AI, now and future
Wei Xu Baidu
1 Baidu 1. Now 2. Future
2 Baidu AI wave
3 Baidu AI job market
AI Job opening change in China (%) Shares of US Jobs Requiring AI Skills Data source: zhaopin.com Data source: indeed.com Figure credit: zhaopin.com Figure credit: AI Index 2017 Annual Report
4 Baidu Driving forces for the recent AI progress
Big data 3.5 Computation power 3 Deep learning
2.5
2
1.5 Accuracy
1 Traditional ML Deep learning 0.5
0 Data size
5 Baidu Deep learning revolution
Shallow neural net Deep neural net
6 Baidu Speech recognition
Chinse speech recognition for voice search
10.0% E r r o 5.0% r
R 0.0% a t e
7 Baidu Image recognition
ImageNet classification error 0.3
0.25 First deep learning model
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Human 2015 2016 2017
8 Baidu Image recognition
Japanese cherry Sushi Ferrari California
Echeveria Mebina Mapo tofu Toyota land cruiser
9 Baidu Face recognition from parental faces
10 Baidu Face recognition across time - finding lost person
4 year old 10 year old
11 Baidu Generating faces
Karas et. al. 2018 12 Baidu Medical image analysis: skin cancer
Figure from Esteva et al.
13 Baidu Document analysis
Speech tech Baidu AI dev Theme tag Baidu held its first AI developer Theme tag conference conference Creating the most complete AI open Technology 0.93 Tech Topic tag eco-system AI 0.95
AI Autonomous Entity tag Jul. 5, Baidu AI developer conference driving (Baidu Create 2017) was held in Beijing Tesla national conference center. Baidu Topic tag announced its complete AI eco-system Baidu strategy to 5000 developers and partners. Baidu create 0.95 North HCI highway 5 Baidu founder, board president and CEO Robin Li said, “AI is the destined future, Entity tag openness will benefit more people. New Baidu 0.9 Developer energy AI L3 vehicle Robin Li 0.9 Apollo Qi Lu 0.9 DuerOS 0.75 Car industry L4 Lidar Apollo 0.7
Graph
14 Baidu Machine Translation
Text Conversation OCR translation translation translation
15 Baidu Simultaneous translation
16 Baidu Reading comprehension – single document The Stanford Question Answering Dataset
17 Baidu Reading comprehension: multi-document
Microsoft Machine Reading Comprehension Dataset (MS MARCO)
18 Baidu Board games
Google DeepMind: AlphaZero
19 Baidu AI applications at Baidu
20 Baidu What tasks are suitable for AI?
Criteria ✔ ✘ Well defined input-output mapping Predict loan default Summarize document Large data sets Predict ad click Detect intrusion Clearly definable goals and metrics Play board games Education No long chains of reasoning using Play video shooting Dialog diverse background knowledge or game common sense No need for detailed explanation Recognize character Diagnose disease A tolerance for error Recommend product Drive No specialized dexterity, physical Manufacturing robot Household robot skills, or mobility required for specific task
Brynjolfsson et. al. 2017
21 Baidu 1. Now 2. Future
22 Baidu Near term impact: more routine jobs will be automated
23 Baidu Near term impact: job displacement
Source: McKinsey
24 Baidu Occupations requiring higher levels of education and experience have lower automation potential
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; O*Net; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
25 Baidu Long term impact: human level intelligence
Muller et al, 2014
26 Baidu Long term impact: good or bad?
Muller et al, 2014
27 Baidu Thank you!
28 Baidu Thank you!
29 Baidu