Graham Allison on Thucydides's Trap

Summer 2017 www.belfercenter.org AP

Graham Allison on Thucydides’s Trap

hen a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, Walarm bells should sound: extreme danger ahead. As the ancient Greek historian Thucydides explained in his history of 将中国列为货币 the Peloponnesian War, “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.” 操纵国为时已晚 Today, an irresistible rising China is on course to collide with an immovable America. Identifying clues from history to prevent violent conﬂict between Washington and Beijing has been the focus of a ﬁve-year research project led by Belfer Center Director Graham Allison, culminating in the May 30 publication of his latest book, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? Allison’s research—the pioneer endeavor of the Belfer Center’s budding Applied History Project—uncovered a deadly pattern. Over the past 500 years, a rising power threatened to displace a ruling power 16 times. In 12 of those cases, the outcome ended in war. The fact that war was averted in four cases demonstrates that the outcome is not foreordained. But avoiding war between the United States and China will require statecraft as subtle as that of the British in dealing with a rising America a century ago, continued on or the “wise men” who crafted a Cold War strategy to meet the page 7 Soviet Union’s surge without bombs and bullets.

SEE INSIDE:

Samantha Power Returns page 3 Former U.S. Ambassador to the UN will lead new Center project

Graham Allison’s Transformative Tenure page 4 A look at 22 years as Director of the Belfer Center

www.belfercenter.org From the Director

Googling: Chairman of Alphabet, Inc. (Google) Eric Schmidt checks out the Belfer Center newsletter with Center Director Graham Allison on the way to a presentation during at a Center Director’s Lunch in May.

n Te Wall Street Journal recently, a man named Bob Greene related how ofen about Professor Laban. Did I ever thank him directly for sharing his Ihe reconnected with his first-grade teacher, Patti Ruoff. Afer stumbling love of learning with me? upon a black-and-white photo of his teacher as a little girl, Mr. Greene, now Giving proper thanks to those who taught and inspired me is just one of an author, called Ms. Ruoff—twice widowed and 88 years old—out of the many pursuits I look forward to giving higher priority as I begin to think about blue to thank her for instilling in him the love of reading. Teir exchange rebalancing my mindshare afer handing the Center’s reins to Ash Carter and gave me goosebumps: Eric Rosenbach on July 1. Lest there be any doubt: I am not retiring. Indeed— I said that if I’ve ever written a graceful sentence, if I’ve ever appreciated a freed from administrative duties—I look forward to being more productive turn of phrase in a good book, if I’ve ever found comfort in a beautifully told in thinking, writing, teaching, and being a better mentor. story, it all began with her. I told her that hundreds of other boys and girls who At the top of my immediate agenda will be pushing Destined for War as a once passed through her classroom likely have reason to be just as grateful. vehicle for promoting its key ideas. Unless and until thinking Americans—and And I told her I was sure that many other men and women, now grown, must Chinese—understand that the current relationship poses a grand historic have called to thank her over the years. challenge of Tucydidean proportions, we will never summon the strategic Tere was a slight pause, and then she said: “None.” imagination and courage to do what is required to escape a trap that has led She said: “No one ever has.” many predecessors into war. Tat story got me think- I have agreed with Ash and Eric that I will chair the Belfer Center’s ing about a professor who International Council and serve as the primary point of contact with a number taught me Ancient Greek of the non-resident senior fellows. I am especially looking forward to having when I was a freshman at more time and energy to advance the Applied History Project, which I co-direct Davidson College. Much with Niall Ferguson; the China Working Group, which I co-chair with Larry of that course consisted Summers and Hoss Cartwright; and the Stanton nuclear security program of learning a new alpha- of which I am the principal investigator. bet, vocabulary, sentence In sum: I am handing the baton to Ash and Eric for the next lap of the structure, and grammar. race, confident that the best for the Belfer Center is yet to come. But Professor Laban dan-

Celebrating JFK: Graham Allison with Caroline Kennedy gled a “prize” for those who during the Kennedy School’s “JFK 100” symposium. studied hard and excelled: reading Tucydides. I can still hear the exuberance and reverence in his enunciation: Tucydides! For Professor Laban, classical Greece represented the ﬁrst great steeple of civilization. Tucydides, he taught us, was not only the father of history but also the pioneer of what we now call realpolitik, or realism, in international relations. Since I was a budding student of world politics, I became all the more determined to claim Professor Laban’s prize—which I ultimately did. When I became Dean of Harvard’s Kennedy School, my dad joked that he had sent his son away to study at Harvard and he had still not lef school to get a real job. By his calculation, I was entering the 28th grade. Today, as I ﬁnish 71st grade and publish a book that draws heavily on Tucydides—Destined Welcome Home: Former science advisor to President for War: Can America and China Escape Tucydides’s Trap?—I have thought Obama John P. Holdren is welcomed back to the Belfer Center by Graham Allison and staf in April.

2 AP PHOTO / SETH WENIG SETH / PHOTO AP

Powerful Vote: United States Ambassador to the United Nations Samantha Power votes on a resolution during a Security Council meeting at UN headquarters, Wednesday, March 2, 2016. Samantha Power Returns Will Head New International Peace and Security Project amantha Power, United States Ambassador Practice of Global Leadership and Public Policy. Sto the United Nations from 2013 until 2017, At Harvard Law School, where she earned her “It is essential that we do has been named to a joint faculty appointment at J.D. in 1999, she will be Professor of Practice. all we can to ensure that Harvard Kennedy School and Harvard Law School. Prior to becoming UN Ambassador, Power graduates have the skills At the Kennedy School, she will direct a new Belfer served for four years as President Obama’s Special Center initiative—the International Peace and Assistant for Multilateral Affairs and Human they need to succeed in Security Project—and will be a senior member of Rights on the National Security Council. At the messy geopolitical and the Center and member of the board. She will also UN, she negotiated the toughest sanctions in multilateral environments.” be affiliated with the Kennedy School’s Carr Center a generation against North Korea, became the for Human Rights Policy. public face of U.S. opposition to Russian actions —Samantha Power Power first came to the Belfer Center in 1998 in Ukraine and Syria, lobbied to help secure the as Project Director of the Human Rights Initiative. release of political prisoners around the world, the United Nations will inform and enliven the Tat initiative grew quickly and became the Carr and spearheaded UN reforms, including of peace- intellectual life at the Center.” Center, where she was named the founding keeping efforts. Former Secretary of Defense Ash Carter, who Executive Director. Before her academic career, Power served as a will succeed Allison as Belfer Center Director in On her return to the Kennedy School, Power foreign correspondent, contributing to Te New July, said, “Few have championed human rights will serve as the Anna Lindh Professor of the Yorker, New Republic, and New York Review of and international law with the rigor and real-world Books. Her books include the 2003 accomplishments of Sam Power. She is a huge asset Pulitzer Prize winning A Problem from to the Belfer Center.” Hell: America and the Age of Genocide, “I am very excited to return to Harvard, as which examined U.S. responses to I believe it is essential that we do all we can to genocide in the 20th century. ensure that graduates have the skills they need “We could not be prouder to wel- to succeed in messy geopolitical and multilateral come Samantha home,” said Belfer environments,” Power said. “Given the daunting Center Director Graham Allison. “She challenges we confront—whether from terrorism, has been a source of inspiration and rising nationalism, climate change, or mass atroc- insight, and her extensive service both ities—it is essential that we in academia draw les- in Washington and as Ambassador to sons from experience, devise practical approaches, On the Sidelines: Samantha Power talks with International and prepare the next generation to improve their Council member Stuart Rabin during the 2017 annual meeting. communities, their countries, and the world.” 3 “Graham Allison is quite simply a living legend. Graham has “Graham Allison has the credibility to recruit the best thinkers not only been a great director of the Belfer Center, but also to Belfer and the creativity to help them inspire students the man without whom there would be, quite literally, no and influence policy. He has the brains to master complexity Kennedy School…This is and always will be the house that and the communication skills to help us understand it. I view Graham built.” Graham as the Paul Revere to warn us of nuclear terrorism and —Ash Carter tell us how to prevent it.” —Sam Nunn

