Asia Observatory

ASIA OBSERVATORY

BAO-12/2019(16)

March 18-24, 2019

Bosphorus Center for Asian Studies

Ankara 2019

2019 © All Rights Reserved. No part of this piece may be reproduced, copied or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or printed, without the permission of BAAM. The views expressed in this piece are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect our stance or policy.

2019 © Tüm Hakları Saklıdır. BAAM’ın izni alınmadan kısmen veya tamamen elektronik veya basılı olarak çoğaltılamaz, dağıtılamaz ve yayınlanamaz. Yazıda belirtilen görüşler yazara aittir ve BAAM’ın görüşlerini yansıtmak zorunda değildir.

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Bosphorus Center for Asian Studies

Bosphorus Center for Asian Studies (BAAM), founded in April 2018 in Ankara, is an independent think tank operating as an initiative of the Bosphorus Association for Social Research (BOSAR). In addition to Ankara and Istanbul, there are a total of 20 researchers who make contributions from different countries. BAAM is conducting research on the Asian region, mainly the Far East. Major areas of our studies include Asian Politics, Belt and Road Initiative, Great Power Competition, Foreign Policy of China, Political Economy of Asia Pacific Region, and the Turkey- Asia relations.

The reports, briefings, opinions, translations and special news prepared by BAAM researchers are published on bogaziciasya.com and the weekly Asian Observatory bulletin which is shared with related individuals and organizations via Internet.

Among the languages that the researchers in the team are able to read and write are French, Italian, Japanese and Amharic as well as English and Chinese. In this way, local resources can be used in research and a wide perspective is provided. The multi-lingual and heterogeneous structure brings together rich perspectives through in-team exchanges.

Our studies are also published by SETAV, Bosphorus Migration Studies, The New Turkey E- Magazine, Journal of Dunya, Yildirim Beyazit University Center for Migration Research and Theory in Turkey, and by the Istituto Affari Internazionali in Italy.

From Director

Hello from the 16th issue of the Asia Observatory,

Last week we had the opportunity to visit the Korean Cultural Center in Ankara. Republic of Korea, Embassy of the Republic of Turkey Culture Undersecretary. Our delegation met with Dong-Woo Choo, the Counsellor at the Embassy. In the coming period, we will increase the number of economic, political and cultural studies on Korea.

We are preparing the Asia Observatory as well as the Silk Road and Asian Economy bulletins. These publications, which will be shared with the individuals and organizations interested in the subject, will be a first step in Turkey

I greet our readers on behalf my esteemed team and wish you pleasant readings. See you at the next Observatory.

I wish you enjoyable readings.

Kind regards

Mehmet Enes BEŞER Chairman @BOSAR & Director @BAAM

From the Editor

This week's most important development was undoubtedly the Italy’s signing of a Memorandum of Understanding with China to participate in Belt and Road Initiative. In spite of the objections of the US and the leading states of the European Union, Italy has taken this step with economic incentives. This development was described by an analogy of seizure of the beachead in the amphibious operation. According to this, China has seized the beachead in Western Europe and this is just the beginning.

This is undoubtedly a serious damage to the United States in the Great Power Competition. In this context, Gen. Joe Dunford said China and Russia are striving “to establish pre-eminence, if not hegemony, in their respective geographic areas and both trying to assert greater influence on the world stage.” From the military’s perspective, China and Russia are doing what they can to challenge the U.S. and are targeting American capabilities, Dunford said. This means the two nations are working to subvert America’s network of allies and partners and are seeking to negate the American military’s ability to project forces when and where needed and sustain them, he said. In Europe, this means subverting the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Dunford said. In the Pacific, this means working to undermine U.S. treaties with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, Australia and New Zealand, he said.

Another development took place at this point: the US’s instrumentalization of NATO in the Great Power Competition. The Trump administration has made it clear that NATO shall address potential threats from China in its day-to-day work in Brussels and at an upcoming meeting of foreign ministers in Washington next month,

The Asia Observatory contains many analyzes, news and commentaries to make sure you catch the busy Asian agenda this week as well as every week. Wish you have a good read…

Haşim TÜRKER, Ph.D. Academic Coordinator @BAAM

Editorial Board

Mehmet Enes Beşer (Director)

Haşim Türker, Ph.D. (Academic Coordinator, Senior Researcher)

Rukiye Ünal (Senior Researcher)

Nazmul İslam (Senior Researcher)

İrem Songül Alagöz (Researcher)

Kübranur Korkmaz (Researcher)

Esra Eymen Cansu (Researcher)

Mustafa Aydoğan (Researcher)

Murat Can Yazılı (Researcher)

Abdullah Dumangöz (Researcher)

Mert Karakadılar (Researcher)

Nesibe Gül Kılıç (Researcher)

Merve Çelenk (Researcher)

Ebru Alagöz (Researcher)

Gözde Söğütlü (Researcher)

Kübra Merve Topgül (Intern)

Safiye Ergun (Intern)

Emre İgret (Intern)

