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Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology FLORIDA COMMISSION ON HURRICANE LOSS PROJECTION METHODOLOGY November 2016 Submission April 12, 2017 Revision Florida Hurricane Model 2017a A Component of the CoreLogic North Atlantic Hurricane Model in Risk Quantification and EngineeringTM Submitted under the 2015 Standards of the FCHLPM 1 Irvine, CA Oakland, CA Boulder, CO Austin, TX Westlake, TX April 12, 2017 Madison, WI Milwaukee, WI Lorilee Medders, Chair London, UK Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology Paris, France c/o Donna Sirmons Florida State Board of Administration 1801 Hermitage Boulevard, Suite 100 Tallahassee, FL 32308 Dear Lorilee Medders: I am pleased to inform you that CoreLogic, Inc. is ready for the Commission’s review and re-certification of the Florida Hurricane Model component of its Risk Quantification and EngineeringTM software for use in Florida. As required by the Commission, enclosed are the data and analyses for the General, Meteorological, Vulnerability, Actuarial, Statistical, and Computer Standards, updated to reflect compliance with the Standards set forth in the Commission’s Report of Activities as of November 1, 2015. In addition, the CoreLogic Florida Hurricane Model has been reviewed by professionals having credentials and/or experience in the areas of meteorology, engineering, actuarial science, statistics, and computer science, as documented in the signed Expert Certification (Forms G-1 to G-6). We have also completed the Editorial Certification (Form G-7). The following changes were made to the model between the previously accepted submission (Florida Hurricane Model 2015a) and the current submission (Florida Hurricane Model 2017a): 1. The probabilistic hurricane database has been regenerated to be consistent with the National Hurricane Center’s HURDAT2 data set as of June 9, 2015. 2. The storm parameters Rmax, Forward Speed, and Profile Factor have been updated to reflect updates in the HRD HURDAT Reanalysis Project and HURDAT2 data set. 3. The ZIP Code database has been updated to March 2016. 4. Vulnerability functions have been updated as follows: vulnerability functions for appurtenant structures have been updated; post 1994 default manufactured homes have been updated from double-wide to single-wide; ASTM D7158 Class D and Class H shingles have been introduced; and 1996-2002 default masonry structures have been set to unreinforced masonry outside of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties. The user can also explicitly specify masonry structures to be reinforced or unreinforced regardless of year built or location. 5. Structure type assignments provided in the model for the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund Portfolio and unknown structure types have been updated. This update impacts loss costs in Forms A-2, A-3, A-8, S-2, and S-5. 6. Functionality for screened enclosures and high-valued homes has been implemented. This functionality has not been used in the submission. 7. Time element calculations have been updated to account for secondary structural characteristics and year-of-construction. CoreLogic is confident that its Florida Hurricane Model is in compliance with the Commission’s standards and is ready to be reviewed by the Professional Team. Sincerely, CoreLogic, Inc. Justin M. Brolley Senior Principal Research Scientist, Model Development, Insurance and Spatial Solutions 2 April 12, 2017 3:09 pm PDT Enclosures: 1. 7 bound copies of the CoreLogic Submission 2. 1 CD (labeled ‘FCHLPM – CoreLogic 2015’) containing an electronic copy of the CoreLogic Submission (FCHLPM_CoreLogic2015_12April2017.pdf) and the following files: 2015FormM1_CoreLogic_27October2016.xlsx 2015FormM3_CoreLogic_20March2017.xlsx 2015FormV2_CoreLogic_20March2017.xlsx 2015FormA1_CoreLogic_20March2017.xlsx 2015FormA1_CoreLogic_20March2017.pdf 2015FormA2_CoreLogic_20March2017.xlsx 2015FormA3_CoreLogic_20March2017.xlsx 2015FormA3_CoreLogic_20March2017.xlsx 2015FormA5_CoreLogic_20March2017.xlsx 2015FormA7_CoreLogic_20March2017.xlsx 2015FormA8_CoreLogic_20March2017.xlsx CoreLogic, inc., • 555 12th Street, 11th Floor, Suite 1100 • Oakland, California 94607 USA • Phone 510.285.3956 3 April 12, 2017 3:09 pm PDT The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology Model Submission Checklist 1. Please indicate by checking below that the following has been included in your submission to the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology. Yes No Item X 1. Letter to the Commission X a. Refers to the certification forms and states that professionals having credentials and/or experience in the areas of meteorology, statistics, structural/wind engineering, actuarial science, and computer/information science have reviewed the model for compliance with the standards X