“Leveraging science, technology, and policy to confront hard “My adviser and mentor Professor Allison’s faith in me problems and better people’s lives has been the aim of my has given me the courage to reach for goals beyond my family’s philanthropy for decades. At Harvard Kennedy School imagination. He was generous with his time and advice, always and the Belfer Center, this aspiration becomes achievement. pushed me to think bigger, prayed for me, warned me against Year after year, under Graham Allison’s leadership, the Center entering civil war zones, and taught me that good people are mobilizes the very best minds to make the world a safer place fundamental to efective policy.” for our children and grandchildren.” —Jieun Baek —Robert Belfer

“Graham has influenced generations of students, catalyzed “Graham’s intellect, knowledge, energy, and enthusiasm are generations of faculty members (including me), and himself inspirational and, it appears, contagious. Under his leadership, produced essential scholarship that has changed the world. the Belfer Center has set the standards of excellence for There are few thinkers or doers in history who have so research, education, and influence in the field of science and consistently demonstrated the relevance of ideas to the international afairs.” real world, while at the same time injecting constant reality —Albert Carnesale checks into the classroom and the academy. There is only one Graham Allison.” —Samantha Power

Diplomatic Discussions: Secretary of State John Kerry discusses critical world issues with Belfer Center Director Graham Allison during a conversation with faculty and students at Harvard in October 2015. uncommon impact –andby acommon purpose to buildamore secure, peaceful world. Under Allison’s leadership, theBelfer Center has: ons andclimate change to energy markets andthefuture of diplomacy, theCenter programs andprojects hebuiltare united by arecord of With vision and determination, Allison has built an impactful Center featuring some of the world’s top thinkers and doers. From nuclear weap and international afairs intersect, andto prepare future generations of leaders for these arenas. edge aboutthemost important international security challenges andothercritical issues where science, technology, environmental policy, Throughout his22years asDirector, Allison hasworked unrelentingly to carry outtheCenter’s mission: to advance policy-relevant knowl Harvard Kennedy School Dean Carter Far from retiring, Making theBelfer Center “The Best There Is” Graham Allison: John Park David Keith Bunn The heart of theBelfer Center’s success lies inits remarkable community of staf , students, fellows, andfaculty, whichincludes:

MARTHA STEWART • • • • • •

Belfer Center’s timelyreport “the gold standard.” debate inrecent years: theIran nuclear deal. One senator called the best facts andthebest analysis onthemost important foreign policy Been praised by Democrats andRepublicans alike Summits. the United States, COP-21 inParis, andtheGlobal Nuclear Security summits inrecent years, includingtheclimate pact between Chinaand Helped drive theagenda and competitive mediaoutlets— Published more than100 op-eds Power Holdren Ehud Barak Recruited security, andscience andtechnology. Become Harvard’s preeminent center university-afliated thinktank Been named Pete Domenici Renée Belfer and CSIA to theBelfer Center for Science andInternational Afairs, Center Rededication 1997: , Nicholas Burns and The Wall Street Journal , Graham Allison Mike Rogers , , Laura Holgate Samantha Power Eric Rosenbach in the past few months a who’s who of science and security all-stars: , Robert Lawrence , Alan Bersin by theUniversity of Pennsylvania asthe Graham Allison , Elizabeth Belfer , Richard Lugar , Eric Rosenbach Eric , William Clark (front row) are joined by (back row left to right) , Douglas Lute Douglas , John Carlin . Allison’s impact asDirector of theCenter hasbeenextraordinary—“impossible to overestimate” inthewords of for some of theworld’s most consequential Celebrating therefurbishment andrenaming of , . Gary SamoreGary The New York Times Doug Elmendorf , Henry LeeHenry isset to redouble hisresearch, teaching, andwritingin July, whenhehandstheCenter’s reins to , , —four years inarow. Laurence Belfer Robert Belfer , , last year inthenation’s most Jake Sullivan , Ash Carter Ash , Dara Kay Cohen Lisa Monaco for foreign policy, national , Fredrik Logevall , Daniel Schrag . Here, we raise oureditorial glass inatoast to anexceptional leader. , , James Clapper Shelly Malkin , and and , , and , , The Washington Post Ernest Moniz Ernest Jon Wolfsthal for providing the Carolyn Belfer , world’s No. 1 Niall Ferguson , , Robert Stavins Tarek Masoud , Ash Carter , Sam Nunn John , Samantha . . , , Jefrey Frankel ,

, , Venky Narayanamurti Lawrence Summers • • • • • •

and cyber security to energy andclimate issues andchallenges around today—providing policy-relevant research inareas ranging from nuclear Expanded programs andprojects “impact factor” among87 journalsaround the world, including Published and policymaking. government ofcialswhocombine andmilitary thebest of scholarship Attracted pressing issues of technology andglobal af airs. exceptionally qualifiedHKS students focusing theirstudies onthemost Created anew Allison Scholarship brightest, most experienced global practitioners andthinkers. Convened thought-provoking andinfluentialseminars highest levels of government, academia, andorganizations worldwide. 1995 to more than60today. Center alumnifillleadership positions atthe Enhanced program recruitment Russia, China, andtheMiddleEast. , John Holdren International Security an unequalledconcentration of faculty andformer senior , and , Joseph Nye , Stephen Walt Calestous Juma “Overcoming Nuclear Danger,” inDecember 2007. (right) with From Russia withLessons: , Meghan O’Sullivan , a quarterly journal that ranks highest for for highest ranks that journal quarterly a , of top research fellows, from adozen in from three in1995 to more than20 . endowed by theBelfer family for Graham Allison , Juliette Kayyem

Matthew Ash

Mikhail Gorbachev , ata JFK Jr. Forum, - - , withthe airs f A Foreign

MARTHA STEWART 5 6 R position in the Department of Energy, of Department the Mowatt-in position intelligencetopappointment the his to to Prior orts. ff e counter-terrorism and WMD Agency’s of Energy and as head of the Central Intelligence and Counterintelligence at the U.S. Department Intelligence of Offi ce the of Director as service Center as a senior fellow since 2009, following his the Center in 2005. Brigadier General (ret) Project on Saudi and GCC Security. He succeeds and Projects Defense Center’sand Intelligence Projects Saudi/Gulf and Intelligence/Defense Lead Will Mowatt-Larssen Succeeds Ryan Award,Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal, awardsincludingDirector’sCIAnumber of the WestPoint, Mowatt-Larssen recipientthea is of Department and theCounterterrorism Center. the WeaponsDestruction Mass of of Chief and Support Military for Intelligence Central of Director Associate Deputy as including posts, international and domestic various in ocer ffi Larssen forserved 23 years as a CIA intelligence cer, has been named Director of the of Director named obeen fficer,ligence has liated with the with aliatedffi Mowatt-Larssenbeen has A graduate of the U.S. Military Academy at U.S.Academy Military the of graduate A with the Belfer Center and long-timeandCenterintel Belfer the with olf Mowatt-Larssen Kevin Kevin Ryan , a former senior fellow , who joined common interests andmaintaining anopenlineof communication between theU.S. andRussia. Vital Link: - tions between high-level defense and intelligence launched in 2010 to maintain open communica Ryan Group, which Elbe Te of part Larssen, remain,Mowatt-with also alongissues. will He security and military Russian on focus a with Center working on intelligence and defense issues Defense Projects. and Intelligence Center’s the of Director ing found became he time which at 2013, to 2010 from Research for Center’sthe ExecutiveDirector Nuclear Terrorism. He served as U.S.–Russia Initiative to Prevent and in 2009 founded the Center’s Center in 2005 as a senior fellow Medal. DistinguishedService Civilian Defense of Secretary and Medal, Commendation Rolf taking his space as head of our intelligence of head as hisspace taking Rolf Allison Graham Director Center Belfer basis,” said daily a on o inffi theU.S.cials and Russia. Rolf Mowatt-Larssen Kevin Ryan joined the Belfer “Wegreatly will miss interacting with Kevin Ryan will continue as an associate at the the at associate an as continue will Ryan , “but we are fortunate to have to fortunateare ,we “but (right)and from Left, front) with The ElbeGroup inBerlin inNovember 2015. Communication Channel: - Kevin Ryan full-time inhisnew position.” look forward to having him issues, and other security,here and insights on intelligence, nuclear number of years from Rolf’s “We have benefited for a discuss arecent meetingof The ElbeGroup regarding -

