Swindon Local Transport Plan refresh Evidence Base Swindon Borough Council

14 April 2021

Notice

This document and its contents have been prepared and are intended solely as information for and use in relation to Swindon Local Transport Plan refresh Atkins Limited assumes no responsibility to any other party in respect of or arising out of or in connection with this document and/or its contents. This document has 66 pages including the cover.

Document history Document title: Evidence Base Document reference: Evidence Base Revision Purpose description Originated Checked Reviewed Authorised Date Rev 1.0 Draft for review PrB PeB / IW CM IW 19/02/21 Rev 2.0 Draft for review PrB IW PeB IW 12/03/21 Rev 3.0 Final - - - IW 14/04/21

Client signoff Client Swindon Borough Council Project Swindon Local Transport Plan refresh Job number 5189028 / AK00077 Client signature/date

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Contents

Chapter Page 1. Introduction 6 Glossary of abbreviations 6 2. Population and growth 8 Forecast population growth 8 Local growth 9 3. Transport changes and growth 11 Transport networks and connectivity 11 Employment and commuting 22 Transport demand 25 Congestion 32 Reducing carbon dioxide emissions 38 4. Safety and access 40 Road safety 40 Asset management 41 Access to services 44 5. Health and quality of life 48 Number of people aged 65+ 48 Index of Multiple Deprivation: Health 48 Physical activity 50 Local air quality 51 Local noise 52 Journey experience 54 6. Future data collection 56

Appendices 57 Roads excluded in accident analysis 58 Ranking of Swindon’s in- and out-commuting locations 59 Journey time ratios 61 Distribution of population groups in Swindon 62

Tables Table 3-1 – Journey times to international airports and ports 14 Table 3-2 – Top five most common out-commuting destinations for Swindon residents 22 Table 3-3 – Top five resident locations of those who work in Swindon 23 Table 3-4 - Car or van availability 28 Table 3-5 – Number of Council-owned fee paying public car parking spaces in Swindon 29 Table 3-6 - Commuting by public transport 31 Table 3-7 - Transport schemes included in Swindon Transport Model (2036) 35 Table 4-1 – Highway Asset Management policy links to council priorities 42

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Table 4-2 – Swindon Borough Council highway asset information 42 Table 5-1 - Projection by age group 48 Table 5-2 - Method of travel to work (2011 Census) 50 Table 5-3 - NHT 2020 results for Swindon 54

Figures Figure 2-1 - Population growth projection 8 Figure 2-2 - Population growth by age 8 Figure 2-3 - Local Plan 2026 development areas 9 Figure 3-1 - Cycle routes in Swindon 11 Figure 3-2 - Bus network map 12 Figure 3-3 - Rail network 13 Figure 3-4 - A roads and motorways 14 Figure 3-5 - Journey times by car from Swindon during the morning peak period (0700-1000) 16 Figure 3-6 - Journey times by rail from Swindon during the morning peak period (0700-1000) 17 Figure 3-7 - Journey times by bus from Swindon during the morning peak period (0700-1000) 18 Figure 3-8 - Journey times by bus from Swindon during the morning peak period (0700-1000) – magnified 19 Figure 3-9 - Public transport to car journey time ratios 20 Figure 3-10 - Travel times between Swindon and Royal Wootton Bassett 21 Figure 3-11 - Travel times between Swindon and Calne 21 Figure 3-12 - Travel times between Swindon and Oxford 21 Figure 3-13 Public transport and car travel times between Swindon and Highworth 21 Figure 3-14 - Public transport and car travel times between Swindon and Newbury 22 Figure 3-15 - Public transport and car travel times between Swindon and Cirencester 22 Figure 3-16 - Commuting patterns in Swindon 24 Figure 3-17 - Commuting distance and modal share (residents) 24 Figure 3-18 - Commuting distance and modal share (workplace) 25 Figure 3-19 - Vehicle kilometres travelled in Swindon 26 Figure 3-20 - DfT count sites and 2019 counts 26 Figure 3-21 - Annual average daily flow (AADF) by mode 27 Figure 3-22 - AADF modal split (2019) 27 Figure 3-23 - Car or van availability 28 Figure 3-24 - Historical and future car park demand based on growth scenarios 30 Figure 3-25 - Passenger journeys on local bus services in Swindon, the South West region and England 31 Figure 3-26 - Number of rail passenger entries and exits at Swindon rail station 31 Figure 3-27 - Average speed on local 'A' roads (mph) 32 Figure 3-28 - Average delay on local 'A' roads (seconds per vehicle per mile, spvpm) 33 Figure 3-29 - 2018 congestion in the AM peak hour (0800-0900) 34 Figure 3-30 - 2018 congestion in the PM peak hour (1700-1800) 34 Figure 3-31 - Transport schemes and developments 35 Figure 3-32 - Scheme timeline 36 Figure 3-33 - Percentage of non-frequent bus services running on time 37

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Figure 3-34 - Carbon dioxide emissions from all roads (as a percentage of the 2005 figure) 38 Figure 3-35 – Total energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in 2018 38 Figure 3-36 - Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions for England, the South West and Swindon 39 Figure 4-1 - Total number of accidents and traffic, Swindon 40 Figure 4-2 - Total number of accidents, comparison 41 Figure 4-3 - Accident rate per km of road 41 Figure 4-4 - Number of under-18s killed or seriously injured in road accidents 41 Figure 4-5 – Percentage of the population with access to services via walking and public transport45 Figure 4-6 - Proportion of households with no access to a car or van 46 Figure 4-7 - Barriers to Housing and Services 2015 47 Figure 4-8 - Barriers to Housing and Services 2019 47 Figure 5-1 - Health Deprivation and Disability domain 2015 49 Figure 5-2 - Health Deprivation and Disability domain 2019 49 Figure 5-3 - Excess weight in children in reception year and year 6 50 Figure 5-4 - Air Quality Management Area 51 Figure 5-5 - AQMA and population density of vulnerable groups 52 Figure 5-6 - Noise mapping 53 Figure 5-7 - Rail passenger satisfaction 2019 55 Figure D-1 - Distribution of Black and Minority Ethnic groups in Swindon 62 Figure D-2 - Distribution of over 70's in Swindon 63 Figure D-3 - Distribution of under 16’s in Swindon 64 Figure D-4 - Index of Multiple Deprivation 65

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1. Introduction

Swindon Borough Council is in the process of undertaking a refresh of its Local Transport Plan (LTP). Since the current LTP (3) was produced in 2011 the local transport context has changed significantly. The council is now taking the opportunity to refresh the LTP to reflect both the changes in the transport system in recent years and their aspirations to transform Swindon into a town for the future. The refresh is intended to result in a streamlined and more relevant LTP (4) which will present a forward-thinking plan to support the delivery of schemes which will facilitate economic growth and regeneration in Swindon. The LTP refresh has been undertaken in a phased approach with the end goal of providing a proportionately refreshed LTP4. The first stages of the refresh focused on reviewing the existing document, identifying areas for development and building an understanding of how the transport, social, environment and economic context has changed since 2011. This document presents the transport related data which forms an evidence base for LTP4. The data presented in this report has been gathered and analysed at various stages of the LTP refresh study between summer 2019 and spring 2021. The document includes information on the following topics: • Population and growth; • Transport changes and growth; • Safety and access; and • Health and quality of life. While much of the data was analysed during the COVID-19 pandemic, the impact of the pandemic has not been explicitly considered in this evidence base due to constraints on the availability of data and the uncertainty presented by the pandemic. Glossary of abbreviations • Air Quality Management Area (AQMA) – An area deemed by a local authority to be exceeding the prescribed limit of differing air pollutants. This invokes the development of a Local Air Quality Action Plan to resolve the issue. • Annual Average Daily Flow (AADF) – Measurement of the total volume of vehicles using the highway over a given time period. • Carbon Dioxide (CO2) - A Greenhouse gas which can be produced by combustion engines. • Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG) – NHS organisation which since 2012, organise the delivery of NHS services in England. • Department for Transport (DfT) – The national governing body for transportation in England. • Geographical Information Systems (GIS) – Software which is used to interrogate and present spatial data. • Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) - A relative measurement of multiple deprivation at the small area level which ranks all LSOAs in the country based on their score. • Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA) – A process whereby local authorities and clinical commissioning groups outline and evaluate the current and future health and wellbeing needs of a local community. • Killed or Seriously Injured (KSI) – Road traffic collisions where someone is killed or seriously injured.

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• Local Plan – A document prepared by the local planning authority which outlines the vision for land use and policies in a given area. The plan is used to inform decision making when considering planning applications and ensures consistency in development. • Local Transport Plan (LTP) – A statutory required document to outline the transport needs, challenges and opportunities within a local authority area over a given time period. • Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs) – A data output area which is socially homogenous encompassing up to 3000 people. These are used to assess a range of census and population metrics at a small scale. • National Highways and Transport (NHT) Network - a performance improvement organisation which measures and compares the performance of various aspects of the transport network in order to support improvement. • Nitrogen Dioxide (NO₂) – A Greenhouse gas which can be produced by combustion engines. • Noise Important Areas (NIA) – Areas identified to be noise hotspots which may impact those living in the vicinity this designation then requires action plans to be developed to reduce the impact of noise pollution. • Office for of National Statistics (ONS) – A governmental department which collates and distributes national statistics. • Office of Road and Rail (ORR) – A non-ministerial government department involved in economic and safety regulation of Britain’s railways alongside the economic monitoring of Highways England. • TRACC – GIS software which can be used to model and map journey times based on public transport and walking. • Transport for London (TfL) – The local governing body responsible for the transport systems across Greater London.

