CASPIAN STUDIES PROGRAM Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project Kennedy School of Government Harvard University NEWSLETTER JANUARY 2002 Program Chair: Graham Allison Program Director: Melissa Carr Editor: John Grennan

This Caspian Studies Program (CSP) newsletter highlights CSP activities that occurred during Fall 2001.

CSP RESEARCH DIRECTOR SHAFFER TESTIFIES IN CONGRESS

On October 10, the Caspian the Center for Strategic and helped shape the discussion in Studies Program’s Research International Studies (CSIS). policy circles. These Director Brenda Shaffer gave a In her testimony, Shaffer recommendations included briefing on the Caspian region to outlined the Caspian region’s supporting an East-West the U.S. House of development into an important petroleum pipeline in the Representatives International alternative source of oil. She Caspian region and making a Relations Committee. The also indicated that the United serious effort to repeal sanctions hearing was convened by Elton States has an opportunity to against Azerbaijan. Gallegly (R-CA) and Earl establish strong relationships Shaffer’s testimony was Hilliard (D-AL), the chairman with the Muslim countries of the widely covered in the and ranking member of the region. Azerbaijani press and cited as a House European Subcommittee, The recommendations Shaffer key turning point in the debate respectively. made in her testimony, and in over Section 907 sanctions In addition to Dr. Shaffer, the her earlier CSP Policy Brief against Azerbaijan. This month, hearing featured scholars from “U.S. Policy toward the Caspian President Bush signed a bill that the School of Advanced Region: Recommendations for waived sanctions against International Studies (SAIS) and the Bush Administration,” have Azerbaijan for one year.

GEORGIAN PRESIDENT SHEVARDNADZE SPEAKS AT KENNEDY SCHOOL

On October 3, Georgian President improving global security in the and former Soviet Foreign Minister post-September 11th world. Eduard Shevardnadze addressed Shevardnadze expressed his the Harvard community, speaking belief that the greatest challenge on the topic of “Searching for facing leaders in the new Security in a Changing World.” century is to address the The speech marked the tenth widening gap between rich and anniversary of Georgia’s poor countries. independence and was sponsored by He also discussed Georgia’s the Caspian Studies Program and own security situation— the Institute of Politics. including its desire to join In his discussion of terrorism and NATO, its evolving relationship other security challenges, with Russia, and the civil war in Shevardnadze said that international Abkhazia. institutions such as the United Nations could play a key role in Photograph by Martha Stewart

Caspian Studies Program 1 CSP PUBLICATIONS AND MEDIA

CSP Chair Offers Commentary CSP’s Shaffer on a ‘Caspian Alternative About Kazakhstan in Boston Globe . . . to OPEC’ in Wall Street Journal

