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Statistical Aspects of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960–2013: Part 1

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Statistical Aspects of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960–2013: Part 1 National Aeronautics and NASA/TP—2014–218196 Space Administration IS20 George C. Marshall Space Flight Center Huntsville, Alabama 35812 Statistical Aspects of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960–2013: Part 1 Robert M. Wilson Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, Alabama July 2014 The NASA STI Program…in Profile Since its founding, NASA has been dedicated to the • CONFERENCE PUBLICATION. Collected advancement of aeronautics and space science. The papers from scientific and technical conferences, NASA Scientific and Technical Information (STI) symposia, seminars, or other meetings sponsored Program Office plays a key part in helping NASA or cosponsored by NASA. maintain this important role. • SPECIAL PUBLICATION. Scientific, technical, The NASA STI Program Office is operated by or historical information from NASA programs, Langley Research Center, the lead center for projects, and mission, often concerned with NASA’s scientific and technical information. The subjects having substantial public interest. NASA STI Program Office provides access to the NASA STI Database, the largest collection of • TECHNICAL TRANSLATION. aeronautical and space science STI in the world. English-language translations of foreign The Program Office is also NASA’s institutional scientific and technical material pertinent to mechanism for disseminating the results of its NASA’s mission. research and development activities. These results are published by NASA in the NASA STI Report Specialized services that complement the STI Series, which includes the following report types: Program Office’s diverse offerings include creating custom thesauri, building customized databases, • TECHNICAL PUBLICATION. Reports of organizing and publishing research results…even completed research or a major significant providing videos. phase of research that present the results of NASA programs and include extensive data For more information about the NASA STI Program or theoretical analysis. Includes compilations Office, see the following: of significant scientific and technical data and information deemed to be of continuing • Access the NASA STI program home page at reference value. NASA’s counterpart of peer- <http://www.sti.nasa.gov> reviewed formal professional papers but has less stringent limitations on manuscript length and • E-mail your question via the Internet to extent of graphic presentations. <[email protected]> • TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM. Scientific • Phone the NASA STI Help Desk at and technical findings that are preliminary or of 757 –864–9658 specialized interest, e.g., quick release reports, working papers, and bibliographies that contain • Write to: minimal annotation. Does not contain extensive NASA STI Information Desk analysis. Mail Stop 148 NASA Langley Research Center • CONTRACTOR REPORT. Scientific and Hampton, VA 23681–2199, USA technical findings by NASA-sponsored contractors and grantees. NASA/TP—2014–218196 Statistical Aspects of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960–2013: Part 1 Robert M. Wilson Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, Alabama National Aeronautics and Space Administration Marshall Space Flight Center • Huntsville, Alabama 35812 July 2014 i Available from: NASA STI Information Desk Mail Stop 148 NASA Langley Research Center Hampton, VA 23681–2199, USA 757–864–9658 This report is also available in electronic form at <http://www.sti.nasa.gov> ii TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 1 2. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ......................................................................................... 2 2.1 First Storm Day, Last Storm Day, and Length of Season ............................................. 2 2.2 Number of Tropical Cyclones, Hurricanes, Major Hurricanes, and United States Land-Falling Hurricanes ............................................................................................... 6 2.3 Latitude and Longitude Genesis Location .................................................................... 11 2.4 Peak Wind Speed and Lowest Pressure ......................................................................... 16 2.5 Accumulated Cyclone Energy and Power Dissipation Index ......................................... 21 2.6 Total Number of Storm Days, Hurricane Days, and Major Hurricane Days ................ 25 2.7 Net Tropical Cyclone Activity ....................................................................................... 34 3. SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................ 