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Home , Conservative Democrat, Gary Johnson, Joy Behar

V22, 5 Thursday, Sept. 15, 2016

The Johnson option to Clinton, Trump Libertarian presidential nominee has conversation with Daniels at Purdue By BRIAN A. HOWEY WEST LAFAYETTE – When ’s unfavorables are 62%, ’s are 54% and Gov. stands at 45%, as they were in the WTHR/Howey Politics Poll released last Friday, the obvious question in this strange, strange election cycle is whether Hoosier voters are open to exploring an alternative. Such an option showed up at Purdue Uni- versity on Tuesday when Libertarian nominee had a “conversa- tion” with President Mitch Purdue President during his Tuesday “conversation” with Liber- Daniels, students, the tarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson. (HPI photo by Brian A. Howey) public and press. The two walked through the issues for about 20 by saying, “I want to thank our guest. You just gave a minutes and then fielded well over a dozen questions from string of intelligent, candid, politically risky, unpredictable students. The same invitatoin has been extended to both answers all apparently grounded in an apparent philoso-

Clinton and Trump. Daniels ended the public proceedings Continued on page 3 The Hoosier undecideds By MAUREEN HAYDEN CNHI Statehouse Bureau INDIANAPOLIS – Hillary Clinton may wish the long controversy over her use of a private email server while secretary of state would go away. But for Matt Duncan, it remains a troubling issue. The “Indiana is very important. Indiana University law student fears that the Democratic presi- The presidential poll in Indiana dential nominee needlessly risked has actually tightened. I saw a , then tried to deflect blame before eventually poll today, it’s single digit, 6 to admitting her mistakes. “This email controversy 7% I’ve been behind more than raises serious questions about that.” her trustworthiness,” said Dun- can, echoing a perception that - Democrat VP nominee Tim continues to haunt Clinton in the Kaine on WTHR/HPI Poll waning weeks before the Nov. 8 Page 2 presidential election. A CNN poll early this month Duncan is among those vot- found that nearly two-thirds of vot- ers who’ve not decided whom they’ll ers agree her use of a private email support, or even if they’ll vote, in the server is “an important indicator of election. One issue that continues to her character and ability to serve as arise for those voters as they weigh president.” That number has steadily their choice between Clinton and grown since last year. Republican Donald Trump is what Earlier this week, during the email controversy says about her a televised NBC forum, Clinton was character and candor, or lack thereof. grilled by moderator Matt Lauer on Howey Politics Indiana Earlier this WWHowey Media, LLC 405 summer, the FBI found Ave., Suite evidence that Clinton 300 Indianapolis, IN 46204 violated federal rules when exchanging clas- www.howeypolitics.com sified information on a private email domain. Brian A. Howey, Publisher The FBI’s investigation Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington revealed that some of her Jack E. Howey, Editor emails were deleted dur- ing a congressional probe Mary Lou Howey, Editor of the matter. The FBI Maureen Hayden, Statehouse did not recommend that Mark Curry, photography Clinton be prosecuted, but Director James Comey called her her handling of classified information. handling of State Department email She repeated past statements about Subscriptions “extremely careless.” her use of a private server being a HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 For Jason Thornbury, the mistake.“It was something that should HPI Weekly, $350 controversy weighs heavily in his deci- not have been done,” she said. Ray Volpe, Account Manager sion since he believes Clinton showed That wasn’t enough to quell 317.602.3620 a blatant disregard for security rules the concerns of Patricia Moore, a that others have to follow. nurse and mother of six from Lo- email: [email protected] Thornbury is a war veteran gansport. Moore said she wishes the Contact HPI and active duty reservist with security investigations of Clinton’s use of an [email protected] clearance. “If I did the same things as email server had turned up more in- Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 Mrs. Clinton, I would not have a job,” formation about her decisions related he said. It’s one reason why he won’t to the 2012 attack by Islamic militants Washington: 202.256.5822 vote for her, he said. Still, his dislike on the U.S. diplomatic compound in Business Office: 317.602.3620 of Trump is strong, too – enough that Benghazi, Libya. Four Americans were he can’t commit his vote to the GOP killed, including the U.S. ambassador © 2016, Howey Politics candidate, either. to Libya, and Clinton’s role in keep- Indiana. All rights reserved. Thornbury is not alone in his ing them safe, or failing to protect indecision. A newly released WTHR/ them, has been repeatedly questioned Photocopying, Internet forward- Howey Politics poll, conducted in early in multiple congressional investiga- ing, faxing or reproducing in September, found Trump leading Clin- tions. Moore said both controversies any form, whole or part, is a ton by seven points among Indiana make her concerned that Clinton isn’t violation of federal law without voters. Twenty percent of voters either equipped to be the country’s com- permission from the publisher. supported a third-party candidate or mander in chief. claimed to still be undecided. Both “The decisions any politician Clinton and Trump remain intensely makes can affect our ability to remain disliked, the poll found. More than a free society,” she said. v half of Indiana voters have unfavor- able views of both, though Clinton is Maureen Hayden covers the disliked more. Indiana Statehouse for the CNHI Other polls suggest that the newspapers and websites. Reach email controversy is weighing down her at [email protected]. Clinton’s candidacy. Page 3

