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Overview of Recent Trends in the Airline Industry

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Overview of Recent Trends in the Airline Industry MITMIT Overview of Recent Trends in ICATICAT the Airline Industry Prof. R. John Hansman With the help of the Faculty and Students of the MIT Global Industry Study Traffic Source: Sage Analysis courtesy Prof Ian Waitz [email protected] MITMIT World Population Distribution & ICATICAT 2002 Air Transportation Activity North America Europe 37% Pax 27% Pax 26% Cargo 28% Cargo ~160 Airlines ~200 Airlines Asia/ ~4100 Airports ~2400 Airports Pacific 26% Pax 36% Cargo Latin America/ ~80 Airlines Middle East Caribbean Africa ~1800 Airports 4% Pax 5% Pax 2% Pax 5% Cargo 3% Cargo 2% Cargo ~20 Airlines ~50 Airlines ~20 Airlines ~230 Airports ~580 Airports ~300 Airports Population Source:http://www.ciesin.org/datasets/gpw/globldem.doc.html Air Transport Source: ICAO, R. Schild/Airbus Passenger and freight traffic represent RPK and FTK share in 2002 MITMIT ICATICAT RPK by Region Scheduled Revenue Passenger-Kilomters by Region 1400 1200 1000 North America Europe 800 Asia and Pacific 600 Latin America & Caribbean RPK (billion) Middle East 400 Africa 200 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: ICAO, scheduled services of commercial air carriers MITMIT ICATICAT Freight Trends by Region Freight Tonne-Kilomters by Region 45 40 35 North America 30 Europe 25 Asia and Pacific 20 Latin America & Caribbean FTK (billion) FTK 15 Middle East Africa 10 5 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: ICAO, scheduled services of commercial air carriers MITMIT Rapid Cargo Growth ICATICAT since Mid 90s US Scheduled Pax Traffic vs. Cargo Traffic 500 Pax (RPM) Freight (FTM) 400 300 200 100 Normalized Traffic Index (1978=100) Index Traffic Normalized 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: Form41 data, all US carriers MITMIT Impact of September 11 ICATICAT US Domestic RPMs Domestic Traffic -- RPMs (Billions) 50 45 40 35 30 25 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: ATA Monthly Passenger Traffic Report Source: ATA, US member airlines, scheduled mainline service MITMIT Cargo Traffic Is Immunized ICATICAT (US Monthly Scheduled FTMs) Scheduled Cargo Traffic -- FTMs (Billions) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: ATA Monthly Passenger Traffic Report Source: Form41, all US carriers, scheduled cargo traffic MITMIT US Airline Load Factors 2000-2003 ICATICAT Monthly Load Factor -- System (Percent) 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 50 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: ATA Monthly Passenger Traffic Report Source: ATA, US member airlines, scheduled mainline service MITMIT Annual Change in Average ICATICAT Domestic Fare (2000-2004) Average Domestic Air Fare (Percent Change from Previous Year) 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 -25 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: ATA Monthly Airfare Report; eight US major airlines excluding Southwest (WN) MITMIT Airline Profitability Impact of ICATICAT Sept 11 Slow Recovery Quick Recovery $/ASM$/ASM Security costs Insolvency CASM RASM 9/11-9/13 TimeTime MITMIT All Major Carriers On “Slow Recovery” ICATICAT Trajectory Except Southwest $800 9/11 Attacks $400 $0 2000Q1 2000Q3 2001Q1 2001Q3 2002Q1 2002Q3 2003Q1 2003Q3 2004Q1 $(400) $(800) Net Income (Loss) in millions $(1,200) AA UA DL NW CO WN $(1,600) Source: Airline reports MITMIT Operating Performance of ICATICAT Major Pax and Cargo Carriers $1,600 West Coast Dock Strike $1,200 SARS Iraq War 9/11 Attacks $800 $400 $0 2000Q1 2000Q3 2001Q1 2001Q3 2002Q1 2002Q3 2003Q1 2003Q3 2004Q1 $(400) $(800) AA UA Net Income (Loss) in millions DL NW $(1,200) CO WN UPS FedEx $(1,600) Source: companies’ annual reports MITMIT Market Cap: US Majors, 6/10/04 ICATICAT With Jet Blue America ATA US Airways Alaska United 0.7% 2.9% 0.6% West 0.3% Continental 1.7% 3.4% Northwest Jet Blue 4.3% 13.8% Delta 3.6% American 9.4% Southwest 59.3% Total Market Cap: $20.9 billion Source: Yahoo! Finance. Includes ATA MITMIT Current Market Cap vs. RPM Share ICATICAT US Majors and ATA 25% 20% American United Delta 15% Northwest 10% Continental Southwest US Airways Monthly RPM Share 05/04 5% American West Alaska JetBlue ATA 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Relative Market Cap 06/04 Network vs. Cost Efficiency Questions Source: Yahoo! Finance and airline traffic reports MITMIT Weak Carriers Vulnerable to ICATICAT LCC Attack Southwest PHL Entry Service since May 9: Chicago (Midway) $ 79 one-way Las Vegas $ 99 one-way Orlando $ 79 one-way Providence $ 29 one-way US Airways match many of Southwest's fares with its own new, less restricted "GoFares.