DOCSLIB.ORG

Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text

Load more

FLORIDA COMMISSION ON HURRICANE LOSS PROJECTION METHODOLOGY November 2018 Submission March 12, 2019 Revision Florida Hurricane Model 2019a A Component of the CoreLogic North Atlantic Hurricane Model in Risk Quantification and EngineeringTM Submitted under the 2017 Standards of the FCHLPM 1 Irvine, CA Oakland, CA Boulder, CO Austin, TX Westlake, TX March 12, 2019 Madison, WI Milwaukee, WI Floyd Yager, Chair London, UK Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology Paris, France c/o Donna Sirmons Florida State Board of Administration 1801 Hermitage Boulevard, Suite 100 Tallahassee, FL 32308 Dear Floyd Yager: I am pleased to inform you that CoreLogic, Inc. is ready for the Commission’s review and re-certification of the Florida Hurricane Model component of its Risk Quantification and EngineeringTM software for use in Florida. As required by the Commission, enclosed are the data and analyses for the General, Meteorological, Vulnerability, Actuarial, Statistical, and Computer Standards, updated to reflect compliance with the Standards set forth in the Commission’s Report of Activities as of November 1, 2017. In addition, the CoreLogic Florida Hurricane Model has been reviewed by professionals having credentials and/or experience in the areas of meteorology, engineering, actuarial science, statistics, and computer science, as documented in the signed Expert Certification (Forms G-1 to G-6). We have also completed the Editorial Certification (Form G-7). The following changes were made to the model between the previously accepted submission (Florida Hurricane Model 2017a) and the current submission (Florida Hurricane Model 2019a): 1. The probabilistic hurricane database has been regenerated to be consistent with the National Hurricane Center’s HURDAT2 data set as of May 1, 2018. 2. The storm parameters Rmax, Forward Speed, and Profile Factor have been updated to reflect updates in the HRD HURDAT Reanalysis Project and HURDAT2 data set. 3. The vulnerability component of the hurricane model has been updated as follows: vulnerability functions for generic appurtenant structures have been updated to exclude screen enclosures; the defaults for roof age and roof condition have been updated; year bands have been added to accommodate the 2014 and 2017 updates to the Florida Building Code; for manufactured homes, a post-1999 year band has been added, and differentiation by HUD specified zones (Zone II and Zone III) has been incorporated; Monroe County and coastal areas of Palm Beach County have been added to the HVHZ Zone; photovoltaic shingles, ASTM approved underlayments, wood structural panels, and BCEGS classes have been added to the secondary structural modifier options, reflecting changes in the Florida Building Code; and the treatment of unknown structure type for North Florida and for Central and South Florida has been updated to reflect the 2017 FHCF portfolio. 4. The ZIP Code database, including default year-of-construction and wind-borne debris region status, has been updated to August 2018. CoreLogic is confident that its Florida Hurricane Model is in compliance with the Commission’s standards and is ready to be reviewed by the Professional Team. Sincerely, CoreLogic, Inc. Justin M. Brolley Senior Principal Research Scientist, Model Development, Science and Analytics 2 March 12, 2019 4:45 pm PDT Enclosures: 1. 7 bound copies of the CoreLogic Submission 2. The electronic mail (labeled ‘FCHLPM – CoreLogic 2017’) containing an electronic copy of the CoreLogic Submission (FCHLPM_CoreLogic2017_07February2019.pdf) and the following files: • 2017FormM1_CoreLogic_06March2019.xlsx • 2017FormM3_CoreLogic_07February2019.xlsx • 2017FormV2_CoreLogic_07February2019.xlsx • 2017FormV4_CoreLogic_31October2018.xlsx • 2017FormA1_CoreLogic_07February2019.xlsx • 2017FormA1_CoreLogic_07February2019.pdf • 2017FormA2A_CoreLogic_06March2019.xlsx • 2017FormA2B_CoreLogic_06March2019.xlsx • 2017FormA3A_CoreLogic_07February2019.xlsx • 2017FormA3B_CoreLogic_07February2019.xlsx • 2017FormA4A_CoreLogic_07February2019.xlsx • 2017FormA4B_CoreLogic_07February2019.xlsx • 2017FormA5_CoreLogic_07February2019.xlsx • 2017FormA7_CoreLogic_07February2019.xlsx • 2017FormA8A_CoreLogic_07February2019.xlsx • 2017FormA8B_CoreLogic_07February2019.xlsx ◼ CoreLogic, Inc., • 555 12th Street, Suite 1100 • Oakland, California 94607 USA • Phone 510.285.3956 3 March 12, 2019 4:45 pm PDT The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology Model Submission Checklist 1. Please indicate by checking below that the following has been included in your submission to the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology. Yes No Item X 1. Letter to the Commission X a. Refers to the signed Expert Certification forms and states that professionals having credentials and/or experience in the areas of