is streaming up right now. Will that be reflected in the Gary Johnson, from page 1 first debates? It doesn’t look that way, but now we go on phy. What are you doing in this election?” to debate No. 2 and debate No. 3. We are not excluded There was a fascinating backdrop to all of this, as from debates two and three based on debate No. 1. I’m Daniels will be one of about 15 Presidential Debate Com- at 13%, representing 18 million voters. The presidential mission members who will participate in a Friday confer- debate commission is going to parse 21 million voters ence call to determine whether Johnson will join Trump as opposed to 18 million voters? I think the presidential and Clinton on the stage Sept. 26 at Tufts University in debate commission is going to have a riot on their hands.” Hempstead, N.Y., in what many believe will be a criti- Asked how he can win, Johnson cited his cam- cally pivotal event in this unprecedented race. Daniels has paign social analytics. “Four weeks ago we were reaching strongly suggested Johnson’s from a social media standpoint 13 million people. That’s a inclusion, and the former two- term Republican governor made his case before students, the press and then in a private dinner with Daniels at his campus Westwood resi- dence attended by students, Libertarian Party officials, aca- demia and the news media. “What they’ve said is you have to be at 15% in five polls,” Johnson said in the first presidential press confer- ence on Indiana soil this cycle. “There has not been one poll in this country where my name has appeared on the top line. Not one. If Mickey Mouse was on the top line of any poll done nationally, Mickey would be a 30% because Mickey is a known commodity. and I are the only third party candidate on the ballot in big number. Two days ago that number of was 52 million. all 50 states. Given the fact that we’re polling at 13%, We did a rally two weeks ago in Vermont and there were shouldn’t we be on the top line?” 400 people. It was packed. The first speaker, a legisla- Johnson, who polled 11% in the WTHR/Howey tor, said ‘This is the biggest audience I’ve addressed.’ Two Politics Indiana Poll Sept. 6-8, trailed Trump at 43% and hours later 300,000 people had watched that same rally Clinton at 36%, and was at 9% in the Real Clear Politics on Facebook Live. So this is the new dynamic. We raised a composite polling and 9.1% in the Huffington Post com- million bucks last week with a money bomb. The biggest posite. day of the month came on ‘Aleppo day.’ Only surpassed by The stakes for the presidential commission’s inclu- the next biggest fundraising day the day after.” sion of Johnson are enormous. The commission has said That was in reference to his appearance on that Johnson must cross the 15% threshold in at least MSNBC’s “” last Thursday when panelist Mike five national polls, even though the state polls Barnacle asked Johnson what he would do about Aleppo, are more telling, or he will be excluded from the Sept. 26 the wartorn Syrian city. “What is Aleppo?” Johnson asked, debate. Johnson made the case that his path to victory prompting host Joe Scarborough to call the lapse “disquali- runs through the debate commission decision. “Neither I fying.” or Bill Weld would be doing this if we didn’t think we could But Johnson is resilient, repeatedly making his win the whole thing,” Johnson said, answering a question case. “If we elect Trump or Clinton, does anybody think from Daniels. “A wasted vote is voting for someone you polarization will get better?” he asked at one point. don’t believe in. We do believe we’ll be in the presidential “There’s a third scenario, Johnson and Weld get elected,” debate. This is a two-party system that needs crashing. he said of him and his running mate, former two-term Re- There is nothing to fear of my voice being on that stage.” publican Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld. “There’s a six-lane At Westwood, seated at Daniels’ head table, highway down the middle. It’s an administration of Repub- Johnson explained further, “Right now our social analytics licans and Democrats. Everyone will be of the Libertarian are off the charts. The polls are going up, the momentum leaning. I think you can make a case the third scenario has Page 4 the possibility to succeed.” 10 million Americans have drug-related criminal records. “When we come to legalize marijuana, we’re going to have Where does Johnson stand on the issues? a quantum leap in looking at the drug issue as one of In the opening 20 minutes of his conversation with health, not criminal justice.” Daniels, the former Indiana governor who once pondered Does he support the 2nd Amendment? “I sup- a presidential run himself, asked Johnson to stake out po- port the right to bear arms,” Johnson said resolutely. “We sitions. What was his political philosophy? Daniels asked. should be open to debate on how to keep firearms out of “First of all Bill Weld and I are on the ballot in all the hands of the mentally ill.” 50 states. Nobody else can lay claim to that. I think we’re Daniels asked about the death penalty. Johnson speaking on behalf of 60%, who are fiscally responsible, said he reversed his stance, now opposing. “I still believe for smaller government, and we’re socially inclusive. All in an eye for eye, but the error rate may be as high as of us want the freedom and to make choices in four percent. I don’t want to put one to death when 99 our own lives as long as those choices don’t put others in are guilty. I don’t want to do four and have 96 guilty. What harm’s way. Americans are skeptical of foreign interven- price do you put on that? It costs more to put a person on tions. I cannot think of a single example of it ever working death row than it does to lock them up for the rest of their out. I do believe is what most of us really want. lives.” Free trade is not crony capitalism. Free trade is absent Then Daniels asked Johnson about immigration. government interference. I’m the only free trade candidate Johnson audibly sighed. “We should embrace immigration,” in this race.” he began. “I am speaking as a border state governor. Daniels asked about the Mexico is a political bogey- war in Afghanistan, America’s man. They are the cream of longest that began in 2001 after the crop when it comes to the Sept. 11 terror attacks. “We workers. The reason there were attacked and we attacked are 11 million here illegally back,” Johnson said. “In seven is the government has made months, we wiped out al Qaeda. I it impossible to get a work think we should get out tomorrow. visas for jobs American citi- Tomorrow would be the same if we zens don’t want to do. We got out 20 years from now.” Later should make it as easy as asked by a student about foreign possible to get a work visa; interventions, Johnson said, “We’re do a background check and not going to involve ourselves in given them a Social Security regime change,” adding, “Look, if card. Building a wall across we’re attacked, we’re going to at- the border is crazy. Let’s tack back.” dramatically increase im- What about the Iraq War? migration. These are hard- “We have the military survelliance working people who are capability to seek out any weapons buying homes, cars, contrib- of mass destruction. I was against uting to , , the invasion of Iraq.” , contributing to Social Security. It’s a good thing.” “Your thoughts on Syria,” Daniels asked. “That’s Johnson was asked by a student what his first pri- where that Aleppo is.” ority would be if elected. “Bill Weld and I in first 100 days “Ah, Aleppo,” Johnson said with a laugh. “Syria will provide a balanced budget to Congress. We will give is regime change. I opposed regime change.” He gave a them the template on how to do that. We can’t balance detailed overview of where the Assad regime, the Free the budget unless Medicare and Medicaid is reformed. Syrian militia, and ISIS are geographically and politically Social Security is another matter, but it is simpler that with regard to Aleppo. Then he described the tangled re- Medicaid.” lationships where allies end up fighting other allies, finally Asked about his proposed 20% military spending saying, “Are you getting just how complicated this be- cut, Johnson said that “we should have an invincible na- comes when you get involved in a civil war? Look at how tional defense.” He cited the military base closing program much worse it has become. The only way to get out is to of the 1980s and 1990s. “With BRAC, 20% of bases could join hands with Russia diplomatically. I applaud the work have been closed. We will reinstitute BRAC. We’re spend- of Secretary Kerry and hope this works out.” ing as much money on our military as the rest of the world How about drug legalization? “I said we should combined. Do we really need nukes to blow up the world legalize marijuana in 1991. I was the highest elected of- 20 times, when 16 do the trick?” ficial in the United States to call for legalization,” he said Prior to the issue questions, Daniels noted that of his two terms as , adding that Johnson has climbed the tallest mountains on seven conti- Page 5 nents, including Everest, referring to him as an “iron man.” it! We’re not getting shoved up against the car. We’ve all Johnson responded, “Anything that can go wrong will go had our heads in the sand on it. It starts with awareness. wrong. It’s how we deal with adversity that ultimately We talk about it and recognize it.” depends on success. For me and all of us, get a smile on your face and get after it tomorrow. Even if it’s 29,000 feet Converting to Libertarian above sea level.” At Westwood, the former Republican governor Asked by a student on how people are saying they was asked about evolving to a Libertarian. “In 1971, I will vote for Clinton to keep Trump out of the White House was given this handout, like a booklet. I read that book- and vise versa, Johnson responded, “Neither I or Bill Weld let, and from the time I read that booklet, I have always would be doing this if we didn’t think we could win the described myself as a Libertarian,” Johnson said. “At that whole thing. A wasted vote is voting for someone you time I was a registered Democrat. I became a registered don’t believe in.” Republican. I voted for Borland over Reagan for his On the skyrocketing student debt, Johnson ob- second term because I was concerned about the deficits. served of student loans, “if they never existed, I believe It was always about smaller government and less money tuition would be half what it is. If everyone boycotted out of my pocket. college because of those high costs, those high costs will “When I changed my registration to Libertarian, it decrease dramatically.” He then turned to Daniels and said, was like this had been lifted off my back. I no longer had “This guy has taken some dramatic steps to lower tuition. to defend Republicanism. I always maintain that Repub- I’d be open to legislation that if we bailed out Wall Street, licans are socially inclusive. I’ll always believe that. Most what if all these student loans were refinanced and inter- Republicans fall in that category. Regrettably in 2012 I est rates in line of Wall Street. I think that’s worth looking would have been the only socially liberal on stage. I do at. I think it avoids a bigger disaster.” think Donald Trump alienates more than half the Republi- Both Daniels and Johnson noted that he vetoed cans and I think more than half of Democrats are alien- 750 bills, including line item spending, during his two terms as governor. Daniels said it was probably more than the other 49 governors combined. Johnson noted, “Just leave the private sector alone. Give them consistency that taxes won’t go up, but from a regulatory standpoint, I can’t tell you how many bills I vetoed that were just going to add time and money to our lives. I think it will be more than made up with certainty on private side.” ated by Hillary Clinton.” On a question about whether he is committed to He talked about his career in business. “I hope the United Nations, Johnson morphed it into civil rights. “I my experience is called into question,” he said. “Since I’ve would stay fully involved in United Nations. I like the con- been 17 years old, I’ve paid for everything in my life.” cept of world and joining arms and hands.” He then He grew a one-person handyman business into said that RFRA “is really just veiled legislation that discrim- one that employed 1,000 people. “I’ve learned some les- inates against LGBT.” But he added that when it comes to sons growing a business to that level. Sharing the profits a Jewish cakebaker being asked to bake a cake for a Nazi, is an incredibly magic formula,” Johnson said. “Learning he explained, “What I stand for is religious freedom. If lessons about hiring and firing. There is nothing easier you’re Jewish, you don’t want to host a Christian reception than hiring people. There is nothing more difficult than in your synagogue. If you’re a church that doesn’t believe firing people. But if you can’t fire people, things don’t in gay marriage, you don’t have to perform a gay mar- work. That’s the breakdown between the private sector riage.” and the public sector. We elect a whole bunch of people As for the concept of black lives matter, Johnson who have never hired and fired. They find it real easy to told a reporter, “All lives matter. But then follow that up hire and find it impossible to fire. You have this discon- with black lives matter. Why? They are getting shot at the nect. If you’re hiring people who have never hired and rate of six times that of whites. When it comes to drug fired it becomes more compounded. I was incredibly suc- related crime, if you are a person of color there is a four- cessful in business, incredibly successful as governor.” time chance you’re going to end up behind bars than not. Blacks are being are being pushed up against the car. Stop Page 6

