STATEWIDE MUTUAL PROGRAM CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT PORT MACQUARIE HASTINGS COUNCIL

28 AUGUST 2020

Climate Change Assessment – Port Macquarie Hastings Council – August 2020 1

Prepared for Assumptions & Limitations

Port Macquarie Hastings Council It is understood that there is a level of uncertainty regarding climate change projections, including those for New South Wales. JLT Developed by acknowledges that climate change data may change, and has committed to the scenarios available at the time of the assessments. Statewide Mutual The focus of the Climate Change Risk Assessments is one of Editorial Team understanding the risk exposure – not adaptation or mitigation.

Mrs Ellie Diaz, Principal Use of this Report

This report has been prepared by JLT on behalf of Statewide Mutual for Council for the purpose of providing an informed view of the Disclaimer Council’s approach to Climate Change Risk Management.

The Climate Change Risk Management Assessments contained within this report have been developed solely on the site-specific information supplied by various participants and have been prima facie accepted by the authors of this report. The information has not been independently verified for accuracy. JLT accepts no responsibility for any loss that arises out of Council having failed to bring all relevant facts to our attention or having provided inaccurate information.

Climate Change Assessment – Port Macquarie Hastings Council – August 2020 1

Table of Contents

Executive Summary 4

Analysis of all Impacts 5

Methodology 9

Climate Change Risk Assessment 11

Summary of Risks Requiring Future Adaptation Planning 19

What is Next 21 Recommendations 21

Appendices 22 Appendix 1 – Participation 22

Appendix 2 - Consequence and Likelihood Descriptors 23 Appendix 3 - Risk Evaluation Matrix 25 Appendix 4 - Climate Change Scenarios Functional Areas and Success Criteria 26 Appendix 5 - Functional Areas Distribution 29

Climate Change Assessment – Port Macquarie Hastings Council – August 2020 2

Executive Summary

Port Macquarie Hastings Council, as member of the Statewide Mutual The NSW and ACT Governments and the Climate Change Research Liability Scheme (Statewide Mutual) selected to participate in the Climate Centre (NARCliM) at the University of NSW, together with other NSW Change Risk Assessment program proudly offered to member Councils Government authorities have partnered to develop Regional Climate as part of its series of funded initiatives. Modelling for key catchment areas with climate change projections at a regional scale through interactive mapping. Statewide Mutual understands the impact that Climate Change can The workshop made use of the projected impacts of climate variation that potentially have on Council operations and the importance of are specifically related to its region, thus providing a more accurate understanding the risks associated. assessment of the impacts on Port Macquarie Hastings Council. Port Macquarie Hastings Council participated in the Climate Change Risk This report outlines the findings and results of the risk assessment based Assessment workshop on 28 August 2020 with representation from most on the applied methodology. areas of the organisation and identified a total of 16 risks; the ratings as The following illustrates the result of the risk assessment. follows.

One (1) risk rated LOW

Fifteen (15) risks rated MEDIUM

Nil (0) risks rated HIGH

Nil (0) risks rated EXTREME

This project was undertaken using the latest Climate data and scenarios available.

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Analysis of all Impacts

Table 1 – Number of Risks per Scenario and Risk Rating Table 1 Ranking Total Table 1 - Impact Rankings by Scenario Impacts Temperature Hot Days Rain Sea Level Low 0 1 0 0 Low 1 Medium 0 3 8 4 Medium 15 High 0 0 0 0 High 0 Extreme 0 0 0 0 Extreme 0 0 4 8 4 16 16

Figure 1 - Ranking - All Impacts

0, 0% 0, 0%

1, 6%

15, 94%

Low Medium High Extreme

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Figure 2 - Impact Ranking by Scenario

