A Non-Linear Threshold Estimation of Density Effects
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Load more
Recommended publications
-
Globalization and Infectious Diseases: a Review of the Linkages
TDR/STR/SEB/ST/04.2 SPECIAL TOPICS NO.3 Globalization and infectious diseases: A review of the linkages Social, Economic and Behavioural (SEB) Research UNICEF/UNDP/World Bank/WHO Special Programme for Research & Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR) The "Special Topics in Social, Economic and Behavioural (SEB) Research" series are peer-reviewed publications commissioned by the TDR Steering Committee for Social, Economic and Behavioural Research. For further information please contact: Dr Johannes Sommerfeld Manager Steering Committee for Social, Economic and Behavioural Research (SEB) UNDP/World Bank/WHO Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR) World Health Organization 20, Avenue Appia CH-1211 Geneva 27 Switzerland E-mail: [email protected] TDR/STR/SEB/ST/04.2 Globalization and infectious diseases: A review of the linkages Lance Saker,1 MSc MRCP Kelley Lee,1 MPA, MA, D.Phil. Barbara Cannito,1 MSc Anna Gilmore,2 MBBS, DTM&H, MSc, MFPHM Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum,1 D.Phil. 1 Centre on Global Change and Health London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK 2 European Centre on Health of Societies in Transition (ECOHOST) London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK TDR/STR/SEB/ST/04.2 Copyright © World Health Organization on behalf of the Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases 2004 All rights reserved. The use of content from this health information product for all non-commercial education, training and information purposes is encouraged, including translation, quotation and reproduction, in any medium, but the content must not be changed and full acknowledgement of the source must be clearly stated. -
Litter Pollution in Densely Versus Sparsely Populated Areas: Dog River Watershed
LITTER POLLUTION IN DENSELY VERSUS SPARSELY POPULATED AREAS: DOG RIVER WATERSHED Gabrielle M. Hudson, Department of Earth Sciences, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL 36688. E-mail: [email protected]. It is commonly known that when humans populate an area that area is usually subject to some environmental degradation. One of the more common aspects of environmental degradation is litter. This type of degradation is no stranger to the Dog River watershed. For years residents have seen the rivers in this watershed covered in trash, specifically after rain events. The vast majority of the trash is a result of litter from roadsides being carried into the river via drainage pipes. This paper is a comparative study of litter in areas of varying population densities in the Dog River watershed. It seeks to distinguish between the amount of litter found in densely populated areas and sparsely populated areas, and to find out if there is a correlation between population density and litter. I utilize GIS to map population density of the Dog River watershed, and analyze and compare the amounts of litter in areas of sparse and dense populations. The results show that there is no correlation between population density and litter. It also shows that there is no difference in the amounts of litter found in densely and sparsely populated areas. Keyword: litter, population density, watershed Introduction Pollution has long been an issue in the Dog River watershed, in particular litter pollution. The extent of the pollution has not gone unnoticed. There are groups of people and organizations who have taken increased interest in the Dog River watershed with intentions of reducing pollution, including Dog River Clearwater Revival and its numerous volunteers. -
Population Growth & Resource Capacity
Population Growth & Resource Capacity Part 1 Population Projections Between 1950 and 2005, population growth in the U.S. has been nearly linear, as shown in figure 1. Figure 1 U.S. Population in Billions 0.4 0.3 0.2 Actual Growth 0.1 Linear Approximation - - - H L Year 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. If you looked at population growth over a longer period of time, you would see that it is not actually linear. However, over the relatively short period of time above, the growth looks nearly linear. A statistical technique called linear regression can create a linear function that approximates the actual population growth over this period very well. It turns out that this function is P = 0.0024444t + 0.15914 where t represents the time variable measured in years since 1950 and P represents the (approximate) population of the U.S. measured in billions of people. (If you take statistics, you’ll probably learn how to obtain this function.) The graph of this linear function is shown in the figure above. (1) Just to make sure that you understand how to work with this function, use it to complete the following table. The actual population values are given. If you are working with the function correctly, the values you obtain should be close to the actual population values! Actual Population t P Year (billions of people) (years) (billions of people) 1960 .186158 1990 .256098 2005 .299846 (2) Use the linear function to determine the approximate year when the population of the U.S. -
Utah's Long-Term Demographic and Economic Projections Summary Principal Researchers: Pamela S
