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Regional Housing Needs Allocation Draft Methodology: San Francisco Bay Area, 2023-2031 Association of Bay Area Goverments Executive Board

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Regional Housing Needs Allocation Draft Methodology: San Francisco Bay Area, 2023-2031 Association of Bay Area Goverments Executive Board © Bruce Damonte courtesy MidPen Housing. All rights reserved. REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS ALLOCATION February 2021 DRAFT METHODOLOGY: San Francisco Bay Area, 2023-2031 CONTENTS Executive Board Members and Staff 1 Table 2: Factors and Weights for Draft RHNA Methodology 14 Housing Methodology Committee 2 Table 3: Allocation Factor Data and Members Assumptions 15 Introduction 4 Table 4: Factor Scores by Jurisdiction 20 About the Regional 5 Table 5: RHNA Allocation by Jurisdiction, Housing Needs Allocation with Factor Components 32 Who is Responsible for RHNA? 5 Figure 2: Illustrative Allocations from The Regional Housing Needs Determination 6 Draft Methodology 44 Schedule and Process for Developing the Regional Housing Needs Allocation 7 RHNA Statutory Objectives and Factors 46 Table 1: ABAG Regional Housing Needs RHNA Objectives Determination from HCD 8 46 RHNA Methodology Factors 50 The Draft RHNA Methodology 9 Subregions 60 Housing Methodology Committee 9 Table 6: Final Subregion Shares 60 RHNA Statutory Objectives and Factors 10 Draft RHNA Methodology Performance Next Steps 61 Evaluation 12 Endnotes 62 Draft RHNA Methodology 12 Appendices 63 Figure 1 Draft Methodology Overview 13 II ABAG REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS ALLOCATION DRAFT METHODOLOGY: SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, 2023-2031 ASSOCIATION OF BAY AREA GOVERMENTS EXECUTIVE BOARD Jesse Arreguin, President Carroll Fife Nathan Miley Mayor, City of Berkeley Councilmember, City of Oakland Supervisor, County of Alameda Belia Ramos, Vice President Neysa Fligor Karen Mitchoff Supervisor, County of Napa Mayor, City of Los Altos Supervisor, County of Contra Costa ABAG-MTC STAFF: Matt Maloney David Rabbitt, Leon Garcia Stephanie Moulton-Peters Section Director, Supervisor, County of Sonoma — Mayor, City of American Canyon Supervisor, County of Marin Regional Planning Immediate Past President Liz Gibbons Raul Peralez Mayor, City of Campbell Councilmember, City of San Jose Dave Vautin Assistant Director, Major Plans Candace Andersen Supervisor, County of Contra Costa Giselle Hale Carlos Romero Vice Mayor, Redwood City Mayor, East Palo Alto Gillian Adams Principal Planner Nikki Fortunato Bas Councilmember, City of Oakland Barbara Halliday James Spering Mayor, City of Hayward Supervisor, County of Solano Eli Kaplan London Breed Regional Housing Rich Hillis Loren Taylor Mayor, City and County of Policy Analyst Planning Director, City and County Councilmember, City of Oakland San Francisco of San Francisco Vacant Aksel Olsen Tom Butt Cities in Sonoma County Senior Planner Mayor, City of Richmond Dave Hudson Mayor, City of San Ramon Vacant Leah Zippert David Canepa City and County of San Francisco Supervisor, County of San Mateo Otto Lee Senior Public Information Officer Supervisor, County of Santa Clara (Mayor) Keith Carson Julie Teglovic Supervisor, County of Alameda Matthew Mahan Vacant Public Information Analyst Councilmember, City of San Jose County of San Mateo Cindy Chavez Michele Stone Supervisor, County of Santa Clara Rafael Mandelman Lori Wilson Supervisor, City and County of San Mayor, City of Suisun City Graphic Design Pat Eklund Francisco Mayor, City of Novato Jayne Battey Gordon Mar Board Member, San Francisco Bay Maya Esparza Supervisor, City and County of San Regional Water Quality Control Councilmember, City of San Jose Francisco Board — Advisory Member HOUSING METHODOLOGY COMMITTEE LOCAL JURISDICTION LOCAL JURISDICTION San Francisco County Solano County ELECTED OFFICIALS* STAFF Paolo Ikezoe‡ Matt Walsh Jesse Arreguín, Chair Alameda County Senior Planner, City and County of Principal Planner, Solano County Mayor, City of Berkeley, Alameda Ellen Clark San Francisco David Feinstein County Planning Manager, ‡ Principal Planner, City of Fairfield City of Pleasanton James Pappas Julie Pierce Senior Planner, City and County of (Alternate) Mayor, City of Clayton, Contra Costa Darin Ranelletti San Francisco County Policy Director for Housing Sonoma County Security, City of Oakland San Mateo County Jane Riley Pat Eklund Josh Abrams+ Comprehensive Planning Manager, Councilmember, City of Novato, Contra Costa County Baird + Driskell Community Sonoma County Marin County Forrest Ebbs Planning, Staff to 21 Elements Community Development Director, Milan Nevajda + Deputy Planning Director, Sonoma Diane Dillon City of Antioch Nell Selander Supervisor, County of Napa Deputy Director, Economic & County (Alternate) Mindy Gentry Community Development, City of Rick Bonilla Planning Manager, City of Concord South San Francisco Noah Housh Councilmember, City of San Mateo, Community Development Director, San Mateo County Andrea Ouse Santa Clara County City of Cotati (Alternate) Community