Epilogue the Republican and Democratic candi- These were a fascinating three dates, Clinton has 48 percent compared hours at Purdue with two Republican to Trump’s 43 percent. In Quinnipiac’s governors, both with a Libertarian previous presidential poll about three streak, talking pragmatically. They weeks ago, Clinton led Trump by 10 engaged students, the public and the points. media. Trump and Clinton are locked in In a campaign where Trump a tight contest, with both candidates still and Pence demagogue the press and struggling to win the confidence of their Hillary Clinton avoids most contact, respective bases, the latest New York here were two figures who conducted Times/CBS News poll finds. Mrs. Clinton, themselves with enhanced accessibil- the Democratic nominee, has the support ity, sans rote talking points. Any topic of 46 percent of likely voters nationwide, was on the table. When Johnson was to 44 percent for Mr. Trump, the Republi- pressed on the Aleppo controversy, he can, including those who said they were acknowledged the mistake and learned leaning toward a candidate. Looking more from it. The defense shields never went up. broadly at all registered voters, Mrs. Clinton holds a wider In an election cycle that has been everything from edge, 46 to 41 percent. In a four-way race, Mr. Trump and strange to bizarre, from the Purdue Rec Center to West- Mrs. Clinton are tied at 42 percent each. Gary Johnson, wood, the vibe was one of optimism, candor and inclusive- the Libertarian candidate, has the support of 8 percent of ness. But Johnson offered up this assessment: “I think this likely voters, and the Green Party nominee, , takes is the end of the Republican Party, I do.” v 4 percent. The third-party candidates draw their strongest support from younger voters. Twenty-six percent of voters Clinton poll leads continue to shrink ages 18 to 29 say they plan to vote for Mr. Johnson, and A new Quinnipiac poll shows Donald Trump is another 10 percent back Ms. Stein. A little more than one shrinking Hillary Clinton’s lead, but voters don’t really like in five political independents say they will vote for one of their choices (). In a race between just the third-party candidates. v Page 7

exchange and thanking the show for playing the extent of Gov. Pence his remarks in which the Indiana governor said that the campaign does not want the support of Duke or people like him. becomes a verb Because Pence refused to use the words “deplor- By BRIAN A. HOWEY able,” Hoosier newspaper readers of Gannett products WEST LAFAYETTE – The Trumpian march through found the story on front pages and featured on news sites the swing states polling tossups this past week has Demo- across the state. crats on edge and the fact is, Donald Trump can win the reported the Capitol Hill general election. foray like this: Mr. Pence struggled to press the attack: In It is being aided and abetted by the shoddy cam- separate news conferences, House and Senate Republican paign tactics of Hillary Clinton, whose “basket of deplo- leaders declined to join Mr. Pence, the Indiana governor rables” remark last Friday was a Trump style gift. Throw in and vice-presidential nominee, in rebuking Mrs. Clinton Clinton’s 9/11 fainting episode, her diagnosed pneumonia over her remark. An otherwise friendly morning meet- revealed through a shroud of Clintonian secrecy, and this ing with House Republicans turned awkward when Mr. presidential race to the bottom Pence was pressed by Rep. Jeff Fortenberry of continues like none other. about Mr. Trump’s difficulties with women, said two House So this should have been Republicans who relayed the conversation. Mr. Fortenberry a buoyant week for Gov. Mike told Mr. Pence that his young daughter had come to him Pence. and said, “Daddy, Donald Trump hates women,” according Not! to one of the lawmakers, who both insisted on anonymity Pence is being pilloried to recount a private conversation. Mr. Pence faced resis- not only by Mika Brezinski on tance again when he met privately with Senators Mike MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” for “Pencing the issues” (always a Lee of and of , neither of whom has bad sign when your name becomes a verb), but his failure endorsed Mr. Trump. Mr. Lee pressed the governor on his to get into the deplorable game has produced bad reluctance to denounce Mr. Duke and the so-called alt- reviews from Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway and U.S. Sen. Mike Lee. I thought the “deplorable” criticism of Pence in the Duke prism was piling on, but Conway and Lee weighed in. They were being pragmatic: Pence’s refusal was simply producing bad headlines. Gov. Pence had his homecoming on Capitol Hill in an effort to convince his former GOP Brothers and Sisters that Donald Trump is a nice guy. It came on a day when DCLeaks, transmitting information most likely hacked by Russians, provided this quote from former Sec. of State Colin Powell, who report- edly called Donald Trump a “national disgrace and an international pariah.” Pence heard concerns, sources say, about Trump’s (and now Pence’s) bromance with Vladimir Putin and the nominee’s standing with women, a demographic group that Pence has had his own right movement more explicitly, stressing “that Republicans issues with over the past four years. And he was urged by must identify David Duke’s racism as deplorable,” accord- stout conservatives like Sen. Lee to call out KKKlansman ing to Conn Carroll, a spokesman for Mr. Lee. David Duke “deplorable” even as Pence admitted he “had This all came after Pence found his penchant no idea” why the issue keeps coming up. In the 2016, we for calling Trump the next under fire. Two have seen the rise of the “alt right” and we have key play- former speechwriters for President Reagan weren’t ready ers living and speaking in an “alt universe.” to assert, as Gov. Mike Pence repeatedly has, that Donald Posed the question on CNN’s “New Day,” hours Trump is on par with the 40th president. after Pence told the same network that he would not use “Having worked for Ronald Reagan and know- the word to describe the former imperial wizard of the Ku ing Ronald Reagan, a few things come to mind. When a Klux Klan, Conway responded by tossing up her hands, woman entered the room, Reagan stood up,” said Peter “He should — sure. So that — so that he doesn’t get head- Rusthoven on WTHR-TV’s “Indiana Insiders” on Sunday. lines saying, ‘Mike Pence will not say Donald Trump [sic] Rusthoven continued, “Reagan had on his desk a plaque is deplorable’ and people can get satisfied,” Conway said, that said there’s no limit to what a man could do or how encouraging people to watch the entire clip of Pence’s much he could achieve if he doesn’t mind who gets credit. Page 8