0 8

7

6

5

0 8 0 4

3 3 4 2

1 1 0 0 0 0 0 Temperature Hot Days Rain Fire Weather Sea Level

Low Medium High Extreme

Climate Change Assessment – Port Macquarie Hastings Council – August 2020 6

Figure 3 - Impact by Functional Area

12

10

8

6 11

4

2 2 2 1 0 0 0 Infrastructure & Land-use Emergency Environment Community Corporate Assets Planning and Management & Management & Services Services Development Natural Disaster Protection Preparedness

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Figure 4 - Impact by Success Criteria

6

5

4

6 3

4 4 2

1 1 1

0 A - Public Safety B - Protect and C - Protect existing D - Sustain and E - Ensure sound enhance the local community enhance the physical public administration economy structures and the and natural and governance lifestyle enjoyed by environment the local people

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Methodology

The Climate Change Risk Assessment process is broken down into . three stages:

 Research on the relevant Climate data

 Workshop facilitation and  Development of a report outlining the risk assessment results.

The process is facilitated by a JLT Consultant on behalf of Statewide Mutual. The Consultant’s role is to guide attendees through the risk assessment process utilising Climate specific tools and information.

Central to the process is the Australian Standard for Risk management – AS ISO 31000 and provides the framework for assessing climate change impacts.

The risk assessment process largely based on the likelihood and consequence approach and a standard/ recognised risk matrix for evaluating the risks. This process was enhanced with the use of:

 Climate Change Scenarios and specific projections that best . reflected Council geographical location.

 The impact on Functional Areas posed by the scenarios

 Against Council’s objective or Success Criteria and ability to achieve them

Details of these three parameters are found at Appendix 4.

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(Quotes)

“Data and analysis from the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO show further warming of the atmosphere and oceans in the Australian region, as is happening globally. This change is occurring against the background of high climate variability, but the signal is clear.

Air and ocean temperatures across Australia are now, on average, almost a degree Celsius warmer than they were in 1910, with most of the warming occurring since 1950… ...Rainfall averaged across all of Australia has slightly increased since 1900. Since 1970, there have been large increases in annual rainfall in the northwest and decreases in the southwest. Autumn and early winter rainfall has mostly been below average in the southeast since 1990.

Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise and continued emissions will cause further warming over this century. Limiting the magnitude of future climate change requires large and sustained net global reductions in greenhouse gases.”

State of the Climate 2014 – CSIRO & BOM

“Observed impacts of climate change are widespread and consequential. Recent changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans. This conclusion is strengthened by more numerous and improved observations and analyses since the AR4. For many natural systems on land and in the ocean, new or stronger evidence exists for substantial and wide-ranging climate change impacts...”

IPCC WGAR5 accepted March 2014

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Climate Change Risk Assessment

Scenario for TEMPERATURE

By 2030

Maximum, Minimum and Mean average temperatures are projected to increase by 0.7 º C. The increases are occurring across the region.

Changes in minimum average temperatures, also known as night-time temperatures are known to impact on human health.

All models show there are no declines in temperatures for the North Coast.

By 2070

Minimum and Mean average temperatures are projected to increase by 2.0 ºC. There are slightly greater increases in summer, autumn and spring. The increases are occurring across the region.

Changes in minimum temperatures, also known as night-time temperatures are known to impact on human health.

Maximum average temperatures are projected to increase by 1.9 ºC. There are slightly greater increases are in the west.

All models show there are no declines in temperatures for the North Coast.

Council identified no substantial risks in relation to the projected increase in temperature in the near (2030) or far (2070) future.

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Scenario for HOT DAYS

The region currently experiences an average of 10 days above 35C

By 2030 - The region on average is projected to experience as additional three (3) Hot days in the near future (0-5 days per year).

By 2070 - The region on average is projected to experience as additional nine (9) Hot days in the far future (3-12 days per year).

Cold Nights - The region is projected to experience fewer cold nights per year (up to 4 in the near future and up to 8 per year in the far future). Changes in cold nights can have considerable impacts on natural ecosystems and agricultural / horticultural industries.

Impact on Requires Functional Adequacy of Future ID Risk Statement Council's Current Controls Likelihood Consequence Rating Area Control Adaptation ability to: Initiative/s?