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2. Population and growth Forecast population growth Figure 2-1 shows that the population of Swindon has been steadily growing since 2000 and is expected to continue to do so according to the 2016-based population projection produced by the Office of National Statistics. Swindon Borough Council’s own population projections are considered in Section 5. The forecast population for 2029 is broken down by age group in Figure 2-2. This shows that the largest growth is expected among those over the age of 65, followed by the 16 to 24 and 50 to 64 age groups. A small decrease is expected in the 0 to 15 age group and the number of 25 to 49 year olds is expected to remain approximately constant. Figure 2-1 - Population growth projection

Population projections - local authority based by single year of age; Population estimates - local authority based by single year of age

Figure 2-2 - Population growth by age

Population projections - local authority based by single year of age; Population estimates - local authority based by single year of age

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Local growth

Forecast housing growth (adopted Local Plan 2026) According to the Swindon Local Plan 2026 (Policy SD2: The Sustainable Development Strategy), sustainable economic and housing growth will be delivered in Swindon Borough during the plan period through the provision of approximately, but not less than, 22,000 dwellings between 2011 and 2026, phased as follows: • 1,150 average per annum between 2011 and 2016; and • 1,625 average per annum between 2016 and 2026. The adopted Local Plan 2026 also identifies that economic growth will be delivered through the provision of 119.5 hectares of employment land (B-use class) through: • 77.5 hectares of additional employment land (including land with permission at Wichelstowe, Tadpole Farm and Commonhead); and • 42 hectares with extant permission and existing allocations carried forward.

Growth areas (adopted Local Plan 2026) Figure 2-3 - Local Plan 2026 development areas

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Swindon Borough Local Plan 2036 Proposed Submission Draft December 2019 (consulted January 2020) The current adopted Local Plan for Swindon is for the period up to 2026. The authority is currently in the process of developing a Local Plan for the period to 2036. The Local Plan 2036 continues the strategic priorities and objectives from the Local Plan 2026. The pre-submission draft of the next Local Plan for the borough outlines the quantum and location of development in Swindon to 2036 and planning policies to support this. It identifies that Swindon faces a challenge to deliver economic growth in Swindon Borough in a way that is balanced, sustainable and improves the quality of life of all. The council sets out that their balanced approach to growth and considers development alongside the following: • “increasing jobs and economic growth, promoting social justice and improving quality of life • meeting the needs of a changing population, particularly one that is ageing; • encouraging people to get involved in the decisions that affect their community; • ensuring the delivery of better public services; • building schools, hospitals and transport as an integral part of development; • improving the environment, for example by making streets, parks and squares cleaner, safer and greener, and building more environmentally friendly buildings; • responding to the threats posed by climate change; and • recognising and understanding the social and economic value of historical, cultural and natural assets.” These themes are encompassed in the ten Strategic Objectives which underpin the Spatial Vision for Swindon. Strategic Objective 4 sets out how the council aspire to meet the Borough’s housing needs by the provision of well-designed sustainable housing, at sustainable locations and at a range of types and densities according to local needs and circumstances, and that promotes the effective use of land. Based on this approach, the draft Local Plan 2036 review sets out where 20,450 homes (including dwellings completed since 2018) could be built in the Borough up to 2036. In order to reach the required housing target and, following the consultation last year, a number of urban housing sites have been added to the draft Local Plan. In addition, a number of sites have been identified for future housing growth outside the Swindon urban area. In addition to the strategic sites shown in Figure 2-3, there are smaller local housing allocations of up to 300 homes each in the Swindon urban area, Wroughton and Highworth, as well as allocations of up to 42 homes in other villages. Further employment land allocations include The Carriageworks, the land north of Barnfield Close and the former Groundwell Park and Ride. The draft Local Plan identified that, at the time of writing, a total of 18,960 homes were already accounted for through consents, allocations and additional windfall assumptions.

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3. Transport changes and growth Transport networks and connectivity

Cycle network Figure 3-1 shows the cycle routes in Swindon, with the on-road routes in red and the off-road routes in green. There are areas with dense coverage of off-road cycle routes including Abbey Meads in the north of the town, and Peatmoor, Eastleaze and Bridgemead in the west. There are also cycle routes in the south east of the town. There are some significant gaps in off-road cycle provision, such as in Pinehurst, Upper Stratton and Kingsdown towards the north east and West Wichel in the Wichelstowe development area. In general, cycle provision is better in Swindon’s newer developments due to more rigorous requirements being introduced in the planning process since the 1980’s. Conversely, cycle facilities were not built into the town’s older residential areas, which have significant overlaps with the more deprived areas as shown in Figure D-4 (Appendix D). There is no cycle provision along the A419 route corridor and no designated alternative cycle routes. The walking and cycling routes from Swindon out into the surrounding villages are very limited; the existing cycle routes shown in Figure 3-1 that extend beyond the 5km radius of the rail station are mostly on fairly narrow, national speed limit roads. These roads also generally do not have a footway. As a result, cycling and walking towards Swindon from the surrounding villages is not a viable option for the majority of potential active travel users, however given the distances it could be possible. Figure 3-1 - Cycle routes in Swindon

Source: Cycle routes © OpenStreetMap contributors

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Bus network Figure 3-2 shows the bus routes that serve Swindon district based on an average Tuesday morning level of service. The width of each bus route line indicates the number of buses per hour of the most frequent service on that section of route. The areas outside Swindon borough are shaded in grey, and the radius lines show 3km, 5km and 8km distances from the rail station. Figure 3-2 - Bus network map

Sources: Basemap DataCutter; DfT,National Public Transport Data Repository (NPTDR); DfT, National Public Transport Access Nodes (NaPTAN)

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Rail network Figure 3-3 shows the railway lines and stations near to Swindon. Swindon’s main railway links are with Bristol and Bath to the west and Didcot to the east. It can be seen that rail links to the north and south are limited, with interchange generally required. Figure 3-3 - Rail network

Source: Data © OpenStreetMap contributors

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Highway network As shown in Figure 3-4, the M4 runs to the south of Swindon, with the closest junctions being 15 and 16. To the west, this provides direct motorway links to Bristol and on into Wales, and to the east Reading, Slough and onto London. The A419 is also a major road managed by Highways England and links Swindon to Cirencester in the north and the M4 in the south. The A420 provides the main highway link to Oxford to the north east and is Swindon’s only road in the Major Road Network. The A4361 links the town centre to the towns and villages to the south of Swindon including Wroughton and Avebury. Figure 3-4 - A roads and motorways

International networks Table 3-1 shows the approximate journey times between Swindon and its nearest international ports and airports.

Table 3-1 – Journey times to international airports and ports Approximate journey time by Approximate journey time by Destination road public transport Heathrow Airport 83 minutes 90 minutes Bristol Airport 75 minutes 96 minutes Southampton Airport 78 minutes 76 minutes Gatwick Airport 120 minutes 120 minutes Avonmouth, Bristol 65 minutes 73 minutes

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Approximate journey time by Approximate journey time by Destination road public transport Cardiff Docks 78 minutes 100 minutes Southampton Port 78 minutes 99 minutes Portsmouth International Port 85 minutes 158 minutes Source: Journey times taken from Google Maps Journey Planner, set to depart at midday on a typical Tuesday. The average of the lower and upper estimates has been provided.

Journey time by mode Geographical Information Systems (GIS) based isochrone analysis has been used to calculate journey times between Swindon (Regent Street, between College Street and The Parade) and key locations by car and public transport. Data has been sourced from ArcGIS online (car) and TRACC (public transport). Figure 3-5, Figure 3-6, Figure 3-7 and Figure 3-8 show 15, 30, 45 and 60 minute travel time bands for car, train and bus journeys respectively. The assumptions made are as follows: • The car journeys are assumed to be undertaken during the morning peak, that is, leaving at 8am; • Timetable data has been used for the bus and rail journeys and the quickest journey between 7am and 10am has been selected; • For buses, traffic is only taken into account if the bus timetables allow for delays; • There is an interchange penalty of 5 minutes to account for the inconvenience of changing between bus or rail services; • It is assumed that the public transport user arrives at the stop or station when the first service is due; • The maximum walk to the first stop is 800 metres; and • The maximum interchange connection is walk distance is 500 metres between stops.

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Figure 3-5 - Journey times by car from Swindon during the morning peak period (0700-1000)

Figure 3-5 shows that connectivity by car from Swindon is generally good. In particular, the journey time isochrones highlight that the M4 provides excellent east- west connectivity, enabling direct connectivity with Bristol and south Wales to the west and Newbury and Reading to the south east within one hour. In contrast, journeys north eastwards from Swindon to Oxford rely on the slower A420. Bristol is approximately 15 kilometres further from Swindon than Oxford, yet the journey there is around 10 minutes quicker. To the south, Salisbury Plain army training areas to the east of Warminster creates a barrier for car journeys.

