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Estimating Economic Losses in the Bay Area from a Magnitude-6.9 Earthquake

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Estimating Economic Losses in the Bay Area from a Magnitude-6.9 Earthquake Regional Economic Losses Estimating economic losses in the Bay Area from a magnitude-6.9 earthquake Data from the BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages are used to analyze potential business and economic losses resulting from an earthquake on the Hayward Fault in northern California Richard J. Holden, ccording to the U.S. Geologi- formation—can be used to assess potential Donna Bahls, cal Survey, the Hayward Fault in business and economic losses from a major and Charles Real Anorthern California generates, on earthquake. (Such an approach could also average, “a damaging earthquake every 150 be used to assess the damages from other years.” The Hayward Fault is considered natural disasters.) Labor market analysts “the single most dangerous fault in the en- from the California Employment Devel- tire Bay Area because it is ready to pop and opment Department overlaid employment because nearly 2 million people live directly data from the QCEW onto seismic hazard on top of it.”1 The last major earthquake on information provided by the California the Hayward Fault occurred 139 years ago, Geological Survey to produce maps and in 1868. It was known as the “Great San tabulations that correlate estimated shak- Francisco Earthquake” until 1906, when the ing intensities with employment levels for city experienced a larger and more damag- the counties in the San Francisco Bay Area ing earthquake on the San Andreas Fault. that lie along the Hayward Fault. The Hayward Fault underlies Alameda County, a heavily populated urban area in Methodology northern California that is home to 41,000 employers, 682,000 employees, and a total quarterly payroll of $9.3 billion. In addition, Two sets of data were prepared for this Alameda County lies over approximately analysis. First, the California Geological three-fourths of the length of the fault and Survey produced a geographic file with therefore faces the greatest potential expo- Modified Mercalli Intensities (MMI) for sure to a damaging earthquake occurring on the San Francisco Bay Area. The MMI scale the fault. Geologists estimate that the fault gauges the level of intensity of the effects has a 27-percent chance of experiencing a of an earthquake at different sites. Inten- Richard J. Holden is Regional Commissioner, San Francisco seismic event by 2032. sity differs from magnitude in that the regional office, U.S. Bureau of This article analyzes and maps employer effects of any one earthquake vary greatly Labor Statistics; Donna Bahls is a geographic information data on employment and wages to assess from place to place, depending on a num- specialist (GIS) in the California Employment Development potential business and economic losses ber of factors, including the area’s proxim- Department, Labor Market from a magnitude-6.9 earthquake in north- ity to the quake’s epicenter, its population Information Division; Charles Real is Supervising Engineering ern California along the Hayward Fault. density, and the number of buildings and Geologist, California Geological Survey, Seismic Hazard Assess- The article uses data from the BLS Quar- other structures located there. The MMI ment Program. E-mail: holden. terly Census of Employment and Wages scale has twelve levels, ranging from barely [email protected]; lmid.dbahls@ edd.ca.gov; chuck.real@con- (QCEW) to demonstrate how these data— noticeable (I) to catastrophic (XII). For this servation.ca.gov. when combined with seismic hazards in- analysis, the file delineated the geography 16 Monthly Labor Review • December 2007 of the MMI zones from level VI (strong shaking, light dam- and Contra Costa. But the vast majority (87 to 89 percent) of age) to level VIII and higher (severe shaking, moderate to the employment and earnings exposure in the MMI-VIII-or- heavy damage). Although the MMI is an ordinal scale, it higher shaking zone would fall in Alameda County. correlates closely with measured shaking levels and is, by definition, a measure of damage. Alameda County. Table 2 shows similar data for Alameda The second data set was prepared by the California County only. The table shows that approximately 90 per- Employment Development Department (EDD) using the cent of the businesses, employees, and payrolls in Alameda geocoded 2006 employer data from the Quarterly Cen- County are located in the two most intense shaking zones sus of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which collects on the map (MMI VII and MMI VIII or higher). Thus, these information on establishments for unemployment insur- two zones include more than 600,000 employees who earn ance taxes purposes. The QCEW data are edited by staff a total of $8.2 billion in quarterly wages. In addition, more from EDD and BLS to improve their usefulness for eco- than half of the businesses, employees, and payrolls in the nomic analysis and planning. The employment data used county are