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Chapter 11 Population Dynamics

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Chapter 11 Population Dynamics APES Chapter 4 Human Population Factors in human population size A. Population Growth =(Births + immigration) - (deaths + emigration) B. When factors are stable ZPG = Zero population Growth C. Use Crude birth and death rate - # per 1000 people D. Rate of change % = birth rate – death rate x 100 1,000 people E. World has slowed population rate but still growing very fast F. Fertility rates 1. Replacement level fertility – couple has 2.1 children 2. Total Fertility rate – TFR – estimate of number of children a woman would have under current age specific birth rates a. better measure b. different in different parts of the world - developed 1.6 - developing 3.4 in developing G. Fertility rates in US – more of a problem because of Americans high resource use. 1. drop in TFR but population still growing – Why? - Large number of baby boomers still in childbearing years - Increase in number of teen mothers US has highest rate of any industrialized countries UN studies say US teens not more sexually active just less likely to know how to prevent pregnancies or less willing to use them. 77% of all teen mothers go on welfare within 5 years - Higher fertility rates non Caucasian mothers - High levels of legal and illegal immigrants – accounts for more than 40% of growth H. Factors that affect Birth and fertility rates 1. level of education and affluence 2. Importance of children in the work force 3. Urbanization 4. Cost of raising and educating children 5. Educational and Employment opportunities for women 6. Infant mortality rates 7. Average age of marriage 8. Availability of private and public pension systems 9. Availability of abortions 10. Availability of reliable methods of birth control 11. Religious beliefs, traditions and cultural norms I. Factors that affect Death rates 1. longer life span – life expectancy 2. less infant deaths – infant mortality rates reduced – best indicator of quality of life 3. Due to better nutrition and health care J. Migration – movement is generally good 1. Generally good – movement from low opportunity to high opportunity 2. Can have Environmental Refugees – fled homes because of environmental problems 3. Governments place restrictions on immigration Population Age Structure A. Even if we could achieve 2.1 fertility rate populations would continue to grow for another 50 years – due to # of individuals capable of reproducing. B. Age structure is broken down into 3 major categories 1. Preproductive – ages 0-14 2. Reproductive – ages 15-44 3. Postproductive – ages 45-85+ C. Age structure diagrams can be used to for economic projections – ex. Baby boomers D. Rapid population decline has negative effects also 1. increase medical/social services 2. labor shortages 3. Some European countries and Japan are facing this dilemma – 2 solutions – encourage births, and all immigration. 12.3 Solutions: Influencing Population Size A. Immigration in US 1. only a few countries – Canada, Australia and US allow large immigrations 2. 40% of US population growth came from immigration 3. 75% immigrants live in Ca, Fl, IL, NY, NJ, TX 4. Problems a. take jobs away b. use state public services c. increases environmental demands 5. Benefits a. do undesirable jobs b. pay federal taxes c. increase supply of goods and services B. Is there a problem with a growing population? 1. Yes a. Can we provide enough food, energy, water, sanitation, education, health care and housing for twice as many people? b. Causes massive environmental problems 2. No a. world can support more – we are always becoming more efficient at producing food, energy, etc. b. more people more powerful nations because of larger work force and military force. 3. Decision might be : Quantity or Quality C. Economic Development and births related? 1. demographic transition – as countries become industrialized, first death rates and then birth rates decline – 4 stages a. preindustrial stage – harsh living conditions, lead to high birth rate and high death rate b. Transitional stage – food and car improves, death rate drops, birth rate continues c. Industrial stage – birth rate drops due to job opportunities, better birth control, longer parental care of children d. Post industrial stage – zpg – many European countries now 2. Demographic trap – death rate falls, birth rate doesn’t – strips local life support systems. Ex. Africa D. How can we reduce births 1. Family planning a. clinics that provide clinic services, education, information and care for birth spacing, birth control, breast feeding and prenatal care b. effective in China, Indonesia, Brazil, Japan, Thailand, Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan c. not effective in India, Egypt, Pakistan, Nigeria and many Latin American countries d. Some opposition to family planning practices usually based on religious grounds 2. Economic Rewards and Penalties a. work better if the encourage and not mandate that people have fewer children 3. Empowering Women a. Women have fewer and healthier children, plus live longer when they have access to education and paying jobs outside the home. Slowing population growth in two most populous countries A. India 1. People are the poorest, perhaps most malnourished in the world 2. 3 times the amount of people as US and smaller land area 3. People still have many children to care for them in old age 4. Tried to coerce people to voluntary sterilization – back fired 5. Have raise legal marring age to 21 for men and 18 for women and trying again for family planning. 6. Looking at job and housing incentives B. China 1. severe drop in birth rate 5.7children – 1.8 children per family 2. infant mortality down and life expectancy up 3. Most extensive, intrusive population control program – under a dictatorship – able to mandate 4. Realized in 1960 the alternative to strict population control was mass starvation 5. Couples with only one child are given more food, larger pensions, better housing, free medical care, kids- free schooling 6. Localized family planning 7. Country is in bad environmental conditions – ex. Timber could be depleted by 2016 .
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