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Maintaining America's Edge TECHNOLOGY AND NATIONAL SECURITY MAINTAINING AMERICA’S EDGE Introduction by Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Condoleezza Rice, and Nicholas Burns Edited by Leah Bitounis and Jonathon Price CONTRIBUTORS INCLUDE: Edward Alden, Nicholas Burns, Ash Carter, Jack Clark, Jared Cohen, John Deutch, John Dowdy, Diana Farrell, Walter Isaacson, Chandru Krishnamurthy, Katherine Mansted, Jason Matheny, Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Penny Pritzker, Condoleezza Rice, Eric Rosenbach, and Laura Rosenberger Copyright © 2019 by The Aspen Institute The Aspen Institute 2300 N Street, N.W. Suite 700 Washington, DC 20037 Published in the United States of America in 2019 by The Aspen Institute All rights reserved Printed in the United States of America ISBN: 978-0-578-42795-9 Wye Publication Number: 19/001 Cover design by: Steve Johnson Interior layout by: Sogand Sepassi aspen strategy group Aspen Strategy Group Leadership CHAIR EMERITUS ASPEN INSTITUTE PRESIDENT Brent Scowcroft Daniel Porterfield President President and CEO The Scowcroft Group, Inc. The Aspen Institute CO-CHAIRS MEMBERS Joseph S. Nye, Jr. Madeleine K. Albright University Distinguished Service Chair Professor Emeritus Albright Stonebridge Group Harvard Kennedy School Graham Allison Condoleezza Rice Douglas Dillon Professor of Government Senior Fellow Harvard Kennedy School Hoover Institution Stanford University Christian Brose Staff Director Senate Armed Services Committee DIRECTOR Nicholas Burns Sylvia Burwell Goodman Family Professor of the Practice President of Diplomacy and International Relations American University Harvard Kennedy School Kurt Campbell Chairman and CEO DEPUTY DIRECTOR The Asia Group, LLC Jonathon Price Deputy Director Ash Carter Aspen Strategy Group Director Belfer Center, Harvard Kennedy School SPECIAL PROJECTS OFFICER James Cartwright Leah Bitounis Inaugural Chairholder, Special Projects Officer Harold Brown Chair Aspen Strategy Group Center for Strategic and International Studies Eliot Cohen John Hamre Robert E. Osgood Professor of President and CEO Strategic Studies Center for Strategic and International Johns Hopkins University’s School of Studies Advanced International Studies Jane Harman Richard Cooper President, Director, and CEO Professor of Economics The Woodrow Wilson International Harvard University Center for Scholars John Deutch David Ignatius Professor Columnist and Associate Editor MIT The Washington Post Tom Donilon Anja Manuel Chairman Principal BlackRock Investment Institute RiceHadleyGates LLC Diana Farrell Jessica Mathews President and CEO Distinguished Fellow JPMorgan Chase Institute Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Peter Feaver Professor David McCormick Duke University Co-CEO Bridgewater Associates Dianne Feinstein Senator (D-CA) Sam Nunn United States Senate Co-Chair Nuclear Threat Initiative Michèle Flournoy Co-Founder and Managing Partner Meghan O’Sullivan WestExec Advisors Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice of International Affairs and Director of the Mike Green Geopolitics of Energy Project Senior Vice President for Asia Harvard Kennedy School Center for Strategic and International Studies William Perry Professor Stephen Hadley Stanford University Principal RiceHadleyGates LLC Dina Powell Managing Director Goldman Sachs Penny Pritzker Anne-Marie Slaughter Chairman and Founder President and CEO PSP Partners New America Tom Pritzker Jim Steinberg Executive Chairman Professor Hyatt Hotels Corporation Syracuse University Jack Reed Dan Sullivan Senator (D-RI) Senator (R-AK) United States Senate United States Senate Susan Rice Fran Townsend Distinguished Visiting Research Fellow EVP, Worldwide Government, School of International Service, Legal and Business Affairs American University MacAndrews & Forbes, Inc. Carla Anne Robbins Dov Zakheim Faculty Director, MIA Program, Senior Fellow Baruch College CNA Adjunct Sr. Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations Philip Zelikow White Burkett Miller Professor of History Susan Schwab University of Virginia Professor of Public Policy, University of Maryland Robert Zoellick Strategic Advisor, Mayer Brown LLP Chairman AllianceBernstein Smita Singh Former Founding Director of the Global Development Program William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Acknowledgements his book is a product of many individuals who have generously given their time Tand talent to produce what you hold in your hands today. First, we thank the chapter authors who not only wrote papers, but came to Aspen to share their ideas, have them challenged, edit their papers accordingly, and produce the stellar chapters that make up this book. They are the true experts, and we are grateful for their willingness to share their expertise with our group and the public. Second, we thank