic of designeight weeks and so studying on. This food leaves technology, little time to Ofsted, Maintaining curiosity: a survey into gettextiles, to grips graphic with designany of theand areas so on. of This study; leaves little little time time to to science education in schools, 2013 Research also showed that on average, graduates earned more than people with lower levels of 19 thinkget to deeply grips with about any designing, of the areas making of study; and evaluating little time tangibleto products. qualification . think deeply about designing, making and evaluating tangible products. There seemed no reason to hold back. Evidence of graduate success and a belief in the knowledge economy created an almost unchallenged belief that the only way was up.

13 Education and Employers Taskforce (2013), Nothing in common: The career aspirations of young Britons mapped against projected labour market demand (2010-2020) 18 Elias, P., K. Purcell, A. McKnight and J. Pitcher (1999). Moving On: graduate careers three years after 13 Education and Employers Taskforce (2013), Nothing in common: The career aspirations of young Britons 14 Martin M and Owen-Jackson G, “Is design and technology about making or knowing?” in Owen-Jackson G graduation. Manchester: Higher Education Careers Services Unit mapped against projected labour market demand (2010-2020) (ed) (2013), Debates in Design and Technology Education, edited by Gwyneth. Abingdon: Routledge 19 See, for example, Walker I and Zhu Y (2013), The Impact of University Degrees on the Lifecycle of Earnings, 14 Martin M and Owen-Jackson G, “Is design and technology about making or knowing?” in Owen-Jackson G BIS Research Paper 112. (ed) (2013), Debates in Design and Technology Education, edited by Gwyneth. Abingdon: Routledge

1 Harrison M (2012), Jobs and Growth: The Importance of Engineering Skills to the UK Economy. Royal Academy of Engineering

Table 2: numbers needed by broad occupation, 2010-20 But there are still very many jobs in the middle ground, as shown in Figure 2 – which scarcely Growth/decline Replacement demand Total requirement resembles an hourglass. Skills shortages are already getting worse… Managers 544,000 1,306,000 1,850,000 But there are still very many jobs in the middle ground, as shown in Figure 2 – which scarcely Professional occupations 869,000 2,315,000 3,184,000 TheSkil UK lsCommission shortages for Employment are already and Skills getting regularly worse surveys… employers to gauge trends in the Figure 2: Employment by broad occupation, 20105 Table 2: numbers needed by broad occupation, 2010-20 resembles an hourglass. Associate professional/technical 551,000 1,450,000 2,000,000 labourThe UK market. Commission The most for recent Employment Employer and Skills Skills Survey regularly shows surveys that employersjob vacancies to gaugeare returning trends into the Administrative/secretarial Growth/decline-387,000 Replacement demand1,695,000 Total requirement1,309,000 labour market. The most recent Employer Skills Survey shows that job vacancies are returning to Figure 2: Employment by broad occupation, 20105 pre-recession levels; good news. ManagSkilleders trades 544,000-230,000 1,306,0001,383,000 1,850,0001,153,000 pre-recession levels; good news. Managers, directors, senior officials: 3.0m ProfessionalCaring, leisure occupations and other service 869,000313,000 2,315,1,144,000000 3,184,0001,457,000 However, many employers find it hard to recruit people with the right skills. This is particularly true AssociateSales and professional/technical customer service 551,0002,000 1,450,000938,000 2,000,000939,000 in However,manufacturing, many whereemployers skills find shortages it hard affectto recruit as many people as withthree the in tenright vacancies skills. This (30%). is particularly Agriculture true Managers,Professional directors, occupations: senior officials:5.8m 3.0m Administrative/Process, plant,secretarial machine operatives -387,000-213,000 1,695,000845,000 1,309,000633,000 andin businessmanufacturing, services where are not skills far shortages behind – 28%affect of as vacancies many as are three affected in ten byvacancies skills shortages (30%). Agriculture – Skilled trades -230,000 1,383,000 1,153,000 Elementary occupations 101,000 1,243,000 1,344,000 followedand business by transport services and are communications not far behind – (26%), 28% of community, vacancies are social affected and personal by skills servicesshortages (24%), – AssociateProfessional professional: occupations: 3.9m 5.8m Caring, leisure and other service 313,000 1,144,000 1,457,000 Source: The UK Commission for Employment and Skills7 electricity,followed gasby transport and water and (23%) communications and construction (26%), (23%). community, Sub-sectors social of industryand personal also faceservices enormous (24%), Sales and customer service 2,000 938,000 939,000 growthelectricity, in demand, gas and such water as tunnelling(23%) and andconstruction aerospace. (23%). Sub-sectors of industry also face enormous AdminAssociate and secretarial: professional: 3.7m 3.9m Process, plant, machine operatives -213,0008 845,000 633,000 Figure 3: requirement for new recruits, 2010-20 growth in demand, such as tunnelling and aerospace. Elementary occupations 101,000 1,243,000 1,344,000 While shortages are reported for degree level jobs, the biggest problem reported by employers is AdminSkilled and trades: secretarial: 3.5m 3.7m Source: The UK Commission for Employment and Skills7 fillingWhile vacancies shortages in skilledare reported trades ,for such degree as electricians level jobs, and the chefs.biggest problem reported by employers is Total Requirement, 2010-20 filling vacancies in skilled trades, such as electricians and chefs. 8 Caring, leisure,Skilled other trades: service: 3.5m 2.7m Figure 3: requirement for new recruits, 2010-20 Table 3: % of vacancies caused by skills shortages, 20139 9 Table 3: % of vacancies caused by skills shortages, 2013 % of vacancies caused Sales,Caring, customer leisure, otherservice: service: 2.6m 2.7m Managers Total Requirement, 2010-20 %by of skills vacancies shortages caused Professional Managers by skills20% shortages

Process,Sales, customer machines: service: 1.9m 2.6m Associate professional ProfessionalManagers occupations 30%20% Professional occupations 30% ManagersAdministrative Associate professional/technical 26% Process,Elementary: machines: 3.2m 1.9m Administrative/secretarialAssociate professional/technical 13%26% ProfessionalSkilled trades SkilledAdministrative/secretarial trades 39%13%

Elementary: 3.2m AssociateCaring/leisure/service professional Caring,Skilled leisure trades and other service 27%39% SalesCaring, and leisurecustomer and service other service 13%27% Retirement AdministrativeSales/customer service Sales and customer service 13% In debates about the hourglass economy, there’s one trend that gets remarkably little attention, Process, plant, machine operatives 25% SkilledProcess, trades plant, machine Process, plant, machine operatives 25% Retirement Elementary occupations 13% despite its huge importance: retirement. Caring/leisure/serviceElementary Elementary occupations 13% In debates about the hourglass economy, there’s one trend that gets remarkably little attention, Skilled trades shortages are particularly affecting the manufacturing, hotel and restaurant, There was a sharp spike in the birth rate following the mass demobilisation of our armed forces in Sales/customer service despite its huge importance: retirement. wholesale/retailSkilled trades shortages and business are particularlyservices sectors. affecting the manufacturing, hotel and restaurant, 1946-47. As a result, the number of people reaching the age of 65 leapt by 30% between 2011 and Process, plant, machine wholesale/retail and business services sectors. 2012There6. Birth was rates a sharp fell backspike inin the the 1950sbirth rate before following rising to the another mass demobilisation peak in 1965. of our armed forces in In other words, labour market demand is more evenly distributed thanElementary most people probably realise. …while youth unemployment remains a serious challenge 1946-47. As a result, the number of people reaching the age of 65 leapt by 30% between 2011 and In …thewhile UK, the youth employment unemployment prospects of young remains people a have serious been gettingchallenge gradually worse over Thanks to6 changes in legislation, some people born in this period will stay on in employment beyond In the present decade, more than one in five of all opportunities – three million – will be in 2012 . Birth rates fell back in the 1950s before rising to another peak in 1965. recentIn the years. UK, the Figure employment 3 compares prospects the employment of young peoplerates of have 16-14 been year getting olds who gradually have completed worse over their 65. Others will opt for part-time work. Nevertheless, we are about to lose skills and experience on an professional occupations. But there will also be two million opportunities for people with level 4 educationrecent years. with Figurethe employment 3 compares rates the ofemployment people aged rates 25- 64.of 16 The-14 figures year olds are whofrom have the October completed- their unprecedentedThanks to changes scale. inIn legislation,fact, replacing some people people is theborn biggest in this challenge period will we stay face. on in employment beyond technical skills and another million for people in the skilled trades. In other words, labour market demand is more evenly distributed than most people probably realise. education with the employment rates of people aged 25-64. The figures are from the October- 65. Others will opt for part-time work. Nevertheless, we are about to lose skills and experience on an December Labour Force Survey. Table 1 is based on forecasts published by the UK Commission for Employment and Skills for the In theWe’re present not decade, talking more about than onethe in forgotten five of all opportunities few: these – arethree the million forgotten – will be inmany. December Labour Force Survey. unprecedented scale. In fact, replacing people is the biggest challenge we face. period 2010-2020. These show that upward and downward trends are dwarfed by the number of professional occupations. But there will also be two million opportunities for people with level 4 technical skills and another million for people in the skilled trades. newTable recruits 1 is basedneeded on to forecasts replace peoplepublished leaving by the employment. UK Commission for Employment and Skills for the period 2010-2020. These show that upward and downward trends are dwarfed by the number of We’re not talking about the forgotten few: these are the forgotten many. new recruits needed to replace people leaving employment.

7 5 Wilson, R. and Homenidou, K. (2012). Working Futures 2010-2020. UKCES Evidence Report 41 Taken from table 4.1 in Wilson RA and Homenidou K (2011), Working Futures 2010-20: Main Report. UKCES 8 6 ibid http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/9563647/Record -numbers-reach-retirement- age-as-baby-boomers-turn-65.html 9 5 Taken from table 4.1 in Wilson RA and Homenidou K (2011), Working Futures 2010-20: Main Report. UKCES Winterbotham M, Vivian D, Shury J, Davies B and Kik G (2014) The UK Commission’s Employer Skills Survey 9 6 2013: Winterbotham UK Results. M, Vivian D, Shury J, Davies B and Kik G (2014) The UK Commission’s Employer Skills Survey http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/9563647/Record-numbers-reach-retirement- 7 8 Wilson, R. and Homenidou, K. (2012). Working Futures 2010-2020. UKCES Evidence Report 41 2013: UK Results. age-as-baby-boomers-turn-65.html 8 ibid

Higher education: the mismatch continues ByBy thethe timetime ofof thethe 20012001 generalgeneral election,election, TonyTony BlairBlair waswas convincedconvinced wewe neededneeded thethe boldestboldest targettarget Our training and education system responds well to demand from individuals. By and large, further yetyet:: and higher education is geared to what students ask for; and as we shall see in this section, this responsiveness has translated into remarkable growth in the number of people going on to higher ItIt isis timetime forfor anan historichistoric commitmentcommitment toto openopen higherhigher educationeducation toto halfhalf ofof allall yyoungoung peoplepeople 20 education. beforebefore theythey areare 30.30.20

That would be fine if students were able to make fully- Even a robust economic recovery PoliciesPolicies asas ambitiousambitious asas thisthis frequentlyfrequently fail.fail. ManManyy peoplepeople thoughtthought thisthis oneone would:would: should not mask the need for informed choices. But they’re not. They do not know how 21 50% higher education target doomed, says thinktank (Guardian, 14 July 2005 21) many jobs there are in each sector of the economy, how changes in how Europe develops and 50% higher education target doomed, says thinktank (Guardian, 14 July 2005 ) things are changing, or whether a particular course will uses skills. No matter how well the 22 DespiteDespite thethe gloomygloomy prognostications,prognostications, however,however, participationparticipation reareachedched 49.3%49.3% inin 2011/122011/1222.. AccordingAccording lead to sustained employment. economy performs, people need the toto thethe OECD,OECD, moremore peoplepeople underunder 3030 achieveachieve firstfirst degreesdegrees inin thethe UKUK thanthan inin anyany otherother countrycountry inin thethe ‘right’ skills to enter and stay in the 23 world,world, withwith thethe solesole exceptionexception ofof PolandPoland23.. Those who make the case for the knowledge economy labour market. would say that it doesn’t really matter, particularly for OnOn thethe faceface ofof it,it, thethe policypolicy hashas beenbeen aa remarkableremarkable success.success. HoweverHowever,, thethe expaexpansionnsion ofof higherhigher graduates. They argue that all degrees develop higher European Centre for the Development of education has been uneven, to say the least. Between 2002 and 2012, the number of first degrees Vocational Training (CEDEFOP), Roads to recovery: education has been uneven, to say the least. Between 2002 and 2012, the number of first degrees order thinking skills which – given the fluidity of the labour three skill and labour market scenarios for 2025 awardedawarded grewgrew moremore thanthan 80%80% inin somesome disciplines,disciplines, butbut byby lessless thanthan aa quarterquarter inin othersothers –– seesee figurefigure 77.. market – matters more than the subject studied at university. In short, any degree is a passport to success. FigureFigure 77:: percentagepercentage increaseincrease inin firstfirst degrdegreesees (selected(selected disciplines),disciplines), 20002000--0101 toto 20112011--1212

Sadly, that is no longer true. %% changechange The growth in higher education Physical sciences As Secretary of State for Education, I actively promoted the expansion of higher education in this Physical sciences Engineering and technology Engineering and technology country. I was convinced that we would need many more graduates if we were to keep pace with Computer science Computer science our international competitors and build the wealth of the nation. All first degrees All first degrees Social, economic & political studies Social, economic & political studies At the start of the 1980s, one in eight 18-year-olds went into higher education. By 1990, it was one Law Law in five. Humanities Humanities Business and administrative studies Business and administrative studies In 1999, the Higher Education Careers Service Unit (HECSU) published the outcomes of a large-scale Biological sciences 18 Biological sciences study of people who graduated from university in 1995 . Back then – nearly 20 years ago – the Subjects allied to medicine Subjects allied to medicine Mass communication & documentation future looked rosy for almost all new graduates. By late 1997, 30 months after graduating: Mass communication & documentation 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 … only 2 per cent of economically active graduates [were] unemployed and less than 10 per 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

cent of graduates [were] in a non-graduate occupation. Most graduates move[d] into work with relative ease and most graduates [found] work in traditional graduate or graduate track DelvingDelving aa littlelittle deeperdeeper intointo somesome ofof thesethese broadbroad subjectsubject areas,areas, nearlynearly twotwo thirdsthirds (62%)(62%) ofof degreesdegrees occupations. awardedawarded inin massmass communicationscommunications andand documentationdocumentation werewere forfor mediamedia studies.studies. NursingNursing accountsaccounts forfor 49%49% ofof degreesdegrees inin thethe categorycategory “subjects“subjects alliedallied toto medicine”.medicine”. InIn thethe biologicalbiological sciences,sciences, onlyonly 14%14% ofof Research also showed that on average, graduates earned more than people with lower levels of firstfirst degreesdegrees werewere forfor biolbiologyogy purepure andand simple,simple, aa figurefigure dwarfeddwarfed byby psychologypsychology (41%)(41%) andand sportssports qualification19. sciencescience (27%).(27%). There seemed no reason to hold back. Evidence of graduate success and a belief in the knowledge

20 2001 Labour Party General Election Manifesto, Ambitions for Britain, economy created an almost unchallenged belief that the only way was up. 20 2001 Labour Party General Election Manifesto, Ambitions for Britain, http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/e01/man/lab/lab01.htm Accessed 24 August 2013 http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/e01/man/lab/lab01.htm Accessed 24 August 2013 21 http://www.theguardian.com/education/2005/jul/14/highereducation.accesstouniversity Accessed 24 21 http://www.theguardian.com/education/2005/jul/14/highereducation.accesstouniversity Accessed 24 August 2013 18 August 2013 Elias, P., K. Purcell, A. McKnight and J. Pitcher (1999). Moving On: graduate careers three years after 22 Department for Business, Innovation & Skills and Office for National Statistics, Participation Rates in Higher 22 Department for Business, Innovation & Skills and Office for National Statistics, Participation Rates in Higher graduation. Manchester: Higher Education Careers Services Unit Education: Academic Years 2006/07 – 2011/12 (Provisional), 24 April 2013 19 Education: Academic Years 2006/07 – 2011/12 (Provisional), 24 April 2013 See, for example, Walker I and Zhu Y (2013), The Impact of University Degrees on the Lifecycle of Earnings, 23 OECD (2013), Education at a Glance 2013: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing. 23 OECD (2013), Education at a Glance 2013: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing. BIS Research Paper 112. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eag-2013-en http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eag-2013-en

primary and secondary schools, leading to new pathways at 14.

Table 2: numbers needed by broad occupation, 2010-20

Growth/decline Replacement demand Total requirement Skills shortages are already getting worse… Figure 4: employment rates over time, 16-24 year-olds who have completed education, compared Managers 544,000 1,306,000 1,850,000 Skills shortages are already getting worse… 10 TableProfessional 2: numbers occupations needed by broad occupation, 2010869,000-20 2,315,000 3,184,000 The UK Commission for Employment and Skills regularly surveys employers to gauge trends in the with 25-64 year olds Associate professional/technical 551,000 1,450,000 2,000,000 labourThe UK market. Commission The most for recent Employment Employer and Skills Skills Survey regularly shows surveys that employersjob vacancies to gaugeare returning trends into the Administrative/secretarial Growth/decline-387,000 Replacement demand1,695,000 Total requirement1,309,000 prelabour-recession market. levels; The goo mostd news. recent Employer Skills Survey shows that job vacancies are returning to 78 ManagSkilleders trades 544,000-230,000 1,306,0001,383,000 1,850,0001,153,000 pre-recession levels; good news. 76 ProfessionalCaring, leisure occupations and other service 869,000313,000 2,315,1,144,000000 3,184,0001,457,000 However, many employers find it hard to recruit people with the right skills. This is particularly true AssociateSales and professional/technical customer service 551,0002,000 1,450,000938,000 2,000,000939,000 in However,manufacturing, many whereemployers skills find shortages it hard affectto recruit as many people as withthree the in tenright vacancies skills. This (30%). is particularly Agriculture true 74 Administrative/Process, plant,secretarial machine operatives -387,000-213,000 1,695,000845,000 1,309,000633,000 andin businessmanufacturing, services where are not skills far shortages behind – 28%affect of as vacancies many as are three affected in ten byvacancies skills shortages (30%). Agriculture – 72 SkilledElementary trades occupations -230,000101,000 1,383,0001,243,000 1,153,0001,344,000 and business services are not far behind – 28% of vacancies are affected by skills shortages – followed by transport and communications (26%), community, social and personal services (24%), 70 Caring, leisure and other service 313,000 1,144,000 1,457,000 16-24 employment rate 7 followed by transport and communications (26%), community, social and personal services (24%), (%) Source: The UK Commission for Employment and Skills electricity, gas and water (23%) and construction (23%). Sub-sectors of industry also face enormous 68 Sales and customer service 2,000 938,000 939,000 electricity, gas and water (23%) and construction (23%). Sub-sectors of industry also face enormous growth in demand, such as tunnelling and aerospace. 25-64 employment rate Process, plant, machine operatives -213,0008 845,000 633,000 Figure 3: requirement for new recruits, 2010-20 growth in demand, such as tunnelling and aerospace. 66 Elementary occupations 101,000 1,243,000 1,344,000 (%) While shortages are reported for degree level jobs, the biggest problem reported by employers is 64 Source: The UK Commission for Employment and Skills7 While shortages are reported for degree level jobs, the biggest problem reported by employers is filling vacancies in skilled trades, such as electricians and chefs. 62 Total Requirement, 2010-20 filling vacancies in skilled trades, such as electricians and chefs. Figure 3: requirement for new recruits, 2010-208 Table 3: % of vacancies caused by skills shortages, 20139 60 Table 3: % of vacancies caused by skills shortages, 20139 Managers % of vacancies caused Total Requirement, 2010-20 %by of skills vacancies shortages caused Professional Managers by skills20% shortages The UK is not unique in facing high rates of youth unemployment. However, some countries seem to Associate professional ProfessionalManagers occupations 30%20% manage the transition from education to work very much better than we do. One crucial reason is Professional occupations 30% ManagersAdministrative Associate professional/technical 26% their commitment to technical and vocational education. Administrative/secretarialAssociate professional/technical 13%26% ProfessionalSkilled trades SkilledAdministrative/secretarial trades 39%13% Figure 5 compares male participation in the vocational stream of upper secondary education and the AssociateCaring/leisure/service professional Caring,Skilled leisure trades and other service 27%39% percentage of men aged 18-24 classed as not in education, employment or training (NEET) in 2011. AdministrativeSales/customer service SalesCaring, and leisurecustomer and service other service 13%27% Process,Sales and plant, customer machine service operatives 25%13% Figure 5: enrolment in vocational upper secondary education and youth unemployment11 SkilledProcess, trades plant, machine ElementaryProcess, plant, occupations machine operatives 13%25% Caring/leisure/serviceElementary Elementary occupations 13% 90 Sales/customer service Skilled trades shortages are particularly affecting the manufacturing, hotel and restaurant, 80 wholesale/retailSkilled trades shortages and business are particularlyservices sectors. affecting the manufacturing, hotel and restaurant, 70 Process, plant, machine 60 wholesale/retail and business services sectors. 50 In other words, labour market demand is more evenly distributed thanElementary most people probably realise. …while youth unemployment remains a serious challenge 40 …while youth unemployment remains a serious challenge 30 In the present decade, more than one in five of all opportunities – three million – will be in In the UK, the employment prospects of young people have been getting gradually worse over 20 In the UK, the employment prospects of young people have been getting gradually worse over professional occupations. But there will also be two million opportunities for people with level 4 recent years. Figure 3 compares the employment rates of 16-14 year olds who have completed their 10 recent years. Figure 3 compares the employment rates of 16-14 year olds who have completed their 0 technical skills and another million for people in the skilled trades. education with the employment rates of people aged 25-64. The figures are from the October- In other words, labour market demand is more evenly distributed than most people probably realise. Decembereducation Labour with the Force employment Survey. rates of people aged 25-64. The figures are from the October- In theWe’re present not decade, talking more about than onethe in forgotten five of all opportunities few: these – arethree the million forgotten – will be inmany. December Labour Force Survey. professional occupations. But there will also be two million opportunities for people with level 4 technical skills and another million for people in the skilled trades.

Participation in VET (%) NEET 18-24 (%) We’re not talking about the forgotten few: these are the forgotten many. Linear (Participation in VET (%)) Linear (NEET 18-24 (%))

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/refreshTableAction.do?tab=table&plugin=0&pcode=tps00055&languag 9 Winterbotham M, Vivian D, Shury J, Davies B and Kik G (2014) The UK Commission’s Employer Skills Survey e=en NEET data: http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/submitViewTableAction.do Accessed 21 January 2013:9 Winterbotham UK Results. M, Vivian D, Shury J, Davies B and Kik G (2014) The UK Commission’s Employer Skills Survey 9 7 2014 Wilson, R. and Homenidou, K. (2012). Working Futures 2010-2020. UKCES Evidence Report 41 2013: UK Results. 8 ibid

Above all, it is striking that engineering, technology, computer science and physical sciences all grew Higher education: the mismatch continues By the time of the 2001 general election, Tony Blair was convinced we needed the boldest target By the time of the 2001 general election, Tony Blair was convinced we needed the boldest target by less than a quarter when the growth rate for all first degrees was 60%. Our training and education system responds well to demand from individuals. By and large, further yetyet:: and higher education is geared to what students ask for; and as we shall see in this section, this A future less rosy responsiveness has translated into remarkable growth in the number of people going on to higher ItIt isis timetime forfor anan historichistoric commitmentcommitment toto openopen higherhigher educationeducation toto halfhalf ofof allall yyoungoung peoplepeople 20 In the introduction to this report, I quoted Royal Academy education. before they are 30. 20 before they are 30. of Engineering research: there is a dramatic shortfall in the Other countries face a similar number of science, engineering and technology graduates That would be fine if students were able to make fully- Even a robust economic recovery PoliciesPolicies asas ambitiousambitious asas thisthis frequentlyfrequently fail.fail. ManManyy peoplepeople thoughtthought thisthis oneone would:would: challenge should not mask the need for entering UK employment. Looking at trends over the last informed choices. But they’re not. They do not know how 21 50% higher education target doomed, says thinktank (Guardian, 14 July 2005 21) The thought that a university degree many jobs there are in each sector of the economy, how changes in how Europe develops and 50% higher education target doomed, says thinktank (Guardian, 14 July 2005 ) decade, we start to understand why and how this has is the ticket to instant career success things are changing, or whether a particular course will uses skills. No matter how well the 22 happened. DespiteDespite thethe gloomygloomy prognostications,prognostications, however,however, participationparticipation reareachedched 49.3%49.3% inin 2011/122011/1222.. AccordingAccording is creating a backlash in Canada. We lead to sustained employment. economy performs, people need the to the OECD, more people under 30 achieve first degrees in the UK than in any other country in the to the OECD, more people under 30 achieve first degrees in the UK than in any other country in the Furthermore, it is no longer easy for graduates to find have more BAs than the market will ‘right’ skills to enter and stay in the 23 world,world, withwith thethe solesole exceptionexception ofof PolandPoland23.. good jobs, particularly if they have studied certain bear, a growing shortage of Those who make the case for the knowledge economy labour market. would say that it doesn’t really matter, particularly for subjects. Six months after graduating, many end up practical skills, and an army of kids OnOn thethe faceface ofof it,it, thethe policypolicy hashas beenbeen aa remarkableremarkable success.success. HoweverHowever,, thethe expaexpansionnsion ofof higherhigher graduates. They argue that all degrees develop higher European Centre for the Development of education has been uneven, to say the least. Between 2002 and 2012, the number of first degrees working in shops, bars and restaurants. burdened with huge debt loads after Vocational Training (CEDEFOP), Roads to recovery: education has been uneven, to say the least. Between 2002 and 2012, the number of first degrees order thinking skills which – given the fluidity of the labour spending upward of seven years in three skill and labour market scenarios for 2025 awardedawarded grewgrew moremore thanthan 80%80% inin somesome disciplines,disciplines, butbut byby lessless thanthan aa quarterquarter inin othersothers –– seesee figurefigure 77.. Table 4 makes the point that some graduates are more post-secondary education. market – matters more than the subject studied at likely than others to find themselves in this situation. At university. In short, any degree is a passport to success. Figure 7: percentage increase in first degrees (selected disciplines), 2000-01 to 2011-12 Figure 7: percentage increase in first degrees (selected disciplines), 2000-01 to 2011-12 one end of the spectrum, more than one in every four fine “Streamlining Credentials”, Vancouver Sun, 20 February 2013 Sadly, that is no longer true. arts and media studies graduates end up in bars, shops %% changechange and restaurants. Among mechanical and civil engineers, The growth in higher education the figure is fewer than one in seventeen. Physical sciences As Secretary of State for Education, I actively promoted the expansion of higher education in this Physical sciences Engineering and technology Table 4: employment in retail, catering, waiting and bar jobs six months after completing a first country. I was convinced that we would need many more graduates if we were to keep pace with Engineering and technology Computer science 24 Computer science degree in 2012 our international competitors and build the wealth of the nation. All first degrees All first degrees Social, economic & political studies Social, economic & political studies At the start of the 1980s, one in eight 18-year-olds went into higher education. By 1990, it was one Law Percentage of graduates Law in work who had retail, in five. Humanities Area of study Humanities catering, waiting and bar Business and administrative studies Business and administrative studies jobs In 1999, the Higher Education Careers Service Unit (HECSU) published the outcomes of a large-scale Biological sciences 18 Biological sciences study of people who graduated from university in 1995 . Back then – nearly 20 years ago – the Subjects allied to medicine Subjects allied to medicine Fine arts 29.0 Mass communication & documentation future looked rosy for almost all new graduates. By late 1997, 30 months after graduating: Mass communication & documentation Media studies 26.7 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 … only 2 per cent of economically active graduates [were] unemployed and less than 10 per 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Performing arts 23.5 cent of graduates [were] in a non-graduate occupation. Most graduates move[d] into work Design 23.1 with relative ease and most graduates [found] work in traditional graduate or graduate track DelvingDelving aa littlelittle deeperdeeper intointo somesome ofof thesethese broadbroad subjectsubject areas,areas, nearlynearly twotwo thirdsthirds (62%)(62%) ofof degreesdegrees Sociology 22.7 awarded in mass communications and documentation were for media studies. Nursing accounts for occupations. awarded in mass communications and documentation were for media studies. Nursing accounts for Physical and geographical sciences 22.1 49% of degrees in the category “subjects allied to medicine”. In the biological sciences, only 14% of 49% of degrees in the category “subjects allied to medicine”. In the biological sciences, only 14% of History 21.1 Research also showed that on average, graduates earned more than people with lower levels of firstfirst degreesdegrees werewere forfor biolbiologyogy purepure andand simple,simple, aa figurefigure dwarfeddwarfed byby psychologypsychology (41%)(41%) andand sportssports qualification19. English 21.4 sciencescience (27%).(27%). Biology 20.8 There seemed no reason to hold back. Evidence of graduate success and a belief in the knowledge Law 19.8 20 2001 Labour Party General Election Manifesto, Ambitions for Britain, economy created an almost unchallenged belief that the only way was up. 20 2001 Labour Party General Election Manifesto, Ambitions for Britain, Psychology 18.9 http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/e01/man/lab/lab01.htm Accessed 24 August 2013 http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/e01/man/lab/lab01.htm Accessed 24 August 2013 21 http://www.theguardian.com/education/2005/jul/14/highereducation.accesstouniversity Accessed 24 Geography 18.8 21 http://www.theguardian.com/education/2005/jul/14/highereducation.accesstouniversity Accessed 24 August 2013 18 August 2013 Elias, P., K. Purcell, A. McKnight and J. Pitcher (1999). Moving On: graduate careers three years after 22 Department for Business, Innovation & Skills and Office for National Statistics, Participation Rates in Higher 22 Department for Business, Innovation & Skills and Office for National Statistics, Participation Rates in Higher graduation. Manchester: Higher Education Careers Services Unit Education: Academic Years 2006/07 – 2011/12 (Provisional), 24 April 2013 19 Education: Academic Years 2006/07 – 2011/12 (Provisional), 24 April 2013 24 AGCAS and HECSU (2013), What Do Graduates Do? See, for example, Walker I and Zhu Y (2013), The Impact of University Degrees on the Lifecycle of Earnings, 23 OECD (2013), Education at a Glance 2013: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing. 23 OECD (2013), Education at a Glance 2013: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing. http://www.hecsu.ac.uk/assets/assets/documents/WDGD_Sept_2013.pdf BIS Research Paper 112. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eag-2013-en http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eag-2013-en

After a downturn, the sector is starting to grow again in the south east of 2 In 2013, there were 95,000 entries for BTEC and OCR level 2 Diplomas in schools in England. There were England and other regions are set to follow in the second half of the decade. 635,000 students in the year group, meaning no more than 15% of all students in the year group took these qualifications. Source: The Data Service, SFR40, GCSE and equivalent results in England 2012/13 (provisional). Many people think of house building and bricklayers when they hear the word construction. In fact, the sector is much broader than this, taking in 2 In 2013, there were 95,000 entries for BTEC and OCR level 2 Diplomas in schools in England. There were major civil engineering projects such as Crossrail as well as commercial, 635,000 students in the year group, meaning no more than 15% of all students in the year group took these industrial and healthcare buildings. Many modern buildings don’t contain qualifications. Source: The Data Service, SFR40, GCSE and equivalent results in England 2012/13 (provisional). any bricks at all; and dry lining is taking the place of traditional plaster walls. Employers increasingly need specialist skills in prefabrication, automation,

project management and the use of green materials and methods.

