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Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology

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Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology FLORIDA COMMISSION ON HURRICANE LOSS PROJECTION METHODOLOGY November 2018 Submission March 12, 2019 Revision Florida Hurricane Model 2019a A Component of the CoreLogic North Atlantic Hurricane Model in Risk Quantification and EngineeringTM Submitted under the 2017 Standards of the FCHLPM 1 Irvine, CA Oakland, CA Boulder, CO Austin, TX Westlake, TX March 12, 2019 Madison, WI Milwaukee, WI Floyd Yager, Chair London, UK Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology Paris, France c/o Donna Sirmons Florida State Board of Administration 1801 Hermitage Boulevard, Suite 100 Tallahassee, FL 32308 Dear Floyd Yager: I am pleased to inform you that CoreLogic, Inc. is ready for the Commission’s review and re-certification of the Florida Hurricane Model component of its Risk Quantification and EngineeringTM software for use in Florida. As required by the Commission, enclosed are the data and analyses for the General, Meteorological, Vulnerability, Actuarial, Statistical, and Computer Standards, updated to reflect compliance with the Standards set forth in the Commission’s Report of Activities as of November 1, 2017. In addition, the CoreLogic Florida Hurricane Model has been reviewed by professionals having credentials and/or experience in the areas of meteorology, engineering, actuarial science, statistics, and computer science, as documented in the signed Expert Certification (Forms G-1 to G-6). We have also completed the Editorial Certification (Form G-7). The following changes were made to the model between the previously accepted submission (Florida Hurricane Model 2017a) and the current submission (Florida Hurricane Model 2019a): 1. The probabilistic hurricane database has been regenerated to be consistent with the National Hurricane Center’s HURDAT2 data set as of May 1, 2018. 2. The storm parameters Rmax, Forward Speed, and Profile Factor have been updated to reflect updates in the HRD HURDAT Reanalysis Project and HURDAT2 data set. 3. The vulnerability component of the hurricane model has been updated as follows: vulnerability functions for generic appurtenant structures have been updated to exclude screen enclosures; the defaults for roof age and roof condition have been updated; year bands have been added to accommodate the 2014 and 2017 updates to the Florida Building Code; for manufactured homes, a post-1999 year band has been added, and differentiation by HUD specified zones (Zone II and Zone III) has been incorporated; Monroe County and coastal areas of Palm Beach County have been added to the HVHZ Zone; photovoltaic shingles, ASTM approved underlayments, wood structural panels, and BCEGS classes have been added to the secondary structural modifier options, reflecting changes in the Florida Building Code; and the treatment of unknown structure type for North Florida and for Central and South Florida has been updated to reflect the 2017 FHCF portfolio. 4. The ZIP Code database, including default year-of-construction and wind-borne debris region status, has been updated to August 2018. CoreLogic is confident that its Florida Hurricane Model is in compliance with the Commission’s standards and is ready to be reviewed by the Professional Team. Sincerely, CoreLogic, Inc. Justin M. Brolley Senior Principal Research Scientist, Model Development, Science and Analytics 2 March 12, 2019 4:45 pm PDT Enclosures: 1. 7 bound copies of the CoreLogic Submission 2. The electronic mail (labeled ‘FCHLPM – CoreLogic 2017’) containing an electronic copy of the CoreLogic Submission (FCHLPM_CoreLogic2017_07February2019.pdf) and the following files: • 2017FormM1_CoreLogic_06March2019.xlsx • 2017FormM3_CoreLogic_07February2019.xlsx • 2017FormV2_CoreLogic_07February2019.xlsx • 2017FormV4_CoreLogic_31October2018.xlsx • 2017FormA1_CoreLogic_07February2019.xlsx • 2017FormA1_CoreLogic_07February2019.pdf • 2017FormA2A_CoreLogic_06March2019.xlsx • 2017FormA2B_CoreLogic_06March2019.xlsx • 2017FormA3A_CoreLogic_07February2019.xlsx • 2017FormA3B_CoreLogic_07February2019.xlsx • 2017FormA4A_CoreLogic_07February2019.xlsx • 2017FormA4B_CoreLogic_07February2019.xlsx • 2017FormA5_CoreLogic_07February2019.xlsx • 2017FormA7_CoreLogic_07February2019.xlsx • 2017FormA8A_CoreLogic_07February2019.xlsx • 2017FormA8B_CoreLogic_07February2019.xlsx ◼ CoreLogic, Inc., • 555 12th Street, Suite 1100 • Oakland, California 94607 USA • Phone 510.285.3956 3 March 12, 2019 4:45 pm PDT The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology Model Submission Checklist 1. Please indicate by checking below that the following has been included in your submission to the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology. Yes No Item X 1. Letter to the Commission X a. Refers