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The Nagorno Karabakh Conflict and the Crisis in Turkey's Domestic INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY POLICY (ISP) WORKING PAPER THE NAGORNO KARABAKH CONFLICT AND THE CRISIS IN TURKEY'S DOMESTIC POLITICS by Arif ASALIOGLU International Institute of the Development of Science Cooperation (MIRNAS) VIENNA 2020 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................... 3 II. ISOLATION LED ANKARA TO THE KARABAKH CRISIS ............................................................................. 6 III. THE ERDOGAN REGIME CONTINUES TO PLAY WITH FIRE AND TO SPREAD FIRE AROUND ITSELF .... 9 IV. “WE SENT MILITANTS TO AZERBAIJAN.” ................................................................................................. 11 V. MOST OF THE TIME IS WASTED ................................................................................................................ 12 VI. RUSSIA AND TURKEY MAY HAVE STRONG DISAGREEMENT ................................................................ 14 VII. CONCLUSION: THE RISK OF CONFRONTATION BETWEEN RUSSIA AND TURKEY ................................ 16 1 ABOUT THE AUTHOR Arif Asalioglu is General Director of the International Institute of the Development of Science Cooperation (MIRNAS). Graduated from the faculty of foreign languages of the Kyiv State Linguistic University. From 2011 to 2014, General Director of the Turkish-Russian Cultural Center, Moscow. Since 2014, General Director of the International Institute for the development of Science Cooperation in Moscow; Expert of Russian-Turkish relations; Founder of the International meeting of Russian and Turkish intellectuals. 2 I. INTRODUCTION The Daily Sabah newspaper published an interview with the representative of Turkish President Recep Erdogan, Ibrahim Kalyn. 1 In the conversation, he said that the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh will be resolved only if the illegal occupation of Azerbaijani territories by Armenia ends. "Since Russia has a serious influence on Armenia and its armed forces are present there, we can discuss this issue with Russia. As a member of the Minsk group, Russia is also responsible. We shouldn't think just about today. We must take steps to end this occupation if we think of the future,” he said.2 Azerbaijan declared "martial law" amid ongoing clashes on the border with Armenia, which began on September 27. This has led to an escalation of tension in the region. Turkey's reports of its support for Azerbaijan raise questions about what calculations Ankara is making about the region. In this case, we may ask: taking into account that Azerbaijan may risk starting a war to change the status quo, what is the strategy or expectation that made Turkey rush at full speed with the slogan "one nation, two states"? Do they think they can bring this war to an end? Or is their goal to slightly oppress Russia in Libya and Syria with the fire kindled in the South Caucasus? In Turkey, the AKP-MHP (The Justice and Development Party - The Nationalist Movement Party) nationalist coalition is no longer able to solve problems inside and outside the country in usual ways. The South Caucasus has been added to the mechanism of conflicts in Syria, 1 https://russiancouncil.ru/analytics-and-comments/columns/middle-east/rossiya-i-turtsiya-mogut- stolknutsya-s-ostrymi-raznoglasiyami/ 2 Ibid 3 Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean. In view of the scale of direct and indirect issues with Russia, this can also be depicted as a Syria-Libya-South Caucasus triangle. Ankara took a step that drew sharp criticism. They sent militants to Azerbaijan. Unfortunately, the militants have become an instrument of Erdogan's foreign policy since the beginning of the Syrian crisis. Turkey has been turned into a jihadist support country.3 Despite the fact that the transfer of militants between Syria and Libya made Turkey a member of the club of "abnormal countries", up to a certain point the situation developed in such a way that all sides were glad. Since 2012, Libyans have been fighting in Syria through the mobilization of jihadists, and now Syrians have been forced to fight in Libya as Turkey's reserve forces. 4 However, the problem of Nagorno Karabakh is fundamentally different. Sunni-jihadist militants were forced to fight on the side of Shiites, whom they considered 'enemies and kafirs (infidels)'. They confirmed this statement. One of the militants said: "We thought that we were going together with the Turks to the Turkish military bases on the border with Armenia. But the Turks are not with us, there is only the Azerbaijani army and they are all Shiites. This doesn't suit me. They are even greater enemies to us than the Jews and Christians. We will not fight with them or support them.". However, from now on, the militants are the elements of the interventionist foreign policy of the Erdogan regime.5 I would like to remind you that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan appealed to the international community to "use all your trump cards to prevent Turkey's intervention". This means that "if it is not stopped, the sides may be drawn into a war. If they do not return 3 https://regnum.ru/news/polit/3081045.html 4 https://russiancouncil.ru/analytics-and-comments/columns/middle-east/rossiya-i-turtsiya-mogut- stolknutsya-s-ostrymi-raznoglasiyami/ 5 https://regnum.ru/news/polit/3081045.html 4 to diplomatic negotiations, then after a certain time we will talk about the danger of a clash between Turkey and Russia”.6 The picture of the causes and consequences of the 30-year conflict keeps both sides one step away from war. While this reality is obvious, Turkey's harsh policy of brushing aside diplomacy is irresponsibly teasing the parties. Hostility towards Armenians is the easiest issue to provoke. This is exactly what is needed for nationalist-heroic flywheels. 