DOCSLIB.ORG

Superforecasting Or SNAFU: the Forecasting Ability of the US Military Officer

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Superforecasting Or SNAFU: the Forecasting Ability of the US Military Officer University of Central Florida STARS Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2004-2019 2019 Superforecasting or SNAFU: The Forecasting Ability of the US Military Officer David Raugh University of Central Florida Part of the Defense and Security Studies Commons Find similar works at: https://stars.library.ucf.edu/etd University of Central Florida Libraries http://library.ucf.edu This Doctoral Dissertation (Open Access) is brought to you for free and open access by STARS. It has been accepted for inclusion in Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2004-2019 by an authorized administrator of STARS. For more information, please contact [email protected]. STARS Citation Raugh, David, "Superforecasting or SNAFU: The Forecasting Ability of the US Military Officer" (2019). Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2004-2019. 6356. https://stars.library.ucf.edu/etd/6356 SUPERFORECASTING OR SNAFU: THE FORECASTING ABILITY OF THE US MILITARY OFFICER by DAVID L. RAUGH B.S. United States Military Academy, 1993 M.S. Kansas State University, 2004 M.M.A.S. School of Advanced Military Studies, 2005 A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of Political Science in the College of Science at the University of Central Florida Orlando, Florida Spring Term 2019 Major Professor: Thomas Dolan ABSTRACT What is the impact of military institutional tendencies and habits on U.S. Army senior officer forecasting accuracy and how does this forecasting ability shape success in battle? Military leaders plan operations based on the forecasted strengths and vulnerabilities of their adversary. Negative habits, such as limited option development, confirmation bias, doctrinal overreliance, and over-consideration of sunk costs, inhibit effective forecasting. The tempo of the modern battlefield, hierarchical culture, and institutional tendencies of the US Army may promote and reinforce these habits. I surveyed Colonels in US Army War College programs to measure their individual tendencies, levels of education, and accuracy in forecasting events during a three to twelve-month future. Quantitative analysis of the resulting data shows that these habits are present and negatively affect forecasting ability; additionally, higher levels of education positively affect forecast accuracy, possibly counteracting the effects of negative institutional tendencies and habits. Extending the research using historical and contemporary case studies of senior US Army Generals, including interviews of General David Petraeus and other high- ranking officials, I find that rejection of these institutional habits and tendencies enabled superior forecasting, leading to battlefield success. I conclude by examining how educational levels of commanding generals in the Iraq War affected military success. Exploratory quantitative analysis of data collected from the US Army historical archives shows that higher levels of education positively affected significant activities within the general’s assigned areas. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................................................................... vi LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................................................................... vii CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER TWO: THE IMPACT OF MILITARY INSTITUTIONAL TENDENCIES AND HABITS ON FORECASTING .................................................................................................................................................... 4 Examination of Relevant Research .............................................................................................................. 6 Disciplinary Perspectives ............................................................................................................................ 7 Multidisciplinary Application to State Policy ..................................................................................... 9 The US Military and Forecasting ........................................................................................................... 11 Population of Interest ................................................................................................................................ 13 Theory- The Impact of US Army Institutional Tendencies and Habits ..................................... 14 Specialization ................................................................................................................................................ 15 Limited Option Development ................................................................................................................. 20 Neglect of Inconsistent Information .................................................................................................... 21 Neglect of Deviational Views .................................................................................................................. 23 Doctrinal Reliance ....................................................................................................................................... 25 Sunk Costs ....................................................................................................................................................... 27 Research Design ................................................................................................................................................ 28 Dependent Variable .................................................................................................................................... 28 Explanatory variables ................................................................................................................................ 30 Survey Sample ............................................................................................................................................... 33 Results ................................................................................................................................................................... 34 Conclusion and Future Research ............................................................................................................... 44 CHAPTER THREE: SENIOR GENERAL CASE STUDY .............................................................................. 