Ahmet Fatih Yıldırım (Intern)

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Headline of the Week ...... 9

Great Power Competition ...... 10 Gary Cohn says Trump is ‘desperate’ for trade deal with China ...... 10 Sino-U.S. rivalry raises tough choices for allies ...... 10 Japan and U.S. to develop new radar system for Aegis warships ...... 11 EU dilemma: how to deal with China ...... 11 How China hit a roadblock on its way to central and eastern Europe ...... 12 What we get wrong when we talk about Asia ...... 12 China rejects 'abnormal' U.S. spying concerns as EU pushes trade ...... 13 China steps up efforts to develop military technology to challenge US dominance ...... 13 Mr Xi’s European Tour Is Response to US-China Rift ...... 14 Shutting the gates of academia: American universities cut ties to Huawei and Confucius Institute...... 14 European foreign policy: a new realism on China ...... 15 Trump Wants NATO’s Eyes on China ...... 15 China and the US are locked in a crucial battle for space domination ...... 16 Contested Spaces ...... 16 China calls on US to block Taiwan president's stop in Hawaii ...... 17 Royal Navy to send a carrier group in the South China Sea in 2021 ...... 17 Inside China’s Plan for Global Supremacy ...... 18 Where progress with China is most likely—and where it isn’t ...... 19 EU to drop threat of Huawei ban but wants 5G risks monitored ...... 19 U.S. could reduce intelligence sharing with Israel due to China ties...... 20 Dunford Describes U.S. Great Power Competition with Russia, China ...... 20 Belt and Road Initiative ...... 21 China and Europe on the path of expanding Belt and Road cooperation ...... 21 B&R industrial parks yield remarkable achievements: Report ...... 21 Italian BRI decision echoes UK move on AIIB ...... 22 What to Know About China's Controversial Belt and Road Initiative That's Targeting Europe ...... 22 China Finds a G-7 Ally for Belt and Road ...... 23 Will China’s ‘Silk Road’ lead to Rome? Italy’s BRI drama ...... 23 India signals to boycott China's Belt and Road Forum for 2nd time...... 24

Implications for Africa from China’s One Belt One Road Strategy ...... 24 Italy becomes first Western European power to sign up for China’s belt and road plan ...... 25 China's beachhead in Europe ...... 25 After Italy, one another Europe Country Considering to Join “One Belt, One Road” Project ..... 26 Chinese Policy ...... 27 For Africa, Chinese-Built Internet Is Better Than No Internet at All ...... 27 China to give US$989 million loan to Sri Lanka for major new motorway project ...... 27 Political Economy...... 28 China's Unemployment Rate Rises in February ...... 28 European counters of China ...... 28 Ghana airline is close to an order for Comac’s ARJ21 regional jet ...... 29 China's slowdown is 'self-inflicted,' not caused by Trump's tariffs ...... 29 Until Now, None of European Countries Haven’t Banned Huawei ...... 30 Asian Agenda...... 31 China-ASEAN Expo to be held in late September ...... 31 Vietnam protests to China over South China Sea boat sinking ...... 31 Korean Problem...... 32 Trump-Kim summit: Vietnam aiming to cash in on 'valuable' event...... 32 North Korea: 10 Major Diplomats Return to Pyongyang ...... 32 North Korea quits liaison office in setback for South after new U.S. sanctions ...... 33 South Asian Insight ...... 34 Pakistan speaks brotherhood but sends terrorists: Afghanistan ...... 34 China, Pakistan Vow to Strengthen Counter-Terrorism Cooperation...... 34 Pakistan government believes USD 11 billion stashed abroad by Pakistanis...... 35 Guns and Tourists: Aboard the unlikely India-Pakistan 'Friendship Bus' ...... 35 Afghanistan ...... 36 Afghanistan conflict: Two US soldiers killed on operation ...... 36 Afghan War casualty report: March 15-21 ...... 36 Abu Dhabi crown prince “proposed killing Taliban leaders”: report ...... 37 Miscellaneous ...... 38 New Zealand attacks: Debates over gun control ...... 38 Russia Claims Total Military Superiority in the Arctic ...... 38 China’s Pursuit of Semiconductor Independence ...... 39 Jacinda Ardern Has Rewritten the Script for How a Nation Grieves After a Terrorist Attack ... 39

Headline of the Week

Trump Wants NATO’s Eyes on China

For months, the administration has been working to persuade Europeans to rebuff Chinese investment in the continent’s critical infrastructure and telecommunications networks. The campaign has received a lukewarm reception in some parts of Europe, where U.S. allies are already troubled by the U.S.-China trade war and President Donald Trump’s hostile jabs at the European Union and NATO.

While many Europeans view China as a potential challenge to the West, some are skeptical that NATO, oriented toward deterring Russia and still engaged in the yearslong fight in Afghanistan, is the best forum to address the threat. China has never before been a key conversation topic in the alliance.