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Figure 3-6 shows Swindon’s rail Figure 3-6 - Journey times by rail from Swindon during the morning peak period (0700-1000) connectivity; it is possible to travel from Swindon to many towns and cities, in some cases faster than by car (including Didcot and Bath). Some of the locations not included within the isochrones due to assumptions around time required for connections include journeys to the north which require interchange at Cheltenham, Bristol or Gloucester. To the east, Newbury and Basingstoke both require interchange at Reading pushing the journey time to over one hour. Similarly, travelling between Swindon and Oxford by rail requires interchange in Didcot. Journeys south often require interchange at Bath or Reading. While rail journeys that require a change may not significantly hinder journey times for long distance travel, interchange can decrease the appeal of a commuter journey. Similarly, it may disproportionately disadvantage rail users (or potential rail users) with additional mobility needs, reducing the accessibility of the transport network. The same is true for bus journeys that require interchange.

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Figure 3-7 - Journey times by bus from Swindon during the morning peak period (0700-1000)

Figure 3-7 shows that bus Swindon’s bus connectivity, with the exception of Faringdon, is best connected towards the south and west.

While the majority of Swindon’s built up area is located within the 30 minute bus travel time isochrone, only a small part of Swindon’s town centre is within

a 15 minute bus journey catchment. By contrast, by car it is possible to reach the centre of Swindon in 15 minutes from

as far out as Blunsdon and Wroughton (Figure 3-5). This poor bus connectivity may discourage potential rail users from using Swindon railway

station or encourage those who do commute by rail to make their journey to the station by car, hence compounding the issue of town centre congestion and increase demand for parking.

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Figure 3-8 - Journey times by bus from Swindon during the morning peak period (0700-1000) – magnified

Figure 3-8 shows a magnified version of Figure 3-7 to allow consideration of bus journey times in the town centre in more detail. The distance that can be travelled in 15 minutes by bus is the greatest to the south and south east of the centre point on Regent Street. This is largely due to bus routes on Victoria Road and the B4289 to the south of Queen’s Park and on Queens Drive (A4259). The severance caused by the railway line is evident in Figure 3- 8. Bus routes pass under railway lines at the locations shown by red circles: from west to east these are at Wootton Bassett Road (A3102), Rodbourney Road (B4289), Corporation Street, Transfer Bridges (A4289), and Swindon Road (B4006). The three railway crossing points closest to the town centre cause the inconsistent shape of the 15 minute isochrone to the north of the railway line.

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Journey times to other towns Connectivity assessments have also been carried out for specific locations outside of Swindon using Google Maps journey planner to build a picture of the levels of local car and public transport connectivity. The following locations have been considered: • Basingstoke • Devizes • Melksham • Trowbridge • Bath • Didcot • Newbury • Wantage • Bristol • Faringdon • Oxford • Warminster • Calne • Gloucester • Purton • Witney • Carterton • Highworth • Reading • Yate • Cheltenham • Lechlade • Royal Wootton • Chippenham • Malmesbury Bassett • Cirencester • Marlborough • Stroud

The digital vector boundary file of UK built-up areas (according to the Office of National Statistics 2011 Built-Up Areas – Methodology and Guidance1) was used to identify the cities, towns and villages around Swindon. In order to calculate journey times for the AM peak, the journeys were set to arrive by (or as close as possible to) 8:30am. The origin and destination locations were taken to be the geographical centre of the villages, towns and cities considered. Figure 3-9 displays the public transport to car journey time ratio for the locations which ranked in the top five commuting origins and destinations in Table 3-2 and Table 3-3. Journey time ratios for all of the above locations for AM and PM peak times can be found in Appendix C. A value greater than 1 represents a journey that takes longer by public transport than by car (●), a value equal to one represents equal journey times for car and public transport, and a value less than 1 represents a journey that is quicker by public transport than by car (●). Figure 3-9 shows that peak time public transport provision is strong between central Swindon and Bristol, Reading and Chippenham, which are all popular commuting destinations for Swindon’s residents. These competitive public transport journey times are a result of rail links. However, this analysis does not account for journeys from or beyond the geographical centres of each location, meaning that the time required for journeys to and from central train stations has not been accounted for. Figure 3-9 - Public transport to car journey time ratios

The locations with the most competitive bus journey times are Calne and Royal Wootton Bassett.

1 https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/articles/ref/builtupareas_userguidance.pdf

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However, unlike the competitive ratios offered by some rail public transport journeys, these journeys still take on average nearly 50% longer by bus than by car during peak times. This equates to journey times that are on average approximately 20 and 10 minutes longer by bus than by car respectively, excluding any interchange or connecting travel. Poor bus journey times are likely to be linked to a lack of bus priority or bus lane provision, meaning that buses are impeded by any congestion, on top of their need to stop-start at bus stops, account for dwell times while people pay for their journey, and buses often not taking the most direct route. As of June 2014, there were 19 stretches of bus lane, 18 bus gates and 7 bus only roads in Swindon. Figure 3-10 - Travel times between Swindon and Figure 3-11 - Travel times between Swindon and Royal Wootton Bassett Calne

Oxford does not appear in either commuting origin or destination top five (see section 3.2). However, over 1,000 commuters travelled between Swindon and Oxford each day (2011 Census, see Appendix B) so it is worth considering the current connectivity. Car journey times north east to Oxford rely on the A420 which is a slow route when compared with routes to Bristol or Reading using the M4. Because of this, and despite the need to interchange at Didcot if travelling by train, rail provides a slightly quicker journey time and is a competitive alternative to the private car in terms of travel time. Figure 3-12 - Travel times between Swindon and Oxford

Highworth ranks as the most common resident location for those commuting into Swindon and second most popular out-commuting destination for Swindon’s residents (see section 3.2). As shown in Figure 3-13, travel times are on average 20 minutes slower by bus than by car between Swindon and Highworth. This is due to the bus routing to stop at Greenbridge Retail and Leisure Park and South Marston Industrial Estate, and the need to stop-start at approximately 30 further bus stops. There is limited bus priority on the route between Swindon and Highworth, therefore buses are also likely to be delayed by peak time traffic. The number 7 bus, however, provides a regular service between Swindon and Highworth, running every ten minutes in each direction. There are also drawbacks to travelling by car; according to Google Maps, car journeys at peak times can vary from 16 to 40 minutes due to slow-moving traffic in locations such as Victoria Road, Groundwell Road, Drove Road, Queens Drive (A4312), Highworth Road and Swindon Street. This poor car journey time reliability and slow bus route are the only options for the 3,600 (2011 census) commuters travelling between Swindon town and Highworth. Figure 3-13 Public transport and car travel times between Swindon and Highworth

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Cirencester and Newbury are both popular commuting destinations for Swindon residents, both attracting approximately 3% of Swindon’s out-commuting residents and ranking 5th and 6th respectively as out-commuting destinations (see section 3.2). As shown in Figure 3-14 and Figure 3-15, they both have an average public transport journey time of approximately 70 minutes, but the average car journey times are 47 and 35 minutes for Newbury and Cirencester respectively. The current peak time bus services are not offering a competitive alternative to the private car for those commuting between Swindon and Cirencester. This is because car journeys benefit from use of the A419, whereas the bus route diverts off onto minor roads in order to stop in Siddington, South Cerney and Cricklade. The alternative option is to travel by train between Swindon and Kemble and bus between Kemble and Cirencester which enables a quicker journey time. However, this interchange is only possible a maximum of once every hour, so it may not always be a viable commuting option. For Newbury, there is no direct train to Swindon so there is a requirement to interchange in Reading. Figure 3-14 - Public transport and car travel Figure 3-15 - Public transport and car travel times between Swindon and Newbury times between Swindon and Cirencester

Employment and commuting

Workplace of employed resident population According to the 2011 census, 64% of people living within the town of Swindon also listed the town as their place of employment, while the other 36% commuted to other areas. Table 3-2 shows the top five most popular places that Swindon’s residents commute to. The percentages shown exclude any locations within Swindon town. For further details, see Appendix B. Royal Wootton Bassett is the top commuting destination among Swindon’s residents which, as discussed above, is likely to be mainly due to its proximity to Swindon. Reading and Bristol are both cities which are home to many major employers. This, alongside their strong rail connections with Swindon, is likely to explain their popularity among Swindon town’s residents.

Table 3-2 – Top five most common out-commuting destinations for Swindon residents Daily number of commuters Percentage of all commuters Commuting destination from Swindon from Swindon Royal Wootton Bassett 2,322 7% Reading 1,035 3% Bristol 991 3% Cirencester 930 3% Highworth 942 3% Source: 2011 Census, WU01UK - Location of usual residence and place of work by sex

The digital vector boundary file of UK built-up areas (according to the Office of National Statistics 2011 Built-Up Areas – Methodology and Guidance2) was used to identify the cities, towns and villages around Swindon. Using GIS, these areas were linked with the overlapping 2011 Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs) so that the 2011 LSOA census data regarding commuting numbers to and from Swindon could be assigned to them.