Kevin Ryan internationally.” U.S.and the in researchers,and experts dents, stu for focus into relevance policy of issues said, Larssen defense intelligenceand “bringing Center,”Belfer the of workting-edge Mowatt- position.”new look forward to having him here full-time in his and issues, other security,and nuclear ligence, intel on insights Rolf’s from years a of for number beneﬁted have We Program. Fellows Foundation Recanati-Kaplan our of manager as and initiatives Saudi/GCC and defense and “ ml kigfrwr ocn nigth ut c he t inuing cont to ward for ing ok lo am “I (left) and Rolf Mowatt Larssen —Graham Allison (2nd - - -

KEVIN RYAN T website, mation architecture accessible on devices. all work infor under one and powerful user-friendly site consolidates and reorganizes all of the Center’s to a comprehensive migration of content, the new satellite sites apart from belfercenter.org. Tanks so-called on housed was issues timely on work that advance our mission. and shines a brighter light on the people and ideas Center’sunifiesthatthe work, reach,furthersits Moth Design. Together, we created a web platform alongside Boston-based firms Pod Consulting and mination of an extensive redesign process working by Mission with Advanced Features New Website Supports Center’s Trump, and Xi,their successors forward, must face Going hard 2015. questions about in the U.S.-Chinasummit state their at TrapT ucydides’s of says,Presidents them.Tocredit, between their stressAllison structural the of severity the inevitable, Allison worries that politicians in both nations do not fully grasp Tbig of ucydides’s idea Trap in their comments on U.S.-China relations. diplomats, and military generals, meanwhile, are increasingly citing Allison’s alike must read, digest, and act upon.” Members of Congress, policy officials, Samantha Power Nations United the people.” to U.S. of FormerAmbassador millions of the World of ForumEconomic the “most important foreign policy book of our time.” Executive Chairman James Winnefeld nation and courage required no war.” to of makeh case this thefif imagistrategic conditions,Tof ucydidean level the torousing andthem Page 1 from Continued Escaping a Violent Destiny Arielle Dworkin In the past, some of the Center’s signature signature Center’s the of some past, the In While emphasizing that war between Washington and Beijing is not is Beijing Washington between and war that emphasizing While praise, advance by Judging tion to its newly designed and re-engineered he Center Belfer is to yourpleased call atten belfercenter.org Barack Obama Barack called it “a gripping book that decision-makers and citizens , former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Sta ff, calls it e new site is the cul the is site new e T . alerting them to the extreme danger of these these of danger extreme the to them alerting internationals,other andAmericansthinking of minds the impact can argument the that is usual.as history to lead will usual “Myas hope it,”prevent business that says,warning Allison President Trump. Teamfor than lead America better a of dream not could casting war, central to road the on ing a blockbuster pitting China against the U.S. events in mind. But if Hollywood were produc Destined for War “My goal is not to predict the future but to butfuture the predict to not is “My goal Allison’s was not book written with current and Klaus Schwab Klaus Xi Jinping Xi is already making an impact. impact. an making already is says it could it says“save lives the - - - at least raised the conceptthe at raised least

Spotlight”section that shows trending subjects in issues. Texpandede experts section critical includes an most “Inthe world’s the on authorities BelferCenterTcommunitye includes leading Experts day. the publications of viewed most withfeatured experts, upcoming events, andthe along research topic-based additional and stories, You’llfeatureda see publication, threespotlight Homepage method expandable through a mega-dropdown style. porating all accessible content in a streamlined Our new menu improves ease of use byMain menu incor - -

Los Los Angeles, San Francisco, Charlotte, and Boston. York, New Washington, D.C.,in stops with beginning world, the around foreign policy issue of our time. Allison plans to talk about his book in cities lens for answering these questions—and for understanding the most critical into cascade South war? China Sea impact this epic rivalry? Could a trade conflict or accidental collision in the Trump’sbecomingNo.Howwill 2? tovow ‘Make AmericaGreat Again’ dominant power in Asia in the foreseeable future? Could Americans accept the U.S. as the replacing about serious China Isrelationship, including: In Destinedfor War future butto prevent it.” “My goal is not to predict the School alumnus. Liuisamajoreconomic advisor to President Deputy Director of theNationalDevelopment andReform Commission andKennedy U.S.-China Engagement: - Copies can bepre-ordered at , explains Allison why T ucydides’sTrap best the is We hope you will use and enjoy the new website. website. new the [email protected] enjoy and use youronlinefeedbackSendnewhomeourto on will you hope We • • Other New Oferings by area. issue experts, foror search experts specific poolexpertsof inthe “AllExperts” tab, search for commentary in that area. Visitors can findthenewsand the topthe Center expertsentire available for

Graham Allison casts, original videos, and broadcast videos. A “multimedia” includes section photos, pod featuresand blogsinitiative section special A other distinctive websites related to related the Center.websites distinctive other meets inBeijing inMarch 2015 with http://amzn.to/2krhOY6 Xi Jinping . . Liu He , -

CENTRAL LEADING GROUP 7 8 SEOUL CAMBRIDGE O A Opportunities for U.S.-China-Korea Cooperation U.S.-China-Korea for Opportunities Expertise Around the World Conference Focuses on U.S., Japan, and Rise of China a ruling power.a ruling challenges power rising a when relationstional inevitable structural stress that occurs in interna Tucydides’s“ Trap,” a concept that describes the of danger the and China of rise the discussed Consulate in Boston. Michii Naval War College, Consul General from Harvard and other area universities, the U.S. Samore by Center Executive Director for Research China.Japan of andrise alliance the Moderated Center conference in March to discuss the U.S.- Asia. East in order administration, and the new economic and trade States United new the under Korea North ize denuclear to orts ﬀ e transition, in relations U.S.-China on perspectives exchanged experts relations international 18 e T (SIS). Studies International of School University’s Peking from China’s a delegation included also ference con international the (KFAS), Studies Advanced for Foundation Korea the by Hosted Korea. U.S.-China-Korea Cooperation” in Seoul, South for Challenges and Opportunities Dialogue: efr etr Director CenterBelfer KFAS President academics and oﬃcials gathered for a Belfer Japanesetop-leveland American groupof vened vened the inaugural round of the “Trilateral co-con Center Belfer 17,the February n , and other members of the Japanese Japanese the of members other and , , the event included participating scholars In-kook Park In-kook rhm Allison Graham gave welcoming Rokuichiro pictured (from left): Trilateral Cooperation: Gary Gary - - - -