Reference: Foreign Policy

Great Power Competition

Gary Cohn says Trump is ‘desperate’ for trade deal with China

Gary Cohn, President Trump’s former top economic adviser, says the president is “desperate” to reach a trade deal with China and is being ill-served by protectionist advisers who have left the White House “living in chaos” on major decisions. “The president needs a win,” Cohn said in an interview with Freakonomics, a public radio show and podcast.

(The Washingon Post: News)

Sino-U.S. rivalry raises tough choices for allies

Growing U.S. pressure for its allies to ban Huawei’s 5G technology will place many countries in awkward positions vis-a-vis their bilateral relations with China. Worse still, like the NAFTA 2.0 agreement, the U.S. may insert clauses in agreements requiring partners to ban Huawei technology or other Chinese technology giants from their economies.

(Japan Times: Commentary)

Japan and U.S. to develop new radar system for Aegis warships

Japan and the United States are working toward the joint development of a new radar system for Aegis-equipped U.S. Navy warships, as part of efforts to improve defense capabilities. The coordination by the two countries for the plan aimed at combating new weapons, including hypersonic missiles being developed by China and Russia, has entered the final phase. The new radar system to provide 360 degrees of surveillance on the warships is expected to be the next pillar of Japan’s defense collaboration with the United States.

(Japan Times: News)

EU dilemma: how to deal with China

Facing China’s irresistible rise all across the chessboard, and under relentless US pressure, the not exactly democratic EU leadership is on a backbreaking exercise to position itself between a geopolitical/geoeconomic rock and a hard place. The 28-member EU holds a crucial meeting next week in Brussels where it may adopt a 10-point action plan detailing, in a thesis, the terms of an equitable economic relationship with China going forward. This will happen as Chinese President Xi Jinping visits Italy and then France – ahead of the very important, annual China-EU summit in Brussels on April 9, to be co-chaired by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang.

(Asia Times: Commentary)

How China hit a roadblock on its way to central and eastern Europe

China-CEEC, better known as the “16+1” initiative, was established in 2012 when then Chinese premier Wen Jiabao visited the Polish capital of Warsaw to expand investment and build more roads and railways between China and the region, which Beijing sees as a road eventually to Europe. Its membership includes 11 EU member states – Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia and Slovenia – and five aspiring EU member states from the Western Balkans: Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania and North Macedonia. The 16+1 initiative was supposed to boost trade and investment between the participants but so far it seems largely one-way, observers say. Growing tensions between EU and China also casting a shadow over April summit in Croatia.

(SCMP: Commentary)

What we get wrong when we talk about Asia

In case you haven't been paying attention, the geopolitical and economic future of the world increasingly belongs to Asia. With America retreating into itself, and Europe becoming more politically fractured than it has been in decades, it's the megacontinent that is taking the lead. So we should probably rethink how we talk about Asia.

(The Big Story: Analysis)

China rejects 'abnormal' U.S. spying concerns as EU pushes trade

China dismissed U.S. security warnings against its telecoms equipment maker Huawei as groundless and "abnormal" on Monday, as the Chinese government's top diplomat went to Brussels to cool growing European frustration over trade. In a veiled reference to Huawei Technologies Co., which the United States says could spy on the West, Chinese State Councillor Wang Yi told Washington to stop its attempts to "bring down" the company.

(Reuters: Article)

China steps up efforts to develop military technology to challenge US dominance

New US military budget focused on China despite border talk To a remarkable degree, the 2020 Pentagon budget proposal is shaped by national security threats that acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan has summarized in three words: "China, China, China." The U.S. is still fighting small wars against Islamic extremists, and Russia remains a serious concern, but Shanahan seeks to shift the military's main focus to what he considers the more pressing security problem of a rapidly growing Chinese military.

(WRAL: News)

Mr Xi’s European Tour Is Response to US-China Rift

Italy is in the middle of a deep recession, run by a complex coalition of populist, headline-grabbing political parties. Rome recently attracted media attention as one of its ruling factions, the Five Star movement, succeeded in getting the government to sign on to Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Although the decision has brought a lot of confusion and could backfire, with possible setbacks from other Western powers, President Xi is expected to finalize a BRI Memorandum of Understanding during his official visit on March 22-23. Beijing also sees Italy as a priority for its Maritime Silk Road, considered vital to China’s ever-growing wealth maritime strategy, including greater access to Northern European markets. After acquiring a 51% state in the Greek port of Piraeus in 2016, China has bought positions in the ports of Venice and Genoa and is expected to strike a similar deal with the city of Trieste. Italy ranks number three in the EU when it comes to Chinese investment. Meanwhile, Rome runs a €16 billion trade deficit with Beijing.

(Carnegie: Analysis)

Shutting the gates of academia: American universities cut ties to Huawei and Confucius Institute

As US government efforts to restrict American academia’s ties to two Chinese organisations gather steam, many of the country’s best schools have done just that. Huawei Technologies, the private global Chinese tech giant, and Confucius Institute, a Beijing-linked body that promotes China’s language and culture, have been targeted by US lawmakers and numerous federal departments for very different reasons, but the American government believes both undermine its interests.

