Mindset Matters" Understanding Prime Ministers' Performance in Central
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Central European University “MINDSET MATTERS” UNDERSTANDING PRIME MINISTERS’ PERFORMANCE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE By Bojana Kocijan Submitted to Department of Political Science In partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Supervisory panel: András Bozóki, Supervisor, Central European University Carsten Schneider, Central European University Lea Sgier, Central European University John Higley, University of Austin, Texas CEU eTD Collection Budapest, Hungary May 2014 Statement I hereby declare that this work contains no materials accepted for any other degrees in any other institutions. This thesis contains no materials previously written and/or published by another person unless otherwise noted. Bojana Kocijan May 2014 CEU eTD Collection To My Family With Love and Gratitude CEU eTD Collection Abstract This dissertation explores the role of political culture in leadership performance. The literature has hitherto only speculated about the role culture plays in how leaders perform. This study argues that mindset matters and demonstrates it largely accounts for prime ministers’ integrity of conduct and effective governance that improves citizens’ welfare. The study assesses the performance of 33 Eastern European prime ministers in democratic governance based on an original data collection using expert surveys. Prime ministers’ performance in democratic governance requires delivering effective outcomes in European Union (EU) integration, economic and social policy making by concomitant respect for democratic institutions. Policy outcomes set as criteria for assessing performance requires establishing that prime ministers are the main policymaking actors. The study demonstrates that despite their formally weak Constitutional powers, most Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) prime ministers are perceived as strong in reference to their policymaking abilities. Findings of the study only partially confirm the negative culture thesis. CEE prime ministers are generally average politicians moderately respectful of democratic institutions and moderately committed to reforms that improve citizens’ welfare. They neither greatly improve nor severely erode the democratic framework or policy outcomes in EU integration, economic and social policymaking. They are largely pro-European politicians valuing EU membership and engaging in activities that bring their countries closer to the EU. That they are more democratic than effective relates to the complexity of transitions and structural reforms. Polish and Estonian prime ministers perform best in democratic governance, while Latvian prime ministers perform worst, which is in line with generally higher corruption rates in Latvia than in other countries. In reference to prime ministers’ programmatic performance, the study finds cultural variables outperform demographic and contextual variables. According to path-dependent theories, old values carry over from the past and appear important under democracy. Leaders’ mindsets, the study shows, are especially relevant in newly democratized settings where old norms and values continue to influence present developments. CEE prime ministers were socialized during communism, which was characterized by values different from norms required for democratic governance. Once transmitted into democratized settings, the old values manifested as populism, personalization of politics and corruption. Prime ministers characterized as populists and engaged in populist rhetoric are more likely to violate the democratic framework and deliver ineffective policies that erode citizens’ welfare. While the study shifts the research focus from exploring aspects of prime ministers’ position in the decision-making realm (procedural performance) to exploring the outcomes of their conduct and policymaking (programmatic performance) it also demonstrates that the relationship between different types of performance is not always symmetrical as literature suggests but very often asymmetrical. Prime ministers’ better programmatic performance did not always increase their electoral prospects. The study CEU eTD Collection suggests that contextual factors surrounding elections, rather than past record in office, explains why Eastern Europeans sanction leaders who perform well and frequently keep in office leaders who performed poorly. Acknowledgments I extend my deep gratitude to everyone who took part in my doctoral journey and helped me navigate through the scientific minefield of political leadership. I am foremost grateful to András Bozóki, my supervisor and friend, who witnessed the transformation of this project from when it was only a vague idea until it became a doctoral dissertation. His support and encouragement, especially at times when “the end of the tunnel” was not clearly visible, I most appreciate. Lea Sgier and Carsten Schneider provided crucial feedback on thesis’ research design and methodology. Carsten was extremely helpful in methodological suggestions and Lea was instrumental in providing comprehensive feedback on final structure of the manuscript. I am grateful to John Higley for numerous and timely interventions in my project and for contributing to its original arguments during the research semester I spent at the University of Texas. I extend my gratitude to Gábor Tóka, Dorothee Bohle, Levente Littvay, Vlastimil Havlík, Juraj Medzihorský and Oana Lup for providing expertise regarding specific aspects of the thesis. I thank Kirk Hawkins for letting me use dataset produced in a joint project on populism. I acknowledge the research opportunity and financial support by Central European University in Budapest and International Visegrád Fund in Bratislava without which I could not engage and complete my doctoral studies. I was able to launch a third survey wave with a generous help of the following individuals who translated the survey questionnaire; Ardi Priks in Estonian, Inga Popovaite in Lithuanian, Martins Sijats in Latvian, Szabolcs Farkasvölgyi in Hungarian, Aleksandra Lis in Polish, Matej Kurian in Slovak and Silvia Hudáčková in Czech. I am especially grateful to Fiona Cochrane, Ashley Moore, Alessia Johns, David O’Riordan, Helen Sullivan-Looney and Sean Looney who proofread dissertation’s chapters at short notice and expedited submission of the final manuscript. I am thankful to my flat mates and friends Salma Iorgu, Irina Rusu, Raluca Ami Pop, Ashley Moore, Sean Looney and Hellen Sullivan-Looney for making many years spent in beautiful Budapest fun and exciting. I am indebted to Jerko Kocijan for his encouragement to enroll in doctoral studies, when we privately parted ways. I greatly appreciate Anita Salát’s friendship and hospitality throughout many trips to Budapest in the final year of my studies. Kristina Kopričanec, my friend and neighbor excused my too many “coffee absences” that extended for months as I was reaching thesis completion. The Turkish TV drama series “Karadyi” accompanied me during many solitary nights when it was impossible to sleep right after I was done with writing. The plot has nicely tied into my research topic, and convinced me further that mindset matters, and that corruption among elites can easily happen within the boundaries of law, resulting in irreparable social and political injustices. I deeply regret my mother could not live longer to witness the completion of this project, but I am always grateful for all she taught me and for all she has done for me. Because I am mostly indebted to my parents CEU eTD Collection and my sister for their unconditional love, support and understanding, it is to them I dedicate this thesis. I bear full responsibility for all errors and omissions I inadvertently made in what follows. Table of Contents Acknowledgements List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................. ix List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................. x INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................................................................1 CHAPTER 1: UNDERSTANDING PRIME MINISTERS’ PERFORMANCE .............................9 1.1 Prime ministers’ ability to influence decision-making .........................................................9 1.1.1 Process-oriented literature ............................................................................................10 1.1.2 Power-oriented literature ..............................................................................................12 1.2 Assessing prime ministers’ performance ............................................................................15 1.2.1 Establishing criteria for prime ministers’ performance ................................................15 1.2.2 Types of prime ministers’ performance ........................................................................18 1.2.3 Prime ministers’ programmatic performance ...............................................................20 1.2.4 Categorization of prime ministers’ programmatic performance ...................................25 1.2.5 Prime ministers’ electoral performance ........................................................................26 1.3 Explaining prime ministers’ programmatic performance ...................................................29 1.3.1 Cultural explanations ....................................................................................................30