2 https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/articles/ref/builtupareas_userguidance.pdf

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Connectivity with London According to the 2011 census, approximately 1,300 residents of Swindon work in London. Note that this is not included in Table 3-2 as London is split into 33 smaller boroughs. The London boroughs of Westminster, Hillingdon (which includes Heathrow Airport) and City of London attract the highest number of Swindon commuters at 271, 140 and 119 respectively. Of Swindon’s commuters to the Westminster and City of London wards, 62% and 64% respectively took the train and 25% and 18% respectively travelled by car according to the 2011 census. Of those travelling to Hillingdon, only 1% took the train and as many as 90% chose to travel by car. This is likely to be because, although the 110km car journey from Swindon to Hillingdon suffers from poor journey time reliability during peak times due to congestion, the journey by public transport requires interchange at both Reading (rail) and West Drayton (bus), making it much less attractive. Since 2011, the rail line between Swindon and London has seen a number of improvements, including electrification which was completed in 2018, and it now takes just under an hour to make the journey into Paddington. It is likely, therefore, that a greater number of commuters will now take the train from Swindon to London. Furthermore, although the Crossrail project does not extend as far west as Swindon, Swindon’s strong transport links with Reading are likely to enable Swindon’s residents and businesses to benefit from the new Elizabeth line. Transport for London (TfL) has announced that a TfL Rail operated stopping service between Reading and London Paddington started running in December 2019 as part of the delivery of the Elizabeth Line. While these services are slower than the existing fast trains, the Crossrail services are running every 15 minutes during peak times, providing more frequent access to stations such as Twyford, Maidenhead and Slough as well as Paddington. The delivery of the central part of the Elizabeth line is currently expected to be complete in 2021 with services planned to commence in 2022, providing Reading with a direct link to other central London stations such as Tottenham Court Road and Liverpool Street, and as far as Shenfield and Abbey Wood to the east.

Residence of Swindon’s in-commuters Of all the people who worked in Swindon town in 2011, 63% were also residents of Swindon town. Table 3-3 shows the top-five resident locations which made up the majority of the remaining 37%. It can be seen that Royal Wootton Bassett and Highworth were a key source of Swindon’s in-commuters, followed by Bristol, Chippenham and Calne. Royal Wootton Bassett and Highworth are both under 12km by road from central Swindon.

Table 3-3 – Top five resident locations of those who work in Swindon Daily number of commuters to Percentage of all commuters to Resident location Swindon Swindon Royal Wootton Bassett 2,065 6% Highworth 1,587 5% Bristol 1,337 4% Chippenham 1,191 4% Calne 834 2% Source: 2011 Census, WU01UK - Location of usual residence and place of work by sex

Net commuting population In total, according to the 2011 Census, approximately 92,100 people worked in Swindon borough. Of these, 68,200 people were also resident in Swindon, and the other 23,900 workers travelled in for work from other resident locations. Of the 92,700 residents of the borough, 24,500 people commuted to working locations outside of Swindon.

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Figure 3-16 - Commuting patterns in Swindon

Source: 2011 Census, WU01UK - Location of usual residence and place of work by sex

Commuting distance and modal share According to the 2011 Census (QS701EW - Method of travel to work), overall, 45% of Swindon’s resident population commuted by driving a car or van. Excluding those who are not in employment, this equates to 64% of Swindon’s working population driving to work; this is a higher proportion than for commuters in the South West region (62%) and for England (57%). In the South West region, 6% of the employed population travel to work via public transport; the public transport modal share among Swindon’s working residents is higher at 10% (9% bus and 1% train), but not as high as the overall modal share for England of 17%. In Swindon, 14% of workers commuted by walking and cycling and 4% worked mainly from home. Method of travel to work in Swindon, the South West region and England is shown in Table 5-2 and discussed further in Section 5.3. Figure 3-17 shows that the most common commuting distance travelled by Swindon’s residents was between 2 and 5 kilometres, of which 64% drove to work. This was also the distance bracket with highest modal share for public transport and bicycle use, whereas walking was most popular for commuting journeys on less than 2km. Whilst distance is naturally a barrier to active travel, it can be seen that the vast majority of Swindon’s residents turn to their cars rather than public transport for longer distance commuting journeys. Figure 3-17 - Commuting distance and modal share (residents)

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Source: DC7701EWla - Method of travel to work (2001 specification) by distance travelled to work, 2011 Census

Figure 3-18 shows the commuting distance and method of travel to work for those who work in Swindon, regardless of their resident location. The pattern is very similar to Figure 3-17; it should be noted that those who travel less than 5km to work are likely to appear in both datasets as the majority will both live and work within Swindon borough. Those who commute more than 5km into Swindon are, again, much more likely to rely on driving than public transport; in particular, in the 10-20km distance bracket, as many as 87% of in-commuters travel by car. Figure 3-18 - Commuting distance and modal share (workplace)

Source: WP7701EW - Method of travel to work (2001 specification) by distance travelled to work (Workplace population), 2011 Census

A greater proportion of commuters travelled 5km-10km to Swindon (29%) when compared to the averages for the South West region (15%) and England as a whole (17%). When considering overall modal share, 64% of commuters to Swindon drive to work and only 10% take public transport. This is broadly similar to the South West region (59% and 60%), whereas in England 54% drive to work and 16% take public transport. Transport demand

Traffic levels in Swindon The Department for Transport (DfT) measures traffic in the UK in two main ways: the number of vehicle kilometres travelled (one vehicle multiplied by one kilometre/mile travelled) and the annual average daily traffic flow. Figure 3-19 shows the annual distance (measured in vehicle kilometres) travelled in Swindon from 2000 to 2019. It can be seen that the distance travelled has seen a fairly consistent year on year increase, with a more notable increase in traffic between 2013 and 2014. The overall increase in car and taxi traffic since 2000 is 32%, which is slightly below the general traffic increase of 34%. This growth rate in distance travelled is significantly higher than the total for the South West: the growth in total vehicle kilometres since 2000 across the region is 25%, and 22% for cars and taxis. The growth since 2000 is even lower for the whole of England at only 19% and 15% for all motor vehicles and cars and taxis respectively.

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Figure 3-19 - Vehicle kilometres travelled in Swindon

Source: Department for Transport, Road Traffic Surveys 2000 to 2019

Annual Average Daily Flow (AADF) is measured by the DfT using data from 67 different count sites in Swindon; Figure 3-20 shows their locations and the vehicle counts at each site in 2019. Figure 3-20 - DfT count sites and 2019 counts

The change in AADF between 2000 and 2019 is shown in Figure 3-21. There have been traffic increases in AADF for cars and taxis (34% increase) and light goods vehicles (LGVs) (82% increase). There have also been relatively small decreases since 2000 in two-wheeler (10% decrease), bus and coach (5% decrease) and heavy goods vehicle (HGV) (7% decrease) traffic. The sharper increase in car and taxi vehicle kilometres seen between 2013 and 2014 (Figure 3-19) is also present in the AADF data shown in Figure 3-21. However, the large car and taxi

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traffic volume increase seen between 2007 and 2008 and subsequent decrease by 2010 is not evident in the vehicle kilometres data; there is not sufficient evidence to identify a cause. The AADF modal split for 2019 is shown in Figure 3-22. The vast majority (81%) of movement is from cars and taxis. Figure 3-21 - Annual average daily flow (AADF) by mode

Source: Department for Transport, Road Traffic Surveys 2000 to 2019

Figure 3-22 - AADF modal split (2019)

Source: Department for Transport, Road Traffic Surveys 2019

Heavy goods vehicles and freight As shown in Figure 3-21, the volume of heavy goods traffic on Swindon’s roads decreased by 10% between 2000 and 2019. The proportion of HGVs out of the total motor vehicle traffic decreased from 7% in 2000 to 5% in 2019.

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A similar trend is seen in both the South West region and Great Britain as a whole, with decreases in HGV modal share at count sites from 6% to 4% and 6% to 5% respectively. However, this rate is not constant across the different local count sites in Swindon; count locations on the M4, A419, A420 and the A361 have the highest numbers of HGVs as a proportion of the total traffic volumes with HGV modal shares of 8% or more. The minor roads surveyed all had 4% or lower HGV modal share, with 27 out of 33 count sites at 1% or lower HGV modal shares. According to the DfT 2019 Annual Road Traffic Estimates, lorry traffic in Great Britain increased on motorways in 2019, was broadly stable on rural roads and decreased on all other road types; Motorways carry 46% of all national lorry traffic. Between 1994 and 2019, heavier lorries (weighing >33 tonnes) moved an increasing proportion of goods by road (77% in 2019 compared to 60% in 1994). As a result, road freight in lorries is now more concentrated in heavier lorries than in the past, and fewer vehicle miles are being driven to transport the same weight of goods.

