Causes of Human Population Growth: A Quantitative Study
Mohnnad Alshalalda
Faculty sponsor: Dr. Andrew Ziegler Department of Political Science
Abstract This study employed a uantitative and comparative data to examine the factors that correlate to population growth. The study was conducted using the Microcase global file Le Roy, 201 . The ma or findings were that social factors—such as education, child marriage, contraception use, and religion—correlate most strongly to population growth. Educated couples tend to have fewer children. People who are more religious tend to have more children. Economic variables, such as GDP per capita are influential, but not as much as the social variables. A political variable, political stability, has the wea est correlation to population growth. As policy ma ers in different countries pursue their agendas in regard to population growth, these findings may be useful to achieve the desired results efficiently. For a government that wants to increase population, this research identifies factors that have the strongest lin to population growth. The research findings may also be valuable to governments that wish to reduce population.
Introduction
In the last two centuries, population growth has been an important sub ect for policy ma ers internationally, as the world witnessed a significant increase in the population. The human population is growing by about 8 million annually. According to the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, human population grew from one billion in 1800 to about .5 billion in 2018, and it is expected to reach about 11 billion by 2100 (“World” 2018). Many nations with high population growth have low standards of living, and many nations with low population growth have good standards of living. Intellectuals have debated this matter: Some warn of severe conse uences, and others argue that people will be able to deal with the problems. One of the prominent early intellectuals to warn of population growth was Thomas Malthus 1 98 . Malthus was an English scholar, influential in the fields of demography and political economy. In his influential boo An Essay on the Principle of Population, published in 1 98, Malthus argued that population grows geometrically, whereas food supplies grow arithmetically. At some point, the food production will not meet the needs of the population, leading to massive famines that will ill millions of people. Despite the remar able progress that people have made so far, poverty is still prevalent. As 80 stat d y th ood and ri lt r r ani ation o th 2 illion o l o h n ry ry day (“925 Million” 2010). th r int ll t als s h as st r os r o os d Malth s’s i ws (1 ). os r was a ro in nt r n h and anish ono ist. Whil Malth s (1 8) said that th rowth o o lation d nds on a ri lt ral thods and ood s ly os r (1 ) ar d th o osit ri lt ral thods d nd on th si o o lation. n th i w o Malth s wh n th ood s ly is ins i i nt th ss o lation will di . os r s o nt r ar nt was that o l nd r r ss r will always ind ways to in r as ood rod tion. o lation rowth is r ard d as on o th i st thr ats to th n iron nt. o l s ossil ls to ow r th ir a hin ry o lation rowth ans hi h r d and or as oil and oal. Wh n th s ls ar rn d or ar on dio id is itt d to th at os h r l adin to lo al war in . Mor o r in r as d o lation ans or ons tion o non r n wa l r so r s whi h will a s on li t or t r n rations. o lation rows at di r nt rat s in di r nt o ntri s a s o a tors li irth rat ortality rat rtility rat and n t i ration. rtility rat and irth rat an in l n d y so ial a tors in l din r li ion ra l l o d ation a ss to a ortion and ontra ti thods hild la or i i ration so ial s rity or ld rs th ost o raisin hildr n and o rn nt ro ra s to s ort or dis o ra hild arin . o lation rowth o s with s stantial ono i so ial and oliti al i li ations. or instan low in o o ntri s do not rod no h ood to at h th ir o lation rowth l adin th to or d nd nt on nsi rain i orts and th s to in r or d t. n addition ra id o lation rowth l ads to slow ono i d lo nt whi h wid ns th a tw n oor and ri h o l and nations. or a l n loy nt rows at a hi h r rat in l ss d lo d o ntri s a s o th in r as in th wor in a o lation. n loy nt ontri t s to hi h r rat s o ali nation and ri th s r at r so ial ro l s. inally ast o lation rowth a s it hard or o rn nts to aintain ad at li s r i s or ryon . n o ntri s wh r o l ar str lin or loy nt o ort niti s and li s r i s on li t is or li ly to aris a sin or insta ility. o lation rowth in r as s th li lihood o o rty on li t tr is and d str tion o th olo i al syst . his r s ar h ai s to ro id a tt r nd rstandin o th ro l s as rtainin di r nt a tors that a t th rowth o o lation and r o nds oli y as r s and rassroots sol tions to r sol th iss . antitati thods ar s d in this r s ar h. ata on 1 o ntri s will s d ro th lo al il o Mi ro as ( oy 201 ). o addr ss th iss s dis ss d a o this r s ar h a in s the following research question: “What are the factors that orr lat to o lation rowth in different countries?” The paper is or ani d into s tions on lit rat r r i w thodolo y and indin s and analysis.