Source: Gambin L, Hogarth T, Atfield G, Li Y, Owen D, Breuer Z and Garrett R, Sector Skills Insights (2012), Construction. UKCES

There are bumps along both lines. Italy, for example, has high rates of youth unemployment despite Skills shortages are already getting worse… Figure 4: employment rates over time, 16-24 year-olds who have completed education, compared highThere rates are of bumps enrolment along on both vocational lines. Italy, programmes for example in ,upper has high secondary rates of education.youth unemployment Nevertheless, despite the TheSkil UK lsCommission shortages for Employment are already and Skills getting regularly worse surveys… employers to gauge trends in the with 25-64 year olds10 lineshigh of rates best of fit enrolment show that onon vocationalaverage, countries programmes with inhigher upper enrolments secondary in education. vocational Nevertheless, pathways have the labourThe UK market. Commission The most for recent Employment Employer and Skills Skills Survey regularly shows surveys that employersjob vacancies to gaugeare returning trends into the lowerlines ratesof best of fityouth show unemployment, that on average, and countries vice versa. with higher enrolments in vocational pathways have labour market. The most recent Employer Skills Survey shows that job vacancies are returning to 78 pre-recession levels; good news. lower rates of youth unemployment, and vice versa. pre-recession levels; good news. 76 The challenge of youth unemployment was explored in a recent report by McKinsey, “Getting However, many employers find it hard to recruit people with the right skills. This is particularly true Europe’sThe challenge Youth intoof youth Work” unemployment12, a comparative was review explored of eightin a recent countries: report France, by McKinsey, Germany, “Getting Greece, in However,manufacturing, many whereemployers skills find shortages it hard affectto recruit as many people as withthree the in tenright vacancies skills. This (30%). is particularly Agriculture true 74 Italy,Europe’s Portugal, Youth Spain, into SwedenWork”12 ,a and comparative the UK. They review found of that eight an countries: overriding France, reason Germany,for young Greece,people andin businessmanufacturing, services where are not skills far shortages behind – 28%affect of as vacancies many as are three affected in ten byvacancies skills shortages (30%). Agriculture – 72 beingItaly, held Portugal, back isSpain, a lack Sweden of skills a relevantnd the UK. to theThey workplace. found that an overriding reason for young people followedand business by transport services and are communications not far behind – (26%), 28% of community, vacancies are social affected and personal by skills servicesshortages (24%), – 70 16-24 employment rate being held back is a lack of skills relevant to the workplace. followed by transport and communications (26%), community, social and personal services (24%), (%) electricity, gas and water (23%) and construction (23%). Sub-sectors of industry also face enormous 68 They also found that in some countries, young people veer away from technical and vocational electricity, gas and water (23%) and construction (23%). Sub-sectors of industry also face enormous growth in demand, such as tunnelling and aerospace. 25-64 employment rate education,They also evenfound though that in they some apprec countries,iate its young value. people Overall, veer 80% away of young from technical people surveyed and vocational by 66 growth in demand, such as tunnelling and aerospace. (%) McKinseyeducation, agreed even thatthough vocational they apprec educationiate its is value. most helpfulOverall, for 80% getting of young a job. people However, surveyed fewer by than While shortages are reported for degree level jobs, the biggest problem reported by employers is 64 halfMcKinsey of those agreed who wanted that vocational to undertake education a vocational is most coursehelpful actually for getting did aso. job. However, fewer than fillingWhile vacancies shortages in skilledare reported trades ,for such degree as electricians level jobs, and the chefs.biggest problem reported by employers is 62 half of those who wanted to undertake a vocational course actually did so. filling vacancies in skilled trades, such as electricians and chefs. When the researchers turned their attention specifically to the UK, they were struck by the 9 60 Table 3: % of vacancies caused by skills shortages, 2013 When the researchers turned their attention specifically to the UK, they were struck by the Table 3: % of vacancies caused by skills shortages, 20139 imbalance between academic and vocational forms of education: % of vacancies caused imbalance between academic and vocational forms of education: Only 12 percent of United Kingdom young people gain a post-secondary vocational %by of skills vacancies shortages caused Only 12 percent of United Kingdom young people gain a post-secondary vocational Managers by skills20% shortages The UK is not unique in facing high rates of youth unemployment. However, some countries seem to qualification; in contrast, more than four times this number go to university. However, more thanqualification; a quarter (27in contrast, percent) more of young than people four times with this an academicnumber go degree to university. reported However, being more ProfessionalManagers occupations 30%20% manage the transition from education to work very much better than we do. One crucial reason is Professional occupations 30% unemployedthan a quarter six months(27 percent) after of leaving young education, people with compared an academic with degreeonly 21 reported percent ofbeing those Associate professional/technical 26% their commitment to technical and vocational education. Administrative/secretarialAssociate professional/technical 13%26% withunemployed vocational six training. months The after United leaving Kingdo education,m is the compared only country with surveyedonly 21 percent where of recent those SkilledAdministrative/secretarial trades 39%13% Figure 5 compares male participation in the vocational stream of upper secondary education and the graduateswith vocational of vocational training. courses The United are more Kingdo likelym is to the be only employed country than surveyed academic where graduates. recent Caring,Skilled leisure trades and other service 27%39% percentage of men aged 18-24 classed as not in education, employment or training (NEET) in 2011. graduates of vocational courses are more likely to be employed than academic graduates. SalesCaring, and leisurecustomer and service other service 13%27% In addition, the United Kingdom reported the lowest number of young people undertaking Process,Sales and plant, customer machine service operatives 25%13% Figure 5: enrolment in vocational upper secondary education and youth unemployment11 workIn addition, placements. the United Kingdom reported the lowest number of young people undertaking ElementaryProcess, plant, occupations machine operatives 13%25% work placements. Elementary occupations 13% 90 And to complete the bad news, “the United Kingdom faces a skills crunch in areas related to science, Skilled trades shortages are particularly affecting the manufacturing, hotel and restaurant, 80 technology,And to complete engineering, the bad and news, maths”. “the United Kingdom faces a skills crunch in areas related to science, wholesale/retailSkilled trades shortages and business are particularlyservices sectors. affecting the manufacturing, hotel and restaurant, 70 60 technology, engineering, and maths”. wholesale/retail and business services sectors. 50 In short, we have an enormous skills mismatch. It is already evident in the figures for youth …while youth unemployment remains a serious challenge 40 unemployment,In short, we have and an it enormous is set to get skills much mismatch. worse in It the is alreadyyears to eviden come.t in the figures for youth …while youth unemployment remains a serious challenge 30 In the UK, the employment prospects of young people have been getting gradually worse over 20 unemployment, and it is set to get much worse in the years to come. recentIn the years. UK, the Figure employment 3 compares prospects the employment of young peoplerates of have 16-14 been year getting olds who gradually have completed worse over their 10 educationrecent years. with Figurethe employment 3 compares rates the ofemployment people aged rates 25- 64.of 16 The-14 figures year olds are whofrom have the October completed- their 0 Decembereducation Labour with the Force employment Survey. rates of people aged 25-64. The figures are from the October- December Labour Force Survey.

Participation in VET (%) NEET 18-24 (%) Linear (Participation in VET (%)) Linear (NEET 18-24 (%))

10 Office for National Statistics, Labour Force Survey 11 Source: Eurostat. Enrolments in vocational education: 12 Mourshed M, Patel J and Sudar K (2014), Education to Employment: Getting Europe’s Youth into Work http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/refreshTableAction.do?tab=table&plugin=0&pcode=tps00055&languag 12 9 Winterbotham M, Vivian D, Shury J, Davies B and Kik G (2014) The UK Commission’s Employer Skills Survey http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/social_sector/converting_education_to_employment_in_europe Mourshed M, Patel J and Sudar K (2014), Education to Employment: Getting Europe’s Youth into Work acce ssed e=en NEET data: http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/submitViewTableAction.do Accessed 21 January 2013:9 Winterbotham UK Results. M, Vivian D, Shury J, Davies B and Kik G (2014) The UK Commission’s Employer Skills Survey 11http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/social_sector/converting_education_to_employment_in_europe February 2014 accessed 2014 10 2013: UK Results. 11 February 2014

Above all, it isAbove striking all, that it is engineering,striking that engineering,technology, computertechnology science, computer and physicalscience andsciences physical all grew sciences all grew Sports science 17.4 ByBy thethe timetime ofof thethe 20012001 generalgeneral election,election, TonyTony BlairBlair waswas convincedconvinced wewe neededneeded thethe boldestboldest targettarget by less than aby quarter less than when a quarter the growth when rate the forgrowth all first rate degrees for all firstwas degrees60%. was 60%. Marketing 15.9 yetyet:: A future less rosy Politics 15.4 It is time for an historic commitment to open higher education to half of all young people A future less rosy It is time for an historic commitment to open higher education to half of all young people In the introduction to this report, I quoted Royal Academy Languages 15.2 before they are 30.20 In the introduction to this report, I quoted Royal Academy before they are 30.20 All employed graduates 13.7 of Engineeringof research:Engineering there research: is a dramatic there is shortf a dramaticall in the shortf Otherall in the countries Other face countries a similar face a similar number of science, engineering and technology graduates Business and management studies 13.7 PoliciesPolicies asas ambitiousambitious asas thisthis frequentlyfrequently fail.fail. ManManyy peoplepeople thoughtthought thisthis oneone would:would: number of science, engineering and technology graduateschallenge challenge entering UK employment.entering UK employment. Looking at trends Looking over at thetrends last over the last Chemistry 13.1 50% higher education target doomed, says thinktank (Guardian, 14 July 200521) The thought that a university degree 50% higher education target doomed, says thinktank (Guardian, 14 July 200521) decade, we startdecade, to understand we start to whyunderstand and how why this and has how this has The thought that a university degree Finance and accountancy 11.3 is the ticket tois instantthe ticket career to instant success career success Despite the gloomy prognostications, however, participation reached 49.3% in 2011/1222. According happened. happened. Computer science and IT 10.5 Despite the gloomy prognostications, however, participation reached 49.3% in 2011/1222. According is creating a isbacklash creating in a Canada. backlash We in Canada. We to the OECD, more people under 30 achieve first degrees in the UK than in any other country in the Maths 9.3 to the OECD, more people under 30 achieve first degrees in the UK than in any other country in the Furthermore,Furthermore, it is no longer it easyis no for longer graduates easy for to graduates find to findhave more BAshave than more the BAs market than will the market will world, with the sole exception of Poland23. Physics 9.0 world, with the sole exception of Poland23. good jobs, partgoodicularly jobs ,if part theyicularly have studiedif they have certain studied certainbear, a growingbear, shortage a growing of shortage of Electrical and electronic engineering 8.8 On the face of it, the policy has been a remarkable success. However, the expansion of higher subjects. Six subjects.months after Six months graduating, after many graduating, end up many end uppractical skills,practical and an skills, army andof kids an army of kids On the face of it, the policy has been a remarkable success. However, the expansion of higher Economics 7.9 education has been uneven, to say the least. Between 2002 and 2012, the number of first degrees working in shops,working bars in and shops, restaurants. bars and restaurants. burdened withburdened huge debt with loads huge after debt loads after education has been uneven, to say the least. Between 2002 and 2012, the number of first degrees Architecture and building 7.9 awarded grew more than 80% in some disciplines, but by less than a quarter in others – see figure 7. spending upwardspending of seven upward years of inseven years in awarded grew more than 80% in some disciplines, but by less than a quarter in others – see figure 7. Table 4 makesTable the 4point makes that the some point graduates that some are graduates more are more post-secondarypost education.-secondary education. Mechanical engineering 5.6 likely than otherslikely tothan find others themselves to find in themselves this situation. in this At situation. At FigureFigure 77:: percentagepercentage increaseincrease inin firstfirst degrdegreesees (selected(selected disciplines),disciplines), 20002000--0101 toto 20112011--1212 Civil engineering 4.7 one end of thonee spectrum, end of th moree spectrum, than one more in every than onefour in fine every four“Streamlining fine Credentials”,“Streamlining Vancouver Credentials”, Sun, 20 Vancouver Sun, 20 February 2013 arts and mediaarts studies and media graduates studies end graduates up in bars, end shops up in bars, shops February 2013 To be fair, employment six months after graduating may not be a good indication of longer-term %% changechange and restaurants.and restaurants.Among mechanical Among and mechanical civil engineers, and civil engineers, prospects. With this in mind, it is instructive to look at what graduates are doing 30 months after the figure is fewerthe figure than is one fewer in seventeen. than one in seventeen. graduating, based on seminal research by HECSU and the University of Warwick, Futuretrack. Physical sciences Physical sciences Engineering and technology Engineering and technology Table 4: employmentTable 4: employment in retail, catering, in retail, waiting catering, and barwaiting jobs and six monthsbar jobs after six months completing after a completing first a first Futuretrack Computer science 24 Computer science degree in 2012degree in 201224 HECSU decided to work with the University of Warwick to repeat their earlier large-scale study of All first degrees All first degrees people going through higher education. Futuretrack25 followed the progress of tens of thousands of Social, economic & political studies Social, economic & political studies students, most of whom graduated in 2009. Thirty months after graduating: Law Percentage ofPercentage graduates of graduates Law in work who had retail, Humanities Area of study in work who had retail, Humanities Area of study catering, waiting and bar  just over four in ten were in graduate-level jobs Business and administrative studies catering, waiting and bar Graduates are taking jobs that Business and administrative studies jobs jobs Biological sciences  more than three in ten were in non-graduate jobs Biological sciences people without degrees could do. Subjects allied to medicine  about one in ten were unemployed Subjects allied to medicine Fine arts Fine arts 29.0 29.0 Not only does this push down Mass communication & documentation  around one in ten were in full-time study Mass communication & documentation Media studiesMedia studies 26.7 26.7 graduates’ average pay, it also 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Performing artsPerforming arts 23.5 23.5 pushes young people without 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Compare this with 1997, when only 2% of economically degrees further down the labour Design Design 23.1 23.1 active graduates were unemployed and less than 10% Delving a little deeper into some of these broad subject areas, nearly two thirds (62%) of degrees market’s rungs. Delving a little deeper into some of these broad subject areas, nearly two thirds (62%) of degrees Sociology Sociology 22.7 22.7 were in non-graduate jobs. Of course, the state of the awarded in mass communications and documentation were for media studies. Nursing accounts for awarded in mass communications and documentation were for media studies. Nursing accounts for Physical and geographicaPhysical andl sciencesgeographica l sciences 22.1 22.1 economy plays a major part in the fortunes of new Graduate data reveal England’s lost and indebted 49% of degrees in the category “subjects allied to medicine”. In the biological sciences, only 14% of generation, Financial Times, 18 November 2013 49% of degrees in the category “subjects allied to medicine”. In the biological sciences, only 14% of History History 21.1 21.1 graduates. Nevertheless, the two HECSU studies point to a firstfirst degreesdegrees werewere forfor biolbiologyogy purepure andand simple,simple, aa figurefigure dwarfeddwarfed byby psychologypsychology (41%)(41%) andand sportssports dramatic change in graduates’ fortunes. English English 21.4 21.4 sciencescience (27%).(27%). Biology Biology 20.8 20.8 It is also clear from Futuretrack that the choice of discipline makes a big difference, not just six Law Law 19.8 19.8 months after graduating, but 30 months later. Graduates in medicine or dentistry are more or less 20 2001 Labour Party General Election Manifesto, Ambitions for Britain, 20 2001 Labour Party General Election Manifesto, Ambitions for Britain, Psychology 18.9 http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/e01/man/lab/lab01.htm Accessed 24 August 2013 Psychology 18.9 guaranteed graduate level jobs, unlike many of their contemporaries in law and linguistics, for http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/e01/man/lab/lab01.htm Accessed 24 August 2013 21 http://www.theguardian.com/education/2005/jul/14/highereducation.accesstouniversity Accessed 24 Geography Geography 18.8 18.8 example (see table 5). The class of degree matters too (figure 8). 21 http://www.theguardian.com/education/2005/jul/14/highereducation.accesstouniversity Accessed 24 August 2013 August 2013 22 Department for Business, Innovation & Skills and Office for National Statistics, Participation Rates in Higher 22 Department for Business, Innovation & Skills and Office for National Statistics, Participation Rates in Higher Education: Academic Years 2006/07 – 2011/12 (Provisional), 24 April 2013 Education: Academic Years 2006/07 – 2011/12 (Provisional), 24 April 2013 24 AGCAS and HECSU24 AGCAS (2013), and HECSU What Do(2013), Graduates What DoDo? Graduates Do? 25 Purcell K, Elias P, Atfield G, Behle H, Ellison R and Luchinskaya D (2013), Futuretrack: Transitions into 23 OECD (2013), Education at a Glance 2013: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing. 23 OECD (2013), Education at a Glance 2013: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing. http://www.hecsu.ac.uk/assets/assets/documents/WDGD_Sept_2013.pdfhttp://www.hecsu.ac.uk/assets/assets/documents/WDGD_Sept_2013.pdf Employment, Further Study and Other Outcomes. Manchester: Higher Education Careers Services Unit http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eag-2013-en http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eag-2013-en

0 The creative and digital sectors are growing rapidly. The term “creative” 20 Level 2 at 16 includes film, TV, theatre, radio, computer games, publishing, advertising,

10 music, performing/visual arts, design and cultural heritage. They increasingly

Replacing people who leave the skilled trades means recruiting over 400,000 people by 2020 – and that’s before net growth is factored in.

After a downturn, the sector is starting to grow again in the south east of 2 In 2013, there were 95,000 entries for BTEC and OCR level 2 Diplomas in schools in England. There were England and other regions are set to follow in the second half of the decade. 635,000 students in the year group, meaning no more than 15% of all students in the year group took these qualifications. Source: The Data Service, SFR40, GCSE and equivalent results in England 2012/13 (provisional). Many people think of house building and bricklayers when they hear the word construction. In fact, the sector is much broader than this, taking in 2 In 2013, there were 95,000 entries for BTEC and OCR level 2 Diplomas in schools in England. There were major civil engineering projects such as Crossrail as well as commercial, 635,000 students in the year group, meaning no more than 15% of all students in the year group took these industrial and healthcare buildings. Many modern buildings don’t contain qualifications. Source: The Data Service, SFR40, GCSE and equivalent results in England 2012/13 (provisional). any bricks at all; and dry lining is taking the place of traditional plaster walls. Employers increasingly need specialist skills in prefabrication, automation,

project management and the use of green materials and methods.

Source: Gambin L, Hogarth T, Atfield G, Li Y, Owen D, Breuer Z and Garrett R, Sector Skills Insights (2012), Construction. UKCES

Participation in VET (%) NEET 18-24 (%) Linear (Participation in VET (%)) Linear (NEET 18-24 (%))

10 Office for National Statistics, Labour Force Survey 11 Source: Eurostat. Enrolments in vocational education: 12 Mourshed M, Patel J and Sudar K (2014), Education to Employment: Getting Europe’s Youth into Work http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/refreshTableAction.do?tab=table&plugin=0&pcode=tps00055&languag http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/social_sector/converting_education_to_employment_in_europe12 Mourshed M, Patel J and Sudar K (2014), Education to Employment: Getting Europe’s Youth into Work acce ssed e=en NEET data: http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/submitViewTableAction.do Accessed 21 January 11http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/social_sector/converting_education_to_employment_in_europe February 2014 accessed 11 2014 11 February 2014

Above all, it isAbove striking all, that it is engineering,striking that engineering,technology, computertechnology science, computer and physicalscience andsciences physical all grew sciences all grew Sports science 17.4 by less than aby quarter less than when a quarter the growth when rate the forgrowth all first rate degrees for all firstwas degrees60%. was 60%. Marketing 15.9 Politics 15.4 A future lessA future rosy less rosy Languages 15.2 In the introductionIn the introductionto this report, to I thisquoted report, Royal I quoted Academy Royal Academy All employed graduates 13.7 of Engineeringof research:Engineering there research: is a dramatic there is shortf a dramaticall in the shortf Otherall in the countries Other face countries a similar face a similar number of science,number engineering of science, andengineering technology and graduates technology graduateschallenge challenge Business and management studies 13.7 entering UK employment.entering UK employment. Looking at trends Looking over at thetrends last over the last Chemistry 13.1 The thought that a university degree decade, we startdecade, to understand we start to whyunderstand and how why this and has how this has The thought that a university degree Finance and accountancy 11.3 is the ticket to instant career success happened. happened. is the ticket to instant career success Computer science and IT 10.5 is creating a isbacklash creating in a Canada. backlash We in Canada. We Maths 9.3 Furthermore,Furthermore, it is no longer it easyis no for longer graduates easy for to graduates find to findhave more BAshave than more the BAs market than will the market will Physics 9.0 good jobs, partgoodicularly jobs ,if part theyicularly have studiedif they have certain studied certainbear, a growingbear, shortage a growing of shortage of Electrical and electronic engineering 8.8 subjects. Six subjects.months after Six months graduating, after many graduating, end up many end uppractical skills,practical and an skills, army andof kids an army of kids Economics 7.9 working in shops,working bars in and shops, restaurants. bars and restaurants. burdened withburdened huge debt with loads huge after debt loads after spending upwardspending of seven upward years of inseven years in Architecture and building 7.9 Table 4 makesTable the 4point makes that the some point graduates that some are graduates more are more post-secondarypost education.-secondary education. Mechanical engineering 5.6 likely than others to find themselves in this situation. At likely than others to find themselves in this situation. At Civil engineering 4.7 one end of thonee spectrum, end of th moree spectrum, than one more in every than onefour in fine every four“Streamlining fine Credentials”,“Streamlining Vancouver Credentials”, Sun, 20 Vancouver Sun, 20 February 2013 arts and mediaarts studies and media graduates studies end graduates up in bars, end shops up in bars, shops February 2013 To be fair, employment six months after graduating may not be a good indication of longer-term and restaurants.and restaurants.Among mechanical Among and mechanical civil engineers, and civil engineers, prospects. With this in mind, it is instructive to look at what graduates are doing 30 months after the figure is fewerthe figure than is one fewer in seventeen. than one in seventeen. graduating, based on seminal research by HECSU and the University of Warwick, Futuretrack.

Table 4: employmentTable 4: employment in retail, catering, in retail, waiting catering, and barwaiting jobs and six monthsbar jobs after six months completing after a completing first a first Futuretrack degree in 2012degree24 in 201224 HECSU decided to work with the University of Warwick to repeat their earlier large-scale study of people going through higher education. Futuretrack25 followed the progress of tens of thousands of Percentage ofPercentage graduates of graduates students, most of whom graduated in 2009. Thirty months after graduating: in work who hadin work retail, who had retail, Area of study Area of study  just over four in ten were in graduate-level jobs catering, waitingcatering, and bar waiting and bar Graduates are taking jobs that jobs jobs  more than three in ten were in non-graduate jobs people without degrees could do.  about one in ten were unemployed Fine arts Fine arts 29.0 29.0 Not only does this push down  around one in ten were in full-time study Media studiesMedia studies 26.7 26.7 graduates’ average pay, it also pushes young people without Performing artsPerforming arts 23.5 23.5 Compare this with 1997, when only 2% of economically degrees further down the labour Design Design 23.1 23.1 active graduates were unemployed and less than 10% market’s rungs. Sociology Sociology 22.7 22.7 were in non-graduate jobs. Of course, the state of the Physical and geographicaPhysical andl sciencesgeographica l sciences 22.1 22.1 economy plays a major part in the fortunes of new Graduate data reveal England’s lost and indebted generation, Financial Times, 18 November 2013 History History 21.1 21.1 graduates. Nevertheless, the two HECSU studies point to a dramatic change in graduates’ fortunes. English English 21.4 21.4 Biology Biology 20.8 20.8 It is also clear from Futuretrack that the choice of discipline makes a big difference, not just six Law Law 19.8 19.8 months after graduating, but 30 months later. Graduates in medicine or dentistry are more or less Psychology Psychology 18.9 18.9 guaranteed graduate level jobs, unlike many of their contemporaries in law and linguistics, for Geography Geography 18.8 18.8 example (see table 5). The class of degree matters too (figure 8).

24 AGCAS and HECSU24 AGCAS (2013), and HECSU What Do(2013), Graduates What DoDo? Graduates Do? 25 Purcell K, Elias P, Atfield G, Behle H, Ellison R and Luchinskaya D (2013), Futuretrack: Transitions into http://www.hecsu.ac.uk/assets/assets/documents/WDGD_Sept_2013.pdfhttp://www.hecsu.ac.uk/assets/assets/documents/WDGD_Sept_2013.pdf Employment, Further Study and Other Outcomes. Manchester: Higher Education Careers Services Unit

3 5 Kackett L, Shutt L and Madachlan N (2012), The Way We’ll Work: Labour Market Trends and Preparing for the Taken from table 4.1 in Wilson RA and Homenidou K (2011), Working Futures 2010-20: Main Report. UKCES 6 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/9563647/Record-numbers-reach-retirement- Hourglass.3 Kackett L,London: Shutt L Universityand Madachlan Alliance N (2012), The Way We’ll Work: Labour Market Trends and Preparing for the 4 age-as-baby-boomers-turn-65.html Hourglass.McIntosh S London: (2013), HollowingUniversity outAlliance and the future of the labour market, Department for Business, Innovation 5 Taken from table 4.1 in Wilson RA and Homenidou K (2011), Working Futures 2010-20: Main Report. UKCES and4 Skills Research Paper 134 6 McIntosh S (2013), Hollowing out and the future of the labour market, Department for Business, Innovation http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/9563647/Record-numbers-reach-retirement - and Skills Research Paper 134 age-as-baby-boomers-turn-65.html

Education: the skills mismatch starts early TheEducation: Education and the Employers skills mismatchTaskforce recently starts compared early young people’s career aspirations with 13 Reporting in 2011, Ofsted praised good practice in some secondary schools: theThe labour Education market’s and Employers current and Taskforce future needs recently. They compared found anyoung enormous people’s mismatch. career aspirations with the labour market’s current and future needs13. They found an enormous mismatch. Interest in some careers far outweighs the number of vacancies on offer. Among 13-14 year olds, In outstanding secondary schools, students learnt how modern materials and new technologies worked and how to design and make with them.15 moreInterest than in asome quarter careers - 27% far - saidoutweighs they would the number like jobs of in vacancies culture, mediaon offer. or sport,Among whereas 13-14 year these olds, sectors combined will provide only 2% of all vacancies between 2010 and 2020. more than a quarter - 27% - said they would like jobs in culture, media or sport, whereas these Unfortunately, this was not representative of schools as a whole: sectors combined will provide only 2% of all vacancies between 2010 and 2020. At the opposite end of the spectrum, no 11-12 year olds – zero percent – expressed interest in a Many teachers were not keeping pace with technological developments or expanding upon career in manufacturing, even though the sector provides over 10% of all jobs in the UK economy. At the opposite end of the spectrum, no 11-12 year olds – zero percent – expressed interest in a their initial training sufficiently to enable them to teach the technically demanding aspects career in manufacturing, even though the sector provides over 10% of all jobs in the UK economy. This is partly a failure of careers education. Children know about the jobs they see in their daily lives, of the curriculum. The variation between the best and weakest provision was unacceptably wide. whetherThis is partly at school, a failure in theof careers high street education. or on television. Children know They about the jobs they see in their daily lives, do not know about the myriad jobs done on office parks whether at school, in the high street or on television. They Concerns have also been expressed In around a third of the secondary schools, too little use was made of electronics, computer and industrial estates. We need to open up opportunities do not know about the myriad jobs done on office parks aboutConcerns the havepractical also contentbeen expressed of the aided design and manufacture (CAD and CAM) and control technology in the teaching of for them to find out about a whole variety of careers, and industrial estates. We need to open up opportunities scienceabout the curriculum. practical Thecontent Gatsby of the D&T. Consequently, the take-up of GCSE courses in electronics and in systems and control starting in primary school. for them to find out about a whole variety of careers, Charitablescience curriculum. Foundation The said: Gatsby was low, reflecting the national picture.16 starting in primary school. Charitable Foundation said: But we should be just as concerned about the school There has been a steady As Ofsted found, very few students take GCSEs in the most high-tech aspects of Design and curriculum. There is too little learning by doing. But we should be just as concerned about the school erosionThere has of thebeen teaching a steady of Technology: in 2010, just 2% of all entries were in the systems and control specialism. Food tech, curriculum. There is too little learning by doing. laboratoryerosion of theskills. teaching This erosion of is When I introduced the National Curriculum, I was proud to graphic products and textiles accounted for 56% of all entries – see Figure 6. alaboratory cause of significant skills. This concernerosion is includeWhen I Designintroduced and Technologythe National alongside Curriculum, mor I ewas traditional proud to 17 toa causeindustry of significantand higher concern Figure 6: Design and Technology GCSE entries, 2010 subjectsinclude Designsuch as and maths Technology and science. alongside I was convincedmore traditional young educationto industry institutions. and higher peoplesubjects would such benefitas maths from and learning science. aboutI was convincedthe “made young education institutions. world”.people wouldI was equally benefit convinced from learning that aboutthe subject the “made should Ofsted backed this up in a 2013 includeworld”. handsI was -equallyon learning: convinced design thating theand subjectmaking shouldtangible reportOfsted on backed science this in up schools: in a 2013 GCSE D&T Entries, 2010 (thousands) objectsinclude andhands learning-on learning: to use designa varietying of and tools, making machines tangible report on science in schools: Too many school leavers are andobjects materials. and learning to use a variety of tools, machines not well-enough equipped and materials. Too many school leavers are Since then, however: scientifically with practical, not well-enough equipped 13% Resistant materials Since then, however: investigativescientifically withand analytical practical, 2% 25% The development of D & T in the UK has seen a Food technology skills.investigative and analytical 4% moveThe development away from a of skills D &-focused T in the curriculumUK has seen to a a Graphic products 14 The Gatsbyskills. Charitable Foundation, written knowledgemove away-focused from a skills one.-focused curriculum to a Textiles technology evidence to House of Commons Science and 14% 14 The Gatsby Charitable Foundation, written knowledge-focused one. Technology Committee (Sch Sci 23), 2011 Electronic products Many schools offer a so-called carousel, in which students evidence to House of Commons Science and spendMany blocksschools of offer eight a weeksso-called studying carousel, food in technology,which students Ofsted,Technology Maintaining Committee curiosity: (Sch Sci a survey23), 2011 into Systems and control science education in schools, 2013 23% textiles,spend blocks graphic of designeight weeks and so studying on. This food leaves technology, little time to Ofsted, Maintaining curiosity: a survey into 19% Other gettextiles, to grips graphic with designany of theand areas so on. of This study; leaves little little time time to to science education in schools, 2013 thinkget to deeply grips with about any designing, of the areas making of study; and evaluating little time tangibleto products. think deeply about designing, making and evaluating tangible products.

