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Global towards 2050

The challenge analysts that recent trends whereby the elimination of absolute “economic” poverty economies of developing countries have in the developing countries (persons living Agriculture in the faces been growing significantly faster that the on less than US$1.25/day in 2005 prices). multiple challenges: it has to produce more developed ones is likely to continue in the Nevertheless, even in 2050 the will and fibre to feed a growing . Relative inequality in per capita still be far from solving the problem of with a smaller rural labour force, more incomes would be reduced considerably economic deprivation and feedstocks for a potentially huge bioenergy by 2050. However, absolute differences of significant parts of the population: the market, contribute to overall development in would remain pronounced and could even US$1.25/day poverty line is simply too the many agriculture-dependent developing increase further, given the current huge low. On less stringent criteria, deprivation countries, adopt more efficient and gaps in absolute per capita incomes. and undernutrition will remain widespread, sustainable production methods and adapt Moreover, inter-country and inter-regional though significantly less than today. to . inequalities within the present-day developing world would tend to become These trends mean that market demand Food demand and production more pronounced. for food would continue to grow. Demand World population is expected to grow by for cereals, for both food and animal feed over a third, or 2.3 billion people, between The projected global economic growth uses is projected to reach some 3 billion 2009 and 2050. This is a much slower rate of about 2.9 percent annually would lead tonnes by 2050, up from today’s nearly of growth than the one seen in the past four to a significant reduction or even near 2.1 billion tonnes. The advent of decades during which it grew by 3.3 billion people, or more than 90 percent. Nearly all of this growth is forecast to take place in the developing countries. Among the latter 10 group, sub-Saharan ’s population 9 would grow the fastest (+114 percent) and 8 East and Southeast ’s the slowest 7 (+13 percent). is foreseen to 6 continue at an accelerating pace with urban 5 Billion 4 areas to account for 70 percent of world 3 population in 2050 (up from 49 percent 2 at present) and rural population, after 1 peaking sometime in the next decade, 0 1975 1970 2015 2010 1950 1955 1995 1985 1980 1965 1990 2025 1960 2020 2050 2035 2040 2045 2030 2005 actually declining. 2000

At the same time, per capita incomes in Developed Other Least World Developing Developed 2050 are projected to be a multiple of Source: UN Population Division, from van der Mensbrugghe et al. 2009 today’s levels. There is a consensus among High Level Expert Forum - How to Feed the World in 2050 Office of the Director, Agricultural Development Division Tel: (+39) 06 57053354 Economic and Social Development Department Fax: (+39) 06 570 53056172 Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00153 Rome, Italy Email: [email protected] has the potential to change some of the developing countries would increase yields and increased cropping intensity, projected trends and cause world demand almost three-fold to reach nearly 300 million with the remainder coming from land to be higher, depending mainly on energy tonnes by 2050 and, by then, would expansion. Arable land would expand by prices and government policies. The account for some 14 percent of their some 70 million ha (or less then 5 percent), demand for other food products that are cereal consumption, up from 9.2 percent with the expansion in developing countries more responsive to higher incomes in the in 2006/08. Cereals self-sufficiency would by about 120 million ha (or 12 percent) being developing countries (such as livestock and continue to be low in the region most offset by a decline of some 50 million ha dairy products, vegetable oils) will grow dependent on food imports (i.e. in the (or 8 percent) in the developed countries. much faster than that for cereals. Near East/North Africa) falling further from Almost all of the land expansion in 59 percent in 2006/08 to 54 percent in developing countries would take place in The projections show that feeding a 2050. At the other extreme, sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. world population of 9.1 billion people in and , now a net cereals deficit 2050 would require raising overall food area, may become fully self-sufficient Land equipped for would expand production by some 70 percent between reflecting the surplus production potential by some 32 million ha (11 percent), while 2005/07 and 2050. Production in the of major countries in the region. The harvested irrigated land would expand developing countries would need to almost other regions may see some decline in by 17 percent. All of this increase would double. This implies significant increases in self-sufficiency, but they will remain in the be in the developing countries. Due to a the production of several key commodities. 80 to 95 percent range compared with 83 slowly improving efficiency in use Annual cereal production, for instance, to 100 percent at present. Concerning other and a decline in the area under (which would have to grow by almost one billion major commodities, developing countries’ is relatively intensive in water use), water tonnes, meat production by over 200 million net exports of oilseeds and vegetable oils withdrawals for irrigation would grow at tonnes to a total of 470 million tonnes in would more than triple by 2050 to some a slower pace but still increase by almost 2050, 72 percent of which in the developing 25 million tonnes (in oil equivalent) and net 11 percent (or some 286 cubic km) by countries, up from the 58 percent today. exports of sugar double to some 20 million 2050. The pressure on renewable water Feeding the world population adequately tonnes by 2050. Again, the advent of resources from irrigation would remain would also mean producing the kinds biofuels has the potential of altering these severe and could even increase slightly in of that are lacking to ensure prospects as all three commodity groups are several countries in the Near East/North nutrition security. used for feedstocks in production. Africa and South Asia.