to the signed Expert Certification forms and states that professionals having credentials and/or experience in the areas of meteorology, statistics, structural engineering, actuarial science, and computer/information science have reviewed the model for compliance with the standards X b. States model is ready to be reviewed by the Professional Team X c. Any caveats to the above statements noted with a detailed explanation X 2. Summary statement of compliance with each individual standard and the data and analyses required in the disclosures and forms X 3. General description of any trade secret information the modeling organization intends to present to the Professional Team and the Commission X 4. Hurricane Model Identification X 5. Seven Bound Copies (duplexed) X 6. Link emailed to SBA staff containing all required documentation that can be downloaded from a single ZIP file X a. Submission document and Form A-1, Zero Deductible Personal Residential Hurricane Loss Costs by ZIP Code in PDF format X b. PDF submission file supports highlighting and hyperlinking, and is bookmarked by standard, form, and section X c. Data file names include abbreviated name of modeling organization, standards year, and form name (when applicable) X d. Form S-6 (Hypothetical Events for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis), if required, in ASCII and PDF format X e. Forms M-1 (Annual Occurrence Rates), M-3 (Radius of Maximum Winds and Radii of Standard Wind Thresholds), V-2 (Hurricane Mitigation Measures and Secondary Characteristics, Range of Changes in Damage), V-4 (Differences in Hurricane Mitigation Measures and Secondary Characteristics), A-1 (Zero Deductible Personal Residential Loss Hurricane Costs by ZIP Code), A-2A (Base Hurricane Storm Set Statewide Hurricane Losses, 2012 FHCF Exposure Data), A-2B (Base Hurricane Storm Set Statewide Hurricane Losses, 2017 FHCF Exposure Data), A-3A (2004 Hurricane Season Losses, 2012 FHCF Exposure Data), A-3B (2004 Hurricane Season Losses, 2017 FHCF Exposure Data), A-4A (Hurricane Output Ranges, 2012 FHCF Exposure Data), A-4B (Hurricane Output Ranges, 2017 FHCF Exposure Data), A-5 (Percentage Change in Hurricane Output Ranges, 2012 FHCF Exposure Data), A-7 (Percentage Change in Logical Relationship to Hurricane Risk), A-8A (Hurricane Probable Maximum Loss for Florida, 2012 FHCF Exposure Data), and A-8B (Hurricane Probable Maximum Loss for Florida, 2017 FHCF Exposure Data) in Excel format X f. Form V-3, Hurricane Mitigation Measures and Secondary Characteristics, Mean Damage Ratios and Hurricane Loss Costs (Trade Secret Item), Form V-5, Differences in Hurricane Mitigation Measures and Secondary Characteristics, Mean Damage Ratios and Hurricane Loss Costs (Trade Secret Item), and Form A-6, Logical Relationship to Hurricane Risk (Trade Secret Item), in Excel format of not considered as Trade Secret X 7. All hyperlinks to the locations of forms are functional X 8. Table of Contents X 9. Materials consecutively numbered from beginning to end starting with the first page (including cover) using a single numbering system, including date and time in footnote X 10. All tables, graphs, and other non-text items consecutively numbered using whole numbers, listed in Table of Contents, and clearly labeled with abbreviations defined X 11. All column headings shown and repeated at the top of every subsequent page for forms and tables X 12. Standards, disclosures, and forms in italics, modeling organization responses in non-italics X 13. All graphs and maps conform to guidelines in II. Notification Requirements A.4.e. X 14. All units of measurement clearly identified with appropriate units used X 15. All forms included in submission document as appendix except Trade Secret Items. If forms designated as a Trade Secret Item are not considered as trade secret, those forms are to be included in the submission appendix. X 16. Hard copy documentation identical to electronic version X 17. Signed Expert Certification Forms G-1 to G-7 X 18. All acronyms listed and defined in submission appendix 4 March 12, 2019 4:45 pm PDT The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology 2. Explanation of “No” responses indicated above. (Attach additional pages if needed.) Form S-6 was submitted in 2010 and can be made available upon request. CoreLogic Florida Hurricane Model 2019a Mar. 12, 2019 Model Name Modeler Signature Date 5 March 12, 2019 4:45 pm PDT The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology Model Identification Name of Model and Version: CoreLogic Florida Hurricane Model 2019a Name of Platform: Risk Quantification and Engineering Name of Modeling Organization: CoreLogic, Inc. Street Address: 555 12th Street, Suite 1100 City, State, ZIP Code: Oakland, CA 94607 Mailing Address, if different from above: _______________________________________________________________________
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