it rat r i w
h to i o o r o lation has n ontro rsial. o s holars r ss a t on rn a o t this h no non and onsid r it a i ro l . holars s h as ho as Malth s (1 8) and a l . hrli h (1 8) ha ar d that o r o lation l ads to a in
81 and star ation ther scholars regard o erpopulation as a a or cause of en iron ental crises and e en ore consider it a cause of po ert and low standards of li ing n the other hand so e scholars ha e ta en the opposite stance on the issue or instance, Ester Boserup (1965) was one of Malthus’s biggest opponents, arguing that hu ans ha e a great capacit to adapt to changing conditions and will alwa s find the eans to fulfill their needs n 9 ulian i on pu lished the Ultimate Resource in which he agreed with oserup thers argued that the fa ines of the past centur occurred ecause of poor anage ent of resources not a lac of resources ecentl fewer scholars e press concern a out o erpopulation perhaps ecause of credi le predictions that the population will fall at so e point in this centur apan outh orea o ania and other countries are e a ples of falling irth rates urther ore policies put in place to counter o erpopulation ha e rought criticis as so e of these policies depri ed people of their personal freedo erall scholarl perspecti es on o erpopulation can e di ided into two schools of thought: “overpopulation is a problem,” and “overpopulation is not a problem.”
Overpopulation Is a Problem Malthus ( 9 clai ed “Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio u sistence increases onl in an arith etical ratio slight acquaintance with nu ers will shew sic the immensity of the first power in comparison of the second” (12) This quotation fro An Essay on the Principle of Population articulates Malthus’s essential point: opulation increases geo etricall ut food production grows arith eticall Therefore population growth has to e chec ed therwise food production will lag behind the population’s needs which will lead to fa ine and star ation ne of the ost pro inent neo Malthusians in the 2 th centur was aul hrlich ( 9 the ing rofessor of opulation tudies at tanford ni ersit and president of tanford’s enter for onser ation iolog n 9 he and nne hrlich his wife pu lished the est selling oo The Population Bomb. The oo warned of assi e star ations in the 9 s and 9 s and called for i ediate action to li it population growth The oo attracted criticis for its inaccurate predictions and alar ist tone The hrlichs anifested their pessi is in this state ent: “the battle to feed humanity is alread lost in the sense that we will not e a le to pre ent large scale fa ines in the ne t decade or so” (Ehrlich 1968, 36). That prediction led the to call for reducing population growth to ero or e en a negati e rate The Ehrlichs’ claims were even more dire than Malthus’s, but the primary concern of oth was fa ine The factors affecting fertilit rate can e either econo ic or social such as education le el and religion ( r isch 9 r isch discussed the social i plications of o erpopulation ne of his ain points was that po ert can e a cause of o erpopulation and a result at the sa e ti e e e plained how a large fa il could ean a lower standard of li ing ecause parents with an children a struggle to pro ide a good life for the fa il r isch argued that a large wor ing age population could ean higher une plo ent thus a greater urden on the go ern ent to pro ide enough o s and pu lic ser ices for the whole population ne plo ent in turn has negati e consequences such as the rise of conflict and higher cri e rates The concern of en iron entalists has een the consequences of hu an o erpopulation for the en iron ent arl eidel ( 9 the aniel lar e anders 82 Professor of Environmental tudies and the director of the Environmental Program at the niversity of ermont, argued that overpopulation is one of the most pressing environmental issues. n his thinking, overpopulation drives environmental pollution, global warming, intensive farming practices, the si th mass e tinction, and the consumption of non renewable resources, such as arable land, fossil fuels, and freshwater. The solution he proposed is to implement a global birth control strategy ( eidel 1988).