Crop yields would continue to grow but at International trade Natural resources a slower rate than in the past. This process Trade in agricultural commodities is also Ninety percent of the growth in crop of decelerating growth has already been expected to expand considerably. For production globally (80 percent in developing under way for some time. On average, example, net cereal imports into the countries) is expected to come from higher annual crop yield growth rate over the projection period would be about half (0.8 percent) of its historical growth rate Income growth (1.7 percent; 0.9 and 2.1 percent for the developing countries). Cereal yield growth 160 8 would slowdown to 0.7 percent per annum 140 7 (0.8 percent in developing countries), and 120 6 average cereal yield would by 2050 reach 100 5 some 4.3 tonne/ha, up from 3.2 tonne/ha 80 4 at present.

60 3 ercent per annum 40 2 P Are the projected increases in land, water 20 1 $ trillion at constant 2004 values use and yields feasible? 0 0 The Global Agro-Ecological Zone study 2015 2010 2025 2020 2050 2035 2040 2045 2030 2005 shows that there are still ample land resources with potential for crop production High-income country growth High-income GDP Developing country GDP growth (right-axis) (right-axis) (left-axis) (left-axis) available, but this result needs to be heavily

Source: Simulation results with World Bank’s ENVISAGE model, from van der Mensbrugghe et al. 2009 qualified. Much of the suitable land not yet in use is concentrated in a few countries Arable land in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa, but many countries with growing rural in these regions are extremely 1800 land-scarce, and much of the potential land 1600 is suitable for growing only a few crops that 1400 are not necessarily those for which there 1200 is the highest demand. Also much of the 1000 land not yet in use suffers from constraints million ha (chemical, physical, endemic diseases, lack 800 of infrastructure, etc.) that cannot easily 600 be overcome or that it is not economically 400 viable to do so. Part of the land is forested, 1970 2010 1961 1980 1990 2020 2050 2040 2030 2000 protected or subject to expanding urban settlements. Overall, however, it is fair to say World Developing Developed countries countries that although there is a number of countries (in particular in the Near East/North Africa Source: Bruinsma, 2009 and South Asia) that have reached or are about to reach the limits of land available, on a global scale there are still sufficient Access to food Dietary transition and land resources to feed the world population Current projections suggest that average While progress towards raising average for the foreseeable future, provided that daily energy availability could reach food consumption is a welcome the investments required to develop these 3050 kcal per person by 2050 (2970 kcal development, such rises are not always resources are made and the neglect of in the developing countries), up from an unmixed blessing: the diet transitions recent decades in the agricultural research 2770 kcal in 2003/05. However, the experienced by many countries imply and development effort is reversed. same projections suggest that production changes towards energy-dense diets high increases alone would not be sufficient to in fat, particularly saturated fat, sugar and The availability of resources ensure for everyone. Unless salt and low in micronutrients, dietary fiber shows a similar picture as land availability, governments make sure access to food and important bioactive phytochemicals. i.e. globally more than sufficient but very by the needy and vulnerable is significantly In combination with lifestyle changes, unevenly distributed, with an increasing improved, and while the prevalence of largely associated with rapid urbanization, number of countries or regions within chronic undernourishment in developing such transitions, while beneficent in many countries reaching alarming levels of water countries could fall from 16.3 percent countries with still inadequate diets, are scarcity. This is often the case in the same (823 million) in 2003/05 to 4.8 percent in often accompanied by a corresponding countries in the Near East/North Africa and 2050, this would still mean that some 370 increase in diet-related chronic non- South Asia that have no land resources left. million persons would be undernourished in communicable diseases (NCDs). In many A mitigating factor could be the fact that 2050. Of the three developing regions with countries undergoing this transition, there are still ample opportunities to increase the highest numbers of undernourished obesity-related NCDs appear when health water use efficiency (e.g. through providing people currently, declines would be most problems related to undernutrition of the right incentives to use less water). pronounced in Asia (both East and South significant parts of their populations are The potential to raise crop yields even Asia), but less so in sub-Saharan Africa. On still widely prevalent. The two problems with the existing technologies seems these prospects, the World Food Summit co-exist and present these countries with considerable. Provided the appropriate target of halving the numbers of hungry novel challenges and strains in their health socio-economic incentives are in place, people by 2015 (from the 813 million of systems that must be addressed in policies there are still ample ‘bridgeable’ gaps in 1990/92) may not be reached until well into and programmes to increase consumers’ yield (i.e. the difference between agro- the 2040s. These calculations underline awareness about nutrition, promote ecologically attainable and actual yields) the importance of putting in place effective balanced and healthy diets and improve that could be exploited. Fears that yields poverty reduction strategies, safety nets food welfare. (e.g. for rice) are reaching a plateau do and rural development programmes. not seem warranted (except in a few very special instances). Discussion points To what extent will countries be able to tackle water problems by encouraging improved efficiency in water use, or by developing innovative systems for trading water rights? What policies are Should the focus of government intervention be primarily on needed to ensure optimal water use? increasing local food production, or should it lean more towards How can agricultural land, including land already under cultivation increasing access to food and stimulating rural development as well as land newly converted for agricultural production, be in general? used more productively and sustainably? How can investment What will happen to countries and regions that remain in food in new land to be converted into agricultural production deficit in 2050 – how can their food security be assured? What are be stimulated? the risks and opportunities?