13 Education and Employers Taskforce (2013), Nothing in common: The career aspirations of young Britons mapped against projected labour market demand (2010-2020) 13 Education and Employers Taskforce (2013), Nothing in common: The career aspirations of young Britons 14 Martin M and Owen-Jackson G, “Is design and technology about making or knowing?” in Owen-Jackson G mapped against projected labour market demand (2010-2020) (ed) (2013), Debates in Design and Technology Education, edited by Gwyneth. Abingdon: Routledge 14 Martin M and Owen-Jackson G, “Is design and technology about making or knowing?” in Owen-Jackson G 15 Ofsted (2011), Meeting technological challenges? Design and technology in schools 2007–10 12 16 (ed) (2013), Debates in Design and Technology Education, edited by Gwyneth. Abingdon: Routledge ibid 17 ibid

Table 5: employment status of graduates 30 months after graduating26

Subject Non-graduate Graduate Unemployed jobs jobs We have more over-qualified workers than any OECD country other than Table 5: employment status of graduates 30 months after graduating26 Japan Creative arts & design 37% 37% 14% Subject Non-graduate Graduate Unemployed The OECD’s survey of adult skills, published in 2013, allows us to compare England with 19 other jobs jobs OECD member states. We are far from unique: in every country, a percentage of workers report that Law 36% 30% 14% they are overqualified for the jobs they do. However, England’s result puts us second only to Japan. Creative arts & design 37% 37% 14% Figure 9: percentage of adults reporting they are over-qualified for the job they do28 Linguistics and classics 34% 31% 14% Law 36% 30% 14% Engineering/ 16% 57% 10% % overqualified technologies Linguistics and classics 34% 31% 14% 35 Subjects allied to 13% 68% 5% 30 Engineering/medicine 16% 57% 10% 25 technologiesMedicine and <1% 92% 2% 20 15 Subjectsdentistry allied to 13% 68% 5% 10 medicine 5 MedicineFigure 8: percentageand of graduates<1% in non-graduate jobs92% 30 months after2% graduating, by class of 0 dentistry degree27 USA Italy Spain Japan Korea

Poland Ireland Austria Finland Estonia Canada Norway Sweden England Average Australia Denmark Germany

Figure 8: percentage of graduates in non-graduate jobs 30 months after graduating, by class of Netherlands

Non-graduate jobs by class Czech Republic degree27 Slovak Republic of degree achieved (%) The earnings premium Non-graduate jobs by class It remains true that on average, graduates earn more than non-graduates over the course of a 60 working lifetime. A report published by the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (Research of degree achieved (%) Paper 112) compared the prospects of people who have a first degree and two or more A-levels with 40 those who have 2+ A-levels but no degree29. Male graduates were estimated to earn an extra 6020 £168,000 over a working lifetime; for women, the earnings premium is even larger, at £252,000. 0 Again, however, the size of the graduate premium varies by class of degree and subject. Another 40 30 1st Upper Lower Third report published by the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills found the highest reported 20 premia to be associated with degrees in medicine and dentistry: 70.1% for men and 91.7% for 0 class 2nd 2nd class women. Other degree subjects offer a lower graduate premium. The best results – 30-35% – are gained by graduates in veterinary science, mathematical and computer sciences, engineering, law 1st Upper Lower Third and education. At the bottom of the table, subjects offering a graduate premium of less than 10% class 2nd 2nd class include mass communication and documentation, historical and philosophical studies and creative arts and design.

28 OECD (2013), OECD Skills Outlook 2013: First Results from the Survey of Adult Skills, OECD Publishing. 26 ibid http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264204256-en (Table A4.25) 27 ibid 29 Walker I and Zhu Yu (2013), The Impact of University Degrees on the Lifecycle of Earnings: some further analysis. London: Department for Business, Innovation and Skills 30 Conlon G and Patrignani P (2011), The Returns to Higher Education Qualifications. London: Department for 26 ibid Business, Innovation and Skills 27 ibid

But there are still very many jobs in the middle ground, as shown in Figure 2 – which scarcely The future of the labour market resembles an hourglass. But there are still very many jobs in the middle ground, as shown in Figure 2 – which scarcely The future of the labour market 5 Table 2: numbers needed by broad occupation, 2010-20 An hourglass economy? Figureresembles 2: Employment an hourglass. by broad occupation, 2010 An hourglass economy?The labour market has changed massively over the last thirty years. Growth/decline Replacement demand Total requirement 5 DemandThe labour for marketboth skilled has changed and unskilled massively manual over workers the last fe thirtyll when years. mines, Figure 2: Employment by broad occupation, 2010 Managers 544,000 1,306,000 1,850,000 Managers, directors, senior officials: 3.0m dockyardsDemand for and both steel skilled mills closedand unskilled and robots manual replaced workers factory fell wh workersen mines,. Professional occupations 869,000 2,315,000 3,184,000

3 5 Kackett L, Shutt L and Madachlan N (2012), The Way We’ll Work: Labour Market Trends and Preparing for the Taken from table 4.1 in Wilson RA and Homenidou K (2011), Working Futures 2010-20: Main Report. UKCES 6 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/9563647/Record-numbers-reach-retirement- Hourglass.3 Kackett L,London: Shutt L Universityand Madachlan Alliance N (2012), The Way We’ll Work: Labour Market Trends and Preparing for the 4 McIntosh S (2013), Hollowing out and the future of the labour market, Department for Business, Innovation age5-as-baby-boomers-turn-65.html Hourglass. London: University Alliance Taken from table 4.1 in Wilson RA and Homenidou K (2011), Working Futures 2010-20: Main Report. UKCES and4 McIntosh Skills Research S (2013), Paper Hollowing 134 out and the future of the labour market, Department for Business, Innovation 6 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/9563647/Record-numbers-reach-retirement - 7 Wilson, R. and Homenidou, K. (2012). Working Futures 2010-2020. UKCES Evidence Report 41 and Skills Research Paper 134 age-as-baby-boomers-turn-65.html 8 ibid

Education: the skills mismatch starts early TheEducation: Education and the Employers skills mismatchTaskforce recently starts compared early young people’s career aspirations with Higher education: the mismatch continues 13 Reporting in 2011, Ofsted praised good practice in some secondary schools: Our training and education system responds well to demand from individuals. By and large, further theThe labour Education market’s and Employers current and Taskforce future needs recently. They compared found anyoung enormous people’s mismatch. career aspirations with 13 Reporting in 2011, Ofsted praised good practice in some secondary schools: and higher education is geared to what students ask for; and as we shall see in this section, this the labour market’s current and future needs . They found an enormous mismatch. In outstanding secondary schools, students learnt how modern materials and new Interest in some careers far outweighs the number of vacancies on offer. Among 13-14 year olds, responsiveness has translated into remarkable growth in the number of people going on to higher technologies worked and how to design and make with them.15 more than a quarter - 27% - said they would like jobs in culture, media or sport, whereas these In outstanding secondary schools, students learnt how modern materials and new education. Interest in some careers far outweighs the number of vacancies on offer. Among 13-14 year olds, 15 sectors combined will provide only 2% of all vacancies between 2010 and 2020. technologies worked and how to design and make with them. more than a quarter - 27% - said they would like jobs in culture, media or sport, whereas these Unfortunately, this was not representative of schools as a whole: That would be fine if students were able to make fully- Even a robust economic recovery sectors combined will provide only 2% of all vacancies between 2010 and 2020. Unfortunately, this was not representative of schools as a whole: At the opposite end of the spectrum, no 11-12 year olds – zero percent – expressed interest in a should not mask the need for Many teachers were not keeping pace with technological developments or expanding upon informed choices. But they’re not. They do not know how career in manufacturing, even though the sector provides over 10% of all jobs in the UK economy. changes in how Europe develops and At the opposite end of the spectrum, no 11-12 year olds – zero percent – expressed interest in a their initialMany training teachers sufficiently were not keepingto enable pace them with to technological teach the technically developments demanding or expanding aspects upon many jobs there are in each sector of the economy, how their initial training sufficiently to enable them to teach the technically demanding aspects uses skills. No matter how well the career in manufacturing, even though the sector provides over 10% of all jobs in the UK economy. of the curriculum. The variation between the best and weakest provision was unacceptably things are changing, or whether a particular course will This is partly a failure of careers education. Children know about the jobs they see in their daily lives, of the curriculum. The variation between the best and weakest provision was unacceptably economy performs, people need the wide. lead to sustained employment. whetherThis is partly at school, a failure in theof careers high street education. or on television. Children know They about the jobs they see in their daily lives, wide. ‘right’ skills to enter and stay in the dowhether not know at school, about thein the myriad high streetjobs done or on on television. office parks They Concerns have also been expressed Those who make the case for the knowledge economy In aroundIn aaround third ofa third the secondaryof the secondary schools, schools, too littletoo little use usewas was made made of ofelectronics, electronics, computer computer labour market. and industrial estates. We need to open up opportunities about the practical content of the would say that it doesn’t really matter, particularly for do not know about the myriad jobs done on office parks Concerns have also been expressed aided designaided and design manufacture and manufacture (CAD (CADand CAM) and CAM) and andcontrol control technology technology in in the the teaching teaching ofof for them to find out about a whole variety of careers, science curriculum. The Gatsby graduates. They argue that all degrees develop higher European Centre for the Development of and industrial estates. We need to open up opportunities about the practical content of the D&T. Consequently,D&T. Consequently, the take the-up take of- upGCSE of GCSE courses courses in electronics in electronics and and in insystems systems and and control control Vocational Training (CEDEFOP), Roads to recovery: starting in primary school. Charitable Foundation said: 16 for them to find out about a whole variety of careers, science curriculum. The Gatsby was low,was reflecting low, reflecting the national the national picture. picture. 16 order thinking skills which – given the fluidity of the labour three skill and labour market scenarios for 2025 starting in primary school. Charitable Foundation said: market – matters more than the subject studied at But we should be just as concerned about the school There has been a steady As OfstedAs found, Ofsted very found, few very students few students take GCSEs take GCSEs in the in most the most high high-tech-tech aspects aspects of of Design Design and and university. In short, any degree is a passport to success. curriculum. There is too little learning by doing. But we should be just as concerned about the school erosionThere has of thebeen teaching a steady of Technology:Technology: in 2010, in just 2010, 2% just of all 2% entries of all entries were werein the in systems the systems and and control control speci specialism.alism. Food Food tech, tech, curriculum. There is too little learning by doing. laboratoryerosion of theskills. teaching This erosion of is graphic products and textiles accounted for 56% of all entries – see Figure 6. Sadly, that is no longer true. When I introduced the National Curriculum, I was proud to graphic products and textiles accounted for 56% of all entries – see Figure 6. a cause of significant concern laboratory skills. This erosion is Figure 6: Design and Technology GCSE entries, 201017 includeWhen I Designintroduced and Technologythe National alongside Curriculum, mor I ewas traditional proud to 17 toa causeindustry of significantand higher concern Figure 6: Design and Technology GCSE entries, 2010 The growth in higher education subjectsinclude Design such as and maths Technology and science. alongside I was convincedmore traditional young educationto industry institutions. and higher As Secretary of State for Education, I actively promoted the expansion of higher education in this peoplesubjects would such benefitas maths from and learning science. aboutI was convincedthe “made young education institutions. country. I was convinced that we would need many more graduates if we were to keep pace with world”.people wouldI was equally benefit convinced from learning that aboutthe subject the “made should Ofsted backed this up in a 2013 GCSE D&T Entries, 2010 (thousands) our international competitors and build the wealth of the nation. includeworld”. handsI was -equallyon learning: convinced design thating theand subjectmaking shouldtangible reportOfsted on backed science this in up schools: in a 2013 GCSE D&T Entries, 2010 (thousands) objectsinclude andhands learning-on learning: to use designa varietying of and tools, making machines tangible report on science in schools: At the start of the 1980s, one in eight 18-year-olds went into higher education. By 1990, it was one Too many school leavers are andobjects materials. and learning to use a variety of tools, machines in five. not well-enough equipped 13% and materials. Too many school leavers are Resistant materials 2% 25% In 1999, the Higher Education Careers Service Unit (HECSU) published the outcomes of a large-scale Since then, however: scientificallynot well-enough with equipped practical, 13% Food technology 4% Resistant materials 18 Since then, however: investigativescientifically withand analytical practical, 2% 25% study of people who graduated from university in 1995 . Back then – nearly 20 years ago – the The development of D & T in the UK has seen a FoodGraphic technology products skills. 4% future looked rosy for almost all new graduates. By late 1997, 30 months after graduating: investigative and analytical Textiles technology moveThe development away from a of skills D &-focused T in the curriculumUK has seen to a a 14% Graphic products skills. 14 The Gatsby Charitable Foundation, written Electronic products … only 2 per cent of economically active graduates [were] unemployed and less than 10 per knowledgemove away-focused from a skills one.-focused curriculum to a Textiles technology evidence to House of Commons Science and 14% 14 The Gatsby Charitable Foundation, written Systems and control cent of graduates [were] in a non-graduate occupation. Most graduates move[d] into work knowledge-focused one. Technology Committee (Sch Sci 23), 2011 23% Electronic products Many schools offer a so-called carousel, in which students evidence to House of Commons Science and 19% Other with relative ease and most graduates [found] work in traditional graduate or graduate track Technology Committee (Sch Sci 23), 2011 spendMany blocksschools of offer eight a weeksso-called studying carousel, food in technology,which students Ofsted, Maintaining curiosity: a survey into Systems and control occupations. science education in schools, 2013 23% textiles,spend blocks graphic of designeight weeks and so studying on. This food leaves technology, little time to Ofsted, Maintaining curiosity: a survey into 19% Other get to grips with any of the areas of study; little time to science education in schools, 2013 Research also showed that on average, graduates earned more than people with lower levels of textiles, graphic design and so on. This leaves little time to think deeply about designing, making and evaluating tangible products. qualification19. get to grips with any of the areas of study; little time to think deeply about designing, making and evaluating tangible products. There seemed no reason to hold back. Evidence of graduate success and a belief in the knowledge economy created an almost unchallenged belief that the only way was up.

13 Education and Employers Taskforce (2013), Nothing in common: The career aspirations of young Britons 15 Ofsted (2011), Meeting technological challenges? Design and technology in schools 2007–10 mapped against projected labour market demand (2010-2020) 16 ibid 18 Elias, P., K. Purcell, A. McKnight and J. Pitcher (1999). Moving On: graduate careers three years after 13 Education and Employers Taskforce (2013), Nothing in common: The career aspirations of young Britons 14 Martin M and Owen-Jackson G, “Is design and technology about making or knowing?” in Owen-Jackson G 17 ibid graduation. Manchester: Higher Education Careers Services Unit mapped against projected labour market demand (2010-2020) (ed) (2013), Debates in Design and Technology Education, edited by Gwyneth. Abingdon: Routledge 19 See, for example, Walker I and Zhu Y (2013), The Impact of University Degrees on the Lifecycle of Earnings, 14 Martin M and Owen-Jackson G, “Is design and technology about making or knowing?” in Owen-Jackson G 15 Ofsted (2011), Meeting technological challenges? Design and technology in schools 2007–10 16 13 BIS Research Paper 112. (ed) (2013), Debates in Design and Technology Education, edited by Gwyneth. Abingdon: Routledge ibid 17 ibid

Table 5: employment status of graduates 30 months after graduating26

Subject Non-graduate Graduate Unemployed jobs jobs We have more over-qualified workers than any OECD country other than There are also signs that the graduate premium is shrinking over time. In a report published by the Table 5: employment status of graduates 30 months after graduating26 Japan Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, Ian Walker and Yu Zhu say: Creative arts & design 37% 37% 14% Subject Non-graduate Graduate Unemployed The OECD’s survey of adult skills, published in 2013, allows us to compare England with 19 other Our suspicion is that a smaller graduate earnings premium may have been driven by the jobs jobs OECD member states. We are far from unique: in every country, a percentage of workers report that rapid and large expansion in the supply of graduates that occurred in the early 1990s.31 Law 36% 30% 14% they are overqualified for the jobs they do. However, England’s result puts us second only to Japan. Creative arts & design 37% 37% 14% In addition, Futuretrack found that graduate salaries fell by an average of 21.9% between 2003 and Figure 9: percentage of adults reporting they are over-qualified for the job they do28 Linguistics and classics 34% 31% 14% 2011; for arts graduates, salaries fell by nearly a third (32.9%). Law 36% 30% 14% Quality apprenticeships enable More recently, the Office of National Statistics compared Engineering/ 16% 57% 10% % overqualified employers to offer innovative the earnings of 12 million employed graduates and 2.5 technologies Linguistics and classics 34% 31% 14% 35 training that responds to their million people who completed apprenticeships32. Subjects allied to 13% 68% 5% 30 immediate needs and is associated Graduates do earn more, on average, than former Engineering/medicine 16% 57% 10% 25 with higher productivity, better apprentices: £15.18 per hour against £11.10 (gross technologiesMedicine and <1% 92% 2% 20 opportunities for sustained median earnings). However, there is a considerable 15 overlap between the wage ranges achieved by graduates Subjectsdentistry allied to 13% 68% 5% employment, better working 10 and apprentices. More than a quarter of graduate medicine conditions and higher skill transfer 5 within and across sectors. employees (27%) earn less than £11.10 per hour, the MedicineFigure 8: percentageand of graduates<1% in non-graduate jobs92% 30 months after2% graduating, by class of 0 average hourly wage earned by former apprentices. dentistry World Economic Forum (2014), Building Social degree27 USA Italy Partnerships for Better Skills and Better Jobs Spain Japan Korea Other evidence suggests that some apprentices will earn

Poland Ireland Austria Finland Estonia Canada Norway Sweden England Average Australia Denmark Germany almost as much as an average graduate over their

Figure 8: percentage of graduates in non-graduate jobs 30 months after graduating, by class of Netherlands working lives. In 2012, a report for Skandia33 included the following estimates of average lifetime

Non-graduate jobs by class Czech Republic

27 Slovak Republic degree earnings: of degree achieved (%) The earnings premium  Apprenticeship in Construction: £1,503,726 Non-graduate jobs by class It remains true that on average, graduates earn more than non-graduates over the course of a  Apprenticeship in Health Care, Public Services & Care: £1,494,547 60 working lifetime. A report published by the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (Research  A degree (average): £1,611,551 of degree achieved (%) Paper 112) compared the prospects of people who have a first degree and two or more A-levels with 40 those who have 2+ A-levels but no degree29. Male graduates were estimated to earn an extra In short, graduates do not automatically earn more than apprentices. There is already considerable £168,000 over a working lifetime; for women, the earnings premium is even larger, at £252,000. overlap between the two groups, and trends in the labour market suggest the overlap will get 6020 bigger, not smaller, in the coming decade. 0 Again, however, the size of the graduate premium varies by class of degree and subject. Another 40 30 1st Upper Lower Third report published by the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills found the highest reported 20 premia to be associated with degrees in medicine and dentistry: 70.1% for men and 91.7% for 0 class 2nd 2nd class women. Other degree subjects offer a lower graduate premium. The best results – 30-35% – are gained by graduates in veterinary science, mathematical and computer sciences, engineering, law 1st Upper Lower Third and education. At the bottom of the table, subjects offering a graduate premium of less than 10% include mass communication and documentation, historical and philosophical studies and creative class 2nd 2nd class arts and design.

28 OECD (2013), OECD Skills Outlook 2013: First Results from the Survey of Adult Skills, OECD Publishing. 31 BIS Research Paper 112, op cit 26 ibid http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264204256-en (Table A4.25) 32 http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/business-transparency/freedom-of-information/what-can-i- 27 ibid 29 Walker I and Zhu Yu (2013), The Impact of University Degrees on the Lifecycle of Earnings: some further request/published-ad-hoc-data/labour/december-2013/graduates-and-non-graduates-with-an-apprenticeship.xls 33 First Steps to Wealth: a study of career and earning opportunities for young Britons, January 2012. Report analysis. London: Department for Business, Innovation and Skills 30 Conlon G and Patrignani P (2011), The Returns to Higher Education Qualifications. London: Department for published by Skandia, based on research by CoreData Research UK. 26 ibid Business, Innovation and Skills http://www2.skandia.co.uk/Documents/Literature%20Library/212-5003-first-steps-to-wealth.pdf 27 ibid

But there are still very many jobs in the middle ground, as shown in Figure 2 – which scarcely resembles an hourglass. Skills shortages are already getting worse… But there are still very many jobs in the middle ground, as shown in Figure 2 – which scarcely TheSkil UK lsCommission shortages for Employment are already and Skills getting regularly worse surveys… employers to gauge trends in the Figure 2: Employment by broad occupation, 20105 Table 2: numbers needed by broad occupation, 2010-20 resembles an hourglass. labourThe UK market. Commission The most for recent Employment Employer and Skills Skills Survey regularly shows surveys that employersjob vacancies to gaugeare returning trends into the Growth/decline Replacement demand Total requirement labour market. The most recent Employer Skills Survey shows that job vacancies are returning to Figure 2: Employment by broad occupation, 20105 pre-recession levels; good news. Managers 544,000 1,306,000 1,850,000 pre-recession levels; good news. Managers, directors, senior officials: 3.0m Professional occupations 869,000 2,315,000 3,184,000 However, many employers find it hard to recruit people with the right skills. This is particularly true Associate professional/technical 551,000 1,450,000 2,000,000 in However,manufacturing, many whereemployers skills find shortages it hard affectto recruit as many people as withthree the in tenright vacancies skills. This (30%). is particularly Agriculture true Managers,Professional directors, occupations: senior officials:5.8m 3.0m Administrative/secretarial -387,000 1,695,000 1,309,000 andin businessmanufacturing, services where are not skills far shortages behind – 28%affect of as vacancies many as are three affected in ten byvacancies skills shortages (30%). Agriculture – Skilled trades -230,000 1,383,000 1,153,000 followedand business by transport services and are communications not far behind – (26%), 28% of community, vacancies are social affected and personal by skills servicesshortages (24%), – AssociateProfessional professional: occupations: 3.9m 5.8m Caring, leisure and other service 313,000 1,144,000 1,457,000 electricity,followed gasby transport and water and (23%) communications and construction (26%), (23%). community, Sub-sectors social of industryand personal also faceservices enormous (24%), Sales and customer service 2,000 938,000 939,000 growthelectricity, in demand, gas and such water as tunnelling(23%) and andconstruction aerospace. (23%). Sub-sectors of industry also face enormous AdminAssociate and secretarial: professional: 3.7m 3.9m Process, plant, machine operatives -213,000 845,000 633,000 growth in demand, such as tunnelling and aerospace. Elementary occupations 101,000 1,243,000 1,344,000 While shortages are reported for degree level jobs, the biggest problem reported by employers is AdminSkilled and trades: secretarial: 3.5m 3.7m Source: The UK Commission for Employment and Skills7 fillingWhile vacancies shortages in skilledare reported trades ,for such degree as electricians level jobs, and the chefs.biggest problem reported by employers is filling vacancies in skilled trades, such as electricians and chefs. 8 Caring, leisure,Skilled other trades: service: 3.5m 2.7m Figure 3: requirement for new recruits, 2010-20 Table 3: % of vacancies caused by skills shortages, 20139 9 Table 3: % of vacancies caused by skills shortages, 2013 % of vacancies caused Sales,Caring, customer leisure, otherservice: service: 2.6m 2.7m Total Requirement, 2010-20 %by of skills vacancies shortages caused Managers by skills20% shortages

Process,Sales, customer machines: service: 1.9m 2.6m ProfessionalManagers occupations 30%20% Professional occupations 30% Managers Associate professional/technical 26% Process,Elementary: machines: 3.2m 1.9m Administrative/secretarialAssociate professional/technical 13%26% Professional SkilledAdministrative/secretarial trades 39%13%

Elementary: 3.2m Associate professional Caring,Skilled leisure trades and other service 27%39% SalesCaring, and leisurecustomer and service other service 13%27% Retirement Administrative Sales and customer service 13% In debates about the hourglass economy, there’s one trend that gets remarkably little attention, Process, plant, machine operatives 25% Skilled trades Process, plant, machine operatives 25% Retirement Elementary occupations 13% despite its huge importance: retirement. Caring/leisure/service Elementary occupations 13% In debates about the hourglass economy, there’s one trend that gets remarkably little attention, Skilled trades shortages are particularly affecting the manufacturing, hotel and restaurant, There was a sharp spike in the birth rate following the mass demobilisation of our armed forces in Sales/customer service despite its huge importance: retirement. wholesale/retailSkilled trades shortages and business are particularlyservices sectors. affecting the manufacturing, hotel and restaurant, 1946-47. As a result, the number of people reaching the age of 65 leapt by 30% between 2011 and Process, plant, machine wholesale/retail and business services sectors. 6 2012There. Birth was rates a sharp fell backspike inin the the 1950sbirth rate before following rising to the another mass demobilisation peak in 1965. of our armed forces in Elementary …while youth unemployment remains a serious challenge 1946-47. As a result, the number of people reaching the age of 65 leapt by 30% between 2011 and In …thewhile UK, the youth employment unemployment prospects of young remains people a have serious been gettingchallenge gradually worse over Thanks to6 changes in legislation, some people born in this period will stay on in employment beyond 2012 . Birth rates fell back in the 1950s before rising to another peak in 1965. recentIn the years. UK, the Figure employment 3 compares prospects the employment of young peoplerates of have 16-14 been year getting olds who gradually have completed worse over their 65. Others will opt for part-time work. Nevertheless, we are about to lose skills and experience on an educationrecent years. with Figurethe employment 3 compares rates the ofemployment people aged rates 25- 64.of 16 The-14 figures year olds are whofrom have the October completed- their unprecedentedThanks to changes scale. inIn legislation,fact, replacing some people people is theborn biggest in this challenge period will we stay face. on in employment beyond In other words, labour market demand is more evenly distributed than most people probably realise. education with the employment rates of people aged 25-64. The figures are from the October- 65. Others will opt for part-time work. Nevertheless, we are about to lose skills and experience on an December Labour Force Survey. Table 1 is based on forecasts published by the UK Commission for Employment and Skills for the In the present decade, more than one in five of all opportunities – three million – will be in December Labour Force Survey. unprecedented scale. In fact, replacing people is the biggest challenge we face. period 2010-2020. These show that upward and downward trends are dwarfed by the number of professional occupations. But there will also be two million opportunities for people with level 4 technical skills and another million for people in the skilled trades. newTable recruits 1 is basedneeded on to forecasts replace peoplepublished leaving by the employment. UK Commission for Employment and Skills for the period 2010-2020. These show that upward and downward trends are dwarfed by the number of We’re not talking about the forgotten few: these are the forgotten many. new recruits needed to replace people leaving employment.

