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Home , Dadullah, Dexter Filkins

march 2010 . Vol 3 . Issue 3

The Arrest Wave Muhammad Yunos. According to -controlled channels. This media reports, yet denied by sources article contends that the arrests may be in Pakistan: Reasserting close to the Taliban, a number of other an attempt by the Pakistani government Strategic Depth? prominent leaders have also been to regain control over the Afghan arrested, including former Taliban’s political agenda and, in a By Thomas Ruttig governor Mullah Muhammad Hassan broader sense, over the “reconciliation” Rahmani, former Herat and process announced by Afghan President in less than a month, Pakistan’s corps commander Mullah Abdul Ra’uf, Hamid Karzai. authorities have arrested a number of and former Guantanamo Bay detainee Afghan Taliban leaders. Most of the and Taliban commander in southern Suspicious Arrests arrests have taken place in Karachi and Mullah Abdul Qayum The string of arrests raises questions on in the North-West Frontier Province Zaker. Moreover, on February 28 whether they will affect Afghan Taliban (NWFP). The first in the chain of Pakistani security officials announced operations in the long-term. Without arrests was Mullah Abdul Ghani that Mullah Omar’s close adviser, a doubt, Mullah Baradar’s arrest is a Baradar, the Afghan Taliban’s second- Seyyed Tayyeb Agha, was arrested serious blow to the Afghan Taliban; it in-command behind Mullah Omar, in Karachi,5 and on March 4 Taliban hampers their military operations at who was apprehended on February finance minister and reportedly Mullah a time when they are under pressure 11, 2010.1 Baradar took control as the Omar’s son-in-law Agha Jan Mo’tassem in Helmand and Kandahar provinces. Afghan Taliban’s military leader after was also apprehended in Karachi.6 Nevertheless, the Taliban have proved the arrest of former Taliban Defense adept at substituting even high-ranking Minister Mullah Obaidullah in early The wave of arrests follows years of leaders quickly and without losing much 2007.2 Before his recent arrest, Baradar meager results in capturing Afghan operational effectiveness. Neither the also led the Taliban’s second-highest Taliban leaders in Pakistan. The arrests arrest of Obaidullah nor the killings in authority, the Leadership Council, or have been perceived in the 2006 and 2007 of Akhtar Muhammad rahbari shura. as a veritable about-face in Pakistan’s Usmani and Mullah Dadullah have counterterrorism policy. U.S. Special slowed their pace. In contrast, the Baradar’s arrest was followed by Envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan Taliban movement has grown in strength the capture of the Taliban’s shadow Richard Holbrooke, for example, called from year to year, and the organization governors for Afghanistan’s Kunduz the arrests “another high-water mark for is operating in more areas than ever and Baghlan provinces—Mullah Abdul Pakistani and American collaboration.”7 before. Salam and Mullah Mir Muhammad—in Bruce Riedel, who led the Barack addition to former Taliban acting Prime Obama administration’s policy review The more critical question is why Minister Maulawi Kabir3 and former on both countries in spring 2009, called Pakistan’s authorities have decided shadow governor and the arrest of Baradar a “sea change in to move against