Hunger and poverty reduction stimulate overall economic growth. At the and remain in the sector and help others as economies transform same time, overall economic development commercialize and grow. Timing, pacing Experience of countries that have created new employment opportunities and sequencing of the measures facilitating succeeded in reducing hunger and that helped absorb the rural labour surplus this transition remains a particular challenge malnutrition shows that economic growth that emerged from the transformation of for policy-makers in all countries. and poverty reduction policies as such agriculture. Theoretically, the result is a do not automatically ensure success: transition from many, small subsistence While the role of agriculture as a driver of the source of growth matters too. Cross- producers to fewer and larger commercial overall growth would diminish over time country analysis shows that GDP growth farmers and a new equilibrium with fewer along with its share in GDP, the experience originating in agriculture is, on average, farmers, more non-farm employment and of today’s middle income countries at least twice as effective in benefiting larger farm operations overall. suggests that its role in poverty and hunger the poorest half of a country’s population reduction would continue to be significant. as growth generated in non-agricultural The outlook to 2050 suggests that many Agriculture’s contribution to hunger sectors. This is not surprising as 75 percent developing countries are on the pathway reduction consists not just in producing of the poor in developing countries live to such transformation. Higher agricultural food where needs are most pronounced, in rural areas and derive significant parts productivity and a growing saturation of but also in creating employment, generating of their livelihoods from agriculture and food demand will ultimately limit the overall income and supporting rural livelihoods. related activities. For agriculture-dependent income contribution potential of agriculture Poverty reduction requires investments countries in particular, agricultural growth is and circumscribe the number of livelihoods in a number of different areas. These key for overall growth and development and that can be sustained by the sector. At include: 1) investments in sectors strongly for poverty reduction. the same time, integration of primary linked to agricultural productivity growth, production agriculture in the agro-industrial such as rural infrastructure (roads, ports, A vibrant agricultural sector has been system will favour capital and knowledge power, storage and irrigation systems); the basis for a successful economic intensive agriculture and larger holdings. 2) investments in institutions and the transformation in many of today’s developed This means that while some farmers will broader enabling environment for farmers countries. It was the precursor to the be able to expand their operations, others (research and extension services, land industrial revolutions in and the USA will be severely challenged in their efforts tenure systems, veterinary and food and more recently to those in , , to compete in the sector and meet the safety control systems, insurance and Republic of Korea, Thailand, Viet Nam and stringent food quality and safety standards risk management); and 3) non-agricultural other rapidly growing Asian economies. required by processors and retailers. Policy- investment to bring about positive impacts During these transformations, investment makers can accompany this transition by on wellbeing, including targeted in agriculture created agricultural surpluses, providing incentive structures that allow food safety nets, social programmes and kept real low and helped farmers to adapt to the new conditions cash transfers to the most needy.

For further information

High Level Expert Forum - How to Feed the World in 2050 Office of the Director, Agricultural Development Economics Division Tel: (+39) 06 57053354 Economic and Social Development Department Fax: (+39) 06 57056172 Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00153 Rome, Italy Email: [email protected]