meteorology, statistics, structural engineering, actuarial science, and computer/information science have reviewed the model for compliance with the standards X b. States model is ready to be reviewed by the Professional Team X c. Any caveats to the above statements noted with a detailed explanation X 2. Summary statement of compliance with each individual standard and the data and analyses required in the disclosures and forms X 3. General description of any trade secret information the modeling organization intends to present to the Professional Team and the Commission X 4. Hurricane Model Identification X 5. Seven Bound Copies (duplexed) X 6. Link emailed to SBA staff containing all required documentation that can be downloaded from a single ZIP file X a. Submission document and Form A-1, Zero Deductible Personal Residential Hurricane Loss Costs by ZIP Code in PDF format X b. PDF submission file supports highlighting and hyperlinking, and is bookmarked by standard, form, and section X c. Data file names include abbreviated name of modeling organization, standards year, and form name (when applicable) X d. Form S-6 (Hypothetical Events for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis), if required, in ASCII and PDF format X e. Forms M-1 (Annual Occurrence Rates), M-3 (Radius of Maximum Winds and Radii of Standard Wind Thresholds), V-2 (Hurricane Mitigation Measures and Secondary Characteristics, Range of Changes in Damage), V-4 (Differences in Hurricane Mitigation Measures and Secondary Characteristics), A-1 (Zero Deductible Personal Residential Loss Hurricane Costs by ZIP Code), A-2A (Base Hurricane Storm Set Statewide Hurricane Losses, 2012 FHCF Exposure Data), A-2B (Base Hurricane Storm Set Statewide Hurricane Losses, 2017 FHCF Exposure Data), A-3A (2004 Hurricane Season Losses, 2012 FHCF Exposure Data), A-3B (2004 Hurricane Season Losses, 2017 FHCF Exposure Data), A-4A (Hurricane Output Ranges, 2012 FHCF Exposure Data), A-4B (Hurricane Output Ranges, 2017 FHCF Exposure Data), A-5 (Percentage Change in Hurricane Output Ranges, 2012 FHCF Exposure Data), A-7 (Percentage Change in Logical Relationship to Hurricane Risk), A-8A (Hurricane Probable Maximum Loss for Florida, 2012 FHCF Exposure Data), and A-8B (Hurricane Probable Maximum Loss for Florida, 2017 FHCF Exposure Data) in Excel format X f. Form V-3, Hurricane Mitigation Measures and Secondary Characteristics, Mean Damage Ratios and Hurricane Loss Costs (Trade Secret Item), Form V-5, Differences in Hurricane Mitigation Measures and Secondary Characteristics, Mean Damage Ratios and Hurricane Loss Costs (Trade Secret Item), and Form A-6, Logical Relationship to Hurricane Risk (Trade Secret Item), in Excel format of not considered as Trade Secret X 7. All hyperlinks to the locations of forms are functional X 8. Table of Contents X 9. Materials consecutively numbered from beginning to end starting with the first page (including cover) using a single numbering system, including date and time in footnote X 10. All tables, graphs, and other non-text items consecutively numbered using whole numbers, listed in Table of Contents, and clearly labeled with abbreviations defined X 11. All column headings shown and repeated at the top of every subsequent page for forms and tables X 12. Standards, disclosures, and forms in italics, modeling organization responses in non-italics X 13. All graphs and maps conform to guidelines in II. Notification Requirements A.4.e. X 14. All units of measurement clearly identified with appropriate units used X 15. All forms included in submission document as appendix except Trade Secret Items. If forms designated as a Trade Secret Item are not considered as trade secret, those forms are to be included in the submission appendix. X 16. Hard copy documentation identical to electronic version X 17. Signed Expert Certification Forms G-1 to G-7 X 18. All acronyms listed and defined in submission appendix 4 March 12, 2019 4:45 pm PDT The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology 2. Explanation of “No” responses indicated above. (Attach additional pages if needed.) Form S-6 was submitted in 2010 and can be made available upon request. CoreLogic Florida Hurricane Model 2019a Mar. 12, 2019 Model Name Modeler Signature Date 5 March 12, 2019 4:45 pm PDT The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology Model Identification Name of Model and Version: CoreLogic Florida Hurricane Model 2019a Name of Platform: Risk Quantification and Engineering Name of Modeling Organization: CoreLogic, Inc. Street Address: 555 12th Street, Suite 1100 City, State, ZIP Code: Oakland, CA 94607 Mailing Address, if different from above: _______________________________________________________________________
Recommended publications
  • Historical Changes in the Mississippi-Alabama Barrier Islands and the Roles of Extreme Storms, Sea Level, and Human Activities