(SCMP: News)

European foreign policy: a new realism on China

Tiananmen Square had largely been one of attempting to reap benefits of the country’s rapid growth. Although the arms embargo remains in place and Brussels has made criticisms of Beijing on human rights grounds, business has been the priority. The EU is China’s largest trading partner; China is the EU’s second-largest, behind the US. In 2018, China accounted for about a fifth of EU goods imports and more than a tenth of its exports.

(Financial Times: Analysis)

Trump Wants NATO’s Eyes on China

The Trump administration is pushing NATO to address potential threats from China in its day-to-day work in Brussels and at an upcoming meeting of foreign ministers in Washington next month, U.S. and European officials say. The move is part of a shift in American priorities away from fighting Islamist terrorists and toward a so-called era of great power competition. For months, the administration has been working to persuade Europeans to rebuff Chinese investment in the continent’s critical infrastructure and telecommunications networks. The campaign has received a lukewarm reception in some parts of Europe, where U.S. allies are already troubled by the U.S.-China trade war and President Donald Trump’s hostile jabs at the European Union and NATO. While many Europeans view China as a potential challenge to the West, some are skeptical that NATO, oriented toward deterring Russia and still engaged in the yearslong fight in Afghanistan, is the best forum to address the threat. China has never before been a key conversation topic in the alliance.

(Foreign Policy: Report)

China and the US are locked in a crucial battle for space domination

Fifty years after the first moon landing, an American triumph that gripped the world, China marked the start of 2019 with its own lunar achievement. Chang’e-4, a Chinese probe, landed on the far side of the moon in early January, broadcasting – for the first time in human history – images of the cratered surface that faces away from Earth. Chang’e-4 has been billed as a friendly explorer, the latest step in humanity’s mission to better understand and exploit the universe around us. But space exploration has always been about power. Beijing’s lunar feat represents the latest development in the space race between China and the United States.

(Wired: Article)

Contested Spaces

As the competition between the United States and China to shape the course of the 21st century intensifies, Southeast Asia has become a contested space. A region where geopolitical orientations remain fluid, Southeast Asia lies at the front line of Beijing’s expanding diplomatic influence, economic leverage, and military capability. At stake is whether countries across the region can retain their economic sovereignty and freedom of decision, and whether governance in the region will broadly trend toward greater freedom and openness, or the opposite.

(CNAS: Report)

China calls on US to block Taiwan president's stop in Hawaii

The Chinese government is calling on the United States to bar Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen from stopping in Hawaii next week as part of her tour of the Pacific, according to Reuters. "We have consistently and resolutely opposed the United States or other countries which have diplomatic relations with China arranging this kind of transit," Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told reporters in Beijing, the news service reported. Tsai is reportedly scheduled to stop in Hawaii on her way back to Taiwan after an eight- day visit to Nauru, the Marshall Islands and Palau.

(The Hill: Blog)

Royal Navy to send a carrier group in the South China Sea in 2021

The Royal Navy may have plans to task its aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth, leading a strike-force that will include the aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales, some Type 45 destroyers and the next generation of Type 26 frigate fleet, to enforce maritime law in the South China Sea. During this operation in 2021, the strike-force lead by the HMS Queen Elizabeth would go through the Mediterranean Sea, the Middle-East and the Pacific Ocean. Whitehall defense boss Gavin Williamson also considers using the carrier group to enforce maritime law in the South China Sea during this operation. The Government insists Queen Elizabeth's deployment is not an opportunity to 'antagonise' the Chinese.

(Navy Recognition: News)

Inside China’s Plan for Global Supremacy

The trouble is that we have trouble admitting to ourselves that China might best us. We’ve told ourselves for years that the Chinese don’t invent but only steal technology, and that a state-directed system can’t possibly compete with our free enterprise model. We forget that Russia gave us a run for our money during the Cold War. In the late 1970s, all the clever people from Henry Kissinger to Helmut Schmidt thought that Russia would win the Cold War, and it took the improbable election of a B-movie actor as president of the United States to prove them wrong. And if the Russian leadership was a gang of corrupt drunks, the Chinese ruling caste is cherry picked from the top 10th of a percent of scorers on college entrance exams. The Chinese Communist Party has plenty of its own problems, but the presence of stupid people in leadership roles isn’t one of them.

(Tablet Mag: Analysis)

Where progress with China is most likely—and where it isn’t

The beginning of China’s rise as a global power can be dated to the country’s accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001. Throughout the next 16 years of the Bush and Obama administrations, the United States engaged in intensive bilateral diplomacy with China with the aim of getting ever-greater Chinese support on issues ranging from security to the economy to the environment. The Bush administration launched a Strategic Economic Dialogue with China, and a separate Security Dialogue. President Obama combined these into a single Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED). But the change in form was not important; the dialogues represented a continuous effort to draw China into the global system.

In three areas, China’s actions have gone beyond what reasonably could have been expected: currency and global imbalances, climate change, and nuclear non- proliferation (especially regarding Iran and North Korea) In two areas, the outcomes are about what should have been expected: intellectual property rights protection and development assistance; and On three issues, China has failed to do what we want: market access, militarization of the South China Sea, and democracy and human rights.

