FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER by DAY (To 1994)
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Wind Speed-Damage Correlation in Hurricane Katrina
JP 1.36 WIND SPEED-DAMAGE CORRELATION IN HURRICANE KATRINA Timothy P. Marshall* Haag Engineering Co. Dallas, Texas 1. INTRODUCTION According to Knabb et al. (2006), Hurricane Katrina Mehta et al. (1983) and Kareem (1984) utilized the was the costliest hurricane disaster in the United States to concept of wind speed-damage correlation after date. The hurricane caused widespread devastation from Hurricanes Frederic and Alicia, respectively. In essence, Florida to Louisiana to Mississippi making a total of three each building acts like an anemometer that records the landfalls before dissipating over the Ohio River Valley. wind speed. A range of failure wind speeds can be The storm damaged or destroyed many properties, determined by analyzing building damage whereas especially near the coasts. undamaged buildings can provide upper bounds to the Since the hurricane, various agencies have conducted wind speeds. In 2006, WSEC developed a wind speed- building damage assessments to estimate the wind fields damage scale entitled the EF-scale, named after the late that occurred during the storm. The National Oceanic Dr. Ted Fujita. The author served on this committee. and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, 2005a) Wind speed-damage correlation is useful especially conducted aerial and ground surveys and published a when few ground-based wind speed measurements are wind speed map. Likewise, the Federal Emergency available. Such was the case in Hurricane Katrina when Management Agency (FEMA, 2006) conducted a similar most of the automated stations failed before the eye study and produced another wind speed map. Both reached the coast. However, mobile towers were studies used a combination of wind speed-damage deployed by Texas Tech University (TTU) at Slidell, LA correlation, actual wind measurements, as well as and Bay St. -
NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS HYDR0-20 STORM TIDE
NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS HYDR0-20 STORM TIDE FREQUENCY ANALYSIS FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM CAPE SAN BLAS TO ST. PETERSBURG BEACH Francis P. Ho and Robert J. Tracey Office of Hydrology Silver Spring, Md. April 1975 UNITED STATES /NATIONAL OCEANIC AND / National Weather DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION Service Frederick B. Dent, Secretar1 Robert M. White, Administrator George P, Cressman, Director CONTENTS 1. Introduction. • • • • • • • 1 1.1 Objective and scope •• 1 1.2 Authorization •• 1 1.3 Study method •• 2 2. Summary of historical hurricanes •• 2 2.1 Hurricane tracks 2 2.2 Historical notes 3 3. Climatology of hurricane characteristics. 8 3.1 Frequency of hurricane tracks •••. 8 3.2 Probability distribution of hurricane intensity. 8 3.3 Probability distribution of radius of maximum winds. 9 3.4 Probability distribution of speed and direction of forward motion • . • • • • • • • • 9 4. Hurricane surge • • • • 9 4.1 Surge model ••• 9 4.2 Shoaling factor •• 10 5. Tide frequency analysis by joint probability method • 10 5.1 The joint probability method • 10 5.2 Astronomical tides •••••• 11 5.2.1 Reference datum •.•••• 11 Table 1. Tropical storm parameters - Clearwater, Fla 12 Table 2. Tropical storm parameters - Bayport, Fla •• 13 Table 3. Tropical storm parameters - Cedar Key, Fla. 14 Table 4. Tropical storm parameters- Rock ·Islands, Fla .. 15 Table 5. Tropical storm parameters - Carrabelle, Fla • 16 Table 6. Tropical storm parameters - Apalachicola, Fla 17 5.2.2 Astronomical tide • • • •.• 19 5.3 Prestorm water level ••••••. 19 5.4 Tide frequencies • • • • . • ••• 19 5.5 Adjustment along coast ••••••.•••.•••. 19 5.6 Comparison of frequency curves with observed tides and high-water marks • • • • • • • • • • • . -
Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook for June 2020
Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook for June 2020 ELEVATED U.S. RISKS FROM HURRICANE SEASON 2020 AS VERY BUSY YEAR BEGINS… Outlook Overview ➢ WeatherTiger’s WeatherTiger's June outlook for the 2020 hurricane season is for a 75-80% chance of an above average year, with a 15-20% chance of near-normal and just a 5% chance of below-normal cumulative activity. The median of our forecast is about 180% of average hurricane season activity, or around 19 named storms, nine hurricanes and five major hurricanes. ➢ This is slightly above the consensus of some other recently issued forecasts, likely due to our model's bullishness towards a La Niña developing by late summer or early fall. However, almost all forecast groups project above normal activity. ➢ Overall, while model skill remains limited at this range, convergent lines of evidence from our objective modeling and seasonal analogs support an active season, with the potential for a risky steering current regime in the peak months. Updated Seasonal Outlook for Tropical Cyclone Activity On a lighter note: hurricane season. The devil you know is back. Unlike a pandemic, at least taking down the shutters after a storm won’t make it return. This doesn’t imply that hurricane season 2020 will be reasonable. WeatherTiger’s updated seasonal forecast and a consensus of other guidance favors an abnormally active year. We expect net activity of about three-quarters more than the average season, with 95% odds of more storms than Dr. Birx has scarves. I’ll get into the forecast rationale and what it may mean for Florida, but first, a quick orientation for new readers: I’m Dr. -