    Historical Changes in the Mississippi-Alabama Barrier Islands and the Roles of Extreme Storms, Sea Level, and Human Activities

    HISTORICAL CHANGES IN THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BARRIER ISLANDS AND THE ROLES OF EXTREME STORMS, SEA LEVEL, AND HUMAN ACTIVITIES Robert A. Morton 88∞46'0"W 88∞44'0"W 88∞42'0"W 88∞40'0"W 88∞38'0"W 88∞36'0"W 88∞34'0"W 88∞32'0"W 88∞30'0"W 88∞28'0"W 88∞26'0"W 88∞24'0"W 88∞22'0"W 88∞20'0"W 88∞18'0"W 30∞18'0"N 30∞18'0"N 30∞20'0"N Horn Island 30∞20'0"N Petit Bois Island 30∞16'0"N 30∞16'0"N 30∞18'0"N 30∞18'0"N 2005 2005 1996 Dauphin Island 1996 2005 1986 1986 30∞16'0"N Kilometers 30∞14'0"N 0 1 2 3 4 5 1966 30∞16'0"N 1950 30∞14'0"N 1950 Kilometers 1917 0 1 2 3 4 5 1917 1848 1849 30∞14'0"N 30∞14'0"N 30∞12'0"N 30∞12'0"N 30∞12'0"N 30∞12'0"N 30∞10'0"N 30∞10'0"N 88∞46'0"W 88∞44'0"W 88∞42'0"W 88∞40'0"W 88∞38'0"W 88∞36'0"W 88∞34'0"W 88∞32'0"W 88∞30'0"W 88∞28'0"W 88∞26'0"W 88∞24'0"W 88∞22'0"W 88∞20'0"W 88∞18'0"W 89∞10'0"W 89∞8'0"W 89∞6'0"W 89∞4'0"W 88∞58'0"W 88∞56'0"W 88∞54'0"W 88∞52'0"W 30∞16'0"N Cat Island Ship Island 30∞16'0"N 2005 30∞14'0"N 1996 30∞14'0"N 1986 Kilometers 1966 0 1 2 3 30∞14'0"N 1950 30∞14'0"N 1917 1848 Fort 2005 Massachusetts 1995 1986 Kilometers 1966 0 1 2 3 30∞12'0"N 1950 30∞12'0"N 1917 30∞12'0"N 30∞12'0"N 1848 89∞10'0"W 89∞8'0"W 89∞6'0"W 89∞4'0"W 88∞58'0"W 88∞56'0"W 88∞54'0"W 88∞52'0"W Open-File Report 2007-1161 U.S.
  • Hurricane Katrina and New Orleans: Discursive Spaces of Safety and Resulting Environmental Injustice

    Hurricane Katrina and New Orleans: Discursive Spaces of Safety and Resulting Environmental Injustice