the discussion. He expressed confidence that confidence of expressed He discussion. the core the provided airs, ff A International of Institute Japan Te at Advisor Research Vice Minister remarks.KFASChairman will result,”will Takagi said. takes place, but what kind of international order the real question is not whether a power transition I’mas avoidingenough?...Asfar warconcerned tectionist attitudes by government. theChinese probehaviorand foreignpolicy assertive ingly increas of result the primarily are relations Japan order China’s-based in theface of rise. rules global the maintain help must Japan that warned avoided,but be Tucydides’sTrap can external facing while domestically changes cal undergoingpolitiarecountries three all that Jia Qingguo for Research Director Executive airs), ff A Foreign of “A U.S.-China war can be avoided. But is is But avoided. be can war “AU.S.-China China- negative today’s that argued Takagi speaker Keynote In his address, First Vice Minister Lim stated Dialogue, are essential.” ideas, such as the Trilateralplatformsjuncture. for exchangingcritical this “At Evan Feigenbaum Director of theBelfer Center’s Korea Working Group Gary Gary Samore (SIS) gave keynote remarks. Lim Lim Sung-nam (Paulson Institute), Prof. SeiichiroTakagi (Belfer Center), and Dean Chey Tae-won Chey (Korean Ministry —Lim Sung-nam Yao Yang , Senior Senior , , First, (Peking University), andProf. John Park - - - (center) speaks aspart of apanel atthe Trilateral Dialogue. Also challenges such as North Korean nuclear provnuclearKorean North as such challenges Endowment for International Peace), and the the and Peace), International for Endowment Institute),(Paulson Studies), International & included forming challenges into opportunities.” as the Trilateral Dialogue, are essential for trans remarked, “platforms for exchanging ideas, such he juncture,” critical this “At arrangements. trade free about reconsiderations and ocations capabilities. Japan’senable to self-defense more U.S. do the U.S.to interests,central strategicsuggested and defenses, coastguard especially forces. sion,helpingownsuggestedJapan its and build aggres Chinese to deterrent strong a as ance China’s rise. Fravel described the U.S.-Japan alli fear,perception, misperceptionhandlingand in help the U.S.-Japan of alliance. the managedwith be can China of rise howthe Toshi Yoshihara next round of the Trilateral Dialogue later in 2017. Center’sBelfer Yoshihara Structural Stress? Nye discussed the importance of managing of importance the discussed Nye e Belfer Center-led U.S. delegation also also U.S. delegation Center-led Belfer e T Yoshihara noted that geography makes Japan Panelists the convene will organizations partner Te and itr Cha Victor Taylor Fravel Choi Byung-il oeh Nye Joseph Panelists (from left) John Park provided livelya discussion of discuss theimpact of China’s rise. oga Paal Douglas (Ewha Womans University). (Center for Strategic Strategic for (Center and , alr Fravel Taylor vn Feigenbaum Evan Gary SamoreGary William Tobey (Carnegie (Carnegie , Toshi , and and , . - - - -

KOREA FOUNDATION FOR ADVANCED STUDIES I KUWAIT ISTANBUL A Technology Innovation and Policy research research Policy and Innovation Technology Center’s Energy the in Fellow Research former Scholar at the Belfer Center), and Cambridge University), Department of Politics and International Studies, Centerthe Belfer and University Lecturer at the Environment and Natural Resources Program at Diaz Anadon Laura Policy), Public and Technology of Professor Narayanamurti Linkages.” Te Center team included Vital and Capacity Research Building GCC: the in Technology and “Science on (KFAS) Kuwait Foundation for Advancement of Science the with workshop collaborative a in part take States Gulf the in Research S&T Developing Relations U.S.-Pakistan on Dialogue Launch Experts Asia, pathways that could lead to the use of of use the to lead could that pathways Asia, including the state strategic of stability in South undergoing changes within its own oﬃces. Pakistan’s oversees is arsenal, nuclearwhich (NCA), Authority Command Pakistan’s National while policies, Asia South its formulating still Washington,in administration new D.C.,the is came at a time of transition for both countries— meeting Te relations. bilateral U.S.-Pakistani improving and Asia South in stability strategic strengthening goals: important two on focused marking the start of a track 1.5 dialogue. Te talks cials in Istanbul,in onuclear ﬃcials Pakistani former with met delegation Center Belfer April, a n Participants discussed a number of issues, issues, of number a discussed Participants team traveled to Kuwait in March to to March in Kuwait to traveled technology team and science Center Belfer (Benjamin Peirce Research Research Peirce (Benjamin (Research Associatethe in Afreen Afreen Siddiqi Rebecca Stern Rebecca Venkatesh (Visiting ,

for Engineering). groupand graduate student at Harvard’s School tionssummarizing keyfindings theirofresearch Taher Sahhaf Al Professors University Kuwait and Research), Scientific for Director,InstituteKuwaitEBRC, Development), and Planning for Council SupremeSecretary, Management—KFAS), Knowledge and Relations International of East were Middle the from participants the ages.Among link university-industry creating for strategies discuss to andKuwait in research high-quality conducting in challenges current explore to Miller Tobey Gen. Fellows U.S. delegation also included Belfer Center Senior General of the NCA’s Strategic Plans Division. T e Lt.Gen. attendeestothe first daymeetings, of along with tribute to regional peace, security, and stability. con could relationship,that bilateralsteps and the strengthen to cooperation possible of areas U.S.-Pakistani relationship. Participants identified overall the in trends country,and each of tices SouthAsia, nuclear securitypolicies pracand in production material weapons,fissile nuclear e Harvard team made a series of presenta of series a made team Harvard Te e key objectives for the workshop were workshop the for objectives key Te e Belfer Center’s Belfer Te , the International Security Program’s Program’s Security International the , , and the ProjectManagingthe,onand the Atom’s Khalid Ahmed Kidwai Amani Amani Albedah James Cartwright James and ae Al-Hajraf Salem Haitham Lababidi Khaled Mahdi Khaled Gary Samore Gary (Director, Directorate Siddiqi Vital Linkages: , former Director and , and (Executive (Executive welcomed Rebecca Stern (General (General The Belfer Center’s William . Steven - - - - , withKuwait’s Center Executive Director for Research Strategic Steps: Kuwait Program at Harvard Kennedy School. Te studiesfunded bytwosuccessive grants fromthe effto nationalorts development goals. dis cussionpanel a on with connecting localconcluded education workshop ande T researchKuwait. byfaculty and administrators from institutions in ronment. A series of presentations were alsoenvi and madeenergy as such welfare public and ment capacity in key areas relevant for national develop highlightedimportancethe buildingof research also discussed key findings they have published industryand linkages withnational universities. Tey collaborations,natureandthe andeff ectiveness of trendsnationalin research capacity, international Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, emerging teamexamined trajectorythe research of the in a series of meetings aimed at generating publi generating at aimed meetings of series a Center for International Strategic Studies. Ali Muhammad and Geneva; in UN the to Representative Akram Malik Yasin joined the meetings as part of the Pakistani party. Ahmed Bunn Matthew plan to continue their discussions. delegations U.S.Pakistan.Te andthe both for proposals policy and issues strategic oncations Laura Diaz Anadon For more, see see more, For e two-day workshop served as the first of of first the as workshoptwo-dayTserved e Lt.Gen.included:group Pakistani Te Khaled Mahdi , Ambassador and former Permanent former and Ambassador , , a Belfer Center post-doctoral fellow, fellow, post-doctoral Center Belfer a , Pakistani Lt. Gen. , former Secretary of Defense; Defense; of Secretary former , , and belfercenter.org/ScientificWealth , a Senior Research Fellow at the Venkatesh Narayanamurti , atacollaborative workshop inKuwait. Khalid Ahmed Kidwai Martin Malin Martin Gary SamoreGary inIstanbul. . , Afreen Mansoor withBefler Zamir Zamir Syed Asif Asif - - - -

KFAS GARY SAMORE 9 Belfer Center in Action MARTHA STEWART MARTHA STEWART

Russia’s Role: Former National Intelligence Director James Clapper (left) and World Vision: Former UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon (center) makes a point during a JFK Jr. Forum with Belfer Center Director Graham Allison (left) and Harvard Distinguished former U.S. Representative Mike Rogers, both Belfer Center Senior Fellows, Service Professor Joseph Nye. Ban Ki-moon, who discussed his tenure as Secretary General, is the Angelopoulos Public Leaders Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School. talk with the Center’s Natasha Yeﬁmova-Trilling after their JFK Jr. Forum, “Russiagate: Everything You Wanted to Know but Were Afraid to Ask,” in May.

Pakistani Perception: Ambassador Aizaz Chaudhry (center), Pakistan’s WMD Reductions: Ambassador Laura Holgate, former United States Permanent Ambassador to the United States, and Adil Najam, Dean of the Pardee School at Representative to the United Nations Ofce–Vienna and a Belfer Center Senior Boston University, discuss Pakistan’s increasing role in multilateral relations in Fellow, speaks about reducing the threat of weapons of mass destruction during an event moderated by the Future of Diplomacy Project’s Cathryn Clüver. a Belfer Center Director’s Lunch. MARTHA STEWART

Congressional Insight: Kelly Ayotte, U.S. Senator representing New Hampshire Honoring JFK: Former U.S. Ambassador to Japan Caroline Kennedy (center right) shares a light moment with Belfer Center representatives (from left) Nicholas Burns, Graham from 2011-2017 and Belfer Center Visiting Fellow, speaks on issues of national Allison, Meghan O’Sullivan, and Joseph Nye during a JFK 100 symposium celebrating the 100th anniversary of President John F. Kennedy’s birth. security, the budget, Neil Gorsuch, and the Senate, during a Belfer Center Board Lunch also attended by former United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.