these militants— head of “the commission”4 Maulawi Pakistani behavior.”8 or publicized previous arrests—at this time. All of the Afghan Taliban 1 and Dexter Filkins, “Secret Joint Raid A closer look, however, reveals that the militants recently arrested in Pakistan Captures Taliban’s Top Commander,” New York Times, arrests may not represent a clear change were apprehended under suspicious February 15, 2010. On Mullah Baradar’s background, in Pakistan’s policy toward the Afghan circumstances. Maulawi Kabir’s see Ron Moreau, “America’s New Nightmare,” News- Taliban. All of those recently arrested whereabouts, for example, had been week, July 25, 2009; Thomas Ruttig, “How ‘Neo’ Were were seeking political negotiations with known for some time. A German the ‘Neo-Taleban’?” The Afghanistan Analysts Network, the Afghan government, circumventing journalist described how UN officials March 5, 2010. were easily able to locate Kabir in the 2 Mullah Obaidullah’s current status is unclear. He was third edition of the code-of-conduct for Taliban fighters Pakistani town of Nowshera in the reported arrested (or put under house arrest) in Febru- issued in the name of Mullah Omar in mid-2009. On the NWFP last year where he occupied a ary-March 2007 and in February 2008 again. Then, he “commission,” also see Thomas Ruttig, “The Other Side: posh house and was driving a large SUV 9 was reportedly exchanged for the abducted designated Dimensions of the Afghan Insurgency. Causes, Actors with diplomatic license plates. The Pakistani ambassador to Kabul in May 2008. For de- and Approaches to Talks,” The Afghanistan Analysts same journalist reported a temporary tails, see Shahnawaz Khan, “Security Agencies Arrest Network, July 2009. arrest of , the Mullah Obaidullah Again,” Daily Times, February 25, 5 Rezaul H. Laskar, “Afghan Taliban Leader Agha Jan military leader of the semi-autonomous 10 2008; Aamer Khan, “Ex-Taliban Minister Swapped for Arrested in Karachi,” Outlook India, March 4, 2010. , in Pakistan. Envoy,” Pajhwok Afghan News, May 20, 2008; Jona- 6 Anand Gopal, “Half of Afghanistan Taliban Leader- than S. Landay, “Why Hasn’t the U.S. Gone After Mullah ship Arrested in Pakistan,” Christian Science Monitor, There are also the cases of Maulawi Omar in Pakistan?” McClatchy Newspapers, November February 24, 2010; Deb Riechmann and Munir Ahmad, Muhammad Yunos and Abdul Ahad 16, 2008. “Pakistani Officials: Nearly 15 Top Taliban Held,” Asso- Jehangirwal, along with Seyyed Tayyeb 3 Some observers believe that Maulawi Kabir is a mem- ciated Press, February 25, 2010; “Pakistan: Key Taliban Agha, Mullah Omar’s “aides-de-camp.” ber of the rahbari shura under the nom-de-guerre of Mul- Leader ‘Held in Karachi,’” AKI News Agency, March 4, lah Qaher. 2010; Personal interviews, anonymous contacts, Kabul, 9 Willi Germund, “Rentable Verhaftungen,” St. Galler 4 “The commission” was a Taliban body that traveled Afghanistan, March 2010. Tagblatt, March 2, 2010; Christoph Reuter, “Some Birds through various provinces to question the Afghan popu- 7 Chris Allbritton, “Holbrooke Hails Pakistan-U.S. Col- with One Stone,” The Afghanistan Analysts Network, lation about the behavior of local Taliban commanders. laboration on Taliban,” , February 18, 2010. undated. This happened after the publication of the layha, the 8 Ibid.; Mazzetti et al. 10 Ibid.

