Santa Rosa Lowe’s Home Improvement Warehouse Project Draft EIR Population, Housing, and Employment

4.10 - Population, Housing, and Employment

4.10.1 - Introduction This section describes the existing setting for population, housing, and employment and potential effects from project implementation on the site and its surrounding area. Descriptions and analysis in this section are based on population and housing information provided by the California Department of Finance, the Association of Bay Area Governments, and the City of Santa Rosa.

4.10.2 - Environmental Setting Current Population, Housing, and Employment Estimates The California Department of Finance estimated the population of the City of Santa Rosa to be 159,981 as of January 1, 2008. Population and housing characteristics for Santa Rosa are summarized in Table 4.10-1.

Table 4.10-1: Santa Rosa Population and Housing Characteristics (2008)

Population Dwelling Units Persons per Household 159,981 64,238 2.499 Source: California Department of Finance, 2007.

The California Employment Development Department estimated the labor force in Santa Rosa to be 83,300 persons in 2007, with a 4.4 percent unemployment rate. (Note that the labor force data for the City of Santa Rosa is not adjusted for seasonal employees.) Santa Rosa’s employment characteristics are summarized in Table 4.10-2.

Table 4.10-2: Santa Rosa Employment Characteristics (2007)

Category Figure Labor force 83,300 Employed persons 79,600 Unemployed persons 3,700 Unemployment rate (percent) 4.4 Source: California Employment Development Department, 2007.

Historic Population Growth The population of Santa Rosa has grown significantly since 1970. The City’s population more than tripled in the 38 years between 1970 and 2008, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 3.1 percent. The City’s historic population growth between 1970 and 2008 is summarized in Table 4.10-3.

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Table 4.10-3: Santa Rosa Historic Population Growth

Year Population Change from Previous (Percent) 1970 50,006 — 1975 64,200 28.4 1980 83,320 29.8 1985 93,700 12.5 1990 113,261 20.9 1995 126,495 11.7 2000 147,595 16.7 2005 155,964 5.7 2008 159,981 1.3 Net Change 109,975 220.0 Compound Annual Growth Rate 3.1 Source: California Department of Finance. 2008.

Projected Population Growth City of Santa Rosa The City of Santa Rosa General Plan anticipates that the City’s population will be 195,300 in 2020 and 216,250 at buildout, which is an unspecified date after 2020.

Association of Bay Area Governments The Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) publishes population growth projections for every city and county in the San Francisco Bay Area. ABAG’s population growth projections are used in regional planning efforts for issues such as air quality and affordable housing. Table 4.10-4 summarizes the population growth projections for Santa Rosa from 2005 to 2035, which includes the population within the city limits and the population within the sphere of influence.

Table 4.10-4: Projected Population Growth

Santa Rosa Population Year Change From Sphere of Change From City Limits Previous (percent) Influence Previous (percent) 2005 155,800 — 176,100 — 2010 167,900 7.8 190,700 8.3 2015 173,700 3.5 197,600 3.6 2020 180,200 3.7 205,100 3.8 2025 185,900 3.2 211,400 3.1 2030 189,700 2.0 216,000 2.2

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Table 4.10-4 (Cont.): Projected Population Growth

Santa Rosa Population Year Change From Sphere of Change From City Limits Previous (percent) Influence Previous (percent) 2035 193,800 2.2 220,100 1.9 Compound Annual — 0.73 — 0.75 Growth Rate Source: Association of Bay Area Governments. 2007.

As shown in Table 4.10-4, ABAG anticipates that population of the City of Santa Rosa will be 15,100 fewer residents that projected by the General Plan in 2020.

Projected Employment Growth ABAG also publishes employment growth projections for every city and county in the San Francisco Bay Area. Table 4.10-5 summarizes the employment growth projections for Santa Rosa. As shown in the table, ABAG projects substantial employment growth in Santa Rosa between 2005 and 2035.

