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Baku Dialoguesbaku Dialogues Policy Perspectives on the Silk Road Region BAKU DIALOGUESBAKU DIALOGUES POLICY PERSPECTIVES ON THE SILK ROAD REGION Vol. 4 | No. 1 | Fall 2020 Silk Road Region as Global Keystone? Geopolitics & Connectivity in the Heart of the World Between Eurasia and the Middle East Geopolitical Keystone Svante Cornell Nikolas K. Gvosdev Against ‘the Blob’ Not A Top European Priority Michael A. Reynolds Amanda Paul Five-Star Hubs Eurasia, the Hegemon, and the Three Sovereigns Taleh Ziyadov Pepe Escobar Silk Road Pathways Completing the Southern Gas Corridor Yu Hongjun Akhmed Gumbatov Taking Stock of Regional Quandaries The Karabakh Peace Process Dennis Sammut Iran’s Longstanding Cooperation with Armenia Brenda Shaffer The OSCE and Minorities in the Silk Road Region Lamberto Zannier Profile in Leadership Zbigniew Brzezinski: My Friendship with America’s Geopolitical Sage Hafiz Pashayev Baku Dialogues Interview Strategic Equilibrium: Azerbaijan’s Foreign Policy Hikmat Hajiyev 1 Vol. 4 | No. 1 | Fall 2020 ISSN Print: 2709-1848 ISSN Online: 2709-1856 BAKU DIALOGUES BAKU DIALOGUESBAKU DIALOGUES POLICY PERSPECTIVES ON THE SILK ROAD REGION Vol. 4 | No. 1 | Fall 2020 Silk Road Region as Global Keystone? Geopolitics & Connectivity in the Heart of the World Between Eurasia and the Middle East Geopolitical Keystone Svante Cornell Nikolas K. Gvosdev Against ‘the Blob’ Not A Top European Priority Michael A. Reynolds Amanda Paul Five-Star Hubs Eurasia, the Hegemon, and the Three Sovereigns Taleh Ziyadov Pepe Escobar Silk Road Pathways Completing the Southern Gas Corridor Yu Hongjun Akhmed Gumbatov Taking Stock of Regional Quandaries The Karabakh Peace Process Dennis Sammut Iran’s Longstanding Cooperation with Armenia Brenda Shaffer The OSCE and Minorities in the Silk Road Region Lamberto Zannier Profile in Leadership Zbigniew Brzezinski: My Friendship with America’s Geopolitical Sage Hafiz Pashayev Baku Dialogues Interview Strategic Equilibrium: Azerbaijan’s Foreign Policy Hikmat Hajiyev Vol. 4 | No. 1 | Fall 2020 2 3 Vol. 4 | No. 1 | Fall 2020 BAKU DIALOGUES BAKU DIALOGUESBAKU DIALOGUES POLICY PERSPECTIVES ON THE SILK ROAD REGION bakudialogues.ada.edu.az Published by ADA University Baku, Azerbaijan Under the editorial direction of Mr. Fariz Ismailzade, Editor-in-Chief Executive Vice Rector, ADA University In conjunction with Mr. Damjan Krnjević Mišković, Senior Editorial Consultant Director of Policy Research and Publications, ADA University And through the counsel of the Editorial Advisory Council of Baku Dialogues H.E. Dr. Hafiz Pashayev, chairperson Mr. Nasimi Aghayev H.E. Mr. Hikmet Çetin H.E. Mr. Tedo Japaridze Prof. Dr. Jeffrey D. Sachs H.E. Mr. Sodik Safayev Prof. Dr. Samad Seyidov Prof. Dr. S. Frederick Starr Mr. S. Enders Wimbush Mr. Fikrat Malikov, Layout and Print Production Creative Services Manager, ADA University Mrs. Kamilla Zeynalova, Marketing, Internet, and Social Media Development Marketing Manager, ADA University Please direct all inquiries, submissions, and proposals via email to [email protected]. Submission guidelines are available on the Baku Dialogues website: bakudialogues.ada.edu.az. The content of Baku Dialogues is copyrighted by its publisher. All rights reserved. Copyright © 2020 ADA University. No part of this publication may be reproduced, hosted, or distributed, in whole or in part, in any form or by any means, without prior written permission from Baku Dialogues. To seek permission, please send an email to [email protected]. Baku Dialogues is an independent policy journal. The content of each issue of the journal (e.g. essays, interviews, profiles, etc.) thus does not represent any institutional viewpoint. The analyses provided and viewpoints expressed by the authors featured in Baku Dialogues do not necessarily reflect those of its publisher, editors, consultants, Editorial Advisory Council members, and anyone else affiliated with ADA University orBaku Dialogues. Our sole acceptance of Vol. 4 | No. 1 | Fall 2020 4 responsibility is the provision of a forum dedicated5 to intellectual discussionVol. 4 and | No. debate. 