    HURRICANE KATRINA AND NEW ORLEANS: DISCURSIVE SPACES OF SAFETY AND RESULTING ENVIRONMENTAL INJUSTICE A dissertation submitted to Kent State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy by Andrew B. Shears August, 2011 Dissertation written by Andrew B. Shears B.S., Ball State University, 2003 M.S., Ball State University, 2005 Ph.D., Kent State University, 2011 Approved by ____________________________________, Chair, Doctoral Dissertation Committee Dr. James A. Tyner ____________________________________, Members, Doctoral Dissertation Committee Dr. Mandy Munro-Stasiuk ____________________________________ Dr. Robert M. SchwartZ ____________________________________ Dr. Scott C. Sheridan Accepted by ____________________________________, Chair, Department of Geography Dr. Mandy Munro-Stasiuk ____________________________________, Dean, College of Arts and Sciences Dr. Timothy Moerland ii TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES……………………………………………..………………………………………………….iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS………………………………………………………………………………………vi DEDICATION……………………………………………………………………………………………………...vii CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION…………………………………………………………………………………..1 A. DEFINING ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE………………………………………….3 B. THE GAME PLAN………………………………………………………………………..19 C. METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK……………………………………………..20 II. ABOUT NEW ORLEANS……………………………………………………………………...29 A. THE HISTORY OF NEW ORLEANS……………………………………………….33 B. NEW ORLEANS IN 2005…………….……………………………………………….85 C. CONCLUSION…………………………………………………………………………...111 III. HURRICANE KATRINA……………………………………………………………………..113
  • Hurricane & Tropical Storm

    Hurricane & Tropical Storm

    5.8 HURRICANE & TROPICAL STORM SECTION 5.8 HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM 5.8.1 HAZARD DESCRIPTION A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or sub-tropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation. Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes are all considered tropical cyclones. These storms rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere around the center and are accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds (NOAA, 2013). Almost all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) form between June 1 and November 30 (hurricane season). August and September are peak months for hurricane development. The average wind speeds for tropical storms and hurricanes are listed below: . A tropical depression has a maximum sustained wind speeds of 38 miles per hour (mph) or less . A tropical storm has maximum sustained wind speeds of 39 to 73 mph . A hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 74 mph or higher. In the western North Pacific, hurricanes are called typhoons; similar storms in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean are called cyclones. A major hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 111 mph or higher (NOAA, 2013). Over a two-year period, the United States coastline is struck by an average of three hurricanes, one of which is classified as a major hurricane. Hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions may pose a threat to life and property. These storms bring heavy rain, storm surge and flooding (NOAA, 2013). The cooler waters off the coast of New Jersey can serve to diminish the energy of storms that have traveled up the eastern seaboard.
  • Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms

    Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms

    FLORIDA HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS 1871-1995: An Historical Survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams '+wcCopy~~ I~BN 0-912747-08-0 Florida SeaGrant College is supported by award of the Office of Sea Grant, NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce,grant number NA 36RG-0070, under provisions of the NationalSea Grant College and Programs Act of 1966. This information is published by the Sea Grant Extension Program which functionsas a coinponentof the Florida Cooperative Extension Service, John T. Woeste, Dean, in conducting Cooperative Extensionwork in Agriculture, Home Economics, and Marine Sciences,State of Florida, U.S. Departmentof Agriculture, U.S. Departmentof Commerce, and Boards of County Commissioners, cooperating.Printed and distributed in furtherance af the Actsof Congressof May 8 andJune 14, 1914.The Florida Sea Grant Collegeis an Equal Opportunity-AffirmativeAction employer authorizedto provide research, educational information and other servicesonly to individuals and institutions that function without regardto race,color, sex, age,handicap or nationalorigin. Coverphoto: Hank Brandli & Rob Downey LOANCOPY ONLY Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms 1871-1995: An Historical survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams Division of Marine and Environmental Systems, Florida Institute of Technology Melbourne, FL 32901 Technical Paper - 71 June 1994 $5.00 Copies may be obtained from: Florida Sea Grant College Program University of Florida Building 803 P.O. Box 110409 Gainesville, FL 32611-0409 904-392-2801 II Our friend andcolleague, Fred Doehringpictured below, died on January 5, 1993, before this manuscript was completed. Until his death, Fred had spent the last 18 months painstakingly researchingdata for this book.
  • Plant Communities of Selected Dunes and Sandy Areas of Florida - As Laboratories for High School Biology

    Plant Communities of Selected Dunes and Sandy Areas of Florida - As Laboratories for High School Biology