(Brookings: Blog)

EU to drop threat of Huawei ban but wants 5G risks monitored

The European Commission is ignoring U.S. calls to ban Huawei Technologies. The European Commission will next week urge EU countries to share more data to tackle cybersecurity risks related to 5G networks. Besides the Huawei issue, the bloc also plans to discuss Chinese subsidies, state involvement in the Chinese economy and more access to the Chinese market at an EU-China summit.

(CNBC: News)

U.S. could reduce intelligence sharing with Israel due to China ties

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told that if Israel does not limit its ties with China, the U.S. could reduce intelligence sharing and security cooperation. The U.S. has raised the topic of Chinese influence with Israel several times in the last months, but this is the most public stance that the Trump administration has taken on the issue. In the last few years, Prime Minister Netanyahu has led a diplomatic initiative to dramatically enhance trade with China. China has won several big infrastructure contracts in Israel, including one for a new sea port in Haifa — where the U.S. Navy currently operates.

(AXIOS: News)

Dunford Describes U.S. Great Power Competition with Russia, China

Marine Corps Gen. Joe Dunford said China and Russia are striving “to establish pre- eminence, if not hegemony, in their respective geographic areas and both trying to assert greater influence on the world stage.” The chairman spoke with CNN reporter Barbara Starr. From the military’s perspective, China and Russia are doing what they can to challenge the U.S. and are targeting American capabilities, Dunford said. This means the two nations are working to subvert America’s network of allies and partners and are seeking to negate the American military’s ability to project forces when and where needed and sustain them, he said. In Europe, this means subverting the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Dunford said. In the Pacific, this means working to undermine U.S. treaties with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, Australia and New Zealand, he said.

(JCS: News)

Belt and Road Initiative

China and Europe on the path of expanding Belt and Road cooperation

Following the principle of consultation and collaboration for shared benefits, the BRI is increasingly embraced by European countries and people. Therewithal, the BRI cooperation has been playing an increasingly important role in deepening China-EU comprehensive strategic partnership and it has been bringing tangible benefits to both Europe and China. Gradually growing into an iconic brand in Europe, China Railway Express, which connects 59 Chinese cities with 49 European cities in 15 countries. Besides, while guiding European companies' to growing businesses in China, the BRI also directly leads to new investments and jobs in Europe.

(Xinhua: News)

B&R industrial parks yield remarkable achievements: Report

Construction of overseas industrial parks creates strong momentum for cooperation under the Belt & Road Initiative, according to a report of the China Economic Information Service. The report mentioned the China-Belarus Industrial Park, China- Malaysia "Two Double-Park" and China-Egypt Suez Economic and Trade Cooperation Zone as role models in cooperation between China and other B&R countries. It also added China has built a series of overseas agricultural cooperation zones in Central Asia, South Asia and Africa to help local farmers with their production activities.

(Xinhua: News)

Italian BRI decision echoes UK move on AIIB

It was reported on Thursday that, after its decision to endorse China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Italy is looking at borrowing from the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). The move is controversial not just among Italy’s fellow Group of Seven and European Union member countries, but also domestically, within Rome.

(Asia Times: Article)

What to Know About China's Controversial Belt and Road Initiative That's Targeting Europe

China’s Belt and Road initiative, which aims to build new trade routes over land and sea, may soon extend further into Europe. And it’s splitting opinion in the European Union, with some countries seeing opportunity and others seeing only Chinese expansionism. Here’s a quick guide to what Belt and Road entails, why it’s proving so divisive, and why it might be about to face one of its biggest challenges yet.

(Fortune: Article)

China Finds a G-7 Ally for Belt and Road

The trading relationship between Italy and China goes back a long time. In the 13th century, Marco Polo, a Venetian merchant and explorer, was the first European to leave a detailed chronicle of his experience in the Far East. For centuries, precious fabrics traveled on the Silk Road from China to the Italian cities of Venice and Lucca, where they were transformed into luxury garments. So it’s not entirely shocking (at least from a historical perspective) that Italy might become the first major western economy to sign up to the Belt and Road initiative, the controversial Chinese infrastructure program aimed at improving the links between Asia, Europe and Africa.

(Bloomberg: Opinion)

Will China’s ‘Silk Road’ lead to Rome? Italy’s BRI drama

For China, an Italian signature of a BRI MoU would be significant, as it would give Xi Jinping and his pet project a huge legitimacy boost, by officially getting on board a G7 member, EU founder and 3rd largest economy of the Eurozone. As BRI has been struggling with some backlash internationally, Italy’s signature would help the initiative’s reputation. It would also allow Xi Jinping to show China’s public domestically that he and his initiative enjoy a great reputation in Europe and the world.

(SOAS: Blog)

India signals to boycott China's Belt and Road Forum for 2nd time

India on Wednesday signalled that it will boycott China's second Belt and Road Forum for a second time, saying no country can participate in an initiative that ignores its core concerns on sovereignty and territorial integrity.