Overpopulation Is Not a Problem espite the negative predictions of the conse uences of human overpopulation, many have presented optimistic views and promising scholarly predictions. n response to Malthus’s views (1798), Boserup (1965) argued in her book The Conditions of Agricultural Growth that the intensity of agricultural production is driven by population change. he endorsed the adage that “necessity is the mother of invention,” asserting that people’s needs will drive them to come up with efficient means of food production. People have the capacity to handle the demands of overpopulation, wrote ulian imon (1981), formerly a professor of business administration at the niversity of Maryland. e devoted his book The Ultimate Resource, published in 1981, to this proposition. He argued that “the most important benefit of population size and growth is the increase it brings to the stock of useful knowledge. Minds matter economically as much as, or more than, hands or mouths” (Simon 1981, 12). From his perspective, population growth creates more resources. The resource of more brains means more innovative production. Moreover, the Ehrlichs’ prediction of famines due to human overpopulation turned out to be false, according to an ardner (2 1 ), a New York Times best selling author about psychology and decision making. The Ehrlichs (1968) warned that famines would kill hundreds of millions in the 19 s, but such famines did not come to pass. These predictions received much criticism however, Paul Ehrlich continued to take same stance, that if population growth is not controlled, famines will happen sooner or later ( ardner 2 1 ). t used to be believed that world population would continue to grow forever, and that is why many scholars advocated measures to slow its growth. owever, the case seems to be different today, and for various reasons birth rates are falling in different parts of the world. Eastern Europe and apan make good case studies. Billingsley (2 1 ) e plained the fertility decline in eastern Europe as a result of urbani ation and attainment of education, particularly female education (13). iting the Independent, imon (2 1 ) asserted that the number of births in apan dropped by a million in 2 16 only. Patrick mam (2 13) discussed the problems associated with this decline and described how the decline has already affected different sectors of apanese life, especially the economic sector. e also reported on the government’s struggles in its attempts to resolve this issue, a critical problem for apan. urthermore, policies to counter overpopulation have garnered criticism, as some of these policies violated human rights, such as China’s one child policy. That policy, according to onnie ford (2 1 ), violated the right of self determination. People were sub ect to punitive fines when they had more than one child. terili ation and forced abortion were not uncommon practices. hen parents learned their unborn child was female, they often sought abortion, which led to a wide gender imbalance in hina 83 ( ford 2 17). hether China did the right thing by this policy is debatable. he policy prevented million births according to arkinson (2 15). Some see the policy as a favor that China did for the world, and others see it as a human rights violation. Summary he topic of human overpopulation is complicated and therefore widely debatable. his topic is not new in international politics t was brought up over 2 hundred years ago. homas Malthus (1798) was one of the first scholars to open the debate. He warned of massive famines if the population continued to grow in the same pattern. ther prominent scholars disagreed and argued that more population meant more creativity and more efficient means of food production. hese scholars believed that people have the capacity to handle such a problem. Furthermore, birthrates are falling in places such as Eastern Europe and apan. Some scholarly predictions show that world population will reach its peak in this century and start to decline, which raises its own concerns. o e plore the causes of human population growth, the ne t section will e amine several variables and their correlation to population growth.
Methodology
his section presents the methodology used to answer the research uestion “What are the factors that affect human population growth?” he dependent variable chosen for this study from the Microcase lobal File is the average annual population growth from 2 to 2 5, labeled ( op rowth) in this database. he seven independent variables chosen for this study are the following mean years of school among 25year olds (Education) percentage of children in child marriage ( id ed) percentage of women using contraception (Contracept) percent of those who say that they get comfort and strength from religion ( eligion Comfort) the globalization inde , which measures the overall average level of economic, political, social, and technological engagement across nation state borders ( lobal) per capita based on purchasing power parity ( C ) and environmental governance, institutions, political stability, and absence of violence (Stable. ol). n order to answer the research uestion, this study will use the lobal file from the MicroCase software ( e oy 2 1 ).
Concepts and Variables o help define population growth as the dependent variable, this research uses H, variable from the lobal file. he variable has a ratio level of measurement and gives the average annual population growth rate, by country, from the year 2 to 2 5. he variable provides data on 172 countries and is the only dependent variable. he chosen independent variables will help e plain why human population grows at different rates in different countries. he following variables were selected education, religion, child marriage, contraceptive use, globalization inde , per capita, and political stability. hese variables will be further analyzed below. he numbers in parentheses are the variable numbers for the Microcase lobal data file.