Research Brief July 2017 Utah's Long-Term Demographic and Economic Projections Summary Principal Researchers: Pamela S. Perlich, Mike Hollingshaus, Emily R. Harris, Juliette Tennert & Michael T. Hogue continue the existing trend of a slow decline. From Background 2015-2065, rates are projected to decline from 2.32 to 2.29. These rates are projected to remain higher The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute prepares long-term than national rates that move from 1.87 to 1.86 over demographic and economic projections to support in- a similar period. formed decision making in the state. The Utah Legislature funds this research, which is done in collaboration with • In 2065, life expectancy in Utah is projected to be the Governor’s Office of Management and Budget, the -Of 86.3 for women and 85.2 for men. This is an increase fice of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst, the Utah Association of approximately 4 years for women and 6 years for of Governments, and other research entities. These 50- men. The sharper increase for men narrows the life year projections indicate continued population growth expectancy gap traditionally seen between the and illuminate a range of future dynamics and structural sexes. shifts for Utah. An initial set of products is available online • Natural increase (births minus deaths) is projected to at gardner.utah.edu. Additional research briefs, fact remain positive and account for two-thirds of the cu- sheets, web-enabled visualizations, and other products mulative population increase to 2065. However, giv- will be produced in the coming year. en increased life expectancy and declining fertility, the rate and amount of natural increase are project- State-Level Results ed to slowly decline over time. -
Human Population 2018 Lecture 8 Ecological Footprint
Human Population 2018 Lecture 8 Ecological footprint. The Daly criterea. Questions from the reading. pp. 87-107 Herman Daly “All my economists say, ‘on the one hand...on the other'. Give me a one- handed economist,” demanded a frustrated Harry S Truman. BOOKS Daly, Herman E. (1991) [1977]. Steady-State Economics (2nd. ed.). Washington, DC: Island Press. Daly, Herman E.; Cobb, John B., Jr (1994) [1989]. For the Common Good: Redirecting the Economy toward Community, the Environment, and a Sustainable Future (2nd. updated and expanded ed.). Boston: Beacon Press.. Received the Grawemeyer Award for ideas for improving World Order. Daly, Herman E. (1996). Beyond Growth: The Economics of Sustainable Development. Boston: Beacon Press. ISBN 9780807047095. Prugh, Thomas; Costanza, Robert; Daly, Herman E. (2000). The Local Politics of Global Sustainability. Washington, DC: Island Press. IS The Daly Criterea for sustainability • For a renewable resource, the sustainable rate to use can be no more than the rate of regeneration of its source. • For a non-renewable resource, the sustainable rate of use can be no greater than the rate at which a renewable resource, used sustainably, can be substituted for it. • For a pollutant, the sustainable rate of emmission can be no greater that the rate it can be recycled, absorbed or rendered harmless in its sink. http://www.footprintnetwork.org/ Ecosystem services Herbivore numbers control Carbon capture and Plant oxygen recycling and production soil replenishment Soil maintenance and processing Carbon and water storage system Do we need wild species? (negative) • We depend mostly on domesticated species for food (chickens...). • Food for domesticated species is itself from domesticated species (grains..) • Domesticated plants only need water, nutrients and light. -
Population Projections for 2020 to 2060 Population Estimates and Projections Current Population Reports
Demographic Turning Points for the United States: Population Projections for 2020 to 2060 Population Estimates and Projections Current Population Reports By Jonathan Vespa, Lauren Medina, and David M. Armstrong P25-1144 Issued March 2018 Revised February 2020 INTRODUCTION Figure The year 2030 marks a demographic Projections of the Older Adult Population to turning point for the United States. By nearly one in four Americans is projected to Beginning that year, all baby boomers be an older adult will be older than 65. This will expand Millions of people years and older Percent of population the size of the older population so that one in every five Americans is projected to be retirement age (Figure 1). Later that decade, by 2034, we project that older adults will outnumber children for the first time in U.S. history. The year 2030 marks another demographic first for the United States. Beginning that year, because of population aging, immigration is projected to overtake natural increase (the excess of births over deaths) as the primary driver of population growth for the country. As the population ages, the number of deaths is projected to rise sub- Source US Census Bureau National Population Projections stantially, which will slow the coun- try’s natural growth. As a result, net is still expected to grow by 79 million people by 2060, international migration is projected to overtake natural crossing the 400-million threshold in 2058. This con- increase, even as levels of migration are projected to tinued growth sets the United States apart from other remain relatively flat. These three demographic mile- developed countries, whose populations are expected stones are expected to make the 2030s a transforma- to barely increase or actually contract in coming tive decade for the U.S. -
Global Population Trends: the Prospects for Stabilization