Immediately following the visit of Kazakhstani In the November 7 Wall Street Journal, CSP President Nursultan Nazarbayev to the United Research Director Brenda Shaffer published an States in December, Caspian Studies Program article in which she discussed the security risks Chair Graham Allison wrote an op-ed piece in the associated with the United States’ current reliance Boston Globe on January 6 about Kazakhstan’s on Persian Gulf oil and new opportunities in the oil leadership in the campaign against the proliferation industries of Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. of nuclear weapons. Nonproliferation is a Shaffer’s article indicated that increased flows of significant strategic issue facing the region and an Caspian oil, while not serving as a replacement for issue that Professor Allison knows well. When he oil from countries like Saudi Arabia, could help to served as assistant secretary of defense in the reduce the power the OPEC cartel has in Clinton administration, Allison worked with determining international oil prices. She also President Nazarbayev to discussed the need to make Kazakhstan a non- resolve the Nagorno- nuclear state. Karabagh conflict in The article explained order to improve the that Kazakhstan is more security situation than just an oil-rich state. within the region. It is also a leader in IN ADDITION: regional affairs and can continue to be a positive Elchin Amirbayov, force in the campaign for counselor on nuclear nonproliferation. political affairs at According to Allison, Azerbaijan’s Mission Nazarbayev has the best to NATO, wrote opportunity among “Shusha’s Pivotal regional leaders to broker Role in a Nagorno- the completion of the Karabagh Settlement, ” the latest installment in the Central Asian Nuclear Weapons-Free Zone Treaty. Caspian Studies Policy Brief series. Amirbayov . . . and for TASS TV was previously a United States Azerbaijan Chamber of Commerce (USACC) Fellow and After this piece appeared in the Boston Globe, completed the Senior Executives in National and TASS TV of Russia and Kazakhstan interviewed International Security Program at the Kennedy Dr. Allison about Kazakhstan’s role in nuclear School in 2000. nonproliferation. In August, Pavel Baev, senior researcher at the CSP’s Allison Provides Introduction for International Peace Research Institute in Oslo, President Nazarbayev’s Book published “Russia Refocuses its Policies in the Southern Caucasus,” the first CSP Working Paper. During this past summer, CSP Chair Graham Allison also wrote the introduction to President Brenda Shaffer was profiled in Investor’s Nursultan Nazarbayev’s Epicenter of Peace, a Business Daily on November 8, as part of the book that provides a first-hand account of feature article “Caspian Oil Fields Increase in Kazakhstan’s role in combating nuclear Significance with Gulf Volatility.” She was proliferation. In his introduction, Allison lauded interviewed by several media outlets in the Fall of Nazarbayev for convincing Kazakhstan to 2001, including The New York Times and The relinquish the nuclear arsenal it inherited when the Washington Times, as well as many publications in Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. Turkey, Israel, and Azerbaijan. She is also the author of the recently-published and widely- distributed Caspian Studies Program Policy Brief, For more information on CSP Publications, visit “U.S. Policy toward the Caspian Region: our web site www.ksg.harvard.edu/bcsia/sdi Recommendations for the Bush Administration.”

Caspian Studies Program 2 CSP SEMINARS AND OUTREACH

On September 27, Nurlan Kapparov, former Brenda Shaffer, the research director of the Kazakhstani vice-minister of energy and mineral Caspian Studies Program, has had an active past resources, spoke at the Belfer Center Director's few months of policy outreach and conference Seminar on the topic of oil and other natural energy activities in Europe and the Caucasus. Some resources in Kazakhstan. Mr. Kapparov also highlights are described below: addressed the political relationship between Kazakhstan, Russia, and the West in terms of oil · In her two most recent trips to the Caspian region, Shaffer held meetings with Azerbaijani and Caspian Sea development. government leaders, as well as members of the international business and diplomatic communities in Baku. In September, she met with Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Vilayat Guliyev, as well as high- ranking members of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of National Security. She also met with leaders of SOCAR, ExxonMobil, BP Azerbaijan, and CSO Aker Maritime Offshore, LTD., in order to discuss energy policy and the strategic situation in the Caspian region. In November, at the invitation of President Heydar Aliyev, she attended the Azerbaijanis of the World Forum in Baku. During this trip, she discussed policy issues with Ross Wilson, the U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan. Nurlan Kapparov with CSP Chair Graham Allison at the Kennedy School on September 27. · Shaffer also gave several presentations at policy Photograph from BCSIA Archives conferences in Europe. In October, she traveled to

On October 16, Brenda Shaffer, Doug Blum Brussels to participate in a conference on conflicts (Brown University), Markus Fischer (Pitzer in the southern Caucasus. This meeting was College), Gerard Libaridian (University of sponsored by TESEV, the leading independent Michigan), and Yusup Magdiev (Harvard foreign policy think tank in Turkey. In December, University) convened and discussed “Culture and Shaffer gave a presentation on “Implications of the Foreign Policy: Islam and the Caspian.” This was September 11 Events for Central Asia and the the first of two meetings that will lead to Culture Caucasus” at the Landau Network-Centro Volta Conference on energy issues, held in Como, Italy. and Foreign Policy: Islam and the Caspian Region, an edited volume to be published in 2002. · Shaffer continues her extensive involvement

Anna Politkovskaya, special correspondent for with Israeli policymakers. In August, she Novaya Gazeta and author of A Dirty War: A participated in a conference of Israeli ambassadors Russian Reporter in Chechnya, spoke at a Caspian to the former Soviet Union held in Warsaw, where Studies Program event held at the Kennedy School she met with Foreign Minister Shimon Peres and on November 19. Ms. Politkovskaya discussed the other Israeli diplomatic leaders. In December, she current situation in Chechnya, as well as her own gave a lecture on Caucasus and Central Asian experience working on the ground in the region. issues to Israel’s National Security Council.