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Sources close to the Taliban confirm that During 2007 and 2008, there was a Taliban actions. Although Pakistan has Yunos has been in Pakistani custody relatively strong current within the officially dropped its “strategic depth” since September or October 2009 and Kandahari mainstream of the Afghan policy, a future conflict with India Jehangirwal for almost a year, but their Taliban that recognized they would remains its number one security concern. arrests only became known recently.11 not be able to achieve victory—defined As a result, establishing a friendly or as reestablishing the Islamic Emirate even clientele government in Kabul still The timing of the arrests and of Afghanistan—by military means, ranks high on Pakistan’s agenda, and announcements suggest that Pakistan or that it would at least be too costly the Afghan Taliban are considered a is detaining Afghan Taliban elements in terms of human lives. Similar to core element of this strategy. who are seeking political negotiations the United States and NATO forces in independent of official Pakistani Afghanistan, the Afghan Taliban also Although the Afghan Taliban depend channels. All of the recently arrested suffer from a civilian casualty problem on Pakistani support—in the form of militants fit into this category. that has cost them support from the local safe havens, logistical and possibly population.15 These elements, labeled financial support, and the ability to Arrested Militants Seeking Peace Deals with “pious Taliban” by some Afghans, move unhindered in parts of Pakistan Afghan Government consider suicide attacks that cause high and over the border with Afghanistan— One strong theory of why Pakistan has numbers of Afghan civilian casualties their current leaders were never mere moved against these militants at the as “un-Islamic” and reacted to them by puppets in the hands of the ISI. Mullah present time is due to what has been issuing the layha (code of conduct for Baradar—who belongs to the same dubbed “talk about talks”—the decision Taliban fighters) that provides for care tribe as President Hamid Karzai, the over whether the Afghan government concerning civilians during attacks.16 Popalzai—seems to have circumvented and its international supporters should These “pious Taliban” also may Pakistan-controlled channels by relying negotiate with the Afghan Taliban. This have had a role—by providing inside on shared “blood links” to establish debate has heated up since the “Mecca information—in the killing of Mullah links to Karzai family members in an talks” in the fall of 2008, when the Dadullah in 2007, who was the most effort to discuss “reconciliation.”18 Saudi government invited an Afghan notorious proponent of the Taliban’s Indeed, according to one of Karzai’s delegation composed of government hardcore terrorist tendencies. Dadullah advisers, the president was “very members, parliamentarians and former copied the methods of Abu Mus`ab angry” at Baradar’s arrest because the Taliban leaders for a reception to al-Zarqawi, and it is believed that the Taliban leader had been “given a green break the fast during the holy month of Afghan Taliban’s shura decided light” to participate in a peace jirga that Ramadan.12 The latest incident occurred that Dadullah was out of control. Karzai is hosting in April.19 Therefore, after a press leak about a Dubai meeting the arrests can be viewed as a warning between UN Afghanistan Envoy Kai This Taliban current also had been to Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Omar Eide and Taliban “commanders” discussing the usefulness of a political himself that “he also can be drawn out of supposedly sent by Mullah Baradar solution that would involve the Afghan his hiding place” in case his supporters in January 2010.13 For the first time, government and possibly its foreign do not follow Pakistan’s agenda.20 Afghan President Hamid Karzai drafted allies. Baradar, Kabir, Yunos and a policy document for reconciliation and Mo’tassem17 all belong to the Taliban Separately, the arrests also prove that reintegration that found support and faction considering talks with the Afghan Afghan Taliban leaders use sanctuaries funding at the international Afghanistan government. Their arrests suggest that inside Pakistan, a fact that Islamabad conference held in London in January Pakistan’s military wants to resume full consistently denies. Yet Pakistan’s 2010. Afghan parliamentarians, some control over any future reconciliation military chief, General Ashfaq Parvez leaders of Hizb-i-Islami and two Islamic talks between the Afghan government Kayani, recently tacitly admitted this scholars close to the Afghan Taliban and the Taliban. Although the reports fact by offering to NATO that Pakistan from Pakistan met in the Maldives at on Saudi, Dubai and Maldives contacts would be willing to open communication the same time.14 were likely overblown, it appears that channels with the Taliban on all levels.21 Pakistan wanted to put a stop even to A high-ranking official in Islamabad’s 11 Personal interview, sources close to the Taliban, the slightest inclination of independent foreign office was even blunter: “We March 2010. have considerable influence on the 12 According to unconfirmed rumors, Mullah Omar’s 2010; Personal interviews, participants of the Maldives Taliban and will play our role in 22 adviser, Tayyeb Agha, also had attended the meeting. meeting, Kabul, Afghanistan, March 2010. securing peace in Afghanistan.” The 13 The Afghan Taliban and the later de- 15 In general, the United Nations stated that the Tali- nied that the meeting had ever taken place. For details, ban accounted for 67% of all civilian deaths in 2009. 