I’ll let viewers decide whether any of that reminds them nation crisis and the I-69 work stall in Bloomington. of Donald Trump. It’s not a comparison that leaps to my The Pence administration seems to be following mind.” the Flint script of Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder, who handled On CBS “Face the Nation,” another Reagan that controvery in ham-handed fashion. Indiana Public speechwriter, Peggy Noonan, was asked about the Pence Media reported Democratic gubernatorial nominee John comparison and said, “I do not see the explicit similarities” Gregg saying that as governor, he’d do more than just and “temperament.” shift responsibility over to the federal government. “We’ve Pence met with Reagan once as a young congres- got to do everything we can to work with, goad, push the sional candidate in 1988. Rusthoven and Noonan worked federal government along,” said Gregg. and collaborated with him. As for the I-69 work stoppage, Indiana Democratic Pence’s troubles weren’t limited to Deep South Chairman John Zody, who lives in Bloomington, reported Klansmen and the Russian steppes. The RFRA incident that the project was still shut down on Wednesday, making resurfaced when the NCAA, headquartered in Indianapolis, it a prime B-roll site for the Gregg/Hale campaign. pulled tournaments out of , which passed a “As someone who uses this road daily, I can new state law preventing cities and counties from passing echo the frustrations many Hoosiers have about the protections based on sexual orientation and gender iden- Pence-Holcomb Administration’s mismanagement on the tity. I-69 project,” he said. “This rivals their mismanagement of “I just heard about that this morning,” Pence at the I-65 bridge closure last year. Hoosiers are fed up with a Capitol Hill press conference (he doesn’t hold press this administration putting political ambition ahead of do- avails in Indiana). “We don’t have the details to comment ing the job they were elected to do, like fixing the state’s other than to say the NCAA is based in Indianapolis. We crumbling infrastructure and paying people for their work. have a great relationship with the NCAA.” The NCAA had This is another stark reminder that Eric Holcomb isn’t expressed concern last year when Pence signed into law a ready to lead Indiana. Like Mike Pence, he can’t manage “religious freedom law” that critics said would enable busi- state government well and unlike John Gregg, he’s offering nesses to discriminate against gays and lesbians. no policy proposals.” v Then there are two issues back home that contin- ue to produce headlines: The East Chicago lead contami- Page 9

know.” Yoder vowed to continue pushing Hollingsworth to Yoder optimistic she release his tax returns. She made a point to release hers, even having her staff email HPI a copy before the inter- view. can beat Hollingsworth Yoder continued to call Hollingsworth a “weak can- By THOMAS CURRY didate and someone voters see through. He is everything INDIANAPOLIS – After a summer of gathering wrong with politics; someone who has independent wealth endorsements and building up her campaign for Congress can look around the country and decide where to run. As representing the 9th CD, Shelli Yoder is ready for Repub- someone who works at IU, who serves on the Monroe lican Trey Hollingsworth. Last week ’s report cited County Council and has kids who go to school here, I am internal GOP polls finding the race to be a tossup, after it offended by that.” had been considered safe Republican since 2010. Further- Yoder said she has been received positively by more, Yoder has attracted national attention, including her voters in the 9th. “It’s a real honor to meet people who addition to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Com- believe in me and talk to important groups of people.” For mittee’s coveted Red to list. example, Yoder has been endorsed by the State Fraternal Despite that, Yoder would say that her biggest Order of Police after the FOP had endorsed Greg Zoeller advantage is Hollingsworth’s lack in the Republican primary. During the endorsement an- of Hoosier ties, in comparison to nouncement, the FOP spokesperson said that Holling- her of work in Indiana. swowrth had made no effort to contact the FOP and that In an interview with HPI in June, “Shelli offers much more than her opponent.” Additionally, Hollingsworth addressed being the FOP believes that Yoder’s and Hoosier labeled a carpetbagger in his roots go a long way toward making her a good representa- Republican primary as a simple tive in Washington. lack of communication on his part. The only scheduled debate in the race will be Hollingsworth went on to describe how he owns multiple held at the Greenwood Chamber of Commerce, but Yoder businesses throughout Indiana, as well as in the 9th and hesitates to call it a debate. “It’s an event for the cham- talked about the hundreds of Hoosiers he employs. ber members. You have to pay to watch an event in the After an HPI interview with Yoder earlier this middle of the afternoon. I challenged my opponent to 10 month, it’s clear she doesn’t buy it debates and he only agreed to this one. I am and plans to make the label “Tennes- glad the chamber offered this one but I never see Trey” stick in voters’ minds at the thought a paid entry, untelevised event would polling booth. Yoder said she “isn’t be our only debate. We have to make more afraid to sound like a broken record opportunities for voters to get to know us.” when it comes to letting Hoosiers Without the chance to debate, Yoder know who my opponent is.” As a said she has been relying on the media and daughter of two Hoosiers, a Monroe speaking to voters directly in order to spread County councilwoman and university her message. “Hollingsworth flies in the face teacher, Yoder isn’t afraid to throw of everything we value as Hoosiers,” she said. some punches at her opponent. “He is somebody who thinks Hoosier votes “Hollingsworth says that he can be bought and sold by the highest bidder. has business interest here in Indiana. He is someone who doesn’t have strong ties I have friends here in Indiana,” Yoder to his neighbors or Indiana and who comes said. “I have family in Indiana. I care in here because his dad funds his campaign about the future of Indiana. He’s only by a SuperPac. I am going to go everywhere concerned about his business interest in the 9th CD and let people know that and and I am concerned about the future meet with every media member I can.” of our state. That worries me.” Yoder said that they have some media Yoder pointed out that Hol- ads in the pipeline and that the campaign is lingsworth has yet to release his tax closely watching Hollingsworth’s media buys. returns, while also alluding to Holling- “I don’t know what he is planning, but we are sworth’s official address being the Re- watching every day.” publican Senatorial Campaign office Hollingsworth released his first ad this in . “We don’t have a history month, which focused on his warehouse of him,” Yoder said. “Tell us who you rehabilitation business. The ad consisted of are. At least tell us where you last the same footage shot by the SuperPac back- lived, which is a complicated answer ing him that was heavily featured during his for my opponent. Voters deserve to unlikely primary win. Some reports estimated Page 10

Hollingsworth spent $2 million on ads in that primary. balancing Indiana’s budget, passing the largest tax cut in However, Hollingsworth has been quiet with media buys state history, and refutes the lies spread by Congressman after the primary TV blitz. Young and his Super PAC allies. It came on the heels of the WTHR/Howey Politics Governor Indiana Poll showing him with just a 44-40% lead over Republican Todd Young. Bayh campaign manager Paul Holcomb continues to pick up big checks Tencher and pollster Fred Yang (who polled for HPI in Republican gubernatorial nominee Eric Holcomb 2012 with Christine Matthews) held a Washington brief- continued to line up big donations, picking up big checks ing for insiders on Tuesday, but the campaign did release from the governor of and a former Indiana Republi- internal numbers. can chairman during a close to $200,000 haul. The checks But it prompted a Wednesday leading story on were reported of the Indiana secretary of state website Politico of Republicans “pouring it on” a Democrat who between Sept. 2-9: Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner, Winnetka, entered what was figured to be a slam dunk comeback in Il., $100,000; Sunrise Coal, Terre Haute, $50,000; Law- July. rence Garatoni, Mishawaka, $25,000; Allan Hubbard, In- Politico reported: Young has never led in a public dianapolis, $22,300; Frank Hoffman, survey, but two recent ones suggest Zionsville, $20,000; Charles Durack, the race is closer than in four previous Fort Wayne, $20,000; HealthPAC polls conducted by Democratic groups, $10,000; Hamilton County Profes- including one from Bayh’s campaign, sional Firefighters Local 4416 PAC, that had Bayh’s lead between 16 and Noblesville, $10,000; Sikhs PAC, 26 percentage points. An independent Fishers, $25,000; and Lenex Real survey for Howey Politics Indiana and Estate LLC, Indianapolis, $10,000. WTHR (conducted by a GOP firm) Democratic gubernato- showed Bayh ahead 44 percent to 40 rial nominee John Gregg picked up percent, while a previous Monmouth $30,000 in big checks, including poll showed Bayh up 48-41. A private $10,000 each from Frank Kelly of survey commissioned by a right-lean- Zionsville; the IN KY OH Regional ing outside group the week after Labor Council of Carpenters Indiana COPE; Day found Young within 10 points of Weinzapfel for Indiana, Evansville, Bayh, according to results shared with $10,000. POLITICO. On the “informed ballot” Holcomb began running — after respondents heard messages a new TV ad today, citing delayed about both candidates — Bayh led payments to local governments Young only 45-43. Meanwhile, Trump and schools, saying that when John has led over Hillary Clinton in recent Gregg was speaker “it didn’t work, it surveys, too, making Indiana one of didn’t have a happy ending.” the few 2016 Senate states where Republicans aren’t concerned about Senate top-of-the-ticket drag. Asked about the recent polls, Bayh campaign Ryan to stump for Young spokesman Ben Ray said that “this is Speaker of the House Paul a competitive race in a red state.” “We Ryan will travel to Fort Wayne Friday are ready,” Ray said. to hold a fundraiser for Congressman Todd Young, a news release stated. President Nearly 100 people are expected to be in attendance at the lunch event near downtown Fort Kaine campaigns in Gary Wayne. Earlier this week, former President George W. Indiana is in play, , Democratic vice Bush made two campaign stops for Young in Indiana: one presidential candidate, told campaign workers Wednesday in Elkhart and one in Indianapolis. during a visit to Northwest Indiana (Dolan, NWI Times). “Indiana is very important,” he told a crowd at Gary Mayor Bayh twins debut in a campaign under fire Karen Freeman-Wilson’s campaign headquarters on Gary’s The U.S. Senate campaign released West Side. “The presidential poll in Indiana has actually “Basketball,” the Democratic U.S. Senate nominee’s lat- tightened up. I saw a poll today, It’s a single digit ... 6 to 7 est ad focused on his record of working across the aisle (percent). That is still a little bit of a challenge, but that is for Hoosier families, saving 100,000 Hoosier auto jobs, very doable. I’ve been behind more than that,” he said. v Page 11