5 Taken from table 4.1 in Wilson RA and Homenidou K (2011), Working Futures 2010-20: Main Report. UKCES 6 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/9563647/Record -numbers-reach-retirement- age-as-baby-boomers-turn-65.html 9 5 Taken from table 4.1 in Wilson RA and Homenidou K (2011), Working Futures 2010-20: Main Report. UKCES Winterbotham M, Vivian D, Shury J, Davies B and Kik G (2014) The UK Commission’s Employer Skills Survey 9 6 2013: Winterbotham UK Results. M, Vivian D, Shury J, Davies B and Kik G (2014) The UK Commission’s Employer Skills Survey http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/9563647/Record-numbers-reach-retirement- 7 Wilson, R. and Homenidou, K. (2012). Working Futures 2010-2020. UKCES Evidence Report 41 2013: UK Results. age-as-baby-boomers-turn-65.html 8 ibid

Higher education: the mismatch continues ByBy thethe timetime ofof thethe 20012001 generalgeneral election,election, TonyTony BlairBlair waswas convincedconvinced wewe neededneeded thethe boldestboldest targettarget Reporting in 2011, Ofsted praised good practice in some secondary schools: Our training and education system responds well to demand from individuals. By and large, further yetyet:: Reporting in 2011, Ofsted praised good practice in some secondary schools: and higher education is geared to what students ask for; and as we shall see in this section, this In outstanding secondary schools, students learnt how modern materials and new responsiveness has translated into remarkable growth in the number of people going on to higher ItIt isis timetime forfor anan historichistoric commitmentcommitment toto openopen higherhigher educationeducation toto halfhalf ofof allall yyoungoung peoplepeople technologiesIn outstanding worked andsecondary how to schools, design students and make learnt with how them. modern15 materials and new 20 education. beforebefore theythey areare 30.30.20 technologies worked and how to design and make with them.15 Unfortunately, this was not representative of schools as a whole: That would be fine if students were able to make fully- Even a robust economic recovery Policies as ambitious as this frequently fail. Many people thought this one would: Unfortunately, this was not representative of schools as a whole: Policies as ambitious as this frequently fail. Many people thought this one would: informed choices. But they’re not. They do not know how should not mask the need for Many teachers were not keeping pace with technological developments or expanding upon 50% higher education target doomed, says thinktank (Guardian, 14 July 200521) changes in how Europe develops and 50% higher education target doomed, says thinktank (Guardian, 14 July 200521) their initialMany training teachers sufficiently were not keepingto enable pace them with to technological teach the technically developments demanding or expanding aspects upon many jobs there are in each sector of the economy, how their initial training sufficiently to enable them to teach the technically demanding aspects things are changing, or whether a particular course will uses skills. No matter how well the 22 of the curriculum. The variation between the best and weakest provision was unacceptably DespiteDespite thethe gloomygloomy prognostications,prognostications, however,however, participationparticipation reareachedched 49.3%49.3% inin 2011/122011/1222.. AccordingAccording of the curriculum. The variation between the best and weakest provision was unacceptably lead to sustained employment. economy performs, people need the wide. toto thethe OECD,OECD, moremore peoplepeople underunder 3030 achieveachieve firstfirst degreesdegrees inin thethe UKUK thanthan inin anyany otherother countrycountry inin thethe wide. ‘right’ skills to enter and stay in the 23 world, with the sole exception of Poland 23. Those who make the case for the knowledge economy world, with the sole exception of Poland . In aroundIn aaround third ofa third the secondaryof the secondary schools, schools, too littletoo little use usewas was made made of ofelectronics, electronics, computer computer labour market. would say that it doesn’t really matter, particularly for On the face of it, the policy has been a remarkable success. However, the expansion of higher aided designaided and design manufacture and manufacture (CAD (CADand CAM) and CAM) and andcontrol control technology technology in in the the teaching teaching ofof On the face of it, the policy has been a remarkable success. However, the expansion of higher graduates. They argue that all degrees develop higher European Centre for the Development of education has been uneven, to say the least. Between 2002 and 2012, the number of first degrees D&T. Consequently,D&T. Consequently, the take the-up take of- upGCSE of GCSE courses courses in electronics in electronics and and in insystems systems and and control control Vocational Training (CEDEFOP), Roads to recovery: education has been uneven, to say the least. Between 2002 and 2012, the number of first degrees 16 16 order thinking skills which – given the fluidity of the labour was low,was reflecting low, reflecting the national the national picture. picture. three skill and labour market scenarios for 2025 awardedawarded grewgrew moremore thanthan 80%80% inin somesome disciplines,disciplines, butbut byby lessless thanthan aa quarterquarter inin othersothers –– seesee figurefigure 77.. market – matters more than the subject studied at As OfstedAs found, Ofsted very found, few very students few students take GCSEs take GCSEs in the in most the most high high-tech-tech aspects aspects of of Design Design and and university. In short, any degree is a passport to success. FigureFigure 77:: percentagepercentage increaseincrease inin firstfirst degrdegreesees (selected(selected disciplines),disciplines), 20002000--0101 toto 20112011--1212 Technology:Technology: in 2010, in just 2010, 2% just of all 2% entries of all entries were werein the in systems the systems and and control control speci specialism.alism. Food Food tech, tech, graphic products and textiles accounted for 56% of all entries – see Figure 6. graphic products and textiles accounted for 56% of all entries – see Figure 6. Sadly, that is no longer true. % change Figure 6: Design and Technology GCSE entries, 201017 % change Figure 6: Design and Technology GCSE entries, 201017 The growth in higher education Physical sciences As Secretary of State for Education, I actively promoted the expansion of higher education in this Physical sciences Engineering and technology Engineering and technology country. I was convinced that we would need many more graduates if we were to keep pace with Computer science Computer science GCSE D&T Entries, 2010 (thousands) our international competitors and build the wealth of the nation. All first degrees GCSE D&T Entries, 2010 (thousands) All first degrees Social, economic & political studies Social, economic & political studies At the start of the 1980s, one in eight 18-year-olds went into higher education. By 1990, it was one Law Law in five. Humanities Humanities 13% Resistant materials Business and administrative studies Business and administrative studies 2% 25% In 1999, the Higher Education Careers Service Unit (HECSU) published the outcomes of a large-scale 13% Food technology Biological sciences 4% Resistant materials 18 Biological sciences 2% 25% study of people who graduated from university in 1995 . Back then – nearly 20 years ago – the Subjects allied to medicine FoodGraphic technology products Subjects allied to medicine 4% Mass communication & documentation future looked rosy for almost all new graduates. By late 1997, 30 months after graduating: Mass communication & documentation 14% GraphicTextiles products technology 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Electronic products … only 2 per cent of economically active graduates [were] unemployed and less than 10 per 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 14% Textiles technology Systems and control cent of graduates [were] in a non-graduate occupation. Most graduates move[d] into work 23% Electronic products Delving a little deeper into some of these broad subject areas, nearly two thirds (62%) of degrees 19% Other with relative ease and most graduates [found] work in traditional graduate or graduate track Delving a little deeper into some of these broad subject areas, nearly two thirds (62%) of degrees Systems and control awarded in mass communications and documentation were for media studies. Nursing accounts for 23% occupations. awarded in mass communications and documentation were for media studies. Nursing accounts for 19% Other 49%49% ofof degreesdegrees inin thethe categorycategory “subjects“subjects alliedallied toto medicine”.medicine”. InIn thethe biologicalbiological sciences,sciences, onlyonly 14%14% ofof Research also showed that on average, graduates earned more than people with lower levels of first degrees were for biology pure and simple, a figure dwarfed by psychology (41%) and sports first degrees were for biology pure and simple, a figure dwarfed by psychology (41%) and sports qualification19. science (27%). science (27%). There seemed no reason to hold back. Evidence of graduate success and a belief in the knowledge

20 2001 Labour Party General Election Manifesto, Ambitions for Britain, economy created an almost unchallenged belief that the only way was up. 20 2001 Labour Party General Election Manifesto, Ambitions for Britain, http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/e01/man/lab/lab01.htm Accessed 24 August 2013 21http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/e01/man/lab/lab01.htm Accessed 24 August 2013 21 http://www.theguardian.com/education/2005/jul/14/highereducation.accesstouniversity Accessed 24 15 http://www.theguardian.com/education/2005/jul/14/highereducation.accesstouniversity Accessed 24 Ofsted (2011), Meeting technological challenges? Design and technology in schools 2007–10 August 2013 16 18 August 2013 ibid Elias, P., K. Purcell, A. McKnight and J. Pitcher (1999). Moving On: graduate careers three years after 22 Department for Business, Innovation & Skills and Office for National Statistics, Participation Rates in Higher 17 ibid 22 Department for Business, Innovation & Skills and Office for National Statistics, Participation Rates in Higher graduation. Manchester: Higher Education Careers Services Unit Education: Academic Years 2006/07 – 2011/12 (Provisional), 24 April 2013 19 See, for example, Walker I and Zhu Y (2013), The Impact of University Degrees on the Lifecycle of Earnings, Education: Academic Years 2006/07 – 2011/12 (Provisional), 24 April 2013 15 Ofsted (2011), Meeting technological challenges? Design and technology in schools 2007–10 23 OECD (2013), Education at a Glance 2013: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing. BIS Research Paper 112. 23 OECD (2013), Education at a Glance 2013: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing. 16 ibid 14 http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eag-2013-en 17 http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eag-2013-en ibid

Apprenticeships: not yet equal We have more over-qualified workers than any OECD country other than There are also signs that the graduate premium is shrinking over time. In a report published by the Modern Apprenticeships have been available at levels 2 and 3 since the 1990s. Originally limited to Japan Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, Ian Walker and Yu Zhu say: young people, they are now open to people of all ages. The OECD’s survey of adult skills, published in 2013, allows us to compare England with 19 other Our suspicion is that a smaller graduate earnings premium may have been driven by the OECD member states. We are far from unique: in every country, a percentage of workers report that rapid and large expansion in the supply of graduates that occurred in the early 1990s.31 The numbers show an impressive rate of growth in recent years. they are overqualified for the jobs they do. However, England’s result puts us second only to Japan. In addition, Futuretrack found that graduate salaries fell by an average of 21.9% between 2003 and Table 6: apprenticeship starts, 2002/03 to 2011/12 28 Figure 9: percentage of adults reporting they are over-qualified for the job they do 2011; for arts graduates, salaries fell by nearly a third (32.9%). Intermediate apprenticeships (level 2) Advanced apprenticeships (level 3) Age 16-18 Age 19-24 Age 25+ Age 16-18 Age 19-24 Age 25+ Quality apprenticeships enable More recently, the Office of National Statistics compared 2002/03 74,400 44,800 nil 23,000 25,400 Nil % overqualified employers to offer innovative the earnings of 12 million employed graduates and 2.5 2011/12 95,400 101,700 131,900 34,100 58,000 95,700 35 million people who completed apprenticeships32. training that responds to their Growth 28% 127% - 48% 128% - 30 immediate needs and is associated Graduates do earn more, on average, than former 25 with higher productivity, better apprentices: £15.18 per hour against £11.10 (gross Growth has been particularly strong in two sectors: business, administration and law; and health, 20 opportunities for sustained median earnings). However, there is a considerable care and public services. In these two sectors, numbers have grown nearly five-fold in ten years. In 15 employment, better working overlap between the wage ranges achieved by graduates 2011/12, 164,830 people started an apprenticeship in business, administration and law – almost 10 conditions and higher skill transfer and apprentices. More than a quarter of graduate three times as many as started an engineering apprenticeship (59,480). 5 within and across sectors. employees (27%) earn less than £11.10 per hour, the 0 average hourly wage earned by former apprentices. In addition, apprenticeships are chosen by only a tiny percentage of 16-18 year olds. World Economic Forum (2014), Building Social USA Italy Partnerships for Better Skills and Better Jobs Table 7: percentage of each age group participating in apprenticeships at the end of 2012 Spain Japan Korea Other evidence suggests that some apprentices will earn Poland Ireland Austria Finland Estonia Canada Norway Sweden England Average Australia Denmark Germany almost as much as an average graduate over their Intermediate apprenticeships (L2) Advanced apprenticeships (L3) Netherlands working lives. In 2012, a report for Skandia33 included the following estimates of average lifetime

Czech Republic Age 16 2.8% 1.1% Slovak Republic earnings: Age 17 4.7% 2.3% Age 18 4.8% 3.8% The earnings premium  Apprenticeship in Construction: £1,503,726 It remains true that on average, graduates earn more than non-graduates over the course of a  Apprenticeship in Health Care, Public Services & Care: £1,494,547 We clearly have a long way to go. working lifetime. A report published by the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (Research  A degree (average): £1,611,551 Paper 112) compared the prospects of people who have a first degree and two or more A-levels with those who have 2+ A-levels but no degree29. Male graduates were estimated to earn an extra In short, graduates do not automatically earn more than apprentices. There is already considerable £168,000 over a working lifetime; for women, the earnings premium is even larger, at £252,000. overlap between the two groups, and trends in the labour market suggest the overlap will get bigger, not smaller, in the coming decade. Again, however, the size of the graduate premium varies by class of degree and subject. Another report published by the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills30 found the highest reported premia to be associated with degrees in medicine and dentistry: 70.1% for men and 91.7% for women. Other degree subjects offer a lower graduate premium. The best results – 30-35% – are gained by graduates in veterinary science, mathematical and computer sciences, engineering, law and education. At the bottom of the table, subjects offering a graduate premium of less than 10% include mass communication and documentation, historical and philosophical studies and creative arts and design.

28 OECD (2013), OECD Skills Outlook 2013: First Results from the Survey of Adult Skills, OECD Publishing. 31 BIS Research Paper 112, op cit http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264204256-en (Table A4.25) 32 http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/business-transparency/freedom-of-information/what-can-i- 29 Walker I and Zhu Yu (2013), The Impact of University Degrees on the Lifecycle of Earnings: some further request/published-ad-hoc-data/labour/december-2013/graduates-and-non-graduates-with-an-apprenticeship.xls 33 analysis. London: Department for Business, Innovation and Skills First Steps to Wealth: a study of career and earning opportunities for young Britons, January 2012. Report 30 Conlon G and Patrignani P (2011), The Returns to Higher Education Qualifications. London: Department for published by Skandia, based on research by CoreData Research UK. Business, Innovation and Skills http://www2.skandia.co.uk/Documents/Literature%20Library/212-5003-first-steps-to-wealth.pdf

Skills shortages are already getting worse… Figure 4: employment rates over time, 16-24 year-olds who have completed education, compared Table 2: numbers needed by broad occupation, 2010-20 TheSkil UK lsCommission shortages for Employment are already and Skills getting regularly worse surveys… employers to gauge trends in the with 25-64 year olds10 labourThe UK market. Commission The most for recent Employment Employer and Skills Skills Survey regularly shows surveys that employersjob vacancies to gaugeare returning trends into the Growth/decline Replacement demand Total requirement prelabour-recession market. levels; The goo mostd news. recent Employer Skills Survey shows that job vacancies are returning to 78 Managers 544,000 1,306,000 1,850,000 pre-recession levels; good news. 76 Professional occupations 869,000 2,315,000 3,184,000 However, many employers find it hard to recruit people with the right skills. This is particularly true Associate professional/technical 551,000 1,450,000 2,000,000 in However,manufacturing, many whereemployers skills find shortages it hard affectto recruit as many people as withthree the in tenright vacancies skills. This (30%). is particularly Agriculture true 74 Administrative/secretarial -387,000 1,695,000 1,309,000 andin businessmanufacturing, services where are not skills far shortages behind – 28%affect of as vacancies many as are three affected in ten byvacancies skills shortages (30%). Agriculture – 72 Skilled trades -230,000 1,383,000 1,153,000 and business services are not far behind – 28% of vacancies are affected by skills shortages – followed by transport and communications (26%), community, social and personal services (24%), 70 Caring, leisure and other service 313,000 1,144,000 1,457,000 16-24 employment rate followed by transport and communications (26%), community, social and personal services (24%), (%) electricity, gas and water (23%) and construction (23%). Sub-sectors of industry also face enormous 68 Sales and customer service 2,000 938,000 939,000 electricity, gas and water (23%) and construction (23%). Sub-sectors of industry also face enormous Process, plant, machine operatives -213,000 845,000 633,000 growth in demand, such as tunnelling and aerospace. 25-64 employment rate growth in demand, such as tunnelling and aerospace. 66 Elementary occupations 101,000 1,243,000 1,344,000 (%) While shortages are reported for degree level jobs, the biggest problem reported by employers is 64 Source: The UK Commission for Employment and Skills7 While shortages are reported for degree level jobs, the biggest problem reported by employers is filling vacancies in skilled trades, such as electricians and chefs. 62 filling vacancies in skilled trades, such as electricians and chefs. Figure 3: requirement for new recruits, 2010-208 Table 3: % of vacancies caused by skills shortages, 20139 60 Table 3: % of vacancies caused by skills shortages, 20139 % of vacancies caused Total Requirement, 2010-20 %by of skills vacancies shortages caused Managers by skills20% shortages The UK is not unique in facing high rates of youth unemployment. However, some countries seem to ProfessionalManagers occupations 30%20% manage the transition from education to work very much better than we do. One crucial reason is Professional occupations 30% Managers Associate professional/technical 26% their commitment to technical and vocational education. Administrative/secretarialAssociate professional/technical 13%26% Professional SkilledAdministrative/secretarial trades 39%13% Figure 5 compares male participation in the vocational stream of upper secondary education and the Associate professional Caring,Skilled leisure trades and other service 27%39% percentage of men aged 18-24 classed as not in education, employment or training (NEET) in 2011. Administrative SalesCaring, and leisurecustomer and service other service 13%27% Process,Sales and plant, customer machine service operatives 25%13% Figure 5: enrolment in vocational upper secondary education and youth unemployment11 Skilled trades ElementaryProcess, plant, occupations machine operatives 13%25% Caring/leisure/service Elementary occupations 13% 90 Sales/customer service Skilled trades shortages are particularly affecting the manufacturing, hotel and restaurant, 80 wholesale/retailSkilled trades shortages and business are particularlyservices sectors. affecting the manufacturing, hotel and restaurant, 70 Process, plant, machine 60 wholesale/retail and business services sectors. 50 Elementary …while youth unemployment remains a serious challenge 40 …while youth unemployment remains a serious challenge 30 In the UK, the employment prospects of young people have been getting gradually worse over 20 In the UK, the employment prospects of young people have been getting gradually worse over recent years. Figure 3 compares the employment rates of 16-14 year olds who have completed their 10 educationrecent years. with Figurethe employment 3 compares rates the ofemployment people aged rates 25- 64.of 16 The-14 figures year olds are whofrom have the October completed- their 0 In other words, labour market demand is more evenly distributed than most people probably realise. Decembereducation Labour with the Force employment Survey. rates of people aged 25-64. The figures are from the October- In the present decade, more than one in five of all opportunities – three million – will be in December Labour Force Survey. professional occupations. But there will also be two million opportunities for people with level 4 technical skills and another million for people in the skilled trades.

Participation in VET (%) NEET 18-24 (%) We’re not talking about the forgotten few: these are the forgotten many. Linear (Participation in VET (%)) Linear (NEET 18-24 (%))

10 Office for National Statistics, Labour Force Survey 11 Source: Eurostat. Enrolments in vocational education:

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/refreshTableAction.do?tab=table&plugin=0&pcode=tps00055&languag 9 Winterbotham M, Vivian D, Shury J, Davies B and Kik G (2014) The UK Commission’s Employer Skills Survey e=en NEET data: http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/submitViewTableAction.do Accessed 21 January 2013:9 Winterbotham UK Results. M, Vivian D, Shury J, Davies B and Kik G (2014) The UK Commission’s Employer Skills Survey 7 2014 Wilson, R. and Homenidou, K. (2012). Working Futures 2010-2020. UKCES Evidence Report 41 2013: UK Results. 8 ibid

This stands in contrast to employer links with University Technical Colleges, characterised as “profound” engagement:

The pattern of employer engagement found in UTCs is:  broad – stretching across a wide range of activities and involving both staff and pupils  deep – engaging individual employers in multiple activities relevant to young people through their school careers  embedded – an accepted part of the UTC culture, regularly encountered by students 36 and staff alike. 31 BIS Research Paper 112, op cit 32 http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/business-transparency/freedom-of-information/what-can-i- 34 ibid request/published-ad-hoc-data/labour/december-2013/graduates-and-non-graduates-with-an-apprenticeship.xls 35 Mann A and Virk B (2013), Profound employer engagement in education: What it is and options for scaling it 33 First Steps to Wealth: a study of career and earning opportunities for young Britons, January 2012. Report up. Report produced by the Education and Employers Taskforce for the Edge Foundation. published by Skandia, based on research by CoreData Research UK. 36 ibid http://www2.skandia.co.uk/Documents/Literature%20Library/212-5003-first-steps-to-wealth.pdf

There are bumps along both lines. Italy, for example, has high rates of youth unemployment despite Skills shortages are already getting worse… Figure 4: employment rates over time, 16-24 year-olds who have completed education, compared highThere rates are of bumps enrolment along on both vocational lines. Italy, programmes for example in ,upper has high secondary rates of education.youth unemployment Nevertheless, despite the TheSkil UK lsCommission shortages for Employment are already and Skills getting regularly worse surveys… employers to gauge trends in the 10 with 25-64 year olds lineshigh of rates best of fit enrolment show that onon vocationalaverage, countries programmes with inhigher upper enrolments secondary in education. vocational Nevertheless, pathways have the labourThe UK market. Commission The most for recent Employment Employer and Skills Skills Survey regularly shows surveys that employersjob vacancies to gaugeare returning trends into the lowerlines ratesof best of fityouth show unemployment, that on average, and countries vice versa. with higher enrolments in vocational pathways have labour market. The most recent Employer Skills Survey shows that job vacancies are returning to 78 pre-recession levels; good news. lower rates of youth unemployment, and vice versa. pre-recession levels; good news. 76 The challenge of youth unemployment was explored in a recent report by McKinsey, “Getting However, many employers find it hard to recruit people with the right skills. This is particularly true Europe’sThe challenge Youth intoof youth Work” unemployment12, a comparative was review explored of eightin a recent countries: report France, by McKinsey, Germany, “Getting Greece, in However,manufacturing, many whereemployers skills find shortages it hard affectto recruit as many people as withthree the in tenright vacancies skills. This (30%). is particularly Agriculture true 74 Italy,Europe’s Portugal, Youth Spain, into SwedenWork”12 ,a and comparative the UK. They review found of that eight an countries: overriding France, reason Germany,for young Greece,people andin businessmanufacturing, services where are not skills far shortages behind – 28%affect of as vacancies many as are three affected in ten byvacancies skills shortages (30%). Agriculture – 72 beingItaly, held Portugal, back isSpain, a lack Sweden of skills a relevantnd the UK. to theThey workplace. found that an overriding reason for young people followedand business by transport services and are communications not far behind – (26%), 28% of community, vacancies are social affected and personal by skills servicesshortages (24%), – 70 16-24 employment rate being held back is a lack of skills relevant to the workplace. followed by transport and communications (26%), community, social and personal services (24%), (%) electricity, gas and water (23%) and construction (23%). Sub-sectors of industry also face enormous 68 They also found that in some countries, young people veer away from technical and vocational electricity, gas and water (23%) and construction (23%). Sub-sectors of industry also face enormous growth in demand, such as tunnelling and aerospace. 25-64 employment rate education,They also evenfound though that in they some apprec countries,iate its young value. people Overall, veer 80% away of young from technical people surveyed and vocational by 66 growth in demand, such as tunnelling and aerospace. (%) McKinseyeducation, agreed even thatthough vocational they apprec educationiate its is value. most helpfulOverall, for 80% getting of young a job. people However, surveyed fewer by than While shortages are reported for degree level jobs, the biggest problem reported by employers is 64 halfMcKinsey of those agreed who wanted that vocational to undertake education a vocational is most coursehelpful actually for getting did aso. job. However, fewer than fillingWhile vacancies shortages in skilledare reported trades ,for such degree as electricians level jobs, and the chefs.biggest problem reported by employers is 62 half of those who wanted to undertake a vocational course actually did so. filling vacancies in skilled trades, such as electricians and chefs. When the researchers turned their attention specifically to the UK, they were struck by the 9 60 Table 3: % of vacancies caused by skills shortages, 2013 When the researchers turned their attention specifically to the UK, they were struck by the Table 3: % of vacancies caused by skills shortages, 20139 imbalance between academic and vocational forms of education: % of vacancies caused imbalance between academic and vocational forms of education: Only 12 percent of United Kingdom young people gain a post-secondary vocational %by of skills vacancies shortages caused Only 12 percent of United Kingdom young people gain a post-secondary vocational Managers by skills20% shortages The UK is not unique in facing high rates of youth unemployment. However, some countries seem to qualification; in contrast, more than four times this number go to university. However, more thanqualification; a quarter (27in contrast, percent) more of young than people four times with this an academicnumber go degree to university. reported However, being more ProfessionalManagers occupations 30%20% manage the transition from education to work very much better than we do. One crucial reason is Professional occupations 30% unemployedthan a quarter six months(27 percent) after of leaving young education, people with compared an academic with degreeonly 21 reported percent ofbeing those Associate professional/technical 26% their commitment to technical and vocational education. Administrative/secretarialAssociate professional/technical 13%26% withunemployed vocational six training. months The after United leaving Kingdo education,m is the compared only country with surveyedonly 21 percent where of recent those SkilledAdministrative/secretarial trades 39%13% Figure 5 compares male participation in the vocational stream of upper secondary education and the graduateswith vocational of vocational training. courses The United are more Kingdo likelym is to the be only employed country than surveyed academic where graduates. recent Caring,Skilled leisure trades and other service 27%39% percentage of men aged 18-24 classed as not in education, employment or training (NEET) in 2011. graduates of vocational courses are more likely to be employed than academic graduates. SalesCaring, and leisurecustomer and service other service 13%27% In addition, the United Kingdom reported the lowest number of young people undertaking Process,Sales and plant, customer machine service operatives 25%13% Figure 5: enrolment in vocational upper secondary education and youth unemployment11 workIn addition, placements. the United Kingdom reported the lowest number of young people undertaking ElementaryProcess, plant, occupations machine operatives 13%25% work placements. Elementary occupations 13% 90 And to complete the bad news, “the United Kingdom faces a skills crunch in areas related to science, Skilled trades shortages are particularly affecting the manufacturing, hotel and restaurant, 80 technology,And to complete engineering, the bad and news, maths”. “the United Kingdom faces a skills crunch in areas related to science, wholesale/retailSkilled trades shortages and business are particularlyservices sectors. affecting the manufacturing, hotel and restaurant, 70 60 technology, engineering, and maths”. wholesale/retail and business services sectors. 50 In short, we have an enormous skills mismatch. It is already evident in the figures for youth …while youth unemployment remains a serious challenge 40 unemployment,In short, we have and an it enormous is set to get skills much mismatch. worse in It the is alreadyyears to eviden come.t in the figures for youth …while youth unemployment remains a serious challenge 30 In the UK, the employment prospects of young people have been getting gradually worse over 20 unemployment, and it is set to get much worse in the years to come. recentIn the years. UK, the Figure employment 3 compares prospects the employment of young peoplerates of have 16-14 been year getting olds who gradually have completed worse over their 10 educationrecent years. with Figurethe employment 3 compares rates the ofemployment people aged rates 25- 64.of 16 The-14 figures year olds are whofrom have the October completed- their 0 Decembereducation Labour with the Force employment Survey. rates of people aged 25-64. The figures are from the October- December Labour Force Survey.

Participation in VET (%) NEET 18-24 (%) Linear (Participation in VET (%)) Linear (NEET 18-24 (%))

10 Office for National Statistics, Labour Force Survey 11 Source: Eurostat. Enrolments in vocational education: 12 Mourshed M, Patel J and Sudar K (2014), Education to Employment: Getting Europe’s Youth into Work http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/refreshTableAction.do?tab=table&plugin=0&pcode=tps00055&languag 12 9 Winterbotham M, Vivian D, Shury J, Davies B and Kik G (2014) The UK Commission’s Employer Skills Survey http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/social_sector/converting_education_to_employment_in_europe Mourshed M, Patel J and Sudar K (2014), Education to Employment: Getting Europe’s Youth into Work acce ssed e=en NEET data: http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/submitViewTableAction.do Accessed 21 January 2013:9 Winterbotham UK Results. M, Vivian D, Shury J, Davies B and Kik G (2014) The UK Commission’s Employer Skills Survey 11http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/social_sector/converting_education_to_employment_in_europe February 2014 accessed 2014 2013: UK Results. 11 February 2014

Above all, it isAbove striking all, that it is engineering,striking that engineering,technology, computertechnology science, computer and physicalscience andsciences physical all grew sciences all grew Sports science 17.4 ByBy thethe timetime ofof thethe 20012001 generalgeneral election,election, TonyTony BlairBlair waswas convincedconvinced wewe neededneeded thethe boldestboldest targettarget by less than aby quarter less than when a quarter the growth when rate the forgrowth all first rate degrees for all firstwas degrees60%. was 60%. Marketing 15.9 yetyet:: A future less rosy Politics 15.4 It is time for an historic commitment to open higher education to half of all young people A future less rosy It is time for an historic commitment to open higher education to half of all young people In the introduction to this report, I quoted Royal Academy Languages 15.2 before they are 30.20 In the introduction to this report, I quoted Royal Academy before they are 30.20 All employed graduates 13.7 of Engineeringof research:Engineering there research: is a dramatic there is shortf a dramaticall in the shortf Otherall in the countries Other face countries a similar face a similar number of science, engineering and technology graduates Business and management studies 13.7 PoliciesPolicies asas ambitiousambitious asas thisthis frequentlyfrequently fail.fail. ManManyy peoplepeople thoughtthought thisthis oneone would:would: number of science, engineering and technology graduateschallenge challenge entering UK employment.entering UK employment. Looking at trends Looking over at thetrends last over the last Chemistry 13.1 50% higher education target doomed, says thinktank (Guardian, 14 July 200521) The thought that a university degree 50% higher education target doomed, says thinktank (Guardian, 14 July 200521) decade, we startdecade, to understand we start to whyunderstand and how why this and has how this has The thought that a university degree Finance and accountancy 11.3 is the ticket tois instantthe ticket career to instant success career success Despite the gloomy prognostications, however, participation reached 49.3% in 2011/1222. According happened. happened. Computer science and IT 10.5 Despite the gloomy prognostications, however, participation reached 49.3% in 2011/1222. According is creating a isbacklash creating in a Canada. backlash We in Canada. We to the OECD, more people under 30 achieve first degrees in the UK than in any other country in the Maths 9.3 to the OECD, more people under 30 achieve first degrees in the UK than in any other country in the Furthermore,Furthermore, it is no longer it easyis no for longer graduates easy for to graduates find to findhave more BAshave than more the BAs market than will the market will world, with the sole exception of Poland23. Physics 9.0 world, with the sole exception of Poland23. good jobs, partgoodicularly jobs ,if part theyicularly have studiedif they have certain studied certainbear, a growingbear, shortage a growing of shortage of . Electrical and electronic engineering 8.8 On the face of it, the policy has been a remarkable success. However, the expansion of higher subjects. Six subjects.months after Six months graduating, after many graduating, end up many end uppractical skills,practical and an skills, army andof kids an army of kids On the face of it, the policy has been a remarkable success. However, the expansion of higher Economics 7.9 education has been uneven, to say the least. Between 2002 and 2012, the number of first degrees working in shops,working bars in and shops, restaurants. bars and restaurants. burdened withburdened huge debt with loads huge after debt loads after education has been uneven, to say the least. Between 2002 and 2012, the number of first degrees Architecture and building 7.9 awarded grew more than 80% in some disciplines, but by less than a quarter in others – see figure 7. spending upwardspending of seven upward years of inseven years in awarded grew more than 80% in some disciplines, but by less than a quarter in others – see figure 7. Table 4 makesTable the 4point makes that the some point graduates that some are graduates more are more post-secondarypost education.-secondary education. Mechanical engineering 5.6 likely than otherslikely tothan find others themselves to find in themselves this situation. in this At situation. At FigureFigure 77:: percentagepercentage increaseincrease inin firstfirst degrdegreesees (selected(selected disciplines),disciplines), 20002000--0101 toto 20112011--1212 Civil engineering 4.7 one end of thonee spectrum, end of th moree spectrum, than one more in every than onefour in fine every four“Streamlining fine Credentials”,“Streamlining Vancouver Credentials”, Sun, 20 Vancouver Sun, 20 February 2013 arts and mediaarts studies and media graduates studies end graduates up in bars, end shops up in bars, shops February 2013 To be fair, employment six months after graduating may not be a good indication of longer-term %% changechange and restaurants.and restaurants.Among mechanical Among and mechanical civil engineers, and civil engineers, prospects. With this in mind, it is instructive to look at what graduates are doing 30 months after the figure is fewerthe figure than is one fewer in seventeen. than one in seventeen. graduating, based on seminal research by HECSU and the University of Warwick, Futuretrack. Physical sciences Physical sciences Engineering and technology Engineering and technology Table 4: employmentTable 4: employment in retail, catering, in retail, waiting catering, and barwaiting jobs and six monthsbar jobs after six months completing after a completing first a first Futuretrack Computer science 24 Computer science degree in 2012degree in 201224 HECSU decided to work with the University of Warwick to repeat their earlier large-scale study of All first degrees All first degrees people going through higher education. Futuretrack25 followed the progress of tens of thousands of Social, economic & political studies Social, economic & political studies students, most of whom graduated in 2009. Thirty months after graduating: Law Percentage ofPercentage graduates of graduates Law in work who had retail, Humanities Area of study in work who had retail, Humanities Area of study catering, waiting and bar  just over four in ten were in graduate-level jobs Business and administrative studies catering, waiting and bar Graduates are taking jobs that Business and administrative studies jobs jobs Biological sciences  more than three in ten were in non-graduate jobs Biological sciences people without degrees could do. Subjects allied to medicine  about one in ten were unemployed Subjects allied to medicine Fine arts Fine arts 29.0 29.0 Not only does this push down Mass communication & documentation  around one in ten were in full-time study Mass communication & documentation Media studiesMedia studies 26.7 26.7 graduates’ average pay, it also 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Performing artsPerforming arts 23.5 23.5 pushes young people without 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Compare this with 1997, when only 2% of economically degrees further down the labour Design Design 23.1 23.1 active graduates were unemployed and less than 10% Delving a little deeper into some of these broad subject areas, nearly two thirds (62%) of degrees market’s rungs. Delving a little deeper into some of these broad subject areas, nearly two thirds (62%) of degrees Sociology Sociology 22.7 22.7 were in non-graduate jobs. Of course, the state of the awarded in mass communications and documentation were for media studies. Nursing accounts for awarded in mass communications and documentation were for media studies. Nursing accounts for Physical and geographicaPhysical andl sciencesgeographica l sciences 22.1 22.1 economy plays a major part in the fortunes of new Graduate data reveal England’s lost and indebted 49% of degrees in the category “subjects allied to medicine”. In the biological sciences, only 14% of generation, Financial Times, 18 November 2013 49% of degrees in the category “subjects allied to medicine”. In the biological sciences, only 14% of History History 21.1 21.1 graduates. Nevertheless, the two HECSU studies point to a firstfirst degreesdegrees werewere forfor biolbiologyogy purepure andand simple,simple, aa figurefigure dwarfeddwarfed byby psychologypsychology (41%)(41%) andand sportssports dramatic change in graduates’ fortunes. English English 21.4 21.4 sciencescience (27%).(27%). Biology Biology 20.8 20.8 It is also clear from Futuretrack that the choice of discipline makes a big difference, not just six Law Law 19.8 19.8 months after graduating, but 30 months later. Graduates in medicine or dentistry are more or less 20 2001 Labour Party General Election Manifesto, Ambitions for Britain, 20 2001 Labour Party General Election Manifesto, Ambitions for Britain, Psychology 18.9 http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/e01/man/lab/lab01.htm Accessed 24 August 2013 Psychology 18.9 guaranteed graduate level jobs, unlike many of their contemporaries in law and linguistics, for http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/e01/man/lab/lab01.htm Accessed 24 August 2013 21 http://www.theguardian.com/education/2005/jul/14/highereducation.accesstouniversity Accessed 24 Geography Geography 18.8 18.8 example (see table 5). The class of degree matters too (figure 8). 21 http://www.theguardian.com/education/2005/jul/14/highereducation.accesstouniversity Accessed 24 (Table continued on next page) August 2013 August 2013 22 Department for Business, Innovation & Skills and Office for National Statistics, Participation Rates in Higher 22 Department for Business, Innovation & Skills and Office for National Statistics, Participation Rates in Higher Education: Academic Years 2006/07 – 2011/12 (Provisional), 24 April 2013 Education: Academic Years 2006/07 – 2011/12 (Provisional), 24 April 2013 24 AGCAS and HECSU24 AGCAS (2013), and HECSU What Do(2013), Graduates What DoDo? Graduates Do? 25 Purcell K, Elias P, Atfield G, Behle H, Ellison R and Luchinskaya D (2013), Futuretrack: Transitions into 23 OECD (2013), Education at a Glance 2013: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing. 23 OECD (2013), Education at a Glance 2013: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing. http://www.hecsu.ac.uk/assets/assets/documents/WDGD_Sept_2013.pdfhttp://www.hecsu.ac.uk/assets/assets/documents/WDGD_Sept_2013.pdf Employment, Further Study and Other Outcomes. Manchester: Higher Education Careers Services Unit http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eag-2013-en 16 http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eag-2013-en

… superficial – not uncommon, but low volume and largely focused on ‘pupil progression’ – innovative, enterprising and capable citizens. Through the evaluation of past and present that is, introducing pupils to the world of work. Only a minority of schools have routinely design and technology, they develop a critical understanding of its impact on daily life and engaged employers in supporting teaching directly or through providing teaching materials the wider world.37 or support to senior managers.35 D&T should be taught in a relevant context throughout Key Stages 1-3, including ‘industrial contexts, This stands in contrast to employer links with University Technical Colleges, characterised as such as engineering, manufacturing, construction, food, energy, agriculture (including horticulture) “profound” engagement: and fashion.’ This creates the perfect platform for deeper employer engagement in the curriculum.