“ Both airlines offer the lowest available fares on many competing routes. US Airways Network Sources:http://www.southwest.com/cities/philadelphia.html, ETMS Data Analysis MITMIT Emergence of ICATICAT Low-Cost Carriers Canada (7, 1 in 2004) Europe (60, 3 in 2004) CanJet Westjet Aer Arann Baboo Fare4U Sun Express HMY Airways Zip Air 2000 Basiq Air German Wings Swedline JetsGo Airlines Canada West Air Baltic Bexx Air Germania Express ThomsonFly Tango Airlines Air Berlin BMI Baby Globespan V Bird Air Finland British European Hapag Lloyd Express Virgin Express USA (19, 4 in 2003/2004) Air Luxor Lite BudgetAir Hellas Jet VLM Airlines AirTran Spirit Airlines Air Polonia Corendon Helvetic Airways VolareWeb Allegiant Air Song Air Air Scotland Deutsche BA Iceland Express Windjet Vola American West Sun Country Air Southwest EasyJet Ryanair Smart Wings ATA USA 3000 Airlines Air Wales Evolavia Snalskjutsen Wizz Air Frontier Airlines Vacation Express Alpi Eagles Excel Airways SnowFlake Airlines Hop Interstate Jet Ted Azzurra Air Fairline Austria Sterling JetBlue Airways Independence Asia/Pacific (20, 8 in 2004) Midwest Express Virgin USA Air Arabia ValuAir Pan American Africa (2) Air Asia Virgin Blue Southeast Airlines South America (3) 1Time Air Deccan Air Blue Southwest Airlines Bra Kulula Athena Air Services Air One Gol Citilink BackpackersXpress U Air Freedom Air Jetstar Lion Airways Nok Air One-Two-Go Pacific Blue Skymark Airlines SkyAsia Skynet Asia Airways Tiger Airways Source: http://www.etn.nl/lcostair.htm, airline news Total 111 LCCs, 16 started/to start in 2003/2004 MITMIT Macro Scale Drivers ICATICAT US Airline Net Profit Cyclic Industry with Exponential Growth In Volatility Since Deregulation 6 4 2 0 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 -2 -4 -6 Deregulation Net Profit (2000 US$B) Net Profit (2000 -8 -10 -12 Source: ATA, Form41, US Airlines all services NB: 2001 data includes Air Trans Stabilization Act receipts MITMIT US Airlines Net Profit Model - 2002 Best Fit of Undamped Oscillation ICATICAT Cycle Period = 11.3 yr eFolding Time = 7.9 yr 40 30 Predictions 2003 ($14.3B) 2004 ($13.2B) 20 2005 ($ 7.0B) 10 0 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Net Profit (2000 US$B) -10 -20 US US Fit -30 NB: Predictions are in constant 2000 dollars. MITMIT Net Profit and Aircraft Deliveries Hypothesize that instability driven by capacity ICATICAT response phase lag World Airlines Net Profits vs. Aircraft Deliveries 15 1200 10 1000 5 Net Profits 800 0 600 -5 Deliveries Aircraft Deliveries (unit) Net Profit (Current US$ Bn) US$ (Current Profit Net 400 -10 -15 200 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: ICAO data MITMIT Simple Conceptual Model for ICATICAT Capacity Effects Economy (GDP) Latent Latent Demand Price Traffic (RPM) Revenue Net Profit Demand Demand Target +- Model Elasticity LF Social Factors Load Revenue Yield Demand Factor Management Capacity Variable + (ASM) Cost + Operating Expense VarCost/ASM Tactical Utilization Delay (months) Rate (%) Scheduling Capacity Potential Lift Fixed Cost (PASM) Net Fleet Delay (yrs) Orders Planning Retirement MITMIT Growth Limits ICATICAT Constraints vs Damping 40 30 20 Upside: Capacity, Market 10 0 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Net Profit (2000 US$B) -10 Downside: Financial -20 -30 MITMIT US Airline Performance Cycling Up ICATICAT Faster Than Predicted 40 30 Prediction 2003 ($15.3B) Actual 20 2003 ($3.6B) 10 0 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Net Profit (2000 US$B) -10 -20 US US Fit -30 NB: predictions are in current dollars. MITMIT Profitability Improvement ICATICAT Factors • Cargo Airlines Profitable • Yields Turned the Corner • Wage Concessions US: $1 billion UA: $2.56 billion AA: $2 billion • Distribution Costs $1 billion • Debt Restructuring & Chapter 11 • Pensions (Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC)) • Security Costs and Insurance? • Operating Efficiencies $4 billion • Fuel MITMIT Trends in Fuel Price ICATICAT Historical: Average Jet Fuel and Crude Oil Prices 130 45 System (L) Crude Oil:Dollars per Barrel 120 Crude Oil (R) 40 110 35 100 30 90 25 80 20 70 15 60 10 Jet Fuel: Cents per Gallon Cents per Fuel: Jet 50 5 40 0 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Source: ATA data; U.S. major, national, large regional passenger and cargo airlines; all services MITMIT ICATICAT 2004 Fuel Hedge Levels • Reduce the risk of high fuel prices by hedging future fuel contracts • Many U.S. major carriers lack credit lines or cash to buy hedges 100% 90% 80% 80% 72% 60% 57% 41% 40% 34% 22% 20% 20% 15% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% AirTran American Continental JetBlue Northwest EasyJet Qantas Alaska American Delta Southwest Air France Lufthansa West Source: Lehman Brothers, MSNBC news, Goldman Sachs, airline news MITMIT Growth Limits ICATICAT Constraints vs Damping 40 30 20 Upside:
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