Table 4.10-5: Projected Employment Growth

Santa Rosa Employment Year Change from Retail Sector Change from Total Jobs Previous (percent) Jobs Previous (percent) 2005 93,510 — 12,100 — 2010 100,960 8.0 13,120 8.4 2015 111,400 10.4 14,560 11.0 2020 122,820 10.3 16,190 11.1 2025 135,720 10.5 18,040 11.4 2030 148,390 9.3 19,820 9.7 2035 162,110 9.2 21,810 10.0 Compound Annual — 1.85 — 1.98 Growth Rate Source: Association of Bay Area Governments. 2007.

Affordable Housing Regional Housing Needs Allocation State law requires local governments to provide housing for persons of all income ranges. The State has prioritized housing production by requiring cities and counties periodically to update the housing element of their General Plan, which is the document that outlines the community’s long-term growth strategy. The amount of housing that must be accounted for in a local housing element is determined through a process called the Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA). In the RHNA process, the

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State gives each region a number representing the amount of housing needed, based on existing need and expected population growth.

In the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area region, ABAG is responsible for assigning each city and county allocation targets for housing by income range. Local governments then revise their housing elements to identify development sites and housing policies that will allow the community to meet its housing needs. ABAG’s latest RHNA was issued in March 2008 and guides the production of affordable housing through 2014. The allocations were based on several weighted factors, including projected household growth, existing and projected employment, and proximity to public transit. Table 4.10-6 identifies Santa Rosa’s housing allocation.

Table 4.10-6: Housing Allocation

Income Category Dwelling Unit Allocation Very Low (Up to 50% of Sonoma County’s median income) 1,520 Low (Up to 80% of Sonoma County’s median income) 996 Moderate (Up to 120% of Sonoma County’s median income) 1,122 Above Moderate (Above 120% of Sonoma County’s median income) 2,896 Total 6,534 Source: Association of Bay Area Governments, 2008

1996-2006 Regional Housing Needs Allocation ABAG’s previous RHNA was issued in 1996 and was in effect through 2006. The 1999 RHNA assigned the City of Santa Rosa a need to develop 7,654 dwelling units. Table 4.10-7 summarizes the City’s housing allocation and the number of permits issued for each income category. The City permitted 7,343 affordable dwelling units between 1999 and 2006, which was the fifth highest total in the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area region during that period. As shown in the table, the largest share of the City’s allocation was for moderate and above-moderate incomes. ABAG indicates that the City exceeded its required allocation for the Low, Moderate, and Above-Moderate categories between 1999 and 2006.

Table 4.10-7: 1999-2006 Housing Allocation and Production

Dwelling Unit Dwelling Units Permitted Units as a Income Category Allocation Permitted Percent of Allocation Very Low (Up to 50% of Sonoma County’s 1,539 421 27 median income) Low (Up to 80% of Sonoma County’s 970 1,219 126 median income) Moderate (Up to 120% of Sonoma 2,120 2,137 101 County’s median income)

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Table 4.10-7 (Cont.): 1999-2006 Housing Allocation and Production

Dwelling Unit Dwelling Units Permitted Units as a Income Category Allocation Permitted Percent of Allocation Above Moderate (Above 120% of Sonoma 3,025 3,566 118 County’s median income) Total 7,654 7,343 96 Source: Association of Bay Area Governments, 2007.

4.10.3 - Regulatory Framework State California Housing Element Law State law requires each city and county to adopt a general plan for future growth. This plan must include a housing element that identifies housing needs for all economic segments and provides opportunities for housing development to meet that need. At the state level, the Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) estimates the relative share of California’s projected population growth that would occur in each county in the State, based on Department of Finance population projections and historic growth trends. Where there is a regional council of governments, as in the San Francisco Bay Area (i.e., ABAG), HCD provides the regional housing need to the council. The council then assigns a share of the regional housing need to each of its cities and counties. The process of assigning shares provides cities and counties the opportunity to comment on the proposed allocations. HCD oversees the process to ensure that the council of governments distributes its share of the State’s projected housing need.

Each city and county must update its general plan housing element on a regular basis (generally, every 5 years). Among other things, the housing element must incorporate policies and identify potential sites that would accommodate a city’s share of the regional housing need. Before adopting an update to its housing element, a city or county must submit the draft to HCD for review. HCD will advise the local jurisdiction whether its housing element complies with the provisions of California Housing Element Law.