49 Examination of Relevant Research ........................................................................................................... 51 iii Disciplinary Perspectives ......................................................................................................................... 51 Forecasting ..................................................................................................................................................... 54 Decision-making .......................................................................................................................................... 55 Military Decision-making ......................................................................................................................... 56 The Effect of Military Institutional Tendencies and Habits ....................................................... 56 Discounting Inconsistent Information................................................................................................ 57 Neglect of Deviational Views .................................................................................................................. 59 Research Design ................................................................................................................................................ 60 Tracking the Variables of Interest ........................................................................................................ 61 General McClellan in the Peninsula Campaign (1862) ..................................................................... 62 Background .................................................................................................................................................... 62 McClellan’s Overestimates ....................................................................................................................... 64 McClellan Ignored Dissent, Leading to Lost Opportunities ....................................................... 66 Outcome of the Peninsula Campaign .................................................................................................. 68 General Bradley in Operation Cobra (1944) ......................................................................................... 69 Background .................................................................................................................................................... 70 Bradley’s Consideration of Contrary Information Enables the Breakout ........................... 71 Bradley’s Promotion of Alternative Views and Subordinate Suggestions .......................... 73 Outcome of Operation Cobra .................................................................................................................. 74 General Petraeus during the Iraq Surge (2006-2008) ..................................................................... 75 Petraeus’ Forecasting Ability
Load more

Recommended publications
  • A New Formula in the Battle for Fallujah | the Washington Institute
    MENU Policy Analysis / Articles & Op-Eds A New Formula in the Battle for Fallujah by Michael Knights May 25, 2016 Also available in Arabic ABOUT THE AUTHORS Michael Knights Michael Knights is the Boston-based Jill and Jay Bernstein Fellow of The Washington Institute, specializing in the military and security affairs of Iraq, Iran, and the Persian Gulf states. Articles & Testimony The campaign is Iraq's latest attempt to push militia and coalition forces into a single battlespace, and lessons from past efforts have seemingly improved their tactics. n May 22, the Iraqi government announced the opening of the long-awaited battle of Fallujah, the city only O 30 miles west of Baghdad that has been fully under the control of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant group for the past 29 months. Fallujah was a critical hub for al-Qaeda in Iraq and later ISIL in the decade before ISIL's January 2014 takeover. On the one hand it may seem surprising that Fallujah has not been liberated sooner -- after all, it has been the ISIL- controlled city closest to Baghdad for more than two years. The initial reason was that there was always something more urgent to do with Iraq's security forces. In January 2014, the Iraqi security forces were focused on preventing an ISIL takeover of Ramadi next door. The effort to retake Fallujah was judged to require detailed planning, and a hasty counterattack seemed like a pointless risk. In retrospect it may have been worth an early attempt to break up ISIL's control of the city while it was still incomplete.
    [Show full text]
  • The Politics of Security in Ninewa: Preventing an ISIS Resurgence in Northern Iraq
    The Politics of Security in Ninewa: Preventing an ISIS Resurgence in Northern Iraq Julie Ahn—Maeve Campbell—Pete Knoetgen Client: Office of Iraq Affairs, U.S. Department of State Harvard Kennedy School Faculty Advisor: Meghan O’Sullivan Policy Analysis Exercise Seminar Leader: Matthew Bunn May 7, 2018 This Policy Analysis Exercise reflects the views of the authors and should not be viewed as representing the views of the US Government, nor those of Harvard University or any of its faculty. Acknowledgements We would like to express our gratitude to the many people who helped us throughout the development, research, and drafting of this report. Our field work in Iraq would not have been possible without the help of Sherzad Khidhir. His willingness to connect us with in-country stakeholders significantly contributed to the breadth of our interviews. Those interviews were made possible by our fantastic translators, Lezan, Ehsan, and Younis, who ensured that we could capture critical information and the nuance of discussions. We also greatly appreciated the willingness of U.S. State Department officials, the soldiers of Operation Inherent Resolve, and our many other interview participants to provide us with their time and insights. Thanks to their assistance, we were able to gain a better grasp of this immensely complex topic. Throughout our research, we benefitted from consultations with numerous Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) faculty, as well as with individuals from the larger Harvard community. We would especially like to thank Harvard Business School Professor Kristin Fabbe and Razzaq al-Saiedi from the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative who both provided critical support to our project.
