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Geopolitical Overview of Conflicts 2016

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Geopolitical Overview of Conflicts 2016 Geopolitical overview of Spanish Institute for conflicts 2016 Strategic Studies MINISTERIO DE DEFENSA Geopolitical overview Spanish Institute for of conflicts 2016 Strategic Studies MINISTERIO DE DEFENSA SPANISH OFFICIAL PUBLICATIONS CATALOGUE http://publicacionesoficiales.boe.es Edita: SECRETARÍA GENERAL TÉCNICA http://publicaciones.defensa.gob.es/ © Author and Publisher, 2017 NIPO: 083-16-308-8 (print on demand) NIPO: 083-16-309-3 (e-book edition) Publication date: september 2017 The authors are solely responsible for the opinions expresed in the articles in this publication. The exploitation righits of this work are protected by the Spanish Intellectual Property Act. No parts of this publication may be produced, stored or transmitted in any way nor by any means, electronic, mechanical or print, including photo- copies or any other means without prior, express, written consent of the © copyright holders. ÍNDEX Page Introduction The role of the major powers in current conflicts ...................................................... 9 Miguel Ángel Ballesteros Martín Conflict trends ............................................................................................................................... 9 The resolutions of the Security Council as a gauge of its activity ...................................... 11 Russia’s comeback as a world power ...................................................................................... 13 The military policy of China as an emerging power .............................................................. 19 The end of the US as the indispensable nation? ..................................................................... 19 Chapter one War between states? Balance of power and realistic logic? .................................. 23 Ignacio José Garcia Sánchez Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 23 Conflict Background ..................................................................................................................... 26 Current situation regarding the conflict ................................................................................... 29 Role of the external stakeholders ............................................................................................. 34 Conclusions and prospect ........................................................................................................... 36 Table of geopolitical indicators .................................................................................................. 40 Chapter two Jihadist terrorism in Morocco ............................................................................................. 43 Ignacio Fuente Cobo Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 44 Background to the conflict .......................................................................................................... 44 Current situation of the conflict ................................................................................................. 51 Table of geopolitical indicators .................................................................................................. 62 Chronology of conflict .................................................................................................................. 63 Chapter three Lybia: trying to «tie up loose ends» of the revolution ............................................... 65 Emilio Sánchez de Rojas Díaz Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 65 Background to the conflict .......................................................................................................... 66 5 Page Current situation of the conflict ................................................................................................. 75 Conclusions .................................................................................................................................... 84 Table of geopolitical indicators .................................................................................................. 87 Chronology of conflict .................................................................................................................. 88 Chapter four The arab-israeli conflict. 100 years from the Balfour declaration ...................... 89 Federico Aznar Fernandez-Montesinos Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 90 Background to the conflict .......................................................................................................... 91 Current situation of the conflict ................................................................................................. 101 The role of external factors ........................................................................................................ 106 Conclusions and prospects ......................................................................................................... 113 Chronology...................................................................................................................................... 116 Chapter five Lebanon ......................................................................................................................................... 119 Jose Luis Cabello Rodríguez Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 120 Background to the conflict .......................................................................................................... 121 Current situation of the conflict ................................................................................................. 126 The role of external actors .......................................................................................................... 132 Conclusions and prospects ......................................................................................................... 133 Table of geopolitical indicators .................................................................................................. 134 Chronology of conflict .................................................................................................................. 135 Chapter six Syria: where everyone is at war with each other ........................................................ 137 Mario Laborie Iglesias Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 138 Background to the conflict .......................................................................................................... 139 Current situation of the war ........................................................................................................ 141 The role of the external actors ................................................................................................... 148 Conclusions and perspectives .................................................................................................... 155 Table of geopolitical indicators .................................................................................................. 156 Conflict timeline (sept 2015-sept 2016) ................................................................................... 156 Chapter seven The imminent defeat of the islamic state in Iraq ......................................................... 159 Francisco José Berenguer Hernández Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 160 Background to the conflict .......................................................................................................... 160 Current situation of the conflict ................................................................................................. 164 Role of external actors ................................................................................................................. 173 6 Page Conclusions and perspectives .................................................................................................... 176 Table of geopolitical indicators .................................................................................................. 178 Conflict timeline ............................................................................................................................ 178 Chapter eight Burkina Faso: post-crisis stabilization process .......................................................... 181 Juan Mora Tebas Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 181 Political and Historical Antecedents of Interest ..................................................................... 182 Current situation ........................................................................................................................... 185 The role of external actors .........................................................................................................
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