HDAE1 An increase in hot days would lead to A - Maintain Environment PPE for staff; Highly animal species being affected (i.e. bats public safety Management signage; notices; beneficial falling on Council land) impacting on public & Protection proactive Likely Minor MEDIUM No and staff safety inspections; advice from Govt Depts. HDCI2 An increase in the number of hot days may C - Protect Infrastructure Sport fields lighting Mostly cause a shift in demand and hours of existing & Assets for night time use; beneficial usage for sporting facilities leading to community use of natural (reduces reduced outdoor spectator participation structures and shade and screens; consequence) and or increased night time use the lifestyle sports associations Possible Minor MEDIUM No enjoyed by the policies for play in local people hot conditions; long term infrastructure planning in place HDCC3 An increase in hot days may impact C - Protect Community Use of alternative Some Benefit attendance and enjoyment by the existing Services venues; shade (reduces community at Council events or at Council community structures; likelihood) venues resulting in reduced participation, structures and postponement of Likely Minor MEDIUM Yes enjoyment and quality of lifestyle the lifestyle events if necessary enjoyed by the local people

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Impact on Requires Functional Adequacy of Future ID Risk Statement Council's Current Controls Likelihood Consequence Rating Area Control Adaptation ability to: Initiative/s?

HDECS4 An increase in hot days could reveal the E - Ensure Corporate Building asset Highly inadequate cooling capability of some sound public Services management plan beneficial Council facilities rendering them unusable administration including upgrades resulting in increased upgrade costs and to and systems Rare Minor LOW No governance maintenance; consideration in facility design to conditions

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Scenario for RAINFALL

Currently, rainfall in the North Coast varies significantly over the region, with averages ranging from over 1600mm far Nth Coast to 800-1200 along the Great Dividing Range. Along the southern and central parts of the coast, annual rainfall is typically 1200 - 1600mm. The 1st decade of 21st century saw a long period of below avge rainfall during the Millennium Drought. this period ended with two of the wettest years on record for Australia (2010-2011) By 2030 - The range of projected changes in rainfall for the near future are: Summer: -17% to +14% Autumn: -9% to +37% Winter: -40% to +30% Spring: -18% to +25% By 2070 - The range of projected changes in rainfall for the far future are:

Summer: -10% to +39% Autumn: -8% to +39% Winter: -35% to +38% Spring: -18% to +49%.

Impact on Requires Functional Adequacy of ID Risk Statement Council's ability Current Controls Likelihood Consequence Rating Adaptation Area Control to: Initiative/s?

RCI1 There is a risk that an increase in C - Protect Infrastructure Monitoring and Mostly rainfall could lead to more frequent/ existing & Assets maintenance; beneficial severe flood events that result in community inspections; flood (reduces damage to Council's infrastructure structures and the planning; stormwater consequence) Possible Minor MEDIUM Yes lifestyle enjoyed upgrades; Land use by the local planning; infrastructure people design; capital works program REI2 There is a risk that a decrease in E - Ensure sound Infrastructure Water restrictions; Mostly rainfall could lead to reduced yield public & Assets demand management; beneficial into water storages during certain administration integrated water cycle (reduces Possible Minor MEDIUM Yes periods of the year resulting in and governance management strategy; consequence) impact on business and community education water usage RAI3 An increase in rainfall intensity A - Maintain Infrastructure Inspections and Mostly could cause greater impact on public safety & Assets clearing stormwater beneficial Likely Minor MEDIUM Yes Council infrastructure compromising catchment; rural road (reduces public safety maintenance program consequence)

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Impact on Requires Functional Adequacy of ID Risk Statement Council's ability Current Controls Likelihood Consequence Rating Adaptation Area Control to: Initiative/s?