Global Population Trends The Prospects for Stabilization by Warren C. Robinson Fertility is declining worldwide. It now seems likely that global population will stabilize within the next century. But this outcome will depend on the choices couples make throughout the world, since humans now control their demo- graphic destiny. or the last several decades, world population growth Trends in Growth Fhas been a lively topic on the public agenda. For The United Nations Population Division makes vary- most of the seventies and eighties, a frankly neo- ing assumptions about mortality and fertility to arrive Malthusian “population bomb” view was in ascendan- at “high,” “medium,” and “low” estimates of future cy, predicting massive, unchecked increases in world world population figures. The U.N. “medium” variant population leading to economic and ecological catas- assumes mortality falling globally to life expectancies trophe. In recent years, a pronatalist “birth dearth” of 82.5 years for males and 87.5 for females between lobby has emerged, with predictions of sharp declines the years 2045–2050. in world population leading to totally different but This estimate assumes that modest mortality equally grave economic and social consequences. To declines will continue in the next few decades. By this divergence of opinion has recently been added an implication, food, water, and breathable air will not be emotionally charged debate on international migration. scarce and we will hold our own against new health The volatile mix has exploded into a torrent of threats. It further assumes that policymakers will books, scholarly articles, news stories, and op-ed continue to support medical, scientific, and technolog- pieces, presenting at least superficially plausible data ical advances, and that such policies will continue to and convincing arguments on all sides of every ques- have about the same effect on mortality as they have tion. -
E/CONF.60/19: World Population Plan of Action
19-30 August 1974 World Population Plan of Action UNITED NATIONS POPULATION INFORMATION NETWORK (POPIN) UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) World Population Plan of Action The electronic version of this document is being made available by the United Nations Population Information Network (POPIN) Gopher of the Population Division, Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis. ***************************************************************** WORLD POPULATION PLAN OF ACTION The World Population Conference, Having due regard for human aspirations for a better quality of life and for rapid socio-economic development, Taking into consideration the interrelationship between population situations and socio-economic development, Decides on the following World Population Plan of Action as a policy instrument within the broader context of the internationally adopted strategies for national and international progress: A. BACKGROUND TO THE PLAN 1. The promotion of development and improvement of quality of life require co-ordination of action in all major socio-economic fields including that of population, which is the inexhaustible source of creativity and a determining factor of progress. At the international level a number of strategies and programmes whose http://www.un.org/popin/icpd/conference/bkg/wppa.html 1/46 World Population Plan of Action explicit aim is to affect variables in fields other than population have already been formulated. These -
Westernization of Asian Diets and the Transformation of Food Systems: Implications for Research and Policy
Westernization of Asian Diets and the transformation of food systems: Implications for research and policy Prabhu Pingali ESA Working Paper No. 04-17 September 2004 Agri cultural and Development Economics Division The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations www.fao.org/es/esa Westernization of Asian Diets and the transformation of food systems: Implications for research and policy Prabhu Pingali1 1. Introduction Rapid economic and income growth, urbanization, and globalization are leading to a dramatic shift of Asian diets away from staples and increasingly towards livestock and dairy products, vegetables and fruit, and fats and oils. While the diversification of diets away from the traditional dominance of rice with rising incomes is expected and observed, current food consumption patterns are showing signs of convergence towards a Western diet. Globalization and the consequent global interconnectedness of the urban middle class, is the driving force behind the convergence of diets. The rapid spread of global supermarket chains and fast food restaurants are reinforcing the above trends. The following six key stylised facts characterize the changes in food demand in Asia: i) reduced per capita consumption of rice; ii) increased consumption per capita of wheat and wheat based products; iii) increased diversity in the food groups consumed; iv) rise in high protein and energy dense diets; v) increased consumption of temperate zone products; and vi) the rising popularity of convenience food and beverages. As the demand profile changes with economic growth and globalisation, so the supply systems must adapt to accommodate this change. Asian agriculture is on an irreversible path leading away from its traditional pre- occupation with cereal crop production, especially rice, towards a production system that is becoming increasingly commercialized and diversified. -
Global Typology of Urban Energy Use and Potentials for An
