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Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology FLORIDA COMMISSION ON HURRICANE LOSS PROJECTION METHODOLOGY November 2020 Submission April 30, 2021 Version Florida Hurricane Model 2021a A Component of the CoreLogic North Atlantic Hurricane Model in Risk Quantification and EngineeringTM v21 Submitted under the 2019 Standards of the FCHLPM 1 Irvine, CA Oakland, CA San Diego, CA Boulder, CO Austin, TX April 30, 2021 Irving, TX Milwaukee, WI Floyd Yager, Chair London, UK Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology c/o Donna Sirmons Florida State Board of Administration 1801 Hermitage Boulevard, Suite 100 Tallahassee, FL 32308 Dear Floyd Yager: I am pleased to inform you that CoreLogic, Inc. is ready for the Commission’s review and re-certification of the Florida Hurricane Model component of its Risk Quantification and EngineeringTM v21 software for use in Florida. As required by the Commission, enclosed are the data and analyses for the General, Meteorological, Vulnerability, Actuarial, Statistical, and Computer Standards, updated to reflect compliance with the Standards set forth in the Commission’s Report of Activities as of November 1, 2019. In addition, the CoreLogic Florida Hurricane Model has been reviewed by professionals having credentials and/or experience in the areas of meteorology, engineering, actuarial science, statistics, and computer science, as documented in the signed Expert Certification (Forms G-1 to G-6). We have also completed the Editorial Certification (Form G-7). The following changes were made to the model between the previously accepted submission (Florida Hurricane Model 2019a) and the current submission (Florida Hurricane Model 2021a): 1. The probabilistic hurricane database has been regenerated to be consistent with the National Hurricane Center’s HURDAT2 data set as of April 28, 2020. The stochastic set has been augmented by 500 hurricanes to include hurricanes similar to Hurricane Michael (2018) in northwestern Florida. 2. The storm parameters Rmax, Forward Speed, and Profile Factor have been updated to reflect updates in the HRD HURDAT Reanalysis Project and HURDAT2 data set. Statistical distribution types have been changed to Gumbel for radius of maximum winds, Gamma for forward speed, and Inverse Weibull for the profile factor. 3. The filling rate has been updated to be consistent with the methodology described in Vickery 2005 and to include 1900-2019 hurricanes. 4. The land use / land cover has been updated to the National Land Coverage Database (NLCD) 2016. 5. The vulnerability component of the hurricane model has been updated as follows: the defaults for roof age and roof condition have been updated; and coverage A for condominium policies has been updated. 6. The ZIP Code database, including default year-of-construction and wind-borne debris region status, has been updated to June 2020. CoreLogic is confident that its Florida Hurricane Model is in compliance with the Commission’s standards and is ready to be reviewed by the Professional Team. Sincerely, CoreLogic, Inc. Justin M. Brolley Senior Principal Research Scientist, Model Development, Science and Analytics 2 April 30, 2021 1:00 pm PDT Enclosures: 1. 7 bound copies of the CoreLogic Submission 2. The electronic mail (labeled ‘FCHLPM – CoreLogic 2019’) containing an electronic copy of the CoreLogic Submission (FCHLPM_CoreLogic2019_30April2021.pdf) and the following files: • 2019FormM1_CoreLogic_08April2021.xlsx • 2019FormM3_CoreLogic_27October2020.xlsx • 2019FormV2_CoreLogic_27October2020.xlsx • 2019FormV4_CoreLogic_27October2020.xlsx • 2019FormA1_CoreLogic_19March2021.xlsx • 2019FormA1_CoreLogic_19March2021.pdf • 2019FormA2_CoreLogic_08April2021.xlsx • 2019FormA3_CoreLogic_19March2021.xlsx • 2019FormA4_CoreLogic_19March2021.xlsx • 2019FormA5_CoreLogic_19March2021.xlsx • 2019FormA7_CoreLogic_19March2021.xlsx • 2019FormA8_CoreLogic_19March2021.xlsx ◼ CoreLogic, Inc., • 555 12th Street, Suite 1100 • Oakland, California 94607 USA • Phone 510.285.3956 3 April 30, 2021 1:00 pm PDT The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology Model Submission Checklist 1. Please indicate by checking below that the following has been included in your submission to the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology. Yes No Item X 1. Letter to the Commission X a. Refers to the signed Expert Certification forms and states that professionals having credentials and/or experience in the areas of meteorology, statistics, structural engineering, actuarial science, and computer/information science have reviewed the model for compliance with the standards X b. States model is ready to be reviewed by the Professional Team X c. Any caveats to the above statements noted with a detailed explanation X 2. Summary statement of compliance with each individual