sion’s recommendations for finally dealing with so many of LBJ was a big man the continued inequalities from slavery never were pushed for passage by President . Too risky. Danger of losing support in what then was a Democratic “Solid when it came to rights South.” By JACK COLWELL Johnson, a southerner, took on the task of passing SOUTH BEND – President Lyndon B. Johnson was the Civil Rights Act as a top and personal goal. He did it a big man, 6-foot-4 and heavy-set, very heavy. I know. in the way he knew best in dealing with Congress. Pres- He once stepped on my foot. Accidental. Not because of sure. Unrelenting. And not exactly with tactics that Father anything I wrote. Happened as he toured devastation in Hesburgh, as a priest, would recommend. As also a realist, Elkhart County from the 1965 Palm Sunday tornadoes. Hesburgh knew it was what it took to get reluctant mem- Secret service agents kept pushing me along right beside bers of Congress to support the act. the president, either because he wanted the interview or The book, citing Hesburgh’s recorded presenta- because I provided a nice shield. tion to a class taught by Schmuhl, a Notre Dame professor, LBJ was a big man also in relates how Johnson, in Hesburgh’s words, was “ruthless” presidential accomplishments, in “a cause where nobody else could have gotten that law especially in civil rights, although through.” he was diminished in stature Hesburgh told of how Johnson would make by the war in Vietnam, one he phone calls, even in early morning hours, to members of couldn’t win but couldn’t figure Congress such as a senator committed to vote against out how to escape without be- what Johnson called “my bill.” What would happen, John- ing branded a loser. He didn’t son would ask that senator, if a Washington Post front- escape and was branded a loser, page story questioned what the senator was doing in a leaving office with such low certain room of the Mayflower Hotel every Saturday night voter approval that he declined at 9? to seek another term. The senator, realizing that Johnson, who seemed Last weekend, while in Austin, Texas, for a foot- to know everything about everybody in Washington, could ball game, exciting but featuring a seemingly defenseless leak devastating information, would say in the example Notre Dame team, I toured the LBJ Presidential Library cited by Hesburgh something like, “My God, they will kill and the nearby LBJ ranch, now a national park. While me.” his foibles and problems with Vietnam weren’t neglected And Johnson would reply, “You got that right. You in the presentations, it was the focus on the persuasive better vote for my bill.” And hang up. power of Johnson to get LBJ persuasion wasn’t all about blackmail. Re- things done in Con- gress, including pas- sage of the historic Civil Rights Act of 1964, that was of special interest to me. One reason was that I had just read in the new book about Notre Dame’s Theodore M. Hesburgh, “Fifty Years with Father Hesburgh,” by Robert Schmuhl, of admiration the long-time Notre Dame president and key member of the Civil Rights Commission had for Johnson’s determi- nation to push through President Lyndon Johnson surveys the Palm Sunday 1965 tornado damage in Elkhart County, where more that 1964 act, despite than 50 people were killed. As LBJ walked, the Secret Service pushed Jack Colwell and U.S. Rep. John the odds and political Brademas along with him, no doubt with instructions to keep the local congressman and the local political dangers. writer right next to the president for obvious reasons. LBJ, by the way, joked with Brademas about all his The commis- girlfriends. Brademas then was a bachelor known for escorting pretty girls. (South Bend Tribune photo) Page 12 corded phone conversations at the LBJ concerned with, Johnson thun- Library let us hear how he played hard- dered, not band instruments. Hartke ball with members of Congress over could only get in meekly that the appropriations. Support “my bill” and I’ll instruments still were a concern in consider that extra appropriation you Elkhart. want for your state. The LBJ way got things done One recorded conversation was then wouldn’t work today. Of with Sen. Vance Hartke of Indiana, who course, now, no approach seems to was endangering passage of a bill John- get anything done. v son wanted because of special treatment Hartke wanted for musical instruments, Colwell has covered Indiana then a vital business in Elkhart. politics over five decades for The bill itself is what voters nationally were the South Bend Tribune.

a bullseye, but very close. The IBRC projections exceeded Population projections the estimates in 74 of Indiana’s 92 counties; they fell short of the estimates in only18 counties. Which is better, to exceed or fall short? If projec- are running high tions exceed our best guess (the estimates) of reality, we By MORTON MARCUS may have over-built, invested too much. But are we better INDIANAPOLIS – After the housing bubble col- off having more growth than expected and then finding we lapse of 2007-8, I thought of forming Economists Anony- have not invested enough, ending up short on essentials? mous, a self-help group of forecasting addicts. I couldn’t Over a five-year span, when the differences get anyone to join me. in absolute numbers are small and the percentage differ- Forecasts and projections are in demand. ences are slight, it probably does not matter much. We Someone will do them and should be pleased that the IBRC projections were within they are best if done by people one-half of one percent (.5 percent) of the estimates in 18 who are informed, trained, and counties and within 2 percent of the estimates in another cautious. Caution is important 42 counties. because statements about the Yet users of Indiana population projections will be future are taken seriously; lives asking questions about the remaining third of the counties. and fortunes may depend on Why did the projections come in 14,400 and 8,800 too them. high for Lake and Hamilton counties respectively? Why, in Forecasts and projec- Marion County, were the projections 11,000 too low. Does tions are compared to what we the Great Recession explain everything? believe we know about the pres- According to the IBRC projections, Indiana will ent. Annual population estimates have a population of 6.85 million in 2020. But, if we by the U.S. Bureau of the Census continue on the growth path of the first five years of this are as close as we can get to decade, we will fall short of that figure by 93,700. how many people live where. These estimates, however, Matt Kinghorn is probably working on a new set of are not perfect. Thus, measuring projections against the Indiana population projections. As the world continues to estimates involves using two imperfect sets of numbers. change, changes need to be incorporated into our thinking Matt Kinghorn at the IU Indiana Business Re- and planning for Indiana’s future. v search Center (IBRC) does population projections. He meets all the criteria for a good forecaster and he doesn’t Mr. Marcus is an economist, writer, and speaker give up. Whether his results are on or off target, he keeps who may be reached at mortonjmarcus@yahoo. going, testing, improving. He knows people in business com. and government need guidelines for their investments. The IBRC projections Matt produced in 2012, based on history up to 2010, indicated Indiana would have a 2015 population of 6.68 million persons. The 2015 esti- mates from the Census Bureau came in at 6.62 million or 58,000 persons (.9 percent) shy of the projections. In the world of state population projections, that is on target; not Page 13