84 ocial aria les shows the mean ears of school among a ults an ol er in ifferent countries he ata are presente ase on a range of igher ran means more ears of school W gi es information on the percentage of chil ren in chil marriage in countries he ata are presente ase on a range of igher ran means more cases of chil marriage measures the percentage of women who use contraception in ifferent countries he ata are presente ase on a range of igher ran means more contracepti e use presents the percentage of those who sa that the recei e comfort an strength from religion in ifferent countries he ata are ase on a range of igher ran means a higher percentage of people who gain strength an comfort from religion
conomic aria les pro i es information on the glo ali ation in e of countries he glo alali ation in e measures the o erall a erage le el of economic political social an technological engagement across nation state or ers he ata are presente ase on a range of igher ran means greater glo ali ation pro i es information on countries’ GDP per capita based on purchasing power parit he ata are presente ase on a range of he alue reflects the actual of a countr
olitical aria les gi es information on the nature of go ernance an institutions in a country based on the country’s political stability. he ata is presente from worst go ernance to est on a range of igher ran means etter go ernance
Hypotheses
ocial aria les pothesis here is a negati e relationship etween population growth an e ucation ucate couples ten to want fewer chil ren than those who are less e ucate pothesis here is a positi e relationship etween population growth an chil marriage pothesis here is a negati e relationship etween population growth an contracepti e use pothesis here is a positi e relationship etween population growth an the egree of comfort eri e from religion
conomic aria les pothesis here is a negati e relationship etween population growth an the le el of glo ali ation 85 ypothesis here is a ne ati e relationship bet een population ro th and GDP per capita.
Political ariable ypothesis here is no relationship bet een population ro th and political stability.
Research Method
his research is based on secondary analysis ro the Global ile hich co ers data on countries. n con unction ith the Methods in Political Science: An Introduction to Using Microcase e oy the data as co piled in the icrocase pro ra . n the ile ariables are based on ans ers to sur ey uestions i en to sur ey ta ers. his analysis uses scatterplot raphs to depict the relationship bet een dependent and independent ariables in each country. he dependent ariable oes on the y a is ertical and the independent ariables is placed alon the a is hori ontal . n the analysis a re ression line ill represent the direction o the relationship hether it is ne ati e or positi e. he ore points near the re ression line the stron er the relationship. n addition to distin uish the stren th o the relationship bet een the independent and dependent ariables the researcher calculated statistical si ni icance the probability o the relationship occurrin by chance. the probability is less than . then the relationship is considered statistically si ni icant as there is less than a chance that the relationship occurred by chance. n addition to probability the researcher has deter ined the stren th o these relationships by the easure o association hich is dependent on the speci ic ariable. ll chosen ariables ha e the ratio easure ent there ore they are measured using Pearson’s correlation coe icient. If Pearson’s is less than 0.25, the relationship between the ariables is too ea to be eanin ul. it is bet een . and . the relationship is ea . it is bet een . and . the relationship is oderate. Pearson’s is 0.40 or above, the relationship is stron .
indin s and nalysis
he ollo in analysis tests all the hypotheses presented in the ethodolo y section. ollo in the tests all o the indin s ill be analy ed and presented in this section. ased on all o the statistical indin s the researcher has deter ined hether the hypotheses are supported or not supported by the data.
Social Variables
Population Gro th by ducation he irst hypothesis proposes a ne ati e relationship bet een population ro th and le el o education. n i ure the scatterplot sho s population ro th the dependent ariable alon the y a is. he re ression line indicates a ne ati e relationship bet een the t o ariables. o e a ine statistical si ni icance the probability alue prob
86 was found to be 0.00, whi h means that the relationship between population growth and edu ation level is statisti all signifi ant. The Pearson’s correlation coefficient is 0. 2 , indi ating a strong negative relationship between the two variables. It is not surprising that su h high orrelation e ists between these two variables. he reasons for su h a result will be dis ussed below. igure shows that, in ountries where people are highl edu ated, birth rates tend to be low. estern uropean ountries, su h as erman and inland, have low birth rates and also a high level of edu ation among adults. ouples in ountries li e ali and iger have fewer ears of edu ation among adults, thus higher birth rates. n the other hand, ountries li e nited rab mirates and atar are outliers, having a good level of edu ation but the highest population growth one of the main reasons ma be the high immigration into these two ountries. If these two outliers were removed, r would in rease from 0. 2 to 0. , ma ing the relationship between the two variables stronger.