RCI4 An increase in rainfall intensity may C - Protect Infrastructure Upgrading facilities to Some Benefit cause more frequent closure of existing & Assets improve drainage; (reduces facilities/ events decreasing community inspect and close likelihood) community participation and structures and the facilities as required; Likely Insignificant MEDIUM Yes affecting quality of lifestyle lifestyle enjoyed amended event format by the local or location people RDI5 An increase in rainfall intensity may D - Sustain and Infrastructure Legislation; water Some Benefit cause increased environmental enhance the & Assets testing and monitoring; (reduces impacts from run-off resulting in physical and SCADA system likelihood) Likely Minor MEDIUM Yes pollution of waterways and erosion; natural and sewer surcharges environment RBC6 An increase in rainfall variability B - Protect and Community Legislation; water Some Benefit may impact economic activity and enhance the local Services testing and monitoring; (reduces Likely Minor MEDIUM Yes viability resulting in impact on economy SCADA system likelihood) agriculture and aquaculture sector RAI7 An increase in the number of A - Maintain Infrastructure SOPs; call outs AH; Highly extreme rainfall events may cause public safety & Assets LEMC; SES liaison; beneficial loss/damage to public and private property and services due to fallen Likely Minor MEDIUM Yes trees, accidents due to intense rain periods, etc., which could result in public safety issues REI8 An increase in the number of E - Ensure sound Infrastructure SWMS; SOPs; training; Highly extreme rainfall events may cause public & Assets Equipment; risk beneficial an increased risk to the general administration assessments Likely Minor MEDIUM Yes safety of staff undertaking general and governance duties and responding to weather events

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Scenario for FIRE WEATHER

Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) is used in NSW to quantify fire weather. The FFDI combines observations of temperature, humidity and wind speed. Fire weather is classified as severe when the FFDI is above 50. Severe fire weather is projected to have a slight increase in spring and summer across the North Coast.

In the north coast there are three stations to measure the estimate of the FFDI - Lismore, Casino and Coffs Harbour. Currently the average annual FFDI is 3.3 with the number of FFDI days 0.2 at Coffs Harbour

By 2030 and By 2070

Severe fire weather is projected to increase during summer and spring in the region. Although these changes in severe FW are relatively small in magnitude (up to 1 additional day every two years) they are projected to occur in prescribed burning periods (spring) and the peak fire risk season (summer).

Council identified no substantial risks in relation to the projected increase in temperature in the near (2030) or far (2070) future.

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Scenario for SEA LEVEL

By 2030 - Sea level is projected to rise by 0.13 (RCP6.0) and 0.14m (RCP8.5) By 2070 - sea level is projected to rise by 0.34m (RCP6.0) and 0.45m (RCP8.5)

Requires Impact on Functional Adequacy ID Risk Statement Current Controls Likelihood Consequence Rating Adaptation of Control Council's ability to: Area Initiative/s?

SLECS1 There is a risk that the community will Inspections after Mostly expect high level of protection from weather events to beneficial E - Ensure sound projected SLR resulting in financial Corporate monitor impact; (reduces public administration Likely Minor MEDIUM Yes impact on council Services scenario reviews and consequ and governance monitoring; coastal ence) management program SLAI2 There is a risk that the projected SLR SCADA monitoring; Mostly will cause more frequent/ permanent inspections and patrols; beneficial inundation of land resulting in impact on tidal checks; seal or (reduces A - Maintain public Infrastructure reserves, sewer infrastructure leading to raise of man holes; lake consequ Possible Minor MEDIUM Yes safety & Assets public safety openings; planned and ence) construction of infrastructure SLCI3 There is a risk that the projected SLR SCADA; inspections Highly may cause increased tidal inundation or and patrols; tidal beneficial C - Protect existing coastal erosion and lead to the checks; seal or raise of community destruction of infrastructure (public and Infrastructure man holes; lake structures and the Likely Minor MEDIUM Yes private) & Assets openings; planned and lifestyle enjoyed by construction of the local people infrastructure; coastal management program

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Requires Impact on Functional Adequacy ID Risk Statement Current Controls Likelihood Consequence Rating Adaptation of Control Council's ability to: Area Initiative/s?