Significant Loss Report
NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE PROGRAM Bureau and Statistical Agent W-01049 3019-01 MEMORANDUM TO: Write Your Own (WYO) Principal Coordinators and NFIP Servicing Agent FROM: WYO Clearinghouse DATE: July 18, 2001 SUBJECT: Significant Loss Report Enclosed is a listing of significant flooding events that occurred between February 1978 and October 2000. Only those events that had more than 1500 losses are included on the list. These data were compiled for WYO Companies and others to use to remind their customers of the impact of past flooding events. Please use this information in your marketing efforts as you feel it is appropriate. If you have any questions, please contact your WYO Program Coordinator. Enclosure cc: Vendors, IBHS, FIPNC, WYO Standards Committee, WYO Marketing Committee, ARCHIVEDGovernment Technical Representative APRIL 2018 Suggested Routing: Claims, Marketing, Underwriting 7700 HUBBLE DRIVE • LANHAM, MD 20706 • (301) 731-5300 COMPUTER SCIENCES CORPORATION, under contract to the FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY, is the Bureau and Statistical Agent for the National Flood Insurance Program NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE PROGRAM SIGNIFICANT FLOOD EVENTS REPORT EVENT YEAR # PD LOSSES AMOUNT PD ($) AVG PD LOSS Massachusetts Flood Feb. 1978 Feb-78 2,195 $20,081,479 $9,149 Louisiana Flood May 1978 May-78 7,284 $43,288,709 $5,943 WV, IN, KY, OH Floods Dec 1978 Dec-78 1,879 $11,934,512 $6,352 PA, CT, MA, NJ, NY, RI Floods Jan-79 8,826 $31,487,015 $3,568 Texas Flood April 1979 Apr-79 1,897 $19,817,668 $10,447 Florida Flood April 1979 Apr-79 -
Historical Changes in the Mississippi-Alabama Barrier Islands and the Roles of Extreme Storms, Sea Level, and Human Activities
HISTORICAL CHANGES IN THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BARRIER ISLANDS AND THE ROLES OF EXTREME STORMS, SEA LEVEL, AND HUMAN ACTIVITIES Robert A. Morton 88∞46'0"W 88∞44'0"W 88∞42'0"W 88∞40'0"W 88∞38'0"W 88∞36'0"W 88∞34'0"W 88∞32'0"W 88∞30'0"W 88∞28'0"W 88∞26'0"W 88∞24'0"W 88∞22'0"W 88∞20'0"W 88∞18'0"W 30∞18'0"N 30∞18'0"N 30∞20'0"N Horn Island 30∞20'0"N Petit Bois Island 30∞16'0"N 30∞16'0"N 30∞18'0"N 30∞18'0"N 2005 2005 1996 Dauphin Island 1996 2005 1986 1986 30∞16'0"N Kilometers 30∞14'0"N 0 1 2 3 4 5 1966 30∞16'0"N 1950 30∞14'0"N 1950 Kilometers 1917 0 1 2 3 4 5 1917 1848 1849 30∞14'0"N 30∞14'0"N 30∞12'0"N 30∞12'0"N 30∞12'0"N 30∞12'0"N 30∞10'0"N 30∞10'0"N 88∞46'0"W 88∞44'0"W 88∞42'0"W 88∞40'0"W 88∞38'0"W 88∞36'0"W 88∞34'0"W 88∞32'0"W 88∞30'0"W 88∞28'0"W 88∞26'0"W 88∞24'0"W 88∞22'0"W 88∞20'0"W 88∞18'0"W 89∞10'0"W 89∞8'0"W 89∞6'0"W 89∞4'0"W 88∞58'0"W 88∞56'0"W 88∞54'0"W 88∞52'0"W 30∞16'0"N Cat Island Ship Island 30∞16'0"N 2005 30∞14'0"N 1996 30∞14'0"N 1986 Kilometers 1966 0 1 2 3 30∞14'0"N 1950 30∞14'0"N 1917 1848 Fort 2005 Massachusetts 1995 1986 Kilometers 1966 0 1 2 3 30∞12'0"N 1950 30∞12'0"N 1917 30∞12'0"N 30∞12'0"N 1848 89∞10'0"W 89∞8'0"W 89∞6'0"W 89∞4'0"W 88∞58'0"W 88∞56'0"W 88∞54'0"W 88∞52'0"W Open-File Report 2007-1161 U.S. -
Hurricane and Tropical Storm
State of New Jersey 2014 Hazard Mitigation Plan Section 5. Risk Assessment 5.8 Hurricane and Tropical Storm 2014 Plan Update Changes The 2014 Plan Update includes tropical storms, hurricanes and storm surge in this hazard profile. In the 2011 HMP, storm surge was included in the flood hazard. The hazard profile has been significantly enhanced to include a detailed hazard description, location, extent, previous occurrences, probability of future occurrence, severity, warning time and secondary impacts. New and updated data and figures from ONJSC are incorporated. New and updated figures from other federal and state agencies are incorporated. Potential change in climate and its impacts on the flood hazard are discussed. The vulnerability assessment now directly follows the hazard profile. An exposure analysis of the population, general building stock, State-owned and leased buildings, critical facilities and infrastructure was conducted using best available SLOSH and storm surge data. Environmental impacts is a new subsection. 5.8.1 Profile Hazard Description A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or sub-tropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation. Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes are all considered tropical cyclones. These storms rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere around the center and are accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA] 2013a). Almost all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) form between June 1 and November 30 (hurricane season). August and September are peak months for hurricane development. -
Florida's Water Resources1