Maury Devine, a fellow at the Caspian Studies The tragic events of September 11 and their program since 2000, continues her work among the repercussions have raised the profile of the Caspian Caspian and energy policy-making communities in region and its strategic importance in the eyes of Washington, D.C. Her recent activities include many Americans. CSP Chair Graham Allison and involvement in the Center for Strategic and Research Director Brenda Shaffer—as well as CSP International Studies (CSIS) Energy Program. program staff and fellows—have been actively

engaged in ongoing discussions with members of the Bush administration, Congress, and Caspian regional leaders, as they formulate and analyze their response to terrorism and its implications for the countries of the Caspian region.

Caspian Studies Program 3 CSP NEWS

CSP Chair Graham Allison introduced Senator Charles Hagel (R-NE), at the Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics Forum on October 17. In his speech, Hagel advocated repealing sanctions against certain foreign countries—including Azerbaijan. Hagel was recently named to the Senate Central Asia and Caucasus Subcommittee. Photograph by Thomas J. Fitzsimmons

On September 25, CSP Research Director Brenda Shaffer, U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan Ross Wilson, and Azerbaijani Ambassador to the United States Hafiz Pashayev spoke at a ceremony held at the U.S. Embassy in Baku for recent Azerbaijani graduates of Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government. The event, which was co-sponsored by the U.S. Embassy in Azerbaijan and the Caspian Studies Program, honored Azerbaijani graduates of the Kennedy School’s Executive Education and Master’s Degree Programs, as well as the sponsors who funded their studies—ExxonMobil, Chevron, CSO Aker Maritime Offshore, LTD., CCC, ETPM, and Statoil. In December, one of these former students of the Kennedy School, Afgan Abdullayev, won the Edmund Muskie/Freedom Support Award from the U.S. Department of State Cultural Affairs and Social Relations Bureau.

On November 1-3, the Kennedy School held its Fifth Annual Russian Investment Symposium—the world’s leading forum for business and government leaders from the United States and Russia to discuss the business climate in Russia. One panel focused on foreign investment in the oil and gas sector and highlighted the countries of the Caspian region. This panel was moderated by Thane Gustafson of the Cambridge Energy Research Associates and included high-level representatives from ExxonMobil, BP, Access Industries, and Rosneftegazstroy.

The Kennedy School faculty continues to incorporate Caspian issues more fully into the curriculum. In December, Professor Keith Allred invited Nagorno-Karabagh’s representative to the United States, Vardan Barseghyan, to address his Negotiations class and engage graduate students in discussing possible solutions to the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Mohammad Haririakbari, professor of social sciences at Tabriz University in Iran, has joined the Caspian Studies Program as a visiting scholar for the 2001-2002 academic year. While he is in the United States, he will be focusing his research on emerging socio-cultural phenomenon in Iranian Azerbaijan, as well as new possible pipeline routes for Caspian energy.

The Caspian Studies Program seeks to locate the Caspian region on the maps of the American policy- making community as an area in which the United States has important national interests and where U.S. policy can make major differences. Through its research and teaching, the Caspian Studies Program helps raise the profile of the region’s opportunities and problems and utilizes Harvard resources to train new leaders who will shape the future of the region.

SDI PROJECT, BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS JFK SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT, HARVARD UNIVERSITY 79 JFK STREET, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02138 Phone: (617) 496-1565 Fax: (617) 496-8779 Email: [email protected] Website: http://ksg.harvard.edu/BCSIA/SDI

Graham Allison, Chair Melissa Carr, Program Director Brenda Shaffer, Research Director Maury Devine, Fellow Annaliis Abrego, Administrative Assistant Mohammad Haririakbari, Fellow John Grennan, Research Assistant

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