located in the MMI-VIII-or-higher zone, the one here include the major proximate Eastern San Francisco characterized by severe shaking and moderate to heavy Bay Area counties, with particular emphasis on Alameda damage. These figures demonstrate that an interruption County, because it encompasses the most densely popu- to business resulting from an magnitude-6.9 earthquake lated areas around the Hayward Fault, from Fremont in on the Hayward Fault would likely affect nearly all busi- the southern part of the county to Berkeley in the north. nesses and employees in Alameda County. EDD then produced industry tabulations that array po- tential exposures by industry and number of employers, Industry analysis. The exposure to various industries employment, and quarterly wages within the MMI shak- ranges widely, but as chart 1 shows, it is particularly acute ing intensity zones. These tabulations were then compared in health care and social assistance, educational services, with countywide data. manufacturing, and retail trade. The potential widespread economic consequences to San Francisco Bay Area em- Analysis ployers and workers would most likely have a large impact on both the State and national economies. As mentioned previously, Alameda County has 41,000 employers, with 682,000 employees and a total quarterly Earthquake losses compared with Katrina losses payroll of $9.3 billion. Because the County encompasses roughly three-fourths of the length of the Hayward Fault, Because a similar methodology has been used to estimate it is the most exposed county in the region, in terms of po- business exposures resulting from Hurricane Katrina— tential damage from earthquakes occurring on the fault. that is, the use of geocoded employer data and disaster Map 1 delineates the shaking intensity zones that zones—it is instructive to compare these analyses. Hurri- would occur throughout the San Francisco Bay area in cane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast in August 2005, with the event of a magnitude-6.9 earthquake. As is appar- Louisiana and Mississippi experiencing the worst effects ent, most of the areas with MMI levels of VIII or greater of the storm. Shortly after Katrina struck, BLS and EDD (shown in red) are in Alameda County. Map 2 shows conducted analyses of businesses, employment, and quar- the locations of employers in the area overlaid onto the terly wages in an attempt to understand the wide-ranging shaking intensity zones. As can be seen from the map, a economic effects of this event. In this case, employment large number of employers are located in areas that are analysts from California, at the direction of BLS, were able expected to experience the greatest shaking intensities. to use Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) identified damage areas (IDA), which had been mapped The Bay Area. Table 1 shows total exposures in the nine coun- and converted into shape files. Analysts from California ties in the San Francisco Bay Area that are in MMI zone VII had undertaken this work because of their prior success- and those in zone VIII or higher. As can be seen in the table, ful experience in mapping another regional disaster—the the two zones combined include 87,000 employers, 1.5 mil- firestorms that struck southern California in October and lion jobs, and quarterly wages approaching $25 billion. In the November 2003. wide area circumscribed by both zones, the employment and Of course, flood losses are fundamentally different earnings exposures would fall, in descending order, primarily from earthquake losses in that flood waters inundate land upon the counties of Alameda, Santa Clara, San Francisco, and buildings. With earthquakes, the effect is differenti- Monthly Labor Review • December 2007 17 Regional Economic Losses Map 1. San Francisco Bay Area shaking intensity zones from a magnitude-6.9 earthquake on the Hayward Fault 0RGL¿HG0HUFDOOL,QWHQVLW\6FDOH]RQHYDOXH VIII or greater: severe shaking, moderate to heavy damage VII: very strong shaking, moderate damage VI: strong shaking, light damage V: moderate shaking, very light damage IV: light shaking, no damage — Fault lines SOURCE: Modified Mercalli Intensity shape files from the California Geological Survey. ated by the variety of building construction, site condi- were compared with losses from Hurricane Katrina in the tions, and ground motion levels at the site. Nonetheless, FEMA IDAs plus an additional one-half mile encompass- the example of Katrina illustrates that mapping expected ing the FEMA IDAs. (See tables 2 and 3.) Although the hazard zones against business data can yield results that Katrina exposures in Louisiana were extensive, the expo- correspond closely with actual employment losses. This sures in Alameda County from a magnitude-6.9 earth- analysis shows that Hurricane Katrina had a major impact quake on the Hayward Fault would be much greater—20 on the economies of Louisiana and Mississippi. percent more businesses, 22 percent more employees, and Losses in MMI zones VII and VIII or higher that result 74 percent more in payroll earnings.
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