The councils of governments are required to assign regional housing shares to the cities and counties within their region on a similar 5-year schedule. At the beginning of each cycle, HCD provides population projections to the councils of governments, who then allocate shares to their cities and counties. The shares of the regional need are allocated before the end of the cycle so that the cities and counties can amend their housing elements by the deadline.

Local City of Santa Rosa General Plan The General Plan establishes the following goals and policies related to population, housing, and employment:

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• Goal LUL-K: Maintain the economic vitality of business parks and offices, and Santa Rosa’s role as a regional employment center. • Policy LUL-K-1: Maintain an adequate supply of employment centers in a variety of locations and settings to ensure the City’s continued economic vitality. • Goal H-B: Maintain and rehabilitate, as needed, the existing affordable housing supply within Santa Rosa. • Policy H-B-4: Recognize existing nonconforming residential uses which are located in nonresidential land use categories. Allow such uses to be zoned residential and to be found consistent with the General Plan on an interim basis, until the area is ready to convert and rezone to non-residential uses. • Goal H-D: Provide housing for households with special needs. • Policy H-D-4: Inventory existing properties, including vacant and underutilized non-residential parcels and existing older motels, in order to identify non-residential land with SRO development potential. Develop additional incentives and programs which would encourage new SRO development, rehabilitate existing motel rooms for SRO occupancy and sustain the housing units provided. SRO housing will help address the needs of seasonal farmworkers, seniors and persons with disabilities. • Goal EV-A: Maintain a positive business climate in the community. • Policy EV-A-4: Maintain diversity in the types of jobs available in Santa Rosa to lessen the impact of economic cycles. • Goal EV-B: Provide sufficient land for business expansion and attraction of new employers that utilize the City’s existing labor pool. • Policy EV-B-1: Monitor land use and development trends in the City to ensure an adequate supply of land that offers diverse use designations and development intensities. • Policy EV-B-6: Work with the Santa Rosa Chamber of Commerce to encourage businesses to use the local labor force to reduce commuting impacts on City roadways. • Goal EV-C: Promote new retail and higher density residential uses along the City’s regional/arterial corridors. • Policy EV-C-1: Develop a retail and business services strategy to locate regional and local serving industries, and ensure appropriate location of such uses along major regional/arterial corridors. Incorporate initiatives to retain and expand existing retail and business services uses. Retail and business services need to be located in areas with heavy pass-by traffic, good visibility, and image. • Policy EV-C-3: During pre-application meetings with non-residential developers, discuss General Plan policies relating to the development of retail and residential activities along regional/arterial corridors and mixed uses within Community Shopping Centers. • Goal EV-D: Maintain the economic vitality of business parks, offices, and industrial areas. • Policy EV-D-1: Continue to promote Santa Rosa’s role as a regional center.

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4.10.4 - Methodology Impacts on population, housing, and employment were assessed by reviewing existing and anticipated population, housing, and employment projections provided by the California Department of Finance, California Employment Development Department, ABAG, and the City of Santa Rosa General Plan. The proposed project’s impacts were evaluated by determining their consistency with these estimates and projections.

4.10.5 - Thresholds of Significance According to the CEQA Guidelines’ Appendix G Environmental Checklist, to determine whether impacts to population, housing, and employment are significant environmental effects, the following questions are analyzed and evaluated. Would the project:

a.) Induce substantial population growth in an area, either directly (for example, by proposing new homes and businesses) or indirectly (for example, through extension of roads or other infrastructure)?

b.) Displace substantial numbers of existing housing, necessitating the construction of replacement housing elsewhere?

c.) Displace substantial numbers of people, necessitating the construction of replacement housing elsewhere?

4.10.6 - Project Impacts and Mitigation Measures This section discusses potential impacts associated with the development of the project and provides mitigation measures where appropriate.

Growth Inducement

Impact POP-1: The proposed project would not directly or indirectly induce substantial population growth.