our Aspen Strategy Group members who give their time every summer to come together in a nonpartisan manner to read, discuss, learn, and contribute solutions to the most pressing problems facing America. In a time of unrelenting partisanship, it is heartening to see that at the seminar table, politics does indeed stop at the water’s edge. All our Republicans, Democrats, and independents are committed to finding the best way forward to ensure America’s interests and secure its future. Third, we thank the Aspen staff who spent many hours turning these papers into the latest edition of our policy book series. Gayle Bennett, our long-time editor of ASG publications, goes through every page of this book to ensure the highest quality possible—we appreciate your excellence. Steve Johnson and Sogand Sepassi do a masterful job on layout and design—thank you. And of course, our superb team of Scowcroft Fellows this summer—Brian Hopkins and Megan Lamberth—your dedication to this project demonstrates the very bright careers you have in front of you. Fourth, we are extremely grateful to all of the Aspen Strategy Group’s friends, sponsors, and funders who support our work to bring these ideas into the community. We are indebted to the Clermont Foundation, the Markle Foundation, Robert Rosenkranz and Alexandra Munroe, The Stanton Foundation, McKinsey & Company, the Margot and Thomas Pritzker Family Foundation, Robert Abernethy, the JPMorgan Chase Institute, Leah Joy Zell, The John Anson Kittredge Educational Fund, Lynda and Stewart Resnick, Dick and Gail Elden, Gail Engleberg, Adam Metz, and the Feldman Foundation. Without their support, this book would not have been possible. Finally, we simply could not do what we do without our superb co-chairs Joe Nye and Condi Rice. Joe, who founded this group over three decades ago, and Condi, who was first brought to this group by Brent Scowcroft, moderate the conversations, ask 8 Technology And National Security: Maintaining America’s Edge hard questions, and serve as the very definition of what our public servants should aspire to be—we are grateful for your leadership. As we navigate these uncertain times, it is reassuring to know that such a large community is committed to maintaining America’s edge and securing its future. Contents Introduction .......................................................11 Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Condoleezza Rice, and Nicholas Burns The Tenth Annual Ernest May Memorial Lecture ......................19 Shaping Disruptive Technological Change for Public Good Ash Carter CHAPTER 1 Four Emerging Technologies and National Security ...................33 Jason Matheny CHAPTER 2 Artificial Intelligence and Countries: What Might Happen, What We’d Like to Happen, What We Should Avoid Letting Happen...............41 Jack Clark CHAPTER 3 Technology and the Future of Work..................................51 Diana Farrell CHAPTER 4 The National and Economic Security Imperative of Helping More Americans Adapt and Thrive ........................................63 Penny Pritzker and Edward Alden CHAPTER 5 Defense in the Twenty-First Century: How Artificial Intelligence Might Change the Character of Conflict ..................................... 79 John Dowdy and Chandru Krishnamurthy CHAPTER 6 Can Democracy Survive the Information Age? .......................95 Eric Rosenbach and Katherine Mansted CHAPTER 7 Countering Technologically Driven Information Manipulation ........115 Laura Rosenberger CHAPTER 8 Confronting Hybrid Warriors and the Disinformation Tactics They Use ....................................137 Jared Cohen CHAPTER 9 Assessing and Responding to China’s Innovation Initiative ..........149 John Deutch CHAPTER 10 The Sources of America’s Innovative Edge ..........................169 Walter Isaacson Introduction 11 Introduction Navigating Uncharted Territory in the Technological Era Joseph S. Nye, Jr. Condoleezza Rice Nicholas Burns Co-Chair, Co-Chair, Director, Aspen Strategy Group Aspen Strategy Group Aspen Strategy Group n August 2018, the nonpartisan Aspen Strategy Group (ASG) convened its thirty- Ifourth annual meeting in Aspen, Colorado. Over the course of three days, ASG members and invited experts from government, universities, think tanks, and the private sector debated the impact of dramatic technological change over the next decade on American national security. Our conversations covered a wide breadth of emerging technologies—artificial intelligence, machine learning, quantum computing, and biotechnology—and the challenges they pose to America’s military, the intelligence community, U.S. economic power, and democratic institutions. Our group grappled with the central dilemma of how the U.S. government can harness these technologies—developed primarily in the private sector and research labs—to compete with China
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