1 | Fall 2020 BAKU DIALOGUES BAKU DIALOGUESBAKU DIALOGUES POLICY PERSPECTIVES ON THE SILK ROAD REGION Editorial Statement The first issue of Baku Dialogues was released in Fall 2014 and was published semi- regularly in the years that followed. The present issue, published in Fall 2020, marks the re- launch of Baku Dialogues, ADA University’s flagship English-language quarterly journal. Henceforth, the publication’s subtitle is Policy Perspectives on the Silk Road Region. This choice reflects a triple intention. First, to cover broadly topics of geopolitical relevance to the overlapping set of regions to which Azerbaijan and its neighbors belong. We thus define the Silk Road region loosely as the geographic space looking west past Anatolia to the warm seas beyond; north across the Caspian towards the Great Plain and the Great Steppe; east to the peaks of the Altai and the arid sands of the Taklamakan; and south towards the Hindu Kush and the Indus valley, looping down around in the direction of the Persian Gulf and across the Fertile Crescent. Second, to focus on contemporary cross-cutting issues that impact on the international position of what we view as one of the few keystone regions of global affairs, ranging from energy politics and infrastructure security to economic development and cultural heritage. Third, the choice of subtitle is indicative of our deep-seated conviction that the comprehensive rejuvenation of a vast region that stood for centuries at the fulcrum of trade, innovation, and refinement requires both a healthy respect of frontiers as sovereign markers of territorial integrity and a farsighted predisposition to ensure the region can continue to grow as a strategic center of attraction for capital, goods, talent, and technologies. The editorial premise of Baku Dialogues is that the Silk Road region is and will remain an important seam of international relations, continuing to serve as (i) a significant political and economic crossroads between various geographies; (ii) an important intercessor between major powers; and (iii) an unavoidable gateway between different blocks of states, regional associations, and civilizational groupings. The intended audience ofBaku Dialogues is diverse: national, regional, and international policymakers, diplomats, officials, legislators, commentators, thought leaders, journalists, business executives, think-tankers, academics, scholars, and students—all those who in one way or another pay attention to issues of consequence affecting the trajectory of this part of the world. As has been the case throughout its publication history, Baku Dialogues is and will remain an independent policy journal. The content of each issue of the journal (e.g. essays, interviews, profiles, etc.) thus does not represent any institutional viewpoint. The analyses provided and viewpoints expressed by the authors featured in Baku Dialogues do not necessarily reflect those of its publisher, editors, consultants, Editorial Advisory Council members, and anyone else affiliated with ADA University or Baku Dialogues. Our sole acceptance of responsibility is the provision of a forum dedicated to intellectual discussion and debate. Vol. 4 | No. 1 | Fall 2020 6 7 Vol. 4 | No. 1 | Fall 2020 BAKU DIALOGUES Table of ContentsBAKU DIALOGUES Vol. 4 | No. 1 | Fall 2020 Essays 10 Between Eurasia and the Middle East: Azerbaijan’s New Geopolitics Svante Cornell 26 Geopolitical Keystone: Azerbaijan and the Global Position of the Silk Road Region Nikolas K. Gvosdev 40 Against ‘the Blob’: America’s Foreign Policy in Eurasia’s Heartland is Becoming its Own Greatest Enemy Michael A. Reynolds 60 Not A Top European Priority: Can the EU Engage Geopolitically in the South Caucasus? Amanda Paul 78 Five-Star Hubs: Conceptual Key to Innovation and Prosperity Taleh Ziyadov 90 Eurasia, the Hegemon, and the Three Sovereigns Pepe Escobar 104 Silk Road Pathways: The China–Central Asia–West Asia Economic Corridor Yu Hongjun 116 Completing the Southern Gas Corridor: SGC in a Post-pandemic World Akhmed Gumbatov 128 The Karabakh Peace Process: Rebuilding Trust for International Engagement Dennis Sammut 142 Iran’s Longstanding Cooperation with Armenia: Domestic Azerbaijani Opposition May be Rising Brenda Shaffer 154 The OSCE and Minorities in the Silk Road Region: Fostering Social Cohesion and Integration Lamberto Zannier Profile in Leadership 170 Zbigniew Brzezinski (1928-2017): My Friendship with America’s Geopolitical Sage Hafiz Pashayev Interview 186 Strategic Equilibrium: Azerbaijan’s Foreign Policy Hikmat Hajiyev Vol. 4 | No. 1 | Fall 2020 8 9 Vol. 4 | No. 1 | Fall 2020 BAKU DIALOGUES BAKU DIALOGUES 1991, Azerbaijan a particular ex- Between Eurasia and has similarly had to Azerbaijan has em- ternal force for confront a reality barked on a foreign poli- their respective se- the Middle East in which outside cy that seeks to maintain curity. Armenia, in powers cannot be functioning relations order to safeguard trusted to respect with all neighbors and the conquest of Azerbaijan’s New Geopolitics the country’ sover- Nagorno-Karabakh avoid making itself de- eignty. Moscow, of and adjoining ter- pendent on any particu- Svante Cornell course, makes no ritories, mortgaged secret of its claim lar power for its security. its independence to a “sphere of priv- to Russia in ex- zerbaijan’s geopolitics have the geopolitics of Eurasia and the ileged interests” in change for mili- changed considerably Middle East have merged, bringing the former Soviet
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