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Demographic Facts of Life Demographic Facts of Life Student Activity Method: Students calculate the rate of natural increase and corresponding doubling times for several countries and discuss differences. Students also calculate the time it has taken for the world to replace the number of people lost in historic disasters. Concept: The discrepancy between a popula- tion’s birth and death rates deter- Introduction: mines rate of growth. The world’s Birth and death rates determine the rate of population growth. If the birth and death rapid population growth rate means rates are similar, a population experiences little or no growth. When the birth rate far that even the deaths from large- exceeds the death rate, the population soars. These rates are expressed as the number of scale disasters have little effect on births or deaths for every 1,000 people in a given year. For instance, in 2011 the world’s our population size. birth rate was 20 per 1,000 and the death rate was 8 per 1,000. Using the formulas below, we can determine the world’s annual growth rate and the number of years it will Objectives: take the population to double if the growth rate remains constant. Students will be able to: • Describe how birth and death % annual growth rate (natural increase) = birth rate - death rate rates affect population growth. 10 • Calculate rates of population 20 - 8 = 1.2 % growth given birth and death rates. 10 • Calculate doubling time given rate of increase. doubling time (in years) = 70 • Draw connections between popu- rate of increase lation growth and social/political and economic conditions. At the current growth rate, the world’s population will double in, • Calculate population increase per unit of time, given rate of increase. 70 = 58 years 1.2 Subjects: (Note: 70 is the approximate equivalent of 100 times the natural log of 2.) Mathematics, biology, environ- mental science, social studies Procedure: Skills: Part One: On the Double Data collection, analysis, and Distribute copies of Student Worksheet 1 and have students complete the table. interpretation, math calculations Discussion Questions: Materials: 1. What are some observations you can Answers to table on Student Worksheet 1 Copies of Student Worksheet make from this data? Calculator Country Percent annual Doubling Some countries have reached zero natural increase time (years) Key Terms: growth rate, population growth, such as Italy, and China 0.5 140 zero population growth Japan, and Russia has a higher death India 1.5 47 rate than birth rate. Where the rate of Yemen 3.1 23 growth is higher, the doubling time is shorter. Yemen, Nigeria and Mexico Italy -0.1 No doubling have short doubling times and rapidly Japan -0.1 No doubling increasing populations. Nigeria 2.5 28 Mexico 1.4 50 2. Why do you think some countries are Russia -0.2 No doubling doubling much more rapidly than oth- South Africa 0.6 117 ers? Why do you think some countries, such as Italy, have reached zero popula- United KIngdom 0.4 175 tion growth (z.p.g.)? United States 0.5 140 population connection ©2012 Population Dynamics • Student Activity • Demographic Facts of Life • page 1 of 2 The doubling time is shorter in countries where the rate Part Two: Grim Reaper’s of growth is higher. The greater the difference between Revenge the birth rate and the death rate, the faster the popula- We are currently adding 80 million people (net tion growth. Many European counties, such as Italy, growth) to the world each year, or 219,000 people have reached zero or negative population growth each day. Conveying the importance of such figures to because their birth and death rates are about the same, students can be difficult since the numbers are so or death rates are higher. large they lose their meaning. The table in Student 3. Which figures differ most greatly between coun- Worksheet 2 makes these numbers more concrete by tries, the birth rates or the death rates? How would illustrating that the numbers of people lost in histo- you explain the wide disparity in birth rates among ry’s major disasters are currently being replaced in a different countries? Why are the death rates relatively matter of days or weeks. low in many of the countries with high birth rates? Have students complete the table in Student The birth rates differ greatly due to differences in Worksheet 2 average family size. Death rates are relatively low in many of the countries with high birth rates because the majority of the population is Answers to table on Student Worksheet 2 young. In Yemen, for instance, 45 percent Disaster Replacement of the population is under age 15, and only time 3 percent is age 65 or older. All U.S. accident deaths, 2009 12 hours 4. If you were a national leader in Yemen or Nigeria, would you be concerned about the Indian Ocean Tsunami, 2004 23 hours rapid population growth? Why or why not? Total American battle deaths in 3 days Similarly, if you were a national leader in Italy, all wars as of 2011 would you be concerned that your country has Total U.S. Automobile deaths 16 days reached z.p.g.? Why or why not? through 2010 Yes. As a national leader of Yemen or Nigeria, Influenza epidemic, 1918 3.2 months you would be responsible for seeing that Total AIDS deaths through 2010 2 months there are sufficient services for the expanding Chinese famine, 1877-78 5.9 weeks population such as homes, roads, jobs, health Bubonic plague, 1347-51 11.5 months care, etc. You would find it difficult for your country to prosper in the world market, if it can not meet the needs of its own people. As a national leader of Italy, you would not be faced with Assessment Ideas: these problems and could plan for your nation’s Have students pick one of the countries on the chart future progress. However, you may be concerned and research if and how the government has made that your population is rapidly aging. policy to address population growth. They should note if these strategies are working and what they would 5. The population of the United States is actually recommend to better that country’s situation, using growing at the rate of about one percent each year, evidence to support their claims. more than its rate of natural increase. Where do you think the additional population growth coming from? Net migration accounts for roughly 40 percent of population growth in the United States. In recent years, the greatest number of new Americans have come from the following countries: Mexico, Philippines, Vietnam, India, Dominican Republic, and China (mainland). population connection ©2012 Population Dynamics • Student Activity • Demographic Facts of Life • page 2 of 2 Demographic Facts of Life Student Worksheet 1 On the Double Using the table below, determine the percentage of annual increase and the population doubling times for the following countries. % annual natural increase = birth rate - death rate 10 doubling time (in years) = 70 rate of increase Birth Rate Death Rate % Annual Doubling Country in 2011 in 2011 Natural Time (per 1,000 (per 1,000 Increase (Years) people) people) China 12 7 India 22 7 Yemen 38 7 Italy 9 10 Japan 8 9 Nigeria 41 16 Mexico 19 5 Russia 13 15 South Africa 20 14 United Kingdom 13 9 United States 13 8 Birth and death rates obtained from the 2011 World Population Data Sheet: Demographic Data and Estimates for the Countries and Regions of the World (2007, Population Reference Bureau, Washington, DC). population connection ©2012 Population Dynamics • Student Worksheet 1 • Demographic Facts of Life • page 1 Demographic Facts of Life Student Worksheet 2 Grim Reaper’s Revenge We are currently adding 80 million people (net growth) to the world’s population each year. This means we are adding 219,000 people each day. Even the deaths from large-scale disasters have little effect on a population growing so rapidly. Below is a listing of some of the world’s worst disasters, along with an approximate death toll. At today’s present rate of growth, determine how many days, weeks or months it would take to replace those lost. Round off to one decimal place. Present world population growth Some past disasters Approximate replaces this # in # of deaths approximately what time span? All U.S. accident deaths, 2009 112,900 Indian Ocean Tsunami, 2004 225,000 Total American battle deaths in all our wars, as of 2011 656,000 Total U.S. automobile deaths through 2011 3,500,000 Influenza epidemic, 1918 21,000,000 Total AIDS deaths through 2010 30,000,000 Bubonic plague, 1347-51 75,000,000 Casualty figures obtained from the 2011 Information Please Almanac (www.infoplease.com); 2007 New York Times Almanac (New York: Penguin Books, 2006); UNAIDS, www.unaids.org; National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Discussion Question: What does this data tell us about the effects of a natural disaster on global population? population connection ©2012 Population Dynamics • Student Worksheet 2 • Demographic Facts of Life • page 1.
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