6 https://russiancouncil.ru/analytics-and-comments/columns/middle-east/rossiya-i-turtsiya-mogut- stolknutsya-s-ostrymi-raznoglasiyami/ 5 II. ISOLATION LED ANKARA TO THE KARABAKH CRISIS If my observations do not deceive me, this new opening curtain contains traces of Ankara's strategic thinking and scenario. As the unsuccessful leadership of the AKP (The Justice and Development Party) has brought economic difficulties, the problems in domestic politics have reached a serious level. In addition, the foreign policy of the last 5-6 years has been severely criticized. In the following are some examples: With the logistical support of the Turkish and the jihadist armies, in July, Ankara, stopped the advance of the forces of Tobruk/Benghazi government and allowed its allied forces of Tripoli government to capture some cities and military points, suspended its activities, destroying the Vatiye airbase by the forces of the opposing side. When Erdogan said: "It is impossible without taking Sirte/Jufra", the incident completely changed course, the operation was interrupted by all parties without exception. This was not enough, and the parties began to negotiate. The essence of the promise is that Ankara's political influence and oil prospects remain in the air. This wasteful operation, which lasted for several months and received the tacit support of the opposition, brought many losses to the AKP government. Currently, the people in Tripoli are seeking to restore the military and civilian contracts of the order of 30-35 billion dollars that they imposed on Sarac.7 Let's look at the Mediterranean, the Aegean front. Although the front was not literally quieted, energy drilling activities and the warships accompanying the ships did not make any progress. On the contrary, the diplomatic efforts of two EU members, Cyprus and Greece, 7 https://ahvalnews.com/tr/savas/erdoganin-savaslari-yanina-kar-kalmiyor 6 which Ankara took against itself, led to additional support from Germany. If the EU and Greece start negotiations with Ankara, they won’t do that the way Ankara wants. In addition to the EU, the US will also make things more difficult for Ankara in Alexandroupoli and Crete.8 Search for fossil fuels in Cyprus, the nomination of Ankara's candidate Ersin Tatar in the TRNC presidential election, the opening of the Marash/Varosha coast – all these three steps not only strengthen the position of the Republic of southern Cyprus but also deepen Ankara's isolation in the international arena.9 Let's look at the Northern Iraqi and Syrian fronts. Now it is even forbidden to publically discuss the problem-related issues in media. It is clear that, despite the worsening situation, the desired goals were not achieved, and the goal to "eradicate the PKK (The Kurdistan Workers' Party)" is one of those. Before the storm, silence has reigned in Idlib since early March. The parties are constantly tense. Ankara is said to have 25,000 soldiers in the Turkish Armed Forces, in addition to tens of thousands of jihadists. There is no explanation other than the security statement coming from the PKK. In other words, things are not going as well in the occupied regions. Terrible things are happening in Afrin, al-Bab, Azaz, Ras al- Ain, Tel Abyad. Ankara is wisely trying to colonize these places. All government bodies of Turkey have tried to put down roots in the area. But it seems that love cannot be forced. And so a lot of money is wasted.10 In addition, the international press and reports of UN expert organizations track and record in detail huge violations of the human rights and laws of war on the occupied territories. All 8 https://www.setav.org/5-soru-abdnin-dedeagac-yunanistanta-askeri-us-kurmasinin-anlami-ve-turkiyeye- etkisi/ 9 https://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler-dunya-54204797 10 https://odatv4.com/turkiye-hangi-hatalari-yapti-ki-bu-kadar-yalniz-kaldi-21092004.html 7 the secrets have been revealed, and one day the offenders will have to answer for everything. In addition to all these disappointments, Turkey's reputation in international organizations has been damaged as a result of aggressive foreign policy (UN, OSCE, NATO, EU, Arab League). As soon as tension in Syria and Libya is increasing, and in addition to this Turkey had to yield to the requirements of the international community in Eastern Mediterranean, the crisis in the Caucasus may seem quite promising for Erdogan.
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