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Population Projections for 2020 to 2060 Population Estimates and Projections Current Population Reports Demographic Turning Points for the United States: Population Projections for 2020 to 2060 Population Estimates and Projections Current Population Reports By Jonathan Vespa, Lauren Medina, and David M. Armstrong P25-1144 Issued March 2018 Revised February 2020 INTRODUCTION Figure The year 2030 marks a demographic Projections of the Older Adult Population to turning point for the United States. By nearly one in four Americans is projected to Beginning that year, all baby boomers be an older adult will be older than 65. This will expand Millions of people ­ years and older Percent of population the size of the older population so that one in every five Americans is projected to be retirement age (Figure 1). Later that decade, by 2034, we project that older adults will ­ outnumber children for the first time in U.S. history. The year 2030 marks another demographic first for the United States. Beginning that year, because of population aging, immigration is projected to overtake ­ natural increase (the excess of births over deaths) as the primary driver of population growth for the country. As the population ages, the number of deaths is projected to rise sub- Source US Census Bureau National Population Projections stantially, which will slow the coun- try’s natural growth. As a result, net is still expected to grow by 79 million people by 2060, international migration is projected to overtake natural crossing the 400-million threshold in 2058. This con- increase, even as levels of migration are projected to tinued growth sets the United States apart from other remain relatively flat. These three demographic mile- developed countries, whose populations are expected stones are expected to make the 2030s a transforma- to barely increase or actually contract in coming tive decade for the U.S. population. decades. This report looks at these changes and sum- Beyond 2030, the U.S. population is projected to grow marizes results from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2017 slowly, to age considerably, and to become more National Population Projections. It focuses on 2030 as racially and ethnically diverse. Despite slowing popula- a demographic turning point for the United States, but tion growth, particularly after 2030, the U.S. population explores broader changes in the age, race, and ethnic composition of the population from 2020 to 2060. • Beginning in 2030, net inter- 2017 NATIONAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS national migration is expected to overtake natural increase The results in this report are based on the 2017 National Population Projections, which are the third set of projections based on the as the driver of population 2010 Census, and cover the period from 2017 to 2060. This series growth in the United States updates the prior series released in 2014, which was the first to because of population aging. incorporate separate assumptions about the fertility of native- and That year, the United States foreign-born women living in the United States, since the latter tend is projected to add 1 million to have higher fertility rates. people by natural increase (the number of births minus The 2017 series extends that work to include separate assumptions deaths) but 1.1 million through about the mortality of native- and foreign-born people. For the first net international migration. time, the national population projections account for the generally Because the number of deaths lower mortality rates and higher life expectancy of the foreign-born, is projected to rise substan- which allows us to better project for the effects of international tially, in 2060 the U.S. popula- migration on the population of the United States. The 2017 series tion is projected to add about also includes projections of the racial and ethnic composition of chil- 500,000 people by natural dren and older adults for the first time. increase, whereas net interna- The 2017 National Population Projections include projections of tional migration is expected the resident population by several demographic traits, including to add more than twice that age, sex, race, Hispanic origin, and nativity (whether people were number—1.1 million—to the born in the United States or in another country). They are based on population. the 2010 Census and official population estimates through 2016. This series uses the cohort-component method, which projects the • The population is projected three components of population change—fertility, mortality, and to grow more from interna- international migration—separately for each birth cohort based on tional migration than natural historical trends. The base population is advanced each year using increase in coming decades projected survival rates and net international migration. New birth because of population aging. cohorts are added to the population by applying the annual pro- As baby boomers age into jected age-specific fertility rates to the female population. older adulthood, the number of deaths is projected to rise For more information on the data and methodology, see the report faster than the number of on the 2017 National Population Projections: Methodology and Assumptions <www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popproj births. As a result, the popula- /technical-documentation/methodology.html>. tion will naturally grow very slowly, leaving international migration to overtake natural HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE 2017 1.8 million people per year increase as the leading cause NATIONAL POPULATION between 2017 and 2060. of population growth, even as PROJECTIONS projected levels of migration • The rate of population growth remain relatively flat. Population growth: is slowing. Since 2010, the • The United States is projected population has grown by Aging: about 2.3 million people to grow by nearly 79 million • America is graying. The per year and it is projected people in the next 4 decades, nation’s 65-and-older popu- to continue growing by the from about 326 million to lation is projected to nearly same annual rate until 2030. 404 million between 2017 and double in size in coming However, that rate is expected 2060. The population is pro- decades, from 49 million in to fall to 1.8 million per year jected to cross the 400-million 2016 to 95 million people in between 2030 and 2040, and mark in 2058. 2060. As a result, the share of continue falling to 1.5 million people aged 65 and older will • The population is expected per year between 2040 and grow from about 15 percent in to grow by an average of 2060. 2 U.S. Census Bureau 2016 to nearly a quarter of the population in 2060. HOW DO POPULATIONS GROW? • The number of people 85 Components of Population Change years and older is expected to There are three demographic reasons why populations change: nearly double by 2035 (from people are born, they die, and they move into or out of a coun- 6.5 million to 11.8 million) and try.* Together, the number of births, deaths, and net international nearly triple by 2060 (to 19 migrants make up the total population change over a period of million people). time (Figure 5). Births add to the population while deaths take Race and ethnicity: away from it. The combination of these two components is called natural increase (or sometimes natural decrease when deaths • The non-Hispanic White exceed births, which can cause a population to shrink). Migration, population is projected to the third component, can either add to or subtract from a popula- shrink over coming decades, tion depending if more people come into the country than leave it. from 199 million in 2020 to 179 million people in 2060— Between 2017 and 2060, the U.S. population is projected to grow even as the U.S. population by 79.0 million people. Where do these people come from? Over continues to grow. Their that period, we project a total of 181.6 million births, more than decline is driven by falling four times that of net international migration. However, these birth rates and rising number births are offset by a projected 149.1 million deaths, leaving a natu- of deaths over time as the ral increase of 32.5 million people. Adding this natural increase to non-Hispanic White popula- the 46.4 million people from net international migration, we proj- tion ages. In comparison, the ect a total growth of 79.0 million over the period from 2017 White population, regardless to 2060. of Hispanic origin, is projected We project fertility and mortality rates separately for foreign-born to grow from 253 million to 275 residents, who tend to have higher fertility rates and lower mortal- million over the same period. ity rates than people born in the United States. Over the course • The population of people of their life, foreign-born women have historically had slightly who are Two or More Races more children than native-born women (2.2 births compared with is projected to be the fastest- 1.9 births on average, respectively). Furthermore, birth rates are growing racial or ethnic group highest among foreign-born women who are not U.S. citizens (78 over the next several decades, births per 1,000 women),** followed by those who are naturalized followed by Asians and citizens (53 births per 1,000 women). Native women have lower Hispanics. The causes of their birth rates in comparison (51 births per 1,000 women). Between growth are different, however. 2017 and 2060, we project that 80.7 percent of all births will be to For Hispanics and people who native mothers, while 19.3 percent of births will be to foreign-born are Two or More Races, high mothers. Additionally, we project that 84.8 percent of all deaths in growth rates are largely the this period will be to native residents, while 15.2 percent of deaths result of high rates of natural will be to foreign-born residents.
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