    [Show full text]
  • Congressional Record—Senate S4700
    S4700 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD — SENATE August 2, 2017 required. American workers have wait- of Kansas, to be a Member of the Na- billion each year in State and local ed too long for our country to crack tional Labor Relations Board for the taxes. down on abusive trade practices that term of five years expiring August 27, As I said at the beginning, I have had rob our country of millions of good- 2020. many differences with President paying jobs. The PRESIDING OFFICER. Under Trump, particularly on the issue of im- Today, I am proud to announce that the previous order, the time until 11 migration in some of the speeches and the Democratic Party will be laying a.m. will be equally divided between statements he has made, but I do ap- out our new policy on trade, which in- the two leaders or their designees. preciate—personally appreciate—that cludes, among other things, an inde- The assistant Democratic leader. this President has kept the DACA Pro- pendent trade prosecutor to combat DACA gram in place. trade cheating, not one of these endless Mr. DURBIN. Mr. President, many I have spoken directly to President WTO processes that China takes advan- times over the last 6 months, I have Trump only two times—three times, tage of over and over again; a new come to the Senate to speak out on perhaps. The first two times—one on American jobs security council that issues and to disagree with President Inauguration Day—I thanked him for will be able to review and stop foreign Trump.
    [Show full text]
  • A Photojournalist's Field Guide: in the Trenches with Combat Photographer
    A PHOTOJOURNALISt’S FIELD GUIDE IN THE TRENCHES WITH COMBAT PHOTOGRAPHER STACY PEARSALL A Photojournalist’s Field Guide: In the trenches with combat photographer Stacy Pearsall Stacy Pearsall Peachpit Press www.peachpit.com To report errors, please send a note to [email protected] Peachpit Press is a division of Pearson Education. Copyright © 2013 by Stacy Pearsall Project Editor: Valerie Witte Production Editor: Katerina Malone Copyeditor: Liz Welch Proofreader: Erin Heath Composition: WolfsonDesign Indexer: Valerie Haynes Perry Cover Photo: Stacy Pearsall Cover and Interior Design: Mimi Heft Notice of Rights All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or trans- mitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopy- ing, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher. For information on getting permission for reprints and excerpts, contact [email protected]. Notice of Liability The information in this book is distributed on an “As Is” basis, without warranty. While every precaution has been taken in the preparation of the book, neither the author nor Peachpit shall have any liability to any person or entity with respect to any loss or damage caused or alleged to be caused directly or indirectly by the instructions contained in this book or by the computer software and hardware products described in it. Trademarks Many of the designations used by manufacturers and sellers to distinguish their products are claimed as trademarks. Where those designations appear in this book, and Peachpit was aware of a trade- mark claim, the designations appear as requested by the owner of the trademark.
    [Show full text]
  • 70Th Annual 1St Cavalry Division Association Reunion
    1st Cavalry Division Association 302 N. Main St. Non-Profit Organization Copperas Cove, Texas 76522-1703 US. Postage PAID West, TX Change Service Requested 76691 Permit No. 39 PublishedSABER By and For the Veterans of the Famous 1st Cavalry Division VOLUME 66 NUMBER 1 Website: http://www.1cda.org JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2017 The President’s Corner Horse Detachment by CPT Jeremy A. Woodard Scott B. Smith This will be my last Horse Detachment to Represent First Team in Inauguration Parade By Sgt. 833 State Highway11 President’s Corner. It is with Carolyn Hart, 1st Cav. Div. Public Affairs, Fort Hood, Texas. Laramie, WY 82070-9721 deep humility and considerable A long standing tradition is being (307) 742-3504 upheld as the 1st Cavalry Division <[email protected]> sorrow that I must announce my resignation as the President Horse Cavalry Detachment gears up to participate in the Inauguration of the 1st Cavalry Division Association effective Saturday, 25 February 2017. Day parade Jan. 20 in Washington, I must say, first of all, that I have enjoyed my association with all of you over D.C. This will be the detachment’s the years…at Reunions, at Chapter meetings, at coffees, at casual b.s. sessions, fifth time participating in the event. and at various activities. My assignments to the 1st Cavalry Division itself and “It’s a tremendous honor to be able my friendships with you have been some of the highpoints of my life. to do this,” Capt. Jeremy Woodard, To my regret, my medical/physical condition precludes me from travelling.
