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Solving Today’s Hurricane Problem Through Modification Submitted by: Greg Machos Webmaster/Owner www.hurricaneville.com Submitted to: Dr. Stephan Nelson Director of Atmospheric Science National Science Foundation Room 775 4201 Wilson Boulevard Arlington, VA 22230 April 27, 2001 Final Proposal for Business and Professional Writing If found, please return to: Mark Waren Department of English Murray Hall, Room 032 College Avenue Campus, Rutgers University i ABSTRACT This proposal is for a research study that will attempt to combine the best elements of both the federal government and private industry projects on hurricane intensification and modification. There will be a difference in the way a hurricane will be attacked. Rather than trying to attack it through seeding its inner core, this proposal will try to use wind shear at the upper levels to destroy the storm’s vertical structure. Past research has shown that work in this area of study has had positive impacts on hurricane forecasting that ultimately saved lives. Furthermore, technology has improved significantly over the last twenty years and with the tremendous strides made in weather forecasting over the past century, now may be a great time to revisit this kind of research again. Coastal communities in the eastern half of the United States as well as many underdeveloped countries in the Caribbean and Central America are more vulnerable than ever to a major hurricane like Hurricane Andrew in 1992 or Hurricane Mitch in 1998. Hurricane Andrew caused approximately $27 billion dollars in damage after making landfall in South Florida while Hurricane Mitch left an estimated 11,000 people dead from heavy rains over a period of several days. While forecasting a hurricane’s storm track and intensity has improved, it has not been able to keep pace with the explosive population growth that has taken place over the past several decades. Efforts are being made into researching hurricane intensity by the federal government. NASA and NOAA have joined forces to investigate tropical storms and hurricanes to see why and how they intensify. There are also studies being done to find out how wind shear affects a hurricane along the coast during landfall. Meanwhile, private industry is making efforts to eradicate hurricanes through the concept of storm modification although experts in the meteorological field aren’t enthusiastic about these ideas due to the inconclusive results from Project Stormfury. i TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….i Table of Contents………………………………………………………………………………………………………ii Table of Figures………………………………………………………………………………………………………..iii Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….1 Coastal Populations Continue To Grow Rapidly….…….……….………………………….2 Improvements In Forecasting Can’t Keep Up….……….……….………………………….3 The Central American Hurricane Problem….…….…………….….……………….…………4 Literature Review……………………………………………………………………………………………………..5 Problem Hurricanes Present To Today’s World……….…………..……………………….5 Early Attempts To Control Hurricanes………………………….………………………………….7 Research Being Done Today……………………………………………………………………………….9 Federal Government Projects…………………….…………………………………………………..9 Government Research Into Hurricane Intensity……………………………………………..9 Shearing A Hurricane Apart…………..………………………………………………………………10 Private Industry Projects…………………….………………….………………….……………….10 Dyn-O-Mat’s Hurricane Fighting Gel…………………………………………………..…………10 Proposal……………………….…………………………………………………………………………………..………12 Budget……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….16 Breakdown…………………………..…………………………………………………………………………16 Budget Justification………………………………………………………………………………………..17 Discussion…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………19 Works Cited..……………………………………………………………………………………………………………20 ii TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 1: Long Term Tropical Activity in the Atlantic (1890-1995)…………….1 Figure 2: Tropical Activity in the Atlantic (1991-2001)…………….…………………..1 Figure 3: Increase in Coastal Populations………………………………………………………..2 Figure 4: Improvement in Forecasting Errors……………..…..……………………………..3 Figure 5: Hurricane Mitch off Coast of Honduras in October, 1998……………..5 Figure 6: Devastation From Hurricane Mitch In Honduras…………………………….6 Figure 7: Process of Orographic Lifting……………………………………………………………..6 Figure 8: Estimated Deaths in Recent Catastrophes……………………………………….7 Figure 9: Wind Reduction in Hurricane Debby………………………………………………….8 Figure 10: NOAA Gulfstream IV Aircraft…………………………………………………………….9 Figure 11: Percentage Breakdown of Proposed Budget……………….………………16 Figure 12: Percentage Breakdown of Facilities Budget……………….……………….16 Figure 13: Percentage Breakdown of Materials Budget……………….……………….17 Figure 14: Total Itemized Cost for Project……………….