Global typology of urban energy use and potentials for SPECIAL FEATURE an urbanization mitigation wedge Felix Creutziga,b,1, Giovanni Baiocchic, Robert Bierkandtd, Peter-Paul Pichlerd, and Karen C. Setoe aMercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, 10829 Berlin, Germany; bTechnische Universtität Berlin, 10623 Berlin, Germany; cDepartment of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742; dPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany; and eYale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, New Haven, CT 06511 Edited by Sangwon Suh, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, and accepted by the Editorial Board December 4, 2014 (received for review August 17, 2013) The aggregate potential for urban mitigation of global climate (9, 10), and also with GHG emissions from the residential change is insufficiently understood. Our analysis, using a dataset sector (11). The recent IPCC report identifies urban form of 274 cities representing all city sizes and regions worldwide, as a driver of urban emissions but does not provide guidance on demonstrates that economic activity, transport costs, geographic its relative importance vis-à-vis other factors. In comparative factors, and urban form explain 37% of urban direct energy use studies, cities are often sampled from similar geographies (5, 12, and 88% of urban transport energy use. If current trends in urban 13) or population sizes (8). In these studies, causality is difficult expansion continue, urban energy use will increase more than to establish, and self-selection (14) as well as topological prop- threefold, from 240 EJ in 2005 to 730 EJ in 2050. Our model shows erties and specific urban form characteristics (15) partially ex- that urban planning and transport policies can limit the future plain the relationship between urban population density and increase in urban energy use to 540 EJ in 2050 and contribute to transport energy consumption. -
Westernization in China: a Case Study in Processed Potatoes
Westernization in China: A Case Study in Processed Potatoes by Kynda R. Curtis, Jill J. McCluskey, and Thomas I. Wahl* Paper prepared for presentation at the American Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting Montreal, Canada, July 27-30, 2003 *Curtis (corresponding author): Ph.D. Student, Department of Economics, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164-6210, Phone: 509-432-9511, Fax: 509-335-3958, e-mail: [email protected]; McCluskey: Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Washington State University, Pullman; Wahl: Director, International Marketing Program for Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) Center and Professor, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Washington State University, Pullman. The authors gratefully acknowledge financial support from the IMPACT Center at Washington State University. Copyright 2003 by [Curtis, McCluskey, and Wahl]. All rights reserved. Readers may make verbatim copies of this document for non-commercial purposes by any means, provided that this copyright notice appears on all such copies. Westernization in China: A Case Study in Processed Potatoes Keywords: China, potatoes, westernization, food demand, convenience foods Abstract: The demand for convenience foods is growing around the world, especially in China. However, the contributing factors of this change in food preferences are still largely unknown. To measure this westernization trend, data from a survey of Chinese consumers in Beijing is evaluated using a multinomial ordered logit model to determine which consumer attributes influence the probability of consuming western foods such as French fries, mashed potatoes, and potato chips. Results show that higher income levels and positive opinions concerning western food taste have a significant influence on increased consumption of all three processed potato products. -
Handout: Ecological Footprints from Around the World
Ecological Footprints From Around the World Handout Map Your Eco-Footprint lesson plan support material Green Star! Newsletter May/June 2006 Handout: Ecological Footprints From Around the World (Adapted from: “How big is your footprint,” Energy for a Sustainable Future — Education Project, www.esfep.org/ ) Ecological Footprints From Around the World: Where Do You Fit In? How Much Land Do You Need to Live? If you had to provide everything you use from your own land — how much land area would you need? This land would have to provide you with all of your food, water, energy and everything else that you use. The amount of land you would need to support your lifestyle is called your Ecological Footprint. The ecological footprint is one way of measuring the impact a person has on the environment. Is the World Big Enough for All of Our BIG Feet? The size of a person’s Ecological Footprint will depend on many factors. Do you grow your own food? Do you walk or drive? Do you use renewable or non-renewable energy sources? Everyone has an ecological footprint because we all need to use the earth’s resources to survive. But we must make sure we don’t take more resources than the earth can provide. Different people in the same country will have different sized ecological footprints. Different countries also have different ecological footprints. For example, a person with the average Canadian lifestyle has an ecological footprint of 8.56 hectares. A person living in Ethiopia, Africa, has an average ecological footprint of 0.67 hectares.