35 APPENDIX ............................................................................................................................. 38 REFERENCES ....................................................................................................................... 66 iii LIST OF FIGURES 1. Variation of (a) FSD, (b) LSD, and (c) LOS for the interval 1960–2013 .................... 5 2. Scatterplot of LOS versus FSD ................................................................................. 6 3. Variation of NTC for the interval 1960–2013 ............................................................ 7 4. Variation of (a) NH, (b) NMH, and (c) NUSLFH for the interval 1960–2013 .......... 8 5. Variation of (a) <LAT> and (b) <LONG> for the interval 1960–2013 ..................... 12 6. Scatterplot of <LAT> versus <LONG> ................................................................... 13 7. Variation of (a) PWS, (b) <PWS>, (c) LP, and (d) <LP> for the interval 1960–2013 ......................................................................................... 16 8. Scatterplots of (a) LP versus PWS and (b) <LP> versus <PWS> ............................. 18 9. Variation of (a) total ACE and (b) total PDI for the interval 1960–2013 ................... 21 10. Variation of (a) HISACE and (b) HISPDI for the interval 1960–2013 ...................... 22 11. Scatterplots of (a) total PDI versus total ACE and (b) HISPDI versus HISACE ...... 23 12. Variation of (a) <ACE> and (b) <PDI> for the interval 1960–2013 ......................... 24 13. Variation of (a) total NSD, (b) total NHD, and (c) total NMHD for the interval 1960–2013 ......................................................................................... 26 14. Variation of <NSD> for the interval 1960–2013 ....................................................... 27 15. Variation of LISNSD for the interval 1960–2013 ...................................................... 27 16. Variation of NTCA for the interval 1960–2013 ......................................................... 34 iv LIST OF TABLES 1. Monthly frequencies of tropical cyclones (1960–2013) .............................................. 3 2. Poisson probabilities for NTC, NH, NMH, and NUSLFH based on the interval 1960–2013 .......................................................................................... 9 3. Poisson probabilities for NTC, NH, NMH, and NUSLFH based on the interval 1960–2013 incorporating ENY and NENY ....................................... 11 4. Frequencies of tropical cyclones by groups (1960–2013) ........................................... 14 5. Tropical cyclones having PWS = 140 kt or higher (1960–2013) .................................. 19 6. Tropical cyclones having LP = 935 mb or lower (1960–2013) ..................................... 20 7. Tropical cyclones having ACE and/or PDI > 40 (1960–2013) ..................................... 25 8. Tropical cyclones having NSD = 7 days or more (1960–2013) .................................... 28 9. Tropical cyclones having NHD = 7 days or more (1960–2013) ................................... 32 10. Listing of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones, 1960–present (the weather satellite era) ........................................................................................... 39 11. Summary of tropical cyclone counts and parametric values for the North Atlantic basin, 1960–2013 ................................................................... 64 v LIST OF ACRONYMS AND DESIGNATORS ACE accumulated cyclone energy <ACE> mean seasonal ACE AMO Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (index) DOY day of year ENY El Niño year FSD first storm day H hurricane HISACE highest individual storm ACE HISPDI highest individual storm PDI HURDAT Hurricane Database (old) HURDAT2 Hurricane Database (new) <LAT> mean seasonal latitude LISNSD longest individual storm NSD <LONG> mean seasonal longitude LOS length of season LP lowest pressure <LP> mean seasonal LP LSD last storm day MH major hurricane NENY non-El Niño year vi LIST OF ACRONYMS AND DESIGNATORS (Continued) NH number of hurricanes NHD number of hurricane days NMH number of major hurricanes NMHD number of major hurricane days NSD number of storm days <NSD> mean seasonal NSD NTC number of tropical cyclones NTCA Net Tropical Cyclone Activity NUSLFH number of USFLH ONI Oceanic Niño Index PDI Power Dissipation Index <PDI> mean seasonal PDI PWS peak wind speed <PWS> mean seasonal PWS SS substorm TC tropical cyclone TP Technical Publication U.S. United States USLFH U.S. land-falling hurricanes vii NOMENCLATURE a y-intercept b slope of the inferred regression line cl confidence level n number na number above median nb number below median nra number of positive runs P probability P(r) probability of r events r coefficient of correlation r2 coefficient
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