SLCI4 There is a risk that the projected SLR C - Protect existing Testing; monitoring; Highly and increased tidal inundation could community integrated water cycle beneficial Infrastructure affect fresh water intake resulting in structures and the management strategy Rare Major MEDIUM Yes & Assets reduced water supply lifestyle enjoyed by the local people

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Summary of Risks Requiring Future Adaptation Planning

Impact on Council's Functional Adequacy of ID Risk Statement Current Controls Rating ability to: Area Control

HDCC3 An increase in hot days may impact attendance C - Protect existing Community Use of alternative venues; shade Some Benefit and enjoyment by the community at Council community structures Services structures; postponement of (reduces MEDIUM events or at Council venues resulting in reduced and the lifestyle enjoyed events if necessary likelihood) participation, enjoyment and quality of lifestyle by the local people RCI1 There is a risk that an increase in rainfall could C - Protect existing Infrastructure & Monitoring and maintenance; Mostly beneficial lead to more frequent/ severe flood events that community structures Assets inspections; flood planning; (reduces result in damage to Council's infrastructure and the lifestyle enjoyed stormwater upgrades; Land use consequence) MEDIUM by the local people planning; infrastructure design; capital works program REI2 There is a risk that a decrease in rainfall could E - Ensure sound public Infrastructure & Water restrictions; demand Mostly beneficial lead to reduced yield into water storages during administration and Assets management; integrated water (reduces MEDIUM certain periods of the year resulting in impact on governance cycle management strategy; consequence) business and community water usage education RAI3 An increase in rainfall intensity could cause A - Maintain public safety Infrastructure & Inspections and clearing Mostly beneficial greater impact on Council infrastructure Assets stormwater catchment; rural road (reduces MEDIUM compromising public safety maintenance program consequence) RCI4 An increase in rainfall intensity may cause more C - Protect existing Infrastructure & Upgrading facilities to improve Some Benefit frequent closure of facilities/ events decreasing community structures Assets drainage; inspect and close (reduces MEDIUM community participation and affecting quality of and the lifestyle enjoyed facilities as required; amended likelihood) lifestyle by the local people event format or location RDI5 An increase in rainfall intensity may cause D - Sustain and enhance Infrastructure & Legislation; water testing and Some Benefit increased environmental impacts from run-off the physical and natural Assets monitoring; SCADA system (reduces MEDIUM resulting in pollution of waterways and erosion; environment likelihood) and sewer surcharges RBC6 An increase in rainfall variability may impact B - Protect and enhance Community Legislation; water testing and Some Benefit economic activity and viability resulting in impact the local economy Services monitoring; SCADA system (reduces on agriculture and aquaculture sector likelihood) RAI7 An increase in the number of extreme rainfall A - Maintain public safety Infrastructure & SOPs; call outs AH; LEMC; SES Highly beneficial MEDIUM events may cause loss/damage to public and Assets liaison;

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Impact on Council's Functional Adequacy of ID Risk Statement Current Controls Rating ability to: Area Control private property and services due to fallen trees, accidents due to intense rain periods, etc., which could result in public safety issues REI8 An increase in the number of extreme rainfall E - Ensure sound public Infrastructure & SWMS; SOPs; training; Highly beneficial events may cause an increased risk to the administration and Assets Equipment; risk assessments MEDIUM general safety of staff undertaking general duties governance and responding to weather events There is a risk that the community will expect Inspections after weather events Mostly beneficial SLECS1 E - Ensure sound public high level of protection from projected SLR Corporate to monitor impact; scenario (reduces MEDIUM administration and resulting in financial impact on council Services reviews and monitoring; coastal consequence) governance management program SLAI2 There is a risk that the projected SLR will cause SCADA monitoring; inspections Mostly beneficial more frequent/ permanent inundation of land and patrols; tidal checks; seal or (reduces Infrastructure & MEDIUM resulting in impact on reserves, sewer A - Maintain public safety raise of man holes; lake openings; consequence) Assets infrastructure leading to public safety planned and construction of infrastructure There is a risk that the projected SLR may cause SCADA; inspections and patrols; Highly beneficial SLCI3 C - Protect existing increased tidal inundation or coastal erosion and tidal checks; seal or raise of man community structures Infrastructure & MEDIUM lead to the destruction of infrastructure (public holes; lake openings; planned and and the lifestyle enjoyed Assets and private) construction of infrastructure; by the local people coastal management program SLCI4 There is a risk that the projected SLR and C - Protect existing Testing; monitoring; integrated Highly beneficial increased tidal inundation could affect fresh community structures Infrastructure & water cycle management strategy MEDIUM water intake resulting in reduced water supply and the lifestyle enjoyed Assets by the local people