Development Director, Michael Brilliot Neysa Fligor City of Concord (Alternate) Councilmember, City of Los Altos, Deputy Director for Citywide REGIONAL STAKEHOLDERS Santa Clara County Planning, City of San Jose Marin County Social Equity Monica Brown Elise Semonian Aarti Shrivastava Assistant City Manager/Community Victoria Fierce Supervisor, Solano County Planning Director, Town of California Renter Legal Advocacy Development Director, City of San Anselmo and Education Fund (CaRLA) John Vasquez Mountain View Supervisor, Solano County Ethan Guy Jeffrey Levin (Alternate) Principal Analyst, City of San Rafael Jennifer Carman East Bay Housing Organizations Development Services Director, City (Alternate) (EBHO) Susan Adams of Morgan Hill (Alternate) Councilmember, City of Rohnert Napa County Fernando Marti Park, Sonoma County Vin Smith Andrew Crabtree Council of Community Housing Community Development Director, Community Development Director, Organizations City of Napa City of Santa Clara (Alternate) * The City and County of San Francisco did not appoint an elected + Both served on HMC, Selander replaced Abrams official representative ‡ Both served on HMC, Pappas replaced Ikezoe 2 ABAG REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS ALLOCATION DRAFT METHODOLOGY: SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, 2023-2031 Business Community Philanthropy Russell Hancock Rupinder (Ruby) Bolaria Joint Venture Silicon Valley Shifrin Chan Zuckerberg Initative Matt Regan Bay Area Council Public/Alternative Transportation Xiomara Cisneros Bay Area Council (Alternate) Bob Planthold Government and Community Non-Profit Housing Advocates Strategies, Inc. Welton Jordan EAH Housing RPC Housing Subcommittee Rodney K. Nickens, Jr. Carlos Romero Non-Profit Housing Association of Urban Ecology Northern California (NPH) Labor For-Profit Housing Scott Littlehale Paul Campos Northern California Carpenters Building Industry Association of the Regional Council Bay Area (BIA) State Partner Jonathan Fearn Tawny Macedo Greystar Development California Department of Housing & Community Development (HCD) Open Space/Agriculture Amanda Brown-Stevens Tom Brinkhuis Greenbelt Alliance HCD (Alternate) Public Education Megan Kirkeby HCD (Alternate) Brandon Kline San Francisco State University Public Health Anita Addison La Clinica de la Raza © Martin Klimek. All Rights Reserved. Klimek. © Martin HMC ROSTER RHNA 3 INTRODUCTION Since 1969, the State of California has required Moving from the Proposed RHNA Methodology to the each local government to plan for its share Draft RHNA Methodology of the state’s housing needs for people of The ABAG Executive Board approved the release of all income levels. Through the Regional the proposed RHNA methodology for public comment Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) process, on October 15, 2020. As required by law, ABAG every local jurisdiction is assigned a number held a public comment period from October 25 to of housing units November 27 and conducted a public hearing at the representing its November 12 meeting of the ABAG Regional share of the state’s Planning Committee. These comments provided perspectives from over 200 local government housing needs for SONOMA NAPA staff and elected officials, advocacy organizations, an eight-year period. SOLANO and members of the public. A summary of the State Housing Element public comments received and staff responses is Law requires the MARIN available on the ABAG website. Association of Bay Area CONTRA COSTA SAN The components of the draft RHNA methodology Governments (ABAG) to FRANCISCO ALAMEDA are primarily the same as the proposed RHNA develop a methodology for SAN methodology. However, the draft RHNA distributing the Bay Area’s MATEO methodology incorporates future year 2050 SANTA CLARA portion of the state housing households data from the Plan Bay Area 2050 needs to local governments Final Blueprint. Integrating the updated data within the nine-county region, about future year 2050 households from the including reporting on the Final Blueprint into the draft RHNA methodology draft methodology. This report results in changes to the illustrative allocations contains the data and assumptions involved in to local jurisdictions, described in more detail in this developing the draft methodology, and it also report. Additionally, in response to feedback received explains how the draft methodology takes into during the public comment period, the ABAG Regional account key statutory factors and meets five Planning Committee and Executive Board voted to incorporate the “equity adjustment” (described in key objectives as outlined in Housing Element more detail on page 17) as part of the Draft RHNA Law.1 Methodology approved in January 2021. 4 ABAG REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS ALLOCATION DRAFT METHODOLOGY: SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, 2023-2031 ABOUT THE REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS ALLOCATION The RHNA process identifies the total number of make decisions about
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