The pattern of employer engagement found in UTCs is: I am pleased, too, that computer science has been introduced into the National Curriculum. Michael Gove has shown vision and leadership in his work with partners such as Microsoft, Google and the  broad – stretching across a wide range of activities and involving both staff and pupils British Computer Society, recognising the importance of modern technology to our future economic  deep – engaging individual employers in multiple activities relevant to young people success. As he said in a recent speech: through their school careers  embedded – an accepted part of the UTC culture, regularly encountered by students Our new curriculum teaches children computer science, information technology, and digital and staff alike.36 literacy: teaching them how to code, and how to create their own programs; not just how to work a computer; but how a computer works, and how to make it work for you. 34 ibid 35 Mann A and Virk B (2013), Profound employer engagement in education: What it is and options for scaling it up. Report produced by the Education and Employers Taskforce for the Edge Foundation. 37 Department for Education (2013), The National Curriculum in England: Framework Document 36 ibid

There are bumps along both lines. Italy, for example, has high rates of youth unemployment despite Figure 4: employment rates over time, 16-24 year-olds who have completed education, compared highThere rates are of bumps enrolment along on both vocational lines. Italy, programmes for example in ,upper has high secondary rates of education.youth unemployment Nevertheless, despite the 10 with 25-64 year olds lineshigh of rates best of fit enrolment show that onon vocationalaverage, countries programmes with inhigher upper enrolments secondary in education. vocational Nevertheless, pathways have the lowerlines ratesof best of fityouth show unemployment, that on average, and countries vice versa. with higher enrolments in vocational pathways have 78 lower rates of youth unemployment, and vice versa. 76 The challenge of youth unemployment was explored in a recent report by McKinsey, “Getting The challenge of youth unemployment12 was explored in a recent report by McKinsey, “Getting 74 Europe’s Youth into Work” , a comparative review of eight countries: France, Germany, Greece, Italy,Europe’s Portugal, Youth Spain, into SwedenWork”12 ,a and comparative the UK. They review found of that eight an countries: overriding France, reason Germany,for young Greece,people 72 beingItaly, held Portugal, back isSpain, a lack Sweden of skills a relevantnd the UK. to theThey workplace. found that an overriding reason for young people 70 16-24 employment rate being held back is a lack of skills relevant to the workplace. (%) 68 They also found that in some countries, young people veer away from technical and vocational 25-64 employment rate education,They also evenfound though that in they some apprec countries,iate its young value. people Overall, veer 80% away of young from technical people surveyed and vocational by 66 (%) McKinseyeducation, agreed even thatthough vocational they apprec educationiate its is value. most helpfulOverall, for 80% getting of young a job. people However, surveyed fewer by than 64 halfMcKinsey of those agreed who wanted that vocational to undertake education a vocational is most coursehelpful actually for getting did aso. job. However, fewer than 62 half of those who wanted to undertake a vocational course actually did so. When the researchers turned their attention specifically to the UK, they were struck by the 60 imbalanceWhen the between researchers academic turned and their vocational attention forms specifically of education: to the UK, they were struck by the imbalance between academic and vocational forms of education: Only 12 percent of United Kingdom young people gain a post-secondary vocational Only 12 percent of United Kingdom young people gain a post-secondary vocational The UK is not unique in facing high rates of youth unemployment. However, some countries seem to qualification; in contrast, more than four times this number go to university. However, more thanqualification; a quarter (27in contrast, percent) more of young than people four times with this an academicnumber go degree to university. reported However, being more manage the transition from education to work very much better than we do. One crucial reason is unemployedthan a quarter six months(27 percent) after of leaving young education, people with compared an academic with degreeonly 21 reported percent ofbeing those their commitment to technical and vocational education. withunemployed vocational six training. months The after United leaving Kingdo education,m is the compared only country with surveyedonly 21 percent where of recent those Figure 5 compares male participation in the vocational stream of upper secondary education and the graduateswith vocational of vocational training. courses The United are more Kingdo likelym is to the be only employed country than surveyed academic where graduates. recent percentage of men aged 18-24 classed as not in education, employment or training (NEET) in 2011. graduates of vocational courses are more likely to be employed than academic graduates. In addition, the United Kingdom reported the lowest number of young people undertaking Figure 5: enrolment in vocational upper secondary education and youth unemployment11 workIn addition, placements. the United Kingdom reported the lowest number of young people undertaking work placements. 90 And to complete the bad news, “the United Kingdom faces a skills crunch in areas related to science, 80 technology,And to complete engineering, the bad and news, maths”. “the United Kingdom faces a skills crunch in areas related to science, 70 60 technology, engineering, and maths”. 50 In short, we have an enormous skills mismatch. It is already evident in the figures for youth 40 unemployment,In short, we have and an it enormous is set to get skills much mismatch. worse in It the is alreadyyears to eviden come.t in the figures for youth 30 20 unemployment, and it is set to get much worse in the years to come. 10 0

Participation in VET (%) NEET 18-24 (%) Linear (Participation in VET (%)) Linear (NEET 18-24 (%))

10 Office for National Statistics, Labour Force Survey 11 Source: Eurostat. Enrolments in vocational education: 12 Mourshed M, Patel J and Sudar K (2014), Education to Employment: Getting Europe’s Youth into Work http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/refreshTableAction.do?tab=table&plugin=0&pcode=tps00055&languag http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/social_sector/converting_education_to_employment_in_europe12 Mourshed M, Patel J and Sudar K (2014), Education to Employment: Getting Europe’s Youth into Work acce ssed e=en NEET data: http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/submitViewTableAction.do Accessed 21 January 11http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/social_sector/converting_education_to_employment_in_europe February 2014 accessed 2014 11 February 2014

Above all, it isAbove striking all, that it is engineering,striking that engineering,technology, computertechnology science, computer and physicalscience andsciences physical all grew sciences all grew Sports science 17.4 by less than aby quarter less than when a quarter the growth when rate the forgrowth all first rate degrees for all firstwas degrees60%. was 60%. Marketing 15.9 Politics 15.4 A future lessA future rosy less rosy Languages 15.2 In the introductionIn the introductionto this report, to I thisquoted report, Royal I quoted Academy Royal Academy All employed graduates 13.7 of Engineeringof research:Engineering there research: is a dramatic there is shortf a dramaticall in the shortf Otherall in the countries Other face countries a similar face a similar number of science,number engineering of science, andengineering technology and graduates technology graduateschallenge challenge Business and management studies 13.7 entering UK employment.entering UK employment. Looking at trends Looking over at thetrends last over the last Chemistry 13.1 The thought that a university degree decade, we startdecade, to understand we start to whyunderstand and how why this and has how this has The thought that a university degree Finance and accountancy 11.3 is the ticket to instant career success happened. happened. is the ticket to instant career success Computer science and IT 10.5 is creating a isbacklash creating in a Canada. backlash We in Canada. We Maths 9.3 Furthermore,Furthermore, it is no longer it easyis no for longer graduates easy for to graduates find to findhave more BAshave than more the BAs market than will the market will Physics 9.0 good jobs, partgoodicularly jobs ,if part theyicularly have studiedif they have certain studied certainbear, a growingbear, shortage a growing of shortage of Electrical and electronic engineering 8.8 subjects. Six subjects.months after Six months graduating, after many graduating, end up many end uppractical skills,practical and an skills, army andof kids an army of kids Economics 7.9 working in shops,working bars in and shops, restaurants. bars and restaurants. burdened withburdened huge debt with loads huge after debt loads after spending upwardspending of seven upward years of inseven years in Architecture and building 7.9 Table 4 makesTable the 4point makes that the some point graduates that some are graduates more are more post-secondarypost education.-secondary education. Mechanical engineering 5.6 likely than others to find themselves in this situation. At likely than others to find themselves in this situation. At Civil engineering 4.7 one end of thonee spectrum, end of th moree spectrum, than one more in every than onefour in fine every four“Streamlining fine Credentials”,“Streamlining Vancouver Credentials”, Sun, 20 Vancouver Sun, 20 February 2013 arts and mediaarts studies and media graduates studies end graduates up in bars, end shops up in bars, shops February 2013 To be fair, employment six months after graduating may not be a good indication of longer-term and restaurants.and restaurants.Among mechanical Among and mechanical civil engineers, and civil engineers, prospects. With this in mind, it is instructive to look at what graduates are doing 30 months after the figure is fewerthe figure than is one fewer in seventeen. than one in seventeen. graduating, based on seminal research by HECSU and the University of Warwick, Futuretrack.

Where do we go from here? At UTCs, employers are involved in designing and delivering the curriculum – particularly through We must give children and young people a far better understanding of the world of work, starting at real-world curriculum projects – as well as governance, Although governments have often an early age. teacher support and a raft of activities ranging from talked of the importance of skills, mentoring to work placements. This is not about choosing a career by the age of seven, ten or even thirteen – though some children skills policy has in practice often of that age do already have very clear ambitions. No, it is about opening their eyes to the many My experience of UTCs is that getting employers been created in isolation from careers that they do not see on TV or in their daily lives. interested is not especially difficult. They want to recruit industrial policy, with too few people with the right skills, knowledge and personal connections between education and Links with employers attributes. They have a vested interest in helping schools the labour market… Vocational I agree with the head of Ofsted, Sir Michael Wilshaw, who has called for employers to get more achieve those goals. education and training should be closely involved with schools, colleges and providers. developed in the wider context of More employers should be in However, they need to be asked. We cannot expect busy labour market and economic policy, The Education and Employers Taskforce asked 19-24 year schools, colleges and providers, people to get involved unless they have a clear idea of and should seek to meet the olds to recall contacts with employers in their time at advising on the curriculum and what schools and young people need from them. The onus different interests of employers, school. They were also asked about their current providing young people with the therefore rests with schools to start the conversation. learners and the state. employment. There was a significant correlation between direct experience of work. the number of contacts with employers at school and Although employers can be involved in every school Labour Party Skills Taskforce (the Husbands Review): Talent Matters – why England needs a 34 Sir Michael Wilshaw subject, the obvious starting point should be Design and success in the labour market. new approach to skills, 2013 Technology (D&T). I am convinced that career connections should start in “Unseen Children” speech, 20 June 2013 primary school and continue throughout secondary I am delighted that the purpose of D&T has been set out so clearly in the revised National education. Career talks by senior, middle and junior staff – including apprentices – should be the Curriculum: norm in every school. Visits should be arranged to local businesses, further education colleges, Design and technology is an inspiring, rigorous and practical subject. Using creativity and training providers and universities. We must widen horizons for all our young people. imagination, pupils design and make products that solve real and relevant problems within a We must also involve employers in the design and delivery of the curriculum. A report commissioned variety of contexts, considering their own and others’ needs, wants and values. They acquire by the Edge Foundation characterised most schools’ links with employers as: a broad range of subject knowledge and draw on disciplines such as mathematics, science, engineering, computing and art. Pupils learn how to take risks, becoming resourceful, … superficial – not uncommon, but low volume and largely focused on ‘pupil progression’ – innovative, enterprising and capable citizens. Through the evaluation of past and present that is, introducing pupils to the world of work. Only a minority of schools have routinely design and technology, they develop a critical understanding of its impact on daily life and engaged employers in supporting teaching directly or through providing teaching materials the wider world.37 or support to senior managers.35 D&T should be taught in a relevant context throughout Key Stages 1-3, including ‘industrial contexts, This stands in contrast to employer links with University Technical Colleges, characterised as such as engineering, manufacturing, construction, food, energy, agriculture (including horticulture) “profound” engagement: and fashion.’ This creates the perfect platform for deeper employer engagement in the curriculum.

Education: the skills mismatch starts early TheEducation: Education and the Employers skills mismatchTaskforce recently starts compared early young people’s career aspirations with 13 Reporting in 2011, Ofsted praised good practice in some secondary schools: theThe labour Education market’s and Employers current and Taskforce future needs recently. They compared found anyoung enormous people’s mismatch. career aspirations with the labour market’s current and future needs13. They found an enormous mismatch. Interest in some careers far outweighs the number of vacancies on offer. Among 13-14 year olds, In outstanding secondary schools, students learnt how modern materials and new technologies worked and how to design and make with them.15 moreInterest than in asome quarter careers - 27% far - saidoutweighs they would the number like jobs of in vacancies culture, mediaon offer. or sport,Among whereas 13-14 year these olds, sectors combined will provide only 2% of all vacancies between 2010 and 2020. more than a quarter - 27% - said they would like jobs in culture, media or sport, whereas these Unfortunately, this was not representative of schools as a whole: sectors combined will provide only 2% of all vacancies between 2010 and 2020. At the opposite end of the spectrum, no 11-12 year olds – zero percent – expressed interest in a Many teachers were not keeping pace with technological developments or expanding upon career in manufacturing, even though the sector provides over 10% of all jobs in the UK economy. At the opposite end of the spectrum, no 11-12 year olds – zero percent – expressed interest in a their initial training sufficiently to enable them to teach the technically demanding aspects career in manufacturing, even though the sector provides over 10% of all jobs in the UK economy. This is partly a failure of careers education. Children know about the jobs they see in their daily lives, of the curriculum. The variation between the best and weakest provision was unacceptably wide. whetherThis is partly at school, a failure in theof careers high street education. or on television. Children know They about the jobs they see in their daily lives, do not know about the myriad jobs done on office parks whether at school, in the high street or on television. They Concerns have also been expressed In around a third of the secondary schools, too little use was made of electronics, computer and industrial estates. We need to open up opportunities do not know about the myriad jobs done on office parks aboutConcerns the havepractical also contentbeen expressed of the aided design and manufacture (CAD and CAM) and control technology in the teaching of for them to find out about a whole variety of careers, and industrial estates. We need to open up opportunities scienceabout the curriculum. practical Thecontent Gatsby of the D&T. Consequently, the take-up of GCSE courses in electronics and in systems and control starting in primary school. for them to find out about a whole variety of careers, Charitablescience curriculum. Foundation The said: Gatsby was low, reflecting the national picture.16 starting in primary school. Charitable Foundation said: But we should be just as concerned about the school There has been a steady As Ofsted found, very few students take GCSEs in the most high-tech aspects of Design and curriculum. There is too little learning by doing. But we should be just as concerned about the school erosionThere has of thebeen teaching a steady of Technology: in 2010, just 2% of all entries were in the systems and control specialism. Food tech, curriculum. There is too little learning by doing. laboratoryerosion of theskills. teaching This erosion of is When I introduced the National Curriculum, I was proud to graphic products and textiles accounted for 56% of all entries – see Figure 6. alaboratory cause of significant skills. This concernerosion is includeWhen I Designintroduced and Technologythe National alongside Curriculum, mor I ewas traditional proud to 17 toa causeindustry of significantand higher concern Figure 6: Design and Technology GCSE entries, 2010 subjectsinclude Design such as and maths Technology and science. alongside I was convincedmore traditional young educationto industry institutions. and higher peoplesubjects would such benefitas maths from and learning science. aboutI was convincedthe “made young education institutions. world”.people wouldI was equally benefit convinced from learning that aboutthe subject the “made should Ofsted backed this up in a 2013 includeworld”. handsI was -equallyon learning: convinced design thating theand subjectmaking shouldtangible reportOfsted on backed science this in up schools: in a 2013 GCSE D&T Entries, 2010 (thousands) objectsinclude andhands learning-on learning: to use designa varietying of and tools, making machines tangible report on science in schools: Too many school leavers are andobjects materials. and learning to use a variety of tools, machines not well-enough equipped and materials. Too many school leavers are Since then, however: scientifically with practical, not well-enough equipped 13% Resistant materials Since then, however: investigativescientifically withand analytical practical, 2% 25% The development of D & T in the UK has seen a Food technology skills.investigative and analytical 4% moveThe development away from a of skills D &-focused T in the curriculumUK has seen to a a Graphic products 14 The Gatsbyskills. Charitable Foundation, written knowledgemove away-focused from a skills one.-focused curriculum to a Textiles technology evidence to House of Commons Science and 14% 14 The Gatsby Charitable Foundation, written knowledge-focused one. Technology Committee (Sch Sci 23), 2011 Electronic products Many schools offer a so-called carousel, in which students evidence to House of Commons Science and spendMany blocksschools of offer eight a weeksso-called studying carousel, food in technology,which students Ofsted,Technology Maintaining Committee curiosity: (Sch Sci a survey23), 2011 into Systems and control science education in schools, 2013 23% textiles,spend blocks graphic of designeight weeks and so studying on. This food leaves technology, little time to Ofsted, Maintaining curiosity: a survey into 19% Other gettextiles, to grips graphic with designany of theand areas so on. of This study; leaves little little time time to to science education in schools, 2013 thinkget to deeply grips with about any designing, of the areas making of study; and evaluating little time tangibleto products. think deeply about designing, making and evaluating tangible products.

13 Education and Employers Taskforce (2013), Nothing in common: The career aspirations of young Britons mapped against projected labour market demand (2010-2020) 13 Education and Employers Taskforce (2013), Nothing in common: The career aspirations of young Britons 14 Martin M and Owen-Jackson G, “Is design and technology about making or knowing?” in Owen-Jackson G mapped against projected labour market demand (2010-2020) (ed) (2013), Debates in Design and Technology Education, edited by Gwyneth. Abingdon: Routledge 14 Martin M and Owen-Jackson G, “Is design and technology about making or knowing?” in Owen-Jackson G 15 Ofsted (2011), Meeting technological challenges? Design and technology in schools 2007–10 16 (ed) (2013), Debates in Design and Technology Education, edited by Gwyneth. Abingdon: Routledge ibid 17 ibid

Table 5: employment status of graduates 30 months after graduating26

Poland Ireland Austria Finland Estonia Canada Norway Sweden England Average Australia Denmark Germany

Figure 8: percentage of graduates in non-graduate jobs 30 months after graduating, by class of Netherlands

39 Ofsted (2013), Going in the right direction? Careers guidance in schools from September 2012 40 39 Ofsted http://www.speakers4schools.org/ (2013), Going in the right direction? Careers guidance in schools from September 2012 41 40 http://www.speakers4schools.org/ http://www.inspiringthefuture.org/ 42 41 http://www.inspiringthefuture.org/ The Scottish Government (2011), Career Information, Advice and Guidance in Scotland: A Framework for 42Service The Scottish Redesign Government and Improvement (2011), Career Information, Advice and Guidance in Scotland: A Framework for 43 Service Department Redesign for and Business, Improvement Innovation and Skills (2013), The Future of Apprenticeships in England: 38 “Michael Gove speaks about computing and education technology”, 2014: 43Implementation Department for PlanBusiness, Innovation and Skills (2013), The Future of Apprenticeships in England: 44 https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/michael-gove-speaks-about-computing-and-education-technology Implementation National Apprenticeship Plan Service (2014), Apprenticeship vacancies increase by a quarter year on year, 44http://www.apprenticeships.org.uk/news National Apprenticeship Service (2014), Apprenticeship-media/latest-news/article398.aspx vacancies increase by a quarter year on year, http://www.apprenticeships.org.uk/news-media/latest-news/article398.aspx

Education: the skills mismatch starts early TheEducation: Education and the Employers skills mismatchTaskforce recently starts compared early young people’s career aspirations with Higher education: the mismatch continues 13 Reporting in 2011, Ofsted praised good practice in some secondary schools: Our training and education system responds well to demand from individuals. By and large, further theThe labour Education market’s and Employers current and Taskforce future needs recently. They compared found anyoung enormous people’s mismatch. career aspirations with and higher education is geared to what students ask for; and as we shall see in this section, this the labour market’s current and future needs13. They found an enormous mismatch. In outstanding secondary schools, students learnt how modern materials and new Interest in some careers far outweighs the number of vacancies on offer. Among 13-14 year olds, responsiveness has translated into remarkable growth in the number of people going on to higher technologies worked and how to design and make with them.15 moreInterest than in asome quarter careers - 27% far - saidoutweighs they would the number like jobs of in vacancies culture, mediaon offer. or sport,Among whereas 13-14 year these olds, education. sectors combined will provide only 2% of all vacancies between 2010 and 2020. more than a quarter - 27% - said they would like jobs in culture, media or sport, whereas these Unfortunately, this was not representative of schools as a whole: That would be fine if students were able to make fully- Even a robust economic recovery sectors combined will provide only 2% of all vacancies between 2010 and 2020. At the opposite end of the spectrum, no 11-12 year olds – zero percent – expressed interest in a should not mask the need for Many teachers were not keeping pace with technological developments or expanding upon informed choices. But they’re not. They do not know how career in manufacturing, even though the sector provides over 10% of all jobs in the UK economy. changes in how Europe develops and At the opposite end of the spectrum, no 11-12 year olds – zero percent – expressed interest in a their initial training sufficiently to enable them to teach the technically demanding aspects many jobs there are in each sector of the economy, how uses skills. No matter how well the career in manufacturing, even though the sector provides over 10% of all jobs in the UK economy. of the curriculum. The variation between the best and weakest provision was unacceptably things are changing, or whether a particular course will This is partly a failure of careers education. Children know about the jobs they see in their daily lives, economy performs, people need the wide. lead to sustained employment. whetherThis is partly at school, a failure in theof careers high street education. or on television. Children know They about the jobs they see in their daily lives, ‘right’ skills to enter and stay in the do not know about the myriad jobs done on office parks whether at school, in the high street or on television. They Concerns have also been expressed In around a third of the secondary schools, too little use was made of electronics, computer Those who make the case for the knowledge economy labour market. and industrial estates. We need to open up opportunities do not know about the myriad jobs done on office parks aboutConcerns the havepractical also contentbeen expressed of the aided design and manufacture (CAD and CAM) and control technology in the teaching of would say that it doesn’t really matter, particularly for for them to find out about a whole variety of careers, science curriculum. The Gatsby graduates. They argue that all degrees develop higher European Centre for the Development of and industrial estates. We need to open up opportunities about the practical content of the D&T. Consequently, the take-up of GCSE courses in electronics and in systems and control Vocational Training (CEDEFOP), Roads to recovery: starting in primary school. for them to find out about a whole variety of careers, Charitablescience curriculum. Foundation The said: Gatsby was low, reflecting the national picture.16 order thinking skills which – given the fluidity of the labour three skill and labour market scenarios for 2025 starting in primary school. Charitable Foundation said: market – matters more than the subject studied at But we should be just as concerned about the school There has been a steady As Ofsted found, very few students take GCSEs in the most high-tech aspects of Design and university. In short, any degree is a passport to success. curriculum. There is too little learning by doing. But we should be just as concerned about the school erosionThere has of thebeen teaching a steady of Technology: in 2010, just 2% of all entries were in the systems and control specialism. Food tech, curriculum. There is too little learning by doing. laboratoryerosion of theskills. teaching This erosion of is Sadly, that is no longer true. When I introduced the National Curriculum, I was proud to graphic products and textiles accounted for 56% of all entries – see Figure 6. alaboratory cause of significant skills. This concernerosion is includeWhen I Designintroduced and Technologythe National alongside Curriculum, mor I ewas traditional proud to 17 toa causeindustry of significantand higher concern Figure 6: Design and Technology GCSE entries, 2010 The growth in higher education subjectsinclude Design such as and maths Technology and science. alongside I was convincedmore traditional young educationto industry institutions. and higher As Secretary of State for Education, I actively promoted the expansion of higher education in this peoplesubjects would such benefitas maths from and learning science. aboutI was convincedthe “made young education institutions. country. I was convinced that we would need many more graduates if we were to keep pace with world”.people wouldI was equally benefit convinced from learning that aboutthe subject the “made should Ofsted backed this up in a 2013 our international competitors and build the wealth of the nation. includeworld”. handsI was -equallyon learning: convinced design thating theand subjectmaking shouldtangible reportOfsted on backed science this in up schools: in a 2013 GCSE D&T Entries, 2010 (thousands) objectsinclude andhands learning-on learning: to use designa varietying of and tools, making machines tangible report on science in schools: At the start of the 1980s, one in eight 18-year-olds went into higher education. By 1990, it was one Too many school leavers are andobjects materials. and learning to use a variety of tools, machines in five. not well-enough equipped and materials. Too many school leavers are Since then, however: scientificallynot well-enough with equipped practical, 13% In 1999, the Higher Education Careers Service Unit (HECSU) published the outcomes of a large-scale Resistant materials 18 Since then, however: investigativescientifically withand analytical practical, 2% 25% study of people who graduated from university in 1995 . Back then – nearly 20 years ago – the The development of D & T in the UK has seen a Food technology skills.investigative and analytical 4% future looked rosy for almost all new graduates. By late 1997, 30 months after graduating: moveThe development away from a of skills D &-focused T in the curriculumUK has seen to a a Graphic products skills. 14 The Gatsby Charitable Foundation, written … only 2 per cent of economically active graduates [were] unemployed and less than 10 per knowledgemove away-focused from a skills one.-focused curriculum to a Textiles technology evidence to House of Commons Science and 14% 14 The Gatsby Charitable Foundation, written cent of graduates [were] in a non-graduate occupation. Most graduates move[d] into work knowledge-focused one. Technology Committee (Sch Sci 23), 2011 Electronic products Many schools offer a so-called carousel, in which students evidence to House of Commons Science and with relative ease and most graduates [found] work in traditional graduate or graduate track Technology Committee (Sch Sci 23), 2011 spendMany blocksschools of offer eight a weeksso-called studying carousel, food in technology,which students Ofsted, Maintaining curiosity: a survey into Systems and control occupations. science education in schools, 2013 23% textiles,spend blocks graphic of designeight weeks and so studying on. This food leaves technology, little time to Ofsted, Maintaining curiosity: a survey into 19% Other gettextiles, to grips graphic with designany of theand areas so on. of This study; leaves little little time time to to science education in schools, 2013 Research also showed that on average, graduates earned more than people with lower levels of 19 thinkget to deeply grips with about any designing, of the areas making of study; and evaluating little time tangibleto products. qualification . think deeply about designing, making and evaluating tangible products. There seemed no reason to hold back. Evidence of graduate success and a belief in the knowledge economy created an almost unchallenged belief that the only way was up.