There is a total of nine (9) risks, all rated Medium, which Council agreed new adaptation initiatives are to be developed.

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What is Next

The nature of Local Government, in its services and functions, means it  Actively considering climate change risk assessment results in will feel the impacts of climate change considerably and directly. Many Council’s strategic and other decision making and management impacts of climate change present risks that require treatment at a ‘local’ planning processes. level. Others, due to their scope may require collaboration with key stakeholders, private and public. Taking this next step is the prime reason for undertaking this project.

Identifying and understanding the potential risks that Climate Change may pose is important. More important however are the actions that Council takes as a result of the assessment.

Recommendations

Council is encouraged to review the outcome of the risk assessment and commit to:

 Developing adaptation initiatives for the selected risks rated Medium and deemed as appropriate

 Periodically review all risks in light of current climate change information and potential nature that may lead to increased exposure

 Take action on the impact of climate change on the operating environment, legislation, economy and other factors relevant to Council

 Consider categorising potential/ proposed actions into short, medium and long term plans

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Appendices

Appendix 1 – Participation Name Position Kyle Stevens Transport & Stormwater Engineering Planning The following personnel participated in the CCRA workshop held on 28 August Manager 2020. Their contribution was central to the success of the project.

Rachel Bennett Water and Sewer Engineering Planning Manager Name Position

Jeffery Sharp Acting General Manager

Rebecca Olsen Director Corporate Performance

Melissa Watkins Director Development and Environment

Dan Bylsma Director Infrastructure

Liesa Davies Acting Director Strategy and Growth

Ashley Grummitt Group Manager Commercial Business Units

Duncan Coulton Group Manager Strategy

Debbie Archer Group Manager Environment and Regulatory Services

Liam Bulley Group Manager Recreation Property and Buildings Dan Croft Group Manager Development

Michael Magalhaes Waste Manager

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Appendix 2 - Consequence and Likelihood Descriptors

Consequence Rating Success Criteria Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic

A Isolated instances of Appearance of a threat Serious near misses or Small numbers of Large numbers of serious Maintain public safety serious injuries or loss of but no actual harm minor injuries injuries injuries or loss of lives lives

Individually significant Regional stagnation such B Significant general Regional decline leading to but isolated areas of that businesses are unable Protect and enhance the Minor shortfall relative reduction in economic widespread business reduction in economic to thrive and employment local economy to current forecasts performance relative to failure, loss of employment performance relative to does not keep pace with current forecasts and hardship current forecasts population growth

C There would be minor Severe and widespread The region would be seen Protect existing community areas in which the Isolated but noticeable General appreciable decline in services and as very unattractive, structures and the lifestyle region was unable to examples of decline in decline in services quality of life within the moribund and unable to enjoyed by the local people maintain its current services community support its community services

D Isolated but significant Severe loss of Major widespread loss of Sustain and enhance the Minor instances of instances of No environmental environmental amenity and environmental amenity and physical and natural environmental damage environmental damage damage a danger of continuing progressive irrecoverable environment that could be reversed that might be reversed environmental damage environmental damage with intensive efforts

