The ARK Group is a network of stabilisation and conflict transformation The Syrian conflict: consultancies that provides research- KDF Documents informed analysis and policy recommendations, as well as evidence- A systems conflict analysis based interventions in conflict-affected states on behalf of public and private sector clients. Working with and through local communities, we seek to understand and then mitigate the negative effects of conflict and instability to enhance community safety and promote human security, development and economic opportunity. Cover © Lens of a Young Damascene Back-cover © Lens of a Young Damascene ARK Group DMCC February 2016 The Syrian conflict: A systems conflict analysis ARK Group DMCC February 2016 ARK is a consultancy company specialising in the provision of policy-relevant research and the design and management of conflict prevention and transforma- tion programmes to prevent and mitigate instability and promote positive social change and development. For more information about ARK or this paper, please contact:
[email protected]. Copyright © 2016 ARK GROUP DMCC CONTENTS 4 Acronyms 5 Acknowledgements 6 Executive summary 8 Introduction 8 Understanding the Syrian conflict 10 Analytical framework and report structure 11 What is a systems conflict analysis? 11 How to read this report 3 12 Brief contextual overview 16 Stakeholders analysis: conflict actors and interests 16 Local stakeholders: pro-regime 19 Local stakeholders: pro-opposition 22 Local stakeholders: the Islamic State in Iraq and the