    PLANT COMMUNITIES OF SELECTED DUNES AND SANDY AREAS OF FLORIDA - AS LABORATORIES FOR HIGH SCHOOL BIOLOGY By WILLIAM YANCEY BENNETT A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE COUNCIL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF EDUCATION UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA June, 1961 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The writer wishes to thank Prof. Erdman West for valuable assistance in plant identification. Sincere ap- preciation is due Dr. N. E. Bingham, chairman of the super- visory committee, for his direction and advice during the preparation of this work. Gratitude is extended to Dr. E. 3. Ford, of the supervisory committee, for his advice on special botanical problems and for his criticism of the manuscript* The author is indebted to other members of the supervisory committee, Drs. Douglas E. 3cates, Clara M. Olson and Robert D. Powell for their constructive criticism of the manuscript. Especial gratitude is expressed for the late Dr. Leon N. Henderson, whose interest and encouragement were so val- uable to the writer. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ii LIST OF TABLES v LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS . vi Chapter I. INTRODUCTION 1 t T Statement of the Problem Limitations and Definition of Terms Selection of Areas Plan of Dissertation II. ORIGIN OF FLORIDA SANDS . 9 Geological History Soil Types III. FINDINGS . « 25 Nature of a Plant Community Specific Plant Communities Samples of Vegetational Communities Summary IV. PLANT COMMUNITIES USED AS LABORATORIES 103 Introduction Facts to be Investigated in All Plant Communities Some Observable Factors Found in Plant Communities Equipment to be Included in Preparations for Activities Planning a Field Trip Summary iii Page Chapter 7.
  • FSU ETD Template

    FSU ETD Template

    Florida State University Libraries Electronic Theses, Treatises and Dissertations The Graduate School 2017 Crawl Out through the Fallout?: Civil Defense, the Cold War, and American Memory Matthew Byrne Storey Follow this and additional works at the DigiNole: FSU's Digital Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected] FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF ARTS AND SCIENCES “CRAWL OUT THROUGH THE FALLOUT?” CIVIL DEFENSE, THE COLD WAR, AND AMERICAN MEMORY By MATTHEW BYRNE STOREY A Thesis submitted to the Department of History in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts 2017 Matthew Byrne Storey defended this thesis on March 24, 2017 The members of the supervisory committee were: Jennifer Koslow Professor Directing Thesis Michael Creswell Committee Member Jonathan Grant Committee Member The Graduate School has verified and approved the above-named committee members, and certifies that the thesis has been approved in accordance with university requirements. ii For my parents iii TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Figures ............................................................................................................................. v Abstract ..................................................................................................................................... vi 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................. 1 2. THE OFFICIAL NARRATIVE OF CIVIL DEFENSE ........................................................
  • The Hurricane-Tornado

    The Hurricane-Tornado

    July 1965 John S. Smith 453 THEHURRICANE-TORNADO JOHN S. SMITH Weather Bureau Forecast Center, Chicago, 111. ABSTRACT Climatological data in recent years have become sufficient for the further study of tornadoes which occur in hurricane systems. Several characteristics of the hurricane tornado are determined from data for an 8-yr. period by plotting the center positions of each hurricane and its associated tornadoes. The data show: (1) a comparison betweenhurricane and non-hurricane tornadoes; (2) a “Significant Sector” fortornado-genesis; (3) a “Preferred Quadrant” of the hurricane for tornado-genesis; (4) the mostfavorable time of dayfor tornado occurrence; (5) tornado frequencies with,respect to various speeds and distances of the hurricane on and off shore; (6) a tenative hurricane model. 1. INTRODUCTION the “Preferred Quadrant.” Other significant patterns are established from the relationship of the tornado to the Although considerable research has been done on the hurricane. forecasting problemspresented byboth tornadoes and hurricanes, relatively little investigation has been made 2. GENERALCLIMATOLOGY intothe forecasting problems of tornadoesassociated with hurricanes. In this study of the hurricane-tornado Of 15 hurricanes that entered the United States from problem,a climatological analysishas been made by the Gulf of Mexico andthrough the Atlantic Coastal plottingthe center position of eachhurricane and its States, 11 produced tornadoes. Atotal of 98 tornadoes associated tornadoes. was produced during the period from hurricane Connie in August 1955, to hurricane Carla in September 1961. Of Recognition of hurricane tornadoes prior to 1955 was the hurricanes producing tornadoes, the average number apparently limited-unless therehas beensuddena of tornadoes per hurricane is 9, although hurricanes Audrey rash of hurricane-tornadoesin recent years, for since and Carla spawned more than 20 tornadoes each.
  • September Weather History for the 1St - 30Th