18 Personal interviews, former Taliban and Afghan gov- see Dexter Filkins, “U.N. Mission Head in Afghanistan For details, see “Over 2,400 Civilian Deaths in 2009 – ernment officials, Kabul, Afghanistan, February-March Met With Taliban Envoys,” New York Times, January 29, UNAMA,” IRIN, January 13, 2010. 2010. 2010; “Afghan Taliban Deny Peace Talks With UN’s Kai 16 Personal interviews, former Taliban members and 19 “Aide: Karzai ‘Very Angry’ at Taliban Boss’ Arrest,” Eide,” BBC, January 30, 2010. Afghans close to the insurgency, 2008-2009. Also see Associated Press, March 16, 2010. 14 Julian Borger, “UN in Secret Peace Talks with Tali- Ruttig, “The Other Side.” 20 Hamed, “Aya nasl-e jadidi dar rah ast?” Hasht-e Sobh ban,” Guardian, January 28, 2010; John Simpson, “Peace 17 Mo’tassem headed the Taliban’s political commission, [Kabul], March 6, 2010. Scheme Mooted for Taliban,” BBC, January 21, 2010; responsible for pursuing talks during the “thaw period” 21 Jane Perlez, “Pakistan is Said to Pursue Role in U.S.- Zubair Babakarkhel, “Delegations Formed to Try Bro- after Mullah Dadullah’s death. Mo’tassem was removed Afghan Talks,” New York Times, February 9, 2010. ker Afghan Peace,” Pajhwok Afghan News, February 2, from this position in early 2009. 22 Willi Germund, “Pakistan lässt Taliban-Chef

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New York Times even called the arrests a number of strategically significant cities, “strategic coup for Pakistan” because it Untangling the Punjabi such as the garrison city of Rawalpindi, restores control over the Taliban, draws Taliban Network Lahore, Multan and Gujranwala. applause from the United States and Moreover, the country’s civil and even releases U.S. money.23 By Raheel Khan military recruits are drawn mainly from the province. Any destabilization Conclusion since 2006, pakistan has been victim to of Punjab Province would have dire For Pakistan, the Afghan Taliban remain rising terrorist violence from a nexus of ramifications for Pakistan and would a card to be played after an expected militant factions consisting of al-Qa`ida, also endanger international coalition departure of most Western troops from Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and operations in Afghanistan.6 Afghanistan. The arrests epitomize fighters from Punjab-based militant the ISI’s strategic manipulation of groups.1 All three entities share a The threat has become increasingly its assets in Afghanistan and might common, violent Islamist ideology, and serious. In September 2008, alleged result in the emergence of an entirely they have solidified bonds in response to militants of Punjabi origin were new Taliban leadership that would Pakistan limiting its operations against interrogated in the wake of the al- replace the founders’ generation.24 The Indian-administered Kashmir, while Qa`ida-linked Marriott Hotel bombing new leadership would be composed at the same time expanding operations in Islamabad that killed more than 50 of unknown and likely younger, more against Pakistani Taliban factions in its people.7 On March 3, 2009, Punjabi radical newcomers trained in Pakistani northwest.2 These factors have caused militants attacked the visiting Sri madrasas. These militants would be less previously disparate groups to join Lankan cricket team in the Punjab in touch with Afghanistan’s realities together against a common enemy, the capital city of Lahore, killing eight than the older Taliban generation that Pakistani government, which is allied people.8 On March 30, 2009, a police participated in the anti-Soviet war, and with the United States and NATO in training center just outside Lahore they would be more prone to listening the “war on terrorism.” As a result of was attacked and eight people killed.9 to Pakistan’s military and intelligence these developments, Punjab Province The unprecedented assault on the services. They would, in effect, be the itself is increasingly at risk. Punjabi military’s General Headquarters (GHQ) real “neo-Taliban.” Pakistan’s “strategic militants have established cells across in the garrison city of Rawalpindi depth” strategy, which has officially the province, and according to security on October 10, 2009 displayed the been discarded, is very much alive. officials are running their own training growing sophistication and intent of the facilities in southern Punjab.3 The March network.10 Finally, on October 15, 2009, For Afghanistan, however, the arrests 12, 2010 twin suicide blasts that killed at three teams of militants launched a have at least temporarily closed the least 45 people in a high security area of coordinated assault in Lahore, attacking window of opportunity for direct talks Lahore underscored this concern.4 the regional headquarters of the Federal with the Afghan Taliban leadership. As Investigation Agency, the Manawan a result, the fighting in Afghanistan will Punjab Province is Pakistan’s most Police Training School, and the Elite continue and President Karzai’s peace critical region. Geographically, it is Police Academy; the combined assault jirga announced for mid-spring may run Pakistan’s heartland and the country’s killed more than 30 people.11 Attacks aground before it even begins. most populated province.5 It contains a have continued into 2010.