Car availability According to the 2011 census, the average household in Swindon borough had 1.21 cars or vans available (assuming that all households in the “4 or more cars or vans in household” category had access to exactly four cars). This was slightly higher than the national average of 1.16. Figure 3-23 shows the car or van ownership of households within Swindon borough. It can be seen that almost half of Swindon’s households had access to one car or van and close to one quarter had either no car access or access to two cars. This is broadly in line with the regional and national averages. Table 3-4 shows that the South West region has a higher level of car ownership than the average for England & Wales, which is likely to be linked to the largely rural nature of the region. Car availability is slightly lower in Swindon than for the South West region. Figure 3-23 - Car or van availability

Source: KS404EW - Car or van availability, 2011 Census

Table 3-4 - Car or van availability Swindon South West England & Wales Average number of cars or vans per household 1.21 1.30 1.16

No cars or vans in household 22% 19% 26%

1 car or van in household 44% 44% 42% 2 cars or vans in household 27% 28% 25%

3 or more cars or vans in household 7% 9% 7%

Source: KS404EW - Car or van availability, 2011 Census

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Long-stay parking According to data from April 2019, there are 24 council owned fee-paying public car parks (including on-street parking locations) in the borough as shown in Table 3-5. Across these car parks, there are a total of 2,630 short stay and 2,444 long stay car parking spaces, including blue badge, parent and child, electric vehicle charging, service and permit only spaces. In addition, the council also owns two country park car parks. Furthermore, Swindon’s Town Centre Parking Strategy 2017 identifies a number of private car parks which provide an estimate of 1,600 spaces.

Table 3-5 – Number of Council-owned fee paying public car parking spaces in Swindon Car park name Long stay Short stay Car park name Long stay Short stay spaces spaces spaces spaces Bath Road 0 28 The Parade Multi-Storey 0 112

Bristol Street 364 0 Princes Street 0 112

Britannia Place 0 140 Prospect Place 0 79

Brunel North Multi-Storey 0 754 The Planks 0 63

Brunel West Multi-Storey 235 289 Queen Street 0 9

Catherine Street 0 7 Regent Close 0 9

Commercial Road 0 17 Sandford Street 0 5

County Ground 256 0 Spring Gardens Multi- 662 0 Storey Cheltenham Street 85 0 Whalebridge 842 0 Fleming Way Multi-Storey 0 628 Wood Street 0 15 Granville Street 0 275 Wyvern 0 52 Harding Street 0 15 Total 2,444 2,630 Market Square 0 21

The Parade Car Park will close in March 2021. The Town Centre Parking Strategy 2017 notes that actual occupancy data was only available for the council’s multi-storey car parks and so the actual occupancy of surface car parks has been estimated based on tickets purchased. The uplift between actual occupancy and tickets purchased within the multi-storey car parks was used as a proxy to estimate more accurate occupancy for surface car parks. The adjusted data showed that the peak time for parking (outside of the Christmas period) within the town centre was between 12:00 and 14:00, where the occupancy reached approximately 47%. However, the average occupancy between 09:00 and 17:00 is 39%. The adjusted estimates suggested that a number of car parks reach full capacity between 09:00 and 17:00. Figure 3-24 shows the forecast parking demand in public car parks based on growth scenarios, taken from the Town Centre Parking Strategy. The future demand estimates based on 2036 projections have been split proportionally from 2016/17 to 2030/36. The Town Centre Parking Strategy does not identify any significant future deficit in the capacity of the town centre to respond to the expected demand growth.

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Figure 3-24 - Historical and future car park demand based on growth scenarios

Public transport patronage Figure 3-25 shows that passenger bus journeys in Swindon saw a large decrease between 2010/11 and 2013/14. This is broadly in line with the decrease in bus passenger journeys seen in England. However, since 2014 there has been a relatively slow increase in the number of bus journeys taken in Swindon, with small drops between 2015/16-2016/17 and 2018/19-2019/20. The total number of bus journeys in Swindon (11.9 million) remains over three times greater than the number of rail journeys to and from Swindon station (3.7 million). As shown in Figure 3-26, there has been a 64% increase in rail journeys to and from Swindon since 2004/5, although growth appears to have been slowing down since 2016/17. Table 3-6 shows the proportion of Swindon’s residents and workers who travel to work via public transport compared to private car. The highest level of bus use is among Swindon’s residents who also work within the borough, and this group also has the lowest level of car use. For those living in Swindon and commuting to another location outside the borough, approximately equal proportions travel by train and bus, whereas in- commuters are more likely to travel by train than bus.

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Figure 3-25 - Passenger journeys on local bus services in Swindon, the South West region and England 100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

busservices per resident

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2014/15

Average Average annual passenger journeys on local Swindon South West England

Source: DfT Passenger journeys on local bus services by local authority from 2009/10 (BUS0109a); ONS mid-year population estimates

Figure 3-26 - Number of rail passenger entries and exits at Swindon rail station

Source: ORR; Table 1415(A) - Time series of passenger entries and exits by station

Table 3-6 - Commuting by public transport Driver or passenger in Train Bus car, van or motorbike Swindon’s internal commuters 0% 11% 68% Swindon’s out-commuters 5% 5% 85% Swindon’s in-commuters 7% 4% 86%

Source: 2011 Census, WU03UK - Location of usual residence and place of work by method of travel to work

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Congestion

Delays on key routes Figure 3-27 shows the average speed on locally managed ‘A’ roads in Swindon, the South West region and England as a whole. It can be seen that the average ‘A’ road speed in Swindon is significantly slower (approximately 2.5 to 3mph slower) than the average for the South West region but is around 1 mph faster than the national average. Between 2015 and 2018, the general trend was for worsening average speeds in all three geographical areas, with a slight improvement in 2017. Note that due to changes in the DfT’s method of traffic flow weighting in 2017, a step change has been introduced to the 2019 estimates of average speed. Therefore, what may look like an improvement between 2018 and 2019 may not be fully representative of the actual situation. Figure 3-27 - Average speed on local 'A' roads3 (mph) Changes in the DfT’s method of traffic flow weighting – see note above.

Source: DfT Travel Time Data; Table CGN0501b; Average speed on local 'A' roads by local authority in England

Figure 3-28 shows the average delay experienced by those travelling on locally managed ‘A’ roads in Swindon, the South West region and England. Delay is calculated by subtracting derived ‘free flow’ travel times from observed travel times for individual road sections. Free flow travel times are calculated using the 85th percentile speed observation for each individual road sections. These are 'capped' at national speed limits. This shows a similar situation to the average speeds; all three geographical areas follow a similar pattern of worsening delays between 2015 and 2018. Swindon’s road users experience greater delays than average for the South West region, but less delays than the national average. Note that the same data caveats apply to the delay data as for the speed data, and the supposed improvement seen in 2019 is likely to be due to updated data processing methodology rather than a real improvement in traffic.

3 The measure weights speed observations from a sample of vehicles by associated traffic flows so that it is representative of traffic volumes on the roads in different locations and at different times of day. Travel time observations used to calculate this measure are derived from cars and light vans travel time data only. 3. All day average speed calculated across the complete 24 hourly period and includes all days (weekdays, weekends, bank holidays etc.).

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Figure 3-28 - Average delay on local 'A' roads (seconds per vehicle per mile, spvpm)

Changes in the DfT’s method of traffic flow weighting – see note above.

Source: DfT Travel Time Data; Table CGN0502b; Average delay on locally managed 'A' roads by local authority in England

Current congestion hotspots Figure 3-29 and Figure 3-30 represent the current congestion situation in the AM and PM peak hours respectively and have been produced using traffic data from the existing Swindon Transport Model. They highlight ‘congestion hotspots’ which have been defined as junctions where volume/capacity exceeds 85%; this is the design value above which queues and delays build up and traffic becomes less stable. Average traffic speeds from TrafficMaster data have also been included in this analysis which have helped to identify areas where average speeds are less than 50% of their free flow speed in the peak hour. In addition, as shown in Table 5-3, the 2020 National Highways and Transport Network (NHT) survey found that the satisfaction level among Swindon’s residents regarding traffic levels and congestion was 44%, which is a 3% increase since 2019 but remains 2% below the average for participating local authorities. As part of the New Eastern Villages pre-construction study (January 2021), traffic counts were carried out in 2019 in the east of Swindon, particularly on or near to the A419. The hotspots on the A419 and A420 identified corresponded with the findings from the traffic model. On an average weekday over the course of a 24-hour period, the A419 experiences traffic flows over 30,000 vehicles and the A420 over 11,000.

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Figure 3-29 - 2018 congestion in the AM peak hour (0800-0900)

Figure 3-30 - 2018 congestion in the PM peak hour (1700-1800)

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Planned transport schemes The 2036 Swindon Transport Model includes all the transport schemes listed in Table 3-7. These schemes are mapped in Figure 4-29, alongside other public transport and active mode schemes and the locations of development sites. The phasing of these schemes can be seen in Figure 3-32.

Table 3-7 - Transport schemes included in Swindon Transport Model (2036) Scheme name White Hart junction Gablecross junction Wichelstowe southern access Regent Circus improvements Southern Connector Road Nythe and Oxford Road junction Commonhead junction Coate Water junction M4 junctions 15 and 16 Mannington junction Greenbridge junction Many of the highway schemes progressed since 2011 are planned in support of strategic development locations, such as New Eastern Villages, as part of an integrated land use plan. This is evidenced by the highway scheme’s proximities to planned developments shown in Figure 3-31. Figure 3-31 - Transport schemes and developments

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Figure 3-32 - Scheme timeline

Great Stall Bridge – now to be implemented later in NEV build-out, beyond 2027.