13 Education and Employers Taskforce (2013), Nothing in common: The career aspirations of young Britons mapped against projected labour market demand (2010-2020) 18 Elias, P., K. Purcell, A. McKnight and J. Pitcher (1999). Moving On: graduate careers three years after 13 Education and Employers Taskforce (2013), Nothing in common: The career aspirations of young Britons 14 Martin M and Owen-Jackson G, “Is design and technology about making or knowing?” in Owen-Jackson G graduation. Manchester: Higher Education Careers Services Unit mapped against projected labour market demand (2010-2020) (ed) (2013), Debates in Design and Technology Education, edited by Gwyneth. Abingdon: Routledge 19 See, for example, Walker I and Zhu Y (2013), The Impact of University Degrees on the Lifecycle of Earnings, 14 Martin M and Owen-Jackson G, “Is design and technology about making or knowing?” in Owen-Jackson G 15 Ofsted (2011), Meeting technological challenges? Design and technology in schools 2007–10 BIS Research Paper 112. (ed) (2013), Debates in Design and Technology Education, edited by Gwyneth. Abingdon: Routledge 16 ibid 17 ibid

Table 5: employment status of graduates 30 months after graduating26

Poland Ireland Austria Finland Estonia Canada Norway Sweden England Average Australia Denmark Germany almost as much as an average graduate over their

Non-graduate jobs by class Czech Republic

28 OECD (2013), OECD Skills Outlook 2013: First Results from the Survey of Adult Skills, OECD Publishing. 31 BIS Research Paper 112, op cit 26 ibid http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264204256-en (Table A4.25) 32 http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/business-transparency/freedom-of-information/what-can-i- 27 ibid 29 Walker I and Zhu Yu (2013), The Impact of University Degrees on the Lifecycle of Earnings: some further request/published-ad-hoc-data/labour/december-2013/graduates-and-non-graduates-with-an-apprenticeship.xls 33 First Steps to Wealth: a study of career and earning opportunities for young Britons, January 2012. Report analysis. London: Department for Business, Innovation and Skills 30 Conlon G and Patrignani P (2011), The Returns to Higher Education Qualifications. London: Department for published by Skandia, based on research by CoreData Research UK. 26 ibid Business, Innovation and Skills 19 http://www2.skandia.co.uk/Documents/Literature%20Library/212-5003-first-steps-to-wealth.pdf 27 ibid

These are precisely the sort of skills which the jobs of the future - and, for that matter, the jobs of the present - demand.38 Careers information, advice and guidance CareersSecondary information, schools and colleges advice have and a statutory guidance duty to provide young people with access to Given this level of demand, we need to boost the number of apprenticeships offered by employers. At 14, young people should be able to take stretching technical and vocational qualifications as part Secondaryimpartial information,schools and collegesadvice and have guidance. a statutory However, duty to not provide all schools young were people prepared with access for this to new The government’s Apprenticeship Grant for Employers Scheme (AGE) shows great potential, having of a broad and balanced curriculum. The government has strengthened technical and vocational impartialresponsibility information, when it advicewas introduced, and guidance. and OfstedHowever, reported not all aschools mixed werepicture prepared when they for cathisrried new out a supported nearly 50,000 new apprenticeship places for 16-24 year olds between February 2012 and qualifications taken by young people at 16 and 18, and they will be properly recognised in future responsibilitysurvey of 60 schools:when it was introduced, and Ofsted reported a mixed picture when they carried out a October 201345. It is vital that we continue to promote apprenticeships to employers of all sizes, performance tables. survey of 60 schools: particularly those in sectors facing skills shortages. Of the 60 schools visited for this survey, only 12 had ensured that all students received And for young people who have a passion for hands-on learning, we must – and we will – continue Ofsufficient the 60 schools information visited to for consider this survey, a wide only breadth 12 had of ensured career possibilities. that all students39 received While intermediate and advanced apprenticeships will continue to attract the largest numbers, to build networks of specialist schools and colleges for 14-19 year olds explicitly linked to the needs sufficient information to consider a wide breadth of career possibilities.39 Higher Apprenticeships have enormous potential to raise the status and reputation of of the local and regional labour market. University Technical Colleges are open or planned in every I have no doubt the situation will improve over time, especially if more employers are invited into apprenticeships as a whole. Designed as a work-based route to higher qualifications, they have a 40 41 English region. The early evidence is very encouraging: excellent pass rates in technical I schoolhave no to doubt give career the situation talks. Initiatives will improve such over as Speakers time, es peciallyfor Schools if more and employers Inspiring arethe invitedFuture into are strong appeal to people who enjoy learning by doing. As Matthew Hancock says, they combine the 40 41 qualifications, supported by strong results in maths and English. schoolfree services to give thatcareer enable talks. schools Initiatives to invitesuch asvolunteers Speakers tofor talk Schools about theirand Inspiring careers. theSchools Future can alsoare benefits of higher education and learning at work. The Chancellor, George Osborne, committed a freeguide services young that people enable to a schools plethora to of invite web volunteerssites and on to-line talk careers about their services. careers. Schools can also further £40 million over two years in his 2013 Autumn Statement, which will support the continued And above all, no NEETs. guide young people to a plethora of web sites and on-line careers services. expansion of this remarkable programme. However, we cannot expect teachers to be careers experts. It is essential for young people to have However,access to we careers cannot specialists expect teachers with a full to andbe careers up to date experts. understanding It is essential of the for labouryoung peoplemarket toand have This is one way of boosting the take-up of work-related qualifications at or immediately below accesspathways to careers to success. specialists In Scotland, with a careersfull and guidanceup to date is understanding recognised as ‘ofa distinct, the labour defined mark etand and specialist degree level. The OECD noted that: pathwaysprofession to which success. demands In Scotland, a unique careers set ofguidance core skills is recognised’42. We must as give ‘a distinct, the profession defined equaland specialist professionrecognition which in England. demands a unique set of core skills’42. We must give the profession equal England has relatively little vocational provision at postsecondary level relative to many recognition in England. other countries, and relative to potential demand, leading to a shortage of mid-level skills This is essential if young people are to make sound choices at 14, 16 and 18. They must have access ….There are ten times as many students enrolled in bachelor programmes than in Thisto the is essential full facts if about young higher peop leeducation, are to make vocational sound choices courses at and 14, apprenticeships, 16 and 18. They andmust the have chance access to foundation degrees… while other postsecondary programmes such as higher national totalk the about full facts their about options higher with education, someone trainedvocational to providecourses impartialand apprenticeships, advice. and the chance to certificates and diplomas are a very small and declining element of postsecondary talk about their options with someone trained to provide impartial advice. education.46 Learning beyond school LearningMatthew Hancock, beyond Minister school for Skills and Enterprise, has summed up his policy in one sentence: This presents a golden opportunity for our further education colleges. Through their links with local Matthew Hancock, Minister for Skills and Enterprise, has summed up his policy in one sentence: and regional employers, they are perfectly placed to reinvigorate programmes such as HNCs, HNDs Our goal is for it to become the norm for young people to go into an Apprenticeship or to and foundation degrees and help young people acquire the skills, knowledge and qualifications that Ouruniversity goal is foror –it in to the become case of the some norm Higher for young Apprenticeships people to go – intodo both. an Apprenticeship43 or to will be in high demand in the years to come. university or – in the case of some Higher Apprenticeships – do both.43 This is absolutely the right strategy. We must stop describing technical and vocational learning as the Further education colleges also offer full bachelor degrees. Again, links with employers and a large Thisoption is absolutely for the “other the right 50%”: strategy. it is an Weoption must for stop all. describing technical and vocational learning as the pool of talented young people mean FE can play a larger role in the future of higher education in option for the “other 50%”: it is an option for all. There are signs that apprenticeships appeal to growing numbers of young people. Figures from the England. Our colleges can aspire to the high status enjoyed by their counterparts in Austria and Thereapprenticeship are signs that vacancies apprenticeships website show appeal that to between growing Augustnumbers and of Octoberyoung people. 2013, applicationsFigures from per the Germany, provided they offer outstanding learning linked to the needs of the modern economy. avacancypprenticeship ranged vacancies from 10:1 website to 27:1 show across that different between sectors August of andthe economy.October 2013 In the, applications case of business, per Which leaves us with universities. In this paper, I have drawn attention to the growing mismatch vacancyadministration ranged fromand law, 10:1 there to 27:1 were across 165,410 different applications sectors offor the 15,550 economy. apprenticeship In the case vacancies of business,44. between the degree programmes they provide and the jobs offered by today’s employers. administration and law, there were 165,410 applications for 15,550 apprenticeship vacancies44.

39 Ofsted (2013), Going in the right direction? Careers guidance in schools from September 2012 40 39 Ofsted http://www.speakers4schools.org/ (2013), Going in the right direction? Careers guidance in schools from September 2012 41 40 http://www.speakers4schools.org/ http://www.inspiringthefuture.org/ 42 41 http://www.inspiringthefuture.org/ The Scottish Government (2011), Career Information, Advice and Guidance in Scotland: A Framework for 42Service The Scottish Redesign Government and Improvement (2011), Career Information, Advice and Guidance in Scotland: A Framework for 43 Service Department Redesign for and Business, Improvement Innovation and Skills (2013), The Future of Apprenticeships in England: 38 “Michael Gove speaks about computing and education technology”, 2014: 43Implementation Department for PlanBusiness, Innovation and Skills (2013), The Future of Apprenticeships in England: 44 https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/michael-gove-speaks-about-computing-and-education-technology Implementation National Apprenticeship Plan Service (2014), Apprenticeship vacancies increase by a quarter year on year, 45 Skills Funding Agency (2014), Statistical First Release DS/SFR22, Further Education & Skills: Learner 44http://www.apprenticeships.org.uk/news National Apprenticeship Service (2014), Apprenticeship-media/latest-news/article398.aspx vacancies increase by a quarter year on year, Participation, Outcomes and Level of Highest Qualification Held

http://www.apprenticeships.org.uk/news-media/latest-news/article398.aspx 46 Musset P and Field S (2013), A Skills beyond School Review of England, OECD Publishing

Higher education: the mismatch continues ByBy thethe timetime ofof thethe 20012001 generalgeneral election,election, TonyTony BlairBlair waswas convincedconvinced wewe neededneeded thethe boldestboldest targettarget Reporting in 2011, Ofsted praised good practice in some secondary schools: Our training and education system responds well to demand from individuals. By and large, further yetyet:: and higher education is geared to what students ask for; and as we shall see in this section, this In outstanding secondary schools, students learnt how modern materials and new responsiveness has translated into remarkable growth in the number of people going on to higher ItIt isis timetime forfor anan historichistoric commitmentcommitment toto openopen higherhigher educationeducation toto halfhalf ofof allall yyoungoung peoplepeople technologies worked and how to design and make with them.15 20 education. beforebefore theythey areare 30.30.20 Unfortunately, this was not representative of schools as a whole: That would be fine if students were able to make fully- Even a robust economic recovery PoliciesPolicies asas ambitiousambitious asas thisthis frequentlyfrequently fail.fail. ManManyy peoplepeople thoughtthought thisthis oneone would:would: informed choices. But they’re not. They do not know how should not mask the need for Many teachers were not keeping pace with technological developments or expanding upon 50% higher education target doomed, says thinktank (Guardian, 14 July 200521) changes in how Europe develops and 50% higher education target doomed, says thinktank (Guardian, 14 July 200521) their initial training sufficiently to enable them to teach the technically demanding aspects many jobs there are in each sector of the economy, how things are changing, or whether a particular course will uses skills. No matter how well the 22 of the curriculum. The variation between the best and weakest provision was unacceptably DespiteDespite thethe gloomygloomy prognostications,prognostications, however,however, participationparticipation reareachedched 49.3%49.3% inin 2011/122011/1222.. AccordingAccording lead to sustained employment. economy performs, people need the wide. toto thethe OECD,OECD, moremore peoplepeople underunder 3030 achieveachieve firstfirst degreesdegrees inin thethe UKUK thanthan inin anyany otherother countrycountry inin thethe ‘right’ skills to enter and stay in the 23 world,world, withwith thethe solesole exceptionexception ofof PolandPoland23.. In around a third of the secondary schools, too little use was made of electronics, computer Those who make the case for the knowledge economy labour market. would say that it doesn’t really matter, particularly for aided design and manufacture (CAD and CAM) and control technology in the teaching of OnOn thethe faceface ofof it,it, thethe policypolicy hashas beenbeen aa remarkableremarkable success.success. HoweverHowever,, thethe expaexpansionnsion ofof higherhigher graduates. They argue that all degrees develop higher European Centre for the Development of education has been uneven, to say the least. Between 2002 and 2012, the number of first degrees D&T. Consequently, the take-up of GCSE courses in electronics and in systems and control Vocational Training (CEDEFOP), Roads to recovery: education has been uneven, to say the least. Between 2002 and 2012, the number of first degrees 16 order thinking skills which – given the fluidity of the labour was low, reflecting the national picture. three skill and labour market scenarios for 2025 awardedawarded grewgrew moremore thanthan 80%80% inin somesome disciplines,disciplines, butbut byby lessless thanthan aa quarterquarter inin othersothers –– seesee figurefigure 77.. market – matters more than the subject studied at As Ofsted found, very few students take GCSEs in the most high-tech aspects of Design and university. In short, any degree is a passport to success. FigureFigure 77:: percentagepercentage increaseincrease inin firstfirst degrdegreesees (selected(selected disciplines),disciplines), 20002000--0101 toto 20112011--1212 Technology: in 2010, just 2% of all entries were in the systems and control specialism. Food tech, graphic products and textiles accounted for 56% of all entries – see Figure 6. Sadly, that is no longer true. %% changechange Figure 6: Design and Technology GCSE entries, 201017 The growth in higher education Physical sciences As Secretary of State for Education, I actively promoted the expansion of higher education in this Physical sciences Engineering and technology Engineering and technology country. I was convinced that we would need many more graduates if we were to keep pace with Computer science Computer science our international competitors and build the wealth of the nation. All first degrees GCSE D&T Entries, 2010 (thousands) All first degrees Social, economic & political studies Social, economic & political studies At the start of the 1980s, one in eight 18-year-olds went into higher education. By 1990, it was one Law Law in five. Humanities Humanities Business and administrative studies Business and administrative studies 13% In 1999, the Higher Education Careers Service Unit (HECSU) published the outcomes of a large-scale Biological sciences Resistant materials 18 Biological sciences 2% 25% study of people who graduated from university in 1995 . Back then – nearly 20 years ago – the Subjects allied to medicine Food technology Subjects allied to medicine 4% Mass communication & documentation future looked rosy for almost all new graduates. By late 1997, 30 months after graduating: Mass communication & documentation Graphic products 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 … only 2 per cent of economically active graduates [were] unemployed and less than 10 per 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 14% Textiles technology cent of graduates [were] in a non-graduate occupation. Most graduates move[d] into work Electronic products with relative ease and most graduates [found] work in traditional graduate or graduate track DelvingDelving aa littlelittle deeperdeeper intointo somesome ofof thesethese broadbroad subjectsubject areas,areas, nearlynearly twotwo thirdsthirds (62%)(62%) ofof degreesdegrees Systems and control awarded in mass communications and documentation were for media studies. Nursing accounts for 23% occupations. awarded in mass communications and documentation were for media studies. Nursing accounts for 19% Other 49%49% ofof degreesdegrees inin thethe categorycategory “subjects“subjects alliedallied toto medicine”.medicine”. InIn thethe biologicalbiological sciences,sciences, onlyonly 14%14% ofof Research also showed that on average, graduates earned more than people with lower levels of firstfirst degreesdegrees werewere forfor biolbiologyogy purepure andand simple,simple, aa figurefigure dwarfeddwarfed byby psychologypsychology (41%)(41%) andand sportssports qualification19. sciencescience (27%).(27%). There seemed no reason to hold back. Evidence of graduate success and a belief in the knowledge

20 2001 Labour Party General Election Manifesto, Ambitions for Britain, economy created an almost unchallenged belief that the only way was up. 20 2001 Labour Party General Election Manifesto, Ambitions for Britain, http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/e01/man/lab/lab01.htm Accessed 24 August 2013 http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/e01/man/lab/lab01.htm Accessed 24 August 2013 21 http://www.theguardian.com/education/2005/jul/14/highereducation.accesstouniversity Accessed 24 21 http://www.theguardian.com/education/2005/jul/14/highereducation.accesstouniversity Accessed 24 August 2013 18 August 2013 Elias, P., K. Purcell, A. McKnight and J. Pitcher (1999). Moving On: graduate careers three years after 22 Department for Business, Innovation & Skills and Office for National Statistics, Participation Rates in Higher 22 Department for Business, Innovation & Skills and Office for National Statistics, Participation Rates in Higher graduation. Manchester: Higher Education Careers Services Unit Education: Academic Years 2006/07 – 2011/12 (Provisional), 24 April 2013 19 See, for example, Walker I and Zhu Y (2013), The Impact of University Degrees on the Lifecycle of Earnings, Education: Academic Years 2006/07 – 2011/12 (Provisional), 24 April 2013 15 Ofsted (2011), Meeting technological challenges? Design and technology in schools 2007–10 23 OECD (2013), Education at a Glance 2013: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing. BIS Research Paper 112. 23 OECD (2013), Education at a Glance 2013: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing. 16 ibid http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eag-2013-en 17 http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eag-2013-en ibid

Careers information, advice and guidance That is not meant to be a blanket criticism. Many faculties CareersSecondary information, schools and colleges advice have and a statutory guidance duty to provide young people with access to Given this level of demand, we need to boost the number of apprenticeships offered by employers. A comprehensive strategy to reduce have excellent links with employers and see graduate Secondaryimpartial information,schools and collegesadvice and have guidance. a statutory However, duty to not provide all schools young were people prepared with access for this to new The government’s Apprenticeship Grant for Employers Scheme (AGE) shows great potential, having skills mismatches requires first that employability as a top priority. Nor do I take a purely impartialresponsibility information, when it advicewas introduced, and guidance. and OfstedHowever, reported not all aschools mixed werepicture prepared when they for cathisrried new out a supported nearly 50,000 new apprenticeship places for 16-24 year olds between February 2012 and the quality of education is secured 45 utilitarian view of higher education. Students can and responsibilitysurvey of 60 schools:when it was introduced, and Ofsted reported a mixed picture when they carried out a October 2013 . It is vital that we continue to promote apprenticeships to employers of all sizes, and participation raised, up until the should choose subjects they are passionate about, not survey of 60 schools: particularly those in sectors facing skills shortages. end of the secondary level and Of the 60 schools visited for this survey, only 12 had ensured that all students received just the subjects most directly connected to the world of especially in developing economies. Ofsufficient the 60 schools information visited to for consider this survey, a wide only breadth 12 had of ensured career possibilities. that all students39 received While intermediate and advanced apprenticeships will continue to attract the largest numbers, work. Second, it demands a diversification sufficient information to consider a wide breadth of career possibilities.39 Higher Apprenticeships have enormous potential to raise the status and reputation of approach to providing education, I have no doubt the situation will improve over time, especially if more employers are invited into apprenticeships as a whole. Designed as a work-based route to higher qualifications, they have a But there is much room for improvement. The Key 40 41 47 recognizing that both medium skills I schoolhave no to doubt give career the situation talks. Initiatives will improve such over as Speakers time, es peciallyfor Schools if more and employers Inspiring arethe invitedFuture into are strong appeal to people who enjoy learning by doing. As Matthew Hancock says, they combine the Information Set (KIS) is a vital step, providing hard data 40 41 (provided through technical and schoolfree services to give thatcareer enable talks. schools Initiatives to invitesuch asvolunteers Speakers tofor talk Schools about theirand Inspiring careers. theSchools Future can alsoare benefits of higher education and learning at work. The Chancellor, George Osborne, committed a to help students choose courses. This includes vocational education) and high skills freeguide services young that people enable to a schools plethora to of invite web volunteerssites and on to-line talk careers about their services. careers. Schools can also further £40 million over two years in his 2013 Autumn Statement, which will support the continued information about the destinations of leavers – the type (provided through tertiary guide young people to a plethora of web sites and on-line careers services. expansion of this remarkable programme. and nature of the jobs they do, their relative rates of However, we cannot expect teachers to be careers experts. It is essential for young people to have employment, and so on. Supported by effective and education) are required in the labour However, we cannot expect teachers to be careers experts. It is essential for young people to have access to careers specialists with a full and up to date understanding of the labour market and This is one way of boosting the take-up of work-related qualifications at or immediately below impartial careers advice, the KIS will make it easier for market and for economic growth. access to careers specialists with a full and up to date understanding of the labour market and pathways to success. In Scotland, careers guidance is recognised as ‘a distinct, defined and specialist degree level. The OECD noted that: students to make effective choices in the years to come. And third, it implies improving the 42 pathwaysprofession to which success. demands In Scotland, a unique careers set ofguidance core skills is recognised’ . We must as give ‘a distinct, the profession defined equaland specialist relevance of education and training 42 professionrecognition which in England. demands a unique set of core skills’ . We must give the profession equal England has relatively little vocational provision at postsecondary level relative to many In addition, universities must do more to engage with for the labour market through recognition in England. other countries, and relative to potential demand, leading to a shortage of mid-level skills employers. Good practice is often to be found in overtly strengthened channels of This is essential if young people are to make sound choices at 14, 16 and 18. They must have access ….There are ten times as many students enrolled in bachelor programmes than in vocational departments, such as medicine and communication between education Thisto the is essential full facts if about young higher peop leeducation, are to make vocational sound choices courses at and 14, apprenticeships, 16 and 18. They andmust the have chance access to foundation degrees… while other postsecondary programmes such as higher national engineering, where there are long-standing connections and workplace actors, as well as totalk the about full facts their about options higher with education, someone trainedvocational to providecourses impartialand apprenticeships, advice. and the chance to certificates and diplomas are a very small and declining element of postsecondary between academics and employers. It is more rarely public-private partnerships. talk about their options with someone trained to provide impartial advice. education.46 Learning beyond school found in arts and social science faculties. Finding out what employers want from new graduates does not World Economic Forum (2014), Building Social LearningMatthew Hancock, beyond Minister school for Skills and Enterprise, has summed up his policy in one sentence: This presents a golden opportunity for our further education colleges. Through their links with local Partnerships for Better Skills and Better Jobs compromise academic freedom, but it does reduce the Matthew Hancock, Minister for Skills and Enterprise, has summed up his policy in one sentence: and regional employers, they are perfectly placed to reinvigorate programmes such as HNCs, HNDs Our goal is for it to become the norm for young people to go into an Apprenticeship or to risks of unemployment and under-employment. and foundation degrees and help young people acquire the skills, knowledge and qualifications that Ouruniversity goal is foror –it in to the become case of the some norm Higher for young Apprenticeships people to go – intodo both. an Apprenticeship43 or to will be in high demand in the years to come. The skills mismatch must be tackled, starting in primary school and continuing into adulthood. The university or – in the case of some Higher Apprenticeships – do both.43 This is absolutely the right strategy. We must stop describing technical and vocational learning as the future must include: Further education colleges also offer full bachelor degrees. Again, links with employers and a large Thisoption is absolutely for the “other the right 50%”: strategy. it is an Weoption must for stop all. describing technical and vocational learning as the pool of talented young people mean FE can play a larger role in the future of higher education in  option for the “other 50%”: it is an option for all. a greater role for employers in education – at all levels from primary to HE There are signs that apprenticeships appeal to growing numbers of young people. Figures from the England. Our colleges can aspire to the high status enjoyed by their counterparts in Austria and  impartial advice and guidance for all young people at school and college Thereapprenticeship are signs that vacancies apprenticeships website show appeal that to between growing Augustnumbers and of Octoberyoung people. 2013, applicationsFigures from per the Germany, provided they offer outstanding learning linked to the needs of the modern economy.  more opportunities for hands-on learning in schools avacancypprenticeship ranged vacancies from 10:1 website to 27:1 show across that different between sectors August of andthe economy.October 2013 In the, applications case of business, per  high quality technical and vocational pathways from 14 Which leaves us with universities. In this paper, I have drawn attention to the growing mismatch vacancyadministration ranged fromand law, 10:1 there to 27:1 were across 165,410 different applications sectors offor the 15,550 economy. apprenticeship In the case vacancies of business,44.  more apprenticeship places for young people 44 between the degree programmes they provide and the jobs offered by today’s employers. administration and law, there were 165,410 applications for 15,550 apprenticeship vacancies .  reinvigorated HNC, HND and foundation degree programmes, led by further education

colleges

 better information for young people about the vast range of choice in higher education

39 Ofsted (2013), Going in the right direction? Careers guidance in schools from September 2012 If this happens, there will be a fundamental shift in our education system, with far greater emphasis 40 39 Ofsted http://www.speakers4schools.org/ (2013), Going in the right direction? Careers guidance in schools from September 2012 41 on technical and vocational opportunities and a reduction in the number of people taking bachelors’ 40 http://www.speakers4schools.org/ http://www.inspiringthefuture.org/ 42 41 http://www.inspiringthefuture.org/ The Scottish Government (2011), Career Information, Advice and Guidance in Scotland: A Framework for degrees. Some subjects will be affected more than others; indeed, reductions in some disciplines will 42Service The Scottish Redesign Government and Improvement (2011), Career Information, Advice and Guidance in Scotland: A Framework for be partially offset by growth in others. This will be a challenge, but we must be prepared to take it 43 Service Department Redesign for and Business, Improvement Innovation and Skills (2013), The Future of Apprenticeships in England: on. 43Implementation Department for PlanBusiness, Innovation and Skills (2013), The Future of Apprenticeships in England: 44 Implementation National Apprenticeship Plan Service (2014), Apprenticeship vacancies increase by a quarter year on year, 45 Skills Funding Agency (2014), Statistical First Release DS/SFR22, Further Education & Skills: Learner 44http://www.apprenticeships.org.uk/news National Apprenticeship Service (2014), Apprenticeship-media/latest-news/article398.aspx vacancies increase by a quarter year on year, Participation, Outcomes and Level of Highest Qualification Held 47 http://www.apprenticeships.org.uk/news-media/latest-news/article398.aspx 46 Musset P and Field S (2013), A Skills beyond School Review of England, OECD Publishing https://unistats.direct.gov.uk/find-out-more/key-information-set/

There are also signs that the graduate premium is shrinking over time. In a report published by the Apprenticeships: not yet equal Where do we go from here? Modern Apprenticeships have been available at levels 2 and 3 since the 1990s. Originally limited to Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, Ian Walker and Yu Zhu say: We must give children and young people a far better understanding of the world of work, starting at young people, they are now open to people of all ages. Our suspicion is that a smaller graduate earnings premium may have been driven by the an early age. 31 The numbers show an impressive rate of growth in recent years. rapid and large expansion in the supply of graduates that occurred in the early 1990s. This is not about choosing a career by the age of seven, ten or even thirteen – though some children In addition, Futuretrack found that graduate salaries fell by an average of 21.9% between 2003 and Table 6: apprenticeship starts, 2002/03 to 2011/12 of that age do already have very clear ambitions. No, it is about opening their eyes to the many 2011; for arts graduates, salaries fell by nearly a third (32.9%). careers that they do not see on TV or in their daily lives. Intermediate apprenticeships (level 2) Advanced apprenticeships (level 3) Age 16-18 Age 19-24 Age 25+ Age 16-18 Age 19-24 Age 25+ Quality apprenticeships enable More recently, the Office of National Statistics compared Links with employers 2002/03 74,400 44,800 nil 23,000 25,400 Nil employers to offer innovative the earnings of 12 million employed graduates and 2.5 I agree with the head of Ofsted, Sir Michael Wilshaw, who has called for employers to get more 2011/12 95,400 101,700 131,900 34,100 58,000 95,700 training that responds to their million people who completed apprenticeships32. closely involved with schools, colleges and providers. Growth 28% 127% - 48% 128% - More employers should be in immediate needs and is associated Graduates do earn more, on average, than former Sector snapshot The Education and Employers Taskforce asked 19-24 year schools, colleges and providers, with higher productivity, better apprentices: £15.18 per hour against £11.10 (gross Growth has been particularly strong in two sectors: business, administration and law; and health, olds to recall contacts with employers in their time at advising on the curriculum and opportunities for sustained median earnings). However, there is a considerable care and public services. In these two sectors, numbers have grown nearly five-foldIn in agriculture, ten years. forestry In and fishing, 55% of people are over 45 years of age, compared with 38% across the economy as a whole. Theschool. number They of individuals were also asked about their current providing young people with the employment, better working overlap between the wage ranges achieved by graduates 2011/12, 164,830 people started an apprenticeship in business, administration and law – almost in the sector aged 60 and over increased from 57,000employment. in 2002 to 84,000 There in was a significant correlation between direct experience of work. conditions and higher skill transfer and apprentices. More than a quarter of graduate three times as many as started an engineering apprenticeship (59,480). 2010. Given this profile, it is not surprising that replacement demand is the number of contacts with employers at school and within and across sectors. employees (27%) earn less than £11.10 per hour, the forecast to be very high in the decade to 2020. The Sector Skills Council, 34 In addition, apprenticeships are chosen by only a tiny percentage of 16-18 year olds. success in the labour market. Sir Michael Wilshaw average hourly wage earned by former apprentices. Lantra, forecasts that 212,000 people will be needed to replace workers who World Economic Forum (2014), Building Social leave the industry – a remarkable figure, considering the popular image of I am convinced that career connections should start in “Unseen Children” speech, 20 June 2013 Partnerships for Better Skills and Better Jobs Other evidence suggests that some apprentices will earn Table 7: percentage of each age group participating in apprenticeships at the endagriculture of 2012 as a declining industry. primary school and continue throughout secondary almost as much as an average graduate over their Source: Breuer Z (2012), Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing: Sector Skills Assessment 2012. UKCES Intermediate apprenticeships (L2) Advanced apprenticeships (L3) education. Career talks by senior, middle and junior staff – including apprentices – should be the working lives. In 2012, a report for Skandia33 included the following estimates of average lifetime Age 16 2.8% 1.1% norm in every school. Visits should be arranged to local businesses, further education colleges, earnings: Age 17 4.7% 2.3% training providers and universities. We must widen horizons for all our young people. Age 18 4.8% 3.8%  Apprenticeship in Construction: £1,503,726 We must also involve employers in the design and delivery of the curriculum. A report commissioned  Apprenticeship in Health Care, Public Services & Care: £1,494,547 We clearly have a long way to go. by the Edge Foundation characterised most schools’ links with employers as:  A degree (average): £1,611,551 Sector snapshot … superficial – not uncommon, but low volume and largely focused on ‘pupil progression’ – In short, graduates do not automatically earn more than apprentices. There is already considerable The health, care and social work sector is doubly affected that is, introducing pupils to the world of work. Only a minority of schools have routinely overlap between the two groups, and trends in the labour market suggest the overlap will get by demographic change. Not engaged employers in supporting teaching directly or through providing teaching materials bigger, not smaller, in the coming decade. only is there a need to replace or support to senior managers.35 people leaving the workforce, Sector snapshot but Britain’s ageing population Hospitality andThis tourism stands is ain huge contrast to employer links with University Technical Colleges, characterised as is leading to a huge increase in industry spanning“profound” hotels, engagement: caring occupations. Between restaurants, bars, travel agencies, 2010 and 2020 there are event planning, tourThe operators pattern and of employer engagement found in UTCs is: forecast to be 695,000 leisure facilities. Taking account of vacancies for caring and other staff turnover and net growth in service level jobs: within this broad – stretching across a wide range of activities and involving both staff and pupils employment, the industry needs to total, entirely new jobs will  deep – engaging individual employers in multiple activities relevant to young people recruit an average of 135,000 amount to 125,000 vacancies, people every year between throughnow and their school careers and replacement demand 2020.  embedded – an accepted part of the UTC culture, regularly encountered by students accounts for 570,000. 36 Source: Williams M, Luanaigh A and Garrettand Rstaff alike. Source: Tamkin P, Behling F, Jones R and 31 (2012), Sector Skills Insights: Tourism. UKCES BIS Research Paper 112, op cit Garrett R (2012), Sector Skills Insights: 32 http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/business-transparency/freedom-of-information/what-can-i- Health and Social Care. UKCES 34 ibid request/published-ad-hoc-data/labour/december-2013/graduates-and-non-graduates-with-an-apprenticeship.xls 35 Mann A and Virk B (2013), Profound employer engagement in education: What it is and options for scaling it 33 First Steps to Wealth: a study of career and earning opportunities for young Britons, January 2012. Report up. Report produced by the Education and Employers Taskforce for the Edge Foundation. published by Skandia, based on research by CoreData Research UK. 36 ibid http://www2.skandia.co.uk/Documents/Literature%20Library/212-5003-first-steps-to-wealth.pdf 21