(Times of India: News)

Implications for Africa from China’s One Belt One Road Strategy

One Belt One Road also increases Beijing’s control of critical global supply chains and its ability to redirect the flow of international trade. Central to these efforts are moves to open new sea lines of communication and expand China’s strategic port access around the world. China’s return on investment from increased port access and supply chains is not all about economics. In five cases—Djibouti, Walvis Bay (Namibia), Gwadar (Pakistan), Hambantota (Sri Lanka), and Piraeus (Greece)—China’s port investments have been followed by regular People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy deployments and strengthened military agreements. In this way, financial investments have been turned into geostrategic returns.

(Africa Center: Analysis)

Italy becomes first Western European power to sign up for China’s belt and road plan

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte and Chinese President Xi Jinping witness signing of memorandum of understanding in Rome. Two sides sign more than two dozen other agreements ranging from port management to natural gas and steel.

(SCMP: News)

China's beachhead in Europe

For six years, the U.S. and Europe have been fixated on Russia as their gravest geopolitical threat — all while China has been building up its massive global infrastructure project known as One Belt, One Road. Now, Beijing and its commercial aims seem much more of a menace. China is about to have the commercial equivalent of a beachhead in the heart of Europe, when Chinese President Xi Jinping and Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte sign a Belt and Road accord in Rome. With the accord, Beijing obtains access to the ports of Trieste and Genoa, which will be the staging point for Chinese products to go by railroad and truck across the continent.

(AXIOS: Analysis)

After Italy, one another Europe Country Considering to Join “One Belt, One Road” Project

Malta also considering to join “One Belt, One Road” project. Malta’s Minister of Treasury said: “We cannot deny a good trade opportunity because of prejudges.” In reference article published on 13 March, Taiwan media reported: after Italy, one another Europe country likely to consider joining “One Belt, One Road” project. According to Taiwan refence news published article, a small Mediterranean Sea county Malta’s Minister of Treasury Edwar Scicluna said: “Country, especially a small county if want to survive and want competitive power, need to diversity.” He admits that joining “One Belt, One Road” project still a new topic and said: “Country shouldn’t provoke dispute, absolutely shouldn’t, but as a sovereign country, we must consider what is beneficial to us and what are our priorities.” This report earlier this month pointed that Italy -Euro area’s the third biggest country- has interest to join this program.

(Sina: News)

Chinese Policy

For Africa, Chinese-Built Internet Is Better Than No Internet at All

The Chinese telecommunications company Huawei has made huge inroads in Africa in recent years even as the United States urges its allies around the world to avoid working with the firm over cybersecurity concerns. Huawei has built about 70 percent of the continent’s 4G networks, vastly outpacing European rivals, according to Cobus van Staden, a senior China-Africa researcher at the South African Institute of International Affairs. The construction is often accompanied by loans from Chinese state banks, which are approved faster and with fewer conditions than loans from international institutions.

(Foreign Policy: Article)

China to give US$989 million loan to Sri Lanka for major new motorway project

China has agreed to provide a loan of US$989 million to Sri Lanka to build an motorway that will connect the island nation’s tea-growing central region to a China-run seaport on the southern coast, the island’s finance ministry said Friday. The motorway will create “an uninterrupted connectivity” among Hambantota district towns with the China-run port, an airport near Colombo, and Kandy in the central region, where the famed Ceylon tea grows.

(SCMP: News)

Political Economy

China's Unemployment Rate Rises in February

Despite a gloomy employment outlook since late last year, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Thursday the overall labor situation has “stabilized." The surveyed urban unemployment rate in February was 5.3%, lower than the target set for this year of "around 5.5%", but higher than December's 4.9%. This was also the highest rate since February 2017, according to NBS figures compiled by data provider CEIC.

(Caixin: News)

European counters of China

Today, the cards are reversed. It is China that sets up its counters in Europe, on land and by sea, as part of the vast project called the New Silk Road. To date, thirteen European countries have already signed a protocol with Beijing to participate in this project. Portugal, Malta and Greece, and almost all the countries of ancient Eastern Europe. Two others are in negotiation: Luxembourg and Italy. On Friday, President Xi Jinping will be in Rome for a European visit which will also take him to France. With the Italian government, fifty commercial agreements must be signed. Beijing has a particular eye on the ports of Genoa, Trieste and Venice. It's a little Marco Polo upside down. Commercial power reversed. In Italy, the subject is a source of intense tension within the government. The League, heavily trumpeted by Washington, now questions the sensitive aspects of the MoU that Xi will sign next Friday, after the assets yet prepared with the 5 Stars Movement. Italy, pulling populist and in need of cash, would be the fourteenth country to sign, the first of the G7.

(Ouest-France: Editorial)

Ghana airline is close to an order for Comac’s ARJ21 regional jet

Chinese planemaker Comac is nearing an order from an airline in Ghana, a rare advance overseas for the state-owned company as it attempts to become a real challenger to Boeing and Airbus. Africa World Airlines, partly owned by China’s HNA Group may agree this month to buy two Comac ARJ21 regional jets, the carrier’s chief executive officer, John Quan, said in an interview.