party has held the White House, and so on. Averaging all Trump rearranging the forecasts together shows a two-party vote of Clinton 50.5% and Trump 49.5%. Obviously, that’s very close, and taken together these models produced a very similar the electorate prediction in 2012 (Obama 50.2%, Romney 49.8%). That By LARRY SABATO, KYLE KONDIK undersold Obama, who won with 52.0% of the two-party and GEOFFREY SKELLEY vote. CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. – Every presidential The problem in 2016 is that the assumptions election is different, but nobody’s going to tell us that this that undergird some models are disputable. Take our one isn’t notably different from any other in the modern senior columnist, Alan Abramowitz of Emory University. His period. “Time for Change” model has an admirable record of pre- It’s not just that the two major-party candidates diction over many years, nailing the popular-vote winner in are so disliked and unpopular with much of the public. every cycle going back to 1988. Yet this time, Abramowitz While Donald Trump’s numbers are has declared that his model will no better and sometimes worse, Hill- probably miss the mark. Why? As ary Clinton’s unfavorables are about Abramowitz explains it, the as- as bad as we’ve ever seen for a sumptions upon which the model frontrunner, with about three in five is built are unsound: “First, that voters saying she’s not honest and both major parties will nominate trustworthy, a product of the stories mainstream candidates capable of about the Clinton Foundation, her unifying their parties and, second, private emails, and decades-long that the candidates will conduct controversies involving Clinton and equally effective campaigns so that her husband, the former president. the overall outcome will closely Trump got some of the best polls reflect the ‘fundamentals’ incorpo- he has enjoyed of the entire cycle rated in the model.” on Wednesday, taking leads in the must-win (for him) Abramowitz’s model predicts a modest Republican states of and Ohio. Clinton is struggling with con- victory this November, and considering Clinton’s myriad cerns about her health, and her status as the frontrunner weaknesses and a competitive political environment, it is in this race is eroding. Perhaps she can pull herself out of easy to imagine it if the GOP had nominated a mainstream her tailspin, and the upcoming debate on Sept. 26 should candidate. (We’ll let you go through the 17 contestants be a big moment. If she continues to sink, the electoral and decide which ones might have been able to unite the map we have long tilted in her favor will be getting a lot party, run a solid campaign, and win.) Trump is neither redder. mainstream nor conducting a campaign that is anything Nonetheless, the defining difference in this elec- close technologically and financially to the Clinton effort. tion is not Clinton but Trump. Forget Wendell Willkie: In our view, this is why, along with strong par- There has never been a presidential nominee like him. tisan polarization, the contest, while close, has had Clinton He has divided the Republican Party -- separating party pretty consistently in the lead: Trump is underperforming elites from much of the party’s populist base -- and he the fundamentals and reducing the odds of a GOP win. In has rearranged the electorate in ways we haven’t ever another era, say the 1960s through the 1980s, the 2016 seen, at least to this extent. Minority groups appear to be contest might well have produced a Democratic landslide rejecting him by margins as bad or worse than recent GOP much as outlier candidates in 1964 () nominees. Trump is having trouble winning a group that and in 1972 (George McGovern) generated big swings is normally quite Republican: college-educated whites. At to the other party. Yet dislike of Clinton and polarization the same time, he has drawn very sizable, exceptionally have kept her margin to a few points, excepting the post- intense backing from non-college whites and, dispropor- convention bounce period. Clinton also faces an unprec- tionately, blue-collar white men, and he has the potential edented challenge: She is not simply seeking President to out-perform ’s 2012 showing among that Obama’s third term and, in a sense, being responsible for group. the Obama record (good and bad), but in a way she is also Regular readers will have noticed that we have pursuing ’s third term, too. Never before has a been publishing political scientists’ predictive models for party nominee been held accountable for two two-term 2016, the quadrennial attempt to use certain variables presidents. to project the election results (at least the popular vote) It may be that Clinton, if she does indeed win, will months in advance. We’re publishing our final update on mimic one of Obama’s victory margins (four percentage these models this week. They are mostly derived from points in 2012 or seven in 2008). Polarization was espe- election fundamentals that don’t change much over time cially evident in Obama’s reelection contest. A four-point – economic conditions, the number of consecutive terms a margin would be consistent with the Electoral College map Page 14 the Crystal Ball has largely maintained since March: Her Generally, when the campaign has been more total of 348 electoral votes would place her performance about Trump, he has suffered, and when it’s been more in between Obama 2012 (332) and Obama 2008 (365). about Clinton, she has suffered. has been ask- For Clinton to duplicate Obama’s 2008 broader sweep, ing Americans if they have heard or seen anything about Trump would probably have to collapse in the final weeks Clinton and/or Trump in “the last day or two,” which allows because of the accumulation of controversies and the lack us to get a rough feel for which candidate is getting more of preparation in the ground game. If Clinton barely wins attention on a given day. or Trump pulls an upset to rival Over the period of July 5 to Sept. 1948 (Harry Truman over Thomas 13, there’s a weak negative cor- Dewey), it probably means that relation (-.29) between Trump’s Trump did something to improve polling margin in the HuffPost voters’ perceptions of his quali- Pollster average and the mar- fications for office -- right now, gin between what percentage of a majority of the electorate does respondents say they’ve heard not believe he’s qualified -- and about Trump minus the percent- Clinton, through a combination age who say they’ve heard about of mistakes, controversies, and Clinton. That is, there appears to Democratic apathy, can’t generate be at least a little bit of an inverse the kind of Democratic turnout she relationship between the relative needs. level of coverage of Trump on the The challenge for the campaign trail and his polling mar- Democrats is to keep 2016 from gin. The more coverage, the worse becoming a change election, which his margin is, and vice versa. This it might have been without Trump (and could still be- correlation is stronger (-.49) over the past month (Aug. 13 come). Prospective Clinton voters will have to be reminded to Sept. 13), moving beyond the convention period. constantly why she believes Trump is unacceptable and What’s problematic for Trump is that while why they have to swallow hard and vote for a candidate we’ve seen this race yo-yo quite a bit over the past several many are not enthused about. While our Electoral Col- months, it generally moves from a big Clinton lead to a lege ratings still show a Clinton victory, the polls have small Clinton lead (where we are now). clearly gotten closer in recent weeks. Clinton is generally What we have not seen in polling is a period up about two-to-four points nationally in polling averages where Trump takes a consistent lead nationally and in a (based on RealClearPolitics and HuffPost Pollster), consid- significant number of state-level polls, although that may erably tighter than the lofty eight-point lead she enjoyed be unfolding right now. The key question of the moment in both averages about a month ago, when she was still is whether the race is clearly trending in Trump’s direction, basking in a post-convention glow and Trump was making and he soon will start to take consistent leads, or whether mistake after mistake. In the lead-up to Labor Day, Clinton Clinton will reassert herself. v faced several questions about her emails and the Clinton Foundation, and Trump’s coverage became less negative by comparison. Now Clinton is getting questions about her health (or, more appropriately, questions about how transparent she is being about her health) and Trump has succeeded, at the moment, in making the election less about him than about her. As former Obama speechwriter Jon Favreau observed, the race tends to get tighter when Clinton gets more attention and widens out to a bigger Clinton lead when Trump gets more attention, with an exception being the Democratic convention, which was essentially a big campaign ad for Clinton. This makes sense, particularly when the public views both candidates so poorly and coverage often focuses on their negatives (Trump’s lack of qualification for office and controversial statements versus Clinton’s lack of transparency and ethical challenges). Page 15