    September Weather History for the 1St - 30Th

    SEPTEMBER WEATHER HISTORY FOR THE 1ST - 30TH AccuWeather Site Address- http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=7074 West Henrico Co. - Glen Allen VA. Site Address- (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AccuWeather.com Forums _ Your Weather Stories / Historical Storms _ Today in Weather History Posted by: BriSr Sep 1 2008, 11:37 AM September 1 MN History 1807 Earliest known comprehensive Minnesota weather record began near Pembina. The temperature at midday was 86 degrees and a "strong wind until sunset." 1894 The Great Hinckley Fire. Drought conditions started a massive fire that began near Mille Lacs and spread to the east. The firestorm destroyed Hinckley and Sandstone and burned a forest area the size of the Twin City Metropolitan Area. Smoke from the fires brought shipping on Lake Superior to a standstill. 1926 This was perhaps the most intense brief thunderstorm ever in downtown Minneapolis. 1.02 inches of rain fell in six minutes, starting at 2:59pm in the afternoon according to the Minneapolis Weather Bureau. The deluge, accompanied with winds of 42mph, caused visibility to be reduced to a few feet at times and stopped all streetcar and automobile traffic. At second and sixth street in downtown Minneapolis rushing water tore a manhole cover off and a geyser of water spouted 20 feet in the air. Hundreds of wooden paving blocks were uprooted and floated onto neighboring lawns much to the delight of barefooted children seen scampering among the blocks after the rain ended. U.S. History # 1897 - Hailstone drifts six feet deep were reported in Washington County, IA.
  • Louisiana Hurricane History

    Louisiana Hurricane History

    Louisiana Hurricane History David Roth National Weather Service Camp Springs, MD Table of Contents Climatology of Tropical Cyclones in Louisiana 3 List of Louisiana Hurricanes 8 Spanish Conquistadors and the Storm of 1527 11 Hurricanes of the Eighteenth Century 11 Hurricanes of the Early Nineteenth Century 14 Hurricanes of the Late Nineteenth Century 17 Deadliest Hurricane in Louisiana History - Chenier Caminanda (1893) 25 Hurricanes of the Early Twentieth Century 28 Hurricanes of the Late Twentieth Century 37 Hurricanes of the Early Twenty-First Century 51 Acknowledgments 57 Bibliography 58 2 Climatology of Tropical Cyclones in Louisiana “We live in the shadow of a danger over which we have no control: the Gulf, like a provoked and angry giant, can awake from its seeming lethargy, overstep its conventional boundaries, invade our land and spread chaos and disaster” - Part of “Prayer for Hurricane Season” read as Grand Chenier every weekend of summer (Gomez). Some of the deadliest tropical storms and hurricanes to ever hit the United States have struck the Louisiana shoreline. Memorable storms include Andrew in 1992, Camille in 1969, Betsy in 1965, Audrey in 1957, the August Hurricane of 1940, the September Hurricane of 1915, the Cheniere Caminanda hurricane of October 1893, the Isle Dernieres storm of 1856, and the Racer’s Storm of 1837. These storms claimed as many as 3000 lives from the area....with Audrey having the highest death toll in modern times in the United States from any tropical cyclone, with 526 lives lost in Cameron and nine in Texas. Louisiana has few barrier islands; therefore, the problem of overpopulation along the coast slowing down evacuation times, such as Florida, does not exist.
  • Virginia HURRICANES by Barbara Mcnaught Watson