(SCMP: News)

China's slowdown is 'self-inflicted,' not caused by Trump's tariffs

China's economic growth is slowing down, but that's mostly "self-inflicted" due to the country's deleveraging campaign and not caused by U.S. tariffs, said Stephen Roach, a senior fellow at Yale University. Roach said the U.S. and China will likely reach a deal, eventually, but the agreement would be "superficial" with a focus on reducing the trade imbalance between the two countries.

(CNBC: Analysis)

Until Now, None of European Countries Haven’t Banned Huawei

According to news that US media reported on 22 March, last summer Trump administration launched an offensive attack which try to persuade the European allies to ban Huawei’s any equipments. And America threaten Europe countries if they ignore America’s suggestions, American goverment will cut off their intelligent services with them. The pressure has been going on for several months. In February, for represent United States sended a team to World Mobile Conference in Barcelona, in which will be displayed that year’s best industrial products, also forced their managers and politicians to don’t use Huawei equipments or any other Chinese equipments. This month, US Berlin ambbassador wrote a latter to German goverment saying that Huawei should be banned, otherwise intelligence sharing with the US may be affected.

(Sina: News)

Asian Agenda

China-ASEAN Expo to be held in late September

The 16th China-ASEAN Expo (CAEXPO) is slated to be held in Nanning, capital of Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region, from Sept 20 to 23. A series of activities, including the opening ceremony for the Indonesia "City of Charm" pavilion, the Indonesia Exhibition, a national promotional conference, and an investment conference, will be held due to Indonesia is this year's country of honor.

(China Daily: News)

Vietnam protests to China over South China Sea boat sinking

Vietnam has lodged an official protest with China following the sinking of a Vietnamese fishing boat which was being chased by a Chinese maritime surveillance vessel in the disputed South China Sea, Vietnam said late on Thursday. Vietnam and China have for years long been embroiled in a dispute over the potentially energy-rich stretch of waters, called the East Sea by Vietnam.

(Reuters: News)

Korean Problem

Trump-Kim summit: Vietnam aiming to cash in on 'valuable' event

Officials and analysts predict future economic gains as Vietnam steps up preparations to host second Trump-Kim meeting. According to Phuong Hoa Nguyen, a deputy director at Vietnam's Ministry of Culture, Sport and Tourism, the effects of playing hosts to not only Trump and Kim, but also to the media circus coming to town, would allow the country to showcase its "dynamic development with a model of successful socioeconomic innovation, friendly people, rich cultural identity and heroic history".

(Al Jazeera: Opinion)

North Korea: 10 Major Diplomats Return to Pyongyang

Ten heads of North Korean diplomatic missions around the world have returned to Pyongyang, including those from China, Russia and the United Nations, KBS World Radio reported March 20. The return of top North Korean diplomats to Pyongyang has fueled speculation that the government is either holding a high-level meeting or will soon make a significant announcement related to North Korea's negotiating strategy with the United States.

(Stratfor: Situation Report)

North Korea quits liaison office in setback for South after new U.S. sanctions

North Korea said it was quitting the joint liaison office set up in September in the border city of Kaesong after a historic summit between leader Kim Jong Un and South Korea's President Moon Jae-in early last year. South Korea regrets the decision and urged a swift normalisation of the arrangement, Chun said, adding the South would continue to staff the office, set up as a regular channel of communication to ease hostility between the rivals, which technically remain at war.

(Reuters: Article)

South Asian Insight

Pakistan speaks brotherhood but sends terrorists: Afghanistan

Afghanistan's National Security Adviser, Hamdullah Muhib, explained how Pakistan blocked the trade routes of Afghanistan because Kabul wanted to diversify the routes. While continuing pressure on Pakistan to announce Masood Azhar as a global terrorist until March 13, Hamdullah Muhib blamed Pakistan for failing to fulfill its obligations under the UNSC's resolutions and allowing terrorists to travel around its territory. As long as Pakistan does not take action on its commitments, Muhib said they would not believe a single word, and he added; “they are talking about brotherhood, they are always nice but eventually they sent terrorists to Afghan land". Muhib who saying Afghanistan Pakistan Peace and Solidarity Action Plan was not implemented by Islamabad pointed that Pakistan has not cooperated in any field.

(The Economic Times-India Times: News)

China, Pakistan Vow to Strengthen Counter-Terrorism Cooperation

China and Pakistan have agreed to enhance cooperation on counter-terrorism in their first strategic dialogue since the recent military flare up between Islamabad and New Delhi. The meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi came as Islamabad awaits more than $2 billion in commercial loans from Beijing in a bid to shore up foreign-exchange reserves and stabilize its economy.

