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Chapter 7: Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System And Second Order Draft Chapter 7 IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report 1 Chapter 7: Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry 2 3 Coordinating Lead Authors: Guy Brasseur, Kenneth Denman 4 5 Lead Authors: Amnat Chidthaisong, Philippe Ciais, Peter Cox, Robert Dickinson, Didier Hauglustaine, 6 Christoph Heinze, Elisabeth Holland, Daniel Jacob, Ulrike Lohmann, Srikanthan Ramachandran, Pedro 7 Leite da Silva Diaz, Steven Wofsy, Xiaoye Zhang 8 9 Contributing Authors: David Archer, Vivek Arora, John Austin, David Baker, Joe Berry, Richard Betts, 10 Gordon Bonan, Philippe Bousquet, Josep Canadell, Deborah Clark, Martin Dameris, Franck Dentener, 11 Davod Easterling, Veronika Eyring, Johann Feichter, Pierre Friedlingstein, Inez Fung, Sandro Fuzzi, Sunling 12 Gong, Nicholas Gruber, Alex Guenther, Kevin Gurney, Ann Henderson-Sellers, Joanna House, Andy Jones, 13 Chris Jones, Bernd Kärcher, Michio Kawamiya, Keith Lassey, Carolyn Leck, Julia Lee-Taylor, Corinne Le 14 Quéré, Gordon McFiggans, Yadvinder Malhi, Kenneth Masarie, Surabi Menon, John B. Miller, Philippe 15 Peylin, Andy Pitman, Johannes Quaas, Michael Raupach, Peter Rayner, Gregor Rehder, Ulf Riebesell, 16 Christian Rödenbeck, Leon Rotstayn, Nigel Roulet, Chris Sabine, Martin Schultz, Michael Schulz, Steve 17 Schwartz, Will Steffen, David Stevenson, Yuhong Tian, Kevin Trenberth, Oliver Wild, Liming Zhou. 18 19 Review Editors: Kansri Boonpragob, Martin Heimann, Mario Molina 20 21 Date of Draft: 5 March 2006 22 23 Notes: TSU compiled version 24 25 26 Table of Contents 27 28 Executive Summary............................................................................................................................................................3 29 7.1 Introduction................................................................................................................................................................4 30 7.1.1 Terrestrial Ecosystems and Climate .............................................................................................................5 31 7.1.2 Ocean Ecosystems and Climate ...................................................................................................................7 32 7.1.3 Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate............................................................................................................7 33 7.1.4 Aerosol Particles and Climate ......................................................................................................................7 34 7.1.5 Coupling the Biogeochemical Cycles with the Climate System ...................................................................8 35 7.2 The Changing Land Climate System .........................................................................................................................8 36 7.2.1 Introduction to Land Climate........................................................................................................................8 37 Box 7.1: Surface Energy and Water Balance......................................................................................................................9 38 7.2.2 Dependences of Land Processes and Climate on Scale ..............................................................................10 39 Box 7.2: Urban and Other Land Use Effects on Climate..................................................................................................11 40 7.2.3 Observational Basis for the Effects of Land Surface on Climate................................................................12 41 7.2.4 Modelling the Coupling of Vegetation, Moisture Availability, Precipitation and Surface Temperature....14 42 7.2.5 Evaluation of Models Through Intercomparison ........................................................................................16 43 7.2.6 Linking Biophysical to Biogeochemical and Ecological Components........................................................17 44 7.3 The Carbon Cycle and the Climate System .............................................................................................................18 45 7.3.1 Overview of the Global Carbon Cycle ........................................................................................................18 46 7.3.2 The Contemporary Carbon Budget.............................................................................................................20 47 7.3.3 Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Processes and Feedbacks to Climate.................................................................28 48 7.3.4 Ocean Carbon Cycle Processes and Feedbacks to Climate........................................................................33 49 Box 7.3: Marine Carbon Chemistry and Ocean Acidification..........................................................................................33 50 7.3.5 Coupling Between the Carbon Cycle and Climate......................................................................................38 51 7.4 Reactive Gases and the Climate System ..................................................................................................................42 52 7.4.1 Methane (CH4) ............................................................................................................................................43 53 7.4.2. Nitrogen Compounds ..................................................................................................................................46 54 7.4.3. Molecular Hydrogen ...................................................................................................................................49 55 7.4.4 Global Tropospheric Ozone........................................................................................................................50 56 7.4.5. The Hydroxyl Radical (OH) ........................................................................................................................54 57 7.4.6 Stratospheric Ozone and Climate ...............................................................................................................57 58 7.5 Aerosol Particles and the Climate System ...............................................................................................................59 59 7.5.1 Aerosol Emissions and Burdens Affected by Climatic Factors ...................................................................59 60 7.5.2 Indirect Effects of Aerosols on Clouds and Precipitation...........................................................................62 Do Not Cite or Quote 7-1 Total pages: 120 Second Order Draft Chapter 7 IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report 1 7.5.3 Effects of Aerosols/Clouds on the Solar Radiation at the Earth's Surface..................................................67 2 7.5.4 Effects of Aerosols on Circulation Patterns................................................................................................68 3 7.6 Concluding Remarks................................................................................................................................................70 4 Box 7.4: Effects of Climate Change on Air Quality.........................................................................................................70 5 References ........................................................................................................................................................................72 6 Question 7.1: Are the Increases in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Other Greenhouse Gases During the Industrial Era 7 Caused by Human Activities?................................................................................................................................117 8 Tables .............................................................................................................................................................................119 9 Do Not Cite or Quote 7-2 Total pages: 120 Second Order Draft Chapter 7 IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report 1 Executive Summary 2 3 Biogeochemical cycles interact with the climate system over a wide-range of temporal and spatial scales. 4 Nonlinear interactions involving physical, chemical and biological processes could amplify (positive 5 feedbacks) or attenuate (negative feedbacks) the disturbances produced by human activities. The response of 6 the climate system to anthropogenic perturbations is therefore expected to involve reciprocal interactions 7 with the land surface, the carbon cycle, reactive gases and aerosol particles. 8 9 The Land Surface and Climate 10 • Changes in the land surface (vegetation, soils, water) resulting from human activities can significantly 11 affect regional and local climate through shifts in radiation, cloudiness, and surface temperatures. 12 Similarly, Changes in land use, climate, and atmospheric composition affect the distribution and 13 functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. 14 • Changes in vegetation cover have a substantial effect on surface energy and water balance at the regional 15 scale. Model results indicate increased boreal forest cover results in reduced albedo and significant 16 regional warming, offsetting cooling effects of carbon uptake. 17 • The impact of land-use change on climate may be very significant at regional scales, but is expected to be 18 small at the global scale in comparison with greenhouse gas warming. 19 20 The Carbon Cycle and Climate 21 • The land and oceans have continued to absorb ~45% of the CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning and 22 cement production.
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