to the process and broadening our understanding of what Social media challenge it means to be American. But if information has become more ubiquitous and powerful, so has misinformation. It spreads rapidly, to our democracy passed along from user to user with no check. Posts tend By LEE HAMILTON to have no room for nuance; arguments can be explosive BLOOMINGTON – Does the ubiquity of information and arguers aggressive; drama and hysteria fuel polariza- available through social media really help citizens under- tion; special interests can’t help but take advantage of the stand complex issues, weigh competing arguments, and context-free nature of social media. reach discriminating judgments about politics? All of this makes it far more difficult for policy I’ve been involved in politics for the better part makers to sift through everything coming their way on of a lifetime, and have spoken at a lot of public meetings any given topic. If a significant portion of the information over the years. One question I’ve heard more than any that’s available consists of misleading graphs, false facts, other: “If I want to be an informed citizen, which sources misstatements, and outright lies, the process of arriving at of information should I consult?” good policy becomes fragile and laden with traps. Which For many years, I had a is why the sheer quantity of information bestowed on us set answer: Read one or more by social media does not necessarily improve the quality of the respected national news of public dialogue. It does not always help citizens make sources, The New York Times, good choices. , The And that’s really the key question: Does the ubiq- Washington Post, the Financial uity of information available through social media really Times, , etc. I’m help citizens understand complex issues, weigh competing not sure how good that answer arguments, and reach discriminating judgments about poli- was at the time, but I know tics? Or does it overwhelm them with bursts of information for certain it would be woefully that is so mixed as to quality that people simply throw up inadequate now. Younger people, their hands, or, worse, charge full-tilt ahead based on a in particular, get far more of their false understanding of reality? information from social media The answer, of course, is that it’s a mixed bag. than from traditional news sources. The jury’s still out on whether we’re becoming better The internet and social media have upended our citizens because we have more information and opinion at expectations of what it means to be well-informed. Plat- our fingertips. Certainly, the information world we live in forms and websites that take advantage of online and today is putting more stress on individual voters to make mobile connectivity are like a firehose, providing enormous discriminating choices and on our representative democ- quantities of information, opinion, news, statements, racy, which rests on institutions that were designed in the videos, images, analysis, charts, graphs, all of it instantly 18th and 19th centuries. available. Facebook, , Snapchat and other platforms Our political process has proved resilient over have become the way many of our citizens communicate. centuries, and has served us well. But social media pose They have become a force for mobilizing large groups of a powerful challenge. They’ve brought great gifts and people to apply political pressure on short notice. equally great risks, and we’d be prudent to be cautious. v The question is, what impact does this have on the public dialogue, and on representative democracy? Lee Hamilton is a Senior Advisor for the Indiana Clearly, these are powerful tools. As the rise University Center on Representative Government; of the Tea Party and the alarm over price increases for the a Distinguished Scholar, IU School of Global and EpiPen demonstrate, they can galvanize large, energetic International Studies; and a Professor of Practice, groups of people who oppose a specific target. They make IU School of Public and Environmental Affairs. He more information quickly available from more sources. was a member of the U.S. House of Representatives They make it possible for users to do their own fact-check- for 34 years. ing (I can tell you, it’s quite intimidating as a speaker to watch members of the audience checking up on what you just said). They allow people to get into the action and take part in political dialogue. They give citizens multiple ways to engage the attention and interest of policy makers – and give policy makers multiple ways to gauge public opinion and seek to understand the interests and needs of constituents. They’ve brought new groups into the public dialogue who were not there before, adding fresh voices Page 16

Evan Bayh when he made his first Northwest Indiana ap- Northwest Indiana is pearance after announcing he intended to seek the Senate seat both he and his father formerly held. Besides Pastrick, the senior Bayh was the darling of labor unions who con- Bayh country trolled the Region politically until their numbers began to By RICH JAMES dwindle in the 1980s. MERRILLVILLE – While the latest poll shows Although he is much less liberal than his father, Democrat Evan Bayh leading Republican Todd Young by Evan Bayh, too, has been embraced by Northwest Indiana. four percentage points in the race for the U.S. Senate, the Perhaps because of the hefty local plurality he enjoyed margin likely is much different in Northwest Indiana. For during his first run for governor, Evan Bayh named Lake two generations, this corner of the state has been Bayh County’s Michael A. Pannos as state Democratic chairman. country. Although a good number of Democrats are still up- It began with Birch Bayh, Evan’s father, who was set that Evan Bayh gave up his Senate seat six years ago, elected to the U.S. Senate in they have again embraced him. With the death of Gov. 1962 and reelected twice. Birch Frank O’Bannon and Bayh’s decision to retire from public Bayh, of course, lost a 1980 life, Indiana was left without a Democratic leader. So Bayh bid to become the first Hoosier now is being looked on as a savior of sorts. to be elected to four terms in Democrats know they are better off with Bayh the Senate, falling victim to the running for the Senate than , who is not as national push in 1980 to throw popular and more liberal. Being a , out the most liberal from the Bayh fits nicely into Indiana, which is one of the most red Senate. states in the country. Bayh’s loss, of course, had Bayh, who had designs on the presidency, was on a substantial impact on history, the short list to be Hillary Clinton’s running mate if she got in that he was defeated by Dan the nomination in 2008. Bayh will be in Lake County for Quayle who went on to become the annual Democratic rally just prior to the election. His vice president. The senior Bayh father’s old friends are expected to be there to greet him. had a host of backers in Northwest Indiana, particularly v then-East Chicago Mayor Robert A. Pastrick, who had a knack for turning out huge Democratic pluralities on Elec- Rich James has been writing about state and local tion Day. If Pastrick wanted something out of Washington, government and politics for more than 30 years. He Bayh provided it. is a columnist for The Times of Northwest Indiana. In fact, it was Pastrick who was on hand to greet Page 17