10 Belfer Center in Action

World Vision: Former UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon (center) makes a point during a JFK Jr. Forum with Belfer Center Director Graham Allison (left) and Harvard Distinguished Interlocking Issues: Congressman Seth Moulton (right), U.S. Representative Service Professor Joseph Nye. Ban Ki-moon, who discussed his tenure as Secretary General, is the Angelopoulos Public Leaders Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School. for the Sixth District of Massachusetts, joins Nicholas Burns, Goodman Family Professor of the Practice of Diplomacy and International Politics, to speak about congressional eforts to craft an efective national security policy.

Hidden Revolution: Jieun Baek, doctoral candidate at the University of Oxford First Days: Stephen M. Walt and Meghan O’Sullivan discuss foreign policy and and a former Belfer Center fellow, examines how the information underground the direction it is being taken by the Trump administration during a Harvard is transforming North Korea, the topic of her recent book North Korea’s Hidden Kennedy School Dean’s Discussion. The event was one of three Kennedy School Revolution, during a Belfer Center Director’s lunch. events focusing on the ﬁrst 100 days of the Trump administration.

Honoring JFK: Former U.S. Ambassador to Japan Caroline Kennedy (center right) shares a light moment with Belfer Center representatives (from left) Nicholas Burns, Graham Top Spy: Tamir Pardo, former Director of Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, Allison, Meghan O’Sullivan, and Joseph Nye during a JFK 100 symposium celebrating the 100th anniversary of President John F. Kennedy’s birth. greets students prior to delivering the 2017 Corliss Lamont Lecture, “The New Iran Empire.” Belfer Center Director Graham Allison hosted the event at the Harvard Kennedy School.

11 Interviewing Hillary at Harvard

Secretary Clinton Discusses Challenges in Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe During Harvard Visit TOM FITZSIMMONS

Meet and Greet: Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton greets students after the American Secretaries of State Project luncheon and interview at Harvard’s Loeb House in March.

On March 3, former Secretary of State Hillary The American Secretaries of State Project is a Negotiator: Lessons from Dealmaking at the Highest Rodham Clinton visited Harvard University at the joint initiative of the Future of Diplomacy Project Level (forthcoming, HarperCollins). In addition, invitation of Professors Nicholas Burns (HKS), Robert at Harvard Kennedy School, the Program on they plan to publish a comprehensive book about Mnookin (HLS), and James Sebenius (HBS) in one Negotiation at Harvard Law School, and Harvard the lessons learned from their interviews with the of her ﬁrst public engagements since last autumn. Business School. Professors Burns, Mnookin and former Secretaries. They also will create teaching While on campus, she met with Harvard under- Sebenius previously interviewed former Secretaries case studies for Harvard and will produce a series graduates during a morning event organized by of State Henry Kissinger, George Shultz, James of documentary ﬁlms focused on their interviews Harvard’s Institute of Politics. The remainder of her Baker, Madeleine Albright, Colin Powell and and research. visit was dedicated to interviews and a luncheon Condoleezza Rice about the most consequential as part of Harvard’s American Secretaries of State negotiations they conducted while serving in the For more information about the American Project. Project faculty chairs Burns, Mnookin, and nation’s highest foreign policy ofce. They plan to Secretaries of State Project, please visit Sebenius interviewed Secretary Clinton at Loeb interview Secretary John Kerry in the autumn of belfercenter.org/american-secretaries-state House where they discussed the challenges the 2017 at Harvard. United States faces in Asia, the Middle East, and Currently, the professors are completing a book, Eastern Europe. with Sebenius as lead author, entitled Kissinger the TOM FITZSIMMONS

Diplomatic Dialogue: During a luncheon at Harvard, Secretary Clinton, with Professors (from left) Mnookin, Sebenius, and Burns, discusses diplomatic issues she confronted as Secretary of State.

12 GTIL W tor of the Belfer Center’s Science, Technology,Science, Center’s Belfer the of tor muchbroaderscale.a things—juston direc As learning how to learn. neurship taught him the most critical skill of all: entrepreand repairs DIY with experience first made him a minor celebrity. More important, his pressure,” Juma recalls. His savvy with electronics to church and pick them up a fer. “It was a lot of work.”way the on itemsdrop wouldNeighbors was “doingGod’she agreed priest T e repairs. make to time only his was thatradios—and ing onJuma depend householdfix to items, includ to come had Victoria Lake near locals Kenyan reason? T e mass. miss to dispensation o fficial by “Inclusive Innovation” for Champion Lifelong A Juma will accept the prestigious Breakthrough prestigious the accept will Juma June, In world. peaceful secure, more a build to technology and science advancing to ment Center’sthe commit embodies stoves, he cook mobileprintingand 3D innovationto in Africa agricultural and education STEM world.From for poor and vulnerable communities around the knowledgetechnologicalandscientific leverage andGlobalization Project, Juma works tobetter Josh Burek of bananas atagenetics technology labinNairobi, Kenya, in2008. Innovative Agriculture: Today, Juma is still learning and fixing fixing and learning still is Juma Today, human aspects.” the social and they tend to...ignore about technology, “When people talk got an unusual notice from his priest: priest: his from notice unusual an got hen he was 12 years old,

Calestous Juma Spotlight: Calestous Juma observes tissue culture propagation - - - -

BRITISH CEREMONIAL ARTS way when he helped engineer a cook stove for stove cook a engineer helped he when way hard the technology.”thatthat ing learned He and humanthat gointo social aspects the shap object,”ignore an says. JumaT ey “ see to tend public skepticism adjustment. and social of pattern recurring a chronicles Jumamusic, ing press, margarine, refrigeration, and recorded history, ee,ff co including technology of the print new. Drawing on case studies from over 600 years reminds us that fights over technology are hardly book, 2016 Juma’s intelligence, robot workers, and self-driving cars, leadership in biotechnology and innovation. Paradigm Award for his scholarship and thought then metal makers complained about losing jobs. lining.clayBut a with replaced be should inder cyl metallic prototype’s the that concluded Juma developingcommunities. To improve efficiency,

Calestous Juma “When people talk about technology, they technology,they about talk people “When artificial over anxiety growing of time a At the Bible. Next, they say it has been been has it say they Next,Bible. the stages. “First, people say it conflicts with great scientific truth goes through three every that wrote Agassiz Louis ralist for “inclusive innovation.” the time,” Juma says, stressing the need metal. “We miss this human element all stoveaccordingly, clayusing both and the away.redesigned He mosquitoes early models. Te reason? Smoke kept at balked users smoke.But minimize to stove the built had Meanwhile,he e 19th century Harvard natu Harvard century 19th Te Innovation and Its Enemies Its and Innovation Palace to celebrate thefirst Queen Elizabeth Prize for Engineering in2013. Royal Handshake: - - - - ,

prices tostarted drop—and government started society.onimpact havewouldno rich the Ten emerged, development experts said these toys for life without it. He recalls that when mobile phones ments want to control it; finally, we can’t imagine new technology excludes the poor; then govern it.” Juma’sbelieved sayIn people corollary, first always they say before.Lastly, they discovered your inferiors.” thatisyoupolitics governedup in being end by participatetorefusingfor penalties the “One of ways. A recent tweet—a quote from Plato—reads: whose laugh can be heard across the Center’sman a hall of humor the with infused and prolific remains autobiography, writing upcoming his his to posts media social viral Fromdown. ing jections. “We can’t solve without these science.” pro threat exponential with deal to ability the change and famine to deadly pathogens—require of the world’s toughest challenges—from climate But we don’t consider exponential growth.” Many scientific training; they think all growth is linear. havehadnot people majorityof the because “is part of the debate over the environment,” he says, thinking. “A large scientific without f ed cra is ture, things happen,” then good Juma says. pensable. “When technology becomes infrastruc surveillance access. Today, cell phones are indis adopted widely because government would lose phones mobile see to want not did country his to worry. A Nigerian intelligence agent told Juma Calestous Juma Today, this former soccer captain is not slow not is captain soccer former this Today, But bad things happen, he warns, when policy meets with Queen Elizabeth II atBuckingham ------13 Cyber Celebration: Joseph Nye (left) enjoys comments by David Sanger (right) during a cybersecurity event in Nye’s honor. Also pictured (left to right) Katherine Bjelde, Michael Sulmeyer, Albert Carnesale, and William Hogan.