standard and the data and analyses required in the disclosures and forms X 3. General description of any trade secret information the modeling organization intends to present to the Professional Team and the Commission X 4. Hurricane Model Identification X 5. Seven Bound Copies (duplexed) X 6. Link emailed to SBA staff containing all required documentation that can be downloaded from a single ZIP file X a. Submission document and Form A-1, Zero Deductible Personal Residential Hurricane Loss Costs by ZIP Code in PDF format X b. PDF submission file supports highlighting and hyperlinking, and is bookmarked by standard, form, and section X c. Data file names include abbreviated name of modeling organization, standards year, and form name (when applicable) X d. Form S-6 (Hypothetical Events for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis), if required, in ASCII and PDF format X e. Forms M-1 (Annual Occurrence Rates), M-3 (Radius of Maximum Winds and Radii of Standard Wind Thresholds), V-2 (Hurricane Mitigation Measures and Secondary Characteristics, Range of Changes in Damage), V-4 (Differences in Hurricane Mitigation Measures and Secondary Characteristics), A-1 (Zero Deductible Personal Residential Loss Hurricane Costs by ZIP Code), A-2 (Base Hurricane Storm Set Statewide Hurricane Losses), A-3 ( Hurricane Losses), A-4 (Hurricane Output Ranges), A-5 (Percentage Change in Hurricane Output Ranges), A-7 (Percentage Change in Logical Relationship to Hurricane Risk), and A-8 (Hurricane Probable Maximum Loss for Florida) in Excel format X f. Form V-3, Hurricane Mitigation Measures and Secondary Characteristics, Mean Damage Ratios and Hurricane Loss Costs (Trade Secret Item), Form V-5, Differences in Hurricane Mitigation Measures and Secondary Characteristics, Mean Damage Ratios and Hurricane Loss Costs (Trade Secret Item), and Form A-6, Logical Relationship to Hurricane Risk (Trade Secret Item), in Excel format of not considered as Trade Secret X 7. All hyperlinks to the locations of forms are functional X 8. Table of Contents X 9. Materials consecutively numbered from beginning to end starting with the first page (including cover) using a single numbering system, including date and time in footnote X 10. All tables, graphs, and other non-text items consecutively numbered using whole numbers, listed in Table of Contents, and clearly labeled with abbreviations defined X 11. All column headings shown and repeated at the top of every subsequent page for forms and tables X 12. Standards, disclosures, and forms in italics, modeling organization responses in non-italics X 13. All graphs and maps conform to guidelines in II. Notification Requirements A.4.e. X 14. All units of measurement clearly identified with appropriate units used X 15. All forms included in submission document as appendix except Trade Secret Items. If forms designated as a Trade Secret Item are not considered as trade secret, those forms are to be included in the submission appendix. X 16. Hard copy documentation identical to electronic version X 17. Signed Expert Certification Forms G-1 to G-7 X 18. All acronyms listed and defined in submission appendix 2. Explanation of “No” responses indicated above. (Attach additional pages if needed.) Form S-6 was submitted in 2010 and can be made available upon request. CoreLogic Florida Hurricane Model Apr. 30, 2021 2021a Model Name Modeler Signature Date 4 April 30, 2021 1:00 pm PDT The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology Model Identification Name of Model and Version: CoreLogic Florida Hurricane Model 2021a Name of Platform: Risk Quantification and Engineering v21 Name of Modeling Organization: CoreLogic, Inc. Street Address: 555 12th Street, Suite 1100 City, State, ZIP Code: Oakland, CA 94607 Mailing Address, if different from above: _______________________________________________________________________ Contact Person: Justin Brolley Phone Number: (510) 285-3962 E-mail Address: [email protected] 5 April 30, 2021 1:00 pm PDT The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology Licenses and Trademarks A number of trademarks and registered trademarks appear in this document. CoreLogic, Inc. acknowledges all trademarks and the rights in the trademarks owned by the companies referred to herein. • CoreLogic, USQUAKE, Risk Quantification and EngineeringTM are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. • Windows™ is a trademark of Microsoft Corporation. • 5-Digit ZIP Code data for the United States, Puerto Rico, and the District of Columbia. Copyright© 2020 HERE All Rights Reserved. 6 April 30, 2021 1:00 pm PDT The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology General Description of Trade Secret Information (Checklist Item #3) The following items are trade secret information that will be presented
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