Thomas Ruttig is a Co-Director and Senior 1 The Punjabi Taliban comprise members from a num- This nexus of militants has evolved Analyst of The Afghanistan Analysts ber of Punjab-based groups that were formerly focused significantly since it first emerged Network (AAN), an independent think- on Indian-administered Kashmir or on sectarian attacks in 2006-2007. Although the tank based in Kabul and Berlin. Since against the Shi`a community in Pakistan. The Pun- sophistication and intensity of their 1983, he has spent 10 years in Afghanistan, jabi Taliban include members from Lashkar-i-Jhangvi, among other assignments as head of the UN Jaysh-i-Muhammad and Sipah-i-Sahaba Pakistan— million people live in Punjab Province. Special Mission to Afghanistan (UNSMA) fighters from other Punjab-based groups may- bein 6 Sabrina Tavernise, Richard A. Oppel Jr. and Eric office in Kabul in 2000-2001 under the volved as well. For more details, see Issam Ahmed, “Why Schmitt, “United Militants Threaten Pakistan’s Popu- Taliban regime. He speaks Pashtu and Pakistan’s Old Jehadis Pose New Threat—At Home and lous Heart,” New York Times, April 13, 2009. Dari. in Afghanistan,” Christian Science Monitor, December 8, 7 The suspected militants were alleged members of 2009; Kachan Lakshman, “Heartland Trauma,” Kashmir Lashkar-i-Jhangvi and Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islam. For Herald, February 7, 2010; Raza Khan and Ayesha Nasir, details, see Amir Mir, “South Punjab Threat,” The News “Punjabi Taliban Threat is Growing, Pakistan Fears Shift International, October 25, 2009. For the al-Qa`ida-link, auffliegen,””Salzburger Nachrichten, February 17, 2010. in Control,” Washington Times, October 21, 2009. see “Pakistan al-Qaeda Leaders ‘Dead,’” BBC, January 9, 23 Carlotta Gall and Souad Mekhennet, “Arrest of Tali- 2 Pakistan’s northwest consists of the Federally Admin- 2009. ban Chief May Be Crucial for Pakistanis,” New York istered Tribal Areas and North-West Frontier Province. 8 Ibid. Also see “‘Cricket Attacker’ Held in Lahore,” Times, February 16, 2010. 3 Alex Rodriguez, “Taliban Taps the Punjab Heartland,” BBC, June 17, 2009. 24 Similarly, immediately before the Afghan presidential , November 16, 2009. 9 “Siege at Pakistan Police Academy,” BBC, March 30, elections of August 2009, the author received reports 4 Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan claimed responsibility for 2009. that the ISI had pressured Taliban commanders to go the attack. For details, see “At Least 37 Killed in Pakistan 10 “Six Soldiers, Four Assailants Killed in Attack on fight inside Afghanistan or otherwise be handed over Bombings,” CNN, March 12, 2010; “TTP Claim Lahore GHQ,” Dawn, October 10, 2009. to the United States and sent to the detention facility at Bombings; 39 Dead,” Geo TV, March 12, 2010. 11 Jane Perlez, “Pakistan Attacks Show Tighter Militant Guantanamo Bay. 5 According to 1998 census numbers, approximately 72 Links,” New York Times, October 15, 2009.

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