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Forecast situation Analysis of Swindon Transport Model outputs for the AM and PM peak hours of 2036 show that congestion remains, particularly at key junctions to the east, along the A419 and in the centre of Swindon (along Great Western Way). This is the result of the housing growth also being reflected in the model; 8,270 new dwellings to 2036. It is worth noting that while congestion levels are forecast to remain in 2036, with approximately seven key junctions being shown as having over 85% vehicle / capacity, the congestion levels will be lower than those that would be present without the implementation of the schemes outlined previously. This is evidenced in many of the business cases for the proposed schemes. The highway infrastructure associated with the North Swindon quality bus corridor scheme (Moonrakers) was not included in the model used for the analysis above. This scheme is expected to provide benefits to car users as well as bus journey times and reliability for services to Penhill, St Andrew’s Ridge and Tadpole Garden Village. This highlights the positive benefit that non-car focused schemes can provide across modes. Note that maps showing the 2036 scenario are not included in this report as the suitability of the model is currently under review, along with housing allocations within the Local Plan. Further analysis will be required at a later date once the model has been updated.

Bus punctuality The DfT collects data on bus reliability each year on a Local Authority level. The two measures of this are average excess waiting time for frequent services and percentage of non-frequent bus services running on time. Only the latter is available for Swindon; the DfT’s data on frequent services is only available for 25 out of 88 local authorities, not including Swindon. Non-frequent services refer to those intended to arrive less than five times an hour and/or a waiting time of more than 15 minutes. The percentage of non-frequent bus services running on time is presented in Figure 3-33 for Swindon, the South West region and for England. This shows that non-frequent bus services tend to be more reliable in Swindon than the average for both the region and nation, particularly in 2008/09 to 2010/11. However, bus reliability appears to have seen an overall decrease in the following years from a peak in 2010/11 of 99% to a low point in 2017/18 of 83% (which was the same as the average for England). This may be due to increased road traffic in Swindon. A small increase in punctuality was seen between 2017/18 to 2018/19 to 87%. In contrast, the reliability statics for both the South West and for England show little change in the percentage of bus services running on time between 2008/09 and 2018/19, both varying between approximately 79% and 83%. Figure 3-33 - Percentage of non-frequent bus services running on time

Source: DfT bus statistics; Non-frequent bus services running on time by local authority

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Reducing carbon dioxide emissions

Figure 3-34 shows Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions from all roads in Swindon, the South West and England as a whole. The data is presented as a percentage of the emissions in 2005 to enable comparison. The pattern is broadly similar across the three geographical areas, but it can be seen that Swindon’s emissions saw a smaller reduction up to 2013 followed by a sharper increase up to 2016. While there was a significant decrease in CO2 emissions between 2016 and 2018, it is clear that Swindon remains behind the region and the country.

Figure 3-34 - Carbon dioxide emissions from all Figure 3-35 – Total energy-related carbon roads (as a percentage of the 2005 figure) dioxide emissions in 2018

Source: Local Authority territorial CO2 emissions estimates 2005-2018 (kt CO2)

In 2018, transport was the greatest contributor to CO2 emissions (Figure 3-35). Transport in Swindon and the South West contributes a greater proportion of total CO2 emissions that the average for England.

Figure 3-36 provides further information highlighting the energy-related total CO2 emissions for all three areas; while the total CO2 emissions from road traffic was at a lower level in 2018 than in 2005 locally, regionally and nationally, it can be seen that transport emissions are not reducing at the same rate as other contributors. Since 2014, transport has consistently been the greatest energy-related contributor to CO2 emissions in the South West and in Swindon.

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Figure 3-36 - Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions for England, the South West and Swindon

Source: Local Authority territorial CO2 emissions estimates 2005-2018 (kt CO2)

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4. Safety and access Road safety The analysis of DfT accident statistics for 2013 to 2019 presented against the total traffic for Swindon (all vehicles) (Figure 4-1) shows that the total number of reported accidents has no clear trend against total traffic. Road safety appeared to be worsening with accidents increasing by approximately 30% between 2013 and 2016 (from 346 to 441) after which a marked improvement was observed in 2017, when the number of reported accidents reduced to 342. An increase to 358 accidents was reported in 2018 on Swindon’s local road network, dropping slightly to 335 in 2019, despite the increasing road traffic. Figure 4-1 - Total number of accidents and traffic, Swindon

Source: DfT annual traffic statistics by Local Authority; DfT Road Safety statistics by Local Authority (STATS19)

Swindon’s figures have been compared against the Local Authority areas of Milton Keynes, Peterborough, Telford and Wrekin and Warrington in Figure 4-2. This comparison shows that whilst Swindon’s overall accident rates are generally lower than three of the four comparable authorities until 2018, the gap between them appears to be closing, with a reduction in collisions more evident in the other authority areas. Figure 4-3 shows the rate of accidents per kilometre of Local Authority road. This shows that Swindon’s accident rate as of 2018 was higher than both that of Telford and Wrekin and Milton Keynes. It also reiterates the lack of obvious trend in accident rates in Swindon, compared to Milton Keynes and Warrington which are exhibiting downwards trends. Note that motorways have been excluded from this analysis, but it was not possible to remove all Highways England A roads (see Appendix A).

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Figure 4-2 - Total number of accidents, Figure 4-3 - Accident rate per km of road comparison

Sources: DfT table RDL0202a – total length excluding motorways; DfT Road Safety statistics by Local Authority (STATS19)

The following shows the number and percentage of the total accidents that occurred in each of the boroughs that were classed as fatal or serious in severity (killed or seriously injured, KSI) in 2019: • Swindon: 60, 17% • Milton Keynes: 46, 13% • Peterborough: 74, 19% • Telford and Wrekin: 39, 25% • Warrington: 45, 14%

Road safety for children Figure 4-4 shows the number of children killed or seriously injured (KSI) in road traffic accidents in Swindon borough. This includes all road types, including those managed by Highways England. There has been an overall decrease since 2000, but child KSIs increased in both 2018 and 2019. Of the 11 child KSIs in 2019, 4 of the 11 children were pedestrians, 1 a cyclist, 1 on a motorcycle and the remaining 4 in cars. Figure 4-4 - Number of under-18s killed or seriously injured in road accidents

Source: DfT Road Safety statistics, reported road casualties in Great Britain by age and Local Authority Asset management Transport infrastructure in Swindon is the biggest capital asset that the council own. It is valued at over a billion pounds and is vital to the town’s economic and social prosperity. Swindon Borough Council’s Highway Asset

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Management policy (2016 to 2020) was developed in line with the council’s current Vision for Swindon (2030) and hence reflects and clearly states links to the four priority areas of the vision as shown in Table 4-1.

Table 4-1 – Highway Asset Management policy links to council priorities Council priorities (to 2030) Swindon Borough Council HIAM Policy statement Improve infrastructure and By adopting a long-term approach to asset management, we will housing to support a growing, increase the resilience of the network; promote consistent journey times low-carbon economy. and utilise sustainable solutions including low and zero carbon energy technology to reduce waste; and reduce the environmental impact and whole life costs. Offer education opportunities that Our long-term approach to asset management, partnership working, lead to the right skills and the development and maintenance will promote sustainable recruitment right jobs in the right places. practices and enable skilled resources to be employed in the right place at the right time. Ensure clean and safe streets We will adopt a risk-based approach to asset management and will and improve our public spaces regularly inspect and maintain highway infrastructure assets to keep our and local culture. highway network safe and working and reduce accidents, crime, the fear of crime and anti-social behaviour. We will ensure that plans for new and improved highway infrastructure include sustainable solutions which protect local ecology, are sensitively integrated within local streetscapes, preserve or enhance the character of the town’s heritage and promote access to the natural environment.

Help people to help themselves We will regularly engage with the communities we serve by surveying while always protecting our most public opinion to ensure that our strategy and supporting commissioning vulnerable children and adults. and financial and delivery plans work effectively as a whole, and that their combined effect meets agreed levels of service. Source: Swindon Borough Council Highway Asset Management Policy

Each year, the council estimates the value of their highway assets using a toolkit developed by the Chartered Institute of Public Finance Accountants. This value is included in the overall council Whole of Government Accounts submission; although this submission was suspended for 2019-20 due to COVID-19, the council completed the toolkit to keep their data updated. Table 4-2 provides a summary of asset quantity, gross replacement value, lifespan, and accumulated depreciation according to the toolkit’s 2019-20 update. Up-to-date values were not available for datapoints marked with an asterisk; the figures included are taken from the 2015-2020 Swindon Borough Council Highway Asset Management Strategy Appendix 1.