Impact Analysis This impact assesses the proposed project’s potential to induce substantial population growth. There are two types of population growth: direct and indirect. Direct population growth occurs from the development of new residential units. Indirect population growth occurs from the creation of new employment opportunities or the removal of a barrier to growth (e.g., the extension of urban infrastructure to an undeveloped area).

The proposed project would create an estimated 218 new employment opportunities. Of this figure, 200 jobs would be associated with the Lowe’s Home Improvement Warehouse and the remaining 18 opportunities would be associated with the 9,000 square feet of smaller retail uses. The Lowe’s employment estimate was provided by the company, while smaller retail estimate was derived by applying a standard rate of one job per 500 square feet of retail space. Approximately 60 percent of

Michael Brandman Associates 4.10-7 H:\Client (PN-JN)\2498\24980004\DEIR\24980004_Sec04-10 Population, Housing, and Employment.doc Santa Rosa Lowe’s Home Improvement Warehouse Project Population, Housing, and Employment Draft EIR the employment opportunities would be full-time, while the remaining 40 percent would be part-time. Most of the employment opportunities would be entry-level.

Direct or indirect population growth is only considered substantial if it exceeds projections contained in local or regional population forecasts. In this case, the applicable planning and population forecast is ABAG Projections 2007.

The proposed project does not contain any residential uses; therefore, no direct population growth would occur. The proposed project’s new employment opportunities have the potential to indirectly induce growth by attracting workers to Santa Rosa.

Data provided by the California Economic Development Department indicate that, as of July 2008, the City of Santa Rosa had an unemployment rate of 6.0 percent, or 5,100 unemployed persons. For Sonoma County as a whole, the unemployment rate was 6.1 percent or 16,200 unemployed persons. Given the nature of the job opportunities and the availability of labor, it would be expected that the proposed project’s employment opportunities could be readily filled from the local labor force and few if any workers would relocate to Santa Rosa or other parts of Sonoma County because of the new jobs created by the project.

The new jobs created by the proposed project would be within ABAG projections for employment growth in Santa Rosa. As shown in Table 4.10-5, ABAG projects substantial job growth in Santa Rosa, with 7,450 new jobs being created in the five-year period. The retail sector is projected to create 1,020 new jobs during that period. Accordingly, the proposed project’s 218 employment opportunities would be within ABAG employment growth projections for Santa Rosa; therefore, substantial indirect growth would not occur.

Level of Significance Before Mitigation Less than significant impact.

Mitigation Measures No mitigation is necessary.

Level of Significance After Mitigation Less than significant impact.

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Displacement of Housing or Persons

Impact POP-2: The proposed project would not result in the displacement of housing or persons and, therefore, would not require the construction of housing elsewhere.

Impact Analysis This impact addresses the potential for the proposed project to displace housing or persons, including the loss of dwelling units and the conversion of land designated for residential use to non-residential use.

Loss of Dwelling Units The project site does not contain any occupied dwelling units. A mobile home is present on the Hulsman Transportation Co. site, but it is not used as a residence. Therefore, no occupied dwelling units would be displaced as result of the proposed project.

Loss of Land That Could Potentially Be Developed as Affordable Housing The proposed project would result in the re-designation of 2.70 acres of land on the project site contemplated for Medium Density Residential uses to non-residential uses. The loss of this residential acreage has the potential to exacerbate local and regional affordable housing deficiencies, particularly since the land would be re-designated to commercial use, which would create new employment opportunities and result in greater demand for housing.

The City of Santa Rosa re-designated the 2.7-acre portion of 2532 Santa Rosa Avenue from commercial use to Medium Density Residential as part of the most recent General Plan Update in 2002 (2020 General Plan). The 2532 Santa Rosa Avenue property owners—the Hulsman family— indicated that they did not request the re-designation and, furthermore, stated that they have not previously considered, nor are currently considering, developing residential uses on either that parcel or their other adjoining parcel, 325 Yolanda Avenue. City officials indicate that the 2.7 acres of 2532 Santa Rosa Avenue were re-designated to Medium Density Residential during the 2002 General Plan Update as part of an overall planning effort to find sites to meet the housing needs for the City of Santa Rosa. The 2532 Santa Rosa Avenue site, as well as other parcels located on major arterial corridors leading to downtown Santa Rosa, was identified as having the potential to support mixed- use development. As such, all or portions of the parcels were re-designated to medium- or medium high-density residential land use designations.