    [Show full text]
  • Fighting the Islamic State By, With, and Through How Mattered As Much As What
    Paratroopers with Charlie Battery, 2nd Battalion, 319th Airborne Field Artillery Regiment, 82nd Airborne Division, rotate M777 155mm howitzer in preparation to engage militants with artillery fire in support of Iraqi and Peshmerga fighters in Mosul (U.S. Army/Christopher Bigelow) Fighting the Islamic State By, With, and Through How Mattered as Much as What By J. Patrick Work n January 2017, the 2nd Brigade a simple framework: help the ISF and and approach—how we advised—offer Combat Team, 82nd Airborne Divi- hurt IS every day. Naturally, we had useful examples and angles for leaders I sion, deployed to bolster the Iraqi missteps, but our team also served ISF to ponder as we consider future excur- Security Forces (ISF) in the campaign and coalition commanders well on sions with this style of high-intensity to annihilate the so-called Islamic some terribly uncertain days. Specifi- security force assistance.1 State (IS). Task Force Falcon joined cally, how we advised ISF commanders the coalition advise-and-assist (A&A) was as important as what we advised Organizing Principles effort with 2 weeks remaining during them to do in order to win. We mixed Our mission under Operation Inherent the 100-day offensive to retake east innovative concepts and straightfor- Resolve (OIR) proved infinitely different Mosul. For the next 8 months, we ward tactics to attack IS by, with, and than the exhausting, firsthand combat wrestled a complex environment with through the ISF, yet the entire effort that many of us experienced in Iraq always centered on our partners’ lead- from 2003 to 2008.
    [Show full text]
  • Geopolitical Overview of Conflicts 2016
    Geopolitical overview of Spanish Institute for conflicts 2016 Strategic Studies MINISTERIO DE DEFENSA Geopolitical overview Spanish Institute for of conflicts 2016 Strategic Studies MINISTERIO DE DEFENSA SPANISH OFFICIAL PUBLICATIONS CATALOGUE http://publicacionesoficiales.boe.es Edita: SECRETARÍA GENERAL TÉCNICA http://publicaciones.defensa.gob.es/ © Author and Publisher, 2017 NIPO: 083-16-308-8 (print on demand) NIPO: 083-16-309-3 (e-book edition) Publication date: september 2017 The authors are solely responsible for the opinions expresed in the articles in this publication. The exploitation righits of this work are protected by the Spanish Intellectual Property Act. No parts of this publication may be produced, stored or transmitted in any way nor by any means, electronic, mechanical or print, including photo- copies or any other means without prior, express, written consent of the © copyright holders. ÍNDEX Page Introduction The role of the major powers in current conflicts ...................................................... 9 Miguel Ángel Ballesteros Martín Conflict trends ............................................................................................................................... 9 The resolutions of the Security Council as a gauge of its activity ...................................... 11 Russia’s comeback as a world power ...................................................................................... 13 The military policy of China as an emerging power .............................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Mosul After the Battle
    Mosul after the Battle Reparations for civilian harm and the future of Ninewa © Ceasefire Centre for Civilian Rights and Minority Rights Group International January 2020 Cover photo: This report has been produced with the financial assistance of the Swiss Federal De- A woman peeks out of a gate partment of Foreign Affairs and the European Union. The contents of this report are peppered with bullet marks after fighting between the Iraqi Army the sole responsibility of the publishers and can under no circumstances be regarded and ISIS militants in Al-Qadisiyah as reflecting the position of the Swiss FDFA or the European Union. district, Mosul, Iraq. © Iva Zimova/Panos This report was written by Khaled Zaza and Élise Steiner of Zaza Consulting, Mariam Bilikhodze and Dr. Mahmood Azzo Hamdow of the Faculty of Political Sci- ence, University of Mosul. Special thanks to Dr. Tine Gade for research support and review of the report. Ceasefire Centre for Civilian Rights The Ceasefire Centre for Civilian Rights is a new initiative to develop ‘civilian-led monitoring’ of violations of international humanitarian law or human rights, to pursue legal and political accountability for those responsible for such violations, and to develop the practice of civilian rights. The Ceasefire Centre for Civilian Rights is registered as a charity and a company limited by guarantee under English law; charity no: 1160083, company no: 9069133. Minority Rights Group International MRG is an NGO working to secure the rights of ethnic, religious and linguistic minorities and indigenous peoples worldwide, and to promote cooperation and understanding between communities. MRG works with over 150 partner orga- nizations in nearly 50 countries.