Table 4-2 – Swindon Borough Council highway asset information Average lifespan Gross Accumulated Quantity (years) (if Asset group Unit replacement depreciation (approx.) maintained as value (000's) (000's) planned) Carriageways (including kerbs and 842 km £1,078,233 30-40 £104,076 gullies / drainage) Footways and cycle 1,202 km £216,205 40-80 £109,461 tracks

Public footpaths; bridleways; restricted 430* km Unknown* Varies* Unknown* byways; byways open to all traffic

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Average lifespan Gross Accumulated Quantity (years) (if Asset group Unit replacement depreciation (approx.) maintained as value (000's) (000's) planned) Highway Structures (including bridges, culverts, retaining 350* number £112,894 120* £48,192 walls and embankments) Off Highway Transport Assets (including structures on 150+* number £100,652* Varies* £21,037* corporately owned land) Illuminated signs and 3,240 number £1,799 15-25 £1,762 bollards Lighting columns 26,045 number £27,868 15-40 £26,108 Traffic management & 606 number £19,875 10-15 £14,604 control equipment Street furniture 33,177 number £6,189 10-40 £4,414 Total £1,563,715 £329,654

Swindon Borough Council Asset Management Valuation Toolkit 2019-20 *Values taken from 2015-2020 Highway Asset Management Strategy The 842km of carriageways, including gullies and drainage, are the most valuable highway asset owned by the council. Swindon Borough Council produced a Gully Management Plan to link Swindon’s vision for 2030 to how operations are planned and managed on the ground. The highway network in Swindon has developed over many centuries and, as such, few construction records are available which record the type or condition of many drainage or other sub-surface assets. To ensure that any new regime will be sustainable, a specialist contractor has been commissioned to clean and digitally record the quantity, characteristics and spatial position of all highway gullies cleaned since 2015. The base data recorded for each gully on the inventory now includes: • A unique gully asset reference • Gully type, dimensions and condition • Location coordinates (via GPS) • The percentage of silt found in the gully before the most recent cleanse • Defects (if any present) The resultant electronic gully records will now continue to be updated in real time during cyclical and reactive cleaning activities using a mobile device, so that the register remains current and the risk based approach may be refined over time as more data becomes available.

A risk assessment has been carried out to determine the potential impact if drainage assets are not designed and maintained to an adequate standard. The risk assessment considers safety, environmental and socio- economic risks and includes a number of control measures which may be adopted to bring the target risk for each variable down to an acceptable level.

After scoring the risk present at each gully location, the gullies have been grouped into risk categories and assigned an appropriate cleansing frequency. This has been an iterative process with regular review and refinement of risk categorisation and cleansing frequencies carried out as required. The council measures asset management performance using the Performance Management Framework via 15 key performance indicators; effective management of drainage assets will contribute to the achievement of many of these KPIs

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and, in addition, 45 further performance indicators have been identified and are measured by the drainage asset engineer each month.

The total volume of 15,993 annual gully cleans advocated by this risk-based approach is considered sustainable using the current level of resources and realistically balances risk against the available revenue budget. This Gully Management Plan will be reviewed in consultation with the Cabinet Member when more data becomes available or at the latest during 2023 for adoption in 2024.

Access to services

Figure 4-5 shows the proportion of users within 15 (lightest colour), 30, 45 and 60 (darkest colour) minutes’ journey on foot of by public transport.

While only 33% of Swindon’s population aged between 16 and 19 can walk or take public transport to further education within 15 minutes, 89% can do so within 30 minutes. All households within Swindon borough can access a GP within a 45 minute walk or public transport trip, whereas only 60% are within 45 minutes of a hospital. Of Swindon’s 16 to 74 year olds, 93% and 99% are respectively within a 15 and 30 minute walk or public transport journey of at least a small employment centre (at least 100 jobs). When considering large employment centres (at least 5,000 jobs), this drops to 11% and 65% of Swindon’s working age population respectively.

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Figure 4-5 – Percentage of the population with access to services via walking and public transport Access to further education Key Percentage of the population with access to services:

Access to GP Access to hospital

Access to employment centre (>100 jobs) Access to employment centre (>5,000 jobs)

Source: DfT Statistics- Travel time, destination and origin indicators for key services by mode of travel and Local Authority, England, 2017

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Figure 4-6 shows the proportion of households that had no access to a car or van in Swindon borough according to the 2011 Census. As shown in Figure 3-23, just under one quarter of Swindon’s households have no access to a car or van, and almost half of Swindon’s households access to one car or van. There are large pockets of particularly low car ownership, for example in the town centre, Walcot, Penhill and Eldene. Figure 4-6 - Proportion of households with no access to a car or van

Source: 2011 Census; Car or van availability (KS404UK)

Figure 4-7 and Figure 4-8 show the levels of deprivation in Swindon borough relating to Barriers to Housing and Services. This domain measures the physical and financial accessibility of housing and local services. The indicators fall into two: ‘geographical barriers’, which relate to the physical proximity of local services, and ‘wider barriers’ which includes issues relating to access to housing such as affordability. In 2015, just 5 of Swindon’s 132 LSOAs were ranked within the top 20% most deprived in England relating to Barriers to Housing and Services whereas in 2019 this increased to 11. Similarly, in 2015 33 of Swindon’s LSOAs fell in the top 50% most deprived in England in this domain; this figure increased to 54 in 2019.

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Figure 4-7 - Barriers to Housing and Services 2015

Figure 4-8 - Barriers to Housing and Services 2019

Source: Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government; English Indices of Deprivation 2015 & 2019

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5. Health and quality of life Number of people aged 65+ Swindon has an ageing population. Council projections indicate that over half of the estimated population growth between 2018 and 2038 will be in the 65+ age group (27,700 people). Table 5-1 shows the projected population change by age group for 2018 to 2036 for the Swindon Borough Council area. Increases are driven by people living longer and more people coming to live in Swindon than leaving4.

Table 5-1 - Projection by age group5 2018 2036 Total population 224,259 264,316 50,767 56,009 Under 18 23% 21% 132,075 140,816 18 – 59/64* 59% 53% 41,417 67,491 60/65* + 18% 26% *The age groups for this dataset are bounded at 59/60 for females and 64/65 for males. Source: Swindon Borough Council and Swindon Clinical Commissioning Group policy-led population projections 2018 Index of Multiple Deprivation: Health The Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) Health Deprivation and Disability domain measures the risk of premature death and the impairment of quality of life through poor physical or mental health. Figure 5-1 shows that several areas of Swindon fall within the most deprived deciles for England in terms of health. Compared to 2015, Figure 5-2 displays that considerably more parts of Swindon are classed amongst the 10% most deprived neighbourhoods in the country in 2019, including LSOAs within the Penhill and Upper Stratton and Gorse Hill and Pinehurst wards. It can be seen that some of the more rural areas that are moderately deprived in terms of health and disability correlate with the population of older adults as shown in Appendix D.

4 Population - Swindon JSNA 5 SBC_2016_Policy-led_Projections_Report_revised_Jul19.pdf (swindonjsna.co.uk)

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Figure 5-1 - Health Deprivation and Disability domain 2015

Figure 5-2 - Health Deprivation and Disability domain 2019

Source: Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government; English Indices of Deprivation 2015 & 2019

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Physical activity According to Swindon’s Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA), poor health is a significant issue in Swindon borough. Figure 5-3 shows that in 2017/18, 34.3% and 23.1% of children in year 6 and reception respectively were considered obese or overweight in Swindon. These rates are higher than those for the South West of England in general. Figure 5-3 - Excess weight in children in reception year and year 6

Source: Healthy weight, healthy eating & physical activity - Swindon JSNA

Swindon’s older population are also at risk of being overweight; the JSNA identified that while over 60% of adults under the age of 65 are physically active, this percentage decreases dramatically to 38.5% when considering the 75-84 age bracket and 17.7% for the over 85’s.

Method of travel A 2020 study for the Obesity Review journal concluded that greater access to segregated, well maintained bicycle lanes is significantly associated with increased physical activity among children and adolescents6. Therefore, the provision of safe, off-road walking and cycling facilities close to residential areas is essential in enabling children to embed healthy habits into their daily activities and therefore contribute to long-term health improvements in Swindon. Table 5-2 shows that in 2011, 3% of Swindon’s residents used cycling as their main method of travel to work. This is slightly higher than the averages for the South West and England. 7% of people were reported as travelling to work on foot, in line with the South West figure but 2% below the total percentage for England.

Table 5-2 - Method of travel to work (2011 Census) Swindon South West England Work mainly at or from home 3% 3% 5% Underground, metro, light rail, tram 0% 3% 0% Train 1% 3% 1% Bus, minibus or coach 6% 5% 3% Taxi 0% 0% 0% Motorcycle, scooter or moped 1% 1% 1% Driving a car or van 45% 37% 41% Passenger in a car or van 4% 3% 3% Bicycle 3% 2% 2%

6 Pan et al (2020) Access to bike lanes and childhood obesity: A systematic review and meta-analysis

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Swindon South West England On foot 7% 7% 9% Other method of travel to work 0% 0% 0% Not in employment 29% 35% 34%

Source: QS701EW - Method of travel to work (2011 Census) Local air quality Air pollution can have a serious effect on people’s health, with potential short and long-term health impacts ranging from increased admissions to hospital to premature deaths due to heart and lung effects. Poor air quality can particularly impact the most vulnerable in society including children, older people, and those with heart and lung conditions. There is also often a strong correlation with equalities issues because, as shown in various studies, areas with poor air quality are also often the least affluent areas7 8. The only Air Quality Management Area (AQMA) in Swindon borough is on Kingshill Road (A4289) as shown in Figure 5-4. This area in particular was identified because regular monitoring of Nitrogen Dioxide (NO₂) in this location indicated that it was in breach of the annual average air quality objective of 40μg/m3. Figure 5-4 - Air Quality Management Area

Source: Swindon Borough Council website

The council produced a draft Air Quality Action Plan in 2019 which sets out how the level of NO2 will be reduced within the Kingshill Road area to at least compliant levels.