That is not meant to be a blanket criticism. Many faculties Given this level of demand, we need to boost the number of apprenticeships offered by employers. A comprehensive strategy to reduce have excellent links with employers and see graduate The government’s Apprenticeship Grant for Employers Scheme (AGE) shows great potential, having skills mismatches requires first that employability as a top priority. Nor do I take a purely supported nearly 50,000 new apprenticeship places for 16-24 year olds between February 2012 and the quality of education is secured 45 utilitarian view of higher education. Students can and October 2013 . It is vital that we continue to promote apprenticeships to employers of all sizes, and participation raised, up until the should choose subjects they are passionate about, not particularly those in sectors facing skills shortages. end of the secondary level and just the subjects most directly connected to the world of especially in developing economies. While intermediate and advanced apprenticeships will continue to attract the largest numbers, work. Second, it demands a diversification Higher Apprenticeships have enormous potential to raise the status and reputation of approach to providing education, apprenticeships as a whole. Designed as a work-based route to higher qualifications, they have a But there is much room for improvement. The Key 47 recognizing that both medium skills strong appeal to people who enjoy learning by doing. As Matthew Hancock says, they combine the Information Set (KIS) is a vital step, providing hard data (provided through technical and benefits of higher education and learning at work. The Chancellor, George Osborne, committed a to help students choose courses. This includes vocational education) and high skills further £40 million over two years in his 2013 Autumn Statement, which will support the continued information about the destinations of leavers – the type (provided through tertiary expansion of this remarkable programme. and nature of the jobs they do, their relative rates of employment, and so on. Supported by effective and education) are required in the labour This is one way of boosting the take-up of work-related qualifications at or immediately below impartial careers advice, the KIS will make it easier for market and for economic growth. degree level. The OECD noted that: students to make effective choices in the years to come. And third, it implies improving the relevance of education and training England has relatively little vocational provision at postsecondary level relative to many In addition, universities must do more to engage with for the labour market through other countries, and relative to potential demand, leading to a shortage of mid-level skills employers. Good practice is often to be found in overtly strengthened channels of ….There are ten times as many students enrolled in bachelor programmes than in vocational departments, such as medicine and communication between education foundation degrees… while other postsecondary programmes such as higher national engineering, where there are long-standing connections and workplace actors, as well as certificates and diplomas are a very small and declining element of postsecondary between academics and employers. It is more rarely public-private partnerships. education.46 found in arts and social science faculties. Finding out what employers want from new graduates does not World Economic Forum (2014), Building Social This presents a golden opportunity for our further education colleges. Through their links with local Partnerships for Better Skills and Better Jobs compromise academic freedom, but it does reduce the and regional employers, they are perfectly placed to reinvigorate programmes such as HNCs, HNDs risks of unemployment and under-employment. and foundation degrees and help young people acquire the skills, knowledge and qualifications that will be in high demand in the years to come. The skills mismatch must be tackled, starting in primary school and continuing into adulthood. The future must include: Further education colleges also offer full bachelor degrees. Again, links with employers and a large pool of talented young people mean FE can play a larger role in the future of higher education in  a greater role for employers in education – at all levels from primary to HE England. Our colleges can aspire to the high status enjoyed by their counterparts in Austria and  impartial advice and guidance for all young people at school and college Germany, provided they offer outstanding learning linked to the needs of the modern economy.  more opportunities for hands-on learning in schools  high quality technical and vocational pathways from 14 Which leaves us with universities. In this paper, I have drawn attention to the growing mismatch  more apprenticeship places for young people between the degree programmes they provide and the jobs offered by today’s employers.  reinvigorated HNC, HND and foundation degree programmes, led by further education colleges  better information for young people about the vast range of choice in higher education

If this happens, there will be a fundamental shift in our education system, with far greater emphasis on technical and vocational opportunities and a reduction in the number of people taking bachelors’ degrees. Some subjects will be affected more than others; indeed, reductions in some disciplines will be partially offset by growth in others. This will be a challenge, but we must be prepared to take it on.

45 Skills Funding Agency (2014), Statistical First Release DS/SFR22, Further Education & Skills: Learner

Participation, Outcomes and Level of Highest Qualification Held 47 46 Musset P and Field S (2013), A Skills beyond School Review of England, OECD Publishing https://unistats.direct.gov.uk/find-out-more/key-information-set/

Apprenticeships: not yet equal Where do we go from here? At UTCs, employers are involved in designing and delivering the curriculum – particularly through Modern Apprenticeships have been available at levels 2 and 3 since the 1990s. Originally limited to We must give children and young people a far better understanding of the world of work, starting at real-world curriculum projects – as well as governance, young people, they are now open to people of all ages. Although governments have often an early age. teacher support and a raft of activities ranging from talked of the importance of skills, The numbers show an impressive rate of growth in recent years. mentoring to work placements. This is not about choosing a career by the age of seven, ten or even thirteen – though some children skills policy has in practice often been created in isolation from Table 6: apprenticeship starts, 2002/03 to 2011/12 of that age do already have very clear ambitions. No, it is about opening their eyes to the many My experience of UTCs is that getting employers careers that they do not see on TV or in their daily lives. interested is not especially difficult. They want to recruit industrial policy, with too few Intermediate apprenticeships (level 2) Advanced apprenticeships (level 3) people with the right skills, knowledge and personal connections between education and Age 16-18 Age 19-24 Age 25+ Age 16-18 Age 19-24 Age 25+ Links with employers attributes. They have a vested interest in helping schools the labour market… Vocational 2002/03 74,400 44,800 nil 23,000 25,400 Nil I agree with the head of Ofsted, Sir Michael Wilshaw, who has called for employers to get more education and training should be achieve those goals. 2011/12 95,400 101,700 131,900 34,100 58,000 95,700 closely involved with schools, colleges and providers. developed in the wider context of Growth 28% 127% - 48% 128% - More employers should be in However, they need to be asked. We cannot expect busy labour market and economic policy, Sector snapshot The Education and Employers Taskforce asked 19-24 year people to get involved unless they have a clear idea of Growth has been particularly strong in two sectors: business, administration and law; and health, schools, colleges and providers, and should seek to meet the olds to recall contacts with employers in their time at advising on the curriculum and what schools and young people need from them. The onus different interests of employers, care and public services. In these two sectors, numbers have grown nearly five-foldIn in agriculture, ten years. forestry In and fishing, 55% of people are over 45 years of age, school. They were also asked about their current therefore rests with schools to start the conversation. 2011/12, 164,830 people started an apprenticeship in business, administration andcompared law – almost with 38% across the economy as a whole. The number of individuals providing young people with the learners and the state. in the sector aged 60 and over increased from 57,000employment. in 2002 to 84,000 There in was a significant correlation between three times as many as started an engineering apprenticeship (59,480). direct experience of work. 2010. Given this profile, it is not surprising that replacementthe number demand of is contacts with employers at school and Although employers can be involved in every school Labour Party Skills Taskforce (the Husbands Review): Talent Matters – why England needs a forecast to be very high in the decade to 2020. The Sector Skills Council, 34 Sir Michael Wilshaw subject, the obvious starting point should be Design and In addition, apprenticeships are chosen by only a tiny percentage of 16-18 year olds. success in the labour market. new approach to skills, 2013 Lantra, forecasts that 212,000 people will be needed to replace workers who Technology (D&T). leave the industry – a remarkable figure, considering the popular image of I am convinced that career connections should start in “Unseen Children” speech, 20 June 2013 Table 7: percentage of each age group participating in apprenticeships at the endagriculture of 2012 as a declining industry. primary school and continue throughout secondary I am delighted that the purpose of D&T has been set out so clearly in the revised National Source: Breuer Z (2012), Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing: Sector Skills Assessment 2012. UKCES Intermediate apprenticeships (L2) Advanced apprenticeships (L3) education. Career talks by senior, middle and junior staff – including apprentices – should be the Curriculum: Age 16 2.8% 1.1% norm in every school. Visits should be arranged to local businesses, further education colleges, Design and technology is an inspiring, rigorous and practical subject. Using creativity and Age 17 4.7% 2.3% training providers and universities. We must widen horizons for all our young people. Age 18 4.8% 3.8% imagination, pupils design and make products that solve real and relevant problems within a We must also involve employers in the design and delivery of the curriculum. A report commissioned variety of contexts, considering their own and others’ needs, wants and values. They acquire We clearly have a long way to go. a broad range of subject knowledge and draw on disciplines such as mathematics, science, by the Edge Foundation characterised most schools’ links with employers as: Sector snapshot engineering, computing and art. Pupils learn how to take risks, becoming resourceful, … superficial – not uncommon, but low volume and largely focused on ‘pupil progression’ – The health, care and social innovative, enterprising and capable citizens. Through the evaluation of past and present work sector is doubly affected that is, introducing pupils to the world of work. Only a minority of schools have routinely design and technology, they develop a critical understanding of its impact on daily life and by demographic change. Not engaged employers in supporting teaching directly or through providing teaching materials the wider world.37 only is there a need to replace or support to senior managers.35 people leaving the workforce, Sector snapshot D&T should be taught in a relevant context throughout Key Stages 1-3, including ‘industrial contexts, but Britain’s ageing population Hospitality andThis tourism stands is ain huge contrast to employer links with University Technical Colleges, characterised as such as engineering, manufacturing, construction, food, energy, agriculture (including horticulture) is leading to a huge increase in industry spanning“profound” hotels, engagement: caring occupations. Between and fashion.’ This creates the perfect platform for deeper employer engagement in the curriculum. restaurants, bars, travel agencies, 2010 and 2020 there are event planning, tourThe operators pattern and of employer engagement found in UTCs is: forecast to be 695,000 I am pleased, too, that computer science has been introduced into the National Curriculum. Michael leisure facilities. Taking account of vacancies for caring and other Gove has shown vision and leadership in his work with partners such as Microsoft, Google and the staff turnover and net growth in service level jobs: within this broad – stretching across a wide range of activities and involving both staff and pupils employment, the industry needs to British Computer Society, recognising the importance of modern technology to our future economic total, entirely new jobs will  deep – engaging individual employers in multiple activities relevant to young people recruit an average of 135,000 success. As he said in a recent speech: amount to 125,000 vacancies, people every year between throughnow and their school careers and replacement demand 2020.  embedded – an accepted part of the UTC culture, regularly encountered by students Our new curriculum teaches children computer science, information technology, and digital accounts for 570,000. 36 Source: Williams M, Luanaigh A and Garrettand Rstaff alike. literacy: teaching them how to code, and how to create their own programs; not just how to Source: Tamkin P, Behling F, Jones R and (2012), Sector Skills Insights: Tourism. UKCES Garrett R (2012), Sector Skills Insights: work a computer; but how a computer works, and how to make it work for you. Health and Social Care. UKCES 34 ibid 35 Mann A and Virk B (2013), Profound employer engagement in education: What it is and options for scaling it up. Report produced by the Education and Employers Taskforce for the Edge Foundation. 37 Department for Education (2013), The National Curriculum in England: Framework Document 36 ibid 22

That is not meant to be a blanket criticism. Many faculties Recommendations A comprehensive strategy to reduce have excellent links with employers and see graduate skills mismatches requires first that employability as a top priority. Nor do I take a purely the quality of education is secured utilitarian view of higher education. Students can and More 14-18 specialist colleges and participation raised, up until the should choose subjects they are passionate about, not We need more and better technical and vocational pathways. Practical learning should be a part of every end of the secondary level and child’s experience at school, and they should be free to specialise in hands-on subjects from the age of 14. just the subjects most directly connected to the world of especially in developing economies. work. Second, it demands a diversification University Technical Colleges show the way. Combining rigorous academic study with stretching technical qualifications, they boost the achievement and prospects of students in science, engineering and But there is much room for improvement. The Key approach to providing education, technology and create pathways to apprenticeships, higher education and long-term careers. Information Set (KIS)47 is a vital step, providing hard data recognizing that both medium skills to help students choose courses. This includes (provided through technical and The next step must be to apply the UTC ethos to subjects other than science, engineering and technology. information about the destinations of leavers – the type vocational education) and high skills Career Colleges, set up by further education colleges, will provide hands-on learning from 14 up. and nature of the jobs they do, their relative rates of (provided through tertiary employment, and so on. Supported by effective and education) are required in the labour impartial careers advice, the KIS will make it easier for market and for economic growth. Close links between education and local employers students to make effective choices in the years to come. And third, it implies improving the We must strengthen links between employers and all forms of education, so the curriculum better relevance of education and training prepares young people for the future. In addition, universities must do more to engage with for the labour market through Young people need direct experience of the world of work while still at school, through visits, talks, employers. Good practice is often to be found in overtly strengthened channels of meetings and placements. vocational departments, such as medicine and communication between education engineering, where there are long-standing connections and workplace actors, as well as We must stop describing technical and vocational learning as the option for the “other 50%”: it is an between academics and employers. It is more rarely public-private partnerships. option for all. found in arts and social science faculties. Finding out what employers want from new graduates does not World Economic Forum (2014), Building Social Apprenticeships must be an option of choice for most school and college leavers, including those who plan Partnerships for Better Skills and Better Jobs compromise academic freedom, but it does reduce the to go on to higher education later. risks of unemployment and under-employment. Labour market information must become required reading for politicians, planners and educators alike. The skills mismatch must be tackled, starting in primary school and continuing into adulthood. The future must include: Essential information  a greater role for employers in education – at all levels from primary to HE Young people, parents and teachers need to know about the jobs available today and tomorrow. Children  impartial advice and guidance for all young people at school and college and young people should meet and visit people from a range of careers, starting in primary school.  more opportunities for hands-on learning in schools Young people must have information about career prospects before they choose subjects and courses.  high quality technical and vocational pathways from 14 This applies both at school and beyond. It is important for all young people, whether they aim for  more apprenticeship places for young people vocational pathways, apprenticeships, higher education or a combination of all three.  reinvigorated HNC, HND and foundation degree programmes, led by further education colleges  better information for young people about the vast range of choice in higher education New targets We must change the way we judge the success of schools, colleges and universities. Qualifications are not If this happens, there will be a fundamental shift in our education system, with far greater emphasis enough. What matters is what becomes of students when they leave. Taking a lead from UTCs, the aim on technical and vocational opportunities and a reduction in the number of people taking bachelors’ must be no NEETs. degrees. Some subjects will be affected more than others; indeed, reductions in some disciplines will be partially offset by growth in others. This will be a challenge, but we must be prepared to take it Further education colleges must strengthen post-16 pathways to level 3, 4 and beyond. They can aspire to on. the same high status as technical colleges in Austria and Germany provided they offer outstanding learning linked to the needs of the modern economy.

47 https://unistats.direct.gov.uk/find-out-more/key-information-set/

Above all, it isAbove striking all, that it is engineering,striking that engineering,technology, computertechnology science, computer and physicalscience andsciences physical all grew sciences all grew Sports science 17.4 by less than aby quarter less than when a quarter the growth when rate the forgrowth all first rate degrees for all firstwas degrees60%. was 60%. Marketing 15.9 Politics 15.4 A future lessA future rosy less rosy Languages 15.2 In the introductionIn the introductionto this report, to I thisquoted report, Royal I quoted Academy Royal Academy All employed graduates 13.7 of Engineeringof research:Engineering there research: is a dramatic there is shortf a dramaticall in the shortf Otherall in the countries Other face countries a similar face a similar number of science,number engineering of science, andengineering technology and graduates technology graduateschallenge challenge Business and management studies 13.7 entering UK employment.entering UK employment. Looking at trends Looking over at thetrends last over the last Chemistry 13.1 The thought that a university degree decade, we startdecade, to understand we start to whyunderstand and how why this and has how this has The thought that a university degree Finance and accountancy 11.3 is the ticket to instant career success happened. happened. is the ticket to instant career success Computer science and IT 10.5 is creating a isbacklash creating in a Canada. backlash We in Canada. We Maths 9.3 Furthermore,Furthermore, it is no longer it easyis no for longer graduates easy for to graduates find to findhave more BAshave than more the BAs market than will the market will Physics 9.0 good jobs, partgoodicularly jobs ,if part theyicularly have studiedif they have certain studied certainbear, a growingbear, shortage a growing of shortage of Electrical and electronic engineering 8.8 subjects. Six subjects.months after Six months graduating, after many graduating, end up many end uppractical skills,practical and an skills, army andof kids an army of kids Economics 7.9 working in shops,working bars in and shops, restaurants. bars and restaurants. burdened withburdened huge debt with loads huge after debt loads after spending upwardspending of seven upward years of inseven years in Architecture and building 7.9 Table 4 makesTable the 4point makes that the some point graduates that some are graduates more are more post-secondarypost education.-secondary education. Mechanical engineering 5.6 likely than others to find themselves in this situation. At likely than others to find themselves in this situation. At Civil engineering 4.7 one end of thonee spectrum, end of th moree spectrum, than one more in every than onefour in fine every four“Streamlining fine Credentials”,“Streamlining Vancouver Credentials”, Sun, 20 Vancouver Sun, 20 February 2013 arts and mediaarts studies and media graduates studies end graduates up in bars, end shops up in bars, shops February 2013 To be fair, employment six months after graduating may not be a good indication of longer-term and restaurants.and restaurants.Among mechanical Among and mechanical civil engineers, and civil engineers, prospects. With this in mind, it is instructive to look at what graduates are doing 30 months after the figure is fewerthe figure than is one fewer in seventeen. than one in seventeen. graduating, based on seminal research by HECSU and the University of Warwick, Futuretrack.

Recommendations

More 14-18 specialist colleges We need more and better technical and vocational pathways. Practical learning should be a part of every child’s experience at school, and they should be free to specialise in hands-on subjects from the age of 14.

The next step must be to apply the UTC ethos to subjects other than science, engineering and technology. Career Colleges, set up by further education colleges, will provide hands-on learning from 14 up.

Close links between education and local employers We must strengthen links between employers and all forms of education, so the curriculum better prepares young people for the future.

Young people need direct experience of the world of work while still at school, through visits, talks, meetings and placements.

We must stop describing technical and vocational learning as the option for the “other 50%”: it is an option for all.

Apprenticeships must be an option of choice for most school and college leavers, including those who plan to go on to higher education later.

Labour market information must become required reading for politicians, planners and educators alike.

Essential information Young people, parents and teachers need to know about the jobs available today and tomorrow. Children and young people should meet and visit people from a range of careers, starting in primary school.

Young people must have information about career prospects before they choose subjects and courses. This applies both at school and beyond. It is important for all young people, whether they aim for vocational pathways, apprenticeships, higher education or a combination of all three.

New targets We must change the way we judge the success of schools, colleges and universities. Qualifications are not enough. What matters is what becomes of students when they leave. Taking a lead from UTCs, the aim must be no NEETs.

Further education colleges must strengthen post-16 pathways to level 3, 4 and beyond. They can aspire to the same high status as technical colleges in Austria and Germany provided they offer outstanding learning linked to the needs of the modern economy.

We have more over-qualified workers than any OECD country other than Table 5: employment status of graduates 30 months after graduating26 Japan Subject Non-graduate Graduate Unemployed The OECD’s survey of adult skills, published in 2013, allows us to compare England with 19 other jobs jobs OECD member states. We are far from unique: in every country, a percentage of workers report that they are overqualified for the jobs they do. However, England’s result puts us second only to Japan. Creative arts & design 37% 37% 14% Figure 9: percentage of adults reporting they are over-qualified for the job they do28

Law 36% 30% 14% % overqualified Linguistics and classics 34% 31% 14% 35 30 Engineering/ 16% 57% 10% 25 technologies 20 15 Subjects allied to 13% 68% 5% medicine 10 5 Medicine and <1% 92% 2% 0 dentistry USA Italy Spain Japan Korea

Poland Ireland Austria Finland Estonia Canada Norway Sweden England Average Australia Denmark Germany

Figure 8: percentage of graduates in non-graduate jobs 30 months after graduating, by class of Netherlands Czech Republic

27 Slovak Republic degree The earnings premium Non-graduate jobs by class It remains true that on average, graduates earn more than non-graduates over the course of a working lifetime. A report published by the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (Research of degree achieved (%) Paper 112) compared the prospects of people who have a first degree and two or more A-levels with those who have 2+ A-levels but no degree29. Male graduates were estimated to earn an extra 60 £168,000 over a working lifetime; for women, the earnings premium is even larger, at £252,000. 40 Again, however, the size of the graduate premium varies by class of degree and subject. Another report published by the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills30 found the highest reported 20 premia to be associated with degrees in medicine and dentistry: 70.1% for men and 91.7% for 0 women. Other degree subjects offer a lower graduate premium. The best results – 30-35% – are gained by graduates in veterinary science, mathematical and computer sciences, engineering, law 1st Upper Lower Third and education. At the bottom of the table, subjects offering a graduate premium of less than 10% class 2nd 2nd class include mass communication and documentation, historical and philosophical studies and creative arts and design.

28 OECD (2013), OECD Skills Outlook 2013: First Results from the Survey of Adult Skills, OECD Publishing. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264204256-en (Table A4.25) 29 Walker I and Zhu Yu (2013), The Impact of University Degrees on the Lifecycle of Earnings: some further analysis. London: Department for Business, Innovation and Skills 30 Conlon G and Patrignani P (2011), The Returns to Higher Education Qualifications. London: Department for 26 ibid Business, Innovation and Skills 27 ibid

Sector snapshot However,access to we careers cannot specialists expect teachers with a full to andbe careers up to date experts. understanding It is essential of the for labouryoung peoplemarket toand have accesspathways to careers to success. specialists In Scotland, with a careersfull and guidanceup to date is understanding recognised as ‘ofa distinct, the labour defined mark etand and specialist And above all, no NEETs. The creative and digital sectors are growing rapidly. The term “creative” 42 Sectorincludes snapshot film, TV, theatre, radio, computer games, publishing, advertising, pathwaysprofession to which success. demands In Scotland, a unique careers set ofguidance core skills is recognised’ . We must as give ‘a distinct, the profession defined equaland specialist 42 music, performing/visual arts, design and cultural heritage. They increasingly professionrecognition which in England. demands a unique set of core skills’ . We must give the profession equal In agriculture, forestry and fishing, 55% of people are over 45 years of age, depend on digital technologies, which provide the infrastructure for recognition in England. compareddeveloping with and 38% sharing across creative the economy content. as The a whole. two linked The number sectors of will individuals create This is essential if young people are to make sound choices at 14, 16 and 18. They must have access in the sector aged 60 and over increased from 57,000 in 2002 to 84,000 in up to 300,000 new jobs between 2010 and 2020 – a total increase of 20% in Thisto the is essential full facts if about young higher peop leeducation, are to make vocational sound choices courses at and 14, apprenticeships, 16 and 18. They andmust the have chance access to 2010.ten years.Given Addingthis profile, in vacancies it is not surprisingcreated by that people replacement leaving the demand industry is totalk the about full facts their about options higher with education, someone trainedvocational to providecourses impartialand apprenticeships, advice. and the chance to forecast(through to retirement,be very high for in theexample), decade the to 2020.industry The needs Sector to Skills recruit Council, up to

Lantra,800,000 forecasts managers, that professionals212,000 people and will techn be neededicians. to replace workers who talk about their options with someone trained to provide impartial advice. leave the industry – a remarkable figure, considering the popular image of Learning beyond school

agricultureSource: Williams as aM, decl Hillageining J, Pinto industry. R and Garrett R (2012), Sector Skills Insights: Digital and Creative. UKCES LearningMatthew Hancock, beyond Minister school for Skills and Enterprise, has summed up his policy in one sentence:

Our goal is for it to become the norm for young people to go into an Apprenticeship43 or to Sector snapshot university or – in the case of some Higher Apprenticeships – do both. university or – in the case of some Higher Apprenticeships – do both.43 Construction is the second largest sector of employment in the UK. This is absolutely the right strategy. We must stop describing technical and vocational learning as the

Replacing people who leave the skilled trades means recruiting over 400,000 Thisoption is absolutely for the “other the right 50%”: strategy. it is an Weoption must for stop all. describing technical and vocational learning as the people by 2020 – and that’s before net growth is factored in. option for the “other 50%”: it is an option for all. Sector snapshot There are signs that apprenticeships appeal to growing numbers of young people. Figures from the After a downturn, the sector is starting to grow again in the south east of The healthEngland, care and and other social regions are set to follow in the second half of the decade. Thereapprenticeship are signs that vacancies apprenticeships website show appeal that to between growing Augustnumbers and of Octoberyoung people. 2013, applicationsFigures from per the work sector is doubly affected avacancypprenticeship ranged vacancies from 10:1 website to 27:1 show across that different between sectors August of andthe economy.October 2013 In the, applications case of business, per Many people think of house building and bricklayers when they hear the by demographic change. Not vacancy ranged from 10:1 to 27:1 across different sectors of the economy. In the case of business,44 word construction. In fact, the sector is much broader than this, taking in administration and law, there were 165,410 applications for 15,550 apprenticeship vacancies . only is there a need to replace 44 major civil engineering projects such asSector Crossrail snapshot as well as commercial, administration and law, there were 165,410 applications for 15,550 apprenticeship vacancies . people leaving the workforce, but Britain’sindustrial ageing and population healthcare buildings. Many modern buildings don’t contain Hospitality and tourism is a huge is leadingany to bricks a huge at increase all; and dryin lining is taking the place of traditional plaster walls. industry spanning hotels, caring occupationsEmployers increasingly. Between need specialist skills in prefabrication, automation, restaurants, bars, travel agencies, 2010 andproject 2020 managementthere are and the use of green materials and methods. 39 Ofsted (2013), Going in the right direction? Careers guidance in schools from September 2012 event planning, tour operators and 40 forecast Sour toce: be Gambin 695,000 L, Hogarth T, Atfield G, Li Y, Owen D, Breuer Z and Garrett R, Sector Skills Insights (2012), 39 Ofsted http://www.speakers4schools.org/ (2013), Going in the right direction? Careers guidance in schools from September 2012 leisure facilities. Taking account of 41 vacanciesConstruction. for caring UKCES and other 40 http://www.speakers4schools.org/ http://www.inspiringthefuture.org/ staff turnover and net growth in service level jobs: within this 4142 The Scottish Government (2011), Career Information, Advice and Guidance in Scotland: A Framework for employment, the industry needs to http://www.inspiringthefuture.org/ total, entirely new jobs will 42Service The Scottish Redesign Government and Improvement (2011), Career Information, Advice and Guidance in Scotland: A Framework for recruit an average of 135,000 43 amount to 125,000 vacancies, Service Department Redesign for and Business, Improvement Innovation and Skills (2013), The Future of Apprenticeships in England: 38 people every year between now and “Michael Gove speaks about computing andand education replacement technology”, demand 2014: 43Implementation Department for PlanBusiness, Innovation and Skills (2013), The Future of Apprenticeships in England: 2020. 44 https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/michaaccountsel for-gove 570,000-speaks. -about-computing-and-education-technology Implementation National Apprenticeship Plan Service (2014), Apprenticeship vacancies increase by a quarter year on year,

Source: Williams M, Luanaigh A and Garrett R 44http://www.apprenticeships.org.uk/news National Apprenticeship Service (2014), Apprenticeship-media/latest-news/article398.aspx vacancies increase by a quarter year on year, Source: Tamkin P, Behling F, Jones R and (2012), Sector Skills Insights: Tourism. UKCES 38 “Michael Gove speaks about computing andGarrett education R (2012), Sector technology”, Skills Insights: 2014: 24 http://www.apprenticeships.org.uk/news-media/latest-news/article398.aspx Health and Social Care. UKCES https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/michael-gove-speaks-about-computing-and-education-technology

We have more over-qualified workers than any OECD country other than There are also signs that the graduate premium is shrinking over time. In a report published by the Table 5: employment status of graduates 30 months after graduating26 Japan Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, Ian Walker and Yu Zhu say: Subject Non-graduate Graduate Unemployed The OECD’s survey of adult skills, published in 2013, allows us to compare England with 19 other Our suspicion is that a smaller graduate earnings premium may have been driven by the jobs jobs OECD member states. We are far from unique: in every country, a percentage of workers report that rapid and large expansion in the supply of graduates that occurred in the early 1990s.31 they are overqualified for the jobs they do. However, England’s result puts us second only to Japan. Creative arts & design 37% 37% 14% In addition, Futuretrack found that graduate salaries fell by an average of 21.9% between 2003 and 28 Figure 9: percentage of adults reporting they are over-qualified for the job they do 2011; for arts graduates, salaries fell by nearly a third (32.9%). Law 36% 30% 14% Quality apprenticeships enable More recently, the Office of National Statistics compared % overqualified employers to offer innovative the earnings of 12 million employed graduates and 2.5 Linguistics and classics 34% 31% 14% 35 training that responds to their million people who completed apprenticeships32. 30 immediate needs and is associated Graduates do earn more, on average, than former Engineering/ 16% 57% 10% 25 with higher productivity, better apprentices: £15.18 per hour against £11.10 (gross technologies 20 opportunities for sustained median earnings). However, there is a considerable 15 overlap between the wage ranges achieved by graduates Subjects allied to 13% 68% 5% employment, better working medicine 10 conditions and higher skill transfer and apprentices. More than a quarter of graduate 5 within and across sectors. employees (27%) earn less than £11.10 per hour, the Medicine and <1% 92% 2% 0 average hourly wage earned by former apprentices. dentistry World Economic Forum (2014), Building Social USA Italy Partnerships for Better Skills and Better Jobs Spain Japan Korea Other evidence suggests that some apprentices will earn

Poland Ireland Austria Finland Estonia Canada Norway Sweden England Average Australia Denmark Germany almost as much as an average graduate over their

27 Slovak Republic degree earnings:

The earnings premium  Apprenticeship in Construction: £1,503,726 Non-graduate jobs by class It remains true that on average, graduates earn more than non-graduates over the course of a  Apprenticeship in Health Care, Public Services & Care: £1,494,547 working lifetime. A report published by the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (Research  A degree (average): £1,611,551 of degree achieved (%) Paper 112) compared the prospects of people who have a first degree and two or more A-levels with those who have 2+ A-levels but no degree29. Male graduates were estimated to earn an extra In short, graduates do not automatically earn more than apprentices. There is already considerable £168,000 over a working lifetime; for women, the earnings premium is even larger, at £252,000. overlap between the two groups, and trends in the labour market suggest the overlap will get 60 bigger, not smaller, in the coming decade. 40 Again, however, the size of the graduate premium varies by class of degree and subject. Another report published by the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills30 found the highest reported 20 premia to be associated with degrees in medicine and dentistry: 70.1% for men and 91.7% for 0 women. Other degree subjects offer a lower graduate premium. The best results – 30-35% – are gained by graduates in veterinary science, mathematical and computer sciences, engineering, law 1st Upper Lower Third and education. At the bottom of the table, subjects offering a graduate premium of less than 10% include mass communication and documentation, historical and philosophical studies and creative class 2nd 2nd class arts and design.