    [Show full text]
  • Order of Battle Changes for Operation Phantom Thunder
    BACKGROUNDER #2 Order of Battle for Operation Phantom Thunder Kimberly Kagan, Executive Director and Wesley Morgan, Researcher June 20, 2007 General David Petraeus, commander of Multi-National Forces-Iraq, and Lieutenant General Raymond Odierno, commander of Multi-National Corps-Iraq, launched a coordinated offensive operation on June 15, 2007 to clear al Qaeda strongholds outside of Baghdad. The arrival of the fifth Army “surge” brigade, the Marine Expeditionary Unit, and the combat aviation brigade enabled GEN Petraeus and LTG Odierno to begin this major offensive, named “Operation Phantom Thunder.” Three different U.S. Division Headquarters in different provinces are participating in Phantom Thunder. Multi-National Division-North (Diyala); Multi-National Division-Center (North Babil and Baghdad); and Multi-National Division-West (Anbar). In addition to reinforcing these areas with new troops, LTG Odierno and his division commanders have repositioned some brigades and battalions that were already operating in and around Baghdad. MND-North, Diyala Operation Arrowhead Ripper The core unit in Diyala has been 3rd BCT (Brigade Combat Team), 1st Cavalry Division, which has four battalions plus reinforcements. One of its battalions, 1-12 CAV, has been stationed on FOB Warhorse. A second battalion from the same brigade, the 6-9 ARS, has been operating in Muqdadiya, northeast of Baquba. The 5-73 RSTA (Reconnaissance, Scouting, and Target Acquisition Squadron) has been operating in the river valley northeast of Baquba (in locations such as Zaganiyah). The 5-20 Infantry has been operating in and around southern Baquba. (In addition, MND-N has sent a company from 2-35 Infantry to 5-73 and a company from 1-505 Parachute Infantry Regiment to 6-9 in order to provide those battalions with infantry).
    [Show full text]
  • Gaidi Mtaani (Published by Al
    University of Central Florida STARS Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2004-2019 2018 Recruiting Followers for the Caliphate: A Narrative Analysis of Four Jihadist Magazines Andrea Madrazo University of Central Florida Part of the Mass Communication Commons Find similar works at: https://stars.library.ucf.edu/etd University of Central Florida Libraries http://library.ucf.edu This Masters Thesis (Open Access) is brought to you for free and open access by STARS. It has been accepted for inclusion in Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2004-2019 by an authorized administrator of STARS. For more information, please contact [email protected]. STARS Citation Madrazo, Andrea, "Recruiting Followers for the Caliphate: A Narrative Analysis of Four Jihadist Magazines" (2018). Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2004-2019. 5786. https://stars.library.ucf.edu/etd/5786 RECRUITING FOLLOWERS FOR THE CALIPHATE: A NARRATIVE ANALYSIS OF FOUR JIHADIST MAGAZINES by ANDREA NICOLE MADRAZO B.A., University of Central Florida, 2016 A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in the Department of Communication in the College of Sciences at the University of Central Florida Orlando, Florida Major Professor: Jonathan Matusitz Spring Term 2018 2018 Andrea Madrazo ii ABSTRACT This study identifies and compares the methods of recruitment used by three prime jihadist organizations through their online magazines. The successful recruitment efforts and growth as a threat by the Islamic State of Iraq and Shām (ISIS), Al-Qaeda, and Al-Shabaab are attributed, in part, to the widespread popularity and accessibility of Dabiq and Rumiyah (published by ISIS), Inspire (published by Al-Qaeda), and Gaidi Mtaani (published by Al- Shabaab).