7 Environmental equity, air quality, socioeconomic status and respiratory health, 2010 8 Air quality and social deprivation in the UK: an environmental inequalities analysis, 2006

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Figure 5-5 shows enlarged sections of Figure D-2, Figure D-3, Figure D-4 and Figure 5-2 along with the location of the AQMA on Kingshill Road. It can be seen that the area has a moderately dense population of children and that it is in the vicinity of some small pockets which has a high concentration of over 70’s. Regarding the deprivation measures, the AQMA is close to one of the more deprived areas in terms of health and disability and also in terms of the overall Index of Multiple Deprivation. Figure 5-5 - AQMA and population density of vulnerable groups Over 70’s Under 16’s

Health Deprivation and Disability decile Index of Multiple Deprivation

Local noise Figure 5-6 shows the Noise Important Areas (NIA) in Swindon borough as well as the road and rail noise contours. It can be seen that the NIAs are mostly in the vicinity of the major road network, with some on key roads nearer the town centre (the A4289, A3102, A4259) and some by the railway to the west of the station.

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Figure 5-6 - Noise mapping

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Journey experience

National Highways and Transport Network The National Highways and Transport (NHT) Network is a performance improvement organisation which measures and compares the performance of various aspects of the transport network in order to support improvement. The NHT Survey collects the public’s views on aspects such as cycle routes, local bus services, road safety, congestion, and the condition of roads before compiling results into indicators for use by participating authorities. Participating authorities receive annual performance metrics which enable monitoring and benchmarking of improvements to their transport network. Table 5-3 shows how Swindon’s residents view the quality of public transport, active travel, highway maintenance, road safety and road traffic. Swindon performs relatively well in the indicators relating to local bus services and public travel information, showing improvement since 2019 as well as being significantly above the average of the participating authorities. While also above average in walking and cycling facilities, these areas have both seen a minor decrease in satisfaction since 2019. Highway condition was seen more negatively in 2020 than 2019 at only 33% satisfaction, while road safety showed little change since 2019 and is approximately in line with the average. Congestion is seen to have improved since 2019, but Swindon remains 2% below average for this indicator at only 44% satisfaction. Further details of Swindon’s 2020 NHT results can be found on the NHT website. Satisfaction colour coding is as follows: • Less than 50% • 50% to 75% • Greater than 75%

Table 5-3 - NHT 2020 results for Swindon Change Relation to Indicator Satisfaction since 2019 average

KBI06 Local bus services (overall) 67%  3%  7%

KBI08 Public transport information 51% -  7%

KBI11 Pavements & footpaths (overall) 56% -2%  1%

Cycle routes and facilities KBI13 57% -1% 8% (overall)

KBI23 Condition of highways 33% -4% -3%

KBI24 Highway maintenance 50% - ➔0%

KBI20 Road safety locally 58%  1%  1%

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Change Relation to Indicator Satisfaction since 2019 average

KBI17 Traffic levels & congestion 44%  3% -2%

National Rail Passenger Survey Transport Focus consults more than 50,000 passengers each year to produce the National Rail Passenger Survey. Figure 5-7 shows the combined levels of passenger satisfaction across Autumn and Spring 2019 for the Great Western Railway – West route compared with the overall satisfaction across all routes in Great Britain. It can be seen that Great Western Railway – West route, on which Swindon rail station lies, outperformed the national average in all areas except for the level of crowding on trains. Although 5% better than the national average, the satisfaction among those who experienced delays is less than 50%. Figure 5-7 - Rail passenger satisfaction 2019

Transport Focus National Rail Passenger Survey satisfaction scores; Waves - Spring 2019, Autumn 2019; Train operating company route - Great Western Railway – West; How delays are dealt with is only surveyed among those who experienced delays.

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6. Future data collection

The evidence base has been developed by making best use of available data and information . This means that in some cases gaps exist in the evidence or the data has an insufficient level of detail to draw appropriate conclusions. Persistent data gaps may also pose challenges for performance monitoring of LTP4. Some identified gaps in available data include: • Air quality data: At the time of writing, the latest Swindon Air Quality report was still in draft format and therefore has not been used to inform section 5.4 of this report; • Traffic data: At the time of writing, the Swindon Transport Model was being updated meaning that robust highway traffic predictions for future years were not available for this evidence base. A further constraint is the limited availability of permanent traffic count data to understand traffic flows on roads in the borough; • Data on active mode use and routing: Due to the highways focus of the existing transport model, the only data relating to mode choice for journeys in Swindon has been gleaned from 2011 Census data; • Data on bus patronage and usage: Due to commercial confidentiality in relation to bus patronage data it has not been possible to analyse this data for this report, however such data would be useful to understand the current demand on particular corridors and help consider the future potential for bus services providing for journeys in the town; • Car park usage data: Data on the number of available parking spaces has been included int his report, however further information on turnover, car park usage and purpose would provide a greater understanding on how and why car parks in the town are used to inform future policies. This would also need to consider private non-residential car parking availability and usage.

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Appendices

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Roads excluded in accident analysis

Local Authority Area Roads Managed by Figure 4-1 Figure 4-2 and Figure Highways England 4-3 Swindon M4, A419 All Highways England M4 excluded. Peterborough A1(M), A1, A47 roads excluded from A1(M) excluded. analysis. Telford M54, A5 M54 excluded. Warrington M6, M62 All HE roads excluded. Milton Keynes M1, A5, A421 M1 excluded. According to latest Network Management Map available on .gov, last updated 4th October 2019.

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Ranking of Swindon’s in- and out-commuting locations

In section 3.2, the roles played by Swindon as both a commuting origin and commuting destination were analysed. The digital vector boundary file of UK built-up areas (according to the Office of National Statistics 2011 Built-Up Areas – Methodology and Guidance) was used to identify the cities, towns and villages around Swindon. Using GIS, these areas were linked with the overlapping 2011 Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs) so that the 2011 LSOA census data regarding commuting numbers to and from Swindon could be assigned to them. The percentages listed do not take into account commuting movements within Swindon’s built up area.

Daily number of Percentage of all Daily number of Percentage of Location commuters to commuters to commuters all commuters Swindon Swindon from Swindon from Swindon Basingstoke 52 0% 146 0% Bath 415 1% 209 1% Bristol 1337 4% 991 3% Calne 834 2% 145 0% Carterton 169 1% 292 1% Cheltenham 505 2% 261 1% Chippenham (Wiltshire) 1191 4% 523 2% Cirencester 777 2% 930 3% Devizes 479 1% 483 2% Didcot 94 0% 307 1% Faringdon 341 1% 179 1% Gloucester 414 1% 336 1% Highworth 1587 5% 942 3% Lechlade 114 0% 19 0% Malmesbury 366 1% 258 1% Marlborough 584 2% 538 2% Melksham 231 1% 69 0% Newbury/Thatcham 328 1% 838 3% Oxford 262 1% 699 2% Purton 632 2% 408 1% Reading 603 2% 1035 3% Stroud 361 1% 104 0% Trowbridge 254 1% 96 0%

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Wantage 130 0% 167 1% Warminster 30 0% 10 0% Witney 104 0% 144 0% Wootton Bassett 2065 6% 2322 7% Yate 124 0% 56 0%

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Journey time ratios Quicker by car car by Quicker Public transport to car journey time ratio for journeys from Swindon during the AM peak (arrive by 08:30)

1:1

PT by Quicker carjourney time PT journey PT time

Quicker by car car by Quicker Public transport to car journey time ratio for journeys to Swindon during the AM peak (arrive by 08:30)

1:1

Quicker by PT by Quicker carjourney time PT journey PT time

Quicker by car car by Quicker

Public transport to car journey time ratio for journeys from Swindon during the PM peak (depart at 17:30)

1:1

PT by Quicker

PT journey PT time carjourney time

Public transport to car journey time ratio for journeys to Swindon during the PM peak (depart at 17:30) car by Quicker

1:1

Quicker by PT by Quicker

PT journey PT time carjourney time

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Distribution of population groups in Swindon

The figures that follow show the distribution of various population groups in Swindon borough. The colour scale is based on national deciles; the colour of each area shows the concentration of each population group relative to the whole of England, with yellow showing lower concentrations and dark blue higher.

Figure D-1 - Distribution of Black and Minority Ethnic groups in Swindon

Source: 2011 Census

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Figure D-2 - Distribution of over 70's in Swindon

Source: ONS population estimates

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Figure D-3 - Distribution of under 16’s in Swindon

Source: ONS population estimates

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Figure D-4 - Index of Multiple Deprivation

Source: Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government; English Indices of Deprivation 2019

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