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EMFAC2017 Volume III - Technical Documentation

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EMFAC2017 Volume III - Technical Documentation EMFAC2017 Volume III - Technical Documentation V1.0.2 July 20, 2018 Mobile Source Analysis Branch Air Quality Planning & Science Division California Air Resources Board Page 1 CONTENTS 1. Executive Summary ........................................................................................................ 15 1.1. Overview ..................................................................................................................... 15 1.2. Structure of This Document ......................................................................................... 15 1.3. New Features .............................................................................................................. 16 1.4. Overview of Changes Associated with this Update ..................................................... 16 Fleet Characterization ............................................................................................. 16 In-Use Emissions .................................................................................................... 17 Activity ..................................................................................................................... 19 Socio-Econometric Forecasting .............................................................................. 20 Regulations and Policies ......................................................................................... 20 2. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 22 2.1. EMFAC2017 ................................................................................................................ 22 2.2. Modeling Architecture .................................................................................................. 23 2.3. Major Updates ............................................................................................................. 24 2.4. Accessing Data through Web Database ..................................................................... 26 3. New Modules in EMFAC2017 ......................................................................................... 28 3.1. The Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Module ......................................................................... 28 Background and Overview ...................................................................................... 28 Data Sources ........................................................................................................... 28 CO2 Estimation: A Fuel Based Approach ................................................................ 29 CH4 Estimation ........................................................................................................ 30 N2O Estimation ........................................................................................................ 31 CO2 Equivalent (CO2e) ............................................................................................ 32 Programming Implementation ................................................................................. 32 Updates to LD Fuel Efficiency (Historical and Forecast) ......................................... 33 3.2. The Transit Bus Module .............................................................................................. 37 Background ............................................................................................................. 37 Formulation of the Transit Bus Module ................................................................... 38 Methodology ............................................................................................................ 39 3.3. The Natural Gas Module ............................................................................................. 41 Basics ...................................................................................................................... 41 Methodology ............................................................................................................ 41 California Air Resources Board Page 2 4. Methodology Update ....................................................................................................... 43 4.1. Introduction.................................................................................................................. 43 4.2. Fleet Characteristics .................................................................................................... 43 Basics ...................................................................................................................... 43 Updates to LD Fleet Characteristics ........................................................................ 44 Updates to HD Fleet Characterization ..................................................................... 53 4.3. Emission Rates ........................................................................................................... 73 Updates to LD Emission Rates ............................................................................... 73 Updates to HD Emission Rates ............................................................................. 142 Regulatory Impact ................................................................................................. 162 4.4. Activity Profiles .......................................................................................................... 169 Updates to LDV Activity Profiles ............................................................................ 169 Updates to HDV Activity ........................................................................................ 178 Update to VMT Spatial Allocation .......................................................................... 186 4.5. Forecasting................................................................................................................ 186 Update on Forecasting Statewide New LDV Sales ............................................... 186 Update on Forecasting Light Duty VMT ................................................................ 188 Updates on Forecasting Heavy Duty Vehicle VMT ............................................... 189 Forecasting ZEV Population .................................................................................. 193 5. Emissions Impact .......................................................................................................... 195 5.1. Basics ........................................................................................................................ 195 Vehicle Population ................................................................................................. 195 VMT ....................................................................................................................... 196 Emissions .............................................................................................................. 197 Fuel Consumptions ............................................................................................... 200 6. Appendices ................................................................................................................... 202 6.1. Vehicle Class Categorization .................................................................................... 202 6.2. Exhaust Technology Groups ..................................................................................... 204 6.3. Natural Gas Heavy Duty Truck Penetration .............................................................. 215 6.4. LA 92 Cycle ............................................................................................................... 218 6.5. Emission Test Data from CARB Truck and Bus Surveillance Program .................... 221 6.6. Emission Test Date from EMA/UCR and CARB Testing Project .............................. 225 6.7. Speed Correction Factors for Heavy-Duty Diesel Trucks .......................................... 226 California Air Resources Board Page 3 6.8. Idle Emission Rates of Four HD Trucks Tested Using PEMS ................................... 228 6.9. Idle Emission Rates from Texas Transportation Institute PEMS Tests ..................... 228 6.10. Start NOx Emission Rates for Different Soak Time (G/Start) .................................... 229 6.11. Diesel Transit Bus Emission Test Data (G/MI) .......................................................... 229 6.12. CNG Transit Bus Emission Test Data ....................................................................... 231 6.13. Emission Data from CARB Cross California PEMS Testing of CNG Transit Bus ..... 232 6.14. LD and HD Activity Profile ......................................................................................... 233 6.15. Light Duty VMT Spatial Allocation ............................................................................. 238 6.16. Regional Comparison between EMFAC2017 AND EMFAC2014 ............................. 242 California Air Resources Board Page 4 LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES Figure 2.1-1. EMFAC2017 Overall Flow .................................................................................... 23 Figure 3.1-1: FTP Composite emission rates of CH4 and THC exhaust from gasoline LDVs .... 30 Figure 3.1-2: FTP Composite emission rates of N2O and NOx from gasoline vehicles ............. 31 Figure 3.1-3: A diagram illustrating steps involved in obtaining fuel efficiency (MPG) data for DMV vehicle records using Polk/IHS VINtelligence service and FuelEconomy.Gov
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