(Bloomberg: News)

Pakistan government believes USD 11 billion stashed abroad by Pakistanis

ISLAMABAD: Pakistani nationals having more than 152,500 offshore bank accounts could have stashed away a hefty sum of USD 11 billion abroad, a "mind-boggling" amount half of which is undeclared, a top minister was quoted as saying in a media report Tuesday. Azhar said the offshore account holders were under the watch of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR). Several years ago, former finance minister Ishaq Dar had claimed that Pakistani nationals had parked a whopping USD 200 billion in Swiss accounts, but he never disclosed the source of his information. Based on his claim, the ruling Imran Khan-led Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf promised to recover this money after coming to power. The prime minister has also set up the Asset Recovery Unit for this purpose.

(Economic Times: Report)

Guns and Tourists: Aboard the unlikely India-Pakistan 'Friendship Bus'

Carrying a mixture of Indian and Pakistani tourists, the bus, emblazoned with the flags of both countries and the phrase ‘Sada-e-Sarhad’ (Call of the Frontier), is one of the few remaining transport links between the nuclear-armed neighbors, who clashed last month over the disputed Kashmir region in a conflict that alarmed world powers. But as Reuters found on a return trip on what is also known as the ‘dosti (friendship) bus’, that runs daily except Sundays between Delhi and the Pakistani city of Lahore, it is a powerful symbol of hope for better relations between the rivals, who despite their political differences share strong linguistic, cultural and family ties.

(Reuters: News)

Afghanistan

Afghanistan conflict: Two US soldiers killed on operation

NATO reported that two soldiers of the United States were killed while serving. Although they were killed on Friday, their names will be announced 24 hours after they were notified to their families. With these deaths, the number of deaths of staff from the United States rose to 4. Despite negotiations, the country is more dangerous than ever.

(BBC News: News)

Afghan War casualty report: March 15-21

At least 45 security officers and at least 12 civilians died in Afghanistan last week. This report includes seven days of major security incidents in the past week. In this report, prepared by New York Times journalists, the most deadly attack took place in the Arkalik village of Faryab Province; 22 security guards were killed, 8 police officers were injured and 4 police officers were captured. While all of the references used in the preparation of the report do not contain accurate information, it has been tried to be kept as close as possible to the official sources.

(NY Times: News)

Abu Dhabi crown prince “proposed killing Taliban leaders”: report

Bin Zayid warned Pompeo that Afghanistan could fall into the hands of the Taliban. According to the news published on the Middle East Eye news site, Abu Dhabi's chief prince, Mohammad bin Zayid, has offered to assassinate the leaders of the Taliban. According to source, Bin Zayed said an assassination may be organized with mercenaries for the weakening Taliban's position in the negotiations. The first round of talks last year was held in Abu Dhabi, UAE. It is also said that Bin Zayed was angry at the fact that the Taliban's office was in the Qatar because the negotiations continued in there.

(Al Jazeera: News)

Miscellaneous

New Zealand attacks: Debates over gun control

There is renewed debate around New Zealand's gun laws after the shootings. New Zealanders will question how someone could have been in a position to legally own weapons of this nature. Friday's attacks are now forcing the New Zealand government to rethink its gun laws.

(Al Jazeera: News)

Russia Claims Total Military Superiority in the Arctic

The steady and costly buildup of military might in the Arctic has apparently reached a level sufficient for Russia to claim sovereign rights over international waters along the entire length of the Northern Sea Route (known in Russian as Sevmorput), from the Barents Sea in the west to Alaska and the Bering Strait in the east. Deputy Prime Minister Yury Borisov told journalists, “This territory [the Arctic] is within the sphere of Russian interests. We will not give it away or let it slip away,” despite Washington’s claims that these are international waters.

(Real Clear Defense: Article)

China’s Pursuit of Semiconductor Independence

While China has made immense investments in science and technology, and while these are producing results, it is still dependent on Western technology. This is particularly true for semiconductors. China’s dependence on foreign semiconductors has worried Beijing for decades. China suspects that Western semiconductors contain “backdoors,” intentional vulnerabilities that can be exploited for intelligence and military purposes.

(CSIS: Analysis)

Jacinda Ardern Has Rewritten the Script for How a Nation Grieves After a Terrorist Attack

Jacinda Ardern, the Prime Minister of New Zealand, has staged a revolution. In the wake of a shooting that killed fifty people, in two mosques, in the city of Christchurch last Friday, Ardern has quietly upended every expectation about the way Western states and their leaders respond to terrorist attacks. Ardern has resisted war rhetoric. Since the modern era of terrorism began, on September 11, 2001, world leaders have responded to terror by promising vengeance and waged war, rhetorically and militarily. Ardern, on the other hand, immediately showed that she had no time for the perpetrator of the mosque shootings.“Many of those who will have been directly affected by this shooting may be migrants to New Zealand; they may even be refugees here,” she said. “They have chosen to make New Zealand their home, and it is their home. They are us. The person who has perpetuated this violence against us is not. They have no place in New Zealand. There is no place in New Zealand for such acts of extreme and unprecedented violence.” The most effective way to fight violence is to make the violence less efficient.

(New Yorker: Analysis)