Nye Lauded for Cybersecurity Leadership

arvard University Distinguished Service of cyber issues through his teaching and Belfer was reluctant at first to launch into a field that HProfessor and former Harvard Kennedy Center activities. he knew little about, but he became convinced School Dean Joseph S. Nye was honored by the “On this occasion,” Sulmeyer said, “we honor that he might be able to help raise awareness of Center’s Cyber Security Project in April for his lead- Joe’s dedication to stitching ‘cyber’ into the fabric the growing importance of cyber in national and ership and contributions to cybersecurity through of the Belfer Center and paving the way for the international security. the Belfer Center’s cybersecurity initiatives. Nye has project we have today. Despite his upcoming In addition to Sulmeyer, several other mem- announced his retirement at the end of the semester. retirement, we look forward to roping him into bers of the Center community who work on cyber Michael Sulmeyer, director of the Center’s the study of cybersecurity at the Belfer Center issues—including Ryan Ellis, David Sanger, and Cyber Security Project and host of the event, and the Kennedy School for many years to come.” John Holdren—toasted Nye for his continuing praised Nye for his leadership in identifying and Nye began working on cyber issues with others contributions to the field. exploring solutions to current and future cyber- at the Center several years ago when serious study Te event also honored Nye’s long-time assistant, security challenges and for increasing awareness of cybersecurity was in its infancy. He said he Jeanne Marasca, who plans to retire this summer.

Ambassador Douglas E. Lute Named Senior Fellow

ormer NATO Ambassador Douglas E. Lute him on the project to strengthen our vital NATO of service. In 2007, President George W. Bush Fjoined the Belfer Center in April as a Senior alliance and transatlantic ties.” named him Assistant to the President and Deputy Fellow with the Center’s Future of Diplomacy Appointed by President Barack Obama, National Security Advisor to coordinate the wars Project. Lute served as the United States Permanent in Iraq and Afghanistan. Retained by President At the Kennedy School, Lute will initiate a Representative to NATO from 2013-2017. Obama to focus on South Asia, he served six years research project focused on NATO and transat- During this period, he was instrumental in in the White House. lantic relations that will address the multiplicity designing and implementing the Alliance’s “Doug has served the nation with distinction of challenges facing the Alliance as it approaches responses to the most severe security challenges under two administrations and before that with its 70th anniversary, said Nicholas Burns, Faculty in Europe since the end of the Cold War. He 35 years of military service,” said Belfer Center Director of the Future of Diplomacy Project. Lute received the State Department’s Distinguished Director Graham Allison. “It’s an honor to have will also share his expertise in security and diplo- Honor Award for his work. such a distinguished public servant join the Center macy by conducting seminars and study groups A career Army oﬃcer, Lute retired from active and share his experience and insights with the with students and fellows. duty in 2010 as a Lieutenant General afer 35 years Harvard community.” “I am proud to welcome Ambassador Doug

Lute to the Kennedy School’s Future of Diplomacy NATO Project,” Burns said. “As a former U.S. Ambassador to NATO myself, I look forward to working with “I look forward to working with [Lute] on the project to strengthen our vital NATO alliance.” Alliance Action: NATO Ambassador Douglas E. Lute (center) with General Philip Breedlove (left) —Nicholas Burns and General Knud Bartels at a meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Commission, June 3, 2014.

14 MARTHA STEWART MARTHA STEWART A and China and the Center’s expanded on focus homeland security. from national security and economic growth under the new administration to challenges with Russia U.S.the facing issues world. critical rangingandcoveredissueson discussions TCouncil e the with Clapper former senior government o ﬃcials including recent highlights such as the Center’s No. 1 ranking among university think tanks and the additions of to forAllison his many countributions during 22years as Center director. ference in the2016campaign as well practices as best for congressional oversight. with Center Director JamesClapper Wanted to Know but Were Afraid to Ask International Council Debates Critical Global Issues On the followingday,the On Internationalmembers.the welcomed oCouncil ﬃ cially Heshared Allison Allison’s welcome was followed by a number of presentations by Center experts and discussions and experts presentationsCenter by of Allison’s number a byfollowed was welcome At a reception following the Forum, International Council President President Council International Forum, the following reception a At meeting meeting of the Belfer Center International Council . Te Forum event, lively discussion of “Russiagate” at the JFK Jr. Forum on Tuesday, May 2, launched the 2017 annual , John Holdren ,former National Intelligence Director, and Council members raise theirglasses inatoast to Belfer Center Director Graham Graham Allison Kay Kapoor , Eric Rosenbach Eric talks with moderating. Clapper and Rogers weighed in on Russia’s inter , a was discussionthe focus of Centerbetween Senior Fellows , and James Clapper Samantha Power Ash Carter . duringanInternational Council reception. Mike Rogers Mike , Ernest Ernest Moniz Albert Albert Carnesale ,former U.S. Representative, during the2017 annualmeetingof theBelfer Center International Council. International Issues: Russiagate: Everything You , Laura Laura Holgate Graham Allison raised a toast Martin Feldstein , James . -

and Smantha Power the International Council meeting. Robert Zoellick the Forum with James Clapper and Mike Rogers Eric Schmidt Fellows Fellows Kaplan Tom Michael Morell Graham Allison (center) speaks on “Russiagate” at , with Herbert Winokur, Jr. (left) listen to discussions (center) speaks with Senior Tom Donilon following theForum event. and and and duringabreak in David Petraeus David Mike Rogers , Dan Schrag . , .

MARTHA STEWART MARTHA STEWART MARTHA STEWART 15 Featured Fellows

Middle East Initiative Cyber Security Project Nadia Marzouki Ben Buchanan: Deconstructing Islamophobia From Strategy Games to Middle by Emphasizing Individuality East Analysis to Cyber Security