E There would be minor instances of public Isolated instances of Public administration Public administration would Ensure sound public Public administration administration being public administration would be under severe struggle to remain effective administration and would fall into decay and under more than usual being under severe pressure on several and would be seen to be in governance cease to be effective stress but it could be pressure fronts danger of failing completely managed

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Likelihood Rating Recurrent Risks Single Events

Almost Certain Could occur several times per year More likely than not - Probability greater than 50%

Likely May arise about once a year As likely as not - 50/50 chance

Less likely than not but still appreciable - Probability less than Possible May arise once in ten years 50% but still quite high

Unlikely but not negligible - Probability low but noticeably Unlikely May arise once in ten to 25 years greater than zero

Rare Unlikely during the next 25 years Negligible - Probability very small, close to zero.

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Appendix 3 - Risk Evaluation Matrix

CONSEQUENCE

Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic

LIKELIHOOD

EXTREME Extreme risks demand/require urgent attention at the most senior level and action plans and management responses are required; cannot be simply accepted as a part of routine operations.

HIGH High risks are the most severe that can be accepted as a part of routine operations but must be managed by a senior manager who reports on progress to the Executive.

MEDIUM Medium risks can be expected to form part of routine operations where specific monitoring and response procedures exist. Management will be assigned to a particular manager and reported on at senior management level.

LOW Low risks will be part of routine operations and expected to be managed by existing controls.

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Appendix 4 - Climate Change Scenarios Functional Areas and Success Criteria

Climate Change Scenarios A key feature of the Risk Assessment process is the use of various authoritative sources for climate change scenarios that were applied in this project. The Scenarios applicable for Port Macquarie Hastings Council are:

T Temperature By 2030 - Maximum, Minimum and Mean average temperatures are projected to increase by 0.7 º C. The increases are occurring across the region. Changes in minimum average temperatures, also known as night-time temperatures are known to impact on human health. All models show there are no declines in temperatures for the North Coast. By 2070 - Minimum and Mean average temperatures are projected to increase by 2.0 ºC. There are slightly greater increases in summer, autumn and spring. The increases are occurring across the region. Changes in minimum temperatures, also known as night-time temperatures are known to impact on human health. Maximum average temperatures are projected to increase by 1.9 ºC. There are slightly greater increases are in the west. All models show there are no declines in temperatures for the North Coast.

HD Hot Days The region currently experiences an average of 10 days above 35C By 2030 - The region on average is projected to experience as additional three (3) Hot days in the near future (0-5 days per year). By 2070 - The region on average is projected to experience as additional nine (9) Hot days in the far future (3-12 days per year). Cold Nights - The region is projected to experience fewer cold nights per year (up to 4 in the near future and up to 8 per year in the far future). Changes in cold nights can have considerable impacts on natural ecosystems and agricultural / horticultural industries.

R Rainfall Currently, rainfall in the North Coast varies significantly over the region, with averages ranging from over 1600mm far Nth Coast to 800-1200 along the Great Dividing Range. Along the southern and central parts of the coast, annual rainfall is typically 1200 - 1600mm. The 1st decade of 21st century saw a long period of below avge rainfall during the Millennium Drought. this period ended with two of the wettest years on record for Australia (2010- 2011) By 2030 - The range of projected changes in rainfall for the near future are: Summer: -17% to +14% Autumn: -9% to +37% Winter: -40% to +30% Spring: -18% to +25% By 2070 - The range of projected changes in rainfall for the far future are: Summer: -10% to +39% Autumn: -8% to +39% Winter: -35% to +38% Spring: -18% to +49%.

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FW Fire Weather Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) is used in NSW to quantify fire weather. The FFDI combines observations of temperature, humidity and wind speed. Fire weather is classified as severe when the FFDI is above 50. Severe fire weather is projected to have a slight increase in spring and summer across the North Coast. In the north coast there are three stations to measure the estimate of the FFDI - Lismore, Casino and Coffs Harbour. Currently the average annual FFDI is 3.3 with the number of FFDI days 0.2 at Coffs Harbour By 2030 and By 2070 - Severe fire weather is projected to increase during summer and spring in the region. Although these changes in severe FW are relatively small in magnitude (up to 1 additional day every two years) they are projected to occur in prescribed burning periods (spring) and the peak fire risk season (summer).