    Virginia HURRICANES by Barbara Mcnaught Watson

    Virginia HURRICANES By Barbara McNaught Watson A hurricane is a large tropical complex of thunderstorms forming spiral bands around an intense low pressure center (the eye). Sustained winds must be at least 75 mph, but may reach over 200 mph in the strongest of these storms. The strong winds drive the ocean's surface, building waves 40 feet high on the open water. As the storm moves into shallower waters, the waves lessen, but water levels rise, bulging up on the storm's front right quadrant in what is called the "storm surge." This is the deadliest part of a hurricane. The storm surge and wind driven waves can devastate a coastline and bring ocean water miles inland. Inland, the hurricane's band of thunderstorms produce torrential rains and sometimes tornadoes. A foot or more of rain may fall in less than a day causing flash floods and mudslides. The rain eventually drains into the large rivers which may still be flooding for days after the storm has passed. The storm's driving winds can topple trees, utility poles, and damage buildings. Communication and electricity is lost for days and roads are impassable due to fallen trees and debris. A tropical storm has winds of 39 to 74 mph. It may or may not develop into a hurricane, or may be a hurricane in its dissipating stage. While a tropical storm does not produce a high storm surge, its thunderstorms can still pack a dangerous and deadly punch. Agnes was only a tropical storm when it dropped torrential rains that lead to devastating floods in Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia.
  • Seafloor Change Around the Mississippi Barrier Islands, 1920 to 2016—The Influence of Storm Effects on Inlet and Island Morphodynamics

    Seafloor Change Around the Mississippi Barrier Islands, 1920 to 2016—The Influence of Storm Effects on Inlet and Island Morphodynamics

    Seafloor Change Around the Mississippi Barrier Islands, 1920 to 2016—The Influence of Storm Effects on Inlet and Island Morphodynamics By James G. Flocks, Noreen A. Buster, and Owen T. Brenner Open-File Report 2019–1140 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior DAVID BERNHARDT, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey James F. Reilly, Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2020 For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment—visit https://www.usgs.gov/ or call 1–888–ASK–USGS (1–888–275–8747). For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit https://store.usgs.gov/. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this information product, for the most part, is in the public domain, it also may contain copyrighted materials as noted in the text. Permission to reproduce copyrighted items must be secured from the copyright owner. Suggested citation: Flocks, J.G., Buster, N.A., and Brenner, O.T., 2020, Seafloor change around the Mississippi barrier is- lands, 1920 to 2016—The influence of storm effects on inlet and island morphodynamics: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2019–1140, 23 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20191140. ISSN 2331-1258 (online) Acknowledgments This study was funded in part by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Mississippi Coastal Improvement Project and builds upon the recent U.S Geological Survey reports of DeWitt and others (2018) and Buster and others (2017).
  • Characteristics of Tornadoes Associated with Land-Falling Gulf

    Characteristics of Tornadoes Associated with Land-Falling Gulf

    CHARACTERISTICS OF TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH LAND-FALLING GULF COAST TROPICAL CYCLONES by CORY L. RHODES DR. JASON SENKBEIL, COMMITTEE CHAIR DR. DAVID BROMMER DR. P. GRADY DIXON A THESIS Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in the Department of Geography in the Graduate School of The University of Alabama TUSCALOOSA, ALABAMA 2012 Copyright Cory L. Rhodes 2012 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED ABSTRACT Tropical cyclone tornadoes are brief and often unpredictable events that can produce fatalities and create considerable economic loss. Given these uncertainties, it is important to understand the characteristics and factors that contribute to tornado formation within tropical cyclones. This thesis analyzes this hazardous phenomenon, examining the relationships among tropical cyclone intensity, size, and tornado output. Furthermore, the influences of synoptic and dynamic parameters on tornado output near the time of tornado formation were assessed among two phases of a tropical cyclone’s life cycle; those among hurricanes and tropical storms, termed tropical cyclone tornadoes (TCT), and those among tropical depressions and remnant lows, termed tropical low tornadoes (TLT). Results show that tornado output is affected by tropical cyclone intensity, and to a lesser extent size, with those classified as large in size and ‘major’ in intensity producing a greater amount of tornadoes. Increased values of storm relative helicity are dominant for the TCT environment while CAPE remains the driving force for TLT storms. ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to thank my advisor and committee chair, Dr. Jason Senkbeil, and fellow committee members Dr. David Brommer and Dr. P. Grady Dixon for their encouragement, guidance and tremendous support throughout the entire thesis process.