    [Show full text]
  • Operation Inherent Resolve Report/Operation Pacific Eagle-Philippines, Report to the United States Congress, January 1, 2018-Mar
    LEAD INSPECTOR GENERAL I REPORT TO THE UNITED STATES CONGRESS OVERSEAS CONTINGENCY OPERATIONS OPERATION INHERENT RESOLVE OPERATION PACIFIC EAGLE–PHILIPPINES JANUARY 1, 2018‒MARCH 31, 2018 LEAD INSPECTOR GENERAL MISSION The Lead Inspector General for Overseas Contingency Operations coordinates among the Inspectors General specified under the law to: • Develop a joint strategic plan to conduct comprehensive oversight over all aspects of the contingency operation. • Ensure independent and effective oversight of all programs and operations of the Federal Government in support of the contingency operation through either joint or individual audits, inspections, and investigations. • Promote economy, efficiency, and effectiveness and prevent, detect, and deter fraud, waste, and abuse. • Perform analyses to ascertain the accuracy of information provided by Federal agencies relating to obligations and expenditures, costs of programs and projects, accountability of funds, and the award and execution of major contracts, grants, and agreements. • Report quarterly and biannually to the Congress and the public on the contingency operation and activities of the Lead Inspector General. (Pursuant to sections 2, 4, and 8L of the Inspector General Act of 1978) FOREWORD We are pleased to submit the Lead Inspector General (Lead IG) quarterly report to the U.S. Congress on Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR) and Operation Pacific Eagle- Philippines (OPE-P). This is our 13th quarterly report on OIR and 2nd quarterly report on OPE-P, discharging our individual and collective agency oversight responsibilities pursuant to sections 2, 4, and 8L of the Inspector General Act of 1978. The United States launched OIR at the end of 2014 to militarily defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in the Combined Joint Area of Operations in order to enable whole-of-governmental actions to increase regional stability.
    [Show full text]
  • 19 Engineer Battalion United States Army
    19TH ENGINEER BATTALION UNITED STATES ARMY SHIELD: The shield of the coat of arms is used to indicate the descent of the 19th Engineer Battalion from the 3rd Battalion of the 36th Engineer Regiment. COLORS: The colors red and white are used for Engineers. The wavy partition line and the Seahorse symbolize participation in Marine Transportation and Amphibious Landings by the 36th Engineer Regiment. MOTTO: ACUTUS ACUMEN (1952-1976) ACUTUM ACUMEN (1976-Present) Translation - “SHARP INGENUITY” DEDICATION: This documentation is a history of the soldiers and key events of the 19th Engineer Battalion. The men who served and even gave their lives for the preservation of American ideals are remembered within these pages. Were it not for the soldiers of the 19th Engineer Battalion, the victories chronicled herein could not have taken place. Therefore, in remembrance of the soldiers, let this document be proudly dedicated to the men of the 19th Engineer Battalion. INTRODUCTION: The heritage of the 19th Engineer Battalion is a long and proud one. Its parent unit, the 36th Engineer Combat Regiment was named by the Nazi’s as “The Little Seahorse Division”. During WORLD WAR II, the men of the Regiment gave their energy, hearts and lives for America from 1941 to 1945. They participated in the African campaign, and through the muddy and bloody Italian and French campaigns, across Germany and into Austria by the end of the war. While stationed in the States during the COLD WAR the Battalion participated in disaster relief from hurricanes and floods, trained, and were always ready for missions assigned.
    [Show full text]