by Bret Hauf by Josh Coe

adia Marzouki grew up in Tunisia surrounded by politics. Her father, hen Ben Buchanan received his first computer for Christmas 17 Nan oppositional politician who eventually succeeded former author- Wyears ago, much of the appeal was the computer games—especially itarian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, held political meetings in their strategy games. living room. Police snooped in windows and tapped their phones. “My first exposure to strategy was through these rich and deep games,” She lef the north African country for France before she finished high says Buchanan, “and I started thinking about strategy and design when school: police imprisoned her father for his political activity. Tat was 1995. I started making them.” Such was his fascination and creativity that the “All this has remained in the background of my own trajectory,” the designers of his favorite, Command & Conquer, flew him out to California Middle East Initiative fellow said. to advise them on how to improve gameplay. Since then, Marzouki has studied Islam and how those who practice it Now 27, Buchanan is a postdoctoral fellow with the Belfer Center’s are perceived in the United States and France, where she began her research. Cyber Security Project as well as an author. Te Cybersecurity Dilemma: Te French-Tunisian political scien- Hacking, Trust and Fear Between Nations, published in February, is based tist said Islam is ofen seen as a problem “Many people on his doctoral thesis for King’s College, London, where he received a Ph.D. in western society: a hegemonic identity don’t recognize in War Studies as a Marshall Scholar. “Te goal in the Ph.D. was to bring that outsiders project as the sole determi- an individual’s together cyber security and international security in a way that both camps nant for the whole of another’s behavior autonomy within would learn something,” says Buchanan. (addressed in her latest book, Islam: An the overarching Cyber security, however, was not always a component of his research. American Religion.) structure of Islam.” Afer studying government and Arabic at Georgetown University, “For people to identify as Muslim is Buchanan saw for himself a career in Middle Eastern counterterrorism, but something that has a political dimension,” said Marzouki, who practices he would soon come up against an obstacle: Islam. “As soon as you identify as such, it creates a lot of emotions, questions; his knowledge of computers. “The goal...was it triggers lots of insecurity around people you speak to.” “I kept getting hired for positions doing to bring together Te trouble is that many people don’t recognize an individual’s autonomy Middle East stuff,” recalls Buchanan, “and cyber security within the overarching structure of Islam, Marzouki said. Not all Muslims then they would find out I had technical and international have an opinion on the hijab, terrorism, or the Palestinian conflict—but these skills.” As an intern for the New York Police security.” political issues are ofen attributed to the Islamic identity. Department’s counterterrorism unit, for “You’re immediately made accountable for a series of political processes instance, they had hired him for Middle that have nothing to do with your daily life,” Marzouki said. East analysis. Ten, on day one, the department discovered he was adept at It’s this distorted perception of the Muslim identity that Marzouki is computer technology and had him transferred to the department’s Lower working to dissolve. Her research focuses on society’s perceptions of Muslims Manhattan Security Initiative. Tere, he worked on the city’s Domain in an effort to deconstruct ignorance about Islam through emphasizing Awareness System, a project combining technology and policing. individuals’ autonomy to accept—or reject—societal structures. “In a strange way, a lot of the technical skills that I use now are skills “With the context of populism everywhere, and authoritarianism in I learned before I went to university,” says Buchanan. “It just so happened Turkey and Russia, nuance and complexity is not very popular,” Marzouki that computer things really came to the fore in international relations and said. “As academics, it’s important for us to continue fighting against over- international security.” While Buchanan cautions that playing video games simplifications of groups and communities and always try to tell multiple will not lead to postdoctoral fellowships, they can be a starting point for stories, with data and nuances and details.” interest in technology and broad strategy. 16 Sharing Expertise: Belfer Center research fellows share career tips and advice with Kennedy School students at a networking event in March. Students Receive Career and Research Advice at Center’s First Speed-Networking Event

by Sharon Wilke

or two hours on a March afernoon, Harvard and personal backgrounds, including student “I encouraged the students FKennedy School’s Bell Hall buzzed as organization leaders, political activists, UN and I spoke with to...consume Kennedy School students huddled for 15-minute international NGO workers, policy analysts, and as many primary sources as one-on-one sessions with Belfer Center fellows academic researchers. and project directors to get career advice and to Anzalone, a research fellow with the Center’s they could so as not to only ask questions about the others’ career trajectories, International Security Program who studies the read about, say, the Egyptian research, and methods. structure and support networks of violent groups Muslim Brotherhood or such as Islamic State and Al-Shabab, said questions the Afghanistan Taliban, Salleh organized the event to he got from students centered around a few main but to also see how these give students an opportunity areas: (1) how to locate and collate primary source movements/organizations to interact individually materials and how to use these together with other portray themselves." forms of data collection, such as field work and with experts in the field. local news sources; (2) how to evaluate available to follow those areas of the world that they are news media sources and become aware of slants most interested in or focused on in terms of their About a dozen students took part in this first- or biases they may have; and (3) regarding his professional work,” Anzalone said, “as well as to come, first-served “speed-networking” event. Tey research, how the increasing focus on the most consume as many primary sources as they could moved around the room, talking with Belfer Center extreme and violent Islamist organizations, like so as not to only read about, say, the Egyptian research fellows Scott Anderson, Christopher Islamic State, has impacted the wider coverage Muslim Brotherhood or the Afghanistan Taliban, Anzalone, Matthew Buehler, Morgan Kaplan, and academic study of political Islam. but to also see how these movements/organiza- and Constantine Lainas, and with Cyber Security “I encouraged the students I spoke with to tions portray themselves through their publica- Project Director Michael Sulmeyer, Intelligence develop a list or database of reliable and in-depth tions, films, radio broadcasts, photography, and and Defense Projects Director Kevin Ryan, and news reporting and secondary sources from which communiqués.” Faculty Affiliate and Korean Working Group Director John Park. Te networking event was the idea of Izran Salleh, Kennedy School student (MPP) and chair of the Kennedy School’s International and Global Affairs PIC. Salleh organized the event to give students an opportunity to interact individually with experts in the field to help them think through their career goals and get tips on the best ways to reach their goals. A similar event that he attended, Salleh said, changed the course of his own studies and career plans. Te students who took part in the speed- One on One: Christopher Anzalone (left) listens to questions from an HKS student seeking career and research advice. meetings represented different professional 17 Hot of the Presses

Fragile Rise: Grand Science and Islam: An American Rebel Power: Why Strategy and the Fate Technology Religion National Movements of Imperial Germany, Development in the By Nadia Marzouki, Research Fellow, Compete, Fight, and 1871–1914 Gulf States: Economic Middle East Initiative Win Columbia University Press By Xu Qiyu, translated by Joshua Hill Diversification (April 2017) By Peter Krause, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program Belfer Center Studies in International through Regional Security / MIT Press (2017) Cornell University Press (May 2017) Collaboration Edited by Afreen Siddiqi, Visiting Islam: An American Religion Scholar, Science, Technology, and Public In Fragile Rise, Xu Qiyu offers a Policy Program and Laura Diaz Anadon, demonstrates how Islam, as formed Many of the world’s states— Chinese perspective on the course Associate, Environment and Natural in the United States, has become from Algeria to Ireland to the Resources Program of German grand strategy in the an American religion in a double United States—are the result of Gerlach Press (2017) decades before World War I. Xu sense—first through the strategies robust national movements that shows how Germany’s diplomatic of recognition adopted by Muslims achieved independence. Many blunders turned its growing power Te Arab states of the Gulf, cur- and second through the perfor- other national movements have into a liability instead of an asset. rently heavily reliant on oil and gas mance of Islam as a faith. failed in their attempts to achieve Bismarck’s successors provoked exports, have stated their intention Nadia Marzouki investigates statehood, including the Basques, tension and conflict with the other to promote economic diversification how Islam has become so conten- the Kurds, and the Palestinians. In European great powers. Germany’s and have embarked on reforming tious in American politics. Focusing Rebel Power, Peter Krause offers a attempts to build a powerful navy existing institutions for higher edu- on the period from 2008–2013, she powerful new theory to explain this alienated Britain. Fearing an asser- cation, scientific research, and tech- revisits the uproar over the con- variation focusing on the internal tive Germany, France and Russia nology innovation. Te region has struction of mosques, legal disputes balance of power among nationalist formed an alliance, leaving the witnessed huge population growth around the prohibition of Islamic groups, who cooperate with each declining Austro-Hungarian Empire in recent decades, and in some cases law, and the overseas promotion of other to establish a new state while as Germany’s only major ally. (e.g. Saudi Arabia) almost half the religious freedom. She argues that simultaneously competing to lead it. Xu’s account demonstrates that population is under the age of public controversies over Islam in better strategy and statesmanship twenty-five and in need of access the United States primarily reflect “Rebel Power makes a crucial could have made a difference—for to quality education and meaning- the American public’s profound contribution to our understanding Germany and Europe. His anal- ful employment opportunities. Tis divisions and ambivalence toward of when and why national liberation ysis offers important lessons for book provides an in-depth discus- freedom of speech and the legiti- movements succeed and use violence. the leaders of China and other sion of what is needed to accelerate macy of liberal secular democracy. Peter Krause offers a theoretically countries. the development of science, tech- innovative and empirically rich inter- “Full of critical insights for a how a nology, and innovation in the Gulf. “Marzouki provides a unique pretation of the ecology of nationalist newly rising power in today’s world Among other issues, the authors approach to contemporary civil wars.” can appropriately manage Great Power discuss the need for regional col- American political discourse sur- —Tanisha M. Fazal, relations, consolidate domestic society, laboration and tackle systemic chal- rounding Islam and documents vital University of Notre Dame and coordinate foreign policy.” lenges such as immigration policies, results likely to remain relevant to —Mei Zhaorong, former Chinese career incentives for GCC citizens, readers in the United States and ambassador to Germany and former and increased inclusion of women Europe for quite some time.” President of the Chinese People’s in the workforce. Institute of Foreign Affairs —Denise A. Spellberg, University of Texas at Austin Compiled by Susan Lynch, ISP/STPP 18 18 Newsmakers