Figure 1: he elationship etween Population rowth and du ation
Population rowth b hild arriage he se ond h pothesis proposes a positive relationship between population growth and hild marriage. igure 2 supports this h pothesis. he graph shows that a higher rate of hild marriage orresponds to a higher population growth. had and ali have both a high rate of hild marriage and high population growth. n the other hand,
87 o th frica an Thailan ha e lo rates of chil arria e an lo er irth rates tliers incl e co ntries li e entral frican e lic an Trini a an To a o hich ha e hi h rates of chil arria e t lo o lation ro th Trini a an To a o has a lo fertilit rate erha s e to the hi h contrace ti e se a on o en in the co ntr The entral frican e lic has a hi h infant ortalit rate li el eca se of the lac of a oo healthcare s ste rther ore Pearson’s correlation coefficient is ince the al e of r is a o e the relationshi et een o lation ro th an chil arria e is stron The ro a ilit is fo n to e eanin that this relationshi is statisticall si nificant f the t o o tliers entione a o e ere re o e fro the lot the al e of r o l fro to in icatin a ch stron er relationshi et een the t o aria les
Figure 2: The elationshi et een Po lation ro th an hil arria e
Po lation ro th ontrace ti e se The thir h othesis osits a ne ati e relationshi et een o lation ro th an contrace tion se i re s ests the sa e res lt The ra h sho s that co ntries ith hi her contrace ti e se ha e lo er o lation ro th hina an the nite in o ha e the hi hest rate of contrace ti e se at an the ha e a on the slo est rates of o lation ro th ith rates of an res ecti el n the other han a ia an n ola ha e so e of the lo est eas res of contrace ti e se an res ecti el 88 s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s ’s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s
Figure 3: s s
s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s 89 s s s s s s s s s s s s ’s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s
Figure 4: s
Economic Variables
s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s
90 s s ss s s s s ss s s s s s s s s s s ’s s s s s s s s s s s s ss s s
Figure 5: s
s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s 91 s s Luxembourg’s population growth may be s ’s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s
Figure 6: s
Political Variable
s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s
92 earson’s orrelation oe i ient is whi h implies a mo erate relationship robability is oun to be meaning that this relationship is statisti ally signi i ant the two outliers were remo e rom the plot the alue o r woul hange rom to ma ing the relationship a strong one
Figure 7: he elationship etween opulation rowth an oliti al tability
able lists the in epen ent ariables examine in this stu y an presents their respe ti e le els o asso iation with the epen ent ariable o population growth
on lusion
he resear h presente in this paper explores the arious a tors that orrelate an may ontribute to population growth he topi o population growth has been ontro ersial ome s holars are optimisti an others are pessimisti about the problems o ontinuing population growth o sol e the ontro ersy it is important to now the a tors a e ting population growth ollowing the literature re iew se en a tors were lassi ie into three groups so ial e onomi an politi al ll se en hypothesis were teste using the i ro ase lobal ile any belie e that population growth has ause or will ause massi e problems su h as amines an star ation through an inability to meet the essential nee s o the 93 Table 1: s s ss
s s ss
Social Variables ● s
● s
● s s
● s
Economic Variables ● s
● s
Political Variable ● s
s s s s s ss s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s ss s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s ’s lives s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s ss s s s s ss ss ss s ss — s 94 i ll i i e li i l s e e e ese es e e v i le li i l s ili e i i s s es s esi e e e is el i s i e ee li i l s ili l i e i i s s i l v i les e s e i e es i i li i s i l ve e s i e i l i s i i s s ive l l i e e i e si e e si i e es l s s es l l s i l s e e e iv e e le i e l i e le li e s i ies li e ssi l esi e e l i e e ive s e ies s i l i s i l v i les e e e le ve e il e s s e si i e i e e e i s s e e i e e e e i se i il l ies li e i e e l i e s e s e i li i e s e es s lve e ve s l i is vi i l e e e s s ive ee l i s e l e level ive s i l s see ve e i es el i l i e ese i s i l s el i evel i e e ive s se l i l e s e level i i e e i i s l i i i e e ies e el l i e s i e le e visi i e e i l i e s i ll i i l s li i l v i les l el e e i e e e li i l s i l e e l i
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