FE757 Florida’s Water Resources1 Tatiana Borisova and Tara Wade2 Introduction: Why Water Resources Are Important “Water is the lifeblood of our bodies, our economy, our nation and our well-being” (Stephen Lee Johnson, Head of EPA under G.W. Bush Administration). This quote sums up the importance of water resources. We use water for drinking, gardening, and other household uses, in agriculture (e.g., for irrigation), and in energy production and industrial processes (e.g., for cooling in thermoelectric power generation). Clean and plentiful water resources are also important for our recreational activities (e.g., boating, swimming, or fishing). Water also Figure 1. In November, manatees migrate to warmer coastal waters, sustains wildlife (such as manatees) and is an integral part such as Crystal River on the west coast of Florida (Source: UF/IFAS/ICS) of Florida’s environment (Figure 1). The use of water is increasing along with Florida’s of Florida’s water resources is a first step toward optimizing population. Floridians rely on underground freshwater current freshwater supply use and ensuring adequate water reserves, called aquifers, to supply our diverse water needs resources in the future. (USGS 2016a). In some Florida regions, this underground freshwater reserve can no longer sustain the growing water demands of the population, while also feeding Florida’s riv- Hydrologic Cycle: Where Water ers, springs, and lakes. With periodic droughts, shortages of Originates and Where It Goes freshwater may occur. Drought and water shortages in the Toni Morrison, an American novelist, once said that “all state have caused urban planners and policy makers to pay water has a perfect memory and is forever trying to get closer attention to water use, water supply development, back to where it was.” Indeed, water is constantly moving. -
Fishing Pier Design Guidance Part 1
Fishing Pier Design Guidance Part 1: Historical Pier Damage in Florida Ralph R. Clark Florida Department of Environmental Protection Bureau of Beaches and Coastal Systems May 2010 Table of Contents Foreword............................................................................................................................. i Table of Contents ............................................................................................................... ii Chapter 1 – Introduction................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 2 – Ocean and Gulf Pier Damages in Florida................................................... 4 Chapter 3 – Three Major Hurricanes of the Late 1970’s............................................... 6 September 23, 1975 – Hurricane Eloise ...................................................................... 6 September 3, 1979 – Hurricane David ........................................................................ 6 September 13, 1979 – Hurricane Frederic.................................................................. 7 Chapter 4 – Two Hurricanes and Four Storms of the 1980’s........................................ 8 June 18, 1982 – No Name Storm.................................................................................. 8 November 21-24, 1984 – Thanksgiving Storm............................................................ 8 August 30-September 1, 1985 – Hurricane Elena ...................................................... 9 October 31, -
Hurricane & Tropical Storm
5.8 HURRICANE & TROPICAL STORM SECTION 5.8 HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM 5.8.1 HAZARD DESCRIPTION A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or sub-tropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation. Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes are all considered tropical cyclones. These storms rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere around the center and are accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds (NOAA, 2013). Almost all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) form between June 1 and November 30 (hurricane season). August and September are peak months for hurricane development. The average wind speeds for tropical storms and hurricanes are listed below: . A tropical depression has a maximum sustained wind speeds of 38 miles per hour (mph) or less . A tropical storm has maximum sustained wind speeds of 39 to 73 mph . A hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 74 mph or higher. In the western North Pacific, hurricanes are called typhoons; similar storms in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean are called cyclones. A major hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 111 mph or higher (NOAA, 2013). Over a two-year period, the United States coastline is struck by an average of three hurricanes, one of which is classified as a major hurricane. Hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions may pose a threat to life and property. These storms bring heavy rain, storm surge and flooding (NOAA, 2013). The cooler waters off the coast of New Jersey can serve to diminish the energy of storms that have traveled up the eastern seaboard. -
A Brief History of Lake Okeechobee: a Narrative of Confict Alanna L