b. States model is ready to be reviewed by the Professional Team X c. Any caveats to the above statements noted with a complete explanation X 2. Summary statement of compliance with each individual standard and the data and analyses required in the disclosures and forms X 3. General description of any trade secret information the modeling organization intends to present to the Professional Team and the Commission X 4. Model Identification X 5. Seven (7) Bound Copies (duplexed) X 6. Link emailed to SBA staff containing all required documentation that can be downloaded from a single ZIP file X a. Submission text in PDF format X b. PDF file supports highlighting and hyperlinking, and is bookmarked by standard, form, and section X c. Data file names include abbreviated name of modeling organization, standards year, and form name (when applicable) X d. Form S-6 (Hypothetical Events for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis), if required, in ASCII and PDF format X e. Forms M-1 (Annual Occurrence Rates), M-3 (Radius of Maximum Winds and Radii of Standard Wind Thresholds), V-2 (Mitigation Measures – Range of Changes in Damage), A-1 (Zero Deductible Personal Residential Loss Costs by ZIP Code), A-2 (Base Hurricane Storm Set Statewide Losses), A-3 (2004 Hurricane Season Losses, A-4 (Output Ranges), A-5 (Percentage Change in Output Ranges), A-7 (Percentage Change in Logical Relationship to Risk), and A-8 (Probable Maximum Loss for Florida) in Excel format X 7. All hyperlinks to the locations of forms are functional X 8. Table of Contents X 9. Materials consecutively numbered from beginning to end starting with the first page (including cover) using a single numbering system, including date and time in footnote X 10. All tables, graphs, and other non-text items consecutively numbered using whole numbers, listed in Table of Contents, and clearly labeled with abbreviations defined X 11. All column headings shown and repeated at the top of every subsequent page for forms and tables X 12. Standards, disclosures, and forms in italics, modeling organization responses in non-italics X 13. All graphs and maps conform to guidelines in II. Notification Requirements A.5.e. X 14. All units of measurement clearly identified with appropriate units used X 15. All forms included in submission document as appendix except Forms V-3 (Mitigation Measures – Mean Damage Ratios and Loss Costs, Trade Secret item) and A-6 (Logical Relationship to Risk, Trade Secret item). X 16. Hard copy documentation identical to electronic version X 17. Signed Expert Certification Forms G-1 to G-7 X 18. All acronyms listed and defined in submission appendix 2. Explanation of “No” responses indicated above. (Attach additional pages if needed.) Form S-6 was submitted in 2010, and can be made available upon request. CoreLogic Florida Hurricane Model 2017a Apr. 12, 2017 Model Name Modeler Signature Date 4 April 12, 2017 3:09 pm PDT The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology Model Identification Name of Model and Version: CoreLogic Florida Hurricane Model 2017a Name of Platform: Risk Quantification and Engineering Name of Modeling Organization: CoreLogic, inc. Street Address: 555 12th Street, Suite 1100 City, State, ZIP Code: Oakland, CA 94607 Mailing Address, if different from above: _______________________________________________________________________ Contact Person: Justin Brolley Phone Number: (510) 285-3962 E-mail Address: [email protected] 5 April 12, 2017 3:09 pm PDT The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology Licenses and Trademarks A number of trademarks and registered trademarks appear in this document. CoreLogic, Inc. acknowledges all trademarks and the rights in the trademarks owned by the companies referred to herein. CoreLogic, USQUAKE, Risk Quantification and EngineeringTM are trademarks of CoreLogic, inc. Windows™ is a trademark of Microsoft Corporation. 5-Digit ZIP Code data for the United States, Puerto Rico, and the District of Columbia. Copyright© 2016 HERE All Rights Reserved. 6 April 12, 2017 3:09 pm PDT The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology General Description of Trade Secret Information (Checklist Item #3) The following items are trade secret information that will be presented to the Commission and Professional Team: Form A-6 Form V-3 Additional items identified by the Professional Team during on-site visit and/or additional verification review 7 April 12, 2017 3:09 pm PDT The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology TABLE OF CONTENTS 2015 STANDARDS Page GENERAL STANDARDS ......................................................................... 14 G-1 Scope of the Computer Model and Its Implementation ............................................................ 14 G-2 Qualifications of Modeling
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