SL Sea Level By 2030 - Sea level is projected to rise by 0.13 (RCP6.0) and 0.14m (RCP8.5) By 2070 - sea level is projected to rise by 0.34m (RCP6.0) and 0.45m (RCP8.5)

Functional Areas of Council Potential Climate Change impacts were considered in relation to the following Council Functional Areas:

I Infrastructure and Assets E Environment Management & Protection C Community Services L Land-use Planning and Development D Emergency Management & Natural Disaster Preparedness CS Corporate Services All Council business operations have been distributed in the appropriate area for consistency.

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Success Criteria Success criteria can be best described as long term objectives, and provide a perspective from which to conduct a risk assessment. In many cases a single climate change risk is assessed from a number of perspectives. The following success criteria have been applied and adopted as part of the risk assessment:

A Maintain public safety B Protect and enhance the local economy C Protect existing community structures and the lifestyle enjoyed by the local people D Sustain and enhance the physical and natural environment E Ensure sound public administration and governance Note: ‘Success Criteria’ are a summary representation of Council’s long term objectives.

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Appendix 5 - Functional Areas Distribution

Emergency Environment Management & Land-use Planning and Management & Assets & Infrastructure Community Services Corporate Services Protection Development Natural Disaster Preparedness (I) (E) (C) (L) (D) (CS) Directorate Infrastructure; Development & Strategy & Growth Development & Infrastructure Corporate Performance Development and Environment Environment Environment Department Infrastructure Operations Environment and Regulatory Strategy Environment and Director Infrastructure Commercial Business Units Infrastructure Planning Services Customer Experience and Regulatory Services Digital Technology Infrastructure Project Communications Development Financial Services Delivery Economic and Cultural Assessment Governance Recreation Property and Development Land Use Planning Organisational Buildings Community Engagement Performance

Sub-Branch Bridges and Structures Environmental Health Port Macquarie Library Land Use Planning Airport ETS Electrical, Natural Resources Wauchope Library Development Crematorium & Cemeteries Mechanical & Telemetry Management Laurieton Library Engineering Environmental Laboratory Fleet Landscape Architecture Customer Service Port Development Waste Transport and Stormwater Macquarie Assessment Planning Glasshouse Sewer and Water Customer Service Development Digital Technology Headworks Wauchope Administration GIS Inspections Building Regulation & Fire Customer Service Building Certification Records Management Asset Management Safety Laurieton ICT Sealed Roads Compliance - Environment & Community Inclusion Plumbing and Drainage Finance Un-sealed Roads Regulatory Communications Payroll Trade Waste Bush Regeneration Education Corporate Accounting Infrastructure Customer Natural Resources Business & Industry - Rates and Revenue Relations Noxious Plants Economic & Cultural Water Meters Infrastructure Rangers Development Accounts Payable Management & Town Centre Master Plan Destination and Cultural Accounts Receivable Administration Tree Management Development Procurement Asset Design Events Stores Recreation and Facilities Grants Insurance & Risk Parks and Open Spaces Development Contributions Business Improvement Recreation Property and Strategic Planning Corp Reporting & IPR Buildings Strategic Projects Human Resources Property & Leasing Consultant Property Employee Relations Investment Organisational Economic Development Development

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Emergency Environment Management & Land-use Planning and Management & Assets & Infrastructure Community Services Corporate Services Protection Development Natural Disaster Preparedness (I) (E) (C) (L) (D) (CS) Digital Engagement Learning and Develop Strategy and Growth Work Health & Safety Management & Integrated Planning and Administration Reporting Management & Administration General Manager Governance & Executive Services

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Ellie Diaz Principal – Public Sector Risk Tel 61 2 9320 2733 Mob 61 407 495 410 Email [email protected]