Mali: an Endangered Peace by Taynja Abdel-Baghy and José Luengo-Cabrera

56 2015 Jerome De Jerome la y/AP/SIPA

Mali: an endangered peace by Taynja Abdel-Baghy and José Luengo-Cabrera

The 20 November attack at the Radisson Blu ho- Jihadist disruption tel in Bamako, which killed 21 people, reaffirmed that the terrorist threat in Mali is not confined to The overlapping claims of responsibility for the the central and northern provinces. The timing and Bamako attack by al-Mourabitoun and the Ansar target of the attack are indicative of a revived cam- Dine-affiliated Macina Liberation Front indicate a paign by jihadist terrorist groups to undermine the desire to prove operational capacity by both groups. stabilisation efforts in the country – almost three Even if the true identity of the perpetrators remains years after the launch of the French military mis- a matter of speculation, the readiness to take credit sion Operation Serval. for the attack can be seen as an effort by both to raise their respective profiles amid the expanding Amid stubbornly persistent insecurity, successfully presence of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant implementing the peace agreement signed on 20 (ISIL) in North Africa. June in the Malian capital remains a tall order. The truce struck in Anéfis last October between the Most importantly though, it serves to vindicate rebel coalitions signatory to the accord emanat- their fervent opposition to the continued presence ing from the Algiers process has, however, offered of external forces in Mali and the wider Sahel re- some respite after a series of territorial grabs and gion, which translates into efforts to obstruct in- ceasefire violations. ternational stabilisation initiatives by targeting foreigners. The fact that the attack was carried out But the delay in initiating an enforceable disarma- as the Algerian-led committee responsible for the ment, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) pro- implementation of the accord was due to meet in gramme has raised doubts over the credibility of the capital also points to an attempt to hamper the the warring parties’ commitment to the agreement’s peace process underway. security provisions. With past links to Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb Beyond demilitarisation and decentralisation, no (AQIM), the recurrent attacks carried out by al- durable peace can be envisaged without disman- Mourabitoun and Ansar Dine-affiliated groups tling the trafficking and patronage networks that demonstrate the fluidity of the jihadist landscape fuel terrorist and criminal activities alike. Achieving in the Sahel. As groups like the Movement for this – and thereby ensuring that yet another peace Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO) contin- process in Mali does not derail – will require the ue to operate in the Timbuktu region, al-Mourabi- upping of financial and military assistance by both toun and Ansar Dine have recently ambushed con- regional and international partners. voys and camps of the UN peacekeeping operation

European Union Institute for Security Studies December 2015 1 (MINUSMA) in Gao and Kidal, respectively. The coalitions have been exacerbated by the ceasefire continued spread of jihadist terrorist groups and violations and ensuing local clashes. Moreover, the resultant security vacuums throughout the acts of harassment against civilians perpetrated Malian territory have highlighted the need to step by national security forces and pro-government up international support. militias continue to reinforce a pervasive sense of acrimony and distrust, preventing reconciliation International support initiatives from taking root. With a wider remit than its Serval predecessor, Despite the deployment of 40 MINUSMA mili- the French Operation Barkhane is leading the in- tary observers to supervise the ceasefire and the ternational counter-terrorism efforts – and doing launch of violence-reduction projects to reduce so in close cooperation with the members of the communal tensions, the country’s pressing securi- Sahel G5 group (Chad, Mauritania, Mali, Niger ty and humanitarian needs are still not being met. and Burkina Faso). During the 20 November Civilians and security forces alike continue to fall N’Djamena summit, the regional grouping an- victim to armed attacks, and access to humanitar- nounced the creation of a joint force brigade. In ian services remains restricted at a time when an addition, they agreed on establishing a security estimated 3 million people suffer from food inse- and defence committee, principally mandated to curity and over 50,000 are internally displaced. coordinate regional counter-terrorism cooperation. Although these initiatives are unlikely to be- Meanwhile, the longstanding collusion between come operational in the immediate future, their militia leaders and corrupt officials in control of activation could be expedited as soon as financial trafficking networks remains an impediment to resources are made available through the recently the implementation of the disarmament process. launched EU Emergency Trust Fund for Africa, As long as the porosity of borders continues to fa- among others. cilitate the influx of arms and other contraband goods, the lucrative opportunities emanating from Notwithstanding progress on regional action, illicit commercial activities will act as disincen- bolstering the capacity of Malian security forces tives for combatants to engage in a prolonged and remains a strategic priority for international part- risky DDR programme. Even if the launch of joint ners. Despite the technical and material support observation and verification teams presents an provided by the EUTM and EUCAP Sahel Mali important trust-building mechanism for credibly missions, the national army and police are still disarming the warring parties, inadequate finan- heavily dependent on MINUSMA to address se- cial resources and poor enforcement procedures curity threats while largely reliant on French and may prove insufficient for the task at hand. American special operations to curb terrorist activities. Demilitarisation and decriminalisation remain basic prerequisites to move forward with peace International military assistance is expected to and reconciliation. In their absence, the much- gather pace following the activation of the EU awaited provisions of political devolution and de- mutual defence clause in the wake of the 13 velopment assistance to the north cannot be ef- November attacks in Paris, something which will fectively implemented. With the postponement of relieve French forces in the Sahel, as well as in regional and municipal elections in the wake of the Central African Republic and the Middle East. the Bamako attack, the urgent need to reinforce A number of EU countries, in particular, are ex- the administrative powers of northern regions has pected to raise their commitment in terms of de- been deferred. ployments and provision of equipment, as well as financial assistance. Indeed, the €3.2 billion com- As local populations become increasingly disgrun- mitment pledged by international donors at the tled with the poor provision of public services and 22 October OECD meeting in the French capital the lack of security, the protracted grievances that will be key to support the economic development have been at the source of Mali’s past conflicts are dimension of the peace accord, with €605 million at risk of rekindling. This raises the likelihood earmarked for the restive northern regions. of undoing the progress which has been made through the Algiers process. No peace without security Taynja Abdel-Baghy is a Junior Analyst and José Without further international support, the pros- Luengo-Cabrera an Associate Analyst at the pects of maintaining a durable peace remain grim. EUISS. Existing divisions between supporters of the rebel

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