A Brief History of Lake Okeechobee: A Narrative of Confict Alanna L. Lecher, Ph.D, Lynn University Abstract Lake Okeechobee is Florida’s largest lake, the largest lake in the Southeast United States, and the second largest lake contained entirely within the United States. The history of this inland sea is marked both by natural processes, and more recently human development and intervention. Adventurers can explore this behemoth of a waterway via the Lake Okeechobee Scenic Trail that enriches it, a part of the Florida National Scenic Trail. This paper synthesizes major natural and human-induced perturbations that shaped the lake and ultimately the trail that encircles it to create a narrative of Florida’s great lake. The story of Lake Okeechobee is a story of battles, frst between the land and sea, then between the lake itself and humankind. For the past few centuries Lake Okeechobee’s natural perturbations in water fow and fooding resisted the control of man, until recently when man triumphed, managing to control the fow of water in and out of the lake. Unfortunately, with this new found control a new bio- ecological threat in the form of harmful algal blooms has emerged, which again threatens the health and livelihood of South Floridians. Currently there are new eforts that seek to restore Lake Okeechobee towards a more natural state in an efort to thwart the blooms. Manuscript It’s a full moon weekend in February and runners lace up their shoes in preparation. They gather in the agricultural town of Clewiston southeast of Lake Okeechobee. -
Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms
FLORIDA HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS 1871-1995: An Historical Survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams '+wcCopy~~ I~BN 0-912747-08-0 Florida SeaGrant College is supported by award of the Office of Sea Grant, NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce,grant number NA 36RG-0070, under provisions of the NationalSea Grant College and Programs Act of 1966. This information is published by the Sea Grant Extension Program which functionsas a coinponentof the Florida Cooperative Extension Service, John T. Woeste, Dean, in conducting Cooperative Extensionwork in Agriculture, Home Economics, and Marine Sciences,State of Florida, U.S. Departmentof Agriculture, U.S. Departmentof Commerce, and Boards of County Commissioners, cooperating.Printed and distributed in furtherance af the Actsof Congressof May 8 andJune 14, 1914.The Florida Sea Grant Collegeis an Equal Opportunity-AffirmativeAction employer authorizedto provide research, educational information and other servicesonly to individuals and institutions that function without regardto race,color, sex, age,handicap or nationalorigin. Coverphoto: Hank Brandli & Rob Downey LOANCOPY ONLY Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms 1871-1995: An Historical survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams Division of Marine and Environmental Systems, Florida Institute of Technology Melbourne, FL 32901 Technical Paper - 71 June 1994 $5.00 Copies may be obtained from: Florida Sea Grant College Program University of Florida Building 803 P.O. Box 110409 Gainesville, FL 32611-0409 904-392-2801 II Our friend andcolleague, Fred Doehringpictured below, died on January 5, 1993, before this manuscript was completed. Until his death, Fred had spent the last 18 months painstakingly researchingdata for this book. -
Storm Modification Although Experts in the Meteorological Field Aren’T Enthusiastic About These Ideas Due to the Inconclusive Results from Project Stormfury
Solving Today’s Hurricane Problem Through Modification Submitted by: Greg Machos Webmaster/Owner www.hurricaneville.com Submitted to: Dr. Stephan Nelson Director of Atmospheric Science National Science Foundation Room 775 4201 Wilson Boulevard Arlington, VA 22230 April 27, 2001 Final Proposal for Business and Professional Writing If found, please return to: Mark Waren Department of English Murray Hall, Room 032 College Avenue Campus, Rutgers University i ABSTRACT This proposal is for a research study that will attempt to combine the best elements of both the federal government and private industry projects on hurricane intensification and modification. There will be a difference in the way a hurricane will be attacked. Rather than trying to attack it through seeding its inner core, this proposal will try to use wind shear at the upper levels to destroy the storm’s vertical structure. Past research has shown that work in this area of study has had positive impacts on hurricane forecasting that ultimately saved lives. Furthermore, technology has improved significantly over the last twenty years and with the tremendous strides made in weather forecasting over the past century, now may be a great time to revisit this kind of research again. Coastal communities in the eastern half of the United States as well as many underdeveloped countries in the Caribbean and Central America are more vulnerable than ever to a major hurricane like Hurricane Andrew in 1992 or Hurricane Mitch in 1998. Hurricane Andrew caused approximately $27 billion dollars in damage after making landfall in South Florida while Hurricane Mitch left an estimated 11,000 people dead from heavy rains over a period of several days.