Jennifer Rubin, Washington Post: When Evan New York magazine, which wondered sarcastically if there Bayh, Indiana’s former senator and governor, announced was any overlap in Bayh’s business interests and policy in- in mid-July he would enter the race for the Senate against terests. Indiana is a major player in medical device manu- Rep. Todd Young (R-Ind.) both sides thought the Demo- facturing, with the industry employing more than 16,000 crats had drawn an inside straight. A popular governor and workers there. Determining the tax’s economic conse- senator, a moderate record and high name ID? Against quences is difficult—the tax only took effect in 2013 and is a young, lesser-known congressman who was elected in now subject to a temporary moratorium. But Young points 2010, Bayh seemed like he could be the nail in the GOP to anecdotal evidence that companies have nixed expan- Senate majority’s coffin. An early partisan Democratic poll sion plans because of it. Cook Medical (based in Young’s showed him up some 26 points in August. An independent hometown, Bloomington) put off building five new plants poll taken about the same time had Bayh up by 7. Now, throughout the midwest. Southern Indiana hospital equip- the WTHR/Howey Politics Indiana Poll shows Bayh up just ment maker Hill-Rom cited the tax as one of three factors 4, within the margin of error. Word spread on social media prompting it to lay off 200 workers in 2012. “The issue that a closed door meeting with big donors and Bayh’s most on Hoosiers’ minds is job creation, job retention, pollster was set up, presumably to calm fraying nerves. Is and household income,” Young says. “To the extent I can Bayh a Democratic savior or, like , a rusty profes- continue communicating to Hoosiers that Obamacare is an sional pol out of office for more than a decade and unused anti-jobs law, a piece of legislation that has cut into the to high pressure, Twitter-driven coverage? So far it seems income of regular Hoosiers, then we are going to persuade like the latter. v people that this is of great significance and a disqualifying factor as they assess my candidacy and compare it to Evan Bayh’s.” It’s not a question Bayh wants to answer in reality. Chris Deaton, Weekly Standard: (Bayh’s campaign didn’t respond to an interview In Indiana, Republican representative Todd request for this story.) It’s a cautious position. Young is running for the U.S. Senate seat And understandable—because for Bayh and the being vacated by Dan Coats; he’s up against issue of the health care law, sunlight might be a ballot-box rarity, a lawmaker who voted for more of a pathogen than a disinfectant. v Obamacare who has yet to face the judgment of the voters, former senator Evan Bayh. A moderate Democrat, Bayh had at first been Dave Bangert, Lafayette Journal skeptical of Obama’s health reform bill, but he became a & Courier: During Gary Johnson’s stop last week on pivotal convert on the legislation’s path to the president’s “,” Joy Behar, a cohost of the ABC roundtable desk. Bayh provided one of the critical Senate votes Dem- talk show, asked the Libertarian presidential candidate to ocrats needed to thwart the bill’s opponents in December decide. “If someone had a gun to your head,” Behar asked 2009. Two months later, Bayh announced his intention to the former, two-term New Mexico governor, “would you depart public office, saying that while “my passion for ser- vote for Hillary or Trump?” Johnson’s answer: “I would let vice to our fellow citizens is undiminished … my desire to it go off.” And on that note — a statement to sum up the do so by serving in Congress has waned.” Time must have national mood, not to mention the underlying tenet of his been restorative. Bayh was coaxed out of elective retire- third-party campaign — Johnson arrived in West Lafayette ment earlier this year to replace a Democratic candidate on Tuesday evening for a public Q&A with Purdue Presi- who almost certainly would have lost. Young is betting that dent Mitch Daniels. In line outside the France A. Córdova Hoosiers haven’t forgotten how Obamacare was passed Recreational Sports Center, Corey Strain, a Purdue junior and will give Bayh a taste of what he missed six Novem- from Texas, pondered the same question. He was wearing bers ago. “They’re seeking answers, and the answer is a light-blue T-shirt featuring the Libertarian’s face, circled that Evan Bayh cast the deciding vote,” Young says. Bayh by the words: “Feel the Johnson 2016.” This election was no typical backer of the law, however. He threatened wasn’t exactly a gun to the head, he figured. Still, what to hold out through much of the legislative process in 2009 about Johnson’s rhetorical point in general principle? “This and only signed on when the measure’s tax on medical definitely is a lesser-of-two-evils thing,” Strain said. “It’s device sales was halved from 4.6 to 2.3 percent. He later like, ‘I don’t want this guy. And I don’t want this woman.’ expressed buyer’s remorse, writing in the Wall Street Jour- And you start looking around and you find Gary Johnson. nal that the tax proved to be a “law of unintended conse- … He seems, I don’t know, like an actual person.” Up and quences,” stifling the very manufacturers that Democrats down the queue for the Co-Rec and then inside the gym — believed would flourish under Obamacare as newly insured where the 1,840 seats set up were more than three-quar- Americans made use of more medical products. Bayh ters taken — there was almost a desperation for anything called on his former colleagues to repeal the tax. His bio other than this guy (Donald Trump) or this woman (Hillary credit-line in the Journal—”He is a partner at the McGuire- Clinton). “I’m at the point of, ‘What else do you got?’” said Woods law firm, which represents several medical-device Terry Simons, who took the afternoon off work to drive to companies”—inspired mockery from the New Republic and West Lafayette from Frankfort. “I know I’m not alone.” v Page 18

ents to avoid the anti-secrecy site — legislation if it reaches his desk. The Dean White which has posted leaked material from prison has been used to hold hun- the Democratic National Committee dreds of terrorists and suspected ter- dies at 93 — because of concerns about malware rorists since 2002; of the 61 detainees embedded in the leaks. “Due to the that remain there, 20 have been CROWN POINT — Dean potential of malware attached to the cleared for transfer. The Washington V. White was a developer, hotelier, site, we are under advisement from Post characterized Walorski’s bill as theater impresario and [interim DNC] Chair [Donna] “a final showdown in the eight-year major marketer, but Brazile to stay away in the struggle between Republicans and never a self-promoter interest of maintaining some President Obama” over the future of (NWI Times). In 2015, security,” added the email, Guantanamo. White had a net worth written by Raymond Buckley, of $2.5 billion and had president of the Association Elkhart County been named to Forbes of State Democratic Chairs, magazine’s 400 richest people in the which is affiliated with the DNC. treasurer dies world many times. That same year, he was listed as the 268th richest Deadly heroin ELKHART — Elkhart County American. White died Wednesday. Treasurer Jackie Meyers, a 40-year He was 93. Forbes Magazine’s real- arrives in LaPorte county employee who was up for time ranking of billionaires placed re-election to the treasurer’s position White as the 789th richest person in LaPORTE — It appears the this fall, died Tuesday (Elkhart Truth). the world Wednesday. He also was a deadly combination of heroin laced Meyers, 61, had been diagnosed with major Republican donor, and donated with the powerful painkiller fentanyl breast cancer in the spring of 2015, $1 million to American Crossroads in has found its way into LaPorte. At according to Jodi Jones, the first dep- the 2012 campaign cycle. White has least six overdoses have occurred in uty treasurer in the office. “She really supported numerous Indiana Republi- the area since reports first surfaced treated us like family. It is definitely a cans, including state Rep. and House Wednesday that heroin mixed with tough loss for our office,” Jones said. Speaker Brian Bosma, R-Indianapolis, fentanyl had crept into the area, said and has also donated money to the LaPorte Metro Operations coordina- Arguments in House Republican Campaign Com- tor Harlan Williams (South Bend Syrian refugee case mittee of Indiana. White has been an Tribune). The mixture of the two highly addictive opiates is suspected unmatched powerhouse of funding for CHICAGO — Attorneys de- the war chests of Indiana’s political in each of the cases and could have played a role in a half dozen other fending Indiana Gov. Mike Pence’s or- party of power throughout the years. der to bar agencies from helping Syr- He personally pumped $4 million into overdoses here during a two-week stretch prior to that, authorities said. ian refugees resettle in his state faced five of the Indiana GOP’s six largest unusually fierce questioning before campaign funds between 2011 and Less than 5 grams of fentanyl was recovered Sunday night during the a federal appeals court Wednesday, 2014, a Times’ analysis of state cam- suggesting the panel might side with paign finance records revealed. arrest of a 39-year-old LaPorte man, who emerged as a target from a a lower court that found the order State Democrat ramped-up police investigation aimed discriminatory. A three-judge panel for at quickly cutting off the source of the the 7th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in drug. Chicago zeroed in on the intelligence parties hacked and intent behind the Republican vice WASHINGTON — Hackers are House to vote on presidential candidate’s order, which a targeting state Democratic Party of- federal judge said in February “clearly ficials and have successfully breached Walorski Gitmo bill discriminates” against refugees from and impersonated some of them, the war-torn nation. Judges suggested according to a message the Associa- SOUTH BEND — The U.S. that Indiana could’ve had a stronger tion of State Democratic Chairs sent House of Representatives is scheduled argument for entirely opting out of Wednesday to its members (Politico). to vote Thursday on a bill that Rep. the refugee program — for which “A number of chairs and state parties Jackie Walorski, R-Jimtown, authored states disperse federal money to have been victims of hacks and im- to stop President Obama from trans- resettlement organizations — instead personation recently,” read the email, ferring prisoners out of Guantanamo of excluding Syrians. “If you’re in, you which POLITICO obtained. The mes- Bay (Allen, South Bend Tribune). The play by the government’s rules,” Judge sage, titled “Security Alert: Please Do Obama administration has already Frank Easterbrook said. Not Search Wikileaks!,” warned recipi- indicated the president will veto the