……………………………………..17 iii INTRODUCTION Over the past five to ten years, forecasters and scientists alike have been warning people living along the East Coast of the United States as well as many of the Caribbean islands in the Atlantic Basin that the Atlantic region is entering a period of increased tropical activity. As depicted in Figure 1, past trends in history have indicated that increased activity occurs every forty years or so. Consequently, forecasters believe that more intense hurricanes will make landfall over the next forty years. Activity has already begun to rise over the past decade. Figure 1: Long Term Tropical Activity in the Atlantic (1890-1995) 25 20 Tropical Number Of 15 Storms Storms Hurricanes 10 5 0 1890 1933 1965 1995 Year Figure 2: Tropical Activity in the Atlantic (1991-2001) 20 15 Number Of Tropical Storms 10 Storms Hurricanes 5 0 1991 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Year Since 1991, there has been a dramatic increase in the number of tropical storms and hurricanes that have developed each year during the hurricane season as shown in Figure 2. Harbingers of such increased activity go as far back as Hurricane Andrew in 1992, which brought some $27 billion dollars in damage to South Florida (Great Storms Collection), Hurricane Opal in 1995, which heavily damaged the Gulf Coast of Florida, and Hurricane Fran in 1996 which caused some $6 billion dollars in damage to Wilimington, North Carolina. Then in 1998, Hurricane Mitch became a catastrophe of enormous proportions in parts of Central America dumping three to six feet of rain in 48 hours (Sarewitz and Pielke 45). One year later, in September, 1999, Hurricane Floyd caused approximately $6 billion dollars in damage from North Carolina to New England. 1 So far, much of the coastal population in the United States has been lucky, but research shows that the next major hurricane to strike a major coastal city could end up costing as much as $80 billion dollars in damage (Mandias, par 5). Meanwhile, coastal populations keep growing and while forecasting hurricanes has improved over the last several decades, it has not been able to keep up with the tremendous growth in population particularly along the coast (Sheets, Danger’s Edge). As a result, forecasters fear that a recipe for disaster may be brewing. Coastal Populations Continue To Grow Rapidly… Many people dream of living along the coast. The beauty and tranquility and tranquility of living near the ocean is very attractive to people who are caught up in the hectic hustle and bustle of everyday life in the cities and the suburbs. While living along the coast may sound enticing, the fact still remains that coastal life isn’t always calm and serene. It is often marred by coastal storms such as hurricanes, which claim many lives and cause billions in property damage periodically. For instance, Hurricane Andrew killed 65 people and caused $27 billion dollars in damage after it rolled through the Bahamas, South Florida, and Louisiana in August, 1992 (Great Storms Collection). Nevertheless, populations continue to experience explosive growth along our coastlines. For example, in the four coastal counties of New Jersey, which include Monmouth, Ocean, Atlantic, and Cape May, the number of residents grew from 1.3 million to 1.6 million between 1980 and 1993 (Insurance Research Council 10). Since 1993, these coastal populations have continued growing as New Jersey has become one of the most densely populated areas in the country (Insurance Research Council 10). Furthermore, since 1960, coastal populations across the United States have grown from about 175 people per square mile of coastline to about 275 people per square mile of coastline as shown in Figure 3 (http://www.census.gov). Figure 3 Increase in Coastal Populations This change in population is nearly 150% more growth over the past four decades, and that figure is expected to continue rising. By the year 2015, the coastal population per square mile is expected to double that in 1960 as reflected also in Figure 3 (http://www.census.gov). With this kind of growth in coastal population, there will need to be more buildings, roads, and houses. All of this new infrastructure will cost money to insure. Finally, the rate of growth in coastal populations relative to non-coastal populations indicates a trend of more people migrating from inland areas toward the coast (http://www.census.gov). 2 Improvements in Forecasting Can’t Keep Up… Over the past century, there have been a number of significant developments in technology that have helped hurricane forecasting make tremendous strides over the past several decades. The development of both radar and satellite imagery in the 1950s and 1960s really helped weather forecasters monitor hurricanes more effectively (Ahrens 226). Prior to the implementation

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