Nunn Honored with Lifetime Holgate Awarded Kazakh Achievement Award Independence Medal

Former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn, a member Laura Holgate, former Ambassador and U.S. EMBASSY KAZAKH of the Belfer Center’s International Council, Representative to UN-Vienna and IAEA, a senior received Emory Law School’s Centennial Lifetime fellow with the Belfer Center, was awarded the Achievement Award at the School’s Centennial Kazakhstan 25th Anniversary of Independence celebration in April. An alumnus of the School, Medal during a ceremony in April at the Kazakh Nunn was honored for his many legislative Embassy in Washington, D.C. Kazakhstan accomplishments including the Department of Ambassador to the U.S. Erzhan Kazykhanov Defense Reorganization Act and the Nunn-Lugar presented the award to Holgate for her many Cooperative Threat Reduction Program, which years of work with Kazakh ofcials to secure provided assistance to Russia and the former nuclear weapons and materials left in the Kazakh Ambassador Erzhan Kazykhanov thanks Soviet republics to secure and destroy their country following the breakup of the former Amb. Laura Holgate for her service to his country. excess nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons. Soviet Union.

Moniz Receives Richard E. Sanger Wins Pulitzer for Dobriansky Receives Neustadt Award Reporting on Russia Martha Washington Medal

Former Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz, now a David Sanger, New York Times National Security Former Ambassador and Under Secretary of senior fellow with the Belfer Center, was honored Correspondent and the Belfer Center’s Senior State Paula Dobriansky, a senior fellow with in April with the Richard E. Neustadt Award. The Fellow for National Security and the Press, won the Center’s Future of Diplomacy Project, award, presented to Moniz by Harvard Kennedy a Pulitzer Prize for international reporting as received the Martha Washington Medal from the School Dean Douglas Elmendorf, is bestowed part of a Times’ team that wrote “Russia’s Dark Washington, D.C. Chapter of the National Society annually to honor individuals who have created Arts,” an investigative series that chronicled the of the Sons of the American Revolution. The exceptional solutions to signiﬁcant problems in covert and sometimes deadly actions taken by medal, which was presented during a ceremony public policy. Moniz was praised for advancing President Vladimir Putin’s government to grow in April, is bestowed on women in recognition of energy technology innovation, nuclear security Russian inﬂuence abroad. The series, which their outstanding public service. Dobriansky was and strategic stability, and environmental began last spring, included Sanger’s co-authored also guest speaker for the event. stewardship. He also played a major role in article, “The Perfect Weapon: How Russian developing the Iran nuclear agreement. Cyberpower Invaded the United States.”

The New Era of Counterforce: Technological Would China Go Nuclear? Assessing the Risk of Change and the Future of Nuclear Deterrence Chinese Nuclear Escalation in a Conventional War with the United States Vol. 41 No. 4 Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press Spring 2017 Caitlin Talmadge Nuclear deterrence has long depended on nuclear arsenals’ ability to survive an adversary’s first strike. Technological Would China escalate to nuclear use in a conventional International Security is America’s advances, however, are undermining deterrence by eroding war with the United States? It might if it believed that U.S. arsenals’ survivability. Tus, the United States should conventional attacks threatened the survivability of Chi- leading journal of security affairs. enhance its counterforce capabilities and avoid reducing its nese nuclear forces or that a U.S. counterforce attack was Te International Security journal nuclear forces. imminent. Te United States will face difficult trade-offs in is edited at Harvard Kennedy managing escalation risks. School’s Belfer Center and Bullets for Ballots: Electoral Participation The Illusion of International Prestige Provisions and Enduring Peace after Civil Conflict published quarterly by the MIT Jonathan Mercer Aila M. Matanock Press. Questions may be directed to Te conventional wisdom that prestige enhances states’ au- [email protected]. Which peace agreements are most likely to prevent civil con- thority is wrong. Policymakers rely on their feelings about flicts from recurring? Agreements mandating that both rebels their state to evaluate its prestige rather than analyzing and government participate in elections have a greater chance other states’ views, and they discount other states’ prestige. of succeeding, because such elections attract monitoring by States should thus avoid costly pursuits of prestige. international organizations that can enforce agreements.

Ethnic Cleansing and Its Alternatives in Wartime: A Comparison of the Austro-Hungarian, Ottoman, and Russian Empires H. Zeynep Bulutgil Follow us on Twitter @journal_is When do states carry out mass violence against minority ethnic groups collaborating with adversaries during wartime? Comparing the policies of the Austro-Hungarian, Ottoman, and Russian Empires during World War I shows that states with Compiled by International Security staf inﬂuential political organizations reﬂecting non-ethnic identities are less likely to pursue mass killings.

19 Nonproft Org. U.S. Postage PAID Nashua, NH Te Robert and Renée Belfer Center for Permit No. 375 Science and International Aﬀairs Graham Allison, Director 79 John F. Kennedy Street Cambridge, MA 02138 Tel: 617-495-1400 www.belfercenter.org Belfer Center Newsletter, Summer 2017 Editor: Sharon Wilke, Assoc. Director, Communications [email protected] Designer: Andrew Facini, Publications & Design Coordinator [email protected] Josh Burek, Director, Global Communications and Strategy [email protected] Arielle Dworkin, Digital Communications Manager [email protected] Bennett Craig, Photographer/Multimedia Producer [email protected] The Belfer Center has a dual mission: (1) to provide leadership in advancing policy-relevant The Communications Ofce was assisted with this newsletter by knowledge about the most important challenges of international security and other critical issues Monica Achen, Josh Coe, Bret Hauf, Eugene Kogan, Nathan Levine, Martin Malin, Susan Lynch, John Park, and Afreen Siddiqi. where science, technology, environmental policy, and international afairs intersect, and (2) to All photos by Belfer Center unless otherwise noted. prepare future generations of leaders for these arenas. Subscribe to Belfer Center publications at belfercenter.org/subscribe

In Memory of Colleagues and Friends

Elizabeth S. Rogers Thomas C. Schelling

Elizabeth (Beth) Rogers, a Belfer Center Harvard Kennedy School faculty and staf alumna, friend, and colleague of many at the Center, joined with other colleagues, friends, and family passed away in February after a lengthy illness. A of Thomas C. Schelling on May 1 to celebrate the

number of Center colleagues attended a celebra- life of a man who was a major figure at the Kennedy MARTHA STEWART tion of her life in early April. School and throughout the world. Schelling died Rogers first joined the Belfer Center in 1997 as COURTESY ROGERS FAMILY December 2016 at the age of 95. an International Security Program (ISP) research Schelling was awarded the Nobel Prize for fellow. She was an ISP associate from 1997-2000 Economics in 2005 for his work in game theory anal- and again from 2005-2010. ysis, a then new way of looking at issues ranging from She taught political science and international nuclear strategy to climate change and addictive relations at Case Western Reserve in Cleveland and behavior. His work on nuclear deterrence helped later at Harvard Extension School and remained shape Cold War strategies. At the height of his influ- active in the international relations field. ence on public policy in the 1960s, he advised President Kennedy during the Berlin Rogers was married to another former Center alumnus, Stephen Van crisis and came up with the idea of a hotline between Washington and Moscow. Evera, a professor at MIT. Among his many achievements, Schelling also was a major figure in shaping “Beth Rogers was a wonderful colleague—warm, generous, enthusiastic, the Kennedy School. In 1969, he helped design a new curriculum not for public and optimistic,” said Steven Miller, Director of the International Security administrators, but for a new generation of leaders literate in public policy. Program. “It was a pleasure to have her in our community.” “Tom was the most lucid, most incisive, most insightful mind among the stellar band of founding fathers of Harvard’s Kennedy School,” said Belfer Center Director and former Kennedy School Dean Graham Allison.

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