The City’s current Housing Element was certified by the State in 2003. Since certification, City officials indicate that numerous General Plan Amendments have been processed that have affected residential land supply. As of mid 2008, City officials stated that 20 acres of vacant land have been re-designated to Medium Density Residential use and 22 non-vacant acres of Medium Density Residential land had been re-designated to non-residential use since 2003. City officials noted that these figures do not include changes to mixed-use designations such as Retail/Medium Density Residential or Industry/Medium Density Residential, which, when accounted for, would show a net

Michael Brandman Associates 4.10-9 H:\Client (PN-JN)\2498\24980004\DEIR\24980004_Sec04-10 Population, Housing, and Employment.doc Santa Rosa Lowe’s Home Improvement Warehouse Project Population, Housing, and Employment Draft EIR increase in land designated for Medium Density Residential development. Accordingly, City officials indicated that there are enough sufficient sites designated for Medium Density Residential use to meet the housing needs identified in the 2020 General Plan. Therefore, the re-designation of the 2.7 acres of 2532 Santa Rosa Avenue to Retail and Business Services would not impair the ability of the City to meet its housing obligations under the current Housing Element.

For the purposes of disclosure, it should be acknowledged that the City of Santa Rosa has initiated the next General Plan Update process (General Plan 2035), which is a multi-year planning process that is scheduled to be completed in 2010. As part of the commencement of the General Plan Update process, the City prepared preliminary projections for housing needs. Those initial projections suggest that there may be a shortfall of sufficient residential sites to meet the population growth projections of the General Plan Update, although City staff have acknowledged that such projections may change as the planning process proceeds. At the time of this writing, the General Plan Update is not adopted and, therefore, is not binding policy. Accordingly, it would be speculative to evaluate the proposed General Plan Amendment against the tentative projections contained in planning a document that has not been adopted.

Moreover, there are practical constraints to developing new residential uses on 2532 Santa Rosa Avenue. The 2.7-acre portion of 2532 Santa Rosa Avenue is surrounded by commercial and industrial land use activities on three sides. Of particular concern is the site’s adjacency to the west side of the Redwood Coast Petroleum bulk storage facility, where large quantities of petroleum products are stored and dispensed. The California Air Resources Board Air Quality and Land Use Planning Handbook recommends that new residential uses be sited a minimum of 300 feet away from large gasoline-dispensing facilities, defined as a facility with a throughput of 3.6 million gallons per year or greater. The 2.7-acre portion of 2532 Santa Rosa Avenue is 206.5 feet in north-south length and 569.5 feet in east-west length; therefore, only 1.28 acres of the 2.7-acre site (47 percent) would be outside of the recommended 300-foot buffer area. In addition, the Redwood Coast Petroleum bulk storage facility stores hazardous materials onsite, produces significant noise, and generates numerous truck movements, and these activities are generally considered incompatible with adjoining residential uses. (As discussed in Section 4.8, Land Use, the City of Santa Rosa approved a General Plan Amendment and zone change in 2006 to allow the existing Redwood Coast Petroleum operations to continue; therefore, it can be reasonably assumed that this facility will continue to operate as a petroleum bulk storage facility for the foreseeable future).

Finally, it should be noted that there are no dwelling units on the project site; therefore, no existing affordable housing units would be lost as a result of the development of the proposed project.

For these reasons, the re-designation of the 2.7-acre portion of the project site from residential to non- residential use would not result in the loss of land that could potentially be developed for affordable housing. Impacts would be less than significant.

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Level of Significance Before Mitigation Less than significant impact.

Mitigation Measures No mitigation is necessary.

Level of Significance After Mitigation Less than significant impact.

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