28 OECD (2013), OECD Skills Outlook 2013: First Results from the Survey of Adult Skills, OECD Publishing. 31 BIS Research Paper 112, op cit http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264204256-en (Table A4.25) 32 http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/business-transparency/freedom-of-information/what-can-i- 29 Walker I and Zhu Yu (2013), The Impact of University Degrees on the Lifecycle of Earnings: some further request/published-ad-hoc-data/labour/december-2013/graduates-and-non-graduates-with-an-apprenticeship.xls 33 analysis. London: Department for Business, Innovation and Skills First Steps to Wealth: a study of career and earning opportunities for young Britons, January 2012. Report 30 Conlon G and Patrignani P (2011), The Returns to Higher Education Qualifications. London: Department for published by Skandia, based on research by CoreData Research UK. 26 ibid Business, Innovation and Skills http://www2.skandia.co.uk/Documents/Literature%20Library/212-5003-first-steps-to-wealth.pdf 27 ibid

Sector snapshot However,access to we careers cannot specialists expect teachers with a full to andbe careers up to date experts. understanding It is essential of the for labouryoung peoplemarket toand have This is one way of boosting the take-up of work-related qualifications at or immediately below accesspathways to careers to success. specialists In Scotland, with a careersfull and guidanceup to date is understanding recognised as ‘ofa distinct, the labour defined mark etand and specialist And above all, no NEETs. The creative and digital sectors are growing rapidly. The term “creative” degree level. The OECD noted that: 42 Sectorincludes snapshot film, TV, theatre, radio, computer games, publishing, advertising, pathwaysprofession to which success. demands In Scotland, a unique careers set ofguidance core skills is recognised’ . We must as give ‘a distinct, the profession defined equaland specialist 42 music, performing/visual arts, design and cultural heritage. They increasingly professionrecognition which in England. demands a unique set of core skills’ . We must give the profession equal England has relatively little vocational provision at postsecondary level relative to many In agriculture, forestry and fishing, 55% of people are over 45 years of age, depend on digital technologies, which provide the infrastructure for recognition in England. other countries, and relative to potential demand, leading to a shortage of mid-level skills compareddeveloping with and 38% sharing across creative the economy content. as The a whole. two linked The number sectors of will individuals create This is essential if young people are to make sound choices at 14, 16 and 18. They must have access in the sector aged 60 and over increased from 57,000 in 2002 to 84,000 in ….There are ten times as many students enrolled in bachelor programmes than in up to 300,000 new jobs between 2010 and 2020 – a total increase of 20% in Thisto the is essential full facts if about young higher peop leeducation, are to make vocational sound choices courses at and 14, apprenticeships, 16 and 18. They andmust the have chance access to 2010.ten years.Given Addingthis profile, in vacancies it is not surprisingcreated by that people replacement leaving the demand industry is foundation degrees… while other postsecondary programmes such as higher national totalk the about full facts their about options higher with education, someone trainedvocational to providecourses impartialand apprenticeships, advice. and the chance to forecast(through to retirement,be very high for in theexample), decade the to 2020.industry The needs Sector to Skills recruit Council, up to certificates and diplomas are a very small and declining element of postsecondary

Lantra,800,000 forecasts managers, that professionals212,000 people and will techn be neededicians. to replace workers who talk about their options with someone trained to provide impartial advice. education.46 leave the industry – a remarkable figure, considering the popular image of Learning beyond school

Source: Breuer Z (2012), Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing: Sector Skills Assessment 2012. UKCES Matthew Hancock, Minister for Skills and Enterprise, has summed up his policy in one sentence: and regional employers, they are perfectly placed to reinvigorate programmes such as HNCs, HNDs Our goal is for it to become the norm for young people to go into an Apprenticeship or to and foundation degrees and help young people acquire the skills, knowledge and qualifications that Ouruniversity goal is foror –it in to the become case of the some norm Higher for young Apprenticeships people to go – intodo both. an Apprenticeship43 or to Sector snapshot will be in high demand in the years to come. university or – in the case of some Higher Apprenticeships – do both.43 Construction is the second largest sector of employment in the UK. This is absolutely the right strategy. We must stop describing technical and vocational learning as the Further education colleges also offer full bachelor degrees. Again, links with employers and a large Replacing people who leave the skilled trades means recruiting over 400,000 Thisoption is absolutely for the “other the right 50%”: strategy. it is an Weoption must for stop all. describing technical and vocational learning as the pool of talented young people mean FE can play a larger role in the future of higher education in people by 2020 – and that’s before net growth is factored in. option for the “other 50%”: it is an option for all. Sector snapshot There are signs that apprenticeships appeal to growing numbers of young people. Figures from the England. Our colleges can aspire to the high status enjoyed by their counterparts in Austria and After a downturn, the sector is starting to grow again in the south east of Germany, provided they offer outstanding learning linked to the needs of the modern economy. The healthEngland, care and and other social regions are set to follow in the second half of the decade. Thereapprenticeship are signs that vacancies apprenticeships website show appeal that to between growing Augustnumbers and of Octoberyoung people. 2013, applicationsFigures from per the work sector is doubly affected avacancypprenticeship ranged vacancies from 10:1 website to 27:1 show across that different between sectors August of andthe economy.October 2013 In the, applications case of business, per Many people think of house building and bricklayers when they hear the Which leaves us with universities. In this paper, I have drawn attention to the growing mismatch by demographic change. Not vacancy ranged from 10:1 to 27:1 across different sectors of the economy. In the case of business,44 word construction. In fact, the sector is much broader than this, taking in administration and law, there were 165,410 applications for 15,550 apprenticeship vacancies . only is there a need to replace 44 between the degree programmes they provide and the jobs offered by today’s employers. major civil engineering projects such asSector Crossrail snapshot as well as commercial, administration and law, there were 165,410 applications for 15,550 apprenticeship vacancies . people leaving the workforce, but Britain’sindustrial ageing and population healthcare buildings. Many modern buildings don’t contain Hospitality and tourism is a huge is leadingany to bricks a huge at increase all; and dryin lining is taking the place of traditional plaster walls. industry spanning hotels, caring occupationsEmployers increasingly. Between need specialist skills in prefabrication, automation, restaurants, bars, travel agencies, 2010 andproject 2020 managementthere are and the use of green materials and methods. 39 Ofsted (2013), Going in the right direction? Careers guidance in schools from September 2012 event planning, tour operators and 40 forecast Sour toce: be Gambin 695,000 L, Hogarth T, Atfield G, Li Y, Owen D, Breuer Z and Garrett R, Sector Skills Insights (2012), 39 Ofsted http://www.speakers4schools.org/ (2013), Going in the right direction? Careers guidance in schools from September 2012 leisure facilities. Taking account of 41 vacanciesConstruction. for caring UKCES and other 40 http://www.speakers4schools.org/ http://www.inspiringthefuture.org/ staff turnover and net growth in service level jobs: within this 4142 The Scottish Government (2011), Career Information, Advice and Guidance in Scotland: A Framework for employment, the industry needs to http://www.inspiringthefuture.org/ total, entirely new jobs will 42Service The Scottish Redesign Government and Improvement (2011), Career Information, Advice and Guidance in Scotland: A Framework for recruit an average of 135,000 43 amount to 125,000 vacancies, Service Department Redesign for and Business, Improvement Innovation and Skills (2013), The Future of Apprenticeships in England: 38 people every year between now and “Michael Gove speaks about computing andand education replacement technology”, demand 2014: 43Implementation Department for PlanBusiness, Innovation and Skills (2013), The Future of Apprenticeships in England: 2020. 44 https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/michaaccountsel for-gove 570,000-speaks. -about-computing-and-education-technology Implementation National Apprenticeship Plan Service (2014), Apprenticeship vacancies increase by a quarter year on year, 45 Skills Funding Agency (2014), Statistical First Release DS/SFR22, Further Education & Skills: Learner Source: Williams M, Luanaigh A and Garrett R 44http://www.apprenticeships.org.uk/news National Apprenticeship Service (2014), Apprenticeship-media/latest-news/article398.aspx vacancies increase by a quarter year on year, Source: Tamkin P, Behling F, Jones R and Participation, Outcomes and Level of Highest Qualification Held (2012), Sector Skills Insights: Tourism. UKCES 38 “Michael Gove speaks about computing andGarrett education R (2012), Sector technology”, Skills Insights: 2014: http://www.apprenticeships.org.uk/news-media/latest-news/article398.aspx 25 46 Musset P and Field S (2013), A Skills beyond School Review of England, OECD Publishing Health and Social Care. UKCES https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/michael-gove-speaks-about-computing-and-education-technology

colleges

 better information for young people about the vast range of choice in higher education

39 Ofsted (2013), Going in the right direction? Careers guidance in schools from September 2012 If this happens, there will be a fundamental shift in our education system, with far greater emphasis 40 39 Ofsted http://www.speakers4schools.org/ (2013), Going in the right direction? Careers guidance in schools from September 2012 41 on technical and vocational opportunities and a reduction in the number of people taking bachelors’ 40 http://www.speakers4schools.org/ http://www.inspiringthefuture.org/ 42 41 http://www.inspiringthefuture.org/ The Scottish Government (2011), Career Information, Advice and Guidance in Scotland: A Framework for degrees. Some subjects will be affected more than others; indeed, reductions in some disciplines will 42Service The Scottish Redesign Government and Improvement (2011), Career Information, Advice and Guidance in Scotland: A Framework for be partially offset by growth in others. This will be a challenge, but we must be prepared to take it 43 Service Department Redesign for and Business, Improvement Innovation and Skills (2013), The Future of Apprenticeships in England: on. 43Implementation Department for PlanBusiness, Innovation and Skills (2013), The Future of Apprenticeships in England: 44 Implementation National Apprenticeship Plan Service (2014), Apprenticeship vacancies increase by a quarter year on year, 45 Skills Funding Agency (2014), Statistical First Release DS/SFR22, Further Education & Skills: Learner 44http://www.apprenticeships.org.uk/news National Apprenticeship Service (2014), Apprenticeship-media/latest-news/article398.aspx vacancies increase by a quarter year on year, Participation, Outcomes and Level of Highest Qualification Held 47 http://www.apprenticeships.org.uk/news-media/latest-news/article398.aspx 46 Musset P and Field S (2013), A Skills beyond School Review of England, OECD Publishing 26 https://unistats.direct.gov.uk/find-out-more/key-information-set/

That is not meant to be a blanket criticism. Many faculties Given this level of demand, we need to boost the number of apprenticeships offered by employers. A comprehensive strategy to reduce have excellent links with employers and see graduate The government’s Apprenticeship Grant for Employers Scheme (AGE) shows great potential, having skills mismatches requires first that employability as a top priority. Nor do I take a purely supported nearly 50,000 new apprenticeship places for 16-24 year olds between February 2012 and the quality of education is secured 45 utilitarian view of higher education. Students can and October 2013 . It is vital that we continue to promote apprenticeships to employers of all sizes, and participation raised, up until the should choose subjects they are passionate about, not particularly those in sectors facing skills shortages. end of the secondary level and just the subjects most directly connected to the world of especially in developing economies. While intermediate and advanced apprenticeships will continue to attract the largest numbers, work. Second, it demands a diversification Higher Apprenticeships have enormous potential to raise the status and reputation of approach to providing education, apprenticeships as a whole. Designed as a work-based route to higher qualifications, they have a But there is much room for improvement. The Key 47 recognizing that both medium skills strong appeal to people who enjoy learning by doing. As Matthew Hancock says, they combine the Information Set (KIS) is a vital step, providing hard data (provided through technical and Summary benefits of higher education and learning at work. The Chancellor, George Osborne, committed a to help students choose courses. This includes vocational education) and high skills  Talk of an hourglass economy has been grossly exaggerated. further £40 million over two years in his 2013 Autumn Statement, which will support the continued information about the destinations of leavers – the type (provided through tertiary  Successive governments have failed to appreciate the connection between education and expansion of this remarkable programme. and nature of the jobs they do, their relative rates of employment, and so on. Supported by effective and education) are required in the labour economic policy.  This is one way of boosting the take-up of work-related qualifications at or immediately below impartial careers advice, the KIS will make it easier for market and for economic growth. While the graduate market will remain strong, a degree is no longer the passport to success degree level. The OECD noted that: students to make effective choices in the years to come. And third, it implies improving the promised 20 years ago. relevance of education and training  Graduate numbers have risen much faster in some disciplines than others, fuelling a skills England has relatively little vocational provision at postsecondary level relative to many In addition, universities must do more to engage with for the labour market through mismatch. other countries, and relative to potential demand, leading to a shortage of mid-level skills employers. Good practice is often to be found in overtly strengthened channels of  As a result, the number of graduates in non-graduate jobs is rising. The challenge is greatest ….There are ten times as many students enrolled in bachelor programmes than in vocational departments, such as medicine and communication between education for people with degrees in creative arts, design, law and linguistics. foundation degrees… while other postsecondary programmes such as higher national engineering, where there are long-standing connections and workplace actors, as well as  The graduate premium is starting to weaken. It is already below 10% for graduates in mass certificates and diplomas are a very small and declining element of postsecondary between academics and employers. It is more rarely public-private partnerships. communication and documentation, historical and philosophical studies and creative arts 46 education. found in arts and social science faculties. Finding out what and design. World Economic Forum (2014), Building Social employers want from new graduates does not  More than a quarter of employed graduates earn less than the average hourly wage This presents a golden opportunity for our further education colleges. Through their links with local Partnerships for Better Skills and Better Jobs compromise academic freedom, but it does reduce the achieved by former apprentices. and regional employers, they are perfectly placed to reinvigorate programmes such as HNCs, HNDs risks of unemployment and under-employment.  and foundation degrees and help young people acquire the skills, knowledge and qualifications that Youth unemployment is unacceptably high. Yet in the next few years, there will be millions of jobs for people with technical and vocational skills at level 3 and above, due to a will be in high demand in the years to come. The skills mismatch must be tackled, starting in primary school and continuing into adulthood. The combination of economic growth and the need to replace people leaving the labour market. future must include: Further education colleges also offer full bachelor degrees. Again, links with employers and a large  Other countries show the way. There is a clear link between high enrolments in vocational pool of talented young people mean FE can play a larger role in the future of higher education in  a greater role for employers in education – at all levels from primary to HE upper secondary education and lower rates of youth unemployment. We must learn from England. Our colleges can aspire to the high status enjoyed by their counterparts in Austria and  impartial advice and guidance for all young people at school and college their example. Germany, provided they offer outstanding learning linked to the needs of the modern economy.  more opportunities for hands-on learning in schools

 high quality technical and vocational pathways from 14 Which leaves us with universities. In this paper, I have drawn attention to the growing mismatch  more apprenticeship places for young people between the degree programmes they provide and the jobs offered by today’s employers.  reinvigorated HNC, HND and foundation degree programmes, led by further education colleges  better information for young people about the vast range of choice in higher education

on.

45 Skills Funding Agency (2014), Statistical First Release DS/SFR22, Further Education & Skills: Learner

That is not meant to be a blanket criticism. Many faculties Recommendations A comprehensive strategy to reduce have excellent links with employers and see graduate skills mismatches requires first that employability as a top priority. Nor do I take a purely the quality of education is secured utilitarian view of higher education. Students can and More 14-18 specialist colleges and participation raised, up until the should choose subjects they are passionate about, not We need more and better technical and vocational pathways. Practical learning should be a part of every end of the secondary level and child’s experience at school, and they should be free to specialise in hands-on subjects from the age of 14. just the subjects most directly connected to the world of especially in developing economies. work. Second, it demands a diversification University Technical Colleges show the way. Combining rigorous academic study with stretching technical qualifications, they boost the achievement and prospects of students in science, engineering and But there is much room for improvement. The Key approach to providing education, technology and create pathways to apprenticeships, higher education and long-term careers. Information Set (KIS)47 is a vital step, providing hard data recognizing that both medium skills Summary to help students choose courses. This includes (provided through technical and The next step must be to apply the UTC ethos to subjects other than science, engineering and technology.  Talk of an hourglass economy has been grossly exaggerated. information about the destinations of leavers – the type vocational education) and high skills Career Colleges, set up by further education colleges, will provide hands-on learning from 14 up.  and nature of the jobs they do, their relative rates of (provided through tertiary Successive governments have failed to appreciate the connection between education and employment, and so on. Supported by effective and education) are required in the labour economic policy.  impartial careers advice, the KIS will make it easier for market and for economic growth. While the graduate market will remain strong, a degree is no longer the passport to success Close links between education and local employers students to make effective choices in the years to come. And third, it implies improving the promised 20 years ago. We must strengthen links between employers and all forms of education, so the curriculum better relevance of education and training  Graduate numbers have risen much faster in some disciplines than others, fuelling a skills prepares young people for the future. In addition, universities must do more to engage with for the labour market through mismatch. Young people need direct experience of the world of work while still at school, through visits, talks, employers. Good practice is often to be found in overtly strengthened channels of  As a result, the number of graduates in non-graduate jobs is rising. The challenge is greatest meetings and placements. vocational departments, such as medicine and communication between education for people with degrees in creative arts, design, law and linguistics. engineering, where there are long-standing connections and workplace actors, as well as  The graduate premium is starting to weaken. It is already below 10% for graduates in mass We must stop describing technical and vocational learning as the option for the “other 50%”: it is an between academics and employers. It is more rarely public-private partnerships. communication and documentation, historical and philosophical studies and creative arts option for all. found in arts and social science faculties. Finding out what and design. employers want from new graduates does not World Economic Forum (2014), Building Social Apprenticeships must be an option of choice for most school and college leavers, including those who plan Partnerships for Better Skills and Better Jobs  More than a quarter of employed graduates earn less than the average hourly wage compromise academic freedom, but it does reduce the achieved by former apprentices. to go on to higher education later. risks of unemployment and under-employment.  Youth unemployment is unacceptably high. Yet in the next few years, there will be millions Labour market information must become required reading for politicians, planners and educators alike. of jobs for people with technical and vocational skills at level 3 and above, due to a The skills mismatch must be tackled, starting in primary school and continuing into adulthood. The combination of economic growth and the need to replace people leaving the labour market. future must include:  Other countries show the way. There is a clear link between high enrolments in vocational Essential information  a greater role for employers in education – at all levels from primary to HE upper secondary education and lower rates of youth unemployment. We must learn from Young people, parents and teachers need to know about the jobs available today and tomorrow. Children  impartial advice and guidance for all young people at school and college their example. and young people should meet and visit people from a range of careers, starting in primary school.  more opportunities for hands-on learning in schools Young people must have information about career prospects before they choose subjects and courses.  high quality technical and vocational pathways from 14 This applies both at school and beyond. It is important for all young people, whether they aim for  more apprenticeship places for young people vocational pathways, apprenticeships, higher education or a combination of all three.  reinvigorated HNC, HND and foundation degree programmes, led by further education colleges  New targets better information for young people about the vast range of choice in higher education We must change the way we judge the success of schools, colleges and universities. Qualifications are not If this happens, there will be a fundamental shift in our education system, with far greater emphasis enough. What matters is what becomes of students when they leave. Taking a lead from UTCs, the aim on technical and vocational opportunities and a reduction in the number of people taking bachelors’ must be no NEETs. degrees. Some subjects will be affected more than others; indeed, reductions in some disciplines will be partially offset by growth in others. This will be a challenge, but we must be prepared to take it Further education colleges must strengthen post-16 pathways to level 3, 4 and beyond. They can aspire to on. the same high status as technical colleges in Austria and Germany provided they offer outstanding learning linked to the needs of the modern economy.

47 https://unistats.direct.gov.uk/find-out-more/key-information-set/ 28

Recommendations

University Technical Colleges show the way. Combining rigorous academic study with stretching technical qualifications, they boost the achievement and prospects of students in science, engineering and technology and create pathways to apprenticeships, higher education and long-term careers. Summary The next step must be to apply the UTC ethos to subjects other than science, engineering and technology.  Talk of an hourglass economy has been grossly exaggerated. Career Colleges, set up by further education colleges, will provide hands-on learning from 14 up.  Successive governments have failed to appreciate the connection between education and economic policy.  While the graduate market will remain strong, a degree is no longer the passport to success Close links between education and local employers promised 20 years ago. We must strengthen links between employers and all forms of education, so the curriculum better  Graduate numbers have risen much faster in some disciplines than others, fuelling a skills prepares young people for the future. mismatch. Young people need direct experience of the world of work while still at school, through visits, talks,  As a result, the number of graduates in non-graduate jobs is rising. The challenge is greatest meetings and placements. for people with degrees in creative arts, design, law and linguistics.  The graduate premium is starting to weaken. It is already below 10% for graduates in mass We must stop describing technical and vocational learning as the option for the “other 50%”: it is an communication and documentation, historical and philosophical studies and creative arts option for all. and design.  More than a quarter of employed graduates earn less than the average hourly wage Apprenticeships must be an option of choice for most school and college leavers, including those who plan achieved by former apprentices. to go on to higher education later.  Youth unemployment is unacceptably high. Yet in the next few years, there will be millions Labour market information must become required reading for politicians, planners and educators alike. of jobs for people with technical and vocational skills at level 3 and above, due to a combination of economic growth and the need to replace people leaving the labour market.  Other countries show the way. There is a clear link between high enrolments in vocational Essential information upper secondary education and lower rates of youth unemployment. We must learn from Young people, parents and teachers need to know about the jobs available today and tomorrow. Children their example. and young people should meet and visit people from a range of careers, starting in primary school.

New targets

We must change the way we judge the success of schools, colleges and universities. Qualifications are not enough. What matters is what becomes of students when they leave. Taking a lead from UTCs, the aim must be no NEETs.

Source: Williams M, Luanaigh A and Garrett R 44http://www.apprenticeships.org.uk/news National Apprenticeship Service (2014), Apprenticeship-media/latest-news/article398.aspx vacancies increase by a quarter year on year, Source: Tamkin P, Behling F, Jones R and (2012), Sector Skills Insights: Tourism. UKCES 38 “Michael Gove speaks about computing andGarrett education R (2012), Sector technology”, Skills Insights: 2014: http://www.apprenticeships.org.uk/news-media/latest-news/article398.aspx Health and Social Care. UKCES https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/michael-gove-speaks-about-computing-and-education-technology

Healthcare students at Liverpool Life Sciences UTC

Engineering Students at Black Country UTC

Sector snapshot However,access to we careers cannot specialists expect teachers with a full to andbe careers up to date experts. understanding It is essential of the for labouryoung peoplemarket toand have This is one way of boosting the take-up of work-related qualifications at or immediately below accesspathways to careers to success. specialists In Scotland, with a careersfull and guidanceup to date is understanding recognised as ‘ofa distinct, the labour defined mark etand and specialist And above all, no NEETs. The creative and digital sectors are growing rapidly. The term “creative” degree level. The OECD noted that: 42 Sectorincludes snapshot film, TV, theatre, radio, computer games, publishing, advertising, pathwaysprofession to which success. demands In Scotland, a unique careers set ofguidance core skills is recognised’ . We must as give ‘a distinct, the profession defined equaland specialist 42 music, performing/visual arts, design and cultural heritage. They increasingly professionrecognition which in England. demands a unique set of core skills’ . We must give the profession equal England has relatively little vocational provision at postsecondary level relative to many In agriculture, forestry and fishing, 55% of people are over 45 years of age, depend on digital technologies, which provide the infrastructure for recognition in England. other countries, and relative to potential demand, leading to a shortage of mid-level skills compareddeveloping with and 38% sharing across creative the economy content. as The a whole. two linked The number sectors of will individuals create This is essential if young people are to make sound choices at 14, 16 and 18. They must have access in the sector aged 60 and over increased from 57,000 in 2002 to 84,000 in ….There are ten times as many students enrolled in bachelor programmes than in up to 300,000 new jobs between 2010 and 2020 – a total increase of 20% in Thisto the is essential full facts if about young higher peop leeducation, are to make vocational sound choices courses at and 14, apprenticeships, 16 and 18. They andmust the have chance access to 2010.ten years.Given Addingthis profile, in vacancies it is not surprisingcreated by that people replacement leaving the demand industry is foundation degrees… while other postsecondary programmes such as higher national totalk the about full facts their about options higher with education, someone trainedvocational to providecourses impartialand apprenticeships, advice. and the chance to forecast(through to retirement,be very high for in theexample), decade the to 2020.industry The needs Sector to Skills recruit Council, up to certificates and diplomas are a very small and declining element of postsecondary

Lantra,800,000 forecasts managers, that professionals212,000 people and will techn be neededicians. to replace workers who talk about their options with someone trained to provide impartial advice. education.46 leave the industry – a remarkable figure, considering the popular image of Learning beyond school

Source: Breuer Z (2012), Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing: Sector Skills Assessment 2012. UKCES Matthew Hancock, Minister for Skills and Enterprise, has summed up his policy in one sentence: and regional employers, they are perfectly placed to reinvigorate programmes such as HNCs, HNDs Our goal is for it to become the norm for young people to go into an Apprenticeship or to and foundation degrees and help young people acquire the skills, knowledge and qualifications that Ouruniversity goal is foror –it in to the become case of the some norm Higher for young Apprenticeships people to go – intodo both. an Apprenticeship43 or to Sector snapshot will be in high demand in the years to come. university or – in the case of some Higher Apprenticeships – do both.43 Construction is the second largest sector of employment in the UK. This is absolutely the right strategy. We must stop describing technical and vocational learning as the Further education colleges also offer full bachelor degrees. Again, links with employers and a large Replacing people who leave the skilled trades means recruiting over 400,000 Thisoption is absolutely for the “other the right 50%”: strategy. it is an Weoption must for stop all. describing technical and vocational learning as the pool of talented young people mean FE can play a larger role in the future of higher education in people by 2020 – and that’s before net growth is factored in. option for the “other 50%”: it is an option for all. Sector snapshot There are signs that apprenticeships appeal to growing numbers of young people. Figures from the England. Our colleges can aspire to the high status enjoyed by their counterparts in Austria and After a downturn, the sector is starting to grow again in the south east of Germany, provided they offer outstanding learning linked to the needs of the modern economy. The healthEngland, care and and other social regions are set to follow in the second half of the decade. Thereapprenticeship are signs that vacancies apprenticeships website show appeal that to between growing Augustnumbers and of Octoberyoung people. 2013, applicationsFigures from per the work sector is doubly affected avacancypprenticeship ranged vacancies from 10:1 website to 27:1 show across that different between sectors August of andthe economy.October 2013 In the, applications case of business, per Many people think of house building and bricklayers when they hear the Which leaves us with universities. In this paper, I have drawn attention to the growing mismatch by demographic change. Not vacancy ranged from 10:1 to 27:1 across different sectors of the economy. In the case of business,44 word construction. In fact, the sector is much broader than this, taking in administration and law, there were 165,410 applications for 15,550 apprenticeship vacancies . only is there a need to replace 44 between the degree programmes they provide and the jobs offered by today’s employers. major civil engineering projects such asSector Crossrail snapshot as well as commercial, administration and law, there were 165,410 applications for 15,550 apprenticeship vacancies . people leaving the workforce, but Britain’sindustrial ageing and population healthcare buildings. Many modern buildings don’t contain Hospitality and tourism is a huge is leadingany to bricks a huge at increase all; and dryin lining is taking the place of traditional plaster walls. industry spanning hotels, caring occupationsEmployers increasingly. Between need specialist skills in prefabrication, automation, restaurants, bars, travel agencies, 2010 andproject 2020 managementthere are and the use of green materials and methods. 39 Ofsted (2013), Going in the right direction? Careers guidance in schools from September 2012 event planning, tour operators and 40 forecast Sour toce: be Gambin 695,000 L, Hogarth T, Atfield G, Li Y, Owen D, Breuer Z and Garrett R, Sector Skills Insights (2012), 39 Ofsted http://www.speakers4schools.org/ (2013), Going in the right direction? Careers guidance in schools from September 2012 leisure facilities. Taking account of 41 vacanciesConstruction. for caring UKCES and other 40 http://www.speakers4schools.org/ http://www.inspiringthefuture.org/ staff turnover and net growth in service level jobs: within this 4142 The Scottish Government (2011), Career Information, Advice and Guidance in Scotland: A Framework for employment, the industry needs to http://www.inspiringthefuture.org/ total, entirely new jobs will 42Service The Scottish Redesign Government and Improvement (2011), Career Information, Advice and Guidance in Scotland: A Framework for recruit an average of 135,000 43 amount to 125,000 vacancies, Service Department Redesign for and Business, Improvement Innovation and Skills (2013), The Future of Apprenticeships in England: 38 people every year between now and “Michael Gove speaks about computing andand education replacement technology”, demand 2014: 43Implementation Department for PlanBusiness, Innovation and Skills (2013), The Future of Apprenticeships in England: 2020. 44 https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/michaaccountsel for-gove 570,000-speaks. -about-computing-and-education-technology Implementation National Apprenticeship Plan Service (2014), Apprenticeship vacancies increase by a quarter year on year, 45 Skills Funding Agency (2014), Statistical First Release DS/SFR22, Further Education & Skills: Learner Source: Williams M, Luanaigh A and Garrett R 44http://www.apprenticeships.org.uk/news National Apprenticeship Service (2014), Apprenticeship-media/latest-news/article398.aspx vacancies increase by a quarter year on year, Source: Tamkin P, Behling F, Jones R and Participation, Outcomes and Level of Highest Qualification Held (2012), Sector Skills Insights: Tourism. UKCES 38 “Michael Gove speaks about computing andGarrett education R (2012), Sector technology”, Skills Insights: 2014: http://www.apprenticeships.org.uk/news-media/latest-news/article398.aspx 46 Musset P and Field S (2013), A Skills beyond School Review of England, OECD Publishing Health and Social Care. UKCES https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/michael-gove-speaks-about-computing-and-education-technology

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